This Week in the ACC - 3/3-3/9

[pfrduke]

Congrats to the Wahoos (second institution of higher education for yours truly) for sewing up the regular season title and the ACCT #1 seed. Going down the rest of the field, Syracuse and Duke are the only teams left with a shot at the 2 seed - the Orange get it if they win out but are vulnerable with a loss. Carolina is the only other team that can sneak into #3, and will get there if it beats Duke. Those 4 teams are guaranteed the bye slots, as Carolina holds the tiebreaker over Pitt should they both end up 12-6 (which is unlikely anyway). The Clemson-Pitt game on Saturday could be a battle for the 5 seed - Clemson would hold any tiebreaker with Pitt if Clemson wins that game. No other team can finish 5th (FSU would lose a tiebreaker to Clemson if all 3 end up 10-8, but the Noles would jump Pitt for the 6th seed were that to occur). From there on down, it's a bit of a mess all the way to Virginia Tech, which is almost certain to finish 15th. That being said, both State and Maryland should be safe from playing Wednesday.

Monday Pitt can keep itself off of the 7 line with a win over State at home. They stomped on the Pack in Raleigh earlier in the season, but both teams' level of play has drifted closer to each other since then (at least, until State's disappointing loss to Miami).

[22]North Carolina hosts [97]Notre Dame (7, ESPN)
[15]Pittsburgh hosts [91]NC State (9, ESPNU)

Tuesday gets Syracuse healthy (probably) as a home game against Georgia Tech is about as comfortable as it can get (of course, I would have said the same thing a couple weeks ago about a home game against BC). Clemson probably will need to win to keep a shot at the 5 seed alive (assuming Pitt beats State). Maryland can bury Virginia Tech in last for certain and (I think) lock up a bye to Thursday with a win. And FSU's hopes of an at large bid would be seriously damaged if they can't walk out of Chestnut Hill with a win.

[11]Syracuse hosts [137]Georgia Tech (7, ESPN3)
[52]Maryland hosts [183]Virginia Tech (8, ESPN3)
[50]Clemson hosts [70]Miami (8, ESPN3)
[139]Boston College hosts [36]Florida State (9, ESPNU)

Wednesday Duke needs to win to keep a shot at the 2 seed alive. I'd say that Wake could be inspired to try to win one for the coach but 1) I think the team is not necessarily behind the coach and 2) I don't think Bzdelik survives this season regardless of what happens Wednesday.

[134]Wake Forest hosts [3]Duke (7, ESPN2)

Thursday and Friday are dark.

Saturday has relatively meaningless afternoon games and then a lot of fun in the evening. Duke and Carolina get Gameday, a battle for seeding (one will be in Virginia's bracket, the other in Syracuse's), and, you know, all the other stuff that goes along with the rivalry. The undercard is Clemson-Pitt. The Tigers could sneak into the 5 seed and get another good win on a resume very short of them.

[183]Virginia Tech hosts [137]Georgia Tech (2, ESPN2 - the ACC politely apologizes that this is a nationally televised game)
[70]Miami hosts [134]Wake Forest (2, ESPN3)
[50]Clemson hosts [15]Pittsburgh (4, ESPN3 - the ACC politely apologizes that, for some reason, this is not a nationally televised game)
[3]Duke hosts [22]North Carolina (9, ESPN)

Sunday gives me the selfish hope that the conference's regular season champion closes out the Comcast Center's time as an ACC arena with a farewell beating, all on major network television. Syracuse and FSU have the afternoon slot - as discussed above, there's a scenario in which FSU could drop Pitt to 7th, but it's playing much more for NCAA hopes than particular ACCT seeding; a win over the Orange would be a nice feather in the the cap. Of course, this game is not nationally televised, in favor of having NC State-BC on to finish the season on ESPNU. The ACC ought to follow the lead of the NFL and flex some of these late season games to get the better matchups into TV slots.

[52]Maryland hosts [2]Virginia (12, CBS)
[36]Florida State hosts [11]Syracuse (2, ESPN3)
[91]NC State hosts [139]Boston College (6, ESPNU)

ACC Non-Conference Record: 139-53
ACC Record vs. BCS: 29-33

[Troublemaker]

I feel like going out on a limb again.

