Phase IV 2013-14 (Through 1st UNC Game)

[tommy]

The Blue Devils bent but did not break in Phase III, which covered the first third, or six games, of the ACC schedule. Overall we were 4-2, but it was a pretty wild ride getting there. We saw what we all sure hope was the depths, that being the second half meltdown at Clemson (on the heels of the blown lead at Notre Dame) and then we saw a terrific turnaround where Duke beat a solid Virginia squad at home (though not without some very tense moments late), they blew out NC State, and then got their first conference road win, over the defensive-minded Miami Hurricanes, and did it in very convincing fashion. The period saw Coach K, his family, and his program have to cope with the death of his brother Bill, an event which reminded us all that Coach K is human, as by his own admission he was "knocked back," and it affected his preparation of the team, his coaching and the performance of the team. Perhaps the most memorable event of the phase came with Coach K, clearly dissatisfied with the energy, effort, and chemistry of the team, thinking outside the box (again) and expanding the rotation by going early and often to a five-at-a-time substitution pattern in which he seemed to establish two teams-within-the-team of five players, each with its own identity and style, and he used them as units for significant chunks of the last three games of the phase -- all victories.

Phase IV consists of the middle six ACC games, and it will be a bear. The Devils start off at home on Saturday with a tough FSU squad, a team tied with Duke in the ACC standings at 4-2. The Noles own victories over Shaka Smart's VCU Rams and nationally ranked UMass, as well as a couple of teams who have beaten Duke -- Notre Dame and Clemson. They also lost heartbreakers to Florida and Michigan, both of whom have proven to be strong outfits. Then comes the dreaded two game roadie to ACC newcomers Pitt and Syracuse. Pitt doesn't have a great resume, as their blowout over Clemson the other night was their best win of the year, but they are 5-1 in the league and are ranked #2 overall by KenPom and boast the 6th most efficient offense in the nation. Undefeated Syracuse is next, and they of course feature the most difficult zone defense to solve in the nation, and this year they also sport KenPom's 10th most efficient offense. Assuming we're still standing, Duke then will return to Cameron for what should be a breather against Wake Forest, before hitting the road again against Boston College and then finishing up with a bus ride down 15-501 to face Ol' Roy and his mighty band of Swahili speakers.

In no particular order, other than #1, here are ten things I'll be looking for in Phase IV:

1. Health. This must always come first. I'm a little afraid to discuss it for fear of jinxing us, but we've been fortunate so far this season. No major injuries. A couple of the usual twisted ankles here and there, but nothing serious. This has to continue. Despite Coach K having expanded the rotation in the last three games, we still have a number of guys who are next-to-irreplaceable. And we're now at the stage of the season where it would be difficult to work around the loss of a major player. Sure, K has done it extremely late in seasons in the past, but it ain't easy, and none of us would want to see him have to try to do it again. I recommend prophylactic walking boots for both feet of all players on the roster, to be worn at all times other than practice and games.

I should mention in this subject the issue of Jabari Parker "hitting the wall." I do not believe that occurred in Phase III, as many speculated was happening, as a reason for his decreased production. We were simply not deep enough into the season for that to have been a factor yet. Now, in Phase IV, that could become more of an issue for him or others, but one of the additional benefits of the two-platoon system is Jabari playing less minutes, which presumably will help him avoid "the wall."

2. Consistency and Balance. Our offense has been far ahead of our defense for most of this season, whether it be judged by traditional numbers, advanced metrics, or the eyeball test. That seems to be evening out lately, as we came with strong offensive and defensive efforts against NC State and Miami, and for most of the game against UVA as well. That is going to have to continue. It is very difficult to beat quality teams when you are much stronger at one end of the floor than the other. Eventually, your opponent usually is able to exploit your weakness, and beat you. If we do not bring it at both ends against outstanding teams like Pitt and Syracuse, as well as lesser but still dangerous ones like FSU and UNC, we will lose.

When a team is inconsistent, the coach is left unsure about how to "fix" it. We played quite well early (for most of the game) against Kansas, then were bad against ECU and terrible defensively against Vermont before playing pretty well (for most of the game) against Arizona and very well against Michigan and UCLA. Then we lost focus and the game to Notre Dame and got hammered in the second half against Clemson, only to turn it around and handle Virginia (for most of the game) and then put the wood to State and Miami. Serious see-saw action. It left Coach K doing a lot of tinkering, a lot of hole-plugging, and it started to seem like a game of whack-a-mole. Hopefully that is over, and the team can give a more consistent effort at both ends, as they've begun to do over the last several games. Doesn't mean we win every game, but it's a lot easier to see what you have to work on when the performance is more consistent.

3. Jabari Parker. Over the first 12 games of the season, Jabari averaged 22.2 ppg on 53.8% shooting, including 46.5% on 3 pointers. In the last seven games, he has scored 13.4 ppg on 36.4% shooting, including 26.9% on three's. In the last seven, he hasn't once shot over 50%. Look, we all know we have a lot of good players on this team, a lot of weapons, great coaching, etc. But let's be honest: this team isn't "reaching its potential" -- meaning "going to the Final Four" -- unless Jabari Parker plays like a star.

Though the last couple of games have been better, Jabari simply has to relax. After the hot start, and perhaps the major media attention was a factor, he seemed to want to play too fast on offense. His shots seemed rushed; they were often too quick in the offense. It often seemed like he had decided in advance that the shot was going up, and regardless of what the defense did, the shot went up. I don't like sports cliches at all, but he really does need to let the game come to him rather than force it. Yes, being aggressive is good, and I like seeing him take it to the rack, because he's going to get fouled a lot, but he can't be so quick to jack up contested jump shots, not when we have so many other talented players on the floor. I would like to see him drive it to the hoop more; his body is huge, his handle is good, and he can take it all the way. If he gets stopped, guys are going to be open for kickouts or dumpoffs. Find them. It'll result in a lot of easy hoops. And when you do that, and make the defense play you for the drive too, then the stop and pop, the pull-up, and the step back will be much more available. Relax, young fella. Trust your teammates. Take a sad song and make it better.

4. If Jabari has still got to be our Batman, I don't think there's been a better Robin in the land than Rodney Hood, especially in the last stretch of games. Frankly, I think he's been our best offensive player in the ACC season, averaging just shy of 19 points on 51% shooting, including 50% from three point land. Wow. My only concern with Rodney is his becoming too enamored of the outside jumpshot, and forgetting how effective he can be from midrange, or taking it all the way to the hoop. With his long arms and left hand dominance, he rarely gets his shot blocked, and he is crafty enough to make just about any shot seem like a good one. But he has only taken two free throws in the last three games combined. He's got to be more aggressive than that.

5. Defense. I have been encouraged by what I've seen the last few games. Our guys, Quinn in particular, have done a much better job at moving their feet and preventing dribble penetration. When we play poorly defensively, the root cause of it is almost always the failure of our perimeter guys to move their feet and keep their men out of the lane. But it's not just that. We are communicating much better. You can tell by how much more effectively we're helping and switching and rotating, and our hedging action up top with our bigs is working too, as we're getting enough of a push to enable the screened man to return to his assignment, and then the big is hustling back to his man in time too. We are finally combining communication with the physical necessities of defense to cut off penetration, prevent the screen/roll from killing us, and avoid giving up so many easy hoops where our guys are left looking at each other with their palms up, as if saying, "where were you?" And I don't think we've given anything up on an inbounds play since the Notre Dame debacle.

