MBB: Duke @ BC Pre-Game & In-Game Thread (2/8, 1800 ET, ESPN)

[gofurman]

Thoughts?

Have to win this one as a winnable road game- but it's no gimme. They are well coached and have talent. Similar to Clemson honestly though I think Clemsn is a more hard-nosed team we struggle with more often than we do BC

[pfrduke]

BC is constitutionally incapable of playing defense. They've held a grand total of 3 teams below a point per possession this season - Sacred Heart, Philadelphia College (non-DI), and Virginia Tech (twice).* Those 4 teams also represent BC's only wins since November 23. The Eagles don't force turnovers, don't make you miss shots, and don't bother to get rebounds when you do. We should have precisely zero trouble scoring against them.

*stay tuned for my ~Feb. 24 post, Virginia Tech is constitutionally incapable of playing offense.

The other side of the ball is where BC has at least pretended to look like a real team. They've failed to top a point per possession on offense just 3 times all season, none of which have come in ACC play. They've had the 5th best offense in conference play (which, combined with their 2-7 record, further emphasizes how bad their defense is). Boston College has been the single best shooting team in conference games, primarily inside. Look for Olivier Hanlan to get into the paint a lot and to live at the foul line.

Worst case scenario for this game is that it looks like Vermont, where neither team can stop the other from scoring and the game is much closer than it should be. But I have enough faith in our defense to play at least well enough to make this a double digit margin. And I have no doubt whatsoever that we're going to score early, often, and with relative ease.

[Saratoga2]

We should continue to use our depth and keep the pressure on their offense while keeping fresh and potent offensive teams on the floor.

My first comment is that there has been a tendency on the board(Wake posts) to bad mouth Quinn after his recent slump. He had sore ankles and may be going through some other unknown challenge, however, the comments have been 1) his hang dog look similar to Austin Rivers is detracting from his concentration, 2) next year PG will surpass him, 3) Rasheed should be PG, etc. Quinn is a young man that has played very well for us in many games. I still believe he has an edge in running the team over either Tyler or Rasheed and his shooting has been quite good in the past. Let's support him and not dwell on current weaknesses. Positive feedback to him is more likely to return him to his better self. I believe the kids read these posts so lets keep it positive. We can celebrate Rasheed and Tylers successes without denigrating Quinn.

Look at how formidable our team is becoming

We have seen a pronounced improvement in Jabari's rebounding and shot selection and he is making strides in his defensive game, although he has more to do there.
Amile has shown tremendous growth in his game. His rebounding and defense has come a long ways and he is a cagey offensive presence.
Rassheed is catching fire and is a threat to drive and score or dish, hit from the outside and he requires defenses to pay close attention to him. His own defense is very good
Rodney has the ability to score from outside or get by his man if overplayed. His defense has also come along. He does very well defending the wing
Andre is a tremendous shooter (one of the best in the NCAA) and has added the ability to put the ball on the floor and be a gadfly on defense
Mashall is still a little raw but his size, motor and desire help us in our one weakest area. If he had any confidence in his offense he could add another dimension to the team
Josh brings us his experience and depth inside. He goes in and does the dirty work for the good of the team
Matt is a very good defender who i surmise could also be a solid offensive player but may have been discouraged from trying to take on that role at this time.
Semi is another high potential player who can come in and use his size, strength and athleticism to give the team depth. So far I can see glimmers of an offensive presence.

With the depth that we have, the hardest thing is for the coaches to give the players the PT needed to keep the team energized without jeopardizing the chance of winning. The line idea seemed to work as does the heavy substitution. Whatever substitution method we use, we should try to keep our best players out of foul trouble and give them at least short rest periods during the games. Most of the players are still growing their games and we want them at their best in the tournament.

[Channing]

My first comment is that there has been a tendency on the board(Wake posts) to bad mouth Quinn after his recent slump. He had sore ankles and may be going through some other unknown challenge, however, the comments have been 1) his hang dog look similar to Austin Rivers is detracting from his concentration, 2) next year PG will surpass him, 3) Rasheed should be PG, etc. Quinn is a young man that has played very well for us in many games. I still believe he has an edge in running the team over either Tyler or Rasheed and his shooting has been quite good in the past. Let's support him and not dwell on current weaknesses. Positive feedback to him is more likely to return him to his better self. I believe the kids read these posts so lets keep it positive. We can celebrate Rasheed and Tylers successes without denigrating Quinn.


I don't think (and I certainly hope) nobody is denigrating Quinn as a person. I haven't seen any posts calling his character into person. I do think, though, that it is fair to criticize his recent play, and question whether other options are better suited for success. If his ankles are really so balky it is on Coach K for playing him when he should be resting (truthfully, we did not need him against Wake). The fact that he played leads me to believe that Coach K expects him to play up to his high expectations.

I think everyone on this board supports Quinn, but it is practically our obligation as internet message board posters to point out the shortcomings and question his mental lapses. It is possible to do that while still being supportive.

That said, I am looking for a great game against BC. I do think Rasheed on Olivier Hanlan is our best bet to slow him down (neither Quinn nor TT are great at keeping quicker guards out the lane).

[pfrduke]

it is practically our obligation as internet message board posters to point out the shortcomings and question his mental lapses.

And thus encapsulating, in one nice, concise phrase, all of the problems with the internet. Tongue in cheek or not, that was well done.

