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hurleyfor3
03-16-2014, 06:31 PM
Discuss the 2014 NCAA Tournament Midwest region here. Wichita State is the 1 seed. Regionals will be in Indianapolis.

Duke is the #3 seed. Champion plays the West champ.

NashvilleDevil
03-16-2014, 06:32 PM
I'll take it

luburch
03-16-2014, 06:32 PM
Brutal region. Good luck trying to pick this one.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
03-16-2014, 06:37 PM
Brutal region. Good luck trying to pick this one.

Brutal region, but most brutal on the other side. I like it.

Dukehky
03-16-2014, 06:37 PM
I'll take it

Other side of the draw from UL, I'll take it as well. Probably the best we could have asked for honestly.

Troublemaker
03-16-2014, 06:40 PM
Coach K got NCSU in with his press conference yesterday.

rthomas
03-16-2014, 06:41 PM
Midwest. Beware. You must beat Duke to advance.

I like our chances.

flyingdutchdevil
03-16-2014, 06:41 PM
I weirdly like this bracket. I think we match up well with Michigan. Also, I like the idea of playing WSU or Louisville in the Elite 8.

Buckeye Devil
03-16-2014, 06:43 PM
Good draw for round 1 & 2. I don't think Michigan is a good matchup for Duke. Wichita St got a brutal 4 seed matchup in Louisville. West region looks to be the most laughable at first glance.

OldPhiKap
03-16-2014, 06:44 PM
Mercer can play, boys. Do not sleep on the Bears. Seriously.

Glad State is in, K certainly might have helped. Big win over Syracuse, and the chairman is from Wake. That helped too. State is very deserving.

Fish80
03-16-2014, 06:45 PM
How is Louisville a 4?

MaxAMillion
03-16-2014, 06:45 PM
I am just glad that UNC is not playing at Raleigh. We would be playing a road game if that was the case.

SCMatt33
03-16-2014, 06:46 PM
I don't really mind this based on the matchups. Louisville really hasn't beaten anyone besides Splitting with Cincy and crushing UConn (clearly a case of a good matchup) a bunch of times. Michigan and Mercer rely on 3's a lot, the one thing we have a chance of stopping (its certainly not big guys or penetration). UMass, Iowa and Tennessee are probably going to have a tough time just making the second round. I'd rather have the better rest/geography over the slightly worse teams of the west and south.

Dukehky
03-16-2014, 06:47 PM
The local Duke beat writers are not thrilled with this draw. Making me more hesitant. Mercer has one good player, but unlike the past few years we have a wall of wing defenders to throw at people who only have one scorer, but who knows.

pfrduke
03-16-2014, 06:48 PM
Wichita is going to have a road game in the Sweet 16, much like we did last year, assuming Louisville gets there.

Troublemaker
03-16-2014, 06:49 PM
Tennessee is the real 6 seed. #13 Pomeroy and loaded with talent inside and out. Compare that with UMass which is #52 Pomeroy. But at least Tennessee has two chances to lose before facing Duke.

We have to get past Mercer first anyway. They're better than some teams we lost to, Pomeroy-wise.

NashvilleDevil
03-16-2014, 06:50 PM
Good draw for round 1 & 2. I don't think Michigan is a good matchup for Duke. Wichita St got a brutal 4 seed matchup in Louisville. West region looks to be the most laughable at first glance.

Really? Duke worked Michigan earlier with Mitch.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
03-16-2014, 06:50 PM
The local Duke beat writers are not thrilled with this draw. Making me more hesitant. Mercer has one good player, but unlike the past few years we have a wall of wing defenders to throw at people who only have one scorer, but who knows.

As long as he doesn't, you know, drive to the basket, we should be okay.

No easy games left! Let's go win em all!

Dukehky
03-16-2014, 06:51 PM
Really? Duke worked Michigan earlier with Mitch.

Stauskas, their best player all along with his improvement over the summer, is now their number 1 option.

A-Tex Devil
03-16-2014, 06:51 PM
With the obvious caveat that we must play well, I love our position in this bracket. Tennessee could be problematic but they have to win 2 games to get to us.

Is there an NCAA bylaw that Duke and Texas must be in the same region at least every other tournament? It's uncanny.

NashvilleDevil
03-16-2014, 06:51 PM
The local Duke beat writers are not thrilled with this draw. Making me more hesitant. Mercer has one good player, but unlike the past few years we have a wall of wing defenders to throw at people who only have one scorer, but who knows.

I think they hate it because Indy ain't San Diego or NYC.

cptnflash
03-16-2014, 06:54 PM
Hopefully UMass can beat the play-in winner, they're an easier out than either Iowa or Tennessee. Funny that the day after Coach K disses the Atlantic 10, we get matched up with one of their teams (potentially).

Edouble
03-16-2014, 06:54 PM
I like the draw. Top of the bracket is brutal. We only have to play one of those teams.

Love the A10 matchup to go to the Sweet 16. Hilarious.

SCMatt33
03-16-2014, 06:55 PM
Tennessee is the real 6 seed. #13 Pomeroy and loaded with talent inside and out. Compare that with UMass which is #52 Pomeroy. But at least Tennessee has two chances to lose before facing Duke.

We have to get past Mercer first anyway. They're better than some teams we lost to, Pomeroy-wise.

I think the second round will be tough for us no matter who we get (assuming we get by Mercer). Tenn, Iowa, and Umass are all big teams that get a lot of offensive rebounds and don't rely on jump shooting. Gonna have a tough time with that game unless we get a tired team like NC State a couple days ago.

cspan37421
03-16-2014, 06:57 PM
wow, looking at kenpom, Duke is #2 in Offensive Efficiency, #102 in defensive; Michigan is #3 and #103.

gofurman
03-16-2014, 06:58 PM
Brutal region, but most brutal on the other side. I like it.



I like it ok. People always say brutal but you can't get Louisville AND Wichita State - one has to lose. So if Louisville v easier team and Louisville won it's the same ONE team waiting (Louisville in this example)

I just didn't want to draw Florida as 1 .. Or Louisville as a 2 v 3 seed early. Maybe Uk or WichitaState will take out Louisville ( who I do fear w press system ).

Michigan is fine by me.

FOCUS ON MERCER !!!!!!!! Get on Mercer and do NOT look ahead !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

FerryFor50
03-16-2014, 06:59 PM
Why is everyone assuming that Wichita St makes it past their potential second round matchup with Kentucky?

Love the bracket. All the toughest team are on the other side.

Wander
03-16-2014, 07:01 PM
Why is everyone assuming that Wichita St makes it past their potential second round matchup with Kentucky?

Love the bracket. All the toughest team are on the other side.

Most people are going to have Kentucky upsetting Wichita State, and I nearly guarantee they'll lose to Kansas State instead.

CDu
03-16-2014, 07:02 PM
I agree with those who say they love our bracket. We have a very friendly draw for the first weekend, and we got one of the two #2s that I would have wanted as my #2 (given that we are a #3). The other half of the bracket has some really tough teams. But we would only have to face (at most) one of those teams.

It isn't a best-case scenario, but it's pretty close.

J4Kop99
03-16-2014, 07:02 PM
There's already a lot of talk about Mercer being a very tough opening game for us.

OldPhiKap
03-16-2014, 07:03 PM
There's already a lot of talk about Mercer being a very tough opening game for us.

They are. But gott take care of business.

FerryFor50
03-16-2014, 07:03 PM
Most people are going to have Kentucky upsetting Wichita State, and I nearly guarantee they'll lose to Kansas State instead.

Absolutely possible. But K State could also take out WSU.

J4Kop99
03-16-2014, 07:08 PM
They are. But gott take care of business.

Of course. All I know about Mercer is from the one time I watched them against FGCU. Hard to tell but they are definitely a very experienced team.

Duvall
03-16-2014, 07:09 PM
I agree with those who say they love our bracket. We have a very friendly draw for the first weekend, and we got one of the two #2s that I would have wanted as my #2 (given that we are a #3). The other half of the bracket has some really tough teams. But we would only have to face (at most) one of those teams.

It isn't a best-case scenario, but it's pretty close.

UMass is a great draw as a 6-seed, but Tennessee and Iowa are way underseeded at 11.

Anyway. Duke just has to play better.

Buckeye Devil
03-16-2014, 07:10 PM
Really? Duke worked Michigan earlier with Mitch.

Michigan is better now than it was then even though they may not have showed it today.

CDu
03-16-2014, 07:13 PM
UMass is a great draw as a 6-seed, but Tennessee and Iowa are way underseeded at 11.

Anyway. Duke just has to play better.

In reality, UMass and Tennessee are probably 8/9 quality and Iowa is probably a 9/10. So if we get past Mercer, we're talking about basically an 8/9 opponent in terms of quality. That's pretty nice for a #3 seed.

But yes, none of it matters unless we play better.

BlueandWhite
03-16-2014, 07:13 PM
I like it ok. People always say brutal but you can't get Louisville AND Wichita State - one has to lose. So if Louisville v easier team and Louisville won it's the same ONE team waiting (Louisville in this example)

I just didn't want to draw Florida as 1 .. Or Louisville as a 2 v 3 seed early. Maybe Uk or WichitaState will take out Louisville ( who I do fear w press system ).

Michigan is fine by me.

FOCUS ON MERCER !!!!!!!! Get on Mercer and do NOT look ahead !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Agree 100% Can't forget about Lehigh 2012. Or what almost happened a few years earlier vs. Belmont.

WeepingThomasHill
03-16-2014, 07:17 PM
And pundits are already salivating about Mercer and there big-time guard taking on Duke. Hope he is not channeling his inner CJ McCollum.

We are going to need Jabari and Rodney to absolutely carry us for the next 3 weeks. Can't rely on Cook or Sulaimon as a third option.

NYBri
03-16-2014, 07:22 PM
I like where we are. We play well and the talent rises to the top we can certainly do some damage.

hurleyfor3
03-16-2014, 07:29 PM
FWIW, we're the strongest 3.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/24487953/official-ncaa-1-68-seeding-order

mapei
03-16-2014, 07:32 PM
As someone else said upthread, I'm relieved that UNC wasn't assigned to Raleigh. Agree that our half of the bracket is the "better" half but, if I were Wichita State, I'd feel like I got assigned to the Group of Death. Very tough road for them as a #1.

DavidBenAkiva
03-16-2014, 07:34 PM
I saw Duke take on Louisville last year in Indianapolis. Duke was probably the 2nd or 3rd best team in the country at that moment and played UL tough in the first half behind some hot shooting from Seth Curry. The injury to Kevin Ware turned Louisville into an absolute beast in the second half. They came out and never looked back. There was a strong contingent of Louisville fans in Indianapolis that afternoon. It's only about a 2-hour drive to Indianapolis.

I like the matchups for Duke, should they reach Indy. Michigan won't be easy, but I really question how they will guard Duke's forwards. If Thornton and Sulaimon can keep Stauskas in check, Duke should not have to worry too much about the rest of their players. Michigan won't have a rebounding advantage against Duke. In the other side of the bracket, the Wichita State-Louisville game, should it occur, will be a real interesting game.

Given the lack of bigs Louisville has since Chane Behannon left the program, I see Duke taking out Louisville. Parker, Jefferson, and Plumlee should do more than enough to offset Montrezl Harrell. It won't be easy, but I think Duke has a real chance at getting to the Final Four this year.

Atlanta Duke
03-16-2014, 07:39 PM
FWIW, we're the strongest 3.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/24487953/official-ncaa-1-68-seeding-order

After I saw the CBSSports.com link I assumed that ranking was not authored by Jerry Palm - I was correct:)

Typical gracelessness from Palm

Apparently, the committee ran out of ideas for the final top seed, so they picked Virginia out of a hat.

But after dissing Duke for the last 2 weeks Palm does concede you might regret having Duke in your bracket

The committee also stuck it to Wichita State. ... . And, of course, Duke is there as well.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/24487922/bracketology-virginia-gets-final-no-1-seed-american-gets-dissed

dukelifer
03-16-2014, 07:42 PM
And pundits are already salivating about Mercer and there big-time guard taking on Duke. Hope he is not channeling his inner CJ McCollum.

We are going to need Jabari and Rodney to absolutely carry us for the next 3 weeks. Can't rely on Cook or Sulaimon as a third option.

How does a big time player worth salivating over average less than 15pts a game and shoots under 40%. McCollum averaged 22 a game and shot over 44% the year we played him.

NYBri
03-16-2014, 07:44 PM
No matter what happens, I really like this team. And I've really loved watching Jabari play his one year Duke. It's a shame that we won't get a chance to see him mature into the complete player we know he will be. I'm also sorry we won't get a chance to watch him dominate the college game.

But that is what major college basketball has become. You've got two paths to success. One to get the top recruits in the country and mingle them with secondary players, or be a second level mid major program that develops talent and depends on seniors and juniors.

Our program is too powerful to ignore one and dones. There's no way that we would settle for the second path with this coach. Unless we hit pay dirt and recruit a team with freshman that gel in a magical way, we have to settle for the kind of team we have now which will take is just as far as the talent will without the "team" aspect of that Virginia has.

hurleyfor3
03-16-2014, 07:48 PM
You've got two pants to success. One to get the top recruits in the country and mingle them with secondary players, or be a second level mid major program that develops talent and depends on seniors and juniors.


And whether you're us or Wichita State, you still put them on one leg at a time.

NYBri
03-16-2014, 07:48 PM
:)

Dictating autocorrect strikes again. Edited.

CDu
03-16-2014, 07:49 PM
How does a big time player worth salivating over average less than 15pts a game and shoots under 40%. McCollum averaged 22 a game and shot over 44% the year we played him.

Agreed. I mean, anything can happen. But this Duke team is probably better than that 2012 Duke team, and I don't think this Mercer team is as good as that Lehigh team. And Hall is certainly not as good as McCollum.

I was dreading what our first weekend draw might be. This draw has made me a little happier. Obviously, no game can be taken lightly. But I can think of far worse scenarios than the ones we have to get to the Final Four.

I've been down on our chances of making the Final Four for much of the season, but ironically this is as good as I have felt this calendar year about our chances of reaching the Final Four.

FerryFor50
03-16-2014, 07:49 PM
Everyone is talking up Louisville. Which naturally means they lose in the first weekend. :p

Wander
03-16-2014, 07:52 PM
But that is what major college basketball has become. You've got two pants to success. One to get the top recruits in the country and mingle them with secondary players, or be a second level mid major program that develops talent and depends on seniors and juniors.


That doesn't seem to be accurate to me. For starters, it doesn't describe three of the four 1 seeds. Florida and Virginia had good but not elite recruiting classes, and two of Wichita State's three best players are sophomores.

NashvilleDevil
03-16-2014, 07:53 PM
And pundits are already salivating about Mercer and there big-time guard taking on Duke. Hope he is not channeling his inner CJ McCollum.

We are going to need Jabari and Rodney to absolutely carry us for the next 3 weeks. Can't rely on Cook or Sulaimon as a third option.

Why? Michigan was a 2 seed I wanted to see. As for mercer do they have anyone who can handle Jabari and Rodney? That 11-12 team was playing without Ryan and there was some other factors at play with that team.

NSDukeFan
03-16-2014, 07:55 PM
FWIW, we're the strongest 3.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/24487953/official-ncaa-1-68-seeding-order

I was hoping for a 2, but the draw looks reasonable on our side of the bracket. I would be bitter if I was Wichita St and had their draw as the 1.

gurufrisbee
03-16-2014, 07:57 PM
Seriously? The top four seeds were all seriously considered to get #1's. What a ridiculously overloaded region. Final Four might be a let down after the weekend in Indy to get there.

dukelifer
03-16-2014, 08:00 PM
Agreed. I mean, anything can happen. But this Duke team is probably better than that 2012 Duke team, and I don't think this Mercer team is as good as that Lehigh team. And Hall is certainly not as good as McCollum.

I was dreading what our first weekend draw might be. This draw has made me a little happier. Obviously, no game can be taken lightly. But I can think of far worse scenarios than the ones we have to get to the Final Four.

I've been down on our chances of making the Final Four for much of the season, but ironically this is as good as I have felt this calendar year about our chances of reaching the Final Four.

Duke has a fighter's chance. Mercer looks to be annoying but Duke has a size advantage. The key is really how the guards play. Duke in 2012 was reeling from the loss of Kelly. But I agree- while the bracket is crazy- Duke's side is manageable. Need to take it one game at a time.

NYBri
03-16-2014, 08:05 PM
That doesn't seem to be accurate to me. For starters, it doesn't describe three of the four 1 seeds. Florida and Virginia had good but not elite recruiting classes, and two of Wichita State's three best players are sophomores.

Will see where it all ends. This is just the brackets. The truth is in the playing of the tourney.

dyedwab
03-16-2014, 08:07 PM
Agreed. I mean, anything can happen. But this Duke team is probably better than that 2012 Duke team, and I don't think this Mercer team is as good as that Lehigh team. And Hall is certainly not as good as McCollum.

Re: Lehigh. The thing to remember is that McCollum was the best player on the floor before the game even started. That won't be true when we play Mercer.

Look, this teams biggest problem is between the ears - it's lack of communication and focus on defense, it's sometimes inexplicable decision making on the offensive end, and its end of game issues. We could lose to anybody. But in any game in which the best player on the floor is yours, you should win, especially if you are more talented at the other positions. Losing to Mercer would be a more epic upset then losing to Lehigh was.

_Gary
03-16-2014, 08:39 PM
Wow, I'm surprised at the upbeat comments I'm reading about Duke's chances in this bracket. While I voted for Duke to advance to the FF in the prediction thread, that was more heart than head. Frankly, I think this region is absolutely brutal. One of the most loaded I've ever seen. Duke's very first game (Mercer) will NOT be easy. If they get past them, I like us to win the 2nd round game. But anything past that is going to be very tough. Frankly, the team I think is probably the best in that region right now is Louisville. And I figured the committee would love putting us back into a potential Elite Eight matchup with them after last year. And I don't really like it. But there's a long way to go before that possibility so I'll say no more.

DavidBenAkiva
03-16-2014, 08:43 PM
Unless we hit pay dirt and recruit a team with freshman that gel in a magical way, we have to settle for the kind of team we have now which will take is just as far as the talent will without the "team" aspect of that Virginia has.

This just flies in the face of reality, IMO. Duke has become a perennial power that mixes elite talent with players that develop over 3-4 years. That's what separates Duke from Kentucky. Duke will not have NIT teams. Sure, some years we get a team led by an elite freshman. But those teams have real good talent around them. Let me walk you through the recent past and projected future of Duke.