Will it continue? I don't know. But I tend to think we're unlikely to backslide in a huge way going forward. We may struggle in a given game here or there, but I think we've improved both individually (especially Rasheed and Andre on the outside and Amile on the inside) and as a team, and that bodes well.

6. Of course, the boards. Here, Amile Jefferson has emerged as one of the outstanding rebounders in the ACC. Remember, this is a kid who did not start a number of games earlier in the year. Now, can you imagine him not being a key player on this team? His rebounding prowess -- including in the last few games his rebounding at the offensive end -- has been a major factor in this team turning it around, but he's going to have to keep it going. His success on the boards goes to show that there are many different ways to be a good rebounder. You don't have to be the tallest guy, the guy with the biggest butt, or the strongest guy. A lot of it is about desire, instinct, and smarts, and Amile has shown he has all of those, in spades. He's averaging over 9 rebounds a game in ACC play, and rarely if ever has he been the biggest guy on the floor.

My concern about Amile and the boards, though, is that he may wear down. Though he is getting decent help -- see Jabari against Miami and in many other games, and often by committee -- Amile is the guy doing the heavy lifting, the guy whose #1 focus is to hit the boards. He's a slender guy. Opponents are leaning on him, pushing him, shoving him all night. That takes a lot out of guys. I'll be watching closely Amile's minutes, and how productive he is as we get deeper into the conference season, as the cumulative effect of all the pounding may start to show itself.

Big picture on the boards, though, is that we've been much better than many expected us to be pre-season. With a few exceptions, we've held our own on the defensive boards against bigger teams, and while we haven't been great on the offensive glass (until recently, that is) the more important thing in my mind is to not give up demoralizing, easy second shot opportunities to the opponent, and we have been pretty good in that department. But we have to continue it.

7. The rotation. Will K continue with the platoon system? His history is to shorten the bench as the season wears on, to eight at the most but usually more like seven. But the platoon system is working. I think it is working for a number of reasons. One is because it provides both units with an identity, and each player a clear role. There is a real camaraderie on each squad. There is much more energy coming from Duke, not only because of the esprit de corps that the guys on each platoon feel, but also because they're better rested. But the platoon system is not being utilized for the entire game, or close to it. Gradually, K integrates the top guys from the "Blue" team -- Rasheed and Andre primarily, plus some of Tyler -- in with the guys who started, and Matt plays less. In particular, I think the system has been a godsend for Rasheed Sulaimon. He, along with Andre, is clearly the guy expected to carry the scoring load. He is not expected to defer, as he does when on the floor with Jabari and Rodney. He can hunt his shot aggressively, whether it be the outside J, pulling up for a midrange shot, or taking it all the way. He is playing loose and playing confidently, because he is the leader out there with that squad. It's a perfect example of Coach K tailoring his strategy to not only the physical, but the emotional makeup of his players.

Who knows if Coach will keep using this system? None of us saw it coming in the first place, so how would we know how long he'll continue to deploy it? But the team's fortunes appeared to turn for the better, and do so in a big way, when he went to it. I don't see any reason to discard it at this point. If it ain't broke . . .

8. Marshall Plumlee. Never have I seen so many words written, and so many hands wrung, about a guy who plays 6.8 minutes per game and averages less than a point a game, than I've seen on these boards in the last month or so, about Plumlee the Youngest. But I have to say, I think Marshall is showing some improvement. Those who describe him as a "force" or a "rim protector" I think are overstating the case. But he is a factor at the defensive end. He has blocked some shots, he is active in there, he brings energy to the team (and the crowd) and there is merit to the idea that a body as big as his tends to deter opponents from taking the ball to the hoop. Those who have taken it to him have had pretty good success, but Marshall has had his moments too. I don't think there's anything wrong with his inclusion on the Blue team, and if we were to go away from that concept, I would still like to see Marshall get a little run each game, depending on score and situation. He is contributing. I hope to see him increase his minutes, for no other reason than if he does so, it means he's continuing to improve. K gives him a little more rope than he did at the outset of the season. Hopefully as we continue to play difficult opponents with quality bigs, Plumlee will move further into K's Circle of Trust. Oh, and hit a dern free throw as well.

9. Playing from ahead/closing out games. This was a concern in Phase III. We lost second half leads to Notre Dame and completely melted down in the second half against Clemson. We blew a double digit lead late at home against UVA, but at least recovered to win that one thanks to a very friendly bounce on Rasheed's 3-pointer. But I was very encouraged in the last couple of games. We got up on State, and while they were prone, we just jammed our boot onto their throat. No letup. No chance of a comeback. Pretty much the same thing against Miami. While we built the lead in a more methodical manner, and we did have a mini-lapse in the second half, we were never threatened. This is all about mindset. Once we get a lead, we cannot go into cruise control. We cannot lose our aggressiveness. We must remember how we got the lead in the first place, and continue to go there until the game is in hand. The coaches can harp on it all they want; the players have to buy into it mentally.

10. Playing against the zone. This is a big one in this phase. We've seen a lot more zone this year than I can ever remember. I think a lot of it has to do with the new rules/new enforcement of rules. But regardless, we have had to learn how to play offense in this new world order. Our first few attempts did not go particularly well. Then we figured out that it really helps to get the ball into the middle, and have that man who receives the pass at the free throw line (or below) to quickly reverse the ball, and the zone begins to distort. Then we have an advantage. We did that well for a couple of games, but I didn't love the zone offense as much against Miami. Our passing was crisp and we didn't take many bad shots, but we didn't attack the zone in the same way. There was still a lot of passing around the perimeter until a guy either took the J or penetrated himself. We need to get back to setting screens -- and that's a very different thing than setting them against man -- and centering the ball and reversing it. Offensive rebounding won't always be able to save our bacon like it did for much of the Miami game. I will definitely be watching for us to get back to attacking the zone in the same way we had in the previous few contests in which opponents challenged us with it.

I do have to say, as much as Amile brings to the table on the boards and defensively, and picking up "garbage" hoops, this team would be helped immensely if he could receive the pass at the FT line against a zone, turn, and stick a 13 foot jump shot. I don't think I've seen him do that once. If our zone offense gets bogged down, in particular against Syracuse, I would like to see us try Jabari or even Rodney more in that role. Get him the ball in the middle. If they collapse, fine. Reverse it. But if they're slow to collapse, turn and shoot it or take it strong right up the gut.

OK that's it. Crucial stretch of the season coming up here. I believe our success in the areas I've outlined will go a long way towards determining how we do in these games, and going forward. It is critically important that the team not backslide from the improvements it has made on both ends of the floor. Momentum, and the confidence that it inspires, can be a very big thing in sports. Let's hope we can keep the positive momentum post-Clemson going, and we can get to the top of the stretch with a full head of steam.

[Kedsy]

Great post, Tommy. Really well done. As you point out, this Phase will be critical to Duke's season.

