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View Full Version : Writing UNC's obituary... too soon



JasonEvans
01-22-2014, 08:18 AM
Folks, there is a lot of gloating going on around here and I just want to point out that the Heels next 5 games are:


Home vs. Clemson
At Ga Tech
Home vs. NCSU
Home vs Maryland
At Notre Dame

That is 5 very, very winnable games. I would expect Carolina to be the favorite in every one of those except perhaps the game at Notre Dame. While we may be chuckling about a 1-4 ACC record, I would not be even remotely surprised to see the Heels hosting Duke on 2/12 with a fairly respectable ACC record of 5-5 and a ton of momentum.

-Jason "I just want us to be careful and not be wearing egg on our faces should the Heels somehow figure out how to turn it around a bit" Evans

PSurprise
01-22-2014, 08:21 AM
Way to ruin our fun!! :)

We'll get to that IF and when it happens. In the meantime, Muahahahahahahahahahahhah, Carolina! GTH!

roywhite
01-22-2014, 08:31 AM
I get the point.

However, after following their season and watching games, I believe they have a fatal flaw. They don't shoot well. At all.

Hard to see how they can succeed.

FerryFor50
01-22-2014, 08:47 AM
Folks, there is a lot of gloating going on around here and I just want to point out that the Heels next 5 games are:


Home vs. Clemson
At Ga Tech
Home vs. NCSU
Home vs Maryland
At Notre Dame

That is 5 very, very winnable games. I would expect Carolina to be the favorite in every one of those except perhaps the game at Notre Dame. While we may be chuckling about a 1-4 ACC record, I would not be even remotely surprised to see the Heels hosting Duke on 2/12 with a fairly respectable ACC record of 5-5 and a ton of momentum.

-Jason "I just want us to be careful and not be wearing egg on our faces should the Heels somehow figure out how to turn it around a bit" Evans

Wake Forest, Belmont, Texas, Miami and UAB were also very winnable games...

MCFinARL
01-22-2014, 08:53 AM
Wake Forest, Belmont, Texas, Miami and UAB were also very winnable games...

True--still, Jason makes an excellent point. It's a long season, and a lot could happen. No point tempting fate.

ChillinDuke
01-22-2014, 09:06 AM
Yeah, I see your point.

I tend to lean toward RoyWhite's view though. This team can't shoot a lick. Not even from the foul line. How are they going to win with any consistency?

I do see what you mean that these next few games for them are clearly "very, very winnable" and they will likely be favored in each - but that's probably more a function of home court and less a function of their actually being a higher quality team. They just beat KenPom's #178 Boston College (5-14; 1-5 with the 1 being at 8-9; 1-4 VaTech) by 11 at home. Hardly an impressive showing.

And then they got beaten easily by 15 (outscored in both halves) at UVA, KenPom's #14 team. So clearly, an argument can be made that UNC is somewhere #14 and #178. Hardly a narrow range to peg them, I know. But given they've lost at home to #61 Miami and on the road at #86 Wake Forest, and given Clemson falls in at #44, Ga Tech at #134, NC State at #94, Maryland at #67, and ND at #72 (although, admittedly trending down), I'd peg the over/under for UNC wins as low as 2.5.

OK, 2.5 maybe wearing Duke blue glasses. But I think over/under 3 wins is very reasonable and would probably get even money.

So in summary, 4-1 is very doable for UNC, yes. But so is 2-3. And both possibilities are worth discussing.

- Chillin

77devil
01-22-2014, 09:15 AM
Wake Forest, Belmont, Texas, Miami and UAB were also very winnable games...

And Michigan State, Kentucky, and Louisville are games they were expected to lose. The Heel are enigmatic although their current momentum is clearly downward. Which team will show up over the next five games? But as others wrote, the Heels are terrible shooters which will likely haunt them particularly on the road.

Bob Green
01-22-2014, 09:26 AM
Folks, there is a lot of gloating going on around here...

