Sources of Upside

[Troublemaker]

Hey Guys,

We're at the halfway mark of the conference season. The general feeling around here seems to be very positive about the team's recent play, and I think most people believe we haven't hit our ceiling yet, meaning we believe this team holds further upside.

So let's everyone together compile a list of these sources of upside. What can this team reasonably improve by the end of this season?

I'll start.

I would love to see Quinn break out of his shooting slump soon. This Duke team is already the best 3-pt shooting team we've ever had. And we're doing it despite the player with the most 3-pt attempts on the team having shot only 33%. Imagine how good we'd be if Quinn started hitting!

I would say Quinn breaking his shooting slump is a MINOR source of upside that has a PROBABLE likelihood of coming true.

What else? Let's compile this list. Thanks!

[jv001]

I want to see Jabari pass out of double teams more often. He's a good passer and draws a lot of attention from opposing teams. He should have more assists than he does. That's what I'd like to see improvement in. GoDuke!

[FerryFor50]

Hey Guys,

We're at the halfway mark of the conference season. The general feeling around here seems to be very positive about the team's recent play, and I think most people believe we haven't hit our ceiling yet, meaning we believe this team holds further upside.

So let's everyone together compile a list of these sources of upside. What can this team reasonably improve by the end of this season?

I'll start.

I would love to see Quinn break out of his shooting slump soon. This Duke team is already the best 3-pt shooting team we've ever had. And we're doing it despite the player with the most 3-pt attempts on the team having shot only 33%. Imagine how good we'd be if Quinn started hitting!

I would say Quinn breaking his shooting slump is a MINOR source of upside that has a PROBABLE likelihood of coming true.

What else? Let's compile this list. Thanks!

I think that's a good start. Quinn's shooting slump is a result of two things, I think -

1) His injured ankles

Less mobility and agility means fewer options to get create shots. That means settling for forced three pointers and not getting as open on drives, not to mention not feeling pain every time he lifts on his jumper. As Quinn heals, we'll see better results.

2) Decision making

This plagued Quinn prior to his injuries. He tends to go into hero mode when we have plenty of other capable scorers to distribute to. If Quinn was the only option, I'd be ok with some of his decisions, but when you have Rodney Hood, Jabari Parker and Amile Jefferson on the floor with you most of the game, you should have more assists than shot attempts.

For my "upside" contributions....

1) Rodney Hood attacking the rim more aggressively.

Hood, for the most part, plays with finesse. He prefers jumpers, and when he does drive, he contorts a lot.

However, we saw at the end of the Syracuse game that Hood has some hops and can attack the basket aggressively. I'd like to see that more. Parker already attacks the basket with purpose, but if Duke could get Hood to do the same, they'd be in better shape.

MEDIUM upside. DECENT likelihood.

2) Sulaimon starts hitting his layups

Sulaimon does a GREAT job of getting the basket. He doesn't finish very well, though. If he starts finishing better.... HIGH upside. DECENT likelihood of happening.

[firstpost]

Duke's upside at this point coincides directly with the improvement of team based skills such as passing/ball movement on the offensive and defensive ends. The individual talent is obviously there. I believe we will see less and less isolations as the season goes on, and more easy buckets that result from crisp/quick passes. I think it's also safe to say that offensive ball movement will translate to team defense on the other side of the ball.

I'm really excited for this team.


I want to see Jabari pass out of double teams more often. He's a good passer and draws a lot of attention from opposing teams. He should have more assists than he does. That's what I'd like to see improvement in. GoDuke!

[Kfanarmy]

Assists, assists, assists. That is one of the greatest measures of teamwork on offense.

Interior defense is still a work in progress. Gotta get hands in the passing lane; gotta get hands on the ball, and gotta protect the rim better. KenPom has Duke at 85th in AdjDef. In raw ppg allowed they are tied at 75. I think I saw them at 100 in Defensive Efficiency. SIGNIFICANT opportunities to improve there.

[johnb]

Playing like we do now, I'd guess we'd lose a tough game during the second weekend. Respectable but a little disappointing.

To get to the final weekend and have a chance to win it all, I'd say everybody is potentially crucial, but what fun is that sort of comment? Instead:

Rodney and Jabari need to consistently show that they are the best players on the court. Ie, we should be shaking our heads in disbelief every few minutes rather than a few times per game. They need to demoralize the guys who are unable to effectively guard them, leading to other players hedging towards them, thereby freeing up our other guys for 3's and dunks. They're not rookies to the team anymore. If they are actually ready to go pro early, now's the time to prove it.

Quinn needs to be more effective in the half court against really good defensive teams. Without such a demonstration, my hunch is that the coaches will pencil in Tyus as next year's starter alongside Rasheed (who seemed fairly adept as playmaker against Syracuse).

Marshall needs to be Zoubek. If the rest of the guys ramp up their games a bit, this one could be the single most important step forward. If everybody stays static, a Plumlee bump will be fun but less crucial since we'll be losing in the round of 16.

I don't, offhand, know how those things can be accomplished, but no one has ever said I know anything about basketball, so I feel free to opine.

[roywhite]

I think Jabari is on the right track, and has totally bought into the team concept.

I'm looking for continued improvement in his shot selection (more near the basket or going to the basket), some of these shots connecting more often, and frankly, I'd like to see him get a few more calls down low.

An early prediction -- I think Jabari has a monster game vs Syracuse when they come to town later this month; he's the guy to crack their zone (mostly from inside).

[Kedsy]

It's funny to me that practically every comment so far has been about offense, when we have the best adjusted offensive efficiency in the history of Pomeroy. And the one comment about defense has been about interior defense, which I don't think is anywhere near our most important issue on D.

So my "source of upside" is team defense. Continue to get better at communication and positioning; hedging, helping, and rotating. Turning people over more, like we did against FSU and NC State. If our defense can be a source of fear for the opponent, we'll be a terror in the tournament.


Marshall needs to be Zoubek. If the rest of the guys ramp up their games a bit, this one could be the single most important step forward. If everybody stays static, a Plumlee bump will be fun but less crucial since we'll be losing in the round of 16.

Another thing that I think is funny is how Brian Zoubek has risen to legend status on these boards, when during the 2009-2010 season most posters here spent most of the season calling for him to ride the pine, at least until his "breakout" game against Maryland. What people don't seem to understand is Brian had been performing at that level all season (and much of the previous season), and the only significant difference from the Maryland game on was his minutes increased, from 15.2 mpg to 23.9 mpg. His per minute and tempo-free stats and his defense didn't take a jump, it just looked that way because he played almost 60% more minutes.

No, Marshall doesn't "need" to be Zoubek. Which is a good thing because it isn't going to happen, at least not this year. His minutes have already jumped from 4.3 mpg to 11 mpg since the Virginia game, and I'd be surprised if they take another big jump. But more importantly, Marshall's current abilities and stats (per minute and/or tempo-free) and especially his defense are nowhere near what Brian Zoubek had been accomplishing before the jump.

Now johnb is certainly not the first person to say this -- I don't mean to single him out -- and he's also not the first person to say things like, "[i]f everyone stays static... we'll be losing in the round of 16," but that's not how the NCAA tournament works.

