Love the depth - can we have the line changes back?

[gofurman]

I love the depth this year. I wonder if we will ever see the 5 for 5 changes again?. I loved that,,,! Seemed to energize the team... Gave Cohesion to each five man unit! ( you know your compadres tendencies better)... Everyone knew to go all out as no one played more than 30 minutes...

[Class of '94]

I love the depth this year. I wonder if we will ever see the 5 for 5 changes again?. I loved that,,,! Seemed to energize the team... Gave Cohesion to each five man unit! ( you know your compadres tendencies better)... Everyone knew to go all out as no one played more than 30 minutes...

I agree....I would love to see the line changes again; but it maybe harder to do with Rasheed playing so well and back in the starting lineup with Tyler. The line changes appeared to work best with Rasheed and Andre together in the 2nd unit to provide the scoring punch. I'm not sure that the 2nd unit would play as effectively (with a line change) having Quinn and Matt Jones joined with Andre and the others. With the scoring of Quinn and Matt being down, the second unit would only have 1 proven scorer in Andre; and teams could just load up on him imo.

[Clay Feet POF]

I like it too. Certainly you have to pick your spots as when to use it. This is what I see it doing (especially for the Dance):

1) Change the dynamics of player match-ups that may force opponents to adjust their rotation or face maybe being worn down late in the game.

.2) Our opponents will have to expand their pre game focus to deal with more possible combinations.

3) Reduce ware and tear on our players. Eliminate the temptation of getting into a” ride your horse to death mode”.

4) Eliminate the stigma of Garbage Time, now you’re out there with your Line. One or two players no longer being noticed for finally getting into the game.

5) Getting some offensive baby steps for Plumlee to look to score or at least look like he has an offensive game (How many P&R has he been in?) It seems to me its time to expand his role and not use him like Jack Nicholson used the Chief in “One Flow Over the Cuckoo.”

I’m sure there are more Pros & Cons, but I think the Pros have more weight.

[tommy]

Put it in the basket, Chief!


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7n9hSMquADI

[Clay Feet POF]

Put it in the basket, Chief!


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7n9hSMquADI

Thanks for the video Tommy. This scene was always my favorite.

[Jarhead]

Thanks for the video Tommy. This scene was always my favorite.

One of my favorite movies, too.

[tommy]

Thanks for the video Tommy. This scene was always my favorite.

One more great scene with the Chief and McMurphy. Juicyfruit!


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-pZYU8OGO6Q

[91_92_01_10_15]

I agree....I would love to see the line changes again; but it maybe harder to do with Rasheed playing so well and back in the starting lineup with Tyler. The line changes appeared to work best with Rasheed and Andre together in the 2nd unit to provide the scoring punch. I'm not sure that the 2nd unit would play as effectively (with a line change) having Quinn and Matt Jones joined with Andre and the others. With the scoring of Quinn and Matt being down, the second unit would only have 1 proven scorer in Andre; and teams could just load up on him imo.

Maybe leading the second unit would revitalize Quinn in the same way it seems to have revitalized Rasheed.

[Kedsy]

Maybe leading the second unit would revitalize Quinn in the same way it seems to have revitalized Rasheed.

Different players, different strengths. To me, Quinn makes more sense with the first unit and Rasheed makes sense with the second, although I wouldn't expect Rasheed's minutes to be limited to second unit only.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Different players, different strengths. To me, Quinn makes more sense with the first unit and Rasheed makes sense with the second, although I wouldn't expect Rasheed's minutes to be limited to second unit only.

Sulaimon has evolved as a player this year, and it's incredibly exciting (of course, I am slightly bias as the President of the Sualimon Fan Club).

I think he understands that he needs to change his role depending on the situation. On the 1st team, he is more of a facilitator, defender, and opportunistic scorer. On the 2nd team, he's scoring option #1 and the official Andre-Dawkins-Finder.

Dawkins may be our most lethal-weapon-not-named-Jabari-or-Hood, but Sulaimon is, IMO, one of our most important players, especially given that he can play the 1-3.

