Really good read on Parker's struggles

[JasonEvans]

Nice analysis here from NBCSports.com (http://collegebasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/01/16/film-study-whats-behind-jabari-parkers-recent-slump/).


Opponents are defending him with bigger, more athletic opponents. Virginia used Akil Mitchell on him. Notre Dame used Zach Auguste and Austin Burgett. Georgia Tech put Kammeon Holsey on him. His best game in ACC play came when he was guarded by 6-foot-7, 215 lb freshman Jaron Blossomgame at Clemson. As a result, when Parker does get his post touches, they come farther away from the rim and he has a tendency to simply face-up and shoot over the defender. On the perimeter, since he’s not getting all the way to the rim as easily as before, they are able to challenge those perimeter jumpers more easily thanks to their size and length.

The article goes on to pretty brutally rip Parker's D. It also suggests that Duke is not doing a lot, in terms of our offensive sets, to help Parker out of his slump.

-Jason "big break this week from Monday - Saturday -- I hope it helps re-energize Jabari" Evans

[Kedsy]

Nice analysis here from NBCSports.com (http://collegebasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/01/16/film-study-whats-behind-jabari-parkers-recent-slump/).



The article goes on to pretty brutally rip Parker's D. It also suggests that Duke is not doing a lot, in terms of our offensive sets, to help Parker out of his slump.

-Jason "big break this week from Monday - Saturday -- I hope it helps re-energize Jabari" Evans

Nothing that we haven't been saying for some time now. Hopefully Jabari snaps out of it soon.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Nothing that we haven't been saying for some time now. Hopefully Jabari snaps out of it soon.

The weight thing strikes me as odd. Players often, if not always, are overweight at the beginning of the season (Shaq being the best example). If anything, they lose weight and get in better shape as the season progresses. I find it hard to believe that Jabari is GAINING weight this year. He may be exhausted, but that is different from gaining weight.

Also, they closes the Dillo. It seems really difficult to gain weight now at Duke (unless you're on the Daniel Ewing Diet. What is this diet you ask? It's eating McD's twice a day. But Ewing was always in shape. McD's should put him in a commercial)

[Trinity09]

I think Jabari's shot selection has been pretty poor all season. This is a purely anecdotal observation, of course, and I'd love to see a series of shot charts that either proves or disproves it. From day one, he's taken a lot of high degree-of-difficulty shots--contested threes, stepbacks, turnarounds, etc. He started the year off so scorchingly hot that he was bound to regress a bit at some point. With very few exceptions, 50%+ from deep is unsustainable. Yeah, he's not getting to the rim as frequently as he did early on, but IMO his slump is mostly a function of shots that fell earlier in the season simply not falling anymore.

[daveyro]

Trying to see the glass as half full, we all know how good JP is and will become. Given his oft discussed shortcomings, I feel we will see him on the team next year. No Kyrie here. Another year (at least) in the program will make him the player NBA scouts are looking for.

[Kedsy]

Trying to see the glass as half full, we all know how good JP is and will become. Given his oft discussed shortcomings, I feel we will see him on the team next year. No Kyrie here. Another year (at least) in the program will make him the player NBA scouts are looking for.

Unlikely. He's still top 3 in every mock draft I've seen.

[arnie]

I think Jabari's shot selection has been pretty poor all season. This is a purely anecdotal observation, of course, and I'd love to see a series of shot charts that either proves or disproves it. From day one, he's taken a lot of high degree-of-difficulty shots--contested threes, stepbacks, turnarounds, etc. He started the year off so scorchingly hot that he was bound to regress a bit at some point. With very few exceptions, 50%+ from deep is unsustainable. Yeah, he's not getting to the rim as frequently as he did early on, but IMO his slump is mostly a function of shots that fell earlier in the season simply not falling anymore.

No doubt about this - he takes a lot of 3s and loves those stepbacks from at least 15-feet. As you said, he made an incredible % early which is likely why he keeps taking them. I'd like to see the staff convince him to layoff the 3 unless he's wide open and the shot is in the flow. Focus on feeding him the ball closer to the basket - and if he can drive, great!

[CDu]

Trying to see the glass as half full, we all know how good JP is and will become. Given his oft discussed shortcomings, I feel we will see him on the team next year. No Kyrie here. Another year (at least) in the program will make him the player NBA scouts are looking for.

I agree with Kedsy on this. I would put the probability of Parker playing for Duke next season to be virtually 0%. He's shown enough to be a top-3 pick in this year's draft. I don't know that there is much more he could do to improve his draft stock by coming back.

[Troublemaker]

Opponents are defending him with bigger, more athletic opponents. Virginia used Akil Mitchell on him. Notre Dame used Zach Auguste and Austin Burgett. Georgia Tech put Kammeon Holsey on him. His best game in ACC play came when he was guarded by 6-foot-7, 215 lb freshman Jaron Blossomgame at Clemson.

