Phase VI: The ACC Tournament

[sagegrouse]

Here are some keys to the ACC tournament:

1. Health, as Usual. The team has been healthy; let it continue!

2. Leadership? Is this now Jabari’s team, based on the leadership he showed against UNC?

3. Rotation? I think we have an eight-player rotation, which is pretty deep for Coach K: Rodney, Amile, Tyler, Quinn, Rasheed, Andre and Marshall seem to be getting almost all of the minutes.

4. Poise at the End of the Game? This is the scary part. The panic against Wake and some anxious moments against UNC show that we must improve at the end of the game. Will Quinn take firm control? Can Tyler stay on the floor? Can Rasheed play under control?

5. Defense! I see improvement in Duke’s defense, but it may be illusory as Wake shot well and UNC shot 60 percent. We are very susceptible to a hot-shooting team.

6. Marshall? What a change over the season! Can he continue to be effective?

7. Balance? Parker and Hood have been dominant players and will draw a lot of defensive attention. IMHO (where the H is silent) Quinn, Andre, Rasheed OR Amile must score in double-digits for Duke to win the ACCs.

An ACC Tournament is often about team matchups. Who will Duke play?

8. Clemson may be Duke’s opponent at 9:30 Friday night. We got whipped down there. Toughness in running our offense and grabbing boards will be keys against the defense-oriented Tigers.

9. Georgia Tech and Notre Dame are the other possibilities. Tech (6-12) is an improving team with wins @ Syracuse and against VPI. The return of Anthony Carter is making a big difference, and Tech may well emerge against Notre Dame and Clemson. Tech will be a tough customer: it will be important to take charge early.

10. Saturday Matchup could be #3 Syracuse, which won by 16 @ FSU (wow!) with the return of Jerami Grant (16 and 8), recovering from its late-season swoon. There are no secrets between the Devils and the Orange, and Duke must attack the zone effectively to win.

I will post updates as the Tournament progresses.

[sagegrouse]

For some reason, I can't edit my post (pasted Word file), but the potential Friday matchup should be, in addition to Clemson, Georgia Tech or Boston College, not Notre Dame.

Sage

[Kedsy]

Thanks, Sage. Good rundown of the issues.

I would add: 4.5: The point guard situation. Will Quinn regain his place as our primary PG? If not, can Rasheed get more under control? Can Tyler effectively run the offense? Point guard play is critical in college basketball and seems to be even more important for Coach K's Duke teams. Someone needs to step up.

Also, regarding leadership, I think this has been Jabari's team all season, whether he knew it or not. It's possible our periodic lapses of concentration have come because Jabari either hasn't realized his leadership position or he's forgotten about it in late game situations or he has been hesitant to step up because he's a freshman. That seemed to change last night against UNC, so hopefully he'll put the mantle firmly on his shoulders and assume the responsibility the rest of the way.

[dukelifer]

Thanks, Sage. Good rundown of the issues.

I would add: 4.5: The point guard situation. Will Quinn regain his place as our primary PG? If not, can Rasheed get more under control? Can Tyler effectively run the offense? Point guard play is critical in college basketball and seems to be even more important for Coach K's Duke teams. Someone needs to step up.

Also, regarding leadership, I think this has been Jabari's team all season, whether he knew it or not. It's possible our periodic lapses of concentration have come because Jabari either hasn't realized his leadership position or he's forgotten about it in late game situations or he has been hesitant to step up because he's a freshman. That seemed to change last night against UNC, so hopefully he'll put the mantle firmly on his shoulders and assume the responsibility the rest of the way.
Could not agree more. Duke's success depends on the guard play. Quinn can be great but he has been surprisingly inconsistent. He should be rock at this point in his career. But if he can get on a roll- Duke has a chance.

[Dukehky]

I also like the fact that our rotation is fairly deep at least as far as K goes. Still wouldn't be surprised to see a little Matt Jones in most games to play 2 minutes and just work his butt off on defense. I also think Josh may have earned a couple minutes a game as well from now on do give Jabari maybe a little extra rest right before tv time-outs and the like.