[Lar77]

Different players, different strengths. To me, Quinn makes more sense with the first unit and Rasheed makes sense with the second, although I wouldn't expect Rasheed's minutes to be limited to second unit only.

I agree. The 1st/2nd units seemed to work well with Quinn in the first and Rasheed in the second with mixing them up as the game develops. Jabari and Rodney will get the most minutes followed by Quinn and Rasheed. Andre seems best suited for 15 -20 minutes. Amile, MP3, and Josh time is influenced by the other team's inside strength and fouls. Tyler and Matt are based on needs of the game. Tyler is a great leader, and it's like having a coach on the floor.

[Clay Feet POF]

Is there a consistency amount posters as to the players in each unit. Thoughts

[Kedsy]

Is there a consistency amount posters as to the players in each unit. Thoughts

I haven't the slightest idea what your question is.

[Clay Feet POF]

I haven't the slightest idea what your question is.

Asking who you see as the names (players) in Unit #1

[Kedsy]

Asking who you see as the names (players) in Unit #1

Oh, OK. If we're going to go the two-line route, I liked the units K originally chose: Jabari-Rodney-Quinn-Amile-Matt on line one and Rasheed-Andre-Marshall-Tyler-(Josh or Semi) on line two.

If we're going to go 8 and a half deep, I'd again go with K's choice: Jabari-Rodney-Quinn-Amile-Rasheed-Andre-Tyler-Marshall, with Matt, Josh, and Semi fighting for the 9th man role. I like Matt's D and Semi's potential and Josh's savvy, but if we're only playing 8 guys 10+ minutes, I wouldn't want any of the three of them beating out any of the current first 8.

[jv001]

Different players, different strengths. To me, Quinn makes more sense with the first unit and Rasheed makes sense with the second, although I wouldn't expect Rasheed's minutes to be limited to second unit only.

Absolutely agree they have different strengths and both bring value to the team. I don't think Quinn with; Andre, Matt, Marshall, Josh/Semi that unit would be as effective as it was Rasheed. I don't know if being injured is the reason for the drop off in Quinn's play but it's evident he's not the same Quinn I saw at the beginning of the year. Duke played some really good teams in November and December, so I don't think it's the competition. I just don't think we'll see the line change until Quinn's right. I do think we'll see more minutes for the bench against BC. GoDuke!

[OldPhiKap]

Absolutely agree they have different strengths and both bring value to the team. I don't think Quinn with; Andre, Matt, Marshall, Josh/Semi that unit would be as effective as it was Rasheed. I don't know if being injured is the reason for the drop off in Quinn's play but it's evident he's not the same Quinn I saw at the beginning of the year. Duke played some really good teams in November and December, so I don't think it's the competition. I just don't think we'll see the line change until Quinn's right. I do think we'll see more minutes for the bench against BC. GoDuke!

The good thing about some movement between the groups is -- as opposing coach, how do you prepare? Staring lineups are announced, what, about an hour before tip. Plus it can change through the game.

Not to mentions he competition in practice . . . .

[johnb]

Absolutely agree they have different strengths and both bring value to the team. I don't think Quinn with; Andre, Matt, Marshall, Josh/Semi that unit would be as effective as it was Rasheed. I don't know if being injured is the reason for the drop off in Quinn's play but it's evident he's not the same Quinn I saw at the beginning of the year. Duke played some really good teams in November and December, so I don't think it's the competition. I just don't think we'll see the line change until Quinn's right. I do think we'll see more minutes for the bench against BC. GoDuke!

I'm fine with more bench minutes against BC, assuming the game is as close as I would expect.

I really doubt, however, that we'll see wholesale substitutions as the season winds down. Seems to me that K has been shifting things around to see whose play most warrants starter's minutes, and that, while practice can reveal a lot, it might be hard to predict who is going to come through in the clutch, on the road, against elite competition.

As I think back to Rasheed's early season problems, it might come down to something he said (paraphrased): "I got demoralized all preseason by trying to defend Rodney and Jabari, and no matter what I did, they'd easily score." In retrospect, he couldn't compete with lottery picks as an undersized wing forward, but he is coming into his own as a penetrating guard who can free up space for three really great scorers--and he seems currently more effective at that role than either of our designated point guards. Further, if he's thinking ahead to an NBA career (and I would, if I were him), he should be absolutely thrilled by the opportunity to show off some blossoming PG skills....

