pfrduke
01-13-2014, 10:04 AM
Early returns in conference play (and looking only at conference play) look something like this - Syracuse and Pitt have made an impressive entry (although Syracuse's is schedule-aided, something that will continue until Saturday); Virginia, and to a lesser extent Florida State (to a lesser extent only because Virginia wiped the floor with them in Tallahassee), have been the best of the holdovers; Tobacco Road has yet to get its footing, with the teams sporting a collective 3-9 mark and North Carolina all by its lonesome in 15th place (ha!). Each of the top 5 teams in the conference standings is on the road in mid-week action, so there's a chance some may fall back to the pack (although those road games present varying degrees of difficulty).
Monday starts off with Virginia getting what should be its most competitive game in conference to date. Teams simply are not scoring on the Cavaliers in conference play. Wake's 51 is the highest opponent output, and all told Virginia has held opponents to 146 points in 196 possessions. Oh, and 2 of those 3 games have been on the road.* That's silly. Most of this performance has been built off of field goal defense - the Cavs' opponents are collectively 36-104 (34.6%) from 2 and 10-41 (24.4%) from 3 - but, somewhat unusually for a pack line team, Virginia has also been turning opponents over at a high rate, with 47 TOs forced, nearly 1 every 4 possessions. For good measure, opponents have gathered in only 27 of the 98 available rebounds. Virginia travels to face a Duke team that suddenly seems to be having issues on the offensive side of the ball. Duke's performance in Clemson was its worst offensive output of the season, the first time that Duke was more than a basket below a point per possession (and only the third time below 1.1 points per possession all season). Duke needs to get its confidence back on offense, and Virginia is not a team you want to see when your offense lacks in confidence. In other Monday action, Syracuse travels to BC. It's been a really easy opening stretch for the Orange, starting with Miami, Virginia Tech, UNC, and now BC (a collection of 4 teams that are winless in conference playing anyone other than each other).
*Oddly enough, assuming Virginia simply stayed in the Triangle after Saturday's game, Duke has had more travel to get back for its home game than the road team from another state.
[23]Duke hosts [16]Virginia (7, ESPN)
[156]Boston College hosts [3]Syracuse (9, ESPNU)
Tuesday puts Pitt on the road against a Georgia Tech team coming off of 3 good halves in its last 4 (the 4th was a drubbing). By all rights Pitt should be ranked by the time this game is played, but who really knows.
[123]Georgia Tech hosts [6]Pittsburgh (9, ESPNU)
Wednesday has a lot of activity, but it's a somewhat uninspiring slate. Clemson travels to Virginia Tech. Teams that want to contend in conference must win at Blacksburg - the Hokies are not a good team. Maryland hosts a Notre Dame team that's looked a lot more like what people expected without Jerian Grant over the past week. Florida State travels to Miami to see if it can continue its winning ways after being +39 for last week. And Wake hosts NC State, which means one of the Tobacco Road teams has to win!
[70]Maryland hosts [76]Notre Dame (7, ESPN2)
[153]Virginia Tech hosts [37]Clemson (7, ESPN3)
[69]Miami hosts [18]Florida State (9, ESPN3)
[84]Wake Forest hosts [94]NC State (9, ESPN3)
Thursday and Friday are dark.
Saturday is headlined by Syracuse-Pitt, and it's fitting the way this season has played out to date that the biggest conference game thus far is a matchup of former Big East teams. There's a very competitive undercard as well, with Virginia and Florida State already running back their earlier meeting (a 12-point UVA win), this time in Charlottesville. UNC takes the court at noon again, and should no longer be winless by 2, as they take on a 5-11 Boston College team whose sole conference win is by 3 over Virginia Tech. Duke hosts State - another guaranteed Tobacco Road win! - and you'd be lying if you said the thought of TJ Warren going against Duke's frontcourt defense didn't cause you concern. In other action, Miami goes to Georgia Tech and Clemson hosts Wake. The Tigers need to be 4-1 at the end of this week, because they have a brutal stretch following the Wake game (3 straight on the road, at Pitt, UNC, and FSU).
[16]Virginia hosts [18]Florida State (12, ESPN3)
[38]North Carolina hosts [156]Boston College (12, ESPN)
[23]Duke hosts [94]NC State (2, CBS)
[123]Georgia Tech hosts [69]Miami (2, ESPN3)
[3]Syracuse hosts [6]Pittsburgh (4, ESPN)
[37]Clemson hosts [84]Wake Forest (4, ESPN3)
Sunday Notre Dame hosts Virginia Tech. Yawn. One of these weeks there will be a good Sunday night matchup.