There's no way Mitchell, Auguste, or Holsey could do anything to slow down Jabari when he's right. They're not even athletic. Burgett and Blossomgame do strike me as athletic guys who could do a decent job. Still, a top 3 pick in a strong draft isn't going to struggle this much against big, athletic guys. There's a large mental aspect to this slump.

[moonpie23]

so, the elephant in the room is…..what's this doing to his draft stock? could he stay another year?

[Troublemaker]

so, the elephant in the room is…..what's this doing to his draft stock? could he stay another year?

Nope. Draft stock is fine. He would probably have to struggle for five or six more games before GMs worry. I think he breaks his slump Saturday.

[devildeac]

Nope. Draft stock is fine. He would probably have to struggle for five or six more games before GMs worry. I think he breaks his slump Saturday.

Whaddaya think, 23/10?

;)

[theschwartz]

so, the elephant in the room is…..what's this doing to his draft stock? could he stay another year?

I'm not sure what he WILL do. But his struggles indicate to me that he SHOULD come out after this season, especially as flaws to his game become apparent. GMs seem much more likely to excuse those flaws in a freshman--especially his struggles on D since most college players have to learn to play pro-style D anyway--but the microscope will be on him more as a sophomore and if he struggles next season, then those struggles will be amplified and you won't be able to shrug it off with the "Oh he's just a freshman" excuse. Look at Marcus Smart this season. I feel like he's under much more scrutiny this season compared to last. Granted that last year's draft was considerably weaker than the 2014 draft will be, but Smart will likely drop from a Top-2 pick last year to somewhere around #6-8 this year. He's not playing any worse than last season, but with greater exposure, whatever warts he does have are coming to the surface. Based on that logic only, I think Jabari should leave after this season. But believe me, I'd LOVE LOVE LOVE to see him come back for another season and dominate college basketball alongside Jahlil and Tyus and the rest of the gang.

[Troublemaker]

Whaddaya think, 23/10?

;)

Yes! And hopefully 3 blocked shots, 2 steals, 1 charge taken, 6 correct hedges, 5 correct switches, 1 foul :)

[ice-9]

Yes! And hopefully 3 blocked shots, 2 steals, 1 charge taken, 6 correct hedges, 5 correct switches, 1 foul :)

And block outs, don't forget blocking out!! :D

[JPtheGame]

I agree with Kedsy on this. I would put the probability of Parker playing for Duke next season to be virtually 0%. He's shown enough to be a top-3 pick in this year's draft. I don't know that there is much more he could do to improve his draft stock by coming back.

He didnt come to Duke to improve his draft stock. He could have gone on his Mormon mission and he would have come back as a top 3 pick. He'll be back next year but it will be for other reasons.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

He didnt come to Duke to improve his draft stock. He could have gone on his Mormon mission and he would have come back as a top 3 pick. He'll be back next year but it will be for other reasons.

I like your optimism, and I agree that Parker is an unconventional young man, but I would love to know what you are basing this on.

K could certainly improve Parker's game with additional coaching, and you are correct that his draft stock is unlikely to change (can't improve from top three) and was probably not the deciding factor in choosing Duke, but he can also get better while raking in piles of money in the NBA.

Are you just predicting he will stay? Or do you expect him to stay? I would love to see him in a Duke jersey next year, but absent insider information, I would assume he jumps.

Go Duke!

[Matches]

I hope the folks who keep predicting that Jabari will be back next year don't turn on him when he leaves.

Because he's going to leave. That has always been the plan, and a few weeks of less-than-stellar play isn't going to change that one iota. He's going to leave, and he's going to do so with the full support of K and the staff. When it happens I hope he'll not be talked down here or elsewhere for not fulfilling what is, in essence, a pipe dream.

[WillJ]

Good link, Jason. I'm once again pleased by the increase in statistical and analytical rigor that's been brought to basketball analysis....I love it.

[wilko]

I hope the folks who keep predicting that Jabari will be back next year don't turn on him when he leaves.

YA!! THIS!
No one can know whats in his head/heart - but the easiest way to avoid disappointment is to consider him gone.
Free yourself from stressing over it...

[dyedwab]

YA!! THIS!
No one can know whats in his head/heart - but the easiest way to avoid disappointment is to consider him gone.
Free yourself from stressing over it...

Coach K is on the record as basically expecting him to go. And I agree with the previous poster who said he should go, as his flaws will be under a microscope next year if he were to stay.

It's taken me years to adjust to Duke players leaving early - prior to Elton Brand, no one ever had, though many could have. So hope is not that they stay for years, but that they become integral parts of the program while they are here, and remain part of the extended Duke basketball family when they leave. All indications are that Jabari is exactly that kind of kind.

