Embiid done? (Seeding implications)

[JasonEvans]

Joel Embiid has a stress fracture in his back and will miss the Big12 tourney as well as the first weekend of the NCAA tourney (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/10585990/joel-embiid-kansas-jayhawks-indefinitely-getting-second-opinion). At least, that is what Kansas is saying right now. My bet is that he will probably miss even more time than that, but Kansas wants to sound optimistic about him so the NCAA Selection Committee doesn't screw them on seeding. If they knew he would not be back this season, it probably downgrades Kansas severely. But, the prospect of him coming back could give the committee cover to still give Kansas a high seed.

Regardless, the selection committee has to punish Kansas, right? Lets say the Jayhawks lose in the first round of the Big 12 tourney, do you drop them to a #3 or even to a #4 seed? I suppose, if they win the Big 12 tourney, you could give them a #2 seed, but if their non-Embid results are not impressive, I think they have to be a #3 or lower.

In other seeding news, Lunardi (I know, I know -- he's just guessing) has his brackets set for a potential Duke (#2 in East) vs Stanford (#10 in East) game in the 2nd round of the tourney. Probably too delicious for the committee to not make that happen. Remember when K had to play Snyder at Mizzu a few years ago? This would be waaay worse for K, I suspect, as he thinks of Johnny as a son.

-Jason "we can merge this into one of the other seeding threads in a bit -- but I wanted the Embiid news to get some attention from the board for a little bit because it is quite significant" Evans

[FerryFor50]

Joel Embiid has a stress fracture in his back and will miss the Big12 tourney as well as the first weekend of the NCAA tourney (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/10585990/joel-embiid-kansas-jayhawks-indefinitely-getting-second-opinion). At least, that is what Kansas is saying right now. My bet is that he will probably miss even more time than that, but Kansas wants to sound optimistic about him so the NCAA Selection Committee doesn't screw them on seeding. If they knew he would not be back this season, it probably downgrades Kansas severely. But, the prospect of him coming back could give the committee cover to still give Kansas a high seed.

Regardless, the selection committee has to punish Kansas, right? Lets say the Jayhawks lose in the first round of the Big 12 tourney, do you drop them to a #3 or even to a #4 seed? I suppose, if they win the Big 12 tourney, you could give them a #2 seed, but if their non-Embid results are not impressive, I think they have to be a #3 or lower.

In other seeding news, Lunardi (I know, I know -- he's just guessing) has his brackets set for a potential Duke (#2 in East) vs Stanford (#10 in East) game in the 2nd round of the tourney. Probably too delicious for the committee to not make that happen. Remember when K had to play Snyder at Mizzu a few years ago? This would be waaay worse for K, I suspect, as he thinks of Johnny as a son.

-Jason "we can merge this into one of the other seeding threads in a bit -- but I wanted the Embiid news to get some attention from the board for a little bit because it is quite significant" Evans

Saw that article and thought two things:

1) he's likely done for the year, perhaps at KU altogether. Stress fracture in the back of a kid with an nba career ahead of him? Hard to believe he'd come back.

2) pretty irresponsible of the KU medical staff not to catch this sooner (lower back strain? Really??? (http://wvmetronews.com/2014/03/03/backing-out-kansas-plans-to-rest-injured-embiid-wvu-catches-break))

As far as seeding, this will hurt them. How much is unclear... But I doubt they win the big 12 tourny.

And they are now primed for an early exit in the NCAA.

[TexHawk]

Joel Embiid has a stress fracture in his back and will miss the Big12 tourney as well as the first weekend of the NCAA tourney (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/10585990/joel-embiid-kansas-jayhawks-indefinitely-getting-second-opinion). At least, that is what Kansas is saying right now. My bet is that he will probably miss even more time than that, but Kansas wants to sound optimistic about him so the NCAA Selection Committee doesn't screw them on seeding. If they knew he would not be back this season, it probably downgrades Kansas severely. But, the prospect of him coming back could give the committee cover to still give Kansas a high seed.

Perhaps I'm a bit sensitive tonight, but are you suggesting that Bill Self and KU should be sending a different message to the selection committee? Or should they say "you know what, screw it, give us a 5 seed and ship us out west, we clearly don't deserve anything better"?

Didn't Duke have this same situation in 2001 when Boozer went down with the broken foot? How did your coaching staff react publicly? (I honestly can't remember.)

[freshmanjs]

Perhaps I'm a bit sensitive tonight, but are you suggesting that Bill Self and KU should be sending a different message to the selection committee? Or should they say "you know what, screw it, give us a 5 seed and ship us out west, we clearly don't deserve anything better"?

