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View Full Version : Bubble talk: Can the ACC get 6 teams into the NCAA Tourney?



CDu
02-22-2014, 10:26 PM
Okay, so we're closing in on March, and that means bubble talk. I think it is fairly certain that at least 5 ACC teams will make the tournament: UVa, Syracuse, Duke, UNC, and Pitt. Those 5 are locks.

The real question is, can we get any other teams in? Four teams have an RPI between 60 and 74. Three of those same four teams are top-50 in Pomeroy's standings and top-60 in the BPI. Let's take a look at who has a chance:

Maryland (15-12, 7-7 in ACC, #48 Pomeroy, #74 RPI, #49 BPI): Maryland has had a very mediocre season in pretty much every regard. But they have a chance to make a bunch of late-season statements. They nearly beat us and they nearly beat Syracuse. Either of those wins would have been huge. But they will get at least 2 more chances against top-25 competition, as they host both Syracuse and UVa. If they can win both of those and also beat Clemson and VT, suddenly they're sitting at 19-12, 11-7 in conference, probably top-50 in RPI and certainly top-40 in BPI and Pomeroy, and they'd have two signature wins heading into the ACC tournament. It isn't going to be easy, but if they can win out their regular season and win a game or two in the ACC tournament (they'll certainly get a bye with an 11-7 conference record), I think they'll be in the tourney. But I think they may need to do that to get in.

Clemson (17-9, 8-6, #45, #67, #55): Clemson has one signature win and has generally done well against the other bubble teams. But their resume is really light right now. They get one more chance against a bubble team (Maryland) and one more chance against a sure-fire tourney team (Pitt). Both are at home. If they win those two games and don't falter against the bottom feeders, they'll be 21-9, 12-6 in conference, and their ratings will likely all be in the 40s (better in Pomeroy). I think that, along with a win or two in the ACC tourney, would get them in.

So basically I suspect that only one of Clemson and Maryland can get in, since they play each other.

FSU (15-11, 6-8, #40, #60, #51): Frankly, I think FSU is a bit of a paper tiger here. They look much better in their ratings than their results really suggest. Their best two wins are against VCU and UMass (both last calendar year). They're under .500 in conference and have no signature wins. They have no chance of reaching 20 wins in the regular season. Despite all that, FSU also has a chance to sneak in. They have a road game against Pitt tomorrow and a home game versus Syracuse. If they can somehow win both of those and then avoid stumbling against BC and GT, they'll be 19-11, 10-8, with ratings in the 40s or better and two signature wins to go along with the wins over VCU and UMass. Combine that with a win or two in the ACC tourney, and I think they're in.

NC State (17-10, 7-7, #78, #61, #73): The Pack have the weakest resume of these four teams. And they unfortunately have the least opportunity to improve upon that resume down the stretch. They have just one opportunity to get that signature win (at Pitt). I think they have to win out and get a win over a top-4 ACC team in the tourney (which means at least 2 tourney wins) to get into the field. That would put them at 23-11 (or better), 11-7 in conference, and with at least two signature wins. I think that would be enough.

Now, the question is, how likely are ANY of these scenarios? Honestly, I don't think any of these teams are likely to make it. If I had to guess, I'd say Clemson has the best chance, just because they're likely going to win enough games overall and in conference to put some pressure on the committee. I think it's asking too much of Maryland, FSU, or NC State to win out.

If I had to guess, we'll get five. Maybe Clemson sneaks in to get a sixth. Your thoughts?

OldPhiKap
02-22-2014, 10:57 PM
Okay, so we're closing in on March, and that means bubble talk. I think it is fairly certain that at least 5 ACC teams will make the tournament: UVa, Syracuse, Duke, UNC, and Pitt. Those 5 are locks.