Anyway, I like Quinn (and Tyler) a lot, and either of them might become the 35 minute a game starter at PG, but I agree with those who think we might be seeing a little changing of the (point) guard and that starter's minutes might be going to AJ, RH, JP, RS, AD, with the rest of the rotation being doled out based on circumstances and opponents.

[jv001]

I'm fine with more bench minutes against BC, assuming the game is as close as I would expect.

I really doubt, however, that we'll see wholesale substitutions as the season winds down. Seems to me that K has been shifting things around to see whose play most warrants starter's minutes, and that, while practice can reveal a lot, it might be hard to predict who is going to come through in the clutch, on the road, against elite competition.

As I think back to Rasheed's early season problems, it might come down to something he said (paraphrased): "I got demoralized all preseason by trying to defend Rodney and Jabari, and no matter what I did, they'd easily score." In retrospect, he couldn't compete with lottery picks as an undersized wing forward, but he is coming into his own as a penetrating guard who can free up space for three really great scorers--and he seems currently more effective at that role than either of our designated point guards. Further, if he's thinking ahead to an NBA career (and I would, if I were him), he should be absolutely thrilled by the opportunity to show off some blossoming PG skills....

Anyway, I like Quinn (and Tyler) a lot, and either of them might become the 35 minute a game starter at PG, but I agree with those who think we might be seeing a little changing of the (point) guard and that starter's minutes might be going to AJ, RH, JP, RS, AD, with the rest of the rotation being doled out based on circumstances and opponents.

You could be correct but I wouldn't count Quinn out just yet. He's got the ability to perform at a high level. He just needs his confidence back. I do believe the players you named(intials) are the players that need to be on the court the most minutes. Especially in crunch time, Rasheed looks comfortable running the offense when the clock is winding down. I also think you've hit on something else. I think Andre will be getting 20-25 minutes once reach ACCT and NCAAT time. I know some are going to mention his defense, but in my eyes it's not so bad that we can't get by with him on the court. Another player that's going to get minutes in certain situations is Tyler. He's seems to be another steading force that creates havoc on defense. Not so much on the ball defense but team defense. I just want the team to continue to improve. GoDuke!

[Troublemaker]

I just don't think we'll see the line change until Quinn's right.

I'm not sure we'll see line changes again, period. We really only did line changes for three games: UVA, NCSU, and Miami. Since then, we've played four games and (according to my quick review of official box scores) only did a 5-for-5 line change ONCE during those four games, which occurred early in the Pitt game. So, three games with line changes, then four games without line changes, essentially. Until shown otherwise, I would assume that they're basically done for this season (except perhaps occasionally a single line change done early in a game).

Also, while I would love to see line changes return, they're not a panacea. The game where we did the most line changes was UVA, and the Wahoos beat us soundly down the stretch of that game. The games where we subbed the least were Pitt 2nd half and Syracuse (in both instances, we played an 8-man rotation), and we beat the Panthers soundly down the stretch and acquitted ourselves really well down the stretch against the Orange, making a comeback and giving them heck in OT, in a game many are calling the best of the college season. So, while the coaches have a responsibility to ensure the players have enough energy throughout the game, players gotta play and determine the outcome with their play, good or bad.

[Newton_14]

Is there a consistency amount posters as to the players in each unit. Thoughts

I was a fan of the platoon/line changes that were rolled out in the UVA game, but a bigger fan of using all 11 guys in the rotation, and keeping the minutes of the top players right at or below 30mpg. I knew K would quickly move away from the line changes (he did in the 3rd game) and feared he would shorten the rotation back down (he did in the Syracuse game. Josh and Matt got little minutes, Semi got none)

However, he did go 10 deep again in the Wake game, with Josh and Matt seeing time in both halves in more than token minutes, but unfortunately all 3 of Semi's minutes came in garbage time. Prior to the Syracuse game, K had gotten Semi in there for small minutes in non-garbage time to "get his feet wet" so to speak, which to me can be very helpful. First it gives the marginal player (at this point in his/their career) a small amount of experience of playing during minutes when the game pressure is high, and two, it gives a player a small amount of confidence that the coach is willing to play him without fear of screwing up what the team is trying to do. So I like that a lot even if it is 1 or 2 minutes in one or both halves.