Didn't Duke have this same situation in 2001 when Boozer went down with the broken foot? How did your coaching staff react publicly? (I honestly can't remember.)

1) I don't think Self is doing anything wrong, nor do I have any reason to doubt what Kansas is saying
2) Duke said Boozer could be back in 3 weeks and he was

[El_Diablo]

Perhaps I'm a bit sensitive tonight, but are you suggesting that Bill Self and KU should be sending a different message to the selection committee? Or should they say "you know what, screw it, give us a 5 seed and ship us out west, we clearly don't deserve anything better"?

Didn't Duke have this same situation in 2001 when Boozer went down with the broken foot? How did your coaching staff react publicly? (I honestly can't remember.)

After what the committee did to Cincinnati in 2000, it's perfectly valid to be overly optimistic in discussing injuries this time of year. Even once they are seeded, it would be much better to keep opponents guessing than to announce he's done for the year.

[Utley]

Perhaps I'm a bit sensitive tonight, but are you suggesting that Bill Self and KU should be sending a different message to the selection committee? Or should they say "you know what, screw it, give us a 5 seed and ship us out west, we clearly don't deserve anything better"?

Didn't Duke have this same situation in 2001 when Boozer went down with the broken foot? How did your coaching staff react publicly? (I honestly can't remember.)

Sorry about this news TexHawk. We know what its like to have injuries be a factor at this time of year. I hope he makes it back for the tournament. Whoever wins this year - you want to be the best team - not the best team but for an injury.

[TexHawk]

2) pretty irresponsible of the KU medical staff not to catch this sooner (lower back strain? Really??? (http://wvmetronews.com/2014/03/03/backing-out-kansas-plans-to-rest-injured-embiid-wvu-catches-break))

Whoa whoa whoa.

Embiid strained his back in the first WVU game, tried to play through it at K-State and was in a lot of pain. He sat out the next game against TCU, took a week off, and came back to dominate Texas Tech, Texas, and Oklahoma. Against Oklahoma State last Saturday, he injured his back again. Everyone publicly said it is was a re-aggravation of the same injury. Quietly, they scheduled a 2nd opinion in for Embiid in LA with a specialist, who confirmed their diagnosis of a stress fracture.

There are several reasons why you wouldn't go public with a possible stress fracture at this time of the year, the original post in this thread is exhibit A.

[FerryFor50]

Whoa whoa whoa.

Embiid strained his back in the first WVU game, tried to play through it at K-State and was in a lot of pain. He sat out the next game against TCU, took a week off, and came back to dominate Texas Tech, Texas, and Oklahoma. Against Oklahoma State last Saturday, he injured his back again. Everyone publicly said it is was a re-aggravation of the same injury. Quietly, they scheduled a 2nd opinion in for Embiid in LA with a specialist, who confirmed their diagnosis of a stress fracture.

There are several reasons why you wouldn't go public with a possible stress fracture at this time of the year, the original post in this thread is exhibit A.

Perhaps they were taking the cautious pr route, but I had heard reports they cleared him and it was Embiid that decided to get the 2nd opinion... Any truth to that from what you have heard?

[Kedsy]

Perhaps I'm a bit sensitive tonight, but are you suggesting that Bill Self and KU should be sending a different message to the selection committee? Or should they say "you know what, screw it, give us a 5 seed and ship us out west, we clearly don't deserve anything better"?

Didn't Duke have this same situation in 2001 when Boozer went down with the broken foot? How did your coaching staff react publicly? (I honestly can't remember.)

I think the Duke staff said the same thing Kansas is saying now (although in Duke's case in 2001, that statement turned out to be true). Very similar to what Syracuse said in 2010 when Onuaku was hurt (although he didn't play in the third round either, and if Syracuse had advanced beyond that I have my doubts about whether he would have played at all). After what happened to Cincinnati after the Kenyon Martin injury (in, I think, 2000), I can't imagine any team saying anything worse than "going to miss the first two rounds but hopefully will be back after that."

That suggests, however, that relying on Kansas' public statements regarding Embiid's future availability might not be wise if one wants to know what's really going on.

[TexHawk]

Perhaps they were taking the cautious pr route, but I had heard reports they cleared him and it was Embiid that decided to get the 2nd opinion... Any truth to that from what you have heard?

