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greybeard
03-03-2014, 10:44 AM
Okay, no way that this happens, none. But, it's snowing like mad, which brings out strange ideas in me (oh boy), so, I was thinking, would Marshall be a first round pick, and how high, if he decided to declare for the draft at the end of the season.

Bare in mind Miles' meteoric improvement, and how well Marshall has shown, notwithstanding that K never looks to get him the ball as an option in the offense.

My sense is that he'd definitely go in the first round, perhaps even higher than Miles went.

Lucky there are not more of these blizzards, no?

Kedsy
03-03-2014, 10:49 AM
My sense is that he'd definitely go in the first round, perhaps even higher than Miles went.

As you say, there is a zero percent chance of Marshall declaring after this season. That said, there's snow here too, so I'll play. My opinion is there's absolutely no way Marshall goes in the 1st round this year. Not even sure he goes in the 2nd round. Hopefully after two more years in Durham, he'll have played his way to a first round pick, but no chance of it this year.

FerryFor50
03-03-2014, 10:54 AM
Okay, no way that this happens, none. But, it's snowing like mad, which brings out strange ideas in me (oh boy), so, I was thinking, would Marshall be a first round pick, and how high, if he decided to declare for the draft at the end of the season.

Bare in mind Miles' meteoric improvement, and how well Marshall has shown, notwithstanding that K never looks to get him the ball as an option in the offense.

My sense is that he'd definitely go in the first round, perhaps even higher than Miles went.

Lucky there are not more of these blizzards, no?

There may be a valid reason Marshall never gets the ball as an option on offense...

MP3's value right now is energy, rebounding and shot blocking. Maybe he can develop an offensive game like Mason, but recall that Miles' had a similar role to MP3 on the national championship team.

Oh, and no chance he goes in the first round even if he did leave.

flyingdutchdevil
03-03-2014, 10:56 AM
This post is evidence as to why Duke needs to play twice a week. ;)

greybeard - at least you realize that this post is semi-crazy. But, like you, I'll blame it on the snow!

superdave
03-03-2014, 11:03 AM
First of all, the 2014 draft should be pretty loaded. The big men who are likely to turn pro and be first rounds picks are Embiid, Randle, Vonleh, Saric, Cauley-Stein, Austin. I am sure there will be a handful of foreign players who pop up as well. So I do not think Marshall would get a look in the first round. He has the size and frame to be a legit backup center in the NBA though, so he could get some attention in the second round.

greybeard
03-03-2014, 11:08 AM
Everything, but for free throw shooting, that Marshall has been allowed to do, which is, when you think about it, an awful lot, he is doing near off the charts.

Kedsy. I agree that there must be a reason. My best guess, there is only one ball, two players who MUST be featured, and when Marshall is on the court (1) team much better defensively, (2) he occupies a big defender's attention by often staying behind the defense, out of line-of-site vision, and is now starting to be deployed as a multiple screen setter in possessions. Also, K has him doing plenty, sprinting the court, doing terrifically on the "show," shot blocker/alterer in the middle, rebounder, runner of the court. Also, to the extent that he spends a fair percentage of his time on the court (less so as time goes by) when Dawkins is there too, the game is on to see if Dawkins is on.

The question, on how many other teams would Marshall not be averaging a near or certain double/double, plus presenting the basketball IQ we have been seeing. Not many mistakes out there and some very dominating plays, I think.

Another era, but the back up to Bill Walton, Sven Natter, was a top five ABL pick and barely played a minute in 4 years at UCLA.

superdave
03-03-2014, 11:26 AM
Matt Wenstrom was Eric Montross' backup for four years at Unc (after being a McDAA). He went undrafted but got picked up and played 11 games for the Celtics. He was a stiff.

Marshall runs the floor well and is high-energy. He's is not stiff. If he continues to grow as a player, he will get drafted. He can play his way into the first round. His brothers paved a good way for him. Low risk high reward from scout's perspective.

Henderson
03-03-2014, 11:29 AM
Matt Wenstrom was Eric Montross' backup for four years at Unc (after being a McDAA). He went undrafted but got picked up and played 11 games for the Celtics. He was a stiff.

Marshall runs the floor well and is high-energy. He's is not stiff. If he continues to grow as a player, he will get drafted. He can play his way into the first round. His brothers paved a good way for him. Low risk high reward from scout's perspective.

But not this year....

And geez, I hope Matt Wenstrom is not the metric here for MP3.

Saratoga2
03-03-2014, 11:45 AM
Everything, but for free throw shooting, that Marshall has been allowed to do, which is, when you think about it, an awful lot, he is doing near off the charts.

Kedsy. I agree that there must be a reason. My best guess, there is only one ball, two players who MUST be featured, and when Marshall is on the court (1) team much better defensively, (2) he occupies a big defender's attention by often staying behind the defense, out of line-of-site vision, and is now starting to be deployed as a multiple screen setter in possessions. Also, K has him doing plenty, sprinting the court, doing terrifically on the "show," shot blocker/alterer in the middle, rebounder, runner of the court. Also, to the extent that he spends a fair percentage of his time on the court (less so as time goes by) when Dawkins is there too, the game is on to see if Dawkins is on.

The question, on how many other teams would Marshall not be averaging a near or certain double/double, plus presenting the basketball IQ we have been seeing. Not many mistakes out there and some very dominating plays, I think.

Another era, but the back up to Bill Walton, Sven Natter, was a top five ABL pick and barely played a minute in 4 years at UCLA.

The only time Rasheed got the ball to Marshall, he got an easy dunk. Why not try to use him in that way and at least keep the defense honest. I don't see him taking a mid range shot at this point, but he may have more value than we have gotten so far with just the dunk play.

FerryFor50
03-03-2014, 11:52 AM
The only time Rasheed got the ball to Marshall, he got an easy dunk. Why not try to use him in that way and at least keep the defense honest. I don't see him taking a mid range shot at this point, but he may have more value than we have gotten so far with just the dunk play.