I think you're right about Jabari. Here's an interesting tidbit: other than Matt and Marshall, Jabari is our least efficient offensive player, with an oRtg of 112.4. Not that 112 is a bad oRtg -- it would be third best on UNC's team, for example -- but in Duke's high octane offense, Jabari is not nearly as efficient as most of his teammates. Now, part of that is Jabari's usage rate is outrageously high (32%, 2nd highest in the ACC, behind only TJ Warren), but a lot of it is (as you say) that he's taking a lot of contested two-point jumpers and is not hitting a very high percentage of them. Hopefully he gets back on track in this phase.

Another thing I'll be looking at is Andre's minutes. He is our most efficient offensive player (his oRtg is 6th in the ACC right now; and he has the 2nd highest usage rate on the team, so the oRtg appears to be legitimate), and yet since the "two line system" went into effect, he's been playing fewer than 12 minutes a game. Personally, I'd like to see that go up, especially against FSU, a team to which Andre has given nightmares in the past.

You bring up an interesting point about Amile possibly wearing down as the season progresses. Right now he ranks 3rd in the ACC in both offensive rebounding percentage and defensive rebounding percentage, and overall is the top rebounder in the ACC. Obviously we need that to continue.

Your point about consistency is also well taken, and I think the key on both sides of the ball is Quinn. Coach K's defensive schemes have always been keyed by our PG, and on offense Quinn's decision making has been a bit erratic. Still, he ranks 5th in the ACC in assist percentage and still sports a 3 to 1 A/TO ratio, so he's still playing at a high level overall.

Finally, I agree with you that the most fascinating aspect of this Phase is how long will Coach K go with the line change system, essentially playing a 10 (or even 11) man rotation. It does appear to bring energy to the team, especially on the defensive end, and it does seem to allow Jabari to keep his battery charged, but it is such a departure from Coach K's historical norm that I keep thinking he's going to stop using it. Obviously we can only wait and see on that one.

Again, great job. I'm really looking forward to this Phase.

[OldSchool]

Though the last couple of games have been better, Jabari simply has to relax. After the hot start, and perhaps the major media attention was a factor, he seemed to want to play too fast on offense. His shots seemed rushed; they were often too quick in the offense. It often seemed like he had decided in advance that the shot was going up, and regardless of what the defense did, the shot went up. I don't like sports cliches at all, but he really does need to let the game come to him rather than force it. Yes, being aggressive is good, and I like seeing him take it to the rack, because he's going to get fouled a lot, but he can't be so quick to jack up contested jump shots, not when we have so many other talented players on the floor. I would like to see him drive it to the hoop more; his body is huge, his handle is good, and he can take it all the way. If he gets stopped, guys are going to be open for kickouts or dumpoffs. Find them. It'll result in a lot of easy hoops. And when you do that, and make the defense play you for the drive too, then the stop and pop, the pull-up, and the step back will be much more available. Relax, young fella. Trust your teammates. Take a sad song and make it better.

Great write-up. Agree on Jabari needing to let the game come to him more. A guy with his offensive skill set really ought to be collecting more than 0.5 assists per game in conference play. He can certainly fill it up all by himself if he sets his mind to that, but a little less Carmelo and a little more LeBron would be making better use of his skills for both himself and the team.

[jv001]

tommy, great phase IV write up. I like the idea of bringing Jabari into the high post where he can hit the mid-range jumper and be able to pass to a cutter along the baseline. I don't want to go away all together with Amile at that position, but like you say, he hasn't taken the 13' jumper yet. Against Cuse, we will need someone to take and hit that shot. Good catch on Plumlee. While he's not a game changer, he is active while in the game and I think he's going to get better. Thanks for the Phase IV. GoDuke!

[CDu]

One other thing to keep an eye on will be Jefferson's ability to get behind the Syracuse zone. One thing that our 3pt shooters can do is draw the 'Cuse back line away from the baseline. Jefferson (Parker, too) can sneak in behind them and (if we can find them) can get easy baskets.

The first key will be making some outside shots to draw the defense out. But if that happens, the baseline is another opportunity where our guys can exploit the 'Cuse.

[superdave]

9. Playing from ahead/closing out games. This was a concern in Phase III. We lost second half leads to Notre Dame and completely melted down in the second half against Clemson. We blew a double digit lead late at home against UVA, but at least recovered to win that one thanks to a very friendly bounce on Rasheed's 3-pointer. But I was very encouraged in the last couple of games. We got up on State, and while they were prone, we just jammed our boot onto their throat. No letup. No chance of a comeback. Pretty much the same thing against Miami. While we built the lead in a more methodical manner, and we did have a mini-lapse in the second half, we were never threatened. This is all about mindset. Once we get a lead, we cannot go into cruise control. We cannot lose our aggressiveness. We must remember how we got the lead in the first place, and continue to go there until the game is in hand. The coaches can harp on it all they want; the players have to buy into it mentally.


Rasheed has played with the first unit in crunchtime of late. I've also seen him guard the point guard some, even with Cook on the floor. He is playing defense at the level we hoped he would at the beginning of the season.

Quinn dominated Cat Barber in the NCSU and was all over Barber and Tyler Lewis every inch of the floor. With Rasheed available to guard the point some and Thornton getting minutes with the second unit, hopefully Quinn recognizes he should have the energy to play all out on D. In the last three games, Quinn has played 80 total minutes. In the three games before that (including Ls to ND, Clemson) he played a total of 116 minutes. That's a big change for him with the platoon going, and hopefully he can take advantage of that rest and play with higher energy and more focus.

I feel pretty good about Rasheed and Quinn guarding the ball right now, certainly better than I did earlier this season. These two are a huge key for stopping the ball and keeping the lane clear of drivers.

If these guys can keep up their defensive play, the team should learn to get the big stops late in games that we're going to need.

[jv001]

Rasheed has played with the first unit in crunchtime of late. I've also seen him guard the point guard some, even with Cook on the floor. He is playing defense at the level we hoped he would at the beginning of the season.

Quinn dominated Cat Barber in the NCSU and was all over Barber and Tyler Lewis every inch of the floor. With Rasheed available to guard the point some and Thornton getting minutes with the second unit, hopefully Quinn recognizes he should have the energy to play all out on D. In the last three games, Quinn has played 80 total minutes. In the three games before that (including Ls to ND, Clemson) he played a total of 116 minutes. That's a big change for him with the platoon going, and hopefully he can take advantage of that rest and play with higher energy and more focus.

I feel pretty good about Rasheed and Quinn guarding the ball right now, certainly better than I did earlier this season. These two are a huge key for stopping the ball and keeping the lane clear of drivers.
If these guys can keep up their defensive play, the team should learn to get the big stops late in games that we're going to need.

I feel pretty good having Matt available to guard the ball as well. The line change as been kind to Duke and I hope we continue to use it. GoDuke!