2010 - 3 senior starters, 2 juniors, and several younger role players among rotation - National Champions
2011 - 2 senior starters, 1 elite freshman (Kyrie Irving), and several younger developing role players (Miles and Mason Plumlee, Kelly, Curry, and Dawkins) - top team throughout the year, ACC Champs, #1 seed in tourney, upset by Arizona on bonkers shooting night from Derrick Williams
2012 - 1 senior, 4 juniors, 2 sophomores, and 1 'elite' freshman (Austin Rivers, who did lead the team in scoring and was drafted in the lottery) - team struggled to find its identity and lost in the first round of the tournament to Lehigh
2013 - 3 senior starters, 2 juniors, 1 sophomore, 1 near-elite freshman (Sulaimon), and 1 talented but not as elite freshman (Jefferson) - team was probably the 2nd or 3rd best team in the country by the end of the year and lost in the Elite 8 to the eventual National Champions
2014 - 3 seniors, 1 junior, 3 sophomores, and 1 elite freshman (Jabari Parker) with another freshman in rotation - consistent Top 10 team throughout year despite dip in the middle, fate TBD
2015 - 1 senior, 3 juniors, 1-2 sophomores, and 4 McDonald's All-American Freshman - projected to be top 5 team in 2014-15 year
2016 - 3 seniors, 1-2 juniors, 2-3 sophomores, and 2-3 near-elite (Sulaimon and Jefferson level recruits) freshman - this team will be led by 3 seniors and will most certainly not be featuring more than one one-and-done type player.

So yes, we do have a couple of elite freshman coming, but the team is built around a core of excellent, developing players that should keep Duke at or near the top of College Basketball. This is not the definition of meritocracy.

FerryFor50
03-16-2014, 08:44 PM
Wow, I'm surprised at the upbeat comments I'm reading about Duke's chances in this bracket. While I voted for Duke to advance to the FF in the prediction thread, that was more heart than head. Frankly, I think this region is absolutely brutal. One of the most loaded I've ever seen. Duke's very first game (Mercer) will NOT be easy. If they get past them, I like us to win the 2nd round game. But anything past that is going to be very tough. Frankly, the team I think is probably the best in that region right now is Louisville. And I figured the committee would love putting us back into a potential Elite Eight matchup with them after last year. And I don't really like it. But there's a long way to go before that possibility so I'll say no more.

I think you're over-estimating Mercer (which is understandable, given the Lehigh debacle and Belmont near miss in recent years).

Mercer looks like a mini-Duke. Shoots a lot of 3s. But their top scorer shoots 39% from the field on the season. That's not very good. Out of the 11 shots he shoots per game, over half are from 3. After him, Mercer has a 6'10" guy who scores about 9 per game. Granted, anything can happen, but I'm glad we got Mercer as a 14 seed rather than NCCU or Louisiana Lafayette.

As for how loaded the bracket is... yes. But mostly on Wichita State's side. They're the ones who are screwed. Duke's toughest test will likely be Michigan, who they've already beaten once this year *with* Mitch McGary.

Michigan is good, but beatable. And they play a 1-3-1 zone that Duke's already figured out.

CDu
03-16-2014, 08:55 PM
Wow, I'm surprised at the upbeat comments I'm reading about Duke's chances in this bracket. While I voted for Duke to advance to the FF in the prediction thread, that was more heart than head. Frankly, I think this region is absolutely brutal. One of the most loaded I've ever seen. Duke's very first game (Mercer) will NOT be easy. If they get past them, I like us to win the 2nd round game. But anything past that is going to be very tough. Frankly, the team I think is probably the best in that region right now is Louisville. And I figured the committee would love putting us back into a potential Elite Eight matchup with them after last year. And I don't really like it. But there's a long way to go before that possibility so I'll say no more.

Almost all of the really brutality of our bracket is in the other half. Yes, there are some really strong teams (Wichita State, Louisville, Michigan) in our bracket. But we'll have to play, at most, two of them. And very possibly only one of them.

Mercer is a solid #14 seed. But they are a legitimate #14 seed. We are a strong #3 seed. They could give us trouble, but so could almost any team in the field. And then we have a fantastic opportunity if we get to game 2.

And if we make it to the second weekend, we've already beaten Michigan. And Michigan doesn't do any of the things that give us trouble: they don't rebound well, they don't attack the rim all that well. They're good, and could certainly beat us. But I think we match up well with them and would welcome that matchup if we got it.

The reality is that as a #3 seed, this is about as good a bracket as we could get. Worrying about a really tough elite-8 matchup is pointless. If we make it to the elite-8, we're almost certainly going to be facing a tough team there. That's true regardless what bracket we're in.

Utley
03-16-2014, 08:56 PM
I don't like our draw - I think this is the toughest region. I think Michigan will be a real tough game - I think we got that on and off night and at home - I don't think the first game will be indicative of this one if we both get that far. Louisville is en feugo and I don't think we'll be good against a press (I'm assuming that's still a part of Louisville's MO).

I think the West was the place to be - would love to have switched places with Wisconsin there (they were the last 2 and us the top 3). I wonder if we get that if we beat Wake.

azzefkram
03-16-2014, 08:56 PM
I really like our chances in this region. We can be maddeningly inconsistent at times but I am happy with our draw.

FerryFor50
03-16-2014, 09:02 PM
Everyone talks about how inconsistent Duke is, but what about Michigan?

Michigan lost to UNC-Charlotte (#176 kenpom), Indiana (#74 kenpom) and had plenty of close calls against inferior opponents (FSU, Stanford, Minnesota, Nebraska, Purdue, Illinois).

Florida and Wichita St were the only real "consistent" teams this year.

jipops
03-16-2014, 09:04 PM
I don't like the potential round of 32 matchup with Tenn at all. That's going to be trouble.

FerryFor50
03-16-2014, 09:08 PM
I don't like the potential round of 32 matchup with Tenn at all. That's going to be trouble.

Could be. But a couple things to ease your mind...

1) Tennessee has to beat Iowa first. Then they have to beat either UMass.
2) Tennessee lost to NC State

However, Tennessee did beat UVA handily when they played earlier in the year. And they did hang tough with Florida in the SEC tourny.

A-Tex Devil
03-16-2014, 09:09 PM
- If we can't beat Mercer, the staff needs to reevaluate it's tourney preparation

- We get Tennessee (dangerous), Iowa (bad) or UMass (Really?). I can envision Tennessee pulling a Zona 2011, but that's unlikely. We'd have to play really poorly to lose to Iowa or UMass. If we lose to Tennessee, I think chances are next to none we played a reasonably adequate game and just couldn't pull it off.

- Michigan. Would be a great game. We know we can beat them, but if we go out to Big Blue playing well, hats off to the Wolverines.

There are 4 teams I could envision in the elite 8 if we get that far. We can beat all of them without needing a perfect game. We just need to play well.

Like I said above - this is a really favorable bracket given our 3 seed. But, of course, we have to play well.

KandG
03-16-2014, 09:39 PM
Man, today is like opposite day. I expected that the post-game thread would be slightly agitated but generally reasonable regarding a tough ACC final with a very strong team that was well contested, and that the thread about the Midwest region would feature Duke fans going apoplectic because the region is so insanely difficult.

Instead, the post-game thread was full of over the top terping, and this thread is mostly people saying "Not bad. We can do this!". I do like that we got the "easier" part of the bracket, but the potential matchups look plenty hazardous to me. With that said, we all know that it's up to the team to play to their potential, and I do agree with most here that they should at least get past the first weekend. But I'll be having plenty of uncomfortable CJ Mccollum/Joe Alexander flashbacks until the games are actually played this weekend...

WeepingThomasHill
03-16-2014, 09:47 PM
Surprised at the bullishness here. We face a gritty Mercer team with a tough 6-4 guard and then a potential second game nightmare against a Tenn or UMass. We'll need Sulaimon to lock up on Mercer's guard. Parker and Hood need to finish around the rim. If we can get to the second weekend, we have to play our nemesis Michigan and the hated Beilien (hated, at least, by me - he has such a punchable face). Can't rely on our earlier victory over them at Cameron.

As much as I love Jabari and Hood, we aren't going on a deep run unless Cook turns back into the Good Cook from earlier this year. We need Quinn the Master Chef, not Quinn playing Chef Boyardee and jacking up poor shots and making bad decisions. #Banner5

NashvilleDevil
03-16-2014, 09:51 PM
Surprised at the bullishness here. We face a gritty Mercer team with a tough 6-4 guard and then a potential second game nightmare against a Tenn or UMass. We'll need Sulaimon to lock up on Mercer's guard. Parker and Hood need to finish around the rim. If we can get to the second weekend, we have to play our nemesis Michigan and the hated Beilien (hated, at least, by me - he has such a punchable face). Can't rely on our earlier victory over them at Cameron.

As much as I love Jabari and Hood, we aren't going on a deep run unless Cook turns back into the Good Cook from earlier this year. We need Quinn the Master Chef, not Quinn playing Chef Boyardee and jacking up poor shots and making bad decisions. #Banner5

I see irrational pessimism in many posts. Duke will handle their business this weekend.

duke4ever19
03-16-2014, 09:53 PM
Can someone kindly mail Jabari some tape of Carmelo circa 2003 leading the 3-seeded Orange to a NCAA title?

Edouble
03-16-2014, 09:58 PM
As much as I love Jabari and Hood, we aren't going on a deep run unless Cook turns back into the Good Cook from earlier this year. We need Quinn the Master Chef, not Quinn playing Chef Boyardee and jacking up poor shots and making bad decisions. #Banner5

When you get the chance, and if available on line, you should watch the replay of Duke's last two games.

LobstersPinchPinch
03-16-2014, 10:03 PM
It's interesting to contrast perspectives on our bracket. Some are happy with the match-ups, others feel we're in trouble starting with the first game.

I think both perspectives are accurate. First round has Mercer (99th in Kenpom), 2nd has Umass (52) / Iowa (125th ranked D) / Tenn (13th), 3rd would be Michigan, who we've beaten handily and which has a worse D than us. Overall, the 7th ranked team (Kenpom) should feel pretty confident against that lineup.

The fact that other folks are worried is a testament to our ability to lose to anybody this year.

My take: Probably about as good a bracket as we can expect. We could certainly lose to Tennessee, and I think we'd get punished by LOU if we/they get to the E8. But I also think that we have a fighter's chance to make it to the F4, given these match-ups. We'll need everyone - especially the coaches - firing on all cylinders.

MaxAMillion
03-16-2014, 10:04 PM
I see irrational pessimism in many posts. Duke will handle their business this weekend.

This team just lost to Wake two weeks ago. They lost earlier in the year to Notre Dame. Get this team away from home and they can lose to anyone. Not sure how it is irrational pessimism.

WeepingThomasHill
03-16-2014, 10:08 PM
We have been up and down all year, particularly away from the friendly confines.

Here's hoping Hood doesn't get all barfy in a key moment of the Sweet 16 game vs Michigan, if we make it there, but if he does, let him barf all over Stauskas.

jipops
03-16-2014, 10:15 PM
When you get the chance, and if available on line, you should watch the replay of Duke's last two games.

Yea really. Cook has been very solid on offense for our last 3 or 4 games now. He has not been the problem at all. It's been a collective issue on defense, not our pg.

Listen to Quants
03-16-2014, 11:03 PM
It's interesting to contrast perspectives on our bracket. Some are happy with the match-ups, others feel we're in trouble starting with the first game.

I think both perspectives are accurate. First round has Mercer (99th in Kenpom), 2nd has Umass (52) / Iowa (125th ranked D) / Tenn (13th), 3rd would be Michigan, who we've beaten handily and which has a worse D than us. Overall, the 7th ranked team (Kenpom) should feel pretty confident against that lineup.

The fact that other folks are worried is a testament to our ability to lose to anybody this year.

My take: Probably about as good a bracket as we can expect. We could certainly lose to Tennessee, and I think we'd get punished by LOU if we/they get to the E8. But I also think that we have a fighter's chance to make it to the F4, given these match-ups. We'll need everyone - especially the coaches - firing on all cylinders.

Pomroy is a fine quantitative estimator but so is BPI (the ESPN version) and it has Tenn as 31. Sagarin is okay too, and he has Tenn as 25. Tenn may be problem but there is no universal agreement that. The human polls (both AP and USAToday) have Tenn outside the top 30.

MCFinARL
03-16-2014, 11:51 PM
Agreed. I mean, anything can happen. But this Duke team is probably better than that 2012 Duke team, and I don't think this Mercer team is as good as that Lehigh team. And Hall is certainly not as good as McCollum.

I was dreading what our first weekend draw might be. This draw has made me a little happier. Obviously, no game can be taken lightly. But I can think of far worse scenarios than the ones we have to get to the Final Four.

I've been down on our chances of making the Final Four for much of the season, but ironically this is as good as I have felt this calendar year about our chances of reaching the Final Four.

I agree. If we don't get out of the first weekend, it's really our own fault. Not knocking any of the teams in our pod, which are all good teams, but Duke playing hard, smart basketball should be able beat them. [Of course, playing hard, smart basketball is the key.]

Obviously the second weekend presents much tougher challenges, but if we get to the Sweet Sixteen, getting through that round seems like a 50-50 proposition, again assuming Duke plays well and doesn't fall apart at some point. Getting out of the Elite 8 will be a lot harder, but there are teams I'd like to meet a lot less than the ones we could see at that point.

Dukeface88
03-17-2014, 12:07 AM
I'm pretty much okay with this bracket. Yes, this team is fully capable of losing to Mercer, but they are also fully capable of beating anyone else in the region. Michigan seems like a good match-up for us; they shoot a lot of threes, and that's been the one brightish area of the defense this year. Lville would be a tough rematch in the EE (although I think Wichita has a better shot of making it out than some to be giving them credit for), but you have to beat someone to make it to the Final Four.

I do have to say that if I were the Shockers, I would not be pleased at all.

This is probably all going to look foolish after the weekend shakes out though. In 2010 everyone was terrified of meeting Villanova. That...kinda didn't happen.


Man, today is like opposite day. I expected that the post-game thread would be slightly agitated but generally reasonable regarding a tough ACC final with a very strong team that was well contested, and that the thread about the Midwest region would feature Duke fans going apoplectic because the region is so insanely difficult.

Instead, the post-game thread was full of over the top terping, and this thread is mostly people saying "Not bad. We can do this!". I do like that we got the "easier" part of the bracket, but the potential matchups look plenty hazardous to me. With that said, we all know that it's up to the team to play to their potential, and I do agree with most here that they should at least get past the first weekend. But I'll be having plenty of uncomfortable CJ Mccollum/Joe Alexander flashbacks until the games are actually played this weekend...

It makes sense to me. "Next play" types have moved on, while the pessimists haven't let it go.

ice-9
03-17-2014, 12:30 AM
Put me in the positive camp. For a 3-seed, this was probably just about as good of a draw as we can ask for.

That said, none of our games will be easy.

Mercer is a solid team on about the same the level of Wake Forest and Notre Dame. Slightly better actually, according to KenPom. And they're led by a guard who averages 5.6 assists per game shooting 39% from 3-point range. I've never seen Mercer play so I don't know if Langston Hall is the speedy, penetrating type...but you have to respect good guard play and a very decent 26-8 record. So obviously, we can lose to them. And yes, we should beat them.

If it's Tennessee in the second round that's a very dangerous game. The Vols are playing very well right now. They've been destroying opponents in March: 38 points over Mississippi St, 36 points over Vanderbilt, 28 points on the road against Auburn, 27 points over a Mizzou team fighting for their NCAA tournament lives, 15 points over South Carolina in the tournament, and lost to Florida by just 7 points. Man, this team is on fire and peaking at the right time.

I'm not as worried about UMass or Iowa. The former is over-seeded and the latter is the opposite of Tennessee -- on a massive slide after losing 6 of their last 7 games including Minnesota, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois at home and Northwestern at home. They weren't blown out in any of these games, but still, you'd think there's something wrong happening there. If we get UMass instead of Tennessee I wouldn't mind at all.

Regardless I like Coach K's record in the second game of the week -- he seems to do better in shorter turnaround times than other coaches -- so while Tennessee is dangerous I expect us to pull through and win. Then again I also thought we'd beat Wake Forest so, you never know.

Hopefully, Michigan loses before getting to the Sweet 16. I don't see Arizona St beating Texas, so it'd have to be the Longhorns. Then again, they're coached by Rick Barnes so...yeah, we'll probably meet Michigan in the Sweet 16. We beat them earlier this season and rematches between two even teams are always difficult to win. But we match up OK and we have experience against their zone, so I think we'll pull through.

The other side of the bracket is crazy. The committee did Wichita St no favors. I mean, damn, if they get to the Final Four they would have really earned it. If they can make it through a gauntlet of Kentucky, Louisville and Duke/Michigan I would feel awfully stupid for questioning them in the regular season. I don't think they will though. Kentucky is finally finding some chemistry -- they lost to Florida by only 1 point! -- and will try to overwhelm the Shockers with their physicality and athleticism. I have Kentucky winning, but really Wichita St's style of defense is designed for a team like Kentucky. This is a toss-up.

I don't think that winner will get by Louisville though, and I don't see anyone else challenging Louisville on that side of the bracket. I'm on record for saying that Saint Louis is grossly overrated, and I think NC State or Xavier (probably the Wolfpack) have an excellent chance of upsetting the Billikens. But that same Wolfpack team will run out of gas against Louisville.

Louisville lost to Kentucky in the regular season and I don't see them losing again in a rematch. Maybe the Wichita St can beat Louisville in a rematch from last year's title game if the Shockers get through Kentucky...I'd welcome that scenario if it happened. It's certainly possible. At the end of the day, I expect to see Louisville in the Elite 8.

I posted this about the Cardinals in the Greenberg thread, so will just re-post here:

"Louisville is playing really well right now and I didn't want to see them in our brackets. But I think we can take them if it comes down to it for the Final Four. Last year they destroyed us on the basis of two things: Peyton Siva creating offence and Gorgui Deng defending the post. Both of those guys are gone. Yeah, Russ Smith is going to have a monster game and their big guy Montrezl Harrell looks formidable, but I standby my preseason assessment that this year's Louisville is weaker than last year's. Of course, you can argue that this year's Duke team is also much weaker than last year's, so there's that."

This bracket on the whole is tough. But our path is about as good as it gets. We can win the Midwest.

J4Kop99
03-17-2014, 12:32 AM
"I actually like this draw."

"This bracket is brutal!"


-There's as much inconsistency in this thread as there has been with our team throughout the whole season. And that's saying something. Should make for an interesting next few days.