We are currently #3 in Pomeroy and #2 in Sagarin Predictor, and that includes the early season games when we weren't nearly as good as we are now. Those numbers suggest that if "everyone stays static" we'll play in the Final Four, although of course that's not how the tournament works either.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

Jefferson is where the team takes the biggest step forward, IMO.

He's playing stronger inside and his confidence continues to grow. I like his bounce, and even tho he's relatively thin, he's playing stronger inside now.

Duke has plenty of wing play necessary to go far, but teams are going to keep pounding it inside and drive to the rim, so without his solid play inside I think Duke will have problems with the best teams.

The past few games he's given Duke that player down low that teams have to respect, along with Parker when he plays the post, and that creates the spacing that plays to Duke's strength on the wings.

[Wander]

Try really hard to not get in foul trouble, and if we unfortunately do, someone physically restrain Coach K from putting Andre Dawkins at the 4 spot.

[Clay Feet POF]

My upside List:

1) More minutes for our bench, in the SU game I could not believe Cook had 40 minutes and Matt had 0. So much talent to be developed

2 Hoping Semi gets meaningful minutes against softer teams He was such an offensive weapon in Kansas High school, let’s open up his minutes and see what he can contribute under games conditions. ( Practice evaluation is not a perfect science let’s not anything fall through the cracks)

3) Seems there is more efficiency when Rasheed and Quinn are on different 5’s Rasheed looks like a much better driver with another guard.

In a nutshell “Reaping the benefits of a 10-11 rotation,”

[UrinalCake]

I don't mind Quinn taking a three when he's wide open, but I'd like to see his improvement come from better decision-making, better distribution of the ball in ways that help his teammates score (rather than just passing around the perimeter), and better emotional maturity.

Defensively I'd love for us to create some more turnovers or at least apply good pressure without fouling. I think that's our best chance at overcoming our poor interior defense. We're still allowing too many blow-by's on the perimeter.

Would like for MP3 to take another leap and be able to give us 10-15 minutes of solid play. If he could go from just "not making mistakes" to "making a positive impact" then that would be huge.

Also if Amile could develop a 10-15 foot jump shot that would really round out his game, though I don't see that happening until the offseason.

[azzefkram]

2) Decision making

This plagued Quinn prior to his injuries. He tends to go into hero mode when we have plenty of other capable scorers to distribute to. If Quinn was the only option, I'd be ok with some of his decisions, but when you have Rodney Hood, Jabari Parker and Amile Jefferson on the floor with you most of the game, you should have more assists than shot attempts.


This is bull malarkey. Quinn tends to go into "hero mode" no more so than Rodney, Jabari, or Sheed. He is 4th in FGA/40 and shares 4th with Sheed in USG%. His USG% has been trending down slightly most of year. His eFG is better than Sheed's and on par with Jabari's. You'd have to go back to Duhon in '04 to find someone not named Quinn who averaged more than Quinn's 5.5 AST/game. His 3:1 A:TO ratio is on par with Scheyer in '10. His assists are fine.

[jv001]

This is bull malarkey. Quinn tends to go into "hero mode" no more so than Rodney, Jabari, or Sheed. He is 4th in FGA/40 and shares 4th with Sheed in USG%. His USG% has been trending down slightly most of year. His eFG is better than Sheed's and on par with Jabari's. You'd have to go back to Duhon in '04 to find someone not named Quinn who averaged more than Quinn's 5.5 AST/game. His 3:1 A:TO ratio is on par with Scheyer in '10. His assists are fine.

I think the only time Quinn goes into hero mode is at the end of the shot clock. Rasheed or Hood needs the ball in their hands with the shot clock winding down. Sometimes it Quinn's fault he has the ball in his hands in this situation(too much idle dribbling), but sometimes it's because no one is coming to meet the ball or too much standing around.

[FerryFor50]

This is bull malarkey. Quinn tends to go into "hero mode" no more so than Rodney, Jabari, or Sheed. He is 4th in FGA/40 and shares 4th with Sheed in USG%. His USG% has been trending down slightly most of year. His eFG is better than Sheed's and on par with Jabari's. You'd have to go back to Duhon in '04 to find someone not named Quinn who averaged more than Quinn's 5.5 AST/game. His 3:1 A:TO ratio is on par with Scheyer in '10. His assists are fine.

The point is he should NEVER go into hero mode because he's not as good an offensive player as Jabari or Hood.

[ice-9]

I'm with Kedsy on team defense being by far the source of most upside. It's the little things - not fouling so much, hedging, switching, preventing penetration, providing help, getting hands up to make shots and passes difficult, boxing out, etc.

How good would this team be if we can just get our defensive efficiency in the top 20?

[MChambers]

And I'm with Kedsy and ice-9. I'm optimistic our defense will improve, because we have a lot of players that are young or new to Duke, and learning how to play Duke's man-to-man is a big change for them.

[Matches]

To me the thing that would improve us the most would be for our most talented player to resume being our best player.

Yea our offense is pretty terrific already but it can still get better. A resurgent Jabari might not add a lot of efficiency to the already-efficient offense, but he would draw fouls at a greater rate than we are currently, which has a number of benefits. Of course refs would have to blow the whistle occasionally when he gets creamed in the post.

I don't have the issues with Quinn that some do. His shot selection is not so good at times but otherwise he is a very good offensive player. He does not turn the ball over frequently, his A/TO is very good, and he does a good job of directing traffic. I'd like to see him get his shot back but shooters are up and down.

Defensively I think we've at least figured out our scheme. Jefferson's emergence has negated the need for Jabari to defend the 5, and I think in general we are on the upswing defensively. Improvement over the rest of the season will just come from repetition - guys playing together longer, learning each other's tendencies, and gelling more as a unit. Hood is improving by leaps and bounds on D from game to game, and Sulaimon has found his groove after a slow start.

[FerryFor50]

To me the thing that would improve us the most would be for our most talented player to resume being our best player.

Yea our offense is pretty terrific already but it can still get better. A resurgent Jabari might not add a lot of efficiency to the already-efficient offense, but he would draw fouls at a greater rate than we are currently, which has a number of benefits. Of course refs would have to blow the whistle occasionally when he gets creamed in the post.

I don't have the issues with Quinn that some do. His shot selection is not so good at times but otherwise he is a very good offensive player. He does not turn the ball over frequently, his A/TO is very good, and he does a good job of directing traffic. I'd like to see him get his shot back but shooters are up and down.

Defensively I think we've at least figured out our scheme. Jefferson's emergence has negated the need for Jabari to defend the 5, and I think in general we are on the upswing defensively. Improvement over the rest of the season will just come from repetition - guys playing together longer, learning each other's tendencies, and gelling more as a unit. Hood is improving by leaps and bounds on D from game to game, and Sulaimon has found his groove after a slow start.

For the record, I think Quinn is a very good offensive player as well. But I think Hood and Parker are better overall, especially of late. You can't have your starting PG go 2-12 from the field (1-8 from 3) with just 5 assists and expect to win games. Despite that, Duke came within 2 points of winning. Imagine if Quinn had taken maybe 6-8 shots instead, and gave Parker, Hood, Dawkins, etc a few extra attempts....

If you're a scoring PG, you probably should be the best scorer on the team. I'd put Cook at 3rd best overall.

