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moonpie23
02-09-2014, 08:36 AM
may as well get this started……folks on IC are feeling pretty positive about their team now…….hope we take the same fire we've been taking into other road games lately….


tokoto and mcadoo on hood/parker?

bbosbbos
02-09-2014, 08:39 AM
ghcgh

DU82
02-09-2014, 08:46 AM
goduke.com has the game at 9PM EST, not 9:30. No doubt ESPN will drag things out (just like the Wake game actually started at ~9:15) but officially it appears to still be at nine.

roywhite
02-09-2014, 09:13 AM
Over/under on the number of times McAdoo attempts to draw charging fouls on Jabari Parker?

One of the TDD posters has labeled him James Mackeral McAdoo for his flopping

It's a key matchup

jimrowe0
02-09-2014, 09:20 AM
I am more worried about Meeks and Page. Meeks is a big body and has a variety of post moves and can hit short jumpers. I am not sure if Amile will be able to defend Meeks. However, Page is the key against UNC. If we can limit him then we should win easily. This will be a game where the bonusphere, 3 point shot, will give us a huge advantage. If we are knocking down threes and rebounding well then we should win by 15.

Kedsy
02-09-2014, 10:48 AM
I wrote this article (http://bluedevilnation.net/2013/02/dukecarolina-anything-can-happen-right/) last year for Blue Devil Nation.

During Coach K's time here, when one of Duke/UNC is ranked and the other unranked, the ranked team has won 21 out of 25 times. Since 1991, when one of Duke/UNC is ranked and the other unranked, the ranked team has won 15 out of 16.

Obviously the past doesn't define the future, but I'm feeling fairly optimistic in this one.

freshmanjs
02-09-2014, 10:49 AM
I wrote this article (http://bluedevilnation.net/2013/02/dukecarolina-anything-can-happen-right/) last year for Blue Devil Nation.

During Coach K's time here, when one of Duke/UNC is ranked and the other unranked, the ranked team has won 21 out of 25 times. Since 1991, when one of Duke/UNC is ranked and the other unranked, the ranked team has won 15 out of 16.

Obviously the past doesn't define the future, but I'm feeling fairly optimistic in this one.

do you still think they are no better than wake and not a top 50 team (maybe not top 100)?

Kedsy
02-09-2014, 10:58 AM
do you still think they are no better than wake and not a top 50 team (maybe not top 100)?

I think they're top 100 -- that was hyperbole. If I was ranking by the eye test right now I'd put them near the bottom of the top 50. And, yeah, I don't think they're much better than Wake overall, if any.

UNC is currently ranked #26 by Pomeroy, #33 by Sagarin, and #36 in the RPI. I think the Heels are overrated in Pomeroy, and frankly a little high in the others, but computers know better than I do, so I suppose I could live with a ranking in the mid-30s. That said, Carolina still has work to do if they want to make the NCAA tournament.

Dukehky
02-09-2014, 11:02 AM
I think they're top 100 -- that was hyperbole. If I was ranking by the eye test right now I'd put them near the bottom of the top 50. And, yeah, I don't think they're much better than Wake overall, if any.

UNC is currently ranked #26 by Pomeroy, #33 by Sagarin, and #36 in the RPI. I think the Heels are overrated in Pomeroy, and frankly a little high in the others, but computers know better than I do, so I suppose I could live with a ranking in the mid-30s. That said, Carolina still has work to do if they want to make the NCAA tournament.

We will be back in the top 10 this week, which will continue the streak of at least one of Duke or UNC being in the top ten when they play to very long. Anybody got the number on that one?

Matches
02-09-2014, 11:03 AM
Two keys for us:

1. Stay in front of Paige.

2. Avoid foul trouble. McAdoo's weaknesses have been well-documented at this point, but he does get to the line an awful lot. I expect the Holes to feed the post pretty relentlessly with the idea of getting Amile and Jabari in foul trouble.

Defensively I don't think they can stop us. Their blueprint for beating us is for Paige to go off and to hammer us on the glass.

Kedsy
02-09-2014, 11:06 AM
We will be back in the top 10 this week, which will continue the streak of at least one of Duke or UNC being in the top ten when they play to very long. Anybody got the number on that one?

If we're in the top 10 this week, it would be the 76th time in the last 78 Duke/UNC games that one or the other (or both) is in the top 10.

BD80
02-09-2014, 11:11 AM
I wrote this article (http://bluedevilnation.net/2013/02/dukecarolina-anything-can-happen-right/) last year for Blue Devil Nation.

During Coach K's time here, when one of Duke/UNC is ranked and the other unranked, the ranked team has won 21 out of 25 times. Since 1991, when one of Duke/UNC is ranked and the other unranked, the ranked team has won 15 out of 16.

Obviously the past doesn't define the future, but I'm feeling fairly optimistic in this one.

Without looking at specific games, the schedule and nature of the polls would tend to justify the results. The Duke/unc games are at the ends of the halves of the conference schedule, so there is certainly enough basis to justify where the teams are ranked. Further, if Duke or unc are not ranked, there must be a pretty good reason.

mpj96
02-09-2014, 11:21 AM
Kedsy's stats are nice to read but I have a hard time feeling like anything is a lock in this game. While far from world beaters UNC seems pretty well built to give us a run and they will be amped for this one. They are big down low and many of the teams we have struggled with this year share that trait. Hitting the boards, threes and shutting down Paige seem key to me.

Go Duke, gthc, gth.

Kedsy
02-09-2014, 11:28 AM
If we're in the top 10 this week, it would be the 76th time in the last 78 Duke/UNC games that one or the other (or both) is in the top 10.

I just re-counted, and my new count says it will be the 73rd time in the last 76 Duke/UNC games that one or the other (or both) is in the top 10.

The last time neither team has been in the top 10 was in the 2003 ACC Tournament (Duke #12; UNC unranked). This week's game will be the 22nd Duke/UNC game since then.

Saratoga2
02-09-2014, 11:37 AM
No long term fan will expect anything other than a tough game on Wednesday. We still have issues with defense and teams like to drive against us, pound the ball inside and back door us. Even the 3 ball worked against us at BC. We tend to have a problem with our bigs getting into foul trouble and/or tired, so I really hope Marshall recovers from his slight knee injury (sprain?) to play (especially against Meeks). UNC always likes to fast break and no doubt will try to out hustle us back up the floor. We need to keep fresh bodies in the game at guard and we do have a lot of talent to use.

Our main guys are going to get a lot of minutes, unless foul trouble gets in the way, so Quinn, Amile, Jabari, Rodney and Rasheed will be in the game a lot together. I prefer lines using Quinn with Matt and also Tyler with Rasheed. Together, they have the ball handling and defensive presence that I don't think Quinn and Tyler offer as a pair. In my view Andre can sub for Rodney and let him get a solid breather. Rodney did not perform at his best against BC with unsure ball handling and seemingly a tired personna. I also like Rasheed and Andre as the 1, 2 guards but that won't occur very often. Devastating offense and very solid defense with a lost in ball handling.

I prefer using Marshall and Semi to sub for Amile and Jabari. Asking Hood to fill in there is putting a lot on his shoulders, perhaps more than a guy with his build can handle. Josh can fill in but I wouldn't think his play has justified many minutes at this point.

So keep the pressure on UNC, make sure Meeks has a big body on him and keep fresh defensive guards to limit their outside shooters. Oh, and hit our foul shots.

MChambers
02-09-2014, 11:50 AM
It's interesting to see how short UNC's bench is at this point. Here's the distribution from yesterday's game against ND:

Paige 36
McAdoo 35
Tokoto 33
McDonald 29
Johnson 21
Britt 19
Meeks 12
Hubert 6
James 4
Simmons 3
Hicks 3

Really looks like Duke is the deeper team, in both talent and bench usage.

davekay1971
02-09-2014, 12:01 PM
Two interesting developments in the BC game that may translate to the UNC game

1) Plumlee and his "non-serious" knee issue. Plumlee was held out of a game against a small opponent, perhaps with our coach wanting him to be healthy to give good minutes against Meeks and UNC, which is a very good rebounding team overall. No doubt AJ will start and get as many minutes as his performance and the foul situation will allow, but I expect we'll see Plumlee and Hairston getting opportunity to wrestle with Carolina's big boys. Plumlee is the one guy we've got who can out-size and out-muscle meeks.

2) The Durham Herald-Sun write-up indicated that Duke made a halftime switch in defensive philosophy to not pick up quite so far out, and to not switch on everything. This may be a good tactic against UNC, who is a bag-o-weed, a loaded-handgun, and a borrowed car away from having a great outside shooter. Paige is a decent three point shooter, but I'd rather our guys take their chances with letting him hit a few, rather than playing right in his grill and him getting into the lane to cause havoc with our defense. Once upon a time (ahem, King Rice) K simply refused to have out guys play back, at all, even on a good driver/terrible outside shooter. I wonder if Cook/Thornton/Sulaimon will be given the instruction to stay one step back and guard the drive over the 3 on Paige.

Back to Kedsy's posts - UNC, a few weeks ago, was barely at top 50 team, if that. But they've improved in the last 3 weeks, and they probably deserve their mid 30s multi-dork-poll rating. I think, right now, they're safely on the inside of the bubble.

With all that, though, Duke has also improved in the last 3 weeks, and we've improved much more than they have, to a much higher level. UNC has improved to being a solidly-in-the-tournament team. Duke has improved to being a national championship contender. They have a size advantage. We have an advantage in every other aspect of the game...and I'm not willing to concede yet that Carolina's size advantage even translates to a rebounding advantage. We've been consistently out rebounding opponents, even big teams like FSU, since Jabari and the rest of the team made their obvious shift in focus to concentrate on the glass. Amile and Jabari have both proven to be great rebounders, bigger than their size would suggest. I wouldn't be surprised to see us end up holding our own on the glass...maybe even out rebounding them.

MCFinARL
02-09-2014, 12:07 PM
It's interesting to see how short UNC's bench is at this point. Here's the distribution from yesterday's game against ND:

Paige 36
McAdoo 35
Tokoto 33
McDonald 29
Johnson 21
Britt 19
Meeks 12
Hubert 6
James 4
Simmons 3
Hicks 3

Really looks like Duke is the deeper team, in both talent and bench usage.

Generally speaking, I'd agree, although it wouldn't look like it if you compared yesterday's distribution for Duke:

Parker 38
Hood 30
Jefferson 29
Thornton 27
Sulaimon 25
Cook 26
Jones 6
Hairston 2
Ojeleye 8
Dawkins 8
Pagliuca 2

Of course if Marshall could have played this might have looked a little bit different, but maybe not much. Duke is capable of going deeper, but will they? We'll see.

brevity
02-09-2014, 12:27 PM
I wrote this article (http://bluedevilnation.net/2013/02/dukecarolina-anything-can-happen-right/) last year for Blue Devil Nation.

During Coach K's time here, when one of Duke/UNC is ranked and the other unranked, the ranked team has won 21 out of 25 times. Since 1991, when one of Duke/UNC is ranked and the other unranked, the ranked team has won 15 out of 16.

Obviously the past doesn't define the future, but I'm feeling fairly optimistic in this one.

Last night I was wondering whether UNC would be ranked Monday, given their 5-game winning streak and the self-fulfilling hype machine for Wednesday's game. Looking at last week's AP rankings, I see four teams leaving the Top 25: #19 Oklahoma State, #21 Oklahoma, #22 Connecticut, #23 Gonzaga. Ohio State will climb back in, and SMU is ascendant after their crushing of Cincinnati, leaving two openings. But I just don't see UNC, which received no votes last week, leapfrogging all the unranked teams that did.

Kedsy
02-09-2014, 12:34 PM
Obviously upsets happen all the time, and UNC has proven they can beat more talented teams like Michigan State, Louisville, and Kentucky. That said, basketball, while not a one-on-one game, is a game of matchups, and I think we match up pretty well with the Tar Heels. They've been consistently playing 7 guys (their 8th guy rarely if ever sees more than 6 minutes), and we've been essentially playing 8, so it's not that hard to compare.

Let's start with the backcourt. Everyone's worried about Paige, but a side-by-side comparison between Paige and Quinn Cook (http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/compare?add=marcus-paige&p1=quinn-cook) shows that, statistically, they're nearly identical players. Paige plays more minutes than Quinn and gets to the line more, so he scores a few more points, but other than that, the numbers are remarkably similar.

The rest of UNC's backcourt is Tokoto, McDonald, and Britt. Duke's corresponding players are Rasheed, Andre, and Tyler. Statistically and eye test, that's a HUGE advantage for Duke.

Now, to the frontcourt, where UNC is supposedly so much bigger than us. Now that Roy plays a shorter rotation, however, that advantage boils down to one McDonald's All-American vs. one McDonald's customer. Here's a side-by-side comparison of Kennedy Meeks and Amile Jefferson (http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/compare?add=kennedy-meeks&p1=amile-jefferson). Other than weight, Amile is superior in almost every statistical category. In rebounding they're about the same. Meeks ranks first in the conference in defensive rebounding percentage (26.1) and Amile ranks second (23.9); while in offensive rebounding percentage, Amile ranks 4th (15.2) in the conference and Meeks ranks fifth (14.2). Looking at the numbers, Meeks may have a very slight advantage, but that's probably ameliorated by the fact that Amile plays almost 30% more minutes (Meeks has averaged fewer than 15 mpg in his last three games). In addition, on offense, Amile is a far superior player statistically.

The rest of UNC's frontcourt is McAdoo and Brice Johnson vs. Jabari and Rodney. McAdoo (6'9, 230) is an inch taller than Jabari (6'8, 235) and 5 pounds lighter. Johnson (6'9, 210) is similarly an inch taller and 5 pounds lighter than Rodney (6'8, 215). So, no real size advantage for UNC and another HUGE talent advantage for Duke, again both by the statistics and the eye test. As a bonus, our 8th man, Marshall Plumlee is 7'0, 260 and can counteract in all ways if UNC decides to play their 8th man, Joel James (6'10, 280).

So, while I suppose it's possible for Paige to dominate Quinn and/or for Meeks to eat Amile up (hopefully not literally), or for some unheralded player like Brice Johnson to have a career day, the overall picture looks pretty good for Duke. That's not to say we'll definitely win -- we've already lost to less talented teams like Clemson and Notre Dame -- but honestly, if their shirts said "Georgia Tech" instead of "North Carolina," I think most of you would be a lot less worried.

Bob Green
02-09-2014, 12:46 PM
...but I expect we'll see Plumlee and Hairston getting opportunity to wrestle with Carolina's big boys. Plumlee is the one guy we've got who can out-size and out-muscle Meeks.

Both coaches influence the match-ups on the court. If I was Roy Williams, and Coach K subbed in Plumlee, I would immediately go small with a line-up of Brice Johnson, McAdoo, Tokoto, McDonald and Paige. Johnson is way too quick for Plumlee to guard.

Kedsy
02-09-2014, 12:51 PM
Both coaches influence the match-ups on the court. If I was Roy Williams, and Coach K subbed in Plumlee, I would immediately go small with a line-up of Brice Johnson, McAdoo, Tokoto, McDonald and Paige. Johnson is way too quick for Plumlee to guard.

That's true, but Marshall could back off into a sort of one-man-zone, because Johnson is little (no?) threat to shoot from outside. At least until the next time out when (as you suggest), Coach K would probably go small on our side.

Troublemaker
02-09-2014, 01:01 PM
Both teams are red hot going in. Duke has covered 7 consecutive point spreads, and UNC has covered 5 consecutive point spreads. Something's got to give.

Unless they push. (Line won't be known until Tuesday evening.)

Troublemaker
02-09-2014, 01:07 PM
Kennedy Meeks does not think much of Marshall Plumlee and Duke's inside players: http://youtu.be/qT3Yc6-wSLQ?t=6m15s

Skip to 2:50 and 6:15 of that video for examples.

Note: this is obviously just a bunch of kids trash-talking and having fun. Please hold no ill will towards Meeks. In fact, he's probably one of the more likable Heels in awhile. BUT, if Amile and MP3 happen to outplay him Wednesday, this video will be fun in hindsight.

freshmanjs
02-09-2014, 01:29 PM
Obviously upsets happen all the time, and UNC has proven they can beat more talented teams like Michigan State, Louisville, and Kentucky. That said, basketball, while not a one-on-one game, is a game of matchups, and I think we match up pretty well with the Tar Heels. They've been consistently playing 7 guys (their 8th guy rarely if ever sees more than 6 minutes), and we've been essentially playing 8, so it's not that hard to compare.

Let's start with the backcourt. Everyone's worried about Paige, but a side-by-side comparison between Paige and Quinn Cook (http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/compare?add=marcus-paige&p1=quinn-cook) shows that, statistically, they're nearly identical players. Paige plays more minutes than Quinn and gets to the line more, so he scores a few more points, but other than that, the numbers are remarkably similar.

The rest of UNC's backcourt is Tokoto, McDonald, and Britt. Duke's corresponding players are Rasheed, Andre, and Tyler. Statistically and eye test, that's a HUGE advantage for Duke.

Now, to the frontcourt, where UNC is supposedly so much bigger than us. Now that Roy plays a shorter rotation, however, that advantage boils down to one McDonald's All-American vs. one McDonald's customer. Here's a side-by-side comparison of Kennedy Meeks and Amile Jefferson (http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/compare?add=kennedy-meeks&p1=amile-jefferson). Other than weight, Amile is superior in almost every statistical category. In rebounding they're about the same. Meeks ranks first in the conference in defensive rebounding percentage (26.1) and Amile ranks second (23.9); while in offensive rebounding percentage, Amile ranks 4th (15.2) in the conference and Meeks ranks fifth (14.2). Looking at the numbers, Meeks may have a very slight advantage, but that's probably ameliorated by the fact that Amile plays almost 30% more minutes (Meeks has averaged fewer than 15 mpg in his last three games). In addition, on offense, Amile is a far superior player statistically.

The rest of UNC's frontcourt is McAdoo and Brice Johnson vs. Jabari and Rodney. McAdoo (6'9, 230) is an inch taller than Jabari (6'8, 235) and 5 pounds lighter. Johnson (6'9, 210) is similarly an inch taller and 5 pounds lighter than Rodney (6'8, 215). So, no real size advantage for UNC and another HUGE talent advantage for Duke, again both by the statistics and the eye test. As a bonus, our 8th man, Marshall Plumlee is 7'0, 260 and can counteract in all ways if UNC decides to play their 8th man, Joel James (6'10, 280).

So, while I suppose it's possible for Paige to dominate Quinn and/or for Meeks to eat Amile up (hopefully not literally), or for some unheralded player like Brice Johnson to have a career day, the overall picture looks pretty good for Duke. That's not to say we'll definitely win -- we've already lost to less talented teams like Clemson and Notre Dame -- but honestly, if their shirts said "Georgia Tech" instead of "North Carolina," I think most of you would be a lot less worried.

if both teams had "Georgia Tech" on their shirts, would you still be more worried about playing #153 kenpom 6-17 BC* than #26 kenpom 16-7 UNC? i actually agree that we are better than UNC and should feel confident going in. But, I can't understand at all why you were preaching worry against BC and are preaching not to worry against a much, much better UNC team.

* I know this rating includes the Duke game just played. I don't have the rating as of just before the game.

MChambers
02-09-2014, 02:15 PM
Now, to the frontcourt, where UNC is supposedly so much bigger than us. Now that Roy plays a shorter rotation, however, that advantage boils down to one McDonald's All-American vs. one McDonald's customer. Here's a side-by-side comparison of Kennedy Meeks and Amile Jefferson (http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/compare?add=kennedy-meeks&p1=amile-jefferson). Other than weight, Amile is superior in almost every statistical category. In rebounding they're about the same. Meeks ranks first in the conference in defensive rebounding percentage (26.1) and Amile ranks second (23.9); while in offensive rebounding percentage, Amile ranks 4th (15.2) in the conference and Meeks ranks fifth (14.2). Looking at the numbers, Meeks may have a very slight advantage, but that's probably ameliorated by the fact that Amile plays almost 30% more minutes (Meeks has averaged fewer than 15 mpg in his last three games). In addition, on offense, Amile is a far superior player statistically.
This is great. You don't need more sporks, but you've earned them.

throatybeard
02-09-2014, 02:51 PM
I just re-counted, and my new count says it will be the 73rd time in the last 76 Duke/UNC games that one or the other (or both) is in the top 10.

The last time neither team has been in the top 10 was in the 2003 ACC Tournament (Duke #12; UNC unranked). This week's game will be the 22nd Duke/UNC game since then.