[Kedsy]

Worst case scenario for this game is that it looks like Vermont, where neither team can stop the other from scoring and the game is much closer than it should be.

This is what worries me a little bit. BC has good players and a pretty good coach. They have a lot of upperclassmen who've played a lot of minutes together. Before the season I thought they'd be a contender for an NCAA bid. I get that they're losing a lot, and primarily because of their poor defense, but they'll get up for Duke and they almost beat us last year at their place. If our players suffer concentration lapses as they have at times in the past, this one could be a tough one.

[roywhite]

This is what worries me a little bit. BC has good players and a pretty good coach. They have a lot of upperclassmen who've played a lot of minutes together. Before the season I thought they'd be a contender for an NCAA bid. I get that they're losing a lot, and primarily because of their poor defense, but they'll get up for Duke and they almost beat us last year at their place. If our players suffer concentration lapses as they have at times in the past, this one could be a tough one.

Yeah, I'm somewhat worried, too. Coming into the season, I really thought BC would be good. They've done quite a lot to prove otherwise, but have some decent offensive players.

Seems important to me that Duke get off to a good start, better than we started against Wake, I would hope. Play good defense without fouling, and try to push the pace on offense. Continue to use a deep rotation.

[Troublemaker]

I love this game. It's sort of an opportunity to test our defense against a good offense (BC has the 34th-ranked kenpom offense) with very minimal risk of a game loss since, as pfr points out, BC's defense is atrocious. This is like a controlled laboratory experiment for our defense or something.

Olivier Hanlan is a nightmare matchup for our defense, and it'll be interesting to see how we defend him. He's probably the best driver in the ACC (eye test!), and that's been our problem all season. BC plays a small lineup with good shooters around, and it spreads you out and allows driving lanes for Hanlan and Ryan Anderson, who both have excellent FTRates. Can we defend BC's top 2 players without fouling? Anderson will be going right at Amile, Jabari, MP3, and Josh, who have all been foul prone recently (and sometimes not so recently as well.) Re: Hanlan, Tyler could ball-deny him some but on the occasions Hanlan receives the ball, Tyler would be helpless. Sheed could work, I suppose, but I want his pressure on BC's point Rahon. I prefer Rodney to guard Hanlan most of all. Rodney at 6'8" could take a step back to help thwart Hanlan's drives and still challenge Hanlan's shot if he goes up for it.

Whatever we do, I hope we hold BC to an Offensive Efficiency of about 100 (if not less). KenPom is predicting that we only hold them to 112.5 OE. Let's beat that projection and move up the KenPom rankings again.

[jv001]

This is what worries me a little bit. BC has good players and a pretty good coach. They have a lot of upperclassmen who've played a lot of minutes together. Before the season I thought they'd be a contender for an NCAA bid. I get that they're losing a lot, and primarily because of their poor defense, but they'll get up for Duke and they almost beat us last year at their place. If our players suffer concentration lapses as they have at times in the past, this one could be a tough one.

Before the season, I thought BC would be lock for an NCAA bid because they are an experienced team. I thought they had a better team than Clemson, FSU, Wake, NC State, VT, GT, MD, Miami, and could compete with unc, Pitt and ND. I was way off base and I wonder what has happened to BC. However, they will be up for Duke. Every team give us their best shot and with their talent, they could surely give us a fit if we don't come to play. I think it's a game if we don't come out strong and play good defense from the beginning, we could be in trouble. If we let them get confidence then they could be in it until the end. We'll need to come out with more fire than we had against Wake. GoDuke!

[MCFinARL]

This is what worries me a little bit. BC has good players and a pretty good coach. They have a lot of upperclassmen who've played a lot of minutes together. Before the season I thought they'd be a contender for an NCAA bid. I get that they're losing a lot, and primarily because of their poor defense, but they'll get up for Duke and they almost beat us last year at their place. If our players suffer concentration lapses as they have at times in the past, this one could be a tough one.

Agreed--this game could be a real test of whether the greater grit and ability to fight through challenges instead of falling apart shown recently are solidly established. (And I apologize in advance for that unwieldy sentence structure.)

[CDu]

I don't see this game as much of a test, really. And I don't think last year's game is worth much in regards to predictive power for this game.

This year's Duke team is MUCH better than the squad that went to BC last year. We played that game with Ryan Kelly, and that made a big difference. We were playing extremely small. Cook, Thornton, Sulaimon, and Curry played 128 minutes. That meant that for the entire game we had 3 small guards on the floor, and for 8 minutes we had all 4 of them out there. And when we went bigger, that meant that at least one of Hairston, Murphy, or a freshman Jefferson was on the floor. It wasn't our strongest look. And despite that, the reason the game last year was so close is because we just didn't shoot well at all (40% from the field, 35% from 3).

This year, we're so much deeper in terms of talent. And oddly enough, we're a bigger team, too. With Hood and Dawkins replacing Curry and some of Thorton's minutes, we're bigger. Parker is not as big as Plumlee, but he's arguably a better player (certainly more versatile). And Jefferson is SO much better now than he was last year that we have two inside presences.

Conversely, BC lost both of their centers from last year's team. Not that those guys were all that great, but it gave them some size inside. Now, they're REALLY small (even smaller than us) at PF and C.

I don't doubt that BC will score some on us. But I just can't see BC stopping us defensively nearly enough to make this a tight game.

