Duke #7 in new AP poll (3/10/2014)

[FerryFor50]

UVA loses to Maryland, beats Syracuse, drops from 5 to 6.

Duke beats UNC, loses to Wake, drops from 4 to 7.

UNC loses to Duke, barely beats ND by 2, stays at 15.

I <3 the AP polls.

[DukeAlumBS]

I saw this too. Very funny. It will change after the tourney. I feel we have the firepower to do this.
Villanova to number 4? This will pan out as well.
Have nice day
Jimmy

[Duvall]

UVA loses to Maryland, beats Syracuse, drops from 5 to 6.

Duke beats UNC, loses to Wake, drops from 4 to 7.

UNC loses to Duke, barely beats ND by 2, stays at 15.

I <3 the AP polls.

Can't complain about dropping only three spots after losing to a Jeff Bzdelik team.

[Kfanarmy]

Where do they belong? They have one home win against a top ten team. They have two road/neutral losses against top ten teams. they've split with the number 11 and 15 teams, home and away. They aren't undeserving of the current ranking, but one could argue that they are a few spots above where they should be. (current rankings)

[Kedsy]

Where do they belong? They have one home win against a top ten team. They have two road/neutral losses against top ten teams. they've split with the number 11 and 15 teams, home and away. They aren't undeserving of the current ranking, but one could argue that they are a few spots above where they should be. (current rankings)

To what team does "they" refer?

[FerryFor50]

To what team does "they" refer?

Pretty sure he means Duke.

As for where Duke should be ranked, you have to look at the teams ranked around them. I can't make a case for anyone to be ranked higher.

San Diego St is in a weaker conference and has been slumping a bit.

Michigan has played better lately, but Duke beat them.

Kansas beat Duke, but Duke has a better overall record.

Syracuse has been in a free fall. Wisconsin is Wisconsin.

[Kfanarmy]

To what team does "they" refer? sorry....I should have known on the Duke Basketball Report, in a thread entitled "Duke #7 in new AP Poll," everyone would assume I was talking about Duke...Really though I was focused on FGCU.

[Kfanarmy]

Pretty sure he means Duke.

As for where Duke should be ranked, you have to look at the teams ranked around them. I can't make a case for anyone to be ranked higher.

San Diego St is in a weaker conference and has been slumping a bit.

Michigan has played better lately, but Duke beat them.

Kansas beat Duke, but Duke has a better overall record.

Syracuse has been in a free fall. Wisconsin is Wisconsin. I completely agree; at the same time if you took the exact same record and gave it to Wake, or Illinois, or Alabama, etc. I think you'd be looking somewhere in the 10-15 range.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

sorry....I should have known on the Duke Basketball Report, in a thread entitled "Duke #7 in new AP Poll," everyone would assume I was talking about Duke...Really though I was focused on FGCU.

Amazing that you don't have anyone to sit with in the cafeteria. You just exude charisma.

Now, addressing the points on this thread - what you are seeing is the necessary outcome of a week in which so many highly ranked teams lost. I mean really, you can't just elevate crappy teams when everyone else in the rankings loses. We're seeing a very odd season unfold here. No one seems to be separating themselves from the field to any significant degree. Florida comes the closest, I suppose, but the only ranked team they have played in three months is Kentucky. Wichita State is undefeated, but can't even convince everyone they deserve a number one seed, much less the #1 ranking. Duke, Syracuse, UVA all lost LAST WEEK, as did Arizona. Louisville and Villanova have nice records, but haven't exactly played murderer's row in conference either.

This year's tournament is as wide open as I can remember. If someone offered you the chance to bet $100 and pick TWO teams to win the championship (you win if either one takes the top prize), which would they be?

[FerryFor50]

I completely agree; at the same time if you took the exact same record and gave it to Wake, or Illinois, or Alabama, etc. I think you'd be looking somewhere in the 10-15 range.

