The Next Three Games: Phase Most Important!

[JasonEvans]

FSU
@ Pitt
@Syracuse

The odds are excellent that these next three games will be the defining ones for Duke's regular season this year. These are certainly the toughest stretch of games left on the schedule. The home game with Syracuse will be a challenge and obviously the UNC H/A are always a battle, no matter how so-so the Heels may look. But this 8-day stretch is unlike anything else on the schedule... by a wide margin.

Syracuse and Pitt have established themselves as top tier teams, no question about that. Pomeroy has Pitt #2 in the nation and Syracuse is #4. As for FSU, we've had trouble with big teams. All four of our losses have been to teams that have multiple big guys who handled us inside. In all four losses we were beaten soundly on the boards.

If we go 1-2 or 0-3 in this stretch, it almost certainly ends our chances of winning the ACC Regular Season title and getting the #1 seed in the ACC Tourney. We would be at 4 or 5 total losses in the league and even if we pulled off the unlikely and ran the table, I just don't see Syracuse losing 4 games. 0-3 would almost certainly end Duke's streak of being in the Top 25. I think 0-3 or even 1-2 could also really hurt the confidence of the team, depending on how the losses came about.

Going 2-1 would likely put us in the regular season race and would announce that we are back in the national title conversation. Doing so would mean at least one road win at Pitt or Syracuse, which would be a very big deal. I think the team would really believe in themselves and how much better they have gotten.

And then there is the pie-in-the-sky dream... that we exit the 8 day stretch with a 3-0 record. There would be legit fear of Duke if that was to happen. There would be talk -- reasonable talk -- that we might not lose again. I think we would be a favorite in every single game we play over the rest of the season and many would begin again talking about us as a #1 seed in the NCAA tourney.

I don't know that any of what I have said is news to any of you. I merely wanted to point out that the period from this Saturday to next Saturday is one filled with excitement, opportunity, and peril. Risk and reward are on the table. I am eager to see where we will come out.

-Jason "now would be a nice time for us to have a few 45%+ three-point shooting games ;) " Evans

[superdave]

Duke had a good stretch after the Vermont game, then the bad Notre Dame-Clemson stretch, and has now put together three wins in a row that we can feel pretty good about. Obviously beating the crap out of State is fun, but you learn more grinding out a win vs. Virginia. That Virginia win shows we can make big defensive plays, hit big shots and we learned something after folding down the stretch vs. ND. I think that was important for this team.

I do not know how the next 8 days unfold. At a minimum I want to be competitive in all three games. We did not compete at the end of the Clemson game. It was a bunch of wasted energy. The next thing I am hoping to see is the defense come together to get some big stops. Our guys lose focus at times, but I want to see them buckle down in crunch time and get a few turnovers and grab a few big boards.

3-0 would be fantastic, but I want to see the guys get a little better defensively each time out. We're set up to peak at the right time this season. If that is going to happen, we'll start seeing a consistently high level of play on the defensive end soon.

[FerryFor50]

As for FSU, we've had trouble with big teams. All four of our losses have been to teams that have multiple big guys who handled us inside. In all four losses we were beaten soundly on the boards.


Well, to be fair, Kansas (Embiid, Ellis and Black), Arizona (Gordon, Tarczewski, Ashley) and even Notre Dame (Sherman) had wayyyyy better bigs than FSU has. Clemson was the only anomaly, with their bigs not being great.

In the Notre Dame game, Duke was outrebounded, but one of the top rebounders for the Irish was 6'5" Pat Connaughton. Duke lost that game not because of rebounding or post play, but lack of help defense.

In the Kansas game, Ellis lit Duke up. But it was Wiggins as well, who isn't really a "big."

Against Arizona, Gordon and Tarczewski did well on the glass, but again, smaller guys picked up the slack, like 6'7" Hollis-Jefferson (6 boards) and 6'1" TJ McConnell (6 boards).

Clemson is really the only team Duke has lost to that I felt the bigs were the biggest reason Duke lost, but even Clemson doesn't win if Blossomgame and Nnoko don't come out of nowhere (like seriously, they stunk prior to and after that game) and KJ McDaniels doesn't grab 10 boards.

I think the Duke losses were more about running out of gas late (KU and Zona were winnable games until the end) and effort/hustle (ND and Clemson were all effort IMO). And definitely about defense.

FSU's front line is pretty big, but they're about as talented as Clemson's front line.