Ky-Dukie
03-17-2014, 12:45 AM
Pretty much everyone is assuming Louisville will make elite 8. I think uk makes it out of the top part of the bracket and possibly the final four. Providing they continue playing like they did this weekend. That's the match up I worry most about, if we get that far. Depends what team for us shows up. Away from home, who knows. Defense has been horrible most of the year. Would like to see us get back to slapping the floor defense. Just not sure which team shows up. Need to take every game very serious and not look ahead. I think we can get past Mercer and in my estimation, Tennessee which will be a tough game. If we get Michigan, I'm not sure how that will play out. Neutral floor game, different team than in December. Hoping Plumlee, Jones , and Dawkins get more time and less Thorton and Hairston.

tommy
03-17-2014, 12:50 AM
It looks to me like we would've been in line for the #1, or maybe the #2 in the east had we beaten UVA today. But I don't think our draw would've been any better, and in fact may have been worse. If we had been the #1, the committee might have just switched us and UVA, and we'd be looking at a sweet 16 matchup potentially against Michigan State. Me, I'd rather play Michigan in the Sweet 16, which of course is what we're looking at if form holds. Yes, having Villanova in the E8 is preferable to Louisville, but who says Louisville will even get there? All in all, I don't see how we can complain about our draw. At some point you gotta play the other top teams, and while Michigan is good, not having to play a potentially scary team until the E8 -- and that team is a #4 seed -- is about as good as you can hope for.

Kedsy
03-17-2014, 12:54 AM
This is probably all going to look foolish after the weekend shakes out though. In 2010 everyone was terrified of meeting Villanova. That...kinda didn't happen.

My recollection is nobody was afraid of Villanova in 2010. Everyone was terrified of Baylor.

Kedsy
03-17-2014, 01:17 AM
This team just lost to Wake two weeks ago. They lost earlier in the year to Notre Dame. Get this team away from home and they can lose to anyone. Not sure how it is irrational pessimism.

Looking at the top four seeds in each region (top 16 teams overall), seven of the 16 teams lost to a team rated worse than 100 by the RPI. Five of those teams lost to multiple teams rated worse than 100 by the RPI. Ten of the 16 teams lost to teams rated worse than 75 in the RPI.

My point is, sure, Duke could lose to anyone. But so can pretty much everyone else. Avoiding those early crazy losses is a good first step toward making the Final Four, so let's hope Duke survives/advances as good or better than the other top seeds.

eddiehaskell
03-17-2014, 01:43 AM
IMO, several teams can shake up this region. I believe we will see a lot of "upsets" this year. For 40 minutes, I can see State beating Xavier, Saint Louis or even Louisville. They've played well in big games since taking UNC to OT in Chapel Hill. TJ Warren is almost unstoppable if he gets it going. Speaking of UNC, I can see them marching to the elite 8 or heck, even the final 4. They are easily capable of beating teams like Iowa St/Villanova and they've already beat MSU (and Louisville) while not playing as well.

I have Duke playing KSU in the elite 8.

I can also see Pitt beating Florida. Check out their losses...Duke was the only team to beat them by more than 7 pts. They had six loses against top 15 teams that were decided by a combined 18pts.

CBecker
03-17-2014, 02:50 AM
Looks like a scary bracket on paper, but I don't mind it at all. I disagree with those that think Michigan is a bad matchup, and it has nothing to do with the game earlier this season, as Michigan was really struggling at that point of the season and I actually felt Duke played a rather poor game yet still won easily. I just think we match up extremely well with them. Stauskus is a good player but I think Sheed or someone like a Matt Jones if he gets time can give him trouble. Glenn Robinson is a player that can be good at times, but invisible other times. I'll back Hood to shut him down. They aren't going to monster Duke on the boards or on the interior. I think for a top ranked team, this as a good a matchup as it gets for Duke.

Only thing that stopped it being an awesome bracket is Louisville also being in it, and they scare me with how well they are playing...but It's nothing impossible.

Bring it on :)

NSDukeFan
03-17-2014, 05:55 AM
If The fake 40-0 team upsets the real unbeaten team, UK-Louisville could be a fun sweet sixteen game.

dukelion
03-17-2014, 08:46 AM
Mercer shmercer :D

Seriously though......the Vols are #13 in Kenpom and have played some dominant basketball in March including taking Florida to the brink in a game that they led for most of the way.

They're also a matchup nightmare with great size in the interior.

Dukeblue91
03-17-2014, 08:52 AM
I like our chances in this bracket and lets be honest think of all the teams in our bracket seeing Duke there and having to go through us.
Don't underestimate that fear factor too.
I know teams play well and get up for us but the fear of losing is still there.
If I was any of those other teams I would not want to see Duke in my path to the elite 8 or final 4.
Every team in the NCAA tourney will be good or they would not have made it in and this year is even more balanced as there aren't many clear cut favorites.
One game at a time and I hope our guys play angry and passionate every game from here on out.
They looked pretty mad after yesterdays loss.

Bluedog
03-17-2014, 10:21 AM
As others have said, I think are draw is actually pretty good and almost the best we could have hoped for given our position. The biggest downside to me is having to go through Indy with the likely teams that will be there - it AGAIN will be a road game and a brutal atmosphere. I was there when we played Louisville last year, and it was a very hostile environment. I can't imagine what it will be like if Kentucky, Louisville, and Michigan fans are there - ouch! Having said that, we have to, of course, win a couple games to get there and that's not a given at all. Mercer is certainly not a team to take likely, but I still like our chances. People all over seem to be afraid of TN, but they haven't been able to pull out the close games all season - but certainly have blown some teams out. I would rather see UMass or Iowa, most likely, and it's nice that we're in Raleigh. I like our matchup with Michigan if both teams make it, just wish it wasn't in Indy...One good thing if we get through is that we'll be the only regional having played in a football stadium - should prepare the Midwest Champ better for the Final Four. ;) Let's do this!

ChillinDuke
03-17-2014, 11:44 AM
I'm in the optimistic camp as well.

As a 3 seed I really couldn't have asked for a better pair of matchups in the first weekend. Tennessee is the scariest of all the potential matchups and they have to win two games just to get there, and they're still a #11 seed. All the normal caveats aside, I'm fine with Mercer to start. There's no reason we should lose that game. Then we get one of three teams, none of which are as scary as UNC, Ohio State, or Baylor (which are potential 2nd game matchups of 3 seeds in other regions). Heck, I'd even dislike a Providence matchup which is UNC's first game.

I know we have to play (and win) the games, but by many reasonable scenarios we have a great path.

For example, 3-seed Iowa State has to play NCCU (#78 KenPom, by far the best-rated 14-seed) followed by a potential 2nd game against 6-seed UNC (#26) / 11-seed Providence (#40). Woof.

Let's compare that to our 3-seed lineup. #99 Mercer. Then we have #13 Tennessee vs #27 Iowa - both teams are KenPom rated in the 4-7 seed range based on surrounding schools' seeds - one of which has to lose. Then, the winner has to play another game against a rested #52 UMass - a 6-seed who is rated in a 10-12 seed range based on surrounding schools' seeds. So, while Tennessee is the highest KenPom strength of all the teams just listed, they have to play an extra game against another tough opponent, travel, and play another tough game against a rested opponent...just to play us.

Without considering the ACC Championship, if you came up to me and offered me the 3-seed with that draw pre-UVA game, I'd take it.

- Chillin

kAzE
03-17-2014, 12:34 PM
My first reaction was "Okay, I think we've got a pretty good shot at the elite 8," but then I realized we played Michigan almost 4 months ago, and we basically can't take anything from that game and apply it to this match up, if we both get to the sweet 16. Now, obviously, we need to win these first 2 games, which is no easy task, given that our team isn't exactly playing their best right now. But should chalk hold up in our little corner of the bracket, I think Michigan is going to be a real problem. There's no way we have the same success that we had in the first game defending Stauskas, that guy is just too good, and LeVert and Robinson have gotten better and better all year long. They've learned to play without McGary, and it's not even close to the same team we faced in early December. It would be foolish to think that we "match up well" with them because we beat them at Cameron 3 and a half months ago.

I'm in agreement with most people that this region is ridiculous. Almost every team in this was underseeded, and Louisville and Wichita are just amazingly scary matchups for us defensively. I don't like our match up with any of the good teams on the other side of the bracket, but I definitely hope Louisville and Wichita both somehow lose. I'm picking Duke to win the region, but I'd be lying if I said I felt great about it.

NashvilleDevil
03-17-2014, 12:40 PM
My recollection is nobody was afraid of Villanova in 2010. Everyone was terrified of Baylor.

I think you're right and if memory serves Duke fared well against Baylor.

OldPhiKap
03-17-2014, 12:53 PM
I think you're right and if memory serves Duke fared well against Baylor.

Dre had to go nuts to win that Baylor game IIRC. And it was played in Houston or thereabouts, basically a home game for Baylor.

I sure hope we don't have a game like that this year.

Bluedog
03-17-2014, 12:58 PM
Dre had to go nuts to win that Baylor game IIRC. And it was played in Houston or thereabouts, basically a home game for Baylor.

I sure hope we don't have a game like that this year.

Andre hit two key buckets in the first half of that game, which were certainly big baskets, but I'd hardly call scoring 6 points going "nuts" for him.

NashvilleDevil
03-17-2014, 01:07 PM
Dre had to go nuts to win that Baylor game IIRC. And it was played in Houston or thereabouts, basically a home game for Baylor.

I sure hope we don't have a game like that this year.

Funny you say this because I just watched this game on youtube, like just watched. Dre hit two threes, the first put Duke up 14-11 early in the 1st half and the second one, the big one, came at the end of the 1st half when Duke was down 35-29 and it cut it to 35-32.

OldPhiKap
03-17-2014, 01:13 PM
Funny you say this because I just watched this game on youtube, like just watched. Dre hit two threes, the first put Duke up 14-11 early in the 1st half and the second one, the big one, came at the end of the 1st half when Duke was down 35-29 and it cut it to 35-32.

OK, maybe nuts is overstating. It's what I remember from the game, though.

Odd how the brain (does or does not) work.

SoCalDukeFan
03-17-2014, 01:57 PM
We got a relatively good draw in a very tough region.

3 of last years FF are there. Mich. would have been a 1 if they handled Mich State. Wich State is undefeated. Louisvillie is defending champ. Sounds very tough.

But we won't have to play all 3 of them. Should get out of our pod. Wich State has not played anyone and most think we can beat them. We beat Mich earlier. Louisville has a potentially tough road to get to us, if we can win the pod.

Also beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

SoCal

NashvilleDevil
03-17-2014, 02:12 PM
OK, maybe nuts is overstating. It's what I remember from the game, though.

Odd how the brain (does or does not) work.

I thought the same as you, that Dre's threes were close together and kept Duke in it. I was surprised when I saw that the 1st one, from about 25 feet, gave Duke a 3 point lead. I had remembered that one keeping Duke in it after an early Baylor run. Now the 2nd one I knew kept Duke close to end the 1st half.

Mike Corey
03-17-2014, 03:49 PM
Like our matchups, but there will be no cakewalk in this bracket, whether or not higher seeds fall.

Will the UVa loss deflate us or ignite us? I'm betting the latter.

jv001
03-17-2014, 03:59 PM
Like our matchups, but there will be no cakewalk in this bracket, whether or not higher seeds fall.

Will the UVa loss deflate us or ignite us? I'm betting the latter.

Mike, do you think Duke was playing more as a team when using the line change/rotation? It seemed there was more energy and more of a sense of urgency for those games. I know we didn't use the system long, but I thought it was effective. The team has been foul prone much of the year and it really hurts our defense when Jabari and Rodney get into foul trouble. I know it's really late in the year to be using this rotation but it couldn't hurt if we used it for a few minutes each half. Either go that route or play our best offensive players. With the talent on this team, I can't believe we have been this inconsistent. GoDuke!

sporthenry
03-17-2014, 04:07 PM
We got a relatively good draw in a very tough region.

3 of last years FF are there. Mich. would have been a 1 if they handled Mich State. Wich State is undefeated. Louisvillie is defending champ. Sounds very tough.

But we won't have to play all 3 of them. Should get out of our pod. Wich State has not played anyone and most think we can beat them. We beat Mich earlier. Louisville has a potentially tough road to get to us, if we can win the pod.

Also beauty is in the eye of the beholder.


Agreed. It is probably the strongest region but Duke's draw isn't terrible (at least not as bad as last year). I haven't seen which regions are strongest according to KenPom, Silver, etc. but this is usually the region as a whole and not the specific path.

Duke gets the weakest 6 seed by far but perhaps the strongest 11 seed. Our potential 11 seed is stronger than any other 6 seed according to KenPom and our other 11 seed is in between Baylor and UNC. I think our 2nd round game will be difficult but luckily, it will be their 3rd game in 6 days. This is probably what you should be upset about if you don't like our draw.

Then you get Michigan. Duke already beat and Michigan isn't much better if at all compared to the other 2 seeds. Wisconsin might have been better from Duke's perspective, don't like the match up with Nova, and we know about KU.

Beyond that, the chance of a team not named UK, Louisville, or WSU being in the E8 seems small. Silver has it around 7-8%. So they won't face some Cinderella team. But the good part of this is that whoever they face will also likely have been in a difficult S16 game. Last year, Louisville faced a decent Oregon team but handled them pretty easily. This year, if its WSU/Louisville, whoever comes out of that game is likely to be exhausted.

wk2109
03-17-2014, 04:13 PM
Everyone's saying this is a brutal region, but that depends on what is meant by "brutal." If you're the fan of one team, would you rather be in a region where:

a) There are several good to very good teams that are capable of beating you, but are also beatable; or
b) There is one team that has separated itself from the pack that you'd face only in the regional final, along with a bunch of decent teams you'd be favored against

I think the Midwest region is collectively very good, but the reason so many people (myself included) are optimistic about Duke's chances is that while there are a bunch of good teams, no team stands out as clearly dominant. I think Duke is at worst in a coin-flip situation with any of the top Midwest teams, whereas against a team like 2013 Louisville or maybe 2014 Florida, Duke legitimately was or would be an underdog (though perhaps hindsight makes that more clear in the case of 2013 Louisville).

Mike Corey
03-17-2014, 06:06 PM
Mike, do you think Duke was playing more as a team when using the line change/rotation? It seemed there was more energy and more of a sense of urgency for those games. I know we didn't use the system long, but I thought it was effective. The team has been foul prone much of the year and it really hurts our defense when Jabari and Rodney get into foul trouble. I know it's really late in the year to be using this rotation but it couldn't hurt if we used it for a few minutes each half. Either go that route or play our best offensive players. With the talent on this team, I can't believe we have been this inconsistent. GoDuke!

While I agree there was some beautiful team basketball being played during that stretch, I think we've also seen some beautiful, high-level team basketball since then.

I'm admittedly surprised that this team hasn't become...more overwhelmingly and consistently impressive...given the amount of individual talent out there. We've got it in droves, and we have the best player in the country on our squad, as well. I don't think our relative underperformance--at least to my unrealistic expectations--is due to the lack of using the "sub en masse" approach, though I like the observations you make about when we struggle.

I don't know this, and no one has told me this, and I haven't read this, but my amateur observation of this squad's weakness is that it's missing a few things:

(1) Leadership from a single player. I don't see anyone, and haven't read of anyone, that is steering this team. I don't mean that as an indictment. And I don't mean this to sound creepy: As an overemotional, overinvested fan like me, you develop a "relationship" or a "sentiment" for every player. And I truly like and respect these guys from top top bottom. I love how they've grown as a unit, and I love how hard they work in front of the camera and off. But damn it, there's something in the way for this group, and maybe it's because they're all too nice to one another. I want someone to be the on-court coach--like Duhon in his senior year, like Smith in his junior and senior year, like Battier, etc. Unfair to expect folks like that on every Duke team? Absolutely. But for any regular reader of DBR, this isn't a point that's been lost on us as attentive fans. We've got too many leaders by example, IMO.

To play devil's advocate: this team, by all accounts, really loves each other. To borrow K's famous declaration: This group being itself may well be enough.

(2) Leadership from our PG. I think this is why we've seen TT's minutes go up and Cook's minutes be a little less steady. Love aspects of Cook's game though I do, my on-the-couch-perception of his mental assuredness and stability is not the equivalent of, say, Smith and Scheyer. I felt the same way about Paulus.

K's teams, IMO, need that sort of PG. I don't think Cook, bless his heart, is that PG.

~

I am not discounting this team. I am concentrating on my far-away observations of two weaknesses. This is entirely unfair of me. But I have to get back to work, so I can't focus on all the wonderful things this team has got going for it, IMO.

But I don't think the problem is that substitution pattern. But who am I to disagree with you?

I'm still of the belief that this team has, within itself, the chance to be great--great enough to reel off six straight wins.

Coach K is the master motivator. He is as motivated now as ever. He's got guys that are all in with him, and with one another.

We can do this.

And in April, I do believe we will have done so, and that my misgivings above will be precisely what they are: the ramblings of a cautiously optimistic, lifelong Duke fan unwilling to let go of my childhood belief that Duke's always got a chance and that our players are always deserving of winning it all.

But come May, I will know better once again: It won't be the end of the season that mattered, but how we got there. And as ever, I will be nothing but immensely proud to have been able to go along for the ride with yet another wonderful group of young men who will have again brought me the kind of unabashed joy I once found as a player on my driveway basketball court, playing ball with my dad.

Maybe our defense will perk up; maybe our best offensive players will work in concert for 40 minutes rather than 32; maybe we'll find a way to Dallas and to a fifth title. But enjoy these days while we can: We won't have K too much longer, perhaps just a few more seasons. This denouement should be quite something, and I'm betting he has a few more tricks up his sleeve to help this team become great once again.

gofurman
03-17-2014, 07:17 PM
Mike, do you think Duke was playing more as a team when using the line change/rotation? It seemed there was more energy and more of a sense of urgency for those games. I know we didn't use the system long, but I thought it was effective. The team has been foul prone much of the year and it really hurts our defense when Jabari and Rodney get into foul trouble. I know it's really late in the year to be using this rotation but it couldn' hurt if we used it for a few minutes each half. Either go that route or play our best offensive players. With the talent on this team, I can't believe we have been this inconsistent. GoDuke!

