Top 5 movies of Summer 2014

[JasonEvans]

With just 2 weeks until Captain America 2 hits theaters, we are going to launch our annual summer movie poll. Your votes in the poll must be registered by April 3rd, the day before Cap opens.

Seeing as we have done this many times before, almost all of you should know the rules... but just in case there are newbies who are confused, here is how it works.

You will vote for 5 films in the poll. You are attempting to pick the 5 top films at the boxoffice over the summer. We will be measuring boxoffice starting the first week of April and going through the final weekend of September (Sept 28th). It is possible we will be able to declare our top 5 before then, but if it is a close race, it will close on 9/28.

As I said, vote for 5 films. If you vote for 6, you are DQ'd. If you vote for 4, you cannot get 5 right and that is the goal -- 5-for-5. By the way, going 4-for-4 is not better than going 4-for-5, so don't try that trick to look like the winner.

Here are the films that will be in the poll along with their release dates.

Captain America 2: The Winter Soldier (April 4)
Rio 2 (April 11)
Amazing Spider-Man 2 (May 2)
Godzilla (May 16)
X-men: Days of Future Past (May 23)
Million Ways to Die in the West (May 30)
Maleficent (May 30)
Edge of Tomorrow (June 6)
How To Train Your Dragon 2 (June 13)
22 Jump Street (June 13)
Transformers: Age of Extinction (June 27)
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (July 11)
Jupiter Ascending (July 18)
Guardians of the Galaxy (Aug 1)
OTHER - as always, if you want to vote for something else, simply check the "Other" box in the poll and list that film in a post. If you want to vote for Chef or Blended or Neighbors or anything else, that is fine. Just let us know what "Other" is for you.

And, perhaps most importantly, please trash talk amongst your friends and explain your picks.

-Jason "Now, have at it! Enjoy!! And make sure to get your votes in by April 3rd" Evans

[davekay1971]

I went with the all-sequel picks, which I suspect will be a common theme, except for someone trying to outsmart the pool by picking one or two sleepers.

Cap2 seems obvious. While the first didn't do enough box office to make top 5 in it's year, Cap 2 has several big advantages. First, early release date. Second, the trailers look awesome. Third, the big time Avengers bounce with plenty of Avenger yumminess in the form of Scarlett Johannson heavily featured in the trailers (there's also that other Avengers guy played by Sam Jackson who looks to play a sizeable role). Fourth, Robert Redford. Having an acting icon lend some gravity and cred to the movie as an obvious political heavyweight in the trailers is a good thing. Cap2 looks poised to make, by my amateur hour guesswork, in the $250+ range.

Dragon 2 is another obvious pick, IMHO. The first did quite well, was well reviewed, and leaves the sequel with plenty of good will to use. The trailers look gorgeous, and there's plenty of story aching to be told about Hiccup and Toothless. Plus, there's no Pixar giant waiting to scoop up the kiddie bucks on July 4, so Dragon has every animated dollar all to itself from June 13 on. Even better, it's only the 2nd kid release of the summer, with the much-less-anticipated Rio2 in front of it. Needless to say, parents will NOT be tired of taking kids to the animated stuff by the time Dragon hits...and parents like me will be at least as excited as their kids anyway. I mean, How to Train Your Dragon was awesome.

Amazing Spider Man 2: Much like How To Train Your Dragon 2, this movie benefits from some truly warm feelings and goodwill given the quality of the predecessor. Amazing Spider Man was generally regarded as a pleasant surprise for a reboot. Add in Jamie Foxx as your baddie and some nice hints about the coming Green Goblin arch-nemesis, this movie should open very well. If it's a good movie, it could match Cap2 in the $250+ range. It's also got a good window, with a solid month having passed since Cap's release and 3 weeks until X-Men Days of Future Past comes along

Speaking of, Days of Future Past: Benefits from two well received movies plus the long-standing Hugh Jackman Wolviness. Wolverine was pretty well received (although I personally thought it was a hugely missed opportunity), and X-Men First Class was just a very good movie. Conspicuously drawing on the best parts of the first two X-Men movies (Hugh Jackman, Patrick Stewart, and Ian McKellen) and combining them with the pairing that made First Class so good (Michael Fassbender, James McAvoy, and Jennifer Lawrence), putting Bryan Singer back at the helm, and throwing some Peter Dinklage in there just for Game of Thrones geeks like me, makes this an appealing super hero movie in every way. I anticipate a strong opening, and awesome legs...not just on Jennifer Lawrence either.

Number 5 is, as always, the toughest pick for me. I wimped out and went with the other animated movie in Rio 2. Rio was cute, and did well at the box office. I'm not sure that it can do better than the utter crap that will be Transformers: Marky Mark and the Funky Bots, but I can pray. Rio's got the kid market cornered until June 13, and that's probably enough time for some really solid BO, particularly if the movie is good enough to make parents okay with repeat viewings.

ps: Not trying to pick on Mark Wahlberg. He's okay as an actor, definitely a big upgrade from Shia LeBoof. And his family Wahlburgers show is pretty fun (and makes me hungry at each viewing). But I'm beyond done with Transformers movies. I hope America is too, but that may be asking too much. At least Throatybeard can rely on being able to catch it at his local theater, though!

[BD80]

... Here are the films that will be in the poll along with their release dates.

...Jupiter Ascending (July 18) ...

-Jason "Now, have at it! Enjoy!! And make sure to get your votes in by April 3rd" Evans

I suppose I should alert potential voters that Jupiter Ascending - in addition to Mila Kunis and Tatum Channing - has, as a producer ----

Grant Hill !!!!!

I never knew that he was born in Australia and earned a law degree in 1978

[jjasper0729]

Picked the probably obvious ones in Cap2, Dragon2 and Spidey2. The last two were difficult. I went with X-men just for the fan boy audience and how decently received The Wolverine was. But I went off kilter a bit with the Million Ways To Die In The West more as a sleeper since it will get laughs and has Charlize Theron in it.

Of the ones I didn't pic, I think "Dawn" could do ok since "Rise" got a lot of notoriety and was well received as well.

[CameronBornAndBred]

There is a huge gaping hole in the list. No July 4th movies are listed. Not saying they are a wise choice or not, it is just an observation. According to movieinsider.com, these are the movies being released Wednesday the 2nd. From eyeballing it, the sleeper pick I would go with would be the R rated comedy, Tammy, starring Melissa McCarthy, Dan Akroyd, Susan Sarandon, and Kathy Bates. It might be the needed balance for people not into superheroes and stuff being blown up.
Here is the list for the July 4th releases.
http://www.movieinsider.com/movies/july/2014/

[JasonEvans]

So, I see this as a much more difficult year than previous ones. In the past, there were 3 or 4 mortal locks and then only a couple other reasonable contenders for the last spot or two. This year there are a lot more legit contenders (to say nothing of the surprise hit).

I want to take a moment to focus on the sequels. I do this not only because they are some of the strongest contenders to make our list, but also because the fact that the originals have an established boxoffice track record allows us to project a bit about how a sequel will do. I’ll look at them in chronological order:

Captain America 2 - The original made $176.6 million in a summer crowded with comic book superhero movies. That $176 is a big number when you consider that Cap came out in late July, when blockbuster fatigue had set in. It is also harder for films to have strong legs into August and September because everyone gets out of moviegoing mode later in the summer. I think that $176 in late July is the same as a May film making about $210-220 mill. So, props to Cap for the success of the original. But, Cap 2 is not a May movie. It is being released in April, a full month earlier than usual for a film like this. We have to wonder a bit if audiences will be ready for a summer blockbuster in spring. Kids won’t be out of school yet, so don’t expect Cap 2 to post big mid-week numbers. We don’t have much of an April blockbuster track record, but I am tempted to say that it will likely be about the same as being released in late July. So, what else does Cap 2 have going for it? He biggest thing is the so-called Avengers Halo Effect that all Avengers-related films have benefited from since Avengers was such a huge hit. Iron Man 3 made 31% more than Iron Man 2 ($409 mil vs $312 mil), Thor 2 made about 14% more than Thor ($206 mil vs $182 mil). If Cap does somewhere in between those two, like a 22% increase, it will make $215 million. Will that be good enough for the Top 5? I dunno... it would be close but maybe not quite.

Rio 2 - The original made $143.6 mil. If the sequel enjoys a 25% jump, that would take it to $179 mil. It would take a 40% jump to get it over $200 million. I think it is quite possible you will need to make $220 mil to make the top 5 this summer. That would be about a 55% improvement. I know that Rio 2 comes out very early in the season, but I actually think that could hurt it a bit as kids are not out of school yet when it is released and by the time they get out in mid-late May, Rio 2 may feel stale and old news. Despite a relative lack of kid-friendly competition this summer, I give Rio 2 one only a tiny chance to make the Top 5.

Amazing Spider-Man 2 – The original made $262 million. That would seem to make this flick a mortal lock to be in our Top 5. But, it is worth noting that since the original Sam Rami Spider-man made a staggering $403 mil in 2002, the webslinger has made less and less with each successive movie. Spider-Man 2 made $373 mil (-7.4%), Spider-Man 3 made $336 mil (-9.9%), and then Amazing Spider-Man made $262 mil (-22%). If ASM2 is down 10% it still makes $235 mil, which should be enough to be in the top 5. But, if it suffers another 20% drop, it probably won’t make it. Another thing worth noting – this film is going to feature three villains (Electro, GGoblin, and Rhino). In the past, multiple villains have been a bad thing for film quality when it comes to superhero movies.

X-Men DOFP – X-Men: First Class made $146.4 mil at the boxoffice. Like Rio 2, the sequel needs to improve by something like 50% to get to where it likely needs to be to make our top 5. Last summer’s Wolverine film did fine, $132 mil, but was nowhere near being a top 5 contender and this film will heavily feature Wolverine. So, what makes anyone think DOFP has a shot at the top 5? Well, First Class was loved by fans and critics (87% on RottenTomatoes) and is considered one of the better comic book movies of the past decade. That kind of good will can really help a sequel. Plus, Jennifer Lawrence and Michael Fassbender have become even bigger stars since First Class was made and you can bet Lawrence will be very prominently featured in the advertising. Comic book fans who know a bit about the storyline are excited about it and this film has very strong buzz. It may be a bit of a stretch, but I think this flick has a real chance to make our top 5.

How to Train Your Dragon 2 – The original made $217 million. If you did not know that fact, you would probably have bet it made well over $300 million. It is a widely loved film and did big business on DVD while also spawning a cartoon TV series. Audiences and critics adored this flick and I think everyone expects the sequel to do even more business. A mere 10% increase would put it close to $240 million. In a summer with very few family films, I will be shocked if HTTYD2 does not make well over $250 million.

22 Jump Street – 21 Jump Street made $138 mil, a big figure for an action comedy but not nearly in the league with big summer blockbusters. Critics and audiences liked it and there is excitement about the sequel. Channing Tatum and Jonah Hill are even bigger stars today than they were then and co-directors Phil Lord and Chris Miller are hot since their work on The Lego Movie. It is worth noting that the original was a spring release and summer movies are always going to do better than ones released in March. It would need to do about 60% more than the original to be in the ballpark of the top 5, but that is not impossible. One thing that may work against it is that this seems to be a crowded summer for raunchy comedy with A Million Way To Die In the West and Neighbors opening before Jump Street and Tammy opening just a few weeks after it. I’d rate this sequel a bit of a longshot to reach our top 5.

Transformers 4 – It has been just 3 years since Dark of the Moon hit theaters and yet this is being considered somewhat of a reboot for the Transformers franchise. Mark Whalberg is a bigger star than loopy Shia LaBeouf and he has some action star credibility, which could help this flick. The previous three Transformer movies all made well over $300 million despite never being loved by critics. This franchise just seems to click with a large number of moviegoers. Dark of the Moon made $352 million. Age of Extinction could be down 33% from that and still make $230+ million. As others have noted, there are no blockbusters scheduled for July 4th weekend, meaning Transformers 4 could have 2 weekends of being the unchallenged big daddy in theaters. I have never been a fan of these films, but anyone who does not consider this film a lock for the top 5 is probably making a mistake.

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes - Rise of the POA was a critical darling that made $176 million in 2011 despite being an August release. Dawn gets a much more friendly release the week after July 4th. It is also common for a sequel coming from a really well-liked film to do bigger business than the original. A 20% increase would get Dawn to a little more than $210 million, which should make it a Top 5 contender. But, there are negatives here too. There is a new director on board (Matt Reeves of Cloverfield replacing Rupert Wyatt) and James Franco won't appear in this film. The biggest star this time around is Gary Oldman, who is not exactly a "I need to see his film!" kind of Hollywood stud. Still, the early trailers look strong and Rise built up a lot of good will. Mark Whalberg's poorly reviewed Planet of the Apes film in 2001 made $180 million (inflation adjusted, that is north of $250 million in today's moviegoing dollars), which shows there is real consumer appetite for this franchise. I don't think I will pick this film, but I won't be shocked if it makes the top 5.

Well, there you have it... my research on the sequels. I suspect there are a couple non-sequels that could be real players in our contest as well. Like I said, I think this is the hardest year yet to pick a Top 5.

-Jason "the fact that we are starting the contest early, in April, makes it even herder to know how buzz will go for these films" Evans

[JasonEvans]

I can't believe that we only have one voter so far picking Godzilla. Folks, I don't know if it will be in our Top 5 (I am debating voting for it) but I will be anyone right here, right now, that it will make at least $175 million at the boxoffice.

-Jason "I am telling you, this is the hardest contest we have ever had. I can make a great case for at least 8 films and there may only be 1 or 2 mortal locks" Evans

[mph]

I went with Captain America, Spider-man, How to Train Your Dragon, Transformers, and Million Ways to Die. Seth MacFarlane isn't my cup of tea, but a lot of people love summer comedies and Seth MacFarlane, so that's my number 5. I think it makes in into the 5 slot if the reviews are positive.

The only stone-cold lock I see is How to Train Your Dragon. It wouldn't shock me if I went anywhere from 2 for 5 to 5 for 5.

[NashvilleDevil]

Went with Captain 2, Train your Dragon 2, XMen, Transformers and Guardians of the Galaxy. I know nothing about Guardians other than Chris Pratt bulked up for the role and it has an Aug 1st release which means it probably will not have the legs necessary but there is always one surprise and despite McFarlane's movie having the lovely Ms. Theron this may be the summer a random comedy does not crack the top 5.

[Jarhead]

Wow, those comic book movies. Can't vote for any of them. I quit reading comic books before I got into high school, and I have read none of them since then. Why see them in movies? http://crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/wizard.gif

[JasonEvans]

Wow, those comic book movies. Can't vote for any of them. I quit reading comic books before I got into high school, and I have read none of them since then. Why see them in movies? http://crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/wizard.gif

You understand there is no requirement that you actually attend the films for which you vote, right? Ha!

Look, I think the previous 3 Transformer movies were total junk and I would never pay a cent to watch them, but I voted for them and they each easily sailed into the Top 5 (not saying this year's one will). Sadly, quality and coherence are not prerequisites of huge boxoffice success.

-Jason "new trailer for XM:DOFP came out today... stunningly cool. May change the way I end up voting in this poll" Evans


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6acRHWnfZAE&feature=youtu.be

[JasonEvans]

Ok voters... explain yourselves about this:

Film #1 is a sequel to a movie that made $143 mil at the boxoffice and was a decent 72% on Rotten Tomatoes.
Film #2 is a sequel to a movie that made $176 mil at the boxoffice and was stronger at 82% on Rotten Tomatoes.

And yet, with 22 people voting so far, we have 6 votes for Film #1 (Rio 2) and just 1 vote for Film #2 (Dawn of the Planet of the Apes). Can someone explain this to me?

-Jason "Rio is not even on my radar of possibilities for this contest while Apes is a strong contender to get one of my 5 votes" Evans

[davekay1971]

Ok voters... explain yourselves about this:

Film #1 is a sequel to a movie that made $143 mil at the boxoffice and was a decent 72% on Rotten Tomatoes.
Film #2 is a sequel to a movie that made $176 mil at the boxoffice and was stronger at 82% on Rotten Tomatoes.

And yet, with 22 people voting so far, we have 6 votes for Film #1 (Rio 2) and just 1 vote for Film #2 (Dawn of the Planet of the Apes). Can someone explain this to me?

-Jason "Rio is not even on my radar of possibilities for this contest while Apes is a strong contender to get one of my 5 votes" Evans

Timing, but on further consideration my reasoning may be way off.

Rio 2 has a solid month as the only kid fare in the box office. That's a lot of time to make its money.

However...

Apes has only Guardians of the Galaxy, which is a big question mark at this point, following it as legitimate direct competition, and there's 3 weeks between Apes and Guardians. Also, Apes comes out in mid July while the previous Apes made $176mil as an August release. Finally, Rio 2 is coming out in April when the kids are still in school, so that month with the box office all to itself may not be as helpful as it could have been.

So, um, yeah, Rio may have not been a good choice. Ah well...why break my perfect streak of never getting 5 out of 5?

[JasonEvans]

Interesting...

I just got a series of screening invitations to Seth Rogan's new comedy Neighbors. Universal is starting "Word of Mouth" screenings for this flick a full month before it is due to be released in theaters. They will be holding 3 separate WOM screenings in Atlanta alone over the next month. That is a lot and is somewhat unusual for a summer film, many of which do not get screened until 2 or 3 days prior to opening. It says to me that Universal feels very confident that word of mouth will be quite strong on this flick. I suspect Universal thinks Neighbors has a chance to be this summer's raunchy comedy hit like Bridesmaids, Hangover, Wedding Crashers, Ted, and others have been in recent years.

Hmmm...

On a similar subject, Disney/Marvel are doing Captain America 2 screenings this week, a full week earlier than usual for a blockbuster. That also says to me that they think it is a high quality flick that will have strong buzz.

-Jason "can a comedy slip into the Top 5 this summer? I thought the one that had a chance was Seth McFarlane's Million Ways... but maybe it is the other Seth who has the hit on his hands" Evans

http://filmonic.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/neighbors-zac-efron-seth-rogan.jpg

[Udaman]

Rats. I still don't like that the April movies are included in this. Makes it too long (and adds a true contender that will definitely dance around the edges). Given that, I'm going to do my top 5 both with and without Captain America (just because). Also, please note, I just hit send on my picks, but had accidentally made a mistake. So I'm correcting that with this.

First my locks. There are three:

1. How to Train Your Dragon 2. No other kid movies to compete with it. A first movie that was really loved, and a movie that has unbelievable visual images (that will thrive on the 3-D audience). This movie makes $250M for sure.

2. Spider Man (reboot) 2. Every Spider Man has made over $225M. There's no competition for it for a while.

3. Transformers. I HATE taking this movie, but these always do well. Always. They get the young boy audience, and all have made over $300M

Now my semi-lock. Just 1

4. Captain America. I was not going to vote for this, but then the reviews started coming in. It's at 93% on Rotten Tomatoes. That's impressive. It will get good word of mouth. There is no competition for a month. The only thing hurting it is the fact that it a) comes out in April, so there's some uncertainty as to how many people go see it while school is still in and b) Captain America tends to be the most cerebral of the Marvel heroes, which may keep people away (my kids aren't dying to see Captain America, like they were for Iron Man). But I'm going with the strong reviews and the Avengers hangover effect. I really wish, though, that I didn't have to vote for this one.

So now #5. There are three (and only 3) choices if you ask me: A Million Ways to Die in the West, Godzilla and Planet of the Apes. In the end, I went with Godzilla.

Why? Three reasons. First (and most important) the trailer looks outstanding. I don't like watching trailers (I like being spoiler free), and I saw this one by accident, not knowing what it was about. It showed the guys jumping out of the airplane to try and attack it, with their point of view and terrified breaths. It was edge of your seat stuff. Second - history. The first Godzilla came out in 1998. It was truly awful. I mean awful, as in the first Hulk movie awful. Matthew Broderick was the lead, there was terrible writing and mediocre special effects at best. That awful movie made $136M. So, that's bad, right? Well, if you assume 3% annual inflation, then $136M in 1998 equates to $218M today. Oh, and this one is coming out in 3-D. That's another 15% at least. That's $250M. And did I mention the first one was awful? If this one is even remotely good (and the trailers look outstanding), then it could definitely make the $250M mark, which puts it in the Top 5. Third - Bryan Cranston. He wouldn't get involved in something awful.

So my top 5 are: Captain, Spidey, Transformers, Dragons and Godzilla.

If Captain America wasn't there, it would be really tough to try and pick the 5th, because I think Apes and West are going to finish very close to each other. I think I would have to go with Planet of the Apes. I think A Million Ways to Die in the West is going to break $200M. People love Seth, and they loved Ted, and it's a raunchy summer comedy with great actors. But there's a ceiling for shows like this. You can't take little kids (and enough people took little kids to see Ted), and the over 65 crowd won't go, so it's college kids through 60. The ceiling is about $210M, and that won't be enough to crack the top 5, or, I think, to beat either Godzilla or Apes.

But, I will say this. Those 7 films will finish in the top 7. Period.

What won't?

1) Rio 2. Anyone picking this is throwing their chances away. The first one didn't do that well, and there's almost no buzz in my family to go see the next one (and the previews have looked thin at best). I think it will make $160-$200M at the most, and that won't be enough.

2) X-Men. I'm stoked to see it, but the last X-Men movie got great reviews and only made $147M. Then The Wolverine came out last summer (also to decent reviews) and made $132M. It's hard to see a movie that now (clearly) has a limited fan base break the $225M barrier.

3) 22 Jump Street or Neighbors. Not enough of a broad base demand for either.

4) Edge of Tomorrow. Too much like Oblivion. Sci Fi Action thrillers don't make $150M (see District 9, Total Recall, Elysium)

The top 7 (in some order) will be Captain America, Spiderman2, How to train your dragon, Transformers, Godzilla, Planet of the Apes, A Million Ways to Die.

So what about sleepers? 22 Jump Street I would put in there. As JE also stated - the stars are huge, and the first one did well. I just think it will be slightly too raunchy to make it (plus not enough women will want to go). For me the real Sleeper isn't on the list. It's "Heaven is for Real." The book sold a ton, and this one plays to the (gigantic) religious audience out there. The Passion of the Christ made $300M. I don't think will get anywhere close, but if it gets good reviews, and the churches start encouraging their patrons to go see it, and it gets good word of mouth, it could easily exceed $100M, and stay in the theaters for a long time. Super Sleeper for sure.....but has biggest upside.

Finally, the movies I'm most excited to see are Captain America, Godzilla, 22 Jump Street, A Million Ways to Die in the West, Edge of Tomorrow (Groundhog Day with guns) and Planet of the Apes.

[Highlander]

Rats. I still don't like that the April movies are included in this. Makes it too long (and adds a true contender that will definitely dance around the edges). Given that, I'm going to do my top 5 both with and without Captain America (just because). Also, please note, I just hit send on my picks, but had accidentally made a mistake. So I'm correcting that with this.

First my locks. There are three:

1. How to Train Your Dragon 2. No other kid movies to compete with it. A first movie that was really loved, and a movie that has unbelievable visual images (that will thrive on the 3-D audience). This movie makes $250M for sure.

2. Spider Man (reboot) 2. Every Spider Man has made over $225M. There's no competition for it for a while.

3. Transformers. I HATE taking this movie, but these always do well. Always. They get the young boy audience, and all have made over $300M

Now my semi-lock. Just 1

4. Captain America. I was not going to vote for this, but then the reviews started coming in. It's at 93% on Rotten Tomatoes. That's impressive. It will get good word of mouth. There is no competition for a month. The only thing hurting it is the fact that it a) comes out in April, so there's some uncertainty as to how many people go see it while school is still in and b) Captain America tends to be the most cerebral of the Marvel heroes, which may keep people away (my kids aren't dying to see Captain America, like they were for Iron Man). But I'm going with the strong reviews and the Avengers hangover effect. I really wish, though, that I didn't have to vote for this one.

So now #5. There are three (and only 3) choices if you ask me: A Million Ways to Die in the West, Godzilla and Planet of the Apes. In the end, I went with Godzilla.