[superdave]

7. The rotation. Will K continue with the platoon system? His history is to shorten the bench as the season wears on, to eight at the most but usually more like seven. But the platoon system is working. I think it is working for a number of reasons. One is because it provides both units with an identity, and each player a clear role. There is a real camaraderie on each squad. There is much more energy coming from Duke, not only because of the esprit de corps that the guys on each platoon feel, but also because they're better rested. But the platoon system is not being utilized for the entire game, or close to it. Gradually, K integrates the top guys from the "Blue" team -- Rasheed and Andre primarily, plus some of Tyler -- in with the guys who started, and Matt plays less. In particular, I think the system has been a godsend for Rasheed Sulaimon. He, along with Andre, is clearly the guy expected to carry the scoring load. He is not expected to defer, as he does when on the floor with Jabari and Rodney. He can hunt his shot aggressively, whether it be the outside J, pulling up for a midrange shot, or taking it all the way. He is playing loose and playing confidently, because he is the leader out there with that squad. It's a perfect example of Coach K tailoring his strategy to not only the physical, but the emotional makeup of his players.

Who knows if Coach will keep using this system? None of us saw it coming in the first place, so how would we know how long he'll continue to deploy it? But the team's fortunes appeared to turn for the better, and do so in a big way, when he went to it. I don't see any reason to discard it at this point. If it ain't broke . . .


Here is a comparison of minutes from the last three games with the old substitution pattern and most recent three games with the new platoon substitution pattern for each guy. The first number is total minutes from ND/GT/Clemson and the second number is UVa/NCSU/Miami -

Cook 116, 80
Jones 5, 52
Hood 110, 91
Parker 78, 84
Jefferson 76, 84
Thornton 54, 40
Sulaimon 70, 64
Dawkins 63, 35
Hairston 21, 27
Plumlee 6, 32
Ojeleye 1, 9

Cook's dropoff is the biggest at 36 minutes, Dawkins is second at 28 with Hood third at 19.

Jones' increase is the biggest at 47, with Plumlee next at 26 more minutes over the three game stretches.

Dawkins really emerged as a weapon after a slow start. His 3-ball spreads the floor for the rest of our guys. We'll have to watch to see if his minutes return to a higher level or if he can remain effective in fewer minutes. Additionally, giving Cook more rest can make him more effective on the defensive end of the floor, so it will be interesting to see if things play out that way for him. It may take another couple of games to see if the platoon system remains and how guys react to it against some big time teams.

[Kedsy]

Dawkins really emerged as a weapon after a slow start. His 3-ball spreads the floor for the rest of our guys. We'll have to watch to see if his minutes return to a higher level or if he can remain effective in fewer minutes.

Yeah, looking at your minute breakdown, the one tweak that I'd personally like to see is Andre getting 5 or so more minutes a game. Who those 5 minutes come from, however, I'm not sure. Would reducing Matt to 12 or so mpg blunt the defensive progress we've been making? Is there some other combination that would allow Andre's potent offense to see the court 17 or 18 mpg instead of 12?

Andre is certainly an important weapon, both against FSU and also Syracuse's zone. How K allocates minutes to him will certainly be something to watch.

[Lar77]

Here is a comparison of minutes from the last three games with the old substitution pattern and most recent three games with the new platoon substitution pattern for each guy. The first number is total minutes from ND/GT/Clemson and the second number is UVa/NCSU/Miami -

Cook 116, 80
Jones 5, 52
Hood 110, 91
Parker 78, 84
Jefferson 76, 84
Thornton 54, 40
Sulaimon 70, 64
Dawkins 63, 35
Hairston 21, 27
Plumlee 6, 32
Ojeleye 1, 9

Cook's dropoff is the biggest at 36 minutes, Dawkins is second at 28 with Hood third at 19.

Jones' increase is the biggest at 47, with Plumlee next at 26 more minutes over the three game stretches.

Dawkins really emerged as a weapon after a slow start. His 3-ball spreads the floor for the rest of our guys. We'll have to watch to see if his minutes return to a higher level or if he can remain effective in fewer minutes. Additionally, giving Cook more rest can make him more effective on the defensive end of the floor, so it will be interesting to see if things play out that way for him. It may take another couple of games to see if the platoon system remains and how guys react to it against some big time teams.


Thanks Superdave. Interesting analysis - a little skewed because Jabari sat for significant stretches during the ND and GT games compared to prior games. The starters are averaging 130 minutes a game over the last 3 games with 66 going to the second 5. I like the two line concept and the results it has produced so far. Tomorrow will be a good test.

[jv001]

Here is a comparison of minutes from the last three games with the old substitution pattern and most recent three games with the new platoon substitution pattern for each guy. The first number is total minutes from ND/GT/Clemson and the second number is UVa/NCSU/Miami -

Cook 116, 80
Jones 5, 52
Hood 110, 91
Parker 78, 84
Jefferson 76, 84
Thornton 54, 40
Sulaimon 70, 64
Dawkins 63, 35
Hairston 21, 27
Plumlee 6, 32
Ojeleye 1, 9

Cook's dropoff is the biggest at 36 minutes, Dawkins is second at 28 with Hood third at 19.

Jones' increase is the biggest at 47, with Plumlee next at 26 more minutes over the three game stretches.

Dawkins really emerged as a weapon after a slow start. His 3-ball spreads the floor for the rest of our guys. We'll have to watch to see if his minutes return to a higher level or if he can remain effective in fewer minutes. Additionally, giving Cook more rest can make him more effective on the defensive end of the floor, so it will be interesting to see if things play out that way for him. It may take another couple of games to see if the platoon system remains and how guys react to it against some big time teams.

Thanks for taking the time to give us this breakdown. I'm with Kedsy that I would like to see Andre get a few more minutes going forward. His defense has improved enough that he's not a liability in that phase of his game. He can be a zone buster. I like the line change and it's evident it's been a contributor to our better play. GoDuke!

[Bob Green]

9. Playing from ahead/closing out games. This was a concern in Phase III. We lost second half leads to Notre Dame and completely melted down in the second half against Clemson. We blew a double digit lead late at home against UVA, but at least recovered to win that one thanks to a very friendly bounce on Rasheed's 3-pointer. But I was very encouraged in the last couple of games. We got up on State, and while they were prone, we just jammed our boot onto their throat. No letup. No chance of a comeback. Pretty much the same thing against Miami. While we built the lead in a more methodical manner, and we did have a mini-lapse in the second half, we were never threatened. This is all about mindset. Once we get a lead, we cannot go into cruise control. We cannot lose our aggressiveness. We must remember how we got the lead in the first place, and continue to go there until the game is in hand. The coaches can harp on it all they want; the players have to buy into it mentally.



Thanks for the excellent post, Tommy! You bring you multiple important points for the fans to keep an eye on over the next six games with "Playing from ahead/closing out games" being the most important for me. This team is a work in progress with Coach K striving to transform them into champions. Developing a killer instinct might be the most important transformation left to accomplish.

[Bob Green]

Phase IV consists of the middle six ACC games, and it will be a bear.

We are at the halfway point of Phase IV with a 2-1 record so I thought it appropriate to bump Tommy's excellent analysis back to the top for discussion.

On paper, the first three games of this phase are much more difficult than the next three games, which are Wake Forest in Cameron followed by at Boston College and at North Carolina. Winning all three remaining games to finish with a 5-1 record in the middle six games of the ACC schedule is realistically achievable. Let's take care of business one game at a time!

[Newton_14]

We are at the halfway point of Phase IV with a 2-1 record so I thought it appropriate to bump Tommy's excellent analysis back to the top for discussion.