We may not be the favorite in either of the upcoming tournaments, but no one is saying, I hope we get Duke.

In the words of Jake Taylor from Major Leage, "There's only one thing left to do... Win the whole ******* thing."

[SilkyJ]

Also, regarding leadership, I think this has been Jabari's team all season, whether he knew it or not. It's possible our periodic lapses of concentration have come because Jabari either hasn't realized his leadership position or he's forgotten about it in late game situations or he has been hesitant to step up because he's a freshman. That seemed to change last night against UNC, so hopefully he'll put the mantle firmly on his shoulders and assume the responsibility the rest of the way.

This.

Leadership & effective teamwork are such an important part of what differentiate good Duke teams from great ones. Moreover, if you look at all of our great teams (let's just call that final four teams) in the last 15+ they've had a strong senior leader (or leaders) from players who were among the best on the team skillwise:

'99: Langdon
'01: Battier
'04: Duhon
['06: a great team, though they didn't make the FF had JJ and Shelden]
'10: Scheyer

Tyler is a strong leader, a great anchor and communicator on defense, but obviously isn't even in the top 6 for this team offensively. I'm sure I'm not the first to opine that K & Co. recognized this fact and its likely why they made Rodney a captain--he needed one of his best players to be a captain, and the only real option was Rodney since the offense would center around him and Jabari.

But Jabari is really coming into his own, taking control, and everyone seems completely fine with him leading. The way he grabbed Rasheed to get him refocused last night and the way everyone was OK with that speaks volumes to me. One of Rodney or Jabari has to be a leader for this team, and Rodney just doesn't quite have the personality for it yet. Doesn't seem like it comes naturally to him. Jabari on the other hand seems naturally suited to the role and everyone realizes he's the best player on the team.

Given past history with K's teams, I'm hesitant to believe that we can make it to the final four without a senior leader among our top players. That said, if its going to happen, its going to be Jabari that makes it happen. Time to take the reins, Jabari. You're the best player in college, the #1 draft pick, and you've got an incredible supporting cast. Take us on the drive for five.

[Kedsy]

Given past history with K's teams, I'm hesitant to believe that we can make it to the final four without a senior leader among our top players.

1991. Led by sophomores and a junior, with a transcendent freshman. Ups and downs during the season. Seven regular season losses, including three in the ACC season.

You know the rest.

[CDu]

1991. Led by sophomores and a junior, with a transcendent freshman. Ups and downs during the season. Seven regular season losses, including three in the ACC season.

You know the rest.

The one major difference between that team and this (besides defense) is PG play. Which, as you mentioned upthread, is a key issue to watch moving forward. In fact, I think it is our biggest remaining question (as I think we are what we are defensively).

Cook was a borderline-elite PG early this season. He has fallen on hard times in ACC play. Can he bounce back and steer the ship again?

[roywhite]

Also, regarding leadership, I think this has been Jabari's team all season, whether he knew it or not. It's possible our periodic lapses of concentration have come because Jabari either hasn't realized his leadership position or he's forgotten about it in late game situations or he has been hesitant to step up because he's a freshman. That seemed to change last night against UNC, so hopefully he'll put the mantle firmly on his shoulders and assume the responsibility the rest of the way.



But Jabari is really coming into his own, taking control, and everyone seems completely fine with him leading. The way he grabbed Rasheed to get him refocused last night and the way everyone was OK with that speaks volumes to me. One of Rodney or Jabari has to be a leader for this team, and Rodney just doesn't quite have the personality for it yet. Doesn't seem like it comes naturally to him. Jabari on the other hand seems naturally suited to the role and everyone realizes he's the best player on the team.

Given past history with K's teams, I'm hesitant to believe that we can make it to the final four without a senior leader among our top players. That said, if its going to happen, its going to be Jabari that makes it happen. Time to take the reins, Jabari. You're the best player in college, the #1 draft pick, and you've got an incredible supporting cast. Take us on the drive for five.