I recall he also got the ball and attempted a post move and got stripped.

nmduke2001
03-03-2014, 12:23 PM
I respectfully have to disagree with anyone that thinks Marshall would be drafted (even in the second round). It’s not like Marshall is an unknown European with crazy upside. He’s a 21 year-old part-time college player. He’ll be 22 in July. The NBA takes gambles on young unknowns, not older unknowns. Corey Magette was 18 (maybe 19) and a freak athletically. Marshall is not that. I would say that there is 0% chance he would get drafted.

CDu
03-03-2014, 12:36 PM
Okay, no way that this happens, none. But, it's snowing like mad, which brings out strange ideas in me (oh boy), so, I was thinking, would Marshall be a first round pick, and how high, if he decided to declare for the draft at the end of the season.

Bare in mind Miles' meteoric improvement, and how well Marshall has shown, notwithstanding that K never looks to get him the ball as an option in the offense.

My sense is that he'd definitely go in the first round, perhaps even higher than Miles went.

Lucky there are not more of these blizzards, no?

No way, no how. Plumlee would be lucky to get drafted.

Remember: Miles Plumlee was a freak of nature (seriously, his draft combine stats look like those of a guard/wing). He had shown some productivity in college, posting numerous double-doubles, and had a strong senior year as a four-year rotation player. But make no mistake, Miles was drafted because his combine results were just otherwordly. He was a late-first round project.

Mason Plumlee was a very skilled, very proven big man who developed every year for four years and was eventually an All-American caliber player. He was drafted late in the first round based on his combination of athleticism and skill.

Marshall is probably closer athletically to Mason (maybe not quite as athletic as Mason, but not in the same stratosphere as Miles). But he's not nearly as skilled as either Mason or Miles was at the time they were sophomores, let alone when they were drafted. He would most certainly not go in the first round. He'd be lucky to go in the second round. But he'd most likely (like, 99.99% likely) go undrafted. He would almost certainly get a summer invite from someone, and be given the chance to prove he could make a team. But more than likely he'd wind up in the NBDL for a few years in hopes of cracking a roster someday.

I'm thrilled with the level of play Marshall has reached over the past few games. But let's not get carried away. We're still talking about a guy who is a ~12-15 mpg player on a team that appears to really need some size inside. He's growing as a player, but he's VERY far from the NBA's radar right now.

greybeard
03-03-2014, 01:13 PM
I think that the central themes here are most likely correct, BUT.

If Marshall was playing for say Maryland, which, by the way, has been balling but not finishing as of late, how would he be faring. Do you think that Duke, for example, could handle him, that is, keep him from scoring 10-15 in say 25 plus minutes? Who exactly would guard him? Who is guarding him now?

K HAS no choice but to feature Parker. He does not, and there is no next Parker. K has to feature Hood. Ditto. Besides, you'd have to be nuts not to feature these guys.

K needs 3s, lots of them, and to get them, he needs one/two preferably outside players (Hood excluded) who will take it to the rim without batting an eye. So, if Parker, at least for the better part of the first 30 minutes, is the "pound it inside" guy, and, against the zone, which Duke sees more and more, Hood is a "high post" inside the 3-line scorer/distributer, then we have four guys scoring inside or near the lane. The rest of those shots must come from 3. HAVE to.

We have had our differences with regard to Zoubek. I do not know that there is any longer a dispute that Marshall is extremely well coordinated, very strong, gets off his feet, and has good "hands", which is to say that his arms hook up to the rest of him in a very sophisticated and nuanced way, as do his feet. Now, for someone who has shown what he has, is it really that difficult to figure ways to score the ball consistently from the pivot area, the low block and inside the paint?

Learned a lot from each of these takes.

I would be getting Marshall the ball with the intention of having him hurt people (score the ball). I'd do it often.

Kedsy
03-03-2014, 01:48 PM
If Marshall was playing for say Maryland, which, by the way, has been balling but not finishing as of late, how would he be faring. Do you think that Duke, for example, could handle him, that is, keep him from scoring 10-15 in say 25 plus minutes? Who exactly would guard him? Who is guarding him now?

In Alex Len's freshman year he scored 6.0 ppg in 21.2 mpg. In his sophomore season he scored 11.9 ppg in 26.4 mpg. So, I don't think Marshall would be scoring 10 to 15 ppg in 25+ mpg for Maryland right now.

CDu
03-03-2014, 01:58 PM
If Marshall was playing for say Maryland, which, by the way, has been balling but not finishing as of late, how would he be faring. Do you think that Duke, for example, could handle him, that is, keep him from scoring 10-15 in say 25 plus minutes? Who exactly would guard him? Who is guarding him now?

Yes, I do think Duke could and would handle Plumlee. We'd put rotate Parker and Jefferson on him. And he'd have trouble scoring 6-8 ppg in that scenario. Remember: nearly all of Plumlee's points this year have been the direct result of defenses losing track of him as they focus on Parker/Hood/Sulaimon/Cook. Make Plumlee even remotely the focus of the offense and his effectiveness would diminish mightily.


K HAS no choice but to feature Parker. He does not, and there is no next Parker. K has to feature Hood. Ditto. Besides, you'd have to be nuts not to feature these guys.

Exactly. And if Marshall was a truly capable low-post, back-to-the-basket scorer, we'd have made an effort to get him some post looks. We haven't, because he's not there yet. So instead we've relied on Parker, who is a very capable post scorer.


We have had our differences with regard to Zoubek. I do not know that there is any longer a dispute that Marshall is extremely well coordinated, very strong, gets off his feet, and has good "hands", which is to say that his arms hook up to the rest of him in a very sophisticated and nuanced way, as do his feet. Now, for someone who has shown what he has, is it really that difficult to figure ways to score the ball consistently from the pivot area, the low block and inside the paint?

I will still say he doesn't have great hands. And I don't think he's as coordinated as you suggest. And as such, I don' think he'd be a consistency effective back-to-the-basket scorer. Just like Zoubek wasn't, even during his fantastic senior year. For very different reasons, obviously.

Plumlee is just a bit too clumsy when asked to do anything more than catch and immediately shoot (i.e., putbacks/dunks/etc). When he's asked to make any sort of post-moves, it looks really awkward and usually fails to succeed.


