Survivor: Brains, Braun, Beauty

[Udaman]

You know, I've always suspected that (at least part of) Survivor is fixed. Just too many things happening that seem too good to be true, and the seasons turning out in ways that are best for television and seem unrealistic to truly happen in that setting.

Those feelings have never been stronger than after the first two hours of the new season. I get voting out the Miami Marlin guy (though it was a dumb move), but the 2nd vote literally made no sense at all. None. You have a woman who is AWFUL in the challenges. Not just a zero, but an absolute negative. She's not physically strong, and she did as poor a job as has ever been done in a puzzle challenge on the show - and it wasn't even close. And she's a nuclear engineer? She seems unstable, and (sadly) kind of a stereotype that Survivor seems to throw out there a lot, of the "crazy person of color."

So she's cost her tribe two challenges, starts crying in the middle of the challenge, and then once she realizes she's about to go home dumps all of their food into the fire......and a supposedly intelligent lawyer decides it would be better to be in an alliance with her and another person who thus far has done nothing at all (physically or mentally) rather than with the two strongest members of the tribe. It defies logic.

if this were later in the game, then maybe, MAYBE I could see it. You make the moves thinking that you'll keep the crazy person around for a while because nobody will vote for her, and she's not a threat to anyone at all. But this early? I mean it's truly the dumbest move I have ever seen anyone make on this show - and that is saying something. Sadly, it makes my respect for the show go down as well, because it seems to be staged (let's keep the unstable person on for a while, because, you know, that's good TV). Also, you know that this means the crazy person will be on for a while. They'll have the next challenge so that the Brain team can beat at least some other team, so nobody goes home. That will likely happen 2 weeks from now as well, and then they will merge the tribes and again the crazy person stays. Again, the real bummer for me is that a completely undeserving person gets to stay on the show - and a person that nobody would ever trust, or want to be around, or has any respect for, gets to stay over an incredibly fit person who you could blindside later with little to no trouble.

If this season keeps up like this, it could be my last - which is a shame because I love this show.

[JasonEvans]

I don't care whether it was engineered or not, I loved seeing that @#^@&! David Samson get the boot. He is a lying scoundrel in real life and no amount of public embarrassment and ridicule is too much for him. I guess I would not have minded if he had stuck around a bit longer and been shown to be a deceitful, horrible human being but getting booted first will just have to do in place of that kind of shame.

The "brains" tribe is not very brainy, that's for sure. Hard to root for anyone in that bunch. I do put a lot of the blame on Garrett, who tried to control things too much and let it all spin out of control as a result. I can't really fathom how Kass and Tasha could decided to keep J'Tia around, but they may have figured that once they got rid of her, they would never be able to regain control of the tribe. I think the wiser course of action would have been to approach Spencer and get him on board with booting J'Tia and then booting Garrett. It sure looked like Spencer was no fan of Garrett's so-called "strategic" moves.

It is still too early to tell if this will be a good or bad season. I am liking Cliff Robinson so far and can see why other members of his tribe are gravitating toward him. He is the perfect person to align yourself with as he can never, ever win the money (everyone on the show knows he is a multimillionaire former NBA star) and he is also likely to be a challenge demon. Plus, I like looking at him towering over the other competitors.

-Jason "Tony lying about being a police officer makes no sense to me -- most people would consider police to be trustworthy and honest" Evans

[Blue in the Face]

The "brains" tribe is not very brainy, that's for sure. Hard to root for anyone in that bunch. I do put a lot of the blame on Garrett, who tried to control things too much and let it all spin out of control as a result. I can't really fathom how Kass and Tasha could decided to keep J'Tia around, but they may have figured that once they got rid of her, they would never be able to regain control of the tribe.
If you watched just that group's airtime, with no indication of which tribe they were (and references to their professions edited out), it would be very confusing. They're not unusually attractive, nor are they all big and strong, so beauty and brawn seem out, but they can't possibly be the brains tribe. I know, Survivor is a contrived situation, people behave very differently than in real life, real life smarts don't even necessarily apply, and of course it's highly edited, but still.... And I think given three guesses, brains would be pretty universally the third for which tribe Garrett was on.

[weezie]

Ryan Braun is on the show?

[JasonEvans]

Typical Survivor non-drama.

There are 6 people in the tribe. 4 want to vote one way, 2 another. The 2 seem convinced they can get one of the four on their side! Ooooh, what will happen?

Duuuh! If you flip one of the four you only get to a 3-3 tie. No one is going to voluntarily leave a majority group to join a group where there will only be a tie. Tie votes are to be avoided at all costs (purple rock!!). Buh-bye, Brice.

On a side note, J'Tia is making a run at worst Survivor player of all time. Her ineptitude in challenges combined with her tantrum rice burning makes her a strong "worst ever" contender. And then she cries like a baby when they come in 2nd in a challenge (one that she did her best to blow). Please get rid of her soon!

I do like how sneaky Tony is being, finding hidden clues and making up stories about conspiracies, but I think it will come back to bite him in the butt very, very soon. At some point someone is going to figure out how much he is lying and it will all collapse in on him. And I am still divided on how much lying is ok from a moral standpoint. I mean, I know you are playing a game and that lying is a huge part of winning, but it sorta feels like his "true blue police promises" should carry a bit of extra weight. I just know that if I was a friend of his back home, I'd feel kinda sleazy watching him blatantly lie and manipulate people while throwing his own honor under the bus.

-Jason "I hope Spencer can escape the idiots brains tribe and make the merge in decent position. I think he is a smart player. He figured out that maze puzzle really well" Evans

[Udaman]

Yep - last Thursday was one of those "We have to make drama out of nothing." There was no way a 4-2 alliance person was going to switch. Now, if it's 3-2, then there are all kinds of reasons you might switch. But never from 4-2. Ever.

J'Tia is truly, truly awful. And even though I know it was just "talk," it made no sense to me at the beginning of the episode why the women in the Brains would say "OK, the women are the alliance, if we lose Garrett goes next." I mean, for a lawyer to think and say that is just nuts. J'Tia is awful in the challenges, has no strength at all, seems to be pretty unstable, and Garrett is exactly the opposite. If you vote out J'Tia, you still have the numbers in a 3 person tribe, and you give yourself a chance to win.

We are now down to 15. After next week's episode, I would be stunned if they don't merge into 2 tribes of 7.

[JasonEvans]

Color me shocked that the Brawn tribe has so masterfully fallen under the spell of Tony. I mean, all it takes is Sarah actually asking Cliff why he is campaigning against her and it all falls a apart. But, Sarah is so captivated by Tony "swearing on his badge" that she has fallen for him hook, line, and sinker. Tony is the new Russell Hanz! If he wasn't campaigning against Cliff (who I like), I would really love him! I can't imagine how Sarah must feel sitting at home and watching Tony talk about how he is deceiving her. She must feel like a total fool. She sure looks like one on TV.

Speaking of Cliff, he was a total boss in the basket shooting competition. Even with half of his tribe trying to throw the thing, his jumper was as smooth as it ever was in the NBA. I feel so awful for Spencer, who had to do everything for his totally lame tribe. Had they not had J'Tia screwing things up left and right, he might have even gotten that last ball in the hoop ahead of Cliff.

But, J'Tia did what she does best -- blow it in spectacular fashion. They had to vote her out and I think all the hesitation about "if we merge, we will need her on our side" was just a ploy for the cameras. They could not keep her around any longer. They probably should have gotten rid of her 2 weeks ago.

Is there anything as lame as her performance in the blindfold challenge? They gave her the easiest, least important role and she still screwed it up again and again. Watching her trying to put the flag on the lift for like 2 minutes was hysterical. She must know she deserved to be sent packing. She goes down as one of the worst players in history.

So, next week we will get a tribal shuffle that will probably end with two tribes of 7 players each. It will be interesting to see if things break along gender lines or if the ability to perform in challenges will matter in the new tribes. I suspect the remaining women of the brains tribe as well as Morgan may be in trouble next week.

-Jason "being labelled with 'brains' could be a bad thing when a tribal shuffle happens as folks will be concerned that you will be overly strategic" Evans

[JasonEvans]

First of all, for anyone who has not noticed, Survivor is (for the first time ever) beating American Idol during the 8pm hour on Wednesdays in the key 25-49 demo. Now, this is not because of some rating resurgence by Survivor, it is more due to stinky Idol continuing to sink lower and lower, but it still means Survivor is winning Wednesdays, which is a big deal.

As for the show itself, I am baffled by the stupidity of some players. I cannot fathom why Tony and Trish were so desperate to get rid of Cliff. It makes no sense whatsoever. I suppose I understand Trish, because she appears to just be a dumb player, but Tony is rather strategic. I don't get how he came up with the decision to get rid of Cliff.

Lets talk about numbers for a moment -- because numbers are 100% what matters in Survivor. Coming in to last night's episode, the three original tribes were left with the following: Brains 3, Beauty 5, Brawn 6. If you were a member of the Brawn tribe, your absolute priority should be keeping your lead over the other two. The best case scenario is that you manage to reach the merge with all 6 members of Brawn still around and only 4 or 5 combined total members of the other tribes. Do that and you are all but assured of reaching the end stages of the game (provided you have not alienated anyone on your tribe).

