Bubble Rap 2014

[tommy]

I know we already have an "ACC Bubble" thread going, but I thought some on the boards might be interested, as in past years, in discussing the other, non-ACC bubble situation as well. Mods, of course, feel free to merge the threads in some way if you think it's appropriate.

So I'll start. Last night had a few games of importance to the bubble situation. First of all, Minnesota had a huge win against Iowa. Even though their conference record is worse than Nebraska's (and they lost to them in their only meeting of the year), I think the Gophers still may be in the best position to be the 6th team from the Big 10 to get in. It's close between the two of them. But Minnesota is very much a bubble team, and a late season win over a solid tournament team like Iowa has to help big time.

Some may consider Kansas State a bubble team, but I don't. They are 9-6 in the Big 12, have six top-50 wins including the big one over Kansas, and are RPI #39. They do have two bad losses, but that's not enough to keep them from being in good shape. Last night's win at Texas Tech was fiine, but they do have a tough closing schedule, that being Iowa State on Saturday, then at Oklahoma State, and finishing with Baylor at home. They'd have to really collapse to not get in.

Missouri laid a big egg last night, losing to Georgia. Missouri has 19 wins and is 7-8 in the SEC, while Georgia now, despite having only 16 wins, is 10-5 in the league, and swept two from Missouri. Missouri really needed that game last night. They're still sitting at 49 in the RPI (Georgia is at 82), but with only one top-50 win, and their RPI will go down with a weak remaining schedule. Besides their RPI number, Georgia's problem is that, despite their good record in-conference, those two wins against Missouri are their only top-50 wins on the year, and they have three hideous losses. I'm not going to be surprised if both of these teams get left out, and the SEC is a two-bid league. Amazing.

Tonight, very marginal bubble team West Virginia has a big opportunity to improve its resume with a game at Iowa State. Baylor, 18-9 overall and #40 RPI, but only 6-8 in the league, is at Texas. Several of the middle-of-the-pack SEC dreck play each other for the right to make a losing argument that they belong in the conversation. Stanford and Arizona State face off, though I think they're both in pretty good shape already.

[OldPhiKap]

Missouri laid a big egg last night, losing to Georgia. Missouri has 19 wins and is 7-8 in the SEC, while Georgia now, despite having only 16 wins, is 10-5 in the league, and swept two from Missouri. Missouri really needed that game last night. They're still sitting at 49 in the RPI (Georgia is at 82), but with only one top-50 win, and their RPI will go down with a weak remaining schedule. Besides their RPI number, Georgia's problem is that, despite their good record in-conference, those two wins against Missouri are their only top-50 wins on the year, and they have three hideous losses. I'm not going to be surprised if both of these teams get left out, and the SEC is a two-bid league. Amazing.

I don't think my Dawg pals will disagree when I say -- UGa is really really bad this year. Not sure if they just match well with Mizzou or if lightning struck twice.

[FerryFor50]

I don't think my Dawg pals will disagree when I say -- UGa is really really bad this year. Not sure if they just match well with Mizzou or if lightning struck twice.

I think Mizzou gets in over UGA, unless UGA goes on a crazy end of year run in the SEC tourny and beats Florida and Kentucky. :)

[TexHawk]

I don't think my Dawg pals will disagree when I say -- UGa is really really bad this year. Not sure if they just match well with Mizzou or if lightning struck twice.

"Lightning striking twice" is a phrase usually reserved for when bad teams beat good ones. Kenpom only has them 20 spots apart (61 v 81). For the 3rd straight year, Frank Haith has rolled out a tremendously awful defensive team (Kenpom AdjD 143-99-144). They can make up for that when their offense is awesome like in 2012 (though they still lost in the first round to Norfolk St). But when they are average or even slightly better than average, they still can't stop anyone.

[Wander]

Some may consider Kansas State a bubble team, but I don't. They are 9-6 in the Big 12, have six top-50 wins including the big one over Kansas, and are RPI #39. They do have two bad losses, but that's not enough to keep them from being in good shape. Last night's win at Texas Tech was fiine, but they do have a tough closing schedule, that being Iowa State on Saturday, then at Oklahoma State, and finishing with Baylor at home. They'd have to really collapse to not get in.

Tonight, very marginal bubble team West Virginia has a big opportunity to improve its resume with a game at Iowa State. Baylor, 18-9 overall and #40 RPI, but only 6-8 in the league, is at Texas.

The Big 12 is so good and deep this year, I think anyone going .500 or better will get in, and maybe even a sub-.500 club or two. And remember, they actually have a home-and-home round-robin schedule, so comparing conference records is actually meaningful.

[tommy]

After not only blowing a big chance to move up in facing Iowa State tonight, West Virginia not only lost, but got blown out. I think they're clearly out at this point, not really even in the discussion.

After losing to Texas tonight (though they did come back to make it close) Baylor is starting to look shaky. They still have the good RPI, but come on, they're 6-9 in conference, with remaining games vs. Texas Tech, vs. Iowa State, and at Kansas State. Texas Tech is the easiest, but they already beat Baylor once this year.

I guess Tennessee's kinda on the bubble now after tonight's win over woeful Mississippi State. Tennessee has 17 wins and is at least over .500 in the league (although so are LSU and Ole Miss after wins tonight), but still they're 56 in the RPI with only one top-50 win, that being the now-unfathomable 35 point blowout win over Virginia, where the Vols scored 87 points. Or someone wearing Vols' jerseys did.

Richmond took a big step back tonight, losing to A-10 doormat George Mason. The Spiders have 18 wins, a 46 RPI and a good non conference SOS. But Mason is 152 in the RPI -- not the kind of game a mid-major on the bubble wants to be losing late in the season. The question is: how many A-10 teams are really going to get in? It's crowded -- three or four are locks and two or three more, including Richmond are in the mix. But they're not all going to get in.

Nebraska took a hit tonight too, losing to the mediocre Illini. The Cornhuskers are still 8-7 in the league, and have a 47 RPI, but still have only 16 wins overall and three losses to teams at 100+ in the RPI. I don't like it.

Overall, not a great night for teams on the bubble, looking to improve their resumes.