On paper, the first three games of this phase are much more difficult than the next three games, which are Wake Forest in Cameron followed by at Boston College and at North Carolina. Winning all three remaining games to finish with a 5-1 record in the middle six games of the ACC schedule is realistically achievable. Let's take care of business one game at a time!

I agree. So far so good in this Phase. I think most would have been happy with a split in the Pitt/Cuse games going in. So close to 3-0! Let's win these final 3 games in this phase and carry heavy momentum and confidence into Phase V. That would be huge!

That said, realistically, the next goal? Beat Wake! One game at a time folks. One game at a time!

[nocilla]

Not to get ahead of ourselves but the BC game concerns me more than it probably should. I know their record is terrible, but this is the same team that gave us a hard time last year at their place. They were expected to be better than they are and for some reason I expect them to realize that when Duke comes to town. Hopefully I am wrong.

[FerryFor50]

Not to get ahead of ourselves but the BC game concerns me more than it probably should. I know their record is terrible, but this is the same team that gave us a hard time last year at their place. They were expected to be better than they are and for some reason I expect them to realize that when Duke comes to town. Hopefully I am wrong.

BC is so bad... I wouldn't really worry about them. Wake is more of a concern than BC.

[Kedsy]

Not to get ahead of ourselves but the BC game concerns me more than it probably should. I know their record is terrible, but this is the same team that gave us a hard time last year at their place. They were expected to be better than they are and for some reason I expect them to realize that when Duke comes to town. Hopefully I am wrong.


BC is so bad... I wouldn't really worry about them. Wake is more of a concern than BC.

I'm with nocilla on this. BC hasn't played well this year, but they have several really good players and a good coach and pre-season were expected by many to be in the top half of the ACC. The top seven players in BC's rotation are 5 juniors and 2 sophomores, so they have experience. They've lost 7-footer Dennis Clifford for the season, and I guess that's hurt them a lot, but at home against Duke, BC is a dangerous team, especially since they'll probably all have the confidence borne from how close they came last season.

Plus, we're playing Wake at Duke. Since Bzdelik took over at Wake, they are 2-27 in ACC road games. Both road wins were against the ACC's worst (non-Wake) team at the time. Wake is a better team than they have been in the recent past, but it would be a huuuuuuge upset if they even play close this week in Durham. A road game against BC is a much bigger threat.

[Saratoga2]

Going back to the original post, our line change concept was bound to be modified as experience with it grew. I was surprised that we went away from using Matt along with Quinn as starters. I thought that lineup helped our energy and defense and we had a lot of scoring in the starting lineup and didn't need more.

I also thought that continuing with heavy substitution patterns, if not line changes, would avoid building up too many fouls on our front line players and perhaps tire opponents with short benches. We are deep and have more ability to substitute than most we play.

As far as Marshall's play, I agree that he has a place and can be disruptive to opponents trying to score inside. He is getting about the right amount of time and can spell Amile and Jabari inside. What I would like to see, and maybe it is not possible at Marshall's level of development, is for him to at least threaten offensively. In the Syracuse game he went to the top of the key but instead of posing a threat he immediately tossed the ball back out. That doesn't stress the opponent defense and was wasted energy. I wonder if he has a short jump shot in his arsenal?

In end of game situations, with a solid lead, I like having our best ball handlers and foul shooters in the game together. Too bad we missed key foul shots down the stretch at Syracuse, while they shot extremely well.

I would also like us to explore the use of Semi in phase 4. The kid is an excellent athlete, very strong and has more size than our guards. Giving him some time against the next opponents may open and alternative in games such as Syracuse. Could he guard a Grant or a Christmas more effectively than one of our guards or Josh? I don't think we know the answer, but of course the coaches have seen more than us, but still!

[Eakane]

Going back to the original post, our line change concept was bound to be modified as experience with it grew. I was surprised that we went away from using Matt along with Quinn as starters. I thought that lineup helped our energy and defense and we had a lot of scoring in the starting lineup and didn't need more.

I would also like us to explore the use of Semi in phase 4. The kid is an excellent athlete, very strong and has more size than our guards. Giving him some time against the next opponents may open and alternative in games such as Syracuse. Could he guard a Grant or a Christmas more effectively than one of our guards or Josh? I don't think we know the answer, but of course the coaches have seen more than us, but still!

I had the same thought during the ot. With Jabari, Amile and Dawkins fouled out, and Syracuse getting dunk after dunk, and MPIII seemingly unable to do anything about it other than foul himself, it would have been nice to see if a 6-8 250 pounder could stop the bleeding. 2 years from now, people are going to see how good this kid is and wonder why he wasn't playing more from the get go.

[jv001]

I had the same thought during the ot. With Jabari, Amile and Dawkins fouled out, and Syracuse getting dunk after dunk, and MPIII seemingly unable to do anything about it other than foul himself, it would have been nice to see if a 6-8 250 pounder could stop the bleeding. 2 years from now, people are going to see how good this kid is and wonder why he wasn't playing more from the get go.

Way to throw a Duke player under the bus. The two fouls called on Marshall were gifts by the refs. Not enough contact to move a dieting "twiggy". I would like to see Semi get some playing time, but it was not going to happen in the closing minutes of that classic game. I see a lot of potential in Semi and think he will be a productive player in the coming years. Maybe even next season but he will really have to impress Coach K in practice during he next couple of weeks. GoDuke!

[DukieinSoCal]

Thanks for taking the time to give us this breakdown. I'm with Kedsy that I would like to see Andre get a few more minutes going forward. His defense has improved enough that he's not a liability in that phase of his game. He can be a zone buster. I like the line change and it's evident it's been a contributor to our better play. GoDuke!

I agree that Andre is a great fit on this team. We need a dead-eye shooter to spread the floor. I also can't help thinking that our best backcourt may be Sheed and Dre. Sheed is playing with so much confidence lately. He's been especially effective at driving the ball and finding open teammates, something that Quinn doesn't do much in the half-court offense. Against elite teams, Quinn has struggled a bit on both ends of the court. I just wonder if Sheed's athleticism and size would give our lineup the most possible upside.

[Eakane]

Way to throw a Duke player under the bus. The two fouls called on Marshall were gifts by the refs. Not enough contact to move a dieting "twiggy". I would like to see Semi get some playing time, but it was not going to happen in the closing minutes of that classic game. I see a lot of potential in Semi and think he will be a productive player in the coming years. Maybe even next season but he will really have to impress Coach K in practice during he next couple of weeks. GoDuke!

Poor wording on my point. Didn't mean it that way. I meant that he too, could do nothing to stop the dunkfest, and, like Dawkins, could do no more than committ the foul. My bad.

No doubt Semi needs to earn playing time in practice, I just thought this might be his moment, given the game and the foul(ed out) situation. If he can't get in the game when 3 players have fouled out, and some monster in Orange is abusing whomever is on him, I guess I need to wait to see him in 2016.

[tommy]

Poor wording on my point. Didn't mean it that way. I meant that he too, could do nothing to stop the dunkfest, and, like Dawkins, could do no more than committ the foul. My bad.

No doubt Semi needs to earn playing time in practice, I just thought this might be his moment, given the game and the foul(ed out) situation. If he can't get in the game when 3 players have fouled out, and some monster in Orange is abusing whomever is on him, I guess I need to wait to see him in 2016.