The family was involved, sure, there are potentially millions of dollars at stake. But I have heard nothing about the team clearing him so he could play through it. And, for the record, KU doesn't have a back specialist on staff. The athletic trainer does a quick pass and refers the injured player to a local hospital (usually KU Med), where x-rays and rehab is done. We are getting close to Occam's Razor here. That's a lot of people to be involved with a cover-up.

I suppose it won't stop the rival fans from assuming this was Bill Self orchestrating something, but let's be honest. If he puts the prospective #1 pick back on the floor with a diagnosed stress fracture and it doesn't get better or he re-injures it? He'd never be able to recruit a lottery-level player again.

[FerryFor50]

The family was involved, sure, there are potentially millions of dollars at stake. But I have heard nothing about the team clearing him so he could play through it. And, for the record, KU doesn't have a back specialist on staff. The athletic trainer does a quick pass and refers the injured player to a local hospital (usually KU Med), where x-rays and rehab is done. We are getting close to Occam's Razor here. That's a lot of people to be involved with a cover-up.

I suppose it won't stop the rival fans from assuming this was Bill Self orchestrating something, but let's be honest. If he puts the prospective #1 pick back on the floor with a diagnosed stress fracture and it doesn't get better or he re-injures it? He'd never be able to recruit a lottery-level player again.

I never said there was a cover up. Just incompetence. :)

(Not that it's any better)

[UrinalCake]

There is absolutely no reason to disclose the extent of a player's injury. Why would you? So your fans know what to expect? Aside from that, you gain nothing except being penalized with a lower seed. It's not like in the NFL where you are required to disclose an injury report and can be fined for being consistently dishonest about it.

[freshmanjs]

There is absolutely no reason to disclose the extent of a player's injury. Why would you? So your fans know what to expect? Aside from that, you gain nothing except being penalized with a lower seed. It's not like in the NFL where you are required to disclose an injury report and can be fined for being consistently dishonest about it.

Agree. However, I think all coaches would try to signal any potential good news to the committee. Kyrie warming up at the ACC tournament was probably intended as a signal that he would be ready soon. Not misleading in any way since he was ready to go the next week. But, Duke wanted the committee to know he was close.

[OZ]

Remember when K had to play Snyder at Mizzu a few years ago?
-Jason "we can merge this into one of the other seeding threads in a bit -- but I wanted the Embiid news to get some attention from the board for a little bit because it is quite significant" Evans

My mind is going fast, but I don't recall K playing against Quinn AT Mizzu. My only recollection of K vs Snyder was in the East Regionals in 2001 and that game was in Greensboro, NC. Seems like I was there.

[Atlanta Duke]

Perhaps I'm a bit sensitive tonight, but are you suggesting that Bill Self and KU should be sending a different message to the selection committee? Or should they say "you know what, screw it, give us a 5 seed and ship us out west, we clearly don't deserve anything better"?

Sorry this may be worse than initially thought. DBR posters know the joys of dealing with injuries in March - in addition to the Carlos Boozer injury Duke had to deal with Jay Williams severely spraining his ankle in the 2001 ACC championship blowout win over UNC.

And Duke has gone through other issues involving perceptions of the selection committee, more recently with Kyrie Irving's return in 2011.

But the perception issue here is that on Saturday this statement was attributed to Bill Self

“Hopefully we get real positive news. Hopefully he can be on the practice floor very very soon. We will not put him out there just because he feels better but because the doctors says it’s time to get back out there. Hopefully it will be real soon, if not we’ll sit him a little longer. We still don’t think it will affect (his participation in) the NCAA tournament in any way.”

http://collegebasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/03/09/kansas-center-joel-embiid-to-see-a-back-specialist-on-monday/related/

Now it appears Embiid may miss the first weekend of the tournament following an examination by a non-UK doctor in California. That calls into question the credibility of what Kansas has been saying with regard to the anticipated recovery time

If Duke were to somehow get a #2 seed it would be rotten luck for the committee to over-react and drop Kansas to a #3 seed in Duke's region. For a variety of reasons I hope Kansas stays a #2 seed somewhere other than Duke's region.

[Edouble]

In other seeding news, Lunardi (I know, I know -- he's just guessing) has his brackets set for a potential Duke (#2 in East) vs Stanford (#10 in East) game in the 2nd round of the tourney. Probably too delicious for the committee to not make that happen. Remember when K had to play Snyder at Mizzu a few years ago? This would be waaay worse for K, I suspect, as he thinks of Johnny as a son.

-Jason "we can merge this into one of the other seeding threads in a bit -- but I wanted the Embiid news to get some attention from the board for a little bit because it is quite significant" Evans

Not making fun of you, but "a few years ago"... it was 13 seasons ago. I laugh, because to me, it also just seems like a few years back. Time certainly flies.

