Checking up on JD and Stanford

[JasonEvans]

There was an old thread that dated back to 2008 or something like that on this so I figured it was time for a new thread that focused on this current season, which is oh so important for Dawkins' career at Stanford. About a month ago, Tommy wrote...


I was going to post the other day that I thought Johnny was in real trouble, Stanford having dropped their first two games of the Pac-12 schedule, to Cal at home and then to lousy Oregon State, to sit at 9-5 overall, 0-2 in the league, with the only solid non-conference win being over UConn.

But then today the Cardinal came up with a great effort and, despite trying to give the game away in the last 30 seconds by missing multiple free throws, they beat the Ducks in Oregon this afternoon. This is an Oregon team that was ranked #10 in the nation before they hit the skids, as this is their third straight loss. But still, good quality win for Johnny's guys, on the road. They have to gain some consistency and can't suffer any more losses to teams like Oregon State, I don't care where they play. Johnny's got to get to the tournament this year, and with only one solid non conference win, going 9-9 in a league like the Pac-12 is unlikely to cut it. Here's hoping they use today's win as a springboard to a nice winning streak.

Since the Jan 12th win over Oregon, Stanford has been playing really well. As noted in the Bill Walton thread, they beat Cal this week. That win marked their 6th win in their past 8 games. The only losses in that time have been at UCLA (no shame in that) and a hard fought game with Arizona that Stanford dropped 60-57. Certainly nothing wrong with that loss.

Stanford is currently 6-4 in the Pac12 and tied for 3rd in the league. The problem is that there is a massive logjam in the middle of the standings. There are 6 teams with 4 losses in the conference. It is really hard to separate yourself from the pack. But, Stanford is in a very good spot and if the NCAA tourney were to happen today, I am pretty confident they would make it (likely as about a #8-#10 seed).

Joe Lunardi currently has Stanford as a #9 seed, playing #8 seed UNC in the first round. He has them in the same bracket at Duke, tough we could not play until the Final 8. I think there is zero chance the NCAA puts Duke and UNC into the same bracket.

Stanford's upcoming schedule the next couple weeks is key. They have the weekend off and then next week they will travel to UDub on Wednesday and Wash State on Saturday. Washington is one of those middle-of-the-pack teams battling Stanford. A win there would be tremendous. WSU is terrible, one of the worst teams in the conference, so that could be a nice road win. The following week has UCLA (very good, 2nd in the league) and USC (very bad, last in the conference) visiting Stanford. If the Cardinal can go 3-1 over these next 4 games, I think they are pretty darn close to being a NCAA tourney lock (barring a total collapse).

Johnny has a very nice recruiting class coming in next year (headed up by former Duke recruit Reid Travis) but he likely needs to make the NCAAs this year in order to get a chance to coach those kids. I am sure many of you will be joining me in keeping a close eye on how they are doing and rooting for one of our most beloved Dukies to bring them even more success!

-Jason "I'd love for JD to make the whole 'who is going to succeed K?' debate a bit tougher" Evans

[Wander]

Also nice that UConn is back in the rankings - Stanford's best nonconference (or any) win.

[hurleyfor3]

Joe Lunardi currently has Stanford as a #9 seed, playing #8 seed UNC in the first round. He has them in the same bracket at Duke, tough we could not play until the Final 8. I think there is zero chance the NCAA puts Duke and UNC into the same bracket.

Lunardi's reality check just bounced. He has us playing Vermont. Oops.

Fun fact: Stanford and Harvard are consecutively ranked in Pomeroy, 34th and 35th.

[BigWayne]

Listened to the post game interview with Mike Montgomery on the Cal broadcast on the way home last night. He was saying positive things about the Stanford team that had just beat him, but his explanation for his team's poor showing was pathetic. It was if he had nothing to do with the team and was just an SID or something. Cal and Stanford have a week off until they both head up to play the Washington teams. Montgomery sounded like he was going to spend it trying to figure out how to rearrange his team. Certainly seems like Stanford is on it's way up and Cal is headed in the other direction, despite the win over Arizona. In fact, MM's comments last night on the Arizona win was along the lines of they got lucky that Arizona played in a way that suited Cal's strengths and neglected to attack their weaknesses. Basically admitting that Arizona should have beat them easily if they would have just played correctly.