[daveyro]

I want to see Jabari pass out of double teams more often. He's a good passer and draws a lot of attention from opposing teams. He should have more assists than he does. That's what I'd like to see improvement in. GoDuke!

Jabari is certainly a great, great player with unimaginable upside - but passing out of double teams down low is something that I think he can improve on. Many times he just goes straight up againt 2 or 3 trees. Or if he can't see to pass, a couple of pump fakes will draw a foul.

[Matches]

For the record, I think Quinn is a very good offensive player as well. But I think Hood and Parker are better overall, especially of late. You can't have your starting PG go 2-12 from the field (1-8 from 3) with just 5 assists and expect to win games. Despite that, Duke came within 2 points of winning. Imagine if Quinn had taken maybe 6-8 shots instead, and gave Parker, Hood, Dawkins, etc a few extra attempts....



There have been times this season when I thought Quinn kind of put his head down on offense and went hunting his shot, but I didn't feel that way Saturday night. Most if not all the shots he took seemed to be within the offense - they just weren't going down for him.

[Saratoga2]

Others have nailed things which could improve from the starters. I would like to see coach K utilize the bench even more and by doing so keep the guys fresher and avoid fouling out our key players.

1. In the case of Marshall, I would like to see him at least look for some offense rather then never to threaten. If the opponents think they might deal with him dunking or shooting a 10 footer, that would make them play more honestly on other options.

2. What happened to Matt? He is a good defender and is 6'4". He might have helped in the Syracuse game but saw almost no time. He made a couple of bad offensive decisions in other games but from his high school days, he was an effective scorer and might be a big help going forward.

3. Semi is getting no love at all. He is an excellent athlete with size and strength. Clearly outsiders do not see his progress in practice. All I have seen of him offensively is hit his free throws. I wonder if he might have helped in the Syracuse game inside? We saw Andre try but he just was not big or strong enough to compete and Josh didn't do a good job when he was in. Why not a little of Semi?

[azzefkram]

The point is he should NEVER go into hero mode because he's not as good an offensive player as Jabari or Hood.

Puhlease. Jabari, Rodney, Sheed and Quinn are elite/near elite players. They are expected to go into "hero" mode on occasion.


For the record, I think Quinn is a very good offensive player as well. But I think Hood and Parker are better overall, especially of late. You can't have your starting PG go 2-12 from the field (1-8 from 3) with just 5 assists and expect to win games. Despite that, Duke came within 2 points of winning. Imagine if Quinn had taken maybe 6-8 shots instead, and gave Parker, Hood, Dawkins, etc a few extra attempts....

If you're a scoring PG, you probably should be the best scorer on the team. I'd put Cook at 3rd best overall.

Nor can you have your PF go 6-16 with only 1 AST and 3 TOs while fouling out. Imagine if Tyler shoots the ball from 3ft instead of passing to Dre who is standing BEHIND the backboard. Imagine if Dre could actually cover Grant in OT. Imagine if Josh could catch a pass when he's standing 2ft from the basket. Imagine if Rodney could at least slow Fair down. Imagine if Rodney could make a simple inbounds pass instead of burning a timeout. Imagine Sheed doesn't go 4-7 from the charity stripe.

If Quinn is why we lost, then so are Jabari, Rodney, Tyler, Josh and Sheed.

[COYS]

So my "source of upside" is team defense. Continue to get better at communication and positioning; hedging, helping, and rotating. Turning people over more, like we did against FSU and NC State. If our defense can be a source of fear for the opponent, we'll be a terror in the tournament.


I agree that the team has the biggest upside on defense by far. To get a bit more specific with regards to team defense, I think that Jabari might be the individual with the most ability to boost the team defense. Amile has really come on recently on D. His rebounding, hedging, and rotations have all been really great. I give him a lot of credit with the team improving on that end of the floor. Jabari lags behind Amile in all of these areas (although he is also capable of putting up some nice rebounding numbers). Jabari often rotates while looking for the block rather than looking to get into position. He's good for one or two nice blocks here and there, but usually this means that instead of rotating as quickly as possible, he's timing his rotation so he can jump when the opposing player jumps for his shot. When he looks for the block, he's neither cutting off the opposing player with the ball nor is he in position to prevent a pass to a cutter or a big guy on the weakside. I don't mind Jabari trying to block shots, but I'd like to see those blocks be the result of him getting in the right position as fast as possible and THEN going for the block.

Jabari is also a little late to hedge from time to time. This makes it easier for the opposing guard to turn the corner and face the basket and it makes it far more difficult for our guards to have any hope of recovering. It also means that Jabari is often forced to switch onto the guard, which leaves the screening big open on a pick n' roll or a pick n' pop. I'd love to see Jabari begin to time his hedges better to reduce these situations.

If Jabari follows in Amile's footsteps and improves his hedging and rotation, it will go a long way to helping our team defense.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I agree - there is an incredible amount of upside left for this team. The Syracuse game really opened me eyes. I see the following upside:

1) Quinn: been said before but needs to be said again - Quinn needs better decision making, especially in the second half

2) Sulaimon: he has been playing some of his best ball of late. I would like to see him attack more on defense (really get into the opposing guard) and finish at the rim on offense. I've seen the most improvement from Sulaimon on this team in the last month.

3) Jabari: better decision makings and less hero ball. I love his offensive game but he needs to be patient and stop the one-on-one 3pt step backs.

4) MP3: better positioning and lack of butterfingers. He's playing his best ball of late, but I feel that he gets burned a lot and when he goes for rebounds, he often gets stripped.

5) Tyler, Hood, Jefferson, Dawkins: They have been playing their best ball. I have been 110% satisfied with their play. We can't ask them to do more.

[FerryFor50]

Puhlease. Jabari, Rodney, Sheed and Quinn are elite/near elite players. They are expected to go into "hero" mode on occasion.



Nor can you have your PF go 6-16 with only 1 AST and 3 TOs while fouling out. Imagine if Tyler shoots the ball from 3ft instead of passing to Dre who is standing BEHIND the backboard. Imagine if Dre could actually cover Grant in OT. Imagine if Josh could catch a pass when he's standing 2ft from the basket. Imagine if Rodney could at least slow Fair down. Imagine if Rodney could make a simple inbounds pass instead of burning a timeout. Imagine Sheed doesn't go 4-7 from the charity stripe.

If Quinn is why we lost, then so are Jabari, Rodney, Tyler, Josh and Sheed.

I wasn't implying Quinn was why we lost. I'm just saying that Quinn shouldn't be firing up 12 shots when he misses 10. And our PF went 6-16, but only took 1 three...

By contrast, Tyler Ennis went 3-5 from the field and had 9 assists.

Quinn's oRTG is 118.9 (19.7% usage) - 17.4 PER
Rodney's oRTG is 131.4 (23.3% usage) - 23.6 PER
Jabari's oRTG is 114 (33% usage) - 27.3 PER
Amile's oRTG is 136.8 (15.8% usage) - 23.8 PER
Andre Dawkins oRTG is 136.3 (24.9% usage) - 26.5 PER

By the stats, Quinn is less efficient than Rodney, Amile and Andre. Jabari is slightly less efficient than Quinn, but it'd be hard to argue that Quinn is the *better* offensive threat. And Quinn is the least efficient player out of that group by far.