The second one is the 1997 home game.

What's the third?

Olympic Fan
02-09-2014, 03:50 PM
And of course, this will be the 154th straight meeting in which either Duke or UNC (or both) is ranked.

That streak dates back to Feb. 25, 1955 when unranked Duke beat unranked UNC in Durham 96-74. The oddity is that the next time they met -- in the 1955 Dixie Classic -- both teams were ranked in the top 10. Note: There was one game in 1960 when neither was ranked in the AP poll, but UNC was No. 10 in the coaches poll that week.

To me, this streak is the definitive reason that Duke-UNC is the greatest rivalry in college sports. Can you name another rivalry that has featured a ranked team in every meeting for close to 60 years?

Kedsy
02-09-2014, 04:07 PM
The second one is the 1997 home game.

What's the third?

March 3, 1996; unranked Duke hosting #19 UNC.


if both teams had "Georgia Tech" on their shirts, would you still be more worried about playing #153 kenpom 6-17 BC* than #26 kenpom 16-7 UNC? i actually agree that we are better than UNC and should feel confident going in. But, I can't understand at all why you were preaching worry against BC and are preaching not to worry against a much, much better UNC team.

* I know this rating includes the Duke game just played. I don't have the rating as of just before the game.

I was worried about BC because (a) they've underperformed to their talent and were almost guaranteed to play their best game at home against Duke; (b) their offensive style is very close to the styles that have given us fits; and (c) we're getting better, but Duke is prone to concentration lapses when the players feel it's OK to relax.

Comparing to UNC, (a) unlike BC I think UNC has overperformed a little; (b) despite their big bodies they play an offensive style that Duke plays better defense against; and (c) hard to imagine our guys losing their focus in a Duke/UNC game.

So, call me irrational if you wish, but that's why.

MChambers
02-09-2014, 05:20 PM
Comparing to UNC, (a) unlike BC I think UNC has overperformed a little; (b) despite their big bodies they play an offensive style that Duke plays better defense against; and (c) hard to imagine our guys losing their focus in a Duke/UNC game.

So, call me irrational if you wish, but that's why.
Re the highlighted language, in some ways that's true: BC is quicker and better at dribble penetration, but also more reliant on the 3, which Duke takes away. I take it you think we defend post up offense better than dribble penetration. Am I reading your post correctly?

roywhite
02-09-2014, 06:28 PM
Comparing Duke and UNC; conference game-only stats YTD and ranks within conference:

Scoring margin
2. Duke +13.0
5. UNC +4.1

Free Throw %
1. Duke 76.8%
13. UNC 62.3%

FG%
4. Duke 44.4%
10. UNC 43.2%

3-pt FG %
1. Duke 43.0%
13. UNC 29.2%

FG% Defense
6. UNC 41.7%
14. Duke 46.8%

3-pt FG% Defense
1. UNC 30.5%
11. Duke 37.2%

Rebound Margin
1. UNC +6.2
4. Duke +2.5

Asst/Turnover ratio
1. Duke 1.7
5. UNC 1.3

Made 3-pt FG per game
1. Duke 10.6
13. UNC 4.2

Troublemaker
02-09-2014, 07:05 PM
Comparing Duke and UNC; conference game-only stats YTD and ranks within conference:

3-pt FG% Defense
1. UNC 30.5%
11. Duke 37.2%



This stat might jump out at folks who haven't been tracking these things.

While UNC still allows plenty of 3-pt attempts (ranking 247th in the country at limiting 3-pt attempts), opponents are only making their threes against UNC 30.9% of the time for the season, which is the lowest mark since Roy has been at UNC. This maybe suggests that while UNC will give up the attempt, they are pretty good at closing out on shooters this season, forcing a challenged shot.

Duke, at least in ACC play, has been the opposite. We lead the conference in limiting 3-pt attempts (and are 8th in the country for the season), but when ACC opponents have gotten the shot off, they are hitting them at 37.2% as you note. (For the entire season, though, we are holding opponents to 31.2%, good for 45th in the country. The 37.2% in ACC play strikes me as a little bit fluky, helped by there being a relatively limited amount of attempts.)

Kedsy
02-09-2014, 07:08 PM
Re the highlighted language, in some ways that's true: BC is quicker and better at dribble penetration, but also more reliant on the 3, which Duke takes away. I take it you think we defend post up offense better than dribble penetration. Am I reading your post correctly?

Someone who's watched more Carolina than I have can certainly contradict me, but how much posting up is actually going on in UNC's offense this season? None of their five leading scorers are post-up guys -- McAdoo has always seemed to me to be a face up player, and to my knowledge that's not Johnson's game either. None of their big men pass or handle particularly well. Also, they don't run very many backdoor cuts, right?

They play at a very fast pace, which won't faze us. In fact, I believe we prefer it over very slow pace teams like BC and Vermont. In the halfcourt, they have Paige (two thirds of his points come from three or the foul line) plus some other fairly inefficient backcourt options, plus mostly face up guys in the frontcourt. A lot of one-on-one play where they rely on their athleticism (but not necessarily super-quick and not so much guard-initiated dribble-penetration). We can defend that a lot easier than BC's offense. Do they play a lot of high screen-and-rolls? We might have some trouble with that, but we've been improving in that area so hopefully we'll handle it.

roywhite
02-09-2014, 07:36 PM
Someone who's watched more Carolina than I have can certainly contradict me, but how much posting up is actually going on in UNC's offense this season? None of their five leading scorers are post-up guys -- McAdoo has always seemed to me to be a face up player, and to my knowledge that's not Johnson's game either. None of their big men pass or handle particularly well. Also, they don't run very many backdoor cuts, right?

They play at a very fast pace, which won't faze us. In fact, I believe we prefer it over very slow pace teams like BC and Vermont. In the halfcourt, they have Paige (two thirds of his points come from three or the foul line) plus some other fairly inefficient backcourt options, plus mostly face up guys in the frontcourt. A lot of one-on-one play where they rely on their athleticism (but not necessarily super-quick and not so much guard-initiated dribble-penetration). We can defend that a lot easier than BC's offense. Do they play a lot of high screen-and-rolls? We might have some trouble with that, but we've been improving in that area so hopefully we'll handle it.

The guy that seems to personify this UNC team is J.P. Tokoto:
He is a good run/jump athlete, though not big for his position
He is a good defender, who gets a high number of steals (1.7/game)
He is not a good free throw shooter (actually, really bad at 46.3%) nor a good 3-pt shooter (28.0%)
He manages to get some good looks at the basket, through transition and ball movement, and has a decent 2-pt % (over 49%)

Overall, he can do some things, but is not as talented as we normally see for a UNC regular

gofurman
02-09-2014, 09:24 PM
Both teams are red hot going in. Duke has covered 7 consecutive point spreads, and UNC has covered 5 consecutive point spreads. Something's got to give.

Unless they push. (Line won't be known until Tuesday evening.)


As long as Duke is favored Ill take that push ! This game ALWAYS makes me nervous - and there is reason to back that up... like the infamous Jeff Capel halfcourt shot etc.. the underdogs typically play above themselves in this game.. Think our Austin Rivers game winner - UNC was the far better team. The better team usually wins but the margin is usually less than expected.

I have noticed that per your Vegas reference WHEN and IF Duke is favored we typically win but do not cover. This falls in line with the "underdog plays up to the level of their opponent" mantra. Most any rivalry game (and ESP this one) the underdog stays closer than expected. Our biggest game to date in ACC? Duke at Syracuse - Cuse won but did not cover the spread... Same theory though that is not an 'established rivalry' yet.

Troublemaker
02-09-2014, 09:25 PM
None of their five leading scorers are post-up guys -- McAdoo has always seemed to me to be a face up player, and to my knowledge that's not Johnson's game either.

I would say Brice Johnson has a good postup game. Nice jumphook and turnaround. Incidentally, he's played more minutes than Meeks the past three games. He's very, very athletic and is UNC's best shotblocker among their regulars (although other aspects of defense have kept him from being a 30mpg starter.) I wouldn't be surprised if the UNC post player that hurts us the most inside ends up being the 6'9" 210 Johnson.

-jk
02-09-2014, 09:33 PM
Anyone know if Marshall will be back for this one?

-jk

Troublemaker
02-09-2014, 09:36 PM
While UNC still allows plenty of 3-pt attempts (ranking 247th in the country at limiting 3-pt attempts), opponents are only making their threes against UNC 30.9% of the time for the season, which is the lowest mark since Roy has been at UNC.

However, this UNC team has been by far the worst of all of Roy's teams at preventing opponents from getting to the free throw line. They rank 185th in the country in opposing FT Rate (and 12th among ACC teams in conference play) while most Roy teams in the past have ranked in the top 25 nationally in this category.

So while I expect Duke to shoot 3s just fine in this game, if for some reason we shoot in the low 30s percentage-wise, we hopefully can make up for it by making some aggressive plays that takes us to the FT line. And if we can shoot 3s like normal AND get to the FT line, that would be the ideal.

Troublemaker
02-09-2014, 09:38 PM
Anyone know if Marshall will be back for this one?

-jk

According to the Herald Sun beat reporter Steve Wiseman, yes

Stephen Wiseman ‏@stevewisemanNC Feb 8

Marshall Plumlee strained a tendon in his knee a couple of days ago, Coach K said. Held out today but should be fine for UNC game

Troublemaker
02-09-2014, 09:44 PM
However, this UNC team has been by far the worst of all of Roy's teams at preventing opponents from getting to the free throw line. They rank 185th in the country in opposing FT Rate (and 12th among ACC teams in conference play) while most Roy teams in the past have ranked in the top 25 nationally in this category.

So while I expect Duke to shoot 3s just fine in this game, if for some reason we shoot in the low 30s percentage-wise, we hopefully can make up for it by making some aggressive plays that takes us to the FT line. And if we can shoot 3s like normal AND get to the FT line, that would be the ideal.

ADDITIONALLY, UNC ranks only 145th in the country at defensive rebounding rate. So maybe we can pound the offensive boards a little bit on them as well. They're certainly going to try to do that to us on the other end.

Kedsy
02-09-2014, 10:56 PM
The better team [in the Duke/UNC rivalry] usually wins but the margin is usually less than expected.

I'm not sure how true this is. For every Austin Rivers game there's also an 82-50.

I just perused a betting website that had historical data and in the past five years (2009 to 2013), the favorite in Duke/UNC game has covered 7 times, failed to cover 3 times and pushed once. Of the 3 times, once was because the favorite lost the game. So only twice out of 11 did the favorite win but fail to cover.

Note that the "favorite" in this case is the betting favorite, not necessarily the better rated team.

In the previous five years (2004 to 2008), the favorite only covered twice, four times the favorite won but didn't cover, and four times the favorite lost the game.

So the ten year total is:

favorite covered: 9
favorite won but didn't cover: 6
favorite lost: 5
pushed: 1

I didn't feel like going back any further, but for at least the past 10 years, the favorite won the game 75% of the time (not counting the push) and when they won, they covered 60% of the time, so your statement that they usually won by less than expected doesn't really hold.

That said, overall, over ten years, betting on the favorite was a good idea only 45% of the time (again, not counting the push).

I have no idea how this data looks next to "non-rivalry" games.


I have noticed that per your Vegas reference WHEN and IF Duke is favored we typically win but do not cover.

I'm not sure if I entirely understand what you're saying here, but if I do understand then I don't think this is true, either. So far this season, in games Duke has been favored, we've lost three of them but of those that we've won, we've covered 14 and failed to cover only 4. Last season, in games Duke was favored, we lost three of them but of those we won, we covered 17 and failed to cover 12. I don't want to go back any further than that, but the two year data doesn't seem to support your statement.

gofurman
02-09-2014, 11:03 PM
I'm not sure how true this is. For every Austin Rivers game there's also an 82-50.

I just perused a betting website that had historical data and in the past five years (2009 to 2013), the favorite in Duke/UNC game has covered 7 times, failed to cover 3 times and pushed once. Of the 3 times, once was because the favorite lost the game. So only twice out of 11 did the favorite win but fail to cover.

Note that the "favorite" in this case is the betting favorite, not necessarily the better rated team.

In the previous five years (2004 to 2008), the favorite only covered twice, four times the favorite won but didn't cover, and four times the favorite lost the game.

So the ten year total is:

favorite covered: 9
favorite won but didn't cover: 6
favorite lost: 5
pushed: 1

I didn't feel like going back any further, but for at least the past 10 years, the favorite won the game 75% of the time (not counting the push) and when they won, they covered 60% of the time, so your statement that they usually won by less than expected doesn't really hold.

That said, overall, over ten years, betting on the favorite was a good idea only 45% of the time (again, not counting the push).

I have no idea how this data looks next to "non-rivalry" games.



I'm not sure if I entirely understand what you're saying here, but if I do understand then I don't think this is true, either. So far this season, in games Duke has been favored, we've lost three of them but of those that we've won, we've covered 14 and failed to cover only 4. Last season, in games Duke was favored, we lost three of them but of those we won, we covered 17 and failed to cover 12. I don't want to go back any further than that, but the two year data doesn't seem to support your statement.

GREAT DATA - I stand corrected. Your facts trump my anecdotal memory as I get old... lol. I am glad the discussion at least brought out these facts - so in the last 21 games the vegas fav WON 16 times.. that's a strong coorelation to the public perception of who should win. 16 wins for the favorite and 5 losses by the favorite. OK. Then I hope to see Duke as the favorite !

I wonder how many times a, say, 8+ point favorite in this series won vs, a small favorite of perhaps 5 points or less. Perhaps this is minutia but it is relevant. If you already have the data I would be curious. Would be a little interesting, esp when the line comes out Tuesday. Rarely would I THINK (could be wrong) either team would be more than a 10 pt favorite... 99 Brand year? 2002 or 2003 Doherty teams were probably big udogs...

dukelifer
02-10-2014, 05:38 AM
Looks like a snowstorm will hit the Triangle on Wed. That will have some impact on the game and attendance. Should be interesting.

SirBlueDevil
02-10-2014, 06:52 AM
"On Wednesday, Duke and UNC renew college basketball's best rivalry (sorry, Syracuse, one game, good as it is doesn't qualify and can't touch beating the neighbors senseless). We'll be talking about it between now and then of course" !

Needless to say i'm anxiously awaiting for this game to tip off but in the meantime i'll wet my palate tonight with our lady blue devils hosting the less inferior lady tar heels, should be just about a great a game as the mens in a few days.

Go Duke Blue!

dyedwab
02-10-2014, 08:08 AM
Looks like a snowstorm will hit the Triangle on Wed. That will have some impact on the game and attendance. Should be interesting.

Huh, so the open question is whether Wednesday's game provides a snowball's chance in Hell?

UrinalCake
02-10-2014, 12:54 PM
On IC they are hoping that the snowstorm prevents ticket holders from coming, and those seats will be made available to students. It happened many years ago. Note that:

- I use the term "snow storm" very loosely, they're predicting 2-3"
- the arena is not right on campus, so students would still have to drive there. Since none if the locals have any clue how to drive in any kind of winter weather, I'm not seeing an arena loaded with students

94duke
02-10-2014, 12:59 PM
On IC they are hoping that the snowstorm prevents ticket holders from coming, and those seats will be made available to students. It happened many years ago. Note that:

- I use the term "snow storm" very loosely, they're predicting 2-3"
- the arena is not right on campus, so students would still have to drive there. Since none if the locals have any clue how to drive in any kind of winter weather, I'm not seeing an arena loaded with students

True (accumulation), but it is already snowing, now. A wintry mix is predicted through Thursday. Unfortunately, Wednesday looks like ice is a possibility. Let's hope that the ice stays away, for the benefit of everyone.

http://www.wral.com/weather/

Duvall
02-10-2014, 01:01 PM
On IC they are hoping that the snowstorm prevents ticket holders from coming, and those seats will be made available to students. It happened many years ago. Note that:

- I use the term "snow storm" very loosely, they're predicting 2-3"
- the arena is not right on campus, so students would still have to drive there. Since none if the locals have any clue how to drive in any kind of winter weather, I'm not seeing an arena loaded with students

Hm? The SAC is on the edge of campus, but still on campus. Students can walk there.

Still, it's a sad sign when your best chance for having a homecourt advantage is for your fans to be blocked from attending.

NYBri
02-10-2014, 01:31 PM
Huh, so the open question is whether Wednesday's game provides a snowball's chance in Hell?

Nicely played.

Neals384
02-10-2014, 01:54 PM
Comparing Duke and UNC; conference game-only stats YTD and ranks within conference:

Scoring margin
2. Duke +13.0
5. UNC +4.1

Free Throw %
1. Duke 76.8%
13. UNC 62.3%

FG%
4. Duke 44.4%
10. UNC 43.2%

3-pt FG %
1. Duke 43.0%
13. UNC 29.2%

FG% Defense
6. UNC 41.7%
14. Duke 46.8%

3-pt FG% Defense
1. UNC 30.5%
11. Duke 37.2%

Rebound Margin
1. UNC +6.2
4. Duke +2.5

Asst/Turnover ratio
1. Duke 1.7
5. UNC 1.3

Made 3-pt FG per game
1. Duke 10.6
13. UNC 4.2

Only reason Heels are #1 in 3 Pt D is they have yet to play Duke!

superdave
02-10-2014, 02:04 PM
McAdoo is having a very similar season to last. 15.0 points on .476 from the field. He does get to the line a lot - 8.3 FTA per game - but is only hitting .534. By comparison, Jabari is shooting 5.8 FTs per game.

Here's his scoring in their losses - 27 (Belmont), 6, 11, 13, 12, 15, 11. So he only really carried them in one loss.

Here's his scoring in their big wins - 9 (Lou), 8 (Sparty), 20 (UK).

However, if you subscribe to the theory that only his most recent 5-6 games count most (and Unc's won five in a row), he's scored 22,17,16,12,18 over those wins for an average of 17 per.

Has anyone watched Unc enough this season to say how McAdoo is getting to the line so much?

Saratoga2
02-10-2014, 02:17 PM
Obviously upsets happen all the time, and UNC has proven they can beat more talented teams like Michigan State, Louisville, and Kentucky. That said, basketball, while not a one-on-one game, is a game of matchups, and I think we match up pretty well with the Tar Heels. They've been consistently playing 7 guys (their 8th guy rarely if ever sees more than 6 minutes), and we've been essentially playing 8, so it's not that hard to compare.

Let's start with the backcourt. Everyone's worried about Paige, but a side-by-side comparison between Paige and Quinn Cook (http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/compare?add=marcus-paige&p1=quinn-cook) shows that, statistically, they're nearly identical players. Paige plays more minutes than Quinn and gets to the line more, so he scores a few more points, but other than that, the numbers are remarkably similar.

The rest of UNC's backcourt is Tokoto, McDonald, and Britt. Duke's corresponding players are Rasheed, Andre, and Tyler. Statistically and eye test, that's a HUGE advantage for Duke.

Now, to the frontcourt, where UNC is supposedly so much bigger than us. Now that Roy plays a shorter rotation, however, that advantage boils down to one McDonald's All-American vs. one McDonald's customer. Here's a side-by-side comparison of Kennedy Meeks and Amile Jefferson (http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/compare?add=kennedy-meeks&p1=amile-jefferson). Other than weight, Amile is superior in almost every statistical category. In rebounding they're about the same. Meeks ranks first in the conference in defensive rebounding percentage (26.1) and Amile ranks second (23.9); while in offensive rebounding percentage, Amile ranks 4th (15.2) in the conference and Meeks ranks fifth (14.2). Looking at the numbers, Meeks may have a very slight advantage, but that's probably ameliorated by the fact that Amile plays almost 30% more minutes (Meeks has averaged fewer than 15 mpg in his last three games). In addition, on offense, Amile is a far superior player statistically.

The rest of UNC's frontcourt is McAdoo and Brice Johnson vs. Jabari and Rodney. McAdoo (6'9, 230) is an inch taller than Jabari (6'8, 235) and 5 pounds lighter. Johnson (6'9, 210) is similarly an inch taller and 5 pounds lighter than Rodney (6'8, 215). So, no real size advantage for UNC and another HUGE talent advantage for Duke, again both by the statistics and the eye test. As a bonus, our 8th man, Marshall Plumlee is 7'0, 260 and can counteract in all ways if UNC decides to play their 8th man, Joel James (6'10, 280).

