Malaysia Plane Disappearance

[SoCalDukeFan]

This story is obviously tragic but very mysterious to me.

Hard for me to understand why at this date they have no evidence of the plane's location.

Anyone remember anything similar?

Thanks
SoCal

[PSurprise]

I think I remember hearing about it a few yeas ago, usually on ABC on Sunday evenings at 9pm.

But in all seriousness, very mysterious and tragic. I hope they find some answers soon. The longer it takes the more evidence will disappear. I feel very bad for the families of those on board

[ncexnyc]

Aside from Oceanic Flight 815, in real life there is the Air France Flight 447, back in 2009. The flight was from Rio to Paris and it took them nearly 2 years to find the wreckage.

Ocean depth and current have a lot to due with finding wreckage.

[Jim3k]

This plane was a 777 going from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing. The distance between those cities is about 2700 miles. A 777's range is between 5500 and 9200 miles, depending on how it is configured. It is also one of the safest and most reliable of today's commercial jetliners and had just passed a routine airworthiness test.

According to the early news reports and confirmed by later ones, the plane, about 1½ hours after takeoff, began to turn west off its NNE course and they are now searching some 350 miles to the west which would be over the Andaman Sea, aiming toward the Bay of Bengal.

First of all, that is a huge area. Second, if the plane can disappear--e.g., by turning its transponder off or re-identifying itself--couldn't it have flown somewhere and landed unnoticed? If so, where could such a place be? The plane's range could possibly take it all the way to southern Iran. To go that direction, though, it would have had to fly over Indian, Pakistani and Afghan airspace. I would think at least one of their air defense systems would have noticed. Going NWN takes it into remote territory without much in the way of lengthy runways , over or beyond the Himalayas. That's unlikely, even if there was some sort of hijacking. Third, the now-identified Iranians using the stolen passports don't seem to be so important as to warrant stealing 239 people to get them back.

Therefore...despite some chance that this plane was hijacked, it seems to be an unlikely scenario. Still, I'd prefer that to the loss of 239 lives.

But I need to get on with my screenplay. So I'll leave it there...

[DukieInKansas]

Although it was a long time ago, I know from personal experience that Pakistan will notice a plane flying in their air space without permission. After a brief landing and refueling in Karachi, with the appropriate landing fees paid, we went on our way.

[hurleyfor3]

Hard for me to understand why at this date they have no evidence of the plane's location.

Anyone remember anything similar?

KAL 007 comes to mind, although the CCCP was obstructing in that case.

[OldPhiKap]

Although it was a long time ago, I know from personal experience that Pakistan will notice a plane flying in their air space without permission. After a brief landing and refueling in Karachi, with the appropriate landing fees paid, we went on our way.

So DinK is either Special Ops, or a smuggler. Either way, I am concerned. And impressed by her top-notch gravy.

This is a really strange story, for sure. IF the plane turned off its transponder, one might assume it was hijacked (either by an outsider or a pilot). But then crashing makes no sense. Where could it land without news getting out (I.e. with the agreement of the State) and why?

How solid is the info that the plane turned west? My gut says this is wrong info because it makes no sense. But we wait to see. . . .

[Newton_14]

Aside from Oceanic Flight 815, in real life there is the Air France Flight 447, back in 2009. The flight was from Rio to Paris and it took them nearly 2 years to find the wreckage.

Ocean depth and current have a lot to due with finding wreckage.
I remember that one well, but I thought it was quickly assumed that it went down in the ocean and thought they found debris in the ocean within a couple of days. It took 2 years to find the black box, but didn't they find debris floating early on?

This one is bizarre.

Edit: From Wiki: While Brazilian Navy (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/wiki/Brazilian_Navy) authorities were able to locate the first major wreckage within five days of the accident, initial investigation was hampered because the aircraft's black boxes (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/wiki/Black_box_(transportation)) were not recovered from the ocean floor (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/wiki/Ocean_floor) until May 2011, nearly two years later

[Jim3k]

From an AP story in the SF Chron (http://www.sfgate.com/news/crime/article/Malaysia-says-not-sure-which-way-jet-was-headed-5305648.php).

Looks like the 777 was headed northerly over the Gulf of Thailand when it seemed to change course. They are now saying that radar contact was lost less than an hour into the flight. That narrows the search area considerably. The Malaysian officials are not certain what direction it took, not even which way it turned, though the BBC has reported it was west (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26527439), quoting the military. (With a map.) The civilian and military authorities are in disagreement with respect to the meaning of the radar traces each sees. The aircraft may have come back southwesterly all the way over the Malay peninsula into the Malaccan Strait. Or maybe the course change was due to a catastrophe.

They say they don't know which side of the peninsula is the most likely crash area, but I'd bet the plane went down long before it got back to the peninsula if that was where it was going. Assuming it had flown for an hour, it would be at least 300 miles from Maylasian land. That's a long way back. At least one flight expert asserts that the plane was beyond primary radar range (http://www.livescience.com/44012-malaysian-airlines-mystery-radar-tracking.html) of 200 miles when whatever happened, happened. But the secondary radar signal, the transponder, stopped as well. The plane went silent before the next radio checkpoint.