It's obvious that nothing I say will change your mind on Quinn, so we can agree to disagree. (if only to avoid a 100 page thread)

[tux]

There have been times this season when I thought Quinn kind of put his head down on offense and went hunting his shot, but I didn't feel that way Saturday night. Most if not all the shots he took seemed to be within the offense - they just weren't going down for him.

I agree that I never thought Quinn took a really bad shot in the Syracuse game. That loose ball scramble where he collided with another Duke player in front of the Orange bench, leading to a Syracuse lay-up was a killer though. Not saying it was all Quinn's fault, but at that point we really really really needed a stop, more or less got it, and then allowed them a second-chance score. My eyes tell me that Quinn plays his worst when Duke gets up 3-5 baskets and he starts to hunt his shot outside the normal flow of the offense. It's like he's trying to put away the game on his own; on several occasions the other team will then make a run fueled by Quinn's poor decisions. And then he'll have that really bad trip down the court where he's decided to double-down on all his previous mistakes... Quinn needs to realize that it's just as effective (and demoralizing to the other team) to run the offense to build on a decent lead in the same manner as before... no need for any new approaches. Against Syracuse, Duke was never really in that 3-5 basket zone, thus Quinn's more or less good decision-making... He just needed a couple of those threes to fall.

[FerryFor50]

I agree that I never thought Quinn took a really bad shot in the Syracuse game. That loose ball scramble where he collided with another Duke player in front of the Orange bench, leading to a Syracuse lay-up was a killer though. Not saying it was all Quinn's fault, but at that point we really really really needed a stop, more or less got it, and then allowed them a second-chance score. My eyes tell me that Quinn plays his worst when Duke gets up 3-5 baskets and he starts to hunt his shot outside the normal flow of the offense. It's like he's trying to put away the game on his own; on several occasions the other team will then make a run fueled by Quinn's poor decisions. And then he'll have that really bad trip down the court where he's decided to double-down on all his previous mistakes... Quinn needs to realize that it's just as effective (and demoralizing to the other team) to run the offense to build on a decent lead in the same manner as before... no need for any new approaches. Against Syracuse, Duke was never really in that 3-5 basket zone, thus Quinn's more or less good decision-making... He just needed a couple of those threes to fall.

I'd argue that Quinn's shooting *and* decision making in the Syracuse game was affected by his ankles. He wasn't able to move like normal, so likely dialed it back on his play. He made fewer "hero ball" plays, but also didn't shoot as well because he was injured.

Ideally, a healthy Quinn that makes the types of decisions he made against Syracuse would be what we'd see. But I think that any player that has as off a night as Quinn did needs to look for his teammates more often.

[tux]

I'd argue that Quinn's shooting *and* decision making in the Syracuse game was affected by his ankles. He wasn't able to move like normal, so likely dialed it back on his play. He made fewer "hero ball" plays, but also didn't shoot as well because he was injured.

Ideally, a healthy Quinn that makes the types of decisions he made against Syracuse would be what we'd see. But I think that any player that has as off a night as Quinn did needs to look for his teammates more often.

Except K has always given guys a green(-ish) light when it comes to open looks. If Quinn is 1-5, should he NOT take the 7th one? In retrospect, I guess we'd all say "Yes!" But it becomes a little bit like Monday-morning quarterbacking. Quinn could have hit his last three -- I mean, on each of Tyler's threes I was gritting my teeth until they went in... If he went 1-3 or 2-3 and we lost in regulation, this board would be full of people asking why Tyler Thornton is shooting threes in the 2nd half. In short, there are legitimate reasons to pass up shots based on time and score, but in general I support K's strategy of trusting his guys to make shots when open. I care less about the shots per se and more about moving the ball, making good decisions, limiting turnovers while still be aggressive etc.

[FerryFor50]

Except K has always given guys a green(-ish) light when it comes to open looks. If Quinn is 1-5, should he NOT take the 7th one? In retrospect, I guess we'd all say "Yes!" But it becomes a little bit like Monday-morning quarterbacking. Quinn could have hit his last three -- I mean, on each of Tyler's threes I was gritting my teeth until they went in... If he went 1-3 or 2-3 and we lost in regulation, this board would be full of people asking why Tyler Thornton is shooting threes in the 2nd half. In short, there are legitimate reasons to pass up shots based on time and score, but in general I support K's strategy of trusting his guys to make shots when open. I care less about the shots per se and more about moving the ball, making good decisions, limiting turnovers while still be aggressive etc.

Yea, I understand that. I don't have a huge problem with Cook shooting. I just think players know when they're having off nights and should look to teammates having better nights. I'm a HUGE Cook fan, don't get me wrong. I just know that Duke is at their best when he's getting everyone involved and he's hitting his shots. Until he's fully healthy, I don't think he'll be as effective scoring.

[tux]

Yea, I understand that. I don't have a huge problem with Cook shooting. I just think players know when they're having off nights and should look to teammates having better nights. I'm a HUGE Cook fan, don't get me wrong. I just know that Duke is at their best when he's getting everyone involved and he's hitting his shots. Until he's fully healthy, I don't think he'll be as effective scoring.

Good point. If Quinn knows he's operating at less than 100%, it would make sense for him to lean on his teammates more on the offensive end.

Moving on. I think the Wake game will be very interesting in terms of where the team is on their learning curve. Hopefully, they'll take another step forward. That said, you'd half-expect a team to struggle some coming off such an epic battle. Syracuse is @ND tonight, which will be interesting for the same reason -- hugh win, just moved into #1 -- my guess is that they win but play poorly.

[DavidBenAkiva]

As others have pointed out, our biggest source of upside has to be on the defensive side of the ball. In my opinion, our jump this year after the Clemson game came when we committed to defensive rebounding. In no specific order, here's where we can make the jump from very good to elite:

1) Defensive rebounding
2) Preventing dribble penetration - forcing jump shots
3) Blocked shots
4) Forcing turnovers

On offense, there's not much new to be said on this thread. We have the most efficient offense in the country at the moment, but there still seems like room for growth. How unbelievable is it to be in that position? Off the top of my head, Jabari could return to the uber-efficient person he was earlier this year and maybe distribute the ball a little more. Cook could find his shooting stroke again and maybe add some more dribble penetration of his own. Marshall could post up and at least make the defense respect him a little. These, in my mind, have minor upside to them.

To me, the biggest offensive upside is getting Jabari, Rodney, and Rasheed to perform at a high level at the same time. Cook is the one that needs to instigate that. Everything else - Dawkins, Jefferson, and Thornton's open looks, for example - feed off of those four players in some way. Quin and Rasheed slash to the basket and find the open man on the perimeter. Rodney and Jabari get to the paint and dish it off to a cutting or open Amile. If those four core players are consistently attacking the basket in some way, our offense is going to click.

[azzefkram]

I wasn't implying Quinn was why we lost. I'm just saying that Quinn shouldn't be firing up 12 shots when he misses 10. And our PF went 6-16, but only took 1 three...