So, what do Tony and Trish do? They take out one of their own to put them in a tie with Beauty. WHAAAT?!?!?! Are you insane?!?! There is tons of time to take out Cliff later in the game. Heck, you had your tribe all ready to do it last week but Brains were so bad at challenges, you could not even throw your challenge well enough to get it done. The best part is that Cliff and Lindsey seemed oblivious to the fact that they were outside the core alliance, meaning you could have kept them around for a while doing your bidding and then remove them from the game. Sigh... I cannot stress how foolish last night's vote was.

http://cdn.survivorfandom.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/survivor-2014-s28-aparri-tony-cliff-lindsey.jpg

All that said, it is worth noting that unbeknownst to Trish and Tony, Beauty is busy tearing itself apart over on the other tribe. Everyone is approaching the Brains trio to form a new alliance. As a result, I suspect we will see a Beauty person voted out as soon as the other tribe heads to tribal council. This would have the effect of putting Brawn back in the numbers lead. But, if Sarah somehow gets the boot instead, it could be disastrous for Brawn.

Lastly, I want to hearken back to the moment at the beginning of the episode when the 3 Brainiacs were sitting around the fire and they said, "This can be the final 3... we just need to beat everyone on two other tribes to get there." I won't be at all surprised if there was a good bit of foreshadowing in that comment. The Brainiacs seem to have bonded and are clearly in a position of power in their new tribe. Brawn and Beauty are both self-destructing. It is not at all hard to find scenarios where the Brainiacs (combined with some fractions of Beauty) control the numbers in this game post-merge.

-Jason "shaping up to be a compelling season..." Evans

[DukeCrow]

Yes, it was an incredibly dumb move on Tony's part. Completely agree. I also didn't understand why LJ didn't play his idol. Maybe it was just the edit that made the vote seem up in the air, but LJ could have GUARANTEED Cliff going home if he had played the idol. If I'm LJ, I use the idol no matter what simply because strategically it made no sense for Tony to vote Cliff out. Why would you trust someone to do something that makes no sense?

But it worked out for LJ, so not playing the idol ended up being the better move -- even if only in hindsight.

[Udaman]

Fun episode last week. I have to say, I'm actually really enjoying this season. There are a bunch of characters you can either root for (LJ, Spencer, Woo, Kass) or root against (Tony and Trish mainly). So random thoughts:

1) Tony has played a masterful game....and yet he hasn't. He's been brilliantly tactical - especially the move with the immunity clue that they "gave" to Jeremiah, and how it worked perfectly to make the other tribe doubt Jeremiah. And then he's done things that seem insanely stupid - telling people he had lied to them about his job, yelling Final Five when they don't have the numbers, etc.

2) Really odd with Lindsey just quitting. Seemed kind of forced. Must have been a lot they didn't show.

3) Really like LJ, and Woo, and Spencer.

4) They've hardly shown Morgan or Tasha, which makes me think they might go far.

So now we have the 6-5 merged episode, where one person is the true swing vote, and it's Sarah. She clearly didn't like Tony going Final 5......but my money is on the idea of her flipping back to Tony's tribe. She trusts him and has the police bond. Throw in the both Tony and LJ (though nobody knows it) both have idols, and the current group of 6 looks to be in trouble.

That said, I have hope that this might be the first time that a 6-5 majority doesn't simply play out with the 5 people getting voted off. I think that the 3 Brains are smart enough to go after LJ and Woo, to knock off Tony, Sarah and Trish - all of whom are really strong.

I think this group has some memorable people who will definitely be back (could see Tony and Trish on a future Villain tribe and Spencer and LJ and Woo on a heroes tribe, or any of them on an All-Star tribe.

[mr. synellinden]

That said, I have hope that this might be the first time that a 6-5 majority doesn't simply play out with the 5 people getting voted off.


SPOILERS ...







Well, your wish was granted, but I don't know if anyone could have seen that coming. To go from being the swing vote and in a relative position of power to being voted out is pretty embarrassing. And with the amount of times they showed Sarah talking about her power (President Sarah?), it was a pretty good indication that she was going to get hers somehow. There are so many aspects of that tribal council to analyze, including Kass's decision (the idiocy of which was expressed eloquently by Spencer at Tribal Council), Tony's disclosure of the idol (I would have preferred him saying he had it, not showing it - then playing it after), and LJ's decision to play his idol for Tony (which may have been the dumbest move of all).

First, Kass. Why? She cannot win a jury vote at this point. Period. If she dislikes Sarah that much, just be patient and bite your tongue and vote her out next week when you have a 6-4 advantage. After all that the brains tribe suffered, for three of them to make it to the merge in a position of power with the Final 3 easily in sight, for her to jump ship is so disappointing and absolutely idiotic. I actually hope she makes the final 3 now so the jury can take turns shredding her.

Tony. I like that Tony is willing to make bold moves and always is thinking about strategic game play, but I think he overthought this one and acted impulsively. I think he might have been bursting a little bit to show his idol - hey, look at me, none of you knew I had this. Now what are you all going to do? The problem was, the group of 6 did have a plan B, and if Kass hadn't been a moron, he would have wasted his idol using it that way instead of bringing it out after the vote and hoping he was the target. And it turned out he was the target and that would have been a very cool Tribal Council moment. Of course, even in that scenario, it only makes the game 5-5 (so it's not as good as a flip), but that is much better than 6-4.

Finally, why did LJ waste his idol? If he was paying attention, it was clear the group of 6 was switching their vote away from Tony - although I guess it might not have been clear in the heat of the moment. But it seemed pretty obvious they were changing their vote away from Tony. Maybe LJ got caught up in the showmanship and wanted just to show that hey, he had one too. But I have no idea what he was thinking.

I guess you can say that the good news for the Tony-Jefra-LJ-Woo-Trish is that they got the flip they needed, and if they play smart it won't matter as much that they don't have two idols. But I have a feeling Tony and/or LJ may regret not having their idols when it gets down to final 6 or 5. I think there is a good chance Kass goes to the end now because she can't win a jury vote. I see this playing out with Tony-Trish-Kass and Jefra-LJ-Woo being mini-alliances of 3 - the six of them will take out 3 of the other 4 before that final 7 becomes a 3-3 and a swing vote (either Morgan, Spencer, Tash or Jeremiah).

Any thoughts on what the "special" idol could be?

[Blue in the Face]

SPOILERS ...
First, Kass. Why? She cannot win a jury vote at this point. Period. If she dislikes Sarah that much, just be patient and bite your tongue and vote her out next week when you have a 6-4 advantage. After all that the brains tribe suffered, for three of them to make it to the merge in a position of power with the Final 3 easily in sight, for her to jump ship is so disappointing and absolutely idiotic. I actually hope she makes the final 3 now so the jury can take turns shredding her.
On top of all of that, after Sarah had insisted there was no way anyone had an idol, her position of influence in that alliance would be pretty much gone. She'd lose her power with the group, so the whole reason Kass wanted to dump her was pretty much gone at that point.


Finally, why did LJ waste his idol? If he was paying attention, it was clear the group of 6 was switching their vote away from Tony - although I guess it might not have been clear in the heat of the moment. But it seemed pretty obvious they were changing their vote away from Tony. Maybe LJ got caught up in the showmanship and wanted just to show that hey, he had one too. But I have no idea what he was thinking.
I actually thought that was a good idea, because I thought (wrongly, obviously), that the other group was trying to be clever, and was going to keep the vote on Tony. So when LJ made that play, I was thinking (also wrongly) that all the stuff with Kass was typical Survivor teasing and she was still with the group, so once he played the 2nd idol I thought the group of 6 was screwed. As it turned out, they weren't.... Except that they were....

[DU82]

A couple of things...

After Tony played the HII for LJ, the brains were smirking, indicating that brawn missed the intended target. I think LJ saw that, figured that the only "strong male" left was Tony and that the talk to switch votes was a bluff and they were going to stick with Tony, and covered his butt (paraphrasing him). Of course, the brains went for Jefra instead, which was a great move. But I still think LJ made a decent move.

Kass was probably at the bottom of her group already (no surprise, she's very annoying around camp, while Sarah was actually fairly well liked), according to post-boot interviews. So it wasn't as far-fetched as it was edited. But I'm not sure there's anybody left that she could beat at the final 2 or 3, so Spencer's comment was spot on. (Of course, that was probably true before the vote.)

Tony makes some "interesting" moves, but he really loves playing the game, and that makes viewing fun as well.

I'm really enjoying this season. Nice to see new players playing the game, rather than returnees mugging for camera time.

[DukieInKansas]

Ryan Braun is on the show?


It isn't beauty and brains vs appliances? ;-)

[JasonEvans]

Sorry, I have been meaning to post for a few days...

I must say, there was some delicious just desserts in Sarah getting voted out. Not just for her gloating the whole episode about how much in charge she was, not just for her totally believing Tony earlier this season when he played her, not just for her lame "I won't sear on my badge" silliness that betrayed her true allegiance, but for the absolute stupidest part of her game play... the moment she guaranteed to her alliance that Tony did not have an idol. How does she know if he has an idol? Does she suddenly think Tony will tell her anything about his game after she has clearly rebuffed his advances to re-join the Brawn alliance? The moment Tony displayed his idol at tribal council, Sarah was either an idiot or a liar. Either way, she was totally untrustworthy and deserved to go home. I would have flipped on her at that point if I had been Kass...