Back more on topic, I liked this piece. Good analysis, suggested what we need to look for to see improvement.

[TexHawk]

I'm not sure what he WILL do. But his struggles indicate to me that he SHOULD come out after this season, especially as flaws to his game become apparent. GMs seem much more likely to excuse those flaws in a freshman--especially his struggles on D since most college players have to learn to play pro-style D anyway--but the microscope will be on him more as a sophomore and if he struggles next season, then those struggles will be amplified and you won't be able to shrug it off with the "Oh he's just a freshman" excuse. Look at Marcus Smart this season. I feel like he's under much more scrutiny this season compared to last. Granted that last year's draft was considerably weaker than the 2014 draft will be, but Smart will likely drop from a Top-2 pick last year to somewhere around #6-8 this year. He's not playing any worse than last season, but with greater exposure, whatever warts he does have are coming to the surface. Based on that logic only, I think Jabari should leave after this season. But believe me, I'd LOVE LOVE LOVE to see him come back for another season and dominate college basketball alongside Jahlil and Tyus and the rest of the gang.

I think it very much depends on what the real and perceived flaws are in your game. With Smart, he is an outstanding player, but his obvious flaws have been shot selection and shooting percentage. Neither of those things improve with another year in college. An NBA team could hire a coach to sit with him 20 hours a day, 7 days a week, working on his form until his arm falls off. At OSU he gets 20 hours a week with his coaches.

This is being discussed a lot around Lawrence, because a couple NBA guys have said that they would like to see Joel Embiid play another year in college. Only because it's really really hard to build a postgame playing every other night in the NBA. Embiid could gain confidence by beating up on smaller players, trying new post moves and seeing them succeed. If he goes pro this summer, it's not like he'd be a bad player, but they worry about his confidence the first time he gets stuffed by Dwight Howard or Roy Hibbert. (To be sure, I'm not counting on it, but it's an interesting perspective.)

[JasonEvans]

As long as this has morphed into a draft stock thread...

It is interesting to note that Smart, who would have been a top 4 pick and might have even gone #1 (there was no consensus top player) had he come out last year is widely expected to be maybe #5 this year, perhaps even a few spots lower. I know that is largely a reflection upon the quality of this draft versus last year's weak draft, but it is still notable that staying an extra year does not automatically improve one's draft stock.

Embiid is rapidly becoming the consensus #1 pick. Some mocks still have Parker #1, but he has noticeably slipped and Embiid's recent offensive prowess (he's averaging 13.4ppg over his last 7 games with a shooting percentage of 72%) have teams drooling over what Embiid could be. The "next Olajuwon" comments don't seem nearly as far-fetched as they once did. The fact that he is this good after playing basketball for only a couple years is freaky. Kid has an almost limitless ceiling. Of course, not everyone subscribes to the belief that an elite post player is the best path to a title in the current NBA.

-Jason "I am with wilko -- I am sure Parker is gone that way I won't be even mildly disappointed if he declares... oh and Hood is even more gone than Parker is" Evans

[TexHawk]

Of course, not everyone subscribes to the belief that an elite post player is the best path to a title in the current NBA.
How many of those "elite post players" actually exist though? It depends on your definition, of course. But I see Dwight Howard, Roy Hibbert, and Tim Duncan as elite post players. Pau Gasol and Kevin Garnett were but are on their way out of the league. There are others who are average-to-above average, like Noah, Horford, Drummond, and Lopez. Howard and Hibbert haven't won titles (yet), but if you draft a guy like Embiid who ends up at their level, the front-office won't have to apologize. Even if one of Wiggins-Parker-Randle-Exum turns into the next Michael Jordan.

Looking back, outside of Jordan and Lebron, how many titles were won by teams without elite big men? That Pistons team?

[johnb]

In regards to Jabari's duration at Duke...

I don't think I've read anything that directly quotes him except in so much that he values education and would like to be a role model for the kids back in Chicago.

Coach K says he expects him to go pro, but what else would he say? That a top 3 pick should stick around? Surely that's a bad way to recruit future super elite players.

And I'm assuming everyone else is just assuming a possible #1 pick will go pro asap.

I am still holding out the possibility (however slim) that he decides that a second year of college would be good for him both personally and professionally. If he leaves this spring, that's fine (and I won't hold it against him, though I wouldn't hold my beath waiting for an opportunity to mention it in one of our many casual conversations).

More than most kids, Jabari surely knows that the NBA is a tough job and that even if he waits a year, he'll be making serious money before his classmates ever get their degrees. So, I'm guessing there's a 15% chance that he'll take out a little injury insurance and try to shift from being Luol or Kyrie (both of whom had/have clear educational interests but didn't make a solid dent at Duke) to being more like a Jay Williams, Shane Battier, or Grant Hill, guys whose post-NBA careers are likely to be more interesting than their athletic ones, a fact that seems related to their decisions to delay entering the NBA. I'm guessing that Jabari is unusual enough that he is willing to do what it takes to have one of those unusual career trajectories and that the decision will come down to whether he enjoys being on campus more than when he breaks out of his current shooting slump.

