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Troublemaker
01-06-2014, 12:32 PM
Hey guys, let's see where Duke fan confidence stands.

Please vote in this poll. You can offer analysis in the thread or not, but let's see your vote.

If you offer analysis, please feel free to hedge, i.e. "I predict a record of X. But if Y occurs, I would predict a record of Z." But please vote. You see, the point of this poll is to figure out just how confident you are that Y will happen. I hope that makes sense.

Don't worry. If your prediction is wrong, nobody will drag this thread up at the end of the season to make fun of it. But if you get it right, feel free to brag about it if you want.

And yes, of course, luck plays a major factor. A buzzer-beater here, a bad shooting night from FT range there, can swing a game. If you predict the record to within 1 game of actual, that's a very good result.

This exercise is purely for Duke fans to get a feel of where we stand confidence-wise. The more people who vote, the better a feel we'll have. (And if you vote without first checking to see what other people voted, that helps provide better data as well.)

Poll closes Wednesday around noon.

flyingdutchdevil
01-06-2014, 01:41 PM
13-5 is a popular choice. Seems very reasonable given the status of this team.

Unfortunately, [xxx]-7 is definitely not 1-seed material and probably not a 2-seed. You know what? I like that. I wanna be an underdog when we beat the hell out of Wisconsin on route to the Final Four.

Dev11
01-06-2014, 01:42 PM
Hey markbdevil, you ok there? Why the long face on Duke's prospects?

Matches
01-06-2014, 02:30 PM
I'm going with 18-0. I know we already have a loss, but I assume we will play so well for the rest of the season that it will be retroactively erased.

Or failing that, 13-5.

Kfanarmy
01-06-2014, 02:46 PM
I see Duke losing on the road at ND (clairvoyant I know), Syracuse, Pitt and one of [Clemson, Maryland and Wake]. I see them losing at home to Syracuse and one of [Pitt Wake]. UNC-CH is so unpredictable that its hard to say what team will show up on any given night...could sweep, split or be swept depending on who shows up. May seem like a lot of losses down the road, but unless the defense can gel a bit better, any off night on O, may lead to another loss.

bob blue devil
01-06-2014, 03:01 PM
14-4. We have a seemingly great, but at present underachieving, team. Maybe I'm too optimistic that we improve some. I had substantially higher expectations at the start of the season.

flyingdutchdevil
01-06-2014, 03:08 PM
14-4. We have a seemingly great, but at present underachieving, team. Maybe I'm too optimistic that we improve some. I had substantially higher expectations at the start of the season.

Completely 100% agree (except I went with a 13-5 record). I've been a Duke fan for 11 years now (not much compared to a lot of talent on these boards) and this is one the few times, if not the only time, where I feel that Duke has underachieved. That isn't Coach K-like. He often overachieves, often with talent that isn't that talented compared to a lot of the other big dogs.

This team? Very strange. When you look at the individual players, it's impressive: one of the top offensive players in the country, one of top PGs, one of the top 2nd bananas, one of the top 3pt shooters, plethora of slashers and athletic wings, a 7-footer with 2+ years in the program who has the right (and proven) genes, an effective rebounding 4/5, 3 seniors with leadership and communication skills...the list goes on.

Not sure what to make of it. It's "interesting". That's what I'll call it.

Troublemaker
01-06-2014, 03:09 PM
Thanks for voting, guys.

Predictions definitely appear to be coalescing around 13-5. It is the most predicted record AND the next two most popular predictions are 1 win away in either direction from 13-5.

I would say the poll shows that, despite starting out 0-1, we still have a healthy confidence in this team (and/or perhaps not much confidence in the rest of the ACC).

Troublemaker
01-06-2014, 03:15 PM
Completely 100% agree (except I went with a 13-5 record). I've been a Duke fan for 11 years now (not much compared to a lot of talent on these boards) and this is one the few times, if not the only time, where I feel that Duke has underachieved. That isn't Coach K-like. He often overachieves, often with talent that isn't that talented compared to a lot of the other big dogs.

Perhaps, given more time, the interpretation for what has occurred so far this season will be that it took a young team awhile to completely reach its ceiling, which would be perfectly understandable. Hopefully by March that's how we will feel about what has occurred so far.