I do - I loved and still wish for the line changes. To my eyeball test - and straight from Jay Williams mouth - players gave more energy w line changes in place. JWill himself said when you knew you had to go 36 minutes you would consciously conserve energy at times and that most players do that on D. It's just human nature

We all saw how the line changes also affected Dawkins and Rasheed ! Rasheed returned to form once he was the man on unit two as opposed to option 3 on unit one. Granted he (sheed) has continued to play well since then but it was the line change that started it all. Dawkins too seemed to really enjoy being "the" shooter on the second unit. As others have said I fear AD is one where K missed - he is a superb shooter and should not be yanked after missing two or three shots. Fear of the hook will kill almost anyone and I swear they give Dawkins almost no room for error. When with the second unit it appeared Dawkins had no fear of being yanked to the bench and he excelled

But mainly the line changes brought energy and defensive intensity I haven't seen since. I hope wae go a long way but I would love to see those changes brought back. I didn't find one negative with them

Can someone tell me a negative of the line changes? Maybe that it predetermined cook w unit one and Sheed w unit two so Rasheed only gets 10-15 minutes?

-jk
03-17-2014, 07:42 PM
I do - I loved and still wish for the line changes. To my eyeball test - and straight from Jay Williams mouth - players gave more energy w line changes in place. JWill himself said when you knew you had to go 36 minutes you would consciously conserve energy at times and that most players do that on D. It's just human nature

We all saw how the line changes also affected Dawkins and Rasheed ! Rasheed returned to form once he was the man on unit two as opposed to option 3 on unit one. Granted he (sheed) has continued to play well since then but it was the line change that started it all. Dawkins too seemed to really enjoy being "the" shooter on the second unit. As others have said I fear AD is one where K missed - he is a superb shooter and should not be yanked after missing two or three shots. Fear of the hook will kill almost anyone and I swear they give Dawkins almost no room for error. When with the second unit it appeared Dawkins had no fear of being yanked to the bench and he excelled

But mainly the line changes brought energy and defensive intensity I haven't seen since. I hope wae go a long way but I would love to see those changes brought back. I didn't find one negative with them

Can someone tell me a negative of the line changes? Maybe that it predetermined cook w unit one and Sheed w unit two so Rasheed only gets 10-15 minutes?

The obvious negative is that the bottom of our second five isn't as good as our first six or seven. The balance between fatigue and production isn't easy to quantify. Going into the NCAAs, where TOs are 3 minutes and half-time is 20 minutes, makes it even less likely to see the line change.

-jk

mike88
03-17-2014, 07:52 PM
The obvious negative is that the bottom of our second five isn't as good as our first six or seven. The balance between fatigue and production isn't easy to quantify. Going into the NCAAs, where TOs are 3 minutes and half-time is 20 minutes, makes it even less likely to see the line change.

-jk

We can get much of the benefit of the line changes just by playing Rasheed and Dre together for 5-10 minutes in the first half while either Rodney or Jabari gets a rest - the added benefit is that it also helps keep us out of foul trouble; same thing for Marschall subbing for Amile

gofurman
03-18-2014, 02:03 AM
IF duke beats mercer, who is the best matchup of Umass, UT and Iowa for us? UT seems to have a bruiser inside but Umass looks to have that deadly penetrating 5'9" guard. Though UMass looks to lose a fair number of games lately. Thoughts on those three - who do you hope wins that as the best chance for us to win... IF Duke can get past mercer

Thx

CBecker
03-18-2014, 04:28 AM
I'll be cheering for Iowa (or UMass). I think Duke should be able to score heavily against Iowa. They're a high scoring team though, but I like Duke in these kind of games. They've also been sliding of late.

TexHawk
03-18-2014, 11:34 AM
I'll be cheering for Iowa (or UMass). I think Duke should be able to score heavily against Iowa. They're a high scoring team though, but I like Duke in these kind of games. They've also been sliding of late.

I think Iowa/Duke would be a really fun game to watch. Iowa's AdjO is fantastic, but not as fantastic as Duke's, and their defense is much worse. They play at a pretty high tempo too.

I guess it comes down to.. Would you prefer to play a good offense/bad defense, or the opposite? I can make an argument either way, it's the balanced ones that scare me (Florida, WSU, Louisville, Nova).

sporthenry
03-18-2014, 11:36 AM
IF duke beats mercer, who is the best matchup of Umass, UT and Iowa for us? UT seems to have a bruiser inside but Umass looks to have that deadly penetrating 5'9" guard. Though UMass looks to lose a fair number of games lately. Thoughts on those three - who do you hope wins that as the best chance for us to win... IF Duke can get past mercer

Thx

Tennessee's defense is better than Clemson and their O is obviously much better. I don't think they play pack line defense but Tennessee is the biggest threat to Duke's 2nd weekend.

Billy Dat
03-18-2014, 11:49 AM
I'm admittedly surprised that this team hasn't become...more overwhelmingly and consistently impressive...given the amount of individual talent out there. We've got it in droves, and we have the best player in the country on our squad, as well. I don't think our relative underperformance--at least to my unrealistic expectations--is due to the lack of using the "sub en masse" approach, though I like the observations you make about when we struggle.

I'm still of the belief that this team has, within itself, the chance to be great--great enough to reel off six straight wins.

Coach K is the master motivator. He is as motivated now as ever. He's got guys that are all in with him, and with one another.

We can do this.

And in April, I do believe we will have done so, and that my misgivings above will be precisely what they are: the ramblings of a cautiously optimistic, lifelong Duke fan unwilling to let go of my childhood belief that Duke's always got a chance and that our players are always deserving of winning it all.

But come May, I will know better once again: It won't be the end of the season that mattered, but how we got there. And as ever, I will be nothing but immensely proud to have been able to go along for the ride with yet another wonderful group of young men who will have again brought me the kind of unabashed joy I once found as a player on my driveway basketball court, playing ball with my dad.

Maybe our defense will perk up; maybe our best offensive players will work in concert for 40 minutes rather than 32; maybe we'll find a way to Dallas and to a fifth title. But enjoy these days while we can: We won't have K too much longer, perhaps just a few more seasons. This denouement should be quite something, and I'm betting he has a few more tricks up his sleeve to help this team become great once again.

I have come to the same conclusions myself. We have great kids, we have tons of talent, they all want to play the right way, but we just can't seem to put it all together. If an ideal team is the famous fist, then we have not played fist-like on either end for most of the year. On offense, our supreme talent has allowed us to rise above our lack of cohesion. On defense, the flaws have shown up much more starkly. I don't know if we'll get there - and by "there" I mean playing to our potential. In fact, I'd bet against it because we have reached the end of the line. Is something going to click in practice this week that didn't click in the week leading up to the Wake game, or the week leading up to the ACC tournament? Probably not. In the UVA post game thread, I pondered whether or not this would be the first Duke team in my memory to not hit its ceiling at any point during the season?

All that being said, even if we don't hit our ceiling, we've got enough to make a serious run. Anything less than an Elite Eight will be disappointing, and if we get to that Elite Eight game, we can make a Final Four and so on. Our region is fine because we are in the bottom half. If we can't get to an Elite Eight, what do we really have to complain about? Personally, I think everyone has gotten a little too hyped about Louisville. I agree that they were under seeded, but I am not buying them as a repeat NCAA Champ. I am sure Wichita State would love another shot at them. So would I!

FerryFor50
03-18-2014, 11:52 AM
Tennessee's defense is better than Clemson and their O is obviously much better. I don't think they play pack line defense but Tennessee is the biggest threat to Duke's 2nd weekend.

Actually, Clemson's defensive rating is 94.8, which is 21st in the country. Their offensive rating is 103.6, which is 216th. Clemson is 20th in Kenpom for adjusted D.

Tennessee's defensive rating is 96.6, which is 32nd in the country. Their offensive rating is 112.8, which is 39th. Tenn is 16th in Kenpom for adjusted D.

I'd say Clemson and Tenn have similar defenses. But Clemson boasts 3 guys over 6'10" that play any meaningful minutes (two get 9-10 min per game, Nnoko gets 27.7 minutes per game). Clemson's size was Duke's biggest issue, IMO.

Tennessee has one guy over 6'9" and he plays 3.3 minutes per game. Jarnell Stokes is their best frontline guy, and he's 6'8" and 260 lbs. Averages 14.7 ppg and 10.3 rpg. I think Jabari could match up with him.

Their other main big Is Jeronne Maymon, who is 6'8" and averages 10ppg, 8.2 rpg. He's also the most foul prone of their bigs and is 260 lbs. Amile usually does pretty well against those types of bigs.

The only guy on Tenn worth worrying a lot about is Jordan Macrae, who averages 18.6 ppg and gets to the line 5-6 times per game. But he does like to shoot 3s - about 45% of his shots come from outside. But I think Sheed, Thornton and Hood could slow him down a bit.

Remember, Tennessee lost to NCSU, Xavier, UTEP, Texas A&M (twice), Vanderbilt... They're a concern, but they're no Louisville.

hurleyfor3
03-18-2014, 11:58 AM
My cousin went to UMass, so I'll be rooting for them. Although the one other time Duke has played a relative's school was Providence in 1997. My grandfather (his brother, my great uncle, was the PC person) said he was rooting for the school that wins... he certainly did.

UrinalCake
03-18-2014, 12:29 PM
We can get much of the benefit of the line changes just by playing Rasheed and Dre together for 5-10 minutes in the first half while either Rodney or Jabari gets a rest - the added benefit is that it also helps keep us out of foul trouble; same thing for Marschall subbing for Amile

Yeah, the problem with the wholesale substitutions is that it takes Jabari and Hood out of the game for long stretches. What we really want is for Dre, Jones, and MP3 to get more minutes, while Jabari and Hood get just a few less minutes in the first half; that can happen without necessarily subbing all 5. I agree that Rasheed and Dre seem to play well together, which I guess means your have to start Cook and Jones (or Cook and Tyler, but please God no).

jv001
03-18-2014, 03:29 PM
While I agree there was some beautiful team basketball being played during that stretch, I think we've also seen some beautiful, high-level team basketball since then.

I'm admittedly surprised that this team hasn't become...more overwhelmingly and consistently impressive...given the amount of individual talent out there. We've got it in droves, and we have the best player in the country on our squad, as well. I don't think our relative underperformance--at least to my unrealistic expectations--is due to the lack of using the "sub en masse" approach, though I like the observations you make about when we struggle.

I don't know this, and no one has told me this, and I haven't read this, but my amateur observation of this squad's weakness is that it's missing a few things:

(1) Leadership from a single player. I don't see anyone, and haven't read of anyone, that is steering this team. I don't mean that as an indictment. And I don't mean this to sound creepy: As an overemotional, overinvested fan like me, you develop a "relationship" or a "sentiment" for every player. And I truly like and respect these guys from top top bottom. I love how they've grown as a unit, and I love how hard they work in front of the camera and off. But damn it, there's something in the way for this group, and maybe it's because they're all too nice to one another. I want someone to be the on-court coach--like Duhon in his senior year, like Smith in his junior and senior year, like Battier, etc. Unfair to expect folks like that on every Duke team? Absolutely. But for any regular reader of DBR, this isn't a point that's been lost on us as attentive fans. We've got too many leaders by example, IMO.

To play devil's advocate: this team, by all accounts, really loves each other. To borrow K's famous declaration: This group being itself may well be enough.

(2) Leadership from our PG. I think this is why we've seen TT's minutes go up and Cook's minutes be a little less steady. Love aspects of Cook's game though I do, my on-the-couch-perception of his mental assuredness and stability is not the equivalent of, say, Smith and Scheyer. I felt the same way about Paulus.

K's teams, IMO, need that sort of PG. I don't think Cook, bless his heart, is that PG.

~

I am not discounting this team. I am concentrating on my far-away observations of two weaknesses. This is entirely unfair of me. But I have to get back to work, so I can't focus on all the wonderful things this team has got going for it, IMO.

But I don't think the problem is that substitution pattern. But who am I to disagree with you?

I'm still of the belief that this team has, within itself, the chance to be great--great enough to reel off six straight wins.

Coach K is the master motivator. He is as motivated now as ever. He's got guys that are all in with him, and with one another.

We can do this.

And in April, I do believe we will have done so, and that my misgivings above will be precisely what they are: the ramblings of a cautiously optimistic, lifelong Duke fan unwilling to let go of my childhood belief that Duke's always got a chance and that our players are always deserving of winning it all.

But come May, I will know better once again: It won't be the end of the season that mattered, but how we got there. And as ever, I will be nothing but immensely proud to have been able to go along for the ride with yet another wonderful group of young men who will have again brought me the kind of unabashed joy I once found as a player on my driveway basketball court, playing ball with my dad.

Maybe our defense will perk up; maybe our best offensive players will work in concert for 40 minutes rather than 32; maybe we'll find a way to Dallas and to a fifth title. But enjoy these days while we can: We won't have K too much longer, perhaps just a few more seasons. This denouement should be quite something, and I'm betting he has a few more tricks up his sleeve to help this team become great once again.

Thanks Mike for your well thought out response to my question. I can't argue with anything you posted but only agree with it all. I get too wound up in each and every game. Like it's life and death, when we all know that in the end, it's just a game. I love everything Duke and will continue to root for this team as I have every Duke team since the Howard Hurt days. This team is good enough to get on a 6 game winning streak and maybe everything will fall into place for this great bunch of young men. Let it play out and next play. GoDuke!

mike88
03-18-2014, 04:12 PM
Yeah, the problem with the wholesale substitutions is that it takes Jabari and Hood out of the game for long stretches. What we really want is for Dre, Jones, and MP3 to get more minutes, while Jabari and Hood get just a few less minutes in the first half; that can happen without necessarily subbing all 5. I agree that Rasheed and Dre seem to play well together, which I guess means your have to start Cook and Jones (or Cook and Tyler, but please God no).

Here is how I would plan the first half pattern, using the current starting line-up:

1. Thor / Sheed / Hood x 4-5 min

2. Dre/ Sheed / Hood x 4-5 min

3. Cook / Jones / Dre x 4-5 min

4. Thor or Cook / Sheed / Hood x 4-5 min

This assumes no foul trouble, and that the front court rotation would be Parker + Jefferson/ Plumlee with Hairston only for foul trouble; and
don't sit Parker when Hood is sitting.

Kedsy
03-18-2014, 05:39 PM
Here is how I would plan the first half pattern, using the current starting line-up:

1. Thor / Sheed / Hood x 4-5 min

2. Dre/ Sheed / Hood x 4-5 min

3. Cook / Jones / Dre x 4-5 min

4. Thor or Cook / Sheed / Hood x 4-5 min

This assumes no foul trouble, and that the front court rotation would be Parker + Jefferson/ Plumlee with Hairston only for foul trouble; and
don't sit Parker when Hood is sitting.

Well, in this scenario either Tyler or Quinn play only 4 or 5 minutes in the half. That doesn't sound realistic to me.

mike88
03-18-2014, 05:45 PM
Well, in this scenario either Tyler or Quinn play only 4 or 5 minutes in the half. That doesn't sound realistic to me.

Well, figure that both Quinn and Tyler will play more in the second half, and each will end up with 15-20 minutes, especially at the end of the game when we may want both in at the same time.
So your game totals would be something like:

Jabari 35
Hood 35
Jefferson / Plumlee 40
Cook + Thornton 35
Sheed 30
Dawkins 20
Jones 5

I think this distribution maximizes both our offense and defense and keeps the best players (Parker, Hood, Sheed, Jefferson in that order) on the floor most

mr. synellinden
03-18-2014, 06:28 PM
... According to Myron Medcalf (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/tournament/2014/story/_/id/10626506/meet-ncaa-men-basketball-tournament-championship-contenders), that is. He says Duke is not among the 12 teams that can win the NCAAs. Neither is Syracuse.

I hope this gets taped in the Duke locker room.

Kedsy
03-18-2014, 07:35 PM
... According to Myron Medcalf (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/tournament/2014/story/_/id/10626506/meet-ncaa-men-basketball-tournament-championship-contenders), that is. He says Duke is not among the 12 teams that can win the NCAAs. Neither is Syracuse.

I hope this gets taped in the Duke locker room.

The funniest thing in there is he considers 11-3 over last 14 games to be "hot" for a "title contender" (in this case Iowa State). Especially when it's actually 4-2 over last six and 8-3 over last 11.

Putting that aside, didn't ESPN run the exact same piece in 2010 (12 title contenders but not including Duke)? I assume they do it on purpose.

cptnflash
03-18-2014, 07:45 PM
... According to Myron Medcalf (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/tournament/2014/story/_/id/10626506/meet-ncaa-men-basketball-tournament-championship-contenders), that is. He says Duke is not among the 12 teams that can win the NCAAs. Neither is Syracuse.

I hope this gets taped in the Duke locker room.

First of all, ignore Myron Medcalf. He's a fan, not an expert. What he writes is generally unsupported opinion, not analysis.

Second, in this case he happens to be correct. No team with a defense anywhere close to as bad as ours has won the tournament since the advent of efficiency stats. Frankly, I'll be ecstatic if we get out of the first weekend. Anything after that is gravy. For the 2/3 of this thread that expect Duke to win the region, I suggest seriously lowering your expectations. Other than wishful thinking and a healthy dose of respect for Coach K, I can't see any justification for expecting us to make it to Dallas. The data certainly don't support it.

Duvall
03-18-2014, 07:47 PM
Second, in this case he happens to be correct. No team with a defense anywhere close to as bad as ours has won the tournament since the advent of efficiency stats.

Except that he included two teams that are *worse* than Duke defensively.

Kedsy
03-18-2014, 07:53 PM
First of all, ignore Myron Medcalf. He's a fan, not an expert. What he writes is generally unsupported opinion, not analysis.

Second, in this case he happens to be correct. No team with a defense anywhere close to as bad as ours has won the tournament since the advent of efficiency stats. Frankly, I'll be ecstatic if we get out of the first weekend. Anything after that is gravy. For the 2/3 of this thread that expect Duke to win the region, I suggest seriously lowering your expectations. Other than wishful thinking and a healthy dose of respect for Coach K, I can't see any justification for expecting us to make it to Dallas. The data certainly don't support it.

While not winning a championship, VCU won its region in 2011, despite having a pre-tournament defensive efficiency rank of #143. Crazy things happen in this tournament. People who think they understand what data supports tournament success are often incorrect in their assumptions.

cptnflash
03-18-2014, 07:56 PM
While not winning a championship, VCU won its region in 2011, despite having a pre-tournament defensive efficiency rank of #143. Crazy things happen in this tournament. People who think they understand what data supports tournament success are often incorrect in their assumptions.

And people who cite extreme outliers as evidence are often surprised by future results.

cptnflash
03-18-2014, 07:59 PM
Except that he included two teams that are *worse* than Duke defensively.

Yet another reason to ignore Medcalf completely.

Duvall
03-18-2014, 08:04 PM
Frankly, I'll be ecstatic if we get out of the first weekend. Anything after that is gravy. For the 2/3 of this thread that expect Duke to win the region, I suggest seriously lowering your expectations. Other than wishful thinking and a healthy dose of respect for Coach K, I can't see any justification for expecting us to make it to Dallas. The data certainly don't support it.