...or not! I 100% agree that Kass should have waited a week to take Sarah out. Why rush and endanger your place in the game? Really dumb!

That said, I am hardly convinced that Kass has made herself an impossible winner. There is still time to build new alliances and repair the feelings from her betrayal. Of course, doing so merely puts the game in a 5-5 situation, which hardly ensures the side she is voting with will vote out whoever they want. Still, I suppose there may be some scenarios where she is able to engender favor with enough jury members to win... though it may be a longshot.

I also want to point out that Spencer needs to control his mouth. The moment his side got blindsided by Kass' flip is not the moment to tell Kass that she has lost all your votes on the jury. Spencer needs to find at least one and hopefully two new allies. So, rather than lash out at Kass, the better move is to try to win her back to your side. She did not abandon all of you, she merely hated Sarah. That said, I can forgive Spencer for a comment made in the moment just after being betrayed by your oldest ally in the game.

So, thanks to all this craziness, there are now 4 original Beauty tribe members left in the game, more than the 3 Brawn and the 3 Brains. I don't think they can find it in themselves to band together, but I think there is little chance the current alliance (Tony, Trish, Kass, Woo, Jefra, and LJ) sticks together.

Finally, what on Earth was up with Woo getting to use toe-shoes in that challenge? I am 100% certain those shoes helped his ability to keep his feet gripped to that piece of wood in the challenge. Now, I think the ending -- where they were balancing at the top -- was probably not affected by the toe-shoes, but it still seemed like an unfair advantage earlier in the challenge. I wonder if this will come into play in other challenges. I really like Woo and hope he goes far so I won't complain too much.

-Jason "I think LJ and Jefra are in really good position. Hard for me to see any alliance coming together to control the game that does not include them" Evans

[JasonEvans]

A couple more things to add...

The big fight between Kass and Sarah was about who to vote out. Sarah wanted Tony gone (why?!?!) but KJass was pushing for Jefra. So, when Tony showed his idol and the tribe switched targets who were they voting out? Jefra! So, Kass could have gotten her wish. Instead, she took out one of her allies. This makes zero sense!

I suspect there was something more going on -- Sarah is a police officer and Kass is a lawyer. Lawyers and cops have a fairly well-defined way of working together in real life. Lawyers who are prosecutors get info from the cops and then use it the way they want. Prosecutors sometimes feel that cops make their job more difficult when the cops get sloppy. If you are a lawyer who does some defense work, cops are your enemy and you likely feel that you cannot trust them.

I know I am generalizing and that there are many cops and lawyers who gets along wonderfully, but I have to wonder if a bit of the rift between Kass and Sarah was not a cop-lawyer rift/class struggle being played out on Survivor. Kass was not used to a cop dictating terms (Sarah - "here is who the alliance should vote for. I am in charge!") and Kass rebelled against that.

Just a theory (probably one which will inspire all kinds of angry responses... sorry).

-Jason "it is nice seeing newbies playing this game. Ratings are doing well this season too" Evans

[Udaman]

Sigh. I'm more and more convinced this show is (at least partially) rigged. There was no reason AT ALL for Kass to flip to the other side. None. She had the numbers in 6-5. She had a mini-alliance of 3 with the Brain Tribe (meaning they were in a great position). She had fleshed out an idol (not even meaning to) which in the process had made Sarah look like an idiot, and she was going to get out the person that she initially wanted. And......by flipping, she absolutely 100% ensured that she could not win - because the jury will almost certainly be the five former members of her tribe that she just 100% stabbed in the back.

Throw in that with the group she switched to she is absolutely in the 6th slot (which she likely would not have been before), and it makes zero sense....except for the clear fact that the tribe of 5 is much, much, much more enjoyable to see on TV with Woo and Tony and LJ and Trish.

And now we have not much fun for the next few weeks, because Tess will never flip back (doing so would be idiotically stupid because at best she's at 5-5 if she moves back and then guaranteed the first to go if her old tribe ever gets the numbers). So unless they win individual immunity, the next to go are Spencer, Morgan, Tasha and Jeremiah. Then Tess gets the boot, and then it gets real for the last 5 to figure out who the final 3 are.

I agree that it's very likely Jefra makes the final 3, which is a real fault in this game, because she's done basically nothing except to do basically nothing. I would guess at some point they will target Tony and Woo, but both of them are really strong and can likely win immunity awards as well.

All that said, it was great watching Sarah go down in flames after she got insanely cocky. Unfortunately it was also easy to see. Survivor likes to give you misdirection, just as it likes to make it seem like those in the minority might have a chance of actually getting people to flip to their side, when in fact they never do. At some point we'll see what's left of the underdogs go and talk to LJ and Jefra arguing that if they flip then they can vote out Tony, Woo and Trish (by far three of the strongest), and the show will make it seem like they might do it, but then they won't...

Sigh.

[JasonEvans]

Before I get to last night's action, one more quick comment on Kass' stupidity last week.

I understand that she did not like Sarah and that she felt her tribe was disrespecting her by listening so much to Sarah. I get that. But Survivor is about having the numbers and where you stand within those numbers. That is what really matters. The only time a flip makes sense is when you feel threatened in your alliance and you can improve your position by going to a different alliance.

But, Kass did not improve her position... at all. She went from being in a 6 person alliance (position within said alliance, uncertain) to being in a 6 person alliance where she is clearly, undoubtedly the bottom of the alliance. Tony has been screaming "final 5!!" from the rooftops (so much that he alienated his previous best friend in the game, Sarah) and yet Kass goes to join them to be #6 in their 6-person voting block?!?! What was she thinking?!!?!

I'll add one more thing -- as I opined a couple weeks ago, I think that if she had stuck with her original group, the three Brains were going to end up as the most likely final 3. They were in very solid control of that alliance and could have easily engineered the ouster of Sarah, Morgan, and Jeremiah when the game moved along a little bit. Kass' path to the final 3 was all but assured... and she threw it away to be #6 in a rival alliance that is so tight, she can't possibly penetrate it. So dumb!!!

Ok, now for this week's episode...

If last week was really just about Kass getting rid of someone she hated, Sarah, there was absolutely a way for her to get back in with her original alliance and regain control of the game. Tony, Trish, and the rest of the alliance told her they were targeting Morgan. Well, when Kass was talking to Spencer about rejoining his side, she could have told Spencer that Morgan was the person getting the votes. Spencer, with his idol, could have used that to protect Morgan and we would have seen Tony voted out instead. Viola, Kass is back in with her old Brain allies (along with Jeremiah and Morgan) and they once again have the numbers to control the game to the end. Plus, Kass would be a highly valued member of the alliance as she provided them with the info and votes to regain control.

But, she took the foolish way out and again went with the other group. I will say that there is a possibility that Kass gets taken to the end, but only because everyone hates her and does not admire her game. Her chances of winning are pretty much zero. I am amazed that someone purporting to be a smart lawyer is playing this game so foolishly.

-Jason "that immunity challenge was impressive... they stood there for an hour and a half... I would have wilted, for sure!" Evans

[DU82]

There's still a good path for the brains (plus Jeremiah) to wind up as the final four, and Kass/Spencer as the final two.

We're at 5-3-1 (Kass as "free agent")

Tony succeeds in blindsiding Woo, 4-3-1

Kass flips on Tony, dumping him, 3-4

Pagong the rest of the brawns (plus the lovely Jefra, who I think is doing more behind the scenes than we see.)

At 4, either Jeremiah or Tash goes, whichever doesn't win immunity. (They have to go because either would be an easy winner.)

At 3, the other goes, leaving Kass and Spencer, just as they've planned it all along. :-)

Spencer's regular idol and the super-charged one that's supposedly still out there help them out.

[JustAFan]

Well, when Kass was talking to Spencer about rejoining his side, she could have told Spencer that Morgan was the person getting the votes. Spencer, with his idol, could have used that to protect Morgan and we would have seen Tony voted out instead. Viola, Kass is back in with her old Brain allies (along with Jeremiah and Morgan) and they once again have the numbers to control the game to the end. Plus, Kass would be a highly valued member of the alliance as she provided them with the info and votes to regain control.

-Jason "that immunity challenge was impressive... they stood there for an hour and a half... I would have wilted, for sure!" Evans

I thought the same thing, that if Spencer could convince Kass to return to his alliance, then he could regain the numbers advantage by giving his immunity idol to Morgan and voting out Tony. But any hope for that plan was lost when Morgan spoke during Tribal Council. Once she started with the line that "I don't have to do as much because I am cute", it was obvious there was no way that she would be saved. She was already out the door and CBS just provided some entertaining editing by letting us hear her world view. I think that attitude was more evident behind the scenes that we did not see, which made Kass talk about Morgan as an "old dog you just keep around" and Tony calling her "either a pillow or a person". By targeting Morgan, the Tony alliance virtually assured that nobody would save her with an idol. She must have really gotten on everyone's nerves.

Also, I don't think Spencer would have wasted his idol on just the word from Kass that she would vote with him. He just got burned by Kass in last Tribal. Trusting her this time would be harder. Putting his immunity idol on the line would be a huge risk, especially how hard he fought to find that idol!

