Top 5 movies of Summer... the contenders

[JasonEvans]

I know it is early, but I wanted to ask the masses... which films do we need to include? Here are the reasonable contenders... by release date:

April 4 - Capt America: The Winter Soldier - All Marvel movies have $200+ mil potential. The Avengers halo has boosted Iron Man 3 and Thor 2 well above previous versions of those franchises. The last Cap film made $175+ mil. This one should easily pass the crucial $200 mil barrier to be a player in our contest, even with the pre-summer release date.

April 11 - Rio 2 - The original made just a bit less than $150 mil. Animated sequels tend to be a pretty solid bet.

April 18 - Transcendence - Johnny Depp in a sci-fi thriller is probably a good boxofice formula... even if Depp is mostly off screen the whole time as a digital AI of some sort. Worth noting that the director of this flick is Wally Pfister who has been Christopher Nolan's Director of Photography on the Dark Knight films as well as Inception.

April 18 - Heaven is for Real - go ahead... be against the power of America's Christian community to make a mainstream movie about one of their biggest beliefs into a big hit. I dare you.

May 2 - Amazing Spiderman 2 - Jamie Foxx and Paul Giamatti as bad guys. The original made $260+ mil. Sony has already announced AS 3 for 2016 and AS 4 for 2018, so they clearly are seeing something to like in these films.

May 9 - Neighbors - Can a comedy crack our top 5? Seth Rogan will try as he teams with Zach Efron.

May 16 - Godzilla - Before you laugh, it is worth noting that the director is Gareth Edwards, who made a great character-driven film called Monsters a couple years ago. And the screenplay got a hefty contribution from Frank Darabont (Shawshank, Green Mile, Walking Dead).

May 23 - X-Men: Days of Future Past - big, big, big buzz about this film. Combines the X-Men of the early 2000s with the reboot ones of two years ago. Hugh Jackman plus Michael Fassbender.

May 23 - Blended - Adam Sandler and Drew Barrymore have made boxoffice magic before in 50 First Dates ($120 mil boxoffice in 2004) and The Wedding Singer ($80 mil in 1998).

May 30 - Maleficent - Angelina Jolie as one of Disney's greatest baddies. Appears it will be Snow White and the Huntsman minus some of the depressing, adult-oriented imagery and themes. Disney is looking for a PG rating and hopes to bring in adults and kids.

May 30 - A Million Ways to Die in the West - Go ahead, bet against writer/director Seth McFarlane (Family Guy, Ted). Worth noting that Seth actually stars in this film as something more than a voice. That makes me nervous but anything with Neil Patrick Harris that doesn't also include tiny blue animated characters is a must see for me!

June 6 - Edge of Tomorrow - Tom Cruise wears what appears to be the exact same outfit Matt Damon wore in Elysium in a film that is a future-war version of Groundhog Day... minus any humor. Yup, sounds like a real winner!

June 13 - 22 Jump Street - The original made almost $140 mil without the benefit of a cushy summer release date. Channing Tatum and Jonah Hill are even bigger stars now than they were then.

June 13 - How To Train Your Dragon 2 - The trailer gives away a huge, key plot point but I doubt that will matter to ever single kid between the ages of 4 and 12 who will all want to see this film.

June 27 - Transformers: Age of Extinction - Mark Whalbeg replaces Shia LaBeouf which is a big, big, big upgrade. These films are automatic, no matter how much they suck... and they really do suck.

July 4 - Tammy - Go ahead, bet against Melissa McCarthy. Pairing her with Susan Sarandon as a drunk, potty-mouthed grandmother could be brilliant!

July 18 - Dawn of the Planet of the Apes - The last one made $176 mil with a less desirable Aug release date. There was so much good-will earned by that high-quality film, the sequel should be huge.

July 25 - Jupiter Ascending - The Wachowskis are still trying to recapture their Matrix magic. I loved Cloud Atlas but it was a boxoffice bomb. Mila Kunis and Channing Tatum will at least make this flick easy on the eyes.