Well, only a fool would *expect* any team to make it to the Final Four - strange things happen in a single elimination tournament. But most of the dork-based reviews of the bracket I've seen have Duke as the second-most likely team to come out of the Midwest behind Louisville, so things can't be quite that dire.

NSDukeFan
03-18-2014, 08:12 PM
First of all, ignore Myron Medcalf. He's a fan, not an expert. What he writes is generally unsupported opinion, not analysis.

Second, in this case he happens to be correct. No team with a defense anywhere close to as bad as ours has won the tournament since the advent of efficiency stats. Frankly, I'll be ecstatic if we get out of the first weekend. Anything after that is gravy. For the 2/3 of this thread that expect Duke to win the region, I suggest seriously lowering your expectations. Other than wishful thinking and a healthy dose of respect for Coach K, I can't see any justification for expecting us to make it to Dallas. The data certainly don't support it.

You're probably right in that Duke is likely not to win the region. But, I think they have a very good chance of playing well enough to beat Mercer. If they are fortunate enough to do that, I would like their chances to win this mini-tournament this weekend. If they can do that, we will have most of a week to debate how the team might fare in another four team tournament of better teams the next weekend. If that happens the team I would expect to prevail would be a team from one of the top 3 or four conferences that has the best offence. It should be a fun tournament and though Duke may have a less than 30% chance to win the region, I will expect this coach K led team with two lottery picks to win their games.

OldPhiKap
03-18-2014, 08:16 PM
Second, in this case he happens to be correct. No team with a defense anywhere close to as bad as ours has won the tournament since the advent of efficiency stats. Frankly, I'll be ecstatic if we get out of the first weekend. Anything after that is gravy. For the 2/3 of this thread that expect Duke to win the region, I suggest seriously lowering your expectations. Other than wishful thinking and a healthy dose of respect for Coach K, I can't see any justification for expecting us to make it to Dallas. The data certainly don't support it.

WSJ made this point today. I hope we are spending the week eorking on defense, because it needs to get a whole lot better if we are going anywhere this year.

FerryFor50
03-18-2014, 09:21 PM
And people who cite extreme outliers as evidence are often surprised by future results.

An extreme outlier would suggest that what Kedsy said about VCU was extremely rare.

However, teams with mediocre defenses make the final four and NCAA championships more often than you think.

I've looked up with dRTG, rank and kenpom ratings for defense and posted them. Then I bolded the "extreme outliers," which I consider any dRTG greater than 50th in the country, or less than 25 in kenpom (as dRTG stats aren't on the site I use for prior to 2010).

Keep in mind that kenpom factors in the tourny, so the dRTGs could have dropped or risen between the beginning and end of the tournament. Asterisk (*) denotes champ. Double asterisk (**) denotes runner-up.

2013 Final Four

Louisville* - 87.1 dRTG (4th); #3 in kenpom
Michigan** - 97.7 dRTG (117th); #48 in kenpom
Wichita St - 94.3 dRTG (50th); #25 in kenpom
Syracuse - 89.4 dRTG (11th); #8 in kenpom

2012 Final Four

Kentucky* - 91.3 dRTG (15th); #8 in kenpom
Kansas** - 91.3 dRTG (16th); #3 in kenpom
Syracuse - 93.3 dRTG (32nd); #17 in kenpom
L'ville - 89.9 dRTG (6th); #1 in kenpom

2011 Final Four

UConn* - 97.9 dRTG (90th); #13 in kenpom
Butler** - 98.1 dRTG (97th); #44 in kenpom
Kentucky - 95.6 dRTG (44th); #15 in kenpom
VCU - 101.1 dRTG (171st); #84 in kenpom

2010 Final Four

Duke* - 91.7 dRTG (14th); #8 kenpom
Butler** - 92.4 dRTG (18th); #2 kenpom
Michigan St - 96.5 dRTG (68th); #27 kenpom
WVU - 97.7 dRTG (100th); #23 kenpom

2009 Final Four

UNC* - #21 kenpom
Michigan St** - #8 kenpom
UConn - #3 kenpom
Villanova - #13 kenpom

2008 Final Four

Kansas* - #1 kenpom
Memphis** - #2 kenpom
North Carolina - #19 kenpom
UCLA - #5 kenpom

2007 Final Four

Florida* - #17 kenpom
Ohio State** - #11 kenpom
Kansas - #1 kenpom
Georgetown - #24 kenpom

2006 Final Four

Florida* - #6 kenpom
UCLA** - #4 kenpom
George Mason - #13 kenpom
Louisiana State - #2 kenpom

2005 Final Four

North Carolina* - #12 kenpom
Illinois** - #4 kenpom
Louisville - #37 kenpom
Michigan State - #32 kenpom

2004 Final Four

Connecticut* - #5 kenpom
Georgia Tech** - #6 kenpom
Duke - #4 kenpom
Oklahoma State - #14 kenpom

So in 10 years, we've had 7 mediocre defenses make the final four out of 40 teams. That's around 18% of the time. I wouldn't call that an "extreme outlier."

Granted, Duke has some work to do and likely won't win it all, but nothing is impossible. The tourny is all about matchups and getting hot at the right time.

pfrduke
03-18-2014, 09:39 PM
State off to a good start, even with Warren getting some early foul trouble. Anya has looked very good in limited minutes.

Kedsy
03-18-2014, 10:48 PM
Keep in mind that kenpom factors in the tourny, so the dRTGs could have dropped or risen between the beginning and end of the tournament.


Pre-tournament Pomeroy defensive ranks:

2013:
Louisville #1
Syracuse #23
Wichita St. #30
Michigan #58

2012:
Kentucky #6
Kansas #8
Louisville #2
Ohio State #1

2011:
Kentucky #22
UConn #31
Butler #77
VCU #143

2010:
Duke #4
Butler #15
West Virginia #24
Michigan St. #27

2009:
UConn #3
Michigan St. #10
Villanova #25
UNC #35

So, captflash is right that VCU is the only Final Four team in the last five years with a defensive rank worse than this year's Duke team, but FerryFor50 is also right that #58 and #77 aren't qualitatively much different from Duke's current situation. Frankly, I'm not sure the teams in the 30s are really all that different, but I'm not sure about that.

I guess I'd be comfortable calling VCU the outlier, but perhaps not an "extreme outlier."

freshmanjs
03-18-2014, 10:54 PM
Pre-tournament Pomeroy defensive ranks:

2013:
Louisville #1
Syracuse #23
Wichita St. #30
Michigan #58

2012:
Kentucky #6
Kansas #8
Louisville #2
Ohio State #1

2011:
Kentucky #22
UConn #31
Butler #77
VCU #143

2010:
Duke #4
Butler #15
West Virginia #24
Michigan St. #27

2009:
UConn #3
Michigan St. #10
Villanova #25
UNC #35

So, captflash is right that VCU is the only Final Four team in the last five years with a defensive rank worse than this year's Duke team, but FerryFor50 is also right that #58 and #77 aren't qualitatively much different from Duke's current situation. Frankly, I'm not sure the teams in the 30s are really all that different, but I'm not sure about that.

I guess I'd be comfortable calling VCU the outlier, but perhaps not an "extreme outlier."

it would be interesting to know how teams with profiles like Duke '14 (i.e., top 3 offense, around #100 defense) have done historically.

pfrduke
03-18-2014, 11:13 PM
Great win for State. 3-0 for the ACC tonight.

Kedsy
03-18-2014, 11:16 PM
it would be interesting to know how teams with profiles like Duke '14 (i.e., top 3 offense, around #100 defense) have done historically.

There are no perfect analogs, and of what there are, it's a mixed bag. Here are some top 10 offenses and 30+ defenses from the past five years:

2013:
Michigan: 2 off-58 def -- 4-seed, Final Four
Colorado State: 7-98 -- 8-seed, R32
Iowa State: 8-121 -- 10 seed, R32

2012:
Missouri: 1-76 -- 2-seed, R64
Indiana: 4-58 -- 4-seed, Sweet 16
Florida: 3-119 -- 7-seed, Elite Eight
Duke: 9-62 -- 2-seed, R64
Purdue: 6-100 -- 10-seed, R32
Creighton: 5-183 -- 8-seed, R32

2011:
Wisconsin: 2-63 -- 4-seed, Sweet 16
Notre Dame: 3-62 -- 2-seed, R32
Washington: 9-42 -- 7-seed, R32

2010:
Maryland: 6-40 -- 4-seed, R32
Baylor: 5-52 -- 3-seed, Elite Eight
California: 3-81 -- 8-seed, R32
Villanova: 8-62 -- 2-seed, R32

2009:
Marquette: 9-56 -- 6-seed, R32
UCLA: 3-37 -- 6-seed, R32
UNC: 1-35 -- 1-seed, champ
Pitt: 2-34 -- 1-seed, Elite Eight
Arizona State: 5-36 -- 6-seed, R32
Oklahoma: 8-46 -- 2-seed, Elite Eight
Arizona: 7-132 -- 12-seed, Sweet 16

davekay1971
03-19-2014, 12:20 AM
Great win for State. 3-0 for the ACC tonight.

Warren was dominant in the second half. Tyler Lewis, however, was spectacular. His 7 assists don't remotely reflect the way he controlled the ball tonight.

CDu
03-19-2014, 12:29 AM
People have repeatedly talked about how scary Louisville is. But let's take a step back and look at what they've done.

Against tournament teams, they are 4-5. And 3 of those wins came against the same team (UConn). And it is not like those 5 losses came against juggernauts. They've lost to a 5 seed (Cincy), a 6 seed (UNC), an 8 seed (UK), and another 8 seed twice (Memphis). They've beaten a 5 seed (Cincy) and an 8 seed three times (UConn). That's more or less it. The rest of their resume is pretty much just them beating up on really bad teams. They have just 5 other wins against the top-100 in the RPI.

So we have a team that went 4-5 against tourney teams and has not faced a team seeded 4 or better at all this year.

Now, that's not to say that Louisville isn't really good. But I'm just not ready to crown their [butts] just yet. It may be that they have suddenly kicked it into gear this month after the March 1 loss to Memphis. Or it may be that they are just a team that beats up on really bad teams and is mediocre against the good teams.

Time will tell. But I'm feeling a bit less worried about them now after having really taken a look at their resume.

LobstersPinchPinch
03-19-2014, 12:39 AM
So, captflash is right that VCU is the only Final Four team in the last five years with a defensive rank worse than this year's Duke team, but FerryFor50 is also right that #58 and #77 aren't qualitatively much different from Duke's current situation. Frankly, I'm not sure the teams in the 30s are really all that different, but I'm not sure about that.

I guess I'd be comfortable calling VCU the outlier, but perhaps not an "extreme outlier."

Good stuff as always, Kedsy. I appreciate you let the data say what it says rather than force a viewpoint.

Agree with Captflash re: our prospects. See best case as E8 but wouldn't be shocked if we lost against Mercer.

Surprised that our D is basically the same as 3 months ago. I'm curious if folks think it's just a combination of average-to-poor defenders at nearly every position, or if it's partly that combined with a defensive philosophy that is poorly suited for our personnel and not adjusted to account for different offensive styles we face. I'd probably tend towards the latter perspective, but curious what folks much smarter and informed than I think.

Kedsy
03-19-2014, 01:27 AM
Surprised that our D is basically the same as 3 months ago. I'm curious if folks think it's just a combination of average-to-poor defenders at nearly every position, or if it's partly that combined with a defensive philosophy that is poorly suited for our personnel and not adjusted to account for different offensive styles we face. I'd probably tend towards the latter perspective, but curious what folks much smarter and informed than I think.

I don't think it's either of those things. While our perimeter players seem to occasionally get beat off the dribble and/or lose their man on a backdoor cut, I wouldn't necessarily quantify them as "average-to-poor defenders." Nor do I think Coach K's defensive philosophy is poorly suited for our personnel. Rather, we just don't always play the best team defense, which needs better rotations and communication than we've had lately.

Interestingly, from the NC State regular season game through the Virginia Tech game (a span of 12 games), I thought our D had qualitatively improved (and the defensive efficiency numbers, with the exception of the first Syracuse game, seem to back that up), but in the last five games our D seems to have regressed somewhat. I have no idea why, but I think it's more complicated than our defense being the same as it was three months ago.

Kedsy
03-19-2014, 02:22 AM
People have repeatedly talked about how scary Louisville is. But let's take a step back and look at what they've done.

Yeah, I agree. I think people are mostly scared of Louisville's style of play. But if a team doesn't panic, it's not clear Louisville has the key pieces to overwhelm a decent team. Personally, the players I thought made Louisville so formidable last year were Siva and Dieng. Without a lightning quick, veteran point guard at the front and a hulking shot eraser at the back, Louisville seems a lot less frightening, at least to me.

g-money
03-19-2014, 02:56 AM
People have repeatedly talked about how scary Louisville is. But let's take a step back and look at what they've done.

Against tournament teams, they are 4-5. And 3 of those wins came against the same team (UConn). And it is not like those 5 losses came against juggernauts. They've lost to a 5 seed (Cincy), a 6 seed (UNC), an 8 seed (UK), and another 8 seed twice (Memphis). They've beaten a 5 seed (Cincy) and an 8 seed three times (UConn). That's more or less it. The rest of their resume is pretty much just them beating up on really bad teams. They have just 5 other wins against the top-100 in the RPI.

So we have a team that went 4-5 against tourney teams and has not faced a team seeded 4 or better at all this year.

Now, that's not to say that Louisville isn't really good. But I'm just not ready to crown their [butts] just yet. It may be that they have suddenly kicked it into gear this month after the March 1 loss to Memphis. Or it may be that they are just a team that beats up on really bad teams and is mediocre against the good teams.

Time will tell. But I'm feeling a bit less worried about them now after having really taken a look at their resume.

Yup. As I filled out my bracket tonight I made a firm decision to not believe the hype on Louisville. I think Wichita St. can beat them - after all, they almost beat a better Louisville team last year in the final four. (Of course, this presumes that Wichita survives Kentucky.) I think Duke can beat them too, if we both get that far.

NashvilleDevil
03-19-2014, 06:54 AM
Good stuff as always, Kedsy. I appreciate you let the data say what it says rather than force a viewpoint.

Agree with Captflash re: our prospects. See best case as E8 but wouldn't be shocked if we lost against Mercer.

Surprised that our D is basically the same as 3 months ago. I'm curious if folks think it's just a combination of average-to-poor defenders at nearly every position, or if it's partly that combined with a defensive philosophy that is poorly suited for our personnel and not adjusted to account for different offensive styles we face. I'd probably tend towards the latter perspective, but curious what folks much smarter and informed than I think.

I'd be shocked if they lost to Mercer. I'll be shocked if they don't win by more than 20.

CDu
03-19-2014, 08:06 AM
Yeah, I agree. I think people are mostly scared of Louisville's style of play. But if a team doesn't panic, it's not clear Louisville has the key pieces to overwhelm a decent team. Personally, the players I thought made Louisville so formidable last year were Siva and Dieng. Without a lightning quick, veteran point guard at the front and a hulking shot eraser at the back, Louisville seems a lot less frightening, at least to me.

Not to mention the loss of Behanon; a wide body McDonald's All-American who helped them a lot on the glass and was a sneaky good scorer inside. His dismissal along with the loss of Dieng means the Cards are stuck playing Van Treese (a widebody rebounder and literally nothing else) and Mathiang (a very raw and completely unready future clone of Dieng).

They are still a good team, and the trio of Smith, Jones, and Harrell could cause matchup issues (especially if Hancock and Blackshear are hot from 3). But they are far from the juggernaut that they were last year.

freshmanjs
03-19-2014, 08:23 AM
Good stuff as always, Kedsy. I appreciate you let the data say what it says rather than force a viewpoint.

Agree with Captflash re: our prospects. See best case as E8 but wouldn't be shocked if we lost against Mercer.



so you're saying if we get to the elite 8, we will have *zero* chance to win the game?

Troublemaker
03-19-2014, 08:28 AM
People have repeatedly talked about how scary Louisville is. But let's take a step back and look at what they've done.

Against tournament teams, they are 4-5. And 3 of those wins came against the same team (UConn). And it is not like those 5 losses came against juggernauts. They've lost to a 5 seed (Cincy), a 6 seed (UNC), an 8 seed (UK), and another 8 seed twice (Memphis). They've beaten a 5 seed (Cincy) and an 8 seed three times (UConn). That's more or less it. The rest of their resume is pretty much just them beating up on really bad teams. They have just 5 other wins against the top-100 in the RPI.

So we have a team that went 4-5 against tourney teams and has not faced a team seeded 4 or better at all this year.

Now, that's not to say that Louisville isn't really good. But I'm just not ready to crown their [butts] just yet. It may be that they have suddenly kicked it into gear this month after the March 1 loss to Memphis. Or it may be that they are just a team that beats up on really bad teams and is mediocre against the good teams.

Time will tell. But I'm feeling a bit less worried about them now after having really taken a look at their resume.

Great post, CDu!

Might I add that I think Pomeroy should rename the "The Wisconsin Effect" to "The Louisville 2014 Effect" (not that KenPom ever officially named it... I think DBR posters named it such.) I don't think Louisville is the 2nd-best team in the country as they are currently ranked in Kenpom. Louisville is the sportswriter-cliched bully that is not fearsome when someone stands up to the bully and smacks them in the nose. If Memphis was able to successfully stand up to the bully twice, sweeping them, I think teams like Wichita St, Duke, and Michigan can do it as well.

I would peg Louisville to be more like the 10th best team in the country. Excellent at beating up on bad teams (a skill I wish Duke 2014 possessed more consistently), but just as vulnerable to good teams as anyone else.

FerryFor50
03-19-2014, 10:15 AM
People have repeatedly talked about how scary Louisville is. But let's take a step back and look at what they've done.

Against tournament teams, they are 4-5. And 3 of those wins came against the same team (UConn). And it is not like those 5 losses came against juggernauts. They've lost to a 5 seed (Cincy), a 6 seed (UNC), an 8 seed (UK), and another 8 seed twice (Memphis). They've beaten a 5 seed (Cincy) and an 8 seed three times (UConn). That's more or less it. The rest of their resume is pretty much just them beating up on really bad teams. They have just 5 other wins against the top-100 in the RPI.

So we have a team that went 4-5 against tourney teams and has not faced a team seeded 4 or better at all this year.

Now, that's not to say that Louisville isn't really good. But I'm just not ready to crown their [butts] just yet. It may be that they have suddenly kicked it into gear this month after the March 1 loss to Memphis. Or it may be that they are just a team that beats up on really bad teams and is mediocre against the good teams.