[Olympic Fan]

In his recent games, Donahue has started Ryan Anderson, a 6-8 combo forward, and four guards --Hanlon, Rahon, Jackson and Heckman.

As you say, CDu, REALLY small.

They do play (and sometimes start) Eddie Odio -- a very athletic 6-6 forward a lot. They also have a 7-0 foreign center, but he's extremely soft (he'd rather be a guard). They have KC Caudill, a bulky, but extremely unathletic center. The thing that is killing them is the loss of Dennis Clifford, a fairly talented 7-footer who showed a lot of promise two years ago as a freshman, but has been hobbled by bad knees ever since (he's out for the rest of the season).

The danger with BC is that they love to drive the ball -- and we know how well Duke defends the driver. They have one of the better FT differentials in the league ... not because they are fouled a lot, but because they rarely foul (maybe a sign that they don't work very hard on defense?).

Hanlon is a real stud -- the 2013 ACC rookie of the year, who has gotten better this year. Jackson is a real threat from 3-point range. Anderson is a very complete player -- he's the guy James Michael McAdoo is supposed to be (but isn't).

Homecourt edge is difficult to calculate. Normally, they play in an empty building with the worst homecourt situation in the league. But we know that it's different when Duke comes to town. I'm hoping that the Duke fans buy up a significant portion of the available tickets.

A game Duke should win, but no cakewalk, despite BC's record. They have played some good and decent teams close -- they were in the game with Syracuse in the Dome into the final 90 seconds. They took Notre Dame to overtime in South Vend. They lost by two to UConn on a neutral court. They lost to Clemson by two. They made an impressive late run on Virginia in Charlottesville.

I'm afraid that one of these nights, they get lucky in as close game. Just hope its not this Saturday.

[roywhite]

Homecourt edge is difficult to calculate. Normally, they play in an empty building with the worst homecourt situation in the league. But we know that it's different when Duke comes to town. I'm hoping that the Duke fans buy up a significant portion of the available tickets.

A game Duke should win, but no cakewalk, despite BC's record. They have played some good and decent teams close -- they were in the game with Syracuse in the Dome into the final 90 seconds. They took Notre Dame to overtime in South Vend. They lost by two to UConn on a neutral court. They lost to Clemson by two. They made an impressive late run on Virginia in Charlottesville.

I'm afraid that one of these nights, they get lucky in as close game. Just hope its not this Saturday.

Is weather an issue, either for travel or possible game attendance? Or are we getting in an out between snow storms?

[flyingdutchdevil]

Is weather an issue, either for travel or possible game attendance? Or are we getting in an out between snow storms?

Snowed here in Boston yesterday (12-15 inches). Gonna snow on Sunday. From now until then, nada. Weather looks good. Just bloody cold.

Sidenote: I will make sure that a) BC doesn't win with my rampant cheering or b) get thrown out trying.

[cbarry]

I agree-- this game is not a test. BC is not good this year, and we are playing some good ball. Could be a good game to continue having Sulaimon running point. Should be a blowout, and will likely be essentially over by the half, if not earlier.

I don't see this game as much of a test, really....
I don't doubt that BC will score some on us. But I just can't see BC stopping us defensively nearly enough to make this a tight game.

[kAzE]

Hoping Ojeleye gets some meaningful minutes in this one, since it SHOULD be a pretty winnable contest. Also hoping Plumlee gets 15+ minutes. It's a good chance to get some seasoning for the end of our bench.

What are the odds of our absurdly efficient offense (128.6 on KenPom) on breaking 100 points against their woeful D? They are ranked 295th . . . It's the unstoppable force up against the supremely movable object.

[Rich]

Thoughts?

Have to win this one as a winnable road game- but it's no gimme. They are well coached and have talent. Similar to Clemson honestly though I think Clemsn is a more hard-nosed team we struggle with more often than we do BC

Are there any more games this season that we don't "have to win"? In order to keep up with the ACC frontrunners, we have to hold serve, take advantage of our home court, and win our home games. And we have to prove that we can win on the road, something we've had a reputation of not doing. We have to beat Carolina both times. I mean, are there any games at this point (actually, at any point) where we say beforehand, "Well, it's ok if we lose that one."

[flyingdutchdevil]

Hoping Ojeleye gets some meaningful minutes in this one, since it SHOULD be a pretty winnable contest. Also hoping Plumlee gets 15+ minutes. It's a good chance to get some seasoning for the end of our bench.

What are the odds on breaking 100 points against their woeful D?

I guess we're on the same page. About everything. A buddy of mine texted right after the WF game, "We're going to see Ojeleye hit one of those on Saturday". I agree 100%. I want to see Plumlee play, but I'm not sure we're going to. They are tiny, and AJ or Parker should be able to contain Anderson.

Odds of breaking 100? My guess is 25%. Odds of breaking 90? 75%. Odds of winning? I'm guaranteeing 100%.

[CDu]

Hoping Ojeleye gets some meaningful minutes in this one, since it SHOULD be a pretty winnable contest. Also hoping Plumlee gets 15+ minutes. It's a good chance to get some seasoning for the end of our bench.

I'd be surprised if either of these things happened.


What are the odds of our absurdly efficient offense (128.6 on KenPom) on breaking 100 points against their woeful D? They are ranked 295th . . . It's the unstoppable force up against the supremely movable object.