Aug 1 - Guardians of the Galaxy - Remember what I said about Marvel movies? This is the most out-of-this-world Marvel film yet. It may make the Thor films feel downright normal by comparison. The cast is full of big names, though many of them do the voices of digital characters (Bradley Cooper as a raccoon-like alien, Vin Diesel as a tree-like alien) rather than actually appearing in the film. This is the movie that involves that Thanos bad-guy character that we glimpsed in the Avengers post-credit sequence.

Did I leave anything out? This is 19 films... which 5 do we cull to arrive at our 14 contenders (I have to leave space for an "other/not listed" vote).

In case you were wondering, yes, this will be the first summer without a Pixar film since 2005.

-Jason "I see at least 8 films that feel like locks to make $200+ mil... gonna be a very difficult contest to pick" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Aug 1 - Guardians of the Galaxy - Remember what I said about Marvel movies? This is the most out-of-this-world Marvel film yet. It may make the Thor films feel downright normal by comparison. The cast is full of big names, though many of them do the voices of digital characters (Bradley Cooper as a raccoon-like alien, Vin Diesel as a tree-like alien) rather than actually appearing in the film. This is the movie that involves that Thanos bad-guy character that we glimpsed in the Avengers post-credit sequence.

Benicio del Toro is playing The Collector in this film (we first caught a glimpse of him in the post-credit scene in Thor 2). Supposedly, he is playing the character as "an intergalactic version of Liberace." Well, with a description like that, how can this film be anything but a huge, huge hit?

-Jason "if there is one thing mainstream America loves, it is flamboyantly gay space-aliens!" Evans

[pfrduke]

So if we need to cut 5, I would vote against Transcendence, Heaven is for Real, Godzilla, Blended, and Edge of Tomorrow.

[Highlander]

So if we need to cut 5, I would vote against Transcendence, Heaven is for Real, Godzilla, Blended, and Edge of Tomorrow.

I would not cut Godzilla. 22 Jump Street seems like a stretch to make the top 5.

[brevity]

-Jason "if there is one thing mainstream America loves, it is flamboyantly gay space-aliens!" Evans

Could happen. George Lucas made six Star Wars films with C-3PO, a flamboyantly gay space droid.

[luburch]

I would not cut Godzilla. 22 Jump Street seems like a stretch to make the top 5.

I'm not so sure. I know among my age group most people thought 21 Jump Street was more funny than the Hangover.

[Wander]

This still feels sort of blah to me compared to 2015's epic year of restarting Star Wars/Jurassic Park/Terminator, an Avengers sequel, the Hunger Games conclusion, two more Marvel superhero movies, more installments of James Bond and Mission Impossible, another Pixar movie, and who knows what else. There have to be at least four movies in there that I'd put above anything in 2014, and that's even after I learned writing this post that Avatar and Independence Day got pushed back. Yeah, I know those aren't all summer movies.

Is that NPH's first non-voiceover film role post-HIMYM?

(Not that any of this helped)

[BD80]

... Blended - Adam Sandler and Drew Barrymore have made boxoffice magic before in 50 First Dates ($120 mil boxoffice in 2004) and The Wedding Singer ($80 mil in 1998). ...

It would be interesting to see a graph of Sandler's box office numbers since 1998. Can the numbers possibly go negative? If we have a poll for LOWEST gross intake, I want to be the first to pick Sandler.

[NashvilleDevil]

It would be interesting to see a graph of Sandler's box office numbers since 1998. Can the numbers possibly go negative? If we have a poll for LOWEST gross intake, I want to be the first to pick Sandler.

Courtesy of Box Office Mojo. (http://boxofficemojo.com/people/chart/?view=Actor&id=adamsandler.htm&sort=gross&order=DESC&p=.htm) Sandler movies almost always make money.

[BD80]

Courtesy of Box Office Mojo. (http://boxofficemojo.com/people/chart/?view=Actor&id=adamsandler.htm&sort=gross&order=DESC&p=.htm) Sandler movies almost always make money.

Who would have guessed that Big Daddy was his highest grossing film?

The absolute stinker That's My Boy outgrossed Billy Madison, and is about even with Happy Gilmore.

Still can't believe so many people went to see Grown Ups II (or Jack and Jill), I think there will be some backlash.

Sandler has never had a film that would compete for top 5.

