PDA

View Full Version : This Week in the ACC - 2/24-3/2



pfrduke
02-24-2014, 05:10 PM
Once again, no time for analysis this week - just a quick rundown of the schedule.

Monday

[48]Maryland hosts [11]Syracuse (7, ESPN)

Tuesday

[3]Duke hosts [185]Virginia Tech (7, ESPNU)
[122]Wake Forest hosts [45]Clemson (7, ESPN3)

Wednesday

[6]Virginia hosts [71]Miami (7, ESPN3)
[94]Notre Dame hosts [146]Georgia Tech (7, ESPN2)
[81]NC State hosts [20]North Carolina (8, ESPN3)
[150]Boston College hosts [18]Pittsburgh (8, ESPN3)

Thursday and Friday are dark.
Saturday

[71]NC State hosts [81]Miami (12, ESPN3)
[94]Notre Dame hosts [18]Pittsburgh (2, ESPN2)
[185]Virginia Tech hosts [20]North Carolina (2:30, ESPN3)
[6]Virginia hosts [11]Syracuse (4, ESPN)
[122]Wake Forest hosts [150]Boston College (4, ESPN3)

Sunday

[45]Clemson hosts [48]Maryland (1, ESPN3)
[33]Florida State hosts [146]Georgia Tech (6, ESPNU)

ACC Non-Conference Record: 139-53
ACC Record vs. BCS: 29-33

CDu
02-24-2014, 05:17 PM
Bigtime tourney implications tonight (Cuse @ UMd), Wednesday (UNC @ State), and Sunday (Clemson @FSU). The top seed in the ACC tourney will be decided on Saturday (Cuse @ UVa).

Tough stretch of games for the Cuse. Could they wind up in a 3-way tie for 2nd by week's end?

Duvall
02-25-2014, 09:07 PM
Clemson loses at not-quite-dead-yet Wake, and Duke clinches a double bye in the ACC Tournament.

DukeWarhead
02-25-2014, 10:33 PM
Clemson loses at not-quite-dead-yet Wake, and Duke clinches a double bye in the ACC Tournament.

How did we ever lose to Clemson? Looking back now, its clearly the worst loss of the season.

-jk
02-25-2014, 11:55 PM
I thought Vermont was the worst loss.

-jk

Olympic Fan
02-26-2014, 01:57 AM
How did we ever lose to Clemson? Looking back now, its clearly the worst loss of the season.

Actually, I think the loss to Notre Dame was worse -- by a wide margin.

Not only does Clemson have a significantly better record than Notre Dame (17-10/8-7 vs. 14-14/5-10), but the Tigers have a much better RPI (67 vs. 111 -- before Tuesday night) and a much better Pomeroy (47 vs. 94 -- after Tuesday night). The loss to the Irish was our worst loss.

BTW: I agree that Clemson's loss to the Deacs was a devastating blow to their NCAA chances. They didn't have much margin for error with their low non-conference SOS and just one top 50 win (Duke!). Now, I don't see how they make it, even if they win their last three games ... their resume at that point (20-10/11-7 ACC with a terrible NSOS and one significant win vs. Duke) would be almost exactly the same as Virginia last year -- and they didn't come close to making it.

Here is a Turtle
02-26-2014, 03:38 AM
Maryland (22-12) beat three ranked teams last year (NC State, Duke 2x) and still didn't make it and were barely considered because their out of conference SOS was in the 300s. Virginia (21-11) was close to a bid if I recall correctly. They were among the first four out and got a one seed in the NIT. With that loss, Clemson will probably share the same fate. Worse if they can't take care of business at home when Maryland rolls in there this Sunday.

OldPhiKap
02-26-2014, 07:28 AM
How did we ever lose to Clemson? Looking back now, its clearly the worst loss of the season.


Actually, I think the loss to Notre Dame was worse -- by a wide margin.



Young team, playing true away games early in the season. And we are the biggest games in South Bend and Clemson this year. Chalk it up as part of the growth curve.



I thought Vermont was the worst loss.

-jk

Inexplicable, for sure. Really really really hard to believe that happened.

Really.