Not all that likely. While they are really bad defensively, they play at a REALLY slow pace (#314 in the country). They've only given up over 80 once in the last 12 games. They held Syracuse to just 69 points.

If I had to guess a score, I'd guess something in the neighborhood of 80-65, good guys.

[Troublemaker]

Are there any more games this season that we don't "have to win"? In order to keep up with the ACC frontrunners, we have to hold serve, take advantage of our home court, and win our home games. And we have to prove that we can win on the road, something we've had a reputation of not doing. We have to beat Carolina both times. I mean, are there any games at this point (actually, at any point) where we say beforehand, "Well, it's ok if we lose that one."

Agreed. Need to go 15-3 and hope that gets us a share of the ACC regular season title.


I agree-- this game is not a test. BC is not good this year, and we are playing some good ball. Could be a good game to continue having Sulaimon running point. Should be a blowout, and will likely be essentially over by the half, if not earlier.

I agree that the game will not end up being competitive -- I'm expecting/hoping for a 20+ margin -- but I would say it IS a test from the standpoint that every game holds value, and in this game, the value is in seeing how our defense plays a small lineup that likes to spread and drive, something which has given us problems at times this season. Including in our previous game where Wake Forest started 6'6" Adala-Moto at the 4 and brought their center Devin Thomas out to the high post to spread us out and facilitate backdoor cuts and drives.



This year, we're so much deeper in terms of talent. And oddly enough, we're a bigger team, too. With Hood and Dawkins replacing Curry and some of Thorton's minutes, we're bigger. Parker is not as big as Plumlee, but he's arguably a better player (certainly more versatile). And Jefferson is SO much better now than he was last year that we have two inside presences.

Conversely, BC lost both of their centers from last year's team. Not that those guys were all that great, but it gave them some size inside. Now, they're REALLY small (even smaller than us) at PF and C.

Agreed, and I'd like to see Duke STAY with our big lineup in this game and really pound the boards against BC and even go inside for post points. Oftentimes when an opponent is small or goes small, Coach K has elected to downsize and put Hood at the 4 and one of Parker/Amile at the 5, and I don't feel like we've generally played well when that happens. I suspect any of Jabari, Amile, or Rodney can get postup points in this game against their anticipated defenders if we stay with our normal lineup, and I'd like to see that utilized.

[DukieInBrasil]

i hope our team is taking this game more seriously than the vaunted DBR message board is!
Had to get this back on the front page.

[Matches]

The only way for Duke to lose this game is to lay a total egg. BC has been terrible this year and, though this is a road game for us, they're not going to get the Super Bowl-esque environment that we've seen in other places.

It's one of those games where I almost don't care what they do, gameplan-wise. We ought to be able to handle it. Hanlan is the only guy on their team who would play big minutes for us.

[Kedsy]

The only way for Duke to lose this game is to lay a total egg. BC has been terrible this year and, though this is a road game for us, they're not going to get the Super Bowl-esque environment that we've seen in other places.

It's one of those games where I almost don't care what they do, gameplan-wise. We ought to be able to handle it. Hanlan is the only guy on their team who would play big minutes for us.

I don't know why you say that, we got the treatment last year and barely escaped.

The more I think about it, the more I think this is Vermont, redux. I understand that Vermont has a better defense than BC, but it's not like Vermont ever stopped us when they were on D. I'd be surprised if BC allows us to score more than the 1.42 points per possession that Vermont did. On the other hand, BC's offense is better than Vermont's and their style is pretty similar.

So I think this is a good test to see how far our defense has come since Vermont. I also think it won't be nearly so much of a romp as many here seem to believe. If the team comes in lax or loses concentration, we could be in for an uncomfortable ride. Let's not get overconfident here.

[DukieInBrasil]

I don't know why you say that, we got the treatment last year and barely escaped.

The more I think about it, the more I think this is Vermont, redux. I understand that Vermont has a better defense than BC, but it's not like Vermont ever stopped us when they were on D. I'd be surprised if BC allows us to score more than the 1.42 points per possession that Vermont did. On the other hand, BC's offense is better than Vermont's and their style is pretty similar.

So I think this is a good test to see how far our defense has come since Vermont. I also think it won't be nearly so much of a romp as many here seem to believe. If the team comes in lax or loses concentration, we could be in for an uncomfortable ride. Let's not get overconfident here.

I'd be surprised if our defense weren't a good bit better vs BC than it was vs Vermont. Wake is not a world-beating team, but after the first 1/4 of the game, our defense played reasonably well. Coming off the emotional loss to Syracuse on the road, i think that's probably the situation where our defensive chemistry would be at its least optimum. I believe the boys in royal blue will have their heads in the right places for this one, we've played quite well on the road ever since Clemson and i hope that'll continue in Beantown. I'm not one to say that there's no possible way we'll lose this game, but i have confidence that the leaders on this team will let everyone know what the deal is and that they'll be ready to play well. Hopefully they understand that they need to win pretty much every game from here on out to guarantee themselves a place in the top 4 of the ACCT, which gives them 2 byes rather than just the 1 that the 5th place team gets.

[Matches]

I don't know why you say that, we got the treatment last year and barely escaped.


We laid an egg last year. Flat, uninspired performance. I seem to recall some travel issues that may have played a part.

I'm not saying we can't lose the game. I'm saying the only way we'll lose the game is if we play very poorly. With even an average performance, we win this one comfortably.