[snowdenscold]

Who would have guessed that Big Daddy was his highest grossing film?

The absolute stinker That's My Boy outgrossed Billy Madison, and is about even with Happy Gilmore.

Still can't believe so many people went to see Grown Ups II (or Jack and Jill), I think there will be some backlash.

Sandler has never had a film that would compete for top 5.

Yeah, but I wouldn't be surprised if rentals/streaming and VHS/DVD sales for Happy Gilmore and Billy Madison absolutely crushed everything else.

[JasonEvans]

Is that NPH's first non-voiceover film role post-HIMYM?

I wish!! He inflicted this monstrosity upon us.
http://cdn.screenrant.com/wp-content/uploads/neil-patrick-harris-and-smurfs.jpg

-Jason "also worth noting that HIMYM is not done yet so we have not entered the post-HIMYM phase of his career" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Who would have guessed that Big Daddy was his highest grossing film?

The absolute stinker That's My Boy outgrossed Billy Madison, and is about even with Happy Gilmore.

Still can't believe so many people went to see Grown Ups II (or Jack and Jill), I think there will be some backlash.

Sandler has never had a film that would compete for top 5.

You need to adjust for inflation. Some of those better films from his catalog are a decade or two old and look much better from a boxoffice perspective when you factor in ticket inflation.

-Jason "I do agree though that Sandler films have degraded to the point where he cannot compete for Top 5... his film will be removed" Evans

[JasonEvans]

So if we need to cut 5, I would vote against Transcendence, Heaven is for Real, Godzilla, Blended, and Edge of Tomorrow.

You have lost your mind if you think Godzilla is not a contender, perhaps a very strong one. The reviews and buzz would have to be terrible for it to make less than $125 mil or so.

Zero percent chance Transcendence or Edge of Tomorrow get eliminated from our list too. Both are pretty much locks to make $100+ mil.

-Jason "it looks like a weak summer for comedies, unless Neighbors or Million Ways to Die is really funny" Evans

[-jk]

You need to adjust for inflation. Some of those better films from his catalog are a decade or two old and look much better from a boxoffice perspective when you factor in ticket inflation.

-Jason "I do agree though that Sandler films have degraded to the point where he cannot compete for Top 5... his film will be removed" Evans

Shouldn't all movies be reported in "GwtW" dollars? Or would it make for some really ugly results (http://boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adjusted.htm) for modern movies?

-jk

[Highlander]

I'm not so sure. I know among my age group most people thought 21 Jump Street was more funny than the Hangover.

That probably doesn't matter. Jonah Hill and Channing Tatum have never starred in a movie that made $200M at the box office before. In fact, the only movie Jonah Hill has ever made that grossed over $200M was a children's movie where he provided a voice-over (How to Train your Dragon). Most of his big films end up in the $100-150M range. So the draw for his lovable loser style comedies is pretty well established IMO.

Comparing 21 Jump Street to Hangover in terms of $ tells the story. Case in point:


21 Jump Street made - $138,447,667
Hangover I and II made over $250,000,000 each.
Hangover 3 is the closest to 21 Jump Street at $112


In other words, Hangover is in a diff zip code performance wise. Even with the strength of the first Hangover, the second one only did 10% more business. If we're trimming the list down, I think it's reasonable to drop this Jump Street. It could easily do $150-175M, but I don't see much more than that, and that won't be enough to crack the top 5.

If you believe strongly in it, you can always write it in. I just don't see many people putting it in their top 5.

I am hearing a lot of buzz about Godzilla. Not sure why; it doesn't really appeal to me in the least and the previous remake was bad. But I bet against Man of Steel on that premise and lost before.

[snowdenscold]

Shouldn't all movies be reported in "GwtW" dollars? Or would it make for some really ugly results (http://boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adjusted.htm) for modern movies?

-jk

Yeah, only Avatar is in the Top 25 (#14). Avengers pops up at 27.