-Jason "I just want us to be careful and not be wearing egg on our faces should the Heels somehow figure out how to turn it around a bit" Evans

I agree Jason, but is a DBR tradition as I pointed out on 11-18-2013:


Ah, it's the annual "Stick a fork in Carolina, they're done" thread on DBR. We got this one going early this season. If one only read DBR, you would think Carolina had been to 14 straight NITs.

It's early, perhaps they will stink all year, but I bet they figure it out by January. The loss to Belmont is one game so I'll contain my enthusiasm for now. Perhaps I am in the minority, but I enjoy watching Duke win a lot more than watching Carolina lose.

jv001
01-22-2014, 09:39 AM
Those next 5 games are winnable for the Tar Heels and I don't think they play Syracuse this season. So they aren't dead yet even though I see the buzzards circling chapel hell. GoDuke!

94duke
01-22-2014, 09:44 AM
Those next 5 games are winnable for the Tar Heels and I don't think they play Syracuse [again] this season. So they aren't dead yet even though I see the buzzards circling chapel hell. GoDuke!

I think you meant "again," since they played Jan 11.

jv001
01-22-2014, 09:47 AM
I think you meant "again," since they played Jan 11.

No. I just forgot about that game. Memory not as good as it used to be. GoDuke!

mgtr
01-22-2014, 09:48 AM
I have never understood why threads which revel in UNC's problems are on this forum, as opposed to the off-topic forum.

Matches
01-22-2014, 09:53 AM
The Holes have struggled for about a month now, and it's coincided with their best player (Paige) shooting poorly. Some of that is because defenses are paying more attention to him given his performances early in the season, and I expect they will continue to do so.

It's not unrealistic, despite that, to expect that Paige won't continue to shoot as poorly as he has for the last month. It seems likely that if Paige plays better, UNC will play better. They are an offensively-challenged team, and he is their best pure scorer.

UNC is a flawed team but not an untalented one. Given their relatively soft schedule they really shouldn't be worse than 10-8 or 9-9 in ACC play. They need to go at least 4-1 over these next five games, though. It's very do-able, and if they don't do it they can pretty much forget about the NCAAT.

FerryFor50
01-22-2014, 09:56 AM
I have never understood why threads which revel in UNC's problems are on this forum, as opposed to the off-topic forum.

Because Duke and UNC basketball, like yin and yang, like Batman and the Joker, are forever intertwined.

OldPhiKap
01-22-2014, 10:08 AM
So in summary, 4-1 is very doable for UNC, yes. But so is 2-3. And both possibilities are worth discussing.

- Chillin

Exactly. Jason is right -- and history has plenty of examples of this -- Carolina is not dead until someone puts the stake through the heart.

But having said that -- here are stats from an IC poster that I copied on another thread:


Posted: Today 2:07 PM
RE: UNC worst 3 Point Shooting Team in Nation
Read'em and weep

UNC ACC Stats

13th FG%
14th FT%
11th FT Attempts
Last 3FG%
12th Turnovers Per Game
10th Blocks Per Game
15th Fouls Per Game
14th Offensive Efficiency
Last Effective FG%
Last True Shooting %
13th FT Rate
14th 3FG Point Distribution Rate
14th Opponents FT Attempts
Last Opponents Assist Per Game
12th Opponents A/TO Ratio
13th Opponents Turnovers Per Game
13th Opponents Blocks Per Game
Reply | Quote.

Where does the improvement come from? Unless someone else gets hot from outside, consistently, where does this team look to improve?

And how does Roy get them there? Have them run more friggin' wind sprints? Yeah, that worked.

Carolina has talent, and has a coach who has seen a lot. It will take some extraordinary coaching to pull this year out. Roy is certainly capable of it, but he is also capable of losing this team too.

Odd, mercurial and wildly erratic. Carolina basketball, 2014.

nocilla
01-22-2014, 10:12 AM
I would also like to add that in that same stretch Duke will be playing @Miami, @Pitt, @Cuse, @BC. Along with FSU and WF at home. Personally I think we may only lose one of those, but it certainly isn't unrealistic to lose 3 or 4 of them. What will the discussion be like if we are both sitting at 5 losses on Feb 12?