Troublemaker
02-26-2014, 02:03 PM
I may be nuts, but I think Miami has a great chance to upset the Cavs at UVA tonight.

The Canes have been playing better lately with the insertion of Swoope into the starting lineup. They are more physical now and rebound much better than they did previously, and they have even been scoring better.

But mainly, there's a look-ahead factor for UVA, which will play Syracuse on Saturday. Tony Bennett's a very good coach but he doesn't have much experience with keeping a 1st place team focused when a battle for first-place is just a couple days away. In general, there's a lot of newness to everything UVA is doing and experiencing right now (because, to their credit, they've played so well to put themselves into these new situations). They've handled things well so far, and props to them if they come ready to play tonight, but I don't expect it.

I think it's a pair of good bets to take Miami on the moneyline to win and with the 10.5 spread.

Olympic Fan
02-26-2014, 02:17 PM
I may be nuts, but I think Miami has a great chance to upset the Cavs at UVA tonight.

The Canes have been playing better lately with the insertion of Swoope into the starting lineup. They are more physical now and rebound much better than they did previously, and they have even been scoring better.

But mainly, there's a look-ahead factor for UVA, which will play Syracuse on Saturday. Tony Bennett's a very good coach but he doesn't have much experience with keeping a 1st place team focused when a battle for first-place is just a couple days away. In general, there's a lot of newness to everything UVA is doing and experiencing right now (because, to their credit, they've played so well to put themselves into these new situations). They've handled things well so far, and props to them if they come ready to play tonight, but I don't expect it.

I think it's a pair of good bets to take Miami on the moneyline to win and with the 10.5 spread.

I don't know if I agree, but to bolster your argument, it should be noted that Miami has actually played better on the road in the ACC (3-3) than at home (2-6). Part of that is that Miami has one of the two worst homecourt environments in the ACC (along with BC).

I'm not brave enough to pick a Miami win, but I would like to guess that it's going to be one of the lowest scoring games of the year.

The two really important games tonight are UNC at NC State and Pitt at BC.

The Wolfpack is hanging on to its NCAA hopes by its claws, but a loss to UNC would end any dreams of a late season surge. It's not that State couldn't win some games to close out the season, but this is really their last chance to get a signature win (even Clemson has one of those ... and the Tigers dropped off the bubble last night). I'd like to see them win (for a variety of reasons), but I'm not very optimistic -- over the past few years, State has played meekly against the Heels (I know they did get a homecourt win over UNC last year, but that was the exception).

Pitt at BC does not shape up as an important game, but it's important -- Pitt has got to snap out of its downward spiral or the Panthers are going to find themselves on the bubble.

Georgia Tech at Notre Dame has no interest and no importance, except if you like Mike Brey (I do) and hope his Irish can finish strong.

Wander
02-26-2014, 02:24 PM
I thought Vermont was the worst loss.

-jk

It's definitely still the case that we played really poorly, but it turns out, Vermont probably isn't that bad! So not QUITE as embarrassing as it looked at the time.

Kedsy
02-26-2014, 02:49 PM
It's definitely still the case that we played really poorly, but it turns out, Vermont probably isn't that bad! So not QUITE as embarrassing as it looked at the time.

I agree. I know there are those around here who believe Vermont's high computer rank is due to a "Wisconsin Effect," but Pomeroy has Vermont ranked better than half the ACC (higher than Miami, NCSU, Notre Dame, Wake, Ga Tech, BC, and Va Tech).

Of course, having said that, if we gave up 90 points to any of those teams and won by just 1 point in Cameron, I bet a bunch of people on these boards would bemoan what a bad win it was. But probably not as dramatic a reaction as actually erupted after the Vermont game.

Wander
02-26-2014, 03:04 PM
I agree. I know there are those around here who believe Vermont's high computer rank is due to a "Wisconsin Effect," but Pomeroy has Vermont ranked better than half the ACC (higher than Miami, NCSU, Notre Dame, Wake, Ga Tech, BC, and Va Tech).

