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Bob Green
01-03-2014, 03:09 PM
Phase III will be the six conference games starting with the contest at Notre Dame tomorrow afternoon (January 4 /4 pm/CBS) and ending at Miami on January 22 (7:30 pm/ESPN2). The six games are split even with three on the road and three in the comfortable confines of Cameron Indoor Stadium. Duke heads into this phase sporting an 11-2 record and ranked nationally at #7. Here are the questions I beileve need answering over the first six conference games:

1. Can the team maintain its HEALTH?

This team has the skill and depth to handle a player missing a game or two here or there, but losing any of the Top Eight players for an extended stretch would be a problem. The pieces are there for Coach Krzyzewski to mold into a formidable team so let's hope he has all the pieces all the time. As always, staying healthy will be huge.

2. Is the ROTATION set?

The rotation has solidified with the following eight players: Parker, Hood, Cook, Thornton, Hairston, Jefferson, Dawkins and Sulaimon, rising to the top. Plumlee, Jones and Ojeleye will fight for mop up minutes or be situational substitutes from this point forward. I don't think there is a lot to discuss here...yeah, right...famous last words. This is DBR, we discuss the rotation in May as well as September so we certainly are going to debate it in January.

The main question in my mind re the rotation is whether or not Thornton and Hairston hold on to their starting role going forward. The experience they bring onto the court seems to help the defense, but we are a more explosive offensive team with Sulaimon or Dawkins playing shooting guard over Thornton, while Jefferson is a much better rebounder than Hairston. However, due to their communication skills and knowledge of defensive rotations, it will be tough to keep Thornton and Hairston out of the starting line-up.

There are lots of little things to watch with the rotation during Phase III, but I am confident the staff has achieved a comfort level over the early season games so the tinkering will transition to fine tuning.

3. Can DAWKINS be a consistent force off the bench?

It is easy to get excited when Dawkins sinks six 3-PT Field Goals and scores 20 points against Eastern Michigan; however, it is games such as his three points in four minutes against Arizona, three points in seven minutes against UCLA, zero points in eight minutes against Alabama that make me pause.

I am a huge Dawkins fan so I really hope he finds consistency and is the zone buster we all want him to be this season. Phase III should tell us a lot in regard to Dawkins' quest to be a consistent contributor. If opponents insist on throwing zone defenses at us, his chances are solid. The young man can flat out shoot!

4. Can the DEFENSE avoid late game collapses?

Quality opponents Kansas and Arizona ran away from us late in the game. Have adjustments been made? Or will this be a problem against tough teams throughout the season? A huge question for Phase III in my mind.

5. Can Parker and Hood avoid FOUL TROUBLE?

Will Jabari Parker and/or Rodney Hood have issues with fouls once conference play begins? Parker and Hood are the two irreplaceable pieces in my opinion who need to play 30+ minutes per game. Yes, Cook is equally important, but Tyler Thornton is a solid back-up and Rasheed Sulaimon is available to run the point in a pinch. No one can step into the line-up and do the things Parker and Hood can do.

ACC coaches are more familiar with how Duke plays so I expect those coaches to utilize their familiarity to go at Parker and Hood in order to try and get them in foul trouble and off the court.

6. Will FREE THROWS be a strength?

Duke is making 71.8% of their attempts from the charity stripe, which is about the same as last season. This year's performance also compares favorably with our championship seasons: 1991 (72.6%); 1992 (74.8%); 2001 (69.6%); 2010 (75.9%). This team is solid from the free throw line; however, there are a couple of individual concerns in Jefferson (40%) and Plumlee (0%). While I expect free throw shooting to remain a strength, with "strength" defined as at or above 70%, it warrants keeping an eye on during Phase III if only from an "individual performance" perspective.

That's my 2 cents on Phase III. I am anxious to hear responses from everyone! Come on DBR, let's talk some basketball!

superdave
01-03-2014, 03:24 PM
4. Can the DEFENSE avoid late game collapses?

Quality opponents Kansas and Arizona ran away from us late in the game. Have adjustments been made? Or will this be a problem against tough teams throughout the season? A huge question for Phase III in my mind.


Thanks, Bob. I think you are right about Tyler and Josh bringing a lot to the table defensively. Starting off the game, it works well to have them out there.

I think we will learn this phase whether Duke can get big stops in crunch time. That is a big question. That is where we go from good to a Final Four team.

Another defenisive question is whether Coach K will give the full court press more time goign forward.

Finally, Duke has seen so much zone defense this year. Dawkins is killing zones and after a brief blip, we may see Jabari's 3-ball back on track. But have the guys forgotten how to play against man-to-man defense? I doubt it, but we have not seen our guys lining up to drive into the paint in a while. I thought earlier this season that would be a huge strength with the new emphasis on handcheck fouls.

Kedsy
01-03-2014, 03:30 PM
Nice write up, Bob. Conference games are always so much different from pre-conference, so it'll be very interesting to see how this team develops.