[vick]

How many of those "elite post players" actually exist though? It depends on your definition, of course. But I see Dwight Howard, Roy Hibbert, and Tim Duncan as elite post players. Pau Gasol and Kevin Garnett were but are on their way out of the league. There are others who are average-to-above average, like Noah, Horford, Drummond, and Lopez. Howard and Hibbert haven't won titles (yet), but if you draft a guy like Embiid who ends up at their level, the front-office won't have to apologize. Even if one of Wiggins-Parker-Randle-Exum turns into the next Michael Jordan.

Looking back, outside of Jordan and Lebron, how many titles were won by teams without elite big men? That Pistons team?

Roy Hibbert, while a very good defensive player and a solid contributor on offense, is averaging 12 points per game this year. If that puts you in the "elite" category of big men (and I'd agree with you that he's up there), I think that's evidence that the league has shifted away from the post.

[ChillinDuke]

YA!! THIS!
No one can know whats in his head/heart - but the easiest way to avoid disappointment is to consider him gone.
Free yourself from stressing over it...

It's not even about avoiding disappointment. It's about being reasonable.

While I admit it is within the realm of possibility that Jabari returns to Duke for his sophomore season, it is definitely not reasonable to assume so - by any metric.

It's just highly, highly unlikely to happen.

Anyone claiming definitely to the contrary is akin to the crazies yelling in the NYC subway about the impending asteroid that will end the Earth tomorrow. Possible? I guess. But not something I'm considering as I pass by.

- Chillin

[GGLC]

Roy Hibbert, while a very good defensive player and a solid contributor on offense, is averaging 12 points per game this year. If that puts you in the "elite" category of big men (and I'd agree with you that he's up there), I think that's evidence that the league has shifted away from the post.

Yes, if Hibbert qualifies then both Marc Gasol and Lamarcus Aldridge absolutely qualify.

[TexHawk]

Roy Hibbert, while a very good defensive player and a solid contributor on offense, is averaging 12 points per game this year. If that puts you in the "elite" category of big men (and I'd agree with you that he's up there), I think that's evidence that the league has shifted away from the post.

Fair enough. With Hibbert specifically, his impact is much bigger on defense (much much more than a "solid contributor", he's likely the DPOY). He is arguably the key player in the entire Eastern conference (non-Lebron division). The Pacers would be 4-6 seed good without him, but they are in the title conversation today purely because of his presence, which matches up quite well with Miami's lack of post presence.

[Des Esseintes]

Roy Hibbert, while a very good defensive player and a solid contributor on offense, is averaging 12 points per game this year. If that puts you in the "elite" category of big men (and I'd agree with you that he's up there), I think that's evidence that the league has shifted away from the post.


Fair enough. With Hibbert specifically, his impact is much bigger on defense (much much more than a "solid contributor", he's likely the DPOY). He is arguably the key player in the entire Eastern conference (non-Lebron division). The Pacers would be 4-6 seed good without him, but they are in the title conversation today purely because of his presence, which matches up quite well with Miami's lack of post presence.

Hibbert should absolutely qualify as elite. His defense is insanely valuable. From a Zach Lowe article (http://grantland.com/the-triangle/is-anyone-willing-to-pay-for-omer-asik/) last month on Omer Asik:


Teams measure all kinds of stuff in sophisticated ways, and then they measure which of that stuff correlates most with winning games. There are three or four attributes that trump everything else in driving wins, according to team personnel across the league, and one of them is top-level rim protection. Roy Hibbert earns about $14.5 million per season on a max-level contract, and just about every even mildly analytics-oriented person I know says, matter-of-factly, that Hibbert is underpaid given his on-court value — perhaps grossly so. Some folks have pegged his value in the $25 million–$30 million range. Remember: This is a big man who shoots below 50 percent and seems to look ordinary on offense, even awkward, against every team but Miami.