I would be getting Marshall the ball with the intention of having him hurt people (score the ball). I'd do it often.

And I would not. As I think it plays away from our strengths and to our weaknesses. I think Marshall's best attributes on offense are his hustle away from the ball (willingness to set screens and chase down loose balls) and his ability to get offensive rebounds. Beyond that, though, I think his offensive skill set is rather limited. I'd take virtually every other player's on-ball offensive game over Plumlee's. I'm quite pleased with the strategy of others shooting and having Plumlee crash the glass. It has been quite effective. I don't think feeding him the ball more would result in a more effective offense for this team.

jv001
03-03-2014, 02:04 PM
As much as I like MPIII, I don't think he would be drafted in the first round this year. Carlos Boozer wasn't drafted in the first round. I do think his best years are ahead of him and with hard work he may ultimately play in the NBA. He just needs to stay healthy and keep improving. He needs to develop the jump hook shot that his brothers used. He's not a go-to-guy in the post, yet. GoDuke!

Kedsy
03-03-2014, 02:19 PM
As much as I like MPIII, I don't think he would be drafted in the first round this year. Carlos Boozer wasn't drafted in the first round.

Yeah, but that argument could have been used against Miles Plumlee as well, but he went in the first round nonetheless.

Marshall wouldn't go in the first round because he hasn't shown he's good enough to merit such a high pick and a guaranteed contract. Hopefully in two years that will have changed.

Wheat/"/"/"
03-03-2014, 02:21 PM
?....Maybe he can develop an offensive game like Mason, but recall that Miles' had a similar role to MP3 on the national championship team.

Mason has an offensive game?
(http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/2488653/mason-plumlee)
I guess I must have missed that development...;)

MP3 is playing tough, and he'll be very valuable come tourney time. He won't need to score, just keep rebounding and providing energy. I don't think Duke gets past the sweet sixteen, maybe to the elite 8, without some real contributions from him.

jv001
03-03-2014, 02:24 PM
Yeah, but that argument could have been used against Miles Plumlee as well, but he went in the first round nonetheless.

Marshall wouldn't go in the first round because he hasn't shown he's good enough to merit such a high pick and a guaranteed contract. Hopefully in two years that will have changed.

Yes, but Miles seems to be more athletic than Marshall. As you and I both stated, Marshall is not ready for the NBA draft but maybe in two years he might be. GoDuke!

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
03-03-2014, 02:33 PM
Okay, no way that this happens, none. But, it's snowing like mad, which brings out strange ideas in me (oh boy), so, I was thinking, would Marshall be a first round pick, and how high, if he decided to declare for the draft at the end of the season.

Bare in mind Miles' meteoric improvement, and how well Marshall has shown, notwithstanding that K never looks to get him the ball as an option in the offense.

My sense is that he'd definitely go in the first round, perhaps even higher than Miles went.

Lucky there are not more of these blizzards, no?

If MP3 declared for the draft today, one of two things would happen:

1) He would not get picked, and the MP3 conspiracy theorists would blame Coach K for not showcasing his talent enough

or

2) He would get picked in the first round, and the MP3 conspiracy theorists would point to this as prove that Coach K didn't use him enough.

greybeard
03-03-2014, 02:47 PM
Well played gents! Made for one of the great snow days. Thanks.

CajunDevil
03-03-2014, 02:53 PM
I totally agree that Marshall would be left out of the first round, and almost assuredly the second round, if he were to declare this year. However, Marshall's instincts and motor are better than either of his brothers and he is a really good athlete with quick feet (and quick hands) - exhibited by his ability to hedge effectively on a high ball screen. Marshall had a really nice post move a few games back where the shot rolled off the rim, but it was skillful, decisive and surprising.

I think with continued development, he will be the third Plumlee picked in the first round of the NBA Draft... albeit the 2016 draft.

CDu
03-03-2014, 03:26 PM
Mason has an offensive game?
(http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/2488653/mason-plumlee)
I guess I must have missed that development...;)

Umm, he's outproducing this guy (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/3991/tyler-hansbrough) and he's only a rookie. I don't see anyone saying that guy didn't have an offensive game.


MP3 is playing tough, and he'll be very valuable come tourney time. He won't need to score, just keep rebounding and providing energy. I don't think Duke gets past the sweet sixteen, maybe to the elite 8, without some real contributions from him.

Oh, I think we could very easily get to the Elite 8 (and even the Final Four) without ANY contributions from Plumlee. We beat Michigan, UCLA, UVa, and Pitt and nearly beat Syracuse on their own floor with minimal contributions from Plumlee. We played Kansas to a draw for 37 minutes without anything from Plumlee. And we lost by just 6 to a stronger Arizona team than we'd face in the tournament (no Ashley) with nothing from Plumlee.

If we're shooting well, we can beat anyone, whether Plumlee plays or not. Plumlee playing well increases our margin for error, but we can certainly shoot our way to the elite-8.

flyingdutchdevil
03-03-2014, 03:33 PM
Remember that MP2 has the HIGHEST PER of any rookie, including Michael Carter Williams.

A variety of PERs:

MP2: 18.62
MCW: 15.39
Tyler Hansbrough: 14.64
MP1: 14.38
Ed Davis: 16.00
Sean May: 20.00

Sorry, that last number referred to hot dogs a day, not PER.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
03-03-2014, 03:35 PM
Umm, he's outproducing this guy (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/3991/tyler-hansbrough) and he's only a rookie. I don't see anyone saying that guy didn't have an offensive game.



Oh, I think we could very easily get to the Elite 8 (and even the Final Four) without ANY contributions from Plumlee. We beat Michigan, UCLA, UVa, and Pitt and nearly beat Syracuse on their own floor with minimal contributions from Plumlee. We played Kansas to a draw for 37 minutes without anything from Plumlee. And we lost by just 6 to a stronger Arizona team than we'd face in the tournament (no Ashley) with nothing from Plumlee.

If we're shooting well, we can beat anyone, whether Plumlee plays or not. Plumlee playing well increases our margin for error, but we can certainly shoot our way to the elite-8.