[JasonEvans]

Tony succeeds in blindsiding Woo, 4-3-1
Kass flips on Tony, dumping him, 3-4
...
Spencer's regular idol and the super-charged one that's supposedly still out there help them out.

Just so we are clear, the only way to get from the 4-3-1 scenario to the 3-4 scenario is via an idol because Kass flipping after Woo is knocked out would only make things 4-4. To break the tie at that point, you either need to get lucky or use an idol.

As an aside, I read that the super-charged idol (http://www.realityblurred.com/realitytv/archives/survivor_cagayan/2014_Feb_25_tyler-perry-idol) will be one that can be used after the votes are read -- which would be hugely powerful. An idol like that not only makes you invulnerable, but it potentially makes everyone in your alliance invulnerable as well... provided it makes sense for you to use it on them.

We have seen idols like this twice in the history of Survivor. In Panama, Terry Dietz had one of these idols and was a threat to use it at any time. But, he kept on winning individual immunity challenges, like 5 in a row, and never needed to use it for himself. He never bothered to use it for one of his alliance-mates, as they were always so outnumbered that it would not have helped. The idol ended up being unused. It was also in play in Cook Islands when the super-powerful idol was foul by Yul Kwan. He was in a dominant alliance with Ozzie and a few other characters (Johnathan Penner too) and never needed to use his idol either, eventually winning the whole thing. But, I recall the idol having a real impact on the game because no one even considered voting out Yul or turning on him. It eliminated some of the drama from the season.

I sorta hope no one finds that idol this year. It is too powerful and would change the complexion of the game quite a bit.

-Jason "I think the previews showing Tony wanting to take out Woo are misdirection. In the end, we will see the continued Pagonging of Tasha, Spencer, or Jeremiah" Evans

[DU82]

Just so we are clear, the only way to get from the 4-3-1 scenario to the 3-4 scenario is via an idol because Kass flipping after Woo is knocked out would only make things 4-4. To break the tie at that point, you either need to get lucky or use an idol.

Yep. Kass can turn on Tony by knowing who they're voting for, and Spencer can then use the "normal" idol.



As an aside, I read that the super-charged idol (http://www.realityblurred.com/realitytv/archives/survivor_cagayan/2014_Feb_25_tyler-perry-idol) will be one that can be used after the votes are read -- which would be hugely powerful. An idol like that not only makes you invulnerable, but it potentially makes everyone in your alliance invulnerable as well... provided it makes sense for you to use it on them.

We have seen idols like this twice in the history of Survivor. In Panama, Terry Dietz had one of these idols and was a threat to use it at any time. But, he kept on winning individual immunity challenges, like 5 in a row, and never needed to use it for himself. He never bothered to use it for one of his alliance-mates, as they were always so outnumbered that it would not have helped. The idol ended up being unused. It was also in play in Cook Islands when the super-powerful idol was foul by Yul Kwan. He was in a dominant alliance with Ozzie and a few other characters (Johnathan Penner too) and never needed to use his idol either, eventually winning the whole thing. But, I recall the idol having a real impact on the game because no one even considered voting out Yul or turning on him. It eliminated some of the drama from the season.

I sorta hope no one finds that idol this year. It is too powerful and would change the complexion of the game quite a bit.

-Jason "I think the previews showing Tony wanting to take out Woo are misdirection. In the end, we will see the continued Pagonging of Tasha, Spencer, or Jeremiah" Evans



Other than Yul's turning on his bigger alliance to advance, the idol did suck the drama out. Then again, the usual Pagonging is the worst part of any season. This one's been better primarily because the three tribes eliminates some of the big alliances, allowing some smaller alliances to rule. Such as the brains before Kass turned to the dark side, I mean joined with Tony.

[Udaman]

JE - you're right that Kass had the chance to flip back and didn't. It was a dumb move on her part, because now it's 6-3 and she can't just flip by herself and get the numbers. If they took out Tony, then it's 4-4 with Trish, Woo, LJ and Jefra against Spencer, Kass, Tasha and Jerimiah.

What she really needs to do now is somehow convince LJ and Jefra to vote out Tony or Woo (given how strong they are), and then move with her to the other group. Not sure if they would do that, but it's her best play.

I must admit, I really like pretty much everyone left (not personally, but like their game). I think Spencer is a great hero (and will be back on Survivor again). So will Tony. And Trish. And maybe even Kass.

I could see a Final three of Tony, Trish and someone else. I do think it will be hard for Spencer to make it, though. He's clearly a challenge threat. Next week they could split the vote and force him to play his idol which is what I'm guessing they do. Then as soon as he doesn't win he's toast. Too bad because he's great.

[Udaman]

Now that was great! I love it when Survivor doesn't go as I thought it would. A few things to say:

1) Tony is going down as one of the most conniving/savvy players ever. He's basically Russell without everyone hating him. The way he played JT to be the first one to actually mention "should we vote off Woo," was just brilliant. Trish seemed to see through that, and was clearly surprised by how Tony voted....but he got Woo to do just what he thought he would. All that said, I think it was a bad decision. The tight alliance isn't tight anymore. I think Trish will (and should be) nervous about how well Tony is playing and how sneaky/smart he's been. Throw in the Jefra has to be shocked, and Kass is a wild card to say the least, and we finally have a situation where anything can happen down the stretch.

2) Glad that Spencer stuck around. It was risky for him not to play his idol, which makes me think he must have known that Tony was going to take out JT, or at least been really, really certain. I loved the fist punch he did when JT was voted out. He's in a great situation right now. It's still 5-3 on the surface, but if he could get one more person to move over then he could play his idol and smoke someone on the other side. Plus he's strong at the challenges. I really like pulling for him, and I think he's going to last at least until the Final 5. I think that anyone other than Kass and Jefra could win this thing.

3) The Immunity Challenge was skewed to the brains. How can you not realize that the ONLY way to win at that is to do some kind of word association. I think last night for the last one I came up with Yas Gave Pam Black Bananas While Buying Gas (or something like that). If you try to remember the color patterns, you are toast.

4) Spoiler from the preview. It looks like Woo fell a pretty decent way from the tree. Would not be surprised if he's out of the game. If that happens, then suddenly Tony and his group is in huge, huge trouble, which may be why he was scrambling so hard to find the idol.

5) Really good season of Survivor thus far, I must say.

[gurufrisbee]

I love Survivor, but I'm hating this season. Tony is the only who is actually playing. Almost everyone else does nothing at else but sit around and wait for something to happen to them. The Brains tribe was the most pathetically incompetent tribe in the history of the show - and it turns out Spencer and Tasha are decent competitors. The Beauties have literally done nothing the entire game but sit around and wait to get picked off. Kass made one big move, but it was a dumb move (going to the bottom of a tribe that didn't really want you) for a dumb reason (she didn't like Sarah). Bleh.

[JasonEvans]

It feels like Tony and Spencer are the stars of this season and they are both compelling characters. I think it has been a good season thus far, though I agree that there have not been a lot of smart moves.

So, Tony found the super idol that does not have to be used until after the votes have been counted. That is huge, huge, huge and should all but assure him of reaching the end of the game. I don't think I can come up with a scenario where Tony does not make it to the final four (when idols lose their power) because any effort to get him out must succeed TWICE for him to actually leave the game. In fact, he can use the idol to assure himself of at least the final five right now.

1) This week, with 7 players left, he tells everyone that he found an idol and he plans to use it to ensure no one plots anything against him. That would prevent folks from actually voting against him so he would be safe. But, at the last minute, he does not use it saying he feels safe.

2) Next week, with 6 players left, if he gets voted out he plays the idol to stick around one more week. That automatically puts him at final 5.

I see that as his worst case scenario. If he gets individual immunity or if he is not targeted for being voted out then he is sitting pretty. Tony is going to the end... and will be a strong candidate to win it all.

-Jason "Tony has betrayed some members of the jury -- even though Spencer says he admires Tony's game play, LJ and Sarah were certainly betrayed by him. He won't be a slamdunk winner" Evans

[DU82]

Since he showed the idol at the last TC, he's going to have to explain that to at least some of the others. If Kass and Trish feel betrayed any, the could vote, with Jefra, for Tony. Tony andWoo would likely vote for Spencer/Tasha, whoever doesn't win immunity. Spencer and Tasha would vote for, say, Woo. Tonys votes don't count, there's a tie and a revote. On the revote the women vote for whichever brain is doomed. That flushes the idol this week, leaving the alliance on even footing for next week.

That would take Trish and Kass voting. Since both appear to be willing to take Tony to the end as a goat, they may not see the need to flush out the super idol. (Not saying that Tony is a goat, but the two think he is.)

Of course, there's a good chance that Spencer's idol has been re-hidden, and somebody could find it, sending things up for grabs again.

[Blue in the Face]

So, Tony found the super idol that does not have to be used until after the votes have been counted. That is huge, huge, huge and should all but assure him of reaching the end of the game. I don't think I can come up with a scenario where Tony does not make it to the final four (when idols lose their power) because any effort to get him out must succeed TWICE for him to actually leave the game. In fact, he can use the idol to assure himself of at least the final five right now.

I don't remember the precise rules, can Tony pass his idol after the votes are read? If Spencer had given his idol to Jeremiah, could Tony have waited to see who they'd voted for, and then given it to Woo. Or if he waits, can he still use it, but only for himself at that point?