So, while I suppose it's possible for Paige to dominate Quinn and/or for Meeks to eat Amile up (hopefully not literally), or for some unheralded player like Brice Johnson to have a career day, the overall picture looks pretty good for Duke. That's not to say we'll definitely win -- we've already lost to less talented teams like Clemson and Notre Dame -- but honestly, if their shirts said "Georgia Tech" instead of "North Carolina," I think most of you would be a lot less worried.

I agree with your view of matchups being what will determine the outcome and also agree that we have the advantage at most positions. We also have more depth, particularly at guard positions. Having Marshall present would be a plus for Duke since he can probably keep Meeks from causing foul problems for Amile or Jabari inside. Semi may also be of use in this game.

In my view, it will be coach K's substitution pattern which will be key to getting a win here. I think he needs to use Dukes depth to keep pressure on UNC while avoiding foul trouble on our bigs.

Matches
02-10-2014, 02:22 PM
Has anyone watched Unc enough this season to say how McAdoo is getting to the line so much?

He's big and very aggressive with the ball. He creates a lot of contact near the basket. And he's a very high-usage player, so he gets a lot of touches in the post.

He is also a truly awful FT shooter. The percentages don't really illustrate how bad he is. We're not talking about near-misses - he's maybe a shade better than Chris Burgess.

The danger is just that, even if he's missing his FTs, if he's getting to the line it causes foul trouble for Jabari and/or Amile.

superdave
02-10-2014, 02:22 PM
Comparing Duke and UNC; conference game-only stats YTD and ranks within conference:

Free Throw %
1. Duke 76.8%
13. UNC 62.3%

3-pt FG %
1. Duke 43.0%
13. UNC 29.2%

Made 3-pt FG per game
1. Duke 10.6
13. UNC 4.2


This is interesting because Paige and McAdoo skew their stats a lot.

Paige is 51 of 139 on the season from 3. That's .367. The rest of the team is a combined 37 of 137, or .270. It gets worse for the rest of the guys if you subtract McDonald who is 25 of 81 (.308). The rump of the team is a combined 12 of 56 (.214). They should probably just go bowling instead.

From the FT stripe, McAdoo has attempted 191 of the team's 627 FT attempts (30%). The rest of the team is shooting .662 which borders respectability (Mason shot .681 last year).

These guys are not going to beat us unless we lose our minds and give up cheap rebounds and start fouling a lot. We need to control the tempo and limit Unc's run-outs. If we can force them to execute in the half-court, they are going to revert to bad habits.

Matches
02-10-2014, 02:26 PM
Hm? The SAC is on the edge of campus, but still on campus. Students can walk there.

Still, it's a sad sign when your best chance for having a homecourt advantage is for your fans to be blocked from attending.

Agreed on both counts. I've walked across that campus in FAR worse weather than we're going to get in the next few days. Students can and will walk there.

superdave
02-10-2014, 02:40 PM
Agreed on both counts. I've walked across that campus in FAR worse weather than we're going to get in the next few days. Students can and will walk there.

Yeah, but the Rams Clubbers will have to attach some sleeves to their sweater vests if they are going to survive the conditions. They can figure that part out if they start now.

My guess is only the really ancient fans will miss this one because of the weather. Duke game in the midst of a 5-game win streak? After previously beating Lou/UK/MSU? The season ticket holders will pack the place out.

davekay1971
02-10-2014, 02:43 PM
Yeah, but the Rams Clubbers will have to attach some sleeves to their sweater vests if they are going to survive the conditions. They can figure that part out if they start now.

My guess is only the really ancient fans will miss this one because of the weather. Duke game in the midst of a 5-game win streak? After previously beating Lou/UK/MSU? The season ticket holders will pack the place out.

Figure it out? Done and done. Didn't you know that Alexander Julian Carolina Blue sweater vests come with velcro attachable sleeves. For bad weather in the Memorial Butch Davis Blue Section of the Kenan Stadium.

superdave
02-10-2014, 02:55 PM
I found some usage rate stats on Espn. Here's the UNC guys -
Paige 19.4
McAdoo 21.1
Brice 20.2
Meeks 18.9
Tokoto 16.3

I am surprised Paige is not significantly higher.

flyingdutchdevil
02-10-2014, 03:02 PM
I found some usage rate stats on Espn. Here's the UNC guys -
Paige 19.4
McAdoo 21.1
Brice 20.2
Meeks 18.9
Tokoto 16.3

I am surprised Paige is not significantly higher.

Given that Paige plays 35.7 mins a game, this isn't that surprising. Brice plays have the number of minutes but has 1/3 less shots than Paige.

I'm gonna say it - I really like Paige. I think he's a really good player, good team player, and one of two / three bright spots for UNC. I'm also looking forward to Sulaimon / Thornton / Cook absolutely shutting him down.

BD80
02-10-2014, 03:32 PM
... He is also a truly awful FT shooter. ... - he's maybe a shade better than Chris Burgess. ...

Little known fact: Chris' most accurate technique from the free throw line was an underhand delivery - while facing the opposite basket.

Monmouth77
02-10-2014, 03:34 PM
Obviously upsets happen all the time, and UNC has proven they can beat more talented teams like Michigan State, Louisville, and Kentucky. That said, basketball, while not a one-on-one game, is a game of matchups, and I think we match up pretty well with the Tar Heels. They've been consistently playing 7 guys (their 8th guy rarely if ever sees more than 6 minutes), and we've been essentially playing 8, so it's not that hard to compare.

Let's start with the backcourt. Everyone's worried about Paige, but a side-by-side comparison between Paige and Quinn Cook (http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/compare?add=marcus-paige&p1=quinn-cook) shows that, statistically, they're nearly identical players. Paige plays more minutes than Quinn and gets to the line more, so he scores a few more points, but other than that, the numbers are remarkably similar.

The rest of UNC's backcourt is Tokoto, McDonald, and Britt. Duke's corresponding players are Rasheed, Andre, and Tyler. Statistically and eye test, that's a HUGE advantage for Duke.

Now, to the frontcourt, where UNC is supposedly so much bigger than us. Now that Roy plays a shorter rotation, however, that advantage boils down to one McDonald's All-American vs. one McDonald's customer. Here's a side-by-side comparison of Kennedy Meeks and Amile Jefferson (http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/compare?add=kennedy-meeks&p1=amile-jefferson). Other than weight, Amile is superior in almost every statistical category. In rebounding they're about the same. Meeks ranks first in the conference in defensive rebounding percentage (26.1) and Amile ranks second (23.9); while in offensive rebounding percentage, Amile ranks 4th (15.2) in the conference and Meeks ranks fifth (14.2). Looking at the numbers, Meeks may have a very slight advantage, but that's probably ameliorated by the fact that Amile plays almost 30% more minutes (Meeks has averaged fewer than 15 mpg in his last three games). In addition, on offense, Amile is a far superior player statistically.

The rest of UNC's frontcourt is McAdoo and Brice Johnson vs. Jabari and Rodney. McAdoo (6'9, 230) is an inch taller than Jabari (6'8, 235) and 5 pounds lighter. Johnson (6'9, 210) is similarly an inch taller and 5 pounds lighter than Rodney (6'8, 215). So, no real size advantage for UNC and another HUGE talent advantage for Duke, again both by the statistics and the eye test. As a bonus, our 8th man, Marshall Plumlee is 7'0, 260 and can counteract in all ways if UNC decides to play their 8th man, Joel James (6'10, 280).

So, while I suppose it's possible for Paige to dominate Quinn and/or for Meeks to eat Amile up (hopefully not literally), or for some unheralded player like Brice Johnson to have a career day, the overall picture looks pretty good for Duke. That's not to say we'll definitely win -- we've already lost to less talented teams like Clemson and Notre Dame -- but honestly, if their shirts said "Georgia Tech" instead of "North Carolina," I think most of you would be a lot less worried.

Looking at the matchups, it seems to me that our biggest potential advantage could be on the wing with Hood (6'8) matched up against Tokoto (6'5) or McDonald (6'5). He's been quiet offensively the last few games, so maybe he's due for an outburst. If Sulaimon keeps putting as much pressure on the defense off the drive as he has the last two games, Hood could see lots of open threes.

roywhite
02-10-2014, 04:27 PM
He's big and very aggressive with the ball. He creates a lot of contact near the basket. And he's a very high-usage player, so he gets a lot of touches in the post.

He is also a truly awful FT shooter. The percentages don't really illustrate how bad he is. We're not talking about near-misses - he's maybe a shade better than Chris Burgess.

The danger is just that, even if he's missing his FTs, if he's getting to the line it causes foul trouble for Jabari and/or Amile.

Here we touch again on my biggest worry, McAdoo getting Jabari into foul trouble. Not only is James Mackeral willing to flop as the Chi-Town manchild Jabari comes toward him, but McAdoo will employ the strategy that Hansbrough used so well in UNC home games, jumping into defenders and getting favorable calls. I'd hate to see the zebras play a big role here, but it could happen.

As a bit of counter-balance, if the action gets too frenetic, I think it will ultimately favor Duke as UNC could wear down and the Devils have an edge in depth.

oldnavy
02-10-2014, 04:37 PM
Looking at the matchups, it seems to me that our biggest potential advantage could be on the wing with Hood (6'8) matched up against Tokoto (6'5) or McDonald (6'5). He's been quiet offensively the last few games, so maybe he's due for an outburst. If Sulaimon keeps putting as much pressure on the defense off the drive as he has the last two games, Hood could see lots of open threes.

UNC is notorious for collapsing on drivers in the lane... hopefully we can exploit this to our advantage.

Bob Green
02-10-2014, 04:42 PM
Someone who's watched more Carolina than I have can certainly contradict me, but how much posting up is actually going on in UNC's offense this season?

Also, they don't run very many backdoor cuts, right?

I've watched a bit of Carolina this year (actually I've watched a lot, but I don't desire to open myself up to ridicule so my official position is I've watched a bit) and agree with you they do not do a lot of posting up or backdoor cuts. The inside guy who worries me is Meeks. If he is on his game, he has the size and skill to be a significant match-up problem.


ADDITIONALLY, UNC ranks only 145th in the country at defensive rebounding rate. So maybe we can pound the offensive boards a little bit on them as well.

One thing I've consistently observed with Carolina this season is them playing very good defense for an entire possession only to give up second chance points due to poor defensive rebounding. We need to focus on pounding the offensive glass.

The keys to me are:

1. Neutralize Paige - Carolina goes as Paige goes
2. Pound the glass
3. Shoot > 40% on 3 PT FGs

DukeWarhead
02-10-2014, 04:57 PM
Looking at the matchups, it seems to me that our biggest potential advantage could be on the wing with Hood (6'8) matched up against Tokoto (6'5) or McDonald (6'5). He's been quiet offensively the last few games, so maybe he's due for an outburst. If Sulaimon keeps putting as much pressure on the defense off the drive as he has the last two games, Hood could see lots of open threes.

Agreed. Of course we'll need solid games from everyone, but I'm really hoping for a Hood offensive explosion, the kind that suddenly sees our other players freed up for big plays as the second half wears on. I'm hoping he's due for 20+.

Troublemaker
02-10-2014, 04:59 PM
Further confirmation from Coach K today that MP3 will be available for UNC:

Stephen Wiseman ‏@stevewisemanNC 1h

Coach K started his press conference today saying that Marshall Plumlee's strained knee has healed and he is available to play again

Mike Corey
02-10-2014, 05:25 PM
I think UNC will throw everything they've got at trying to make anyone but Jabari Parker beat'em.

I think we'll be ready to oblige them.

Duke 123
UNC 49

Troublemaker
02-10-2014, 05:33 PM
He's big and very aggressive with the ball. He creates a lot of contact near the basket. And he's a very high-usage player, so he gets a lot of touches in the post.

The danger is just that, even if he's missing his FTs, if he's getting to the line it causes foul trouble for Jabari and/or Amile.


Here we touch again on my biggest worry, McAdoo getting Jabari into foul trouble. Not only is James Mackeral willing to flop as the Chi-Town manchild Jabari comes toward him, but McAdoo will employ the strategy that Hansbrough used so well in UNC home games, jumping into defenders and getting favorable calls.

I want to echo these thoughts, as it's my biggest concern about this game as well. McAdoo has been very good at facing up and using his quickness to drive into opposing big men to draw fouls. If he can get Jabari or Amile into foul trouble, it's a bit of a gamechanger.

Troublemaker
02-10-2014, 06:16 PM
Other concerns of mine besides McAdoo's foul-drawing ability:

Will any of the young players play differently just because it's UNC? For example, we don't need Jabari or Rodney to force things just because it's their first UNC game. Stay patient and calm. Run the motion. Move the ball, and get the open looks. Our players definitely executed great against Syracuse, but Syracuse is not our rival.
Not forcing things on offense is especially important because I don't think we'll fare well in transition D. It's not one of our strengths to begin with, and transition offense is one of the few things UNC does well on offense with freak athletes like Tokoto and McAdoo running the floor.
Speaking of Tokoto and McAdoo, they are very good defenders who happen to match up with our two best players, Rodney and Jabari. It will be interesting to see what happens there. If our top two guys are slowed, can our other players step up? (The answer should be yes with all the weapons on this team.)
Defensive rebounding. UNC is 17th in the nation in offensive rebounding rate.
Brice Johnson's post scoring. Meeks' post scoring.


To be clear, I am supremely confident about Duke's chances in this game. But, should UNC find a way to win, I figure some combination of the above will be factors.

Indoor66
02-10-2014, 06:51 PM
I think UNC will throw everything they've got at trying to make anyone but Jabari Parker beat'em.

I think we'll be ready to oblige them.

Duke 123
UNC 49

Do you really think it will be that close?

Kedsy
02-10-2014, 07:19 PM
From the FT stripe, McAdoo has attempted 191 of the team's 627 FT attempts (30%). The rest of the team is shooting .662 which borders respectability (Mason shot .681 last year).

Wait, you take away their worst and most prolific free throw shooter and the rest of the team shoots FTs worse than Mason Plumlee?

Wow. I think respectability is quite a ways off.

Kfanarmy
02-10-2014, 08:23 PM
If I were going to do a pregame analysis using stats, I'd probably stick to the last five games or so...

Wheat/"/"/"
02-10-2014, 08:43 PM
I think we will absolutely see UNC go at Parker to see if he gets in foul trouble.

Here's a few of my thoughts on what UNC will have to do to win this game.

First, make a fair % of their foul shots,(that's a big challenge for this team), and limit the turnovers.

Second, maintain some composure. This is a team that loses focus at times. They'll need to block out and Paige/McAdoo have to show some leadership when Duke makes a run and settle the rest of them down. Guard the outside shot, take their chances with the size advantage inside, keep the game close, and don't let a 3pt barrage shake their confidence and lose contact or Duke could blow them out.

Third, attack inside and especially make Parker guard. Finish the darn shot, they've struggled with that too. It's very possible that the fouls could add up on Parker, or Parker would play soft to protect himself. This game is gonna challenge him. Spacing will be key for UNC to get the lanes open for McAdoo to attack Parker, assuming Parker guards him. JMM's first step to the basket is very difficult to stop, he gets the angles and is strong enough to get to the rim. And he gets fouled, a lot. Tokoto can attack the rim too. Jabari is also going to have to watch the Meeks pump fakes and not get caught off his feet. So, Parker's gonna have to spend a substantial amount of time in the paint, where it's easy to get called for fouls, and Jefferson can't do it alone. Plumlee has improved, and his minutes will be important too.

I like how the Heels match up with Duke, but I'm concerned with UNC's maturity. McAdoo is gonna be a tough guard, and JMM is a good choice to guard Parker. Tokoto is a solid defender for Hood. The trio of Meeks, Johnson and James is a good matchup for Jefferson, Plumlee and Hairston, and I like Paige over Cook. Rasheed gets an edge on McDonald, which brings me to Nate Britt.

I think he is the wildcard for a UNC upset. The kid is quick and can penetrate. He also defends with quick hands, and he could cause Sulaimon problems that McDonald can't. He also has a good handle with the ball. He still makes some freshman decisions, and he's not a deep threat, but he can get to the rim and I think that is gonna be Roy's game plan. He can also loosen it up for Paige to get his outside looks, when McDonald can't.
Can he handle the defensive pressure? That's what I'll be watching out for.

K might back off the man pressure and give up the outside looks since UNC shoots so poorly, but I doubt it. It's not his nature. But if he does, McDonald will have to step up and shoot it.

Duke is a clear favorite in this one but I won't be at all surprised if UNC can pull this one off. It will come down to will Duke shoot lights out or just average?

phaedrus
02-10-2014, 08:52 PM
I think UNC will throw everything they've got at trying to make anyone but Jabari Parker beat'em.

I think we'll be ready to oblige them.

Duke 123
UNC 49


Do you really think it will be that close?

183-50.

devildeac
02-10-2014, 09:20 PM
McAdoo is having a very similar season to last. 15.0 points on .476 from the field. He does get to the line a lot - 8.3 FTA per game - but is only hitting .534. By comparison, Jabari is shooting 5.8 FTs per game.

Here's his scoring in their losses - 27 (Belmont), 6, 11, 13, 12, 15, 11. So he only really carried them in one loss.

Here's his scoring in their big wins - 9 (Lou), 8 (Sparty), 20 (UK).

However, if you subscribe to the theory that only his most recent 5-6 games count most (and Unc's won five in a row), he's scored 22,17,16,12,18 over those wins for an average of 17 per.

Has anyone watched Unc enough this season to say how McAdoo is getting to the line so much?

Hansboro effect.

devildeac
02-10-2014, 09:24 PM
I think UNC will throw everything they've got at trying to make anyone but Jabari Parker beat'em.

I think we'll be ready to oblige them.

Duke 123
UNC 49

I'll take the cheaters and 75 points;).

Let's say a Great Lakes Blackout Stout or Lake Erie Monster:)?

devildeac
02-10-2014, 09:26 PM
183-50.

Oh, baby, that's even better than Mr. Corey's bet. I'll take that one, too. ;):)

ice-9
02-10-2014, 09:38 PM
Duke is a clear favorite in this one but I won't be at all surprised if UNC can pull this one off. It will come down to will Duke shoot lights out or just average?

Assuming we play average everywhere else, if we shoot lights out we'd destroy UNC. If we shot "just average" (or 41% on threes) we'd still win. You need us to have a bad shooting night.

(Maybe I shouldn't write too confidently :p)

OldPhiKap
02-10-2014, 09:51 PM
This will be a brutal battle, we will have to play very well to take a win home.

Carolina is very good and matches very well against us.

I hope those who are calling for a Duke blowout are right, but I don't see it. By a long shot.

gofurman
02-10-2014, 10:10 PM
Obviously upsets happen all the time, and UNC has proven they can beat more talented teams like Michigan State, Louisville, and Kentucky. That said, basketball, while not a one-on-one game, is a game of matchups, and I think we match up pretty well with the Tar Heels. They've been consistently playing 7 guys (their 8th guy rarely if ever sees more than 6 minutes), and we've been essentially playing 8, so it's not that hard to compare.

Let's start with the backcourt. Everyone's worried about Paige, but a side-by-side comparison between Paige and Quinn Cook (http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/compare?add=marcus-paige&p1=quinn-cook) shows that, statistically, they're nearly identical players. Paige plays more minutes than Quinn and gets to the line more, so he scores a few more points, but other than that, the numbers are remarkably similar.

The rest of UNC's backcourt is Tokoto, McDonald, and Britt. Duke's corresponding players are Rasheed, Andre, and Tyler. Statistically and eye test, that's a HUGE advantage for Duke.

Now, to the frontcourt, where UNC is supposedly so much bigger than us. Now that Roy plays a shorter rotation, however, that advantage boils down to one McDonald's All-American vs. one McDonald's customer. Here's a side-by-side comparison of Kennedy Meeks and Amile Jefferson (http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/compare?add=kennedy-meeks&p1=amile-jefferson). Other than weight, Amile is superior in almost every statistical category. In rebounding they're about the same. Meeks ranks first in the conference in defensive rebounding percentage (26.1) and Amile ranks second (23.9); while in offensive rebounding percentage, Amile ranks 4th (15.2) in the conference and Meeks ranks fifth (14.2). Looking at the numbers, Meeks may have a very slight advantage, but that's probably ameliorated by the fact that Amile plays almost 30% more minutes (Meeks has averaged fewer than 15 mpg in his last three games). In addition, on offense, Amile is a far superior player statistically.