Jonathan Tjarks has written often about the importance of elite big men on titlist teams. Here he is after the Miami-Indy series (http://basketball.realgm.com/article/227999/The-Timelessness-Of-Size) last spring:



The pattern in LeBron James’ playoff defeats is striking. It takes a Defensive Player of the Year manning the middle to beat him: Ben Wallace (2006), Tim Duncan (2007), Kevin Garnett (2008, 2010), Dwight Howard (2009) and Chandler (2011). You could see the dynamic playing out against Indiana. Through the first six games, Miami took 33 percent of their shots in the paint with Hibbert in and 42 percent with him out. Even LeBron finds it difficult to finish over the top of a 7’2, 275 center with a 7’4+ wingspan. If he’s allowed to run a conga line to the front of the rim, i.e. the end of Game 1, forget it.
and



Regardless of what happens in the Finals, the lesson of these playoffs is clear. If you don’t have LeBron or Kevin Durant, a two-way center is still the quickest way to playoff success. Here were the centers of the other six teams in the second round: Hibbert, Duncan, Chandler, Joakim Noah, Marc Gasol and Andrew Bogut. A great center will always be the apex predator of the NBA food chain. Only when they aren’t around can different types of players rule. If Yao Ming, Andrew Bynum and Greg Oden were healthy, the NBA would be a very different place.

Great as he is, Jabari doesn't look like he has the ceiling of LeBron or Durant. If Embiid has the chance to become Olajuwon, you draft that dude #1.

[vick]

Fair enough. With Hibbert specifically, his impact is much bigger on defense (much much more than a "solid contributor", he's likely the DPOY). He is arguably the key player in the entire Eastern conference (non-Lebron division). The Pacers would be 4-6 seed good without him, but they are in the title conversation today purely because of his presence, which matches up quite well with Miami's lack of post presence.


Hibbert should absolutely qualify as elite. His defense is insanely valuable.

I agree with both of you here. I said he was a "solid contributor" on offense and I maintain that's the right way to describe him; 106 Ortg/20.5% usage is right at league average. His defense is absolutely world class and that makes him "elite" by any reasonable definition of the world. Still, as great as he is, compare 2013 (http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ratings/2013.html) adjusted plus-minus leaders to, say, 2000 (http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ratings/2000.html) and you definitely see a shift away from post players, especially in offensive value (going farther back the data on substitution data is considerably less reliable). I agree about the value of rim protection making Embiid a very valuable pick, even potentially over Parker.

[Edouble]

How many of those "elite post players" actually exist though? It depends on your definition, of course. But I see Dwight Howard, Roy Hibbert, and Tim Duncan as elite post players. Pau Gasol and Kevin Garnett were but are on their way out of the league. There are others who are average-to-above average, like Noah, Horford, Drummond, and Lopez. Howard and Hibbert haven't won titles (yet), but if you draft a guy like Embiid who ends up at their level, the front-office won't have to apologize. Even if one of Wiggins-Parker-Randle-Exum turns into the next Michael Jordan.

Looking back, outside of Jordan and Lebron, how many titles were won by teams without elite big men? That Pistons team?

Kevin Love, while not a center, is possibly the most elite big man in the game right now. Also, LaMarcus Aldridge and Anthony Davis, both centers, are better than any player that you have mentioned.

[duketaylor]

As the season has matured, coaches realize that Jabari is Duke's #1 option on offense, paired with Hood's difficulty to knock down shots, Amile and Rasheed's inability to get their offensive game going (until recently), and Andre can be guarded by a suitable defender and rendered weak. Given that there's no true inside game (in the lane, see Marshall, or anyone else) it's much easier to pressure Jabari outside as soon as he touches the ball. Duke struggles to drive effectively or even post-up in the lane, hence, take away anybody with the ball on the perimeter and it's easy to defense. Hood doesn't drive to the basket effectively, Jabari chooses to pull-up more often than driving inside. Nobody posts-up and is a threat. It's simple to defend that, IMO. If we had someone who could do a better job of breaking down the defense with penetration and either finishing or kicking back outside it might make a difference. Not the case, yet. Hope it changes, and soon.

Duke has weaknesses on both sides, luckily we're pretty athletic this year. Yet, that doesn't mean but so much. If we have increased offensive production from Rasheed and Amile then things will open up for Jabari. Until then, we've got some issues that are easily exploited, IMO.

[GGLC]

Kevin Love, while not a center, is possibly the most elite big man in the game right now. Also, LaMarcus Aldridge and Anthony Davis, both centers, are better than any player that you have mentioned.

Good call on Davis and Love. Davis, I think, will be a perennial first team All-NBA player (as in arguably one of the top five players in the league) much more quickly than people realize.

[Des Esseintes]

Kevin Love, while not a center, is possibly the most elite big man in the game right now. Also, LaMarcus Aldridge and Anthony Davis, both centers, are better than any player that you have mentioned.

Neither Love nor Aldridge is a center. They are power forwards. Pekovic plays the 5 in Minnesota; Robin Lopez does so in Portland. More to the point, neither offers the elite rim protection that seems to pave the way to title convention. Mind you, I love both guys. You could probably win a championship with either one as your best player, especially Aldridge. (Love maybe it's more of an open question, since his defensive limitations are so significant. Chris Bosh, Aldridge, and Griffin, who has advanced much on D, are just better-rounded players.) It's simply they're not the sort of player under discussion here. Davis is closer. He often plays at the 4, but his defensive abilities inside are off the charts and heading for outer space. Which is a big reason he went #1 overall two years ago.