The real question is, can we get any other teams in? Four teams have an RPI between 60 and 74. Three of those same four teams are top-50 in Pomeroy's standings and top-60 in the BPI. Let's take a look at who has a chance:

Maryland (15-12, 7-7 in ACC, #48 Pomeroy, #74 RPI, #49 BPI): Maryland has had a very mediocre season in pretty much every regard. But they have a chance to make a bunch of late-season statements. They nearly beat us and they nearly beat Syracuse. Either of those wins would have been huge. But they will get at least 2 more chances against top-25 competition, as they host both Syracuse and UVa. If they can win both of those and also beat Clemson and VT, suddenly they're sitting at 19-12, 11-7 in conference, probably top-50 in RPI and certainly top-40 in BPI and Pomeroy, and they'd have two signature wins heading into the ACC tournament. It isn't going to be easy, but if they can win out their regular season and win a game or two in the ACC tournament (they'll certainly get a bye with an 11-7 conference record), I think they'll be in the tourney. But I think they may need to do that to get in.

Clemson (17-9, 8-6, #45, #67, #55): Clemson has one signature win and has generally done well against the other bubble teams. But their resume is really light right now. They get one more chance against a bubble team (Maryland) and one more chance against a sure-fire tourney team (Pitt). Both are at home. If they win those two games and don't falter against the bottom feeders, they'll be 21-9, 12-6 in conference, and their ratings will likely all be in the 40s (better in Pomeroy). I think that, along with a win or two in the ACC tourney, would get them in.

So basically I suspect that only one of Clemson and Maryland can get in, since they play each other.

FSU (15-11, 6-8, #40, #60, #51): Frankly, I think FSU is a bit of a paper tiger here. They look much better in their ratings than their results really suggest. Their best two wins are against VCU and UMass (both last calendar year). They're under .500 in conference and have no signature wins. They have no chance of reaching 20 wins in the regular season. Despite all that, FSU also has a chance to sneak in. They have a road game against Pitt tomorrow and a home game versus Syracuse. If they can somehow win both of those and then avoid stumbling against BC and GT, they'll be 19-11, 10-8, with ratings in the 40s or better and two signature wins to go along with the wins over VCU and UMass. Combine that with a win or two in the ACC tourney, and I think they're in.

NC State (17-10, 7-7, #78, #61, #73): The Pack have the weakest resume of these four teams. And they unfortunately have the least opportunity to improve upon that resume down the stretch. They have just one opportunity to get that signature win (at Pitt). I think they have to win out and get a win over a top-4 ACC team in the tourney (which means at least 2 tourney wins) to get into the field. That would put them at 23-11 (or better), 11-7 in conference, and with at least two signature wins. I think that would be enough.

Now, the question is, how likely are ANY of these scenarios? Honestly, I don't think any of these teams are likely to make it. If I had to guess, I'd say Clemson has the best chance, just because they're likely going to win enough games overall and in conference to put some pressure on the committee. I think it's asking too much of Maryland, FSU, or NC State to win out.

If I had to guess, we'll get five. Maybe Clemson sneaks in to get a sixth. Your thoughts?

Putting aside an ACC tourney sin by one of these, I think that Maryland and Clemson both have the opportunity to earn their way in. One has to beat the other, and then take care of business. First round conference upset would help. Clemson at 21-9 is probably in.

Wander
02-22-2014, 11:13 PM
We had to expand the tournament for crappy teams like these? Geez. I'd agree that Clemson has the best chance in that it's not much of a stretch to see them winning out and finishing 12-6, but even that wouldn't be a lock because the only thing of note they did in the non-conference was lose to Auburn. I might actually put FSU second in that they have those two decent wins in the non-con without any embarrassing losses, but they've got to beat Pitt tomorrow.

Speaking of which, Pitt isn't a COMPLETE lock just yet. It'd be a pretty spectacular fall for them to slip into bubble territory, but it's not impossible.

-bdbd
02-23-2014, 01:41 AM
I agree that all four of those teams are "in play" for the NCAAT, to differing degrees. Looking at the remainder of their schedule, I actually EXPECT Clemson to get in. Mostly at home, and probably favored in at least three of them. The faltering Pitt squad visiting Littlejohn might be a toss-up.

