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grad_devil
01-13-2014, 12:53 PM
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings/_/year/2014/poll/1

Here's to getting a statement win tonight to begin the long climb back up to top-10 status.

allenmurray
01-13-2014, 01:07 PM
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings/_/year/2014/poll/1

Here's to getting a statement win tonight to begin the long climb back up to top-10 status.

Duke football finished the year ranked #22. When was the last time the football team was higher ranked than the basketball team?

The transition is official - we are now a football school.

Tripping William
01-13-2014, 01:11 PM
(1) Must Duke defeat both UVa and State this week to remain in the AP Top 25? I vote "yes."

(2) When was the last time that neither Duke nor Carolina was ranked in the AP basketball poll (recognizing that this might date to back to when the AP poll listed fewer than 25 teams)?

Olympic Fan
01-13-2014, 01:13 PM
Duke football finished the year ranked #22. When was the last time the football team was higher ranked than the basketball team?

The transition is official - we are now a football school.

You are mixing and matching polls ... Duke football was No. 23 in the final AP poll ... just as Duke is No. 23 in the current basketball poll.

Duke was No. 22 in the final coaches poll in football ... the newest basketball poll comes out later today. Last week, Duke was three places higher in the coaches poll than in AP (13 vs. 16).

DukieInBrasil
01-13-2014, 01:18 PM
(1) Must Duke defeat both UVa and State this week to remain in the AP Top 25? I vote "yes."

(2) When was the last time that neither Duke nor Carolina was ranked in the AP poll (recognizing that this might date to back to when the AP poll listed fewer than 25 teams)?

Since both are at home, then yes. If the UVa game were on the road and Duke were to lose but then beat NCSU at home, i think Duke could remain in the top25 depending on what other teams did.
It is more important for Duke to get back to the Top10, and to do that Duke must win both games this week, although winning both would not allow us to climb more than 5 spots or so.

allenmurray
01-13-2014, 01:34 PM
You are mixing and matching polls ... Duke football was No. 23 in the final AP poll ... just as Duke is No. 23 in the current basketball poll.

Duke was No. 22 in the final coaches poll in football ... the newest basketball poll comes out later today. Last week, Duke was three places higher in the coaches poll than in AP (13 vs. 16).

You are correct, so I'll restate my question: When was the last time Duke's football team and Duke's basketball team had the exact same ranking in the AP poll (assuming they were both ranked)?

BlueDevilBrowns
01-13-2014, 01:37 PM
(1) Must Duke defeat both UVa and State this week to remain in the AP Top 25? I vote "yes."

(2) When was the last time that neither Duke nor Carolina was ranked in the AP basketball poll (recognizing that this might date to back to when the AP poll listed fewer than 25 teams)?

1) - Yes

2) - I believe the answer is at some point during the 1982-1983 season.

Ichabod Drain
01-13-2014, 01:41 PM
On a side note UCLA climbed in the rankings at #25... so we now have a win against a team ranked in the top 25.

Tripping William
01-13-2014, 01:52 PM
2) - I believe the answer is at some point during the 1982-1983 season.


That bit of guidance helped me to look it up. It appears it was the AP poll on 12/28/82. Carolina dropped out of the poll that came out on 12/21/82 following a loss to Tulsa, their third of the season. The Heels then won something like 18 straight.

Source:

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/north-carolina/1983-schedule.html

Jarhead
01-13-2014, 01:54 PM
To be straight on this, Duke basketball is #23 in the AP poll, and # 20 in the coaches (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings)poll. Football ended the year # 23 in the AP and #22 in the coaches. (http://espn.go.com/college-football/rankings), but I'm not complaining. At least we are mentioned in the polls in both sports, and I'm not giving up on basketball.

gam7
01-13-2014, 02:03 PM
To be straight on this, Duke basketball is #23 in the AP poll, and # 20 in the coaches (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings)poll. Football ended the year # 23 in the AP and #22 in the coaches. (http://espn.go.com/college-football/rankings), but I'm not complaining. At least we are mentioned in the polls in both sports, and I'm not giving up on basketball.