[gurufrisbee]

I thought I remembered Tony reading the note and it saying you couldn't transfer that idol.

Tony is going to be able to cruise to the finals it seems, but after that idol gets used to save him, the remaining players are going to have to see that he's played WAY harder and better than any of them and what Spencer said is exactly right - he'll win in the end simply because the jury will have to see he is the only one who has been playing.

My guess is it will come down to whether Tony can still make the final jury AFTER that special idol isn't protecting him anymore.

[JasonEvans]

The super idol cannot be passed to anyone. That was made very clear. It can be used post-vote, but can't be passed.

I agree that Tony is going to have a very compelling jury case of being the player who controlled the game but juries are so unpredictable. Some vote for deserving players and some vote for players who did not backstab them. You can never tell if you are going to get a logical jury or a vengeful/emotional one. If we have a logical jury, then Tony is darn close to being a lock to win at this point.

-Jason "I would love to see Spencer and/or Tasha make it to the end against Tony as I think they might have a shot, but I think they are the next two to go" Evans

[cf-62]

The super idol cannot be passed to anyone. That was made very clear. It can be used post-vote, but can't be passed.

I agree that Tony is going to have a very compelling jury case of being the player who controlled the game but juries are so unpredictable. Some vote for deserving players and some vote for players who did not backstab them. You can never tell if you are going to get a logical jury or a vengeful/emotional one. If we have a logical jury, then Tony is darn close to being a lock to win at this point.

-Jason "I would love to see Spencer and/or Tasha make it to the end against Tony as I think they might have a shot, but I think they are the next two to go" Evans

The "usual" winner is the last remaining member of the out-numbered alliance at the merge, IF he or she can make it to the final tribal council. Unless something interesting happens at 7, that person would be Kass, but there is NO WAY the other members of the remaining Brain / Beauty tribe will give her a vote, so she's out. If Spencer can survive, he has the most legitimate shot of beating Tony. Interestingly, I find Tony to be one of the most annoying players in Survivor history -- and I LIKED Russell Hanz from his first devious minute on screen. And I liked Boston Rob (though his first season - Vanuatu - I thought he was making ridiculous moves early). And I liked Amazon Rob, who told a different lie to EVERYBODY every three days.

So obviously I like devious players, but something about Tony rubs me the wrong way.

He has a problem, though. He's told some lies that could haunt him if outed at final tribal. It's one thing to get blind-sided. It's another to feel betrayed after committing yourself to a person or cause.

[Udaman]

Definitely enjoying this season....but I said it before, I'll say it again - I'm more and more convinced that Survivor is rigged.....or at least partially rigged. You're telling me that the guy with the most dramatics (Tony), who clearly would be in trouble very soon based on all that he's done, just randomly comes across a tree in their area, and digs up a (pretty well) hidden immunity idol that is the strongest thing we've seen in 15 seasons, in that you can play it after the vote is read? That just doesn't happen randomly. Either someone steered him in that direction, or flat out told him to look there.

And I like Tony, but he was clearly about to be in trouble after the remaining 3 were voted out, and now he's beyond safe.

For me the saddest part is that Spencer is not long for the game. Next time he doesn't win immunity, he's out. And he's probably my favorite player.

The last few weeks have also just consistently reminded me what a dumb, dumb move Kass made. She won't get past the final 5. No chance. Even if somehow some of them start saying "let's take her to the Final 3 since she won't get any votes," she still won't get any votes.

Had she stayed with the other group, it was her, Spencer and Tasha in pretty much complete control. She could have even worked a blindside of Spencer to end his chances. Her move was so dumb. Kind of like Cochran's a few years back when he got out of his alliance and then was the first to go in the group once the minority group were all taken out.

Tony is an absolute lock for the Final 4. Absolute. I would guess the Final 3 will be Tony, either Woo or Trish (likely both) and if not, then one of them, and either Jefra or Kass. If Tony makes the final 3 he wins. Period. I think most people are kind of sick of Woo (based on Spencer's comments when he wrote his name down). Trish has rubbed everyone the wrong way, and Jefra and Kass haven't done anything except pick the right alliance. Tony would have Spencer, Tasha, Kass and almost certainly Sarah (from one cop to another). That's enough.

And he should win. Other than Spencer he's played the best game, by far.

[JasonEvans]

If Tony could engineer exactly who he wanted to sit next to, I think it would be Kass and Trish. Kass is stupid and everyone in the minority blames her for flipping on them and taking them out. Trish rubs a lot of folks the wrong way and would be seen as someone who sat by and let Tony rule the game. I suppose Kass, as a "smart" lawyer, might be able to make strong arguments to the jury, but I suspect Tony would still win fairly comfortably.

The one thing that could backfire on Tony would be if he gets too obsessed with engineering his perfect final 3 and turns on his allies too soon. But, with that special idol in his pocket, it would take a lot to keep him out of the final 4. I believe all idols lose their power when you get to the final four. At that point, Tony could be quite vulnerable, especially if he is seen as a sure-fire winner if he reaches the jury.

As an aside, if the show really wanted to fix things, then they would have given Spencer the special idol as that would have really shaken the game. Giving it to Tony, who seems to be somewhat in control, doesn't do nearly as much for drama and uncertainty.

-Jason "I could not be rooting harder for Spencer and Tasha at this point -- but I think it is futile" Evans

[JasonEvans]

No sooner does the guy get another idol, does Tony turn into the guy trying to lose. He could just cruise into the final with his 5 person alliance (most of whom feel utterly undeserving of the million) but he just has to go and make enemies by breaking up the alliance. Tony, what are you thinking?!!?

Make no mistake, I like that he did it from a viewer standpoint. He kept the very likeable Spencer and Tasha alive, which I am all for, but I cannot figure out how this helps his end play. He has now alienated former alliance-mates Jefra, LJ, and Sarah. Kass is clearly sick of his antics and I suspect Trish is not happy with him either. What I don't get is why he was all worried about a female alliance? He has got 2 idols, 1 of which can be played after the votes are ready!! He is as safe as anyone ever has been in the history of the game. Even if the females banded together after taking out Spencer, Tony is safe for a minimum of 2 votes, probably more than that if he plays his idols right.

But, god bless him, he is making the game fun. I hope they blindside him next week and he is forced to use the special idol. That would really shake up the game and create a crazy tribal council.

Oh, and I really, really hate Kass. Her mocking of Spencer was waay over the line. She cannot win this game, her social game is terrible and she has backstabbed too many people. No one respects or likes her. She may make the end as cannon fodder for the jury, but she ain't winning. I hope she reads this message and knows that most of America knows what a horrible person she is!

-Jason "still rooting for Spencer, but it is just hard to see how he makes it to the end without going on a challenge streak" Evans

[Udaman]

Actually, if he truly thought the girls might form an alliance then it was the smart play. Let's say they had....then if spencer is voted out next week the girls vote 2-2 for tony and woo and one goes out or he has to use both of his idols which he wouldn't want to do (and if he did would mean the next week one of them goes out). So it wasn't a bad play.

Of course there wasn't that alliance and now trish and Kass are livid and could join with spencer and tash to do the same thing. Will they? I doubt it because they know that if either of spencer or Tasha make the final 3 then they will win. Then again they also
Know that tony has an idol and this is their last chance to force it out.

Bottom line is that I have no idea what happens the next 2 episodes and that's great. Plus spencer is still alive which is also great.

[JasonEvans]

Survivor: "Ooooh look! The dominant alliance is tearing itself apart. People are feuding and vowing to vote against each other. This is going to result in a shocking tribal council."

Audience: "Wow, this sure is excit... wait a second... (looks at watch)... the episode has only been on for ten minutes. There is no way they keep this up for the whole hour. Ahh, this is all a smokescreen. The shouting match between Kass and Tony will soon wear off and they will team up to vote out a real threat."

Yup, that is exactly what happened. While I can see how Woo might temporarily have the wool pulled over his eyes and agree to team up with Spencer and Tasha (and Kass) there was no way Kass would go that direction in the end because Spencer and Tasha are soooo well-liked on the jury. Teaming up with them is a formula to come in third... and nobody plays for third place.

So, now we are down to Spencer versus the alliance of 4. Spencer must win two more immunity challenges or he is toast. They cannot go to the end with him. He has been fabulous in challenges so far. I hope he makes it.

Tony is a lock for the final 4 thanks to his idol cache. What's more, he can seem magnanimous by giving his non-special idol to someone else at the next tribal council. That could be a good way to earn extra jury votes and seem like a good guy. No one needs to know that he has a special idol in his back pocket, he can merely look like a good guy.

Unless he goes up against Spencer, I think Tony is probably going to win, but you can never predict how angry and vengeful the jury will be. It is possible that Woo, who has been a nice guy and not offended anyone, could be the pick of a bitter jury, but I sorta doubt it. It does not feel like he has been enough of a character for him to be the winner. Survivor would allow us to get to know him more, see more of his strategy and confessional revelations, if he was the eventual winner. Same with Trish (who is a mean and cruel as Jerri Manthey every time we see her on screen). Trish has been worthless in challenges too, and I suspect the jury won't want to reward her.

