Duke-Maryland: A Second Look

[Olympic Fan]

I finally got around to watching the TV replay of the Duke-Maryland game. I wanted to break down a few of the topics that have been debated on this message board.

-- First, with all the attention given Maryland's last shot, did anybody notice that the first shot of the game was almost exactly the same thing -- Mitchell put it up from point blank range ... the ball bounced back rim, front rim, hung for a millisecond, then fell off (Parker rebounded). Crazy that the ball bounced the same way on Maryland's first and last shots. But in between, almost every bounce on the rim went their way ... while Duke has at least half a dozen shots roll off the rim.

-- Just before Wells' 3-pointer to give Maryland the 67-64 lead, Sulaimon was hit by a bogus offensive foul. Doris Burke, watching realtime, said it was a good call and that Rasheed used his off arm to push off. When she saw the replay, she admitted that it showed nothing of the sort -- Allen banged into a driving Sulaimon, whose off arm was actually across his own body and never came close to pushing Allen off.

-- After Hood's free throw (Layman got called for the foul on almost exactly the same contact that led to the offensive foul on Sulaimon) was the key defensive possession of the game. Maryland up 67-66 and the ball in Wells' red-hot hands. Hood is on him, but he rubs him off on a screen and that leaves him one-on-one with Amile. Wells tries the same jab-step, pull up 3 that he just hit in Hood's face. Only Jefferson blocks the ball loose as he brings it up. Wells recovers and drives. He tries to whip a pass to Mitchell underneath, but Parker bats the pass back into the lane. Amazingly, Wells comes up with it again and this time starts to go up for about a 3-foot shot in traffic. But Thornton, just behind him, reaches in and pokes the ball loose -- Jefferson comes up with the loose ball (setting up the go-ahead possession on Jabari's dunk). Great sequence -- with superb defensive plays by Jefferson, Parker and Thornton to prevent the Terps from scoring.

-- On the last possession, the pass goes into a wide open Mitchell under the basket. Duke's good luck that he fumbles the pass, giving Jefferson, Hood and Parker time to surround him. Because he fumbles the ball, his first move is not traveling. But he finally secures possession on the right side of the basket ... and he clearly hops twice to left side of the basket, where he puts it up. It's swatted out of bounds by Parker.

-- I notice a lot of people wondering why Hood was on Mitchell on the last play. He didn't start that way. As Maryland lines up for the inbounds, Jefferson is on Mitchell. But they rub him off a screen and Hood takes him on the switch. Turgeon later said the plan was for Wells (who made the inbounds pass) to get a handoff from Mitchell (the same play Duke uses for 90 percent of its inbounds plays). On replay, you can see that Thornton denies that pass, forcing Mitchell to keep the ball. Hood is not strong enough to stop him backing in, but he is long enough for him to have to add a little extra on the hook -- just enough to miss.

-- It goes without saying that Thornton made a great play tipping the rebound to Amile. Both Mitchell and Wells were in position to follow it. They might have knocked rach other off it, but I'm glad we didn't have to depend on that. Hood basically played spectator after the shot went up. Jefferson was outside, depending on the perimeter. That left Parker (who was blocking out well on the other side of the basket) and Thornton to contest the rebound.

I will say this, Parker made the winning dunk that got all the pub on SportsCenter -- and it was well-deserved. But down the stretch, Jefferson and Thornton made a ton of winning plays.

One final note: I tried to watch the 3-pointers Duke took during the game to see if we were forcing them or Maryland was defending well. There were a couple of bad ones and Maryland bounced a couple, but on the whole, I thought we took the same 3-pointers we usually take ... they just didn't go. Thornton took four wide open 3s and in all four instances he had his feet set and was on balance. He almost always hits those shots (he was 53 percent coming into the fame and at least half his misses were off-balanced or rushed 3s).

It makes me think that the bad shooting was a fluke. If Duke gets back to its normal 40-plus percent 3-point shooting, everything will be fine.

[GGLC]

Nice post, Oly. Your analysis seems right on, and you're absolutely correct about what a great job Amile and Tyler did late.