Ranked at #23 in the AP poll, Duke is entering uncharted territory. Duke literally has never, ever, ever been ranked anywhere from 22-25 in the AP poll. And has played a whopping 3 games (2-1 record) ever as the AP #21 ranked team. That's pretty amazing when you think about it. Throughout Duke's history, it's basically Top 20 or bust. We have played 8 games as the 20th ranked AP team and are 8-0 with that ranking. Source is the Duke game notes.

sagegrouse
01-13-2014, 03:33 PM
Duke football finished the year ranked #22. When was the last time the football team was higher ranked than the basketball team?

The transition is official - we are now a football school.

Answered by El Urogallo in a prior thread. Duke football was ranked #10 in the last AP poll of 1960. The basketball team was unranked in the 1960-1961 season until it was #8 on December 15, 1960 in a game against Clemson. It's been 53 years.

After that, Duke was ranked in the AP top ten for six consecutive years, falling out in December 1966, after losing twice in LA to UCLA and Lew Alcindor.

Olympic Fan
01-13-2014, 03:51 PM
Ranked at #23 in the AP poll, Duke is entering uncharted territory. Duke literally has never, ever, ever been ranked anywhere from 22-25 in the AP poll. And has played a whopping 3 games (2-1 record) ever as the AP #21 ranked team. That's pretty amazing when you think about it. Throughout Duke's history, it's basically Top 20 or bust. We have played 8 games as the 20th ranked AP team and are 8-0 with that ranking. Source is the Duke game notes.

That is freaky ... the AP extended its poll from 20 to 25 in 1990. In the last 24 years, Duke has usually been ranked top 10 ... the few times it dropped out of the poll Duke dropped hard -- from 16 to out in 1995, from 19 to out in 1996 and from 16 to out in 2007, then after we got back in that year, from 21 to out in the final poll.

I agree that Duke must go 2-0 this week to stay in the rankings. 1-1 (either way) and Duke drops out for the first time since the final 2007 poll ... it would be just the third poll since the final 1996 when Duke was unranked (the previous two came Feb. 12, 2007 and the final 2007 poll).

The early 1982-3 poll is the last time neither Duke nor UNC was ranked. It's funny, Duke was never ranked that season (the was the 11-17 season when Dawkins and company were freshmen), but UNC started the year No. 3 and after three weeks, dropped out of the poll on Dec. 21, 1982 ... UNC also missed Dec. 28, 1982 -- making those the last two polls without a Duke or UNC in the rankings. UNC fought back to No. 1 by the first of February and finished No. 8.

Sage is right that in 1960-61, Duke football was ranked No. 10 in he final AP poll. But basketball team was ranked No. 8 in the first AP poll on Dec. 13 of that year. I guess you could argue that since basketball finished No. 18 in the final 1959 poll that football was ranked higher for a few weeks -- but never during the same school year.

The last time that Duke football was actually ranked higher in the AP during the same school year was 1954-55, when the football team finished No. 14 and the basketball team was unranked (although I should point out, that is the first Duke team to play in the NCAA Tournament -- because NC State was on probation.

Newton_14
01-15-2014, 08:59 PM
The early 1982-3 poll is the last time neither Duke nor UNC was ranked. It's funny, Duke was never ranked that season (the was the 11-17 season when Dawkins and company were freshmen), but UNC started the year No. 3 and after three weeks, dropped out of the poll on Dec. 21, 1982 ... UNC also missed Dec. 28, 1982 -- making those the last two polls without a Duke or UNC in the rankings. UNC fought back to No. 1 by the first of February and finished No. 8.


Wow. Thanks for that history lesson Oly. I think that gives credence to, and complements nicely an article that was on the front page a few weeks ago (by Al F) that pointed out that things can change, and change a lot, over the course of a college basketball season for a team. Just because a team is struggling in December or January, does not doom them to struggling and not being a good team in March. Some teams that struggle early or even in mid-season, can and sometimes do come together later in the season and play great basketball.

Important lesson for everyone to to take to heart with our current team.

devildeac
01-15-2014, 09:08 PM
Wow. Thanks for that history lesson Oly. I think that gives credence to, and complements nicely an article that was on the front page a few weeks ago (by Al F) that pointed out that things can change, and change a lot, over the course of a college basketball season for a team. Just because a team is struggling in December or January, does not doom them to struggling and not being a good team in March. Some teams that struggle early or even in mid-season, can and sometimes do come together later in the season and play great basketball.

Important lesson for everyone to to take to heart with our current team.