Bob Green
01-22-2014, 10:16 AM
Several entertaining threads over at IC for those inclined to visit. Here is a good quote:


I keep reading its recruiting.. Unc has a ton of top 100 players.. Some fans act as if unc is landing a roster full of 2-3 star kids.. Blaming it on recruiting just proves the point that several say Roy needs top ten upperclassmen to win.

I think SEXYWALDO reads the DBR. :cool:

CameronBlue
01-22-2014, 10:16 AM
I have never understood why threads which revel in UNC's problems are on this forum, as opposed to the off-topic forum.

I think you've touched upon an existentialistic conundrum that would take years of expensive therapy to figure out. Does anybody really have time for the tears?

OldPhiKap
01-22-2014, 10:18 AM
I have never understood why threads which revel in UNC's problems are on this forum, as opposed to the off-topic forum.

Perhaps it is a comment on the duality of man. You know, the whole Jungian thing.

MCFinARL
01-22-2014, 10:48 AM
Because Duke and UNC basketball, like yin and yang, like Batman and the Joker, are forever intertwined.

Like Wile E. Coyote and Roadrunner. Like Tweety and Sylvester. Or like Bugs Bunny and Elmer Fudd. Come to think of it, Roy looks a little like Elmer Fudd.

MCFinARL
01-22-2014, 10:50 AM
Perhaps it is a comment on the duality of man. You know, the whole Jungian thing.

Can't spork you--always glad to see someone elevating the level of discourse, even as I'm doing my best to lower it. ;)

roywhite
01-22-2014, 10:51 AM
Perhaps it is a comment on the duality of man. You know, the whole Jungian thing.

Jungian? Is that some backcourt guy that Pitt brought in?
Or a JuCo guy who's trying to get eligible at VaTech?

Man, this 15-team conference; just can't keep track of all the personnel. :o

hurleyfor3
01-22-2014, 10:54 AM
Perhaps it is a comment on the duality of man. You know, the whole Jungian thing.

Dude, welcome to the Jungle. We got fun and games.

OldPhiKap
01-22-2014, 10:55 AM
Jungian? Is that some backcourt guy that Pitt brought in?
Or a JuCo guy who's trying to get eligible at VaTech?

Man, this 15-team conference; just can't keep track of all the personnel. :o

Nah. Philosophers prefer soccer:

http://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=youtube+philosopher+football&FORM=VIRE4#view=detail&mid=7206CC5CA2364D27D8517206CC5CA2364D27D851

Kfanarmy
01-22-2014, 10:59 AM
Exactly. Jason is right -- and history has plenty of examples of this -- Carolina is not dead until someone puts the stake through the heart.

But having said that -- here are stats from an IC poster that I copied on another thread:



Where does the improvement come from?. If I were the UNC coach, given the physical stature of his team and their shooting problems, I'd focus all their energy on the interior: Get in the paint, shoot in close, get O rebounds; Run on O when you have the chance; work hard to the rim every time.

brevity
01-22-2014, 11:11 AM
Sorry, Jason, but this game is over.

3815

roywhite
01-22-2014, 11:36 AM
Piece by Mark Thompson of Greensboro News & Record:
Analysis: North Carolina needs wins in four-game stretch
(http://www.journalnow.com/sports/colleges/basketball/article_826404bd-b285-5dce-8ee2-240e8775b46a.html)


Im not throwing my kids under the bus, Williams said. Ive got to get them to play harder. Ive got to get them to play with a greater sense of urgency. Its not just effort. Our kids are trying, but its got to be a greater sense of urgency.

Later in the same piece:

But if you give me a chance to start in front of somebody, Im going to play my butt off and try to make sure that I stay there, Williams said. And that has not happened yet, whether it was Kennedy (Meeks) for two games, Brice (Johnson) for two games (or) Leslie (McDonald) for two games.



Hmmm....that seems pretty direct criticism of players by name. I guess it would be dadgum picky to call that throwing them under the bus?