I like the # of tickets sold as a way to take inflation calculations out of the picture, but unfortunately in the link here they just back into the numbers via inflation, since I assume they don't have the hard data:
http://boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adjusted.htm?adjust_yr=1&p=.htm


What would be even more interesting is seeing inflation-adjusted dollars normalized for population. I mean, not only are ticket prices much higher these days, but the pool of people to see a movie is much larger as well. Now, I realize as time has gone along more alternatives and options have popped up for people, but it would at least give you a sense of a movie's impact on the country.

I would use GWTW as my primary example, but w/ numerous rereleases it's hard to get a weighted average population. Star Wars also had a re-release.
So let's take Sound of Music:
142 million tickets w/ a population of 194 million in 1965
Avatar:
97 million tickets w/ a population of 305 million in 2009

So not only did it sell 1.46 as many tickets, but normalized for population it was 2.3 times more successful. Though Avatar probably had to work harder to capture people's willingness to go see it.

[throatybeard]

For people like Jason Evans who evaluate cinema solely in terms of how much money a movie makes, I offer this article from a magazine that only understands the entire breadth of human experience in terms of economics.

http://www.economist.com/news/business/21595007-hollywood-has-new-star-studio-different-approach-film-business-fighting

The Economist explains how Lionsgate has broken into the financial elite of the movie business despite being founded just 17 years ago. I guess The Hunger Games is sort of the Tom Brady of the movie business. Impressive, in its way.

[JasonEvans]

For people like Jason Evans who evaluate cinema solely in terms of how much money a movie makes...

Dude, stop being a... well... you know.

No one here acts like boxoffice is the "sole way to evaluate cinema." Heck, I think it would be kinda interesting to have a Rotten Tomatoes or Metacritic or perhaps Flixster rating contest to guess which films will be the top critical darlings of a season (perhaps limit it to films that get released in at least 500 theaters so it involves movies everyone has heard of and get a chance to see). But you insist again and again to put words in our mouths and pretend like money is all we care about in the film industry. It is untrue and not fair. And, I might add, I don't think anyone appreciates you doing it.

Many of us come here to post reviews and comments about films where we know there will not be a big boxoffice story. We have discussions about awards races and what critics are saying about certain pictures. Your insistence on jumping into the boxoffice tracking threads to spit in our faces all the time is tiresome and not in the DBR's spirit. I am tired of it. That you continually target me with your unfair barbs is especially galling seeing as I am the one on here who gets paid (every now and then) to actually talk about films in a critical and artistic fashion and I probably see more movies than just about anyone else around these parts (I generally see around 100 movies in theaters a year).

Bottom line -- I am sorry we all cannot be the cultural paragon of virtue that Throatybeard is. If only we had a cross we could hang you upon to make your martyrdom complete.

As I look back, my post may seem more than a little bit harsh in light of your contribution to this thread. I think I bring too much baggage with me to this conversation because I have had to read your continuous bashing of anything boxoffice for soooo long, despite repeated level-headed attempts to educate you about the errors of your assumptions. So, as I write this, a piece of me thinks I should just delete it... I dunno. Maybe being cooped up at home with nothing to do is really bad for my temperament.

-Jason "someone tell me if I went over the line... or maybe tell me how much I went over the line... sorry" Evans

[blazindw]

For people like Jason Evans who evaluate cinema solely in terms of how much money a movie makes, I offer this article from a magazine that only understands the entire breadth of human experience in terms of economics.

http://www.economist.com/news/business/21595007-hollywood-has-new-star-studio-different-approach-film-business-fighting

The Economist explains how Lionsgate has broken into the financial elite of the movie business despite being founded just 17 years ago. I guess The Hunger Games is sort of the Tom Brady of the movie business. Impressive, in its way.

I don't think anyone here evaluates movies strictly in terms of dollars, but it is interesting to use it to gauge popularity. It also turns one-off movies into trilogies (The Hangover) and makes some movies that were slated for big things to crash out of people's memories (Eric Bana's Incredible Hulk). Popularity doesn't always translate to best, which is why blockbuster hits most times don't find themselves in the Best Picture category at the Oscars.

[brevity]

-Jason "someone tell me if I went over the line... or maybe tell me how much I went over the line... sorry" Evans

Jason, you do have an obsession with numbers.