Tomorrow night: Southern Miss, a bubble team, has what should be an easy one at home against FIU. Marquette and Georgetown, both of whom would like to think they are serious contenders for a bid -- but I don't see how -- face off. Oregon would get a huge boost if they could beat UCLA at Pauley.

And in non-bubble-related action, the top two teams in the America East face off, as Stonybrook looks for the sweep against the conference leader, our old friends from Vermont.

[PackMan97]

I'd definitely say NC State just played themselves off the bubble. A win against Syracuse or UNC-CHeat and they are likely in the conversation, instead they will more than likely finish the season without a win over a Top 50 program.

[ChillinDuke]

After not only blowing a big chance to move up in facing Iowa State tonight, West Virginia not only lost, but got blown out. I think they're clearly out at this point, not really even in the discussion.

After losing to Texas tonight (though they did come back to make it close) Baylor is starting to look shaky. They still have the good RPI, but come on, they're 6-9 in conference, with remaining games vs. Texas Tech, vs. Iowa State, and at Kansas State. Texas Tech is the easiest, but they already beat Baylor once this year.

I guess Tennessee's kinda on the bubble now after tonight's win over woeful Mississippi State. Tennessee has 17 wins and is at least over .500 in the league (although so are LSU and Ole Miss after wins tonight), but still they're 56 in the RPI with only one top-50 win, that being the now-unfathomable 35 point blowout win over Virginia, where the Vols scored 87 points. Or someone wearing Vols' jerseys did.

Richmond took a big step back tonight, losing to A-10 doormat George Mason. The Spiders have 18 wins, a 46 RPI and a good non conference SOS. But Mason is 152 in the RPI -- not the kind of game a mid-major on the bubble wants to be losing late in the season. The question is: how many A-10 teams are really going to get in? It's crowded -- three or four are locks and two or three more, including Richmond are in the mix. But they're not all going to get in.

Nebraska took a hit tonight too, losing to the mediocre Illini. The Cornhuskers are still 8-7 in the league, and have a 47 RPI, but still have only 16 wins overall and three losses to teams at 100+ in the RPI. I don't like it.

Overall, not a great night for teams on the bubble, looking to improve their resumes.

Tomorrow night: Southern Miss, a bubble team, has what should be an easy one at home against FIU. Marquette and Georgetown, both of whom would like to think they are serious contenders for a bid -- but I don't see how -- face off. Oregon would get a huge boost if they could beat UCLA at Pauley.

And in non-bubble-related action, the top two teams in the America East face off, as Stonybrook looks for the sweep against the conference leader, our old friends from Vermont.

Was that a mini potshot at my mighty Seawolves?

Didn't go unnoticed. :D

Hope they smoke the Catamounts.

- Chillin

[ChillinDuke]

Was that a mini potshot at my mighty Seawolves?

Didn't go unnoticed. :D

Hope they smoke the Catamounts.

- Chillin

My own kidding aside, I just checked KenPom and was a bit surprised at what I saw.

First of all, Vermont is now all the way up to #60 in KenPom (106 O; 48 D). Did not see that one coming. They are 13-1 in conference.

Second of all, the mighty, mighty Seawolves of Stony Brook are #159, 20-8, 12-2 in conference (America East), one of only 3 teams with an overall winning record from that conference (Albany), and battling Vermont for conference supremacy.

So in a way, this really is bubble-related action tonight! Go 'Wolves!

- Chillin

[tommy]

I didn't update from Thursday's action, but first of all Oregon squeaked out a double OT win over UCLA on the road. Great looking win on the resume. Except that UCLA's two best players didn't play -- suspended for the game. So how does the committee consider that win? I don't know, but I know if it was me I wouldn't be all that impressed that it took two OT's to beat such a depleted team, especially after blowing a double digit lead in the second half. Still, the Ducks are at 32 in the RPI, which is a good, solid number, and are definitely in the mix. Just can't blow it against USC now.

And now four SEC teams that think they're worthy of the tournament won on Thursday night, all of which are now over .500 in the league. I think they're all pretty sub-par, but here goes. Arkansas made the headline, winning at Kentucky. Very nice win. They're now at 55 on the RPI. Tennessee beat Mississippi, and they're up to 51 in the RPI, and they're killing Vandy today. They may be on the move. LSU beat the Aggies, which is nothing special, but they do have that win over Kentucky (and an OT loss to them). If they can somehow, you know, beat Florida today, they'll have a legitimate shot. Ole Miss is also 8-7 now in the league with the win over Alabama, which broke a 4 game losing streak for the Rebels. Still sitting at 81 in the RPI, Ole Miss still has a lot of work to do. And then there's Georgia, two games ahead of all these guys at 10-5 in the league, but with an 80 RPI. Still way out of it too, in my mind.

[tommy]

I know I'm pretty much talking to myself on this thread, but what the hey.

With all the tumult in the top 25 with all the upsets, there was a lot of holding serve among the bubble teams on Saturday. With a few exceptions. The big losers from yesterday's action appear to be Richmond, which was borderline bubble anyway, and was beaten by a pretty bad Rhode Island team. This on the heels of a loss earlier in the week to lousy George Mason, and the Spiders are in deep trouble.

Marquette, also a fringe bubble team, was blown out by Villanova. I think the Warriors (I still like to call them that) are done.

Minnesota lost at Michigan, but OK, no big shame in that.

Cal is teetering a bit. Their overall profile still is OK, and they do have the earlier win over Arizona in the game Ashley got hurt in, but they lost a big showdown against Arizona State after getting blown out earlier in the week in Tucson, and are now 3-9 against the Top 50, and have a 51 RPI themselves. Also in the Pac-12, Colorado suffered a bad loss yesterday against Utah. The Buffs still sit at 30 in the RPI and do have that earlier season win over Kansas, and have 20 wins already, so they should be fine.

Pretty much everyone else on or close to the bubble won yesterday. Some wins were more impressive than others. Dayton's win over UMass was a big one. Of course, VCU beating St. Louis. With that win, and a 15 RPI, VCU isn't even a bubble team anymore. They're a lock. K-State is nobody's bubble team either, especially after beating Iowa State yesterday, and Oklahoma State, with Smart leading the way, is off the bubble too after beating Kansas. The Cowboys are in.