[ncexnyc]

Not that this means anything, but BC played pretty well against the heels when they played at the dome a few weeks ago. They were in it right up until the point where the heels started actually hitting freethrows.

[wallyman]

I guess we're on the same page. About everything. A buddy of mine texted right after the WF game, "We're going to see Ojeleye hit one of those on Saturday". I agree 100%. I want to see Plumlee play, but I'm not sure we're going to. They are tiny, and AJ or Parker should be able to contain Anderson.

Odds of breaking 100? My guess is 25%. Odds of breaking 90? 75%. Odds of winning? I'm guaranteeing 100%.

100 percent?
Man, you don't believe in karma do you? If you really want to taunt the cosmic powers that be into doing something really toxic, this is a great way to do it. There's no D1 game (Vermont at home?) we have a 100 percent chance of winning).

[Troublemaker]

For more context, the point spread has been set as 10/10.5 for this game.

Pomeroy is a bit more optimistic, having Duke by 14 (projected score 86-72).

[Troublemaker]

More context:

BC has covered 3 consecutive point spreads, which says to me that they are on an upswing right now.

Their most recent loss to UVA was impressive because they managed to post 1.03ppp on UVA's great defense in Charlottesville, which hadn't been done all season long up to that point, i.e. no opponent had cracked 1ppp at UVA until BC did it.

Are we really going to be able to defend BC's offense?

[DevilYouthCoach]

We should continue to use our depth and keep the pressure on their offense while keeping fresh and potent offensive teams on the floor.

My first comment is that there has been a tendency on the board(Wake posts) to bad mouth Quinn after his recent slump. He had sore ankles and may be going through some other unknown challenge, however, the comments have been 1) his hang dog look similar to Austin Rivers is detracting from his concentration, 2) next year PG will surpass him, 3) Rasheed should be PG, etc. Quinn is a young man that has played very well for us in many games. I still believe he has an edge in running the team over either Tyler or Rasheed and his shooting has been quite good in the past. Let's support him and not dwell on current weaknesses. Positive feedback to him is more likely to return him to his better self. I believe the kids read these posts so lets keep it positive. We can celebrate Rasheed and Tylers successes without denigrating Quinn.



I agree with Saratoga on this. Most of us have played sports or games in which we had off days. They happen to every athlete as well, at every level. I think it's important to let the guys play the games as well as they can without getting into too much criticism. It often sounds like displaced anger to me -- using the board to vent. I can yell and scream as well as the next guy, but I think it usually does more harm than good.

[DevilYouthCoach]

The only way for Duke to lose this game is to lay a total egg. BC has been terrible this year and, though this is a road game for us, they're not going to get the Super Bowl-esque environment that we've seen in other places.

It's one of those games where I almost don't care what they do, gameplan-wise. We ought to be able to handle it. Hanlan is the only guy on their team who would play big minutes for us.



I think the challenge for us will be to not lay a total egg! After the Syracuse drama, and the easy second half with Wake, and the difficult traveling conditions going to Boston, I can imagine a scenario in which guys would really like to do something real easy for a change. Unfortunately, that attitude leads to disaster. There are no easy road games in the ACC. Every team is out to kill us. Every court and every rim is different. Every set of refs is unpredictable. Every new situation has distractions galore. I predict a win, but not an easy one.

[Troublemaker]

More context:

BC has covered 3 consecutive point spreads, which says to me that they are on an upswing right now.

Their most recent loss to UVA was impressive because they managed to post 1.03ppp on UVA's great defense in Charlottesville, which hadn't been done all season long up to that point, i.e. no opponent had cracked 1ppp at UVA until BC did it.

Are we really going to be able to defend BC's offense?



Couple more questions to decide whether this game will be a "comfortable win" or "problematic"


Is Duke temporarily done with our upswing? Duke has covered 6 consecutive point spreads. But the first 4 were by wide margins, and the last two ('Cuse, Wake) could've gone either way. We have good excuses. 'Cuse made some tough contested 2s and officating may have favored them. Against Wake, we had the post-'Cuse hangover. But is all this a little bit too convenient for us? Maybe our upswing is done temporarily, and we're running into a team that's on their own little upswing. Maybe we're not just gonna go back to drilling teams now that the 'Cuse game and the 'Cuse hangover game are behind us. Are we really going to beat BC by 15+?
Does Duke really have an issue defending small teams? YES! As one of the original creators of this theory, I wholeheartedly believe in it. Duke is going to have a tough time defending BC. They spread you out, and they drive. I know Duke will be able to take away their threes because that's what we do, but I have no idea what's going to happen when they drive inside or pass inside. Two points? Two points and a foul? Just a foul? I believe we're going to see way too much of those things.

Overall verdict? Comfortable win, but our offense will have to be sharp, which I think it will be post-Cuse hangover, to carry us. We're not going to leave this game happy with how we defended, but we'll leave this game with a 8-12 point win. (So I retract any previous predictions of a 20+ margin. This game will not be a blowout.).

[Dukehky]

If we run rotations of Rasheed, Tyler, with spells of Matt Jones on Hanlan, I think that he will wear down and be less effective down the stretch, if he is effective at all. We defend the 3 pretty well, and I think that their only shot is to go wild from deep. Also, if we make a concerted effort to get Jabari the ball in the post, I doubt they will be able to contain him.

I'm with a lot of people on the board in that we don't necessarily have to play really well to win this game. As long as we play HARD we should win by double digits. I'm becoming less and less concerned with whether Duke will play hard, or fight. Know what I mean?