[greybeard]

Hibbert is a very, very, very good center who is essential to the Pacer's success. Beyond that, depends entirely on context, imo.

[roywhite]

FWIW, here's some speculation from an NBA blogger:

Sam Smith's NBA news and notes | 01.20.2014 (http://www.nba.com/bulls/news/sam-smiths-nba-news-and-notes-01202014.html)


And the growing view among NBA executives seems to be Jabari Parker will not leave Duke this year. Chicagoan Jahlil Okafor, a Parker friend and big man, is going to Duke next season. Parker is a bright young man with a strong family and the feeling is he understands both the importance of education and feels he owes Duke and the chance to have a great Duke team, which more than likely is the next two seasons. Plus, Parker has seen what staying in school has done for other greats compared with the tough starts for even stars like Kobe Bryant.

[Kedsy]

FWIW, here's some speculation from an NBA blogger:

Sam Smith's NBA news and notes | 01.20.2014 (http://www.nba.com/bulls/news/sam-smiths-nba-news-and-notes-01202014.html)

I'll believe it when Jabari announces he's staying and not a minute before.

[Kedsy]

As the season has matured, coaches realize that Jabari is Duke's #1 option on offense, paired with Hood's difficulty to knock down shots, Amile and Rasheed's inability to get their offensive game going (until recently), and Andre can be guarded by a suitable defender and rendered weak. Given that there's no true inside game (in the lane, see Marshall, or anyone else) it's much easier to pressure Jabari outside as soon as he touches the ball. Duke struggles to drive effectively or even post-up in the lane, hence, take away anybody with the ball on the perimeter and it's easy to defense. Hood doesn't drive to the basket effectively, Jabari chooses to pull-up more often than driving inside. Nobody posts-up and is a threat. It's simple to defend that, IMO. If we had someone who could do a better job of breaking down the defense with penetration and either finishing or kicking back outside it might make a difference. Not the case, yet. Hope it changes, and soon.

Duke has weaknesses on both sides, luckily we're pretty athletic this year. Yet, that doesn't mean but so much. If we have increased offensive production from Rasheed and Amile then things will open up for Jabari. Until then, we've got some issues that are easily exploited, IMO.

And notwithstanding all the flaws duketaylor has found in our offense, according to Pomeroy we still have the #2 offense in the nation. Also, Rodney Hood, who according to duketaylor has "difficulty to knock down shots," has an eFG% of 60.6%, which among qualifiers is tied for 1st in the ACC. Oh, and Andre Dawkins, who according to duketaylor can be "rendered weak" by a "suitable defender," ranks 6th in the ACC in offensive rating.

So maybe we're not "simple to defend" as dt seems to think.

[Indoor66]

And notwithstanding all the flaws duketaylor has found in our offense, according to Pomeroy we still have the #2 offense in the nation. Also, Rodney Hood, who according to duketaylor has "difficulty to knock down shots," has an eFG% of 60.6%, which among qualifiers is tied for 1st in the ACC. Oh, and Andre Dawkins, who according to duketaylor can be "rendered weak" by a "suitable defender," ranks 6th in the ACC in offensive rating.

So maybe we're not "simple to defend" as dt seems to think.

Nice snark.

[CDu]

There's no way Mitchell, Auguste, or Holsey could do anything to slow down Jabari when he's right. They're not even athletic. Burgett and Blossomgame do strike me as athletic guys who could do a decent job. Still, a top 3 pick in a strong draft isn't going to struggle this much against big, athletic guys. There's a large mental aspect to this slump.

Agreed. Note as well that Holsey played all of 18 minutes due to foul trouble, and Auguste played just 16 minutes. And not all of those minutes came with Parker on the floor. Neither of those guys are any longer or more athletic (in fact, both are a good bit less athletic) than Perry Ellis, against whom Parker scored 27.

It's a nice theory, but not one supported by facts.

I think a stronger argument is that teams are simply focusing more on Parker now than they were at the beginning of the season, and the quality of those teams are better than much of what we were facing earlier in the season. The double-teams are coming more frequently, more quickly, and more physically, and Parker has yet to adjust to that.

I suspect that he will do so.

[Troublemaker]

Agreed, CDu. Hopefully he can identify where they're coming from and pick up some assists along the way while staying aggressive and not settling for jumpers. Like you, I'm confident he'll be fine. In fact, NCSU was perhaps the first game of his resurgence.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

From this article (http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/93013/brennans-wooden-watch-week-10) about Wooden Award candidates, specifically addressing Jabari:


But Parker was good again at Miami Wednesday and, occasional blips aside, he is taking on a huge share of offense (and defensive rebounding) for a Blue Devils team that struggles on the frontline and desperately needs to outscore its opponents to win.