Sometimes it's helpful. On the main forum you will often calculate, or at least estimate, an NBA player's career earnings. This can be incredibly illustrative when you're discussing a young player or journeyman. It gives me a better idea of the kind of return on (university) investment he's getting, for example. The best thing is that no one else, except for maybe Dan Patrick, ever talks about this.

The box office stuff is... less helpful. It's a similar way to keep score, but everyone already talks about it, so there's very little to add. After a while it becomes a necessarily lazy way to talk about movies. People become quickly dismissive of a film if it has limited moneymaking potential. Still, box office talk is easy and popular, so there will always be a place for it in DBR.

Throatybeard is being a culture snob, which is fine, but is also continually peeing in the box office cornflakes, which is not. To draw an analogy, I can think of few things that are less interesting to me than planning out game minutes for the Duke roster. It strikes me as unbelievably hypocritical to say "In Coach K we trust" and then play the micromanagement game. Incessantly. Repetitively. On every thread.

The difference is that I don't chime in on those threads and tell everyone that they're wrong, or living a lesser existence, or whatever. That's just their thing, not mine. I just move on to the next thread.

Far be it from me to discourage a mod battle -- look, our parents are fighting! -- but throatybeard has to realize that the DBR majority shares an interest he finds tedious. What's more, he can start any number of indie movie and high culture threads he wants, but they'll always be less active than the box office ones. Such is life. Know your crowd.

I am in complete agreement with Jason on one thing: this winter weather cabin fever makes me wordy.

[DUKIECB]

-Jason "someone tell me if I went over the line... or maybe tell me how much I went over the line... sorry" Evans

I thought it was AWESOME.

[JasonEvans]

I challenge you to watch this (profanity laced) red-band trailer for A Million Ways To Die In The West and not think it is a real contender for the Top 5.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=QgQzWrrpRb4

-Jason "Seth McFarlane is a raunchy genius!" Evans

[BD80]

I challenge you to watch this (profanity laced) red-band trailer for A Million Ways To Die In The West and not think it is a real contender for the Top 5. ... -Jason "Seth McFarlane is a raunchy genius!" Evans

Challenge accepted. A-list cast, great premise, but while Seth may be a genius in writing and with voices, he is no actor. Arnold Schwarzenegger would be funnier.

Ted was a better actor in Seth's last movie, although I admit that I didn't find that movie uproariously funny.

[davekay1971]

I challenge you to watch this (profanity laced) red-band trailer for A Million Ways To Die In The West and not think it is a real contender for the Top 5.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=QgQzWrrpRb4

-Jason "Seth McFarlane is a raunchy genius!" Evans

Not sure about the movie, but, in the spirit of Ted, that trailer makes think dirty thoughts about Charlize Theron...i mean, more than I already did anyway.

[YmoBeThere]

this winter weather cabin fever makes me wordy.

Perhaps you should put a disclaimer on your screenname, I.e. brevity when the weather is nice?

[Udaman]

JE - a few things:

1) Don't let throaty bait you in. He's the Lucy with the football to your Charlie Brown. Just let it go.

2) I hadn't even heard of A Million Ways to Die in the West, and I HATE watching previews (like to be spoiler free), but I couldn't help myself and that was damn, damn funny. It's a contender for sure.

3) The solution is simple (and a no brainer).....don't put in the April movies. Sorry, but summer blockbusters are May through August. Personally, I don't think any of the April movies will crack the top 5 anyway, but even if they did, it's not fair. What makes the summer so tough to pick is that each weekend more good movies open. If you put in Captain America, there's no real action competition until May 2nd. Rio 2 has no kid competition until June 13th. I'll say it again, an April movie shouldn't count for the summer. All the kids are still in school, there's no real weekly on-going competition, and it makes the ratings unfair. I mean really, if we include April than this thing lasts for 5 months - that's too long. It's May through August. Done.

If you do that, then your list is 15, and you just need to take off one. I would suggest dropping Neighbors.

[blazindw]

JE - a few things:

1) Don't let throaty bait you in. He's the Lucy with the football to your Charlie Brown. Just let it go.

2) I hadn't even heard of A Million Ways to Die in the West, and I HATE watching previews (like to be spoiler free), but I couldn't help myself and that was damn, damn funny. It's a contender for sure.