[JasonEvans]

Stanford's upcoming schedule the next couple weeks is key. They have the weekend off and then next week they will travel to UDub on Wednesday and Wash State on Saturday. Washington is one of those middle-of-the-pack teams battling Stanford. A win there would be tremendous. WSU is terrible, one of the worst teams in the conference, so that could be a nice road win. The following week has UCLA (very good, 2nd in the league) and USC (very bad, last in the conference) visiting Stanford. If the Cardinal can go 3-1 over these next 4 games, I think they are pretty darn close to being a NCAA tourney lock (barring a total collapse).


Sigh... in case you missed it, Stanford was leading Washington almost the entire second half -- most by only a possession or two -- but ended up losing the game late. As I said, that would have been a huge, huge win for them. Instead, they now need to beat that bad WSt team this weekend and may even need to take care of UCLA at home next week.

-Jason "golden opportunity slipped thru their fingers" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Keeping this thread up to date...

Huge, huge win yesterday for JD and his Cardinal against UCLA. They are now 9-5 in the Pac12 and 18-8 overall. With 2 weeks left in the regular season, they have 4 remaining games: @ ASU, @Az, and then home with Utah and Colorado. Utah is not very good. ASU and Colorado have resumes very similar to Stanford -- all three appear to be in the tourney right now but could falter and fall out.

Stanford is in good shape right now in the computer rankings. They are #29 in Pomeroy and #40 in the RPI. They have no truly horrible losses and several pretty nice wins. They are 5-6 versus the RPI top 50. I'd say that if the tourney started today they might be as high as a #7 seed, but more likely a #8. Still, it is a good situation to be in. But, there is work still to be done.

I think the formula for reaching the NCAA tourney is pretty simple -- if they win 2 of their final 4 and don't do something truly awful in the Pac 12 tourney, they should be in. This coming week is huge with the two road games against the two Zona teams. Win even one of those and it is pretty hard to find a way for the committee to leave Stanford out.

-Jason "good stuff for JD! I want him to have a solid chance to coach those great recruits he has coming in next season!" Evans

[JasonEvans]

With 2 weeks left in the regular season, they have 4 remaining games: @ ASU, @Az, and then home with Utah and Colorado.

I think the formula for reaching the NCAA tourney is pretty simple -- if they win 2 of their final 4 and don't do something truly awful in the Pac 12 tourney, they should be in. This coming week is huge with the two road games against the two Zona teams. Win even one of those and it is pretty hard to find a way for the committee to leave Stanford out.

Sigh... one game down and one more loss for the Cardinal. They fell last night to ASU and it wasn't all that close of a game as ASU had a double digit lead for much of the contest. Huge game at Arizona coming up this weekend. Pretty hard to see Stanford winning that one. The pressure will be back on next week to win both games and get that NCAA bid pretty firmly in hand.

-Jason "I had high hopes after the UCLA game that Stanford could take ASU... oh well" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Huge game at Arizona coming up this weekend. Pretty hard to see Stanford winning that one.

8pm tonight is the Arizona game. Staford is just on the good side of the bubble right now. Win this game and they are dancing, for certain. Big moment!

-Jason "a win would also help Duke in the quest for a #1 seed!" Evans

[tommy]

Jason, you must feel like I do with the Bubble Rap thread -- that you're talking to yourself on your thread, cuz nobody else is commenting! At least as to this thread, though, it's not true. I'm following Johnny D out here fairly closely, and though I'll be at UCLA-Oregon State tonight, will definitely have an eye on the Stanford-Zona score. Agree, if the Cardinal can pull it off, they're in, but I frankly don't see it happening. Arizona is always tough in McKale, and I think they've figured out pretty well how to play without Ashley. Their Achilles heel is their depth. If you can get em in foul trouble, or run em to the point of fatigue, they can be had. But otherwise, they seem to me to be a very solid club, one with as good a chance as any to go all the way. In fact, if I had to choose one team to put my money on to go all the way, gun to the head, it'd probably be them.

Even with a loss, Johnny is in pretty good shape. They are at 43 in the RPI, with four top-50 wins. Take care of business at home next weekend against Colorado (RPI 30) and Utah, which would get them to 20 wins, I gotta believe they'd be in. Of course, a Pac-12 tourney win would ice it in those circumstances too.