I think it'll be 2014 that he competes for meaningful minutes. Just the fall of 2014, not the spring. :D

[Troublemaker]

I had the same thought during the ot. With Jabari, Amile and Dawkins fouled out, and Syracuse getting dunk after dunk, and MPIII seemingly unable to do anything about it other than foul himself, it would have been nice to see if a 6-8 250 pounder could stop the bleeding. 2 years from now, people are going to see how good this kid is and wonder why he wasn't playing more from the get go.

Dude! Don't hold out on us. Please do share with everyone the source of your unique insight into Semi.

Actually, scratch that, forget about us! Go ahead and email Coach K the youtube clips of Semi that you've watched, stat! I especially like the one where his high school does the Harlem Shake in the middle. Great beats in that vid, pre-Shake and post-Shake. The Shake portion itself, I'm not too fond of.

[jipops]

Poor wording on my point. Didn't mean it that way. I meant that he too, could do nothing to stop the dunkfest, and, like Dawkins, could do no more than committ the foul. My bad.

No doubt Semi needs to earn playing time in practice, I just thought this might be his moment, given the game and the foul(ed out) situation. If he can't get in the game when 3 players have fouled out, and some monster in Orange is abusing whomever is on him, I guess I need to wait to see him in 2016.

The game is way too fast for Semi right now. Just because he's a physical beast doesn't mean he currently has the skills for this level. It was widely assumed already that it would take time for him to contribute seeing as his high school competition was at such a lower level.

[Des Esseintes]

I had the same thought during the ot. With Jabari, Amile and Dawkins fouled out, and Syracuse getting dunk after dunk, and MPIII seemingly unable to do anything about it other than foul himself, it would have been nice to see if a 6-8 250 pounder could stop the bleeding. 2 years from now, people are going to see how good this kid is and wonder why he wasn't playing more from the get go.


Dude! Don't hold out on us. Please do share with everyone the source of your unique insight into Semi.

Actually, scratch that, forget about us! Go ahead and email Coach K the youtube clips of Semi that you've watched, stat! I especially like the one where his high school does the Harlem Shake in the middle. Great beats in that vid, pre-Shake and post-Shake. The Shake portion itself, I'm not too fond of.

For effing real. The only people who will be "wondering" in two years why Semi "wasn't playing more from the get go" will be those cannot grasp that most players are better as juniors than they are as freshmen.

[gam7]

What does the postponement do to the Phase threads? Is the Phase now over? Does it end with the next game? Does it end with the rescheduled UNC game? Decisions, decisions.

[NSDukeFan]

What does the postponement do to the Phase threads? Is the Phase now over? Does it end with the next game? Does it end with the rescheduled UNC game? Decisions, decisions.

This is almost as bad as what Roy is going through.

[Newton_14]

What does the postponement do to the Phase threads? Is the Phase now over? Does it end with the next game? Does it end with the rescheduled UNC game? Decisions, decisions.

Great question! CDu was primed and ready to release the next Phase Post tomorrow. We obviously have to figure this out. My initial thought is to stick with the "6 games" plan and have him wait until after the Maryland game and let Maryland be the last game of this current Phase. Stay tuned...


This is almost as bad as what Roy is going through.
Not even close! Roy is a mess right now, really. We should pray for him. I just cannot imagine having to deal with a game getting cancelled, just when I had my team on a roll. This is just devastating. One of those once in a hundred year events you just can't plan for. I honestly don't know where Roy goes from here. This is just a catastrophic situation. I am sure all of those folks stranded in their cars on Triangle Roads right now are sitting there feeling thankful and blessed that they are not in Roy Williams shoes right now. Just tragic.

[tommy]

With the postponement of the UNC game, we’re going to call that the end of the (truncated) Phase IV. So how’d we do on the issues that I raised in the original post? (the numbered list feature is screwing things up so I'll spell out the numbers of the issues 'one' 'two' etc.)

One. Health. While nothing disastrous happened, we did suffer a couple of tweaks, one more major than the other, apparently. Quinn Cook sprained an ankle, which caused him to not even start the Pittsburgh game (though he did end up playing 27 minutes in that game), and it seems like it continued to affect him in the succeeding couple of weeks. He didn’t have the same explosiveness in getting into the lane – and didn’t try to do so as much – and didn’t have any lift on his shot. He shot a combined 7 of 25 (28%) in the Pitt, Syracuse, and Wake games, but then came out of it strong at BC, hitting 7 of 10, including 5 of 7 from 3-point land and seemed to move a lot better. Hopefully that is a sign that his ankle is mostly, or entirely, healed.

Marshall Plumlee suffered what is being termed a minor knee injury, which caused him to miss the BC game.He had played well in a number of games leading up to that one, and appears to have gained a little confidence out there.Hopefully he’ll be back for Maryland.

Oh, and Rodney Hood has either been medicated and stopped throwing up right before the game starts, or he’s getting it out of the way earlier, and is ready to go at tipoff.Whatever you need to do, Rod.


Two. Consistency and balance. There’s no doubt that our offense has been, and will continue to be, much stronger than our defense. Our offensive efficiency is off the charts from a historical perspective, so of course our defensive numbers will pale in comparison. But still, while the defensive performance has still been a bit up and down, and our overall defensive ratings are not good, what I see is a much more consistent effort on defense. We are playing hard on just about every possession, we are communicating better, our hedging and switching has improved and we’re doing better – if still not great – at preventing dribble penetration. We’re working at it, and while we’re still not where we’d like to be, it feels to me like a more balanced team than it was earlier in the year. Also, in terms of the defensive numbers, we enjoyed a couple of blowout wins in this Phase, and the defense relaxed a bit late in those games, which made the numbers look worse.

In the initial post, I talked a little about the see-saw nature of our performance. Great games followed by terrible ones, and then back to good ones, then backsliding again. I didn’t see that in this phase. While of course there are always going to be runs within games – it’s the nature of basketball -- I think we played well in all five games. Really well. The team has certainly become more consistent both in its effort and in the performances it’s producing than it was in the pre-conference season and in the early part of the ACC schedule.


Three. Jabari. In the initial post, I opined that Jabari wanted to play too fast on offense, that he seemed to be rushing things, too quick to jack up difficult, contested jumpshots, and not recognizing just how talented his teammates are. He was making the game too difficult.

I think he relaxed a lot during this phase, and his offensive performance improved.Despite a bad shooting night in the first game of the phase, against FSU, he shot 36 of 75 over the five games, which is 48%, a big jump from the 36% he shot in the previous seven games.While he has not been shooting the 3-ball well, what I like, frankly, is that he’s shooting a lot less of them – only ten in the five games, and six of the ten were in one game, vs. Pitt.His shot selection has improved a lot.

Also, he’s taken a much different approach on the interior.Earlier in the year, he was getting his shot blocked a lot inside, and was really struggling to finish.I think it was because he wasn’t going up as strong as he could.He was flipping shots up, reverse layups and the like, and he was having trouble against quality defenders.Now, when he goes up, he’s going up to dunk the ball, and he’s been dunking everything in sight.Those tend to help the shooting percentage.