Duvall
01-06-2014, 03:18 PM
Thanks for voting, guys.

Predictions definitely appear to be coalescing around 13-5. It is the most predicted record AND the next two most popular predictions are 1 win away in either direction from 13-5.

I would say the poll shows that, despite starting out 0-1, we still have a healthy confidence in this team (and/or perhaps not much confidence in the rest of the ACC).

Well, Duke only has two games left against currently ranked teams, and a third against Pitt. So it may not take much confidence to be confident.

Troublemaker
01-06-2014, 03:35 PM
Well, Duke only has two games left against currently ranked teams, and a third against Pitt. So it may not take much confidence to be confident.

True, it could just be a lack of confidence in the ACC. But, I would say either we're giving a depleted Notre Dame team a lot of credit (which I think is the right thing to do), or we're projecting that Duke on the road will perform on average better than we did in South Bend against mediocre or worse teams.

Re: Notre Dame, let's see how their season plays out from here. Wouldn't be surprised if they finish above .500 in the ACC despite the loss of their best player Grant.

Bluedog
01-06-2014, 03:54 PM
Kenpom predicts us to go 12-6 with us being underdogs at @Clemson, @Cuse, @Pitt, and @UNC. He had us as having a 53% chance of winning @ND, basically a Pick 'Em. I think 12-6 sounds reasonable; a few losses on the road and a couple at home. I think 13-5 is also achievable and would set us up nicely for the ACC/NCAA tournaments. 14-4 is definitely optimistic, but anything can happen - I have confidence in this team! Duke's ACC schedule is not that easy - although it's nice that we don't have to take on UVa and FSU on the road (but @Pitt, @Cuse, and @UNC is tough)

CDu
01-06-2014, 03:58 PM
Kenpom predicts us to go 12-6 with us being underdogs at @Clemson, @Cuse, @Pitt, and @UNC. He had us as having a 53% chance of winning @ND, basically a Pick 'Em. I think 12-6 sounds reasonable; a few losses on the road and a couple at home. I think 13-5 is also achievable and would set us up nicely for the ACC/NCAA tournaments. 14-4 is definitely optimistic, but anything can happen - I have confidence in this team! Duke's ACC schedule is not that easy - the breaks we got are that we don't have to take on UVa and FSU on the road.

Yeah, I went with 12-6, so it's nice to hear that Pomeroy agrees with me. :)

I'd love to see us get to 14-4 or 15-3, but unless we play much better than we have I just can't see it. I fear that consistency may be a recurring problem for this team.

pfrduke
01-06-2014, 04:15 PM
True, it could just be a lack of confidence in the ACC. But, I would say either we're giving a depleted Notre Dame team a lot of credit (which I think is the right thing to do), or we're projecting that Duke on the road will perform on average better than we did in South Bend against mediocre or worse teams.

Re: Notre Dame, let's see how their season plays out from here. Wouldn't be surprised if they finish above .500 in the ACC despite the loss of their best player Grant.

Our road schedule isn't that bad. We have Syracuse, Pitt, and UNC, which should be tough, and we've already picked up an L at Notre Dame. But the rest, in order of difficulty, are Clemson, Wake, Miami, Georgia Tech, and BC. Avoiding FSU, Virginia, and Maryland - reasonably tough teams in arenas where we've had our issues in recent years - helps avoid likely losses.

At home, the toughest tests are Syracuse and UNC. The rest, while always potential losses, don't give me any heartburn.

I think we win one of our three toughest road games. I think we lose one of our two toughest home games. I think we win the rest. 14-4.

weezie
01-06-2014, 05:35 PM
Hey guys, let's see where Duke fan confidence stands.


Troublemaker! You are indeed a troublemaker!

It makes me scaredy to vote! :eek:

I get all anxious and itchy....

dukelifer
01-06-2014, 08:26 PM
Optimistic at 13-5 but picked 12-6. Lots of work to do. Duke has to share the ball more. The hope is to peak late.

CatDevil
01-06-2014, 08:35 PM
I don't follow any kenpom anything so I have no idea what all that means. I just made a guess and I got my 11 year old to offer insight. His guess is as good as mine.... I hope we are much better that the 14-4 we chose. The crazy ups and downs the teams are having, who knows what will happen??

Two things we both know.... 1. win or lose we love our team:D 2. Beat UNC 9F!!!