We've won four national championships without MP3! Three without any Plumlee whatsoever!

nocilla
03-03-2014, 04:10 PM
You guys are forgetting about the Mitch McGary type run that Marshall plans to unleash in the NCAA tourney. This will be enough to get him into first round discussion.

CDu
03-03-2014, 04:18 PM
You guys are forgetting about the Mitch McGary type run that Marshall plans to unleash in the NCAA tourney. This will be enough to get him into first round discussion.

I would gladly take such a turn of events. Even if it meant a unexpected early entry from Plumlee.

johnb
03-04-2014, 06:55 AM
I'd guess that Semi has a better chance to get drafted as a tight end for the NFL than Marshall to get drafted in 2014 by the NBA.

He's coming along, however. His large muscle coordination is excellent. His fine motor stuff is getting there. As with his brothers, it takes a while for those 7 foot neurons to catch up with his overall development, which has also been a little slowed by injury. He's going to be a terrific back-up/rotation player for us, and if his health holds out, for an NBA team as well.

As a scout once said, "there's a pretty girl on every street corner in America, but coordinated 7 footers are hard to find."

greybeard
03-04-2014, 07:00 PM
Such things as personality, maturity, character, and ability to see, feel, imagine, think, and communicate the game; where would you think Marshall ranks as to them.

By the way, we should not have to be guessing about whether Marshall has mastered a jump hook shot (I'd be shocked if he doesn't have that shot, and wouldn't be shocked if he had it with both hands). People who attend games should be able to tell us.

An aside, actually it is not, HOW come year in and year out UNC has multiple players who get catches along or inside the lane and get to create scoring chances? I don't think I can count the number they have that are doing that this year.

This inquiry speaks to the issue of performance occurs within a system; when a system is constructed to create scoring chances inside, scoring chances inside, statistics as to them, are relevant. When it is not, what exactly do statistics speak to, and who would want top listen. Duke's attack begins with creating as many inside chances for Parker as is possible, primarily low, but also high. I'm not saying that Plumlee should be featured, but, come on, scoring the ball in the lane if you have your feet under you and your head attached to the game, scoring it from a good reception inside is EASY, or at least an offense can make it such.

So, anybody see Plumlee shooting around before games. Early shoot arounds would be great, especially when guys sometimes play soft one-on-ones or a coach or teammate will feed a guy going to or in a spot , from which several deliveries are practiced.

How about some eye witness facts. I know we love stats here. But eyes speak to something that no statistic can, no?

Troublemaker
03-04-2014, 08:11 PM
So, anybody see Plumlee shooting around before games. Early shoot arounds would be great, especially when guys sometimes play soft one-on-ones or a coach or teammate will feed a guy going to or in a spot , from which several deliveries are practiced.

How about some eye witness facts. I know we love stats here. But eyes speak to something that no statistic can, no?

I don't think pregame shootarounds are a reliable indicator; otherwise, we'd have to wonder why Duke doesn't shoot 75% from three during games.

Marshall only averaged 11.5 points/gm as a senior in high school and 8.6 points/gm as a junior in high school, according to his GoDuke profile (http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?ATCLID=205214164&). Here's some youtube (http://youtu.be/odz-Q53VwdM?t=35s) as well.

I think a good guess would be that he came to Duke as a project offensively, that what we're getting from him now is great especially given his health issues, and that hopefully with two more years in the program, we can go to him a bit more for scoring in the post later on his career but probably never as a primary option.

CDu
03-04-2014, 09:35 PM
I don't think pregame shootarounds are a reliable indicator; otherwise, we'd have to wonder why Duke doesn't shoot 75% from three during games.

Marshall only averaged 11.5 points/gm as a senior in high school and 8.6 points/gm as a junior in high school, according to his GoDuke profile (http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?ATCLID=205214164&). Here's some youtube (http://youtu.be/odz-Q53VwdM?t=35s) as well.

I think a good guess would be that he came to Duke as a project offensively, that what we're getting from him now is great especially given his health issues, and that hopefully with two more years in the program, we can go to him a bit more for scoring in the post later on his career but probably never as a primary option.

Yeah, Marshall strikes me as the least skilled of the Plumlee brothers. And that, combined with his injuries, would certainly explain his lack of production thus far in his career. It sounds like the high school stats (and the lack of scoring) were not indicative of a guy with a strong offensive game (at least not in terms of scoring ability).

Des Esseintes
03-04-2014, 09:57 PM
On the subject of greybeard and NBA assessments, it's probably a relevant data point that he once argued Jared Dudley should be drafted either #1 or #2 overall.

greybeard
03-04-2014, 10:36 PM
Anyone want to bet a nickel. I have it that Marshall plays in the league above 5 years, maybe as long as 10 plus. I'm only betting a nickel because, if I lose, well it's only a nickel, and, if I win, how would I know.:cool:

Marshall, as I'm seeing it, will be able to be a more than competent defender in the pros, and will rebound. His ability to play the pick and roll, and, you must admit, so far so good, makes him a near certain pro, long term journeyman.

As for offense, I asked a simple question. Has anybody seen this guy warming up, and, if so, what did you see. What we've seen so far is that the kid Makes Plays. These are not plays that are handed to him, except when, as rarely happens, somebody like Parker decides to throw it toward the rim because Marshall is behind the defense and when someone threatens the lane he will have a lane to the rim, but, even that, he goes up and finishes.

Has he missed a single lob pass. Mason, who people were double teaming and guarding all over the place, had at least, you supply the number, lob passes thrown to him each game.

Someone answer this and NOT SOMETHING ELSE: (1) what have you seen that says that Marshall will not catch and finish if a back-door lob is called and materializes, and (2) what, besides K, stops that play from being called. While you are at it, wouldn't it be nice, you can answer this one also if you like, if someone who drove the lane "created" by lobbing it to Plumlee over the top, that is, slanted his penetration to create the help that would create that pass and finish, and then we would know to a certainty if he has that "shot" in his game.

I don't get the point of referencing Plumlee's high-school scoring numbers.

I am not trying to argue here because although this post has that tone. I'm not taking it down because it says some things I think might be thought provoking. Plumlee is not leaving this year, he is a positive contributor and is getting plenty of opportunity, and, the next game is Wake Forest.