Focusing on the remaining schedules, I think MD is less of a sure thing. They will be clear underdogs vs 'cuse and the Wahoos, even with both at home. If they split their remaining four, then they look good, but might still need to win one in the ACCT. Playing AT Clemson will be difficult at best, and one might argue that that game could be for an NCAA bid.

If NCSU had not crumbled vs. Syracuse late, I'd say they are looking good. But right now, they and FSU are in need of a signature win to make it in. That chance might come for State as they host UNC this week... If not versus the heels, State - and probably FSU - will need to make some noise in Greensboro if they want to dance...

Overall a disappointing year, I think, for the ACC. Of course, if they wind up with one or even two teams in the Final Four, then everyone will forget!! ;)

arnie
02-23-2014, 06:55 AM
We had to expand the tournament for crappy teams like these? Geez. I'd agree that Clemson has the best chance in that it's not much of a stretch to see them winning out and finishing 12-6, but even that wouldn't be a lock because the only thing of note they did in the non-conference was lose to Auburn. I might actually put FSU second in that they have those two decent wins in the non-con without any embarrassing losses, but they've got to beat Pitt tomorrow.

Speaking of which, Pitt isn't a COMPLETE lock just yet. It'd be a pretty spectacular fall for them to slip into bubble territory, but it's not impossible.

I looked at Pitt's entire schedule earlier and saw 1 good win at Stanford. I'm also not sure they're a lock yet. They lose 3 more games and no show in ACC we could only get 4 in.

Matches
02-23-2014, 07:00 AM
Agreed that:

1. Of those four teams, Clemson is the only one that still has a realistic shot. I could see them being a "First Four" team that everyone complains about because of the light resume. "But they beat Duke!" "But Duke wasn't Duke then." "Still." Repeat ad nauseum.

2. Pitt hasn't sewn up anything yet. They've been very mediocre since their game against us. Lay a few eggs down the stretch, lose on Thursday in the ACCT, and they could be NIT-bound.

mcdukie
02-23-2014, 07:43 AM
Okay, so we're closing in on March, and that means bubble talk. I think it is fairly certain that at least 5 ACC teams will make the tournament: UVa, Syracuse, Duke, UNC, and Pitt. Those 5 are locks.

The real question is, can we get any other teams in? Four teams have an RPI between 60 and 74. Three of those same four teams are top-50 in Pomeroy's standings and top-60 in the BPI. Let's take a look at who has a chance:

Maryland (15-12, 7-7 in ACC, #48 Pomeroy, #74 RPI, #49 BPI): Maryland has had a very mediocre season in pretty much every regard. But they have a chance to make a bunch of late-season statements. They nearly beat us and they nearly beat Syracuse. Either of those wins would have been huge. But they will get at least 2 more chances against top-25 competition, as they host both Syracuse and UVa. If they can win both of those and also beat Clemson and VT, suddenly they're sitting at 19-12, 11-7 in conference, probably top-50 in RPI and certainly top-40 in BPI and Pomeroy, and they'd have two signature wins heading into the ACC tournament. It isn't going to be easy, but if they can win out their regular season and win a game or two in the ACC tournament (they'll certainly get a bye with an 11-7 conference record), I think they'll be in the tourney. But I think they may need to do that to get in.

Clemson (17-9, 8-6, #45, #67, #55): Clemson has one signature win and has generally done well against the other bubble teams. But their resume is really light right now. They get one more chance against a bubble team (Maryland) and one more chance against a sure-fire tourney team (Pitt). Both are at home. If they win those two games and don't falter against the bottom feeders, they'll be 21-9, 12-6 in conference, and their ratings will likely all be in the 40s (better in Pomeroy). I think that, along with a win or two in the ACC tourney, would get them in.