[Newton_14]

From an AP story in the SF Chron (http://www.sfgate.com/news/crime/article/Malaysia-says-not-sure-which-way-jet-was-headed-5305648.php).

Looks like the 777 was headed northerly over the Gulf of Thailand when it seemed to change course. They are now saying that radar contact was lost less than an hour into the flight. That narrows the search area considerably. The Malaysian officials are not certain what direction it took, not even which way it turned, though the BBC has reported it was west (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26527439), quoting the military. (With a map.) The civilian and military authorities are in disagreement with respect to the meaning of the radar traces each sees. The aircraft may have come back southwesterly all the way over the Malay peninsula into the Malaccan Strait. Or maybe the course change was due to a catastrophe.

They say they don't know which side of the peninsula is the most likely crash area, but I'd bet the plane went down long before it got back to the peninsula if that was where it was going. Assuming it had flown for an hour, it would be at least 300 miles from Maylasian land. That's a long way back. At least one flight expert asserts that the plane was beyond primary radar range (http://www.livescience.com/44012-malaysian-airlines-mystery-radar-tracking.html) of 200 miles when whatever happened, happened. But the secondary radar signal, the transponder, stopped as well. The plane went silent before the next radio checkpoint.

They had actually doubled the size of the search area earlier today, but the Chinese announced this evening they believe they have located the debris field by reviewing satellite photo's taken one day after the crash. The debris found on the images is only 140 miles to the north of the trac of the flight and from the point where they lost contact. This would suggest the plane never veered off course and never turned back. Still does not explain the transponder suddenly turning off. I read today that cannot happen unless someone turns it off manually or if the plane suddenly loses all power. I had read a really good article at lunch today on CNN (their coverage on events like this is just outstanding) that offered up 4 possibilities. This has been one of the most fascinating plane crashes ever in terms of trying to figure out what happened. Before I read the new CNN article a few minutes ago, the conspiracy theorist in me was holding out hope this was a hijacking and the plane landed somewhere will everyone still alive.

With the new images, it will likely turn out that it went down very close to where they lost radar contact in some kind of tragedy. The water is only 200 feet deep in the area of the possible debris field so hopefully they can find them tomorrow and give these families closure.

[hurleyfor3]

This has been one of the most fascinating plane crashes ever in terms of trying to figure out what happened. Before I read the new CNN article a few minutes ago, the conspiracy theorist in me was holding out hope this was a hijacking and the plane landed somewhere will everyone still alive.

The USAir flight that crashed near Pittsburgh in 1994 took some four years to investigate. In the process they managed to explain two or three other unsolved 737 crashes. It was an issue involving suddenly jerking the rudder control and having it go the wrong way.

[moonpie23]

now there are stories of relatives calling passenger's cell phones and they were ringing....some appeared to be answered and then hung up...


http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/missing-malaysia-airlines-flight-mh370-passengers-mobile-phones-ring-not-answered-1439560

[77devil]

WSJ reporting that engine telemetry transmitted directly to Rolls-Royce indicate that the engines continued to operate for 4 hours but is being disputed by Malaysian officials. On what real basis could they disagree? Lots of politics setting in as the Chinese satellite photos are being questioned by many sides as well. The mystery continues..

[Reisen]

WSJ reporting that engine telemetry transmitted directly to Rolls-Royce indicate that the engines continued to operate for 4 hours

The Bond villain flying around in a giant solar-powered, stealth jumbo jet (with a nose that opens to swallow other jets in mid-air) is getting ready to drop one of his henchmen into a tank of sharks for that mistake...

[OldPhiKap]

The Bond villain flying around in a giant solar-powered, stealth jumbo jet (with a nose that opens to swallow other jets in mid-air) is getting ready to drop one of his henchmen into a tank of sharks for that mistake...

Could be SPECTRE. Could be KAOS. Could be Dr. Evil.

Strange story. Prayers for the families and those involved.

[Jarhead]

We can speculate on many scenarios that could have happened. I tried, but nothing made any sense. Then I read that the jet engines had continued to send telemetry to Rolls Royce for four hours. That immediately brought to mind the incident that killed pro golfer Payne Stewart fourteen and a half years ago. He was a passenger on a Lear Jet with 3 friends flying from Orlando to Dallas. At some point while still over Florida their aircraft lost ground contact, and flew for four hours, crashing in North Dakota. Initially, the flight was at 39,000 feet on automatic pilot. At some point, sudden decompression of the aircraft killed the flight crew and passengers. Wikipedia tells the whole story here (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_South_Dakota_Learjet_crash).

The similarities of the two incidents easily lead to the speculation that the same thing happened in both cases. The major difference is that the airspace over the US has pretty good radar coverage, and Air Force and Air National Guard along the flight path of the Lear Jet. I feel that the Rolls Royce telemetry, if real, indicates the outcome. What remains to be discovered is the flight azimuth of the Malaysian jet.