Why? Three reasons. First (and most important) the trailer looks outstanding. I don't like watching trailers (I like being spoiler free), and I saw this one by accident, not knowing what it was about. It showed the guys jumping out of the airplane to try and attack it, with their point of view and terrified breaths. It was edge of your seat stuff. Second - history. The first Godzilla came out in 1998. It was truly awful. I mean awful, as in the first Hulk movie awful. Matthew Broderick was the lead, there was terrible writing and mediocre special effects at best. That awful movie made $136M. So, that's bad, right? Well, if you assume 3% annual inflation, then $136M in 1998 equates to $218M today. Oh, and this one is coming out in 3-D. That's another 15% at least. That's $250M. And did I mention the first one was awful? If this one is even remotely good (and the trailers look outstanding), then it could definitely make the $250M mark, which puts it in the Top 5. Third - Bryan Cranston. He wouldn't get involved in something awful.

So my top 5 are: Captain, Spidey, Transformers, Dragons and Godzilla.

If Captain America wasn't there, it would be really tough to try and pick the 5th, because I think Apes and West are going to finish very close to each other. I think I would have to go with Planet of the Apes. I think A Million Ways to Die in the West is going to break $200M. People love Seth, and they loved Ted, and it's a raunchy summer comedy with great actors. But there's a ceiling for shows like this. You can't take little kids (and enough people took little kids to see Ted), and the over 65 crowd won't go, so it's college kids through 60. The ceiling is about $210M, and that won't be enough to crack the top 5, or, I think, to beat either Godzilla or Apes.

But, I will say this. Those 7 films will finish in the top 7. Period.

What won't?

1) Rio 2. Anyone picking this is throwing their chances away. The first one didn't do that well, and there's almost no buzz in my family to go see the next one (and the previews have looked thin at best). I think it will make $160-$200M at the most, and that won't be enough.

2) X-Men. I'm stoked to see it, but the last X-Men movie got great reviews and only made $147M. Then The Wolverine came out last summer (also to decent reviews) and made $132M. It's hard to see a movie that now (clearly) has a limited fan base break the $225M barrier.

3) 22 Jump Street or Neighbors. Not enough of a broad base demand for either.

4) Edge of Tomorrow. Too much like Oblivion. Sci Fi Action thrillers don't make $150M (see District 9, Total Recall, Elysium)

The top 7 (in some order) will be Captain America, Spiderman2, How to train your dragon, Transformers, Godzilla, Planet of the Apes, A Million Ways to Die.

So what about sleepers? 22 Jump Street I would put in there. As JE also stated - the stars are huge, and the first one did well. I just think it will be slightly too raunchy to make it (plus not enough women will want to go). For me the real Sleeper isn't on the list. It's "Heaven is for Real." The book sold a ton, and this one plays to the (gigantic) religious audience out there. The Passion of the Christ made $300M. I don't think will get anywhere close, but if it gets good reviews, and the churches start encouraging their patrons to go see it, and it gets good word of mouth, it could easily exceed $100M, and stay in the theaters for a long time. Super Sleeper for sure.....but has biggest upside.

Finally, the movies I'm most excited to see are Captain America, Godzilla, 22 Jump Street, A Million Ways to Die in the West, Edge of Tomorrow (Groundhog Day with guns) and Planet of the Apes.

That's interesting, since you actually picked Million ways to die in your top 5 and not Transformers...

[CameronBornAndBred]

Also, please note, I just hit send on my picks, but had accidentally made a mistake. So I'm correcting that with this.

First my locks. There are three:

3. Transformers. I HATE taking this movie, but these always do well. Always. They get the young boy audience, and all have made over $300M



That's interesting, since you actually picked Million ways to die in your top 5 and not Transformers...
I'm assuming that was the mistake he mentioned.

[Highlander]

I'm assuming that was the mistake he mentioned.

Missed that. Sorry.

[mkirsh]

My votes:
Cap2 – Personally thought the first one was the weakest of all the films in the Avengers universe, but the halo effect of the Avengers franchise, the early release with limited competition, and the heavy marketing push make me think this will be in the top 5.

Spider Man 2 – hard to bet against this franchise, even with villain overkill (which likely means contrived plot)

Dragon 2 – really light year for kids films. I think this will have a big box office take as there is not much else out there.

Transformers whatever – I’m fairly confident in two things here: 1) this movie will suck and 2) it will make a ton of money.

X-Men – this is the pick that I don’t feel good about. People love these movies, but it hasn’t translated to the box office very well. I’m worried about Apes without Franco, I don’t think Seth McFarlane can actually carry his own movie as a lead, I thought 21 Jump Street actually was pretty funny but 22 has risk of being a total dud. Godzilla is probably the one I will regret, but I have hard time seeing how this will be that much better than Pacific Rim/Battleship/other “exploding monster” movie (copyright Throaty whom I know can’t help himself and is reading this thread and getting furious.) So going with X-Men and crossing my fingers.

[JasonEvans]

I am at the point of having 8 contenders...

The locks:
Most of you have identified these-- Transformers 4, How To Train Your Dragon 2, and Amazing Spider-Man 2. I see each of them as mortal locks to make at least $240+ million.

The contenders:
I see all of these making at least $175 million with potential to be in the mid-200s, perhaps even higher if they really catch on with the public. Deciding which ones will is tremendously hard!

Cap 2, Godzilla, XM: DOFP, Million Ways, and Dawn of the Apes.

I think Guardians has a chance but it is opening too late in the summer for me to pick it.

-Jason "I know everyone is loading up on Cap 2, but April is a tough time to release a $220+ mil blockbuster. The mid-week numbers will be half of what a comparible May-July release makes" Evans

[brevity]

Surprised Jason hasn't put up Hollywood Stock Exchange numbers, so I guess I will. I don't know how the following numbers translate into box office, but at least they provide comparative value.

$252.80 Amazing Spider-Man 2 (May 2)
$236.44 Captain America 2: The Winter Soldier (April 4)
$229.86 X-Men: Days of Future Past (May 23)
$229.66 Transformers: Age of Extinction (June 27)
$193.19 How to Train Your Dragon 2 (June 13)
$165.80 Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (July 11)
$161.15 Godzilla (May 16)
$160.61 Guardians of the Galaxy (Aug 1)
$123.23 Maleficent (May 30)
$121.72 22 Jump Street (June 13)
$115.57 Edge of Tomorrow (June 6)
$111.28 Rio 2 (April 11)
$103.82 Million Ways to Die in the West (May 30)
$89.27 Jupiter Ascending (July 18)

Other notable films
$99.06 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (Aug 8)
$86.41 Transcendence (April 18)
$81.97 The Erotic Adventures of Hercules (July 25)
$74.61 Neighbors (May 9)
$73.91 Sin City: A Dame to Kill For (Aug 22)
$73.75 Think Like a Man Too (June 20)
$72.84 Planes: Fire and Rescue (July 18)
$64.58 The Expendables 3 (Aug 15)
$62.39 Tammy (July 2)
$56.33 The Purge: Anarchy (July 18)
$54.87 Sex Tape (July 25)
$54.01 The Fault in Our Stars (June 6)
$51.68 Blended (May 23)
$50.09 Million Dollar Arm (May 16)


-Jason "I know everyone is loading up on Cap 2, but April is a tough time to release a $220+ mil blockbuster. The mid-week numbers will be half of what a comparible May-July release makes" Evans

History says he's right. April (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/month/?mo=04&sort=gross&order=DESC&p=.htm) doesn't offer many box office hits at the summer level. Fast Five -- essentially a May film released one week early -- seems like an anomaly. August (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/month/?mo=08&sort=gross&order=DESC&p=.htm) is better, but if you look at the past few years, not by much.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I know everyone is loading up on Cap 2, but April is a tough time to release a $220+ mil blockbuster. The mid-week numbers will be half of what a comparible May-July release makes
If it doesn't make it, I vote that we leave any April movies out of the Summer voting next year. I'm not voting for it simply because I'm not in a Summer mood yet. I'm still waiting for Spring.

[El_Diablo]

Jason, stop sandbagging and just pick the same five that everyone else is picking! :)

[JasonEvans]

Jason, stop sandbagging and just pick the same five that everyone else is picking! :)

I did... Sigh.

I can't even tell you how badly I wanted to vote for Apes or Godzilla, but I just could not do it. Too much uncertainty about Godzilla (it will need to be really good) and I think Apes faces an uphill battle because there is no meaningful star associated with it. I suspect both of them will make a lot of money, but I don't think they will catch the 5 I picked. In the end, I went with the 5 most popular picks: Cap 2, Spidey 2, XMen 5 or 6 or whatever, Dragon 2, and Transformers 4.

As an aside, I think we will see more $175+ mill films this summer than ever before. I fully expect there to be 8-10 movies that at least come close to the $200 mill mark in boxoffice.

-Jason "this year, the trailers look better and the concepts seem more bankable than in the past" Evans

[CameronBornAndBred]

Even though it will surely keep me from winning, I can't vote for a movie that won't even be in the theaters by the time that Summer rolls around, which is Captain America.
My five are

Transformers
Spiderman
Planet of Apes
Tame Your Dragon
And my sleeper comedy hit pick, Tammy.

[JasonEvans]

94.87% of us were correct.

Captain America 2 opened to $96+ million, a huge number. Every single film that has opened north of $90 million has made at least $234 million at the boxoffice. Even with weaker midweek numbers due to everyone still being in school, I cannot imagine Cap 2 making less than $250, which should be more than enough to make our top 5.

-Jason "1 down, 4 to go" Evans

[JasonEvans]

So, my one question about Cap 2 had been whether the early release date (more spring than summer) would negatively impact the mid-week results. After all, it is a lot harder for kids to get out to see a flick during the school year versus the summer. Plus, there aren't as many families on vacation to check out a film mid-week.

Well, it turns out Cap 2 is doing just fine mid-week. It did $6.2 mil on Monday and $6.9 mil on Tuesday. Those are both in line with what a $95 mil opening film should do mid-week. By comparison, when Iron Man opened with $98 mil in 2008, it did $6.9 and $6.5 mil on the Monday Tuesday after the opening weekend. So, Cap 2 is tracking pretty much in line with the original Iron Man (which went on to make $318 mil).

-Jason "Cap 2 will probably be north of $160 million by the time this coming weekend is done" Evans

[JasonEvans]

I voted for How To Train Your Dragon 2, heck almost all of us did. I am sure it will be a big hit.

But I am freaking mad at the trailers. The latest one gives away the entire plot for the movie. I bet I could write a plot synopsis that would be darn close to correct from watching this thing.

The really frustrating thing is that with a sequel like this, you don't have to give away a lot. Show us Toothless and Hiccup having some fun and you have probably convinced everyone to show up already. The original was fabulous with a truly clever plot. We don't need to be convinced that the sequel has a great plot, we already assume it.

Sigh... such a pity. Here it is. Feel free to watch if you want to be able to talk about the movie while not bothering to see it.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Q50qp9ujAHE

-Jason "the sheep at the end was a funny image -- though I am sure they will cram that image down our throats for the next two months until it is released" Evans

[Olympic Fan]

Earlier this week, I went to see Captain America 2 ... enjoyed the film, but I was blown away (not in a good way) by the barrage of trailers before the film.

I expect 4-5 trailers these days ... this film was preceded by 13 -- I kid you not -- 13 trailers. Got to see plugs for:

X-men, Maleficent, Transformers, Guardians of the Galaxy, Godzilla, Spider-Man, Jupiter Ascending, Edge of Tomorrow, Under the Skin, Lucy, 22 Jump Street, Teenage Mutant Turtles and The Expendables 3 ... amazing, no trailer for Transcendence, which has been bombarding me on TV for the last two weeks.

Can't say that any made a big impression -- Guardians looked funny, Lucy intriguing. I thought they showed way too much of the title character in the Godzilla trailer. Now I've seen the monster (which is bigger and scarier than any previous Godzilla), I don't feel a need to see the film.

[JasonEvans]

Under the Skin, Lucy

Are you sure you did not see a trailer for one of these and think it was both? Scarlett Johansson in a low-budget flick where she uses her beauty to hide chemically/alien enhanced abilities.

-Jason "Scarlett is crazy busy this summer -- she's in Cap 2, Under The Skin, Lucy, and Chef (which looks wonderful)" Evans

[Reisen]

I predict "Neighbors" will be this summers "The Hangover". It won't break into the top 5, though.

[Olympic Fan]

Are you sure you did not see a trailer for one of these and think it was both? Scarlett Johansson in a low-budget flick where she uses her beauty to hide chemically/alien enhanced abilities.

-Jason "Scarlett is crazy busy this summer -- she's in Cap 2, Under The Skin, Lucy, and Chef (which looks wonderful)" Evans

Well, I didn't have a notebook and I was trying to reconstruct from memory. It's possible I saw just 12 trailers and got confused with the two Scarlett movies .... No, I just went to IMDB and watched the trailers from Under the Skin and Lucy ... and I did see both of them before Captain America.

BTW: In Under the Skin, Scarlett is an alien who preys on hitchhikers in Scotland. Fair enough. But while watching the trailer, IMDB suggests links to "If you liked this, here are some other films you may like."

One of the links to a similar film that Under the Skin was ... Love Actually???!!!

Edit: Okay, I went back to check and what I thought was a link to Love Actually was actually a freeze frame of a title card that said "from the creator of Love Actually" and the link was to the film "About Time" ... it still doesn't seem like a good fit, but it makes a little more sense.

[dball]

Are you sure you did not see a trailer for one of these and think it was both? Scarlett Johansson in a low-budget flick where she uses her beauty to hide chemically/alien enhanced abilities.

-Jason "Scarlett is crazy busy this summer -- she's in Cap 2, Under The Skin, Lucy, and Chef (which looks wonderful)" Evans

Lucy looks interesting but I like a lot of Besson's work. Doubt it could make the Top 5 but trailer was intriguing. Scarlett was great in Cap2.

[JasonEvans]

It does not look good for blazindw, davekay1971, Jim3k, Lord Ash, luburch, PSurprise, toughbuff1, and YmoBeThere. Rio 2 opened with just $39 million. In fact, it wasn't even the #1 movie at the boxoffice this weekend. That honor went to Cap2, which did just over $41 million. Cap2 only fell 56% from its opening weekend number, which is great staying power for a film like this. The Cap2 weekday numbers Wed and Thurs were not as good as I had expected, I think the non-summer start is going to impact things a bit for this flick, but the weekend is quite good and there is no question at this point that CAp2 is going to, at least, do something close to $250 mil.

As for Rio2, it seems destined to be about a $120 -$130 mil movie, maybe a bit higher if it shows unusually long legs, but it is not going to be much of a threat to make our Top 5 of Summer.

-Jason "we've got a couple weeks off now, until ASM2 on May 2nd. I don't think Transcendence or anything else opening over the next couple weeks will really make an impact on our contest" Evans

[Udaman]

Rio2 made the mistake of coming out when it did. Needed to move to a good summer weekend when there wasn't HTTYD2 coming in the next 2 weeks.

That aside....we have (I think) our first true Blackhorse contender in a few weeks.....Neighbors. It's at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and people are saying that it is raunchy and hysterical. It opens on May 9th and has no real competition until May 30th. If it gets good word of mouth, and more good ratings, it could do big business over Memorial Day weekend. Still don't think it makes the top 5, but it might crack the top 7 (and I didn't think any film had a chance to do that other than Cap2, Spidey, Transformers, HTTYD2, Godzilla, Million Ways and Planet).

[JasonEvans]

Cap 2 held up very nicely in its third weekend. It is still the #1 movie in theaters and only fell 35.5% from last weekend. It made $26.6 million and has now passed the $200 mill mark at $201.5 million. It is headed to somewhere north of $250 million and a certain spot in our Top 5.

Rio 2 held up nicely with just a 42.8% drop from its opening weekend, but still looks like a huge longshot to make even $150 million. It made $22.5 million this weekend and sits at $75.3 million.

Transcendence proved to be yet another Johnny Depp bomb, making just $11 million. If you look at his movies, he hasn't starred (not including voice work in Rango) in a really good movie in about a decade (depends on what you think of Public Enemies). At this point, I have learned to expect Johny Depp movies to stink and then I am pleasantly surprised if they even come close to making sense.

-Jason "two weeks until Spidey... that's when things will really heat up" Evans

[kshepinthehouse]

Rio 2 sucked. Couldn't even finish watching it

[YmoBeThere]

It does not look good for blazindw, davekay1971, Jim3k, Lord Ash, luburch, PSurprise, toughbuff1, and YmoBeThere. Rio 2 opened with just $39 million. In fact, it wasn't even the #1 movie at the boxoffice this weekend.

My tourney brackets rarely survive the first weekend, why should this be any different?

[Reisen]

That aside....we have (I think) our first true Blackhorse contender in a few weeks.....Neighbors. It's at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and people are saying that it is raunchy and hysterical. It opens on May 9th and has no real competition until May 30th. If it gets good word of mouth, and more good ratings, it could do big business over Memorial Day weekend. Still don't think it makes the top 5, but it might crack the top 7 (and I didn't think any film had a chance to do that other than Cap2, Spidey, Transformers, HTTYD2, Godzilla, Million Ways and Planet).


I predict "Neighbors" will be this summers "The Hangover". It won't break into the top 5, though.

You and I think alike. I think it beats Million Ways easily, and narrowly beats Godzilla and Planet. My prediction is it either comes in 6th after X-Men, or possibly takes the 5th spot (after the big 4).

[Olympic Fan]

You and I think alike. I think it beats Million Ways easily, and narrowly beats Godzilla and Planet. My prediction is it either comes in 6th after X-Men, or possibly takes the 5th spot (after the big 4).

Really?

The trailer for Neighbors makes it look awful to me ... but maybe because I'm an old fart and don't find the [premise that a fraternity moves next store to a normal couple and ruins their life to be a bit funny.

[BD80]

Really?

The trailer for Neighbors makes it look awful to me ... but maybe because I'm an old fart and don't find the [premise that a fraternity moves next store to a normal couple and ruins their life to be a bit funny.

Come on ... various instances of Seth Rogan being launched around like a crash-test dummy ... that there's funny.

[Olympic Fan]

Come on ... various instances of Seth Rogan being launched around like a crash-test dummy ... that there's funny.

Put is this way ... Seth Rogan has never made me laugh before ... not once.

[Blue in the Face]

Put is this way ... Seth Rogan has never made me laugh before ... not once.
Given the success of some of his films, doesn't this simply suggest that the preview looking awful to you isn't much of an indication of how successful his latest film might be?

[Reisen]

Really?

The trailer for Neighbors makes it look awful to me ... but maybe because I'm an old fart and don't find the [premise that a fraternity moves next store to a normal couple and ruins their life to be a bit funny.

Interesting. I found all the trailers hilarious, laugh-out-loud funny. Then again, I'm the target audience (34 y/o male).

That said, I wonder if there's a bigger name in comedy right now than Seth Rogen. He's had huge success in animated films (Kung Fu Panda, Monsters vs Aliens, Horton Hears a Who), but also as a comedy lead.

Courtesy of Boxofficemojo, if we exclude animated movies, here are the adjusted domestic box office numbers of his movies:

Knocked Up - $172mm
SuperBad - $140mm
40 y/o Virgin - $136mm
This is the End - $99mm
Green Hornet - $98mm
Pineapple Express - $97mm

He also has a couple of duds in Guilt Trip, Zack and Miri, and Observe & Report. I'm not counting Funny People (which I view as an Adam Sandler flop), You Me & Dupree (which did well, but he had a small part in) and a couple of Indie flicks.

So, who beats him? Will Ferrell? Vince Vaughn? Owen Wilson? Ben Stiller?

I love Stiller, but his star seems to be fading a little after the Fockers series. He's certainly a bigger name historically, but I'm talking about "What have you done for me lately?"

With Wedding Crashers, Old School, and Dodgeball far behind him, "The Internship", "The Dillemna", "The Watch", and "Delivery Man" were not big hits for Vaughn.

Anchorman 2 did well for Ferrell, but a lot of his hits are older now, too, and I'm not sure his more recent stuff is any better than Rogen's.

Who else? Jonah Hill (often in the same movies)? Jason Segel (often in the same movies, more animated stuff)? The Hangover series has the two highest box office comedies, but that's an ensemble cast. Seth MacFarlane is up and coming, and Ted did well, but I'm not that high on a million ways...

Adam Sandler is one of the all time greats, but I don't know if he still has the star power...

[brevity]

Opening this weekend is The Other Woman. It looks like a Gringo version of Chasing Papi, with Kate Upton instead of Sofia Vergara.

It shouldn't make much of a dent in the box office and is rightfully a non-factor in this poll. But I bring it up to ask a question: will it draw a record number of men who *pretend* to reluctantly go along with their wives and girlfriends?

There have been swimsuit models in movies before -- Brooklyn Decker, Cindy Crawford, Kathy Ireland -- but those movies already had a reason for guys to see it (Adam Sandler, action, football). In other words, men could lie. But this is a straight-up chick flick with Kate Upton joining Leslie Mann and the remaining organic fragments of Cameron Diaz (http://cheezburger.com/1255474432). Men have never faced this challenge before. Even Chasing Papi was a tiny film that almost no one saw in the theater; it took on an afterlife from cable. The Other Woman has a studio budget that makes it more, uh, front-loaded.

[gurufrisbee]

Last summer I felt good about my pick:

Lone Ranger

Oops.

[BD80]

Last summer I felt good about my pick:

Lone Ranger

Oops.

I watched it. For free.

I felt cheated.

[YmoBeThere]

Adam Sandler is one of the all time greats, but I don't know if he still has the star power...


My word...I'm not sure what to make of this.

[bjornolf]

Interesting. I found all the trailers hilarious, laugh-out-loud funny. Then again, I'm the target audience (34 y/o male).

That said, I wonder if there's a bigger name in comedy right now than Seth Rogen. He's had huge success in animated films (Kung Fu Panda, Monsters vs Aliens, Horton Hears a Who), but also as a comedy lead.

Courtesy of Boxofficemojo, if we exclude animated movies, here are the adjusted domestic box office numbers of his movies:

Knocked Up - $172mm
SuperBad - $140mm
40 y/o Virgin - $136mm
This is the End - $99mm
Green Hornet - $98mm
Pineapple Express - $97mm

He also has a couple of duds in Guilt Trip, Zack and Miri, and Observe & Report. I'm not counting Funny People (which I view as an Adam Sandler flop), You Me & Dupree (which did well, but he had a small part in) and a couple of Indie flicks.

So, who beats him? Will Ferrell? Vince Vaughn? Owen Wilson? Ben Stiller?

I love Stiller, but his star seems to be fading a little after the Fockers series. He's certainly a bigger name historically, but I'm talking about "What have you done for me lately?"

With Wedding Crashers, Old School, and Dodgeball far behind him, "The Internship", "The Dillemna", "The Watch", and "Delivery Man" were not big hits for Vaughn.

Anchorman 2 did well for Ferrell, but a lot of his hits are older now, too, and I'm not sure his more recent stuff is any better than Rogen's.

Who else? Jonah Hill (often in the same movies)? Jason Segel (often in the same movies, more animated stuff)? The Hangover series has the two highest box office comedies, but that's an ensemble cast. Seth MacFarlane is up and coming, and Ted did well, but I'm not that high on a million ways...

Adam Sandler is one of the all time greats, but I don't know if he still has the star power...

Man, that IS tough. And that doesn't include guys like the Wayans brothers, Chris Tucker, Martin Lawrence, and Dave Chapelle, who all have projects coming out in the near future.

Steve Carell is certainly making an argument too.

The problem I have with Seth as king of comedy is that I don't think he can be THE guy in a film and carry it. Most of his biggest successes he's either a secondary character or has a costar bigger than he is.

[Reisen]

Captain America 2 - The original made $176.6 million in a summer crowded with comic book superhero movies. That $176 is a big number when you consider that Cap came out in late July, when blockbuster fatigue had set in. It is also harder for films to have strong legs into August and September because everyone gets out of moviegoing mode later in the summer. I think that $176 in late July is the same as a May film making about $210-220 mill. So, props to Cap for the success of the original. But, Cap 2 is not a May movie. It is being released in April, a full month earlier than usual for a film like this. We have to wonder a bit if audiences will be ready for a summer blockbuster in spring. Kids won’t be out of school yet, so don’t expect Cap 2 to post big mid-week numbers. We don’t have much of an April blockbuster track record, but I am tempted to say that it will likely be about the same as being released in late July. So, what else does Cap 2 have going for it? He biggest thing is the so-called Avengers Halo Effect that all Avengers-related films have benefited from since Avengers was such a huge hit. Iron Man 3 made 31% more than Iron Man 2 ($409 mil vs $312 mil), Thor 2 made about 14% more than Thor ($206 mil vs $182 mil). If Cap does somewhere in between those two, like a 22% increase, it will make $215 million. Will that be good enough for the Top 5? I dunno... it would be close but maybe not quite.