Xavier (RPI 46) took a big step forward with the upset of Creighton. As noted above, Arizona State's win over Cal was a big one as well.

The rest of these were nice, but likely didn't move the needle much: GW beating George Mason, St Joe's beating the Bonnies, Baylor (I think they're in anyway) beating Texas Tech, Providence beating Seton Hall, St John's beating DePaul, Nebraska beating Northwestern, Oregon beating USC, Tennessee crushing Vandy, Arkansas beating the Dawgs, and Missouri beating Mississippi State. Those were all games those teams had to win, but they were all downside. Win, and you were expected to win, lose and it's a Dunkirk.

Georgetown didn't play this weekend. They're a pretty fringe bubble team, IMO. They've only got 16 wins overall (but four of them are top-50 quality), but in any event their two games remaining are against Creighton and at Villanova this week. The Hoyas (current RPI 61) can knock real hard on the door by winning both of those games. Unfortunately for them, na ga happen.

[-jk]

You may be talking to yourself, Tommy, but lots of us are reading. I really don't have the time to knowledgeably post here (damn kids!), but I learn a lot.

Thanks!

-jk

[OldPhiKap]

You may be talking to yourself, Tommy, but lots of us are reading. I really don't have the time to knowledgeably post here (damn kids!), but I learn a lot.

Thanks!

-jk

Absolutely agree, great to hear a breakdown from a knowledgeable source.

Outside of the ACC, I know more about what is happening on Good Luck, Charlie than the middle of the Big ## or anything that tips off after 9:00 est.

[Buckeye Devil]

I think Ohio State is approaching if not on the bubble. The best pre-conference win was at Marquette. Since they started Big10 play they have gone a less than stellar 9-8 including 2 losses to Penn State. The only good wins they have are at Iowa and Wisconsin. Every other good team in the league has handled them with relatively ease. They will likely conclude the regular season 22-9, having lost 3 in a row after losing to Indiana today and assuming a loss to Michigan State at home (even with Sparty's depleted ranks).

I just don't see how any committee member could get too excited about the Buckeyes' resume' given a pretty weak non-conference schedule and horrific losses in the league. This obviously isn't a very good team which is severely lacking star power and offense.

[TexHawk]

They will likely conclude the regular season 22-9, having lost 3 in a row after losing to Indiana today and assuming a loss to Michigan State at home (even with Sparty's depleted ranks).
(a) Sparty isn't depleted anymore. Dawson-Payne-Appling played 25-25-34 minutes on Saturday.
(b) Non-depleted Sparty still lost to a horrific Illinois team on Saturday.
(c) Non-depleted Sparty barely beat Ohio State at home a couple months ago in OT.

I have no idea how you can assume a home loss for OSU against them.

(d) I still don't want anything to do with Sparty in the NCAA tournament.

[Turk]

Tommy, I'm keeping an eye open but there isn't really anyone I'm really rooting for to make it; all the non-Duke teams I like are in pretty good shape.

Lunardi tweeted his bubble earlier this morning (presumably updated after Saturday's action):

IN: 40-Cal; 41-Byu, 42-Bay, 43-OkSt, 44-Ark; 45-Ore, 46-Tenn, 47-Minn.

(Teams 48-68 are the one conference autobids).

OUT: Prov, Neb, StJohn, FlaSt. NEXT: Mizzou, Day, SoMiss, Marq. MORE: Gtown, LaTech, Utah, Richmond.

[tommy]

I think Ohio State is approaching if not on the bubble. The best pre-conference win was at Marquette. Since they started Big10 play they have gone a less than stellar 9-8 including 2 losses to Penn State. The only good wins they have are at Iowa and Wisconsin. Every other good team in the league has handled them with relatively ease. They will likely conclude the regular season 22-9, having lost 3 in a row after losing to Indiana today and assuming a loss to Michigan State at home (even with Sparty's depleted ranks).

I just don't see how any committee member could get too excited about the Buckeyes' resume' given a pretty weak non-conference schedule and horrific losses in the league. This obviously isn't a very good team which is severely lacking star power and offense.

I think you're selling the Buckeyes a little short. Listen, their fall has been pretty steep. It's easy to forget this is a team that was ranked #3 in the nation as late as early January.

I don't know where their RPI will sit after the Indiana loss, but it was 20 beforehand. Their best nonconference win actually wasn't Marquette, but rather North Dakota State, whose Bison are somehow rated #40 in the RPI currently. But in conference they have road wins over Wisconsin (a potential #1 seed) and Iowa, both in February, plus a win over bubble team Minnesota, also in February. That's four top-50 wins. The Penn State losses are ugly, no doubt, as is the Indiana loss, but for teams in their range, most of them have a couple of losses like that.

I don't expect them to beat Michigan State either, but you never know. These are two teams who really, really need a win. How things have changed since their first meeting, huh? But even if the Buckeyes lose to the Spartans, I think it would also take a first round Big 10 Tournament loss, plus a lot of other bad things to happen, including a lot of bid-stealing in other conference tournaments, for them to be denied.

[tommy]

OK so in my full-on, why-am-I-doing-this mode, I’m going to take a shot at making some sense of the bubble. I created a table, current as of today, that shows each team that could be construed to be on the bubble (if I missed some, let me know) and charted out their record, conference record (I know, not a factor), RPI, SOS (I know, it’s already a component of RPI), KenPom rating, record against the RPI top 50, and total number of losses against teams 100+ in the RPI. Otherwise known as: bad losses.

Then I tried to group the bubble teams in order of how I perceive they stand, or should stand. Teams within a group are awfully tough to separate from each other, at least for me, based on these numbers, so I’m not. Teams within a group are not listed in any particular order. A lot of this is inexact, so your mileage may vary. Seriously, if I should’ve placed a team in a different group than I have, let me know. That’s what I’m hoping to stimulate here – some discussion! Also, I know there are factors other than these that can go into the committee’s decisions – how they’ve played lately, head-to-head, injuries, etc. Meaning this is not comprehensive, but just an attempt to bring some order out of disorder. Of course, the number of teams that get off the bubble and into the tournament is directly linked to the conference tournament results – how many bids get “stolen” etc. OK here goes (chart to come below):

The first group is K-State and Oklahoma State. These teams, to me, are in. Solid in RPI, SOS, KenPom, with 7 and 4 wins against the Top 50, respectfully.

