pfrduke
01-20-2014, 10:01 AM
We're three weeks into conference play and the conference has comfortably stratified into the haves and the have nots. 7 ACC teams are over .500 in conference play, and 6 of the ACC's 7 likely tournament teams (as of now) come from that group. The only one in the top half likely to end up on the outside looking in is Maryland; from the bottom half, Carolina is still a favorite to pick up a tourney berth (they have both the name on the front of the jersey and the single best collection of non-conference wins in the country). This week's slate predominantly matches up the top against the bottom - the only matchups between teams currently above .500 are Pitt-Clemson on Tuesday, Pitt-Maryland on Saturday, and Duke-FSU on Saturday. The top needs to continue to hold serve against the bottom - right now, Duke (to Notre Dame) is the only +.500 team to lose to a current sub-.500 team.
Monday has Virginia playing host to UNC. I'm not sure I can recall a game between the two where Virginia was a more heavy favorite - the Cavs are giving 7 in the consensus betting lines and I think most neutral observers expect Virginia to win. Defenses that require disciplined offenses to beat them have not been a good matchup for the Heels so far this season and UNC should struggle to score against a Virginia team that packs the paint. Carolina may need to get Paige and McDonald free from the outside to stay competitive. Maryland begins its Tobacco Road farewell tour (the Terps play at State, UNC, and Duke without any return visits) with a trip to NC State. State is likely to be marginally tougher on its home court, but (as we all saw Saturday), this is not a very good basketball team, particularly outside of TJ Warren.
[15]Virginia hosts [40]North Carolina (7, ESPN)
[103]NC State hosts [64]Maryland (9, ESPNU)
Tuesday starts a brutal road test for the Clemson Tigers with a trip to Pitt (followed by road games against UNC and FSU). The Panthers looked every bit the league title contender in the matchup against Syracuse this weekend. Expect a slow paced, low scoring, defensive struggle. In other action, FSU hosts Notre Dame and Boston College hosts Georgia Tech. For some reason, ESPN deemed the latter game worthy of a national television broadcast.
[6]Pittsburgh hosts [32]Clemson (8, ESPN3)
[18]Florida State hosts [84]Notre Dame (8, ESPN3)
[159]Boston College hosts [156]Georgia Tech (9, ESPNU)
Wednesday sends Duke to Miami looking both for its first road win and to avenge last year's 27-point drubbing. Virginia Tech plays host to Wake. There's a scenario in which Wake gets hot and goes on a 4-game winning streak to end the month (they follow the trip to Blacksburg with 3 in a row at home, although one of those is against Syracuse) and gets itself into the at large conversation, but that scenario depends upon not losing the initial game to a bad Virginia Tech team on the road. Given Jeff Bzdelik's road performance as the Deacs head coach, let's just say I'm not holding my breath.
[60]Miami hosts [20]Duke (7:30, ESPN2)
[168]Virginia Tech hosts [87]Wake Forest (7, ESPN3)
Thursday and Friday are dark.
Saturday is headlined by Duke-Florida State. The Devils have had precisely no trouble scoring in Cameron, even against good defensive teams (hi Virginia), but Florida State has played the Devils tough in recent history and, as is par for the course with a Leonard Hamilton team, they throw a lot of long, athletic bodies at you that interfere with passing lanes, change shooting angles, and just generally cause trouble. By the same token, FSU is extremely vulnerable to turnovers on offense and the new high pace pressing style that Duke has been running could wreak havoc in FSU's backcourt. In other action, Syracuse gets its first even semi-difficult road game, taking on a Miami team that gave it a close contest in the Carrier Dome. Pitt also hits the road, traveling to Maryland. The Panthers are a better team and should win, but road games are tricky business. Finally, Virginia gets a break from a somewhat rough stretch of games with the Hokies coming to town, and Wake Forest hosts Notre Dame.
[20]Duke hosts [18]Florida State (12, ESPN)
[60]Miami hosts [2]Syracuse (1, CBS)
[87]Wake Forest hosts [84]Notre Dame (3, ESPN3)
[15]Virginia hosts [168]Virginia Tech (3, ESPN3)
[64]Maryland hosts [6]Pittsburgh (6, ESPN2)
Sunday offers what almost certainly will be false hope. The Heels have been struggling (particularly scoring against good defenses). The Tigers have been playing well. The "this could be the year" thought lurks. But somethings, like death and taxes, are inevitable, and Clemson losing in Chapel Hill is one of those things. At least it's a fun Sunday night ACC game, for once.