The "imagine" sort of does imply. You also conveniently forgot that Jabari hoisted up 16 shots, many into double and triple coverage with only one assist. I think Jabari and Rodney are outstanding players but they are far more guilty of "hero" mode than Quinn. Rodney, in particular, reminds me of Austin. He doesn't have Austin's first step but he is a much better shooter and finisher.


By contrast, Tyler Ennis went 3-5 from the field and had 9 assists.

Ennis had a good game but 3 of those assists came in OT when he was feeding a for all intents and purposes unguarded Grant.



Quinn's oRTG is 118.9 (19.7% usage) - 17.4 PER
Rodney's oRTG is 131.4 (23.3% usage) - 23.6 PER
Jabari's oRTG is 114 (33% usage) - 27.3 PER
Amile's oRTG is 136.8 (15.8% usage) - 23.8 PER
Andre Dawkins oRTG is 136.3 (24.9% usage) - 26.5 PER

By the stats, Quinn is less efficient than Rodney, Amile and Andre. Jabari is slightly less efficient than Quinn, but it'd be hard to argue that Quinn is the *better* offensive threat. And Quinn is the least efficient player out of that group by far.

So stats are valid when they fit your narrative but invalid when they don't. Good to know. You can't say that Quinn is less efficient than Rodney, Amile and Dre according to the stats but then say that the stat doesn't matter with respect to Jabari.

Here's a few stats for you. Duke has the #1 rated O according to KenPom and is 7th in turnover%. Our starting PG plays nearly 34mpg. If Quinn made as many questionable decisions as you and many others on this board claim, do you think Coach K would play him that much? Do you think that Duke would have the #1 rated O?

Quinn makes some WTF plays but so does everyone not named Amile. Can we have a moratorium on the Quinn makes bad decisions meme? If people can be called out for harping on Josh and Tyler's shortcomings, can't we show the same for Quinn?

[tommy]

Others have nailed things which could improve from the starters. I would like to see coach K utilize the bench even more and by doing so keep the guys fresher and avoid fouling out our key players.

1. In the case of Marshall, I would like to see him at least look for some offense rather then never to threaten. If the opponents think they might deal with him dunking or shooting a 10 footer, that would make them play more honestly on other options.

I'm pretty sure if Marshall Plumlee caught a pass in the lane and fired up a face-up 10-footer, the entire internets would crash from the overload created on the DBR boards protesting the bonehead play. Heck, we practically get that around here when Josh Hairston shoots a jumpshot, and he's actually made some in his career. Plumlee needs to develop the ability to post up strong, put his hand in the air, catch an entry pass cleanly, and make a strong and coordinated back-to-the-basket move without travelling. If any of our inside players should be thinking about shooting a ten footer in the lane, it should be Amile.


2. What happened to Matt? He is a good defender and is 6'4". He might have helped in the Syracuse game but saw almost no time. He made a couple of bad offensive decisions in other games but from his high school days, he was an effective scorer and might be a big help going forward.

Playing against that zone requires not only deft ball movement by our perimeter players, but also the ability to catch and shoot quickly and accurately when the opportunity presents itself and the zone has been distorted. Matt's release on his shot is odd, it is low, and it is a little slow, and would likely have proven problematic for him against Syracuse. And of course even when he has gotten his shot off this year, he has not been particularly accurate. Now maybe he could've helped defensively, but offensively, I don't think he would've.


3. Semi is getting no love at all. He is an excellent athlete with size and strength. Clearly outsiders do not see his progress in practice. All I have seen of him offensively is hit his free throws. I wonder if he might have helped in the Syracuse game inside? We saw Andre try but he just was not big or strong enough to compete and Josh didn't do a good job when he was in. Why not a little of Semi?

Yeah, Andre had no chance in there against Grant. But I don't think bringing in a totally untested freshman into the very late stages of a super-intense, high level game, on the road, before 35,000 screaming fans, against the #2 team in the nation, would exactly set Semi up for success. It had to be Marshall or Josh. Semi's time will come, but I don't think it was going to be late at Syracuse.

[FerryFor50]

The "imagine" sort of does imply. You also conveniently forgot that Jabari hoisted up 16 shots, many into double and triple coverage with only one assist. I think Jabari and Rodney are outstanding players but they are far more guilty of "hero" mode than Quinn. Rodney, in particular, reminds me of Austin. He doesn't have Austin's first step but he is a much better shooter and finisher.



Ennis had a good game but 3 of those assists came in OT when he was feeding a for all intents and purposes unguarded Grant.



So stats are valid when they fit your narrative but invalid when they don't. Good to know. You can't say that Quinn is less efficient than Rodney, Amile and Dre according to the stats but then say that the stat doesn't matter with respect to Jabari.

Here's a few stats for you. Duke has the #1 rated O according to KenPom and is 7th in turnover%. Our starting PG plays nearly 34mpg. If Quinn made as many questionable decisions as you and many others on this board claim, do you think Coach K would play him that much? Do you think that Duke would have the #1 rated O?

Quinn makes some WTF plays but so does everyone not named Amile. Can we have a moratorium on the Quinn makes bad decisions meme? If people can be called out for harping on Josh and Tyler's shortcomings, can't we show the same for Quinn?

Quinn is less efficient than Jabari. That's what the PER is for. The stats are valid, regardless.

Quinn scores more points per 100 than Parker (oRTG). My point was that it is hard to argue that Quinn is a better scorer than Jabari, talent-wise. Jabari is also a freshman, while Quinn is a junior and should know better. I've criticized Jabari plenty on these boards, too. He definitely needs to pass out of double teams more and look for open teammates. But I'd still rather that Parker goes 6-16 (with only 1 three point attempt) than Cook going 2-12 (and 1-8 from 3).

Yes, Quinn doesn't turn the ball over. I get that. I never mentioned that he does. My whole point is that Duke would be even better on offense with Quinn as a distributor more than a scorer. (Yes, even better than their current #1 ranking - there is always room for improvement)

I'm not sure where this narrative of me saying that Quinn makes nothing but bad decisions comes from. I just said he could cut down on some of the bad decisions (ie. hero ball, forcing shots when he's not healthy).

People don't harp as much on Tyler and Josh's shortcomings because 1) they don't handle the ball as much and 2) they don't play as much. They are role players.

[jv001]

I agree that the team has the biggest upside on defense by far. To get a bit more specific with regards to team defense, I think that Jabari might be the individual with the most ability to boost the team defense. Amile has really come on recently on D. His rebounding, hedging, and rotations have all been really great. I give him a lot of credit with the team improving on that end of the floor. Jabari lags behind Amile in all of these areas (although he is also capable of putting up some nice rebounding numbers). Jabari often rotates while looking for the block rather than looking to get into position. He's good for one or two nice blocks here and there, but usually this means that instead of rotating as quickly as possible, he's timing his rotation so he can jump when the opposing player jumps for his shot. When he looks for the block, he's neither cutting off the opposing player with the ball nor is he in position to prevent a pass to a cutter or a big guy on the weakside. I don't mind Jabari trying to block shots, but I'd like to see those blocks be the result of him getting in the right position as fast as possible and THEN going for the block.