Another tidbit I learned from reading the N&O this week: The writer thought the last time all four members of the "Big Four," Duke, NCSU, WFU and unc, lost on the same day dated back to the mid 1940s, before the old Southern Conference began. That writer nailed it, along with a poster here, that the last time Duke, NCSU and unc lost on the same day was 1996, IIRC.

kAzE
01-16-2014, 02:44 AM
Wow. Thanks for that history lesson Oly. I think that gives credence to, and complements nicely an article that was on the front page a few weeks ago (by Al F) that pointed out that things can change, and change a lot, over the course of a college basketball season for a team. Just because a team is struggling in December or January, does not doom them to struggling and not being a good team in March. Some teams that struggle early or even in mid-season, can and sometimes do come together later in the season and play great basketball.

Important lesson for everyone to to take to heart with our current team.

Remember back in the 2010-11 season when UConn went 9-9 in the big East, then won 11 straight games to win both the Big East Tournament and the National Championship? You just gotta get hot at the right time.

CameronBornAndBred
01-16-2014, 08:18 AM
Another tidbit I learned from reading the N&O this week: The writer thought the last time all four members of the "Big Four," Duke, NCSU, WFU and unc, lost on the same day dated back to the mid 1940s, before the old Southern Conference began. That writer nailed it, along with a poster here, that the last time Duke, NCSU and unc lost on the same day was 1996, IIRC.
The silver lining in everyone losing is that it makes it a little easier to show up to work the next day. No fear of gloaters.

uh_no
01-16-2014, 12:44 PM
Remember back in the 2010-11 season when UConn went 9-9 in the big East, then won 11 straight games to win both the Big East Tournament and the National Championship? You just gotta get hot at the right time.

uconn had also beaten #8 UK by 20, #2 MSU (on back to back nights) #12 texas #7 villanova and #9 georgetown

duke has no wins near that quality so far this year....we're they hot at the right time? for sure...but it wasn't like they came out of nowhere

Des Esseintes
01-16-2014, 12:52 PM
uconn had also beaten #8 UK by 20, #2 MSU (on back to back nights) #12 texas #7 villanova and #9 georgetown

duke has no wins near that quality so far this year....we're they hot at the right time? for sure...but it wasn't like they came out of nowhere

If Duke goes on a big run this year, we are in no danger of being accused of coming from nowhere. This team has a massive talent pedigree pretty much everyone expects to round into some degree of formidable form by season's end.

Kedsy
01-16-2014, 01:13 PM
uconn had also beaten #8 UK by 20, #2 MSU (on back to back nights) #12 texas #7 villanova and #9 georgetown

duke has no wins near that quality so far this year....we're they hot at the right time? for sure...but it wasn't like they came out of nowhere

First of all, Michigan State may have been #2 when UConn beat them in a November tournament, but they ended up 19-15, lost to Penn State in the Big East tournament and then in the first round of the NCAAT, so they weren't really so much of a quality win. UK made the Final Four, but they only finished 10-6 in the SEC. And at this point in 2011, UConn hadn't yet beaten Villanova or Georgetown.

More importantly, 2011 UConn went 4-7 between January 29 and March 5 (through the regular season finale). Four of the seven losses came at home and three of the seven were to unranked teams. I don't care how many good wins they had, they were squarely on the bubble before they won the Big East tourney.

Also, can you imagine what it'd be like around here if Duke played like that over the last five weeks of the season?

rsvman
01-16-2014, 01:23 PM
uconn had also beaten #8 UK by 20, #2 MSU (on back to back nights) #12 texas #7 villanova and #9 georgetown

duke has no wins near that quality so far this year....we're they hot at the right time? for sure...but it wasn't like they came out of nowhere

Yes, but they were .500 in their conference. They didn't even get a bye (?spelling) in their own conference tournament.

It would be serious revisionist history to now claim that anybody saw that run coming. So, in a sense, they DID come " out of nowhere ."

There are multiple other examples. Wasn't it the 1999-2000 TarHeels that were expected to not even get a bid but then made the Final Four and lost to eventual NC Florida? VCU was touted as proving that the selection process was fundamentally flawed; they played the then-called "play-in game" the year they made the Final Four.