Friends that have seen it all raved about it. Looks like we have our first entry into the top 5 locked up.


Its not even the first weekend, and its over

Ok, Evans, can we get your updated opinion on where Cap2 will fall? Does it have a top 5 finish wrapped up, like I claimed?

As of last weekend, it stands at approximately $225mm. So, after 4 weekends, it's already beaten your estimate by 5%. Amazing Spider Man 2 drops this weekend, and will surely siphon off a lot of the audience. Word of mouth is still strong, though. Can it get to $240mm? That would have been enough last summer.

[davekay1971]

Man, that IS tough. And that doesn't include guys like the Wayans brothers, Chris Tucker, Martin Lawrence, and Dave Chapelle, who all have projects coming out in the near future.

Steve Carell is certainly making an argument too.

The problem I have with Seth as king of comedy is that I don't think he can be THE guy in a film and carry it. Most of his biggest successes he's either a secondary character or has a costar bigger than he is.

Seth Rogen can't be kind of comedy because he hasn't been notably funny since his supporting role in 40 Year Old Virgin. He has, however, been in some fabulously funny movies with much more talented actors. Of the Seth Rogen movies I've seen, here are the funniest performers in the movie...including Seth.

Knocked Up: Not very funny at any point, really, and Seth was very unfunny. Funniest performers in the movie: Leslie Mann and Ken Jeong

Pineapple Express: James Franco and Danny McBride

40 Year Old Virgin: Seth Rogen, Steve Carrell, and Jane Lynch

Superbad: McLovin'

So, of his movies that I've seen, Rogen gives one of the funniest performances in 1 out of 4. I haven't seen This is the End (yet) or Neighbors (which I think we'll see in theater because it looks really funny), but my understanding is that Rogen gets outshone in both movies by his costars. I think he's a guy that can be good in a supporting performance, but not funny enough to carry a vehicle without alot of help.

Interstingly, I think we're at a point right now where the people with the best comedic timing are the ladies (Leslie Mann, Melissa McCarthy, Kristin Wiig) and guys who aren't tagged as purely comedic actors - like Franco.

Note: The Guardians of the Galaxy trailer looks like it may take the cake as the funniest movie this summer...with the side benefit of featuring the most badass raccoon in movie history.

[JasonEvans]

...with the side benefit of featuring the most badass raccoon in movie history.

Well, his competition is not exactly strong.

http://a.dilcdn.com/bl/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2013/07/Meeko2.jpg
Meeko from Pocahontas

http://statici.behindthevoiceactors.com/behindthevoiceactors/_img/franchises/577.jpg
RJ from Over The Hedge

http://www.mybs.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/Screen-Shot-2014-02-18-at-12.41.02-PM.png
Joey from Dr Doolittle 2

[JasonEvans]

Ok, Evans, can we get your updated opinion on where Cap2 will fall? Does it have a top 5 finish wrapped up, like I claimed?

As of last weekend, it stands at approximately $225mm. So, after 4 weekends, it's already beaten your estimate by 5%. Amazing Spider Man 2 drops this weekend, and will surely siphon off a lot of the audience. Word of mouth is still strong, though. Can it get to $240mm? That would have been enough last summer.

For the record, last summer's top 5 (plus the next closest contender) was...

Iron Man 3 - $409 mil
Despicable Me 2 - $368 mil
Man of Steel - $291 mil
Monsters U - $268 mil
Fast & Fur 6 - $238 mil
Star Trek Into Dark - $228 mil


So, Cap 2 (currently $224.9 mil) is pretty much right at the spot our #6 film was last year. But, it has plenty more room to go. Yes, ASM2 will siphon some audience next weekend but I also bet that some ASM2 sell outs spill over into Cap 2 repeat or first time viewers. Cap 2 only fell off 37% from last weekend, indicating it still has some legs. I expect it to end up with something north of $250 mil in total boxoffice, probably close to $260 mil. I have a hard time thinking that won't be enough to make our top 5.

As an aside, the marketing for Godzilla is going great. I think I mentioned that I was really torn on that one and came darn close to voting for it. A true "monster movie" faces an uphill climb to get all the way to $240+ million to be in our top 5, but Godzilla is going to have a chance I suspect.

-Jason "at this point in the summer, nothing is a lock" Evans

[davekay1971]

Ruh Roh!

Amazing Spider Man 2 with a $92 million weekend, a tomato meter floating in the 50s (low compared to most of the well-performing superhero fare of late), and, more concerning, a B+ cinemascore. Boxofficemojo is projecting a $230 million domestic gross after this weekend's haul. While it's hard to imagine a $90+ million opening not making the top 5, $230 million would put it in the at-risk range (with last summer's Star Trek: Into Self-Contradictory Logic missing the top 5 at $228 million).

[cato]

You know what I can't figure out? Why I voted for Jupiter Ascending. Was it an abiding belief in the Wachowski siblings? A protest vote against the slew of sequals I will never watch? A vote that was intended for Guardians of the Galaxy?

This is going to bother me all summer long. I do hope that the movie is good, though. I am unlikely to see anything else on the list, so it is my only hope for a summer evening at the cinema.

[YmoBeThere]

so it is my only hope for a summer evening at the cinema.

I'm fairly certain I will be skipping the theaters this summer. Unless the heat just wearsme down and I go just for a break.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I'm fairly certain I will be skipping the theaters this summer. Unless the heat just wearsme down and I go just for a break.
When you go, see "Tammy". My vote is counting on you.

[Dukeface88]

You know what I can't figure out? Why I voted for Jupiter Ascending. Was it an abiding belief in the Wachowski siblings? A protest vote against the slew of sequals I will never watch? A vote that was intended for Guardians of the Galaxy?

This is going to bother me all summer long. I do hope that the movie is good, though. I am unlikely to see anything else on the list, so it is my only hope for a summer evening at the cinema.

Because you are looking forward to its inevitable contribution to the Sean Bean death reel?

Because at least one scene apparently involves a skate ramp and a dinosaur?

Because it was produced by Grant Hill? Yes, I know it's not the same one

[JasonEvans]

Through their first 6 days of release (Fri-Wed), ASM 2 is getting beaten pretty soundly by Cap 2. Cap 2 was at $113 mil after 6 days, ASM 2 is at $107 million.

There is little doubt at this point that Cap 2 will finish ahead of Spidey and it is really starting to look like Spidey may only make about $225-235 million, which could put it in real danger of missing the Top 5. I am starting to think that Godzilla could be a strong contender to beat it.

We also appear to have our first raunchy comedy breakout hit of the summer. Neighbors did $2.6 mil from late night Thursday showings and appears to be on its way to about a $40+ mil opening weekend. A movie like this, which should generate huge word of mouth buzz, is not nearly as front-loaded as an action flick so comparing that $40 mil start to the $90+ mil of the superhero movies is sorta meaningless at this point. By comparison, in 2012 Ted made $54 mil its opening weekend and went on to gross $218 million. That same summer, Men In Black 3 also made $54 mil its opening weekend but it ended the summer with just $179 mil in total boxoffice.

Lastly, early tracking is indicating that X-Men Days of Future Past is going to be really big. Hollywood is expecting it to earn around $125 million over the Memorial Day weekend. It if does that, $250+ mil is a lock and it will be in our Top 5, for sure.

-Jason "watch to see how much Spidey drops this weekend -- if it can do more than $40 mil, that will be good but if it is closer to $35 mil, it will likely struggle to make more than maybe $210 or $220 million" Evans

[BD80]

... it is really starting to look like Spidey may only make about $225-235 million, which could put it in real danger of missing the Top 5. I am starting to think that Godzilla could be a strong contender to beat it.

... early tracking is indicating that X-Men Days of Future Past is going to be really big. Hollywood is expecting it to earn around $125 million over the Memorial Day weekend. It if does that, $250+ mil is a lock and it will be in our Top 5, for sure.

-Jason "watch to see how much Spidey drops this weekend -- if it can do more than $40 mil, that will be good but if it is closer to $35 mil, it will likely struggle to make more than maybe $210 or $220 million" Evans

If X-men is in and Spidey is out, it would come down to OlympicFan (Guardians) and NashvilleDevil (Godzilla)

Cap, Train Your Dragon, Transformers, X-men ... Guardians or Godzilla.

[JasonEvans]

If X-men is in and Spidey is out, it would come down to OlympicFan (Guardians) and NashvilleDevil (Godzilla)

Cap, Train Your Dragon, Transformers, X-men ... Guardians or Godzilla.

I think NashvilleDevil is looking really good right about now...

Of course, Transformers could suck so bad that no one goes to see it... in my dreams!

-Jason "I've been itching to pick Godzilla all spring... shoulda pulled the trigger on it (though I doubt I would have dropped Spidey from my list, probably would have dropped Cap" Evans

[Olympic Fan]

I think NashvilleDevil is looking really good right about now...

Of course, Transformers could suck so bad that no one goes to see it... in my dreams!

-Jason "I've been itching to pick Godzilla all spring... shoulda pulled the trigger on it (though I doubt I would have dropped Spidey from my list, probably would have dropped Cap" Evans

Jason,

I thought I was the one who picked Godzilla ... and Nashville Devil picked Guardians?

I only bring this up because this is the first time I've ever been in contention for one of these polls (and I've entered them all). I've always let me own prejudices spoil my choices. This time I swallowed by own interest to vote for trash like Transformers ... if I were to lose because this public finally got tired of that awful series, I would be a very happy loser.

PS I've got to admit that personally, the trailers for Guardians look better than the Godzilla trailers ... and that's coming from someone who actually liked the Matthew Broderick Godzilla (understanding that it was a bad movie -- a classic guilty pleasure). I also think the original Japanese Godzilla (not the Raymond Burr Americanized version) is one of the most significant movies of the 20th Century.

[NashvilleDevil]

Jason,

I thought I was the one who picked Godzilla ... and Nashville Devil picked Guardians?

I only bring this up because this is the first time I've ever been in contention for one of these polls (and I've entered them all). I've always let me own prejudices spoil my choices. This time I swallowed by own interest to vote for trash like Transformers ... if I were to lose because this public finally got tired of that awful series, I would be a very happy loser.

PS I've got to admit that personally, the trailers for Guardians look better than the Godzilla trailers ... and that's coming from someone who actually liked the Matthew Broderick Godzilla (understanding that it was a bad movie -- a classic guilty pleasure). I also think the original Japanese Godzilla (not the Raymond Burr Americanized version) is one of the most significant movies of the 20th Century.

You picked Godzilla and the way the promotion for that movie is going I am regretting not picking it.

[NashvilleDevil]

Jason is better at projecting but I do not think that was the 2nd weekend numbers needed by Spider-Man to make the top 5. After two weekends Captain America was at $158 million and Spidey is currently at $147 million. With Godzilla opening this weekend I think Spidey will be fortunate to get to $220 million. Neighbors may be the raunchy comedy of the summer, like Jason said these type of movies have legs.

[Olympic Fan]

Jason is better at projecting but I do not think that was the 2nd weekend numbers needed by Spider-Man to make the top 5. After two weekends Captain America was at $158 million and Spidey is currently at $147 million. With Godzilla opening this weekend I think Spidey will be fortunate to get to $220 million. Neighbors may be the raunchy comedy of the summer, like Jason said these type of movies have legs.

Rotten Tomatoes agrees with you regarding Spidy 2 vs. Cap America 2 -- suggesting that Spidey is running significantly behind Cap. They do estimate that Spidy finishes at $210-220 million (making it the lowest grossing Spidy film ever, despite the highest prices) ... probably not good enough for our purposes.

The track on Neighbors is interesting. In the first place, its opening weekend was the second-best ever ($51.1 million) for an R-rated summer comedy (trailing only Ted). But RT reported that it was drawing disappointing CinamaScore of B and they wonder if it has legs. Even if it does, its opening is probably not going to propel it into the top 5:

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/neighbors_2014/news/1930392/box_office_guru_wrapup_rowdy_neighbors_steals_1_fr om_spidey/

[Udaman]

The CinemaScore score of B is really, really bad news for Neighbors.

I saw it, and that's about what I would give it as well. It was good. Had its moments. Made me laugh a few times, but it was too long, way too formulaic, pretty unbelievable at parts, and the greatest gag in the film (that happened 4 times) was something that absolutely could never happen (though it did make me laugh). The real issue is that the movie couldn't decide what it wanted to be. Was it a story about 30 somethings struggling with being parents and how that impacts your life? Was it a story about older people wanting to feel young again? Was it a story about college kids facing the fact that once they graduate everything changes? Was it a fraternity riff? Was it about the struggle to define true friendship in trust while in a fraternity? Just tried to do too much. Again, I liked it, but there's no way I would go see it again, and I wouldn't strongly encourage it to many of my friends (would say, wait to rent it or watch it on HBO).

Spiderman I'm still confused about. Thought it was good. Really surprised that it's now almost certainly looking at less than Captain America 2, which I thought was worse.

Those of you congratulating yourselves on getting the top 5 correct (with either Godzilla or Guardians), I would caution. A Million Ways to Die could still make the top 5. So could Apes, or Jupiter Rising. There is plenty of time for a sleeper to sneak in. And I'm still not convinced on X-Men Days of Future Past. The X-Men First Class was an excellent movie, and it didn't break $200M. Maybe a ton of people have watched it on cable and now want to see it, but I'm not sure. I trust JE on his comments about early buzz, but we'll have to see.

I am, however, beginning to think that Spidey 2 won't make the Top 5, and I thought it was an absolute sure thing, as did 95% of us.

[JasonEvans]

I am, however, beginning to think that Spidey 2 won't make the Top 5, and I thought it was an absolute sure thing, as did 95% of us.

I've seen everything from $210 mil to $235 mil as a predicted final total for Spidey 2. Prior to it opening, I would have bet anyone it would make $250 mil so this has to be seen as a disappointment. If it gets to $230+ then I think it will make the top 5, but $215 or $220 may not get it there.

Of course, we have no way of knowing what will be the contenders that could knock it out.

I am loving the Million Ways to Die in the West trailers and they had everyone rolling in the aisles when I saw Neighbors, but this feels like a summer with a lot of strong raunchy comedies (Neighbors, Tammy, 22 Jump Street) and I have to wonder if any of them will capture the public attention for long enough to become a $200+ mill hit. I think Million Ways is a lot more likely to make like $120-$150 mil than it is to make $200 mil.

The early reviews for Godzilla are strong, but not overwhelmingly positive and I think a monster movie has a tough road to get to $220+ million. I mean, the critics just raved about Pacific Rim and it only managed to make $101 million. There is no way a Godzilla movie can be a hit across multiple demographic groups (women and older adults are not going to go see it) unless you have a big name star or director attached. Even with good reviews and Brad Pitt, World War Z only made $201 million last summer and did not crack our Top 5. Most initial estimates are that Godzilla is going to do about a $75 mil opening this week. It will need strong legs to get to $230 mil if it opens below $80 mil.

So, the bottom line about Spidey is that we would be foolish to write it off at this point. While it is doing worse than expected, I still think it has a very good chance to be in our Top 5 of summer.

-Jason "trust me on one thing -- XMen:DOFP is going to be huge. It will open north of $100 million and will make $250+ mil" Evans

[NashvilleDevil]

Does anyone think there is a movie that will make $300 million this summer? My guess would be Transformers because the previous three hit that mark. Reading through this thread, $250 million-$275 million seems to be the ceiling for the contenders.

[JasonEvans]

Does anyone think there is a movie that will make $300 million this summer? My guess would be Transformers because the previous three hit that mark. Reading through this thread, $250 million-$275 million seems to be the ceiling for the contenders.

Hollywood Stock Exchange doesn't seem to think so. The highest priced film this summer is XMen 5 at $239 million (projected boxcoffice through first three weekends of release). If it is at $239 mil after three weekends, it probably ends up in the $280-$290 mil kind of range. They project Transformers to be at $229 mil after three weeks.

-Jason "something will break out and hit $300 mil, but I am not sure what it will be -- I'd put my money on XMen or HTTYDragon 2" Evans

[Olympic Fan]

Those of you congratulating yourselves on getting the top 5 correct (with either Godzilla or Guardians), I would caution. A Million Ways to Die could still make the top 5. So could Apes, or Jupiter Rising. There is plenty of time for a sleeper to sneak in. And I'm still not convinced on X-Men Days of Future Past. The X-Men First Class was an excellent movie, and it didn't break $200M. Maybe a ton of people have watched it on cable and now want to see it, but I'm not sure. I trust JE on his comments about early buzz, but we'll have to see.

I am, however, beginning to think that Spidey 2 won't make the Top 5, and I thought it was an absolute sure thing, as did 95% of us.

as one of those getting excited by the prospects of being in contention, believe me, I'm not already congratulating myself on getting the top 5 correct. A long, LONG way to go. Here's what I AM counting on: I feel confident that Cap'n American will make it ... and I feel certain that the Tranformers (which I hate) will make it. And I trust Jason's prediction that X-Men will make it.

My biggest concern: Godzilla ... I didn't love the preview. And I'm not sold that How To Train Your Dragon 2 will be a $250 million film -- I only picked it because there is almost always a kiddie flick in the top 5 and that's easily the best candidate.

And Spidey still worries me ... the early reports that it's falling short are good, but even $220 million COULD be Top 5.

Could be famous last words, but I have no fear that A Million Ways to Die in the West will top $200 million. And little fear of Jupiter Rising. Neither will touch Spidey ... The Apes could do it.

I'm feeling good about my picks, but not celebrating just yet ...

[Reisen]

IMO, Captain, HTTYD2, and Transformers are the three locks at this point. That leaves two. I agree that XMen is probably a good bet, but I don't think it's a lock. I think there are 4 or 5 films with realistic chances for those last two slots.

[NashvilleDevil]

I am seeing estimates that Godzilla is going to make $65-$75 million. To me that does not bode well for its top 5 chances especially with X-Men coming out next week.

[JasonEvans]

I am seeing estimates that Godzilla is going to make $65-$75 million. To me that does not bode well for its top 5 chances especially with X-Men coming out next week.

All that matters is the legs. Can it hold up over time or does 60% of the audience flee every weekend.

I saw it 4 days ago and I suspect it will not hold up well enough to be in the top 5. It is a bit too much of a "genre" flick to stretch across multiple demographics. It was good, but not great and really suffered from a wooden lead actor as well as a plot that had me scratching my head several times (which is a bad thing as I want to remain locked into the magic of the movie, not constantly stepping back to ask questions about what is going on). Anyway, while I think the opening will be in the $70-80 mill range, I think it won't have the legs to get to $220 mil (which is where I suspect Spidey 2 will end up as the baseline to be in our top 5). I think Godzilla will end up around $185-$200 million.

I will add that there is a scene/moment towards the end of the movie that brought the entire theater to their feet in applause -- one of the best "kill shots" in cinematic history!!

-Jason "we will know a lot more in a couple days when we have a Cinemascore on it" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Hmmmm... I may have written the big fella off too soon.

The overnight screening numbers are in and they came in at $9.3 million. Most folks in Hollywood had expected more like 6.5-7.5 million. Here are some recent comparison numbers of Thursday late-night numbers:


Catching Fire - $25.3 mil
Man of Steel - $21 mil
Iron Man 3 - $15.6 mil
Cap 2 - $10.2 mil
Godzilla - $9.3 mil
Hobbit 2 - $8.8 mil
Spidey 2 - $8.7 mil
Thor 2 - $7.1 mil
Pacific Rim - $3.6 mil

This is not a complete list, obviously, but shows some similar kind of films all released in the past year (reducing the impact of ticket price inflation on the numbers). Given that list, the $9.3 mil start is really, really strong for Godzilla.

Still, no one is expecting it to maintain that lead on Spidey and pull in over $90 mil this weekend. Most analysts still seem to think that we are looking at a start in the mid-70s. If it touches $80 mil, that will be a strong sign. Less than $70 mil would be a real problem in terms of it reaching the Top 5.

-Jason "anyone see it last night and want to talk about it?" Evans

[bjornolf]

Hmmmm... I may have written the big fella off too soon.

The overnight screening numbers are in and they came in at $9.3 million. Most folks in Hollywood had expected more like 6.5-7.5 million. Here are some recent comparison numbers of Thursday late-night numbers:


Catching Fire - $25.3 mil
Man of Steel - $21 mil
Iron Man 3 - $15.6 mil
Cap 2 - $10.2 mil
Godzilla - $9.3 mil
Hobbit 2 - $8.8 mil
Spidey 2 - $8.7 mil
Thor 2 - $7.1 mil
Pacific Rim - $3.6 mil

This is not a complete list, obviously, but shows some similar kind of films all released in the past year (reducing the impact of ticket price inflation on the numbers). Given that list, the $9.3 mil start is really, really strong for Godzilla.

Still, no one is expecting it to maintain that lead on Spidey and pull in over $90 mil this weekend. Most analysts still seem to think that we are looking at a start in the mid-70s. If it touches $80 mil, that will be a strong sign. Less than $70 mil would be a real problem in terms of it reaching the Top 5.

-Jason "anyone see it last night and want to talk about it?" Evans

Where's your review?

[BD80]

... -Jason "anyone see it [Godzilla] last night and want to talk about it?" Evans

I hear the main character really chews up the scenery.

[Olympic Fan]

Still, no one is expecting it to maintain that lead on Spidey and pull in over $90 mil this weekend. Most analysts still seem to think that we are looking at a start in the mid-70s. If it touches $80 mil, that will be a strong sign. Less than $70 mil would be a real problem in terms of it reaching the Top 5.

It looks like everybody underestimated the big guy. Friday night box office numbers topped $38.5 million (the biggest single-day box office of the year) and projections now have Godzilla earning between $93-98 million this weekend:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2014/05/17/friday-box-office-godzilla-stomps-38-5m-could-top-100m/

It had a better first Friday number than Spidy or Cap'n America. Of course it's early and we'll have to see if the big rush is sustained. But it looks like the King of Monsters is going to stomp into our top five.

(Now I have to sweat How to Train Your Dragon 2)

[JasonEvans]

The opening weekend number for Godzilla appears to be $93.2 million. That's better than Spidey ($91.6 mil) though not quite as good as Cap 2 ($95.0 mil). It got a B+ Cinemascore, which is good, but not great. I still wonder how well it will do outside the fanboy world. Next weekend will be a big test.

But there is no question Godzilla is now a very strong contender, very likely to earn more money than Spidey. Is there anyone who had Godzilla but not Spidey in their top 5?

-Jason "I gave a lot of thought toward picking Godzilla, but there is almost no chance I would have dropped Spidey to put the big fella in" Evans

[Olympic Fan]

But there is no question Godzilla is now a very strong contender, very likely to earn more money than Spidey. Is there anyone who had Godzilla but not Spidey in their top 5?

That would be me (everybody else who picked Godzilla also picked Spiderman) ... Feel good about Godzilla and Cap'n America ... I'm confident about X-Men and Transformers ... My biggest worry right now is whether How to Train Your Dragon can top $200 million (which it will need to do to top Spidey).

Excuse me if it sounds like I'm boasting or counting my chickens -- but I've entered every contest we've had without ever winning (I've gotten 4 of 5 a couple of times). I'm so juiced to be in contention for a change that I can't help myself.

[Udaman]

Olympic - there is zero doubt (zero) in my mind that HTTYD2 will be in the top 5. Zero. Only kids movie (really) and huge buzz from kids. Don't let that movie make your nervous.

[JasonEvans]

Olympic - there is zero doubt (zero) in my mind that HTTYD2 will be in the top 5. Zero. Only kids movie (really) and huge buzz from kids. Don't let that movie make your nervous.

I agree. So long as it is not a really lousy film, it is going to make at least $270 million and probably much more than that.

-Jason "I think Oly has a truly excellent shot at going 5-for-5. I think the odds of Spidey holding off Godzilla are close to zero... heck, I am starting to think that Godzilla will top Cap 2" Evans

[DU82]

I agree. So long as it is not a really lousy film, it is going to make at least $270 million and probably much more than that.

-Jason "I think Oly has a truly excellent shot at going 5-for-5. I think the odds of Spidey holding off Godzilla are close to zero... heck, I am starting to think that Godzilla will top Cap 2" Evans

The question is not whether Spidey holds off Godzilla, but if it beats the X-Men. My bet's still on Spidey, which would mean that I'd win. :-)

Regarding children's movies, what is Maleficent considered? Is it a possibility to get the kid's repeat business, or is that solely for animated films?