[JohnGalt]

The similarities of the two incidents easily lead to the speculation that the same thing happened in both cases. The major difference is that the airspace over the US has pretty good radar coverage, and Air Force and Air National Guard along the flight path of the Lear Jet. I feel that the Rolls Royce telemetry, if real, indicates the outcome. What remains to be discovered is the flight azimuth of the Malaysian jet.

This is an interesting theory. But wouldn't the flight still have been picked up on radar at whichever landmass it crossed? And if the crew/passengers was/were incapacitated due to hypoxia, what would make the plane make a sudden course deviation in the Andaman? In Payne's case, the plane continued along on autopilot until it ran out of fuel. What would have made the Malaysian jet veer off course so drastically without human intervention? And there's still the question of the transponder. This is a really bizarre case and I really feel for the families who have loved ones missing. Not knowing anything must be excruciating.

[nocilla]

This is an interesting theory. But wouldn't the flight still have been picked up on radar at whichever landmass it crossed? And if the crew/passengers was/were incapacitated due to hypoxia, what would make the plane make a sudden course deviation in the Andaman? In Payne's case, the plane continued along on autopilot until it ran out of fuel. What would have made the Malaysian jet veer off course so drastically without human intervention? And there's still the question of the transponder. This is a really bizarre case and I really feel for the families who have loved ones missing. Not knowing anything must be excruciating.

Maybe this jet was not on autopilot? That wouldn't effect the transponder though.

[Acymetric]

Maybe this jet was not on autopilot? That wouldn't effect the transponder though.

But without autopilot it couldn't have run for four hours with a dead pilot right?

[Newton_14]

We can speculate on many scenarios that could have happened. I tried, but nothing made any sense. Then I read that the jet engines had continued to send telemetry to Rolls Royce for four hours. That immediately brought to mind the incident that killed pro golfer Payne Stewart fourteen and a half years ago. He was a passenger on a Lear Jet with 3 friends flying from Orlando to Dallas. At some point while still over Florida their aircraft lost ground contact, and flew for four hours, crashing in North Dakota. Initially, the flight was at 39,000 feet on automatic pilot. At some point, sudden decompression of the aircraft killed the flight crew and passengers. Wikipedia tells the whole story here (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_South_Dakota_Learjet_crash).

The similarities of the two incidents easily lead to the speculation that the same thing happened in both cases. The major difference is that the airspace over the US has pretty good radar coverage, and Air Force and Air National Guard along the flight path of the Lear Jet. I feel that the Rolls Royce telemetry, if real, indicates the outcome. What remains to be discovered is the flight azimuth of the Malaysian jet.

The problem with that theory is the radar being lost as others have mentioned, but also it has to be discounted due to the transponder being turned off manually. Today has been a fascinating day on several fronts. You have the reports of the plane flying on for hours after radar was lost and transponder was turned off, to go with yesterday's military radar report of seeing the plane on their radar heading the other way hours after contact was lost. There is also a report that officials believe the plane made it all the way to the Indian Ocean. The most interesting thing though is a new report today that the planes data reporting system was manually turned off at 1:07 AM, and the transponder was manually turned off 14 minutes later at 1:21 AM. This is started to swing back toward possiblle terrorist hijacking. If it means those 239 people are still alive and being held at some remote location, that still beats all of them being dead at the bottom of the Ocean. There are also reports that officials are investigating whether or not the plane was hijacked with the intention of using it as a missile ala 9-11. At this point I don't think they can rule out any of those scenarios and bad thing is the search area has now become very large.

With that they have turned to the public for help. There is a website people can go to and look at satellite images to try to find wreckage or the plane itself. It's called Tomnod. I am actually on there now taking a look at images. Here is the link if anyone is interested in helping in the search: Tomnod (http://www.tomnod.com/nod/challenge/#malaysiaairsar2014/map/318077)

[JasonEvans]

No updates in this thread in a few days so I thought I would chime in with the latest...

Malay authorities seem to now think that the plane was intentionally diverted and that something criminal was going on. There seems a lot of speculation that the pilot and/or co-pilot may have been part of some plot.

The search area is ridiculously large... from Australia to Khazakstan. They may never find anything unless someone wants them to find something.

http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/73631000/gif/_73631595_malaysian_airliner_search_v1_976map.gif

-Jason "I suspect that one of of the passengers is typing 4 8 15 16 23 42 into a computer every 108 minutes" Evans

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I was going to comment that perhaps this thread is mis-titled.

[blazindw]

I was going to comment that perhaps this thread is mis-titled.

Title has been changed until we find out what happened. This is really one of the great mysteries of my life. I never could imagine that in 2014 a plane could disappear without anyone really knowing what happened to it.