These are just two examples, the point of which is to prove the point that a team can, in fact, come "out of nowhere" to do very well in the NCAA tournament.

uh_no
01-16-2014, 01:27 PM
Yes, but they were .500 in their conference. They didn't even get a bye (?spelling) in their own conference tournament.

It would be serious revisionist history to now claim that anybody saw that run coming. So, in a sense, they DID come " out of nowhere ."

There are multiple other examples. Wasn't it the 1999-2000 TarHeels that were expected to not even get a bid but then made the Final Four and lost to eventual NC Florida? VCU was touted as proving that the selection process was fundamentally flawed; they played the then-called "play-in game" the year they made the Final Four.

These are just two examples, the point of which is to prove the point that a team can, in fact, come "out of nowhere" to do very well in the NCAA tournament.

no doubt that teams can "come out of nowhere"....I just don't think that uconn team is the best analogy for this duke team.

flyingdutchdevil
01-16-2014, 01:30 PM
no doubt that teams can "come out of nowhere"....I just don't think that uconn team is the best analogy for this duke team.

Plus we're Duke. We never come out of nowhere. It's the curse of just being the best (although not at defense...:()

Kedsy
01-16-2014, 01:32 PM
Yes, but they were .500 in their conference. They didn't even get a bye (?spelling) in their own conference tournament.

It would be serious revisionist history to now claim that anybody saw that run coming. So, in a sense, they DID come " out of nowhere ."

There are multiple other examples. Wasn't it the 1999-2000 TarHeels that were expected to not even get a bid but then made the Final Four and lost to eventual NC Florida? VCU was touted as proving that the selection process was fundamentally flawed; they played the then-called "play-in game" the year they made the Final Four.

These are just two examples, the point of which is to prove the point that a team can, in fact, come "out of nowhere" to do very well in the NCAA tournament.

Yeah, UConn finished in a three-way tie for 9th/10th/11th in the Big East in 2011. Frankly, all four Final Four teams in 2011 (seeded #3, #4, #8, and #11) came out of nowhere. And add 2006 George Mason to your list as well, plus national champions 1983 NC State and 1985 Villanova, 1988 Kansas, and 1997 Arizona. And so on and so forth.

flyingdutchdevil
01-16-2014, 01:36 PM
Yeah, UConn finished in a three-way tie for 9th/10th/11th in the Big East in 2011. Frankly, all four Final Four teams in 2011 (seeded #3, #4, #8, and #11) came out of nowhere. And add 2006 George Mason to your list as well, plus national champions 1983 NC State and 1985 Villanova, 1988 Kansas, and 1997 Arizona. And so on and so forth.

Damn Kyrie's Big Toe!!!

Amazing that a tiny piece of a player's body can have such a devastating effect on the season. Gotta say that I tip my hat off to UConn. Along with the 2010 Duke team, that 2011 UConn team is one of the best coached teams. I never liked UConn nor Jim Calhoun, but my God he could coach.

Monmouth77
01-16-2014, 01:44 PM
There are multiple other examples. Wasn't it the 1999-2000 TarHeels that were expected to not even get a bid but then made the Final Four and lost to eventual NC Florida?

Florida knocked Duke and UNC out of the 2000 tournament. UNC and Wisconsin both made the Final Four that year as 8 seeds. But #1 seed and Tournament favorite Michigan State won it all.

Olympic Fan
01-20-2014, 04:21 PM
Despite what you may have heard on Raleigh radio, Duke climbs to No. 18 in the latest AP poll ... Duke is also No. 18 in the coaches poll.

That pits the Devils back in the top 20 ...

[Driving back from Greensboro today, I had to listen to Joe Ovies report at least three times that the new AP poll is out and that Duke had stayed at No. 23. Don't know what he was looking at].

FerryFor50
01-20-2014, 04:27 PM
Despite what you may have heard on Raleigh radio, Duke climbs to No. 18 in the latest AP poll ... Duke is also No. 18 in the coaches poll.

That pits the Devils back in the top 20 ...

[Driving back from Greensboro today, I had to listen to Joe Ovies report at least three times that the new AP poll is out and that Duke had stayed at No. 23. Don't know what he was looking at].