So basically I suspect that only one of Clemson and Maryland can get in, since they play each other.

FSU (15-11, 6-8, #40, #60, #51): Frankly, I think FSU is a bit of a paper tiger here. They look much better in their ratings than their results really suggest. Their best two wins are against VCU and UMass (both last calendar year). They're under .500 in conference and have no signature wins. They have no chance of reaching 20 wins in the regular season. Despite all that, FSU also has a chance to sneak in. They have a road game against Pitt tomorrow and a home game versus Syracuse. If they can somehow win both of those and then avoid stumbling against BC and GT, they'll be 19-11, 10-8, with ratings in the 40s or better and two signature wins to go along with the wins over VCU and UMass. Combine that with a win or two in the ACC tourney, and I think they're in.

NC State (17-10, 7-7, #78, #61, #73): The Pack have the weakest resume of these four teams. And they unfortunately have the least opportunity to improve upon that resume down the stretch. They have just one opportunity to get that signature win (at Pitt). I think they have to win out and get a win over a top-4 ACC team in the tourney (which means at least 2 tourney wins) to get into the field. That would put them at 23-11 (or better), 11-7 in conference, and with at least two signature wins. I think that would be enough.

Now, the question is, how likely are ANY of these scenarios? Honestly, I don't think any of these teams are likely to make it. If I had to guess, I'd say Clemson has the best chance, just because they're likely going to win enough games overall and in conference to put some pressure on the committee. I think it's asking too much of Maryland, FSU, or NC State to win out.

If I had to guess, we'll get five. Maybe Clemson sneaks in to get a sixth. Your thoughts?

Maryland has not played Syracuse yet. Monday is their only meeting this season.

OldPhiKap
02-23-2014, 07:58 AM
Maryland has not played Syracuse yet. Monday is their only meeting this season.

I would not want to be Maryland. Now, for yet another reason.

gurufrisbee
02-23-2014, 09:50 AM
I can't see Maryland getting through their end of the season schedule with much success.

Clemson definitely looks like our best shot, especially if they win at home vs. Maryland.

Pitt is in. They play in a major conference and have zero bad losses on the season. And several loses were close to being big upset wins.

I wouldn't rule out Florida State yet either. They will need to beat either Pitt or Cuse to finish 9-9 in conference to have a shot at it, but if they do they absolutely have a schedule the committee loves to reward bubble teams for playing. Super close loses to top teams like Michigan and Florida and wins over VCU and UMass.

The committee will look bad if they only take five ACC schools, because the top five all will be good threats to make it through the first weekend.

CDu
02-23-2014, 07:21 PM
FSU certainly helped their cause tonight with a win on the road at Pitt. They aren't out of the woods yet: they'll definitely need to win their next two and at least one ACC tourney game (maybe 2). Winning out the regular season (which would include a win over Syracuse) and picking up an ACC tourney win would probably do it. But they still need to end up at least .500 in conference (right now they sit at 7-8).

Kedsy
02-23-2014, 07:25 PM
FSU certainly helped their cause tonight with a win on the road at Pitt. They aren't out of the woods yet: they'll definitely need to win their next two and at least one ACC tourney game (maybe 2). Winning out the regular season (which would include a win over Syracuse) and picking up an ACC tourney win would probably do it. But they still need to end up at least .500 in conference (right now they sit at 7-8).

And Pittsburgh's back on the bubble.

Indoor66
02-23-2014, 07:26 PM
And Pittsburgh's back on the bubble.

Maybe if Dixon changes his hair style things will go better.

CDu
02-23-2014, 07:38 PM
And Pittsburgh's back on the bubble.

I still think Pitt is OK. They have 3 VERY winnable games coming (@BC, @ND, vs State). Win those 3 and I can't imagine a 23-8 (11-7) ACC team getting snubbed. Even given that they haven't really beaten anybody of note.

They certainly haven 't done themselves any favors though.