Another vote for Jabari stepping up as a leader. In one or another of his post-game interviews, I saw him say that he no longer felt like a freshman, and that he had to do all possible to help his team and teammates. A good sign (as was his successful counseling with Rasheed late in the game).

[Newton_14]

The one major difference between that team and this (besides defense) is PG play. Which, as you mentioned upthread, is a key issue to watch moving forward. In fact, I think it is our biggest remaining question (as I think we are what we are defensively).

Cook was a borderline-elite PG early this season. He has fallen on hard times in ACC play. Can he bounce back and steer the ship again?

I said it in another thread, but it's not just PG play. It is guard play on the whole. For all their collective pub, our perimeter guys aside from Hood, just have not played well as a group. In every loss they get outplayed on both ends. They have to play at a high level for this team to have a chance. Which is totally opposite of what every expert, myself included, said coming in. Everyone thought the weakness was in the paint.

I also agree that Leadership is a big deal. Also agree that Jabari established himself last night as "this is now my team and I give the orders on the court". Rasheed may have not liked being pulled away from a ref twice, but he might ought to get used to it moving forward. Same for any other guy. In addition to Jabari, Tyler, Hood, and even Andre need to step up and let their teammates know that mental mistakes are no longer acceptable, and panic is totally banned. If a team makes a run, you man up, get the ball to a dude named Jabari, and get the hell out of the way. Jack up an ill-advised 3, and there will be accountability.

Our defense may or may not let us win anything, but, if the above happens and the perimeter guys play up to their abilities, it may not even come down to that.

[SilkyJ]

1991. Led by sophomores and a junior, with a transcendent freshman. Ups and downs during the season. Seven regular season losses, including three in the ACC season.

You know the rest.

A decent analogy for this year's team (hopefully), but I stand by what I said:

A) Most importantly, in pointing out only the '91 team you help make my point for me in that only 1 out of our 11 final four teams didn't have the type of senior leader I describe.

B) Less importantly, that was 23 years ago. That's why I kept my observation to more recent history (though I just realized I left out the word "years" after "15+"...hopefully you guys picked up on what I was saying). Though obviously where you want to draw the line on "recent history" is a completely subjective and perhaps pointless exercise.

What's really your point tho? Do you disagree/agree with me? You just seem to have picked out a random fact to point out and the analogy is good but not great. Though transcendent, Grant was not the top player on that team, and nowhere near being its leader. Christian (a junior) was far and away the best player and leader.



...if you look at all of our great teams (let's just call that final four teams) in the last 15+ they've had a strong senior leader (or leaders) from players who were among the best on the team skillwise

[Kedsy]

What's really your point tho? Do you disagree/agree with me? You just seem to have picked out a random fact to point out and the analogy is good but not great. Though transcendent, Grant was not the top player on that team, and nowhere near being its leader. Christian (a junior) was far and away the best player and leader.

First off, I didn't realize going back only 15 years was an important part of what you were saying. I figured you just hadn't felt like going back any further and thought I was helping. If that wasn't the case, I apologize.

That aside, I was simply suggesting you don't need to be hesitant to believe we can make it to the Final Four. Most Duke teams have one or more senior leaders who are among the team's best players. The only Duke teams I can remember that didn't have that, going back to 1986, were: 1991, 2002, 2007, 2009, and 2012. Looking at that list, I'd say the 2002 team's problem wasn't a lack of leadership (though maybe it was, who knows), that the 2007 and 2012 teams had enough other problems so that lack of leadership didn't necessarily cause their downfall, and that of the remaining two teams, one of them won the national championship.

I guess, saying it another way, teams usually need a leader, and most often that leader's a senior. I agree with you that it helps a lot if that leader is one of your best players. But if a team doesn't have a senior that's one of its best players, someone else has to step up. If Jabari is stepping up, then maybe that's the problem solved. I don't know that the fact that he's not a senior will stop the team from advancing. That's not saying we'll definitely make it, just that I think having a senior leader is neither necessary nor sufficient to make the Final Four.