[Edouble]

My mind is going fast, but I don't recall K playing against Quinn AT Mizzu. My only recollection of K vs Snyder was in the East Regionals in 2001 and that game was in Greensboro, NC. Seems like I was there.

That was a second round game against Mizzou in Greensboro in 2001. The East Regionals were played in Philly that year. We beat a Henry Bibby coached USC team to get to the Final Four.

[hurleyfor3]

After what the committee did to Cincinnati in 2000, it's perfectly valid to be overly optimistic in discussing injuries this time of year.

They didn't screw Cincy (Cincy was screwed regardless of what the ncaa did) so much as hand unc the greatest bracketing gift ever.

Anyway, I feel for Kansas. They weren't unbeatable at all, but it always feels better to beat teams at full strength. Their fanbase must be crapping bricks right now.

[bedeviled]

Now it appears Embiid may miss the first weekend of the tournament following an examination by a non-UK doctor in California. That calls into question the credibility of what Kansas has been saying with regard to the anticipated recovery timeThis is a non-issue to most of us, but, for TexHawk's sake, I'd like to point out that Kansas is traditionally referred to as 'KU.' If Embiid was going to a 'UK' (Kentucky) doctor, then Self really is up to something odd.

The Kansas physicians had apparently diagnosed the stress fracture, and Embiid was already resting - the second opinion confirmed the diagnosis. To me, there isn't any considerable difference between hoping he might be back for the conference tournament and now not hoping for that, as prognoses can become more clear over time, with additional testing/rehab, or simply due to differing expert opinions (I bet there were widely variable opinions on what Seth Curry should do). If Kansas is playing their cards, perhaps they wanted to put the more favorable timeline out into the media but backtracked a little bit when a 3rd party (the 2nd opinion) became involved. At any rate, I don't see it as a big deal....and certainly not an indication of mismanagement or conspiracy.

[tommy]

Feeling for TexHawk right now. Such a shame, not only for Embiid himself, but for KU fans who have been following their team closely, watching them grow, hoping they're building towards something big, and then just when it's about to jump, this happens. Takes all the air out of the balloon. We at Duke know the feeling all too well. Sucks for all fans of the game.

That being said, let's not cry too too much just yet for the Jayhawks. This need not be a death knell for them. After all, they have beaten a number of good teams this season -- tournament teams -- while getting modest production from Embiid. Including their victory over Duke, in which Embiid played only 20 minutes, scoring just two points and blocking just one shot.l

[IBleedBlue]

Feeling for TexHawk right now. Such a shame, not only for Embiid himself, but for KU fans who have been following their team closely, watching them grow, hoping they're building towards something big, and then just when it's about to jump, this happens. Takes all the air out of the balloon. We at Duke know the feeling all too well. Sucks for all fans of the game.

I would not count out Coach Self so easily. Over the past few years, he has become good at using what he has and win games in the process. I expect him to make some quick changes and use the conference tournament as the experimentation ground before the NCAA tournament starts. To me, he is starting to remind of Coach K in that how he wins with the hands he is dealt with.

[TexHawk]

While I do appreciate the sentiment, don't feel for us too much. Season ain't over, and crazier things have happened. I have a feeling that we will see a lot of pressing, like we saw in the 2nd half against WVU. While Andrew Wiggins hopefully pulls off a crazy Melo/Glen Rice/Danny Manning hybrid over the next month. A full-court press usually isn't Bill Self's style, but some creativity is needed.

KU has had a pretty incredible run of success over the last 25-30 years, and that's partly due to a remarkable avoidance of major injury*. In 2007, Brandon Rush declared for the NBA and then blew out his knee in a pre-draft scrimmage. He pulled out, rehabbed, then helped win us a national championship in 2008. That was unbelievably lucky.

* The old fogies in Lawrence tell me we would have beat you guys in '86 if not for Archie Marshall's knee.

[flyingdutchdevil]

While I do appreciate the sentiment, don't feel for us too much. Season ain't over, and crazier things have happened. I have a feeling that we will see a lot of pressing, like we saw in the 2nd half against WVU. While Andrew Wiggins hopefully pulls off a crazy Melo/Glen Rice/Danny Manning hybrid over the next month. A full-court press usually isn't Bill Self's style, but some creativity is needed.