So, that leaves Kass. She has been getting a fairly prominent edit lately. She has been one of the main characters this season and her moves have shaped the game at times. I think she seems to be reasonably smart and thinks on her feet well so she may be good at playing for votes when they face the jury. Her legal training will most certainly come in handy there. I thought she had no chance for a while but I am starting to change my tune.

I still think Tony is the most likely winner. I'd put the odds this way:

Tony 40%
Spencer 25% (I think that's about the odds of him winning two immunities in a row)
Kass 18%
Woo 15%
Trish 3%

-Jason "Well, two weeks left... we will see what comes next" Evans

[mkirsh]

Unless he goes up against Spencer, I think Tony is probably going to win, but you can never predict how angry and vengeful the jury will be.

I'm always wrong about this, but I don't anticipate this being a vengeful jury. It seems that the current cast is full of hard core Survivor fans who appreciate the game, and when they have been voted out or even blindsided everyone has handled that graciously. I also think Tony has been playing his same game from the beginning and everyone knows what to expect from him, which is part of the reason they keep welcoming him back in when he doesn't tell him what he is doing. Despite over-playing at times I think he is the most deserving winner, with Spencer second most for hanging in against the numbers so long. Kass's only chance to win is to try to paint her strange flip-flops as part of a larger strategy, but I think she is going to have hard time getting respect from the jury, especially if Spencer is at Ponderosa telling everyone else that Kass is just playing by the seat of her pants. Overall good season and I could see many of these folks back at some point for a second go around.

[JasonEvans]

I'm always wrong about this, but I don't anticipate this being a vengeful jury. It seems that the current cast is full of hard core Survivor fans who appreciate the game, and when they have been voted out or even blindsided everyone has handled that graciously. I also think Tony has been playing his same game from the beginning and everyone knows what to expect from him, which is part of the reason they keep welcoming him back in when he doesn't tell him what he is doing. Despite over-playing at times I think he is the most deserving winner, with Spencer second most for hanging in against the numbers so long. Kass's only chance to win is to try to paint her strange flip-flops as part of a larger strategy, but I think she is going to have hard time getting respect from the jury, especially if Spencer is at Ponderosa telling everyone else that Kass is just playing by the seat of her pants. Overall good season and I could see many of these folks back at some point for a second go around.

Are you saying you think Tony would even beat Spencer in a jury vote? I think Spencer's accomplishments in challenges combined with what has been a fairly strong social game would carry a lot of weight. What's more, he has been about as strategic as he possibly could be given his numbers disadvantage. Most of the jury has come to tribal council multiple times expecting him to be voted out and yet he sticks around every time. If he can navigate his way to the end, I have to think he would present a great case to the jury (he thinks well on his feet and is clearly a smart guy) and would be very hard to beat.

-Jason "I want to see Woo at the end, if only to see him answer the questions about how many times he seemed utterly clueless to what was going on around him" Evans

[mkirsh]

Are you saying you think Tony would even beat Spencer in a jury vote? I think Spencer's accomplishments in challenges combined with what has been a fairly strong social game would carry a lot of weight. What's more, he has been about as strategic as he possibly could be given his numbers disadvantage. Most of the jury has come to tribal council multiple times expecting him to be voted out and yet he sticks around every time. If he can navigate his way to the end, I have to think he would present a great case to the jury (he thinks well on his feet and is clearly a smart guy) and would be very hard to beat.

-Jason "I want to see Woo at the end, if only to see him answer the questions about how many times he seemed utterly clueless to what was going on around him" Evans

Spencer would crush Tony in a jury vote, as he will have somehow made it to the end despite being on the wrong end of the numbers all game (some due to bad luck, but some due to Kass flipping on him) and without backstabbing anyone in his alliance. I'm also rooting for Spencer to win. My comment on Tony being more deserving was more about up to this point I think he has played a better game than Spencer, given that his is in control of his alliance, has 2 idols, and has the best shot of being there in the end. I'm also coloring my opinion somewhat by thinking Spencer has very little chance to get to the final 3; if he somehow manages to pull that off that offsets some of Tony's dominance to date and I would think Spencer more worthy. Convoluted logic I admit but just wanted to recognize that behind all the craziness, paranoia, and bravado, I think Tony is playing a great game.

[JasonEvans]

just wanted to recognize that behind all the craziness, paranoia, and bravado, I think Tony is playing a great game.

Totally agree. He has done something that I consider so brilliant -- he was in a large alliance (6 people) and he has managed to whittle it down to just 4 people by using folks outside the alliance when he needs them. I won' be entirely shocked if he does that again this coming week to take out Kass (I think Tony really wants to be up against easily manipulated follower Woo and undeserving coaster Trish at the end). Rather than waiting for the alliance to turn on itself, he has engineered those ousters and it feels like he has done it in a way that hasn't completely turned off the jury. That takes some skill.

-Jason "Tony, Spencer, Tasha, and maybe Kass are all potential 'All-Star' players in future seasons" Evans

[gurufrisbee]

I think this is actually going to be a VERY vengeful jury - especially if certain people make the finals.

Tony seems like a lock to make the finals and while LJ has been asleep the entire game he certainly can't be happy that a guy he used on idol on and was faithful to backstabbed him. And Jefra will DEFINITELY be mad at Tony for backstabbing her.

If Tony and Kass are not both there, there will be a lot of vengence between them, too.

And Kass has a lot of people who will be very mad at her. Remember when they merged their side had the numbers and she flipped because she is stupid and doesn't like Sarah's personality, but in doing so she MASSIVELY killed the chances of winning for Spencer, Tasha, Jeremiah, Sarah, and Morgan. No one is more responsible for all five of them not getting to the final than Kass.

[DukeCrow]

Any idea why Tony voted out Trish instead of giving her the hidden immunity idol and taking out Kass? I guess he values having Kass in the final 3 more than having an ally in the final 4?

[Udaman]

Clearly they edited something out because Tony voting out Trish was never mentioned at all. And for the life of me I don't get it. He must have thought that Spencer, Kass and Woo would turn on him, but that's crazy. Everyone knows that if Spencer makes the Final 3 (without Tony) he wins and most would likely say they would much rather have Tony because he's made so many people angry. Tony could have had Trish and Kass and now doesn't. It won't matter, I don't think, if Spencer isn't there. But still....just a head scratcher.

I'm really pulling for Tony and Spencer in the final 3. I think the vote would be super close. Both will definitely play Survivor again.

[JasonEvans]

Clearly they edited something out because Tony voting out Trish was never mentioned at all. And for the life of me I don't get it. He must have thought that Spencer, Kass and Woo would turn on him, but that's crazy.

Woo must have told Tony that he was taking out Trish and Tony went along with them on it. I don't think he wanted them to feel like he was not a part of their group. Being on the "2" side of a 3-2 vote usually means you are the next target and Tony wanted to avoid that at all costs. But, how can he be afraid of that because everyone has to target Spencer in the next vote if they want to win, don't they?

All I know is we are now guaranteed to have a final with 3 of:


Spencer - played super hard, very strategic and smart, likeable. Appears near-certain to win a vote if he makes the final.
Tony - dominated the game and very deserving, but not loved by all the folks he voted out.
Woo - nice guy that everyone likes but also a competitor in challenges. Not much of a strategist or a leader. Could be the choice of a vengeful jury.
Kass - not liked but smart and able to think on her feet. A lawyer who could try to charm the jury.


That makes the final really hard to predict and really hard to win. As others have noted, it did not have to be this way. Tony could have given his idol to Trish and still been safe (thanks to the special idol) and taken out Kass instead. Trish would have been seen as unlikeable and a hanger-on by the jury and would have had no chance in a vote.

The only thing I can think of is that Tony is desperate to convince everyone that his special idol still works at the final 4 so they do not target him in the next vote. If he was forced to use the special idol last night (if he was tricked and they voted him out instead of Trish) then his "idol extension plan" goes out the window.

By the way, it is worth noting that we just added one more person to the jury who is sitting there after Tony wrote down their name. Trish was toast whether Tony voted for her or for Kass (3-2 or 4-1, who cares?) but Tony's vote could mean that she feels like he stabbed her in the back. She can go complain about Tony to the three or four other folks on the jury who were backstabbed by him.

Should be a fun finale next week! This has turned out to be a pretty strong season thanks to Spencer and Tony. I agree, they are certain all-stars in the future.

-Jason "Trish did look like Skelator last night when arguing with Kass... freaky!" Evans

[Udaman]

JE - I think you are right about Tony, in that Woo must have told him what was happening and Tony decided to vote with him. What that vote absolutely guaranteed is the following:

1) Kass will make the Final 3. Period. Nobody is voting her out because nobody thinks she will get any votes.