Perhaps. I think you'd have to look at SOS, though. Duke has played a stronger schedule than Wake and Illinois. Alabama has played the #2 SOS. If they had the same record as Duke, they'd be top 5 for sure.

SOS:

Duke - 8
Wake - 80
Illinois - 33
Alabama - 2

I get that you're hinting at name recognition, and there is probably some truth to that. But being a fixture in the top 10 of the polls for years and years affords you some benefit of the doubt.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I completely agree; at the same time if you took the exact same record and gave it to Wake, or Illinois, or Alabama, etc. I think you'd be looking somewhere in the 10-15 range.

But that would be ignorant, as Duke has played the 8th best strength of schedule in the nation.

[brevity]

Where do they belong? They have one home win against a top ten team. They have two road/neutral losses against top ten teams. they've split with the number 11 and 15 teams, home and away. They aren't undeserving of the current ranking, but one could argue that they are a few spots above where they should be. (current rankings)


To what team does "they" refer?


sorry....I should have known on the Duke Basketball Report, in a thread entitled "Duke #7 in new AP Poll," everyone would assume I was talking about Duke...Really though I was focused on FGCU.

Misplaced snark. (I know because I'm very organized when it comes to snark.)

DBR people talk about a lot of different teams, even on this thread, because of a shared inability to compartmentalize. I think Villanova is being actively discussed on, like, 8 threads right now.

Anyway, if you want to use a vague pronoun to describe Duke, try "we" instead of "they." Assumptions without context can be trouble. It's like the old saying: when you ASSUME something, you do AS those at SU would do to ME. I'm not sure what that means, but I think it involves trying to take off your suit jacket and getting ejected from the game.

[CDu]

Pretty sure he means Duke.

As for where Duke should be ranked, you have to look at the teams ranked around them. I can't make a case for anyone to be ranked higher.

San Diego St is in a weaker conference and has been slumping a bit.

Michigan has played better lately, but Duke beat them.

Kansas beat Duke, but Duke has a better overall record.

Syracuse has been in a free fall. Wisconsin is Wisconsin.

I would say that Kansas has a better resume than us. Yes, they have one more loss. But they are slightly better than us against the top-25 (6-3 vs 5-4), slightly better than us against the top-50 (12-7 vs 6-4), equal to us against the top-100 (16-8 vs 10-5), and better than us against the top-150 (20-8 vs 17-7). The only reason their record is one game worse than ours is because they've played a tougher schedule, with SEVEN more games against the RPI 26-50 teams than us. That, and they beat us.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I would say that Kansas has a better resume than us. Yes, they have one more loss. But they are slightly better than us against the top-25 (6-3 vs 5-4), slightly better than us against the top-50 (12-7 vs 6-4), equal to us against the top-100 (16-8 vs 10-5), and better than us against the top-150 (20-8 vs 17-7). The only reason their record is one game worse than ours is because they've played a tougher schedule, with SEVEN more games against the RPI 26-50 teams than us. That, and they beat us.

It's the little things. :)

Seriously though, a resume is a lot more than the wins and losses. Hence Wichita State and Kansas both ranked in the top 10.

[Kfanarmy]

Misplaced snark. (I know because I'm very organized when it comes to snark.)
Actually, I suspect Kedsy was intentionally peeing on my leg because I’d disagreed on several of his statistical representations lately. I shouldn’t have responded in kind. Thank you


But that would be ignorant, as Duke has played the 8th best strength of schedule in the nation. Perhaps, but I suspect more than a few of the AP contributors can’t tell you who is ranked where on SOS or anything else except whether a team won or lost and to whom in the past week.


Perhaps. I think you'd have to look at SOS, though. Duke has played a stronger schedule than Wake and Illinois. Alabama has played the #2 SOS. If they had the same record as Duke, they'd be top 5 for sure.
I get that you're hinting at name recognition, and there is probably some truth to that. But being a fixture in the top 10 of the polls for years and years affords you some benefit of the doubt. I think that name recognition plays a bit into Duke’s pre-tourney rankings. It can be helpful for seeding if used, but may be a bit misleading in the expectations department. I just find it hard to believe that a top ten team hasn't won more than five games in a row all season...maybe I'm just twitchy about the NCAA tourney.