Kedsy
02-23-2014, 07:59 PM
I still think Pitt is OK. They have 3 VERY winnable games coming (@BC, @ND, vs State). Win those 3 and I can't imagine a 23-8 (11-7) ACC team getting snubbed. Even given that they haven't really beaten anybody of note.

They certainly haven 't done themselves any favors though.

You're probably right, but I also think all three of those games are losable for Pitt, too. If they lose one (or more) and then make a premature exit from the ACC tourney, they'll be holding their breath to the end of the selection special.

WakeDevil
02-23-2014, 08:03 PM
Have any of you touting Clemson looked at that team's OOC schedule?

http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Clemson

Wander
02-23-2014, 08:42 PM
You're probably right, but I also think all three of those games are losable for Pitt, too. If they lose one (or more) and then make a premature exit from the ACC tourney, they'll be holding their breath to the end of the selection special.

I agree. Pitt hasn't won a game in regulation in a month! And that includes a home game against the ACC's last place team. They can lose to anyone.

Newton_14
02-23-2014, 08:42 PM
And Pittsburgh's back on the bubble.

Agree. What in the world has happened to that team? They were so solid for so long. Since our game with them, and the Ennis dagger, they have lost their mojo. They really should have beaten Syracuse and unc. The cuse loss was a fluke shot, but the unc game was a case of just not playing smart down the stretch.

We needed them to be a solid lock for the tourney. This is going to slide UNC into the top 4 and Pitt will miss the first round bye.

Troublemaker
02-23-2014, 09:26 PM
Yeah, Pitt's a team that "uses their depth" but has regressed down the stretch of the season. Man, they've really wasted a nice schedule for them as well. Only 5 games against the top 4 teams: Cuse home-and-away, UNC away, but UVA and Duke at home.

Remember when Old Big East fans were making fun of the ACC while Pitt and Cuse were romping through the early, easy stretch of their conference schedules? Looks like both teams are now finding out that there's some meat to the ACC afterall.

Troublemaker
02-23-2014, 09:28 PM
Agree. What in the world has happened to that team? They were so solid for so long. Since our game with them, and the Ennis dagger, they have lost their mojo. They really should have beaten Syracuse and unc. The cuse loss was a fluke shot, but the unc game was a case of just not playing smart down the stretch.

We needed them to be a solid lock for the tourney. This is going to slide UNC into the top 4 and Pitt will miss the first round bye.

Brogdon dagger, too. Pitt's taken some gut punches this season.

arnie
02-24-2014, 06:16 AM
Brogdon dagger, too. Pitt's taken some gut punches this season.

Enjoyed DBR article this morning on ACC - Quinn Snyder's big 3 against Pitt a turning point for Pitt. Brought back memories. To further pick on DBR, the listed game tonite with Pitt playing Syracuse should be fun!

jv001
02-24-2014, 06:31 AM
Yeah, Pitt's a team that "uses their depth" but has regressed down the stretch of the season. Man, they've really wasted a nice schedule for them as well. Only 5 games against the top 4 teams: Cuse home-and-away, UNC away, but UVA and Duke at home.

Remember when Old Big East fans were making fun of the ACC while Pitt and Cuse were romping through the early, easy stretch of their conference schedules? Looks like both teams are now finding out that there's some meat to the ACC afterall.

The picture is not as pretty for our new friends(Pitt, Cuse & ND) as it was in the beginning of the season. Many on this board said that they would come back down to earth. I'm not saying they are not good teams but they just aren't as good as the media made out. My Syracuse friend told me, just wait, Cuse will lose more than 3 games before the NCAAT. He said that was JBs past record. Since he's from Syracuse, I thought, well, he would know better than me and it looks like he might be correct. Still, Cuse, Pitt, ND and Louisville are going to be great additions to the ACC. GoDuke!

-jk
02-24-2014, 08:41 AM
Enjoyed DBR article this morning on ACC - Quinn Snyder's big 3 against Pitt a turning point for Pitt. Brought back memories. To further pick on DBR, the listed game tonite with Pitt playing Syracuse should be fun!