I also agree that for the most part we took good three-pointers that just weren't falling. I'm sure Maryland's defensive scheme played a part in making us work to find open looks, but if we'd hit even one or two of the ones we had, it would have been a whole different game.

On another note, I know he was saddled with foul trouble, but I wonder at how it could have happened that Dez Wells only had one shot attempt all game until some point a few minutes into the second half. I'm glad they didn't make the concerted effort to get the ball to him earlier on, or he could have had forty.

[Kedsy]

On another note, I know he was saddled with foul trouble, but I wonder at how it could have happened that Dez Wells only had one shot attempt all game until some point a few minutes into the second half. I'm glad they didn't make the concerted effort to get the ball to him earlier on, or he could have had forty.

Wasn't Rodney guarding Wells in the first half? Once he got into foul trouble, though, Wells went off. I guess it could be a coincidence, or Maryland not making an effort to get Wells the ball in the first half, but my guess is it isn't.

[GGLC]

Wasn't Rodney guarding Wells in the first half? Once he got into foul trouble, though, Wells went off. I guess it could be a coincidence, or Maryland not making an effort to get Wells the ball in the first half, but my guess is it isn't.

I don't think the timeline works out. Rodney was on the bench for much of the first half for foul trouble, yet Wells was only 0-1 as of (if my memory serves) ~12 minutes to go in the game.

Also, I'm pretty sure that most of Wells's scoring down the stretch came when Rodney was in the game (though I don't know if he was guarding him).

[greybeard]

Nice post, Oly. Your analysis seems right on, and you're absolutely correct about what a great job Amile and Tyler did late.

I also agree that for the most part we took good three-pointers that just weren't falling. I'm sure Maryland's defensive scheme played a part in making us work to find open looks, but if we'd hit even one or two of the ones we had, it would have been a whole different game.

On another note, I know he was saddled with foul trouble, but I wonder at how it could have happened that Dez Wells only had one shot attempt all game until some point a few minutes into the second half. I'm glad they didn't make the concerted effort to get the ball to him earlier on, or he could have had forty.

Well said.

I do not think that the 3s taken were taken relaxed or in usual form. Thornton usually glides into the shot, sliding his right leg forward as, with the same tempo, he extends into shooting. I think that you will not see that same glide and ease. I think that this was due to Maryland's defense.

Dawkins went up easily but from farther out than you would expect. These were not late-in-the-clock shots. Dawkins seemed to roam further out, a step or two, than he normally would, and, though uncontested, or perhaps because of it, looked kind of stilted.

Maryland's defense played well together and everyone seemed to have an excellent feel for space, to not close onto a shooter when the catch was where Maryland wanted it. This was my sense of it. Also, the shots came too easily, too early in the clock sometimes with little effort. It was as if Maryland was dictating Duke's offensive tempo, how early Duke would shoot, but the "easy" was not there, there was something different happening that made the shooter not comfortable.

I thought Layman fouled Amile on the catch. Came into him from across the lane with considerable momentum. Amile did not seem to budge, but he had to have had his organization disrupted. He had to try to reorganize to shoot, and I don't think that he ever found it. How else does one explain his failure to get rim. If Amile had not held firm against Layman's torso bump, I believe that a foul would have been called.

If the heads want to keep talking about an inch having made all the difference, I'm asking which inch, the first or the second. Duke won. Next game.

[-jk]

I asked this earlier: In the first half, Maryland's really big guy, Mitchell, knocked Tyler to the floor, and hard. Shortly after, Tyler had his right wrist taped. After that, I think he went 1-2 FT and missed all his 3's.

Anyone know how he's doing? I like him as a 50% 3 shooter...

-jk

[Troublemaker]

-- On the last possession, the pass goes into a wide open Mitchell under the basket. Duke's good luck that he fumbles the pass, giving Jefferson, Hood and Parker time to surround him. Because he fumbles the ball, his first move is not traveling.


Great breakdown of some key plays, Oly Fan. For this play that I'm quoting, it's possible Hood had something to do with Mitchell's fumble. It's hard to tell from the TV angle but it's possible Mitchell's bobble was actually a strip by Hood who was flying across the baseline to challenge the shot. Or perhaps the distraction of seeing Hood fly across the baseline might've caused the bobble as well.