The rest of UNC's frontcourt is McAdoo and Brice Johnson vs. Jabari and Rodney. McAdoo (6'9, 230) is an inch taller than Jabari (6'8, 235) and 5 pounds lighter. Johnson (6'9, 210) is similarly an inch taller and 5 pounds lighter than Rodney (6'8, 215). So, no real size advantage for UNC and another HUGE talent advantage for Duke, again both by the statistics and the eye test. As a bonus, our 8th man, Marshall Plumlee is 7'0, 260 and can counteract in all ways if UNC decides to play their 8th man, Joel James (6'10, 280).

So, while I suppose it's possible for Paige to dominate Quinn and/or for Meeks to eat Amile up (hopefully not literally), or for some unheralded player like Brice Johnson to have a career day, the overall picture looks pretty good for Duke. That's not to say we'll definitely win -- we've already lost to less talented teams like Clemson and Notre Dame -- but honestly, if their shirts said "Georgia Tech" instead of "North Carolina," I think most of you would be a lot less worried.

Sure I would be worried less if their shirts said GTECH - for one, GTECH doesn't get up emotionally as much as UNC for this game.. for another, GTECH is 140 and 125 in RPI and BPI... UNC is deservedly (based on recent play) 37th and 36th in the same polls. UNC is MUCH MUCH better than they were early in the year and they are far better than GTECH - I get your point but honestly UNC is probably playing top 4 ball in the ACC right now... I would say - based on current level of play - Its these 4 : Syracuse, duke, unc and uva in no particular order... Pitt seems to be falling off a little

I guess I look at how a team is playing now. And UNC is 6-1 in their last 7 games with the only loss being AT uva. They haven't lost a home game in over a month - January 8 to be exact. Also, that Texas loss (3 points) isn't looking so bad now. TTexas is a v good team it turns out. The UAB losses seem to be behind them. Look, I guess I take the "anti-woofing" approach but in all honesty I will be surprised if the Vegas line favors Duke by more than 8. And what's 8 points? 3 or 4 shots that roll in or out? Maybe I am wrong - maybe the perception is different but Ill say the line opens at 7 points or less for Duke...

Mike Corey
02-10-2014, 10:20 PM
This will be a brutal battle, we will have to play very well to take a win home.

Carolina is very good and matches very well against us.

I hope those who are calling for a Duke blowout are right, but I don't see it. By a long shot.

In all seriousness, I think you are correct.

This will be a slobberknocker.

UNC's better players will show up in this one. Their fans will set down the Barefoot wine for a few quarters and, reminiscent of their time at the retirement home, when the voice over the loudspeaker instructs them to cheer, they will put their teeth in and give a holler or two.

In the end, if we can keep Paige out of the lane; if we can get on the offensive glass; if we can get to the free throw line; and if we can dictate the pace--I think Duke pulls this one out without the theatrics of two seasons ago.

Dukehky
02-10-2014, 10:49 PM
Kennedy Meeks talked a lot of trash about Marshall during the McD's AA week last year. Made me really dislike him. Talking trash about another college player before you ever even get to college? Punk move. Here's to hoping Marshall shuts him up... hard.

That goes for the rest of those bums, let's put them in the dirt.

ICP
02-10-2014, 10:53 PM
A couple of points. First, strange as it may seem, I believe the hype for the Duke @ Syracuse game was much higher, and Syracuse was clearly a better team than Carolina playing in front of a very loud and passionate fan base, so if our young kids handled that so well I don't worry at all about them being too nervous to perform well at Carolina. No offense, but I don't think UNC scares/intimidates anyone this year. And while the rivalry means a lot for us fans, for kids like Jabari and Rodney that in all honesty probably did not grow up rooting for Duke and obsessing about beating UNC, it's probably a game like any other game against a good enough team.
And second, I actually think that it would be quite a bummer to lose this game for our seeding and morale;UNC received exactly one vote today in the AP, less than, say, George Washington, so I think this could hurt us significantly in our quest for a high seed. And second, we are on a roll and playing our best bball of the year now. The loss at Syracuse didn't change our positive momentum, but a loss now could really hurt our development and get us off track I fear. All in all, GTHC!

davekay1971
02-10-2014, 10:57 PM
Going to take this position by position.

Center: Amile has the advantage on Brice Johnson in every way. He's bigger, stronger, a better rebounder, a solid finisher, and he can defend Johnson nicely. If UNCheat puts in Meeks, Amile will have trouble keeping up with Meeks' strength, but we can counter with Marshall (that said, AJ is a better finisher, quicker, and just as good of a rebounder). I imagine the coaches may end up with those two different pairs, but I'll take Duke clearly in the AJ vs. Brice pair, and call Marshall vs Meeks a slight UNC advantage.

PF: a great talent matchup between Jabari and JMM. Jabari is better in two aspects of the game - a better rebounder, and a much more complete and varied offensive game. Neither is a particularly good defender...but Jabari has a much better chance of limiting JMM than vice versa.

SF: Duke offers Hood with Dawkins as a sub, and UNCheat offers, um, yeah, not sure. Hood is one of our best defenders, Dawkins isn't bad, and both can drop 20 on any given night.

Backcourt: Duke offers such a weird mix of combo guards, I have trouble breaking this down into SG and PG. Bottom line: Paige is good...Sulaimon is better, in every aspect of the game. McDonald is serviceable, Cook/Thornton/Dawkins can light you up from 3.

I'm not disrespecting UNC, because they're a good team and playing well. But Duke is better at every position, and deeper. This is simply a matter that if we come in and play well we'll win, even if UNC is playing well. If we come in unfocused on defense, or are just off shooting, we could lose. If we come in focused on D, and we have at least a couple guys hitting from 3, we should win.

gofurman
02-10-2014, 11:29 PM
I think we will absolutely see UNC go at Parker to see if he gets in foul trouble.

Here's a few of my thoughts on what UNC will have to do to win this game.

First, make a fair % of their foul shots,(that's a big challenge for this team), and limit the turnovers.

Second, maintain some composure. This is a team that loses focus at times. They'll need to block out and Paige/McAdoo have to show some leadership when Duke makes a run and settle the rest of them down. Guard the outside shot, take their chances with the size advantage inside, keep the game close, and don't let a 3pt barrage shake their confidence and lose contact or Duke could blow them out.

Third, attack inside and especially make Parker guard. Finish the darn shot, they've struggled with that too. It's very possible that the fouls could add up on Parker, or Parker would play soft to protect himself. This game is gonna challenge him. Spacing will be key for UNC to get the lanes open for McAdoo to attack Parker, assuming Parker guards him. JMM's first step to the basket is very difficult to stop, he gets the angles and is strong enough to get to the rim. And he gets fouled, a lot. Tokoto can attack the rim too. Jabari is also going to have to watch the Meeks pump fakes and not get caught off his feet. So, Parker's gonna have to spend a substantial amount of time in the paint, where it's easy to get called for fouls, and Jefferson can't do it alone. Plumlee has improved, and his minutes will be important too.

I like how the Heels match up with Duke, ... McAdoo is gonna be a tough guard, and JMM is a good choice to guard Parker. Tokoto is a solid defender for Hood. The trio of Meeks, Johnson and James is a good matchup for Jefferson, Plumlee and Hairston, and I like Paige over Cook. Rasheed gets an edge on McDonald, which brings me to Nate Britt.

I think he is the wildcard for a UNC upset. The kid is quick and can penetrate. He also defends with quick hands, and he could cause Sulaimon problems that McDonald can't. He also has a good handle with the ball. He still makes some freshman decisions, and he's not a deep threat, but he can get to the rim and I think that is gonna be Roy's game plan. He can also loosen it up for Paige to get his outside looks, when McDonald can't.
Can he handle the defensive pressure? That's what I'll be watching out for.

K might back off the man pressure and give up the outside looks since UNC shoots so poorly, but I doubt it. It's not his nature. But if he does, McDonald will have to step up and shoot it.

Duke is a clear favorite in this one but I won't be at all surprised if UNC can pull this one off. It will come down to will Duke shoot lights out or just average?

Wheat - per the bold statement above. If UNC has Duke 'outmatched' at each position - and I am not saying you don't - then why do you say Duke is the favorite???

brevity
02-10-2014, 11:39 PM
Kennedy Meeks talked a lot of trash...

Garbage in, garbage out?

3891

Skitzle
02-10-2014, 11:43 PM
This matchup scares me for two reasons

1) I'm way too confidant that we will win. UNC's early season struggles still has me not believing they're actually any good.
2)This game doesn't have the hype or excitement of other Duke - UNC games for me, because of how big I perceive the gap between both teams.

When you're this confidant it's unhealthy so now I'm scared we might lose.

Kedsy
02-10-2014, 11:47 PM
...which brings me to Nate Britt.

I think he is the wildcard for a UNC upset. The kid is quick and can penetrate. He also defends with quick hands, and he could cause Sulaimon problems that McDonald can't. He also has a good handle with the ball. He still makes some freshman decisions, and he's not a deep threat, but he can get to the rim and I think that is gonna be Roy's game plan. He can also loosen it up for Paige to get his outside looks, when McDonald can't.
Can he handle the defensive pressure? That's what I'll be watching out for.

You may be right that Britt is the wild card, but among ACC players who average at least 20 mpg, Britt owns the third-worst offensive rating in the conference. Worst is Chris Bolden of Georgia Tech, with 82.0, then comes Joey van Zegeren of Virginia Tech, at 86.6, and then Britt, at 86.7. Britt's eFG% is a paltry 38.8%. His assist/TO ratio is 1.3/1. He hasn't shown he can play offense at this level.

By contrast, among Duke players who have played more than 5 minutes for the season, our worst oRating is Matt Jones at 100.7. Our worst oRating among our top 7 rotation players is Jabari Parker's 113.5.

I hope Britt plays a lot. I hope he gets a lot of touches and shoots whenever he can. If Nate Britt is an integral part of this game, that means Duke has a really, really good chance to win.

DukeAlumBS
02-11-2014, 03:18 AM
You may be right that Britt is the wild card, but among ACC players who average at least 20 mpg, Britt owns the third-worst offensive rating in the conference. Worst is Chris Bolden of Georgia Tech, with 82.0, then comes Joey van Zegeren of Virginia Tech, at 86.6, and then Britt, at 86.7. Britt's eFG% is a paltry 38.8%. His assist/TO ratio is 1.3/1. He hasn't shown he can play offense at this level.

By contrast, among Duke players who have played more than 5 minutes for the season, our worst oRating is Matt Jones at 100.7. Our worst oRating among our top 7 rotation players is Jabari Parker's 113.5.

I hope Britt plays a lot. I hope he gets a lot of touches and shoots whenever he can. If Nate Britt is an integral part of this game, that means Duke has a really, really good chance to win.

Seth Greenburg picks us to win! Now do I take this as a loss? He has always picked against us!
Wheat on IC you all are picking us to win, rather interesting!
Duke has a plan. Will win.
Have nice day
Jimmy

jv001
02-11-2014, 05:44 AM
I think we will absolutely see UNC go at Parker to see if he gets in foul trouble.

Here's a few of my thoughts on what UNC will have to do to win this game.

First, make a fair % of their foul shots,(that's a big challenge for this team), and limit the turnovers.

Second, maintain some composure. This is a team that loses focus at times. They'll need to block out and Paige/McAdoo have to show some leadership when Duke makes a run and settle the rest of them down. Guard the outside shot, take their chances with the size advantage inside, keep the game close, and don't let a 3pt barrage shake their confidence and lose contact or Duke could blow them out.

Third, attack inside and especially make Parker guard. Finish the darn shot, they've struggled with that too. It's very possible that the fouls could add up on Parker, or Parker would play soft to protect himself. This game is gonna challenge him. Spacing will be key for UNC to get the lanes open for McAdoo to attack Parker, assuming Parker guards him. JMM's first step to the basket is very difficult to stop, he gets the angles and is strong enough to get to the rim. And he gets fouled, a lot. Tokoto can attack the rim too. Jabari is also going to have to watch the Meeks pump fakes and not get caught off his feet. So, Parker's gonna have to spend a substantial amount of time in the paint, where it's easy to get called for fouls, and Jefferson can't do it alone. Plumlee has improved, and his minutes will be important too.

I like how the Heels match up with Duke, but I'm concerned with UNC's maturity. McAdoo is gonna be a tough guard, and JMM is a good choice to guard Parker. Tokoto is a solid defender for Hood. The trio of Meeks, Johnson and James is a good matchup for Jefferson, Plumlee and Hairston, and I like Paige over Cook. Rasheed gets an edge on McDonald, which brings me to Nate Britt.

I think he is the wildcard for a UNC upset. The kid is quick and can penetrate. He also defends with quick hands, and he could cause Sulaimon problems that McDonald can't. He also has a good handle with the ball. He still makes some freshman decisions, and he's not a deep threat, but he can get to the rim and I think that is gonna be Roy's game plan. He can also loosen it up for Paige to get his outside looks, when McDonald can't.
Can he handle the defensive pressure? That's what I'll be watching out for.

K might back off the man pressure and give up the outside looks since UNC shoots so poorly, but I doubt it. It's not his nature. But if he does, McDonald will have to step up and shoot it.

Duke is a clear favorite in this one but I won't be at all surprised if UNC can pull this one off. It will come down to will Duke shoot lights out or just average?

I'm in the camp that thinks this will be a close game. Mainly because it's Duke-Carolina. This is the rivalry game above all rivalry games. I like it you think Jabari is going to guard Meeks and McAdoo at the same time:cool:, just kidding I figure you're talking about different times-different lineups. I also worry about Jabari getting into foul trouble. He makes freshman errors in judgment at times with some silly fouls. It should be a good game to watch on a snowy Wednesday evening. I expect Duke to win 84-79. GoDuke!

Wheat/"/"/"
02-11-2014, 06:29 AM
Wheat - per the bold statement above. If UNC has Duke 'outmatched' at each position - and I am not saying you don't - then why do you say Duke is the favorite???

You might want to re-read my comments, I don't think I ever said UNC has Duke "outmatched" anywhere.

The big difference with these teams to me is shooting ability and maturity.

Troublemaker
02-11-2014, 07:21 AM
There's enough there for UNC that I can't say the Heels match up poorly against Duke, but I wouldn't go so far as to say UNC matches up well against Duke, either.

Basically, they have some defensive strengths that are very useful when playing Duke. As mentioned upthread, this has been Roy's best UNC team at defending the 3, and UNC's two best overall defenders Tokoto and McAdoo play the same positions as Duke's two best players.

However, I have absolutely no fear of UNC's offense. Our PGs Sheed and Quinn will absolutely pick up fullcourt or at least at halfcourt, and we should absolutely want that to happen. Especially against a UNC team that has little backcourt depth and wants to make entry passes to the post, we should want to use our plentiful perimeter depth to pressure and wear down Paige, et al and deny entry passes. What UNC's lack of shooting allows, though -- and THIS is the key -- is for our help defenders to cheat towards the basket when Paige or Britt drive. Since UNC doesn't have a stretch 4, our bigs will mostly be around the basket to help on drives. And Hood can cheat off of Tokoto as well.

UNC's offense can really only hurt us in transition, and that will require cooperation from OUR offense to happen. That's why I go back to Duke's young players staying patient and calm in a rivalry game. I'm thinking specifically of Jabari, Rodney, and Sheed. Execute the offense. No hero ball necessary.

This game will be decided strength vs strength -- UNC's very good defense whose best qualities matchup well with playing Duke VERSUS Duke's historically great offense, according to Pomeroy. So it's really strength VS STRENGTH. As good as UNC's defense is, and as nicely as their best qualities dovetail with defending Duke's offense, Duke should still win this strength VS STRENGTH battle if our young guys execute the offense.

And then UNC would have no chance. Only rare transition points. Drives and postups that are mostly unsuccessful against Duke's packed-in help defense. Paige possibly wearing down as Sheed and Quinn pick him up fullcourt all game long. Oh? He plays the 2 when Britt comes in? Well, then meet Tyler Thornton who's going to chase you relentlessly off the ball. Or Matt Jones who will do the same. Nothing easy for UNC's offense in this game. As long as Duke's offense plays like Duke offense.

szstark
02-11-2014, 08:47 AM
In all seriousness, I think you are correct.

This will be a slobberknocker.

UNC's better players will show up in this one. Their fans will set down the Barefoot wine for a few quarters and, reminiscent of their time at the retirement home, when the voice over the loudspeaker instructs them to cheer, they will put their teeth in and give a holler or two.

In the end, if we can keep Paige out of the lane; if we can get on the offensive glass; if we can get to the free throw line; and if we can dictate the pace--I think Duke pulls this one out without the theatrics of two seasons ago.

Hey, what's this cheap shot against retired people? This former BOG was cheering loudly for Duke twenty years before you were born and I haven't slowed down or quieted down since. Presumably, you are trying to get where I already am. Show some respect. GTHC.

Kedsy
02-11-2014, 08:50 AM
Hey, what's this cheap shot against retired people? This former BOG was cheering loudly for Duke twenty years before you were born and I haven't slowed down or quieted down since. Presumably, you are trying to get where I already am. Show some respect. GTHC.

I think the slur was aimed against retired Tar Heels, not retired Blue Devils, who are obviously people of the highest quality. ;)

oldnavy
02-11-2014, 08:52 AM
You might want to re-read my comments, I don't think I ever said UNC has Duke "outmatched" anywhere.

The big difference with these teams to me is shooting ability and maturity.

Well, you said you like how UNC matches up against Duke. I think that it is fair to assume with you being a UNC fan that you view the match ups favorable to UNC. I wouldn't think that you would like them if you felt that they favored Duke.

I do like the match ups and think that we win at every position... AND I like our maturity over UNC's and our shooting WAY MORE than UNC's...

Don't know if that will translate into a game win...

That's why they play the game!!!

bob blue devil
02-11-2014, 09:02 AM
Anyone making predictions on dukes starting 5? With Paige being so important to unc's success it would be great to see Rasheed locking him down more often than not.

superdave
02-11-2014, 10:35 AM
Wait, you take away their worst and most prolific free throw shooter and the rest of the team shoots FTs worse than Mason Plumlee?

Wow. I think respectability is quite a ways off.

I am trying to give Wheat something to hold on to.

Super "Good shooters they are not." Dave

GGLC
02-11-2014, 10:54 AM
Anyone making predictions on dukes starting 5? With Paige being so important to unc's success it would be great to see Rasheed locking him down more often than not.

Interesting question, given how well Quinn played against Boston College. I'm inclined to think that we see Rasheed/Tyler/Rodney/Jabari/Amile like we have the last few games, with Rasheed continuing to be the primary ballhandler in the first unit.

superdave
02-11-2014, 11:02 AM
Interesting question, given how well Quinn played against Boston College. I'm inclined to think that we see Rasheed/Tyler/Rodney/Jabari/Amile like we have the last few games, with Rasheed continuing to be the primary ballhandler in the first unit.

Makes sense to me. Rasheed and Tyler have played well together. Coach K would typically start Tyler in a tough road game like this so the younger guards dont get rattled at the tip.

Is Meeks now starting to for Unc?

Kedsy
02-11-2014, 12:12 PM
Is Meeks now starting to for Unc?

Yes, Meeks has been starting, with Johnson coming off the bench. Meeks has only played 12, 18, and 13 minutes in UNC's last three games, though.

Matches
02-11-2014, 12:26 PM
Interesting question, given how well Quinn played against Boston College. I'm inclined to think that we see Rasheed/Tyler/Rodney/Jabari/Amile like we have the last few games, with Rasheed continuing to be the primary ballhandler in the first unit.

I think the only possible change to that would be Quinn replacing TT, but I tend to agree K will stick with the lineup from the previous two games.

Troublemaker
02-11-2014, 12:38 PM
Starting matchups should be Sulaimon/Paige, Thornton/McDonald, Hood/Tokoto, Parker/McAdoo, Jefferson/Meeks. On both ends. Brice Johnson should play plenty, though. If UNC gives Britt a lot of minutes alongside Paige as Wheat suggests, Duke will probably match that with Sulaimon and Cook, the more I think about it.

dukelion
02-11-2014, 01:16 PM
It seems everyone assumes that Jabari will take JMM but wouldn't Meeks make more sense?

Jefferson might be giving away close to 100 lbs to Meeks and since we want Jabari to avoid fould trouble taking him off their highest usage post player (JMM) might seem like a good idea.

Troublemaker
02-11-2014, 01:25 PM
It seems everyone assumes that Jabari will take JMM but wouldn't Meeks make more sense?

Jefferson might be giving away close to 100 lbs to Meeks and since we want Jabari to avoid fould trouble taking him off their highest usage post player (JMM) might seem like a good idea.