77devil
01-22-2014, 11:46 AM
Piece by Mark Thompson of Greensboro News & Record:
Analysis: North Carolina needs wins in four-game stretch
(http://www.journalnow.com/sports/colleges/basketball/article_826404bd-b285-5dce-8ee2-240e8775b46a.html)



Later in the same piece:


Hmmm....that seems pretty direct criticism of players by name. I guess it would be dadgum picky to call that throwing them under the bus?

Ok Roy, I'll give you the bus but surely you threw them under a car.

chaosmage
01-22-2014, 11:49 AM
Like Wile E. Coyote and Roadrunner. Like Tweety and Sylvester. Or like Bugs Bunny and Elmer Fudd. Come to think of it, Roy looks a little like Elmer Fudd.

You know, every now and again those guys (so Elmer was really old) caught their target. I just don't think Roy can get it this year. He won't change his style and adapt. He did last year, but it was very late. He might figure it out, but I'm not sure.

Is it possible that Roy has surrounded himself with assistants who won't question his style or that they believe in "Carolina basketball" that they refuse to alter their style for the personnel?

Thoughts for digestion.

OldPhiKap
01-22-2014, 11:53 AM
"I'm not gonna throw my kids under the bus. Sure, they don't play as hard as they can or with any urgency. Sure, they are not motivated by starting or getting more minutes. I guess I need to find a way to get them to give as much of a @#$# about Carolina as I do."

What a maroon. Maybe run them at half-time.

Reilly
01-22-2014, 12:00 PM
... Odd, mercurial and wildly erratic. Carolina basketball, 2014.

Also describes ...
... their driving on paved roads
... their payment of parking fines
... their class attendance
... their obeyance of drug laws
... Roy's sense of self-worth
... (insert name here)'s outside shooting ability

OldPhiKap
01-22-2014, 12:12 PM
Also describes ...
... their driving on paved roads
... their payment of parking fines
... their class attendance
... their obeyance of drug laws
... Roy's sense of self-worth
... (insert name here)'s outside shooting ability

Are you suggesting that it is The New Carolina Way?

I think you hit it.

UrinalCake
01-22-2014, 01:27 PM
One interesting theory I read on IC is that earlier in the season while PJ was suspended the team played with more of a sense of purpose and had an "us against the world" mentality. They played like if they could just hold down the fort until PJ come back then they could make a serious late run. But then once it became known that PJ wasn't coming back, they all sort of gave up on the season, including Roy.

I think that accounts for part of it, the rest being that other teams have simply learned to focus on stopping Paige and pack it in inside since the Heels can't shoot at all.

moonpie23
01-22-2014, 01:40 PM
unc can NOT be trusted to stay downtoo many times we've counted them out, only to have them turn it on at the end and burn us


i'm keeping the smack in the box till after the game...

devildeac
01-22-2014, 03:16 PM
If ol roy and the cheaters win 3-4 of those games, he might well be in the dadgum Valentine spirit by that time.

weezie
01-22-2014, 08:42 PM
OK, ok, I understand. Maybe "some" of us be-ith a tad too excited. Let's just go crush them under our sneakers and put them out of their misery as a public service.

OldPhiKap
01-22-2014, 08:47 PM
OK, ok, I understand. Maybe "some" of us be-ith a tad too excited. Let's just go crush them under our sneakers and put them out of their misery as a public service.

I love a woman with a plan.

(And no, I was not looking down your blouse . . . .)

ricks68
01-22-2014, 09:00 PM
I love a woman with a plan.

(And no, I was not looking down your blouse . . . .)

(What????)

ricks

OldPhiKap
01-22-2014, 09:06 PM
(What????)

ricks

Inside joke on chat.

Carolina is struggling, but Clemson looked pretty bad on the road last night. Something has to give. Hope Clemson wins, but not betting on it.

devildeac
01-22-2014, 09:14 PM
Inside joke on chat.

Carolina is struggling, but Clemson looked pretty bad on the road last night. Something has to give. Hope Clemson wins, but not betting on it.

Wrong chat. I thought that was windsor;).