I really hope K goes back to using all 11 players (even if Semi only gets 2-4 mpg) and keeping Jabari, Rodney, and Quinn's minutes closer to 30mpg and below rather than closer to 35mpg and above. I have felt all year long he was playing Quinn too many minutes which both hurt Quinn's performance and also kept minutes for Andre, Tyler, Rasheed, and Matt too low. Easier to get those guys more minutes across 3 positions than just 2.

As to your question about which guys to pair up. While I liked it a lot exactly as he had it when the line changes were a thing, I really, really like a backcourt of Rasheed/Tyler, Rasheed/Matt, and to a lesser degree Rasheed/Quinn with Rasheed defending the point on defense, but Quinn playing the point on offense.

So something like
Starters
Rasheed
Tyler
Rodney
Jabari
Amile

Squad A (Coming in at the 15 minute mark)
Quinn
Matt
Andre
Josh
MP3

After the under 12 TO, bring back a mix of players that played at a high level during their first run. If Andre is on, he definitely comes back in, and depending on who else performed well, Andre is at the 3 with Hood at the 2, or Andre at the 3 with Hood at the 4.

If Squad A makes a second appearance late in the second half go with
Quinn
Matt
Andre
Semi
MP3

Then finish the half with the 5 players playing the best, recognizing foul trouble may dictate who is in there. In the second half, I am fine with only using the Squad A line change one time early on, just to give the starters a rest before winning time comes up at the under 12 TO. Totally fine with no more than one line substitution in the 2nd half, and to be honest we all know K is not likely to do it in the 2nd half at all anymore unless he is just totally peeved at how the 5 current players on the floor are playing as a unit. If he feels all 5 are mucking it up, I feel he won't hesitate at all to send in 5 new players.

The beauty of all this is one, K's willingness to trust the players an assistants and be willing to play all 10 or 11 guys, and two, the players have responded to it positively and shown K they can play at a high level with little to no drop off, and help this team win. Lastly it just makes for a deep and talented team that can cause teams with a short bench trouble by constantly keeping them under heavy defensive pressure full court on every possession, and then throwing just a multitude of offensive looks at them when we have the ball. Makes it more difficult for opposing teams to game plan to try and stop our offense. They never know which 2 or 4 Duke kids are going to be killing them offfensively.

Despite falling just short in our 3 games against Top 5 opponents, and the two terrible losses when K was knocked back emotionally, this has still been a very enjoyable team to watch develop. They likely have no shot at finishing first in the ACC Regular Season, which while disappointing, does not mean much other than seeding in the ACC Tourney and to be honest as good as the top 4 teams are, there is no real advantage of being the 1 seed and getting the 4 seed. The 4 is going to be very similar to the 2 seed anyway. But I will say this. They may or may not win the ACC Championship, and may or may not make the Final Four and have a shot at the title, but they are darn well going to have a say in both matters.

One other thing. Not sure if anyone else has picked up on this, and it is much easier to pick up on it if you are at the games in Cameron, but Wojo is handling most of the subbing. K does it some too, but Wojo does it a lot. Now I am sure the staff talks it over at length during planning pre-game, but Wojo makes a heck of a lot of the sub decisions without ever looking a K ahead of time. He just looks down the bench, and tells players to go in and who to go in for. I seem to recall Collins doing a lot of that in recent years as well. K, grooming leaders. I think it's great.

[Clay Feet POF]

I think you being in CIS gives you a better scope of what’s happening than us TV viewers. I tend to agree will all of your post, I think you capture a real solid movement of our players while developing our lesser used players, The thing I notice is that Rasheed and Andre seem to work so well together.

I would like to see more of Rasheed and Andre together. Andre seem to move to the basket better when Rasheed is there.

Thanks for your post.