I'll predict NCSU will win at Pitt tonight. Taking NCSU plus the 10.5 points AND taking NCSU moneyline at 5 to 1 to win the game are both good bets.

[FerryFor50]

I feel like going out on a limb again.

I'll predict NCSU will win at Pitt tonight. Taking NCSU plus the 10.5 points AND taking NCSU moneyline at 5 to 1 to win the game are both good bets.

I applaud your bravery and your short memory after that Miami over UVA "fall off the limb." ;)

[Troublemaker]

It's always Next Play, Ferry.

These limb plays... just need to hit them once every 6 times or so to break even. Let's hope tonight's a hit!

[nocilla]

Congrats to the Wahoos (second institution of higher education for yours truly) for sewing up the regular season title and the ACCT #1 seed. Going down the rest of the field, Syracuse and Duke are the only teams left with a shot at the 2 seed - the Orange get it if they win out but are vulnerable with a loss. Carolina is the only other team that can sneak into #3, and will get there if it beats Duke.


Isn't UNC still alive for the #2 seed? Granted it would take Syracuse losing to GT and FSU but they are not mathematically eliminated yet. They would lose a tiebreaker to Syracuse based on the H2H loss, but if they win out and Syracuse loses two then they will bypass a tiebreaker.

[pfrduke]

Isn't UNC still alive for the #2 seed? Granted it would take Syracuse losing to GT and FSU but they are not mathematically eliminated yet. They would lose a tiebreaker to Syracuse based on the H2H loss, but if they win out and Syracuse loses two then they will bypass a tiebreaker.

Good point - I was thinking entirely in terms of tiebreaker but forgot that they could end up ahead in the loss column. That said, Syracuse can end that conversation with a win over Georgia Tech at home.

[-jk]

Well, at least NCSU acquitted themselves tonight. (Damned Irish)

-jk

[pfrduke]

It's always Next Play, Ferry.

These limb plays... just need to hit them once every 6 times or so to break even. Let's hope tonight's a hit!

I think there's a saying about blind squirrels and nuts applicable here.

[FerryFor50]

TJ Warren drops 41 on Pitt. ACCPOY.

[Troublemaker]

I think there's a saying about blind squirrels and nuts applicable here.

Hahaha, I think the applicable phrase here is CHA-CHING!

Now I'm allowed to make four more horrible predictions like Miami over UVA in the 5-to-1 odds range. And still break even!


TJ Warren drops 41 on Pitt. ACCPOY.

My hero! Got my vote.

[PackMan97]

TJ Warren drops 41 on Pitt. ACCPOY.

I doubt it. TJ Warren hasn't even won an ACC Player of the Week yet, no way he gets POY....when was the last time the player that leads the ACC in scoring and fg% hasn't won an ACC POW? A bit mind blowing, imo. I should also mention TJ is #10 in Rebounds, #1 in Offensive Boards, #3 in Steals.

[FerryFor50]

I doubt it. TJ Warren hasn't even won an ACC Player of the Week yet....when was the last time the player that leads the ACC in scoring and fg% hasn't won an ACC POW? A bit mind blowing, imo.

He might get it this week...

[PackMan97]

He might get it this week...

LOL! We'll have to wait and see what type of heroics come from the Devils/Cheats game.

[pfrduke]

Tournament seeding update after Monday's results:

Carolina keeps its hope for a 2 seed alive (thanks to nocilla for pointing that out above). Notre Dame ends its inaugural ACC season at 6-12; of the teams it could tie with, it holds the tiebreaker over Miami and Georgia Tech but would lose the tiebreaker to Wake. It's currently 11th and that's the most likely end result when the week plays out.

Pitt's loss means that it can't get the 5 seed without beating Clemson and that FSU remains alive for that spot. In a three-way tie with FSU and Clemson, FSU would be 5, Clemson 6, and Pitt 7. If Clemson can beat Miami tonight, (or, alternatively, if FSU can't beat BC on the road) FSU would be eliminated from 5 seed contention and it would go to the winner of Clemson-Pitt. NC State didn't quite sew up a bye to Thursday, but it's pretty close. Miami is the only team from the bottom 6 that can tie, and Miami would win a tiebreaker in that scenario by virtue of its win over UNC. Of course, all the Pack has to do is beat BC at home this weekend to eliminate that possibility (and a Miami loss to Clemson tonight would do the same). The Pack could conceivably finish tied for 6th and climb as high as the 7 seed (Clemson holds the tiebreaker over NCSU in all scenarios that involve those teams tied at 9-9, but State has the advantage over both FSU and Maryland if those teams finish with the same record) - a win this weekend guarantees they will be no lower than 8.