Colorado is their own group, and I think they’re next. Very strong SOS, but pretty weak in KenPom. Three top 50 wins, and no bad losses. I think they’re slightly ahead of the next group.

Next group is ASU and Baylor. Both have solid top-50 wins. Baylor’s schedule is very strong, but ASU is ahead in the RPI. Both are significantly ahead of Colorado in KenPom, though, so maybe the three should be grouped together. In fact, now that I look at this for the 50th time today, one could make the argument that Baylor’s profile actually looks as good as OkState’s, especially with the SOS and the six top-50 wins, but I think Ok State is going to get a little credit for Smart having been out, and they have two more overall wins. Regardless, the Big 12 has three teams right at the top of my list.

Next group consists of five teams: BYU, Tennessee, Minnesota, Stanford, and Oregon. All have decent RPI’s and pretty good schedules (Minnesota’s and Tennessee’s are very strong) and OK-to-better in KenPom. Hard to separate these five, really. BYU will be hurt by their four bad losses, though. I would’ve put Tennessee at the top of this group (not that they’re in any order as is) but that 2-6 record against the Top 50 holds them back.

Then I’ve got a mini-group here with George Washington and St. Joseph’s. I only moved them down a bit below the group of 5 just discussed because their schedules are significantly worse.

Then comes a group of four: Nebraska, Cal, Dayton, and Florida State. All have RPI’s in the 50’s and three top-50 wins. Then they begin to diverge a bit, with Nebraska having the strongest schedule but FSU being the highest rated in KenPom. FSU only has one bad loss, the only one in this group able to say that. Their schedule is also the second best in the group, so if I had to say, I’d probably put the Noles at the top of this group right now.

Now comes a group that I’m pretty sure has some serious work to do: Xavier, Arkansas, Providence, and Missouri. They’re actually similar to the GW/St Joe’s group, with all four of them having played schedules in the 70’s and 80’s (not good) but unlike those two, these four have RPI’s down in the mid-40s to high-50’s, while GW and St Joe’s were in the 30’s. The schedule weakness is what separates this group from the FSU/Nebraska group right above them, though they do, as a group, have less bad losses than the FSU group does.

Next is a group of teams clearly out as of now, and all are former Big East foes: Georgetown, St. John’s, and Marquette. All have RPI’s in the 60’s; Georgetown has played a good schedule, and beaten some teams, but also have three bad losses. Marquette and St. John’s have played a lot of good teams; they just haven’t beaten them.

The last group consists of Richmond, Green Bay, Utah, Southern Miss, Clemson, and UNLV. UNLV? What are they doing on this list? Dunno. Can’t explain myself sometimes. But these teams have no shot as of now, as they either have really low RPI’s, terrible schedules, have a bunch of very bad losses, or some combination thereof. Read em and weep.

OK, here’s the chart. Now what do y’all think?




Record

Conf Rec

RPI

SOS

KenPom

vs Top 50

Losses to 100+



K State

20-9

10-6

35

40

42

7-5

2



Ok State

19-10

7-9

45

37

27

4-9

1













Colorado

20-9

9-7

29

12

65

3-7














Ariz St.

21-8

10-6

28

49

34

4-5

1



Baylor

17-10

7-9

42

11

38

6-8

1













BYU

20-10

13-5

36

28

45

3-5

4



Tenn.

17-11

9-7

48

13

23

2-6

2



Minn.

17-12

7-10

47

3

54

3-7

2



Stanford

18-10

9-7

40

27

37

4-7

1



Oregon

20-8

8-8

33

48

29

2-5

1













GW

21-7

9-5

30

85

44

2-5




St Joe's

21-7

11-3

34

75

53

4-4

1













Nebraska

17-11

9-7

54

35

56

3-7

3



Cal

18-11

9-7

51

45

64

3-9

2



Dayton

20-9

8-6

50

55

62

3-5

3



FSU

17-11

8-8

55

43

36

3-7

1













Xavier

20-9

10-6

46

81

41

3-4

2



Arkansas

20-9

9-7

53

77

47

4-5

1



Prov.

19-10

9-7

58

80

49

2-5

1



Missouri

20-9

8-8

49

88

61

2-2

1













GTown

16-12

7-9

60

21

55

4-5

3



St John's

19-11

9-8

62

42

40

1-7

2



Marqt.

17-12

9-7

68

53

57

2-10

1













Richmond

18-11

8-6

64

78

89

3-6

4



Grn Bay

21-5

14-2

52

166

51

1-1

2



Utah

17-9

8-8

80

120

35

4-6

1



So Miss

23-5

12-3

37

164

68

1-1

2



Clemson

18-10

9-7

69

105

50

1-5

3



UNLV

19-10

10-6

100

135

78

1-4

4

[FerryFor50]

Joel Embiid will be sitting out KU's final two games to rest his ailing back. KU plays Texas Tech and WVU. Winnable games, but no sure thing, even with Embiid available.

We could see KU falter and lose their grasp on a claim on a #1 seed.

[JasonEvans]

First of all, Tommy's work here is outstanding. Stunning really. Hard to pick a hole in anything he has done.

You know what sucks about college basketball though? How much winning matters. I have been looking at lot at NC State today, in light of their victory over Pitt last night and TJ Warren's ridiculous performance in that game. State is 18-12, 8-9 in the ACC, and clearly not even on the bubble. For that they can blame 2 wretched losses in games they appeared poised to win -- the Syracuse and UNC games. Against UNC they led by 6 with 1:30 to go and by 4 with 50 seconds to go. Gotta win games like that. Against Syracuse they turned the ball over twice in the final 30 seconds while trying to protect a lead. They also got badly jobbed by the refs calling off a made basket by Warren in the final 20 seconds that could have iced the game for State.

Add those two wins to State's resume and I believe they are just barely on the good side of the bubble. They are currently 18-12 (8-9) with an RPI of 61, SOS of 33, and are 79 in Pomeroy. While the Pom number does not change all that much with the wins (Pom rates efficiency, not whether you win or lose), you can be that the RPI would be more impressive and their record would certainly look a lot better at 20-10 (10-7).