[Troublemaker]

I really hope K goes back to using all 11 players (even if Semi only gets 2-4 mpg) and keeping Jabari, Rodney, and Quinn's minutes closer to 30mpg and below rather than closer to 35mpg and above.

I think this is the key, Newton. When the line changes started, the coaches remarked several times that playing deeper helped because previously, players had been conserving their energy on defense since they knew they would end up playing huge minutes, and that was the reason for the early ACC struggles.

Individual player names were not mentioned, but looking back at the box scores of those first 3 ACC games against ND, GT, and Clemson, the remarks could only have been referring to Quinn and Rodney. Quinn played >35 min all 3 games, and Rodney played >35 min in 2 games. (Jabari was still in his slump and was not playing huge minutes in those games. Nor did other Duke players receive huge minutes.)

Furthermore, prior to the UVA game, Quinn had played >35 min in 9 games. Likewise, prior to UVA, Rodney had played >35 min in 7 games. Quinn and Rodney had been the players who were, by far, the most likely to play 38-40 min in competitive games.

But that's all changed recently. From UVA on, only in one game, against Syracuse, did Quinn and Rodney play >35 min (and that was an OT game with foul trouble for the bigs, so we played small a lot). The reduction in minutes has obviously helped Rodney, who has really been coming on as a wing defender recently. And it would probably be helping Quinn, too, if he were fully healthy and/or not in a shooting/mental slump.

So, I believe there is really only one rule being followed for the rotation: Play your best players 35 minutes max except for very rare and/or very unusual circumstances. This can be accomplished with or without line changes and also by playing 10 players or 9 players or even 8 players, whatever floats Coach K's boat in a particular game.



Despite falling just short in our 3 games against Top 5 opponents, and the two terrible losses when K was knocked back emotionally, this has still been a very enjoyable team to watch develop. They likely have no shot at finishing first in the ACC Regular Season, which while disappointing, does not mean much other than seeding in the ACC Tourney and to be honest as good as the top 4 teams are, there is no real advantage of being the 1 seed and getting the 4 seed. The 4 is going to be very similar to the 2 seed anyway. But I will say this. They may or may not win the ACC Championship, and may or may not make the Final Four and have a shot at the title, but they are darn well going to have a say in both matters.

Well said, brother.



One other thing. Not sure if anyone else has picked up on this, and it is much easier to pick up on it if you are at the games in Cameron, but Wojo is handling most of the subbing. K does it some too, but Wojo does it a lot. Now I am sure the staff talks it over at length during planning pre-game, but Wojo makes a heck of a lot of the sub decisions without ever looking a K ahead of time. He just looks down the bench, and tells players to go in and who to go in for. I seem to recall Collins doing a lot of that in recent years as well. K, grooming leaders. I think it's great.

That's very interesting! Thanks for mentioning it. I had been wondering how Coach K could look so natural shuttling players in and out of the lineup, especially since typically he doesn't play this deep. Turns out, Wojo has been helping him make the subs!

[ICP]

Are there examples of college teams winning the tournament or making deep runs while relying consistently on these line changes? Seems kind of a risky move and gimmicky one at that. Good for one or two games, but I'd be very surprised to see that on a regular basis in the postseason

[throatybeard]

There's a reason it's 1A.

[jv001]

I was a fan of the platoon/line changes that were rolled out in the UVA game, but a bigger fan of using all 11 guys in the rotation, and keeping the minutes of the top players right at or below 30mpg.

I really hope K goes back to using all 11 players (even if Semi only gets 2-4 mpg) and keeping Jabari, Rodney, and Quinn's minutes closer to 30mpg and below rather than closer to 35mpg and above. I have felt all year long he was playing Quinn too many minutes which both hurt Quinn's performance and also kept minutes for Andre, Tyler, Rasheed, and Matt too low. Easier to get those guys more minutes across 3 positions than just 2.

As to your question about which guys to pair up. While I liked it a lot exactly as he had it when the line changes were a thing, I really, really like a backcourt of Rasheed/Tyler, Rasheed/Matt, and to a lesser degree Rasheed/Quinn with Rasheed defending the point on defense, but Quinn playing the point on offense.