[Edouble]

First off, I didn't realize going back only 15 years was an important part of what you were saying. I figured you just hadn't felt like going back any further and thought I was helping. If that wasn't the case, I apologize.

That aside, I was simply suggesting you don't need to be hesitant to believe we can make it to the Final Four. Most Duke teams have one or more senior leaders who are among the team's best players. The only Duke teams I can remember that didn't have that, going back to 1986, were: 1991, 2002, 2007, 2009, and 2012. Looking at that list, I'd say the 2002 team's problem wasn't a lack of leadership (though maybe it was, who knows), that the 2007 and 2012 teams had enough other problems so that lack of leadership didn't necessarily cause their downfall, and that of the remaining two teams, one of them won the national championship.

I guess, saying it another way, teams usually need a leader, and most often that leader's a senior. I agree with you that it helps a lot if that leader is one of your best players. But if a team doesn't have a senior that's one of its best players, someone else has to step up. If Jabari is stepping up, then maybe that's the problem solved. I don't know that the fact that he's not a senior will stop the team from advancing. That's not saying we'll definitely make it, just that I think having a senior leader is neither necessary nor sufficient to make the Final Four.

Obviously not. A fairly recent example is Syracuse 2003, starting three freshman, a sophomore, and a senior, beating the senior heavy Kansas squad for the National Championship.

However, I have no idea what you mean that this has been Jabari's team all season. He was not made a captain, and he really didn't start to emote at all on the court until about halfway through the conference season. In fact, I felt like I didn't really know the guy until this month, if you know what I mean. He was never up. He was never down. Maybe that was his way of leading, a la Trajan Langdon... but either way, I am certainly all for him taking the leadership reigns at this point. The team desperately needs a leader, and we've blown through all of the options we've had... Tyler, Quinn, Rodney, Josh. I'm more than happy to ride Jabari's leadership from here on out.

[Kedsy]

However, I have no idea what you mean that this has been Jabari's team all season.

I mean the players have looked for him to take charge and have taken their cues from him all season. Whether consciously or subconsciously I don't know. I don't even know for sure that it's true, it's just an impression I've had when watching the games.

[kAzE]

This.

Leadership & effective teamwork are such an important part of what differentiate good Duke teams from great ones. Moreover, if you look at all of our great teams (let's just call that final four teams) in the last 15+ they've had a strong senior leader (or leaders) from players who were among the best on the team skillwise:

'99: Langdon
'01: Battier
'04: Duhon
['06: a great team, though they didn't make the FF had JJ and Shelden]
'10: Scheyer

Tyler is a strong leader, a great anchor and communicator on defense, but obviously isn't even in the top 6 for this team offensively. I'm sure I'm not the first to opine that K & Co. recognized this fact and its likely why they made Rodney a captain--he needed one of his best players to be a captain, and the only real option was Rodney since the offense would center around him and Jabari.

But Jabari is really coming into his own, taking control, and everyone seems completely fine with him leading. The way he grabbed Rasheed to get him refocused last night and the way everyone was OK with that speaks volumes to me. One of Rodney or Jabari has to be a leader for this team, and Rodney just doesn't quite have the personality for it yet. Doesn't seem like it comes naturally to him. Jabari on the other hand seems naturally suited to the role and everyone realizes he's the best player on the team.

Given past history with K's teams, I'm hesitant to believe that we can make it to the final four without a senior leader among our top players. That said, if its going to happen, its going to be Jabari that makes it happen. Time to take the reins, Jabari. You're the best player in college, the #1 draft pick, and you've got an incredible supporting cast. Take us on the drive for five.

It's not hard to see where you're coming from, but I think Thornton is more than sufficient as a senior leader regardless of his offensive game, and Hood is basically a Junior in terms of age, so we have plenty of leadership from older players. Plus, Jabari is probably one of the most mature freshman I've ever seen (witness him urging Sulaimon into "next play" mode after a Sulaimon's turnover late in the UNC game), and he will obviously be able to help lead this team with his outstanding offensive abilities on the court.