And, to keep on topic, I like the way we weathered their (tropical) storm when they cut it from 19 to 12.

OldPhiKap
01-22-2014, 09:19 PM
Wrong chat. I thought that was windsor;).

And, to keep on topic, I like the way we weathered their (tropical) storm when they cut it from 19 to 12.

Double apologies if I got the first part wrong.

Double agree O&B the second point. Hurricane downgraded, indeed.

richardjackson199
01-22-2014, 09:19 PM
Folks, there is a lot of gloating going on around here and I just want to point out that the Heels next 5 games are:


Home vs. Clemson
At Ga Tech
Home vs. NCSU
Home vs Maryland
At Notre Dame

That is 5 very, very winnable games. I would expect Carolina to be the favorite in every one of those except perhaps the game at Notre Dame. While we may be chuckling about a 1-4 ACC record, I would not be even remotely surprised to see the Heels hosting Duke on 2/12 with a fairly respectable ACC record of 5-5 and a ton of momentum.

-Jason "I just want us to be careful and not be wearing egg on our faces should the Heels somehow figure out how to turn it around a bit" Evans

Jason is absolutely right. I predicted before conference play began that UNC will finish in the ACC top 3 and I stand by it. They've had a pretty tough conference schedule so far - at Cuse, at UVA, Wake is tough at home, and home vs Miami was bad loss (but Larranaga can coach!). (yes, like the early upset alert threads, this is my reverse psychology attempt to be WRONG and have UNC finish in bottom 3. Shhh - just keep it up holes. In honor of our illustrious moderator who started this thread...
Richard "a loss at home to Clemson, ending the streak, could Devastate this team's (coach's) psyche and season, Go Tigers!" Jackson

throatybeard
01-22-2014, 09:21 PM
I have never understood why threads which revel in UNC's problems are on this forum, as opposed to the off-topic forum.

It's very simple. All college sports that Duke University plays (MBB, WBB, FB, BSB, MLAX, WLAX, Fencing, Golf, Tennis, others) are on-topic, as are other forms of basketball (NBA, international basketball).

A few things that aren't sports are also on topic if they're directly related to Duke University sports somehow, like things related to event attendance, such as all the lousy food you can get somewhere near wherever the ACCT is being held. For some silly reason that probably no one can remember, all barbecue is also on-topic. I suppose it goes in the event-attendance clause.

Everything else is off topic.

I don't think we follow this terribly rigidly--at least I hope we're not that anal. Sometimes somebody dies and they're on the EK board (eg Bill Friday recently, Cavlaw less recently), which is fine. I generally like to see threads that involve Duke and the community on the EK board, and I have moved them from OT so they'll get more eyeballs. I don't think there ever was a thread about Honey's going out of business. I could see that on either board. I think there was a long Eve Carson-related thread on the EK board and we never moved it.

At any rate, UNC BB is squarely between the goalposts for the EK board, unless the NCAA or the Justice Department or someone shuts them down.

richardjackson199
01-22-2014, 09:49 PM
(and while I'm at it with the reverse-psycho-jinx...) Arizona will go undefeated this season. They don't seem like world beaters, but that team has no weakness and so much moxy. First full undefeated season since '76. I'm calling it.
(prove me wrong oh fate)

(back to topic - 9F9F9F!)

oldnavy
01-23-2014, 05:37 AM
I haven't seen anything that UNC has done that makes me believe they will somehow catch fire.

Like others have pointed out, they cannot shoot. Their best offense is a missed shot, but even then they are having trouble putting the ball in the hoop after offensive rebounds.

They do not guard the perimeter well at all. With good ball movement teams can get very open looks.

They haven't fallen off the mountain, but they are hanging on with just one hand at this point.

I just hope Roy keeps motivating them by telling the media how dadgum good PJ was in practice!!

mgtr
01-23-2014, 08:07 AM
It's very simple. All college sports that Duke University plays (MBB, WBB, FB, BSB, MLAX, WLAX, Fencing, Golf, Tennis, others) are on-topic, as are other forms of basketball (NBA, international basketball).