What do you think?

[DukieInBrasil]

No luck for Johnny D and the Cardinal tonight, but they still have a solid chance of winning enough games to make the tourney.

[JasonEvans]

Even with a loss, Johnny is in pretty good shape. They are at 43 in the RPI, with four top-50 wins. Take care of business at home next weekend against Colorado (RPI 30) and Utah, which would get them to 20 wins, I gotta believe they'd be in. Of course, a Pac-12 tourney win would ice it in those circumstances too.

What do you think?

What I said a week ago still holds true. With 4 games to play (2 at the Zonas and 2 at home), I stated that Stanford needed to win 2 of the 4 to feel good about getting in. After losing the first 2, neither of which was a bad loss, I think that still holds true. To some extent, the Colorado game this week is a little bit of a playoff between two teams close to the bubble. I think Colorado is in slightly better shape than Stanford -- slightly better RPI, slightly better overall record -- but I see the winner of that game as pretty much stamping a ticket to the dance. The loser, especially if it is Stanford, may need to get something done in the Pac 12 tourney to feel really safe.

So, what stands between Johnny's boys and a date in the dance is a home game against a top 30 RPI opponent. C'mon Stanford!!

-Jason "in the end, I bet both Colorado and Stanford make the dance. the Pac 12 is getting 5 or maybe 6 teams in" Evans

[BigWayne]

Cal, Stanford, Colorado, and Utah are all pretty much lumped statistically fairly even in the P12 conference race and in the RPI. Due to the scheduling scheme the P12 uses, Colorado and Utah both finish up the season with a road trip to the bay area against Cal and Stanford. So we have essentially a mini tournament with any team going 2-0 this weekend in the group having an inside track for an NCAA bid. If you throw out conference doormat USC, Utah and Colorado have a combined one road win (in OT by one point) in the conference this year, so you have to like the chances of Cal and Stanford
to go 2-0 and make their cases for bids.

[tommy]

Well, Stanford got beat at home last night by Colorado. That's three straight L's for Johnny's boys down the stretch. All were to pretty good (or better) teams, but still. They have Utah to close the regular season, but with their win over Cal last night, the Utes are very much in the hunt for a bid as well, so they'll be highly motivated.

Johnny really, really needs to win this game. Really.

[sagegrouse]

Stanford held on a for a win, with Dwight Powell making a FT with 36 seconds left. Utah never got off a shot afterwards.

JD and Stanford finish the regular season at 19-11, 10-8 in the PAC-12.

Lunardi had the Cardinal a #10 seed after its loss to Colorado, so maybe JD will make the NCAAs for the first time.

[JasonEvans]

Stanford held on a for a win, with Dwight Powell making a FT with 36 seconds left. Utah never got off a shot afterwards.

JD and Stanford finish the regular season at 19-11, 10-8 in the PAC-12.

Lunardi had the Cardinal a #10 seed after its loss to Colorado, so maybe JD will make the NCAAs for the first time.

Stanford got their 20th win of the season last night over Wash State. WSU is not very good and I suspect that a loss in that game could have been bubble-bursting for JD and his kids. But, it seems extremely likely that JD is assured of his first NCAA tourney with this latest victory. The Cardinal are now #42 in KenPom and 46 in the RPI. While they would drop with a loss in their next game, it is hard to see them dropping out of the tourney.

Tonight is Arizona St, a team Stanford beat at home and lost to on the road. Currently, Lunardi has ASU as a #9 seed and Stanford as a #10. A win in the Pac12 quarters over ASU would likely boost Stanford a seed line or two and opens up the possibility of a real jump if they could also beat the UCLA/Oregon winner to make the Pac12 finals. I know, I know, I am getting ahead of myself. Beat ASU first...

-Jason "seeming very likely that Johnny will get to coach Reid Travis and the rest of his strong recruiting class next season" Evans

[tommy]

HUUUUUUGE win for Johnny tonite over ASU! HUUUUGE! So excited for him and his guys.