[Jim3k]

WaPo story headlines:

Malaysia backtracks on satellite data evidence; unsure when system went offline (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/malaysia-u-turns-on-satellite-data-evidence-unsure-when-system-went-off-line/2014/03/17/e93be726-add5-11e3-96dc-d6ea14c099f9_story.html?tid=pm_pop)

And now the search has gone south to the Southern Indian Ocean, west of Perth, Australia.

Wild goose chase, now.

[Jim3k]

Wild goose chase, Jim? What about this wild theory: MH370 hid itself behind Singapore Air 68 on its way to Spain, crossing India, Pakistan and Afghanistan unnoticed. Then spun off into a landing zone in Xingjian province, Kyrgyzstan, or Turkmenistan.

This pilot seems to have it all figured out. (http://keithledgerwood.tumblr.com/post/79838944823/did-malaysian-airlines-370-disappear-using-sia68-sq68) Or does he?

Certainly worthy of my unwritten screenplay.

But it's all moot because Courtney Love has found the crash site (http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/courtney-love-malaysian-airlines-flight).

What?? You're not satisfied with these explanations?


h/t SF Chron for the Ledgerwood blog theory. h/t to Courtney Love for just being her.

[cspan37421]

If it went in the water, he might be the right guy to find it.

Something tells me it didn't end up in the water though. If the pilots (or whoever was "I'm the captain now") wanted to commit suicide, they wouldn't have bothered to take all the time and go to all the trouble they apparently did to conceal what was going on. It would not surprise me to find out that plane has a new owner, probably someone not very friendly to the West.

[OldPhiKap]

It would not surprise me to find out that plane has a new owner, probably someone not very friendly to the West.

Where would you fly it, though?

And is there any country that cannot simply buy one if they have the money? (Cheaper than hijacking one in such an elaborate manner, if that is what happened). This is not a military craft.

If the plane did not crash, it would seem that we would have heard from someone. Either someone claiming responsibility, someone wanting ransom, etc. Unless some passenger is a super-duper person with some incredible secret or ability that could only be obtained by an abduction -- but that gets into heavy fiction land (and it would be done in lieu of simpler abduction chances, no doubt).

I would like to think the plane landed and that everyone is alive. Hard to fathom the set of circumstances that would allow for that result, however. And absent a landing in somewhere like a military base in North Korea, it is hard to see how it would happen without some leak of information.

[fisheyes]

Here is another thought...

http://www.businessinsider.com/malaysia-plane-fire-2014-3

Interesting...

Who knows?

[hurleyfor3]

If the plane did not crash, it would seem that we would have heard from someone. Either someone claiming responsibility, someone wanting ransom, etc. Unless some passenger is a super-duper person with some incredible secret or ability that could only be obtained by an abduction -- but that gets into heavy fiction land (and it would be done in lieu of simpler abduction chances, no doubt).

And what does anyone have against Malaysia? They're Muslim sympathizers if anything, but not as extreme as what you have in Indonesia or the Middle East. Why not a Western airline running one of its Asian routes.

[cspan37421]

Where would you fly it, though?

And is there any country that cannot simply buy one if they have the money? (Cheaper than hijacking one in such an elaborate manner, if that is what happened). This is not a military craft.

If the plane did not crash, it would seem that we would have heard from someone.

The planes that were flown into the WTC towers were not military craft either. Could it not be used to deliver a dirty bomb?
I wasn't referring to a nation-state wanting a 777.

Just read the post that speculated a fire - say from a blown tire. Interesting. That made me wonder - what about these lithium batteries which have caused some problems for Boeing? A quick search suggests that such problems were on the 787, not the 777. But who knows, maybe it'll be a first.

[JasonEvans]

The Business Insider smoking fire/tire explanation is far and away the most plausible one I have read on this whole thing. It fits everything so logically. I was actually hoping for something like a hijacking which would mean the people on board were safe (relatively) but there has been such a passage of time at this point, I cannot imagine that is the case.

-Jason "I do so wish someone could have gotten a message out so we would have a little more to go on" Evans

[Jim3k]

Here is another thought...

http://www.businessinsider.com/malaysia-plane-fire-2014-3

Interesting...

Who knows?

Doggone it! A plausible explanation... Who wants that? :rolleyes:

Plus, it gives them a place to search. How mundane. Wild goose chases and conspiracy theories are a lot more fun.

[cato]

Doggone it! A plausible explanation... Who wants that? :rolleyes:

Plus, it gives them a place to search. How mundane. Wild goose chases and conspiracy theories are a lot more fun.

Here's the thing: without knowing a lot of very specific technical stuff about the plane in question, how can we say if this is any more or less plausible than any other theory?

I would be just as dumbstruck to find out that a fire could divert and then destroy a plan without allowing for a single indication of distress (and, in fact, concealing the location and direction of the plane), as I would be to learn that someone could do this intentionally.

[77devil]

Doggone it! A plausible explanation... Who wants that? :rolleyes:

Plus, it gives them a place to search. How mundane. Wild goose chases and conspiracy theories are a lot more fun.

Except that several "experts" have noted that the ACARS system would have transmitted data immediately with any abnormality such as smoke or fire. Who can be sure?