Okaro White - 6'9" (probably their best big)
Boris Bojanovsky - 7'3" (typical crappy Eastern European tall stiff... not much better than Jordan Vandenberg)
Michael Ojo - 7'1" (typical crappy Nigerian tall stiff)
Robert Gilchrist - 6'9" (averages 2.7 rebounds per game)
Jarquez Smith - 6'9" (plays 10 min, averages about 2 rebounds per game)

As a team, FSU is pretty much even in rebounding against their opponents. FSU has 664 rebounds (156th in the country) and has allowed 607 (118th in the country).

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/florida-state/2014.html

By contrast, Clemson has grabbed 690 rebounds (104th in the country) and allowed 587 rebounds (85th in the country).

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/clemson/2014.html

Duke has grabbed 660 rebounds (164th) and allowed 627 rebounds (155th).

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/duke/2014.html

I'd argue that Duke rebounds as well as FSU this season, but is WAY better on offense - 122.7 points per 100 possessions for Duke (2nd in the nation) vs 112.3 points per 100 possessions for FSU (44th in the nation).

The real test will be - can Duke beat FSU's defense and can Duke play defense as well as they have been the past few games?

I do agree that this stretch will tell us a lot about this Duke team. I just worry more about Pitt and Syracuse than FSU.

[COYS]

FSU
@ Pitt
@Syracuse

The odds are excellent that these next three games will be the defining ones for Duke's regular season this year. These are certainly the toughest stretch of games left on the schedule. The home game with Syracuse will be a challenge and obviously the UNC H/A are always a battle, no matter how so-so the Heels may look. But this 8-day stretch is unlike anything else on the schedule... by a wide margin.

Syracuse and Pitt have established themselves as top tier teams, no question about that. Pomeroy has Pitt #2 in the nation and Syracuse is #4. As for FSU, we've had trouble with big teams. All four of our losses have been to teams that have multiple big guys who handled us inside. In all four losses we were beaten soundly on the boards.

If we go 1-2 or 0-3 in this stretch, it almost certainly ends our chances of winning the ACC Regular Season title and getting the #1 seed in the ACC Tourney. We would be at 4 or 5 total losses in the league and even if we pulled off the unlikely and ran the table, I just don't see Syracuse losing 4 games. 0-3 would almost certainly end Duke's streak of being in the Top 25. I think 0-3 or even 1-2 could also really hurt the confidence of the team, depending on how the losses came about.

Going 2-1 would likely put us in the regular season race and would announce that we are back in the national title conversation. Doing so would mean at least one road win at Pitt or Syracuse, which would be a very big deal. I think the team would really believe in themselves and how much better they have gotten.

And then there is the pie-in-the-sky dream... that we exit the 8 day stretch with a 3-0 record. There would be legit fear of Duke if that was to happen. There would be talk -- reasonable talk -- that we might not lose again. I think we would be a favorite in every single game we play over the rest of the season and many would begin again talking about us as a #1 seed in the NCAA tourney.

I don't know that any of what I have said is news to any of you. I merely wanted to point out that the period from this Saturday to next Saturday is one filled with excitement, opportunity, and peril. Risk and reward are on the table. I am eager to see where we will come out.

-Jason "now would be a nice time for us to have a few 45%+ three-point shooting games ;) " Evans

Can't disagree with any of this. Important stretch! A few questions for the phase:

1. Pitt and Syracuse are strong offensive teams (Top 10 in KenPom). Florida State is not an elite offensive team, but they're still better than State or Miami. It's definitely an improvement that our D has made bad offensive teams look bad (we certainly weren't doing that earlier in the year), but are we actually a better defensive team or have we just benefited from playing some truly bad offensive teams? It has seemed to me that the bigs (particularly Amile) have done a MUCH better job hedging on ball screens, recently, which has dramatically improved our perimeter defense. Even when the ball handler is able to beat the hedging big and the recovering guard, we've been forcing the ball handler to take an extra step or two, which gives the help defender more time to rotate. Once the initial help defender has rotated, our other players have done a great job playing the passing lanes and cutting off all passing outlets. We've even been generating turnovers at a higher rate. Will this continue now that the competition has stepped up?

2. Can we get Andre involved in the offense more consistently? We'll be seeing zone from here on out, including the mother of all zones against 'Cuse. Rasheed did a great job attacking the zone and then throwing a skip pass to Andre in the corner last night. Andre went 1/3 in those situations (and missed one more off a pass from Quinn doing the same thing). If we attack the zone, Andre will be open in the corner. If he gets rolling as we all know he can, it would go a long way toward opening up the zone.

3. Does the rotation stick? I really think it does, at least through the first 12 minutes of the game or so. It will be very interesting to see if the staff continues to employ the line changes when the stakes are raised and the games are close throughout (despite the near collapse against Virginia, Duke was more or less in control of that game for 37 minutes).