[Duvall]

Anyway, Jason - any review planned for the seventh installment of Sniktbub and Pals?

[NashvilleDevil]

New trailer out for my long shot pick for the top 5. Have to say this looks like a fun movie.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6lVH3ogPE0w

[CameronBornAndBred]

New trailer out for my long shot pick for the top 5. Have to say this looks like a fun movie.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6lVH3ogPE0w
With an August release, it better have the best opening weekend ever.
Will movie goers hit a Marvel wall? Cap2, Spidey, X-Men, and Guardians, talk about saturating the market.

[JasonEvans]

With an August release, it better have the best opening weekend ever.
Will movie goers hit a Marvel wall? Cap2, Spidey, X-Men, and Guardians, talk about saturating the market.

Well, I dunno about the "best opening ever" but the history on August releases is not great. Only one August release in history has made $230 million, which seems to be about the level most of us think will need to be reached to be in the Top 5. Of course, part of that is inflation as some of the movies I am about to list would easily pass $250 mil in present day dollars if we adjust for inflation.


The Sixth Sense (8/6/99) - $293.5 mil on a $26.8 mil opening... talk about word of mouth powering a film for a big boxoffice run!!
Signs (8/2/02) - $227.9 mil on a $60.1 mil opening... remember when M Night wasn't boxoffice poison?
Bourne Ultimatum (8/3/07) - $227.4 mil on a $69.2 mil opening
Rush Hour 2 (8/3/01) - $226.1 mil on a $67.4 mil opening
The Fugitive (8/6/93) - $183.8 mil on a $23.7 mil opening
Rise of the Planet of the Apes (8/5/11) - $176.7 mil on a $54.8 mil opening
The Help (8/10/11) - $169.7 mil on a $26 mil opening
We're The Millers (8/7/13) - $150.3 mil on a $26.4 mil opening

That's the list of the top August releases.

But, Guardians opens on August 1 and there have been some big movies in late(ish) July too. If we look at the last weekend of July as being almost the same as an August 1 release, then we can add the following films to the list.


Austin Powers in Goldmember (7/26/02) - $213.3 mil on a $73 mil opening
The Simpsons Movie (7/27/07) - $183.1 mil on a $74 mil opening
Planet of the Apes (Marky Mark edition) (7/27/01) - $180 mil on a $68.5 mil opening
Air Force One (7/25/97) - $172.9 mil on a $37.1 mil opening

Still, it is clear that late-July and August movies face a real uphill climb. I won't be all that surprised if Guardians sets a new August opening weekend record (Bourne Ultimatum's $69.2 is the current leader) but even with an opening in the $70 mil range, getting to $225+ million is going to be a challenge. Lots of kids go back to school by the second week of August and mid-week numbers tend to really dry up.

Still, the trailers look very solid and (despite the Marvel name) this does not feel like just another superhero movie. If you think of it as an outer space adventure like Star Trek or Star Wars then there is not much competition this summer. Jupiter Ascending is the only other one of those on tap for this summer... though it you expand the genre to include all sci-fi (non-comic book hero movies) then you add Transformers, Dawn of the Apes, Edge of Tomorrow, and perhaps even Earth to Echo.

Bottom line -- Guardians is probably still a longshot. I suspect Marvel and Disney will be quite pleased if it makes $175 mil or more at the domestic boxoffice. That would be a very nice success for a non-sequel without big stars.

-Jason "I also want to let Duvall and all the other fans of my reviews (all 3 of you) know that I am seeing XMDOFP tonight and will try to post a review in the next 24-36 hours" Evans

[davekay1971]

The scene in the Guardians of the Galaxy trailer where Rocket Raccoon pulls down the crotch of his pants in mid-strut, for some reason, amused me more than about anything else I've seen in a trailer recently (including the Neighbors trailers). I hope that Bradley Cooper absolutely nails the vocals for Rocket. That could easily be one of the weirdest best characters in recent memory.

[JasonEvans]

Here are some recent comparison numbers of Thursday late-night boxoffice:


Catching Fire - $25.3 mil
Man of Steel - $21 mil
Iron Man 3 - $15.6 mil
Cap 2 - $10.2 mil
Godzilla - $9.3 mil
Hobbit 2 - $8.8 mil
Spidey 2 - $8.7 mil
X-Men:DOFP - $8.1 mil
Thor 2 - $7.1 mil
Pacific Rim - $3.6 mil

This is not a complete list, obviously, but shows some similar kind of films all released in the past year (reducing the impact of ticket price inflation on the numbers).

Just got the Thursday late night numbers for X-Men: DOFP and they came in at $8.1 million (I added it to the above list). Hollywood expects this flick to make well over $100 million over the 4-day Memorial Day weekend. This is far and away the best Thursday late opening in X-Men history. X3 did $5.9 mil from its Thursday late night showings and First Class made $3.4 million.

There are many indications this will be a big hit. As I noted in my review, it is a quality flick and will generate good word of mouth. Flixster -- which asks users, "Do you want to see this?" before movies are released -- says this film has the highest "want to see" ratings of any movie in 2014. Fandango said yesterday that 90% of its advance weekend ticket sales are people buying tickets to XM:DOFP.

The other interesting thing to see will be how much Godzilla holds up in its second weekend of release. The fact that it is a holiday weekend should really help. Also, Godzilla negotiated a sweet deal with IMAX which will mean that most IMAX screens across the country will still be showing Godzilla this week and won't show X-Men. 3D and IMAX premiums should continue to boost Godzilla's boxoffice take.

-Jason "Spidey continues to slow -- more on that in a moment" Evans

[JasonEvans]

I am starting to think Spidey 2 may not even be #6 for the summer. Ugh...

As I have mentioned many times in the past, the best way to compare movies released at different times is to look at where they are through comparable numbers of days. This is especially useful if they are released on the same day of the week (which has been the case with all the major pictures this year). It gets skewed when something comes out on a Wednesday, but that has not happened yet this summer.

The most recent numbers we have are boxoffice through Wednesday of this week. That was Spidey's 20th day of release. It was Godzilla's xx day of release and was Cap 2s 48th day.

Through 20 days each, Spidey 2 is at $176.0 million. Cap 2 was at $207.0 mil after its 20th day, a difference of $31 million. That is a giant gulf that will continue to widen with each day (Spidey was anywhere from $1 mil to $700k behind Cap 2 each day of the week this past week).

Godzilla has been out for 6 days and it currently stands at $112.7 mil. Spidey was at $107.1 mil after 6 days of release. With the long Memorial Day weekend likely to boost Godzilla's numbers, it is very hard to see when or how Spidey will make up the rapidly increasing gap it faces compared to Godzilla.

I am really starting to think that Spidey is going to finish with something like $210-$220 million, which just ain't going to be enough to make the top 5 unless something crazy happens.

--Jason "I need to look back over the history of our contests, but I can't ever recall a movie that was this much of a sure thing (90+% of us picked it for the Top 5) failing to make the Top 5" Evans

[JasonEvans]

--Jason "I need to look back over the history of our contests, but I can't ever recall a movie that was this much of a sure thing (90+% of us picked it for the Top 5) failing to make the Top 5" Evans

Ok, you know me... I obsess over this stuff ;)

This year, 94% of us picked Spidey and it is going to miss the top 5. That would appear to be the biggest mistaken pick in our history. I looked at the past 4 years and here is what I found...

In the summer of 2009 (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?15790-Top-Movies-of-the-Summer/page7&highlight=movies), the biggest miss was Wolverine. 54% of us picked it and it came in 7th.

2010 was the year (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?21113-Top-Summer-Movies-2010/page10&highlight=summer) with a couple big misses. Shrek Forever After was picked by almost 53% of us and Robin Hood had the support of 43% of the folks in our contest. Also intriguing when looking back on that year is that only 3 people (5% of voters) were smart enough to trust Christopher Nolan and vote for Inception. I am proud to say I was one of them and it easily made the top 5, earning $292 million.

The summer of 2011 (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?25363-Top-boxoffice-hits-of-Summer-2011-%28new-and-revised!!%29/page10&highlight=summer) was the year a bunch of us went 5-for-5 so there were no big surprises. Kung Fu Panda 2, selected by 44% of us, was the biggest miss.

In 2012 (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?28365-Top-Movies-of-Summer-%28poll%29/page12&highlight=summer), the biggest miss was Men in Black 3, which 66% of us supported in the vote.

In the summer of 2013 (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?31196-Top-5-Movies-of-Summer/page10&highlight=movies), we had a pretty big miss in Star Trek:Into Darkness. It was picked by 79% of us and came in 6th place. I don't think most folks considered it a flop or a disappointment though as it made close to $230 million. It was just bigfooted by Fast/Furious 6.

-Jason "I would have probably put big money on Spidey 2 making at least $230 million... I was wrong!" Evans

[Udaman]

Yep. And anyone who didn't pick X-Men is out. It's great and the theater was packed. I will definitely see it again. It's going to finish 1 or 2 overall.

[NashvilleDevil]

Godzilla is looking at $38.5 million this weekend for a two week total of $156 million. Don't know what that means for our contest but that's a significant drop.

[Olympic Fan]

Godzilla is looking at $38.5 million this weekend for a two week total of $156 million. Don't know what that means for our contest but that's a significant drop.

Agreed. Godzilla had a big drop (although the two week total I'm seeing is $157.6 million). Either way, that's $10 million more than Spidey did in its first two weeks ($146.2). And after this weekend, the race should be Spidey at $186 million and the King of Monsters at $157 in less than half as many weeks.

For the contest, looking very much like X-Men and Cap'n America will be ahead of Godzilla and Spidey in that order (among films released). The question is whether there will be one, two, three movies that can bump and of those four down. I'm confident there will be at least one (Transformers) and maybe two (How to Train Your Dragon 2). Will there be a third to top $200 million and make a run?

[NashvilleDevil]

1. Captain America 2 $253,988,000
2. Amazing Spider-Man 2 $187,100,000
3. Godzilla $156,793,000
4. Rio 2 $122,348,000
5. Neighbors $116,908,000
6. X-Men $111,000,000

Maleficent and A Million Ways to Die in the West open this weekend. I figure X-Men will pass or be be close to passing Godzilla for 3rd place after this weekend. I still do not see a movie that will crack $300 million this summer which would be the first time since 2001 that happened.

[Olympic Fan]

Not sure this belongs here, but I ran across a couple of box office items that I thought were interesting:

-- I know our contest is for domestic box office only, but I occasionally check the international numbers too. I saw an item where Disney's Frozen just moved into the all-time world-wide top five with $1.219 billion -- trailing only Avatar, Titanic, The Avengers and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows II. Apparently, Frozen is a mega-hit this spring in Japan, closing in on $194 million there.

-- Obviously, all the moves at or near the top are recent. I found a listing of the top 10 all-time domestic box office products adjusted for inflation. It's very eye-opening: 1. Gone with the Wind; 2. Star Wars; 3. Sound of Music; 4. ET; 5. Titanic; 6. 10 Commandments; 7. Jays; 8. Doctor Zivago; 9. The Exorcist; 10. Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs.

-- I was finishing reading Mark Harris' book "Five Came Back" -- an excellent account of the five major directors who left Hollywood to serve in World War II and how that impacted their work (a must read for any serious film buff). I thought one of the interesting things in the book was detailing the efforts of Frank Capra to get Liberty Films off the ground after the war. He had commitments from two more vet-directors -- George Stevens and William Wyler. That would have been a powerhouse trio. But Wyler owed Sam Goldwyn one more film from his pre-war contract. He talked Goldwyn into buying the story "The Best Years of Our Lives." While Liberty was producing "It's a Wonderful Life", Wyler was churning out the biggest post-war blockbuster of all -- for another studio. What I didn't realize was that "Best Years' would be the second-highest grossing film in Hollywood history up to that point -- behind only GWTW. Had Wyler been able to make it for Liberty, that independent studio would have been a big success. Instead, it died after two movies ... at least one of them was "What a Wonderful Life."

-- Harris' book also ties into my first item -- the international box office. He goes in depth as to why the major studios were so reluctant to do any films that were critical of Hitler or the Nazis in the pre-war era -- they were trying to product their European box office. Most the good early anti-Hitler films were done by poverty row studios. Even as late as November, 1941, Wyler was fighting with Sam Goldwyn about the unflattering treatment of a Nazi flier in Mrs. Miniver -- Wyler said Goldwyn called him on Dec. 8 and dropped his objections to the negative depiction.

-- Finally, I came across a great bit of box office trivia -- what movie paid the highest return on its investment? (figure by percentage of profit compared to cost). I'll post the answer tomorrow, if anybody's interested.

[NashvilleDevil]

Not sure this belongs here, but I ran across a couple of box office items that I thought were interesting:

-- I know our contest is for domestic box office only, but I occasionally check the international numbers too. I saw an item where Disney's Frozen just moved into the all-time world-wide top five with $1.219 billion -- trailing only Avatar, Titanic, The Avengers and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows II. Apparently, Frozen is a mega-hit this spring in Japan, closing in on $194 million there.

-- Obviously, all the moves at or near the top are recent. I found a listing of the top 10 all-time domestic box office products adjusted for inflation. It's very eye-opening: 1. Gone with the Wind; 2. Star Wars; 3. Sound of Music; 4. ET; 5. Titanic; 6. 10 Commandments; 7. Jays; 8. Doctor Zivago; 9. The Exorcist; 10. Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs.

-- I was finishing reading Mark Harris' book "Five Came Back" -- an excellent account of the five major directors who left Hollywood to serve in World War II and how that impacted their work (a must read for any serious film buff). I thought one of the interesting things in the book was detailing the efforts of Frank Capra to get Liberty Films off the ground after the war. He had commitments from two more vet-directors -- George Stevens and William Wyler. That would have been a powerhouse trio. But Wyler owed Sam Goldwyn one more film from his pre-war contract. He talked Goldwyn into buying the story "The Best Years of Our Lives." While Liberty was producing "It's a Wonderful Life", Wyler was churning out the biggest post-war blockbuster of all -- for another studio. What I didn't realize was that "Best Years' would be the second-highest grossing film in Hollywood history up to that point -- behind only GWTW. Had Wyler been able to make it for Liberty, that independent studio would have been a big success. Instead, it died after two movies ... at least one of them was "What a Wonderful Life."

-- Harris' book also ties into my first item -- the international box office. He goes in depth as to why the major studios were so reluctant to do any films that were critical of Hitler or the Nazis in the pre-war era -- they were trying to product their European box office. Most the good early anti-Hitler films were done by poverty row studios. Even as late as November, 1941, Wyler was fighting with Sam Goldwyn about the unflattering treatment of a Nazi flier in Mrs. Miniver -- Wyler said Goldwyn called him on Dec. 8 and dropped his objections to the negative depiction.

-- Finally, I came across a great bit of box office trivia -- what movie paid the highest return on its investment? (figure by percentage of profit compared to cost). I'll post the answer tomorrow, if anybody's interested.

Easy Rider?

[tbyers11]

-- Finally, I came across a great bit of box office trivia -- what movie paid the highest return on its investment? (figure by percentage of profit compared to cost). I'll post the answer tomorrow, if anybody's interested.

Blair Witch Project?

[CameronBornAndBred]

Blair Witch Project?
That would be my guess too. Pennies to hundreds of dollars. Movie equivalent of inventing the pet rock.

[JasonEvans]

That would be my guess too. Pennies to hundreds of dollars. Movie equivalent of inventing the pet rock.

Blair Witch budget numbers are all over the place. I've seen everything from $20,000 to $750,000. But, its boxoffice take is known -- $248 million. That's a truly absurd ROI. The pity is that the filmmakers didn't get to enjoy most of it. They sold the rights to the film to Artisan Pictures for a million dollars. While I am sure they were doing cartwheels over that million, Artisan reaped most of the really large rewards from the film. Interestingly, neither the actors nor the filmmakers behind Blair Witch have gone on to have much success since they caught lightning in a bottle. The most successful of them is actor Joshua Leonard (http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0502671/) who has carved out a decent, but not famous, career of consistent but small roles in movies and TV.

-Jason "Heather Donahue, the female star of the film and the iconic image of it for her sniffling soliloquy to the camera, now writes books about growing medical marijuana" Evans

[Olympic Fan]

Blair Witch is a great guess -- it's got to be one of the top 5 movies ever in terms of ROI (return on investment).

But as Jason notes, the numbers for its cost are all over the place -- the sources I've seen suggest that it cost between $600,000 and $1 million. Even at the high end, it's ROI is ridiculous.

I think the undisputed champion in this category is 2009's Paranormal Activity -- made for just $15,000, it has a $196 million domestic gross.

Other champions in this category include the original Mad Max ($200,000 cost; $99.75 million profit - domestic gross only), the original George Romero Night of the Living Dead ($114,000 cost; $30 million profit), and such films as the original Halloween, Kevin Smith's Clerks ($27,000 cost; $3.15 million profit) and the original Rocky ($1 million budget; $225 million domestic gross).

But my favorite is the smallest budget ever to crack a million in domestic gross -- Robert Rodriguez's El Mariachi -- made for $7,000 and made $2.05 million in domestic US gross (not bad for a Spanish language film!).

Guys like George Miller (Mad Max), Romero, Kevin Smith, John Carpenter (Halloween; not unknown -- he did Dark Star and Assault on Precinct 13 before Halloween) and Rodriguez all became superstar directors after starting with extreme low-budget (usually self-financed) films .. Can't say that Daniel Myrick or Eduardo Sanchez -- who co-directed Blair Witch -- have done any A-list movies.

[CameronBornAndBred]

John Carpenter (Halloween; not unknown -- he did Dark Star...
Often, when my girlfriend asks me to feed the cats, I think of that guy not wanting to feed the alien. Dark Star is a great movie for killing time on a rainy day.

[tommy]

I was obligated to see Blended late last week. Was it as bad as I perceived it to be? Like, insultingly bad, right? Its numbers came in low, and I'm not surprised. Anyone else see it?

[BD80]

I was obligated to see Blended late last week. Was it as bad as I perceived it to be? Like, insultingly bad, right? Its numbers came in low, and I'm not surprised. Anyone else see it?

Did it live up (down?) to his recent string of films?

Grown Ups 2
That's My Boy
Jack & Jill

[tommy]

Did it live up (down?) to his recent string of films?

Grown Ups 2
That's My Boy
Jack & Jill

I didn't see those. I had to see Blended because a family member was involved (heavily, I'm sorry to say) in its production. To me, the script was so, so contrived, even for a romantic comedy, and both Sandler and the production were just really, really lazy. Just mailing it in. No wonder the numbers are what they are. There were laughs in it, but it was just Sandler behaving and being his naturally funny self, which I have to say is getting less and less funny and more and more tired as the years progress.

[JasonEvans]

Blair Witch is a great guess -- it's got to be one of the top 5 movies ever in terms of ROI (return on investment).

But as Jason notes, the numbers for its cost are all over the place -- the sources I've seen suggest that it cost between $600,000 and $1 million. Even at the high end, it's ROI is ridiculous.

I think the undisputed champion in this category is 2009's Paranormal Activity -- made for just $15,000, it has a $196 million domestic gross.

Other champions in this category include the original Mad Max ($200,000 cost; $99.75 million profit - domestic gross only), the original George Romero Night of the Living Dead ($114,000 cost; $30 million profit), and such films as the original Halloween, Kevin Smith's Clerks ($27,000 cost; $3.15 million profit) and the original Rocky ($1 million budget; $225 million domestic gross).

But my favorite is the smallest budget ever to crack a million in domestic gross -- Robert Rodriguez's El Mariachi -- made for $7,000 and made $2.05 million in domestic US gross (not bad for a Spanish language film!).

Guys like George Miller (Mad Max), Romero, Kevin Smith, John Carpenter (Halloween; not unknown -- he did Dark Star and Assault on Precinct 13 before Halloween) and Rodriguez all became superstar directors after starting with extreme low-budget (usually self-financed) films .. Can't say that Daniel Myrick or Eduardo Sanchez -- who co-directed Blair Witch -- have done any A-list movies.

Don't forget the film that launched Spike Lee's career. She's Gotta Have It cost like $150,00 to make and it earned over $7 mil at the boxoffice (and a lot more if you count the commercial power of the Mars Blackmon character "Must be the shooooooes!").

-Jason "Clerks is a great one... can't believe I didn't think of that one earlier" Evans

[JasonEvans]

both Sandler and the production were just really, really lazy. Just mailing it in.

See, anyone can be a reviewer! Tommy just perfectly reviewed every movie Adam Sandler has made since Funny People (2009).

-Jason "I actually think Funny People, in which Sandler was really trying and was fairly good but which only did so-so business, made him decide that trying wasn't worth it" Evans

[tommy]

See, anyone can be a reviewer! Tommy just perfectly reviewed every movie Adam Sandler has made since Funny People (2009).

-Jason "I actually think Funny People, in which Sandler was really trying and was fairly good but which only did so-so business, made him decide that trying wasn't worth it" Evans

You're right. He's just hanging around in his baggy t-shirt and shorts and counting his money. Loads and loads of it.

Frankly, Blended (which is a horrible, horrible title, on top of it being a terrible movie) looked basically like a big excuse for Sandler, the other actors, and all the people involved in the production to have a Warner-Brothers-financed free trip to Africa for their families, and while they're there, sure, go on a safari and do whatever else people do when they travel to Africa. There was no reason for this movie to be set in Africa. None. Total boondoggle, really. Which is kind of funny, since I don't think Adam Sandler, or the people involved in the higher levels of the production, would have any trouble financing their own trips to Africa. He/they can afford it.

[davekay1971]

You're right. He's just hanging around in his baggy t-shirt and shorts and counting his money. Loads and loads of it.

Frankly, Blended (which is a horrible, horrible title, on top of it being a terrible movie) looked basically like a big excuse for Sandler, the other actors, and all the people involved in the production to have a Warner-Brothers-financed free trip to Africa for their families, and while they're there, sure, go on a safari and do whatever else people do when they travel to Africa. There was no reason for this movie to be set in Africa. None. Total boondoggle, really. Which is kind of funny, since I don't think Adam Sandler, or the people involved in the higher levels of the production, would have any trouble financing their own trips to Africa. He/they can afford it.

Not the first or the last time this has happened. Couples Retreat looked like a good chance for Vince Vaughn, Jon Favreau, Peter Billingsley, and their buddies to vacation in the tropics. And hang out with a couple of mighty cute actresses while they were there...

[tommy]

Not the first or the last time this has happened. Couples Retreat looked like a good chance for Vince Vaughn, Jon Favreau, Peter Billingsley, and their buddies to vacation in the tropics. And hang out with a couple of mighty cute actresses while they were there...

Yeah, I know. In Blended, Sandler and Drew Barrymore meet on a blind date held at Hooters, of all places. Because, it turns out, Sandler's deceased wife used to work there, so he knows all the girls. And of course so we can later learn that it's not that Sandler's character is a leering pig, but no, really he's an upstanding, nice guy family man. Not a Hooters-type guy at all, really. Anyway, the product "placement" is really ridiculous.

I had to go to the Blended premiere, and at the after party, just to feed their own egos and improve the eye candy, they had actual Hooters girls, in the regular 'uniform,' serving drinks and passed h'ors d'ouevres and being just oh-so-perky and friendly. Totally unnecessary, gratuitous, ego-serving spending that did nothing to advance what should be the real interest of the studio, which is making money, not wasting it.

Between those kinds of stunts, and the obscene amount of money they're paying guys like Adam Sandler (to make movies that fall far, far short of revenue targets), it's no wonder that movie tickets cost $15 or $16.

[JasonEvans]

X-Men: DOFP has held up really strong mid-week this week. I think all the kiddies getting out of school across the country has been a big boost. Ordinarily, I would expect a film that opened like this to gross about $38-$40 mil in its second weekend, but I bet X-Men overperforms and comes in closer to $43-$45 million. If it does that, it will be a mortal lock for the Top 5 (if it wasn't already). In fact, I think it is going to be the #1 grossing movie of everything that has been released thus far this summer. Cap 2 is current leader at $254 mil (it is almost done). I think XMDOFP will earn something to $275 million.

-Jason "Maleficent is going to have a much bigger opening than A Million Ways -- the reviews on Million Ways are mediocre. It won't be a contender in our contest" Evans

[Reisen]

The reviews on Million Ways are mediocre. It won't be a contender in our contest"

I saw that coming a mile away (think I called it earlier in this thread).