[Duvall]

Couple more questions to decide whether this game will be a "comfortable win" or "problematic"

Is Duke temporarily done with our upswing? Duke has covered 6 consecutive point spreads. But the first 4 were by wide margins, and the last two ('Cuse, Wake) could've gone either way. We have good excuses. 'Cuse made some tough contested 2s and officating may have favored them. Against Wake, we had the post-'Cuse hangover. But is all this a little bit too convenient for us? Maybe our upswing is done temporarily, and we're running into a team that's on their own little upswing. Maybe we're not just gonna go back to drilling teams now that the 'Cuse game and the 'Cuse hangover game are behind us. Are we really going to beat BC by 15+?

Seems like the simpler explanation is that Duke's upswing has been priced into their point spreads since the win at Pitt. After that game, oddsmakers and bettors have been treating Duke like an elite team, and it's hard to exceed the expectations for a top five team.

[Troublemaker]

Seems like the simpler explanation is that Duke's upswing has been priced into their point spreads since the win at Pitt. After that game, oddsmakers and bettors have been treating Duke like an elite team, and it's hard to exceed the expectations for a top five team.

Oh, good sir, that is exactly correct, of course! To borrow a line from Des Esseintes from another post about odds, I am embarrassed to not have been on top of this. I have had a couple glasses of wine tonight, in my defense. Good call, Duvall!

[kAzE]

If we run rotations of Rasheed, Tyler, with spells of Matt Jones on Hanlan, I think that he will wear down and be less effective down the stretch, if he is effective at all. We defend the 3 pretty well, and I think that their only shot is to go wild from deep. Also, if we make a concerted effort to get Jabari the ball in the post, I doubt they will be able to contain him.

I'm with a lot of people on the board in that we don't necessarily have to play really well to win this game. As long as we play HARD we should win by double digits. I'm becoming less and less concerned with whether Duke will play hard, or fight. Know what I mean?

Yeah, I agree. I think guys are starting to step up and lead by example, and everyone has started taking the cue. I'm especially proud of our two sophomores, Jefferson and Sulaimon. They've really set the tone in terms of hustle and effort in this recent stretch of games. Thornton obviously is also a great leader, guys really respect him. And he lays its all out there every game, so I don't think we're going to have to worry about effort at any point. It's all about execution now.

[Kedsy]

...so I don't think we're going to have to worry about effort at any point. It's all about execution now.

I disagree. Pretty much every game, we've had a stretch where we look like we're being knocked back, where we look like the opponent is playing harder than we expect and we're surprised at how difficult it is to either contain them (on D) or overcome them (on O). Or both. Granted, the stretches have been shorter in recent games but they've still been there. That's effort, that's concentration, that's complacency, whatever you want to call it, that affects the outcome of the game.

Against Vermont, back in November, these concentration lapses seemed to encompass the entire game. Hopefully we'll either eliminate the lapses or keep them to a minimum against BC, but I'm certainly going to worry, at least until the game is out of hand.

[gofurman]

This is what worries me a little bit. BC has good players and a pretty good coach. They have a lot of upperclassmen who've played a lot of minutes together. Before the season I thought they'd be a contender for an NCAA bid. I get that they're losing a lot, and primarily because of their poor defense, but they'll get up for Duke and they almost beat us last year at their place. If our players suffer concentration lapses as they have at times in the past, this one could be a tough one.


Agree. Surprised that BC is not doing better this year. Hanlan, Rahon and Anderson are quality players who have a year or two solid experience despite being soph or juniors. They all started as freshman. I really thought BC would be a 9-9 type ACC team this year. I thought they would be About where Clemson is... Those three players I mentioned I thought pre-season would be all acc honorable mention or better in Hanlans case. I think they easily have as much talent as Clemson, maybe more. One thing they don't have is a bruiser inside so that's good. Anderson is more 6-9 225 or so I think

These guys at BC have been together two years now. Maybe they turn the corner next year

[Bob Green]

Is today an opportunity for Matt Jones to see increased minutes? The key to the game will be aggressively defending Hanlan, at all times, and Jones is a solid defender. If Coach K opts to stick with the deeper rotation philosophy, and I think he will, Jones could be called upon to take his turn hounding Hanlan all over the court.

Last year, Duke won 62-61 in Chestnut Hill. Hanlan scored 20 of BC's 61 points. We need a defender in his hip pocket at all times.

[Troublemaker]

We need to rebound.

BC ranks 306th in the country in offensive rebounding, and 295th in the country in defensive rebounding.

Duke is going to take away their three-pt shots (50% of BC's shots in conference play have been 3s) and allow BC to shoot 2-pt shots galore. Some of them will go in, but hopefully we don't foul. For the shots that miss, we need to be there to grab the defensive board.

On offense, we should be scoring at will. Every miss from us that goes up, Duke will have great chance of grabbing the offensive rebound. That's how you punish a small team. Hopefully we won't miss much, but if we do, get it back and get another shot up.

If we have a 10+ margin in rebounding, it's going to be very hard to lose.

[superdave]

We need to rebound.

BC ranks 306th in the country in offensive rebounding, and 295th in the country in defensive rebounding.

Duke is going to take away their three-pt shots (50% of BC's shots in conference play have been 3s) and allow BC to shoot 2-pt shots galore. Some of them will go in, but hopefully we don't foul. For the shots that miss, we need to be there to grab the defensive board.