Seth Davis doesn't even have Duke in his top 25...

hurleyfor3
01-20-2014, 04:42 PM
If no one objects, I'll make this the season-long human poll discussion thread. (And if someone does object you can go stuff it, cuz I'm a mod and you're not.)

sagegrouse
01-20-2014, 04:43 PM
Despite what you may have heard on Raleigh radio, Duke climbs to No. 18 in the latest AP poll ... Duke is also No. 18 in the coaches poll.

That pits the Devils back in the top 20 ...

[Driving back from Greensboro today, I had to listen to Joe Ovies report at least three times that the new AP poll is out and that Duke had stayed at No. 23. Don't know what he was looking at].

I think I do. The article on the front page of ESPN on the new poll had a sidebar "Poll." It wasn't updated from week 11 to week 12 for two or three hours. Looking for specifics, one got the prior week.

arnie
01-20-2014, 05:13 PM
I think I do. The article on the front page of ESPN on the new poll had a sidebar "Poll." It wasn't updated from week 11 to week 12 for two or three hours. Looking for specifics, one got the prior week.

I'm surprised they even mentioned Duke. Most of the discussion in the triangle is centered around the ex-Wisconsin QB that will be in the super bowl.

Wander
01-20-2014, 05:50 PM
It would be serious revisionist history to now claim that anybody saw that run coming. So, in a sense, they DID come " out of nowhere ."


Yes and no. They were a reasonably popular pick to make the Final Four (admittedly, this is after the Big East tournament), and Kemba Walker was a first team All American. I guess it depends exactly on how you define the language "out of nowhere," but I'd say that while they were definitely not one of the best teams during the regular season, they don't belong in the same category as Villanova or George Mason or VCU.

At any rate, the "NCAA tournament is flukey" meme is overblown. It's possible to "get hot at the right time" and win the championship, but very unlikely if you weren't one of the best teams in the regular season. 4 of the past 5 national champions were the top kenpom team on selection Sunday.

uh_no
01-20-2014, 05:55 PM
Yes and no. They were a reasonably popular pick to make the Final Four (admittedly, this is after the Big East tournament), and Kemba Walker was a first team All American. I guess it depends exactly on how you define the language "out of nowhere," but I'd say that while they were definitely not one of the best teams during the regular season, they don't belong in the same category as Villanova or George Mason or VCU.

At any rate, the "NCAA tournament is flukey" meme is overblown. It's possible to "get hot at the right time" and win the championship, but very unlikely if you weren't one of the best teams in the regular season. 4 of the past 5 national champions were the top kenpom team on selection Sunday.

be careful....the data on kenpom's site is post tournament, I think....can we verify that those rankings were the same before the tournament as well?

TexHawk
01-20-2014, 06:47 PM
be careful....the data on kenpom's site is post tournament, I think....can we verify that those rankings were the same before the tournament as well?

No, which is something I wish Kenpom did. It would be interesting to see how teams fluctuate in his rankings across a full season. Or not fluctuate, which would make his formula almost flawless. I can tell you that Duke did pass KU for #1 in Kenpom just before the tournament started in 2010.

Edouble
01-20-2014, 06:48 PM
Damn Kyrie's Big Toe!!!

Amazing that a tiny piece of a player's body can have such a devastating effect on the season. Gotta say that I tip my hat off to UConn. Along with the 2010 Duke team, that 2011 UConn team is one of the best coached teams. I never liked UConn nor Jim Calhoun, but my God he could coach.

And damn Derrick Williams!!!

I would have loved to put Nolan up against Kemba and have had Coach K and co. take a shot at that UConn team. Any chance for Coach K to take out Calhoun one more time in the NCAAs is now gone. :(

Kedsy
01-20-2014, 08:20 PM
Yes and no. They were a reasonably popular pick to make the Final Four (admittedly, this is after the Big East tournament), and Kemba Walker was a first team All American. I guess it depends exactly on how you define the language "out of nowhere," but I'd say that while they were definitely not one of the best teams during the regular season, they don't belong in the same category as Villanova or George Mason or VCU.

At any rate, the "NCAA tournament is flukey" meme is overblown. It's possible to "get hot at the right time" and win the championship, but very unlikely if you weren't one of the best teams in the regular season. 4 of the past 5 national champions were the top kenpom team on selection Sunday.


be careful....the data on kenpom's site is post tournament, I think....can we verify that those rankings were the same before the tournament as well?