[Reilly]

ACC took second look at possession arrow ...
http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/terps/tracking-the-terps/bal-acc-official-acknowledges-mistake-with-possession-arrow-in-terpsduke-game-20140216,0,6413826.story

[OldPhiKap]

Wrong. Clearly, a blown call with almost seven minutes to go was the sole cause of Maryland's victory being stolen from them.

Not to worry, I hear that tOSU gets all the calls in the Big##.


(Very nice post and breakdown)

[buddy]

I should have known. The fact that the officials gave Maryland an extra two seconds with the shot clock just confirms that they got screwed! To review, after awarding Maryland the ball on the shot clock violation (the correct call), the officials reset the clock to :20.9, which was the time on the game clock when the shot clock was reset. However, at that point, there were till 2 seconds on the shot clock. Now, after Mitchell's miss, Amile went to foul line with :01.1 on the clock, and made one foul shot. Without the extra two seconds, his made shot doesn't count. Take away his shot, and the basket Duke made on the blown alternate possession, and Maryland wins by one. See how easy this is. Even when Maryland gets a call (extra time) it screws them!

Seriously, I expect the officials may have received an unpleasant phone call from the conference. Wonder if they will discuss the vagaries of the continuation call on Dez Wells. Mark Gottfried probably wants them to study films of Dez Wells and do a compare and contrast with T.J. Warren.

[CDu]

Wasn't Rodney guarding Wells in the first half? Once he got into foul trouble, though, Wells went off. I guess it could be a coincidence, or Maryland not making an effort to get Wells the ball in the first half, but my guess is it isn't.


I don't think the timeline works out. Rodney was on the bench for much of the first half for foul trouble, yet Wells was only 0-1 as of (if my memory serves) ~12 minutes to go in the game.

Also, I'm pretty sure that most of Wells's scoring down the stretch came when Rodney was in the game (though I don't know if he was guarding him).

It is true that Hood had to sit for much of the first half with 2 and then 3 fouls. So I don't think Hood is the answer here.

I believe that Thornton was guarding Wells down the stretch as Hood had 4 fouls and we couldn't afford him guarding the aggressive Wells.

[UrinalCake]

I should have known. The fact that the officials gave Maryland an extra two seconds with the shot clock just confirms that they got screwed!

I don't think that extra time made that much difference. Maryland was going to hold for the last shot no matter what. With 19 seconds they waited until there was a certain amount of time left, probably 10 seconds or so, before initiating their offense. If they had started with 17 seconds, they still would have initiated their offense with 10 seconds left. The only difference would be two less seconds of standing and dribbling. You can't just shift everything back two seconds and assume Maryland would just let the shot clock run out.

[OldPhiKap]

the vagaries of the continuation call on Dez Wells

That is much more polite than I could put it.

[DukeDevil]

That is much more polite than I could put it.

This is likely because I've had disjointed sleep for 3 days due to work, but what play are you guys referring to specifically?

[buddy]

[QUOTE=UrinalCake;704923]Obviously you missed my sarcasm about the extra two seconds.

[Thurber Whyte]

With the shot clock violation, Jefferson caught the ball after the missed shot and immediately called a timeout. He seemed to have the ball in his hands and signaling for a timeout by at least 20.0 seconds. We should have had the ball out of bounds with a second or so on the shot clock. Any amount of time above 0.3 seconds is enough for a catch and shoot. That is a tough shot, but it still would have given us a chance at a field goal or offensive rebound.

One thing that bothered me was that, on several occasions, Maryland’s guards seemed to be using their arms to clear out on dribbles. How much of an advantage they gained is not clear, but putting your elbow into an opponent’s chest on a dribble used to be an automatic call.

However, that is the essence of terping: pick one call out of many debatable ones and then talk about how that call exclusively impacted the entire game. If the call is indisputably wrong as it was with the possession arrow, well, then that settles the matter.