Thanks, I'll let him know. Those 3am posting times sometimes catch Julian not quite on top of his game...

-jk

OldPhiKap
02-25-2014, 07:49 PM
Wake may be sinking Clemson right now . . . .

arnie
02-26-2014, 06:24 AM
Wake may be sinking Clemson right now . . . .

Appears 5 teams from ACC barring unusual run from middle of pack team. And I still don't think Pitt is a lock- they need 2 more reg season wins to finish 10-8. They're remaining competition is week, but 3 of 4 on road. OOC was weak and by far best win at Stanford. If Pitt completely folds, we could be left with only 4 in tourney.

Wander
02-26-2014, 07:00 AM
I think FSU is in if they avoid upset losses to GT and BC and in the ACC tournament opener. They're the only one of these ACC bubble teams with a halfway decent non-conference resume with two neutral wins against tournament teams and no bad losses. It depends on what other teams do though.

jv001
02-26-2014, 07:58 AM
It seems every year there are some ACC teams that are on the bubble and they fail to take care of business. Clemson, Maryland, NCSU & FSU this year and VT in previous years. When those teams get it together, that's when the ACC's reputation of being the best conference will return. GoDuke!

OldPhiKap
02-26-2014, 08:24 AM
Someone needs to ask Seth Greenberg. Seth knows bubbles.

Matches
02-26-2014, 08:30 AM
SMH @ Clemson, but hopefully that will serve as a useful lesson for us when we go to Wake next week. They are no pushovers at home, and Bzzz may be "coaching" for his job next week.

JasonEvans
02-26-2014, 08:32 AM
Wake may be sinking Clemson right now . . . .

Yes, that loss hurts for Clemson, but I don't think it is fatal. Not at all.

Clemson closes with three home games -- Maryland, Miami, and Pitt. Win all three and I think they are going to get strong bubble consideration. 11-7 in the ACC and 20-10 overall is getting you in, despite a terrible OOC sked. They may need to take care of business in an ACC tourney game to really ensure a bid, but it is not like we are saying they need to go on the road and beat a good club, they merely need to win a few home games against mid-tier ACC teams.

-Jason "all that said, I don't think Clemson will do it and the ACC will only get 5 teams in" Evans

UrinalCake
02-26-2014, 08:37 AM
So which would you prefer - the ACC getting a sixth team in and them losing in the first round as a 9 or 10 seed, or the ACC not getting that team in in the first place? I'd personally prefer the latter, I think it looks bad for the conference to have teams lose in the first round and it lowers the conference's overall win percentage, but I know that fans of the schools involved would probably feel otherwise.

(And when I say first round, you know what I mean.)

OldPhiKap
02-26-2014, 09:05 AM
So which would you prefer - the ACC getting a sixth team in and them losing in the first round as a 9 or 10 seed, or the ACC not getting that team in in the first place? I'd personally prefer the latter, I think it looks bad for the conference to have teams lose in the first round and it lowers the conference's overall win percentage, but I know that fans of the schools involved would probably feel otherwise.

(And when I say first round, you know what I mean.)

I would rather get a team in with a chance to win. Unless that bubble team is UNC or Maryland, in which case I would be rooting for a first round loss in the NIT.

Ichabod Drain
02-26-2014, 09:11 AM
So which would you prefer - the ACC getting a sixth team in and them losing in the first round as a 9 or 10 seed, or the ACC not getting that team in in the first place? I'd personally prefer the latter, I think it looks bad for the conference to have teams lose in the first round and it lowers the conference's overall win percentage, but I know that fans of the schools involved would probably feel otherwise.

(And when I say first round, you know what I mean.)

I'll take the extra team in the tournament. Half the teams in the tournament lose in the first round. If an ACC team makes it in with a 9-10 seed then they either lose when they were supposed to or they get an upset win.

tommy
02-26-2014, 10:21 AM
Yes, that loss hurts for Clemson, but I don't think it is fatal. Not at all.