Plumlee has begun playing Zoubek's multiple screen game, which perhaps is why WoJo said a fair while back that Plumlee is key to Duke's reaching its potential. He seems to be delivering. It's all good.

This is "what if" ball, gents, fantasy Duke basketball only much less fantasy than the stuff that bears that name.

Only a "what if" thread, all house money.

Troublemaker
03-04-2014, 11:39 PM
greybeard, I brought up MP3's high school stats for the same reason why you're asking people if Marshall looks good shooting jump hooks against no defenders in pregame shootarounds. It's a desperate search for context to this discussion. Basically, if Duke rarely goes to MP3 for offense and we therefore have almost zero meaningful data points on his offensive skill, we can either accept he's not ready to handle a greater offensive role at this time, or we can begin the desperate search for other answers.

Yes, I think MP3 can catch a lob dunk. And yes I think MP3 will be an NBA player one day (although his short arms make his odds closer to 50/50 than you think). However, believing he can catch a lob dunk is far different from believing MP3 would be averaging a double-double on another ACC team right now. (Again, for context, if he could barely do that as a senior in high school...)

Why aren't we throwing more lob dunks to MP3? Because, defense. Because, tougher than you think. Hood can catch lob dunks. Parker can catch them, too. But Duke hasn't been consistently running lob plays to those guys, either. However, there are plenty of other actions and quick-hitters that Duke IS quite good at executing and executing often enough to have made Duke into a top 2 offense in the country. I'd like us to stick with those plays. That said, if Duke's facing a particularly short, unathletic team that lacks baseline awareness, sure... let's run a lob play for MP3.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
03-05-2014, 05:09 AM
greybeard, I brought up MP3's high school stats for the same reason why you're asking people if Marshall looks good shooting jump hooks against no defenders in pregame shootarounds. It's a desperate search for context to this discussion. Basically, if Duke rarely goes to MP3 for offense and we therefore have almost zero meaningful data points on his offensive skill, we can either accept he's not ready to handle a greater offensive role at this time, or we can begin the desperate search for other answers.

Yes, I think MP3 can catch a lob dunk. And yes I think MP3 will be an NBA player one day (although his short arms make his odds closer to 50/50 than you think). However, believing he can catch a lob dunk is far different from believing MP3 would be averaging a double-double on another ACC team right now. (Again, for context, if he could barely do that as a senior in high school...)

Why aren't we throwing more lob dunks to MP3? Because, defense. Because, tougher than you think. Hood can catch lob dunks. Parker can catch them, too. But Duke hasn't been consistently running lob plays to those guys, either. However, there are plenty of other actions and quick-hitters that Duke IS quite good at executing and executing often enough to have made Duke into a top 2 offense in the country. I'd like us to stick with those plays. That said, if Duke's facing a particularly short, unathletic team that lacks baseline awareness, sure... let's run a lob play for MP3.

But... you didn't address his points one and two - and ONLY points one and two.

I'll play... someone reply to this thread and only address these three points:

1) What evidence do you have (pregame shootaround or otherwise) that Marshall Plumlee is not out best point guard?

2) Is it not true that playing MP3 at point guard on defense would allow him to be the first man back on offense, leading to fast breaks and lob dunks?

3) With Wojo as the big man coach AND a former point guard, why is he not advocating for this sort of play?

Imagine the mismatches it would create! Imagine the look of fear in the opposition! Imagine the opposing coach improvising new game plans on the spot!

In a related issue, let's say MP3 were to make himself eligible for the NFL draft. Do you think the Jaguars would be stupid not to pick him as a tight end?

Go Duke! Beat Wake! Beat UNC!

CDu
03-05-2014, 08:19 AM
Anyone want to bet a nickel. I have it that Marshall plays in the league above 5 years, maybe as long as 10 plus. I'm only betting a nickel because, if I lose, well it's only a nickel, and, if I win, how would I know.:cool:

Seems kind of pointless, as who knows if any of us will still be on this board in the 7+ years that it will take to wait and see who is right. I don't think Marshall will play 5+ years in the league, but I also don't know where he'll be as a player in two years. A big part of making it in the NBA is opportunity, and it all depends upon whether he improves enough to force an opportunity to make a roster.


Someone answer this and NOT SOMETHING ELSE: (1) what have you seen that says that Marshall will not catch and finish if a back-door lob is called and materializes, and (2) what, besides K, stops that play from being called. While you are at it, wouldn't it be nice, you can answer this one also if you like, if someone who drove the lane "created" by lobbing it to Plumlee over the top, that is, slanted his penetration to create the help that would create that pass and finish, and then we would know to a certainty if he has that "shot" in his game.

1. Nothing.

2. Defense. It's hard to get back-door lobs. We've tried to do it with Parker and Hood, but that has only worked about 5-10 times on the season. It can occasionally work against a zone if the zone gets pulled forward a bit and folks lose track of the baseline. And in that situation against an undisciplined zone, I'd absolutely suggest the lob pass to Plumlee (or any of our bigs). But against man-to-man, that play is just not typically available. If it were easy to run back-door lob plays, we'd do it 15-20 times per game. But defense just doesn't allow it.

3 (bonus). Two things: defense and spot on the floor. Defense usually hedges on the pick and roll to prevent dribble penetration. And even if the driver beats the defense, if Plumlee is the big man setting the screen he has a tough task to keep up with the guard driving. The more likely recipient in that scenario would be the baseline player (typically Parker or Hood). Since Plumlee is a better screen option than Parker or Hood and since Parker and Hood are both better options as finishers, they are the ones more likely to get the lob.


I don't get the point of referencing Plumlee's high-school scoring numbers.

The point was to get some sort of sense of Plumlee's scoring capabilities. Since we have virtually nothing to go on from his college career, looking at whether or not he could score in the post gives us some sort of starting point. Zoubek, for example, was a very capable scorer in high school. It didn't translate to the college game, but he was a MUCH better scorer in high school than Plumlee was. You seemed to be suggesting that he could be a 10+ ppg scorer on another ACC team right now. Well, the fact that he had trouble scoring 10ppg in high school suggests otherwise.