[YmoBeThere]

One writer predicts a much lower weekend for X Men:

Fox's “X-Men: Days of Future Past,” last week's No. 1 movie, was a distant second and heading for a $31 million weekend after taking in $9.4 million Friday. That would be a roughly 66 percent drop from the Marvel mutant mashup's $90 million debut, steep given its strong reviews and “A” CinemaScore.


https://movies.yahoo.com/news/maleficent-leaves-x-men-million-ways-die-dust-152800330.html

[Olympic Fan]

I see where Maleficent was the box office leader Friday night -- well ahead of X-men or Godzilla or especially A Million Ways to Die.

Of course, the Friday total of about $24 million was well short of what the superhero movies did ion their first Friday -- Spidey, Godzilla and X-Men all had $35 million plus on their first weekends. I don't think Maleficent will challenge for our top five, but it's going to be very strong ....

[JasonEvans]

I see where Maleficent was the box office leader Friday night -- well ahead of X-men or Godzilla or especially A Million Ways to Die.

Of course, the Friday total of about $24 million was well short of what the superhero movies did ion their first Friday -- Spidey, Godzilla and X-Men all had $35 million plus on their first weekends. I don't think Maleficent will challenge for our top five, but it's going to be very strong ....

Maleficent ended up doing $70 mil for the weekend**, a great number for a non-sequel, non-action film. It got an A Cinemascore, despite getting sorta mediocre reviews, which may mean word of mouth will be good. Despite that $70 mil opening, it will need long legs to be a real player in our Top 5 contest. It could hold up nicely next weekend as the only family film in theaters, but will get crushed by the How To Train Your Dragon 2 behemoth the following weekend. My bottom line is that I doubt it will make more than about $175 million, at the most.

**- Note, the $70 mil is Disney's figure and I would bet just about anything that the actual number is more like $68 or $69 million. Disney came up with the $70 mil figure by predicting a much better Sunday than most other movie analysts expect for this film. I think they wanted to generate the headlines of a $70 mil opening and know that once the number gets revised to $68.7 mil (or something like that) no one will really notice.

A Million Ways To Die In The West was a disaster from the standpoint of our contest. $17 mil opening weekend is going to make earning even $50 million a real challenge. It got a B Cinemascore and poor reviews too, so I doubt the legs are long. I am surprised, as I thought the trailers looked very funny and Seth McFarlane is generally a comedic genius. Anyway, if you bet on this one, you lose.

The other interesting story was X-Men's 64% drop to make just $32.6 mil. That really shocked me as the mid-week numbers had been good and I thought it was going to make closer to $40 million. Godzilla, which tumbled almost 67% last weekend, dropped another 60% this weekend to make just $12.2 mill. Suddenly, the absolute certainty that Godzilla would surpass Spidey 2 is a lot less certain.

Let's look at the standings...

Cap 2 - $255.1 mil ($.6 mil for the weekend, pretty much done)
Spidey 2 - $192.7 mil ($3.7 mil for the weekend, will crawl above $200 mil but may not reach $210 mil)
Godzilla - $174.6 mil ($12.2 mil for the weekend, about $2 mil ahead of where Spidey 2 was at the same point... these two will be close)
X-Men: DOFP - $162.0 mil ($32.6 mil for the weekend, about $14-16 mil ahead of where Spidey and Godzilla were at this point. Should beat both of those flicks)


-Jason "by the way, I'm see Tom Cruise's Edge of Tomorrow tonight... anyone want a review?" Evans

[Reisen]

by the way, I'm see Tom Cruise's Edge of Tomorrow tonight... anyone want a review?

Yes. No idea if it will be any good, but I'm looking forward to it.

[JasonEvans]

**- Note, the $70 mil is Disney's figure and I would bet just about anything that the actual number is more like $68 or $69 million. Disney came up with the $70 mil figure by predicting a much better Sunday than most other movie analysts expect for this film. I think they wanted to generate the headlines of a $70 mil opening and know that once the number gets revised to $68.7 mil (or something like that) no one will really notice.

Toldya... the actual weekend figure for Maleficent just came out. It was $69.4 million. So, Disney over-estimated by .6 million and got the $70 mil headline they had wanted.

-Jason "lying comes easy to Hollywood execs" Evans

[Olympic Fan]

The other interesting story was X-Men's 64% drop to make just $32.6 mil. That really shocked me as the mid-week numbers had been good and I thought it was going to make closer to $40 million. Godzilla, which tumbled almost 67% last weekend, dropped another 60% this weekend to make just $12.2 mill. Suddenly, the absolute certainty that Godzilla would surpass Spidey 2 is a lot less certain.
-Jason "by the way, I'm see Tom Cruise's Edge of Tomorrow tonight... anyone want a review?" Evans

I agree ... after weeks of feeling good about my chances, now I'm quite unsure. I think it's impossible to predict the final standings of Spidey 2, X-Men and Godzilla. Going to be very close either way.

[JasonEvans]

I agree ... after weeks of feeling good about my chances, now I'm quite unsure. I think it's impossible to predict the final standings of Spidey 2, X-Men and Godzilla. Going to be very close either way.

I feel pretty confident that X-Men will finish ahead of the other two. It is running a good $12 mil ahead of where they were at the same point in their release.

-Jason "I am starting to think that 22 Jump Street could be a player in this contest..." Evans

[Udaman]

X-Men will definitely finish ahead of Godzilla and Spiderman. That's a certainty.

What's not a certainty (anymore) is that Godzilla will beat Spiderman. Godzilla took a big hit this weekend, compared to what Spiderman did comparably. In its 3rd weekend of release (which was last weekend), Godzilla made $12M. In Spiderman's 3rd weekend, it made $16.8M. In it's 4th weekend (which was Memorial Day), Spiderman made $10M over the 4 day period of Friday through Monday. There is NO WAY Godzilla is going to do that this upcoming weekend. It will be fortunate to make $7M over that time frame. Godzilla just finished its 18th day, and it sits at $175.6M. On its 18th day Spiderman was at $173.7M, but it was just heading into Memorial Day weekend, where it got a lot of traffic that Godzilla won't get this weekend.

Put it this way.....if Godzilla does 50% of what it did last Tues - Sunday this Tues - Sunday, then after Sunday it will be sitting at about 184.9M after 24 days. And I think a 50% drop is generous. If Godzilla does a 53% drop on all of those days, it will be at 184.5M. For all of us keeping score, Spiderman was at exactly $184.9 after its 24th day, but then had Memorial Day where it brought in $2.1M. There is no way Godzilla brings in $2.1M on Monday June 9th. No way at all. By this Monday, Spiderman will be ahead of where Godzilla was at the exact same time.

Spiderman is about to fall off a cliff as Oblivion and Fault in our Stars pushes it off most screens....but next weekend How to Train Your Dragon and Jump 22 will do the exact same thing to Godzilla. Before last weekend, I was 95% sure Godzilla would beat out Spiderman. Now I'm about 80% sure Spiderman will end up winning.

[BD80]

... Spiderman is about to fall off a cliff as Oblivion and Fault in our Stars pushes it off most screens... .

How on earth will a drama about a girl on oxygen and a boy with a prosthetic leg impact the box office for Spiderman????

Did The Notebook draw people from Spiderman II?

[Udaman]

It's all about screens. Oblivion and Fault in our Stars will take up screens that Spiderman used to have. It's that simple. Next week Jump 22 and How to Train your Dragon take away Godzilla's screens.

[JasonEvans]

Oblivion and Fault in our Stars will take up screens that Spiderman used to have.

I just want to check, are we now calling all Tom Cruise sci-fi films Oblivion, even if that is not their official name? I have no problem with this, but just want to be sure everyone else got the memo ;)

-Jason "as you can see from my review (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?33900-Edge-of-Tomorrow-early-review), Edge of Tomorrow is waaaay better than Oblivion" Evans

[Udaman]

Doh!

My mistake. Actually, I liked Oblivion more than I think most people (and critics did). Am very excited for Edge of Tomorrow.

And Spiderman is going to beat Godzilla. Doesn't mean it will make the Top 5 though, as I think, as you hinted, that 22 Jump Street might be a dark horse, and that Planet of the Apes could sneak in as well.

[Duvall]

You know what I can't figure out? Why I voted for Jupiter Ascending. Was it an abiding belief in the Wachowski siblings? A protest vote against the slew of sequals I will never watch? A vote that was intended for Guardians of the Galaxy?

This is going to bother me all summer long. I do hope that the movie is good, though. I am unlikely to see anything else on the list, so it is my only hope for a summer evening at the cinema.

Well, I have some bad news... (http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/wachowskis-jupiter-ascending-abruptly-bumped-709184)

[YmoBeThere]

How on earth will a drama about a girl on oxygen and a boy with a prosthetic leg impact the box office for Spiderman????

Did The Notebook draw people from Spiderman II?

Only half-hearted partners trying to make the other mildly happy.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Well, I have some bad news... (http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/wachowskis-jupiter-ascending-abruptly-bumped-709184)
Eeek, bumped not only from summer, but bumped to dregs of the moviegoing year. Of next year. That's one step away from straight to DVD.

[cato]

Well, I have some bad news... (http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/wachowskis-jupiter-ascending-abruptly-bumped-709184)

On the up side, maybe I can mystify myself (again) by picking it (again) this winter.

[JasonEvans]

The Jupiter Ascending decision by Warner was truly last minute. In the Edge of Tomorrow screening on Monday, they had attached a brand new Jupiter trailer. Just 24 hours later, the film is being moved back by 7 months. Whew!!

I suspect a lot of it is the special effects backlog. In the summer time, the big effects houses in Hollywood can get just jammed as so many films try to get their digital effects done. Warner says there was no way to get Jupiter finished in time for the July release date so they had to move it.

The question becomes, when is the best spot to move it to? It is almost impossible to move a film on short notice because theaters have made commitments to other films already. So, August and September are out. You would not want to put this flick in September anyway, as that is a bad month for films, especially sci-fi. Warner is a very busy studio and their slate is packed already. They might have had room to put this in late October or early November, but then it would be directly competing with Christopher Nolan's Interstellar (Nov 7 release date) which would have been really tough. Hunger Games comes in late November and December has Warner focused on the conclusion of the Hobbit trilogy. January is an even worse wasteland than September, so I think the February date is not entirely unreasonable. If you had told me that a July film was being pushed back, I would have guessed it would go to a March release, so February is even a little quicker than I might have expected.

That said, this could be a real sign that the flick is in trouble. We have not heard anything about reshoots or massive re-edits yet, and the Wachowski's probably have a ton of creative control over this project, but I would not be shocked if we get some leaks of story troubles over the next couple months. We will see how it all shakes out. I have to say that all the trailers I have see thus far have left me cold. They just aren't getting me excited for this flick. It looks like a lot of space mumbo-jumbo.

-Jason "I wonder how long the Wachowskis get to say 'From the makers of The Matrix'? At what point do they become the makers of Speed Racer?" Evans

[BD80]

...

-Jason "I wonder how long the Wachowskis get to say 'From the makers of The Matrix'? At what point do they become the makers of Speed Racer?" Evans

Wow. You could actually be making groundbreaking 1st Amendment law.

A statement so defamatory that truth is no defense.

[Olympic Fan]

Jason, as you predicted, the Tom Cruise movie The Edge of Tomorrow is proving to be a bomb at the box office -- an estimated $29 million first weekend doesn't get it done -- especially for a $170 million blockbuster. Ouch.

I was reading an interesting article about the weekend box office leader -- The Fault in Our Stars with an estimated $59 million. That's a great opening for a non-blockbuster that cost just $12 million. But the author suggests that it's showing was disappointing in that it was frontloaded -- huge Thursday night preview numbers, strong Friday night, then an unusually big dropoff on Saturday:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2014/06/08/box-office-fault-in-our-stars-scores-48m-weekend-tom-cruises-edge-of-tomorrow-earns-29m/

Either way, it's not going to be a factor in our contest (neither is Malificent, despite its strong opening a week ago).

In our contest news -- X-Men passed Godzilla and is closing fast on Spidey. Godzilla made up $5 million on Spidey over the weekend and is now something like $10 million behind. It's going to be very, very close when it's over.

PS The author of the Forbes article I linked has an interesting suggestion. He points out that Shailene Woodley, the star of "Fault" has opened two $50 million weekends this fall (Divergent was the other) -- that's box office clout. He suggests they sign her up for the next Spiderman .,.. and give her top billing.

[Duvall]

PS The author of the Forbes article I linked has an interesting suggestion. He points out that Shailene Woodley, the star of "Fault" has opened two $50 million weekends this fall (Divergent was the other) -- that's box office clout. He suggests they sign her up for the next Spiderman .,.. and give her top billing.

That seems unlikely, given that she was signed for the last Spider-Man film (and presumably the rest of the series), but had her scenes cut for reasons that were never really explained.

[DU82]

That seems unlikely, given that she was signed for the last Spider-Man film (and presumably the rest of the series), but had her scenes cut for reasons that were never really explained.

She's scheduled to play Mary Jane, right? I figured they deleted her scenes in ASM2 so as to not deflect attention from Gwen's story line. Cleaner to introduce MJ in the next movie.

[Udaman]

Spidey is going to beat Godzilla. By about $1.5M or so, but it will beat it. As of the daily tracking....after today, Spiderman will be ahead of where Godzilla is given the same number of dates out (by about $1M). Then this weekend when How to Train your Dragon and Jump 22 come out, Godzilla is going to see a massive cutback on its total number of screens, exactly one week earlier than Spiderman faced the same pullback.

X-Men is a lock for the Top 5. So is Captain America. How to Train Your Dragon is an absolute lock (trust me on that). Given the franchise's history, one would think Transformers will be up there. That leaves one more spot. If those are indeed in the top 4, then if you picked Godzilla, you are out (because Spiderman will beat it).

Personally I'm disappointed that I didn't pick X-Men. Just thought that given how poorly First Class did (and it was a great movie), that the demand out there was too small

[YmoBeThere]

-- Finally, I came across a great bit of box office trivia -- what movie paid the highest return on its investment? (figure by percentage of profit compared to cost). I'll post the answer tomorrow, if anybody's interested.
I don't recall ever seeing the answer to this.

[-jk]

I don't recall ever seeing the answer to this.

The google suggests Paranormal Activity (http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/budgets/).

-jk

[tommy]

What about Blair Witch? Cost $1M and made $250M.

[davekay1971]

What about Blair Witch? Cost $1M and made $250M.

A 250x return on investment is good

El Mariachi beat that. El Mariachi was made by Robert Rodriguez for $7,000 (half of which was raised by Rodriguez participating in paid clinical trials), and grossed $2,040,920 at the US box office, a handy 291x return on investment. I have no idea what the income was internationally (i.e.: how much did it make in Mexico, the market for which it was intended?)

[YmoBeThere]

Looking at the numbers linked, brings up some comments, El Mariachi is conspicuously absent from the highest ROI list as is Blair Witch. They only list a million or two dollars for El Mariachi internationally. Is $7,000 a reasonable budget? In 1993, they were probably still using film, no? Could they have even printed a few copies for $7,000?

[Olympic Fan]

I answered this question earlier in the thread.

Paranormal Activities is universally conceded to be the best ROI -- at a cost of $15,000, it made over $196 million ... nothing else is close.

BTW: I got to see El Mariachi for the first time last week. The budget of $7,000 is right ... amazing job by Rodriquez.

[davekay1971]

I answered this question earlier in the thread.

Paranormal Activities is universally conceded to be the best ROI -- at a cost of $15,000, it made over $196 million ... nothing else is close.

BTW: I got to see El Mariachi for the first time last week. The budget of $7,000 is right ... amazing job by Rodriquez.

I reject Paranormal Activities because it spawned umpteen godawful sequels, while El Mariachi spawned Salma Hayek...er...Desperado. Granted, that's totally beside the point of this conversation ($196 mill off of $15,000....WOW), but still. Salma Hayek. That's a ROI that we can all enjoy!

[davekay1971]

HTTYD2 grossed under $20 million on Friday and is predicted on boxofficemojo.com to come in under $55 million for the weekend. It's running 2nd to 22 Jump Street this weekend. This seems shocking to me. JE, is this an unpredicted slow start for HTTYD2, or was it expected to start in the $50-$60 mill range?

[JasonEvans]

HTTYD2 grossed under $20 million on Friday and is predicted on boxofficemojo.com to come in under $55 million for the weekend. It's running 2nd to 22 Jump Street this weekend. This seems shocking to me. JE, is this an unpredicted slow start for HTTYD2, or was it expected to start in the $50-$60 mill range?

Legs legs legs

Kid movies, especially high quality ones, tend to have long legs and play for a while. There isn't much else for kids this summer so most folks thing Dragon 2 will still be a significant factor at the boxoffice for another month or so.

That said, Boxoffice.com was predicting a $64 mil opening weekend. HSX figured it would be a little more than $70 mil. BoxofficeGuru.com seemed to be dead on the money though with its $54 mil prediction. I would say that mid-$50s for Dragon 2 is a bit disappointing, but it is worth noting that the original opened to $43.7 mil a few years ago and it went on to make $217 million, so an opening in the mid-$50s is not exactly a death knell for this flick.

Still, expectations for Dragon 2 have plunged recently. A couple weeks ago, it was at almost $220 on HSX (a measure of how much boxoffice it was expected to take in the first 3 weekends). Today is it as $164. I still think it will make our Top 5, probably making around $225 million, but it is not as much of a lock as it seemed to be a few weeks ago.

-Jason "Jump Street will beat it this weekend and, as I mentioned a couple weeks ago, I think Jump Street could be a real Top 5 contender" Evans

[Olympic Fan]

interesting weekend ...

From what I read, still don't think Jump Street is a player in our contest -- the post-weekend estimates I'm seeing are in the $168 million range -- great for a $50 million comedy, but not top five material.

At the same time, I'm seeing $180 million estimates for How to Train Your Dragon ... that probably wouldn't make it either.

I've been following Godzilla closely, since that's the movie that will break me or make me in this contest (although if Dragon stops at $180 million, it doesn't matter). It closed to within $7 million of Spidey ($191 to $199 million), but it's hard to see it closing the gap -- it was at a mere $3.5 million this weekend.

On the other hand, maybe the biggest news of the weekend was Godzilla's opening in China -- the best opening ever. And it opens in Japan next week, where it is expected to do huge business. Internationally, the G-man is likely to be the most profitable film of the summer ... but, of course, that doesn't help me.

The international box office is interesting -- Spidey is over $700 million and is well past Captain America (hmm, a character named Captain America isn't killing overseas???). Godzilla is a box office monster and even Edge of Tomorrow -- the biggest box office bomb since last summer's The Lone Ranger in America -- looks like it may break even on foreign box office profits.

[El_Diablo]

Dragon 2 is now at $135 million on HSX. And HSX projections are based on the first four weeks of wide release, not three. The movie may have decent legs beyond that, but it is clearly in trouble.

[NashvilleDevil]

Here is the top 5 after last weekend. This weekend Think Like a Man, Too and Jersey Boys open. I doubt either make the top 5 but my guess is Think Like a Man wins the weekend.

Numbers are from Box Office Mojo
1. Captain America: Winter Soldier - $256,334,467
2. X-Men: Days of Future Past - $206,256,610
3. Amazing Spider-Man 2 - $198,386,221
4. Godzilla - $191,457,194
5. Maleficent - $163,021,529

Maybe Maleficent is the summer's kid movie and everyone overlooked it.

Transformers opens on June 27th, and several of us put in the top 5. How to Train Your Dragon needs a nice week 2 to have a chance of making the top 5. It played on close to a 1,000 more screens than 22 Jump Street and still finished 2nd, that is not a good sign.

[Duvall]

Numbers are from Box Office Mojo
1. Captain America: Winter Soldier - $256,334,467
2. X-Men: Days of Future Past - $206,256,610
3. Amazing Spider-Man 2 - $198,386,221

House of Ideas!

[YmoBeThere]

I'm already out with Rio 2, might as well miss on both animated flicks. Don't parents take their kids to movies any more?

[Duvall]

I'm already out with Rio 2, might as well miss on both animated flicks. Don't parents take their kids to movies any more?

At $13 a kid...no?

[YmoBeThere]

At $13 a kid...no?

My thought also, but sans kids no first hand evidence.

[AncientPsychicT]

I'm already out with Rio 2, might as well miss on both animated flicks. Don't parents take their kids to movies any more?

Maybe the kids want to stay home and watch their Frozen DVD again.

[Udaman]

By the way - we might have our first true sleeper candidate. I give you Angelina Jolie and Maleficent. It's had surprisingly strong legs. This Monday, Tues and Wed it did $7.5M. That's during its 18th, 19th and 20th days of release. By contrast, Spiderman did $3.9M over that same stretch, and Godzilla did $3.6M. Those are big, big differences.

Currently Maleficent stands at $170.5M. If it does a 50% drop each day compared to its prior week, then when it's been out for 38 days it will be at $195.5M. Spidey was at $196.3M on that same date. Godzilla will be around $194.6M come that time period. And Maleficent hasn't had huge drop-offs yet. My 13 year old daughter went to see it last weekend and loved it. A ton of teenage girls are going and talking it up. Not saying it's going to beat Spidey or Godzilla....but it's going to be really, really close, and could easily beat one of them, and might just beat both.

It's absolutely going to beat How To Train Your Dragon. If that movie only loses 35% a day compared to its prior week total (which is an insanely good percentage, and not at all sustainable), then on its 20th day it would be at $143M, which is $27M below where Maleficent currently stands.

Truly a stunner.

[brevity]

By the way - we might have our first true sleeper candidate. I give you Angelina Jolie and Maleficent. It's had surprisingly strong legs.

...

Truly a stunner.

I don't normally go for the obvious joke, but it had to be done:

4176

[NashvilleDevil]

It looks like Maleficent has an excellent shot at the top 5 and seeing how as many people picked it as the Bills have Super Bowl titles we will not have a 5/5 this summer. Unless HTTYD2 has legs like Titanic.

[JasonEvans]

We have a lot of contenders for the final few spots in our top 5. Right now, Cap and X-Men DOFP are the only locks, and DOFP is only barely a lock. It has been a summer of big openings and then films that could not sustain the momentum. Shockingly, we could see the last spot in our Top 5 go to a film that make $210 million or so, a figure far less than I expected would be needed to reach the top 5.

So, here is where things stand through the most current weekend:


Cap 2 - $256 mil (made just $156k over the weekend, it is all done but is easily a lock)
XM: DOFP - $216.7 mil (made $6.2 mil over the weekend and will probably make more than $225 mil total)
Spidey 2 - $199.4 mil (made $600k and may barely will limp across $200 mil this coming week... but won't make much more than that)
Godzilla - $194.9 mil (made $1.8 mil this past weekend. Still a couple mil behind Spidey on a days-in-release comparison, likely to end up just a tad short of $200 mil)
Maleficent - $185.9 mil ($13.2 mil weekend. It is $1 mil ahead of Spidey on a DIR comparison and seems to be displaying longer legs. Probably ends up in the $205-210 mil range)


A couple other contenders that are further back but still in play...

22 Jump Street made $29 mil this past weekend and stands at $111.4 mil. It dropped 49% from its opening week, a good hold but not incredible and probably not enough to give it the looong legs it needs to be in our Top 5. I suspect it maxes out around $190 million -- it will be in the mix, but I suspect it will come up short of the Top 5.

How To Train your Dragon 2 made $25.3 mil over the weekend, a drop of 48% from its opening week. Again, a good number, but not the kind of legs needed to be a player in this contest. It stands at just $95.1 million so far and has to be one of the most disappointing movies of the season in terms of pre-summer expectations. Maleficent is sapping up a lot of the young female audience and the opening of the new Transformers flick this coming weekend will probably pull in the young males. Dragon 2, despite good reviews and much love for the original, isn't going to make more than about $170-180 mil, I suspect.

Speaking of Transformers, the first few reviews are coming in and they aren't terrible. No one is saying it is great, but it is not a disaster and that probably spells big money again for this lucrative franchise. I expect an opening in the mid-90 million kind of range -- about the same as Cap, Godzilla, and Spidey.