[103]NC State hosts [156]Georgia Tech (1, ESPN3)
[40]North Carolina hosts [32]Clemson (6, ESPNU)
ACC Non-Conference Record: 138-53
ACC Record vs. BCS: 29-33
Monday has Virginia playing host to UNC. I'm not sure I can recall a game between the two where Virginia was a more heavy favorite - the Cavs are giving 7 in the consensus betting lines and I think most neutral observers expect Virginia to win. Defenses that require disciplined offenses to beat them have not been a good matchup for the Heels so far this season and UNC should struggle to score against a Virginia team that packs the paint. Carolina may need to get Paige and McDonald free from the outside to stay competitive. Maryland begins its Tobacco Road farewell tour (the Terps play at State, UNC, and Duke without any return visits) with a trip to NC State. State is likely to be marginally tougher on its home court, but (as we all saw Saturday), this is not a very good basketball team, particularly outside of TJ Warren.
[15]Virginia hosts [40]North Carolina (7, ESPN)
[103]NC State hosts [64]Maryland (9, ESPNU)
Tuesday starts a brutal road test for the Clemson Tigers with a trip to Pitt (followed by road games against UNC and FSU). The Panthers looked every bit the league title contender in the matchup against Syracuse this weekend. Expect a slow paced, low scoring, defensive struggle. In other action, FSU hosts Notre Dame and Boston College hosts Georgia Tech. For some reason, ESPN deemed the latter game worthy of a national television broadcast.
[6]Pittsburgh hosts [32]Clemson (8, ESPN3)
[18]Florida State hosts [84]Notre Dame (8, ESPN3)
[159]Boston College hosts [156]Georgia Tech (9, ESPNU)
Wednesday sends Duke to Miami looking both for its first road win and to avenge last year's 27-point drubbing. Virginia Tech plays host to Wake. There's a scenario in which Wake gets hot and goes on a 4-game winning streak to end the month (they follow the trip to Blacksburg with 3 in a row at home, although one of those is against Syracuse) and gets itself into the at large conversation, but that scenario depends upon not losing the initial game to a bad Virginia Tech team on the road. Given Jeff Bzdelik's road performance as the Deacs head coach, let's just say I'm not holding my breath.
[60]Miami hosts [20]Duke (7:30, ESPN2)
[168]Virginia Tech hosts [87]Wake Forest (7, ESPN3)
Thursday and Friday are dark.
Saturday is headlined by Duke-Florida State. The Devils have had precisely no trouble scoring in Cameron, even against good defensive teams (hi Virginia), but Florida State has played the Devils tough in recent history and, as is par for the course with a Leonard Hamilton team, they throw a lot of long, athletic bodies at you that interfere with passing lanes, change shooting angles, and just generally cause trouble. By the same token, FSU is extremely vulnerable to turnovers on offense and the new high pace pressing style that Duke has been running could wreak havoc in FSU's backcourt. In other action, Syracuse gets its first even semi-difficult road game, taking on a Miami team that gave it a close contest in the Carrier Dome. Pitt also hits the road, traveling to Maryland. The Panthers are a better team and should win, but road games are tricky business. Finally, Virginia gets a break from a somewhat rough stretch of games with the Hokies coming to town, and Wake Forest hosts Notre Dame.
[20]Duke hosts [18]Florida State (12, ESPN)
[60]Miami hosts [2]Syracuse (1, CBS)
[87]Wake Forest hosts [84]Notre Dame (3, ESPN3)
[15]Virginia hosts [168]Virginia Tech (3, ESPN3)
[64]Maryland hosts [6]Pittsburgh (6, ESPN2)
Sunday offers what almost certainly will be false hope. The Heels have been struggling (particularly scoring against good defenses). The Tigers have been playing well. The "this could be the year" thought lurks. But somethings, like death and taxes, are inevitable, and Clemson losing in Chapel Hill is one of those things. At least it's a fun Sunday night ACC game, for once.
[103]NC State hosts [156]Georgia Tech (1, ESPN3)
[40]North Carolina hosts [32]Clemson (6, ESPNU)
ACC Non-Conference Record: 138-53
ACC Record vs. BCS: 29-33