Clemson closes with three home games -- Maryland, Miami, and Pitt. Win all three and I think they are going to get strong bubble consideration. 11-7 in the ACC and 20-10 overall is getting you in, despite a terrible OOC sked.

Yes, but it would really hurt Pitt. They're teetering right now, and a crunch time loss to Clemson would really be problematic.

JasonEvans
02-26-2014, 10:36 AM
Yes, but it would really hurt Pitt. They're teetering right now, and a crunch time loss to Clemson would really be problematic.

Naah, Pitt has BC, ND, and NC State before the Clemson game. The worst loss on their schedule is FSU. All the others are to very solid tourney teams. Pit has played a very tough schedule and will be rewarded for it. They are 8-6 in the conference and I suspect 10-8 would get them to the dance. 11-7 will certainly do it. I think they merely need to win 2-of-4 down the stretch and then not do something stupid in their first ACC game (likely against a prtty bad ACC team). There's plenty of room for Pitt and Clemson to make it.

-Jason "unless Pitt goes out and starts losing to teams waaay worse than anyone they have lost to thus far, the Panthers will be fine" Evans

Wander
02-26-2014, 10:44 AM
I think some of you guys are getting too caught up in the absolute conference record. Not including each other (they split), Clemson is 1-5 against likely at-large teams with 4 losses to worse teams and FSU is 3-7 with 3 losses to worse teams. FSU's three good wins all came away from home; Clemson's was of course against us at Clemson. FSU has better RPI and kenpom ranking. They're in better shape than Clemson, even with a worse ACC record.

tommy
02-26-2014, 11:04 AM
Naah, Pitt has BC, ND, and NC State before the Clemson game. The worst loss on their schedule is FSU. All the others are to very solid tourney teams. Pit has played a very tough schedule and will be rewarded for it. They are 8-6 in the conference and I suspect 10-8 would get them to the dance. 11-7 will certainly do it. I think they merely need to win 2-of-4 down the stretch and then not do something stupid in their first ACC game (likely against a prtty bad ACC team). There's plenty of room for Pitt and Clemson to make it. -Jason "unless Pitt goes out and starts losing to teams waaay worse than anyone they have lost to thus far, the Panthers will be fine" Evans

Oh, I think Pitt is going to end up getting in as well, but they're not nearly the lock they appeared to be even a few weeks ago. Their RPI is fine now, #42, but they have only one top 50 win (against six losses), and that lone win was way back at Thanksgiving time against Stanford. Their nonconference SOS is #225. In order to lock things down for sure, they definitely need to beat relative patsies BC and Notre Dame, and then at least split the last two, against NC State and at Clemson. If they lose both of those last two, they're going to be plenty nervous going into the ACCT.

And Clemson is #70 in the RPI right now, also with a grand total of one top-50 win (Duke) and losses to Notre Dame (114 RPI) and, worse, Auburn (158 RPI). They also lost to Wake, currently #97, and the Deacons could easily fall below 100, which would make that loss look worse. Twelve of Clemson's 17 wins are against teams rated 150+ in the RPI. Their nonconference SOS is #271 in the country. Committee won't like that. The games they have remaining with Maryland and Miami will hurt their RPI/schedule strength as those are weak, low-rated teams, and then they have Pitt. The Tigers have some serious work yet to do IMO.

I hope they both get in, and they could. Pitt is certainly in a stronger position right now than is Clemson, but even Pitt is not "safely in," IMO.

arnie
02-26-2014, 11:04 AM
Naah, Pitt has BC, ND, and NC State before the Clemson game. The worst loss on their schedule is FSU. All the others are to very solid tourney teams. Pit has played a very tough schedule and will be rewarded for it. They are 8-6 in the conference and I suspect 10-8 would get them to the dance. 11-7 will certainly do it. I think they merely need to win 2-of-4 down the stretch and then not do something stupid in their first ACC game (likely against a prtty bad ACC team). There's plenty of room for Pitt and Clemson to make it.