I happen to have kept the Pomeroy rankings as of Selection Sunday on my desktop. The last five KenPom #1 teams on selection Sunday were:

2013: Florida
2012: Kentucky
2011: Ohio State
2010: Duke
2009: Memphis

So, actually, it's 2 out of the last 5, which isn't all that good a predictor.

UConn in 2011 was ranked #17 by Pomeroy on Selection Sunday. I don't remember anybody thinking they were a decent bet for the Final Four.

OldPhiKap
01-20-2014, 08:24 PM
If no one objects, I'll make this the season-long human poll discussion thread. (And if someone does object you can go stuff it, cuz I'm a mod and you're not.)

Is that like The Human Fund and a Festivus Pole, combined?

Cool!

BD80
01-20-2014, 10:37 PM
Is that like The Human Fund and a Festivus Pole, combined?

Cool!

Imagine the Google search results! Yech!

hurleyfor3
01-20-2014, 10:39 PM
Is that like The Human Fund and a Festivus Pole, combined?

Cool!

The only pole that matters is the big one they put up in the DFW Metroplex the first week of April.

OldPhiKap
01-20-2014, 10:45 PM
The only pole that matters is . . . .

Kumiko disagrees.


(Yeah, I know: Worst. Post. Ever.)

Ichabod Drain
01-27-2014, 01:48 PM
Only moved up one spot to #17 in the AP Poll. Michigan jumps up to #10.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings

uh_no
01-27-2014, 01:54 PM
Only moved up one spot to #17 in the AP Poll. Michigan jumps up to #10.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings

cue the whining that we got snubbed.....

while the wins look good from OUR perspective, from the view of the general populace, we beat a mediocre team on the road, and a pretty good team at home....yes they were blowouts, no the voters don't care. we look better, yes, but the voters only see the results....

we passed the two teams that lost, and michigan deservedly jumped way up after two very impressive wins

beating Pitt and cuse could make us next week's michigan

ChillinDuke
01-27-2014, 02:38 PM
cue the whining that we got snubbed.....

while the wins look good from OUR perspective, from the view of the general populace, we beat a mediocre team on the road, and a pretty good team at home....yes they were blowouts, no the voters don't care. we look better, yes, but the voters only see the results....

we passed the two teams that lost, and michigan deservedly jumped way up after two very impressive wins

beating Pitt and cuse could make us next week's michigan

Yeah. More or less as I expected. This past week of results should be (and was) reflected more in a KenPom bump than in a human polls bump.

Makes sense to me.

- Chillin

throatybeard
01-27-2014, 02:40 PM
So, obviously this depends on what the teams ranked 18-25 do, (hopefully, lose a lot), but I'm starting to think we have to split with Pittsburgh and Syracuse to stay in the poll.

Bluedog
01-27-2014, 02:46 PM
cue the whining that we got snubbed.....

while the wins look good from OUR perspective, from the view of the general populace, we beat a mediocre team on the road, and a pretty good team at home....yes they were blowouts, no the voters don't care. we look better, yes, but the voters only see the results....

we passed the two teams that lost, and michigan deservedly jumped way up after two very impressive wins

beating Pitt and cuse could make us next week's michigan

There is some major debate on the MSU vs. Michigan thread on if Michigan's victory was impressive. ;) Apparently, to voters, that's a very resounding YES!

And, yes, I find it interesting (although unsurprising) that how a team looked / margin of victory is downplayed by the voters. When we beat Vermont by 1, we really should have moved down in the polls. And when we absolutely destroy a solid FSU team, you'd think we'd move up more than 1, but that's not how it works. A win is a win and a loss is a loss...(except computer rankings see these things differently, of course).

uh_no
01-27-2014, 03:02 PM
So, obviously this depends on what the teams ranked 18-25 do, (hopefully, lose a lot), but I'm starting to think we have to split with Pittsburgh and Syracuse to stay in the poll.

and rightfully so. 2 losses would put us at 1-4 against the top 25....without a gaudy record (WSU) you need big wins to keep you relevant in the rankings. and we're decidedly short on those so far this year.

further, it would show to the pollsters that our "new look" duke team really isn't that much improved over the team that lost to 4 times already (again, even if it looks like we play more competitively, an L is an L to the voters)

Duvall
01-27-2014, 03:07 PM
and rightfully so. 2 losses would put us at 1-4 against the top 25....without a gaudy record (WSU) you need big wins to keep you relevant in the rankings. and we're decidedly short on those so far this year.

further, it would show to the pollsters that our "new look" duke team really isn't that much improved over the team that lost to 4 times already (again, even if it looks like we play more competitively, an L is an L to the voters)

But it *doesn't* show that. A top 25 team - a top *ten* team - would be *expected* to lose at Pittsburgh and Syracuse. So losing those games would hardly be evidence that Duke does not belong in the top 25.