KU has had a pretty incredible run of success over the last 25-30 years, and that's partly due to a remarkable avoidance of major injury*. In 2007, Brandon Rush declared for the NBA and then blew out his knee in a pre-draft scrimmage. He pulled out, rehabbed, then helped win us a national championship in 2008. That was unbelievably lucky.

* The old fogies in Lawrence tell me we would have beat you guys in '86 if not for Archie Marshall's knee.

Hi TexHawk,

Sorry to hear about Embiid. He's a defensive stud, and I hope we recovers because I want to destroy Kansas at full-strength ;).

Hope he recovers. Backs are insanely fragile and difficult to understand.

[Matches]

Didn't Duke have this same situation in 2001 when Boozer went down with the broken foot? How did your coaching staff react publicly? (I honestly can't remember.)

We played things pretty straight-up with Boozer, but K kept his cards very close to the vest when Ryan Kelly got hurt right before the ACCT in 2012. I believe the staff knew Kelly would not play again that season, but officially he was "out for the ACCT" or "questionable" beyond that.

It only makes sense. If you don't have to disclose injuries, and the committee may lower your seed if you do, there's no reason to disclose other than to satisfy the curiosity of fans or media. Frankly, I'm surprised KU is even acknowledging yet that Embiid would miss the first weekend of the NCAAT.

[FerryFor50]

While I do appreciate the sentiment, don't feel for us too much. Season ain't over, and crazier things have happened. I have a feeling that we will see a lot of pressing, like we saw in the 2nd half against WVU. While Andrew Wiggins hopefully pulls off a crazy Melo/Glen Rice/Danny Manning hybrid over the next month. A full-court press usually isn't Bill Self's style, but some creativity is needed.

KU has had a pretty incredible run of success over the last 25-30 years, and that's partly due to a remarkable avoidance of major injury*. In 2007, Brandon Rush declared for the NBA and then blew out his knee in a pre-draft scrimmage. He pulled out, rehabbed, then helped win us a national championship in 2008. That was unbelievably lucky.

* The old fogies in Lawrence tell me we would have beat you guys in '86 if not for Archie Marshall's knee.

Wiggins will be the key - if the same Wiggins that showed up against WVU shows up for Kansas every night, your guys will be ok.

[Bluedog]

Wiggins will be the key - if the same Wiggins that showed up against WVU shows up for Kansas every night, your guys will be ok.

Except that they lost to WVU despite Wiggins....(But I agree with your general sentiment.)

[Atlanta Duke]

This is a non-issue to most of us, but, for TexHawk's sake, I'd like to point out that Kansas is traditionally referred to as 'KU.' If Embiid was going to a 'UK' (Kentucky) doctor, then Self really is up to something odd.


Typo - it was 12:50 a.m. and past my bedtime - mea culpa on the juxtaposition of the K and the U - I did not intend to refer to either Kentucky or the United Kingdom:)


The Kansas physicians had apparently diagnosed the stress fracture, and Embiid was already resting - the second opinion confirmed the diagnosis. To me, there isn't any considerable difference between hoping he might be back for the conference tournament and now not hoping for that, as prognoses can become more clear over time, with additional testing/rehab, or simply due to differing expert opinions (I bet there were widely variable opinions on what Seth Curry should do). If Kansas is playing their cards, perhaps they wanted to put the more favorable timeline out into the media but backtracked a little bit when a 3rd party (the 2nd opinion) became involved. At any rate, I don't see it as a big deal....and certainly not an indication of mismanagement or conspiracy.

I am not saying it is a cover-up. You can lose your credibility by making an innocent misstatement. Bill Self's statement on Saturday understated the anticipated amount of time Embiid would be ou.t

[FerryFor50]

Except that they lost to WVU despite Wiggins....(But I agree with your general sentiment.)

Right, but KU had several key guys in foul trouble - Selden and Black, specifically. Plus, they got pretty bad showings from Mason and Tharpe.

[TexHawk]

Frankly, I'm surprised KU is even acknowledging yet that Embiid would miss the first weekend of the NCAAT.

This is a good point, but I have to think that Self knows that he can't be a complete jerk about this, or risk the committee's ire in future tournaments if a similar issue pops up.

[CDu]

Right, but KU had several key guys in foul trouble - Selden and Black, specifically. Plus, they got pretty bad showings from Mason and Tharpe.

Mason shot 3-4 from 3pt range and scored almost double his season average. Selden gave you more or less his season averages (24 min, 8 pts, 3 reb, 2 ast) despite fouling out. And Tarik Black was able to play almost double his season average in minutes (22 vs 12.2) while only committing about one more foul (4 vs 2.7). You're going to have to deal with Black's foul trouble for the rest of the season as long as Embiid is out, because Black has always been very foul prone.