-Jason "right now, I think the Top 5 will end up being Cap 2, Transformers, XM: DOFP, Maleficent, and maybe Guardians of the Galaxy -- but what do I know?" Evans

[YmoBeThere]

How To Train your Dragon 2 made $25.3 mil over the weekend, a drop of 48% from its opening week. Again, a good number, but not the kind of legs needed to be a player in this contest. It stands at just $95.1 million so far and has to be one of the most disappointing movies of the season in terms of pre-summer expectations. Maleficent is sapping up a lot of the young female audience and the opening of the new Transformers flick this coming weekend will probably pull in the young males. Dragon 2, despite good reviews and much love for the original, isn't going to make more than about $170-180 mil, I suspect.

-Jason "right now, I think the Top 5 will end up being Cap 2, Transformers, XM: DOFP, Maleficent, and maybe Guardians of the Galaxy -- but what do I know?" Evans


I am at the point of having 8 contenders...

The locks:
Most of you have identified these-- Transformers 4, How To Train Your Dragon 2, and Amazing Spider-Man 2. I see each of them as mortal locks to make at least $240+ million.

Proving the prognostication business is difficult, even the mortal locks are exactly that, mortal.

[JasonEvans]

Proving the prognostication business is difficult, even the mortal locks are exactly that, mortal.

Yup. This has been an utterly confounding summer. Almost nothing has had any meaningful legs. It has been a summer of big opening weekends and then everything dropping precipitously. Crazy stuff, almost paradigm-changing.

-Jason

[CameronBornAndBred]

Speaking of Transformers, the first few reviews are coming in and they aren't terrible. No one is saying it is great, but it is not a disaster...
The first few reviews that were positive are still the only positive reviews. The tomato meter has been dropping like a rock since 4 people gave "positive" reviews. Positive in the sense of "well, you know what you are getting into, so there for it isn't truly awful".
Since those four were posted, no other + reviews have come through, but the negatives are coming in a torrential downpour, up to 13 as of now.

You will feel dumber for having sat through it.

The race to the title of Worst Transformers Movie has a new contender.

Transformers: Age of Extinction has appalling dialogue, deplorable representations of women, un-self-aware action sequences, very little humour and racial stereotyping. In other words, it's a Michael Bay movie.
And because it is a Michael Bay movie, it will make money, but maybe not enough to rule the summer, especially if it doensn't have legs. I'm sure it will win the weekend in a huge way, but I wonder how long it will last. Speaking of Michael Bay movies, the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles are out in early August. I think it will be a bit too late to make waves in the standings, but it looks like one that kids will be begging mom to take them to see. It's been a long time since we've seen TMNT on the screen, and never before in CGI. It would not surprise me if it does very well, maybe even close to the numbers of a crappy Transformers movie.

[JasonEvans]

The first few reviews that were positive are still the only positive reviews. The tomato meter has been dropping like a rock since 4 people gave "positive" reviews. Positive in the sense of "well, you know what you are getting into, so there for it isn't truly awful".
Since those four were posted, no other + reviews have come through, but the negatives are coming in a torrential downpour, up to 13 as of now.

As you can see from my review (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?33962-Transformers-Age-of-Extinction-%28early-review%29&p=736246#post736246) I was tragically wrong when I said it might not be a train wreck of a film. Whew... was I wrong!

-Jason "currently there are 7 fresh and 38 rotten reviews on RT... I have no idea what film those 7 positive reviewers were watching, but it sure wasn't the @$^@!&^ I sat through last night" Evans

[CameronBornAndBred]

As you can see from my review (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?33962-Transformers-Age-of-Extinction-%28early-review%29&p=736246#post736246) I was tragically wrong when I said it might not be a train wreck of a film. Whew... was I wrong!

-Jason "currently there are 7 fresh and 38 rotten reviews on RT... I have no idea what film those 7 positive reviewers were watching, but it sure wasn't the @$^@!&^ I sat through last night" Evans
Did you bring ear plugs? :rolleyes:
P.S...I admit to being bummed out, I was hoping new actors (and a few that I admire at that) would help save this and make it a good film to check out. Sigh...

[davekay1971]

Did you bring ear plugs? :rolleyes:
P.S...I admit to being bummed out, I was hoping new actors (and a few that I admire at that) would help save this and make it a good film to check out. Sigh...

My only hope here is that Mark Wahlberg will take whatever money he's made on this movie and do something good through his production company. So far his credits as a producer include Boardwalk Empire, Lone Survivor, Prisoners, and Entourage (okay, that one jumped the shark toward the end, but the first few seasons were really good).

[JasonEvans]

Sigh... America sucks. Despite horrible, terrible reviews millions of people went to see the new Transformers movie over the weekend. It is going to have the biggest opening weekend of the year, probably around $98-100 million. Of course, none of this comes as a surprise -- we all knew this would be a big flick this summer, quality did not matter.

-Jason " even if it has weak legs, I have a hard time seeing it not make at least $220 mil or so" Evans

[PSurprise]

I think if they showed a turd for two hours
and called it Transformers, it would still make 200 million

[davekay1971]

Sigh... America sucks. Despite horrible, terrible reviews millions of people went to see the new Transformers movie over the weekend. It is going to have the biggest opening weekend of the year, probably around $98-100 million. Of course, none of this comes as a surprise -- we all knew this would be a big flick this summer, quality did not matter.

-Jason " even if it has weak legs, I have a hard time seeing it not make at least $220 mil or so" Evans

Given the international box office that Transformers is doing, apparently terrible movie taste is a worldwide human trait. Perhaps humanity can find world peace and unity around the rallying cry, "Hey, we all like utter crap! We CAN get along!"

At which point we'll probably be wiped out by the Vogons.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Given the international box office that Transformers is doing, apparently terrible movie taste is a worldwide human trait. Perhaps humanity can find world peace and unity around the rallying cry, "Hey, we all like utter crap! We CAN get along!"

At which point we'll probably be wiped out by the Vogons.
Their poetry is better than a Michael Bay movie.

[YmoBeThere]

My Pyrrhic victory? At least I didn't vote for the schlock called Transformers: Age of Extinction. I voted for movies that the masses liked even less.

[JasonEvans]

At some point someone should go back through the past several years of these threads to see if we have ever done as bad as we are fated to do this year.

Maleficent, which is still doing fairly decent boxoffice ($8.4 mil approx this weekend), has now made $202 and has passed both Spidey2 (barely at $200 mil) and Godzilla (around $197 mil) -- all but ensuring that it will be among the Top 5 films of summer. It is clear that Dragon 2 ($13 mil this weekend for a $122 mil total) won't come close to the Top 5 -- heck, it will clearly finish well behind 22 Jump Street ($15 mil this weekend for just under $140 mil total).

I think there could be more surprises ahead of us too. I won't be all that surprised if 3 out of 5 is the best anyone does this summer.

-Jason "if Guardians or Apes really take off and pass X-Men, most of us could go just 2 out of 5" Evans

[davekay1971]

At some point someone should go back through the past several years of these threads to see if we have ever done as bad as we are fated to do this year.

Maleficent, which is still doing fairly decent boxoffice ($8.4 mil approx this weekend), has now made $202 and has passed both Spidey2 (barely at $200 mil) and Godzilla (around $197 mil) -- all but ensuring that it will be among the Top 5 films of summer. It is clear that Dragon 2 ($13 mil this weekend for a $122 mil total) won't come close to the Top 5 -- heck, it will clearly finish well behind 22 Jump Street ($15 mil this weekend for just under $140 mil total).

I think there could be more surprises ahead of us too. I won't be all that surprised if 3 out of 5 is the best anyone does this summer.

-Jason "if Guardians or Apes really take off and pass X-Men, most of us could go just 2 out of 5" Evans

Overall this summer is just turning in really low domestic box office numbers compared to summers past. Is Hollywood crapping bricks or is the international box office increase enough of a boon to keep the suits happy? JE, do you have any take on that?

[YmoBeThere]

Overall this summer is just turning in really low domestic box office numbers compared to summers past. Is Hollywood crapping bricks or is the international box office increase enough of a boon to keep the suits happy? JE, do you have any take on that?

I was wondering when someone was going to ask about this.

[mph]

-Jason "if Guardians or Apes really take off and pass X-Men, most of us could go just 2 out of 5" Evans

There aren't many early reviews out for Planet of the Apes, but the two I've read are very strong.

Variety: (http://variety.com/2014/film/reviews/film-review-dawn-of-the-planet-of-the-apes-1201252833/)


Entirely replacing the previous film’s human cast, but crucially promoting Andy Serkis’ remarkable motion-capture inhabitation of Caesar to centerstage, “Dawn” ought to go ape at the global box office starting July 9, smoothing the path for further sequels to test the franchise’s complexity.


Hollywood Reporter: (http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movie/dawn-planet-apes/review/715555)


A gripping account of interspecies conflict, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes manages to do at least three things exceptionally well that are hard enough to pull off individually: Maintain a simmering level of tension without letup for two hours, seriously improve on a very good first entry in a franchise and produce a powerful humanistic statement using a significantly simian cast of characters. In the annals of sequels, Dawn is to Rise of the Planet of the Apes what The Empire Strikes Back was to Star Wars — it’s that much better.

How's that for high praise? I'm planning on going opening week. I can't say that about any of the rest of this summer's movies.

[Olympic Fan]

Well, I'm going to give up on my Godzilla gamble ... amazing how close it is going to finish to Spiderman 2 -- but it's looking more and more like neither makes the top 5.

It doesn't matter ... I also missed on How To Train Your Dragon 2 -- at $121.8 million after 3 weeks, it's still $18 million behind Jump Street (which came out the same week) ... it MAY have longer legs than most, but I doubt $200-million plus legs.

The top 5 as of this moment:

1. Captain America -- $257.2 million
2. X-Men -- $223.4 million
3. Maleficent -- $201.9 million (I did NOT see this one coming)
4. Spidey -- $200.2 million
5. Godzilla -- $197.1 million

I think the top three are safe -- Maleficent is still going fairly strong (another 10-15 million still to come).

Godzilla is toast -- Transformers made $100 million (the best opening of the year and that's without a holiday) in its first week. Even with the same short legs that a lot of action movies have had this summer, it will almost certainly pass Godzilla and Spidey.

That means Spidey's spot depends on whether or not a July movie blows up -- agree that Apes is the best bet ... I'd be surprised if Guardians is a $200 million movie.

FWIW: I think I'm going to end up with 3 of 5 -- Cap America, X-Men and (ugh!) Transformers

[JasonEvans]

3. Maleficent -- $201.9 million (I did NOT see this one coming)

No one did. It got exactly zero votes in our poll. Only Edge of Tomorrow (wonderful film, go see it!!) also got zero votes. Even Jupiter Ascending got a vote.

-Jason "after SWATH made $155 mil, how could we predict that almost the same thing -- Maleficent -- would beat it by 40-50% ?" Evans

[NashvilleDevil]

No one did. It got exactly zero votes in our poll. Only Edge of Tomorrow (wonderful film, go see it!!) also got zero votes. Even Jupiter Ascending got a vote.

-Jason "after SWATH made $155 mil, how could we predict that almost the same thing -- Maleficent -- would beat it by 40-50% ?" Evans

Angelina is a bigger draw than Kristen Stewart and Charlize Theron?

[brevity]

No one did. It got exactly zero votes in our poll. Only Edge of Tomorrow (wonderful film, go see it!!) also got zero votes. Even Jupiter Ascending got a vote.

-Jason "after SWATH made $155 mil, how could we predict that almost the same thing -- Maleficent -- would beat it by 40-50% ?" Evans


Angelina is a bigger draw than Kristen Stewart and Charlize Theron?

I doubt it. Maybe this is the summer that pre-teen and teenage girls staked their claim on the box office.

Aside from Maleficent, Hollywood failed families with young girls. Rio 2 came out too early and How to Train Your Dragon 2 doesn't have enough girl appeal. While I doubt any survey has been conducted, I would guess that Maleficent made a lot of money from girls who were a little scared off by the premise/advertising but had no other choice.

This has just been a lousy summer. I haven't been tempted to go see a movie yet; Hollywood has not given me a reason to leave the house. I may change my mind in July, but more for the high-powered air conditioning than any film's content.

[NashvilleDevil]

I doubt it. Maybe this is the summer that pre-teen and teenage girls staked their claim on the box office.

Aside from Maleficent, Hollywood failed families with young girls. Rio 2 came out too early and How to Train Your Dragon 2 doesn't have enough girl appeal. While I doubt any survey has been conducted, I would guess that Maleficent made a lot of money from girls who were a little scared off by the premise/advertising but had no other choice.

This has just been a lousy summer. I haven't been tempted to go see a movie yet; Hollywood has not given me a reason to leave the house. I may change my mind in July, but more for the high-powered air conditioning than any film's content.

The good news is The Equalizer comes out in September. Not summer but still Denzel doing Denzel things will be a fun time.

[JasonEvans]

This has just been a lousy summer. I haven't been tempted to go see a movie yet; Hollywood has not given me a reason to leave the house. I may change my mind in July, but more for the high-powered air conditioning than any film's content.

Dissent...

There have been many high quality films this summer. Depending on what you like, you would probably enjoy...

X-Men: DOFP is one of the better comic book movies.
Edge of Tomorrow is the best/smartest sci-fi since at least Looper.
Chef is funny and heartwarming... and will make you want to eat!
I have not seen it yet, but many say The Fault In Our Stars is a wonderful teen romance tearjerker.
22 Jump Street is a self-aware raunchy, action comedy that will make you laugh, for sure. Neighbors isn't quite as good, but is worth seeing if you like raunchy comedies.
I've heard that Million Dollar Arm is a fine, uplifting sports flick.

And, if you missed them over the past few months, Grand Budapest Hotel and Captain America 2 have gotten excellent reviews as well. You could also do worse than to rent the recently released Lego Movie, which will delight adults as well as children.

-Jason "everyone is saying that Dawn of the Apes is going to be fantastic. I'm hopeful about Tammy too, which I am seeing tonight" Evans

[brevity]

This has just been a lousy summer. I haven't been tempted to go see a movie yet; Hollywood has not given me a reason to leave the house. I may change my mind in July, but more for the high-powered air conditioning than any film's content.


Dissent...

There have been many high quality films this summer. Depending on what you like, you would probably enjoy...

X-Men: DOFP is one of the better comic book movies.
Edge of Tomorrow is the best/smartest sci-fi since at least Looper.
Chef is funny and heartwarming... and will make you want to eat!
I have not seen it yet, but many say The Fault In Our Stars is a wonderful teen romance tearjerker.
22 Jump Street is a self-aware raunchy, action comedy that will make you laugh, for sure. Neighbors isn't quite as good, but is worth seeing if you like raunchy comedies.
I've heard that Million Dollar Arm is a fine, uplifting sports flick.

And, if you missed them over the past few months, Grand Budapest Hotel and Captain America 2 have gotten excellent reviews as well. You could also do worse than to rent the recently released Lego Movie, which will delight adults as well as children.

-Jason "everyone is saying that Dawn of the Apes is going to be fantastic. I'm hopeful about Tammy too, which I am seeing tonight" Evans

For me, there is a vast chasm between quality movies and the pressing need to leave the house to see them. Most can wait until home viewing. My local public library system (at my current residence as well as the last two cities I've lived in) puts DVDs into their database months before their release. I place holds on them, emerge at the top of the waiting list, and when each is released I get an unblemished DVD for free for 7 days. It's a feast-or-famine proposition -- not on demand like Redbox or Netflix -- but the price is right. I saw all 9 Best Picture nominees this way (in their order of availability rather than preference). I saw The Lego Movie last week and have The Grand Budapest Hotel this week.

There is, on occasion, a reason to go to the movie theater. Last summer I made a point to see Star Trek Into Darkness and Man of Steel on the big screen. Both are large-scale franchises with spoilerish elements. While I don't regret seeing either movie, and appreciate not being spoiled too heavily before seeing them, I think I could have waited and not missed out too much.

This summer is different. I have X-Men and Spider-Man fatigue. I watch Marvel's Agents of Shield, so I'm spoiled on Captain America. The other films you mentioned can probably wait. (If the hypercharged A/C factor beckons, I could see myself relenting and watching Edge of Tomorrow or 22 Jump Street.)

I saw Catching Fire on DVD, and may do the same for Mockingjay. I'll probably make the effort for Interstellar, depending on how it's received. Then it's on to 2015. Avengers, Bond, Star Wars... and two of those will likely be delayed to 2016.

Hollywood, you have failed me for the last time.

[BD80]

Dissent...

There have been many high quality films this summer. Depending on what you like, you would probably enjoy...

X-Men: DOFP is one of the better comic book movies.
Edge of Tomorrow is the best/smartest sci-fi since at least Looper.
Chef is funny and heartwarming... and will make you want to eat!
I have not seen it yet, but many say The Fault In Our Stars is a wonderful teen romance tearjerker.
22 Jump Street is a self-aware raunchy, action comedy that will make you laugh, for sure. Neighbors isn't quite as good, but is worth seeing if you like raunchy comedies.
I've heard that Million Dollar Arm is a fine, uplifting sports flick.

And, if you missed them over the past few months, Grand Budapest Hotel and Captain America 2 have gotten excellent reviews as well. You could also do worse than to rent the recently released Lego Movie, which will delight adults as well as children.

-Jason "everyone is saying that Dawn of the Apes is going to be fantastic. I'm hopeful about Tammy too, which I am seeing tonight" Evans

Summer movies were better in my day, even though we had to walk uphill in the snow to get there (and back).

[ncexnyc]

Sigh... America sucks. Despite horrible, terrible reviews millions of people went to see the new Transformers movie over the weekend. It is going to have the biggest opening weekend of the year, probably around $98-100 million. Of course, none of this comes as a surprise -- we all knew this would be a big flick this summer, quality did not matter.

-Jason " even if it has weak legs, I have a hard time seeing it not make at least $220 mil or so" Evans

Quality is in the eye of the beholder, which is the person opening their wallet to buy a ticket.

The same can be said for today's music. Many of us stick our nose up at what passes for music today, much like our parents did when we were listening to our Beatles and Stones.

[YmoBeThere]

Quality is in the eye of the beholder, which is the person opening their wallet to buy a ticket.

The same can be said for today's music. Many of us stick our nose up at what passes for music today, much like our parents did when we were listening to our Beatles and Stones.

Well, I was listening to Crue, GNR, Poison, etc. in my youth. My parents still stuck up their noses.

[Olympic Fan]

Quality is in the eye of the beholder, which is the person opening their wallet to buy a ticket.

The same can be said for today's music. Many of us stick our nose up at what passes for music today, much like our parents did when we were listening to our Beatles and Stones.

When I read this, it made me think of the quote by Tommy Chong (of Cheech and Chong fame): "It ain't rock 'n roll if your parents don't hate it."

[FerryFor50]

-Jason "everyone is saying that Dawn of the Apes is going to be fantastic. I'm hopeful about Tammy too, which I am seeing tonight" Evans

I suspect Tammy won't be much better than Identity Thief.

I am personally looking forward to Lucy.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I suspect Tammy won't be much better than Identity Thief.

I am personally looking forward to Lucy.

I was hoping beyond hope it would be good; I had it as my sleeper hit. So much for that.

Sitting through McCarthy's latest movie is about as pleasant as getting a colonoscopy after eating Indian takeout.
http://blog.bullz-eye.com/2014/07/01/movie-review-tammy/?_r=true

[JasonEvans]

I was hoping beyond hope it would be good; I had it as my sleeper hit. So much for that.

http://blog.bullz-eye.com/2014/07/01/movie-review-tammy/?_r=true

Ok, that review was overly harsh. The film had plenty of funny parts but not enough "stuff" happened and it took a few pretty sour turns. Much of the movie is about Tammy dealing with her alcoholic grandmother (Susan Sarandon) and it is more serious than funny, which doesn't really work alongside the silliness of the rest of the film.

It is a decent film, about like Identity Thief in my mind, but not a great comedy by any stretch. I also worry a bit about McCarthy carrying a film pretty much by herself. She seems to play the same messy, brash, rude, disheveled, aggressive character in all her movies. It gets somewhat tiresome.

I am really looking forward to seeing her take a supporting role in St. Vincent with Bill Murray this fall. The buzz for St. Vincent is really strong. I am betting it gets plenty of Comedy Golden globe nominations and perhaps even some Academy Award attention.

-Jason "Tammy was directed by McCarthy's comedian husband Ben Falcone... you could tell it was his first time in the director's chair" Evans

[Reisen]

It is a decent film, about like Identity Thief in my mind, but not a great comedy by any stretch. I also worry a bit about McCarthy carrying a film pretty much by herself. She seems to play the same messy, brash, rude, disheveled, aggressive character in all her movies. It gets somewhat tiresome.


This is my take. She's no longer funny, because she's completely one dimensional.

[FerryFor50]

Ok, that review was overly harsh. The film had plenty of funny parts but not enough "stuff" happened and it took a few pretty sour turns. Much of the movie is about Tammy dealing with her alcoholic grandmother (Susan Sarandon) and it is more serious than funny, which doesn't really work alongside the silliness of the rest of the film.

It is a decent film, about like Identity Thief in my mind, but not a great comedy by any stretch. I also worry a bit about McCarthy carrying a film pretty much by herself. She seems to play the same messy, brash, rude, disheveled, aggressive character in all her movies. It gets somewhat tiresome.

I am really looking forward to seeing her take a supporting role in St. Vincent with Bill Murray this fall. The buzz for St. Vincent is really strong. I am betting it gets plenty of Comedy Golden globe nominations and perhaps even some Academy Award attention.

-Jason "Tammy was directed by McCarthy's comedian husband Ben Falcone... you could tell it was his first time in the director's chair" Evans

St Vincent looks decent, but if you are sick of McCarthy playing the same character over and over, you could say the same for Bill Murray. Disheveled, brash, rude... (See: Rushmore, Lost in Translation, Life Aquatic, St Vincent)

[JasonEvans]

St Vincent looks decent, but if you are sick of McCarthy playing the same character over and over, you could say the same for Bill Murray. Disheveled, brash, rude... (See: Rushmore, Lost in Translation, Life Aquatic, St Vincent)

Well, seeing as Murray hasn't been any of those things in his most recent films -- Monuments Men, Hyde Park on the Hudson, Moonrise Kingdom, Grand Budapest Hotel, Zombieland, Get Low -- your comment comes off as pretty uneducated and ill-informed. Plus, one of the things Murray is a master at is injecting humanity into even his most cartoonish of characters. He can play "disheveled, brash, and rude" in the most endearing way. McCarthy isn't quite at that level yet. Her characters come off in a more pathetic kind of way that makes you pity them more than enjoy being around them.

-Jason "when Melissa McCarthy gets to be the comedic treasure that Bill Murray is, she'll be allowed to play the same basic character over and over again" Evans

[FerryFor50]

Well, seeing as Murray hasn't been any of those things in his most recent films -- Monuments Men, Hyde Park on the Hudson, Moonrise Kingdom, Grand Budapest Hotel, Zombieland, Get Low -- your comment comes off as pretty uneducated and ill-informed. Plus, one of the things Murray is a master at is injecting humanity into even his most cartoonish of characters. He can play "disheveled, brash, and rude" in the most endearing way. McCarthy isn't quite at that level yet. Her characters come off in a more pathetic kind of way that makes you pity them more than enjoy being around them.

-Jason "when Melissa McCarthy gets to be the comedic treasure that Bill Murray is, she'll be allowed to play the same basic character over and over again" Evans

Actually, he played very much the same role in Moonrise Kingdom. He plays a lot of sad old guys with a humor twist. I have not seen Grand Budapest yet, and Hyde Park/Monuments Men did not interest me. His Zombieland role really doesn't count as 1) it was pretty small and 2) he played this guy named "Bill Murray."

I like Bill Murray as much as the next guy, but let's not pretend he has a whole lot of range. Robin Williams has a lot more range as far as former funny men/dramatic actors go.

I agree that McCarthy's characters come off not as human as Murray's, but how much of that is her director? Her material? Don't you think she's getting typecast a little bit due to her weight and looks?

I'd like to see her get a chance in a real dramatic role, without playing off her weight or looks for laughs.

[JasonEvans]

Actually, he played very much the same role in Moonrise Kingdom. He plays a lot of sad old guys with a humor twist. I have not seen Grand Budapest yet, and Hyde Park/Monuments Men did not interest me. His Zombieland role really doesn't count as 1) it was pretty small and 2) he played this guy named "Bill Murray."

I like Bill Murray as much as the next guy, but let's not pretend he has a whole lot of range. Robin Williams has a lot more range as far as former funny men/dramatic actors go.

I agree that McCarthy's characters come off not as human as Murray's, but how much of that is her director? Her material? Don't you think she's getting typecast a little bit due to her weight and looks?