[mkirsh]

I would say that Kansas has a better resume than us. Yes, they have one more loss. But they are slightly better than us against the top-25 (6-3 vs 5-4), slightly better than us against the top-50 (12-7 vs 6-4), equal to us against the top-100 (16-8 vs 10-5), and better than us against the top-150 (20-8 vs 17-7). The only reason their record is one game worse than ours is because they've played a tougher schedule, with SEVEN more games against the RPI 26-50 teams than us. That, and they beat us.

I know the AP and Kenpom are very different things, but Pomeroy has us at 7 just barely ahead of #8 Kansas despite the weaker schedule

[FerryFor50]

I would say that Kansas has a better resume than us. Yes, they have one more loss. But they are slightly better than us against the top-25 (6-3 vs 5-4), slightly better than us against the top-50 (12-7 vs 6-4), equal to us against the top-100 (16-8 vs 10-5), and better than us against the top-150 (20-8 vs 17-7). The only reason their record is one game worse than ours is because they've played a tougher schedule, with SEVEN more games against the RPI 26-50 teams than us. That, and they beat us.

Fair and accurate. However, KU wasn't going to move up after a loss to WVU, who is outside the RPI top 50 (#83).

[CDu]

Fair and accurate. However, KU wasn't going to move up after a loss to WVU, who is outside the RPI top 50 (#83).

Which is still better than our loss to Wake...

[FerryFor50]

Which is still better than our loss to Wake...

Not by that much. But our win over UNC (29) is way better than their win over Texas Tech (113).

[CDu]

Not by that much. But our win over UNC (29) is way better than their win over Texas Tech (113).

Regardless, they should have been ranked ahead of us coming into the week (their resume was better than ours all season).

The discussion was "are there teams behind us that should be ahead of us?" So I would say "yes: Kansas."

[Duvall]

Regardless, they should have been ranked ahead of us coming into the week (their resume was better than ours all season).

The discussion was "are there teams behind us that should be ahead of us?" So I would say "yes: Kansas."

There's more to rankings than resumes, though. Pollsters can and should consider margin of victory and other performance factors as well.

[arnie]

Where do they belong? They have one home win against a top ten team.

We beat two teams at home currently in top 10.

[CDu]

There's more to rankings than resumes, though. Pollsters can and should consider margin of victory and other performance factors as well.

Sure, but the voters don't even get it right based on resume. They sure as heck aren't going to be able to factor those other things properly.

[FerryFor50]

There's more to rankings than resumes, though. Pollsters can and should consider margin of victory and other performance factors as well.

Kansas should be ahead of Duke, but they have had bad timing and fell pretty far in the middle of the season, so have had a tougher climb back up.

But given your argument for KU, then you must agree that UVA shouldn't be ahead of Duke... I mean, Duke beat UVA, right? And UVA has had a lighter schedule. And the records don't tell the whole story...

[sagegrouse]

Kansas should be ahead of Duke, but they have had bad timing and fell pretty far in the middle of the season, so have had a tougher climb back up.

But given your argument for KU, then you must agree that UVA shouldn't be ahead of Duke... I mean, Duke beat UVA, right? And UVA has had a lighter schedule. And the records don't tell the whole story...

UVa leads Duke by one point in the AP and trails in the Coaches' Poll.

[CDu]

Kansas should be ahead of Duke, but they have had bad timing and fell pretty far in the middle of the season, so have had a tougher climb back up.

But given your argument for KU, then you must agree that UVA shouldn't be ahead of Duke... I mean, Duke beat UVA, right? And UVA has had a lighter schedule. And the records don't tell the whole story...

I agree that Duke should be ahead of UVa. Would need to look at all of the resumes closely to see where Duke should be overall, but 7 or 8 sounds about right.