Plus, I think this team has a strong resemblance (in terms of key contributors not being seniors) to another recent championship squad: 2003 Syracuse.

That team's best player was a freshman (Melo), it's 2nd best player was a sophomore (Hakim Warrick), it's 3rd best player was another freshman (Gerry McNamara). That team had just one contributing upperclassman (senior Kueth Duany), and just one other upperclassman player (junior Jeremy McNeil). So I think don't think Leadership is going to matter at this point. Jabari isn't much of a freshman at this point, and while it's debatable, I believe he's better than Melo.

We can definitely make a run to the final four with this team. It's all going to come down to point guard play, defense, and rebounding. This team could stand to take another leap forward if Cook builds off his performance against UNC continues to play well. The way I see it, he's the major variable in our national title hopes. We pretty much know what we're going to get from everyone else.

f(x + y)^z = Duke's chances in the postseason

x = defense
y= rebounding
z= Quinn Cook

[Troublemaker]

One thing I think is happening is that we have guards that specialize against different defenses.

I suggested in the UNC II pre-game thread that Quinn could have a good game against UNC's perimeter-pressuring man-to-man and that's what happened. Not that this was some great insight, since he played very well in Chapel Hill. It just makes sense. He's the guard with the best handle, best able to drive and kick without turning the ball over against their pressure, and he's a good finisher around the basket. Andre was also able to take advantage of UNC's hard closeouts to drive for some 2-pt buckets. On the other hand, Sheed's handle isn't quite there yet, and Tyler isn't someone you count on to attack pressure. I think against a more relaxed man-to-man defense, the latter two would fare better. In Sheed's case, I think he's fine against pressure as long as the opponent isn't quite as adept as UNC at stripping on drives.

Against zone, I'm less confident at this time with Quinn than the rest of the guards. It's not just about 3-pt shooting percentages, either. There's something happening where the other guards are better at making passes against zone. There was a telling possession in the 2nd half of the UNC game where he was bringing the ball upcourt and diagnosed that UNC had gone 1-3-1 zone. Before crossing halfcourt, he signaled to Sheed to come get the ball, and Duke used Sheed and Rodney out top to orchestrate the passing against the 1-3-1 while Quinn went to the corner. (That possession ended with Sheed skidding a pass through to Amile at the high post who then re-directed to the opposite wing where a wide-open Rodney banged home a three.) In previous games against 2-3 zone, I think Sheed and Tyler were better out top at getting the ball into the high post and the low post. I think Andre is comfortable out there as well, although he's often in the corner against zone.

So as great as it would be to see a couple guards step up and play well in every game, what we may have are specialists instead.

A general comment about the guards. It would make sense to me if Dre's minutes increased, siphoning a bit of playing time from all the other three guards. He's such a great offensive weapon that his contributions there outweigh any defensive lapses. (Plus, he does get some steals on defense.) And I think he's the guard that comes closest to playing well against both man and zone.

[SilkyJ]

First off, I didn't realize going back only 15 years was an important part of what you were saying. I figured you just hadn't felt like going back any further and thought I was helping. If that wasn't the case, I apologize.

That aside, I was simply suggesting you don't need to be hesitant to believe we can make it to the Final Four...

...I think having a senior leader is neither necessary nor sufficient to make the Final Four.

Gotcha, no apologies required, I just wasn't sure what you were trying to point out. Basically, I just disagree as you can probably guess :). I'm hesitant to believe that we can make it to the final four without a senior leader amongst our top players. I think its kinda necessary for us. Its happened once in 30+ years, 1 out of 11 times we've gone to the FF, etc. Basically, the #'s make me hesitant.