[pfrduke]

Also, Pitt's had a very different first half and second half (roughly speaking) of the conference season. In the first half, they were blowing teams out - even including the losses to Duke and Syracuse, their first 8 games had 5 wins of 7 points or more, 4 in double digits, and they outscored opponents by a total of 71 points. Since then, they've played 9 straight single digit games that have included 4 overtime periods and resulted in a grand total scoring margin (for those games) of -1. So on the season, Pitt is still 70 points better than conference opponents, but that margin effectively hasn't moved much since the start of February.

[FerryFor50]

How valuable is Jerami Grant to Syracuse?

Well without him, Cuse is down 8 at the half. To Georgia Tech.

Still an entire half left, but a Syracuse loss opens up the door to the #2 seed in the ACC tournament... Not to mention a #1 seed in the NCAA....

[sporthenry]

How valuable is Jerami Grant to Syracuse?

Well without him, Cuse is down 8 at the half. To Georgia Tech.

Still an entire half left, but a Syracuse loss opens up the door to the #2 seed in the ACC tournament... Not to mention a #1 seed in the NCAA....

At this point, I think its pretty hard to give 'Cuse a 1 seed. If the committee uses the eye test at all, you can't overlook the past few weeks.

[CDu]

How valuable is Jerami Grant to Syracuse?

Well without him, Cuse is down 8 at the half. To Georgia Tech.

Still an entire half left, but a Syracuse loss opens up the door to the #2 seed in the ACC tournament... Not to mention a #1 seed in the NCAA....

Syracuse was not a terribly deep team to begin with. Without 2 of their top 8, it is tough to maintain eliteness.

[FerryFor50]

At this point, I think its pretty hard to give 'Cuse a 1 seed. If the committee uses the eye test at all, you can't overlook the past few weeks.

Agreed, but a loss tonight puts them out of the conversation completely, I think, outside of an ACC tournament title.

Keep in mind that the committee does factor in injuries when reviewing a team's resume...

[FerryFor50]

Syracuse was not a terribly deep team to begin with. Without 2 of their top 8, it is tough to maintain eliteness.

Other than Grant, who are they missing?

[CDu]

Other than Grant, who are they missing?

Coleman.

[FerryFor50]

Coleman.

Ah right. But they never really had him anyway...

[CDu]

Ah right. But they never really had him anyway...

They had him for half the season..

[sporthenry]

Agreed, but a loss tonight puts them out of the conversation completely, I think, outside of an ACC tournament title.

Keep in mind that the committee does factor in injuries when reviewing a team's resume...

True, but usually the committee is worried about if a player is going to play, not necessarily who missed what game. Not to mention, these struggles go back to Pitt, NC State, and BC when Grant was healthy.

[FerryFor50]

They had him for half the season..

Kind of. He played very limited minutes due to his knee issues. They finally shut him down in January. He wasn't terribly effective outside of giving Cuse 10-15 minutes tops. It would have been like Duke losing Hairston to injury.

[CDu]

Kind of. He played very limited minutes due to his knee issues. They finally shut him down in January. He wasn't terribly effective outside of giving Cuse 10-15 minutes tops. It would have been like Duke losing Hairston to injury.

He was still integral in their 3-man center rotation. Take him and Grant out and you go from a 5-man rotation on the back line of that zone to a 3-man "rotation."

It adds up. Coleman wasn't a star, but losing even a role player matters when you aren't deep.

[FerryFor50]

He was still integral in their 3-man center rotation. Take him and Grant out and you go from a 5-man rotation on the back line of that zone to a 3-man "rotation."

It adds up. Coleman wasn't a star, but losing even a role player matters when you aren't deep.

Eh that is on Boeheim. He plays a pretty short rotation by design. He has big bodies on the bench that he just doesn't play for whatever reason.

Tyler Roberson, for example, was the #14 PF recruit. He only now is getting playing time out of necessity. Gbinijie has given them good minutes, but didn't play very much earlier in the season.