3) The solution is simple (and a no brainer).....don't put in the April movies. Sorry, but summer blockbusters are May through August. Personally, I don't think any of the April movies will crack the top 5 anyway, but even if they did, it's not fair. What makes the summer so tough to pick is that each weekend more good movies open. If you put in Captain America, there's no real action competition until May 2nd. Rio 2 has no kid competition until June 13th. I'll say it again, an April movie shouldn't count for the summer. All the kids are still in school, there's no real weekly on-going competition, and it makes the ratings unfair. I mean really, if we include April than this thing lasts for 5 months - that's too long. It's May through August. Done.

If you do that, then your list is 15, and you just need to take off one. I would suggest dropping Neighbors.

I would agree that May-August should be the season. It used to be that you wouldn't count any movie towards the summer box office until Memorial Day, but the first weekend in May in recent years has become the de facto summer blockbuster season kickoff. Sounds like if you limit it to May-August, we pretty much have our poll.

[JasonEvans]

I would agree that May-August should be the season. It used to be that you wouldn't count any movie towards the summer box office until Memorial Day, but the first weekend in May in recent years has become the de facto summer blockbuster season kickoff. Sounds like if you limit it to May-August, we pretty much have our poll.

In theory, I agree, but I like making it at least a little bit tough to make the picks. I think adding April and including Cap 2 makes it tougher. I think there is an excellent chance Cap would be in the Top 5. Adding one more very strong contender is what makes this fun!

Look, in reality there are probably only 8 or so movies that really should be considered here. The rest is just a sucker's bet. Adding in Cap adds one more to the real contenders. I'd prefer we do it that way... but I understand the desire to keep it more confined to traditional summer.

Anyone agree with me and want to chime in? If not, I am going to side with Blazin and Udaman.

-Jason "as we get a bit closer to summer, I'll see if some flicks start to generate buzz and perhaps knock one of the current 14 off their perch as Bridesmaids and Ted did in recent years" Evans

[davekay1971]

I'd keep in Cap 2. While I agree that doing so makes this poll creep right along with the creeping extension of the summer blockbuster season, what the summer movie poll is trying to figure out is which will be the 5 biggest blockbusters (US box office only) of the blockbuster season.

(For Throaty's piece of mind, yes, that makes this poll as airy, light, and disposable as movie theater popcorn...or a popcorn summer movie).

Cap 2 may be pushing the blockbuster season time to new limits, but there is no question that Cap 2 is a summer blockbuster movie, in design, intent, and, I am certain, execution. Since it is, and it has a legitimate chance to be a top 5 grosser for the blockbuster season, I'd say let Cap play.

[blazindw]

In theory, I agree, but I like making it at least a little bit tough to make the picks. I think adding April and including Cap 2 makes it tougher. I think there is an excellent chance Cap would be in the Top 5. Adding one more very strong contender is what makes this fun!

Look, in reality there are probably only 8 or so movies that really should be considered here. The rest is just a sucker's bet. Adding in Cap adds one more to the real contenders. I'd prefer we do it that way... but I understand the desire to keep it more confined to traditional summer.

Anyone agree with me and want to chime in? If not, I am going to side with Blazin and Udaman.

-Jason "as we get a bit closer to summer, I'll see if some flicks start to generate buzz and perhaps knock one of the current 14 off their perch as Bridesmaids and Ted did in recent years" Evans

I don't mind if the masses decide to add Cap 2 to the mix since I agree it would be a heavy contender. And I'm fine if you extend it to April as well...I was just offering my $0.02. It's not like I won't participate if you include April movies! :)

[awhom111]

Definitely not a summer movie, but the movie that will be most interesting to watch box office receipts for this whole year is Veronica Mars.

Now that I have a ticket, I can say that I will be breaking my at least five years of not watching a movie in a theater. I can't even remember the last one I watched. If the movie had not happened, I would have had to wait until Star Wars or something.

[snowdenscold]

Definitely not a summer movie, but the movie that will be most interesting to watch box office receipts for this whole year is Veronica Mars.