K obviously adapts a lot to each team and I don't think there's an exact formula for Duke teams to make the final four. But I do think this one aspect (a senior leader amongst our best players) is a key part of the concoction for our success. That said, I could see this team being an exception. I see a lot of great parts on this team and a transcendent player (stealing your word:)) in Jabari. If he can lift this team onto his shoulders and lead in ways beyond just playing well, we can be a FF team. I'm just skeptical it will actually happen...but I'd love to be surprised!

[Kedsy]

Gotcha, no apologies required, I just wasn't sure what you were trying to point out. Basically, I just disagree as you can probably guess :). I'm hesitant to believe that we can make it to the final four without a senior leader amongst our top players. I think its kinda necessary for us. Its happened once in 30+ years, 1 out of 11 times we've gone to the FF, etc. Basically, the #'s make me hesitant.

K obviously adapts a lot to each team and I don't think there's an exact formula for Duke teams to make the final four. But I do think this one aspect (a senior leader amongst our best players) is a key part of the concoction for our success. That said, I could see this team being an exception. I see a lot of great parts on this team and a transcendent player (stealing your word:)) in Jabari. If he can lift this team onto his shoulders and lead in ways beyond just playing well, we can be a FF team. I'm just skeptical it will actually happen...but I'd love to be surprised!

You may be right. I think it may have held us back so far. I'd point out, though, that while it's true that 10 of 11 of our Final Four teams have had a senior leader that was one of our best players, it's also true that, going back to 1986 (as far as I checked), 13 of our 17 non-Final Four teams have shared that characteristic. And one of those four non-Final Four teams started four juniors who were also the four best players on the team, so in fairness I think that team should be on the "had leaders" side of the ledger board. So if you compare 14 of 17 to 10 of 11, yeah the Final Four side has a higher percentage, but not by that much.

Put another way, it's not "once in 30+ years," it's really once out of four or five, which in my mind isn't so bad.

[Newton_14]

Gotcha, no apologies required, I just wasn't sure what you were trying to point out. Basically, I just disagree as you can probably guess :). I'm hesitant to believe that we can make it to the final four without a senior leader amongst our top players. I think its kinda necessary for us. Its happened once in 30+ years, 1 out of 11 times we've gone to the FF, etc. Basically, the #'s make me hesitant.

K obviously adapts a lot to each team and I don't think there's an exact formula for Duke teams to make the final four. But I do think this one aspect (a senior leader amongst our best players) is a key part of the concoction for our success. That said, I could see this team being an exception. I see a lot of great parts on this team and a transcendent player (stealing your word:)) in Jabari. If he can lift this team onto his shoulders and lead in ways beyond just playing well, we can be a FF team. I'm just skeptical it will actually happen...but I'd love to be surprised!

I am the eternal optimist on the board but I do feel we are a very longshot to make the Final Four and it has absolutely nothing to do with the Wake loss. In conference road games, an upset can easily happen. Same thing with UVA losing at Maryland or worse Syracuse losing at home to BC. UVA and Syracuse can absolutely make the FF.

I am less concerned about the Leadership as you, but agree it is important. I really wish the Jabari we saw Saturday night (the one spinning Rasheed's body around) would have reared his head months ago. That may have prevented the 3 horrible losses, or at least 1 or 2 of them. (ND/Clemson/Wake).

My biggest concerns at this point is guard play, and the staff not making full/best use of talent on hand. Not meaning to slam K or anything close to that. I think the loss of his brother had a huge impact to him personally as well as carrying over into the team. The man is human, with human feelings.

However, that said, part of that last concern was eased a bit in the UNC game. They went back to the line changes, got Quinn, Andre, and Amile back involved, while also obviously emphasizing that Jabari and Rodney are stars and we must get them the ball in their spots as many times as possible. That was very refreshing. I really hope we stick to that plan. It won't happen but I would like to see us start Quinn, Andre, Hood, Jabari, Amile going forward, bringing Tyler, Rasheed, Matt, MP3, Josh off the bench. Maybe due the hockey line thing one time. Group 1 in, then Group 2 in, then Group 1 back in, and from there mix and match, riding hot hands, using situational stuff, etc.