Sigh. Anyone think there is any chance State gets back onto the bubble if they manage to win a couple games in the ACC tourney (for example, they beat Wake and then beat Syracuse) and then play well against their semi-final opponent? Heck, are they even in the conversation if they make the ACC finals?

-Jason "what a wasted season for the Pack -- a waste of TJ Warren's excellence" Evans

[Wander]

You know what sucks about college basketball though? How much winning matters.

I like your posts JE, but what a weird thing to say.

[JasonEvans]

I like your posts JE, but what a weird thing to say.

Yeah, that came out kinda strange. What I meant was that metrics like the RPI make no allowance for coming close. I think it speaks a bit to State's quality that they came within an eyelash of beating a couple very good teams in Syracuse and UNC -- games in which State led pretty much the whole way and seemed in control at times in the final few minutes. As far as the all-important RPI and win-loss records are concerned, State might as well have lost those games by 40 points each.

-Jason "this is probably a futile exercise... ignore me" Evans

[FerryFor50]

Yeah, that came out kinda strange. What I meant was that metrics like the RPI make no allowance for coming close. I think it speaks a bit to State's quality that they came within an eyelash of beating a couple very good teams in Syracuse and UNC -- games in which State led pretty much the whole way and seemed in control at times in the final few minutes. As far as the all-important RPI and win-loss records are concerned, State might as well have lost those games by 40 points each.

-Jason "this is probably a futile exercise... ignore me" Evans

Do the close games get washed out by the blowouts? Like the 35 point beating by Duke? 31 points by UVA? 17 points by Clemson? 15 points by Miami? 14 points by Pitt and UNC?

[vick]

Do the close games get washed out by the blowouts? Like the 35 point beating by Duke? 31 points by UVA? 17 points by Clemson? 15 points by Miami? 14 points by Pitt and UNC?

Yeah, agreed, if anything State would be the beneficiary of a win-loss-centered view of tournament merit (which I actually think is the way they should do it, even acknowledging that efficiency-based metrics are better predictors of future success). They've been outscored by ~4.4 ppg in conference play, which is probably closer to an ordinary 6-11 team than the 8-9 that they actually are.

[tommy]

I'll do an updated table perhaps after Thursday's games, and maybe I'l add a couple of ACC teams to it, like Pitt and State. But so far this week we have the following:

Monday:

Xavier took a definite hit with their loss to Seton Hall. Can't blow games like that at this point in the season. Just can't.
If there had been any remaining doubt about Oklahoma State being in, they removed it by beating Kansas State, earning their 20th win in the process.
Pitt inched closer to the abyss with that loss to State.

Tonight:

Georgetown stayed alive, barely, by upsetting Creighton. Now all the Hoyas need to do is follow that up with a win over Villanova. Not holding my breath.
If there was any doubt remaining about Baylor, they probably removed it by beating Iowa State, earning their 20th win of the year as well. That Big 12 is just tough.
Clemson kept its faint hopes alive with a win over Miami.
FSU still very much in the mix with the win over BC. Now comes the big one -- can they get over the hump with a win over the slumping 'Cuse?
Marquette is done after losing to Providence. The Friars are still in it. I find myself having a hard time getting real excited about that one though.
In progress: Oregon-Arizona State. Winner is in really good shape. Loser: we shall see. Oregon is up 14 early in the second half.

[tommy]

Sorry I haven’t gotten a chance to update the bubble “table” and the performances of the bubble teams over the last week. I would’ve liked to have gotten this up yesterday or the day before, before any of the major conference tournaments had started, but just couldn’t find the time to do it. So for those still interested, here it is. First I’ll put the table, then talk about the teams.

It should be noted that all the talking heads and anyone else talking about how this bubble team or that “is in” is doing a disservice if he fails to note the reality that the size of the bubble is completely dependent on what happens in the conference tournaments. If teams not good enough to get in as at-large teams somehow win their conference tournaments – and this always happens, every year – they “steal” bids from otherwise deserving teams, and reduce the size of the bubble. So all I can do is list the resumes of each team and do so in the general order that I see them lining up as we speak, again trying to create mini-"groups" of teams that seem to be somewhat similarly situated. Where the line is drawn between the ins and the outs is not knowable by Joe Lunardi, Jerry Palm, any other “bracketologist” or me at this point. Because the conference tournaments haven’t been concluded yet. It's always so frustrating to hear these guys, and the Dick Vitales of the world, say this team and that team and every other team they're asked about "should be in" but they never, ever state that a particular bubble team "should be out." Except Bilas, of course. But I digress.

Where I say that I think this team or that is in (and I don’t say it as to very many teams as you’ll see), I mean that there is no scenario in my mind in which enough bids can realistically be stolen that the team in question can be denied a bid, based on its resume. OK here’s the table first:




Record
Conf Record
RPI
SOS
KenPom
vs RPI top 50
loss vs RPI 100+


Oregon
22-8
10-8
26
21
24
4-5
0


Baylor
19-10
9-9
34
10
35
8-8
1


Ariz St
21-10
10-8
38
53
36
4-6
1


Colorado
21-10
10-8
31
12
57
4-7
0












Tennessee
19-11
11-7
43
15
13
2-5
3


BYU
22-11
13-5
35
20
49
3-6
4


Minnesota
18-12
8-10
50
5
52
3-8
2


Stanford
19-11
10-8
45
17
43
4-8
0


Nebraska
19-11
11-7
41
26
47
4-7
3












Pitt
23-8
11-7
44
82
21
1-6
0


GW
23-7
11-5
29
94
40
3-5
0


St Joe's
21-9
11-5
42
71
60
4-5
1












Cal
19-12
10-8
53
31
69
4-9
1


Dayton
22-9
10-6
39
49
51
4-5
3


FSU
18-12
9-9
56
48
39
3-8
1


Xavier
19-11
10-8
49
40
44
3-5
3












Arkansas
21-10
10-8
57
86
55
4-3
2


Providence
20-11
10-8
55
77
53
2-6
1


Missouri
21-10
9-9
52
84
74
2-3
2












Georgetown
17-13
8-10
54
9
50
5-6
4


St. John's
20-11
10-8
59
55
37
1-7
2












Marquette
17-14
9-9
82
57
59
2-10
1


Richmond
18-13
8-8
70
60
93
3-8
4


Green Bay
21-6
14-2
60
163
62
1-1
3


Utah
18-10
9-9
80
119
32
4-7
1


So Miss
24-5
13-3
33
155
61
1-1
2


NC State
19-12
9-9
63
42
78
2-7
3















K State and Oklahoma State are nowhere near the bubble anymore, so they’re not even included in the table. There’s no scenario in which they both don’t get in, and they’ll both likely be single-digit seeds.