Go Duke!

Dukehky
01-06-2014, 10:08 PM
17-1

Why not, right?

vick
01-06-2014, 10:24 PM
13-5 is a popular choice. Seems very reasonable given the status of this team.

Unfortunately, [xxx]-7 is definitely not 1-seed material and probably not a 2-seed. You know what? I like that. I wanna be an underdog when we beat the hell out of Wisconsin on route to the Final Four.

Yes on the 1-seed, but 2-seed is doable. In the last four years alone:

Kansas State 2010: 26-7
Ohio State 2010: 27-7
Villanova 2010: 24-7
UNC 2011: 26-7
Florida 2011: 26-7
Ohio State 2012: 27-7
Michigan State 2012 (a 1 seed!): 27-7
Ohio State 2013: 26-7

I'm not saying I'd bet on a 7-loss Duke team being a 2-seed, but it wouldn't be a shocker, especially if they won the conference tournament. I hope it doesn't come down to that, of course.

Newton_14
01-06-2014, 11:01 PM
OK so I recognize that there is much work to be done to get these guys playing to the level they can achieve, and they will likely drop a few more games in conference, but the person with the "3-15 or worse" prediction (markbdevil) has some splainin to do. 3-15 or worse? Really dude? Why don't you dial up Vegas and put a cool $10K on that one....


I went with 14-4 for much the same reason as pfrduke. This is still a good team that can get a lot better over the next 17 games. I thought Troublemaker had the best post in the ND post-game thread, pointing out, that despite all the wailing an knashing of teeth over the lack of interior size, ND had to abandon their big lineup that was punishing us so badly they (ND) were losing by 10, (before hitting a 3) and had to change to their small lineup which won the game for them.

Lot of season remaining. My range would be anywhere from 12-7 to 15-3, but I was the most comfortable with the 14-4 prediction.

sporthenry
01-06-2014, 11:32 PM
Yes on the 1-seed, but 2-seed is doable. In the last four years alone:

Kansas State 2010: 26-7
Ohio State 2010: 27-7
Villanova 2010: 24-7
UNC 2011: 26-7
Florida 2011: 26-7
Ohio State 2012: 27-7
Michigan State 2012 (a 1 seed!): 27-7
Ohio State 2013: 26-7

I'm not saying I'd bet on a 7-loss Duke team being a 2-seed, but it wouldn't be a shocker, especially if they won the conference tournament. I hope it doesn't come down to that, of course.

It might be possible but this year is shaping up as a weird year. While I don't think Wichita State or Villanova are that good, neither play another ranked team. Neither does SDSU. And while the committee usually takes a more holistic view than the polls, tough to put a 5-7 loss team ahead of a 1 or 3 loss team. Beyond that, the ACC is very weak with just 2 ranked teams. Not a lot of chances to get signature wins and if teams in the Big 10 or Big 12 just beat up on each other, I could see them holding ground in the polls b/c a loss to a top 5-10 team won't drop them much.

Dukehky
01-06-2014, 11:45 PM
Prediction? 17-1 ain't no prediction. It's what it's gonna be!

Easy down there Swanny.

jv001
01-07-2014, 07:15 AM
I predicted a 14-4 conference record for Duke and I'm basing that on Jabari and Rodney playing better defense. They are too good not to play better D. It's got to be mental, because they are athletic enough to play very good defense. My take, which means nothing. GoDuke!

markbdevil
01-07-2014, 08:32 AM
Hey markbdevil, you ok there? Why the long face on Duke's prospects?

Just my opinion, check back in March. Hope everyone is laughing at my prediction.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
01-07-2014, 08:35 AM
I voted 14-4 but nothing north of .500 wpuld surprise me. Some say the team has "underacheived" to date, but I look at that same team and say there is tremendous potential. We are largely young and have lots of minutes going to inexperienced players. If we have plateaued, it will be a long conference season. If we continue to learn and make progress, our ceiling is something really special.

In recent years, I have felt Duke got out of the gate very strong and other teams caught up throughout the season. This is not the case this season. I hope that we make great strides in the next two months and establish ourselves as one of the strongest teams in the nation.