I'd like to see her get a chance in a real dramatic role, without playing off her weight or looks for laughs.

You know what is sad, when typecast comedians venture off the beaten path, audiences tend to punish them for it. I wonder if everyone who complains about how godawful recent Adam Sandler movies have been bothered to see Punch Drunk Love ($17 mil boxoffice), Reign Over Me ($19 mil boxoffice), or Funny People ($51 mil boxoffice). I mean, why should he take a risk with something like Funny People when he can just churn out low-brow Grown Ups sequels that you can book for about $150 mil in boxoffice instead?

-Jason "by the way, Punch, Reign, and Funny People are the only three movies Sadler has made since 1998 that register as fresh on Rotten Tomatoes... decent flicks and no one went to see them" Evans

[Olympic Fan]

Actually, he played very much the same role in Moonrise Kingdom. He plays a lot of sad old guys with a humor twist. I have not seen Grand Budapest yet, and Hyde Park/Monuments Men did not interest me. His Zombieland role really doesn't count as 1) it was pretty small and 2) he played this guy named "Bill Murray."

I like Bill Murray as much as the next guy, but let's not pretend he has a whole lot of range. Robin Williams has a lot more range as far as former funny men/dramatic actors go.

I agree that McCarthy's characters come off not as human as Murray's, but how much of that is her director? Her material? Don't you think she's getting typecast a little bit due to her weight and looks?

I'd like to see her get a chance in a real dramatic role, without playing off her weight or looks for laughs.

Just because you didn't see the film does not invalidate Jason's observation.

While I agree that his forte is the brash, disheveled, rude comic character -- Meatballs, Stripes, Groundhog Day, Ghostbusters being the prime examples -- I would argue that there is far more range and nuance in his portrayals than you give him credit for -- his Bob Harris in Lost in Translation is a far different character than John in Stripes, Peter Venkman in Ghostbusters or Phil in Groundhog Day. His Frank Cross in Scrooged is rude and brash, but very different than Venkman or Tripper.

You might not have seen it, but his FDR on Hyde Park on the Hudson was by far the best thing in that badly written biopic. And it's a far cry from his comic roles.

So is his small role is Tom Robbins overlooked masterpiece Cradle Will Rock as the unhappy ventriloquist Tommy Crickshaw.

The same year he did Ghostbusters he played the lead in the Razor's Edge -- a 180 degree turn.

I think it's interesting how Wes Anderson has used him -- not only in Moonrise Kingdom and the Life Aquatic, but also in the Royal Tenenbaums, Rushmore and Dajeeling Limited. He's been cast as Polonious in Hamlet and Arthur Denton in Little Shop of Horrors... one of my guilty pleasures is his Walter Ritchie in The Man Who Knew Too Little -- a very different comic role than the usual Murray character.

He's also carved a nice career as a character actor -- amazing the films he shows up in from Wild Things to Tootsie to Ed Wood ...

Sorry, I'm with Jason on this. Murray has certainly built his career on a certain comic character, but he's had great success beyond that character ...

[FerryFor50]

You know what is sad, when typecast comedians venture off the beaten path, audiences tend to punish them for it. I wonder if everyone who complains about how godawful recent Adam Sandler movies have been bothered to see Punch Drunk Love ($17 mil boxoffice), Reign Over Me ($19 mil boxoffice), or Funny People ($51 mil boxoffice). I mean, why should he take a risk with something like Funny People when he can just churn out low-brow Grown Ups sequels that you can book for about $150 mil in boxoffice instead?

-Jason "by the way, Punch, Reign, and Funny People are the only three movies Sadler has made since 1998 that register as fresh on Rotten Tomatoes... decent flicks and no one went to see them" Evans

Agreed, but you forgot about Spanglish. :)

What's good about Sandler is that he makes enough $$ to be able to take risks, because he knows he could always make Grown Ups 3 to refill the coffers. He should only worry when people stop going to see those movies. Then he is screwed.

There have been plenty of former funny men who transitioned to drama and had success. The biggest one that comes to mind is Tom Hanks. Remember, he used to be in Bosom Buddies. Think anyone asks about Peter Scolari for roles any more?

Robin Williams, Will Smith (Fresh Prince), Bruce Willis (Moonlighting), Jamie Foxx (In Living Color)... They've all made the transition successfully.

But you don't see a lot of women doing it...

[FerryFor50]

Just because you didn't see the film does not invalidate Jason's observation.

While I agree that his forte is the brash, disheveled, rude comic character -- Meatballs, Stripes, Groundhog Day, Ghostbusters being the prime examples -- I would argue that there is far more range and nuance in his portrayals than you give him credit for -- his Bob Harris in Lost in Translation is a far different character than John in Stripes, Peter Venkman in Ghostbusters or Phil in Groundhog Day. His Frank Cross in Scrooged is rude and brash, but very different than Venkman or Tripper.

You might not have seen it, but his FDR on Hyde Park on the Hudson was by far the best thing in that badly written biopic. And it's a far cry from his comic roles.

So is his small role is Tom Robbins overlooked masterpiece Cradle Will Rock as the unhappy ventriloquist Tommy Crickshaw.

The same year he did Ghostbusters he played the lead in the Razor's Edge -- a 180 degree turn.

I think it's interesting how Wes Anderson has used him -- not only in Moonrise Kingdom and the Life Aquatic, but also in the Royal Tenenbaums, Rushmore and Dajeeling Limited. He's been cast as Polonious in Hamlet and Arthur Denton in Little Shop of Horrors... one of my guilty pleasures is his Walter Ritchie in The Man Who Knew Too Little -- a very different comic role than the usual Murray character.

He's also carved a nice career as a character actor -- amazing the films he shows up in from Wild Things to Tootsie to Ed Wood ...

Sorry, I'm with Jason on this. Murray has certainly built his career on a certain comic character, but he's had great success beyond that character ...

My point wasn't about his comedy vs his dramatic roles.

My point was that in his dramatic roles, Murray tends to play/be cast in the same character. FDR, of course, is not going to be the same role because it is based on an actual historical figure. It is his fictional dramatic roles that don't range very much. What about the St Vincent trailer that is out makes anyone think he's playing outside that typical role?

I didn't see Hyde Park because I knew it wasn't going to be very good. Tomato meter agrees with me - 36% critics, 32% audiences.

Same with Monuments Men. (32%, 46%)

[Duvall]

To be clear, McCarthy may be suffering from typecasting, but she definitely has the range to play roles other than the Belushiesque rogue.

[BD80]

... There have been plenty of former funny men who transitioned to drama and had success. The biggest one that comes to mind is Tom Hanks. Remember, he used to be in Bosom Buddies. ...

But you don't see a lot of women doing it...

You don't see a lot of female actresses having long acting careers. Unfortunately, their success is too often tied to their "sex appeal." There are exceptions but not many.

[brevity]

I mean, why should he take a risk with something like Funny People when he can just churn out low-brow Grown Ups sequels that you can book for about $150 mil in boxoffice instead?

This is probably true, but misleading. Until Grown Ups 2, Adam Sandler had never made a sequel, which placed him in rareified air among the Hollywood A-list. I think Forbes made a list of the 20 biggest actors a while back, and 16 of them had revisited a movie role at some point. The only ones who hadn't were Denzel Washington, Meryl Streep, Leonardo DiCaprio, and Adam Sandler. Mark Wahlberg can join that list, at least for the next year, as can Nicole Kidman.

You can argue that Adam Sandler is revisiting a movie role by playing the same character over and over, but it's really not the same thing as making a sequel. Almost every movie star became that way because they continued to associate themselves with a certain kind of character. That's pretty much the business model. You don't see many chameleons making the big bucks.

Which brings us to Bill Murray. His penchant for making himself odder and scarcer as he got older turned out to be a great (if unintentional) career move. Like every funny actor before and after him, his peak freshness date expired. But unlike them, he's diversified somewhat, limited his exposure, and kept himself in high demand. (As for The Monuments Men, his pairing with Bob Balaban ended up being maybe the only purely interesting subplot in an otherwise uneven movie.)

[CameronBornAndBred]

I think it's interesting how Wes Anderson has used him -- not only in Moonrise Kingdom and the Life Aquatic, but also in the Royal Tenenbaums, Rushmore and Dajeeling Limited. He's been cast as Polonious in Hamlet and Arthur Denton in Little Shop of Horrors... one of my guilty pleasures is his Walter Ritchie in The Man Who Knew Too Little -- a very different comic role than the usual Murray character.

This brings up something (enjoy the thread hijack, your top 5 choices are wrong so we might as well get off the beaten path a bit) that I was thinking about after Ferry's first post about Bill Murray. I agree with OF, but Bill Murray is definitely never going to be considered a character actor. We see Bill Murray, and we THINK Bill Murray. The exact same thing goes with Owen Wilson. He's an Anderson regular too (sometimes writing partner, as well), and even though he can be playing a different character, you just think "Owen Wilson". The differences in his roles in Midnight in Paris, Night at the Museum, Zoolander and Marley & Me for a quick example are pretty broad, BUT it's Owen effing Wilson. Like Murray, the voice is always the same, the tone is the same, even if the characters are different. He's good. I like him. I like both of them. But neither is a Stephen Root, for example, who can become a new person with every movie.
I can watch O' Brother Where Art Thou, then Office Space and laugh at both yet still have to double check that the same guy was in both movies.
I will always think of Bill Murray as Bill Murray. (The guy who played Bill Murray in Zombieland.)

[JasonEvans]

I will always think of Bill Murray as Bill Murray. (The guy who played Bill Murray in Zombieland.)

You know, few actors have been made for a role the way Bill Murray was made to play Bill Murray in Zombieland. He was perfect for the role. I don't think anyone else could have played it. I have to think that when they wrote that part of the movie, they were thinking, "You know who should play Bill Murray? Bill Murray!"

Oh, and I also heartily approve of the thread hijack. It has served to distract me from the fact that Transuckers 4 has been making $10 mil a day mid-week, which pretty much makes it even more of a mortal lock for our Top 5. Sigh...

-Jason "side note: here's a good article (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3866&p=.htm) from BOMojo about how disappointing June was at the boxoffice" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Here is an update on the actual Top 5 contest... as if it matters at this point.

Transformers 4 made $36.4 mil over the holiday weekend, a big drop of 63.6% from its opening weekend. But, despite that large drop, it stands at $174.7 million in total boxoffice and seems to be on track to make something around $250 million total. So, it is a mortal lock to be high up in our Top 5.

None of the other new releases (Tammy, Deliver Us From Evil, and Earth To Echo) did anywhere close to the kind of business that would make them worth mentioning in the contest.

Maleficent only fell 26% from last weekend and made another $6.1 million over the weekend. It is at $213.8 million and is making the Top 5, for sure. That means nobody gets to go 5-for-5.

Here are the current standings:


Captain America 2 - $257.8 mil
X-Men: DOFP - $227.0 mil
Maleficent - $213.8 mil (probably won't catch X-Men)
Spidey 2 - $200.3 mil (it has not yet reported weekend numbers, but the number will be insignificant)
Godzilla - $197.9 mil (it will not catch Spidey)
Transformers 4 - $174.7 mil
22 Jump Street - $158.8 mil (still going strong at $9.4 mil this weekend, but not a top 5 contender)
Neighbors - $148.0 mil
HTTYDragon 2 - $140.0 mil (made $8.7 mil over the weekend, it won't even make $175 mil... huge shocker)


This coming week brings another strong contender in Dawn of Planet of the Apes, which I am seeing tomorrow. Buzz is really strong on this one and the early reviews are excellent. I don't think we'll see an opening in the $80+ mil range (more like about $70 mil) but if it holds up well it could be a contender in our contest.

-Jason "I'm really excited for Dawn, Rotten Tomatoes has it at 94% so far" Evans

[ncexnyc]

Add three more tickets sales for Maleficent. I'm not a Transformers fan and my eight year old gets extremely bored and annoying if a movie doesn't hold his attention span and clocking in at approximately 2 1/2 hrs, I figured I'd play it safe with the shorter and fan friendly Maleficent.

Maleficent didn't do much for my son, but my wife and I both enjoyed it.

[YmoBeThere]

Add three more tickets sales for Maleficent. I'm not a Transformers fan and my eight year old gets extremely bored and annoying if a movie doesn't hold his attention span and clocking in at approximately 2 1/2 hrs, I figured I'd play it safe with the shorter and fan friendly Maleficent.

Maleficent didn't do much for my son, but my wife and I both enjoyed it.

Yes, I can understand Angelina appeals to more adult tastes...

[FerryFor50]

Saw Edge of Tomorrow this afternoon. Was pretty good, but not transcendent. I thought, and still think, that the movie would have been better without Tom Cruise (or any major lead actor) in it. What I liked about District 9 was that it really didn't have ANYONE in it. My other issue was that the ending felt like a bit of a cop out. Could have ended it a couple of minutes earlier, but that's just me.

Other than that, I liked it.

[gurufrisbee]

How to Train Your Dragon 2 was fantastic. Clearly it had way too much quality to be a box office champion.

[Olympic Fan]

Looks like Planet of the Apes is headed for a $70 million opening. That's not bad, but not great either -- $20 million less than Godzilla and Spidey. It's going to have to have strong legs to get to $200 million.

Read an interesting piece in EW about this summer's box office -- overall, it's not bad (fourth best over the last 10 years). But it lacks blockbusters. Since 2005, at least one film every year has hit $380 million in domestic box office. We're not going to have a $280 million film this year.

One other point I didn't realize ... many summer films are still awaiting release in Europe and South America. They were held up to avoid competing with the World Cup!

[YmoBeThere]

Read an interesting piece in EW about this summer's box office -- overall, it's not bad (fourth best over the last 10 years). But it lacks blockbusters. Since 2005, at least one film every year has hit $380 million in domestic box office. We're not going to have a $280 million film this year.

Did they control for inflation? I know it has been moderate over the last couple of years. But it is persistent.

[JasonEvans]

Final numbers do not come out until tomorrow, but it is clear that Apes will be a player in our contest. It opened a bit better than most in Hollywood had expected with a $73 million weekend. The estimates kept on growing all weekend (it started out looking like a $60 mil weekend) because it became clear that there was strong word-of-mouth building and driving better than expected traffic on Saturday and Sunday. While a $73 mil opening for a film with so-so or poor reviews would make earning $200 mil almost impossible, a film like Apes (with great reviews and word of mouth) seems likely to get at 3x multiplier (or better) from opening to final boxoffice total. We will need to see how it holds up mid-week and in weekend number 2, but a total boxoffice haul in the low-mid $200s certainly seems possible.

-Jason "the top 5 remains totally up for grabs..." Evans

[BD80]

... -Jason "the top 5 remains totally up for grabs..." Evans

And Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles opens August 8

[dpslaw]

I must say that Malificent's legs are impressive. :) The movie has a decent shot at passing X-Men's domestic gross. It is now down approximately $4 million, and after the weekend, should be down by a little more than $2 million. Not bad for no votes!

[NashvilleDevil]

After last weekend top 5:

1. Captain America 2 - $258,409,981
2. X-Men: Days of Future Past - $230,475,000
3. Maleficent - $228,367,000
4. Transformers 4 - $227,157,000
5. Amazing Spider Man 2 - $201,597,625

Transformers will be #2 before the end of the week and has an outside shot to overtake Captain America. I am still interested to see what Guardians of the Galaxy does since I picked it for the top 5.

[JasonEvans]

After last weekend top 5:

1. Captain America 2 - $258,409,981
2. X-Men: Days of Future Past - $230,475,000
3. Maleficent - $228,367,000
4. Transformers 4 - $227,157,000
5. Amazing Spider Man 2 - $201,597,625

Transformers will be #2 before the end of the week and has an outside shot to overtake Captain America. I am still interested to see what Guardians of the Galaxy does since I picked it for the top 5.

After this past weekend, it is clear that Spidey will not hold onto that #5 spot. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes made $36 million, a drop of just 50% from its opening weekend, which is a fabulous hold. There is every indication that the film is getting strong word of mouth and that it will have long legs (it helps that the competition was fairly weak this past weekend and won't get too tough until Guardians opens in 2 weekends).

Dawn is at $139 million through 2 weeks and is running about 33% ahead of Rise of the Planet of the Apes, which ended up making $176 million. If Dawn stays ahead by 33%, it will make $234 million. Now, I don't expect it to do quite that well, but $225 million should be doable. Regardless, it is certain to pass Spidey, but I don't think it will quite catch Maleficent or XMen.

Meanwhile, we await Guardians. I am betting it ends up being somewhere in the $190-$210 million kind of range. It is going to be tough for an August release to do much more than that, though it has had one of the most aggressive marketing campaigns of the entire year.

-Jason "this weekend brings Lucy and Hercules, neither of which will make more than maybe $100 million" Evans

[Udaman]

Pretty wild that nobody is going to do better than 3 out of 5.

[NashvilleDevil]

Pretty wild that nobody is going to do better than 3 out of 5.

Not if Guardians makes the top 5. There will be someone that got 4/5.

[Faison1]

After last weekend top 5:

1. Captain America 2 - $258,409,981
2. X-Men: Days of Future Past - $230,475,000
3. Maleficent - $228,367,000
4. Transformers 4 - $227,157,000
5. Amazing Spider Man 2 - $201,597,625

Transformers will be #2 before the end of the week and has an outside shot to overtake Captain America. I am still interested to see what Guardians of the Galaxy does since I picked it for the top 5.

What a sad state of affairs. It's amazing to me what's happened to the movie industry. Maybe this has been covered in the previous 11 pages, but Wow! Every movie is from a comic book.

What happened to the Summer Blockbusters like Top Gun, Ghostbusters, Trading Places, Ferris Buehler, Back to the Future? Pretty much every summer in the 80's had good movies. At the time, I would have never guessed it was the Golden Age of Hollywood. (I know there were other glorious periods, but the 80's were pretty good for film.)

[ncexnyc]

What a sad state of affairs. It's amazing to me what's happened to the movie industry. Maybe this has been covered in the previous 11 pages, but Wow! Every movie is from a comic book.

What happened to the Summer Blockbusters like Top Gun, Ghostbusters, Trading Places, Ferris Buehler, Back to the Future? Pretty much every summer in the 80's had good movies. At the time, I would have never guessed it was the Golden Age of Hollywood. (I know there were other glorious periods, but the 80's were pretty good for film.)

In the movie “Gladiator”, Maximus asked a crowd of stunned on lookers, “Are you not entertained? ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED?!?! Is this not why you're here?!”

Well having seen four of our current top five movies, I can say yes I was entertained. I grew up on Silver Age Marvel comics and thought Kirby and Lee were the greatest thing since sliced bread. Godzilla is right outside our top five and I watched the Raymond Burr version over and over again on WOR’s, “Million Dollar Movie.”

So these movies are something special to me and while some of you thumb your nose at them because they offend your sensibility as to what constitutes a good movie, I’m thrilled to spend my entertainment dollars on these films. I’ll probably be seeing, “Lucy” this weekend and can’t wait for “Guardians of the Galaxy”, “Teenage Mutant Turtles”, and, “Sin City 2.”

[Faison1]

In the movie “Gladiator”, Maximus asked a crowd of stunned on lookers, “Are you not entertained? ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED?!?! Is this not why you're here?!”

Well having seen four of our current top five movies, I can say yes I was entertained. I grew up on Silver Age Marvel comics and thought Kirby and Lee were the greatest thing since sliced bread. Godzilla is right outside our top five and I watched the Raymond Burr version over and over again on WOR’s, “Million Dollar Movie.”

So these movies are something special to me and while some of you thumb your nose at them because they offend your sensibility as to what constitutes a good movie, I’m thrilled to spend my entertainment dollars on these films. I’ll probably be seeing, “Lucy” this weekend and can’t wait for “Guardians of the Galaxy”, “Teenage Mutant Turtles”, and, “Sin City 2.”

Definitely didn't mean to offend you. Obviously, by the numbers, I would have offended half the Nation if that was my intent.

My commentary was directed more towards Hollywood. It's become formulaic as a result of the confusing evolution of the movie business. Hollywood's only reaction to change has been to make comic book or sci-fi films. And don't get me wrong.....I'm a huge Sci-Fi fan. But, the difference between Star Wars, Close Encounters, and Aliens and that of Elysium, Oblivion, and Promethius is pretty huge.

As a friend of mine who is a Hollywood actor told me, "Today, American Beauty would not have been made."

[JasonEvans]

I'm a huge Sci-Fi fan. But, the difference between Star Wars, Close Encounters, and Aliens and that of Elysium, Oblivion, and Promethius is pretty huge.


Nice cherry picking ;)

Star Wars, Close Encounters, and Aliens are three of the truly great sci-fi films of all time. They defined various aspects of the genre and I will agree that we have not seen truly seminal films like that very much lately. But, we have had plenty of quality in the sci-fi/action genre in recent years. Inception, Avatar, Looper, Edge of Tomorrow, and Dawn of the Apes were all pure sci-fi and are each outstanding films. We are obviously in the golden age of comic book movies with stuff like Avengers and Dark Knight setting a high bar and many films coming close to them in terms of comic book movie quality.

I am not saying we are at the level we were in the late 70s/early 80s, which also brought us Blade Runner and The Thing, but it is not like nothing good is coming out of Hollywood. I somewhat lament the lack of anything truly original from anyone not named Christopher Nolan but we are getting more than enough high quality stuff -- even the stuff based on graphic novels or comic books -- so that I am quite happy.

-Jason "notice I didn't even talk about the early 2000s which gave us the Lord of the Rings trilogy and the first batch of X-Men films... some high quality stuff there!" Evans

[JasonEvans]

I’ll probably be seeing, “Lucy” this weekend

Ummmm... I think you are better off saving your money. It starts out well and is a kinda cool and tense movie for the first 2/3rds or so, but then it falls off a cliff in a brutally bad way. I mean, the final 30 minutes were just awful. I spent the first half of the film thinking, "hmmm, I wonder where they will go with this?" and the second half thinking, "THIS is where they are going!??!?!!? Argh!!!"

The film essentially closes with a ten minute time travel thing that is straight out of Terrence Malick's The Tree of Life... and that ain't a compliment. Ugh! Awful! Do yourself a favor, if you do see it, walk out at the part where she starts time traveling.

-Jason "the film largely takes place in Paris and features a Taiwanese bad guy -- it will do very nice boxoffice overseas (which may have been Luc Besson's only real goal with this thing)" Evans

[Reisen]

Yeah, Lucy looks horrible, and I don't trust Besson to make a decent movie anymore.

I echo the comments on what a great decade for film the 80's was. That said, I agree that we've seen some really high quality superhero movies in the past decade, easily better than the 80's / 90's versions. Part of the reason comic book movies are so good is because we've come a long way from fare like "Batman & Robin".

[Faison1]

Nice cherry picking ;)

Star Wars, Close Encounters, and Aliens are three of the truly great sci-fi films of all time. They defined various aspects of the genre and I will agree that we have not seen truly seminal films like that very much lately. But, we have had plenty of quality in the sci-fi/action genre in recent years. Inception, Avatar, Looper, Edge of Tomorrow, and Dawn of the Apes were all pure sci-fi and are each outstanding films. We are obviously in the golden age of comic book movies with stuff like Avengers and Dark Knight setting a high bar and many films coming close to them in terms of comic book movie quality.

I am not saying we are at the level we were in the late 70s/early 80s, which also brought us Blade Runner and The Thing, but it is not like nothing good is coming out of Hollywood. I somewhat lament the lack of anything truly original from anyone not named Christopher Nolan but we are getting more than enough high quality stuff -- even the stuff based on graphic novels or comic books -- so that I am quite happy.

-Jason "notice I didn't even talk about the early 2000s which gave us the Lord of the Rings trilogy and the first batch of X-Men films... some high quality stuff there!" Evans

You're right....that wasn't fair of me to cherry pick like that. My only point was that Hollywood is in a tailspin when it comes to creativity. They are stuck in a rut of taking "used" stories and bandaging them with new high tech effects.

I agree that there have been some good films, but they seem to focus more on the technology, and less on story or acting ability.

Avatar (which I thoroughly enjoyed) epitomizes this new trend. It is simply "Dances with Wolves" in 3-D.

Again, I agree there are some good films out there....it's just interesting to watch a very quickly changing industry...just like music, newspapers, magazines, the Post Office: lacking direction and not sure of the future.

[FerryFor50]

You're right....that wasn't fair of me to cherry pick like that. My only point was that Hollywood is in a tailspin when it comes to creativity. They are stuck in a rut of taking "used" stories and bandaging them with new high tech effects.