And, finally, Jabari seems to have really committed to being an outstanding rebounder. In the last five games, his rebounding numbers have gone 14-11-9-8-16 (and the one before that he had 15) so counting the last game of the previous Phase, he’s averaged over 12 boards a game in the last six.The previous five games:4-6-7-3-7, for an average of just 5.4.I said that in order for this team to play into April, we need Jabari Parker to play like a true star.And he has.


Four. Rodney Hood, the Robin to Jabari’s Batman, has hit a (hopefully) minor stretch here where his shot has not been falling. Let me correct that. His 2-point shots have not been falling. From 3-point land, where he is at 45% for the year, he hit 42.3% during this phase. But on two pointers, where he is at 52.6% on the season, he only hit 34.6% during this phase. A little of that is due to some difficulty he’s had in finishing plays, some it is due to getting hammered right in front of a referee on game altering dunks in big games against undefeated teams in huge arenas, but I don’t know what else is going on. I do know I want him to keep shooting.

I did mention in the initial phase post that he had not been getting to the line much earlier in the year, and that I would like to see him take it strong to the hole more often.He shot 11 free throws against FSU, but in the four games since, it’s been 0-2-0-2.While Jabari and Rasheed have shown the ability to drive the ball, I see no reason why Rodney can’t do it more consistently too.He’s an 83% FT shooter.I’d still like to see him get to the stripe more often.

But the big positive development I see is Rodney’s defensive play.For one, he completely shut down Pitt’s best player, Lamar Patterson, holding him to 4 of 14 shooting and rendering him invisible for long stretches of that very important game.Syracuse was tough on everybody defensively, but Rodney IMO has played much, much better defense in this last stretch of games than he had been playing earlier in the year.He has been that long, long-armed harassing wing defender who has made penetration more difficult, entry passes more difficult, and who has been effective and much more consistent in executing Duke’s team concepts at the defensive end.


Five. Defense. I’ve kind of covered a lot of this in the above paragraphs. The numbers haven’t been stellar, but I still feel like things have improved. Better against penetration, better denial inside, better help, better hedging. None of it is great, but it’s all better than it was. In four of the five games we held the opponent under 70 points. We’re not going to lose many games when we do that. In fact, we haven’t lost any of those this year. Also, we’re forcing more turnovers on a percentage basis – we just killed FSU and Wake in that area.


Six. Rebounding. Dickie V and Doris and their ignorance be damned, rebounding has become a real strength of this team, with Amile Jefferson proving to be one of the best board men in the conference and Jabari, as mentioned above, just killing it on the boards as well. Some of the numbers – in particular the offensive rebounding numbers -- were just unbelievable during this Phase: 27 offensive rebounds against Florida State? Wha? Outrebounding them 47-24 overall? Huh?

This team averages about 11 offensive boards a game on the year.During this phase, that jumped about 50%, to 16.2.That’s “wow” type of improvement.Our defensive board raw numbers actually dipped a bit, as we average about 23 per game and only grabbed slightly less than 20 during this phase.But in one of those games, when we only got 13 defensive rebounds against Wake Forest, there were far fewer opportunities.We turned Wake over 19 times and they only got 39 shots up – the lowest opponent total of the year.

As long as we stay healthy and Amile and Jabari in particular stay fresh, I think this team rebounds just fine.Good enough to beat anybody.The concern I expressed in the original post was about Amile and his potentially wearing down due to the beating his thin body was taking in there.Over the course of this phase, his minutes, on average, stayed pretty steady, and so did his rebounding totals.So far so good, but something to still keep an eye on as we head down the stretch.


Seven. The rotation. Well, the two-line system proved to be short-lived. While it seemed to be working, perhaps Coach K intended that it only be used for a finite period of time, intended to achieve some concrete results and establish some patterns – physical and mental -- that could then carry over when he returned to a more “normal” substitution pattern. The team really did seem to improve its energy, focus, and intensity using the two lines, and that has indeed carried over even in the absence of the 5-in, 5-out system.

In this phase, Jabari’s minutes went up compared to when he was slumping.The only games he didn’t play as many minutes were Syracuse, when he was in a lot of foul trouble, and Wake, which was a blowout.But he certainly showed that he could go 38 extremely strong minutes against BC.Rodney continued to get 30+ minutes.Amile’s minutes are always in the 20’s.Rasheed averaged 30 mpg during this phase – a significant increase from earlier in the ACC season.He’s earned it.In fact, I think he benefitted the most from the move to the two-line system.He really gained, or regained, a lot of confidence leading that “second” team and being the main go-to guy, and his whole game seems re-energized.I just love that even in the absence of the two-line system, Rasheed has built on what he learned about himself during that part of the season, and has taken his game to another level.He’s a real difference-maker.

Quinn’s minutes are down.With the exception of the Syracuse game, when he went 40, he’s averaged more like 25 per game lately, as opposed to the mid-30’s for much of the rest of the season.Some of that may be due to the ankle, but I don’t think so.I think more likely is that K has realized that Quinn is more effective with a little more rest and a little more opportunity to sit on the bench and watch what’s going on out there.And importantly, I think K has discovered that our offense can thrive with Rasheed running the point.He may not have known that before.But still, Quinn is obviously a critical part of the rotation.

I’m not quite sure I understand why Andre Dawkins’ minutes have shrunk in this middle part of the ACC schedule.He only got 16 mpg during this five game phase, and that includes the overtime-enhanced 28 against Syracuse.He’s played very well IMO.Andre is not a defensive dynamo, but nor is he the obvious liability he once was (except when physically overmatched such as he was late against Syracuse.) I don’t know.Perhaps K likes to keep him in his pocket, available to come in, quickly bang home a couple of three’s, and then sit, hungry for the opportunity to do it again, and in the meantime not give him the continuous court time that in the past has led to significant lapses in focus and attention on the defensive end.I don’t know, though.Kid shot 56% from 3-point range during this five game phase.That’s sick.

Tyler Thornton is still getting 20+ minutes per night, and the senior has been productive at both ends.I wouldn’t expect that to change.

So that’s the main 7. Little hard to know what we’re going to see out of Marshall going forward, both because of the knee and the fact that he’s the eighth man – but he has gotten double figure minutes in five of his last seven games, and like I said earlier, he’s contributed.But we know that K’s history is to tighten things up in the big games, and they all start to get big at this point in the season.But Plumlee does appear to have passed Josh Hairston on the depth chart, which I know makes a lot of folks on DBR quite happy.Josh has gotten double figure minutes in just one of the last 11 games, that being the blowout of NC State.Matt Jones is getting about 5 minutes per game most nights, which is the most that a tenth man under Coach K can expect.Kid’s minutes have really been all over the map this year though. Semi got a little extra burn against BC due to Marshall being out, but he’s gonna have to wait until next year.


Eight. Marshall Plumlee. Again, he’s largely been covered in previous paragraphs. If his knee is sound, I wouldn’t be surprised if he continues to get 8-10-12 minutes per game, as his energy and size do have an impact. Skill-wise he still has a long way to go, but he’s been pretty good as an offensive rebounder and, on our knees now, folks, during this phase he hit not one, not two, but three free throws. He’s off the schneid.