2) Woo will make the Final 3. Period. In the end it's going to be Spencer and Tony trying to convince Woo and Kass that if they take the other with them, that person will win. So let's look at the scenarios

a) Tony wins immunity. Spencer will sell like crazy that "Tony has played the best game, and he has my vote for sure if you put me on the jury." He will also argue that he deserves to make the Final 3 given how hard he's played, and that for once in Survivor the Final 4 should reward someone for that. Won't matter. Because Woo and Kass will be Final 3 (and thus make more money) and they know that Spencer has been a machine at the challenges and fought super hard and will get all the votes. They will vote him out without hesitation (though Survivor will show them hemming and hawing). Spencer simply must win to make the Final 3.

b) Spencer wins immunity. Now Tony's only chance will be to go to Woo and argue that Kass doesn't deserve to make the Final 3, and that he's always had Woo's back. But then Spencer will argue like mad that if Tony makes the finals he will win, and he'll likely convince Woo to vote him out. Kass will want him out as well, because she knows she has no chance of beating both Spencer and Tony. Tony could try to convince them that his special idol can still be played.....but I doubt that would work.

c) Woo wins immunity. Note, there is no scenario D where Kass wins, because she's been absolutely useless in challenges. If Woo wins, it basically goes back to scenario A. They all know that Spencer will win a jury vote. The other thing to note is that they have shown Kass several times say something like "I don't know. Tony has made a lot of enemies on the jury. I think people might not be too thrilled to vote for him." That's her ONLY chance. She knows that. There is no way at all she puts Spencer in the Final 3 over Tony. None.

So, the only chance is for Spencer to win immunity, which he can do. All depends on the kind of immunity challenge. Sadly, I think what will happen to him is what happened to Malcolm. He'll lose, be bummed, and then be voted out because everyone knows how much he is respected. Same thing that happened to Ozzie. Those three players are very similar. Nice people, who dominate challenges, are well respected, and simply too dangerous to make it to the Final 3 unless they win their way there.

As for final Jury votes....JE, here's where I disagree with you - neither Woo or Kass have a chance of winning. None at all. In fact, I would guess that neither gets more than a single vote, if that.

The 6 that got burned by Kass flipping absolutely despise her for that move. It wasn't strategic at all - she had the numbers. It was vindictive and selfish. She gets none of their votes. She certainly won't get the vote of Trish. That leaves only LJ or Jefra. Maybe she gets one of their votes. Maybe.

Woo - hasn't done anything, really, except align himself with Tony. He only won a single immunity challenge. He never won a reward challenge. He's kind of spacey. He had chances to make big moves and he never did. As you said, his only chance is to get sympathy votes, but given that Tony's not purely hated like Russell was, I just don't see that happening. If it does, it will be a major bummer.

Tony - if he's up against Woo and Kass, then Tony for certain has the votes of Spencer, Tasha, Jeremiah and Morgan. None of them would have any reason to vote for Woo or Kass. I'm nearly certain that Trish would vote for him as well, and even Sarah. Yeah, he voted Trish out, but she clearly always liked him and will reward how well he played the game. And Sarah had already switched to a new alliance after the merge. You can't fault Tony for that. That's 4 votes for certain, and almost certainly 5, and likely even 6. Could LJ and Tasha both vote for Woo? I guess. But I bet one of them would still reward Tony for the game he played.

If it's Spencer versus Woo and Kass, then Spencer gets every vote.

The only truly fun thing would be Spencer and Tony in the finals. Then, I think Spencer wins due to the spite votes. He would definitely get the votes of Tasha, Morgan and Jeremiah. Tony would probably get Woo and Trish. He might get Sarah as well. That leaves LJ and Jefra. I think both of them would vote for Spencer....and maybe even Sarah as well.

But that's all moot because THERE IS NO WAY SPENCER AND TONY MAKE THE FINAL 3. None.

[DukeCrow]

Just to throw something out there. There is a rumor going around that this season is going to have a final 2 instead of a final 3. No idea how the rumor got started or if it has any substance, but that could throw a big wrench in everyone's plan if it comes to fruition.

[mr. synellinden]

Just to throw something out there. There is a rumor going around that this season is going to have a final 2 instead of a final 3. No idea how the rumor got started or if it has any substance, but that could throw a big wrench in everyone's plan if it comes to fruition.

I'm not sure that's such a rumor in the sense that the finale usually starts with 5 players and this one will start with 4. For a two hour show, they have to have 2 eliminations, so I can't see this being anything other than a 2 person final TC. And I'll say it's about time. I have never understood the 3 person final TC, especially when they had 9 people on the jury and there was a risk of a 3-3-3 vote or 4-4-1 vote. Even with an 8 person jury, you could have a 3-3-2 or 4-4-0 vote. The best part of the 2 person final is that the winner of the final immunity challenge gets to decide who he or she wants to sit next to at the last TC. Colby gave away a million dollars with that decision.

This brings up a bigger issue that I've always had with Survivor - if you are playing a game, you have to know the rules. So if it turns out that there's a 2 person final TC, and the players have thought all along it's 3, I think that's unfair. There is so much strategy involved that if you don't know the number of people on the jury (i.e., how many votes you need) and how many people at the final TC, you can't really ever know if you are using the right strategy. It's like playing a basketball game and not knowing how much time is left on the clock.

[JasonEvans]

Just to throw something out there. There is a rumor going around that this season is going to have a final 2 instead of a final 3. No idea how the rumor got started or if it has any substance, but that could throw a big wrench in everyone's plan if it comes to fruition.

That would be cool and I suppose it could happen. The jury questioning always seems stilted and shortened because there is generally one person in the final 3 who is totally undeserving and I hate that we waste jury time talking to them. We all know they are not winning so why bother?!?! I mean, have we ever had the third place person even get a jury vote at the end?!?

One thing to add to Udaman's insightful post about the various scenarios -- we will inevitably hear the person who has immunity debate "do I take the most deserving person or the person I feel I can beat?" They have this debate every year and, with the singular exception of Colby taking Tina to the end and handing her a million bucks in the process, it always ends up with the deserving person sitting on the jury and the schlub in the final 3. So, I fully expect someone to spend the next episode debating whether to take Tony/Spencer or Kass to the end of the game. They will hem and haw and talk about how undeserving Kass is. They will point out how the honorable thing would be to take Tony/Spencer to the end and how great it would be to match up against the best and still win!

And then we will see Kass in the finals. This will happen... mark it down.

-Jason "I do want to point out that even though he has only won one challenge, it feels like Woo has been very competitive in many of the challenges" Evans

[DukeCrow]

-Jason "I do want to point out that even though he has only won one challenge, it feels like Woo has been very competitive in many of the challenges" Evans

Not only that, but he could argue that he played an honorable game, made a strong alliance and stayed with it, and only turned on his alliance when he absolutely had to make a big move to ensure his place in the finals.

[gurufrisbee]

On the commercial for the final episode it does say "three tribal councils", which would seem to imply one to get down to three, one to get down to two, and then the final one. And other seasons they have had the final two hours start with five contestants, so it seems like two hours of show is enough to eliminate two others and have a final tribal.

It would be really funny though if they did go to a final two, because reportedly the reason they started going to final three's, was that they felt too often it ended up as one clear choice and one goat and the final TC stunk because everyone knew who would win. Yet here you have two terrific players and two of the weakest players EVER and a very good chance your final two TC will be as bad as ever in being lopsided.

If it is a final two, that's bad for Spencer. While there is always a good chance people will do something stupid, I do think they all realize that if Spencer makes the final TC, he wins. But that means he HAS to win the challenges- and if that's two more, that's twice as hard for him then.

If he does win them though, it gets a little interesting in seeing what happens then. Kass is stupid and thinks everyone hates Tony as much as she does, which is false. She thinks he is good for her to go up against in the finals, but she's been living in her own delusional world too long - NO ONE is good for her to go up against. Tony thinks Kass is good to go up against in the finals and he is spot on about that. So the obvious choice then is to vote out Woo, but it would require those two working together, which is a stretch. Spencer, for his part, does recognize Tony is a much bigger threat in the end, so he'll probably jump in and direct the vote that way. Woo will sit there with a dumb look on his face and wait to be told what to do, as usual.

A final two or three that included both Tony and Spencer would be the only one with even a little voting interest in it. It's extremely unlikely to happen.

The worst of all possibly scenarios is that it is a final two and somehow Kass and Woo get there. This is, of course, the only chance either of them has at winning the game. But in this case, then it becomes the train wreck final TC where the jury just anihilates them both. Woo has won almost nothing and done almost nothing the entire game. They'll ask him why he deserves to win and twenty minutes later his answer will be "It would be cool, dude" Then they'll ask Kass and she'll smugly look at them and say "I'm smarter than all of you. I always was. I've been dominating the game the entire time. Give me the money, you idiots".

[mph]

I'm surprised no one has posted since the finale. There were a lot of good twists and turns last night. First, Kass rockets through a puzzle to complete a huge come-from-behind victory and secure her place in the final 3, effectively eliminating Spencer. Then Woo wins the closest final challenge I can remember to secure his place in the final two. Woo's a guaranteed millionaire, right? Wrong. In one of the all-time boneheaded Survivor decisions, Woo does the "honorable" thing and brings Tony to the final vote. To cap it all off, we get a great Survivor jury speech when Spencer turns to the jury and makes an impassioned argument for Tony. Spencer's speech destroyed any logical case for Woo. If you voted for Woo after Spencer's speech, it was out of hatred of Tony. Period.

I think the studio show made it clear that Woo realized he made a horrible miscalculation in taking Tony. Woo can say whatever he wants about having no regrets, but I think Jeff was right when he said Woo looked despondent. He seemed to honestly believed that the jury would reward his loyalty or that they would view taking Tony as respect for the integrity of the game. After hearing the jury vent their spleen on Tony and then STILL vote for him, Woo had to realize he never had a chance. Poor Woo. He never showed a lick of strategic awareness throughout the game, but I'll admit that I thought he would never vote out the person he couldn't possibly lose to in order to take the person he couldn't possible beat.