Getting all 10 guys in there early also helps if there is foul trouble or injury later in the game that forces you to play one of the reserves late in a game.

I think we are going to learn quite a bit in the ACC Tournament actually. I can't wait to see them play. If they are cutting down the nets next Sunday Night, my optimism for the Big Dance is going to go way up.

[Wander]

As usual, it's instructive to look at other teams. I mean, do we really think that there's a reason that Coach K needs a senior leader to make the Final Four but Billy Donovan or Brad Stevens don't? We can make the Final Four, and if we don't, it will likely simply have to do with us not being very good on defense.

Also, can we stop listing health at the top of all these phase posts? I think most people understand that if a sports team's important players get injured it's going to be a problem for that team, but that doesn't make us list suspensions, transfers, or Durham getting hit by a meteor in these things.

[Newton_14]

As usual, it's instructive to look at other teams. I mean, do we really think that there's a reason that Coach K needs a senior leader to make the Final Four but Billy Donovan or Brad Stevens don't?

Also, can we stop listing health at the top of all these phase posts? I think most people understand that if a sports team's important players get injured it's going to be a problem for that team, but that doesn't make us list suspensions, transfers, or Durham getting hit by a meteor in these things.
It's a jinx thing. Every time we don't list it first a key player goes down with an injury. Bad omens and all that.

Agree that each team is different and having a strong Sr leader (we actually have one in Tyler) is not a prerequisite for making the FF. Does it help? Sure. Putting the ball in the hole and stopping the other team from doing so matters much more though.

[Troublemaker]

Has Duke improved its 2-pt shooting ability recently?

Check out Duke's 2-pt shooting percentages for the conference season, including the final five games. In each of these 5 games, we shot above the averages the opponent had been allowing for the season and in ACC play. In 4 of the games (not VaTech), we were well above the averages the opponent had been allowing.




Notre Dame
40.0 %


Ga Tech I
48.4 %


Clemson
35.3 %


Virginia
44.4 %


NCSU
52.4 %


Miami
51.6 %


FSU
25.6 %


Pitt
45.5 %


Syracuse I
44.4 %


Wake I
55.6 %


BC
58.3 %


Maryland
43.3 %


GaTech II
40.0 %


UNC I

53.7 %



Syracuse II

59.3 %



Va Tech

48.3 %



Wake II

58.3 %



UNC II

61.8 %




Also, if you break it down between 1st half of ACC season and 2nd half of ACC season:

* Duke shot 42.9% from 2-pt range in the 1st half of the conference season
* Duke shot 53.2% from 2-pt range in the 2nd half of the conference season

It is my belief that Duke has broken out of our 3-pt shooting slump during the second half of the UNC game we just played. If Duke goes back to shooting 3s like we had been AND this 2-pt shooting improvement is accurate and continues, then Duke's offense has never been stronger this season heading into postseason play.

[FerryFor50]

Has Duke improved its 2-pt shooting ability recently?

Check out Duke's 2-pt shooting percentages for the conference season, including the final five games. In each of these 5 games, we shot above the averages the opponent had been allowing for the season and in ACC play. In 4 of the games (not VaTech), we were well above the averages the opponent had been allowing.




Notre Dame

40.0 %



Ga Tech I

48.4 %



Clemson

35.3 %



Virginia

44.4 %



NCSU

52.4 %



Miami

51.6 %



FSU

25.6 %



Pitt

45.5 %



Syracuse I

44.4 %



Wake I

55.6 %



BC

58.3 %



Maryland

43.3 %



GaTech II

40.0 %



UNC I

53.7 %



Syracuse II

59.3 %



Va Tech

48.3 %



Wake II

58.3 %



UNC II

61.8 %




Also, if you break it down between 1st half of ACC season and 2nd half of ACC season:

* Duke shot 42.9% from 2-pt range in the 1st half of the conference season
* Duke shot 53.2% from 2-pt range in the 2nd half of the conference season

It is my belief that Duke has broken out of our 3-pt shooting slump during the second half of the UNC game we just played. If Duke goes back to shooting 3s like we had been AND this 2-pt shooting improvement is accurate, then Duke's offense has never been stronger this season heading into postseason play.