I was one of those people who doubted Vermont was really a top 100 team due to that effect - but that was a month ago, and since then, they've kept having the score margins you'd expect from a top 100 team, so sign me up on the Vermont train. Go Catamounts? Take out Syracuse or whoever in the first round.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
02-26-2014, 04:42 PM
I was one of those people who doubted Vermont was really a top 100 team due to that effect - but that was a month ago, and since then, they've kept having the score margins you'd expect from a top 100 team, so sign me up on the Vermont train. Go Catamounts? Take out Syracuse or whoever in the first round.

Ahem. I might be falling prey here, but I would argue that Notre Dame was a much worse loss than the Vermont game. I am happy to explain further if necessary, but I suspect the longer you look at those two results, you might agree.

Go Duke!

Wander
02-26-2014, 05:02 PM
Ahem. I might be falling prey here, but I would argue that Notre Dame was a much worse loss than the Vermont game. I am happy to explain further if necessary, but I suspect the longer you look at those two results, you might agree.

I'm definitely open to the idea that Vermont is better than Notre Dame, but I think when you take into account home vs away, it's fair to say the Vermont game was our worst performance this season. Just not as bad as it initially looked.

Kedsy
02-26-2014, 05:22 PM
I'm definitely open to the idea that Vermont is better than Notre Dame, but I think when you take into account home vs away, it's fair to say the Vermont game was our worst performance this season. Just not as bad as it initially looked.

It's possible that Notre Dame's computer numbers are artificially inflated by the 12 games in which Jerian Grant played, although it's also true Vermont was missing a key player when they played us as well. Considering home vs. away, as you say, I think you're probably right, but it's close.

Wander
02-26-2014, 05:39 PM
It's possible that Notre Dame's computer numbers are artificially inflated by the 12 games in which Jerian Grant played, although it's also true Vermont was missing a key player when they played us as well. Considering home vs. away, as you say, I think you're probably right, but it's close.

That's an interesting point, but I just looked at ESPN's BPI, which supposedly takes into account injuries and diminishing returns for blowouts, and it actually has Notre Dame a little bit higher than Vermont (80 to 97). I don't know enough about the BPI to know whether I trust it over kenpom, though. At any rate, it's a little nitpicky anyway, as I agree with the general idea that the loss to ND and win over Vermont were probably not that far apart - bad games, but nothing historically awful that dooms our NCAA chances or anything like the Vermont game was originally interpreted as by some.

El_Diablo
02-26-2014, 07:33 PM
With 28 minutes left in the game, UVA has built a nearly insurmountable 6-point lead over Miami.

NSDukeFan
02-26-2014, 07:46 PM
That's an interesting point, but I just looked at ESPN's BPI, which supposedly takes into account injuries and diminishing returns for blowouts, and it actually has Notre Dame a little bit higher than Vermont (80 to 97). I don't know enough about the BPI to know whether I trust it over kenpom, though. At any rate, it's a little nitpicky anyway, as I agree with the general idea that the loss to ND and win over Vermont were probably not that far apart - bad games, but nothing historically awful that dooms our NCAA chances or anything like the Vermont game was originally interpreted as by some.

I am pretty sure that every loss, and a few of the wins, has exposed a fatal flaw that has doomed the team to a sweet sixteen or worse ceiling. At least, I am pretty sure I read that on the post game threads.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
02-26-2014, 08:33 PM
I'm definitely open to the idea that Vermont is better than Notre Dame, but I think when you take into account home vs away, it's fair to say the Vermont game was our worst performance this season. Just not as bad as it initially looked.

It may have been our worst performance, but my point was that we did not actually lose the game, so it cannot be our worst loss.

Disappointing? Sure. Poor? You bet. But it factually cannot be our worst loss by virtue of outscoring them.

Contrary to popular belief, that game is not an "L" on the official ledger.

Or, I took the bait up-thread and you can disregard me please.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
02-26-2014, 08:35 PM
Inexplicable, for sure. Really really really hard to believe that happened.

Really.

As they say, the devil is in the details.

BlueDevilBrowns
02-26-2014, 09:41 PM
Beejay Anya's superpower:

The ability to make even Kennedy Meeks look small.