A few things that aren't sports are also on topic if they're directly related to Duke University sports somehow, like things related to event attendance, such as all the lousy food you can get somewhere near wherever the ACCT is being held. For some silly reason that probably no one can remember, all barbecue is also on-topic. I suppose it goes in the event-attendance clause.

Everything else is off topic.

I don't think we follow this terribly rigidly--at least I hope we're not that anal. Sometimes somebody dies and they're on the EK board (eg Bill Friday recently, Cavlaw less recently), which is fine. I generally like to see threads that involve Duke and the community on the EK board, and I have moved them from OT so they'll get more eyeballs. I don't think there ever was a thread about Honey's going out of business. I could see that on either board. I think there was a long Eve Carson-related thread on the EK board and we never moved it.

At any rate, UNC BB is squarely between the goalposts for the EK board, unless the NCAA or the Justice Department or someone shuts them down.

Thanks for the lucid and complete clarification. I understand now what is where, when. Or something like that.

weezie
01-23-2014, 08:30 AM
And we're not really reveling....it's more like those guys on "Lost" the one wearing black and the other wearing white. Kind of brothers (ugh, so maybe not that close, more like neighbors on the same street) intent on throttling each other but also in the mood for the game with the stones overlooking the what, ocean, uh, yeah, that's more like it.
But not really, so, ok, moving along...

CameronBlue
01-23-2014, 08:46 AM
I may be morbidly captivated by UNC's long, slow vivisection in the press over its many scandals (patient dead yet? Nope, heh heh) but reveling in the basketball team's struggles on the hardwood? That would be cruel.

alteran
01-23-2014, 09:19 AM
Folks, there is a lot of gloating going on around here and I just want to point out that the Heels next 5 games are:

Home vs. Clemson
At Ga Tech
Home vs. NCSU
Home vs Maryland
At Notre Dame

That is 5 very, very winnable games. I would expect Carolina to be the favorite in every one of those except perhaps the game at Notre Dame. While we may be chuckling about a 1-4 ACC record, I would not be even remotely surprised to see the Heels hosting Duke on 2/12 with a fairly respectable ACC record of 5-5 and a ton of momentum.

-Jason "I just want us to be careful and not be wearing egg on our faces should the Heels somehow figure out how to turn it around a bit" Evans

Agreed.

But we've got to enjoy these UNC meltdowns to the fullest. They don't happen very often.

Enjoy the little things.

alteran
01-23-2014, 09:28 AM
Also describes ...
... their driving on paved roads
... their payment of parking fines
... their class attendance
... their obeyance of drug laws
... Roy's sense of self-worth
... (insert name here)'s outside shooting ability


Are you suggesting that it is The New Carolina Way?

I think you hit it.

No... we're suggesting that this has ALWAYS been The Carolina Way.

allenmurray
01-23-2014, 09:54 AM
It's very simple. All college sports that Duke University plays (MBB, WBB, FB, BSB, MLAX, WLAX, Fencing, Golf, Tennis, others) are on-topic, as are other forms of basketball (NBA, international basketball).

A few things that aren't sports are also on topic if they're directly related to Duke University sports somehow, like things related to event attendance, such as all the lousy food you can get somewhere near wherever the ACCT is being held. For some silly reason that probably no one can remember, all barbecue is also on-topic. I suppose it goes in the event-attendance clause.

Everything else is off topic.

I don't think we follow this terribly rigidly--at least I hope we're not that anal. Sometimes somebody dies and they're on the EK board (eg Bill Friday recently, Cavlaw less recently), which is fine. I generally like to see threads that involve Duke and the community on the EK board, and I have moved them from OT so they'll get more eyeballs. I don't think there ever was a thread about Honey's going out of business. I could see that on either board. I think there was a long Eve Carson-related thread on the EK board and we never moved it.

At any rate, UNC BB is squarely between the goalposts for the EK board, unless the NCAA or the Justice Department or someone shuts them down.

Not only are discussions of BBQ always on-topic, but the thread is always titled Duke vs. Kentucky.