So something like
Starters
Rasheed
Tyler
Rodney
Jabari
Amile

Squad A (Coming in at the 15 minute mark)
Quinn
Matt
Andre
Josh
MP3

After the under 12 TO, bring back a mix of players that played at a high level during their first run. If Andre is on, he definitely comes back in, and depending on who else performed well, Andre is at the 3 with Hood at the 2, or Andre at the 3 with Hood at the 4.

If Squad A makes a second appearance late in the second half go with
Quinn
Matt
Andre
Semi
MP3

Then finish the half with the 5 players playing the best, recognizing foul trouble may dictate who is in there. In the second half, I am fine with only using the Squad A line change one time early on, just to give the starters a rest before winning time comes up at the under 12 TO. Totally fine with no more than one line substitution in the 2nd half, and to be honest we all know K is not likely to do it in the 2nd half at all anymore unless he is just totally peeved at how the 5 current players on the floor are playing as a unit. If he feels all 5 are mucking it up, I feel he won't hesitate at all to send in 5 new players.

The beauty of all this is one, K's willingness to trust the players an assistants and be willing to play all 10 or 11 guys, and two, the players have responded to it positively and shown K they can play at a high level with little to no drop off, and help this team win. Lastly it just makes for a deep and talented team that can cause teams with a short bench trouble by constantly keeping them under heavy defensive pressure full court on every possession, and then throwing just a multitude of offensive looks at them when we have the ball. Makes it more difficult for opposing teams to game plan to try and stop our offense. They never know which 2 or 4 Duke kids are going to be killing them offfensively.

Despite falling just short in our 3 games against Top 5 opponents, and the two terrible losses when K was knocked back emotionally, this has still been a very enjoyable team to watch develop. They likely have no shot at finishing first in the ACC Regular Season, which while disappointing, does not mean much other than seeding in the ACC Tourney and to be honest as good as the top 4 teams are, there is no real advantage of being the 1 seed and getting the 4 seed. The 4 is going to be very similar to the 2 seed anyway. But I will say this. They may or may not win the ACC Championship, and may or may not make the Final Four and have a shot at the title, but they are darn well going to have a say in both matters.

One other thing. Not sure if anyone else has picked up on this, and it is much easier to pick up on it if you are at the games in Cameron, but Wojo is handling most of the subbing. K does it some too, but Wojo does it a lot. Now I am sure the staff talks it over at length during planning pre-game, but Wojo makes a heck of a lot of the sub decisions without ever looking a K ahead of time. He just looks down the bench, and tells players to go in and who to go in for. I seem to recall Collins doing a lot of that in recent years as well. K, grooming leaders. I think it's great.

Wonderful post on rotation/minutes and especially on Coach K's willingness to trust the players and assistants more. I really believe we played better defense when Coach K used the line change. I'm not saying he should go back to it exclusively but just use all 11 players if possible. I'm also not saying that players will be worn out come tourney time because of too many minutes. I am saying in my opinion, the players play better defense knowing they will get a breather. Nice to know about Wojo making the most substitutions. That's showing trust in him as well. GoDuke!

[Troublemaker]

One more thought about rotation going forward.

In Coach K's post-Wake presser, something he said that stood out to me: "Hopefully now as we’re entering into the last stages of these seniors’ careers, they step it up even more."

I think he's begun to rely on Tyler and Dre more than he had been.

In the line change era of 3 games, Tyler played 12, 15, 13 min while Dre played 12, 13, 10 min.

In the 4 games since, Tyler has played 25, 14, 17, 25 min while Dre has played 11, 15, 28, 19 min. Some of those increased minutes have come from Quinn, and some have come from Matt. I think when Quinn gets back to his normal self and presumably plays a few more minutes, it will knock Matt completely out of the rotation.

I think Josh's place as the 9th man in the rotation might be secure, though, given Coach K's comment.

So, going forward, my prediction would be a 9-man rotation of 5 perimeter + 4 bigs, with minutes spread such that no one is playing >35 min, except perhaps on rare occasions.

[Kedsy]

I think Josh's place as the 9th man in the rotation might be secure, though, given Coach K's comment.