-Jason "unless Pitt goes out and starts losing to teams waaay worse than anyone they have lost to thus far, the Panthers will be fine" Evans

I don't get the "very tough schedule" you're referring to; but whatever, we can just disagree on that. I agree that they win 2 more reg season and that should do it. I just don't trust them now and could see an upset or 2.

Duvall
02-26-2014, 11:08 AM
So which would you prefer - the ACC getting a sixth team in and them losing in the first round as a 9 or 10 seed, or the ACC not getting that team in in the first place? I'd personally prefer the latter, I think it looks bad for the conference to have teams lose in the first round and it lowers the conference's overall win percentage, but I know that fans of the schools involved would probably feel otherwise.

(And when I say first round, you know what I mean.)

Getting the extra team in means more money for Duke and the ACC, so...

Wander
02-26-2014, 11:10 AM
-Jason "unless Pitt goes out and starts losing to teams waaay worse than anyone they have lost to thus far, the Panthers will be fine" Evans

They did need two overtimes to beat the ACC's worst team at home not that long ago, so anything is possible.

Olympic Fan
02-26-2014, 11:31 AM
Yes, that loss hurts for Clemson, but I don't think it is fatal. Not at all.

Clemson closes with three home games -- Maryland, Miami, and Pitt. Win all three and I think they are going to get strong bubble consideration. 11-7 in the ACC and 20-10 overall is getting you in, despite a terrible OOC sked. They may need to take care of business in an ACC tourney game to really ensure a bid, but it is not like we are saying they need to go on the road and beat a good club, they merely need to win a few home games against mid-tier ACC teams.

I disagree ... I think last night's loss virtually finished Clemson as a bubble team.

Let's assume for a second they win out -- that means home wins against Maryland, Miami and Pitt.

That would leave them with a 20-10 record (11-7 ACC) ... to go along with one of the nation's worst non-conference SOS. They have one good win -- over Duke.

As I mentioned in another thread, that is almost exactly the same resume as Virginia had a year ago -- even down to the similar NSOS and the one quality win over Duke. Virginia not only missed the field, but in post-selection interviews, the old selection committee chairman didn't even mention them as one of the teams that was close.

Maybe if Clemson makes a deep run in Greensboro (and I don't mean by winning on Thursday), they can get into the conversation. But right now, they are not a team that is even on the radar. That Wake loss was fatal.

As for Pitt, right now they are not a bubble team. I think the fear is that they are sliding fast. They've lost five of the last seven and the two wins were in double overtime -- at home -- to Virginia Tech and in overtime at Miami -- two bad teams. Three of their last four are on the road -- the next two are at BC and at Notre Dame -- two teams they should beat, If they don't, it will be time to panic.

If Pitt BECOMES a bubble team, then there are real concerns -- at that point, their weak non-conference SOS kicks in and their lack of top 50 wins.

In the end, I agree that the ACC is likely to get five teams. But I fear that four bids is more likely than six bids.

OldPhiKap
02-26-2014, 11:50 AM
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

FWIW, ESPN's Bubble Watch has four teams locked in (Duke, Syr, UVa, UNLC). Says Pitt is okay at present because it does not have any bad losses but notes the two games coming up on the road. Calls FSU a "fringe bubble" team. No mention of anyone else.

Also, Lunardi has FSU on the list of teams just on the outside of the tournament:

http://espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

(More importantly, he has us as a #2 seed in Raleigh and has UNC shipped out to Spokane -- please don't have us sharing a pod in Raleigh!)

rsvman
02-26-2014, 12:47 PM
Someone needs to ask Seth Greenberg. Seth knows bubbles.

To be fair, though, Seth's particular area of expertise is likely in the "first four out" category more so than the "last four in."