Jabari is also a little late to hedge from time to time. This makes it easier for the opposing guard to turn the corner and face the basket and it makes it far more difficult for our guards to have any hope of recovering. It also means that Jabari is often forced to switch onto the guard, which leaves the screening big open on a pick n' roll or a pick n' pop. I'd love to see Jabari begin to time his hedges better to reduce these situations.

If Jabari follows in Amile's footsteps and improves his hedging and rotation, it will go a long way to helping our team defense.

My first upside was Jabari to be a better passer out of double teams. My 2nd is Jabari to continue to improve on defense. While JP has improved, he still has room to get better. He still losses his man, sometimes late getting back down court and sometimes doesn't play the pick and role correctly. Of our first 6 players, I think Jabari is the weakest defender we have. The good news is he has the Physically ability and basketball IQ to get much better. I'm not picking on Jabar. He's one of my favorite players and can do many good things offensively. It's obvious he wants to get better and is a team player. Just look at how he rooted for his team mates after he fouled out against Cuse. GoDuke!

[FerryFor50]

My first upside was Jabari to be a better passer out of double teams. My 2nd is Jabari to continue to improve on defense. While JP has improved, he still has room to get better. He still losses his man, sometimes late getting back down court and sometimes doesn't play the pick and role correctly. Of our first 6 players, I think Jabari is the weakest defender we have. The good news is he has the Physically ability and basketball IQ to get much better. I'm not picking on Jabar. He's one of my favorite players and can do many good things offensively. It's obvious he wants to get better and is a team player. Just look at how he rooted for his team mates after he fouled out against Cuse. GoDuke!

I also think he loses his man when he comes over to block shots. If the opponent misses, then that leaves his man wide open for the offensive board or wide open for a dish off.

I'd like to see Parker stay at home rather than try to block every shot. He's not a great shot blocker (just a 3.6% block rating)... I'd rather that he sticks to his guy.

[Channing]

Yeah, Andre had no chance in there against Grant. But I don't think bringing in a totally untested freshman into the very late stages of a super-intense, high level game, on the road, before 35,000 screaming fans, against the #2 team in the nation, would exactly set Semi up for success. It had to be Marshall or Josh. Semi's time will come, but I don't think it was going to be late at Syracuse.

I don't think Andre, himself, was the issue. The issue was that Andre had 4 fouls. I would have been fine had TT been bodying up Grant, and fouled him every time and made him earn it at the stripe (of course, Grant made everything, but perhaps law of averages would have kicked in). With Andre having to back down, it was an easy dunk every time.

Of course, first option would have been Plumlee or Hairston in there, but assuming that wasn't feasible, someone who could have fouled Grant would have been my second option.

[Listen to Quants]

There have been times this season when I thought Quinn kind of put his head down on offense and went hunting his shot, but I didn't feel that way Saturday night. Most if not all the shots he took seemed to be within the offense - they just weren't going down for him.

That's what I saw. He wasn't taking 28 ft shots, he wasn't taking contested 3s, but the ball just didn't drop. When he penetrates he usually makes excellent decisions, scoring well when he keeps it. Obviously I wish he hadn't missed so often in Syracuse but all you can ask of a good shooter is to take, what are for him, good shots. The exception of course is the end of the clock.

Maybe the ankles bothered him maybe just flukey.

[lotusland]

Except K has always given guys a green(-ish) light when it comes to open looks. If Quinn is 1-5, should he NOT take the 7th one? In retrospect, I guess we'd all say "Yes!" But it becomes a little bit like Monday-morning quarterbacking. Quinn could have hit his last three -- I mean, on each of Tyler's threes I was gritting my teeth until they went in... If he went 1-3 or 2-3 and we lost in regulation, this board would be full of people asking why Tyler Thornton is shooting threes in the 2nd half. In short, there are legitimate reasons to pass up shots based on time and score, but in general I support K's strategy of trusting his guys to make shots when open. I care less about the shots per se and more about moving the ball, making good decisions, limiting turnovers while still be aggressive etc.

Especially since Tyler's first shot was wide open from the corner but he bricked it into the side of the backboard. I definitely didn't see the three pointer barrage coming but I'm glad he didn't stop shooting. Wish he would have taken the layup too though.

[lotusland]

I don't think Andre, himself, was the issue. The issue was that Andre had 4 fouls. I would have been fine had TT been bodying up Grant, and fouled him every time and made him earn it at the stripe (of course, Grant made everything, but perhaps law of averages would have kicked in). With Andre having to back down, it was an easy dunk every time.

Of course, first option would have been Plumlee or Hairston in there, but assuming that wasn't feasible, someone who could have fouled Grant would have been my second option.

Except that we needed Andre on offense. I think he scored 8 in OT and I don't think he gave up that much so we actually won the match-up

[roywhite]

Especially since Tyler's first shot was wide open from the corner but he bricked it into the side of the backboard. I definitely didn't see the three pointer barrage coming but I'm glad he didn't stop shooting. Wish he would have taken the layup too though.

Ha...yeah, almost forgot that first launch. Great job by Tyler to hit those 3 triples when they were really, really needed.

The 3-pt shooting percentages YTD:

Rodney Hood 44.7%
Andre Dawkins 47.2%
Rasheed Sulaimon 47.9%
Jabari Parker 37.7%
Quinn Cook 33.0%
Tyler Thornton 56.7% (17 for 30)

What a weapon the long ball is for this team.

[Channing]

Except that we needed Andre on offense. I think he scored 8 in OT and I don't think he gave up that much so we actually won the match-up

Hence why I would have liked to see someone who could contest Grant with a foul, since hav
ing a big wasn't feasible.

[throatybeard]

The title of this thread, Sources of Upside made me entertain the possibility that NBA GMs had found an underground fountain of this non-renewable resource, like somewhere in New Mexico, and they were currently staking claims to the site. Then they wouldn't have to draft Kwame Brown first.

[Troublemaker]

I want to see Jabari pass out of double teams more often. He's a good passer and draws a lot of attention from opposing teams. He should have more assists than he does. That's what I'd like to see improvement in. GoDuke!


Duke's upside at this point coincides directly with the improvement of team based skills such as passing/ball movement on the offensive and defensive ends. The individual talent is obviously there. I believe we will see less and less isolations as the season goes on, and more easy buckets that result from crisp/quick passes.


Assists, assists, assists. That is one of the greatest measures of teamwork on offense.


Jabari is certainly a great, great player with unimaginable upside - but passing out of double teams down low is something that I think he can improve on. Many times he just goes straight up againt 2 or 3 trees. Or if he can't see to pass, a couple of pump fakes will draw a foul.

Saw this mini-theme in this thread, and I agree. Jabari needs to become a better passer. Case in point, there was play in the first half against Cuse where he caught the ball along the left baseline, momentarily free. Grant hurried over from the right baseline to challenge, and all Jabari had to do was dump off to Amile who was stationed behind Grant for an easy layup. Instead, Jabari went up and got his shot packed by Grant for a tieup. If Jabari could turn 1 or 2 blocked shots / challenged shots into 1 or 2 more assists per game, that would be huge in a tight game.

I think he can do it. I think he WILL do it. Jabari's been a black hole for about a month now on offense, but earlier in the season, he did rack up assists at a much higher rate. He's capable. I think recently he's been focused on being aggressive and driving hard into defenders to get fouled. At some point, hopefully he puts everything together where he can make shots, draw fouls, and pass when appropriate. I still believe that March Jabari will be much better than January Jabari, and that's exciting. I agree with others in this thread; he's a huge source of upside for this team.