Maryland’s bench should take some responsibility for the mistake with the possession arrow. They should have been keeping track of who had the possession arrow. The problem seems to be that the refs did not signal to the scorer’s table their ruling of a held ball. If so, then what was the call? If Maryland’s bench assumed it was a held ball, then why did they not question the awarding of possession to Duke on the next held ball? I was wondering what was going on at home.

[devilnfla]

Speaking of Terping, wonder if they forgot about the technical foul called on their coach in the first half that the refs decided to overturn?

That was 2 extra points (the way we were shooting ft's) that would/could have changed the outcome.

[Tripping William]

Speaking of Terping, wonder if they forgot about the technical foul called on their coach in the first half that the refs decided to overturn?

That was 2 extra points (the way we were shooting ft's) that would/could have changed the outcome.

I was in Cameron on Saturday & could not figure out why (shortly after Wells picked up his third foul) K and Turgeon and the refs seemed to be having a mutual stare-down and/or barking contest. Someone subsequently mentioned something about a recanted technical foul call on Turgeon (he had been toeing that line for a chunk of the first half), but I have not yet read any meaningful details. Thanks.

[OldPhiKap]

This is likely because I've had disjointed sleep for 3 days due to work, but what play are you guys referring to specifically?

Wells driving to the basket, and fouled as he took his last dribble. He gathered the ball, went up, and laid it off the backboard. Basket should not have counted.

[jv001]

ACC took second look at possession arrow ...
http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/terps/tracking-the-terps/bal-acc-official-acknowledges-mistake-with-possession-arrow-in-terpsduke-game-20140216,0,6413826.story

Maybe this is pay back for all the abuse Duke fans suffered while viewing Duke-Terp games in MD. I really think they owe us more and maybe we'll get it in the ACCT. GoDuke!

[gus]

With the shot clock violation, Jefferson caught the ball after the missed shot and immediately called a timeout. He seemed to have the ball in his hands and signaling for a timeout by at least 20.0 seconds. We should have had the ball out of bounds with a second or so on the shot clock. Any amount of time above 0.3 seconds is enough for a catch and shoot. That is a tough shot, but it still would have given us a chance at a field goal or offensive rebound.

Jabari grabbed the rebound to start that possession at almost exactly 55 seconds. That's when the shot clock was re-set to 35. Jefferson didn't have control of the ball until the clock ticked down to 20.0:

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Then again, the clock was reset to 20.9, which suggets the officials thought Parker caught the ball at 55.9. I'm having trouble freeze framing to that moment, but I really think it was closer to 55.0. Regardless, it's really close, but I think the shot clock violation is a good call.

Can you imagine though, if that call had gone against Maryland at Maryland? The booing would be deafening.

[Thurber Whyte]

Thanks Gus for a more thorough investigation. My own recollection watching it live and confirmed watching this video (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XO6uDTF3D7o) was that the 2 disappeared from the shot clock and it went blank around the 20.9 mark suggesting Duke potentially had until 18.9 to get another shot off. However, looking at the linked video again it seems that shot clock was in sync with the game clock to the exact 10th of a second and counting down toward 20 on the game clock as you suggest meaning that the 2 disappeared just at the point it would have turned over to 1 so you are right. It probably was a good call. Not that it made a difference at that point, that still leaves the mystery of how the game clock gets reset to 20.9 rather than 20.0.

[Ultrarunner]

Wells driving to the basket, and altered course and plowed into Quin to create contact as he took his last dribble. He gathered the ball, went up, and laid it off the backboard. Basket should not have counted.

Just a correction based on the what I could see from the computer but Wells could have been called for the charge on that one. Quin was back-pedaling to get out of the way and Wells changed course and clobbered Quin with his shoulder.

It was right after that play that Doris said he might do really well at the next level. I got my doubts. . .

[-bdbd]

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Then again, the clock was reset to 20.9, which suggets the officials thought Parker caught the ball at 55.9. I'm having trouble freeze framing to that moment, but I really think it was closer to 55.0. Regardless, it's really close, but I think the shot clock violation is a good call.