I agree that there have been some good films, but they seem to focus more on the technology, and less on story or acting ability.

Avatar (which I thoroughly enjoyed) epitomizes this new trend. It is simply "Dances with Wolves" in 3-D.

Again, I agree there are some good films out there....it's just interesting to watch a very quickly changing industry...just like music, newspapers, magazines, the Post Office: lacking direction and not sure of the future.

Curious that you used Avatar as the example of a movie that falls into a "used" story. Avatar was an original, written by James Cameron. I'd also argue that Oblivion and Edge of Tomorrow were not un-original sci-fi. In fact, Oblivion was touted to be based on a graphic novel, but it didn't actually exist...

http://www.bleedingcool.com/2013/04/12/oblivion-based-on-the-non-existing-graphic-novel/

Edge of Tomorrow was based on a 1958 book. But how many great sci-fi movies were based on books? (Hint: Just about all of them)

I generally agree that you are seeing a lot of re-treads, but let's not fool ourselves into thinking this hasn't *always* been the case in Hollywood.

Think about the '80s... how many movies ended up being made simply for the toy sales and crossover Happy Meal promotions? And how many comedies were featuring gratuitous T&A rather than focusing on being funny?

Every decade has a common theme in Hollywood, and it's based on what makes money at the box office. This decade, it's special effects and comic book adaptations.

[Duvall]

As a friend of mine who is a Hollywood actor told me, "Today, American Beauty would not have been made."

I take your point about preferring original blockbusters to sequels and adaptations of existing properties, but I'm not sure I follow you here. What is it about American Beauty that would make it difficult to make today? Seems like David O. Russell comes out with a similar movie every year or so.

[FerryFor50]

I take your point about preferring original blockbusters to sequels and adaptations of existing properties, but I'm not sure I follow you here. What is it about American Beauty that would make it difficult to make today? Seems like David O. Russell comes out with a similar movie every year or so.

Agreed.

And honestly, I think it's MORE likely that American Beauty would have gotten made today. With all the indie film festivals, Kickstarter, etc... it would have been no problem to get it made.

Think of Beasts of the Southern Wild... that got Oscar recognition. I'd argue the opposite - movies like "Beasts of the Southern Wild" would not have been made in 1999. Or at least, it might have been made, but NEVER would have received the same accolades.

[cato]

Avatar (which I thoroughly enjoyed) epitomizes this new trend. It is simply "Dances with Wolves" in 3-D.

You cannot level that charge at Avatar and call Star Wars original. Both borrowed heavily from broad themes and specific narrative structures that preceded it. Almost all movies and novels do.

[JasonEvans]

Yeah, Lucy looks horrible, and I don't trust Besson to make a decent movie anymore.

So I looked at Rotten Tomatoes and was stunned to see a fair number of positive reviews for Lucy. I was flabbergasted. Then, I read some of them. What follows are snippets from POSITIVE reviews of Lucy. I repeat, this is what people who liked it are saying --


Is it possible for a movie to be brainy and stupid at the same time? - IndieWIRE

Mindless and mixed up, but propulsive and fun. It is charming in its stupidity - The Guardian

Garish, trippy, and wildly uneven - Variety

Winningly daffy, "Lucy" is writer-director Luc Besson's best film since "The Professional" and perhaps his most ludicrous since then, too. - Screen International

It's creative, even when not entirely original. It's exciting, even when just a bit aimless. And it's ambitious, even when it doesn't seem like it has a complete idea of what it's doing. - Hollywood.com


I repeat, those are the positive reviews. The negative ones are... well... a bit harsher.

-Jason "it was a frustrating flick because it often felt like it was on the verge of something really cool and interesting... and then it took a turn into absurdity" Evans

[Faison1]

Curious that you used Avatar as the example of a movie that falls into a "used" story. Avatar was an original, written by James Cameron. I'd also argue that Oblivion and Edge of Tomorrow were not un-original sci-fi. In fact, Oblivion was touted to be based on a graphic novel, but it didn't actually exist....

Avatar may have been written by James Cameron, but the storyline is about as common as they come.....and surprisingly close to that of Dances With Wolves: Disillusioned soldier goes off to find himself in farthest reaches of world/universe. Ends up falling in love with native culture and it's women. Fights perceived evil conquering Empire that he used to be a part of. Becomes savior/hero/leader of his new found friends. Completely shuns his former self and becomes a citizen of the new world in which he lives.


I generally agree that you are seeing a lot of re-treads, but let's not fool ourselves into thinking this hasn't *always* been the case in Hollywood.

Think about the '80s... how many movies ended up being made simply for the toy sales and crossover Happy Meal promotions? And how many comedies were featuring gratuitous T&A rather than focusing on being funny?

Too many to count. Having said that, yes, I noticed the trend of T&A in the '80's, and I miss it.

[Reisen]

Just to pile on to Besson:

I liked The Professional, Fifth Element, the original Transporter, and the original Taken. But the subsequent Transporter and Taken movies were a big drop off, and the absolute killer for me was "3 Days to Kill". Yes, I know McG directed, but Besson was involved. 3 Days to Kill might possibly be the worst movie I've ever seen.

[Faison1]

I take your point about preferring original blockbusters to sequels and adaptations of existing properties, but I'm not sure I follow you here. What is it about American Beauty that would make it difficult to make today? Seems like David O. Russell comes out with a similar movie every year or so.


Agreed.

And honestly, I think it's MORE likely that American Beauty would have gotten made today. With all the indie film festivals, Kickstarter, etc... it would have been no problem to get it made.

Think of Beasts of the Southern Wild... that got Oscar recognition. I'd argue the opposite - movies like "Beasts of the Southern Wild" would not have been made in 1999. Or at least, it might have been made, but NEVER would have received the same accolades.

It's primarily a funding issue. And secondarily a marketing issue. David O. may be able to fund his films, but everyone else seems to be struggling to raise cash for medium sized independent films. (Beasts had a $1.8mm budget)

American Beauty's budget was $15mm in 1999. It had a rookie director who got the gig when 20 other directors turned it down. It had a relatively unknown screenwriter, and a plot that is still hard to describe. What's it about? Love, murder, suburban life, parental relationships? How do you market that?

In today's film world, unless it has a formula for success, studios are less likely to take a risk. If a film doesn't get good numbers in the first weekend, it gets yanked. I don't have numbers to support this, but I'm willing to bet the % of films going straight to DVD/video have grown dramatically in the last 10 years. Because of that, producers/studios don't throw around much cash anymore, unless it's Sci-fi or comic books.

The easiest way to see this, IMO, is the number of recognizable film actors taking gigs on TV shows....and *GASP*, doing ordinary commercials. There simply isn't enough traditional dramatic film work to go around any longer.

[CameronBornAndBred]

What a sad state of affairs. It's amazing to me what's happened to the movie industry. Maybe this has been covered in the previous 11 pages, but Wow! Every movie is from a comic book.

What happened to the Summer Blockbusters like Top Gun, Ghostbusters, Trading Places, Ferris Buehler, Back to the Future? Pretty much every summer in the 80's had good movies. At the time, I would have never guessed it was the Golden Age of Hollywood. (I know there were other glorious periods, but the 80's were pretty good for film.)


Definitely didn't mean to offend you. Obviously, by the numbers, I would have offended half the Nation if that was my intent.

My commentary was directed more towards Hollywood. It's become formulaic as a result of the confusing evolution of the movie business. Hollywood's only reaction to change has been to make comic book or sci-fi films. And don't get me wrong.....I'm a huge Sci-Fi fan. But, the difference between Star Wars, Close Encounters, and Aliens and that of Elysium, Oblivion, and Promethius is pretty huge.

As a friend of mine who is a Hollywood actor told me, "Today, American Beauty would not have been made."
As a curiosity, I randomly picked 1986 as the year to see what did well in the box office; I had no idea and was honestly looking to see if there were any films that did great that I could happily live without ever seeing again. There were a couple (Police Academy 3, prime example), but your cherry picking is well represented. I don't know about the rest of the 80's, but if '86 is a good sample, then your overall point is dead on.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/chart/?yr=1986&p=.htm

[Faison1]

As a curiosity, I randomly picked 1986 as the year to see what did well in the box office; I had no idea and was honestly looking to see if there were any films that did great that I could happily live without ever seeing again. There were a couple (Police Academy 3, prime example), but your cherry picking is well represented. I don't know about the rest of the 80's, but if '86 is a good sample, then your overall point is dead on.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/chart/?yr=1986&p=.htm

#24 on that list....they just don't make them like that anymore!! Ha, Ha! One of my all-time favorites.

[Olympic Fan]

As a curiosity, I randomly picked 1986 as the year to see what did well in the box office; I had no idea and was honestly looking to see if there were any films that did great that I could happily live without ever seeing again. There were a couple (Police Academy 3, prime example), but your cherry picking is well represented. I don't know about the rest of the 80's, but if '86 is a good sample, then your overall point is dead on.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/chart/?yr=1986&p=.htm

Not sure of what 1986 proves -- three of the top seven money-makers were sequels (Karate Kid II, Star Trek IV and Aliens). But there were some awfully good films that year Top Fun, Platoon, Back to School, Ferris Buehler -- even Crocadile Dundee.

1986 also produced the greatest sports movie of all time (No. 35 Hoosiers) and the single most underrated movie in film history (No. 71 Big Trouble in Little China).

[Faison1]

Not sure of what 1986 proves -- three of the top seven money-makers were sequels (Karate Kid II, Star Trek IV and Aliens). But there were some awfully good films that year Top Fun, Platoon, Back to School, Ferris Buehler -- even Crocadile Dundee.

1986 also produced the greatest sports movie of all time (No. 35 Hoosiers) and the single most underrated movie in film history (No. 71 Big Trouble in Little China).

That might have been Kurt Russell's best work....or a close second to The Thing.

[JasonEvans]

That might have been Kurt Russell's best work....or a close second to The Thing.

Are you forgetting about his awe-inspiring work as Snake Plissken in Escape From New York? In the early 80s he was in several films that started out as relatively forgettable, unambitious projects but somehow morphed into classics that stand the test of time. I still recall loving Used Cars, a film that very few people saw but everyone who saw it loved it. Then Kurt made The Best of Times, Overboard, and Tango and Cash... the magic was gone.

-Jason "Kurt is going to be in Fast and Furious 7... I think that is not a good sign" Evans

[FerryFor50]

So I looked at Rotten Tomatoes and was stunned to see a fair number of positive reviews for Lucy. I was flabbergasted. Then, I read some of them. What follows are snippets from POSITIVE reviews of Lucy. I repeat, this is what people who liked it are saying --



I repeat, those are the positive reviews. The negative ones are... well... a bit harsher.

-Jason "it was a frustrating flick because it often felt like it was on the verge of something really cool and interesting... and then it took a turn into absurdity" Evans

Wired has a pretty interesting take on why Lucy felt out of order...


http://www.wired.com/2014/07/luc-besson-lucy-2/

[CameronBornAndBred]

Then Kurt made The Best of Times, Overboard, and Tango and Cash... the magic was gone.

I love Overboard, that's one of those movies I'll watch whenever it's on tv.
By the way, on that list is the first Transformers movie. (Not done by MB, obviously.) It was beaten out by both My Little Pony and Care Bears 2. The last movie on that list is one of my favorites, too.

[Olympic Fan]

Are you forgetting about his awe-inspiring work as Snake Plissken in Escape From New York? In the early 80s he was in several films that started out as relatively forgettable, unambitious projects but somehow morphed into classics that stand the test of time. I still recall loving Used Cars, a film that very few people saw but everyone who saw it loved it. Then Kurt made The Best of Times, Overboard, and Tango and Cash... the magic was gone.

-Jason "Kurt is going to be in Fast and Furious 7... I think that is not a good sign" Evans

Best of Times was written by Ron Shelton, who was so unhappy with the way it turned out that he sued to get his name off the credits. Shelton, of course, went on to make Bull Durham. He wrote the role of Crash Davis for Russell (who was briefly a minor league baseball player), but the studio insisted on Costner for the role.

Agree that Russell's career slumped in the late 1980s, but I thought he had a strong comeback in 2004 as Herb Brooks in Miracle. He's had his moments in the last 20 years -- Backdraft, Stargate ...

Interesting trivia about Russell -- his first film was in a small part as a 10-year-old in the 1963 Elvis Presley film It Happened at the World's Fair ... he later voiced Elvis in Forrest Gump, played Elvis in John Carpenter's 1979 TV movie bio-pic and again donned Elvis makeup as part of the heist flic 3,000 Miles to Graceland.

And, while Escape from New York and Used Cars are great, I'll always argue that Big Trouble in Little China is his greatest film.

[JBDuke]

Best of Times was written by Ron Shelton, who was so unhappy with the way it turned out that he sued to get his name off the credits. Shelton, of course, went on to make Bull Durham. He wrote the role of Crash Davis for Russell (who was briefly a minor league baseball player), but the studio insisted on Costner for the role.

Agree that Russell's career slumped in the late 1980s, but I thought he had a strong comeback in 2004 as Herb Brooks in Miracle. He's had his moments in the last 20 years -- Backdraft, Stargate ...

Interesting trivia about Russell -- his first film was in a small part as a 10-year-old in the 1963 Elvis Presley film It Happened at the World's Fair ... he later voiced Elvis in Forrest Gump, played Elvis in John Carpenter's 1979 TV movie bio-pic and again donned Elvis makeup as part of the heist flic 3,000 Miles to Graceland.

And, while Escape from New York and Used Cars are great, I'll always argue that Big Trouble in Little China is his greatest film.

Okay. You people sit tight, hold the fort and keep the home fires burning. And if we're not back by dawn... call the president.

[snowdenscold]

Best of Times was written by Ron Shelton, who was so unhappy with the way it turned out that he sued to get his name off the credits. Shelton, of course, went on to make Bull Durham. He wrote the role of Crash Davis for Russell (who was briefly a minor league baseball player), but the studio insisted on Costner for the role.

Agree that Russell's career slumped in the late 1980s, but I thought he had a strong comeback in 2004 as Herb Brooks in Miracle. He's had his moments in the last 20 years -- Backdraft, Stargate ...

Interesting trivia about Russell -- his first film was in a small part as a 10-year-old in the 1963 Elvis Presley film It Happened at the World's Fair ... he later voiced Elvis in Forrest Gump, played Elvis in John Carpenter's 1979 TV movie bio-pic and again donned Elvis makeup as part of the heist flic 3,000 Miles to Graceland.

And, while Escape from New York and Used Cars are great, I'll always argue that Big Trouble in Little China is his greatest film.

There were two roommates in my freshman dorm (Southgate) whose names were Kurt and Russell. They ended up plastering Kurt Russell posters and the like all over their room and on the outside of their door. Hadn't thought about that in years, but still kinda funny...

[JasonEvans]

Lucy is on course for a $40+ mil opening weekend, better than Hollywood had expected and the product of a really good marketing campaign that created some nice buzz around the film. But, it got just a C+ Cinemascore on its first night, a truly awful figure and one which could result in disastrous word-of-mouth. I can't even tell you how horrible that Cinemascore is for the first night of a film. Awful!

-Jason "anyone see it after my warnings to STAY AWAY?" Evans

[camion]

Lucy is on course for a $40+ mil opening weekend, better than Hollywood had expected and the product of a really good marketing campaign that created some nice buzz around the film. But, it got just a C+ Cinemascore on its first night, a truly awful figure and one which could result in disastrous word-of-mouth. I can't even tell you how horrible that Cinemascore is for the first night of a film. Awful!

-Jason "anyone see it after my warnings to STAY AWAY?" Evans

Do you mean the marketing campaign emphasized that SCARLETT JOHANSSON is starring? That's mostly what I got from the trailers.

[NashvilleDevil]

After this weekend here is the top 5:

1. Captain America - $258,712,272
2. Transformers: Age of Extinction - $236,352,000
3. Maleficent - $232,119,000
4. X-Men: Days of Future Past - $231,278,000
5. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 - $202,084,843

My dark horse pick Guardians of the Galaxy is out this weekend. From what I have read the buzz for this movie is good but as Jason has said the release date may end up hurting its chances. If everything holds this will be the first summer since 2001 that there will not a movie that hits the $300 million mark.

[FerryFor50]

Lucy is on course for a $40+ mil opening weekend, better than Hollywood had expected and the product of a really good marketing campaign that created some nice buzz around the film. But, it got just a C+ Cinemascore on its first night, a truly awful figure and one which could result in disastrous word-of-mouth. I can't even tell you how horrible that Cinemascore is for the first night of a film. Awful!

-Jason "anyone see it after my warnings to STAY AWAY?" Evans

I still plan on seeing it. Because Scarlett Johansson. ;)

[Olympic Fan]

Do you mean the marketing campaign emphasized that SCARLETT JOHANSSON is starring? That's mostly what I got from the trailers.

Isn't this the definition of star power?

The fact that an actress (or actor) can carry a crappy movie on name alone? How many current actor/actresses have that? I remember when Will Smith's name on a summer blockbuster was gold. Harrison Ford anchored some of the most profitable movies in history ... than all of a sudden, his name was nothing in the credits.

Tom Cruise has obviously lost it. His four most recent films -- two of them well-reviewed sci-fi movies -- have all underperformed at the box office. I think he can still deliver with the Mission Impossible franchise -- established when he was a box office giant -- but he's not enough to sell a movie anymore.

Interesting counterpoint to my argument -- Johansson was in the well-reviewed (4 1/2 stars on Rotten Tomatoes), but generally overlooked film Chef released in May. It did a nice, but nothing special $27 million. The thing is, I don't know how big a role Johannson has in it ... and all the promotions I saw featured lead Robert Downey Jr. Maybe iof he had been featured in the promos, it would have done $57 million.

[roywhite]

Are you forgetting about his awe-inspiring work as Snake Plissken in Escape From New York? In the early 80s he was in several films that started out as relatively forgettable, unambitious projects but somehow morphed into classics that stand the test of time. I still recall loving Used Cars, a film that very few people saw but everyone who saw it loved it. Then Kurt made The Best of Times, Overboard, and Tango and Cash... the magic was gone.

-Jason "Kurt is going to be in Fast and Furious 7... I think that is not a good sign" Evans

For some reason, I mainly remember Adrienne Barbeau when I think about that pic. :)

[Faison1]

After this weekend here is the top 5:

1. Captain America - $258,712,272
2. Transformers: Age of Extinction - $236,352,000
3. Maleficent - $232,119,000
4. X-Men: Days of Future Past - $231,278,000
5. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 - $202,084,843

My dark horse pick Guardians of the Galaxy is out this weekend. From what I have read the buzz for this movie is good but as Jason has said the release date may end up hurting its chances. If everything holds this will be the first summer since 2001 that there will not a movie that hits the $300 million mark.

After having complained about the woes of Hollywood and its current dependence on comic books and Sci-Fi, I will openly admit I am planning on seeing Guardians only because I am a fan of Chris Pratt.

Did anyone see The 5 Year Engagement? He was frickin' hilarious in that.

[JasonEvans]

After having complained about the woes of Hollywood and its current dependence on comic books and Sci-Fi, I will openly admit I am planning on seeing Guardians only because I am a fan of Chris Pratt.

Did anyone see The 5 Year Engagement? He was frickin' hilarious in that.

Pratt was the best part of Delivery Man too. He's been a consistently funny second banana his entire career (including his role on Parks and Rec), and there is nothing wrong with that but he is finally going to step to the forefront this weekend. It will be interesting to see how he does in the larger role. Marvel apparently thinks enough of him that it has already announced plans for a Guardians 2 (in summer 2017) and there is talk that the Guardians may team up with the Avengers in Avengers 3 (especially if they are taking on Thanos or some other cosmic foe, which would seem to make sense).

Anyway, Pratt is taking a huge step forward (in terms of paycheck and prominence in Hollywood). I have liked him since his early P&R days and enjoyed him in Moneyball too. I hope he succeeds here too.

-Jason "seeing Guardians on Wednesday -- I'll report back then!" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Interesting counterpoint to my argument -- Johansson was in the well-reviewed (4 1/2 stars on Rotten Tomatoes), but generally overlooked film Chef released in May. It did a nice, but nothing special $27 million. The thing is, I don't know how big a role Johannson has in it ... and all the promotions I saw featured lead Robert Downey Jr. Maybe iof he had been featured in the promos, it would have done $57 million.

You can't really count Chef or other small-scale releases as a product of star power. First of all, Scarlett had a small role in the film. The movie is a starring vehicle for Jon Favreau and he got a bunch of his movie friends (RDJr, Scarlett, Sophia Vergara, Dustin Hoffman, Oliver Platt, John Leguizamo) to be a part of it. The marketing of the flick has been very small-scale, so there wasn't a chance for the public to say, "oooh, lets go see the new RD Jr film!!" Frankly, because RD Jr's role is sorta small as well, that would have been unfair marketing anyway. Bottom line, you cannot judge Scarlett's star appeal off of Chef.

She does a lot of smaller, more artsy stuff. She did a flick called Under The Skin that is a sci-fi/horror kinda thing in which she gets naked quite a bit. When I first saw trailers for it, I thought it would garner some real attention, but it was just too weird and never got much mainstream attention. It came and went from theaters this spring and made only like $5 mil at the boxoffice.

Johansson was already a pretty big star, in my opinion. Lucy's performance certainly helps her in that regard. It may mean she can open just about any film and make it at least a first weekend hit, which is a big deal for Hollywood. She has now fallen into that crucial spot allowing her to play both the sexy lady and the strong action star. Those are pretty rare but when they come along, they can be very bankable. I am talking about Angelina Jolie, Jennifer Lawrence, Charlize Theron, and maybe Kristen Stewart and Cameron Diaz. I don't quite think Nathalie Portman or Mila Kunis could pull off a role like Lucy. Certainly Jennifer Anniston, Sandra Bullock, and Julia Roberts could not have made it work (though their age would not have worked with the way the story played out anyway).

Anyway, good for Scarlett, though I wish she had not achieved this in something that totally falls apart like Lucy.

-Jason "trying to think if I missed a big female star... I am sure I did but you get my point" Evans

[dball]

For some reason, I mainly remember Adrienne Barbeau when I think about that pic. :)

No love for Kurt's wife? :)

Agree about Adrienne though perhaps she's better in Swamp Thing.

[CameronBornAndBred]

No love for Kurt's wife? :)

Agree about Adrienne though perhaps she's better in Swamp Thing.
My favorite movie of hers was "Cannibal Women in the Avacado Jungle of Death". I watched it three weeks ago on my Kindle. A younger, less political Bill Maher was in it too. (If you want some great B movies to watch, spanning many decades, Prime has a bunch for your viewing pleasure.)

[Reisen]

She has now fallen into that crucial spot allowing her to play both the sexy lady and the strong action star... I am talking about Angelina Jolie, Jennifer Lawrence, Charlize Theron, and maybe Kristen Stewart and Cameron Diaz.

"trying to think if I missed a big female star... I am sure I did but you get my point"

Jolie is far and away the #1, with Lawrence an up and comer. How about Milla Jovovich?

[CameronBornAndBred]

Jolie is far and away the #1, with Lawrence an up and comer. How about Milla Jovovich?
I pondered Jovovich as a reply to Jason's list, but decided against it. She is a true action star, guaranteed, but she is not guaranteed to bring in an audience. I put her in line with Kate Beckinsale. She's fun to watch, will bring out the fanboys, but she won't be a reason for people to shell out money when they know it will be available viewing on their TV down the road. Maybe the issue with those two is they are too associated with their franchise flicks. (Mila = Resident Evil, Kate = Underworld)

[ncexnyc]

No love for Kurt's wife? :)

Agree about Adrienne though perhaps she's better in Swamp Thing.
I thought Adrienne was married to John Carpenter?

[JasonEvans]

I thought Adrienne was married to John Carpenter?

Yup, she was. There is a scene in Swamp Thing where, for no good reason, she shows off her ample tatas in all their glorious nudity. I am not sure why John Carpenter was so gung ho to put his wife's breasts on full view for the world -- maybe he wanted to show them off or perhaps he wanted to make millions of teenage boys jealous. In any event, that scene (which came along at a time when there was no such thing as the internet to fulfill your every porn need) along with many others that display her --uhhhh -- large talents have made her an icon to this day.

--Jason "it is probably not safe for work, but Break.com has 1:30 of the famous Swamp Thing scene... " Evans