[gofurman]

It's funny to me that practically every comment so far has been about offense, when we have the best adjusted offensive efficiency in the history of Pomeroy. And the one comment about defense has been about interior defense, which I don't think is anywhere near our most important issue on D.

So my "source of upside" is team defense. Continue to get better at communication and positioning; hedging, helping, and rotating. Turning people over more, like we did against FSU and NC State. If our defense can be a source of fear for the opponent, we'll be a terror in the tournament.



Another thing that I think is funny is how Brian Zoubek has risen to legend status on these boards, when during the 2009-2010 season most posters here spent most of the season calling for him to ride the pine, at least until his "breakout" game against Maryland. What people don't seem to understand is Brian had been performing at that level all season (and much of the previous season), and the only significant difference from the Maryland game on was his minutes increased, from 15.2 mpg to 23.9 mpg. His per minute and tempo-free stats and his defense didn't take a jump, it just looked that way because he played almost 60% more minutes.

No, Marshall doesn't "need" to be Zoubek. Which is a good thing because it isn't going to happen, at least not this year. His minutes have already jumped from 4.3 mpg to 11 mpg since the Virginia game, and I'd be surprised if they take another big jump. But more importantly, Marshall's current abilities and stats (per minute and/or tempo-free) and especially his defense are nowhere near what Brian Zoubek had been accomplishing before the jump.

Now johnb is certainly not the first person to say this -- I don't mean to single him out -- and he's also not the first person to say things like, "[i]f everyone stays static... we'll be losing in the round of 16," but that's not how the NCAA tournament works.

We are currently #3 in Pomeroy and #2 in Sagarin Predictor, and that includes the early season games when we weren't nearly as good as we are now. Those numbers suggest that if "everyone stays static" we'll play in the Final Four, although of course that's not how the tournament works either.

This. Defense. We are awesome at O. Look at Syracuse scores over the season. We put 89 on a team that gives up 55-60 per game. More O is great but D is necessary. Bring back that OL' school duke D and we are title contenders. Rotation. Deny passing lanes etc. O shortcomings are easier to see (Jabari passing out of double teams, etc) but are far less important to this team. Perimiter D, hands in the passing lanes etc are what we need. We have all these long wings - Rasheed, Hood, Parker etc... Lets create some turnovers

[meowmix911]

Agree completely that marshall has to somehow channel BZ in order for us to win the whole she-bang, and I don't know how likely that is (then again we never saw it coming with BZ-either...


Playing like we do now, I'd guess we'd lose a tough game during the second weekend. Respectable but a little disappointing.

To get to the final weekend and have a chance to win it all, I'd say everybody is potentially crucial, but what fun is that sort of comment? Instead:

Rodney and Jabari need to consistently show that they are the best players on the court. Ie, we should be shaking our heads in disbelief every few minutes rather than a few times per game. They need to demoralize the guys who are unable to effectively guard them, leading to other players hedging towards them, thereby freeing up our other guys for 3's and dunks. They're not rookies to the team anymore. If they are actually ready to go pro early, now's the time to prove it.

Quinn needs to be more effective in the half court against really good defensive teams. Without such a demonstration, my hunch is that the coaches will pencil in Tyus as next year's starter alongside Rasheed (who seemed fairly adept as playmaker against Syracuse).

Marshall needs to be Zoubek. If the rest of the guys ramp up their games a bit, this one could be the single most important step forward. If everybody stays static, a Plumlee bump will be fun but less crucial since we'll be losing in the round of 16.

I don't, offhand, know how those things can be accomplished, but no one has ever said I know anything about basketball, so I feel free to opine.

[throatybeard]

This is neither here nor there, but meowmix911 clearly has what is obviously the greatest handle in the history of the board.

(No offense, DukeofURL...whatever happened to DukeofURL. OK, maybe DukeofURL is better).

[brevity]

This is neither here nor there, but meowmix911 clearly has what is obviously the greatest handle in the history of the board.

Cat food emergency? I don't get it.

[Li_Duke]

I did a silly little exercise of taking our top players statistics, scaling it to 36 minutes, and then looking for the best NBA comparable. It's not realistic at all, but it was fun.

Per 36:
Parker 47.1% FG in 17.2 attempts, 76% FT in 6.9 attempts, 1.6 3pt, 10.1 rb, 1.6 ast, 1.4 stl, 1.4 blk, 23.0 ppg
Dawkins 49.3% FG in 15 attempts, 86.7% FT in 3.3 attempts, 5.9 3pt, 3.5 rb, 1.2 ast, 1.2 stl, 0.5 blk, 23.5 ppg
Hood 50.0% FG in 12.4 attempts, 83.7% FT in 4.7 attempts, 2.3 3pt, 5 rb, 2.3 ast, 0.9 stl, 0.2 blk, 18.6 ppg
Cook 41.2% FG in 10.7 attempts, 84.5% FT in 2.7 attempts, 1.8 3pt, 2.4 rb, 5.7 ast, 1.5 stl, 0 blk, 13 ppg
Sulaimon 41.6% FG in 9.7 attempts, 77.2% in 5.7 attempts, 1.7 3pt, 3.6 rb, 3.8 ast, 1.1 stl, 0 blk, 14 ppg
Jefferson 64.9% FG in 7.4 attempts, 50% FT in 5.1 attempts, 0 3pt, 12 rb, 1.9 ast, 0.88 stl, 1.2 blk, 12.1 ppg
Thornton 48.9% FG in 3.8 attempts, 90.0% FT in 0.8 attempts, 1.5 3pt, 3.4 rb, 2.3 ast, 2.4 stl, 0 blk, 5.8 ppg

Parker provides elite rebounding, 3 point shooting, and high volume shooting with good efficiency. He gets to the free throw line, racks up steals and blocks, but doesn't pass the ball much. Compared (box score) statistically with NBA forwards, he's not at the Durant/Lebron level -- they both are MUCH better at involving their teammates in the offense. Carmelo is a good comparable, but Carmelo has Parker's efficiency at a much higher volume. Best comparables are Kevin Love, Paul George, and Rudy Gay -- although all 3 racks up more assists.

I was surprised to see that when Dawkins is in the game, he essentially profiles as a #1 option (2nd in attempts per 36 next to Parker). He is ridiculously efficient as a volume 3 point shooter. No one in the NBA makes more than 3.5 3 pointers per 36 minute, and only Kyle Korver, Wesley Matthews, and Durant makes more than 2 while keeping their FG% near 50%. Korver shoots at a much lower volume, and Durant has many more dimensions to his game. (Of course the NBA 3 is much longer and there are other college players with similar profiles as Dawkins)

Hood's box score statistics looks similar to Dawkins in that both are incredibly efficient 3 point shooters. Hood doesn't make nearly as many 3s per 36, but he's better in most other aspects of the game. Comparables are Chandler Parsons, Wesley Matthews, Arron Afflalo, and JJ Reddick.