[sporthenry]

Stanford up 18 with 4 minutes left against ASU. That should make Stanford a lock. Maybe it is b/c I've watched an abnormal amount of these games b/c of JD but they have some talent. Probably should have been better than 10-8 in conference but with Randle, Huestis, and Powell, they could make some noise next week. Bracket Matrix has them as a 10 right now. Imagine they'll be in that 7-10 range. Probably almost better as a 10 compared to 8/9 but against the right 1 or 2 seed, they could be a nice upset. They'll avoid Arizona and if they avoid Florida, I give them a puncher's chance.

[ChillinDuke]

HUUUUUUGE win for Johnny tonite over ASU! HUUUUGE! So excited for him and his guys.

Boom!

Big time.

They're dancin' in Palo Alto, I reckon.

- Chillin

[OZ]

Boom!

Big time.

They're dancin' in Palo Alto, I reckon.

- Chillin

Dang. I was still watching the game 74 -53 Stanford, with 2 minutes left. I didn't know it had been called!

[OZ]

Final: Stanford 79 ASU 58

[Grey Devil]

Only got to see the second half of tonight's game, but Johnny's team just dominated Sendak's ASU squad. If Johnny can keep them playing at that level they are going to do some serious damage to other teams' tourney hopes!

Grey Devil

[Billy Dat]

If this win lock up Johnny's first bid, I hope its the kind of monkey-off-back that will free him up to return Stanford back to being an elite program.

[IBleedBlue]

If this win lock up Johnny's first bid, I hope its the kind of monkey-off-back that will free him up to return Stanford back to being an elite program.
I think Stanford is still on the bubble. If there are upsets in the conference tournaments and some unknown team wins their conference tournament knocking off a sure shot NCAA tournament team, that would push the bubble teams like stanford out.
I believe they need to beat UCLA and reach the PAC12 final to assure themselves.

[Ichabod Drain]

I think Stanford is still on the bubble. If there are upsets in the conference tournaments and some unknown team wins their conference tournament knocking off a sure shot NCAA tournament team, that would push the bubble teams like stanford out.
I believe they need to beat UCLA and reach the PAC12 final to assure themselves.

I think they're in, Lunardi has them as a 9 seed. I know that doesn't guarantee anything but he's usually pretty close about who actually makes it in. It's a long way from 9 seed to out of the tourny.

[Troublemaker]

Bracket Matrix has Stanford ahead of 9 other at-large teams in their bracket as of this morning. I think Johnny can feel good that he's already in. Of course, another win can't hurt.

[JasonEvans]

I think they're in, Lunardi has them as a 9 seed. I know that doesn't guarantee anything but he's usually pretty close about who actually makes it in. It's a long way from 9 seed to out of the tourny.

Even if we get bid-stealing upset winners in three or four major conferences (which is highly unlikely), Stanford will still be pretty safely in the field. It is almost impossible to see them falling out given their resume.

-Jason "I agree that they are likely a #9 seed right now -- get blown out by UCLA and they could maybe drop to a #10 -- beat UCLA and they have a shot at a #8 or even higher" Evans

[tommy]

On the heels of last year's terrific NCAA tournament run, Stanford announced today that Johnny D has had his contract extended. Congrats, Johnny! Here's the link (http://www.gostanford.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=30600&ATCLID=209674512).

[Bluedog]

On the heels of last year's terrific NCAA tournament run, Stanford announced today that Johnny D has had his contract extended. Congrats, Johnny! Here's the link (http://www.gostanford.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=30600&ATCLID=209674512).

Great news! I thought Johnny was simply the Head Coach, but apparently he's the "Anne and Tony Joseph Director of Men's Basketball" at Stanford. ;) That, at least, is what the "Jaquish and Kenninger Director of Athletics" said. Man, those positions are mouthfuls! I guess that's what happens when you have alumni donations for the endowment of positions on the athletics side of things, but it sure sounds goofy to me.

[devildeac]

On the heels of last year's terrific NCAA tournament run, Stanford announced today that Johnny D has had his contract extended. Congrats, Johnny! Here's the link (http://www.gostanford.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=30600&ATCLID=209674512).

That's great news! Thanks for sharing but I'm tempted to negative spork you for using the word "h**ls" in a post about one of our esteemed alumni and former players and coaches ;). (kidding, kidding)