So far, your questions have been "can Plumlee make a hook shot?" and "can Plumlee catch a lob pass?" The answer to the first seems to be "not regularly" - at least not against actual defense. The answer to the second is "yes", but catching lob passes will get you about 2 points per game on average (if you're lucky).

Right now, Plumlee's offensive game appears to be finishing follow-up dunks on offensive rebounds. He's shown no signs of a viable back-to-the-basket game yet, and he has no face-up game. That doesn't mean he isn't valuable. His offensive rebounding and hustle make him a valuable player in this offense. But it does put a cap on what he can do offensively.

greybeard
03-05-2014, 11:00 AM
I came off argumentative, understood that, but posted anyway because that was not my intent, as I tried to say.

As far as high school goes, my point was that I do not think it a good measure as to where Plumlee is now. High school was a long time ago. I do see your point T but people can grow, and not just physically. I had been advocating here for 4 years that Miles needed to soften, understand "soften" throughout his system, and not to try to explode at the rim when he got it inside, at least not to try to unless he had the defender relatively flat footed. Said that his "poor hands" were a function of tightening throughout his system, habitual, equating tightening with power. Tightening restricts power if chronic, if not well timed. Said that Miles might "get this" playing one-on-one with, and watching, pros his size and athleticism (I hate that word). Watch him now.

I do not think that finishing around the rim for a big guy has much of anything to do with speed, or I might also argue quickness, at least as that term is normally understood. I think that it has everything to do with understanding one's own momentum and reading and manipulating the defender's/defenders'. Quickness is relative to where you put the defender or find him, and where you have yourself, whether you seem committed but are not and have choice as to where you are going and how fast that the defender CANNOT deal with.

There clearly are back-door lob plays run for Parker, and to a greater extent, Hood.

I have seen Parker handle pass penetration whenever someone looks for it, he is always creating opportunities, well. Parker's lob one of the past two games, I believe the Captain shoveled one to Plumlee reasonably recently as well. I have not seen him flub anything, nada, except maybe the first few 1 minute run games, and even then I am not sure.

Has he actually missed jump hooks in a game such that one can conclude that he does not have that shot? I really don't know. I think that the reason that many such shots are missed is because they are taken improvidently. X catches in close but at a terrible angle, he expects he should score because he is so close, the defender takes away the direction that X seeks to get a good angle, X has moved and is off balance so elevates and throws the ball away. Sure, sometimes, a defender can alter release point, but I think that the real culprit is that the offensive player does not feel it to begin with. As I've mentioned, I think that that happens for 3-ball shooters as well, Dawkins in particular. If you look with all of yourself, next game see if you can feel that you do not feel good about a shot way before release and then check outcome. SAME exact thing. That is the defender taking away what the shooter wanted, and it could be an inch, then having begun momentum toward what wanted, off balance such that shooting is really a bailout.

This happens quite often to Parker too, but his 3 often falls victim to the move before the shot, which has his leaned over from the waste as in exploring/threatening to put it on the floor, and then straightening and bringing the ball and himself a long way towards upright and delivery that depends on Parker's having to find something while elevating that often is not there.

Back to Marshall. It is possible that the reason that they, K and WoJo, do not want him shooting is because he is not good enough at it, but I doubt that that is the case. Ditto for Jefferson, by the way, who has been given greater latitude to "go" when he sees it.

I think that the reason that Plumlee does not get to get looks is because K and WoJo want inside shots taken by Parker, Hood, and now to a very lesser extent Jefferson, in terms of the bigs, from Rasheed and Cook, and even Dawkins, from the littles, and the rest need to be 3s. I think that K and WoJo also see Plumlee's value added as a zero sum game and want him to wear the heck out of people and himself making plays on defense, the boards, and offense in the ways that we've been seeing. Difficult to argue with any of this, if this hypothesis is so, but I do. I would not make Plumlee a scorer but I think that the reins are being held too tightly because K and WoJo see too many possibilities of less-than-ideal judgments by passers and Plumlee if the faucet is opened just a little.
In the end, K and WoJo must get the nod, even from so humble a person as myself.;)

CDu
03-05-2014, 11:34 AM
Back to Marshall. It is possible that the reason that they, K and WoJo, do not want him shooting is because he is not good enough at it, but I doubt that that is the case. Ditto for Jefferson, by the way, who has been given greater latitude to "go" when he sees it.

I think that the reason that Plumlee does not get to get looks is because K and WoJo want inside shots taken by Parker, Hood, and now to a very lesser extent Jefferson, in terms of the bigs, from Rasheed and Cook, and even Dawkins, from the littles, and the rest need to be 3s. I think that K and WoJo also see Plumlee's value added as a zero sum game and want him to wear the heck out of people and himself making plays on defense, the boards, and offense in the ways that we've been seeing. Difficult to argue with any of this, if this hypothesis is so, but I do. I would not make Plumlee a scorer but I think that the reins are being held too tightly because K and WoJo see too many possibilities of less-than-ideal judgments by passers and Plumlee if the faucet is opened just a little.
In the end, K and WoJo must get the nod, even from so humble a person as myself.;)

It is certainly possible. But I think the far simpler and more likely rationale is that Plumlee is just not a very gifted offensive player at this point, and is surrounded by much more capable offensive players. He's a useful player for his size, rebounding, and hustle. But until his offensive game catches up, we're going to run our offense through the more capable offensive players.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
03-05-2014, 11:40 AM
I came off argumentative, understood that, but posted anyway because that was not my intent, as I tried to say...