Oregon: Nothing to discuss. They’re in. Riding a seven game winning streak, including winning at UCLA and at home against Arizona, with RPI having risen significantly as a result, with 22 wins overall against a good schedule, they’re not even a bubble team anymore. Oh, make it eight as they beat Oregon St. in the Pac-12 tourney opener.
Baylor: locked it up with down-the-stretch wins over definite tournament teams Iowa State and (at) Kansas State. With 8 Top 50 wins and that very strong SOS (and RPI) there’ s no keeping them out. Tonight’s opening round Big 12 win over TCU certainly eliminated any doubt.

ASU: thought they were in the clear, till they dropped their last two games, and dropped 10 critical spots in the RPI, from 28 to 38. No disgrace losing at Oregon, but following up with a loss to the Beavers? Can’t do that at this time of year when you’re fighting for your life. Still their overall numbers are pretty good, but they’d breathe easier in Tempe if they could win a Pac-12 tourney game (probably against Stanford) and re-seal it.

Colorado: The Buffs sealed it with win last Wednesday at Stanford. Even the loss over the weekend to Cal won’t knock them out. Still zero in the bad losses column. They struggled in the first round of the Pac-12 tonight, barely beating terrible USC, but they got the W. I don’t understand exactly the low KenPom number, but regardless, they’ve got to be in.

Tennessee: This team is on fire, with three huge blowouts in a row, albeit over non-tournament teams. Still, their RPI has gone up a few points , their SOS is very good, they did get to 11-7 in the league, somewhat breaking away from the pack in the middle of that conference, and I think they’re in good shape. KenPom of 13 looks really good too.

BYU: Pretty much held serve with their performance in the conference tournament, beating a couple of teams they were supposed to beat, then losing to Gonzaga in the finals. Will it be enough?

Minnesota: only played once since last update, beating Penn State. Big deal. Too bad for them their first conference tournament game is a rematch with the Nittany Lions, so even winning that won’t help much. They may have to win one more. Overall resume isn’t bad, but I don’t know. Just doesn’t “pop” for me – and would be relatively easy to justify leaving them out unless they make at least a mini-run in the B10 tourney.

Stanford: Johnny, Johnny, Johnny. What are we going to do with you? I thought you were in pretty good shape, until the late swoon where the Cardinal lost three straight, at the Arizona schools and then, crucially, at home to Colorado. Stanford sneaked away with a one point win over Utah at home on Saturday, but this team is right there in the middle of the bubble. Certainly have to beat woeful Wazzoo in the tournament opener, or fuhgeddaboudit. They’re up eight late as I write this. Winning two (round 2 would be against Arizona State) would feel a lot better than winning just one.

Nebraska: The Huskers have really helped themselves in the last week or so, winning three straight to get to 11-7 in the Big 10, with the obvious big one being beating Wisconsin on Sunday. Their RPI has soared. A lot of prognosticators think Nebraska is in, and they probably are. Basketball school.

Pitt: Their overall resume seems good enough, with the 23 wins, 44 RPI, 21 KenPom, and no bad losses. But that schedule. Ugh. And when you really line up their resumes against teams they’re competing with on the bubble – teams like GW, Nebraska, St. Joe’s, Stanford, BYU, and others, it doesn’t seem clear to me that Pitt’s is better, at all. They’ll probably make it harder on themselves by losing to Wake tomorrow, but even if they get by Wake, unless they win one more in the ACC’s, I think this team is on shaky ground.

GW: Nice win last week over top-50 St. Joseph’s. Decent overall numbers, very good earlier wins over Creighton and VCU and no bad losses. Let’s see how they do in the A-10 tournament (first game is vs. UMass-Rhode Island winner) and where the line is drawn.

St. Joe’s: Hurt themselves badly with not just the (excusable) loss to GW, but following it up on Sunday with the loss to LaSalle. RPI is sinking as a result. I think GW has moved ahead of them now, so this team may need to do a little work in the A-10. They open against the Dayton/Fordham winner.

Cal: Tough team to figure. Been all over the map. Last stretch: lost four of their last six, including a big one at home to Utah, only to turn around and beat Colorado, almost certainly a tournament team. Unless they make a really nice run in the Pac-12 Tournament, the Bears better hope there are very few, if any, bid stealers out there. First up is Colorado again. The win last week was in Berkeley, and by just a single point. Better do it again.

Dayton: The Flyers have played very well down the stretch, winning nine of their last 10, including the last three, over UMass, at St. Louis, and at home over Richmond. The first two are certain tournament teams, and Richmond, while they’re unlikely to make it now, was on the bubble for awhile. Dayton’s RPI and SOS numbers have improved markedly since the last update, and I think they have a pretty good chance to get in.

Florida State: Not much has changed for the Noles, having snuck by BC and then having been beaten soundly by Syracuse. I’m not that impressed with their numbers or their overall resume. I think they need to do a little damage in Greensboro to get a bid.

Xavier may be in some trouble. They lost twice since the last update, the first – to Seton Hall – being the bad one. They also lost to Villanova, but that’s now twice they’ve been beaten by the RPI #147 Pirates, and now Xavier’s RPI is in the danger zone and they still don’t have that psychologically important (sometimes) 20th win. Gotta beat Marquette in the Big East tourney opener, for sure. If so, Creighton is likely next.

I don’t know about Arkansas. They had a nice late six game win streak going, which included the victory over Kentucky, then in the regular season finale they lay an egg and get blown out by Alabama. Ugh. They only have four top-50 wins, and two those could both go away easily, as they are #47 (SMU) and #50 (Minnesota). And their overall schedule just hasn’t been very strong.