[Jim3k]

More detail from Chris Goodfellow (beyond his quotes in the Business Insider article) writing for Wired (http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/).

He explains pretty well why the ACARS and transponder systems may have gone down without the pilots being aware.


But things could have been in the process of going wrong, unknown to the pilots.

Evidently the ACARS went inoperative some time before. Disabling the ACARS is not easy, as pointed out. This leads me to believe more in an electrical problem or an electrical fire than a manual shutdown. I suggest the pilots probably were not aware ACARS was not transmitting.



The whole thing is worth a read.

[tommy]

The Business Insider smoking fire/tire explanation is far and away the most plausible one I have read on this whole thing. It fits everything so logically. I was actually hoping for something like a hijacking which would mean the people on board were safe (relatively) but there has been such a passage of time at this point, I cannot imagine that is the case.

-Jason "I do so wish someone could have gotten a message out so we would have a little more to go on" Evans

I agree that the theory makes perfect sense, except when I read today that "sources" (and who knows how reliable they are in something like this) are stating that the plane's abrupt change of course took place 12 minutes before the pilot's seemingly routine verbal "good night" signoff. If true, that throws a wrench into the whole thing.

[OldPhiKap]

I agree that the theory makes perfect sense, except when I read today that "sources" (and who knows how reliable they are in something like this) are stating that the plane's abrupt change of course took place 12 minutes before the pilot's seemingly routine verbal "good night" signoff. If true, that throws a wrench into the whole thing.

Tommy/all: I thought I heard that the turn was after, not before. Did I hear that wrong? (Very likely)

[77devil]

Tommy/all: I thought I heard that the turn was after, not before. Did I hear that wrong? (Very likely)

My understanding is the 12 minutes refers to when the course change was programmed into the flight management system. Initially it was reported as being at least 12 minutes before in that the time of data entry could not be determined precisely, but only as being before a routine, automatic data transmission. I believe the actual turn was executed after the radio sign off.

[alteran]

My understanding is the 12 minutes refers to when the course change was programmed into the flight management system. Initially it was reported as being at least 12 minutes before in that the time of data entry could not be determined precisely, but only as being before a routine, automatic data transmission. I believe the actual turn was executed after the radio sign off.

If true, that's pretty damming.

Programming the complete course change, then broadcasting, "all is well, good night," then executing the course change and going silent... it seems to make the whole thing obviously deliberate.

Doesn't help find the plane, though.

[OldPhiKap]

If true, that's pretty damming.

Programming the complete course change, then broadcasting, "all is well, good night," then executing the course change and going silent... it seems to make the whole thing obviously deliberate.

Doesn't help find the plane, though.

But again, my understanding is that it is not unusual (perhaps SOP) to program in a back-up to the nearest airport in case of emergency. Relying on a CNN piece on this last night. So it could have been programmed to the nearest airport in case of emergency; emergency happened and someone hit the button to go towards the airport; then everyone blacked out and it ran on that course until out of fuel on autopilot (or failed and crashed en route).

[gus]

But again, my understanding is that it is not unusual (perhaps SOP) to program in a back-up to the nearest airport in case of emergency. Relying on a CNN piece on this last night. So it could have been programmed to the nearest airport in case of emergency; emergency happened and someone hit the button to go towards the airport; then everyone blacked out and it ran on that course until out of fuel on autopilot (or failed and crashed en route).

Routinely rogramming in a flight diversion on the off chance you as the pilot are incapacitated, but not so incapacitated that you're able to wake up and land the plane? I'm not a pilot, but that seems rather unlikely.

the fire theory is compelling, but has a few flaws (http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/03/18/mh370_disappearance_chris_goodfellow_s_theory_abou t_a_fire_and_langkawi.html)

eg:

Goodfellow’s account is emotionally compelling, and it is based on some of the most important facts that have been established so far. And it is simple—to a fault. Take other major findings of the investigation into account, and Goodfellow’s theory falls apart. For one thing, while it’s true that MH370 did turn toward Langkawi and wound up overflying it, whoever was at the controls continued to maneuver after that point as well, turning sharply right at VAMPI waypoint, then left again at GIVAL. Such vigorous navigating would have been impossible for unconscious men.

[InSpades]

Reporting that they found debris in the Indian Ocean near Australia. They are on their way to get a closer look... would seem consistent w/ the turn to the west.

This story is pretty fascinating to me. Of course it is a great tragedy as well (we don't know the outcome but very likely that all on board were lost) but the fact that we could *lose* a plane for this long is amazing. For all of our technology... we can just lose an airplane?! Crazy.

[Jim3k]

Reporting that they found debris in the Indian Ocean near Australia. They are on their way to get a closer look... would seem consistent w/ the turn to the west.

This story is pretty fascinating to me. Of course it is a great tragedy as well (we don't know the outcome but very likely that all on board were lost) but the fact that we could *lose* a plane for this long is amazing. For all of our technology... we can just lose an airplane?! Crazy.