BlueDevilBrowns
02-26-2014, 09:48 PM
And the inevitable NCSU implosion has started... sigh.

Gthoma2a
02-26-2014, 09:56 PM
http://youtu.be/y-bMY90yqWQ

-jk
02-26-2014, 09:57 PM
<sigh>

-jk

-jk
02-26-2014, 10:00 PM
C'mon, State. You can do this. (Even if you don't believe it!)

-jk

Gthoma2a
02-26-2014, 10:02 PM
C'mon, State. You can do this. (Even if you don't believe it!)

-jk

Someone should hide the clock from them. They play well until it is getting close to actually happening. Still, the mention of the upset could jinx them.

-jk
02-26-2014, 10:05 PM
Get a frickin' stop!

-jk
02-26-2014, 10:07 PM
Frick

Troublemaker
02-26-2014, 10:10 PM
Wow, TJ Warren is only a 69% FT shooter, too. That was pretty darn clutch by him.

Wahoo2000
02-26-2014, 10:10 PM
I may be nuts, but I think Miami has a great chance to upset the Cavs at UVA tonight.

The Canes have been playing better lately with the insertion of Swoope into the starting lineup. They are more physical now and rebound much better than they did previously, and they have even been scoring better.

But mainly, there's a look-ahead factor for UVA, which will play Syracuse on Saturday. Tony Bennett's a very good coach but he doesn't have much experience with keeping a 1st place team focused when a battle for first-place is just a couple days away. In general, there's a lot of newness to everything UVA is doing and experiencing right now (because, to their credit, they've played so well to put themselves into these new situations). They've handled things well so far, and props to them if they come ready to play tonight, but I don't expect it.

I think it's a pair of good bets to take Miami on the moneyline to win and with the 10.5 spread.

We may VERY well be the 3rd (or even 4th) best team in this conference, but one thing I love about Tony Bennett is his consistent demand from his staff and team leaders to keep the guys focused on the "one game/step at a time" approach. We may lose a game, we may play poorly, but not because we're not 100% focused and mentally prepared. This has been consistent from 7-9 ACC squads to this season's edition (currently 15-1)

Gthoma2a
02-26-2014, 10:11 PM
I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue.

DukeDiva
02-26-2014, 10:12 PM
Overtime

Troublemaker
02-26-2014, 10:15 PM
We may VERY well be the 3rd (or even 4th) best team in this conference, but one thing I love about Tony Bennett is his consistent demand from his staff and team leaders to keep the guys focused on the "one game/step at a time" approach. We may lose a game, we may play poorly, but not because we're not 100% focused and mentally prepared. This has been consistent from 7-9 ACC squads to this season's edition (currently 15-1)

Wahoo, I was indeed NUTS to think Miami could win. Sometimes I like to go out on limbs and they snap and it's painful. You guys were definitely not looking ahead to Saturday and made Miami (and me) look silly, holding them to 26% shooting while scorching the nets yourselves.

UVA has the 2nd-best team in the ACC, imo. 2nd to Duke! :-)

Gthoma2a
02-26-2014, 10:18 PM
This is nuts!

BlueDevilBrowns
02-26-2014, 10:23 PM
I think Warren and Paige may have clinched 1st team All ACC with their performances tonight.

-jk
02-26-2014, 10:27 PM
<sigh>

bedeviled
02-26-2014, 10:32 PM
Well, it's a good decade not to be a state fan

Duvall
03-01-2014, 02:12 PM
If State's bubble hadn't burst before, it's now like...super-burst after losing to Miami 70-85.

Tripping William
03-01-2014, 02:39 PM
Question: What outcome to Hoos & Cuse this afternoon most benefits Duke?

Karl Beem
03-01-2014, 02:48 PM
There are Hispanics at the VT game chanting Jokies! Jokies! Jokies!

nocilla
03-01-2014, 02:49 PM
Question: What outcome to Hoos & Cuse this afternoon most benefits Duke?

Depends on whether you want to be on the UVA side of the ACC tournament bracket or the Syracuse side. And that depends on Duke beating UNC next Saturday. I don't think either outcome will effect Duke in the standings.

brevity
03-01-2014, 03:09 PM
Question: What outcome to Hoos & Cuse this afternoon most benefits Duke?