Time will tell. But I'm feeling a bit less worried about them now after having really taken a look at their resume.

This is why I picked Manhattan to upset L'ville. ;)

LobstersPinchPinch
03-19-2014, 10:21 AM
so you're saying if we get to the elite 8, we will have *zero* chance to win the game?

Technically yes, but I'm using "best case" in the normal usage of that phrase as it applies to the tournament. I actually like our bracket overall, at least until we'd be up against LVILLE, if they make it that far. But our worst performances seem mostly against good D's, and I think that's just a terrible matchup for us. I know other folks disagree, and to be honest, most of the folks on this board know more about basketball than I do.

freshmanjs
03-19-2014, 10:28 AM
Technically yes, but I'm using "best case" in the normal usage of that phrase as it applies to the tournament. I actually like our bracket overall, at least until we'd be up against LVILLE, if they make it that far. But our worst performances seem mostly against good D's, and I think that's just a terrible matchup for us. I know other folks disagree, and to be honest, most of the folks on this board know more about basketball than I do.

i just think it's silly to talk about things like "duke is at best an elite 8 team" or "louisville is a final four team" or if "Duke doesn't improve, their ceiling is the sweet 16"

it does not make sense to look at it that way. it's a tournament with a huge amount of variability. each game has a probabilistic set of outcomes and the tournament will only be played once.

FerryFor50
03-19-2014, 10:30 AM
Technically yes, but I'm using "best case" in the normal usage of that phrase as it applies to the tournament. I actually like our bracket overall, at least until we'd be up against LVILLE, if they make it that far. But our worst performances seem mostly against good D's, and I think that's just a terrible matchup for us. I know other folks disagree, and to be honest, most of the folks on this board know more about basketball than I do.

Zero percent? That's a pretty bold claim, since even the highest seeds have a greater than zero chance to win games.

Again, this is not 2013 L'ville. No Deng. No Siva. No compound fracture to rally the troops.

This is also not 2013 Duke. We've replaced Curry (who was hampered by a leg injury), MP2 and Kelly (who was still out of rhythm coming off his injury) with a more mobile group of Hood, Parker and Amile. And none of the guys from last season are Jabari Parker.

While I don't like the L'ville matchup due to the press, I think Duke has an excellent chance of beating them. But I think it's also very possible that L'ville loses earlier.

FerryFor50
03-19-2014, 10:32 AM
i just think it's silly to talk about things like "duke is at best an elite 8 team" or "louisville is a final four team" or if "Duke doesn't improve, their ceiling is the sweet 16"

it does not make sense to look at it that way. it's a tournament with a huge amount of variability. each game has a probabilistic set of outcomes and the tournament will only be played once.

Exactly.

The *only* way you could accurately predict a tournament result is if every team played the exact same way every game. But there are TONS of variables; quality of opponent, injury/illness, fatigue, off shooting, officiating, coaching... the only thing you can say we have a zero percent chance of is picking every game in a field of 64 correctly.

OldPhiKap
03-19-2014, 10:44 AM
i just think it's silly to talk about things like "duke is at best an elite 8 team" or "louisville is a final four team" or if "Duke doesn't improve, their ceiling is the sweet 16"

it does not make sense to look at it that way. it's a tournament with a huge amount of variability. each game has a probabilistic set of outcomes and the tournament will only be played once.

Logic and math?!?

This is the internet, son! Such things don't belong.

(Great post)



(We had zero percent chance against Vegas in '91 according to consensus).

CDu
03-19-2014, 10:58 AM
Might I add that I think Pomeroy should rename the "The Wisconsin Effect" to "The Louisville 2014 Effect" (not that KenPom ever officially named it... I think DBR posters named it such.)

Firstly, thanks for the kind words! Secondly, I completely agree about the above. I think the "Wisconsin Effect" is alive and well, despite Pomeroy's attempts to fix it. I think there are a number of teams who have gotten an artificially fat Pomerory rating by really beating up on bad teams to the point that the system hasn't been able to address yet.

Obviously, time will tell. But teams like Vermont (rated in the top-70 in Pomeroy, was 0-5 against the top-100 [with only one of those losses to the top-25] and 2-6 against the top 150), Louisville, (4-5 against the top-50 but #2 in Pomeroy), Manhattan, North Dakota St, and perhaps (sadly) Harvard may be examples of this trend continuing, where teams are feasting on really bad schedules but not really doing much against good teams.

FerryFor50
03-19-2014, 11:03 AM
Obviously, time will tell. But teams like Vermont (rated in the top-70 in Pomeroy, was 0-5 against the top-100 [with only one of those losses to the top-25] and 2-6 against the top 150), Louisville, (4-5 against the top-50 but #2 in Pomeroy), Manhattan, North Dakota St, and perhaps (sadly) Harvard may be examples of this trend continuing, where teams are feasting on really bad schedules but not really doing much against good teams.

Pomeroy obviously has it all wrong. Vermont was 1-4 against the top 100. Remember, the Duke-Vermont game was *really* a loss for us... :p

tommy
03-19-2014, 11:55 AM
Yup. As I filled out my bracket tonight I made a firm decision to not believe the hype on Louisville. I think Wichita St. can beat them - after all, they almost beat a better Louisville team last year in the final four. (Of course, this presumes that Wichita survives Kentucky.) I think Duke can beat them too, if we both get that far.

And this presumes that Kentucky survives Kansas State.

FerryFor50
03-19-2014, 01:04 PM
Boy, Vegas would *love* to control the selection process, wouldn't they?

Talk about bad ideas...

-jk
03-19-2014, 01:16 PM
The Committee is in a hard place: they're supposed to seed based on a lot more than just the odds. Geography, conference matchups, "body of work" v. last couple weeks, etc. It's not a job I'd want.

-jk

Atlanta Duke
03-19-2014, 01:22 PM
Reposting this to clean up typos

Vegas is incensed by the seedings:D

Vegas oddsmakers scathe seeding of this year’s NCAA Tournament

Most of the gripes referenced the Midwest Region where Wichita State landed the No. 1 seed.

“That’s probably the hardest bracket I’ve ever seen in my whole life,” said Ed Salmons, assistant sports book director at the LVH Superbook who oversees college basketball. “It was a comedy show to watch all the teams they stacked that Wichita State would have to beat to get to the Final Four. It was over-the-top insane.”

A modest proposal from Vegas

“I don’t think the committee should be doing it,” Wynn Las Vegas’ Johnny Avello said. “I think they should hand it over to the bookmakers.”

http://lasvegassun.com/news/2014/mar/16/vegas-oddsmakers-scathe-seeding-ncaa-tournament/

FerryFor50
03-19-2014, 01:33 PM
The Committee is in a hard place: they're supposed to seed based on a lot more than just the odds. Geography, conference matchups, "body of work" v. last couple weeks, etc. It's not a job I'd want.

-jk

My main beef with the committee this year was that they seemed to go with more high major at large bids than previous years.

I really felt some mid-majors deserved more of a look.

For example...

Xavier, NCSU, Tenn and Iowa were the last four in. All are in major conferences.

Their profiles:

Xavier: RPI 47, SOS 40, Kenpom #56
NCSU: RPI 54, SOS 23, Kenpom #23
Iowa: RPI 55, SOS 44, Kenpom #28
Tennessee: RPI 40, SOS 11, Kenpom #11

Mid-major teams in the kenpom top 64 that didn't make it in and their conferences:

Louisiana Tech (#35) - C-USA; RPI 59, SOS 211
Southern Miss (#60) - C-USA; RPI 33, SOS 127
Georgia St (#61) - Sun Belt; RPI 82, SOS 253

So the RPI is higher for La Tech, as is the Kenpom, than several of the play-in teams. The only difference is SOS, which most mid and low majors have very little control over. And this isn't even counting SMU, which also got snubbed (32 kenpom, 53 RPI, 135 SOS).

It feels like the committee just got lazy picking teams and simply used SOS as a higher weighted consideration.

OldPhiKap
03-19-2014, 01:40 PM
My main beef with the committee this year was that they seemed to go with more high major at large bids than previous years.

I really felt some mid-majors deserved more of a look.

For example...

Xavier, NCSU, Tenn and Iowa were the last four in. All are in major conferences.

Their profiles:

Xavier: RPI 47, SOS 40, Kenpom #56
NCSU: RPI 54, SOS 23, Kenpom #23
Iowa: RPI 55, SOS 44, Kenpom #28
Tennessee: RPI 40, SOS 11, Kenpom #11

Mid-major teams in the kenpom top 64 that didn't make it in and their conferences:

Louisiana Tech (#35) - C-USA; RPI 59, SOS 211
Southern Miss (#60) - C-USA; RPI 33, SOS 127
Georgia St (#61) - Sun Belt; RPI 82, SOS 253

So the RPI is higher for La Tech, as is the Kenpom, than several of the play-in teams. The only difference is SOS, which most mid and low majors have very little control over. And this isn't even counting SMU, which also got snubbed (32 kenpom, 53 RPI, 135 SOS).

It feels like the committee just got lazy picking teams and simply used SOS as a higher weighted consideration.

It is a tough choice, no doubt.

I guess the counter is that Ga. St. Lost to Clemson last night. La. Tech and S. miss play Iona and Toledo today (respectively) so that may not tell us much vis-vis major conferences. Both of the examples you listed are 3 seeds against the respective sixth seeds.

FerryFor50
03-19-2014, 01:45 PM
My main beef with the committee this year was that they seemed to go with more high major at large bids than previous years.

I really felt some mid-majors deserved more of a look.

For example...

Xavier, NCSU, Tenn and Iowa were the last four in. All are in major conferences.

Their profiles:

Xavier: RPI 47, SOS 40, Kenpom #56
NCSU: RPI 54, SOS 23, Kenpom #23
Iowa: RPI 55, SOS 44, Kenpom #28
Tennessee: RPI 40, SOS 11, Kenpom #11

Mid-major teams in the kenpom top 64 that didn't make it in and their conferences:

Louisiana Tech (#35) - C-USA; RPI 59, SOS 211
Southern Miss (#60) - C-USA; RPI 33, SOS 127
Georgia St (#61) - Sun Belt; RPI 82, SOS 253

So the RPI is higher for La Tech, as is the Kenpom, than several of the play-in teams. The only difference is SOS, which most mid and low majors have very little control over. And this isn't even counting SMU, which also got snubbed (32 kenpom, 53 RPI, 135 SOS).

It feels like the committee just got lazy picking teams and simply used SOS as a higher weighted consideration.

Sagarin data:

NCSU: 67, 3-5 vs top 25; 6-9 vs top 50
Xavier: 48, 2-6 vs top 25; 4-7 vs top 50
Iowa: 17, 2-8 vs top 25; 3-8 vs top 50
Tenn: 25, 1-5 vs top 25; 3-6 vs top 50

La Tech: 34, 0-1 vs top 25; 1-1 vs top 50
Southern Miss: 69, 0-1 vs top 25; 1-2 vs top 50
Georgia St: 72, 0-0 vs top 25; 0-1 vs top 50
SMU: 32, 2-3 vs top 25; 4-6 vs top 50

FerryFor50
03-19-2014, 01:48 PM
It is a tough choice, no doubt.

I guess the counter is that Ga. St. Lost to Clemson last night. La. Tech and S. miss play Iona and Toledo today (respectively) so that may not tell us much vis-vis major conferences. Both of the examples you listed are 3 seeds against the respective sixth seeds.

Yea, Ga St got a tough opening round matchup. Clemson's defense is rough.

I expect La Tech and Southern Miss to acquit themselves, though Toledo (RPI 38) and Iona (RPI 64) I expected to win their conferences. W. Mich and Manhattan had other ideas, however.

LobstersPinchPinch
03-19-2014, 01:49 PM
i just think it's silly to talk about things like "duke is at best an elite 8 team" or "louisville is a final four team" or if "Duke doesn't improve, their ceiling is the sweet 16"

it does not make sense to look at it that way. it's a tournament with a huge amount of variability. each game has a probabilistic set of outcomes and the tournament will only be played once.

Yeah, I think we just disagree on this team's potential (and the definition of "silly.") With 5 of our worst 10 defensive performances coming in the past 5 games, our O appearing to be firing on less than all cylinders recently, inconsistent play by our guards, and what I'd consider tournament under-performance (relative to Kenpom rank) the past 11 years (https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B6Pm-r_YsgGXT0drQ2R3OHFCX2s/edit), I'll be very pleasantly surprised if we make a deep run.

CDu
03-19-2014, 02:03 PM
My main beef with the committee this year was that they seemed to go with more high major at large bids than previous years.

I really felt some mid-majors deserved more of a look.

For example...

Xavier, NCSU, Tenn and Iowa were the last four in. All are in major conferences.

Their profiles:

Xavier: RPI 47, SOS 40, Kenpom #56
NCSU: RPI 54, SOS 23, Kenpom #23
Iowa: RPI 55, SOS 44, Kenpom #28
Tennessee: RPI 40, SOS 11, Kenpom #11

Mid-major teams in the kenpom top 64 that didn't make it in and their conferences:

Louisiana Tech (#35) - C-USA; RPI 59, SOS 211
Southern Miss (#60) - C-USA; RPI 33, SOS 127
Georgia St (#61) - Sun Belt; RPI 82, SOS 253

So the RPI is higher for La Tech, as is the Kenpom, than several of the play-in teams. The only difference is SOS, which most mid and low majors have very little control over. And this isn't even counting SMU, which also got snubbed (32 kenpom, 53 RPI, 135 SOS).

It feels like the committee just got lazy picking teams and simply used SOS as a higher weighted consideration.

It is no doubt a tough job to pick which teams deserve to get into the field. But for the sake of argument, let's take a look at how those teams did:

Georgia State: GSU went 4-5 against the RPI top 150. They went 0-1 against the RPI top 50, 2-2 against the RPI top 50-100, and 2-2 against the RPI top 100-150. And they had 3 losses to teams outside the top 150. Does a team that plays .500 ball against teams in the 50 to 150 range and losses over 10% of their games against the bottom half of division 1 really deserve to get in the tournament? I'm fairly comfortable with them not making the field. In fact, I'd have been REALLY upset if they had made the field.

Southern Miss: Southern Miss has a slightly less awful resume than Georgia State, but I emphasize slightly. They went 1-1 against the top-50 (beating NDSU) and 5-4 against the top-100. But they also have a loss in the 100-150 range and a loss in the 150+ range. That's not good. Again, I don't have a real problem with them being left out. You need to show me more than that you can beat a 12 seed in order for you to be an at-large bid.

La Tech: La Tech is the closest, in my opinion, to having a strong case. But even they went just 3-4 against the RPI top 51-100, and they had the one awful loss to a 150+ team. Compare that with State who went 3-1 against the RPI top 51-100, had no awful losses (3 bad losses), but also had a top-25 win on a neutral court and 2 other top-50 wins on the road.

So NCSU vs La Tech is a bit of a tossup for me. On the one hand, Tech did a little better against the bottom feeders. But NCSU played a lot tougher non-conference schedule, and they actually got some really good wins against single-digit seeds. The committee chose to go with the team with the more impressive wins in this case.

Compared with any of those other two schools, it's a no-brainer in favor of NCSU.

Where it gets interesting is SMU vs NCSU. In this case, SMU has some nice wins, but worse losses. They were certainly not helped a ton by their conference, but they compounded that by playing an absolutely atrocious non-conference schedule (NC SOS #303). So while I'd say the resumes are comparable, I'm totally okay with the committee penalizing SMU for playing nobody out of conference.

If you're going to play a joke of a non-conference schedule, you need to avoid any bad losses. If you have a few bad losses (as all of these bubble-burst teams do), you better have at least gotten some really good scalps as well.

cwarner62
03-19-2014, 04:54 PM
I agree with everyone that says we definitely shouldn't overlook Mercer but I'll be cheering hard for Iowa tonight. I would much rather face them or UMass than Tennessee on Sunday. As a Gator I can tell you from seeing them 3 times, they have a lot of size and are one of the best rebounding teams in the country - exactly the sort of team that's given us problems. They don't have anyone that's super tall but they are very big - Maymon and Stokes are both 6'8 260 and know how to pound the offensive glass. They were dominating Florida for the 1st half on the glass in the SEC semis and the Gators are a good rebounding team. They also have several guards that are 6'6 or taller and McRae is deadly. They scare me a lot more than Michigan does in the next round!

weezie
03-19-2014, 05:19 PM
They scare me a lot more than Michigan does in the next round!

Don't misunderestimate the axe that michigan would love to grind against us. That matchup makes me very uneasy.

Atlanta Duke
03-19-2014, 06:10 PM
Don't misunderestimate the axe that michigan would love to grind against us. That matchup makes me very uneasy.

As opposed to the axe every team wants to grind against Duke?

Anyone in college basketball who ever got passed over for anything sees Duke as the stand-in for whomever passed them over

Nobody brings less than their A+ game against Duke

Mike Corey
03-19-2014, 06:12 PM
http://youtu.be/ToEMyjPS2SQ

weezie
03-19-2014, 06:38 PM
As opposed to the axe every team wants to grind against Duke?

Anyone in college basketball who ever got passed over for anything sees Duke as the stand-in for whomever passed them over

Nobody brings less than their A+ game against Duke

Yes, as opposed to the usual axe that every other team in the universe brings to our games. They have more reason than most to play, shall we say, like douchetards.

michigan is a whiny bunch of sluggos and we've had their number forever.

Atlanta Duke
03-19-2014, 07:11 PM
Yes, as opposed to the usual axe that every other team in the universe brings to our games. They have more reason than most to play, shall we say, like douchetards.

michigan is a whiny bunch of sluggos and we've had their number forever.

But how many of the current players care about "forever"?

IMO the current Michigan players are not carrying a torch for the Fab Five, who played Duke when most of the current team was not yet born. I doubt they will be driven by Jalen Rose's angst on the Fab Five ESPN special :)

weezie
03-19-2014, 08:29 PM
Oh, I wasn't referencing the "Meh Five", more like Charlotte 2011 and Durham last December. Beilein sorta carries himself as itchy and irritated.

Plus there seems to always be one guy with too much hair on the wolverine team, rotating every so often.

Just saying, they might be a tough out.

sagegrouse
03-19-2014, 09:07 PM
Yeah, I think we just disagree on this team's potential (and the definition of "silly.") With 5 of our worst 10 defensive performances coming in the past 5 games, our O appearing to be firing on less than all cylinders recently, inconsistent play by our guards, and what I'd consider tournament under-performance (relative to Kenpom rank) the past 11 years (https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B6Pm-r_YsgGXT0drQ2R3OHFCX2s/edit), I'll be very pleasantly surprised if we make a deep run.