I think that the reason that Plumlee does not get to get looks is because K and WoJo want inside shots taken by Parker, Hood, and now to a very lesser extent Jefferson, in terms of the bigs, from Rasheed and Cook, and even Dawkins, from the littles, and the rest need to be 3s. I think that K and WoJo also see Plumlee's value added as a zero sum game and want him to wear the heck out of people and himself making plays on defense, the boards, and offense in the ways that we've been seeing. Difficult to argue with any of this, if this hypothesis is so, but I do. I would not make Plumlee a scorer but I think that the reins are being held too tightly because K and WoJo see too many possibilities of less-than-ideal judgments by passers and Plumlee if the faucet is opened just a little.
In the end, K and WoJo must get the nod, even from so humble a person as myself.;)

All I will say is that I vehemently disagree. If MP3 had scoring prowess, K ought to be falling all over himself to get him the ball in those positions. Our entire offense would be opened up dramatically with a guy of Marshall's size posting up defending centers on the blocks. I can't imagine that if he were effective in those positions any of our coaches would say "meh, let's see if Parker can just drive in again."

I love the idea that Plumlee's amazing offensive skills are a faucet yearning to blow, and that once our guards see how amazingly efficient he is in the low post they will be physically unable to resist feeding him the ball... but once again, I'm going to assume that instead Coach K is not seeing this in practice and is using an improving MP3 to the best of his ability at the greatest return to the team.

Again, I'd love to be wrong. But I don't think that MP3 is going to go to the NBA this year, I don't think he's going to explode as a top option on offense, and I don't think he's being held back by any of our coaches. I think he's a good kid who is quickly becoming an important asset to this team for bursts of time, and I will be quite happy with that.

greybeard
03-05-2014, 02:23 PM
It is certainly possible. But I think the far simpler and more likely rationale is that Plumlee is just not a very gifted offensive player at this point, and is surrounded by much more capable offensive players. He's a useful player for his size, rebounding, and hustle. But until his offensive game catches up, we're going to run our offense through the more capable offensive players.

More or less saying the same thing, I think. Parker gets all the shots at the rim that are the sort that Plumlee might be capable of. Who would argue with that choice. Lobs on set plays, or tosses over the rim behind the defense, Parker and Hood. Who would argue with that choice either.

My point, to begin with, is that we have not seen what Plumlee can do. All we know is that two guys are getting shots that Plumlee might do well. The two guys who are getting them are not only sure high first round picks, but are the epicenter of Duke's offense.

So, would Plumlee be drafted if he were to declare this year, and, if so, where, remains to me an interesting, if academic, question. Right now, we can all agree that he's looking an awful lot like a pro prospect right now, and they have yet to let the guy shoot. Maybe it's because he can't. Anybody see him in warm ups, hear stuff about how he shows in practice?

nmduke2001
03-05-2014, 03:19 PM
Right now, we can all agree that he's looking an awful lot like a pro prospect right now, and they have yet to let the guy shoot.

I absolutely would not agree. Marshall does not look anything like a pro prospect to me. IMO, if he declared this year, there is zero chance he gets drafted in either round. As CDu mentioned before, Marshall does not have the athletic gifts of Mason and certainly not those of Miles. Marshall is a tall, energy guy.

Marshall to me is a throwback center in that he likes to bang in the post. Guys in the league today can step out to 18 feet to shoot. They can take their defender off the dribble. They can lead the fast break. Marshall cannot do those things. I think the only mildly encouraging thing for Marshall is the fact that the only two “traditional” big men in the league, Howard and Hibbert, are both All-Stars. That is more of an indictment on the league than an accomplishment by either of those two. In the era of Shaq, Ewing, Robinson and Olajuwan, both Hibbert and Howard would struggle to be All-Stars. Having said that, both Howard and Hibbert have vastly superior games to Marshall.

I really like Marshall, but if he was an NBA level talent, wouldn’t he be playing more, especially in a position of need for Duke?

jv001
03-05-2014, 03:25 PM
I've already commented Marshall is not ready for the NBA at this time. But as far as saying he will not be an NBA player, I'm not going that route. There were many on this very board that said Marshall would not get more than 2-5 minutes ppg this year. Let's let it play out and see how good MPIII can be. Let him run his own race. Beat Wake! GoDuke!!

Kedsy
03-05-2014, 03:42 PM
Right now, we can all agree that he's looking an awful lot like a pro prospect right now, and they have yet to let the guy shoot.

Right now he's looking an awful lot like a 7-footer with reasonably good coordination. To the extent that equals "pro prospect," I agree with you.

But if he were 6'8", having shown what he's shown so far, he wouldn't be any kind of prospect. I'm not sure his shooting matters either way.

azzefkram
03-05-2014, 03:44 PM
Why are you guys engaging?

Kedsy
03-05-2014, 03:47 PM
Why are you guys engaging?

Because compared to the guys in the WBB threads, greybeard is a breath of fresh air.

CDu
03-05-2014, 04:13 PM
More or less saying the same thing, I think. Parker gets all the shots at the rim that are the sort that Plumlee might be capable of. Who would argue with that choice. Lobs on set plays, or tosses over the rim behind the defense, Parker and Hood. Who would argue with that choice either.

My point, to begin with, is that we have not seen what Plumlee can do. All we know is that two guys are getting shots that Plumlee might do well. The two guys who are getting them are not only sure high first round picks, but are the epicenter of Duke's offense.

So, would Plumlee be drafted if he were to declare this year, and, if so, where, remains to me an interesting, if academic, question. Right now, we can all agree that he's looking an awful lot like a pro prospect right now, and they have yet to let the guy shoot. Maybe it's because he can't. Anybody see him in warm ups, hear stuff about how he shows in practice?

I don't think we are saying the same thing. You are (I think) saying that Marshall has the game just not the opportunity. I am saying that I don't think he has the game yet and thus hasn't earned the opportunity.

I don't think he is currently looking like a pro. Maybe he eventually gets there. But there is much ground left to cover. Thus I do not think "would he get drafted this year?" is that interesting a question. He would not.

tommy
03-05-2014, 04:19 PM
More or less saying the same thing, I think. Parker gets all the shots at the rim that are the sort that Plumlee might be capable of. Who would argue with that choice. Lobs on set plays, or tosses over the rim behind the defense, Parker and Hood. Who would argue with that choice either.

My point, to begin with, is that we have not seen what Plumlee can do. All we know is that two guys are getting shots that Plumlee might do well. The two guys who are getting them are not only sure high first round picks, but are the epicenter of Duke's offense.