I would be hard-pressed to find the team that doesn't need to outscore opponents to win.

Go Duke!

[Henderson]

I would be hard-pressed to find the team that doesn't need to outscore opponents to win.


Oh, no, not another Bush-Gore 2000 thread...

[Edouble]

Neither Love nor Aldridge is a center. They are power forwards. Pekovic plays the 5 in Minnesota; Robin Lopez does so in Portland. More to the point, neither offers the elite rim protection that seems to pave the way to title convention. Mind you, I love both guys. You could probably win a championship with either one as your best player, especially Aldridge. (Love maybe it's more of an open question, since his defensive limitations are so significant. Chris Bosh, Aldridge, and Griffin, who has advanced much on D, are just better-rounded players.) It's simply they're not the sort of player under discussion here. Davis is closer. He often plays at the 4, but his defensive abilities inside are off the charts and heading for outer space. Which is a big reason he went #1 overall two years ago.

Yes, I know.

The OP did not mention centers. I was responding to Texhawk's post that asked who are the current "elite post players". I took this to mean on offense. I would think the OP would mention "Elite post defenders" if that was what he/she wanted to discuss.

Some power forwards (Duncan, McHale) have more of a post presence than others (Rodman, Dirk). For my money, I would still call Love a post player, despite his 3-point shooting prowess. I would also definitely call Aldridge a post player. Both guys have a jumper, but also mix it up inside. Aldridge loves getting the ball on the low block.

The OP was asking about "elite post players" in the NBA. I would still go with Love, Aldridge, and Davis.

To me, "best centers" is another discussion.

[miramar]

While I haven't gone back to the box scores, there is no question that Jabari is not hitting threes as well as at the beginning of the season. I went to the UM game and he missed four straight threes during warmups, which was a real surprise. I have to wonder if the first-year grind and guarding bigger guys is affecting his leg strength.

The author is right to say that Jabari looks bigger in person than you would expect from seeing him on TV--in fact, he looks huge next to Rodney--but I can't believe he would be out of shape if he's practicing a couple of hours a day. He's not Taylor King.

[jv001]

While I haven't gone back to the box scores, there is no question that Jabari is not hitting threes as well as at the beginning of the season. I went to the UM game and he missed four straight threes during warmups, which was a real surprise. I have to wonder if the first-year grind and guarding bigger guys is affecting his leg strength.

The author is right to say that Jabari looks bigger in person than you would expect from seeing him on TV--in fact, he looks huge next to Rodney--but I can't believe he would be out of shape if he's practicing a couple of hours a day. He's not Taylor King.

I think the less Jabari has to guard the 5, the better for him and the team. Guarding the big guys can take a toll on your legs getting tired. Could that be a reason for his poor three point shooting? I don't know, but the line change and Amile/Plumlee guarding the 5 has to help Jabari. I look for his 3 pointers to start falling again. Not like the beginning of the season because that was unconscious shooting. But somewhere around 38%-41%. Beat FSU and GoDuke!

[Troublemaker]

While I haven't gone back to the box scores, there is no question that Jabari is not hitting threes as well as at the beginning of the season.

I think some of that is just randomness and a "return to mean" effect, and I believe Jabari will shoot threes at a high 30s percentage for the rest of the season. It is definitely something worth tracking, though. But his 50+% from 3 earlier in the season was unsustainable.

I actually feel pretty good about our offense right now. We still sport an offensive efficiency of 120+ despite our best players having their shooting percentages decline from previous unsustainable levels. Quinn is now shooting 2s in the low 50s % and Rodney in the mid-50s whereas both were in the 60s earlier in the season. Likewise, Amile is mid-60s when earlier he was in the 70s. From 3, Jabari is currently 39% and Rodney is 46% when prior, they were both in the 50s.

[UrinalCake]

Anybody else catch Jabari's quick interview on ESPN radio yesterday afternoon? They asked him about what factors would affect his decision on whether to leave after the season, and he said it would come down to whether or not he feels he is physically and developmentally ready for the NBA. If so then he'll go. But if he feels like he needs more time to develop, then he'll stay.

The answer made total sense, but I guess I've always assumed there were additional factors in play - his Mormon mission, wanting to get more education, wanting to leave a legacy at Duke, the strength of this year's draft vs. next year, etc. And it may well be that these factors are all very important to him, he just didn't have the time or desire to get into it during this short interview.

They also asked him about his slump early in the ACC season. He said it was more mental than physical, that he wasn't preparing as much as he needed to for each game.

When asked to compare himself against the other stud freshmen he was very humble and said he didn't think he was as good as them. None of the announcers bought it, saying afterwards that they think he must believe he could beat Wiggins one on one.