Could pollsters take it that way? Sure, because the voters are pretty stupid. I mean, they let Seth Davis vote.

sagegrouse
01-27-2014, 03:49 PM
If Duke ends up at or near the top of the ACC regular season -- say, 14-4 -- then we will be securely within the top ten. Everybody else is gonna lose some games as well, and most good teams will lose more than two or three.

If Duke is at or near the top of the regular season and becomes ACC champion by winning the tournament, we are very likely to be a #1 seed.

Wander
01-27-2014, 03:51 PM
But it *doesn't* show that. A top 25 team - a top *ten* team - would be *expected* to lose at Pittsburgh and Syracuse. So losing those games would hardly be evidence that Duke does not belong in the top 25.

I'm not so sure. You're absolutely right that a good team would be expected to lose at Pitt or at Syracuse in one game, but I'm not sure one would expect a really good team to lose both games in a row. That sounds a little counter-intuitive, but you probably know what I mean. My way-too-early guess would be if Duke goes 0-2, we'd have a borderline Top 25 resume, though as throaty points out, it depends on what other teams do as well. Hopefully it's just a moot point.

Duvall
01-27-2014, 03:57 PM
I'm not so sure. You're absolutely right that a good team would be expected to lose at Pitt or at Syracuse in one game, but I'm not sure one would expect a really good team to lose both games in a row. That sounds a little counter-intuitive, but you probably know what I mean. My way-too-early guess would be if Duke goes 0-2, we'd have a borderline Top 25 resume, though as throaty points out, it depends on what other teams do as well. Hopefully it's just a moot point.

Maybe, but Pomeroy ranks Duke 9th in the country and still gives Duke a 50.4% chance of going 0-2 on the road against Pittsburgh and Syracuse. Have to think a team around 20th would face even worse odds.

77devil
01-27-2014, 04:21 PM
Only moved up one spot to #17 in the AP Poll. Michigan jumps up to #10.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings

No love for the ACC either with only one team in the top 15 and Duke as the only non import in the poll. Had the conference not raided the Big East, it would be really down this year. After plucking two of its best, the ACC is still behind the Big East in Sagarin at #5.

vick
01-27-2014, 04:21 PM
Maybe, but Pomeroy ranks Duke 9th in the country and still gives Duke a 50.4% chance of going 0-2 on the road against Pittsburgh and Syracuse. Have to think a team around 20th would face even worse odds.

Not all that much worse, I don't think, just because the difference between 9 and 20 isn't really that large (if I did my spreadsheet correctly, and certainly I might not have, Pomeroy would favor us over #20 ISU by 3 points). That, of course, just strengthens your point about the magnitude of home court advantage. If we were to lose, say, 1 point games at Syracuse and Pitt, and drop out of the top 25, the voters truly are idiots.

Wander
01-27-2014, 04:24 PM
Maybe, but Pomeroy ranks Duke 9th in the country and still gives Duke a 50.4% chance of going 0-2 on the road against Pittsburgh and Syracuse. Have to think a team around 20th would face even worse odds.

Kenpom also thinks Pitt is 5th instead of 18th, so that probably evens out the 9th-20th discrepancy, but still, fair point. I won't be panicked if we lose both games if they're both competitive.

sagegrouse
01-27-2014, 04:30 PM
Maybe, but Pomeroy ranks Duke 9th in the country and still gives Duke a 50.4% chance of going 0-2 on the road against Pittsburgh and Syracuse. Have to think a team around 20th would face even worse odds.

I feel it in my bones that All Day Dre will sink one or both of these interlopers.

MCFinARL
01-27-2014, 04:37 PM
But it *doesn't* show that. A top 25 team - a top *ten* team - would be *expected* to lose at Pittsburgh and Syracuse. So losing those games would hardly be evidence that Duke does not belong in the top 25.