Nine. Playing from ahead/closing out games. I was very pleased with how we did in this department during this phase. Against FSU, we took over midway through the first half, were up 18 by halftime, and while they did cut it to 11 at one point in the second half, we were never threatened, and won going away by 22. Against Pitt, it was nip and tuck for the first 31 minutes, but then we made a run over 2 ½ minutes and went up 13. They never got closer than 10, and we won by 15 at their house. Very, very nice. Syracuse: playing from ahead and nursing a lead was not really something we had an opportunity to do. Wake battled us for 13 minutes, but only scored 5 points in the last 7 minutes of the half, during which time we went from down 2 to up 13. They got it to 10 early in the second half, but we gradually pulled away, and never gave them any real chance to get back into the game, winning by 20. BC played us quite tough for a half, but we stretched a 4 point halftime lead to double digits early in the second half, and never looked back, coasting to a 21 point win.

I didn’t see one instance in this phase of us having a lead of any real size at all and losing focus and concentration and letting a team (who we had down) get back into the game. I give us an A in this category for this phase.


Ten. Playing against the zone. I thought we did really well. Heck, Syracuse has the toughest zone in the nation and we did score 89 points against them, which is better than anyone else has done all year. Heck, they’ve only give up 70+ points two other times all season. I was concerned in the original phase post about what we were going to be able to do once the ball was passed to the free throw line to Amile, as he does not possess that FT line jump shot, and that concern turned out to be a real one. It was even worse with Marshall in there, as Syracuse learned quickly that he is no threat with the ball at that spot on the floor, and in fact didn’t even look at the basket most times. Finally, we did start to put Jabari in the middle, and that worked much better. I still think Rodney would work well in that role as well.


Ok if anyone is still with me, that’s it.I consider it a very successful phase, 4-1 with three of the wins blowouts, the fourth a solid 15 point win against a very good team on the road, and the lone loss being about as “good” a loss as a team can have, all things considered.I said that I’d like to see us come out of this phase with a full head of steam as we reach the top of the stretch, and I think we just might have that.It would’ve been nice to bring that steam to Carolina last night, but it was not to be.I guess we’ll just have to enjoy the extra rest instead.

On to the next phase.Look forward to your comments on how we did during this just finished, slightly abbreviated Phase IV.

[Troublemaker]

tommy - Thanks for an excellent Phase post and Phase recap. I enjoyed reading every word.

I agree with you. Very successful Phase. I wish I could say more but you covered pretty much everything!

[Kedsy]

Great wrapup, tommy. I agree with everything you've said.

As far as rebounding goes, I wrote this article (http://bluedevilnation.net/2014/02/rebound-duke-hits-boards/) about it over on Blue Devil Nation. If you look at rebounding percentages instead of total rebounds, it takes things like fewer opportunities about Wake into account, and it backs up your points: for the season, Duke's defensive rebounding percentage is 70.2%, which would be the best defensive rebounding percentage ever under Coach K (going back to 1986-87, which is the first year offensive rebounds were kept as a reliable stat). But during this phase, our defensive rebounding is down a little but still good (for Duke), at 67.3%.

As you've also pointed out, our offensive rebounding is WAY up during the phase. Our offensive rebounding percentage for the five games is a whopping 44.8%, which for a whole season would also be the best since 1986-87. The Florida State game skews the results a little, but even in the other four games, our offensive rebounding percentage was an outstanding 39.4%.

One very interesting thing I learned while researching the article (linked above), was the correlation between offensive rebounding and strong Duke teams. Since our offense is usually so good, I'd always assumed offensive rebounding wasn't so important, but check this out:

TOP TEN DUKE OFFENSIVE REBOUNDING TEAMS UNDER COACH K

1. 1999: 44.3% (3rd in the country)
2. 1990: 40.9%
3. 2010: 40.6% (6th)
4. 1988: 40.5%
5. 1998: 39.7% (39th)
6. 1992: 39.5%
7. 2004: 39.2% (16th)
8. 1996: 38.3%
9T. 1991: 38.0%
9T. 1994: 38.0%

That's 10 teams, including 8 Final Four teams and three national champs. Only one of the teams failed to get at least to the Elite Eight. And the only reason the 1986 national finalists aren't on this list is because the offensive rebounding stat wasn't kept that season. That team's total rebounding percentage was the 2nd best in K's tenure here, and based on that personnel I'd bet that offensive rebounding was a major strength.

Which means the only Coach K Final Four teams not on this list were 2001 (37.0%) and 1989 (36.3%), and there's only one false positive (1996).

Pretty amazing, right? So I'm hoping Duke continues hammering the offensive boards this season. I don't know if we can get up above 38.0% for the season, but as long as we're playing that way come tournament time, I'll be happy.

[jv001]

tommy, thanks for your update on Phase IV through 1st UNC game(that wasn't). Like Troublemaker said, you have covered everything that I can think of. Too bad the weather slowed down our continued improvement and stopped us for the moment of adding another win. I believe that the 2 line change/rotation was big in getting Duke rolling. It seemed to energize the entire team and even the coaches. Even though Coach K has not used it in the last few games, I believe that Quinn, Andre, Marshall, Matt and Josh are ready to come in and perform at a high level. Quinn and Andre especially so. GoDuke!

[gam7]

Tremendous job, tommy. I really feel like we are seeing this team grow before our eyes and, like you, I love the current trajectory. It's great to see. Here's what I would add to your great analysis:

Point 1. Health. Coach K's mental health. It's clear (based on his comments) that Coach K's dealing with the loss of his brother had a very real impact on him and on the focus and performance of the team. This phase showed a re-focused and accountable Coach K. It may have been the UVA post-game presser when he said he took full responsibility for not being as focused in the prior stretch of games and suggested that the situation would change. Boy, has it ever.

Point 3. Jabari. In more than one pre-season interview, when the media would ask Jabari what he expected his role to be, he said that Coach K had talked to him about being more of a scorer than he had been in high school. I really think the forced shooting that you referred to was part of his concerted (and supported by coaches) effort to become more of a scorer. In learning to be more of a scorer, there inevitably were, and I suspect will continue to be, times when he forces the action a little too much. That's going to be part of his learning process. And I (and I suspect everyone on this board) absolutely can live with that.

Point 7. Rotation. It drove me a little nuts during the Syracuse overtime that Shulman and Vitale were basically making it sound as though Jerami Grant was the second coming of Len Bias. He certainly dominated, but Andre (like half the team) was saddled with 4 fouls. With Amile and Jabari already out, we couldn't afford to lose many more guys, so I wouldn't hold the overtime defensive performance against Andre. He was at a significant size, length and foul trouble disadvantage.

Again, great stuff. Bring on Phase V - fun viewing week ahead.

[Kedsy]

It drove me a little nuts during the Syracuse overtime that Shulman and Vitale were basically making it sound as though Jerami Grant was the second coming of Len Bias. He certainly dominated, but Andre (like half the team) was saddled with 4 fouls. With Amile and Jabari already out, we couldn't afford to lose many more guys, so I wouldn't hold the overtime defensive performance against Andre. He was at a significant size, length and foul trouble disadvantage.

This is a great point. With our three-for-two strategy, Andre was also our most important offensive weapon in that overtime, which is another big reason he couldn't afford to foul.