A lot more was covered, it was a great listen. I'll try to find a link.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Anybody else catch Jabari's quick interview on ESPN radio yesterday afternoon? They asked him about what factors would affect his decision on whether to leave after the season, and he said it would come down to whether or not he feels he is physically and developmentally ready for the NBA. If so then he'll go. But if he feels like he needs more time to develop, then he'll stay.

The answer made total sense, but I guess I've always assumed there were additional factors in play - his Mormon mission, wanting to get more education, wanting to leave a legacy at Duke, the strength of this year's draft vs. next year, etc. And it may well be that these factors are all very important to him, he just didn't have the time or desire to get into it during this short interview.

They also asked him about his slump early in the ACC season. He said it was more mental than physical, that he wasn't preparing as much as he needed to for each game.

When asked to compare himself against the other stud freshmen he was very humble and said he didn't think he was as good as them. None of the announcers bought it, saying afterwards that they think he must believe he could beat Wiggins one on one.

A lot more was covered, it was a great listen. I'll try to find a link.

Interesting. A few points:

1) Jabari is humble. But that doesn't mean he doesn't have confidence. I think his hero ball 3s are proof of his insane confidence level.

2) I am not at all surprised by his factors regarding leaving early. It's a very mature answer. And Jabari is mature. I'm sure Jabari does value an education and he does value his Mormon mission. But a lot of young players who bolt (not most, but a lot) value similar things. However, an education will always be there, and the Mormon church will support Jabari. The $6 million he'll make (salary and endorsements) when he is 19-years old won't always be there (it will probably be there again when he's 20, but he only gets to make that once when he's 19). If Jabari is serious about his education, he'll pursue it in the NBA off-seasons. If he's serious about his religion, he'll give back in many ways (financially, publicity, recruiting, etc.).

3) Color me shocked if Jabari stays for another year given his "ready for the NBA comment". Given that commentators have said Jabari can average 15-20 right now in the NBA, I'd say that he's physically ready. I'm really not sure what Duke can give him that the NBA can't next year.

[Troublemaker]

They also asked him about his slump early in the ACC season. He said it was more mental than physical, that he wasn't preparing as much as he needed to for each game.

When asked to compare himself against the other stud freshmen he was very humble and said he didn't think he was as good as them. None of the announcers bought it, saying afterwards that they think he must believe he could beat Wiggins one on one.

A lot more was covered, it was a great listen. I'll try to find a link.

Thanks for the heads up, UC. Here's the link: http://espn.go.com/espnradio/play?id=10371718

[tux]

Given that commentators have said Jabari can average 15-20 right now in the NBA, I'd say that he's physically ready. I'm really not sure what Duke can give him that the NBA can't next year.




I think it depends more on what Jabari means by "developmentally" ready. If he's just talking about basketball, then I agree that the NBA will provide everything Duke can (plus several million dollars). However, several interviews I've read with Parker's friends and teammates indicate that Parker still very much enjoys being a "kid" and that he values the relative anonymity that Duke provides. A very small number of 19 year old kids are ready physically for the NBA. And, of that group, only a few would be ready mentally, where the NBA is a dream job but still a *job* in every sense of the word.

I think he's more likely to stay than many others projected in the high lottery.

[Li_Duke]

Interesting. A few points:
3) Color me shocked if Jabari stays for another year given his "ready for the NBA comment". Given that commentators have said Jabari can average 15-20 right now in the NBA, I'd say that he's physically ready. I'm really not sure what Duke can give him that the NBA can't next year.

Skillwise, he's already ready, but I do think extra time at Duke can help him in some regards. In pro baseball, there's the belief that pitchers should build up their yearly workload over time to avoid injury. In pro basketball, injury would be an issue, but the bigger danger is building bad habits due to be exhausted all the time. Considering Jabari is a naturally gifted offensive player with stamina and defense issues, there's a real danger that if he goes to the NBA early, he'll become just a one-way player (aka Carmelo Anthony or Kyrie Irving). Besides giving him more time to improve his conditioning and body, extra time at Duke could help him develop ingrained habits in regards to blocking out and playing good defense -- habits he'd be less likely to abandon once he's in the NBA and playing back-to-backs.

[UrinalCake]

Good point Li_Duke, and I think developing his defense is probably the biggest on-the-court reason to come back, especially if he projects to be an NBA 3. He'll be asked to defend players that are tons quicker and not that much smaller than the college 4's and 5's he's currently going up against. Plus he'll need more one-on-one defensive ability, as opposed to the team defensive concepts employed by K.

I also do wonder how Kyrie's progression defensively would be different had he stayed another year.

With that said, it's unlikely that Jabari would actually have to sit on an NBA bench due to his defensive shortcomings, so he may as well go and develop those skills at the next level.