Go Duke!

kAzE
01-07-2014, 09:02 AM
I voted 14-4, but now that I think about it, 13-5 seems reasonable as well. We're not going to sweep Syracuse, they are just too good, and their defense is exactly the type that can create nightmares for our team. Everyone knows about their great front court, but their back court of Ennis and Cooney is one of the best in the nation, and it's going to be a tough assignment to keep those guys under control. So there's at least 1 loss there, perhaps 2. It seems like we always drop a couple of random road games to teams we should beat, so counting ND plus 1 more. (On the road at Virginia might be tough) Then UNC . . . we rarely sweep them. It seems cliche, but more often than not, records go out the window when we play them, so there's another loss. If we split the series against Syracuse, we'll probably go 14-4, if they sweep us, probably 13-5. No matter what, if we win the tournament, I think we'll probably have a good shot at a #2 seed, #3 at worst. I still stand by 14-4 though. The Syracuse game at Cameron will be the biggest game of the regular season. I have to imagine our guys will get up for that one.

However, I just don't see a situation where we aren't a significantly better team in 2 months' time. We're going to have as good a shot as anyone at winning the ACC tournament. If this team can play reasonably well on defense and cut down on the dumb mistakes, suddenly, we're talking about a really scary team. In my opinion, we played a horrendous game offensively against ND, and still scored 77. We've got multiple guys that can flat-out get buckets. Not many teams have even 1 of those guys. There's way too much potential on this roster to have plateaued already. We can't possibly still be making the same mistakes on defense for the next 2 months. I'm still a believer.

pfrduke
01-07-2014, 09:12 AM
(On the road at Virginia might be tough)

I 100% guarantee we will not lose on the road in the state of Virginia this year.

kAzE
01-07-2014, 11:27 AM
I 100% guarantee we will not lose on the road in the state of Virginia this year.

Actually you're right, since we don't play Virginia in Charlottesville this year.

Lar77
01-07-2014, 11:54 AM
I went with 14-4. We have Pitt, Syracuse, and UNC (who knows what team they'll bring) as tough road games. Wake always plays us tough at the Joel, but I don't think they can pull the upset. I don't see us losing those 3 road games, but I think it's going to be tough to go undefeated at home this year. If we start to play defense like we did against UCLA on a consistent basis, life is good. If we allow 4 in-bound baskets again, this is a long season.

Selover
01-07-2014, 03:45 PM
I didn't see 18-0 listed among the choices for some reason, so I elected to go with 17-1 as it was the next best choice. :rolleyes:

YmoBeThere
01-11-2014, 04:06 PM
Well, 4 people are now out of the running.

markbdevil
01-11-2014, 04:09 PM
Well, 4 people are now out of the running.

My prediction still looks good

dubldvman
01-11-2014, 04:12 PM
[QUOTE=YmoBeThere;693376]Well, 4 people are now out of the running.

I predict 11-9 if we are lucky. Just cannot stop anyone from scoring without fouling.

bbosbbos
01-11-2014, 04:15 PM
Have to change my prediction now. We will be max 7-11 in acc if we do not improve

jv001
01-11-2014, 04:29 PM
Now, how many road games do we have left, lol? GoDuke!

Gthoma2a
01-11-2014, 04:29 PM
My question is do we make the tournament and how much of it is because of the letters on the front of our jerseys. If we aren't going to play harder than this, we will need those letters to mean something to the selection committee.

Kfanarmy
01-11-2014, 04:34 PM
I see Duke losing on the road at ND (clairvoyant I know), Syracuse, Pitt and one of [Clemson, Maryland and Wake]. I see them losing at home to Syracuse and one of [Pitt Wake]. UNC-CH is so unpredictable that its hard to say what team will show up on any given night...could sweep, split or be swept depending on who shows up. May seem like a lot of losses down the road, but unless the defense can gel a bit better, any off night on O, may lead to another loss. Right so far...unfortunately

throatybeard
01-11-2014, 05:19 PM
I keep waiting for Ozzie to vote for 18-0 even though we're 1-2.

devildeac
01-11-2014, 05:54 PM
I keep waiting for Ozzie to vote for 18-0 even though we're 1-2.

Funny you should mention that. I spoke with Ozzie about 30 minutes ago and he's considering a "change" to 16-2;). But he's also considering a change to a far, far less optimistic prognostication. But I'll let him disclose that...