That's possible, although typically Amile has been guarding the center.

One thing to keep in mind though is Amile has been much more foul-prone than Jabari this season. Amile averages 5 fouls per 40 to Jabari's 3 fouls per 40.

Kedsy
02-11-2014, 01:34 PM
That's possible, although typically Amile has been guarding the center.

One thing to keep in mind though is Amile has been much more foul-prone than Jabari this season. Amile averages 5 fouls per 40 to Jabari's 3 fouls per 40.

But both Amile and Jabari are quicker than Meeks, so it's conceivable the foul trouble could go the other way. Also, as I've mentioned earlier, Meeks hasn't been playing that much lately anyway: 12, 18, and 13 minutes in his last three games.

DukeAlumBS
02-11-2014, 01:34 PM
Well, you said you like how UNC matches up against Duke. I think that it is fair to assume with you being a UNC fan that you view the match ups favorable to UNC. I wouldn't think that you would like them if you felt that they favored Duke.

I do like the match ups and think that we win at every position... AND I like our maturity over UNC's and our shooting WAY MORE than UNC's...

Don't know if that will translate into a game win...

That's why they play the game!!!

Wheat your match ups will not blend, in this game.
UNC is very weak all over, you have no chance.
UNC fans look at the AUSTIN RIVERS game. A team determined, will do so.
Go Duke
UNC loses by 20 at home with this DUKE team.
GTHC/Go Duke
Nice day my friends
Jimmy

Troublemaker
02-11-2014, 01:43 PM
But both Amile and Jabari are quicker than Meeks, so it's conceivable the foul trouble could go the other way. Also, as I've mentioned earlier, Meeks hasn't been playing that much lately anyway: 12, 18, and 13 minutes in his last three games.

Totally agreed. It'd be somewhat ironic if an aggressive Jabari gets McAdoo, Meeks, or Johnson into foul trouble when pre-game concerns were of the other way around variety.

If UNC sticks to playing Johnson more than Meeks, he's a player we can maybe be comfortable putting either Jabari or Amile on. He's a good post player but he doesn't draw contact on his jump hooks and turnarounds. According to kenpom, Johnson only draws 3.8 fouls/40 (compared to McAdoo's 7.5 fouls drawn / 40) and has a FT Rate of 26.9% (compared to McAdoo's 75.2%).

MChambers
02-11-2014, 02:01 PM
Totally agreed. It'd be somewhat ironic if an aggressive Jabari gets McAdoo, Meeks, or Johnson into foul trouble when pre-game concerns were of the other way around variety.

If UNC sticks to playing Johnson more than Meeks, he's a player we can maybe be comfortable putting either Jabari or Amile on. He's a good post player but he doesn't draw contact on his jump hooks and turnarounds. According to kenpom, Johnson only draws 3.8 fouls/40 (compared to McAdoo's 7.5 fouls drawn / 40) and has a FT Rate of 26.9% (compared to McAdoo's 75.2%).
The difference is that UNC is fairly deep inside, with not that big a difference in the quality of their players. Meeks gets in foul trouble? Bring in Johnson, James, Hubert, or Simmons (although the latter two are a fairly big dropoff). In contrast, we lose a lot if Jabari is in foul trouble.

So foul trouble on the bigs is a bigger problem for us, if it happens.

Troublemaker
02-11-2014, 02:07 PM
The difference is that UNC is fairly deep inside, with not that big a difference in the quality of their players. Meeks gets in foul trouble? Bring in Johnson, James, Hubert, or Simmons (although the latter two are a fairly big dropoff). In contrast, we lose a lot if Jabari is in foul trouble.

So foul trouble on the bigs is a bigger problem for us, if it happens.

Indeed. That's why I said McAdoo getting Jabari into foul trouble is my biggest concern upthread.

I think it would hurt UNC a lot if McAdoo got into foul trouble, though. I wouldn't downplay that. He has the best chance of any of UNC's post players of guarding Jabari well. And he's a foul-drawing machine.

Lar77
02-11-2014, 02:27 PM
McAdoo is playing better than he did last year, but I wasn't impressed with him last year. He'll get his points, but he doesn't make the rest of the team better.
Paige is the key to Carolina, and I think our guys can keep him from getting comfortable. That done, it can be a long night for them.
Meanwhile, our guys will likely make more threes than Carolina will attempt and will not give up turnovers to lead to transition points.
The spread is 1.5 in our favor. We beat that but it's not a blowout.

Dr. Rosenrosen
02-11-2014, 02:54 PM
2-4 inches of snow predicted here late tomorrow. Wonder how it will affect the whine and cheese crowd attendance???

Atlanta Duke
02-11-2014, 03:02 PM
2-4 inches of snow predicted here late tomorrow. Wonder how it will affect the whine and cheese crowd attendance???

Carolina fans may have a legitimate excuse for not showing this time. If RDU handles 2-4 inches of snow (with ice?) anywhere near as poorly as Atlanta does I would not attend the game unless it was a reasonable walk back home when it was over

Ultrarunner
02-11-2014, 03:35 PM
Starting matchups should be Sulaimon/Paige, Thornton/McDonald, Hood/Tokoto, Parker/McAdoo, Jefferson/Meeks. On both ends. Brice Johnson should play plenty, though. If UNC gives Britt a lot of minutes alongside Paige as Wheat suggests, Duke will probably match that with Sulaimon and Cook, the more I think about it.

I wouldn't be surprised much if Hairston started in place of Amile. He's better and faster at rotations and it would be very interesting to try and get a charge on McAdoo early. I don't recall JMM passing once he starts for the basket. An early slide into position the instant he goes past Jabari (and no reaching from Jabari!) might work in our favor on the first couple of drives. Carolina uses JMM on the right elbow extended and isolated often enough that it's predictable.

Duke_92
02-11-2014, 03:35 PM
2-4 inches of snow predicted here late tomorrow. Wonder how it will affect the whine and cheese crowd attendance???

Tickets on stub hub are down to $80 with some lower level seats popping up for just over $100. I can walk to the Dome so I'll probably try to make it. That said, my fear is that they will let the students in for free like they did a few years ago and the place will be rocking.

Olympic Fan
02-11-2014, 05:48 PM
Tickets on stub hub are down to $80 with some lower level seats popping up for just over $100. I can walk to the Dome so I'll probably try to make it. That said, my fear is that they will let the students in for free like they did a few years ago and the place will be rocking.

Indeed, I was thinking the same thing. UNC has a poor atmosphere because most of the best seats go to fat cats ... even though they have tried to improve things (mainly by putting students in the end zones right down to court level), it's only helped a bit. The real fans are a long way from the court.

But a decade or so ago, they had a snow story before a big game with Maryland and opened the doors to let students in -- and let them sit courtside. It was a GREAT atmosphere ... the best they've every had there.

jv001
02-11-2014, 05:51 PM
I wouldn't be surprised much if Hairston started in place of Amile. He's better and faster at rotations and it would be very interesting to try and get a charge on McAdoo early. I don't recall JMM passing once he starts for the basket. An early slide into position the instant he goes past Jabari (and no reaching from Jabari!) might work in our favor on the first couple of drives. Carolina uses JMM on the right elbow extended and isolated often enough that it's predictable.

If Josh starts, look for unc to get's lots of offensive rebounds. We need Amile in the lineup to rebound those tarheel missed shots. GoDuke!

Wheat/"/"/"
02-11-2014, 06:26 PM
Well, you said you like how UNC matches up against Duke. I think that it is fair to assume with you being a UNC fan that you view the match ups favorable to UNC. I wouldn't think that you would like them if you felt that they favored Duke.

I do like the match ups and think that we win at every position... AND I like our maturity over UNC's and our shooting WAY MORE than UNC's...

Don't know if that will translate into a game win...

That's why they play the game!!!

I'll try to be a little clearer....

If everybody plays their "A"" game for UNC, I think UNC can win. UNC has the sort of players that can cause Duke problems. But I still think you have to favor Duke in this one because besides Paige and McAdoo, I'm not sold on everybody else's maturity to step up under the bright lights. (Even the senior LMac).

The proven lack of outside shooting and the inability to finish consistently the at the rim, along with the poor foul shooting is just too much to give up against a good team like Duke and expect to win. Now, "if" they play that A game, and the defense causes an below average shooting night, I can see a win, but I'm not confident.

Kedsey-
Britt hasn't been looking to score when he's in, so I can see why his stats are poor. But I've watched him, he can penetrate. And he's a darn quick little defender and anticipates well. I'd challenge him to step up and give him the chance to put pressure on the players guarding the rim by penetrating, and guard the outside.

The player that I think is gonna hurt UNC is Sulaimon, so I want a defender with quick hands on him and somebody that can stay with him. LMac is not that guy.

Bob Green
02-11-2014, 06:32 PM
I think we will absolutely see UNC go at Parker to see if he gets in foul trouble.

Foul trouble goes both ways, so I think we will absolutely see Duke go at Paige to see if he gets in foul trouble. Paige is the one player Carolina cannot afford to have sitting for extended minutes.

Wheat/"/"/"
02-11-2014, 06:55 PM
Foul trouble goes both ways, so I think we will absolutely see Duke go at Paige to see if he gets in foul trouble. Paige is the one player Carolina cannot afford to have sitting for extended minutes.

Yea, we don't want to sit Paige.

He's been pretty smart with his fouls, and moves his feet well. He's not prone to reach, so hopefully the help defense is there for him.

dubldvman
02-11-2014, 07:04 PM
Indeed, I was thinking the same thing. UNC has a poor atmosphere because most of the best seats go to fat cats ... even though they have tried to improve things (mainly by putting students in the end zones right down to court level), it's only helped a bit. The real fans are a long way from the court.

But a decade or so ago, they had a snow story before a big game with Maryland and opened the doors to let students in -- and let them sit courtside. It was a GREAT atmosphere ... the best they've every had there.

UNC has announced that midday decision on Wednesday will be forthcoming and that if weather forecast holds the game will be first-come, first-serve admission. That will mean mostly students surrounding court and lots of excited Heels fans who rarely get to attend an ACC game particularly the Duke game. This will be a challenge for our Devils but they are certainly used to raucous fans. Of course, opportunity for more local Duke fans to sled to the Dean Dome and support our team?!?

Wheat/"/"/"
02-11-2014, 09:24 PM
Interesting stats from IC pre game articles...

"UNC has held Duke to 32.7 percent shooting (17-of-52) from 3-point range over the last three meetings."

"Duke leads the country in 3-point field goal percentage (42.0) and ranks fifth in made 3-pointers per game (9.7). Those numbers are even higher in ACC play as the Blue Devils are shooting 43.0 percent and making 10.6 3-pointers per game. Five different players are shooting higher than 36 percent in ACC play, while four are shooting better than 43 percent. Rasheed Sulaimon (57.6) and Tyler Thornton (57.1) have been lethal secondary options to Hood (46.8) and Andre Dawkins (43.8). "

Something's gotta give....

slower
02-11-2014, 09:29 PM
Wheat your match ups will not blend, in this game.
UNC is very weak all over, you have no chance.
UNC fans look at the AUSTIN RIVERS game. A team determined, will do so.
Go Duke
UNC loses by 20 at home with this DUKE team.
GTHC/Go Duke
Nice day my friends
Jimmy

Didn't you also predict Duke by 15 over Syracuse? If so, then Jimmy's prediction kind of worries me.

dukelifer
02-11-2014, 09:30 PM
2-4 inches of snow predicted here late tomorrow. Wonder how it will affect the whine and cheese crowd attendance???

Looking worse- expecting freezing rain at game time- which will likely produce power outages. Not going to be fun. Duke team may need to camp out in the Dean Dome.

Troublemaker
02-11-2014, 09:52 PM
The spread is 1.5 in our favor. We beat that but it's not a blowout.

Spread is now at 2.5, maybe trending back towards 2.

Yummy, yummy, yummy. I'll be taking Duke at any of those numbers.

Duvall
02-11-2014, 09:55 PM
Interesting stats from IC pre game articles...

"UNC has held Duke to 32.7 percent shooting (17-of-52) from 3-point range over the last three meetings."

"Duke leads the country in 3-point field goal percentage (42.0) and ranks fifth in made 3-pointers per game (9.7). Those numbers are even higher in ACC play as the Blue Devils are shooting 43.0 percent and making 10.6 3-pointers per game. Five different players are shooting higher than 36 percent in ACC play, while four are shooting better than 43 percent. Rasheed Sulaimon (57.6) and Tyler Thornton (57.1) have been lethal secondary options to Hood (46.8) and Andre Dawkins (43.8). "

Something's gotta give....

Last three meetings? That doesn't sound like an arbitrary endpoint at all.

DU82
02-11-2014, 09:55 PM
Looking worse- expecting freezing rain at game time- which will likely produce power outages. Not going to be fun. Duke team may need to camp out in the Dean Dome.

WRAL reported that the ESPN equipment is already there, and as long as both teams and at least two refs can make it, the game will be played. And unlike UNC/GT, televised.

Biggest worry right now is potential power outages. Both for the arena, and for my ability to watch the game.

-jk
02-11-2014, 09:58 PM
WRAL reported that the ESPN equipment is already there, and as long as both teams and at least two refs can make it, the game will be played. And unlike UNC/GT, televised.

Biggest worry right now is potential power outages. Both for the arena, and for my ability to watch the game.

You have an all-wheel car: Go get one of those first-come seats!

-jk

devildeac
02-11-2014, 10:03 PM
Spread is now at 2.5, maybe trending back towards 2.

Yummy, yummy, yummy. I'll be taking Duke at any of those numbers.

I'll still take 82-50, or this (http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/games/boxscore.php?gameid=20020131) at their place. That was a fun game, my only game at the dump. With Ozzie. We enjoyed serenading the unc "faithful" from our top o' the dome seats as they began to exit with 10 minutes left to go in the game.

I think it'll be a close game but I won't say who prevails, no matter how far ahead my radio feed is:o. I do foresee some cheepies being called on Jabari and Amile as part of the homecourt "advantage.":mad:

Duke_92
02-11-2014, 10:03 PM
You have an all-wheel car: Go get one of those first-come seats!

-jk

I'm about 2 miles away. I thinking about pulling my daughter in a sled!

jipops
02-11-2014, 10:04 PM
I think the heels have some major matchup advantages both in the backcourt with Paige and the front court with their rotation of bigs. We may need a huge game from Rodney and a respectable defensive effort to pull this out. Otherwise I see the heels taking this one with Paige, McAdoo, and a series of other bigs having their way inside. Our pace really plays into their hands as well.

DU82
02-11-2014, 10:05 PM
You have an all-wheel car: Go get one of those first-come seats!

-jk

Nope, only FWD. plus I doubt I could pass for a student anymore. But it's only ten miles, just like walking to elementary school, uphill both ways, of course.

OldPhiKap
02-11-2014, 10:05 PM
WRAL reported that the ESPN equipment is already there, and as long as both teams and at least two refs can make it, the game will be played. And unlike UNC/GT, televised.

Biggest worry right now is potential power outages. Both for the arena, and for my ability to watch the game.


You have an all-wheel car: Go get one of those first-come seats!

-jk

If they need a third ref, I can be as fair as Lenny Wirtz and as unobtrusive as Teddy Valentine.

Duvall
02-11-2014, 10:09 PM
I think the heels have some major matchup advantages both in the backcourt with Paige and the front court with their rotation of bigs.

Why? What substantive reason is there to think that Paige would have any advantage over Duke's guards, or that UNC's frontcourt would have any edge over Parker, Hood and Jefferson other than number of bodies?

Kedsy
02-11-2014, 10:24 PM
I think the heels have some major matchup advantages both in the backcourt with Paige and the front court with their rotation of bigs. We may need a huge game from Rodney and a respectable defensive effort to pull this out. Otherwise I see the heels taking this one with Paige, McAdoo, and a series of other bigs having their way inside. Our pace really plays into their hands as well.

Yeah, on what are you basing this? Because your observations really don't jibe with the stats.

Troublemaker
02-11-2014, 10:24 PM
I think the heels have some major matchup advantages both in the backcourt with Paige and the front court with their rotation of bigs. We may need a huge game from Rodney and a respectable defensive effort to pull this out. Otherwise I see the heels taking this one with Paige, McAdoo, and a series of other bigs having their way inside. Our pace really plays into their hands as well.

Nice reverse jinx attempt, jipops!

Atlanta Duke
02-11-2014, 10:25 PM
WRAL reported that the ESPN equipment is already there, and as long as both teams and at least two refs can make it, the game will be played. And unlike UNC/GT, televised.

Biggest worry right now is potential power outages. Both for the arena, and for my ability to watch the game.

According to WRAL map, potential for ice accumultion is .25 to .5 inches in the Triangle. Here in Atlanta they are saying once you get above .25 inches you are looking at significant numbers of downed trees and power lines. Anyone at the Dean Dome tomorrow night who cannot walk home may not be going too far for awhile after the game.

davekay1971
02-11-2014, 10:33 PM
Interesting stats from IC pre game articles...

"UNC has held Duke to 32.7 percent shooting (17-of-52) from 3-point range over the last three meetings."

"Duke leads the country in 3-point field goal percentage (42.0) and ranks fifth in made 3-pointers per game (9.7). Those numbers are even higher in ACC play as the Blue Devils are shooting 43.0 percent and making 10.6 3-pointers per game. Five different players are shooting higher than 36 percent in ACC play, while four are shooting better than 43 percent. Rasheed Sulaimon (57.6) and Tyler Thornton (57.1) have been lethal secondary options to Hood (46.8) and Andre Dawkins (43.8). "

Something's gotta give....

Biggest problem with those stats is that they're comparing stats from last year (UNC's 3 point defense against Duke) to stats with this year's team (Duke's current gunners). UNC has some different players, of course, but Duke is a completely different team. Three of our biggest 3 point gunners (Dawkins, Hood, and Parker) weren't playing for Duke last year, and Cook and Thornton were in primary PG roles last year but spend at least as much time off ball this year. It's just hard to make much comparison.

It would be interesting, though, to do some data mining to see if Roy has coached the Heels to defend the 3 against Duke more aggressively than they do against other teams. That trend, if it's there, would have some bearing on this year's game.

Kedsy
02-11-2014, 10:49 PM
Last three meetings? That doesn't sound like an arbitrary endpoint at all.

Bingo. They had to use 3 games because if they used 2 games or 4 games, in both samples Duke totaled over 35% from three-range. Not sure why they didn't go back to 2011, which would have made the totals 7 games and 32.9%, but if you go back through 2010, it goes back up to 35%+ in 9 games.

Here's the detail, in date order, earliest to latest:

2010, @UNC: 9-18 (.500), Duke win
2010, @Duke: 8-21 (.381), Duke win
2011, @Duke: 8-26 (.308), Duke win
2011, @UNC: 6-27 (.222), UNC win
2011, ACCT: 9-20 (.450), Duke win
2012, @UNC: 14-36 (.389), Duke win
2012, @Duke: 6-21 (.286), UNC win
2013, @Duke: 6-16 (.375), Duke win
2013, @UNC: 5-15 (.333), Duke win

So I disagree that "something's gotta give," but over the past four years, when UNC has held us below 30% from the threemosphere, they've won (albeit in a tiny sample of two games). If we've gone over 30%, then we kick some Tar Heel butt (luckily for us, a much bigger sample).

Problem for Carolina is they haven't held us below 30% very often in recent years, and a second problem for them is Duke has only been below 30% once all this season (vs. Arizona). But if UNC can hold us under 30% tomorrow, they might have a chance to win.

Wander
02-11-2014, 11:01 PM
Agreed with others above that the "last 3 match-ups" 3 point percentage stat is absolutely idiotic. With that being said, UNC does have the best 3-point defense in the ACC in conference play, so it's a statistic worth keeping an eye on.

-bdbd
02-11-2014, 11:02 PM
Nice reverse jinx attempt, jipops!

Sorry, just no way in hell this game is, overall, match-up disadvantageous to Duke. Might be one position I could see that match-up issue favoring NC, and even there we also have some match-up positives in the same position... I really can't wait to see Meeks trying to guard Parker or Hood 20' from the hoop, or AJ 12-15' away....:cool:

Duvall
02-11-2014, 11:06 PM
Sorry, just no way in hell this game is, overall, match-up disadvantageous to Duke. Might be one position I could see that match-up issue favoring NC, and even there we also have some match-up positives in the same position... I really can't wait to see Meeks trying to guard Parker or Hood 20' from the hoop, or AJ 12-15' away....:cool:

Well, let's not go overboard. Matchups only go so far, and it's still the case that UNC has played solid team defense this year, and Duke...hasn't.

bedeviled
02-11-2014, 11:18 PM
see if Roy has coached the Heels to defend the 3 against Duke more aggressively than they do against other teams

UNC does have the best 3-point defense in the ACC in conference play, so it's a statistic worth keeping an eye on.