On offense, we should be scoring at will. Every miss from us that goes up, Duke will have great chance of grabbing the offensive rebound. That's how you punish a small team. Hopefully we won't miss much, but if we do, get it back and get another shot up.

If we have a 10+ margin in rebounding, it's going to be very hard to lose.

I was noticing BCs high % of 3s on the season as well. 513 of 1106 field goal attempts on the season have been from deep. And BC is only hitting .343. Hold them to form on that aspect of the game and we will not have a problem.

BC has also been out-rebounded on the season as well. Their best chance to hang in this game and have a shot is to make it a slow, low energy game where we grow complacent and lose discipline. We will understand more about Duke's focus and maturity today. If they Have grown Duke will be energetic and forcing the action throughout.

[DukeDevil]

I could go into a lot of things I'd like to see this game, but beyond winning and back-to-form play from Quinn, I hope we use our size advantage (how often can we say that) to get the bigs lots of touches of pick and rolls, especially MP3, to help gain confidence. I think building MP3's confidence could be a big factor going down the latter half (final third? are we really that far along?) of the season

[Henderson]

Is today an opportunity for Matt Jones to see increased minutes? The key to the game will be aggressively defending Hanlan, at all times, and Jones is a solid defender. If Coach K opts to stick with the deeper rotation philosophy, and I think he will, Jones could be called upon to take his turn hounding Hanlan all over the court.

Last year, Duke won 62-61 in Chestnut Hill. Hanlan scored 20 of BC's 61 points. We need a defender in his hip pocket at all times.

I had a dream last night that Matt Jones made some amazing plays, and I never dream about basketball.

If we have a defender in Hanlan's hip pocket, does that require BC to wear throwback uniforms? You know, the kind with pockets to keep your smokes and a photo of your best girl in?

[DukeDevil]

If we have a defender in Hanlan's hip pocket, does that require BC to wear throwback uniforms? You know, the kind with pockets to keep your smokes and a photo of your best girl in?

Patrick Davidson's uniform has pockets big enough to hold a binder of women.

[NYBri]

One of the advantages to playing 10 or 11 deep is that it minimizes the chances of us "laying an egg."

With a longer bench we are less dependent upon one or two scorers or one or two defenders. It is less likely that an entire team will have an off night.

Also I seem to recall that a lot of our bad stretches were due to the fact that Quinn Cook was making bad decisions for an extended period of time. Now we have other aggressive options at the point so I think the chances of that happening are reduced significantly.

That being said, there's nothing to prevent BC from just out right beating us, but I think the chances of that happening based on talent are very small.

[Ultrarunner]

That being said, there's nothing to prevent BC from just out right beating us, but I think the chances of that happening based on talent are very small.

With Virginia tied with GT with under 10 minutes to go and Pitt losing to VT with eight to go, I hope to heck you're right. Personally, I'm hoping for a boring 30 point blowout with a team that has figured out how to have a truly nasty streak on defense.

[Fish80]

I'm hopeful that Amile has a monster game. He's been playing great, except for last game, which wasn't his best. I don't think BC has anyone that matches up with him, and they're likely to focus on Hood and Parker.

And I respectfully submit a humble plea to the basketball gods. Don't take it out on our team just because some bonehead poster said 100% guarantee victory. A bonehead thing to say by a boneheaded bonehead. If necessary, I'm willing to sacrifice said bonehead to counteract any damage done by his or her boneheadedness.

[Bob Green]

For more context, the point spread has been set as 10/10.5 for this game.

Pomeroy is a bit more optimistic, having Duke by 14 (projected score 86-72).

Vegas has Duke favored by 10 points with the over/under set at 147.5 so they are looking for a score in the neighborhood of 79-69.

[El_Diablo]

Boooo....this WVU-KU game is going to run long.

[CLW]

Boooo....this WVU-KU game is going to run long.

Ticker says game will start on ESPN News

[devilnfla]

Boooo....this WVU-KU game is going to run long.

Tip at 6:10 with coverage on ESPN news.

[riverside6]

Live tempo-based stats for Duke/BC...

http://www.scacchoops.com/ViewHDGame.asp?hSchedule=20102

[-jk]

Looks like Tyler and Rasheed starting over Quinn again.

-jk

[DukieInBrasil]

Another game with no line changes. I wonder why the coaching staff has moved away from that idea so much. Seems like a 2nd squad with Quinn and Dre would have decent offense, at least not so different from Sheed and Dre. A bit smaller perhaps

[slower]

So at this point, much of the smack talk and optimistic predictions by some on this board isn't worth a crap. As usual.

[ncexnyc]

WTH, I step away from the desk to collect the shift paperwork and suddenly return to find a close game.

[Selover]

Ahh. Doris Burke does play by play in my nightmares.

[bbosbbos]

They are small and quick. So K is sending MJ and SO in. However, our D is not looking good.

[Kfanarmy]

Is the d ever going to get better?

[bbosbbos]

Their guards are hammering Cook.


Is the d ever going to get better?

[Kfanarmy]

Their guards are hammering Cook.

He has been caught 10 feet away from his man a couple of times.

[TKG]

Ahh. Doris Burke does play by play in my nightmares.