Cameron
01-11-2014, 05:55 PM
I'd say 10 or 11 wins would be a giant success at this point, and as good a number for which we can probably hope. Realistically, this is a team that, because of how badly it will get outplayed most nights defensively and on the boards (not to mention mentally), could tread dangerously in .500 waters all year long.

Losses: @Notre Dame, @Clemson, @Miami, @Pitt, @Syracuse, UNC (either home or away), and one more to either Florida State/Kansas at home.

So 11-7. But I don't feel that confident about it. Man, I am depressed.

arnie
01-11-2014, 06:18 PM
I'd say 10 or 11 wins would be a giant success at this point, and as good a number for which we can probably hope. Realistically, this is a team that, because of how badly it will get outplayed most nights defensively and on the boards (not to mention mentally), could tread dangerously in .500 waters all year long.

Losses: @Notre Dame, @Clemson, @Miami, @Pitt, @Syracuse, UNC (either home or away), and one more to either Florida State/Kansas at home.

So 11-7. But I don't feel that confident about it. Man, I am depressed.

Consider lowering your expectations - I have. Without MP we have no post presence and K would play him if he thought he'd contribute. Other smallish Duke teams played good perimeter D which led to more victories. A switch to zone might help, but we know that's not happening. I'm going to appreciate the wins this year, similar to the 95-96 and 96-97 seasons (with no expectations).

_Gary
01-11-2014, 06:42 PM
Consider lowering your expectations - I have. Without MP we have no post presence and K would play him if he thought he'd contribute. Other smallish Duke teams played good perimeter D which led to more victories. A switch to zone might help, but we know that's not happening. I'm going to appreciate the wins this year, similar to the 95-96 and 96-97 seasons (with no expectations).

While it seems almost inconceivable (yes, I know what that word means, LOL) to think of this team in terms of the '95/'96 and '96/'97 ones simply because the talent level dictates something much better, I'm beginning to consider this as a possibility. Perhaps the reality is that we aren't as strong at a couple of key positions that we thought we were. At this point I think we have talent, but it's not the kind of talent that can play the style the staff want it play. If there isn't a miraculous turnaround, I'd say 10-8 is about as good as it gets.

CDu
01-11-2014, 06:48 PM
I voted 12-6 prior to the Tech game. At the time I was thinking 12-6 or 13-5. Now I am leaning toward 12-6 or 11-7.

This is a tourney team. But they have a LONG way to go to being a team to make a deep tourney run. Hopefully the staff and the team are up for the challenge.

FerryFor50
01-11-2014, 06:57 PM
I voted 13-5. I still think that is possible, but I could see 12-6 or 11-7 as well. I could see UVA beating Duke in Cameron...

The ACC is looking to be pretty weird this year. Syracuse is the only team that is predictable. ND beat Duke, loses to GT, who Duke beat. Wake beats UNC but gets throttled by UVA. UVA is destroying a NCSU team that hung with Pitt, who also looks like a tough team to beat.

YmoBeThere
01-11-2014, 08:06 PM
It is turning into a weird season in the ACC, that is why I put 10-8. This team has some very interesting parts, but the totality has certainly been less than the sum.

Dukehky
01-11-2014, 11:06 PM
I put 17-1. I was wrong. I predict 16-2 now. Why not, right?

gofurman
01-12-2014, 04:22 PM
I put 17-1. I was wrong. I predict 16-2 now. Why not, right?

honestly - I would take 12-6 right now. Without hesitation. I say 11-7. And that wouldn't be too bad. Just not feeling good right now - I was at the Clemson game in person. It was NNNNNNOOOOOOOOOTTTTTTTT pretty. We made guys like Landry Noko look strong.

DukieInBrasil
01-12-2014, 05:24 PM
honestly - I would take 12-6 right now. Without hesitation. I say 11-7. And that wouldn't be too bad. Just not feeling good right now - I was at the Clemson game in person. It was NNNNNNOOOOOOOOOTTTTTTTT pretty. We made guys like Landry Noko look strong.

That was due to poor decision making (on offense) by driving right into him or for him to come over and weak-side block shots and (on strategy) using Parker as the C on defense who is substantially shorter and lighter than Nnoko. For the game, Nnoko scored about double his average and about doubled his rpg.

wsb3
01-12-2014, 05:29 PM
I would take 11-7 and truthfully probably 10-8. I hope I am wrong and if so feel free to pull this up and rub it in my face.