The biggest issue I saw from the WVU game was the awful performance by Tharpe. He had 16 minutes, 0 points, 0 assists, and 1 turnover. From your veteran starting PG, that's atrocious. Tharpe has had a magnificant year (WAY better than any of his previous years), but he was a clunker against WVU.

With Embiid out, it looks like you're going to need Tharpe to play at his best and you're going to have to hope that Black and Lucas can hold down the fort at C (either that or Wesley/Traylor will have to fill in there).

It's a definite setback if he's out for the tournament, but as you said it's still a talented team. It's nice to be able to turn to a 3-year starter at Memphis as the replacement for your freshman star at C.

[Dukehky]

Does this injury make Embiid more or less likely to go pro? Does he see this injury as the final push toward the NBA, or does he want to be healthy and show he can stay healthy before he enters the draft?

[jv001]

I really feel bad for Embiid and KU. I know as a Duke fan, how disappointing it is to have one of your best players injured anytime of the year, but especially at the end of the year. I can imagine how bad Embiid feels right now. I just hope he recovers quickly and is able to play in the NCAAT. Get well quickly kid. GoDuke!

[Nosbleuatu]

This is a good point, but I have to think that Self knows that he can't be a complete jerk about this, or risk the committee's ire in future tournaments if a similar issue pops up.

I would think they're more worried about word leaking out and looking deceptive if they haven't addressed it (and put the best spin on it they can). You run the risk of an overreaction by the committee that way.

[Atlanta Duke]

Does this injury make Embiid more or less likely to go pro? Does he see this injury as the final push toward the NBA, or does he want to be healthy and show he can stay healthy before he enters the draft?

This ESPN blogger/cynic not only says go pro now, he says shut it down so as not to jeopardize future earnings potential

Forget March: Embiid should prep for pros

Sure, college basketball is about the kids, the game, the purity of competition, the amateurism, the team and the blah, blah, blah, blah. Whatever. When you’re a possible top-three pick, draft positioning has to be considered....

Embiid is no different than a University of Kansas economics major. He’s in Lawrence to learn, grow and eventually make some money as the result of his collegiate experience.

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/95518/forget-march-embiid-should-prep-for-pros

[TexHawk]

The biggest issue I saw from the WVU game was the awful performance by Tharpe. He had 16 minutes, 0 points, 0 assists, and 1 turnover. From your veteran starting PG, that's atrocious. Tharpe has had a magnificant year (WAY better than any of his previous years), but he was a clunker against WVU.

With Embiid out, it looks like you're going to need Tharpe to play at his best and you're going to have to hope that Black and Lucas can hold down the fort at C (either that or Wesley/Traylor will have to fill in there).


The team will mostly go as Tharpe goes, barring something crazy happening with Selden/Mason/Frankamp. He has only had one stretch of back-to-back games when he has played well, arguably our biggest conference wins (23 @ISU, 21 against OSU). But if you look at his point production after that, it's the definition of inconsistent: 6-0-12-3-22-5-13-0-6-2-19-6-16-0. Tharpe was never meant to be a lead guard, so it's fairly frightening that our season is on his shoulders. Ellis is Ellis at this point. He can put up 25 or allow his guy to score 25, sometimes in the same game.

*My* biggest fear is defense. Most years we can rely on our defense if the offense is inconsistent, but this year there is only Wiggins (arguable the best on-ball defender in CBB) and Embiid in the back to clean up drives. There's a reason WVU scored 92 points last weekend, it was mostly Juwan Staten getting around Tharpe at will with nobody challenging him at the basket. The rest of the players are average defenders (Black/Traylor/Selden) or downright horrific (Ellis/Greene/Mason/Frankamp).

Like I said above, I hope that Self doesn't just sit back and plug Black in for Embiid and not change anything else. The comeback from 25->5 happened with Wiggins/Traylor/Mason leading the press, and playing a bit of Louisville-style chaos. Let's just hope that Wiggins doesn't crash on the court due to exhaustion. Hopefully the longer TV timeouts will help.

[BD80]

... Frankly, I'm surprised KU is even acknowledging yet that Embiid would miss the first weekend of the NCAAT.

The announcement takes the pressure off of Embiid. If it were thought to be a simple strain, there would be many challenging his "toughness." Now it is a certified medical issue, and no one will challenge the decision of whether to play or not.