Can you imagine though, if that call had gone against Maryland at Maryland? The booing would be deafening.



Trust me, at Comcast, the booing would have been the least of the refs' concerns...

Can you say "thrown bottles/debris" and "bodily harm"???!!

:eek:

[Jarhead]

We can debate this forever, but that is not the shot clock showing 20.3 seconds. That's the game clock. The shot clock is not showing anything. When the game clock stopped, I thought in response to the time out call, the shot clock was showing 2 seconds which then disappeared. What happened was another blown call. Get the chaplain to punch your TS card. C'est la vie!

[gus]

We can debate this forever, but that is not the shot clock showing 20.3 seconds. That's the game clock. The shot clock is not showing anything. When the game clock stopped, I thought in response to the time out call, the shot clock was showing 2 seconds which then disappeared. What happened was another blown call. Get the chaplain to punch your TS card. C'est la vie!

The shotclock was incorrectly reset (unless you're arguing that Amile's shot hit rim), so I'm judging based on game clock. I think Parker got control of the rebound at 55.0. The officials apparently believe it was at 55.9. The refs in their review (which they now are allowed to do for a shot clock violation in the last 2 minutes of a game) have a stopwatch and would start timing from the moment Duke gained possession to when 35 seconds elapses. The timeout happens after that 35 second period, regardless of whether you start counting at 55.0 (like I did) or 55.9 (like the people with the best means of evaluating it did).

[Papa John]

The shotclock was incorrectly reset (unless you're arguing that Amile's shot hit rim), so I'm judging based on game clock. I think Parker got control of the rebound at 55.0. The officials apparently believe it was at 55.9. The refs in their review (which they now are allowed to do for a shot clock violation in the last 2 minutes of a game) have a stopwatch and would start timing from the moment Duke gained possession to when 35 seconds elapses. The timeout happens after that 35 second period, regardless of whether you start counting at 55.0 (like I did) or 55.9 (like the people with the best means of evaluating it did).

It's actually a lot easier (and more fair) to correctly assess the situation than running a stopwatch when you or the officials "believe" Duke got possession, however. Just wind the replay to a frame in which the shot clock changes during that possession and read what the game clock says then—the difference is what the game clock should read if Duke was guilty of a shot-clock violation. After all, when the shot clock begins to run provides the context for that possession for all 10 players on the floor, both coaches, and the officials (whereas subjectively determining in hindsight when one "believes" the possession began then counting 35 seconds off a stopwatch from there runs counter to the actual context in which that play unfolded).

So, I went back to the replay and did a frame-by-frame analysis, freezing on the frame in which the shot clock changed from 3 to 2. At that moment, the game clock reads 21.6. So, if the officials agree that Duke is guilty of a shot-clock violation, then the game clock should read 19.6 (21.6 - 2). If, however, the officials decide that the stoppage in play occurred at 20.9 (which is what they ultimately set the game clock to for the restart), then it should be Duke ball with 1.3 left on the shot clock—that simple. Personally, I think the correct call should have been shot-clock violation, MD ball with 19.6 seconds left in the game.

So, in the end, we got an extra possession on the alternating possession rule while MD got an extra 2.3 seconds (the 1.3 they got when they were given possession after the shot clock violation plus the 1 second that was added back to the clock after Amile was fouled with 0.1 left on the clock), 4 steps (Mitchell's double bunny-hop prior to his first shot attempt on MD's last possession), and 3 seconds in the lane (Mitchell's camp-out in the paint for 6+ seconds during that final bunny-hop, missed chip-shot, O-board, put-back-attempt, second missed chip-shot)... It was relatively sloppy officiating down the stretch going both ways, so I tend to think it balanced out...

[sadterp]

"It was relatively sloppy officiating down the stretch going both ways, so I tend to think it balanced out..."

Concur. Good analysis.

Also: you guys are hurting me. It's true that there are some Maryland fans who are complaining that the bad officiating is sign of a Duke bias, but you get a few idiots in any fan base. From all the MD fan posts I've read, that vast majority recognize that there was sloppy officiating, full stop, and that a number of calls went Maryland's way that didn't have to, particularly the shot clock violation. The conversation on my side of the fence has mainly concentrated on Maryland playing terrific ball to be within a shot of beating Duke at CIS, recognition that that is a sign of tremendous improvement over where the team was even a month ago, and on how that shot will stay with Charles Mitchell for as long as he lives.