RoyalBlue08
01-12-2014, 06:13 PM
I still have faith that the coaching staff and players will figure something out between now and the end of the season, so if I had to guess today I would still say 12-6. I don't think they could get to that mark without significant improvement however.

Gthoma2a
01-12-2014, 06:33 PM
Unless teams start laying down for us, I would say that 9-9 is in our sights (that may be generous). We have a win percentage of .333 and we haven't even gotten into the meat of the conference (one of the teams we lost to was without its best player and the other was on short rest from being throttled by a mediocre FSU team). I hope not, but I think we could be in a world of hurt.

ice-9
01-12-2014, 11:34 PM
This is a team that will lose more before the "click," and win everything after it. Assuming it happens at all of course.

I wavered between 13 or 14 wins before deciding to be on the optimistic side. After the Clemson game, I'd still be OK with a 13-5 vote. @Pitt and @Syracuse are the likely losses, and then one more at Cameron for five losses before Duke finds its identity and goes on a run.

Troublemaker
03-09-2014, 11:27 AM
Congrats to the 13-5'ers!

Your safe prediction came true. ;)

/bitter

OZZIE4DUKE
03-09-2014, 11:40 AM
And now, just like 2010, a ten game winning streak to end the season! LGD, GTHc!

ice-9
03-09-2014, 12:30 PM
Congrats to the 13-5'ers!

Your safe prediction came true. ;)

/bitter


Dang you Wake Forest! That wasn't supposed to happen!!

MCFinARL
03-09-2014, 01:43 PM
Congrats to the 13-5'ers!

Your safe prediction came true. ;)

/bitter

As one of those "safe" 13-5'ers, I have to say this sure isn't how I thought Duke would hit that mark. Anybody who correctly predicted the exact 5 games we would lose, and only those games, should be playing for Warren Buffet's billion.

Jarhead
03-10-2014, 11:21 AM
My guess was 14-4 which seems to be within the standard deviation. What that means is that our expectations were met. Next year I'll know better. I'll predict a much better ACC season. If we all do that, the team will, too. Okay?http://crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/wizard.gif

timmy c
03-10-2014, 12:24 PM
I went with 14-4. We have Pitt, Syracuse, and UNC (who knows what team they'll bring) as tough road games. Wake always plays us tough at the Joel, but I don't think they can pull the upset. I don't see us losing those 3 road games, but I think it's going to be tough to go undefeated at home this year. If we start to play defense like we did against UCLA on a consistent basis, life is good. If we allow 4 in-bound baskets again, this is a long season.

Kudos to Lars for naming the wake game even if he hedged a little by saying they wouldn't win.

flyingdutchdevil
03-10-2014, 01:02 PM
As one of those "safe" 13-5'ers, I have to say this sure isn't how I thought Duke would hit that mark. Anybody who correctly predicted the exact 5 games we would lose, and only those games, should be playing for Warren Buffet's billion.

I too went with 13-5. After ND and Clemson, I though we were going to lose to Pitt, @Cus, and another away game.

If you told me that we'd lose to @UNC and @WF as part of the 13-5 record, I would have laughed in your face and bet you $1,000.

CDu
03-10-2014, 01:24 PM
I too went with 13-5. After ND and Clemson, I though we were going to lose to Pitt, @Cus, and another away game.

If you told me that we'd lose to @UNC and @WF as part of the 13-5 record, I would have laughed in your face and bet you $1,000.

I went with 12-6, thinking we'd lose @Syracuse, @ UNC, @Pitt, and possibly one of the home games versus Syracuse, UVa, or UNC. So the win over Pitt was a pleasant surprise, the loss at Wake offset that Pitt win, and the combined performances at home against the other top teams was an aggregate pleasant surprise.

All in all, from where we were back in January, I'm quite pleased with 13-5, even if it means only third in the conference.

jv001
03-10-2014, 05:03 PM
Dang you Wake Forest! That wasn't supposed to happen!!

That's it! I wondered why the Wake loss hurt me so much. Now I know, our poor performance messed my prediction up. I had that 14-4 locked up :cool: GoDuke!