Same deal with Providence. They snuck one out last week over Marquette and then were beaten handily at Creighton. They do have a win over Creighton, but their only other top-50 win is over Xavier, and they’re at 49, so that could easily go away. Providence needs to make a big run in the BE Tournament, starting with a win on Thursday over St. John’s. That’s pretty much an elimination game for both teams.

Missouri hasn’t made much of a case for itself lately. They snuck out a one pointer over lousy Texas A&M before being blown out of the building at Tennessee. These guys were in trouble to begin with, and they’re still in deep doo-doo. Gotta make a real run in the SEC Tournament to have a shot. Sure, they could and should beat A&M again, but then they’d face the Gators. Good luck right there.

Georgetown: They were in pretty bad shape entering the Big East tournament, and then laid a huevo grande by losing in the first round tonight to RPI #155 DePaul. No chance for the Hoyas.

St. John’s: They won a squeaker over the weekend over Marquette to get to 10-8 in the league, but theirs is not a tournament resume right now. They have to make it happen in the BE tournament, starting with the aforementioned elimination game against Providence.

Not sure why I’m even including Marquette anymore, as they’re 17-14 overall and only .500 in the Big East, and just for good measure closed the regular season by losing three straight, though two were one pointers. Still. Gotta win the games, and they’ve just lost too many this season.

Same goes for Richmond. Their overall record (as well as other numbers) just isn’t good enough given their schedule, and they gagged down the stretch, losing their last four, and five of their last six. Perfect NIT team.

Green Bay: This team had an excellent season, which included a win over ACC regular season champ Virginia and a three point loss to Wisconsin. But they blew it in their conference tournament – a conference they dominated all year, losing to Milwaukee – RPI 125 Milwaukee – a team they actually had lost to earlier in the year as well. Would’ve been great to have them in the tournament, so I’m actually a little cheesed about their loss, but I don’t see the committee looking past their RPI and SOS and giving another bid to the Horizon League.

Utah: They beat Washington in the first round of the Pac-12 tonight, but I still don’t see it, despite the #32 rating by KenPom. Not with that RPI and SOS. The loss at Stanford over the weekend was a killer. If they really want to make the committee take another look at them, how bout beating Arizona on Thursday afternoon?

Southern Miss: not much has changed since last week. They’ve continued to roll in C-USA, but I still think they better win that conference tournament if they want to get in. Despite the good RPI, they just haven’t beaten anybody who the committee will care about. The only “name” opponent they had all year was Louisville, and they lost. And the score was 69-38. It doesn’t exactly scream “they can play with the big boys!”

NC State: I decided to throw them in there just because they’re an ACC team, to see how they stack up. No reason to track Clemson anymore. State has played an OK schedule, but that RPI is just too low, and they played below the expectations of many, failing to record a win over anyone better than bubble teams Pitt and Tennessee. If they get to the ACC Finals, they’ll try to make a case, but it’ll still be weak.

Anybody have any comments, disagreements, anything?

[ice-9]

Awesome work as always! Tried to spork you but couldn't.

[ChillinDuke]

Just terrific stuff. Major kudos.

Looking at your table, I'm really struggling on Stanford. One glance and I think they're in. The next and I think they're out. The win last night maybe edged them to the "in"-side (see that?) of the bubble. But a loss to ASU may push them back to square one, meaning the Va Tech seat of the Selection Show Special.

If they beat ASU, I think they are safely in.

- Chillin

ETA - Glanced again. And now I think I more or less agree with your (perhaps implicit) logic: the Stanford-ASU game is probably for a clear tourney slot. The loser is going to need to buy some Old Spice.

[Reilly]

The chart has three Kenpom top-30 teams:

Oregon - KP 24
Tenn - KP 13
Pitt - KP 21

I checked those three on the sports-reference.com ranking (http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/seasons/2014-ratings.html) and they stack up equally well:

Oregon - S-R 21
Tenn - S-R 22
Pitt - S-R 18

In the comments, you note that there's nothing to discuss about Oregon, and that Tenn is on fire. Seems unfathomable that Pitt, top 25 in both metrics, would be left out.

[-bdbd]

Thanks Tommy. Terrific summarization of the NCAAT bubble teams. I'm really watching Stanford and the Cardina.

Will certainly be very disappointed if the ACC only gets 5 in (big 4 plus Pitt), but agree that FSU and NCSU both have work yet to do. I think some at the top of your list are clearly already in, such as Oregon, but that's a very thorough summary.

[CDu]

The chart has three Kenpom top-30 teams:

Oregon - KP 24
Tenn - KP 13
Pitt - KP 21

I checked those three on the sports-reference.com ranking (http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/seasons/2014-ratings.html) and they stack up equally well:

Oregon - S-R 21
Tenn - S-R 22
Pitt - S-R 18

In the comments, you note that there's nothing to discuss about Oregon, and that Tenn is on fire. Seems unfathomable that Pitt, top 25 in both metrics, would be left out.

I agree about Pitt re: Tennessee. Not Oregon, though. Oregon has a 4-5 record against the RPI top-50. I think they're pretty safe.

But I will agree that Pitt has as good a resume as Tennessee. Pitt is 1-6 versus the top-50 but with no bad losses. Tennessee is 2-5 against the top-50 but with 3 bad losses (one of which came at home). I don't see how Tennessee is looking good but Pitt is not.

Basically, I'd say that Oregon is safely in, while both Pitt and Tennessee are sweating a little bit (but will probably get in).

[tommy]

Yeah, Tennessee's 3 100+ losses are the weak point of their resume, but I still think overall they look better than Pitt. Not that Pitt still doesn't have a good chance to get in -- I think they will -- but Tennessee's SOS is 14; Pitt's has now been adjusted to 79. Tennessee's nonconference SOS -- which I should've included in my table as that shows who you tried to play when you had the chance -- is 40; Pitt's is 232. Pitt's only top 50 win was back in November, against bubble team Stanford. Tennessee does have the one more top 50 win (not that big a deal) and of their 5 top-50 losses (vs. Pitt's six), three of the five were to Florida and Wichita State, obvious #1 seeds in the tournament. When you also add in the 35 point blowout win over Virginia, which everyone now remembers, plus how well the Vols have played lately in just destroying their last three opponents, I can see reasons for Tennessee to be ahead of Pitt.