Three points Mr. Lobster:

a. Duke is ranked in the top ten by RPI, KenPom, AP and Coaches: 7, 6, 8, and 6.

b. This is a Duke fan website.

c. You are a new poster, who joined only two weeks ago.

You are bringing an opinion, not not argued in any detail whatsoever, that Duke is "at best an elite eight team" and that you wouldn't be surprised if Duke lost to Mercer. You don't mind if we don't take you seriously or consider you a troll, do you? Heck we could go through the entire bracket and not face a composite top-ten team.

You gotta do better.

Kindly, Sage

Atlanta Duke
03-19-2014, 09:07 PM
Oh, I wasn't referencing the "Meh Five", more like Charlotte 2011 and Durham last December. Beilein sorta carries himself as itchy and irritated.

Plus there seems to always be one guy with too much hair on the wolverine team, rotating every so often.

Just saying, they might be a tough out.

Agreed they are a tough out

Tennessee is my more immediate concern after hopefully beating Mercer

Survive and advance - my guess is either the 2 or 3 seed will not make it to next week given how this season is playing out

freshmanjs
03-19-2014, 09:27 PM
There are no perfect analogs, and of what there are, it's a mixed bag. Here are some top 10 offenses and 30+ defenses from the past five years:

2013:
Michigan: 2 off-58 def -- 4-seed, Final Four
Colorado State: 7-98 -- 8-seed, R32
Iowa State: 8-121 -- 10 seed, R32

2012:
Missouri: 1-76 -- 2-seed, R64
Indiana: 4-58 -- 4-seed, Sweet 16
Florida: 3-119 -- 7-seed, Elite Eight
Duke: 9-62 -- 2-seed, R64
Purdue: 6-100 -- 10-seed, R32
Creighton: 5-183 -- 8-seed, R32

2011:
Wisconsin: 2-63 -- 4-seed, Sweet 16
Notre Dame: 3-62 -- 2-seed, R32
Washington: 9-42 -- 7-seed, R32

2010:
Maryland: 6-40 -- 4-seed, R32
Baylor: 5-52 -- 3-seed, Elite Eight
California: 3-81 -- 8-seed, R32
Villanova: 8-62 -- 2-seed, R32

2009:
Marquette: 9-56 -- 6-seed, R32
UCLA: 3-37 -- 6-seed, R32
UNC: 1-35 -- 1-seed, champ
Pitt: 2-34 -- 1-seed, Elite Eight
Arizona State: 5-36 -- 6-seed, R32
Oklahoma: 8-46 -- 2-seed, Elite Eight
Arizona: 7-132 -- 12-seed, Sweet 16

thank you for this. i find it very interesting because i think it really invalidates all of the "no one ever makes the final four with a #100 defense" type assertions. there have been VERY few teams with profiles like Duke -- elite (top 3) offense and mediocre (#100) defense. the sample size is so small that I'd say we have no idea how teams like that are likely to do in the tournament. therefore, i remain hopeful, optimistic but at the same time have modest expectations. thanks again.

devildeac
03-19-2014, 09:34 PM
There's a little discussion over on the Ymm, Beer thread for folks who might want to gather after the 2nd game Friday for some tasty beverages at Bottle Revolution (6 taps of great beer plus a fabulous selection of micros) which is adjacent to Buffalo Brothers, Guasaca and Which Wich.

NashvilleDevil
03-19-2014, 09:57 PM
Agreed they are a tough out

Tennessee is my more immediate concern after hopefully beating Mercer

Survive and advance - my guess is either the 2 or 3 seed will not make it to next week given how this season is playing out

Why is Tennessee a concern? Tonight's winner plays UMass right? So you're hopeful Duke will beat Mercer but are confidant in Tennessee beating Iowa and UMass?

sporthenry
03-19-2014, 10:45 PM
Terrible call against Tennessee. Almost looked like the Iowa player raising his arms caused Stoke's elbow to hit the Iowa player. 2 FT's and the ball. Pretty big swing.

gofurman
03-19-2014, 11:06 PM
Terrible call against Tennessee. Almost looked like the Iowa player raising his arms caused Stoke's elbow to hit the Iowa player. 2 FT's and the ball. Pretty big swing.

Those watching ut v Iowa ... Who do you think is tougher for duke.?. I hear UT. UT seems to gave 2 biiig boys 6'8 260 lbs types. That seems scary. What's odd is ut only plays those two fowards. Everyone else is listed as a guard on espn. Haven't seen that in a loooong time. No other forward or center that plays??? Ah, Reese is 6'8" but listed as a guard...

Anyway, thoughts on who we would rather face if either can beat UMass?

Bluedog
03-19-2014, 11:13 PM
Those watching ut v Iowa ... Who do you think is tougher for duke.?. I hear UT. UT seems to gave 2 biiig boys 6'8 260 lbs types. That seems scary. What's odd is ut only plays those two fowards. Everyone else is listed as a guard on espn. Haven't seen that in a loooong time. No other forward or center that plays??? Ah, Reese is 6'8" but listed as a guard...

Anyway, thoughts on who we would rather face if either can beat UMass?

I'd rather play Iowa than TN. Iowa is probably more fundamentally sound, but way less physical and more reliant on 3s.TN can ugly up the games....I can envision us having three players foul out and requiring a physical defensive battle vs. an up and down transition game vs. Iowa. We are also good at closing out on shooters. Have to get there first, of course.

sporthenry
03-19-2014, 11:26 PM
OT would be nice. More tired legs.

ice-9
03-19-2014, 11:28 PM
I'd rather play Iowa than TN. Iowa is probably more fundamentally sound, but way less physical and more reliant on 3s.TN can ugly up the games....I can envision us having three players foul out and requiring a physical defensive battle vs. an up and down transition game vs. Iowa. We are also good at closing out on shooters. Have to get there first, of course.

Yes, exactly! Iowa is a finesse team and I think we do better against teams like that. Tennessee is a power team, the type our front-line tends to foul a lot against.

duke4ever19
03-19-2014, 11:28 PM
OT would be nice. More tired legs.

Overtime it is!

sporthenry
03-19-2014, 11:31 PM
I'd rather play Iowa than TN. Iowa is probably more fundamentally sound, but way less physical and more reliant on 3s.TN can ugly up the games....I can envision us having three players foul out and requiring a physical defensive battle vs. an up and down transition game vs. Iowa. We are also good at closing out on shooters. Have to get there first, of course.

Agreed here. Iowa's defense is a mess. They throw some zone and some trapping out there but Tennessee shredded it. M2M, they aren't much better and if you want to go offense vs offense, I'll take Duke versus anyone. Duke chases teams off the 3 point line as well.

Tennessee can certainly ugly up a game much like Clemson or Virginia. Their big boys will also pose a problem for our bigs. Assuming MP3 is used sparingly, fouls could easily become an issue especially on Jabari. I legitimately fear Tennessee. They aren't your traditional 11 seed whether it is how they are playing now/the eye test or KenPom, I'll certainly be sweating a game against UT.

sporthenry
03-19-2014, 11:37 PM
Stupid play but put me in the, you don't call an intentional foul with 1:30 left in OT unless there is blood.

FerryFor50
03-19-2014, 11:40 PM
Stupid play but put me in the, you don't call an intentional foul with 1:30 left in OT unless there is blood.

I didn't understand that call at all. He made a play on the ball. He didn't make excessive contact. If anything, the Tenn player sold the contact. They should have reviewed it.

If Tenn is allowed to be physical as they've been with Iowa, then they will be trouble.

Bluedog
03-19-2014, 11:43 PM
I didn't understand that call at all. He made a play on the ball. He didn't make excessive contact. If anything, the Tenn player sold the contact. They should have reviewed it.

If Tenn is allowed to be physical as they've been with Iowa, then they will be trouble.

Agreed. I will be seriously cheering for UMass assuming we win our game first. They are super physical.

duke4ever19
03-19-2014, 11:44 PM
Agreed here. Iowa's defense is a mess. They throw some zone and some trapping out there but Tennessee shredded it. M2M, they aren't much better and if you want to go offense vs offense, I'll take Duke versus anyone. Duke chases teams off the 3 point line as well.

Tennessee can certainly ugly up a game much like Clemson or Virginia. Their big boys will also pose a problem for our bigs. Assuming MP3 is used sparingly, fouls could easily become an issue especially on Jabari. I legitimately fear Tennessee. They aren't your traditional 11 seed whether it is how they are playing now/the eye test or KenPom, I'll certainly be sweating a game against UT.

Agreed. It is the bruising, rather slow, methodical teams that have me worried. It's against these teams that foul trouble for Parker and Jefferson could be a big problem, especially if a team like Tennessee is benefitting from quick whistles in the paint.

sporthenry
03-19-2014, 11:48 PM
I didn't understand that call at all. He made a play on the ball. He didn't make excessive contact. If anything, the Tenn player sold the contact. They should have reviewed it.

If Tenn is allowed to be physical as they've been with Iowa, then they will be trouble.

Using 2 arms to wrap up a player is commonly seen as not making a play on the ball. It is called fairly inconsistently and anytime you have a 50/50 call, just hate to see that called at the end. All in all, not a terrible call but if refs aren't going to call it the other 39 or 44 minutes, I hate to see it in the last minute.

FerryFor50
03-19-2014, 11:49 PM
Using 2 arms to wrap up a player is commonly seen as not making a play on the ball. It is called fairly inconsistently and anytime you have a 50/50 call, just hate to see that called at the end. All in all, not a terrible call but if refs aren't going to call it the other 39 or 44 minutes, I hate to see it in the last minute.

He only had one arm in there, though...

gofurman
03-19-2014, 11:50 PM
Don't like OT. Why? Don't want UT To win. Now I see what others saw in UT. I see a Clemson type in UT. Defense much like Clemson. Big strong guys. Not sure ut has great penetrating guards (the other thing I fear) but ut has the girth and defense that we struggle with. Think Clemson

Here is why I am pulling for Umass - ut last 7 scores allowed (their opponents score)::
68
38 !
54
45
44
56 Florida ,,
65

Really is Clemson ish, which we really really struggle with. Go UMass ! I have said before that great D teams are a nightmare for us bc they hold us to 60 and we can't afford a Defensive lapse - which we often do. In games of 80-70 our d lapses are masked

KandG
03-19-2014, 11:59 PM
Suddenly, I no longer feel certain about getting past this weekend. Duke should do it, but...Tennessee is exactly the kind of team Duke has trouble solving, despite the talent disparity. Sigh.

El_Diablo
03-20-2014, 12:02 AM
At least now we can do away with the silly "well, they have to win twice before playing us" dismissal of Tennessee.

sporthenry
03-20-2014, 12:03 AM
Tennessee's defense is good but not sure they are UVA/Clemson good. At the very least, it is a bit different. It isn't quite pack line and Iowa had chances in this game. Shot 25% from 3 and missed some open shots. If Duke shoots 25% from 3, they will be in trouble any game after the first one.

Tennessee's offense wasn't great either. Can't let them get out in transition which has been a problem this year. Also a good offensive rebounding team but had a relatively poor night. Duke's defensive rebounding has improved but those big boys can take over a game whenever. Hood on McCrae or whoever they put on McCrae will likely be a big x-factor. Just have visions of McCrae getting Hood in foul trouble and Parker getting in foul trouble on his own.

gofurman
03-20-2014, 12:03 AM
Suddenly, I no longer feel certain about getting past this weekend. Duke should do it, but...Tennessee is exactly the kind of team Duke has trouble solving, despite the talent disparity. Sigh.

Right. Mercer and Umass I wasn't afraid of - they can beat duke but I was liking it. Please win UMass !!!

LobstersPinchPinch
03-20-2014, 12:06 AM
Three points Mr. Lobster:

a. Duke is ranked in the top ten by RPI, KenPom, AP and Coaches: 7, 6, 8, and 6.

b. This is a Duke fan website.

c. You are a new poster, who joined only two weeks ago.

You are bringing an opinion, not not argued in any detail whatsoever, that Duke is "at best an elite eight team" and that you wouldn't be surprised if Duke lost to Mercer. You don't mind if we don't take you seriously or consider you a troll, do you? Heck we could go through the entire bracket and not face a composite top-ten team.

You gotta do better.

Kindly, Sage

You know it's interesting that a critical perspective on this year's team is considered trollish by some folks. Yet this thread is peppered with fear - of not looking past Mercer (ranked about 100 in the RPI), of getting bruised by Tenn (ranked around 30). These aren't good teams, at least not ones that should strike such fear into a true top 10 team.

So please explain how you apparently dislike my directly critical perspective yet are willing to tolerate the fingers-crossed perspective prevalent elsewhere. Because they amount to the same thing when it comes to this year's team.

Sage, kindly skip my posts if they offend you so. It's certainly not my intention to get you upset.

p.s. Exhibit A: The post above mine.

gofurman
03-20-2014, 12:10 AM
Tennessee's defense is good but not sure they are UVA/Clemson good. At the very least, it is a bit different. It isn't quite pack line and Iowa had chances in this game. Shot 25% from 3 and missed some open shots. If Duke shoots 25% from 3, they will be in trouble any game after the first one.

Tennessee's offense wasn't great either. Can't let them get out in transition which has been a problem this year. Also a good offensive rebounding team but had a relatively poor night. Duke's defensive rebounding has improved but those big boys can take over a game whenever. Hood on McCrae or whoever they put on McCrae will likely be a big x-factor. Just have visions of McCrae getting Hood in foul trouble and Parker getting in foul trouble on his own.

Yup - very few teams run two forwards at 6'8 260 pounds. A different type of front court. Below the rim but huge width and strength. Most teams may have one guy like that but the other guy is skinny ( unc w Meeks plus Brice Johnson )

bbosbbos
03-20-2014, 12:14 AM
I trust K. I am not afraid of any team, including uva, zona and KU. We can beat everyone in ncaa. What we need is to play our best and stay focused.

Why fans start to panic now? If you were one of our players and scared of ut, then you need to leave the team and never touch basketball.

sporthenry
03-20-2014, 12:16 AM
of getting bruised by Tenn (ranked around 30). These aren't good teams, at least not ones that should strike such fear into a true top 10 team.


Ranked 30th by what? RPI is a flawed metric for ranking teams. KenPom has them at 11. Not that he is the end all/be all but he actually tries to be a ranking system.

Likewise, I'm sure there are plenty teams ranked in the 20's of polls that strike fear into top 10 teams. For one, the tournament is all about match ups. I'm sure Wichita State is afraid of Kentucky. Does that make them not a true top seed? I've heard Syracuse fans fearful of Ohio State. Connecticut could easily beat Nova.

Atlanta Duke
03-20-2014, 12:22 AM
Why is Tennessee a concern? Tonight's winner plays UMass right? So you're hopeful Duke will beat Mercer but are confidant in Tennessee beating Iowa and UMass?

Yes - IMO UT will bet UMass

bbosbbos
03-20-2014, 12:22 AM
How can you know? You might win that 1 billion easily.


I'm sure Wichita State is afraid of Kentucky. Does that make them not a true top seed? I've heard Syracuse fans fearful of Ohio State. Connecticut could easily beat Nova.

gofurman
03-20-2014, 12:23 AM
I'll throw ones other anti-UT point in here... The game is in Raleigh so UMass or Iowa would have very few true fans there (only those rooting for the udog). Ut, by contrast, would bring a lot of fans Go Mass!!!

sporthenry
03-20-2014, 12:23 AM
I trust K. I am not afraid of any team, including uva, zona and KU. We can beat everyone in ncaa. What we need is to play our best and stay focused.

Why fans start to panic now? If you were one of our players and scared of ut, then you need to leave the team and never touch basketball.

Yes, Duke can beat anyone. And nearly anyone can beat Duke. I never understand the whole, fans can't be scared of a certain match up or fans can't be confident in certain games. We aren't players. We're allowed to be irrational. Heck, that is what makes us fans. So if someone wants to look past Mercer, that is their prerogative. If someone wants to worry about Tennessee, that is their prerogative.

Personally, worrying about a team tries to bring the game and season into perspective. Traditionally, losing to an 11 seed would be seen as a bad loss and perhaps the ending to a bad season. But understanding that Tennessee is essentially a coin flip (53% favorites according to KenPom, ignoring the semi-home possibility of Raleigh) puts a potential loss into perspective. Instead of being devastated like after a loss to Lehigh, I'll understand what happened more. Beyond that, beating the Volunteers and getting the S16 would make for a successful tournament just given the match ups.

LobstersPinchPinch
03-20-2014, 12:24 AM
Ranked 30th by what? RPI is a flawed metric for ranking teams. KenPom has them at 11. Not that he is the end all/be all but he actually tries to be a ranking system.

Likewise, I'm sure there are plenty teams ranked in the 20's of polls that strike fear into top 10 teams. For one, the tournament is all about match ups. I'm sure Wichita State is afraid of Kentucky. Does that make them not a true top seed? I've heard Syracuse fans fearful of Ohio State. Connecticut could easily beat Nova.

TN is 40 RPI, 31 BPI. If those are flawed, I won't argue, but Duke's numbers were referenced to indicate our strength so I simply mentioned TN's.

Honestly, this argument is unnecessary. I went to Duke 2x - undergrad and JD - so no one can question my love for the school. I simply think this year's team isn't going to do well in the tourney. Criticizing a subjective opinion negates the very reason we all come on these boards, yes?

Kedsy
03-20-2014, 12:29 AM
Tennessee can certainly ugly up a game much like Clemson or Virginia. Their big boys will also pose a problem for our bigs. Assuming MP3 is used sparingly, fouls could easily become an issue especially on Jabari. I legitimately fear Tennessee. They aren't your traditional 11 seed whether it is how they are playing now/the eye test or KenPom, I'll certainly be sweating a game against UT.

First time I've seen Tennessee this season, but I wasn't impressed at all. They looked undisciplined on offense and meh on defense. They went to OT (after trailing for most of the game) with a team that lost 6 of its previous 7, and if their size is so formidable, how come they gave up a career high 16 points to a guy who probably isn't as good as Marshall Plumlee but in this game looked like he could get any basket he wanted.

Maybe Tennessee is good but just had a bad game, but they certainly didn't show me anything that would make me sweat if we played them.

LobstersPinchPinch
03-20-2014, 12:35 AM
First time I've seen Tennessee this season, but I wasn't impressed at all. They looked undisciplined on offense and meh on defense. They went to OT (after trailing for most of the game) with a team that lost 6 of its previous 7, and if their size is so formidable, how come they gave up a career high 16 points to a guy who probably isn't as good as Marshall Plumlee but in this game looked like he could get any basket he wanted.

Maybe Tennessee is good but just had a bad game, but they certainly didn't show me anything that would make me sweat if we played them.