Depends on whether you want to be on the UVA side of the ACC tournament bracket or the Syracuse side. And that depends on Duke beating UNC next Saturday. I don't think either outcome will effect Duke in the standings.

A Syracuse loss would move them to 13-3 in the ACC (Duke is 12-4) with two games left. If both teams end up 14-4, Duke would get the 2 seed because they beat UVA and Syracuse lost to UVA.

Also, a Syracuse loss would better Duke's position for a 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Barring an epic collapse of Florida, Arizona, Wichita State, and Kansas, two ACC teams will not get a 1 seed.

UVA is 15-1 and will finish above Duke in the ACC standings. The only possible advantage to a UVA loss is that it slightly improves Duke's chances for playing in Raleigh for the first weekend in the NCAA Tournament. But there's room for both Duke and UVA there, so it's not a very strong motivation.

OldPhiKap
03-01-2014, 03:28 PM
Go Hoos!

nocilla
03-01-2014, 03:53 PM
A Syracuse loss would move them to 13-3 in the ACC (Duke is 12-4) with two games left. If both teams end up 14-4, Duke would get the 2 seed because they beat UVA and Syracuse lost to UVA.



I hadn't thought of getting the 2 seed. We would need GT or FSU to upset them for that to happen but it is certainly possible.

Troublemaker
03-01-2014, 04:22 PM
Go Wahoos!

At the first TV timeout, they are really struggling with the zone so far. Don't seem to have someone who can operate from the FT line area. Joe Harris hasn't been tried yet, though.

Troublemaker
03-01-2014, 04:32 PM
2nd TV timeout. UVA made a run. They subbed in Anthony Gill and he seems to be the guy for that spot.

Troublemaker
03-01-2014, 05:11 PM
Halftime. Cuse made a run to take the lead. Zone has made the UVA offense look bad but at least Hoos are pounding the offensive boards. That probably will have to continue (along with their typical great D) for them to win. They just don't have a high post guy like Hood, Amile, or Jabari.

Tripping William
03-01-2014, 05:13 PM
And Ennis now has 3 fouls.

CDu
03-01-2014, 05:21 PM
UNC's win over VT makes it official: to get the #3 (or even have a shot at the #2) seed, we have to beat UNC next weekend. Even if UNC loses against Notre Dame, if they beat us, they take the tiebreaker over us.

Time to win out.

dukelifer
03-01-2014, 05:45 PM
And Ennis now has 3 fouls.

UVa up by 11 with 5 to go. Cuse has not hit a shot.

Troublemaker
03-01-2014, 05:54 PM
Great half for UVA. They're probably going to pass Duke in Kenpom with this performance and become the #2 kenpom team.

Syracuse's loss probably allows Duke to control our own destiny as far as being the highest seeded ACC team in the NCAA tournament. Now all we have to do is win out (which was always the hard part anyway).

Tripping William
03-01-2014, 05:59 PM
UNC's win over VT makes it official: to get the #3 (or even have a shot at the #2) seed, we have to beat UNC next weekend. Even if UNC loses against Notre Dame, if they beat us, they take the tiebreaker over us.

Time to win out.

Not to mention getting to Raleigh. Agree completely with that last sentence.

devildeac
03-02-2014, 08:39 AM
Despite the win yesterday, ol roy does not appear to be in the dadgum Shamrock spirit:

"I told them in that locker room at halftime – we’ve had 85 practices,” Williams said. “And what is this – 29 games. My God. If you can’t get fired up 29 times, that’s something wrong with you. Cause I don’t buy all that junk.

“And yet everybody says it and I think it’s a bunch of junk. If I get to play 29 games, I’m going to play my blankety-blank off 29 times.”

OldPhiKap
03-02-2014, 09:26 AM
^^^ Roy has more passion for Carolina in his little blankety-blank than most people have in their whole whatchamacallits.

Duvall
03-02-2014, 03:18 PM
Jamie Luckie likes to play at being a big man - why won't he tell Mark Turgeon to stay off the court?