Roy answered a question about this in his pre-game press conference (http://northcarolina.scout.com/2/1374847.html). Personally, I hope they continue their defensive strategy. I'll be looking for the signal (crossed fingers) being given from the sidelines. :)

Q: The stats indicate that UNC is defending the 3-ball better than any team in the ACC. How do you think your team is playing in terms of guarding against the 3-ball?
A: “We’ve played some games where the other teams have missed some open shots, that’s part of it. Let’s be honest. We’ve given a few teams some open shots that they missed and I hope they keep doing that. We are trying to emphasize guarding the ball period. If we guard the ball better, it gets less penetration and then we have to help less and then you’re closer to the 3-point shooter.

gofurman
02-11-2014, 11:39 PM
According to WRAL map, potential for ice accumultion is .25 to .5 inches in the Triangle. Here in Atlanta they are saying once you get above .25 inches you are looking at significant numbers of downed trees and power lines. Anyone at the Dean Dome tomorrow night who cannot walk home may not be going too far for awhile after the game.

that's weak - here in warm Greenville, SOUTH Carolina we are looking for 10 inches of snow. crazy, huh? We had 2 inches of wet snow today and they are saying 6-10 inches tomorrow through THursday. Surely the Northern Carolinians can handle a few inches of ice and snow (maybe its the UNC people who are so weak - that would make sense)

Greenville, SC forecast -
Overnight Tuesday Snow likely, mainly after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Wednesday DAY Snow. Patchy fog after 10am. High near 28. Blustery, with a northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.
Wednesday Night Snow, mainly before 5am. Low around 26. Winds could gust as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 more inches possible.
Thursday A chance of snow, mainly before 9am. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 39. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 8 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.


JJK - I know ice is a totally different animal.. everyone be safe

BD80
02-12-2014, 06:00 AM
Looking worse- expecting freezing rain at game time- which will likely produce power outages. Not going to be fun. Duke team may need to camp out in the Dean Dome.

Storm their castle, rape their cattle, etc. etc.


You have an all-wheel car: Go get one of those first-come seats! ...

I hear Fats is loaning out SUVs to boost attendance

Wheat/"/"/"
02-12-2014, 06:01 AM
Biggest problem with those stats is that they're comparing stats from last year (UNC's 3 point defense against Duke) to stats with this year's team (Duke's current gunners). UNC has some different players, of course, but Duke is a completely different team. Three of our biggest 3 point gunners (Dawkins, Hood, and Parker) weren't playing for Duke last year, and Cook and Thornton were in primary PG roles last year but spend at least as much time off ball this year. It's just hard to make much comparison.

It would be interesting, though, to do some data mining to see if Roy has coached the Heels to defend the 3 against Duke more aggressively than they do against other teams. That trend, if it's there, would have some bearing on this year's game.

I don't put any stock in year to year stats either, too much changes.

Duke's lower shooting % surprised me those past few games, especially when you consider they won two of the last three.

NSDukeFan
02-12-2014, 06:04 AM
I don't put any stock in year to year stats either, too much changes.

Duke's lower shooting % surprised me those past few games, especially when you consider they won two of the last three.

It's because Duke uses it's big men better than some think. (;

SirBlueDevil
02-12-2014, 06:48 AM
I tend to get nervous when i go about giving out my opinion on our rivalry match ups, tonight's game will be no different. I'm still pissed off at the womens recent loss to the lady heels and can only hope and pray that our mens program come out on fire and keep up the intensity all the way through.

Unc regardless of not really matching up well or being as deep as our blue devils will play much more harder than any team they've hosted this year (as always the case with the rivalry). I say our blue devils pull out the win but not without keeping the entire blue devil nation constantly on the edge of our seats!

Last i read the line was Duke (2.5)?....God I Love This Rivalry!

Wheat/"/"/"
02-12-2014, 07:45 AM
It's because Duke uses it's big men better than some think. (;

Surely that's not it...I blame Seth Curry. :)

jv001
02-12-2014, 07:49 AM
Surely that's not it...I blame Seth Curry. :)

After tonight, it'll be Andre Dawkinsssssssssssss you blame. :cool: GoDuke!

Duvall
02-12-2014, 07:56 AM
Surely that's not it...I blame Seth Curry. :)

After last year, I imagine you would.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6cGeWXvcNdc

jv001
02-12-2014, 08:06 AM
I tend to get nervous when i go about giving out my opinion on our rivalry match ups, tonight's game will be no different. I'm still pissed off at the womens recent loss to the lady heels and can only hope and pray that our mens program come out on fire and keep up the intensity all the way through.

Unc regardless of not really matching up well or being as deep as our blue devils will play much more harder than any team they've hosted this year (as always the case with the rivalry). I say our blue devils pull out the win but not without keeping the entire blue devil nation constantly on the edge of our seats!

Last i read the line was Duke (2.5)?....God I Love This Rivalry!

Line still 2.5 with over under 151.5. Pitt is favored by 1 point over Syracuse. Part of me wants the Orange to be undefeated when they visit Cameron, but we need Pitt to lose in our move up the ACC standings. GoDuke!

Troublemaker
02-12-2014, 08:07 AM
Seth really was one of the most vicious Carolina Killers that has ever put on a Duke uniform. He had several games where he completely raised his level against them. He'll always have a special place in our hearts for that.

jv001
02-12-2014, 08:10 AM
Seth really was one of the most vicious Carolina Killers that has ever put on a Duke uniform. He had several games where he completely raised his level against them. He'll always have a special place in our hearts for that.

Mine too, Troublemaker. He picked it up when Duke played the tarheels. He must dislike them as much as I do. Notice I didn't say the word "hate". For some reason, I'm more fired up about this game than any recent Duke-Carolina game. GoDuke!

Ichabod Drain
02-12-2014, 08:19 AM
Apparently there was a fight at the UNC/Duke Managers game last night. Let's win this one for the other Ryan Kelly! 9F9F9F

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gQ6QZvyjUsg&feature=youtu.be

Troublemaker
02-12-2014, 08:20 AM
Part of me wants the Orange to be undefeated when they visit Cameron

I have to admit, I think that would be a lot of fun as well. Since I'm still clinging to hopes that Duke can gain a regular season title share at 15-3, I'll be rooting for Pitt. But I won't terribly mind if Syracuse wins, either. That would set up an amazing game with undefeated #1 Syracuse coming into Cameron. And then I can stop clinging to any remaining hopes for the regular season title as well. (We would then need Syracuse to win at UVA and for UVA to beat Syracuse at home. Unfortunately, only 1 of them can lose that game.)

jv001
02-12-2014, 08:23 AM
Apparently there was a fight at the UNC/Duke Managers game last night. Let's win this one for the other Ryan Kelly! 9F9F9F

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gQ6QZvyjUsg&feature=youtu.be

Well, maybe that's one of the reason, I'm fired up for tonight's game. GoDuke!

flyingdutchdevil
02-12-2014, 08:25 AM
Apparently there was a fight at the UNC/Duke Managers game last night. Let's win this one for the other Ryan Kelly! 9F9F9F

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gQ6QZvyjUsg&feature=youtu.be

%$&#!!!!!! Dirty holes!!!!!

I hope the managers show this footage to the players today. Anything to get our team even more fired up.

Atlanta Duke
02-12-2014, 09:14 AM
Apparently there was a fight at the UNC/Duke Managers game last night. Let's win this one for the other Ryan Kelly! 9F9F9F

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gQ6QZvyjUsg&feature=youtu.be

CBS Sports.com has a story on the scuffle in the managers' game, which included this nugget on the popularity of regular season Duke-Carolina games

A report from Covers.com Tuesday stated that the game regularly sees thrice as much action than any other regular-season college hoops tilt.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/24440018/video-duke-unc-managers-scuffle-in-annual-game

Following the link in the CBS story provided this information of value to those who increase their rooting interest with a wager

Duke won both meetings with North Carolina last year but the road team covered the spread in each game. In fact, the last five meetings between the two have seen the road team cover, and going back long term, the visitor is 22-8 [Against The Spread] in the last 30 installments of the Tobacco Road Rivalry.

http://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=358880

Dukehky
02-12-2014, 09:15 AM
%$&#!!!!!! Dirty holes!!!!!

I hope the managers show this footage to the players today. Anything to get our team even more fired up.

The Carolina Managers always have like 3 or 4 huge a holes, and they all have some kind of inferiority complex. Duke won for like 14 straight years because there was always some prospective walk-on who was being a manager for the time so they could drop 40 in the game. (Casey Peters being the latest).

I doubt this has any impact on the game tonight though.

Kedsy
02-12-2014, 09:16 AM
After tonight, it'll be Andre Dawkinsssssssssssss you blame. :cool: GoDuke!

I dreamed last night that I was watching the game. On three different occasions, Andre launched a three-pointer just as the shot clock expired. The first one swished in. On the other two shots, the net barely moved. Three daggers. A joy to see.

And I believe in my dreams because I have ESPN.

DukeAlumBS
02-12-2014, 09:21 AM
A lot of comments about their bigs and that they may be an issue. I do not see this at all. With what Parker and Hood have done against bigger teams prior to tonights game. Leads me to think the opposite. After the Pitt game and Syracuse both players were splitting double coverage and scoring inside. I think Parker and Hood are a different animal. And feel they will give us an inside game as they have been. Especially against UNC, which is not at the level of many teams we have played!
We have so many, so many shooters. Our 3 will be there.
Nice day
Go Duke
Jimmy

PackMan97
02-12-2014, 09:31 AM
Duke and Carolina have both canceled classes for today. Duke has informed their students that Saturday will be used to make up the lost day. Carolina has informed their students the classes are made up and not to worry about it.

DukeAlumBS
02-12-2014, 09:36 AM
Duke and Carolina have both canceled classes for today. Duke has informed their students that Saturday will be used to make up the lost day. Carolina has informed their students the classes are made up and not to worry about it.

Thank you very much, this is a riot!
Have nice day
Jimmy

tecumseh
02-12-2014, 10:22 AM
Looks like no Dick Vitale even if ESPN can televise which they could not at the UNC-Ga Tech game. Remember years ago when they let the students down to the floor in Charmacheal

Troublemaker
02-12-2014, 10:40 AM
I dreamed last night that I was watching the game. On three different occasions, Andre launched a three-pointer just as the shot clock expired. The first one swished in. On the other two shots, the net barely moved. Three daggers. A joy to see.

And I believe in my dreams because I have ESPN.

Andre as always could be a key player and swing this game with his shooting. I was thinking, yet another way we could combat a Britt-Paige backcourt would be to play Dre at the 2, run him off screens, and see if the 6'1" Paige or the 5'11" Britt can challenge the shot of 6'4" with good leaping ability Dre.

Lots of ways Duke can deploy our perimeter. Hopefully one of the possible combinations we pick will click in this game.

flyingdutchdevil
02-12-2014, 10:43 AM
Andre as always could be a key player and swing this game with his shooting. I was thinking, yet another way we could combat a Britt-Paige backcourt would be to play Dre at the 2, run him off screens, and see if the 6'1" Paige or the 5'11" Britt can challenge the shot of 6'4" with good leaping ability Dre.

Lots of ways Duke can deploy our perimeter. Hopefully one of the possible combinations we pick will click in this game.

My biased opinion believes that Sulaimon will be the difference-maker. As much as we make fun of UNC, they are decent at closing in on drivers. But with Sulaimon, he is not only our best driver, but our best passer as well. I'd be surprised if he didn't get at least 6 assists tonight.

Bold statement: Sulaimon will have a double-double tonight. At least half of the assists will go to Jabari and Dawkins.

jv001
02-12-2014, 10:48 AM
My biased opinion believes that Sulaimon will be the difference-maker. As much as we make fun of UNC, they are decent at closing in on drivers. But with Sulaimon, he is not only our best driver, but our best passer as well. I'd be surprised if he didn't get at least 6 assists tonight.

Bold statement: Sulaimon will have a double-double tonight. At least half of the assists will go to Jabari and Dawkins.

I like your thinking. Rasheed could decide this game with his ability to drive and find open shooters. Jabari and Andre could be those guys. The X-factor could be Quinn. He had a hot shooting hand last game and could hit some huge 3s. But I don't know if Coach K will use Rasheed and Quinn together for many minutes. GoDuke!

UrinalCake
02-12-2014, 10:51 AM
After last year, I imagine you would.

That was one of the greatest first halves I've ever seen. Seth always played big against UNC, which defied all logic when he was always at a huge size and speed disadvantage. And LOL at the crowd "cheers" around the 3 minute mark of that video. I thought someone was going to fall asleep in between the lazy drones of "tar... heels... tar... heels... zzzzzzzz"

SirBlueDevil
02-12-2014, 10:54 AM
"Duke and Carolina have both canceled classes for today. Duke has informed their students that Saturday will be used to make up the lost day. Carolina has informed their students the classes are made up and not to worry about it"!

Packman, i have to agree with DukeAlum: this comment made me spit out the beverage i was drinking while in a meeting(i had my lap top open to the duke forum while listening to my older brother conduct a production meeting)

LAMO FUNNY POST DAWG!

roywhite
02-12-2014, 10:56 AM
I'll say *4.5* is the over/under on dunks from our Chicago prodigy.

I remember Grant Hill having a big game as a freshman in the Dean Dome, and commenting that he had heard the floor was springy and it was a good place to dunk.

I'll go OVER.

flyingdutchdevil
02-12-2014, 11:01 AM
I like your thinking. Rasheed could decide this game with his ability to drive and find open shooters. Jabari and Andre could be those guys. The X-factor could be Quinn. He had a hot shooting hand last game and could hit some huge 3s. But I don't know if Coach K will use Rasheed and Quinn together for many minutes. GoDuke!

I also like Sulaimon because of his ability to shut down Paige. Paige is 6'1" and likes to shoot. Sulaimon can successfully blanket Paige and, if Paige drives, Sulaimon's height will give him fits.

I don't see Cook as much of an impact player during this game. But, as usual, I hope I'm wrong.

Furniture
02-12-2014, 11:01 AM
Duke and Carolina have both canceled classes for today. Duke has informed their students that Saturday will be used to make up the lost day. Carolina has informed their students the classes are made up and not to worry about it.

It's not a riot it's an over exaggeration. My question is why do it?

rsvman
02-12-2014, 11:02 AM
I'd love to see Jabari pull a Mason Plumlee and go for the reverse dunk tonight, just for old times' sake.

Or would it be even cooler if Marshall could get it done; kind of an homage to his elder brother.

In any case, I expect a hard-fought game but ultimately I think we come back to Durham with an 8-point victory.



GTHC, GTH!! 9F forever!!!!!

flyingdutchdevil
02-12-2014, 11:07 AM
I'd love to see Jabari pull a Mason Plumlee and go for the reverse dunk tonight, just for old times' sake.

If we're up 15-20, I'd also like to see Jabari pull a Mason and slap the backboard for the automatic technical. Just for old times' sake ;)

DukeAlumBS
02-12-2014, 11:12 AM
I guess my hounding his UNC talk and about IC. Well there seems to be a change. IC has a nice, positive forum on Parker. Very positive information about him. That we all know.
Pack Pride is about 95 percent that we win tonight on their voting. I know Wheat is a UNC type. Thanks Wheat.
After going over everything.
1. We beat you inside
2. Too many 3 point shooters!
3. I am back to Duke winning by lets say 32.
LOL
Go Duke, great game coming up!
Nice day
Jimmy

Atlanta Duke
02-12-2014, 12:27 PM
I guess my hounding his UNC talk and about IC. Well there seems to be a change. IC has a nice, positive forum on Parker. Very positive information about him.

IC must have hired whomever Target fired to provide site security since that Parker forum pretty clearly establishes IC has been hacked

Delmer
02-12-2014, 12:39 PM
IC must have hired whomever Target fired to provide site security since that Parker forum pretty clearly establishes IC has been hacked


I LOL'd - thumbs up Atlanta Duke

timmy c
02-12-2014, 12:40 PM
Will Hood start, or will he be in the locker room at tip-off?

BD80
02-12-2014, 12:44 PM
Will Hood start, or will he be in the locker room at tip-off?

It is the dean dump ...

rsvman
02-12-2014, 12:45 PM
Will Hood start, or will he be in the locker room at tip-off?

If we have the "accidental Dawkins start" v3.0, I hope it works out the same way it did twice before, with Dawkins making a quick three.

COYS
02-12-2014, 12:46 PM
A lot of comments about their bigs and that they may be an issue. I do not see this at all. With what Parker and Hood have done against bigger teams prior to tonights game. Leads me to think the opposite. After the Pitt game and Syracuse both players were splitting double coverage and scoring inside. I think Parker and Hood are a different animal. And feel they will give us an inside game as they have been. Especially against UNC, which is not at the level of many teams we have played!
We have so many, so many shooters. Our 3 will be there.
Nice day
Go Duke
Jimmy

I tend to agree. Wheat is (always) really good at getting us to second guess our big guys ;). Yet, quite honestly, Duke has had better forward play all season. Yes, obviously McAdoo and company COULD outplay Jabari, Amile, Marshall (and maybe a little Josh). But there's no reason to think UNC has a distinct advantage. In fact, there is far more reason to think that Duke has the advantage. Jabari has a massive efficiency advantage over McAdoo (113 offEff to 104) in addition to his raw numbers advantage. Amile might not score as much as Brice Johnson, but he is also far more efficient (131 offEff! to 113). Also, Jabari and Amile are formidable rebounders and have proven so against tough competition all season. They would need to play poorly for that to be an issue. Basically, Duke's frontcourt is better on offense by a decent clip, possibly a little bit behind on defense (as the entire Duke team is), but not in any way that screams red flag, unless both Jabari and Amile get into terrible foul trouble a la Syracuse. Finally, not only is our frontcourt better on offense, but our entire team is better by a long shot at putting the ball in the hoop. Duke just needs to play its game, continue rebounding well, especially on the offensive end, and getting open looks from three and opportunities around the basket for Jabari and Amile. Obviously, Duke can lose this game (KenPom says it's our toughest regular season game left on the schedule), but UNC will need to play well and some of our guys will have to play poorly for that to happen.

flyingdutchdevil
02-12-2014, 12:53 PM
A few great quotes from a thread titled "Jabari Parker" (DukeAlumBS referenced it earlier):


He is a great player and am one I am very glad will only be in derm for one year. He is a likeable [dukie], and that's a very RARE breed.



Parker is the best player in college basketball. Duke has put together a pro team, and is adding more next year. If they had a better coach, there would be no team that could stay with them. Kind of strange the point spread is only 2 1/2.


Get this crap off the frickin board

Pro Team?

They've lost 6 times this year...(That's right SIX for those of you who watched the Vermont game)

F this garbage

I love this Kerlina rivalry!

g-money
02-12-2014, 12:56 PM
I dreamed last night that I was watching the game. On three different occasions, Andre launched a three-pointer just as the shot clock expired. The first one swished in. On the other two shots, the net barely moved. Three daggers. A joy to see.

And I believe in my dreams because I have ESPN.

Yeah, my spider sense is telling me that Andre is going to drop some bombs tonight. I'm feeling 15 points, 4-7 from 3, with a dunk and a FT. Duke wins by 7, 83-76.

GTHC

Bob Green
02-12-2014, 01:09 PM
Duke is a 2.5 points favorite with the over/under set at 151.5 so I'll take Duke and the under. My prediction is Duke 77, Carolina 74.

devildeac
02-12-2014, 01:12 PM
Duke is a 2.5 points favorite with the over/under set at 151.5 so I'll take Duke and the under. My prediction is Duke 77, Carolina 74.

If it's going to be that close, Bob, I'm going to need more "medication.":o

mgtr
02-12-2014, 01:45 PM
If it's going to be that close, Bob, I'm going to need more "medication.":o

Do liquor stores still deliver?

superdave
02-12-2014, 02:03 PM
A few great quotes from a thread titled "Jabari Parker" (DukeAlumBS referenced it earlier):



I love this Kerlina rivalry!

If we had a better coach? I love it.