[76]Notre Dame hosts [153]Virginia Tech (6, ESPNU)
ACC Non-Conference Record: 138-53
ACC Record vs. BCS: 29-33
Monday starts off with Virginia getting what should be its most competitive game in conference to date. Teams simply are not scoring on the Cavaliers in conference play. Wake's 51 is the highest opponent output, and all told Virginia has held opponents to 146 points in 196 possessions. Oh, and 2 of those 3 games have been on the road.* That's silly. Most of this performance has been built off of field goal defense - the Cavs' opponents are collectively 36-104 (34.6%) from 2 and 10-41 (24.4%) from 3 - but, somewhat unusually for a pack line team, Virginia has also been turning opponents over at a high rate, with 47 TOs forced, nearly 1 every 4 possessions. For good measure, opponents have gathered in only 27 of the 98 available rebounds. Virginia travels to face a Duke team that suddenly seems to be having issues on the offensive side of the ball. Duke's performance in Clemson was its worst offensive output of the season, the first time that Duke was more than a basket below a point per possession (and only the third time below 1.1 points per possession all season). Duke needs to get its confidence back on offense, and Virginia is not a team you want to see when your offense lacks in confidence. In other Monday action, Syracuse travels to BC. It's been a really easy opening stretch for the Orange, starting with Miami, Virginia Tech, UNC, and now BC (a collection of 4 teams that are winless in conference playing anyone other than each other).
*Oddly enough, assuming Virginia simply stayed in the Triangle after Saturday's game, Duke has had more travel to get back for its home game than the road team from another state.
[23]Duke hosts [16]Virginia (7, ESPN)
[156]Boston College hosts [3]Syracuse (9, ESPNU)
Tuesday puts Pitt on the road against a Georgia Tech team coming off of 3 good halves in its last 4 (the 4th was a drubbing). By all rights Pitt should be ranked by the time this game is played, but who really knows.
[123]Georgia Tech hosts [6]Pittsburgh (9, ESPNU)
Wednesday has a lot of activity, but it's a somewhat uninspiring slate. Clemson travels to Virginia Tech. Teams that want to contend in conference must win at Blacksburg - the Hokies are not a good team. Maryland hosts a Notre Dame team that's looked a lot more like what people expected without Jerian Grant over the past week. Florida State travels to Miami to see if it can continue its winning ways after being +39 for last week. And Wake hosts NC State, which means one of the Tobacco Road teams has to win!
[70]Maryland hosts [76]Notre Dame (7, ESPN2)
[153]Virginia Tech hosts [37]Clemson (7, ESPN3)
[69]Miami hosts [18]Florida State (9, ESPN3)
[84]Wake Forest hosts [94]NC State (9, ESPN3)
Thursday and Friday are dark.
Saturday is headlined by Syracuse-Pitt, and it's fitting the way this season has played out to date that the biggest conference game thus far is a matchup of former Big East teams. There's a very competitive undercard as well, with Virginia and Florida State already running back their earlier meeting (a 12-point UVA win), this time in Charlottesville. UNC takes the court at noon again, and should no longer be winless by 2, as they take on a 5-11 Boston College team whose sole conference win is by 3 over Virginia Tech. Duke hosts State - another guaranteed Tobacco Road win! - and you'd be lying if you said the thought of TJ Warren going against Duke's frontcourt defense didn't cause you concern. In other action, Miami goes to Georgia Tech and Clemson hosts Wake. The Tigers need to be 4-1 at the end of this week, because they have a brutal stretch following the Wake game (3 straight on the road, at Pitt, UNC, and FSU).
[16]Virginia hosts [18]Florida State (12, ESPN3)
[38]North Carolina hosts [156]Boston College (12, ESPN)
[23]Duke hosts [94]NC State (2, CBS)
[123]Georgia Tech hosts [69]Miami (2, ESPN3)
[3]Syracuse hosts [6]Pittsburgh (4, ESPN)
[37]Clemson hosts [84]Wake Forest (4, ESPN3)
Sunday Notre Dame hosts Virginia Tech. Yawn. One of these weeks there will be a good Sunday night matchup.
[76]Notre Dame hosts [153]Virginia Tech (6, ESPNU)
ACC Non-Conference Record: 138-53
ACC Record vs. BCS: 29-33