Now that I have a ticket, I can say that I will be breaking my at least five years of not watching a movie in a theater. I can't even remember the last one I watched. If the movie had not happened, I would have had to wait until Star Wars or something.

I'll be wearing my VM T-shirt from my Kickstarter campaign contribution to the theater :D

[JasonEvans]

I know VM fans are excited about this, but I will be more than a little surprised if the Veronica Mars movie makes more than $25 or $30 mil at the boxoffice. I am not talking about the opening weekend, I am talking about total boxoffice.

We are talking about a show that pretty consistently did about 2-2.5 million viewers per episode. It will have to bring in all of those folks (it won't, it has been off the air for 7 years) plus a fair number of people who never watched the show to do more than mid-20 million in boxoffice. I don't see it happening.

-Jason "I am sure Mars-o-philes are jazzed for this, but there is little indication there is wider excitement for it" Evans

[brevity]

I know VM fans are excited about this, but I will be more than a little surprised if the Veronica Mars movie makes more than $25 or $30 mil at the boxoffice. I am not talking about the opening weekend, I am talking about total boxoffice.

We are talking about a show that pretty consistently did about 2-2.5 million viewers per episode. It will have to bring in all of those folks (it won't, it has been off the air for 7 years) plus a fair number of people who never watched the show to do more than mid-20 million in boxoffice. I don't see it happening.

-Jason "I am sure Mars-o-philes are jazzed for this, but there is little indication there is wider excitement for it" Evans

The obvious comparison is Serenity, released wide in September 2005 with a $39M production budget. It opened with $10M and made a total of $25M (adjusted to $33M in 2014 dollars). The film had its existing cast, last seen on FOX in 2003, and added recognizable faces but no stars: Chiwetel Ejiofor, David Krumholtz, Tamara Taylor, Sarah Paulson. However, it was marketed as a stylish sci-fi film, and not a space western, which drew in newcomers with no coat color preference. It ran just under 2 hours.

Veronica Mars will have a limited release in March 2014 with a $6M production budget. The show aired for more than one season, but on a smaller network, UPN. Kristen Bell is more famous right now than the Nathan Fillion of 2005, and the added cast members have more star power (James Franco, Jamie Lee Curtis, and Justin Long, if IMDb (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2771372/) is accurate), but the genre is a harder sell. Also, its running time is 2 hours, 18 minutes. Frankly, if Veronica Mars can top $33M, its fans should be ecstatic. But I would place the over/under at $12M -- maybe $20M if it quickly expands to a wide release.

[JasonEvans]

The obvious comparison is Serenity, released wide in September 2005 with a $39M production budget. It opened with $10M and made a total of $25M (adjusted to $33M in 2014 dollars). The film had its existing cast, last seen on FOX in 2003, and added recognizable faces but no stars: Chiwetel Ejiofor, David Krumholtz, Tamara Taylor, Sarah Paulson. However, it was marketed as a stylish sci-fi film, and not a space western, which drew in newcomers with no coat color preference. It ran just under 2 hours.

Veronica Mars will have a limited release in March 2014 with a $6M production budget. The show aired for more than one season, but on a smaller network, UPN. Kristen Bell is more famous right now than the Nathan Fillion of 2005, and the added cast members have more star power (James Franco, Jamie Lee Curtis, and Justin Long, if IMDb (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2771372/) is accurate), but the genre is a harder sell. Also, its running time is 2 hours, 18 minutes. Frankly, if Veronica Mars can top $33M, its fans should be ecstatic. But I would place the over/under at $12M -- maybe $20M if it quickly expands to a wide release.

Serenity was easily accessible to folks who had never seen Firefly and got very good reviews (82% on Rotten Tomatoes). There are signs that the VM movie will also get good reviews (after looking at a rough-cut, Warner agreed to pick it up and give it wider release than initially planned) but I think it will have a really tough time tapping into the markets that make films into big hits. It is going to make money ($5.7 mil budget, all of it raised from Kickstarter) but does have limited upside.

-Jason "I saw a clip the other day and it really felt like it contained some 'insider' jokes that I did not get because I did not watch the show" Evans

[awhom111]

I know VM fans are excited about this, but I will be more than a little surprised if the Veronica Mars movie makes more than $25 or $30 mil at the boxoffice. I am not talking about the opening weekend, I am talking about total boxoffice.