I remember the days when Carolina fans used to lecture me on how Coach K taught Duhon to shoot poorly or how he took Micky-D Lance Thomas and made him worse in all aspects of the game.

If Coach K is that bad, they must really hate Roy over there.

devildeac
02-12-2014, 02:36 PM
Do liquor stores still deliver?

There's about 4" of snow on the ground in our neighborhood now. I imagine the ABC stores closed a couple hours ago. :(

Wait! I think I have some vodka in the freezer, whiskey in the 'fridge and plenty of micros in the cellar (aka garage). I think I'm set. At least for the first half.

davekay1971
02-12-2014, 02:47 PM
If we had a better coach? I love it.

I remember the days when Carolina fans used to lecture me on how Coach K taught Duhon to shoot poorly or how he took Micky-D Lance Thomas and made him worse in all aspects of the game.

If Coach K is that bad, they must really hate Roy over there.

Most Carolina fans I know do hate Roy. The minority defend his HOF credentials. The majority blame him for recruiting losses, not doing enough with the players he has, and mostly for being firmly second fiddle to Duke since 2010.

Wheat/"/"/"
02-12-2014, 03:28 PM
I tend to agree. Wheat is (always) really good at getting us to second guess our big guys ;). Yet, quite honestly, Duke has had better forward play all season. Yes, obviously McAdoo and company COULD outplay Jabari, Amile, Marshall (and maybe a little Josh). But there's no reason to think UNC has a distinct advantage. In fact, there is far more reason to think that Duke has the advantage. Jabari has a massive efficiency advantage over McAdoo (113 offEff to 104) in addition to his raw numbers advantage. Amile might not score as much as Brice Johnson, but he is also far more efficient (131 offEff! to 113). Also, Jabari and Amile are formidable rebounders and have proven so against tough competition all season. They would need to play poorly for that to be an issue. Basically, Duke's frontcourt is better on offense by a decent clip, possibly a little bit behind on defense (as the entire Duke team is), but not in any way that screams red flag, unless both Jabari and Amile get into terrible foul trouble a la Syracuse. Finally, not only is our frontcourt better on offense, but our entire team is better by a long shot at putting the ball in the hoop. Duke just needs to play its game, continue rebounding well, especially on the offensive end, and getting open looks from three and opportunities around the basket for Jabari and Amile. Obviously, Duke can lose this game (KenPom says it's our toughest regular season game left on the schedule), but UNC will need to play well and some of our guys will have to play poorly for that to happen.

I think the post play inside from Duke this season has been good when they have committed to it by setting up Parker inside.

It's the reason the team is playing and shooting so well overall, there is a balanced threat inside when he's in the paint and it helps get better looks from outside.

Jefferson has to be respected down low, but Parker in particular has a very good back to the basket game and has the ability to get off a good shot at the basket in traffic, and both are strong rebounders.

Jefferson is improving pretty fast. I like his bounce and instincts for the ball, he just has to learn to limit his fouling and keep working on scoring after the back to the basket catch. He is a quality big man on the rise.

The problem for Duke is there is no real depth inside. It's not a big problem because they've been shooting so well. I like Plumlee's energy, and Hairston's toughness, but good teams will go after them.

UNC is going to push their offense to get it inside tonight and make Parker/Jefferson guard. They'll penetrate too to try and draw fouls and cover for the outside shooting weakness.

If Duke shoots it well, Parker and Jefferson can play more conservatively and protect themselves from fouls. If they don't, then they are going to have to be much more aggressive defensively and that will lead to the challenge of avoiding fouls against a team that draws a lot of them.

I'm guessing something like 38% 3pt shooting from Duke is the magic number. Above that and Duke wins. Below that and UNC has a good chance for the upset.

superdave
02-12-2014, 04:00 PM
The problem for Duke is there is no real depth inside. It's not a big problem because they've been shooting so well. I like Plumlee's energy, and Hairston's toughness, but good teams will go after them.


So Duke should be fine. I mean, Carolina isnt even ranked, so they cannot be all that good, right?

I think you will see a combined ~10 minutes from Plumlee and Hairston tonight. They played a combined 16 vs Pitt and 10 vs Cuse.

You will be getting a heavy dose of energetic, efficient Jabari Parker tonight, Wheat/''/''/''.

Wheat/"/"/"
02-12-2014, 04:12 PM
You will be getting a heavy dose of energetic, efficient Jabari Parker tonight, Wheat/''/''/''.

...And you will be getting a heavy dose of a Mac Attack at the rim...let's roll!

DBFAN
02-12-2014, 04:14 PM
Some sources on Twitter are now saying the game may very well be cancelled

superdave
02-12-2014, 04:24 PM
...And you will be getting a heavy dose of a Mac Attack at the rim...let's roll!

Will we get the perimeter-drifting McAdoo or the lower-the-shoulder in the paint McAdoo?

Either way, we know he wont be rebounding at a high rate.

Duvall
02-12-2014, 04:26 PM
...And you will be getting a heavy dose of a Mac Attack at the rim...let's roll!

I'm a lot more worried about the Mac Attack on the floor. We'll see, whenever the game is played.

Ichabod Drain
02-12-2014, 04:27 PM
Mark Armstrong Twitter: "From Duke staffer: 'Done deal' that game is off for tonight. Waiting for ACC approval"

roywhite
02-14-2014, 06:16 AM
Justise Winslow should fit right in.

Duke Blue Devils Commit Justise Winslow Will Give Team Defensive Versatility
(http://www.rantsports.com/prep-sports/2014/02/11/duke-blue-devils-commit-justise-winslow-will-give-team-defensive-versatility/)



here is who Winslow thought would need to start for Duke in order for them to lose against the Heels.

“Coach Capel,” Winslow wrote to USA TODAY Sports. “Coach Wojo, Coach Nate, Mrs. Krzyzewski and Jay Williams start for Duke. Also, Coach K’s dog, Blue, has to dress up as the Tar Heel mascot. Then, they’ve got a chance.”

R

FerryFor50
02-14-2014, 07:27 AM
Justise Winslow should fit right in.

Duke Blue Devils Commit Justise Winslow Will Give Team Defensive Versatility
(http://www.rantsports.com/prep-sports/2014/02/11/duke-blue-devils-commit-justise-winslow-will-give-team-defensive-versatility/)

That is fantastic! He may be funnier than MP3!

FerryFor50
02-14-2014, 07:28 AM
...And you will be getting a heavy dose of a Mac Attack at the rim...let's roll!

Is that what they're calling Kennedy Meeks? I thought it was "Big Mac Attack"...

Wheat/"/"/"
02-14-2014, 07:35 AM
Is that what they're calling Kennedy Meeks? I thought it was "Big Mac Attack"...

Call him anything but late for dinner.....

slower
02-14-2014, 08:18 AM
That is fantastic! He may be funnier than MP3!

Sorry - he's not even close to MP3 (in the humor department, that is).

jv001
02-14-2014, 10:45 AM
Justise Winslow should fit right in.

Duke Blue Devils Commit Justise Winslow Will Give Team Defensive Versatility
(http://www.rantsports.com/prep-sports/2014/02/11/duke-blue-devils-commit-justise-winslow-will-give-team-defensive-versatility/)

I like this kid already. He and I have something in common. We both think Duke will beat unc. GoDuke!

nyesq83
02-16-2014, 04:54 PM
hahaha

brevity
02-16-2014, 10:16 PM
It could be my special Reynolds Wrap hat, but I sense a conspiracy to this delayed game that benefits... UNC.


Last night I was wondering whether UNC would be ranked Monday, given their 5-game winning streak and the self-fulfilling hype machine for Wednesday's game. Looking at last week's AP rankings, I see four teams leaving the Top 25: #19 Oklahoma State, #21 Oklahoma, #22 Connecticut, #23 Gonzaga. Ohio State will climb back in, and SMU is ascendant after their crushing of Cincinnati, leaving two openings. But I just don't see UNC, which received no votes last week, leapfrogging all the unranked teams that did.

I wrote that upthread a week ago, back when there was nary a snowflake in the sky. Thanks to the postponement, UNC extends its winning streak to 6 games by beating #25 Pittsburgh, and I get to ask the question again.

Along with Pittsburgh, the following teams should be dropping out of the Top 25: #23 SMU, #22 Ohio State, and maybe #20 Memphis. (The Tigers lost in overtime at #24 Connecticut and had almost twice as many votes as Pittsburgh.) So that's 3 or 4 openings. Here are the unranked teams receiving votes that did not lose this past week: Gonzaga (44 votes), UCLA (43), New Mexico (23), Stephen F. Austin (3), North Carolina (1), Arizona State (1).

Let's say that Gonzaga (already ranked by the coaches) and UCLA make it in. Can anyone leapfrog New Mexico (or Memphis)? UNC could, but they have the weakest argument. Stephen F. Austin, out of the Southland Conference, has won 21 straight; they haven't lost since Thanksgiving. Writers love a good story, as seen with SMU last week. And Arizona State beat a much better ranked team last week. I would guess the Heels fall just short, around #27 or #28. We'll see tomorrow.

grad_devil
02-17-2014, 11:57 AM
Looks like we've jumped to #5, and UNC-CH is the first team out, receiving 54 votes.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings/_/year/2014/poll/1

Wheat/"/"/"
02-17-2014, 04:33 PM
It could be my special Reynolds Wrap hat, but I sense a conspiracy to this delayed game that benefits... UNC.


UNC is a young team gaining confidence. The postponement of the Duke game gave them another game to grow and allows them a couple of extra practices to prepare for Duke.

I looked at it as a definite benefit for the Heels.

Bob Green
02-17-2014, 05:15 PM
UNC is a young team...

Facts get in the way of your narrative.

Duke starters by year group: Seniors (1); Juniors (1); Sophomores (2); Freshmen (1).
Carolina starters by year group: Seniors (1); Juniors (1); Sophomores (2); Freshmen (1).

Duke's starting line-up of Thornton, Cook, Hood, Jefferson and Parker is just as young as Carolina's starting line-up of McDonald, McAdoo, Paige, Tokoto and Meeks.

Kfanarmy
02-17-2014, 05:25 PM
Facts get in the way of your narrative.

Duke starters by year group: Seniors (1); Juniors (1); Sophomores (2); Freshmen (1).
Carolina starters by year group: Seniors (1); Juniors (1); Sophomores (2); Freshmen (1).

Duke's starting line-up of Thornton, Cook, Hood, Jefferson and Parker is just as young as Carolina's starting line-up of McDonald, McAdoo, Paige, Tokoto and Meeks.

UNC is a young team. It just so happens, Duke is starting a young lineup as well.

MartyClark
02-17-2014, 05:28 PM
Facts get in the way of your narrative.

Duke starters by year group: Seniors (1); Juniors (1); Sophomores (2); Freshmen (1).
Carolina starters by year group: Seniors (1); Juniors (1); Sophomores (2); Freshmen (1).

Duke's starting line-up of Thornton, Cook, Hood, Jefferson and Parker is just as young as Carolina's starting line-up of McDonald, McAdoo, Paige, Tokoto and Meeks.

Good point but I think I agree with Wheat that UNC benefits from the delayed game more than Duke. I'd like to see UNC get stomped tonight by FSU but don't think so.

jv001
02-17-2014, 05:29 PM
Good point but I think I agree with Wheat that UNC benefits from the delayed game more than Duke. I'd like to see UNC get stomped tonight by FSU but don't think so.

Marty, I'll take a one point win for FSU. GoDuke!

Henderson
02-17-2014, 05:49 PM
UNC is a young team...


UNC is a young team. It just so happens, Duke is starting a young lineup as well.

Neither of those statements is true. Neither starting lineup is "young", and UNC's is older.

Here are the ages of the presumptive UNC-CH and Duke starters:

UNC-CH

Paige -- 20
McAdoo -- 21
McDonald -- 23 (!)
Tokoto -- 20
Meeks -- 19

Average: 20.6

Duke

Cook -- 20
Thornton -- 21
Parker -- 18
Jefferson -- 20
Hood -- 21

Average: 20

If you substitute Rasheed or Matt for Tyler, the Duke average drops a bit below 20 years, but not by much.

oldnavy
02-18-2014, 05:22 AM
Neither of those statements is true. Neither starting lineup is "young", and UNC's is older.

Here are the ages of the presumptive UNC-CH and Duke starters:

UNC-CH

Paige -- 20
McAdoo -- 21
McDonald -- 23 (!)
Tokoto -- 20
Meeks -- 19

Average: 20.6

Duke

Cook -- 20
Thornton -- 21
Parker -- 18
Jefferson -- 20
Hood -- 21

Average: 20

If you substitute Rasheed or Matt for Tyler, the Duke average drops a bit below 20 years, but not by much.

We are over half way through the ACC season, I think the time for labeling either Duke or UNC as a "young team" has really played out at this point.

dukelifer
02-18-2014, 06:12 AM
We are over half way through the ACC season, I think the time for labeling either Duke or UNC as a "young team" has really played out at this point.

The key is how the teams handle the big rivalry game. It is really not clear that either team has an experience advantage - unlike last year. This game will be determined on the spot. This could be like the Syracuse game or a blowout either way. If Duke does not hit from deep- UNC will run out and have layups all night long. The key will be the guard play. Cook has not been confident and that is reason for concern. Paige is very confident and drives their show.This is a brutal stretch of games mentally. Not sure how this Duke team will react. But make no mistake about it- UNC is playing loose and can beat anyone. I agree they are not young anymore - they are a team learning how to win games. This snow postponement has hurt Duke much more than UNC and Duke's ability to play as a team with little rest will be truly tested. And then to have to put this game out of their mind and play Syracuse in a day - just brutal. The coaches have their work cut out for them.

Wheat/"/"/"
02-18-2014, 06:39 AM
I'm referencing young as a relative term regarding their basketball abilities. I wouldn't describe Parker as a young player, he's an exceptional player, even tho he's a freshman too. His game is very mature and polished already.

I'd describe Jefferson and Sulaimon as young and growing players, Jones too. Cook,Thornton, Hairston and Hood as experienced.

Sophomore Paige is an increasingly mature player, and McAdoo even as a junior still has upside left in his game both skill wise and mentally. McDonald and Simmons are experienced, but not high level talents.

The rest of the key players that UNC relies on for crunch time PT are freshman Britt, Meeks and some Hicks, along with undeveloped sophomore's Tokoto, Johnson, and some James. None of them, except maybe Johnson, expected to see this much prime time action early in their careers.

I continue to see them make inexperienced mistakes, mental ones.

I'm not making any excuses for them, just pointing out what I see. You guys are right, this late in the season they should not be making as many inexperienced plays...but that's why we are seeing them struggle at times.

UrinalCake
02-18-2014, 07:09 AM
The way I see it, Duke was due for a bad shooting night and they got it out of the way vs. Maryland. Had we shot that poorly against the Heels we would have lost by 10-15. So I see the delay as a positive for Duke (even though I am fully aware that the world doesn't work that way).

roywhite
02-18-2014, 08:11 AM
Along with the rivalry, the different playing styles of Duke and UNC make this interesting.

Looking at UNC, most recently their game at FSU:
they have improved on defense
they out-rebounded a big FSU team
even without offense from McAdoo, they are formidable inside; Meeks was 11-12 and Johnson 6-8
Paige has become a really good player -- scores, defends, sets up the inside game
Heels just don't have much 3-pt firepower; Paige was 3-8, Tokoto 0-1, and McDonald 0-4 from 3-pt vs FSU
they appear to have good chemistry and team morale

Duke---we're familiar with this year's style
an offensive juggernaut when 3-pt shots fall (and they normally do at a good percentage)
vulnerable to inside scoring
getting uneven play at PG
using depth more than most Coach K teams

Still have to give a slight nod to Duke here, but UNC has surprised/impressed me with their play over the last few weeks and could certainly get the win

My keys for Duke
shot selection, and take the 3-pt shots when available
defend Paige, not only as a shooter, but especially as a penetrator and distributor

jacone21
02-18-2014, 08:36 AM
Along with the rivalry, the different playing styles of Duke and UNC make this interesting.

defend Paige, not only as a shooter, but especially as a penetrator and distributor

This is the key... but easier said than done. He looked really good down the stretch last night. Despite playing JJ minutes, he had more energy than anyone else on the floor at winning time. Just took over. The basketball IQ is there too.

So how do we defend him? Patrick Davidson is not walking through that door.

brevity
02-18-2014, 09:09 AM
Patrick Davidson is not walking through that door.

Patrick Davidson doesn't use doors. He crashes through walls, like the Kool-Aid Man (https://www.teepublic.com/show/7787-kool-aid-man-wrecking-ball). Oh yeah!

ESPN put up an odd graphic this morning while plugging this game. They mentioned that in the last 85 games, UNC leads 43-42 in wins, but Duke leads 6,566-6,564 in points. (Thank you, Austin Rivers. Or Jeff Capel. Or anyone who's made a 3-pointer or 3-point play.)

My question: why 85 games? Coach K has led Duke against UNC in 76 games. The dividing line seems arbitrary. I'm guessing their crack research team looked for a stopping point where the numbers would be closest. Just another attempt by ESPN to get neutral viewers to drink the...

FerryFor50
02-18-2014, 09:18 AM
We are over half way through the ACC season, I think the time for labeling either Duke or UNC as a "young team" has really played out at this point.

I think when Wheat says "young" he really means "reads on a 3rd grade level."

All kidding aside, UNC is a good team, but they play really boneheaded at times. That's partly the players, mostly on the coach. Roy doesn't seem especially focused or "in-tune" with this season, as he's still sulking about losing PJ.

This game will be interesting. UNC has some size and is #15 in defensive efficiency in Kenpom, but only 59th in offense.

Duke is #1 in offense, but #78 in defense.

If Duke shoots like they did against Maryland, UNC wins this handily.

If Duke can hit their shots and drive a bit to get some of the bigs in foul trouble, Duke wins big.

The key to beating UNC is to focus the defense on Paige and make others beat you. And keep UNC off the offensive glass.

FerryFor50
02-18-2014, 09:23 AM
ESPN put up an odd graphic this morning while plugging this game. They mentioned that in the last 85 games, UNC leads 43-42 in wins, but Duke leads 6,566-6,564 in points. (Thank you, Austin Rivers. Or Jeff Capel. Or anyone who's made a 3-pointer or 3-point play.)


3932

ESPN just picked the arbitrary 85 game number to make the points seem closer to add drama.

roywhite
02-18-2014, 09:33 AM
I think when Wheat says "young" he really means "reads on a 3rd grade level."
All kidding aside, UNC is a good team, but they play really boneheaded at times. That's partly the players, mostly on the coach. Roy doesn't seem especially focused or "in-tune" with this season, as he's still sulking about losing PJ.

This game will be interesting. UNC has some size and is #15 in defensive efficiency in Kenpom, but only 59th in offense.

Duke is #1 in offense, but #78 in defense.

If Duke shoots like they did against Maryland, UNC wins this handily.

If Duke can hit their shots and drive a bit to get some of the bigs in foul trouble, Duke wins big.

The key to beating UNC is to focus the defense on Paige and make others beat you. And keep UNC off the offensive glass.

Hilarious opening comment.

Rest of the analysis looks about right to me; we are seeking to produce reactions of befuddlement, anger, and distress on Roy's face. If Duke delivers, he'll do his part.

Dukehky
02-18-2014, 10:07 AM
Hilarious opening comment.

Rest of the analysis looks about right to me; we are seeking to produce reactions of befuddlement, anger, and distress on Roy's face. If Duke delivers, he'll do his part.

Meeks played really well last night against a big team, we just can't let him catch the ball with a foot in the lane, because he is skilled enough to finish most of the time in there. Just gotta try and make McAdon't shoot jumpers and cover Paige like a blanket, and since I think Rasheed is probably the best PG on ball defender in the league, I like our chances to contain him a bit. Gang rebounding all night. We need everyone to hit the defensive glass hard.

I remember reading in another thread that Marshall has some pretty horrendous defensive rebounding stats. While that may be true, he boxes out like crazy. He puts his backside on somebody and moves them out of the way, allowing Jabari or Amile or Rodney to go get the ball and start the break. Marshall's next step of course will be to be able to both box out then 'pursue the pumpkin' but right now, he's doing a pretty damn good job when he's in there, at least IMO. I think that if he played more minutes, he would probably mess up more, so I'm good with him getting 5-7 a game, but he should never play less than that. I was surprised he didn't get more minutes against Maryland to be honest, especially to provide some kind of deterrent to Wells driving the lane, but whatever we won.

oldnavy
02-18-2014, 11:42 AM
Just made my biannual bet with my UNC buddy... after listening to how Duke was too scared to travel to CH last week in that light dusting of snow, he wanted 10 points...