4. Quinn and mental errors. I hate to pick on Quinn as I think he's become an excellent point guard. He's also not the only one who makes mental errors. Jabari will take some bad jumpers. Rodney and Rasheed will drive into traffic with nowhere to go. Sometimes these mistakes happen at really inopportune times. However, at the end of the day, Quinn is the leader of the offense. He has a low turnover rate and doesn't often make mistakes, but it does seem that there have been times when he makes a mistake at a critical juncture and sometimes doubles down by making another mistake on the very next possession. I want Quinn to stay aggressive and play loose without losing focus. If he can eliminate those sometimes costly mental lapses from his game, he can take a step up to the next level and become an elite point guard.

3.

[Wander]

Agreed with most of it, except to say that I could easily see Syracuse losing 4 conference games. I'd probably predict them to finish something like 14-4 actually. But of course it would still be advisable regarding the ACC regular season title to go at least 2-1 here.

[Duvall]

Agreed with most of it, except to say that I could easily see Syracuse losing 4 conference games. I'd probably predict them to finish something like 14-4 actually. But of course it would still be advisable regarding the ACC regular season title to go at least 2-1 here.

Finding three more losses for Pittsburgh is a lot tougher, actually.

[Olympic Fan]

Finding three more losses for Pittsburgh is a lot tougher, actually.

I agree (looking at Syracuse, Pitt, Virginia, Duke and FSU as the most likely NCAA teams) ... Pitt has potentially tough home games with Duke, Syracuse, Virginia and maybe FSU.

Their toughest road games are at UNC, at Notre Dame and at Clemson ... they don't play Duke or Virginia on the road (and they've already lost at Syracuse).

I could see them getting by with just 1-2 more losses.

Syracuse's path, so easy so far, is actually tougher ...

They've got to go to Duke, Pitt, Virginia and FSU.

Toughest home game left -- Duke.

Virginia actually has a reasonably easy path left. They've beaten FSU twice and lost their one game to Duke. They do have to go to Pitt and they get Syracuse at home. That's it for the tough teams. Maybe at Clemson or at Notre Dame as traps.

Duke's path is pretty tough ... ask me about their regular season chances after this three-game stretch ...

[jv001]

[QUOTE=COYS;696982]Can't disagree with any of this. Important stretch! A few questions for the phase:


3. Does the rotation stick? I really think it does, at least through the first 12 minutes of the game or so. It will be very interesting to see if the staff continues to employ the line changes when the stakes are raised and the games are close throughout (despite the near collapse against Virginia, Duke was more or less in control of that game for 37 minutes).

4. Quinn and mental errors. I hate to pick on Quinn as I think he's become an excellent point guard. He's also not the only one who makes mental errors. Jabari will take some bad jumpers. Rodney and Rasheed will drive into traffic with nowhere to go. Sometimes these mistakes happen at really inopportune times. However, at the end of the day, Quinn is the leader of the offense. He has a low turnover rate and doesn't often make mistakes, but it does seem that there have been times when he makes a mistake at a critical juncture and sometimes doubles down by making another mistake on the very next possession. I want Quinn to stay aggressive and play loose without losing focus. If he can eliminate those sometimes costly mental lapses from his game, he can take a step up to the next level and become an elite point guard.

These two observations I completely agree with. I look for the rotation to stick because I think it's one of the things that have helped us get better. Giving players a chance to get a little rest helps keep the guys focused and the intensity level up. As for Quinn, last night he hit two big shots when we were slipping a little bit. Then he makes a couple of bad plays on offense and just jogs back down court. He needs to keep his composure for the entire game. Be the leader he can be. GoDuke!

[Kedsy]

@ Pitt

One thing to note is that the Pitt game is on Monday, just two days after FSU, which is a bigger deal than it would be against a traditional ACC team because I don't think we've played against Pitt for a long time. Will two days (presumably one practice day) be enough to get ready for a top shelf unfamiliar opponent? It's another wrinkle to consider.

[kAzE]

I'd caution anyone who is already looking past FSU, are ranked #21 by KenPom, and #20 RPI. They had a blowout win over #28(KenPom) VCU and a 5 point win over #31 UMass (who is actually #5 in RPI). They have the #16 defense and aren't nearly as bad as Miami offensively, coming in #46. They are basically a lock for the NCAA tournament, and certainly a worthy opponent. Obviously, it's fortunate that we have this game at home, while the next 2 games are on the road, but I would not consider FSU an easy win by any stretch.