Also: what relationship does the main DBR blog have with the forum? Because there seems to be a ... difference ... in editorial content between the folks on the forum and what gets posted to the blog. JD King, in particular, seems a bit uncharitable in quoting a single reddit user as being representative of the entire Maryland fanbase, whereas the posts I've been reading on the EK forum have been more even-handed.

[gus]

Personally, I think the correct call should have been shot-clock violation, MD ball with 19.6 seconds left in the game.

Yeah - I still don't see how they came up with 20.9. The extra time is meaningless though.


, in the end, we got an extra possession on the alternating possession rule while MD got an extra 2.3 seconds (the 1.3 they got when they were given possession after the shot clock violation plus the 1 second that was added back to the clock after Amile was fouled with 0.1 left on the clock), 4 steps (Mitchell's double bunny-hop prior to his first shot attempt on MD's last possession), and 3 seconds in the lane (Mitchell's camp-out in the paint for 6+ seconds during that final bunny-hop, missed chip-shot, O-board, put-back-attempt, second missed chip-shot)... It was relatively sloppy officiating down the stretch going both ways, so I tend to think it balanced out...

I thought Mitchell traveled before his last shot, but I don't know why people keeping saying he should have had a 3 second violation. Mitchell got the pass within 3 seconds of entering the paint and attempted a shot. It doesn't matter how long he was in the paint after getting the ball, as long as he immediately moves in to attempt a field goal, which he did.

[Papa John]

The conversation on my side of the fence has mainly concentrated on Maryland playing terrific ball to be within a shot of beating Duke at CIS, recognition that that is a sign of tremendous improvement over where the team was even a month ago, and on how that shot will stay with Charles Mitchell for as long as he lives.

And I concur with this. But we love to pick nits here... It's part of our charm... ;)

What I will never understand is why Turgeon elected to take the ball out of the hands of Wells at the end, when he was the guy who put you back in the game. I would have let it ride with him...

[Saratoga2]

Jabari grabbed the rebound to start that possession at almost exactly 55 seconds. That's when the shot clock was re-set to 35. Jefferson didn't have control of the ball until the clock ticked down to 20.0:

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Then again, the clock was reset to 20.9, which suggets the officials thought Parker caught the ball at 55.9. I'm having trouble freeze framing to that moment, but I really think it was closer to 55.0. Regardless, it's really close, but I think the shot clock violation is a good call.

Can you imagine though, if that call had gone against Maryland at Maryland? The booing would be deafening.


With Duke catching the ball at 55.9 sec? why did they bring the ball down and take the air out of the ball, only making a pressured shot at about 22 secs. The shot had to be forced and when they missed, they gave Maryland the chance to come down and win the game. Fortunately, Maryland didn't score but they came oh so close. If Duke had come down and drove the lane and got a shot off in 100 sec., they had a chance of scoring or getting fouled and also leaving around 45 seconds on the clock. They would have also had a chance for a win, even if Maryland had scored. What was done seemed like poor strategy.

[sadterp]

And I concur with this. But we love to pick nits here... It's part of our charm... ;)

What I will never understand is why Turgeon elected to take the ball out of the hands of Wells at the end, when he was the guy who put you back in the game. I would have let it ride with him...

My understanding is that the play was in fact drawn up for Dez, but it broke down under defensive pressure. However, Turgeon apparently said at the post-game that Mitchell got as good a look as any we had that night. It just didn't fall. As was pointed out elsewhere in this thread, the correct shot would have been to muscle towards the basket instead of taking a baby hook, but that's due to inexperience. Mitchell is a sophomore.

When I first saw it, I thought the play had been intentionally drawn up for Mitchell, and was one of those things that would have been brilliant if it worked, because Mitchell had been a matchup problem for Duke all night, and everybody was expecting Dez to get the shot.