Finally, I know its wrong, but I'll admit that I enjoyed people constantly calling Kass one of the biggest goats in survivor history. It's amazing that she thinks she had a chance against either Tony or Woo.

[JasonEvans]

I did a writeup of the finale for the Wall St Journal's entertainment blog (http://blogs.wsj.com/speakeasy/2014/05/21/survivor-season-finale-recap-its-do-or-die/). This is what I wrote as I watched the jury:


Tony and Woo finally face the jury. Tony starts by apologizing for voting everyone out. That is important because once the jury starts talking, it is clear that they are mad at all of Tony’s backstabbing. Jefra confronts him and asks him to own all his devious moves, which Tony somewhat struggles to do. Not good! Now is the time to be contrite, not defensive. Though some jury members compliment Woo for having the guts to take Tony to the end (and they also seem glad that hated Kass is not there), the questions are all about Tony and how many lies he told. It feels like anyone who votes for Woo is actually voting against Tony. The highlight is Trish and Jeremiah just eviscerating Tony for swearing on his family and then breaking those swears. It appears there is no way Tony can win… and then Spencer speaks. He destroys Woo for just following Tony the whole time. Spencer turns to the jury and appeals to them to vote for the person who honored the game and played it the best, Tony. If Tony wins, he better give Spencer a big cut of that million dollars!

I can't believe they didn't bring up Spencer's appeal during the post-game show! How could Jeff Probst just leave that hanging? We watched 8 jury members come hard at Tony one after another and then Spencer turned the whole thing on its head. I really want to hear if Spencer's speech caused anyone to flip their vote. Instead, we get Jeff asking everyone whether they would have voted for Kass (not a single person indicates they would have picked her), Jeff pimping out Tyler Perry's TV show, and Jeff talking endlessly about a letter he wrote to Spencer that we never get to read on air?!?! Come on!!!!

This was a great season precisely because they did not go for gimmicks... so what does Survivor plan to do next? Back to a gimmick -- Blood vs Water #2 with relatives and (I am sure) Redemption Island challenges that change the entire dynamic of what it means to be voted out (not to mention diluting the impact of the conclusion of each week's show). Sigh.

I fully expect Spencer to be a returning player the next time they do an all-star edition. By the way, for the first time in several seasons they did not have a $100k Sprint Fan Favorite award this season. Poor Spencer -- he was snakebit all season long and would have won the fan fave award in a landslide but they didn't do it. I feel for that kid! He just can't catch a break.

-Jason "Blood vs Water in the fall will not be with returning players -- it will just be new players" Evans

[Deslok]

Looking back, you wonder how Woo feels knowing that a) had he chosen to boot Tony he would have won $1 million and b) had he been 1 second slower on the challenge, he would have won $1 million. Think about that, because he won the challenge(and was then an idiot), he lost a million dollars, because Kass certainly would have taken Woo with her to the end instead of Tony. But it made for a good finale, with a worthy winner in a season that was great to watch for the gameplay, both good and bad.

[JasonEvans]

... had he been 1 second slower on the challenge, he would have won $1 million. Think about that, because he won the challenge(and was then an idiot), he lost a million dollars, because Kass certainly would have taken Woo with her to the end instead of Tony.

FWIW, I think Kass would be been tremendously effective arguing to the jury. She is a lawyer and appears to be a good bit smarter than Woo. It is clear from the voting that the jury was receptive to the "I earned my way here" argument and that voting for the person they liked the best was not their top priority. Kass certainly could claim to be someone who played the game and impacted the results far more than Woo did. She made big moves, Woo did not. And had Kass won the final challenge in dramatic come-from-behind fashion, that would have given her back to back challenge wins at the most important moment of the game. The jury would have given her some respect for that.

I bet Spencer and perhaps Tasha would have voted for Kass out of respect for her game play. Tony might have as well. Remember that LJ and Jefra were taken out in blindsides that Woo participated in but Kass had nothing to do with. There is no way Trish votes for her, but there are plenty of other votes that could have been up for grabs. While it was easy for everyone to dramatically say, "I would have voted for Woo," when asked about it during the reunion special, I think the final vote would have been a lot closer than some suspect had it been Woo versus Kass.

-Jason "I am glad it wasn't Woo versus Kass though, as it would have felt like a very weak final two" Evans

[cf-62]

FWIW, I think Kass would be been tremendously effective arguing to the jury. She is a lawyer and appears to be a good bit smarter than Woo. It is clear from the voting that the jury was receptive to the "I earned my way here" argument and that voting for the person they liked the best was not their top priority. Kass certainly could claim to be someone who played the game and impacted the results far more than Woo did. She made big moves, Woo did not. And had Kass won the final challenge in dramatic come-from-behind fashion, that would have given her back to back challenge wins at the most important moment of the game. The jury would have given her some respect for that.

I bet Spencer and perhaps Tasha would have voted for Kass out of respect for her game play. Tony might have as well. Remember that LJ and Jefra were taken out in blindsides that Woo participated in but Kass had nothing to do with. There is no way Trish votes for her, but there are plenty of other votes that could have been up for grabs. While it was easy for everyone to dramatically say, "I would have voted for Woo," when asked about it during the reunion special, I think the final vote would have been a lot closer than some suspect had it been Woo versus Kass.

-Jason "I am glad it wasn't Woo versus Kass though, as it would have felt like a very weak final two" Evans

As you guys know, I was not a Tony fan during the show, which bothered me, and I still don't know WHY I didn't like him (as I've liked other "Villains" that have played). Interestingly, the play of many players from the start here mirrored the Vanuatu play, which of course gave us Boston Rob and Amber, as well as the first tribal council without a "deserving" finalist.

I'm not sure Woo can win once it's the Final 4 that it was. There just wasn't a combination of two OR three that would have swayed the jury to Woo. In fact, Woo had to recognize the issue when there were 5 left. He NEEDED Trish in the mix - needed her as his #2 if it went all the way to 2, and needed to play her and Tony off each other if it was 3. No matter what, you cannot vote Trish off. The thing is that there is so much that goes on in camp, and especially in Tribal, that we don't get to see. The edits made Trish a meanie, but maybe that was truly isolated incidents, because Tony and Woo both described her as really sweet.

Otherwise, while people are usually unaware of how they themselves are perceived, it's rare to see mess up how others are perceived so egregiously.

[gurufrisbee]

Kass vs Woo would have been easily the weakest final candidates in the show's history. Woo definitely wins that, but I always hate when they do that show of hands vote at the end because it's somewhat unrealistic considering months have passed and they never know what the final TC would have ended up sounding like with someone different there.

That said, I still think Woo wins and wins big over Kass. For one, he played better in the game - won more challenges and helped his tribe win more challenges. Two, no one disliked him. Three, he actually did a great job at the final TC of expressing himself and making a good case for his honor based decisions. Four, Kass might be a lawyer and be used to that but half that jury had their chances at winning the game RUINED by her when she jumped her loyal alliance to vote out Sarah simply because Kass didn't like her and those folks were FAR more vengeful about that than they were about Tony's lies and betrayals. Five, Kass would have never recovered from flipping off Trish right as Trish's torch got snuffed. Trish was well liked and the jury all knows the pain and sadness of that torch snuffing moment and Kass would have been ripped a new one by the jury for that. Six, Kass was painfully unaware. Even with her husband at the end she tried to argue she wasn't a goat but that people just hated her. But she was a goat - one of the biggest goats in the history of the game.

It was a very poor season and Tony winning just emphasizes how bad it was. He was hated by the jury and massively overplayed himself all season, but still wins the million easily because no one else was even playing at all most of the time. It was Tony playing Survivor and everyone else having a tropical vacation until Tony decided it was time for you to go home. That's a weak cast and a weak season.

I'm kind of looking forward to Blood vs Water 2. I never like when they have some returning players and some not - that gimmick has never worked well. And Redemption Island isn't good either, but Blood vs Water was the only time that it wasn't a pure negative. It's the best way to use it.

[Udaman]

By the way, I told you neither Kass nor Woo would get more than a vote. I also predicted that Spencer would barely lose and then be out.

So a few things:

1) Truly sucks that Spencer didn't get the 100K

2). Can't believe woo picked Tony. Again it almost makes me feel like it's rigged.

3). JE - you are nuts if you think Spencer would have voted for Kass. Zero chance. That jury hated her. With a passion. She gets 1-2 votes if any.

4). What shocked me the most was Spencer's excellent argument to Tony to take him to the final 3. It was perfectly made, and -truthfully - Tony was an idiot for not doing it. It should have cost him the game. He knows he's bad at puzzles and spencer isn't and spencer guaranteed to take Tony to the finals. Kass would have taken him as well. That was the dumbest move of the game by Tony, by far.

5). I told my spouse before Spencer got up that "he better give a lecture to the jury about how much more deserving Tony was than woo." Glad he did and agree that they should have asked about it.

6). Good season overall. Spencer and Tony will be back. I bet Tasha and Kass will as well. Next spring I bet. Season 30. Heroes v villains part 2.