Could pollsters take it that way? Sure, because the voters are pretty stupid. I mean, they let Seth Davis vote.

Nice way to diss the value of a Duke degree! ;)


I feel it in my bones that All Day Dre will sink one or both of these interlopers.

I sure hope so--he is due, if he can get enough opportunities.

jv001
01-27-2014, 04:46 PM
My question is who can step up and be a calming influence in this game? I think Rodney could be that guy. He 's been playing as well as any player in the ACC. He's a captain with college basketball experience even though just a sophomore. I don't think he's afraid of the big stage and he's not afraid to take the big shot. I don't think it will be Quinn because he's been inconsistent lately and I don't think it will Jabari because he has his own problems in getting his shooting back into form. Rasheed could do it, but I don't know if he's ready for that leap yet. I believe someone will have to step up and lead us to a very hard road win tonight. I didn't jinx Marshall and Andre in the FSU game, so I hope I don't jinx Rodney tonight. GoDuke!

pamtar
01-27-2014, 10:54 PM
I feel it in my bones that All Day Dre will sink one or both of these interlopers.

Called it.

JasonEvans
01-28-2014, 12:02 PM
Not sure if anyone cares, but ESPN's power ranking poll (http://espn.go.com/ncb/powerrankings?src=desktop&wjb) just came out and has us at #11, tied with Iowa. We jumped 9 spots in the poll.

-Jason "I am just amazed at the quality of SageGrouse's call earlier in this thread... mad props, my winged friend!" Evans

arnie
01-28-2014, 12:20 PM
Nice way to diss the value of a Duke degree)

Did Seth major in AFAM studies or do we offer that degree?

MCFinARL
01-28-2014, 12:26 PM
Did Seth major in AFAM studies or do we offer that degree?

No idea what Seth Davis majored in, but Duke does offer a major in African and African American Studies--involving real courses taught by instructors who show up and expect the students to as well.

arnie
01-28-2014, 12:35 PM
No idea what Seth Davis majored in, but Duke does offer a major in African and African American Studies--involving real courses taught by instructors who show up and expect the students to as well.

Good to hear- and we probably wouldn't accept transfer credits from Carolina's AFAM program if Hanstravel or Peppers wanted a real degree.

El_Diablo
01-29-2014, 05:54 PM
#3 Florida just got some extra help, as five-star prospect Chris Walker has finally been cleared by the NCAA:

http://college-basketball.si.com/2014/01/29/floridas-gators-chris-walker-cleared-ncaa/?eref=sihp

Des Esseintes
01-30-2014, 02:31 AM
Did Seth major in AFAM studies or do we offer that degree?

<STRIDENCE>Can we please, please, double-please not ridicule the entire concept of African-American Studies on this site? Carolina established fake classes. African-American Studies is 100% legitimate scholarly inquiry. Confusing the two is unfunny at best and... something awful at worst.</STRIDENCE>

BD80
01-30-2014, 07:49 AM
<STRIDENCE>Can we please, please, double-please not ridicule the entire concept of African-American Studies on this site? Carolina established fake classes. African-American Studies is 100% legitimate scholarly inquiry. Confusing the two is unfunny at best and... something awful at worst.</STRIDENCE>

I have done some serious post-graduate study in Scottish-American Studies.

I have found many good instructors are named Glen

Troublemaker
02-01-2014, 02:12 PM
Couple links I like to use:

Bracket Matrix compiles and averages a bunch of brackets created by mostly humans like Lunardi:
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Right now, it looks like Duke is a 3 seed. That would change immediately with a win tonight at Syracuse, of course.

RPI Forecast uses Sagarin predictor to simulate the rest of the season and forecast the final RPI standings:
http://www.rpiforecast.com/index2.html

Right now Duke projects to be the #3 RPI team according to this method, behind Arizona and Kansas.

(RPI is not dorky enough and is probably considered by dorks to be anti-dork, so this link belongs in this thread, not the dork thread)

Troublemaker
02-01-2014, 02:21 PM
Right now Duke projects to be the #3 RPI team according to this method, behind Arizona and Kansas.


Actually, looking it over, this isn't well stated by me. We have an average projection of an RPI rank of 6.6, which gives us the 3rd-highest average projection. How does that make sense? Randomness / variability.