[tbyers11]

One thing to note is that the Pitt game is on Monday, just two days after FSU, which is a bigger deal than it would be against a traditional ACC team because I don't think we've played against Pitt for a long time. Will two days (presumably one practice day) be enough to get ready for a top shelf unfamiliar opponent? It's another wrinkle to consider.

Agree with this thought. Good thing is that Pitt only has two days to prepare for a relatively unknown opponent as well. They also play at MD Sat night at 6pm. I remember a couple of years ago when Duke had several key games where the opponent had significantly more prep time that we did. Hopefully with the new Monday games the ACC has tried to make days off between games as equal as possible.

[superdave]

One thing to note is that the Pitt game is on Monday, just two days after FSU, which is a bigger deal than it would be against a traditional ACC team because I don't think we've played against Pitt for a long time. Will two days (presumably one practice day) be enough to get ready for a top shelf unfamiliar opponent? It's another wrinkle to consider.

Pitt plays at 6pm on Saturday vs. Maryland. We have a whopping six hour advantage since our game is at Noon.

Actually, this turnaround is better for us with a bigger rotation than it would have been a few weeks ago. At least that's the theory.... we'll see how that plays out.

[JasonEvans]

Actually, this turnaround is better for us with a bigger rotation than it would have been a few weeks ago. At least that's the theory.... we'll see how that plays out.

I really really really really really really hope K does not give up on the big rotation in these games against tougher opponents. I know he is fighting his own nature with it (K believes in having your best players on the floor as much as possible) but I think it helps team morale and energy and it is just a good idea to give opponents different looks throughout the game.

-Jason "I think MP3 could play a real role against FSU's man-mountains" Evans

[fogey]

I really really really really really really hope K does not give up on the big rotation in these games against tougher opponents. I know he is fighting his own nature with it (K believes in having your best players on the floor as much as possible) but I think it helps team morale and energy and it is just a good idea to give opponents different looks throughout the game.

-Jason "I think MP3 could play a real role against FSU's man-mountains" Evans

Couldn't agree more. This tactic makes perfect sense for Duke, as we are deep- our second "line" are mostly McDonalds' AAs, and it's better to have them in the game for several minutes with unrestrained effort (while first team rests up) than have the guys on the first team pace themselves and go at less than 100%. Does miracles for our team morale, keeps energy and effort at the max, and wears down the spirit of the opponent's first teamers.

If Deano hadn't done it back in the 80's K might have rolled this out sooner! :cool:

[Kedsy]

If Deano hadn't done it back in the 80's K might have rolled this out sooner! :cool:

Did Deano really do it this way, though? My recollection is his "blue team" only played a few minutes a game, and not every game at that. What K is doing is something different. Or at least it feels that way to me.

[TKG]

I hope this team focuses only on FSU. Each team mentioned in this thread provides very different challenges. To me, this stretch will be a comment at least as much on our coaching staff as it is on the players. Can the staff adequately scout, prepare, motivate and make in-game adjustments? No doubt it will be a important three game stretch. But, to borrow the beleaguered cliche, this Duke team needs to take it one game at a time.

[Edouble]

If Deano hadn't done it back in the 80's K might have rolled this out sooner! :cool:

Why? Aren't they like beach friends now and stuff? Coach K tried out the zone and gave his buddy Jimmy B credit for the inspiration.

[Newton_14]

I really really really really really really hope K does not give up on the big rotation in these games against tougher opponents. I know he is fighting his own nature with it (K believes in having your best players on the floor as much as possible) but I think it helps team morale and energy and it is just a good idea to give opponents different looks throughout the game.

-Jason "I think MP3 could play a real role against FSU's man-mountains" Evans
To bolster your argument/wish, the level of play just has not dropped very much when the 2nd unit gets out on the floor. The depth of talent on this team is good enough that Duke can still play at a high level with either unit on the floor. Even when he migrates away from the 5 for 5 changes as the game progresses, no matter which 2nd unit kid or kids K trots out there to mix with the first unit, Duke is maintaining a high level of play.

With that, it gives me hope K will recognize that and continue to go that deep for more than just token minutes no matter who the opponent is. Old habits are hard to break but if the team maintains success with the approach I have to believe K will stay the course with it.

I loved seeing 10 guys with double figure minutes in the State game...

[Troublemaker]

I think you guys are worrying too much about Coach K reverting. His first priority is to win, and he would really like it if we win by playing good defense (although, historically kenpom-wise, he is probably at least as good an offensive coach as he is a defensive coach). To the extent that Coach K has played a short rotation in previous seasons, it was to serve those goals of winning and playing good defense. This season, with this team, the coaches have identified a problem where the players need more rest than what they had been receiving in order to play consistently good defense. (I wonder, btw, if SportVu camera data had any impact on this realization since fitness tracking is a major aspect of SportVu's usefulness (http://grantland.com/the-triangle/seven-ways-the-nbas-new-camera-system-can-change-the-future-of-basketball/)).