[JasonEvans]

My mind is going fast, but I don't recall K playing against Quinn AT Mizzu. My only recollection of K vs Snyder was in the East Regionals in 2001 and that game was in Greensboro, NC. Seems like I was there.

You are recalling the same thing I did. I merely meant that K had to play Quinn when Quinn was the coach at Mizzu. Looking back at it, my phrasing was poor and makes it seem like I was talking about a road game. Mea culpa.

I also want to clarify that I don't think Self or KU are doing anything nefarious or wrong to indicate that Embiid may be back later in the tournament. I am sure they hope that is the case and they have at least some reason to believe it could turn out that way. I as merely indicating that hoping he comes back and saying he is likely to do so is their best hope to preserve a good seed. I have zero problem with them playing a bit of gamesmanship in doing so...

...but I doubt he is back any time this season. Backs are just nasty nasty things from which to recover.

Of course, if KU goes out and wins the Big 12 minus Embiid that would also assure them a good seed. I like KU and Self so that is what I will be rooting for!

-Jason "March injuries suuuuck!" Evans

[diveonthefloor]

If my memory serves, Christian Laettner and Danny Ferry had the same condition (bilateral L5 pars defect).... and played with the condition. Even in the pros.

Anyone out there who can shed light?

[TexHawk]

Bill Self on the timeline of events (http://www2.kusports.com/news/2014/mar/12/ku-coach-self-outlines-timeline-joel-embiids-back-/), if interested.

[ChillinDuke]

Does this injury make Embiid more or less likely to go pro? Does he see this injury as the final push toward the NBA, or does he want to be healthy and show he can stay healthy before he enters the draft?

I don't know what he sees, but I can tell you what I would do: Go Pro.

If I had any injury that had the possibility of being long-term and/or recurring and/or emblematic of the "injury prone" label, I would leave as fast as I could if I were a lottery pick. It's too risky otherwise, financially.

Embiid is a great talent. I do get the vibe just watching him on the court that he may have an injury prone body type. Just looks it to me.

I'd jump.

- Chillin

[sporthenry]

Does this injury make Embiid more or less likely to go pro? Does he see this injury as the final push toward the NBA, or does he want to be healthy and show he can stay healthy before he enters the draft?

I'd agree with the person who says go pro. Right now, he isn't known as injury prone. If he comes back and this is nagging, he will be seen as injury prone. Right now, he might drop to 2 or 3. If he comes back, odds are much higher he could drop further than that.

Going first would result in a 5 year $29 million contract (assuming options are picked up/no super max), compared to 2nd at $26 or 3rd at $23 million. Certainly, money at stake but is it worth it for another $3-5 million when you might lose $10-$15 million if you come back?

I guess you could argue that Embiid would never fall that far and that may be true. Don't think someone with his talent/potential has ever stayed in college. But Jared Sullinger, Perry Jones III, Marcus Smart, Harrison Barnes or even McBob and Singler show the potential downfall of not declaring when you can. Sure, we could argue about the extra year(s) might help that player down the road on their second or third contract but at least for the first one, you go when you can go.

[MChambers]

I guess you could argue that Embiid would never fall that far and that may be true. Don't think someone with his talent/potential has ever stayed in college. But Jared Sullinger, Perry Jones III, Marcus Smart, Harrison Barnes or even McBob and Singler show the potential downfall of not declaring when you can. Sure, we could argue about the extra year(s) might help that player down the road on their second or third contract but at least for the first one, you go when you can go.
Tim Duncan is on the other line.

I get your point, of course. I'd argue there's more to life than maximizing the value of your first NBA contract, however.

[CDu]

Tim Duncan is on the other line.

I get your point, of course. I'd argue there's more to life than maximizing the value of your first NBA contract, however.

And for you, that may be true. But college is not the same experience for everyone. For some, the college experience is worth the risk of hurting your draft stock (or worse, eliminating your draft stock altogether) and risking reducing the amount of money you'll make by the millions. For others, it is more important to get while the getting is good.

Neither answer (going or staying) is wrong: it's all a matter of personal preference. And that personal preference will differ depending upon the person.

[MChambers]

And for you, that may be true. But college is not the same experience for everyone. For some, the college experience is worth the risk of hurting your draft stock (or worse, eliminating your draft stock altogether) and risking reducing the amount of money you'll make by the millions. For others, it is more important to get while the getting is good.

Neither answer (going or staying) is wrong: it's all a matter of personal preference. And that personal preference will differ depending upon the person.
Did I suggest otherwise?