Here's a WAPO map (http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/satellite-locates-malaysian-flight-370-still-flying-seven-hours-after-takeoff/2014/03/15/96627a24-ac86-11e3-a06a-e3230a43d6cb_graphic.html) showing the arc and the area west of Australia where the debris seems to have been spotted. To say it is off the charts is a near-literal truth. Scroll to second map.

[DukeUsul]

What I find amazing is that the piece of debris is estimated to be 24 meters. That's big! Like the size of a plane's wing. Or a stray shipping container that fell off a boat.

[alteran]

What I find amazing is that the piece of debris is estimated to be 24 meters. That's big! Like the size of a plane's wing. Or a stray shipping container that fell off a boat.

That's an awful huge piece of aircraft to survive. I like your lost shipping container theory better. There's an awful lot of stuff floating around in the ocean.

[DukeUsul]

I read the lost shipping container theory on a story about it, so I won't claim it's mine. But I'm still not sure shipping containers are that big. (wikipedia tells me they're 40ft long as a standard, which is about half of that 24 meters. The can go up to 17 meters, which seems closer to the mark).

But still - how much junk of that size is floating around in the oceans? And not sinking. I literally can't even estimate, the scale is just a bit too much to imagine.

[Acymetric]

I read the lost shipping container theory on a story about it, so I won't claim it's mine. But I'm still not sure shipping containers are that big. (wikipedia tells me they're 40ft long as a standard, which is about half of that 24 meters. The can go up to 17 meters, which seems closer to the mark).

But still - how much junk of that size is floating around in the oceans? And not sinking. I literally can't even estimate, the scale is just a bit too much to imagine.

I work with shipping containers pretty regularly, and there's pretty much no way that's what it is. Of course, people do ocean freight larger equipment when necessary (generally on a "flat rack" because I know you were dying to find out), but I doubt that would explain it either. If someone is paying the cash to put something that big on a boat they would probably already be aware that it wasn't on the boat anymore.

[77devil]

I work with shipping containers pretty regularly, and there's pretty much no way that's what it is. Of course, people do ocean freight larger equipment when necessary (generally on a "flat rack" because I know you were dying to find out), but I doubt that would explain it either. If someone is paying the cash to put something that big on a boat they would probably already be aware that it wasn't on the boat anymore.

When I first moved overseas back in the day, I was told that containers were lost overboard in rough seas from time to time, even dumped to stabilize the ship. I bought extra insurance.

[JohnGalt]

I read the lost shipping container theory on a story about it, so I won't claim it's mine. But I'm still not sure shipping containers are that big. (wikipedia tells me they're 40ft long as a standard, which is about half of that 24 meters. The can go up to 17 meters, which seems closer to the mark).

But still - how much junk of that size is floating around in the oceans? And not sinking. I literally can't even estimate, the scale is just a bit too much to imagine.

TEU - Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit - is generally the term used for measuring the size of containerships. You'll see a vessel labelled as, for example, "4500 TEU," meaning it can carry 4,500 20Lx8Wx8.5H containers. Regardless, as DukeUsul mentions, the "FEU" or Forty-foot Equivalent Unit has become the most commonly carried container on the planet due to the gradual increasing of size of containerships, increased global demand for goods, more efficient carrying capacity, etc...over the last several decades. Some other common containers sizes are 45', 48', and 53', but I've never heard of a 55' which would be right around 17m. That doesn't mean it doesn't exist, but in my opinion it would sort of a be an oddball. I worked for a time on the APL China (4800 TEU) and the Chief Mate used to always complain about the 48' and [especially] 53' containers because there were only a few places they fit on the ship so his stowage plans became increasingly limited depending on how many were loaded.

[wavedukefan70s]

TEU - Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit - is generally the term used for measuring the size of containerships. You'll see a vessel labelled as, for example, "4500 TEU," meaning it can carry 4,500 20Lx8Wx8.5H containers. Regardless, as DukeUsul mentions, the "FEU" or Forty-foot Equivalent Unit has become the most commonly carried container on the planet due to the gradual increasing of size of containerships, increased global demand for goods, more efficient carrying capacity, etc...over the last several decades. Some other common containers sizes are 45', 48', and 53', but I've never heard of a 55' which would be right around 17m. That doesn't mean it doesn't exist, but in my opinion it would sort of a be an oddball. I worked for a time on the APL China (4800 TEU) and the Chief Mate used to always complain about the 48' and [especially] 53' containers because there were only a few places they fit on the ship so his stowage plans became increasingly limited depending on how many were loaded.

I was going to point out the same thing.even most of the newer ships being built aren't outfitted for sizable quantities of anything larger than 45 footers .i have seen one 60 ft custom made container.
Just curious if you worked in the industry locally ?

[DUKIECB]

News coming from the press conference this morning indicating that British satellite data conclusively shows that the flight ended in the southern Indian Ocean. Funny that they haven't released any of the data that proves this. I have no idea how they can definitively determine this.