Compared to Parker, Dawkins, and Hood, Cook is a much less efficient shooter. Due to the shorter shot clock, NBA PGs tend to rack up more assists, but since we're comparing box scores just for the fun of it, Cook's comparables would be Jameer Nelson, DJ Augustin, and Trey Burke. I'm sure Cook would find his comparables exciting.

None of Sulaimon's numbers jump off the page, except that he can really get to the free throw line. I looked for NBA combo shooting guards who can shoot 3s and get to the line. His comparables were Nick Young, Kemba Walker, Jamal Crawford, Brandon Knight, and Eric Gordon.

Jefferson is a low volume shooting, elite rebounder, who provides defense and is a big free throw liability. His NBA comparables were DeAndre Jordan, Andre Drummond, Andrew Bogut, Tyson Chandler, and Miles Plumlee.

Thornton is essentially a 3 and D guy (2.4 steals per 36 minutes stands out). It was pretty difficult finding anyone who stole the ball that much and shot primarily 3s at a low volume. Mario Chalmers is his best comparable.

[FerryFor50]

I did a silly little exercise of taking our top players statistics, scaling it to 36 minutes, and then looking for the best NBA comparable. It's not realistic at all, but it was fun.

Per 36:
Parker 47.1% FG in 17.2 attempts, 76% FT in 6.9 attempts, 1.6 3pt, 10.1 rb, 1.6 ast, 1.4 stl, 1.4 blk, 23.0 ppg
Dawkins 49.3% FG in 15 attempts, 86.7% FT in 3.3 attempts, 5.9 3pt, 3.5 rb, 1.2 ast, 1.2 stl, 0.5 blk, 23.5 ppg
Hood 50.0% FG in 12.4 attempts, 83.7% FT in 4.7 attempts, 2.3 3pt, 5 rb, 2.3 ast, 0.9 stl, 0.2 blk, 18.6 ppg
Cook 41.2% FG in 10.7 attempts, 84.5% FT in 2.7 attempts, 1.8 3pt, 2.4 rb, 5.7 ast, 1.5 stl, 0 blk, 13 ppg
Sulaimon 41.6% FG in 9.7 attempts, 77.2% in 5.7 attempts, 1.7 3pt, 3.6 rb, 3.8 ast, 1.1 stl, 0 blk, 14 ppg
Jefferson 64.9% FG in 7.4 attempts, 50% FT in 5.1 attempts, 0 3pt, 12 rb, 1.9 ast, 0.88 stl, 1.2 blk, 12.1 ppg
Thornton 48.9% FG in 3.8 attempts, 90.0% FT in 0.8 attempts, 1.5 3pt, 3.4 rb, 2.3 ast, 2.4 stl, 0 blk, 5.8 ppg

Parker provides elite rebounding, 3 point shooting, and high volume shooting with good efficiency. He gets to the free throw line, racks up steals and blocks, but doesn't pass the ball much. Compared (box score) statistically with NBA forwards, he's not at the Durant/Lebron level -- they both are MUCH better at involving their teammates in the offense. Carmelo is a good comparable, but Carmelo has Parker's efficiency at a much higher volume. Best comparables are Kevin Love, Paul George, and Rudy Gay -- although all 3 racks up more assists.

I was surprised to see that when Dawkins is in the game, he essentially profiles as a #1 option (2nd in attempts per 36 next to Parker). He is ridiculously efficient as a volume 3 point shooter. No one in the NBA makes more than 3.5 3 pointers per 36 minute, and only Kyle Korver, Wesley Matthews, and Durant makes more than 2 while keeping their FG% near 50%. Korver shoots at a much lower volume, and Durant has many more dimensions to his game. (Of course the NBA 3 is much longer and there are other college players with similar profiles as Dawkins)

Hood's box score statistics looks similar to Dawkins in that both are incredibly efficient 3 point shooters. Hood doesn't make nearly as many 3s per 36, but he's better in most other aspects of the game. Comparables are Chandler Parsons, Wesley Matthews, Arron Afflalo, and JJ Reddick.

Compared to Parker, Dawkins, and Hood, Cook is a much less efficient shooter. Due to the shorter shot clock, NBA PGs tend to rack up more assists, but since we're comparing box scores just for the fun of it, Cook's comparables would be Jameer Nelson, DJ Augustin, and Trey Burke. I'm sure Cook would find his comparables exciting.

None of Sulaimon's numbers jump off the page, except that he can really get to the free throw line. I looked for NBA combo shooting guards who can shoot 3s and get to the line. His comparables were Nick Young, Kemba Walker, Jamal Crawford, Brandon Knight, and Eric Gordon.

Jefferson is a low volume shooting, elite rebounder, who provides defense and is a big free throw liability. His NBA comparables were DeAndre Jordan, Andre Drummond, Andrew Bogut, Tyson Chandler, and Miles Plumlee.

Thornton is essentially a 3 and D guy (2.4 steals per 36 minutes stands out). It was pretty difficult finding anyone who stole the ball that much and shot primarily 3s at a low volume. Mario Chalmers is his best comparable.

I know you spent a lot of time on this, but sports-reference does per 40 min and advanced stats for you... :)

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/duke/2014.html

They have stats for all the NCAA teams and numerous years. Pretty awesome site.

[Li_Duke]

On that note, sources of upside would be:
1) Improvements on defense
2) Parker learning to pass out of double/triple teams
3) Dawkins getting more minutes and maintaining his per minute performance
4) Cook getting his game back on track
5) Jefferson continuing to embrace his inner Tyson Chandler
6) Sulaimon finishing better at the rim

[Li_Duke]

I know you spent a lot of time on this, but sports-reference does per 40 min and advanced stats for you... :)

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/duke/2014.html

They have stats for all the NCAA teams and numerous years. Pretty awesome site.

Haha, thanks, but then I wouldn't have been able to spend as long procrastinating from doing real work. :)

[UrinalCake]

I think some of the NBA draft sites do NBA comparables too. Though I really liked yours.

[Troublemaker]

Two more sources of upside:

* Amile continuing to improve and utilize his faceup/postup/jedi-mind-trick-ball-fake game. Can we get him to start averaging 9-10 points/gm. I think we can.

* Jabari continuing to improve HIS faceup/postup moves so that he's automatic around the rim. It's getting there. He pulled quick moves to score on Daniel Miller last night, and Miller is strong contender for the ACC all-defensive team.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Two more sources of upside:

* Amile continuing to improve and utilize his faceup/postup/jedi-mind-trick-ball-fake game. Can we get him to start averaging 9-10 points/gm. I think we can.

* Jabari continuing to improve HIS faceup/postup moves so that he's automatic around the rim. It's getting there. He pulled quick moves to score on Daniel Miller last night, and Miller is strong contender for the ACC all-defensive team.

-Completely agree on the second point, although I think he's already top 2, maybe the best, in the ACC at faceup/postup moves. Who's better?

-I am a little hesitant about Amile. The reason that Amile is so successful with this Duke team is that he is an opportunistic scorer. He's like Thortnon, only more skilled offensively. More points means more shots, and that means more attention to Amile. I'm not sure I like that. Amile's rebounding, opportunistic scoring, decent D, and intangibles is what makes him so unique for this team. IMO, I'm not sure that Amile needs to up his scoring for this team to win it all.