We are talking about a show that pretty consistently did about 2-2.5 million viewers per episode. It will have to bring in all of those folks (it won't, it has been off the air for 7 years) plus a fair number of people who never watched the show to do more than mid-20 million in boxoffice. I don't see it happening.

-Jason "I am sure Mars-o-philes are jazzed for this, but there is little indication there is wider excitement for it" Evans

The key question is how much money it will have to bring in before fans of every show that has ever been cancelled point to it and demand a movie for their show.

[davekay1971]

The key question is how much money it will have to bring in before fans of every show that has ever been cancelled point to it and demand a movie for their show.

If the Star Trek (cancelled after 3 seasons) movie franchise (8 movies starring/based on original cast, even if you ignore the Next Generation spinoff movies) didn't do that, I don't think Veronica Mars will!

[bjornolf]

I challenge you to watch this (profanity laced) red-band trailer for A Million Ways To Die In The West and not think it is a real contender for the Top 5.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=QgQzWrrpRb4

-Jason "Seth McFarlane is a raunchy genius!" Evans

Every time I hear his voice, all I see is the bear.

[chaosmage]

The key question is how much money it will have to bring in before fans of every show that has ever been cancelled point to it and demand a movie for their show.

I'm ok with being one of those fans and calling for a movie or something of "Jericho" - since I've been sick for a few days, I sat down and watched it on Netflix. Rather well done show, and am not sure why it didn't get more press, but I'm a big fan of post-apocalyptic/dystopian shows, so that's just me.

[El_Diablo]

In theory, I agree, but I like making it at least a little bit tough to make the picks. I think adding April and including Cap 2 makes it tougher. I think there is an excellent chance Cap would be in the Top 5. Adding one more very strong contender is what makes this fun!

Look, in reality there are probably only 8 or so movies that really should be considered here. The rest is just a sucker's bet. Adding in Cap adds one more to the real contenders. I'd prefer we do it that way... but I understand the desire to keep it more confined to traditional summer.

Anyone agree with me and want to chime in? If not, I am going to side with Blazin and Udaman.

-Jason "as we get a bit closer to summer, I'll see if some flicks start to generate buzz and perhaps knock one of the current 14 off their perch as Bridesmaids and Ted did in recent years" Evans

If Captain America were more of a borderline contender, it would be good to include if you are looking to make the contest harder. But I think including it might actually make the contest easier. I won't say their names at this stage, but I think there are two obvious stone-cold locks already. And maybe this is just me, but I think Captain America would also be a lock if included, or close enough to it such that everyone would pick it (except Udaman apparently), which would basically turn this into a "Pick 2" contest among the rest of the movies. And there are two that stick out to me as pretty clear selections to round out the top five. Leaving Captain America out at least keeps it a "Pick 3" contest, which would allow for some greater variation in the picks.

[JasonEvans]

If Captain America were more of a borderline contender, it would be good to include if you are looking to make the contest harder. But I think including it might actually make the contest easier. I won't say their names at this stage, but I think there are two obvious stone-cold locks already. And maybe this is just me, but I think Captain America would also be a lock if included, or close enough to it such that everyone would pick it (except Udaman apparently), which would basically turn this into a "Pick 2" contest among the rest of the movies. And there are two that stick out to me as pretty clear selections to round out the top five. Leaving Captain America out at least keeps it a "Pick 3" contest, which would allow for some greater variation in the picks.

I would argue just the opposite, that Cap makes it that much harder to pick a top 5. I see 7 films that I am fairly sure are going to be in the $200 mil range this summer and Cap would be #8. I don't for a moment see Cap as any more of a lock than most of the others. Anyone who tells you they know for sure that Cap will be bigger or smaller than (for example) Days of Future Past, Godzilla, Apes 2, or a couple others is just plain lying to you.

-Jason "I really think Cap makes the top 5 harder... I am going to leave it in" Evans

[El_Diablo]

-Jason "I really think Cap makes the top 5 harder... I am going to leave it in" Evans

Fair enough. It might be hurt by the timing, so perhaps not a lock.