Maybe, although the trend with Josh is the opposite of the trend with Tyler and Andre. In the line change games Josh played 7, 12, and 8 minutes, and in the four games since he only played 8, 4, 0, and 6.

[Duke4life92]

There's a reason it's 1A.Yes,i too like what seems to be working.Wether it is line shifts or play as many guys as needed for rest,i think coach knows more about what his team needs than i do.Go Duke GTHCASAP

[Saratoga2]

To me it doesn't matter if we are using substitution by line change or by heavy substitution. Perhaps line changes allows the coaches to select player pairings more consistently, but the idea of heavy substitution of any type seems to energize the team and allow for higher intensity defense while reducing the foul concerns. Clearly the coaches are more aware of what is going on with individual players game to game, so they are in a much better position to set the substitution basis then even the most experienced fan. The idea of heavy substitution when you have a very deep team seems to provide an advantage and should be maintained.

Typically when we have experienced players like Josh, Tyler and Quinn, we use them heavily at the beginning of the season and then adjust their time based on performance. Quinn is in a bit of a slump and his PT has been reduced. Tyler has played very well and his time has increased while Josh has been eclipsed by Amile. Marshall and even Semi may be better alternatives in certain circumstances. Obviously the goal is to win games but a secondary goal is player development. I personally feel in game experience gives young players the best chance of making significant development progress.

Another thought that impacts substitution is the need to match up. I for one don't like the line using our 2 small guards together, except in the end of game situation where we are holding onto a lead. Having good ball handlers and foul shooters in the game is more important than matching up to prevent the opponent scorers from having a size advantage. We can either play size against size or drive the opponent to go small to match our smaller quicker lineup. The coaches need to substitute based on what works.

We will need to do some soul searching about substitution methods before our next game with Syracuse.

[johnb]

There's a reason it's 1A.

Throatybeard’s DBR Manifesto/Pocket Reference http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?10527-DBR-Manifesto-%28AKA-Throaty-s-Handy-Pocket-Reference%29&highlight=pocket
–
"Read this and you can avoid having to actually read similar posted comments!
1) Koaching Koncerns
a) Krzyzewski’s management of the rotation will bite us/has bitten us in the I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.."

***

I'm sure K likes, trusts, and respects all of his current players (there have been a couple of guys in the past about whom he's probably had second thoughts, not that he ever mentioned such a thing in our many intimate chats. But, this year, everyone seems really solid. But I digress).

I really doubt that we go beyond an 8 man rotation as we enter the final phase of the year. The 8 might vary a bit, but I think we're getting to the phase where the coaches clearly believe that a tired Hood and Parker are better options than a rested someone else (and if they're not, they need to suck it up). He may also be making a serious decision about whether Rasheed can be an effective PG, thereby relegating Quinn to the 10 minute a game role. I don't think he spends much time of his February and March worrying that his decisions are going to hurt his players feelings or shake their confidence. He has a spectacular set of assistants who presumably provide more detailed feedback and perspective. As you'll recall from his comment to Andre at the end of the season before last ("you're off the team." Not, " how are you feeling?"). I love the guy, but he's not coaching 6 year old soccer where everyone gets equal time on the field. He's the winningest coach of all time because he recruits and plays his best players as much as they can tolerate, and if you flail (like Quinn is flailing a bit now), you don't really get the chance to work through it in games unless you're a needed superstar.

[Kedsy]

He may also be making a serious decision about whether Rasheed can be an effective PG, thereby relegating Quinn to the 10 minute a game role.

I agree with most of the rest of what you say, but do you really think there's any chance of Quinn being "relegat[ed]... to the 10 minute a game role"? I think that's absolutely crazy. I can't imagine Coach K is making a "serious decision" about this; I doubt he's entertained the notion for even a fraction of a second (unless Quinn is injured, but that's an entirely different ball of wax).

Earlier this season, when Andre didn't play (and it turns out he was hurt, but we didn't know that), people were saying that's it, he isn't going to play all year. Then when Rasheed dropped out of the rotation, some people suggested he might transfer because he wasn't getting back to big minutes this season. Now it's Quinn's turn for people to write him off. The only difference is this time the suggestion is even more unlikely than it was for the other two (and those predictions were both pretty unlikely).