Hey, at least you don't have to listen to Bob Harris. I am driving back to Raleigh and Harris is the only option. He is just awful. Nice guy, I am sure, but just a brutal play-by-play guy.

[bbosbbos]

I do not worry about this game. RS and MJ and TT will do the job today. Problem is we will see such small teams in NCAAT 1 & 2 round. I do not want to see Lehigh game again.


He has been caught 10 feet away from his man a couple of times.

[gcashwell]

Where is Marshall?

[El_Diablo]

Where is Marshall?

Bench.

Knee issue.

[Sixthman]

Where is Marshall?

Great question. Either not a good matchup or he is under the weather.

[CLW]

AWFUL defensive effort the first half. guys wide open falling asleep on back door cuts etc.... 115.9 on D thankfully the O is its usual form 133.6. one of these games though (most likely in the dance) the shots just won't fall and the ? will be can this team play anything resembling a decent defense.

[4Gen]

Hey, at least you don't have to listen to Bob Harris. I am driving back to Raleigh and Harris is the only option. He is just awful. Nice guy, I am sure, but just a brutal play-by-play guy.

I always give Bob a two count before accepting good news.

In...and out.
Foul... No they're saying it's a charge.
Touchdown...No it was intercepted.

Yada yada yada.

[FerryFor50]

Great question. Either not a good matchup or he is under the weather.

Laura Keeley tweeted he's out with a non-serious knee issue.

[Dukehky]

I always give Bob a two count before accepting good news.

In...and out.
Foul... No they're saying it's a charge.
Touchdown...No it was intercepted.

Yada yada yada.

He's just old. Used to be incredible, at least I always thought so. Still has a great voice, just a little bit slower on the uptake these days. Better than Woody Durham...

[4Gen]

Doris said Parker fights through contact. Well if he doesn't, he'll never score.

[fisheyes]

Sheed to Parker...a thing of beauty!

[ChrisP]

Doris said Parker fights through contact. Well if he doesn't, he'll never score.

Word!!!

[Selover]

After that ridiculous Sheed to Jabari dunk Doris says, "I think Jabari should have kept it." WHAT?

[bbosbbos]

Millions of hands hit Parkers arms and hands when he touched the BB.


Doris said Parker fights through contact. Well if he doesn't, he'll never score.

[duke09hms]

Jabari's defense is woeful, constantly leaving shooters open at the 3-pt line.

[bbosbbos]

Many many Duke fans said good things about the past Doris. But I think Doris has become ridiculous recently when commenting Duke.


After that ridiculous Sheed to Jabari dunk Doris says, "I think Jabari should have kept it." WHAT?

[fisheyes]

For goodness sake....What does Coach say at halftime to unleash what we are seeing now?!

[ChrisP]

I think just about all (if not all) of Quinn's 3's today have been ill-advised shots but...hard to argue with 4-4, I guess

[cwarner62]

While he hasn't shot great, I think Rasheed's had an awesome all-around game - it seems like he's becoming more of the point and Quinn is becoming more of a 2 and its really working well. And it looks like Rasheed is giving a lot of leadership and motivation to Jabari. A couple plays before the give and go fast break dunk, it looked to me like Rasheed was yelling at Jabari, who was fouled while triple teamed underneath, that he needs to pass out of the triple team (Rasheed was wide open in the corner). Later Rasheed gave Jabari a little shove from behind to go step out on his guy on defense.

[4Gen]

It was often repeated, especially by Vitale, that Thornton can't shoot. Well he's the best bad shooter in history.

[Selover]

Quinn is just on today.

[fisheyes]

Breakout game for Quinn?

[Ggallagher]

Sorry, gotta be the contrarian here. I'd rather listen to Doris than a big crowd of folks we might get in her place - and she immediately came to Jabari's defense on the technical.

[duke4ever19]

That was "hanging on the rim"????

[Dukehky]

It was for slapping the backboard, can't do that. Well guys, we just saw Jabari Parker's first and last technical foul of his basketball career. Unless Joey Crawford just doesn't like him.

[Kfanarmy]

Breakout game for Quinn?

A big basket...his d was not good in the first...BC has missed a bundle of wide open threes this half

[BlueDevilBrowns]

That was "hanging on the rim"????

I think it was also the slap of the backboard.

[duke4ever19]

I think it was also the slap of the backboard.

Ah, I didn't notice the slap. Corey Maggette should have warned Jabari about that.

[cwarner62]

Sorry, gotta be the contrarian here. I'd rather listen to Doris than a big crowd of folks we might get in her place - and she immediately came to Jabari's defense on the technical.

She does get points for the mention of JJ being one of the best at silencing hostile crowds on the road.

[toughbuff1]

It was for slapping the backboard, can't do that. Well guys, we just saw Jabari Parker's first and last technical foul of his basketball career. Unless Joey Crawford just doesn't like him.

I'm pretty sure he got t'ed up for hanging on the rim earlier this season. Although that may have been Daniel Ewing.

[Selover]

Justice Winslow is great to follow on twitter during the game.

[nmduke2001]

Great second half but I'll never understand having the starters (I know Q didn't start) in with 4 minutes left when we are up 24. Wouldn't that be a good time for Marshall to get some experience and Jabari some rest?

[Selover]

I'm pretty sure he got t'ed up for hanging on the rim earlier this season. Although that may have been Daniel Ewing.

I think it was Hood

[iragsdale]

I think it was Hood

Was definitely Parker. That might actually be his third.