[CDu]

Yeah, Tennessee's 3 100+ losses are the weak point of their resume, but I still think overall they look better than Pitt. Not that Pitt still doesn't have a good chance to get in -- I think they will -- but Tennessee's SOS is 14; Pitt's has now been adjusted to 79. Tennessee's nonconference SOS -- which I should've included in my table as that shows who you tried to play when you had the chance -- is 40; Pitt's is 232. Pitt's only top 50 win was back in November, against bubble team Stanford. Tennessee does have the one more top 50 win (not that big a deal) and of their 5 top-50 losses (vs. Pitt's six), three of the five were to Florida and Wichita State, obvious #1 seeds in the tournament. When you also add in the 35 point blowout win over Virginia, which everyone now remembers, plus how well the Vols have played lately in just destroying their last three opponents, I can see reasons for Tennessee to be ahead of Pitt.

It all depends on what you value more in the resume. If you want to penalize Pitt for a weak non-con schedule, then I agree that Tennessee should get more credit. If you want to penalize Tennessee for losing to bad teams, then Pitt should get more credit. In aggregate, I think they're neck and neck.

For reference, Lunardi has Pitt as a 10 and Tennessee as an 11. I'm sure if I checked 2 or 3 other "guru" sites, I'd get 2 or 3 different answers with these teams flip-flopped.

In all, I'd say that Pitt and Tennessee are VERY close to each other, whereas Oregon is comfortably in.

[tommy]

It all depends on what you value more in the resume. If you want to penalize Pitt for a weak non-con schedule, then I agree that Tennessee should get more credit. If you want to penalize Tennessee for losing to bad teams, then Pitt should get more credit. In aggregate, I think they're neck and neck.

For reference, Lunardi has Pitt as a 10 and Tennessee as an 11. I'm sure if I checked 2 or 3 other "guru" sites, I'd get 2 or 3 different answers with these teams flip-flopped.

In all, I'd say that Pitt and Tennessee are VERY close to each other, whereas Oregon is comfortably in.

I agree with you, in both your first and third paragraphs.

[tommy]

OK so here’s how I see it. 32 automatic qualifiers, 36 at-large bids to go out. The issue, as it always is, is how many “bid stealers” there will be, meaning teams that would not have received at-large bids, but somehow win their conference tournaments and take a bid from a team that would have been considered to get in off the bubble. The only way to determine where to draw the line between ins and outs with respect to the bubble teams is to know (or think you know) how many bids are going to be available. If Seton Hall wins the Big East, for example, the line moves up, meaning one less spot is available.

These are the teams that I see as in, either as conference champions (some of the small conferences are obviously already decided) or as getting an at-large bid no matter what they do in their conference tournaments going forward:

ACC: Duke, Syracuse, Virginia, UNC, Pitt
America East: tournament winner only
American: Cincinnati, Louisville, UConn, Memphis, SMU
Atlantic 10: St. Louis, VCU, GW, UMass
Atlantic Sun: Mercer
Big 12: Kansas, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Texas, K-State, Baylor, Oklahoma St.
Big East: Villanova, Creighton
Big South: Coastal Carolina
Big Sky: champion only
Big Ten: Michigan, Wisconsin, Michigan St., Ohio State
Big West: champion only
Colonial: Delaware
Conference USA: champion only
Horizon: Milwaukee
Ivy: Harvard
MAAC: Manhattan
MAC: champion only
MEAC: champion only
Missouri Valley: Wichita State
Mountain West: San Diego State, New Mexico
Northeast: Mt. St. Mary’s
Ohio Valley: Eastern Kentucky
Pac-12: Arizona, UCLA, Oregon, Colorado, Stanford
Patriot: American
SEC: Florida, Kentucky
Southern: Wofford
Southland: champion only
SWAC: champion only
Summit: North Dakota St.
Sun Belt: champion only
West Coast: Gonzaga
WAC: champion only

That’s 59 teams. Meaning only nine spots for folks I consider to be something short of a “lock.” And that's assuming no bid-stealing. If there is one stolen bid, the number of open spots is reduced to eight, two stolen bids, only seven spots remain, etc.

Looking at the chart I did the other day and posted a bit upthread now, if I was to re-do the chart, I would take six of those teams and put them in the “in” category – no longer on the bubble. Those are Oregon, Baylor, Colorado, Stanford, Pitt, and GW. They’re already included in my 59 who are in. Teams like Arkansas, St. John’s, and Utah, first round losers all, are out, in my mind.

But still there are nine spots remaining.

Actually, now that St. Joe’s recorded their crucial win over Dayton today, I’m close to putting them in, but not quite. Tennessee, winning as we speak, is very close to that category as well. Nebraska had a great chance to get in for sure, but blew it against Ohio State today. Forget about Missouri after their blowout loss to the Gators, though they did play them tough for a half.

So that leaves the remaining teams vying for the nine spots as follows:

Arizona State
Tennessee
BYU
Minnesota
Nebraska
St. Joe’s
Cal
Dayton
FSU
Xavier
Providence

That’s eleven teams for the nine spots. Oh, I forgot Iowa. They’re kind of on the bubble now too. So say 12 teams for the nine spots, meaning almost all of em are getting in. As we speak, I’m gonna say Florida State, Cal, and Providence are out, and the rest are in. If Providence wins today over Seton Hall, that changes.
I’m sure I’m missing something or made some major miscalculation, so correct me where I have erred.

[tommy]

I usually don't think much of Lunardi, but I do agree that by getting a 22nd win and reaching the Big East finals, Providence is now barely in, and Minnesota, off their embarrassing loss today, is out. Otherwise we agreed on everything else before the day started.

This is all subject to change, though, for instance if NC State keeps winning (biting my tongue), if St. Bonaventure somehow wins the A-10, if Boise wins the Mountain West, or if Georgia wins the SEC. If I'm not mistaken, those are the only four potential bid stealers still out there