Therefore, Coach K, who likes to win and play good defense, is going to continue playing deeper than he had been. Will the average minutes distribution look more like the Miami game than the UVA or NCSU games? I think so. Our best players are going to be in the low 30s in minutes. Will there be games where we don't platoon at all or if we do, it'll only be for one stint in each half before mixing begins? I think so. But, the bottom line is Coach K will play deeper than he had been pre-UVA. Because the coaches identified a problem and they identified a solution, and since Coach K likes to win and play good defense, he will continue using the solution.

[JasonEvans]

Will the average minutes distribution look more like the Miami game than the UVA or NCSU games? I think so. Our best players are going to be in the low 30s in minutes. Will there be games where we don't platoon at all or if we do, it'll only be for one stint in each half before mixing begins? I think so. But, the bottom line is Coach K will play deeper than he had been pre-UVA. Because the coaches identified a problem and they identified a solution, and since Coach K likes to win and play good defense, he will continue using the solution.

Laura Keeley tweeted earlier this week that K does not expect to stick with the 5-in, 5-out rotation pattern for the rest of the season. But, I suspect that you are correct and we will be making amble use of our depth in pretty much all games. I doubt we see Duke playing only 7 or so kids any time soon and I suspect out 8th-10th men will see at least a couple/few minutes in pretty much every game going forward.

-Jason "FSU/Pitt/Syr are also a deep team (8-9 guys with double digit minutes) so I hope we continue to take advantage of our depth against them all" Evans

[CLW]

The next three games could indeed define this season. Run this gauntlet and a 1-2 seed in the dance becomes possible. However, go 1-2 or 0-3 and you could be looking at a 6-8 seed come March and a likely early exit.

[Duvall]

The next three games could indeed define this season. Run this gauntlet and a 1-2 seed in the dance becomes possible. However, go 1-2 or 0-3 and you could be looking at a 6-8 seed come March and a likely early exit.

You should probably take another look at Duke's February schedule. Not a lot of meat there.

[TruBlu]

You should probably take another look at Duke's February schedule. Not a lot of meat there.

Shouldn't this be in the BBQ thread?

[jv001]

You should probably take another look at Duke's February schedule. Not a lot of meat there.

You are correct in that February schedule being weak, but that won't help our seeding very much. We need some wins against the top teams to get that #1 or #2 seed. The main thing is to keep improving and the ACCT and NCAAT will take care of it's self. We could possibly lose 3 of the upcoming games and still get better as a team. If we reach our ceiling, then we can win 6 games in a row against anyone. GoDuke!

[Clay Feet POF]

You are correct in that February schedule being weak, but that won't help our seeding very much. We need some wins against the top teams to get that #1 or #2 seed. The main thing is to keep improving and the ACCT and NCAAT will take care of it's self. We could possibly lose 3 of the upcoming games and still get better as a team. If we reach our ceiling, then we can win 6 games in a row against anyone. GoDuke!

Absolutely, as long as we are developing our players. Play the game in front of you and everything else follows. I would rather have a lesser recorder, but still be developing than having a better recorder and being “Status Quo”. I think skill and experience will take you further in the Big Dance.

[Troublemaker]

You are correct in that February schedule being weak, but that won't help our seeding very much. We need some wins against the top teams to get that #1 or #2 seed.

Agreed, but I think Duvall was commenting on the part where a 1-2 record in the next 3 games leads to a 6-8 seed. If we go 1-2 in the next three, I would wager anything Duke still ends up higher than a 6 seed with our second-half schedule. Let's hope the discussion is moot, though.

[Troublemaker]

I would rather have a lesser recorder, but still be developing than having a better recorder and being “Status Quo”

Disagree. I would like to sound good for my 4th-grade ensemble.

[JasonEvans]

One down and two (toughest) ones to go. Truly impressive win though. We've been stomping people lately. Of course, the road is a whole different story. I doubt we can shoot worse at Pitt than we did in Cameron yesterday.

-Jason "win these next two, and we are big time back in the naty conversation" Evans

[NYBri]

FSU win - check
Pitt Monday - next game. Stay focused.
Anything beyond that - not applicable.

[Clay Feet POF]

Disagree. I would like to sound good for my 4th-grade ensemble.

Ooops! Double Ooops