Also, aircraft in the area have for the first time spotted debris believed to be part of the aircraft.

What is the chance of them ever finding the data recorder? Seems to me almost zero since the plane could be anywhere in the Indian ocean. We may never fully understand just what went on inside that cockpit.

[gus]

Routinely rogramming in a flight diversion on the off chance you as the pilot are incapacitated, but not so incapacitated that you're able to wake up and land the plane? I'm not a pilot, but that seems rather unlikely.

the fire theory is compelling, but has a few flaws (http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/03/18/mh370_disappearance_chris_goodfellow_s_theory_abou t_a_fire_and_langkawi.html)

eg:

The latest news suggests that this rebuttal is flawed.

[OldPhiKap]

The biggest problem with the fire theory, as I understand it, is that a plane normally crashes within something like 17 minutes of a major fire -- not hours later when it runs out of gas.

And in terms of finding the transponder, there is a limited amount of time that it will "ping" before running out of power. The Malasian "response" at the beginning of this has severely eroded the time left to find it (again, per my incomplete understanding).

[Clay Feet POF]

I need some help of clarifications of some Facts/Statements that I have muddled in my head.

First, did the "All Right Good Night" message come 12 minutes after the sharp left turn?

Second did the descent from 23,000 ft to 12,000 (Approx 5 minutes) take place 2 minutes after the turn or the message?

Third I assume it was after the message, otherwise if they had trouble 2 minutes After the turn they still had the ability to communicate because of the All Right message later.

Fourth what’s the thinking of the 12 minute early left turn if no malfunction existed and
they still had the ability to communicate 12 minutes later?


Note: Any update on the Luke Kennard commit?

[alteran]

This is a response to "Muddled" above, I can't seem to get the quote feature to work on that post.

Your first point: my understanding is that the message preceded the turn. In other words, they did NOT tip a conscious decision to deliberately take the plane at this point. At different points the Malaysian authorities and/or the media reported differently, but the consensus now is that the broadcast came before the plane altered course.

The other stuff I'm not so sure about, but at least some of it seems to hinge on the turn coming after the "good night" message.

[Bob Green]

News coming from the press conference this morning indicating that British satellite data conclusively shows that the flight ended in the southern Indian Ocean. Funny that they haven't released any of the data that proves this. I have no idea how they can definitively determine this.

It depends upon what data the plane was automatically uplinking to the satellite. Navigation data limited to course and speed could be used to reconstruct the flight path via dead reckoning.

[Newton_14]

News coming from the press conference this morning indicating that British satellite data conclusively shows that the flight ended in the southern Indian Ocean. Funny that they haven't released any of the data that proves this. I have no idea how they can definitively determine this.

Also, aircraft in the area have for the first time spotted debris believed to be part of the aircraft.

What is the chance of them ever finding the data recorder? Seems to me almost zero since the plane could be anywhere in the Indian ocean. We may never fully understand just what went on inside that cockpit.

I thought the same thing when I read this news this morning. How can they possibly know? With all respect to the souls and their families, and I have held out hope since the beginning that this was a deliberate act, the plane landed somewhere, and the people on it are alive, this has been a fascinating event. None of the theories make perfect sense. If mechanical, 1. why did it take so long to crash? 2, why the strange flight path (it was reported that radar sites were purposely avoided suggesting humans flying the plane)? 3.Unless incompacitated, why wouldnt the crew fly toward the nearest airport and attempt to land? 4. If pilots were incompacitated, how did the plane fly the mysterious route and remain in the air until the fuel ran out??

If intentional human act then 1. Why fly the plane to a remote place in the ocean just to crash it?

My thoughts since learning of the communications being turned off, and the programming in of the flight path change, has been that the plane landed somewhere in the Middle East and was intended to be used in a 9-11 type attack. The photos of the debris have me doubting this. For both the mystery itself and for the lives lost, I continue to hold out hope they are offbase and the plane did not crash in the Indian Ocean or anywhere else.

[cato]

It depends upon what data the plane was automatically uplinking to the satellite. Navigation data limited to course and speed could be used to reconstruct the flight path via dead reckoning.

My (admittedly poor) understanding is that they used minute changes in frequency to determine speed. I believe they were also able to determine position somehow (time between pings?).

I trust that the engineers doing this work know what they are doing -- but I don't have any stake in this. I imagine it is very hard for the family members to accept that the last findings are definitive. Somewhere, they must be holding out hope that the passengers and crew are still alive.

[alteran]

My (admittedly poor) understanding is that they used minute changes in frequency to determine speed. I believe they were also able to determine position somehow (time between pings?).

I trust that the engineers doing this work know what they are doing -- but I don't have any stake in this. I imagine it is very hard for the family members to accept that the last findings are definitive. Somewhere, they must be holding out hope that the passengers and crew are still alive.


I've been wondering how they're so absolutely sure they know the plane was there, since all they have are a few scant images in satellite photos of debris that they haven't been able to find in ships or planes.