[Henderson]

The guy is a freshman and relatively new to basketball. Regardless of the effect on the Kansas team or their seeding, I hate to see a young guy get hurt, especially one whose talent level is so high. I hope he recovers quickly, plays in the NCAA tourney, and has a long injury-free and successful NBA career. I don't want him to compromise the draft position of any of our guys, and I'd like not to have to worry about his talent in next season's CBB. But this is not good news for him or for basketball fans. "Questionable physically" is not a good label for NBA GMs.

[CDu]

Did I suggest otherwise?

Did I suggest that you suggested otherwise?

[Matches]

I'd agree with the person who says go pro. Right now, he isn't known as injury prone. If he comes back and this is nagging, he will be seen as injury prone. Right now, he might drop to 2 or 3. If he comes back, odds are much higher he could drop further than that.


Yup. His draft stock can only go down. Another thing to consider: if he's got back problems now, he's going to have worse back problems as he gets older. If it becomes a chronic thing, he's not likely to be in the league when he's 35 - best to monetize his most productive years while he can, as opposed to playing them for free.

Of course he may want to stay in college for a variety of reasons, most of which are subjective but all of which are valid. I don't think Tim Duncan or Grant Hill are relevant data points for him, though - the landscape has changed pretty dramatically since those guys were in college.

[billy]

If my memory serves, Christian Laettner and Danny Ferry had the same condition (bilateral L5 pars defect).... and played with the condition. Even in the pros.

Anyone out there who can shed light?

Don't know about Laettner and Ferry, but, I believe KU when they say he could be back soon. I agree backs can be tricky, but, the issue with a stress fracture is more one of dealing with the pain than any fear of further damage occurring. With rest and rehab, he very likely will play again this season.

[TexHawk]

Don't know about Laettner and Ferry, but, I believe KU when they say he could be back soon. I agree backs can be tricky, but, the issue with a stress fracture is more one of dealing with the pain than any fear of further damage occurring. With rest and rehab, he very likely will play again this season.

The link I posted earlier with the Bill Self timeline brings up a similar scenario with Emeka Okafor in 2004, it's almost 10 years ago to the day. Exact same injury, and he was back playing (and playing really well) in the tournament within a couple of weeks. Not counting on it though.

[MChambers]

Did I suggest that you suggested otherwise?
By quoting me, and saying "for you, that may be true", you seemed to be correcting me. Maybe I misread your post. . .

[CDu]

By quoting me, and saying "for you, that may be true", you seemed to be correcting me. Maybe I misread your post. . .

I was no more correcting you than you were correcting those who say he should go by saying "I'd argue that there are more important things..."

You were pointing out an alternative view. I was pointing out that both views are valid, depending upon the individual (and using you as an example of an individual for whom staying might make more sense).

[JasonEvans]

Want to chime in and say that I fully agree that Embiid needs to go pro. If you are a top 3 projected pick, the risk of coming back and seeing your stock drop is just too great.

James Michael McAdoo, Josh McRoberts, and (to a lesser extent) Harrison Barnes are all nodding their heads in agreement with the above statement.

<Snark mode = on>That said, I think Jabari Parker would be well served to come back to school. No way he drops at all in the draft if he comes back to school. What's more, he seems like the kind of kid who cares about "having the ring" and putting a real stamp on college ball... the way he did in the Illinois High School league... so unless Duke wins the title this year, he may really want to return.

And, of course, if Duke does win the title he will probably want to come back to do the unthinkable and be a repeat champ. <snark mode=off>

So, to recap. Embiid needs to go pro... Jabari should do the smart thing and stay at Duke. Glad I could clear that up for everyone.

-Jason "that was fun!" Evans

[TexHawk]

Gary Bedore ‏@GaryBedore 1h
Embiid shooting and moving well at ku shootaround. He's out there w teammates.

Rustin Dodd ‏@rustindodd 1h
Joel Embiid taking part in light shootaround. Emphasis on light. pic.twitter.com/DC5WmFSopW.


Sigh, I was beginning to enjoy the thought of entering the tournament without high expectations. They are just toying with me at this point.

[NSDukeFan]

Gary Bedore ‏@GaryBedore 1h
Embiid shooting and moving well at ku shootaround. He's out there w teammates.

Rustin Dodd ‏@rustindodd 1h
Joel Embiid taking part in light shootaround. Emphasis on light. pic.twitter.com/DC5WmFSopW.


Sigh, I was beginning to enjoy the thought of entering the tournament without high expectations. They are just toying with me at this point.

As I expect you are well aware though, it is better to have those high expectations, even if they are harder to achieve.