I would not be shocked if the 2pt trend coincided with Jabari Parker shooting fewer threes and jumpers and instead taking it inside more...

[Troublemaker]

Also, if you break it down between 1st half of ACC season and 2nd half of ACC season:

* Duke shot 42.9% from 2-pt range in the 1st half of the conference season
* Duke shot 53.2% from 2-pt range in the 2nd half of the conference season



Note: 1st half of conference season, we shot 130-for-303. 2nd half of conference season, we shot 157-for-295.

[Kedsy]

It is my belief that Duke has broken out of our 3-pt shooting slump during the second half of the UNC game we just played. If Duke goes back to shooting 3s like we had been AND this 2-pt shooting improvement is accurate and continues, then Duke's offense has never been stronger this season heading into postseason play.

I haven't really thought this through before posting, but is it possible the two-point shooting increase and the three-point shooting slump are somehow related? In the 2nd half against UNC, we only attempted 11 two-point shots, and made 6, which comes out to a 54.5%, which is good but a decent amount less than we shot on twos in the first half. And it was only 11 shots.

[Troublemaker]

I would not be shocked if the 2pt trend coincided with Jabari Parker shooting fewer threes and jumpers and instead taking it inside more...

Yes, Jabari definitely has a part in this. Looking at his game log (http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/jabari-parker-1/gamelog/2014/), Jabari started going inside more with the NCSU game but did not finish inside all that well until midseason in conference when he started to finish inside REALLY well.

[sagegrouse]

Also, can we stop listing health at the top of all these phase posts? I think most people understand that if a sports team's important players get injured it's going to be a problem for that team, but that doesn't make us list suspensions, transfers, or Durham getting hit by a meteor in these things.

Wander -- When you prepare a Phase report (you'd be really good at it), you can leave out "1. Health." I'm not gonna take the blame if someone gets hurt.

Kindly,
Sage

[Troublemaker]

I haven't really thought this through before posting, but is it possible the two-point shooting increase and the three-point shooting slump are somehow related? In the 2nd half against UNC, we only attempted 11 two-point shots, and made 6, which comes out to a 54.5%, which is good but a decent amount less than we shot on twos in the first half. And it was only 11 shots.

I've thought something similar. My theory is the slump forced us to get better at 2-pt shooting out of necessity over the course of the past 7 games. I think if the slump is over, it doesn't necessarily mean 2-pt shooting will go back down again. I believe we have a chance to keep the gains made in 2-pt shooting during a difficult time for our outside shooting AND COMBINE that with a returned-to-normal outside shooting. Then we'll really be scary.

I could be wrong. It's something to keep track of during the ACC tournament.

[Troublemaker]

Updating our 2-pt % progress through the ACC tourney... there were some mixed results to say the least.

Against Clemson, we shot 45.2% from 2-pt range, which is better than the 35.3% we did against them the first time. BUT, I still felt we left some finishes on the table that we need to convert.

Against NCSU, we shot a tremendous 61.0%, up from the 52.4% we shot against them the first time.

Against UVA, however, 2-pt shooting was a huge problem. We only shot 32.7%, down from the 44.4% we made against them the first time.

Hopefully the bigger takeaway from the UVA game was that we were so willing to go inside (i.e. we consider that a strength of ours now) and not that we ended up shooting so poorly from there. Watching the postgame presser, Duke definitely felt like we should've finished better around the rim, and I'm inclined to agree. UVA is terrific defending at the rim, but we can do better. I think there may have been some "big game jitters" affecting some of our conversions in the paint. Especially Rodney, who is so good at backing down into the midpost for a short shot. That's his shot and he missed 3 or 4 of them. As a fan, I can only hope that this is a learning experience for our guys and that the next time we play a top 5 team in a big game, we finish better. Hopefully, we get the opportunity. Gotta beat Mercer first.