It turns out it wasn't really the images that sold them. They've analyzed the satellite pings from the flight for the Doppler effect (http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/24/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-satellite-tracking/index.html?hpt=hp_t1). That's just crazy-- but very, very impressive. These pings seem pretty conclusive that the plane last pinged from the isolated area of the Indian Ocean they've been searching.

I've got no cogent theory as to how the plane ended up there.

[Mal]

I've been wondering how they're so absolutely sure they know the plane was there, since all they have are a few scant images in satellite photos of debris that they haven't been able to find in ships or planes.

It turns out it wasn't really the images that sold them. They've analyzed the satellite pings from the flight for the Doppler effect (http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/24/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-satellite-tracking/index.html?hpt=hp_t1). That's just crazy-- but very, very impressive. These pings seem pretty conclusive that the plane last pinged from the isolated area of the Indian Ocean they've been searching.

I've got no cogent theory as to how the plane ended up there.

Yeah, that's pretty amazing stuff. Hooray for high school Physics.

Nonetheless, I'm sort of of the mind that, even prior to running calculations using the Doppler effect, authorities in various locations were pretty sure they had the right spot. Call me a conspiracy theorist, but given the ability of Google Maps to show me clearly eating a peanut butter and jelly sandwich in my own backyard, I have a hard time believing the grainy bits of satellite imagery we've been privy to on TV are the highest quality stuff in existence. The Australian PM said nearly a week ago that they had "credible evidence" that they'd located some relevant debris, and I tend to think the images CNN was putting up at that point were pretty far from credible evidence of anything other than the fact that there was an object floating somewhere in the Indian ocean. NSA could very well have significantly better views of what's out there, but they're not going to be sharing them with a media outlet due to national security reasons. Perhaps we just don't have anything in orbit that could be diverted to get great images of that portion of the globe, though. I don't know. I am not a scientist.

[Bob Green]

Call me a conspiracy theorist, but given the ability of Google Maps to show me clearly eating a peanut butter and jelly sandwich in my own backyard, I have a hard time believing the grainy bits of satellite imagery we've been privy to on TV are the highest quality stuff in existence.

No way the satellite imagery shown on TV is the highest quality stuff in existence. Anyone who has read a Tom Clancy novel knows better.

[-jk]

No way the satellite imagery shown on TV is the highest quality stuff in existence. Anyone who has read a Tom Clancy novel knows better.

True. But you have to know exactly where you want to look. It's sort of like a telescope.

-jk

[DukeUsul]

True. But you have to know exactly where you want to look. It's sort of like a telescope.

-jk

Right. Our highest-res satellites look at the earth like looking down through a really long straw. The ones that cover large areas don't have high enough resolution to spot things.

Also note that the high-res satellites are all set up to look at land. No one wants high-res images of a big ocean of water. Depending on their orbit it may be impossible or difficult (expensive in fuel) to get these birds to go fly over a big empty ocean.

[alteran]

Call me a conspiracy theorist, but given the ability of Google Maps to show me clearly eating a peanut butter and jelly sandwich in my own backyard, I have a hard time believing the grainy bits of satellite imagery we've been privy to on TV are the highest quality stuff in existence.

I see your point, but Google's hi-res "satellite" imagery is from planes.

I'm not saying the military doesn't have stuff that's pretty good, but it's not commercially pervasive.

[alteran]

Not confirmed yet, but possibly the black box has been found (http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2014/04/07/mh370_search_australian_naval_ship_detects_underwa ter_signal_that_could.html).

[Clay Feet POF]

Not confirmed yet, but possibly the black box has been found (http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2014/04/07/mh370_search_australian_naval_ship_detects_underwa ter_signal_that_could.html).

Still Muddled.

1) What things other than the Black Box would cause the Pings in the Ocean?

2) What was Malaysia MOTIVATION for changing the “Already Good Night” message? Seemed like no one questioned why they took the extra step to change it. Was it just brushed off?

[alteran]

2) What was Malaysia MOTIVATION for changing the “Already Good Night” message? Seemed like no one questioned why they took the extra step to change it. Was it just brushed off?

I like a good conspiracy theory as much as the next guy, but I'm reminded of Hanlon's Razor (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon's_razor) here: "never attribute to malice what is adequately explained by stupidity."

My thought is that, like any of a half dozen other things related to the disappearance, Malaysia's government just completely blew it in the first place. Later they caught the error, and ultimately they corrected the record.

In short, correcting the error was the motivation. When they corrected it, even THEY knew they were going to get an earful and a new round of criticism. (Well, they SHOULD have, but maybe they didn't.)

There are many governments which have an excellent chance of getting to the bottom of something like this quickly and competently. Malaysia's is not one of them. Frankly, even the more organized and media savvy governments of the world might have blown it with this disappearance.

[Clay Feet POF]

Thank you you seem to be on top of the updates.

My thoughts regarding the message was it was more than sloppy work, because Malaysia was treating it as a criminal rather than a civil act. Well thats' history.

Thanks again