Syracuse had depth, but neglected to use it. Now they get to suffer for it. :)

[-jk]

GaTech is barfing in the gutter...

Sigh.

-jk

[FerryFor50]

GaTech is barfing in the gutter...

Sigh.

-jk

This is part of Boeheim's deal with the devil...

[Duvall]

GaTech is barfing in the gutter...

Sigh.

-jk

I mean, they just aren't very good.

[jimrowe0]

Ga tech up by 4 with a minute and a half left. Tech ball

[Duvall]

How. Do People. Not Understand. How This Works.

[jimrowe0]

Cuse has been spiraling. Gtech is going to take this one. Syracuse peaked to early

[Newton_14]

Cuse has been spiraling. Gtech is going to take this one. Syracuse peaked to early
Did Grant play?

This is bizarre.

[OldPhiKap]

Big win for GT. Would hate to be heading to Tallahassee if I were Syracuse . . . .

[FerryFor50]

Did Grant play?

This is bizarre.

You missed several posts... ;)

[Duvall]

Did Grant play?

Nope.


This is bizarre.

Yup.

[DukeDiva]

Georgia Tech! Wow, my husband is a Tech alum and this year has been painful. Finally a gutsy win for Tech. Cuse looked bad out there.

[JonnyWonder]

I have, on occasion, found myself frustrated when Coach K sometimes implements stall ball rather early and we see our lead dwindle.

But after seeing Georgia Tech jack up bad shots with 20 seconds left on the shot clock when they are up with 3 minutes left in the game, I have decided it is MUCH better to be disciplined early on.

Now we just have to beat Wake and send Carolina to hell.

[CameronDuke]

So if we win out and Cuse beats FSU Sunday we both end up 14-4 in the ACC and unc ends up 13-5. Who gets tiebreaker for 2nd in ACC if this occurs?

[OldPhiKap]

So if we win out and Cuse beats FSU Sunday we both end up 14-4 in the ACC and unc ends up 13-5. Who gets tiebreaker for 2nd in ACC if this occurs?

Duke has the tiebreaker over Syracuse.

[Dev11]

So if we win out and Cuse beats FSU Sunday we both end up 14-4 in the ACC and unc ends up 13-5. Who gets tiebreaker for 2nd in ACC if this occurs?

With a better record over top seed Virginia, we would be the 2 seed.

[CameronDuke]

Duke has the tiebreaker over Syracuse.

Thanks. Obviously a lot can happen between now and Sunday but I feel good about our chances to lock up the 2 seed for the ACC tourney now. Not to look too far ahead but I'm hoping for a UVA vs Duke ACC championship on Sunday March 16th in Greensboro and this significantly bettered our position for that!

[CDu]

The Cuse tailspin continues. They're now in a 3-way tie for 2nd in the ACC. Well, technically they're in a 2-way tie with UNC and 0.5 game up on us. But if we win tomorrow, it's a three-way tie. That would put Syracuse in 2nd, UNC 3rd, and us 4th.

Of course, Syracuse has a tough test coming up on the road against FSU, and we have the UNC game. If we win out, we are #2 in the ACC! If we lose to Wake and beat UNC, we're #3. If we beat wake and lose to UNC, we're either #4 or #3 (depending upon whether Syracuse beats FSU).

But the moral of the story is still simple: beat UNC. (and beat Wake, too, of course).

The injuries have done a number on Syracuse at a bad time.

[CameronDuke]

The Cuse tailspin continues. They're now in a 3-way tie for 2nd in the ACC. Well, technically they're in a 2-way tie with UNC and 0.5 game up on us. But if we win tomorrow, it's a three-way tie. That would put Syracuse in 2nd, UNC 3rd, and us 4th.

Of course, Syracuse has a tough test coming up on the road against FSU, and we have the UNC game. If we win out, we are #2 in the ACC! If we lose to Wake and beat UNC, we're either #3 or #2 (depending upon whether or not Cuse beats FSU). If we beat wake and lose to UNC, we're either #4 or #3 (again, depending upon whether Syracuse beats FSU).

But the moral of the story is still simple: beat UNC. (and beat Wake, too, of course).

The injuries have done a number on Syracuse at a bad time.