So, would Plumlee be drafted if he were to declare this year, and, if so, where, remains to me an interesting, if academic, question. Right now, we can all agree that he's looking an awful lot like a pro prospect right now, and they have yet to let the guy shoot. Maybe it's because he can't. Anybody see him in warm ups, hear stuff about how he shows in practice?

This whole discussion is silly. Essentially a troll.

Listen: if Plumlee was as capable as, or even close to as capable as guys like Parker and Hood at finishing on lobs or any other type of inside scoring, he would get the opportunity to do it on a regular basis. It's not a zero-sum game. If you can have three guys finishing plays inside, you use three guys to finish plays inside, instead of two and leave one doing nothing but setting screens and chasing rebounds.

Plumlee "might" do well at it? No, he wouldn't do well at it. Not nearly as well at it as our other options. How do we know this? Not from watching warmups and not seeing anything to the contrary. What kind of reasoning is that? We know it because Coach K watches all of these guys very closely every single day in practice, and there is not a single reason in the world that he would refuse to use Plumlee in a role in which he demonstrated proficiency, if he in fact had demonstrated that proficiency. Unless you believe K is somehow sabotaging this team, that he's not interested in it playing to its maximum potential.

That's why this whole thing is silly. If Marshall could do more, and do it well, he would be doing it. If he could provide other dimensions to this team -- like he has in the areas of screen setting and to an extent, rebounding -- he would be not just allowed to do so, but encouraged and even commanded to do so.

And no, "we" cannnot all agree that Marshall is looking like a pro prospect. He's looking like a guy who has just begun to contribute on the collegiate level, in limited areas of the game. He is a guy who I think has the potential to develop other areas of his game, like, I don't know, the ability to reliably catch the ball in the post, and make a coherent, smooth, post move. But he hasn't done that yet. If he does it, he'll be getting a lot more minutes at Duke, and will become a potential pro player. I hope it happens, but it hasn't yet.

People see what they want to see sometimes, but because you want Marshall to be the next coming of the sainted Zoubek -- and even he was an extremely marginal pro prospect -- doesn't mean he is, or ever will be.

billy
03-05-2014, 04:52 PM
Plumlee "might" do well at it? No, he wouldn't do well at it. Not nearly as well at it as our other options. How do we know this? Not from watching warmups and not seeing anything to the contrary. What kind of reasoning is that? We know it because Coach K watches all of these guys very closely every single day in practice, and there is not a single reason in the world that he would refuse to use Plumlee in a role in which he demonstrated proficiency, if he in fact had demonstrated that proficiency. Unless you believe K is somehow sabotaging this team, that he's not interested in it playing to its maximum potential.

The one thing that has not been mentioned in this discussion is the role of Marshall's injuries. Coach K even said recently that he'd like to play Marshall more if he could (after he cramped up). I don't think we have enough data on how good a healthy Marshall is to assess his upside accurately.

Troublemaker
03-05-2014, 05:50 PM
Why are you guys engaging?

For me, I think I have an upbeat personality, always smiling, chiseled good looks, confidence and command of the room when I speak.

pfrduke
03-05-2014, 06:51 PM
LaPhonso Ellis, president of the fan club: Duke will make the final four because of Marshall Plumlee.

greybeard
03-05-2014, 08:10 PM
Plumlee is not nearly as capable as Parker at the inside game, any facet of it, not in the same universe. Hood is incredibly quick off his feet and when he is near the baseline and within 10-12 feet from the rim, when the ball is on the other side of the court, his defender is often cheating to get over-the-top of an expected down screen--the lob to him is a deadly set up.

Plumlee has several things going for him. First, he is 7 plus feet tall, strong.

Second, he has good feet and hands--everybody has seen him get out on the break, beat people down the court, catch on a dead sprint and finish well, with coordination and balance. Ditto with put backs and ditto on the two plays that I have mentioned.

Third, and this is one of you guys' favorites, people don't guard him, at least they are apt to forget to guard him when there is a potentiual challenge to the rim that they can impede. They are apt to cheat too soon off the guy. Yes or No!

K's game is the 3-ball. How he breaks down the numbers and modifies as play continues I wouldn't have a clue. But, he wants to beat you with his 3s; to break your back with them. He has a world class inside player in Parker, a stellar high post player against the zone in Hood, I think a remarkable talent who can get to the basket and score in lightning ways from the high post in Amile, and must have outside guys breaking down the defense and at times finishing in Rasheed and Cook.

I think that there no more shots at the rim that K wants. Stated otherwise, he is NOT trying to keep Duke back by not going inside to Plumlee to score, he is seeking to use Plumlee to maximum advantage given the power he already has inside and his COMMITMNENT to "you score your two or try to score your three and we will beat you like a metronome because our three will go in more than yours and there is nothing you can do about it.

Oh, you can devote extra resources to stopping the three but then you will need to deal with Parker inside straight up and, if you do that, the game is over before the first 10 minutes because your two best bigs will be sitting with 3 each. Parker will make you foul him and dunk it with the other hand from the other side off of changes in tempo and direction on the dribble that you do not see in a man his size. Now, teams have managed to slow down the three game and have an extra asset available to help on Parker, say, take away the middle from him. Which is where bringing Parker high comes in. But, Duke has climbed in the polls with this scenario.

The big impetus came with the platooning, that birthed Rasheed as a terror and also got Dawkins meaningful minutes without having to look over his shoulder and that too has worked splendidly. What has also shown up, gentlemen, is Mr. Marshall Plumlee. And, I have seen nothing but great things from him, and I do mean great. He is not trying to score the ball because he is not getting it and, even when he gets it by mistake he is not trying to score because he is not supposed to. He does score the ball when scoring is obvious, the two examples I've mentioned previously.

Logic, I suggest, says that the reason Plumlee does not get more scoring chances has nothing whatever to do with a supposed inability to get it done, for which there is not a shred of evidence. On the other hand, the evidence that his considerable success on the court to date, including some very nice finishes as mentioned above and no bad misplays to counterbalance them, does not comprise a rock solid case that he would deliver if asked to.

Next year, when that kid whom everyone is salivating about arrives, I think that things are going to get beyond interesting.