[pfrduke]

I agree with most of the rest of what you say, but do you really think there's any chance of Quinn being "relegat[ed]... to the 10 minute a game role"? I think that's absolutely crazy. I can't imagine Coach K is making a "serious decision" about this; I doubt he's entertained the notion for even a fraction of a second (unless Quinn is injured, but that's an entirely different ball of wax).

Earlier this season, when Andre didn't play (and it turns out he was hurt, but we didn't know that), people were saying that's it, he isn't going to play all year. Then when Rasheed dropped out of the rotation, some people suggested he might transfer because he wasn't getting back to big minutes this season. Now it's Quinn's turn for people to write him off. The only difference is this time the suggestion is even more unlikely than it was for the other two (and those predictions were both pretty unlikely).

Seriously. In the past two seasons, Quinn has played fewer than 20 minutes precisely twice - 18 minutes in a rout against VT last season and 18 minutes against Wake on Tuesday. The notion that he'll start seeing 10 minutes a game is pretty silly. There is precedent for this, sort of, with Paulus in 2009, but there was a long stretch of that season during which his minutes were steadily reduced, which Quinn hasn't seen.

[Clay Feet POF]

While you are certainly right that a tired JB & RH being better than someone else, the bigger Q is HOW MUCH is the drop-off and can we live with it. If this is K’s most talented 10-11 group which I believe is true, (and next year looks to be better) then I think he will change his habits.

Also I disagree that K doesn’t worry that his Feb & Mar decision affect the confidence of his players. In the Wake game he seemed genuine in displaying encouraging words & gestures when he took Cook out. I also think Cook is very important and will certainly get more than 10 minutes per game.

[Troublemaker]

Clearly the coaches are more aware of what is going on with individual players game to game, so they are in a much better position to set the substitution basis then even the most experienced fan.

Another thought that impacts substitution is the need to match up. I for one don't like the line using our 2 small guards together, except in the end of game situation where we are holding onto a lead. Having good ball handlers and foul shooters in the game is more important than matching up to prevent the opponent scorers from having a size advantage. We can either play size against size or drive the opponent to go small to match our smaller quicker lineup. The coaches need to substitute based on what works.

Whoa, whoa, whoa! I dunno know about that. Let's not sell yourself short!



We will need to do some soul searching about substitution methods before our next game with Syracuse.

Melodramatic!

[Kedsy]

While you are certainly right that a tired JB & RH being better than someone else, the bigger Q is HOW MUCH is the drop-off and can we live with it.

I disagree with this. Let's say, arbitrarily, that Jabari is a "5" when he's rested and a "3" when he's tired. That's a big dropoff (40%), but if the next alternative is a "2," then you still play Jabari in the crunch, because even though the dropoff is big, the difference between Jabari and the potential replacement is bigger.

[jv001]

I disagree with this. Let's say, arbitrarily, that Jabari is a "5" when he's rested and a "3" when he's tired. That's a big dropoff (40%), but if the next alternative is a "2," then you still play Jabari in the crunch, because even though the dropoff is big, the difference between Jabari and the potential replacement is bigger.

I think you play Jabari in the crunch even if he's tired. He may be a liability on defense if he's tired, but he makes up for it on offense. The use of the bench in earlier parts of the game, should insure Jabari is not tired come crunch time. However Coach K has not been hesitant in sitting Jabari at the end of close games. I believe that was for poor defense, not for being tired. I hope we are able to use our bench in this game because Duke is up by a comfortable margin. Get ready for the tarheels. GoDuke!

[Clay Feet POF]

I disagree with this. Let's say, arbitrarily, that Jabari is a "5" when he's rested and a "3" when he's tired. That's a big dropoff (40%), but if the next alternative is a "2," then you still play Jabari in the crunch, because even though the dropoff is big, the difference between Jabari and the potential replacement is bigger.

Well I can’t argue with your scenario, but maybe there are other scenario to explore. For one, as radical as the move to the Line changes was this year I don’t recall them being a big liability. Its just we have a small sample to examine and determine what are the limits.