Just win, baby! If we handle our business these next two games which I fully anticipate we will do led by the best coach in March ever, we are the 2 seed and sitting pretty for some fun in Greensboro.

[Duke95]

Wait, what? Did GT really beat Syracuse? Whoa. That is a complete shock. On senior night no less.

[roywhite]

Ga Tech 67 -- Syracuse 62 (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=400502890)

Quite a game by Tech's big guy, Daniel Miller
15 points on 7-10 FG
6 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals and 6(!) blocks

[CDu]

Ga Tech 67 -- Syracuse 62 (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=400502890)

Quite a game by Tech's big guy, Daniel Miller
15 points on 7-10 FG
6 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals and 6(!) blocks

Both Miller and Golden were terrific. Golden's stat line wasn't fabulous, but he was critical in breaking Syracuse's pressure. He, Miller, and Carter were terrific.

[Cameron]

Wait, what? Did GT really beat Syracuse? Whoa. That is a complete shock. On senior night no less.

It is a surprise that Syracuse wasn't more amped and ready for this game since, as you say, it was senior night in the Carrier Dome against a relatively paltry opponent. Upon consideration of the Orange's overall performance the last month of the season, however, is it really that big a shock?

vs. Notre Dame (15-16, 11th ACC), W 61-55
vs. N.C. State (18-12, 8th ACC), W 56-55
vs. Boston College (8-21, 14th, L 59-62 in OT
@Maryland (16-14, 9th ACC), W 57-55
@Virginia, L 56-75

Despite employing the mysterious 2-3 zone, a secret defense yet to be played by anyone else, Syracuse just isn't a very good team. At this point, IMO the Orange are not even one of the three best teams in the ACC. Virginia, Duke and North Carolina have all performed considerably better over the past month of the season. What would shock me is Syracuse making it out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament alive.

[CDu]

FSU survives a scare at BC. They'll finish at least .500 in ACC play, and have a chance at a huge win this weekend against Syracuse. They have a real shot at making the tourney if they can get that win over Syracuse.

[pfrduke]

ACC seeding update after the night's activity:

Duke controls its destiny for the 2 seed - win out and its theirs, regardless of what happens to Syracuse, by virtue of the win over Virginia. They can now get the 3 seed even with a loss on Saturday if a) they beat Wake and b) Syracuse loses to FSU.
Syracuse will be 2 with a win and a UNC win (or a Duke loss to Wake), 3 with a win and a Duke 2-0 week, 3 with a loss and a Duke win over UNC, 3 with a loss and a Duke 0-2 week, and 4 with a loss and a UNC win.
UNC needs a win and a Syracuse loss for 2, a win and a Syracuse win for 3, and will be 4 with a loss

Winner of Pitt-Clemson is 5. If Pitt loses, it's 6 with an FSU loss and 7 with an FSU win. If Clemson loses, it's 6 with an FSU loss; where it sits with an FSU win depends on whether Duke (Clemson's best win) or Syracuse (what would be FSU's best win if it ties with Clemson) is higher in the standings.

FSU could finish as low as 9 - they lose a 3-way tiebreak with Maryland and State at 9-9 (NCSU would be 7 and Maryland 8 in that scenario). FSU is no lower than 7 with a win.
State holds any tiebreaker over Maryland, so the only way Maryland comes off the 9 line is to beat Virginia. Tonight's results lock in the top 9 - all the teams mentioned thus far won't have to play Wednesday.

From the Wednesday contingent, Virginia Tech is locked into 15. BC is 14 with a loss. They can get to 13 only with a win and two Wake losses (BC holds the tiebreaker). Georgia Tech holds tiebreakers over Wake, BC, or any combination of the 3. Miami will be the 10 seed with a win; similarly, Wake will be the 10 seed with 2 wins. If Wake loses to Duke and beats Miami (and Georgia Tech loses), Wake is 10, Miami is 11, Notre Dame is 12. If that same scenario happens and Georgia Tech wins (putting all 4 teams at 6-12), the order is Wake 10, Miami 11, Georgia Tech 12, Notre Dame 13. If Miami beats Wake (and Wake loses to Duke), Notre Dame actually holds any head to head tiebreaker over Georgia Tech, so it would finish 11 and Georgia Tech 12.