I ended up giving him 5.5, which I feel pretty good about.

Although UNC is playing much better now, I still think that we have a much better team overall.... I just hope our shots are falling if not, I will be forking over a sampling of his favorite beverage.

Wheat/"/"/"
02-18-2014, 01:25 PM
All kidding aside, UNC is a good team, but they play really boneheaded at times. That's partly the players, mostly on the coach. Roy doesn't seem especially focused or "in-tune" with this season, as he's still sulking about losing PJ.


It's obvious that no matter how good Roy coaches some of you guys won't give him any credit.

He's done a great job in the face of some real challenges with this team.

It was laughable earlier when some said he was mailing it in, and it's laughable now to say he's not focused, "in-tune" or sulking.

I will agree they make some boneheaded plays, but they are steadily making fewer of them.

As far as I'm concerned, Roy Williams is an outstanding coach and UNC is lucky to have him.

flyingdutchdevil
02-18-2014, 01:34 PM
It's obvious that no matter how good Roy coaches some of you guys won't give him any credit.

He's done a great job in the face of some real challenges with this team.

It was laughable earlier when some said he was mailing it in, and it's laughable now to say he's not focused, "in-tune" or sulking.

I will agree they make some boneheaded plays, but they are steadily making fewer of them.

As far as I'm concerned, Roy Williams is an outstanding coach and UNC is lucky to have him.

Given what UNC has done in the last 8 games or so, it's tough to disagree with Wheat on this one. However, I don't think it's out of line to say that RoyWill took a fairly long time to figure the team out. So long, in fact, that he is going to put UNC in a pretty bad seed come tourney time. I guess some will blame it on the "young team", just like some will blame Duke's mediocre first half of the season on the "young team".

However, I think the coach is primarily responsible in both cases. Hell, even Coach K said he needed to do a better job after the Clemson game. And you know what? He did. Just like RoyWill.

What is irregular about Coach K is that he took a long time to get this team in the right direction. Obviously, he had valid reasons, but it took a long time nonetheless. RoyWill was just all over the place. The team played some of the best basketball in the country during some games and then some of the worst. It was very, very strange. At least Duke was mediocre for a good portion of the season before becoming good and then really good. It was progressive. UNC went from okay to bad to great to bad to good to really bad to good. Isn't the coach mainly to blame for that inconsistency for the first half of the season?

Kedsy
02-18-2014, 01:56 PM
It's obvious that no matter how good Roy coaches some of you guys won't give him any credit.

He's done a great job in the face of some real challenges with this team.

I agree with Wheat. Far as I'm concerned, this season is Roy's best coaching job since his 2006 team, and I say that because both this year's team and 2006 weren't nearly as talented as other Heel editions. But he's got them winning despite the fact that they just aren't that good. To me, that's good coaching.


Given what UNC has done in the last 8 games or so, it's tough to disagree with Wheat on this one. However, I don't think it's out of line to say that RoyWill took a fairly long time to figure the team out.

I don't know. UNC beat three top 5 teams between late November and mid-December. Doesn't seem like it took Roy so long to figure things out.

Billy Dat
02-18-2014, 02:00 PM
It's obvious that no matter how good Roy coaches some of you guys won't give him any credit.
He's done a great job in the face of some real challenges with this team.
It was laughable earlier when some said he was mailing it in, and it's laughable now to say he's not focused, "in-tune" or sulking.
I will agree they make some boneheaded plays, but they are steadily making fewer of them.
As far as I'm concerned, Roy Williams is an outstanding coach and UNC is lucky to have him.

The Pitt game was the first Carolina game I have watched recently (since pre conference) and I came away very impressed.

What I saw justifies their top 15 KenPom defensive ranking. They really protect the rim with Johnson and McAdoo being particular standouts. I think Paige's length on defense creates problems and, Meeks aside, they have solid athleticism and are playing the passing lanes better than any UNC team I have seen recently.

All of that is hugely important because this team needs turnovers so that it can get out and run, run, run. That is not an original UNC formula, but it is vital with this team because their half court offense is really stymied by a lack of 3 point shooting. Paige can stroke it, but the rest of the offense seems geared around missing and attacking the offensive glass with ferocity. Obviously, Roy knows what he is doing when it comes to entering the ball into the post, this is again aided by Paige's height, and McAdoo was doing a really nice job with his post moves and face up jumpers.

Bottom line, they are deadly around the rim on both ends, and they seem to have real desperation to get out and run because god help if they have to score from the line. I think they are so hungry about finishing because they want to make sure they are shooting an "And 1" rather than 2.

They are playing to their strengths and playing well. I was impressed.

Keys for Duke:
-Shoot well, natch.
-Make them play half court chuck it from the cheap seats
-Limit second chance points
-Limit turnovers and resulting runouts

jv001
02-18-2014, 02:05 PM
I hate to admit it, but I believe that old roy has done a good job getting the heels on the right track. Like Kedsy, I don't think the tarheels are really that talented but roy has them playing very well and I believe the schedule has helped as well. What I'm anxious to see is will old roy start to warm up the bus if they begin to lose some games. You know, that bus he throws his players under, :cool: GoDuke!

Kfanarmy
02-18-2014, 02:10 PM
I thought a month and a half ago, that UNC's greatest problem was one of consistency--mental toughness and experience--to perform at a high level day in and day out. Duke's big problem was Defense...it seemed they were allowing anyone with a ball to get through the perimeter and to the Rim for a two or FTs. I'd say UNC has come farther in fixing the consistency issue, they've had a couple games where they had to overcome slow starts and opponent rally's at the end of the game, but they've kept poise and fought through for W's. Duke's defense has improved, but I'm not sure how much...believe KP has them at 78, a slight improvement over where they were. I think this is a very difficult game to predict. Carolina's interior D has them in the top 20 for defensive efficiency, Duke's offense is top two. UNCs offense is 59th and Dukes D is 78. UNC has homefield advantage. Anything could happen in this game IMO.

Kedsy
02-18-2014, 02:24 PM
I think Paige's length on defense creates problems...

...

Obviously, Roy knows what he is doing when it comes to entering the ball into the post, this is again aided by Paige's height...

Is Paige unusually long or tall? He's listed at 6'1" and he's never struck me as having particularly long arms or anything. What am I missing?

Olympic Fan
02-18-2014, 03:25 PM
I was just thinking today that no matter what happens Thursday night, the story that "Duke was too scared to play UNC in the snow" is going to enter the lore of the rivalry. 50 years from now, UNC fans that weren't alive when it happened will be repeating that meme.

My question is whether or not the outcome of Thursday night's makeup will have any impact on the UNC outrage over the postponement?

I mean, if Duke wins are we going to be subjected to endless rants that, "If we had played you last week with all the students surrounding the court, we would have won"?

Or if UNC wins, will the outrage die down a bit (I'm sure there will be a few snarky, "We would have beat you worse last week" comments)?

-- Or no matter what happens Thursday night, if Duke loses to 'Cuse Saturday night, will be have Duke fans moaning that we lost because we had to play UNC 48 hours earlier?

ncexnyc
02-18-2014, 03:42 PM
A month ago I was mentally cleaning out my fridge thinking where I would put all the drinks that I’d be winning from betting on the heel game. Now I’m concerned, very concerned.

I believe the game will play out one of two ways:
Scenario 1:
UNC comes out overhyped and throws up brick after brick, meanwhile we hit several threes and it snowballs from there turning into a complete rout.

Scenario 2:
UNC comes out hot, we make a run to stay with them, however near the end of the second half one of our top players fouls out and they pull away on free throws, while we brick three after three and they end up with a 7-9 point win.

Billy Dat
02-18-2014, 03:50 PM
Is Paige unusually long or tall? He's listed at 6'1" and he's never struck me as having particularly long arms or anything. What am I missing?

You're right, I think his thin stature made me assume he was taller. Kedsy, your fact checking is remarkable. Had the New Republic had you on their masthead, "Shattered Glass" surely would never have made it to the silver screen.

Kedsy
02-18-2014, 04:11 PM
I mean, if Duke wins are we going to be subjected to endless rants that, "If we had played you last week with all the students surrounding the court, we would have won"?

I sure hope so. I love the idea of Tar Heels gnashing their teeth over such idiotic tripe.


-- Or no matter what happens Thursday night, if Duke loses to 'Cuse Saturday night, will [w]e have Duke fans moaning that we lost because we had to play UNC 48 hours earlier?

Naturally, which will be very unpleasant since absent an injury or something it won't possibly be true. So I vote for avoiding the issue by winning both games. Who's with me?

roywhite
02-18-2014, 04:21 PM
I sure hope so. I love the idea of Tar Heels gnashing their teeth over such idiotic tripe.

Naturally, which will be very unpleasant since absent an injury or something it won't possibly be true. So I vote for avoiding the issue by winning both games. Who's with me?

Count me in, not just for winning both games, but also for "Tar Heels gnashing their teeth over such idiotic tripe" -- they seem to have a talent for it.

But on winning Thursday and Saturday, apart from beating our rival and a new rival, I love the lesson K will be able to impart come tournament time. At the ACC Tournament, he can remind the guys how they made it through 3 games in 5 days, with 2 of the 3 on the road. And, for an NCAA regional final weekend, what better example of already having experienced a tough Thursday/Saturday turnaround against good opponents.

BluDvlsN1
02-18-2014, 04:45 PM
The postponement of the game has elicited a lot of discussion on both sides.
I was on those roads, I made it to unc prior to the cancellation, the way people were driving
Our team had no business being on the road, even for 6 miles. it was high risk going and in particular getting back.

I love Duke for a lot of reasons, not the least of which is that ability to make the student/athelete's
well being a first priority,it was as usual a good call.

Had the game been played against a student seeded crowd, that would have been an anomaly for nc in that game.
If thats what they want to see then it should be a matter of course on a continuous basis as it is in CIS.

Our outside shooting versus Maryland was an abberation I believe due at least in part to the physical nature of that game.
What we learned prior to the re-schedule was how to win without our normal 3 point production.

What we saw last night with Fla St v unc was that, Roy still hasn't figured out how to use a timeout to slow a run. But more importantly they (unc)figured out how to win without JMM's points and energy.
That is significant for them.

I see the game as I saw it before the snow, CARnage, and postponement.
A typical Duke v nc battle with Duke winning for all the excellent reasons already posted.

Even if they infer we need a "better coach"!
I'm all for the rivalry and I get supporting your team, it's just incomprehensible that even an ardent fan
won't/can't recognize excellence and contributions to the sport, pretty shallow thinking.

Wheat/"/"/"
02-18-2014, 05:25 PM
Is Paige unusually long or tall? He's listed at 6'1" and he's never struck me as having particularly long arms or anything. What am I missing?

He seems to have a long reach, regardless of what his measurements are. Maybe that's just perception, but I've always felt like he plays "long" too.

luvdahops
02-18-2014, 06:50 PM
I agree with Wheat. Far as I'm concerned, this season is Roy's best coaching job since his 2006 team, and I say that because both this year's team and 2006 weren't nearly as talented as other Heel editions. But he's got them winning despite the fact that they just aren't that good. To me, that's good coaching.



I don't know. UNC beat three top 5 teams between late November and mid-December. Doesn't seem like it took Roy so long to figure things out.

Agreed on both counts. I actually thought Roy did a very good coaching job last year, too. You could argue that maybe it took him too long to go to the 4-guard lineup and to give PJ starters minutes, but Johnson and some of the other bigs played decently in non-conference, and time has shown that reliability has never been Hairston's strong suit. Also worth noting that we often give K credit for similar mid-season shifts (Eliot Williams in 2009, the line change/rotation tweaking this year).

moonpie23
02-18-2014, 07:22 PM
As far as I'm concerned, Roy Williams is an outstanding coach and UNC is lucky to have him.

since coach K is already taken, there's no shame in settling for Roy….

jipops
02-18-2014, 10:08 PM
I agree with Wheat. Far as I'm concerned, this season is Roy's best coaching job since his 2006 team, and I say that because both this year's team and 2006 weren't nearly as talented as other Heel editions. But he's got them winning despite the fact that they just aren't that good. To me, that's good coaching.



I don't know. UNC beat three top 5 teams between late November and mid-December. Doesn't seem like it took Roy so long to figure things out.

Roy deserves some credit but I think you're discounting how good this team is. They have numerous weapons inside, players with flaws, but plenty of size and options. With Paige they have one of the best guards in the conference and productive athleticism in Tokoto. By UNC standards this may be an ok team but for everyone else this is a very dangerous and still talented group.

I think we're going to have problems matching up in this one. We simply have to hit a high rate of 3's to counter all the 2's they'll get inside, else it's going to be a rough night.

Kfanarmy
02-18-2014, 10:24 PM
Neither of those statements is true. Neither starting lineup is "young", and UNC's is older.

Here are the ages of the presumptive UNC-CH and Duke starters:

UNC-CH

Paige -- 20
McAdoo -- 21
McDonald -- 23 (!)
Tokoto -- 20
Meeks -- 19

Average: 20.6

Duke

Cook -- 20
Thornton -- 21
Parker -- 18
Jefferson -- 20
Hood -- 21

Average: 20

If you substitute Rasheed or Matt for Tyler, the Duke average drops a bit below 20 years, but not by much. So what is YOUR standard...If we're talking about young, as in year group, I'd say they are young. If we're talking physical age, average around 20.... or sophomores this time of year...I still think that's pretty young for both teams.

awhom111
02-18-2014, 11:48 PM
Here are the ACC Network affiliates for the game since some people prefer to have their announcers instead of ESPN and this iteration of the television deal means more choices for this game:
http://www.theacc.com/#!/news-detail/ACC-Network-Affiliates-for-ACCMBB-Duke-at-North-Carolina_02-07-14_dlj5ax

Kedsy
02-19-2014, 12:40 AM
Roy deserves some credit but I think you're discounting how good this team is. They have numerous weapons inside, players with flaws, but plenty of size and options. With Paige they have one of the best guards in the conference and productive athleticism in Tokoto. By UNC standards this may be an ok team but for everyone else this is a very dangerous and still talented group.

I think we're going to have problems matching up in this one. We simply have to hit a high rate of 3's to counter all the 2's they'll get inside, else it's going to be a rough night.

I have noticed that you always overrate UNC. I'm not sure if you do it just to temper your expectations for Duke or what, but there it is.

Paige has certainly had a good year, but if you look at the stats (http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/compare?add=marcus-paige&p1=quinn-cook), his are very similar to Quinn Cook's (Paige plays more minutes than Quinn and gets to the line more, and Quinn has a better a/to ratio), and, ironically, despite stats very similar to "one of the best guards in the conference," people around here seem to think Quinn is on the verge of losing his place in our rotation.

Our frontcourt of Jabari, Amile, Rodney, and Marshall certainly isn't overwhelmed statistically by McAdoo, Meeks, Johnson, and James; in fact, I think we have an advantage. Other than Meeks over Amile they don't even have a size advantage. And our backcourt of Quinn, Rasheed, Tyler, and Andre is worlds better than Paige, McDonald, Tokoto, and Britt.

So we don't have to "hit a high rate of 3's" -- our normal rate will do just fine. If both teams do what they normally do, Duke will win. The only way UNC wins is if they play over their head and we tank -- which admittedly in a rivalry game is always possible. But don't pretend like the teams have similar talent. Duke is way more talented than UNC.

JPtheGame
02-19-2014, 12:52 AM
Here's a fun question to attack strangers on the internet over; If Duke can only win one of these next two games (of course we hope and believe they will win both), which game do you want?
Knocking of number 1 is pretty sweet but this is unc-ch we are talking about.
Thoughts?

ice-9
02-19-2014, 01:33 AM
Roy deserves some credit but I think you're discounting how good this team is. They have numerous weapons inside, players with flaws, but plenty of size and options. With Paige they have one of the best guards in the conference and productive athleticism in Tokoto. By UNC standards this may be an ok team but for everyone else this is a very dangerous and still talented group.

I think we're going to have problems matching up in this one. We simply have to hit a high rate of 3's to counter all the 2's they'll get inside, else it's going to be a rough night.

If there's ever a game that Duke plays three bigs at a time, would this be it? Marshall, Amile and Parker taking on whatever combination of Meeks, James, Brice, McAdoo and Tokoto. For some reason I am concerned about Rodney's ability to block out and get rebounds. Rodney moves to the perimeter with Rasheed or Quinn running point. If we limit their offensive rebounds and swarm the perimeter with taller and still-quick players, we might be able to completely shut down their offense.

Not that I actually expect this line-up to play, but might be worth a couple minutes of experimentation.

ice-9
02-19-2014, 01:39 AM
Here's a fun question to attack strangers on the internet over; If Duke can only win one of these next two games (of course we hope and believe they will win both), which game do you want?
Knocking of number 1 is pretty sweet but this is unc-ch we are talking about.
Thoughts?

If I had to choose one, it'd be Syracuse. Reasons:
- We protect Cameron
- They're #1 and undefeated
- We get another shot at UNC

Brockt10
02-19-2014, 06:20 AM
Anyone know why K went away From heavy substitution in the second half of the gt game? The guys played a lot better when K was doing 5 man subs in the first half.

tbyers11
02-19-2014, 07:01 AM
Anyone know why K went away From heavy substitution in the second half of the gt game? The guys played a lot better when K was doing 5 man subs in the first half.

IMO, he moved away from the full 5 man line change subs because it wasn't very effective either time at the beginning of the half. We started out 12-3 in the first half with the starters and then stalled a bit. In the second half, the starters played amazing D in the first 4 minutes. But the 2nd 5 man unit had several bad possessions and played less than 2 minutes before subs came in.

I feel that all of the subs had some very good moments (Semi's garbage time was not really telling) during the game but I think that both times the initial 5 man change happened we had a noticeable drop off in play. The 5 man shift probably would have gotten more time had it been as successful as it was vs NCST or Miami.

Jbsherr DUKE!
02-19-2014, 07:07 AM
Anyone know why K went away From heavy substitution in the second half of the gt game? The guys played a lot better when K was doing 5 man subs in the first half.

I think it's very simple the Blue team doesn't have a consitant scoring threat. I love Cook but unlike Sheed who is now starting instead of coming in with the line change at this time isn't as productive ( nagging injury/confidence?) Yes Dawkins is very valuable weapon and Jones is tough on D but remember still a true freshman. Josh is going to grab some boards and maybe a charge and Marshell isn't as effective without Sheed penetrating the lane. Cook is very capable of leading the 2nd just as Sheed did earlier but right now/lastnight just wasen't effective. It did allow the starters to rest some but Tech took advantage of the line changes. I liked how K worked in Jones and Marshell through out the 2nd half without the whole line change. I know Tyler has taken some heat on this board over the past four years but at this point I love him starting beside Sheed. They both play on ball D and with our other starting 4 Tyler doesn't need to score nor do we need him to either. When he does shoot he is hitting about 50% of his 3's and he is smart with the ball does not rush things, brings leadership to the floor and makes smart passes. Enough with this, here is to Thursdsy at @
9 GTHC and Goooooooo Duke!!!

BlueDevilBrowns
02-19-2014, 07:54 AM
But don't pretend like the teams have similar talent. Duke is way more talented than UNC.

This is so very true.

Another way to look at would be if you were going to draft a team off of a pool of both team's rosters. Looking at it without Duke-Blue colored glasses, the top 10(taking into account talent/production/impact) would go in this order:

1. Parker - DU
2. Hood - DU
3. Paige - UNC
4. JMM - UNC
5. Sulaimon - DU
6. Amile - DU
7. Cook - DU
8. Johnson - UNC
9. Dawkins - DU
10. TT - DU

***NOTE*** I'm not a "stat-head" kinda guy so I based my evaluations mostly off what I've observed this year watching both teams peformances(although I did take basic stats into consideration like pts, rbs, assts, etc.).

So that's seven Duke players in the top 10, three in the top 5, and the first 2 picks. I would argue that not only are Parker and Hood the top 2 players, they are by a WIDE margin.

The gap in talent/production/impact between Hood and Paige is as wide, if not wider, than the gap between Paige and Tyler.

This allows for Duke to have a much larger margin for error than UNC does. Doesn't mean we're guaranteed to win(see Austin Rivers' game at UNC when UNC clearly was the more talented team that year) but I think a reasonable person would say we are "likely" to win Thursday.

Just my $00.02 :)