So you're saying Marshall is good for 20 if we play TN? :-)

I didn't watch the game but do worry if we play them, just given the D-eff numbers. You're a data guy, are they one of the most under-seeded teams in recent memory? (based on Kenpom)

dukelion
03-20-2014, 12:38 AM
UT up to 9 in KenPom after the win....Duke is at 6.

Definitely an extremely tough 2nd game for us.

I take solace in the fact that UT's bench is pretty slim so 3 games in 5 days for their big guys will be a test....especially guarding Jabari.

IMO Marshall should get major minutes if we end up playing them. I just feel Amile simply lacks the bulk to be effective at all against that front line. Josh should get minutes too.

Jabari should have a big game as they really lack a match-up for him and also lack any real shot blockers as well.

KandG
03-20-2014, 12:42 AM
First time I've seen Tennessee this season, but I wasn't impressed at all. They looked undisciplined on offense and meh on defense. They went to OT (after trailing for most of the game) with a team that lost 6 of its previous 7, and if their size is so formidable, how come they gave up a career high 16 points to a guy who probably isn't as good as Marshall Plumlee but in this game looked like he could get any basket he wanted.

Maybe Tennessee is good but just had a bad game, but they certainly didn't show me anything that would make me sweat if we played them.

I think Pomeroy himself explained the enigma of Tennessee as well as anyone in his column on Deadspin earlier today:

Is A Number 11 Seed Actually Among the Best Teams In The Country? (http://regressing.deadspin.com/is-a-no-11-seed-actually-among-the-best-teams-in-the-c-1547060812)

Kedsy
03-20-2014, 12:53 AM
So you're saying Marshall is good for 20 if we play TN? :-)

I didn't watch the game but do worry if we play them, just given the D-eff numbers. You're a data guy, are they one of the most under-seeded teams in recent memory? (based on Kenpom)

This happens a couple times every year. I posted this list in another thread:

2013:
Florida, #1 Pomeroy; 3-seed; made Elite Eight;
Pitt, #7 Pomeroy; 8-seed; lost in round of 64;

2012:
Wisconsin, #6 Pomeroy; 4-seed; lost in Sweet 16;
Memphis, #9 Pomeroy; 8-seed; lost in round of 64;

2011:
Texas, #4 Pomeroy; 4-seed; lost in round of 32;
Utah State, #16 Pomeroy; 12-seed; lost in round of 64;

2010:
Wisconsin, #3 Pomeroy; 4-seed; lost in round of 32;
BYU, #7 Pomeroy; 7-seed; lost in round of 32;

2009:
Memphis, #1 Pomeroy; 2-seed; lost in Sweet 16;
Gonzaga, #5 Pomeroy; 4-seed; lost in Sweet 16;
West Virginia, #8 Pomeroy, 6-seed; lost in round of 64;

I don't know if it's because the teams were overrated in Pomeroy, or because seeding matters a lot more than Ken Pomeroy and others seem to believe, or just dumb luck in a small sample, but other than last year's Florida team (that beat a #14 seed, a #11 seed, and a #15, before losing to a #4 seed in the Elite Eight), these "underseeded" teams haven't done so well.

We'll have to see about this year's Louisville (#2 Pomeroy; 4-seed) and Tennessee (#13 Pomeroy; 11-seed).

LobstersPinchPinch
03-20-2014, 12:57 AM
This happens a couple times every year. I posted this list in another thread:

I don't know if it's because the teams were overrated in Pomeroy, or because seeding matters a lot more than Ken Pomeroy and others seem to believe, or just dumb luck in a small sample, but other than last year's Florida team (that beat a #14 seed, a #11 seed, and a #15, before losing to a #4 seed in the Elite Eight), these "underseeded" teams haven't done so well.

We'll have to see about this year's Louisville (#2 Pomeroy; 4-seed) and Tennessee (#13 Pomeroy; 11-seed).

You rock, thanks.

g-money
03-20-2014, 12:59 AM
So have we concluded that UMass is chopped liver? (not asking tongue in cheek - mainly just curious if I need to make a last-minute amendment to my bracket!)

As the tournament plays out, it will be interesting to see if the committee's seeding ends up as bad as the experts are predicting.

Edit: Evidently Kedsy beat me to the punch, with a much more quantitative version of my one-sentence summary above. Well played.

sporthenry
03-20-2014, 01:54 AM
So have we concluded that UMass is chopped liver? (not asking tongue in cheek - mainly just curious if I need to make a last-minute amendment to my bracket!)

As the tournament plays out, it will be interesting to see if the committee's seeding ends up as bad as the experts are predicting.

Edit: Evidently Kedsy beat me to the punch, with a much more quantitative version of my one-sentence summary above. Well played.

I'm not a big believer in UMASS to begin with. You could essentially flip the seeds and you'd probably have a 6-11 type game. According to Kenpom, UT has a better chance of winning than any of the other 6 seeds at 73%. Now of course 73% results in just a 6 point spread so UMass can win.

Mudge
03-20-2014, 04:26 AM
IF Duke defeats Mercer, does anyone have definite data on the broadcast network and time of Duke's second game against the UMass/Tennessee winner? I know it would be Sunday, but what time? And would it be CBS, TNT, TBS or TruTV?

NashvilleDevil
03-20-2014, 07:08 AM
Suddenly, I no longer feel certain about getting past this weekend. Duke should do it, but...Tennessee is exactly the kind of team Duke has trouble solving, despite the talent disparity. Sigh.

Did Tennessee get an automatic bye to Sunday? Because that's the only way Duke is playing them. They still have to get by UMass first before they play Duke. And yes I think Duke destroys Mercer on Friday.

pfrduke
03-20-2014, 08:53 AM
IF Duke defeats Mercer, does anyone have definite data on the broadcast network and time of Duke's second game against the UMass/Tennessee winner? I know it would be Sunday, but what time? And would it be CBS, TNT, TBS or TruTV?

Neither time nor network are announced until after Friday's games are all complete.

Last season, the Sunday games were at 12:15, 2:45, 5:15, 6:10, 7:10, 7:40, 8:40, and 9:40. TruTV stopped broadcasting after the first two days, so all games were on CBS, TNT, or TBS.

Reilly
03-20-2014, 09:08 AM
And the Sunday games will be coming from Raleigh, St. Louis, San Antonio, and San Diego ... so figure Duke (if advancing) for an early-ish time.

FerryFor50
03-20-2014, 09:52 AM
TN is 40 RPI, 31 BPI. If those are flawed, I won't argue, but Duke's numbers were referenced to indicate our strength so I simply mentioned TN's.

Honestly, this argument is unnecessary. I went to Duke 2x - undergrad and JD - so no one can question my love for the school. I simply think this year's team isn't going to do well in the tourney. Criticizing a subjective opinion negates the very reason we all come on these boards, yes?

RPI and BPI are certainly flawed. You're better off looking at kenpom and Sagarin numbers:

http://kenpom.com/

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaab/sagarin/

Those generally do a better job of looking at multiple factors for how good a team is other than sheer SOS and win/loss, which is what the RPI does. They factor in offensive and defensive efficiency, etc.

Regarding "troll" comments, I think it's just a natural reaction to new posters that immediately go into chicken little mode. I got the same thing when I first started. Over time, people will stop calling you a troll and just think of you as a pessimist. ;)

FerryFor50
03-20-2014, 10:24 AM
Did Tennessee get an automatic bye to Sunday? Because that's the only way Duke is playing them. They still have to get by UMass first before they play Duke. And yes I think Duke destroys Mercer on Friday.

Agreed. UMass isn't a bad team - they were top 10 earlier in the season, if I recall.

They hit a rough patch when conference play started, but also squeaked by in a lot of games in non-conference.

But their best player is a tiny 5'9" PG. He averages 15.8 ppg and 7 assists.

Their front line consists of 4 guys that are 6'8" or taller, with one 6'10" guy. But most of them are the thin, athletic Amile Jefferson types. The 6'10" guy - Cady Lalanne (not related to Jack Lalanne (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_LaLanne)) is 250 lbs. Averages 11.4 ppg, 8 rpg and 2.2 blocks. So he *might* be able to negate Tennessee's bigs a bit.

UMass has an ORtg of 105.7 (165th of 351) and a DRtg of 98.3 (57th of 351). Mass attempts 15.6 threes per game and is 46th in rebounding.

Tennessee has an ORtg of 113.1 (36th of 351) and a DRtg of 96.7 (33rd of 351). Tennessee is 12th in the country in rebounding.

Iowa has an ORtg of 115.0 (18th of 351) and a DRtg of 99.3 (69th of 351). Iowa attempts 16.5 threes per game and is 10th in the country in rebounding.

Tennessee out-rebounded Iowa by 7 and held them to 41% shooting. Part of the bad shooting was Iowa's star guard having a very off shooting night. Think Iowa doesn't face tough defenses in the Big 10? There are plenty of tougher defenses there than Tennessee, but Roy Devyn Marble still averaged 18.3 ppg. He scored 7 last night.

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/roy-devyn-marble-1/gamelog/2014/

Tennessee also shot 30 FTs to Iowa's 15. Tennessee shoots 71% from the line on the year but hit 83% against Iowa. Opponents averaged 20.7 FTs per game against Iowa, so it was a little bit of an outlier. I think Iowa fell victim to what most Big 10 teams do in the tourny - fouls that aren't fouls in the Big 10 are suddenly fouls in the NCAA tournament.

UMass will likely have more trouble scoring than Iowa did, but will likely defend better. If Clemson is your barometer for Tennessee, UMass beat Clemson 62-56 at Littlejohn. They've also taken down the following tournament teams:

7 seed New Mexico
10 seed BYU
11 seed Providence
11 seed Nebraska
10 seed St Joe's
5 seed VCU
9 seed GW

Tennessee's best wins:

12 seed Xavier (out of tournament, lost to NCSU)
1 seed UVA (by almost 30)
12 seed Iowa

Plus, Iowa played in a better overall conference than Tenn. Would Tenn have even made the tournament if they played in the Big 10?

UMass can certainly beat Tennessee. As can Duke.

LobstersPinchPinch
03-20-2014, 10:34 AM
RPI and BPI are certainly flawed. You're better off looking at kenpom and Sagarin numbers:

http://kenpom.com/

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaab/sagarin/

Those generally do a better job of looking at multiple factors for how good a team is other than sheer SOS and win/loss, which is what the RPI does. They factor in offensive and defensive efficiency, etc.

Regarding "troll" comments, I think it's just a natural reaction to new posters that immediately go into chicken little mode. I got the same thing when I first started. Over time, people will stop calling you a troll and just think of you as a pessimist. ;)

I'm not a pessimist! Ok, well maybe just this year. :-) Anyway, appreciate your note.

Bluedog
03-20-2014, 10:46 AM
Tennessee's best wins:

12 seed Xavier (out of tournament, lost to NCSU)
1 seed UVA (by almost 30)
12 seed Iowa

Actually, they won by 35! (And Iowa is an 11-seed.)



Plus, Iowa played in a better overall conference than Tenn. Would Tenn have even made the tournament if they played in the Big 10?

UMass can certainly beat Tennessee. As can Duke.

Agreed! Let's do this!

Dukehky
03-20-2014, 02:00 PM
Is the pre game presser from Duke vs Mercer available anywhere, or will GoDuke eventually put it up?

GLTBD
03-20-2014, 07:20 PM
Every time I click on this thread and hit view first unread it always takes me to the very last post even though there are previous posts I didn't read. Any suggestions? The other threads I have no issues. I'm thinking it has something to do with me looking at the survey. Any help would be appreciated.:confused:

-jk
03-20-2014, 07:36 PM
Every time I click on this thread and hit view first unread it always takes me to the very last post even though there are previous posts I didn't read. Any suggestions? The other threads I have no issues. I'm thinking it has something to do with me looking at the survey. Any help would be appreciated.:confused:

Never heard of the problem. Try logging out, clearing DBR cookies, and logging back in?

-jk

sagegrouse
03-20-2014, 08:03 PM
You know it's interesting that a critical perspective on this year's team is considered trollish by some folks. Yet this thread is peppered with fear - of not looking past Mercer (ranked about 100 in the RPI), of getting bruised by Tenn (ranked around 30). These aren't good teams, at least not ones that should strike such fear into a true top 10 team.

So please explain how you apparently dislike my directly critical perspective yet are willing to tolerate the fingers-crossed perspective prevalent elsewhere. Because they amount to the same thing when it comes to this year's team.

Sage, kindly skip my posts if they offend you so. It's certainly not my intention to get you upset.

p.s. Exhibit A: The post above mine.

Mr, Lobster, you are a welcome addition to DBR, and I encourage you to keep posting. I'm sort of a "bottom feeder" around here, challenging posts that IMHO (where the H is silent) are less than logical and need more or better rationale; I'm trying to make the Board more interesting. In your case, you were pessimistic about Duke ("elite eight at best," I think you said) without giving any supporting reasons. Posters here should provide a rationale, especially when going against what passes for "conventional wisdom*" here -- that Duke has a reasonable chance of making the Final Four and some chance of a Championship.

I don't think you are trolling -- you have an excellent sense of humor, which trolls don;t show -- but an unsupported pessimistic view on a Duke fan site may lead people to wonder about your knowledge or your motives. [Boy! This is stuffy!] Anyway, keep posting!

Kindly, Sage
*CW around here usually overestimates Duke's chances

NashvilleDevil
03-20-2014, 09:19 PM
State has missed 4 of their last 5 free throws. 6 point game with around 2 to go.

pfrduke
03-20-2014, 09:31 PM
State has missed 4 of their last 5 free throws. 6 point game with around 2 to go.

They're trying as hard as they can to give this game away...

_Gary
03-20-2014, 09:32 PM
Good Lord what a choke job by NC State. They'll be lucky to get out of this game with a win now.

Mabdul Doobakus
03-20-2014, 09:33 PM
The end of this NC State game has been painful to watch.

Mabdul Doobakus
03-20-2014, 09:35 PM
There should be a triple bonus. After 15 fouls in the half, you get three free throws.

Mabdul Doobakus
03-20-2014, 09:36 PM
I wonder what the record is for most combined missed free throws in a game. The teams have combined to go 23-49.

Acymetric
03-20-2014, 09:37 PM
There should be a triple bonus. After 15 fouls in the half, you get three free throws.

How many games would Duke have lost this year as a result though?

ice-9
03-20-2014, 09:38 PM
Oh...my. I'd hate to be a Pack fan right now. What a choke job.

They can still win this with a lot of SLU players in foul trouble, but still.

_Gary
03-20-2014, 09:39 PM
If NC State doesn't win this game in OT I'm looking at this as one the biggest choke jobs of all time in the NCAA's. That was just brutal.

jipops
03-20-2014, 09:42 PM
If NC State doesn't win this game in OT I'm looking at this as one the biggest choke jobs of all time in the NCAA's. That was just brutal.

Not as bad as Maryland's 22 point blown lead to us in '01.

Horrible collapse though.

Dr. Rosenrosen
03-20-2014, 09:43 PM
How is it that the POY doesn't get the ball in his hands?

ice-9
03-20-2014, 09:43 PM
Not as bad as Maryland's 22 point blown lead to us in '01.

Horrible collapse though.

At least that happened early in the game -- plenty of time for Duke to come back.

This collapse is especially brutal because it came so late. I mean...Hack a Pack!?

johnb
03-20-2014, 09:44 PM
The State players look shell shocked. 15 missed free throws in the second half? c'mon puppies!

_Gary
03-20-2014, 09:44 PM
Not as bad as Maryland's 22 point blown lead to us in '01.

Horrible collapse though.

It's the lead with the time left on the clock that makes this one so bad. A 16 point lead with only about 8 minutes left, according to the announcers. That's just insane.

devildeac
03-20-2014, 09:46 PM
If NC State doesn't win this game in OT I'm looking at this as one the biggest choke jobs of all time in the NCAA's. That was just brutal.

I've said it before, their permanent motto needs to be something like: NCSU Wolfpack-We find a way to lose.

Do their shirts say "The Wolfpack Way?" Maybe my suggested motto above really does mean that.:o

fisheyes
03-20-2014, 09:51 PM
There should be a triple bonus. After 15 fouls in the half, you get three free throws.

I thought the exact same thing. That was ugly.

devildeac
03-20-2014, 09:52 PM
My eyes are bleeding from watching NCSU the last 7-8 minutes of regulation and so far in OT. Truly awful performance. Sad.

Furniture
03-20-2014, 09:53 PM
How many games would Duke have lost this year as a result though?

Maybe you are not watching the game. No way Duke has lost a game playing like this.
I feel sorry for my State friends.

Mabdul Doobakus
03-20-2014, 09:54 PM
The players on NC State appear to have no energy in this OT. Maybe because they played two nights ago...that certainly can't help. But not a lot of effort being put forth.

duke4ever19
03-20-2014, 09:54 PM
Maybe you are not watching the game. No way Duke has lost a game playing like this.
I feel sorry for my State friends.

Wow. Warren steps over the free throw line before it hits the rim. Total mental breakdown by State.

Edit#1: and of course, Warren steals the ball and gets a clutch and-1 with a chance to tie. I can't figure this game out.

Edit#2: ...and promptly misses the free throw.

Edit#3: and volunteers to foul himself out of the game.

First blemish on my bracket. Stupid State. :(

Furniture
03-20-2014, 10:00 PM
ACC player of the year?

Duke79UNLV77
03-20-2014, 10:01 PM
Sure could have used him on offense. What a colossal choke job.

Furniture
03-20-2014, 10:01 PM
Gosh do I feel for those kids. That's sad!

ice-9
03-20-2014, 10:01 PM
Wow. Warren steps over the free throw line before it hits the rim. Total mental breakdown by State.

Edit#1: and of course, Warren steals the ball and gets a clutch and-1 with a chance to tie. I can't figure this game out.

Edit#2: ...and promptly misses the free throw.

Edit#3: and volunteers to foul himself out of the game.


The dude is clearly running on fumes...

Dr. Rosenrosen
03-20-2014, 10:02 PM
Wow. Epic fail.

kshepinthehouse
03-20-2014, 10:03 PM
Unbelievable. Only Gottfried could lose a game like that. Why would you let tj warren foul out? If you're going to foul out the 12th man from the bench in to foul and put warren back in on offense

arnie
03-20-2014, 10:03 PM
The dude is clearly running on fumes...

What a huge choke by State. I'd be dying if Duke did that.

DU82
03-20-2014, 10:03 PM
What a huge choke by State. I'd be dying if Duke did that.

I'm sure I'll hear this at work tomorrow: It's all the refs fault for calling all those fouls.