3. Can DAWKINS be a consistent force off the bench?

It is easy to get excited when Dawkins sinks six 3-PT Field Goals and scores 20 points against Eastern Michigan; however, it is games such as his three points in four minutes against Arizona, three points in seven minutes against UCLA, zero points in eight minutes against Alabama that make me pause.

Andre and Coach K touched upon this recently, acknowledging that the "old Andre" would have come out flat against Elon after his big game against EMU. Seems to me if everyone realizes this is an issue and they fight against it, we have a better chance of defeating it.

That said, when Andre misses a few, in the past he's stopped trying to work for his shot, and when he's not working for his shot, Coach K tends to bench him. It's a cycle and I'm sure we'll see it in at least a few games this season, but I'm hopeful those games will be the exception, rather than the rule.


4. Can the DEFENSE avoid late game collapses?

Quality opponents Kansas and Arizona ran away from us late in the game. Have adjustments been made? Or will this be a problem against tough teams throughout the season? A huge question for Phase III in my mind.

The defense has come a long way since the Vermont game. I think the biggest question of this Phase is whether the D will continue to improve. Rodney and Jabari, in particular, still have plenty of room for growth on the defensive end, and for this team to reach its potential they have to get better at it every game.


ACC coaches are more familiar with how Duke plays so I expect those coaches to utilize their familiarity to go at Parker and Hood in order to try and get them in foul trouble and off the court.

Interestingly enough, I think this year ACC coaches and players are less familiar with Duke than in almost any other season. For one thing, Notre Dame, Pitt, and Syracuse are new to the conference. For another, no ACC team has really played against either of our two best players. It'll make for an interesting conference season.

Another thing I'll be watching closely in this Phase is whether we can continue to rebound as well as we have been. This team has been hitting the defensive boards probably better than any team in Coach K's tenure, which has surprised many because we don't play a tall center very often. But sustaining our rebounding success is going to be a lot tougher against ACC teams. I'm hopeful but not sure it's going to happen.

Also, one other thing I'll be looking for in this Phase is whether Rasheed continues his ascension. It may be a constant battle for him to remember that his job is to fit in with Rodney and Jabari, and that his most useful role is as a defender, shooter, and passer. He seems to be on the right track, but he's not yet where we need him to be.

Billy Dat
01-03-2014, 04:13 PM
This is a really good Phase post, Bob.

The only spot I might disagree is in your assertion that Jabari and Rodney are the two most irreplaceable pieces. Behind Jabari, I think Cook is our second most important player. If Tyler is playing in his place, defenses don't have to pay him much attention and can load up on everyone else. Quinn has played a full game more in minutes than any other player and is really our leader on both ends of the floor. I feel like we could fill in Rodney's role by committee easier than we could replace Quinn.

I agree with Kedsy's suggested tweak about seeing if the Defense can continue to improve, it has been on a nice upward trajectory since the Vermont game. Can we become a top 20 KenPom rated defense considering we've risen about 100 places over the past month? Right now, most of the KenPom top 20, like us, are there based on the strength of their offenses (only two teams are currently top 20 in both). I am also curious if the offense can continue its current torrid pace. One nice aspect of the rise in our defensive rating has been that our offense has not suffered.

As for the rotation, while I agree that the top 8 seem to have earned their place, typically K will literally reduce everyone else outside the rotation to mop up duty. On the contrary, Plumlee has been getting consistent first half minutes. While Jones' PT has certainly suffered the rise of Dawkins and Rasheed, it feels like K senses that Plumlee needs to stay connected via non-scrub minutes, what Dickie V used to always refer to as QT - Quality Time! It will be interesting to see if that continues due to a sneaking suspicion that we will need that size at some crucial point and don't want it to be covered in dust.

flyingdutchdevil
01-03-2014, 04:41 PM
This is a really good Phase post, Bob.

The only spot I might disagree is in your assertion that Jabari and Rodney are the two most irreplaceable pieces. Behind Jabari, I think Cook is our second most important player. If Tyler is playing in his place, defenses don't have to pay him much attention and can load up on everyone else. Quinn has played a full game more in minutes than any other player and is really our leader on both ends of the floor. I feel like we could fill in Rodney's role by committee easier than we could replace Quinn.

Billy - I keep on agreeing with you. This isn't like me - I love arguing and debating!

Cook, IMO, is clearly the second most important player on our team. Not necessarily the second most talented, but certainly the second most important (if not the most important). I believe this for two reasons:

1) Cook is our best distributor by far. And it's not even close. Not only does he average a solid 6.2 apg, but he only turns the ball over 2.0 per game, which is an amazing 3.1 A/TO.
2) The difference between Cook and the next alternative (Tyler) is significantly higher than the alternative between Hood and the next alternative (Dawkins / Sulaimon). If Hood gets in foul trouble, I'll feel much better about our situation if Dawkins and Sulaimon are there.

Again, I'm not discounting Thornton as a player, but he is so much better as an off-the-ball 2 than a 1.

superdave
01-03-2014, 04:56 PM
As for the rotation, while I agree that the top 8 seem to have earned their place, typically K will literally reduce everyone else outside the rotation to mop up duty. On the contrary, Plumlee has been getting consistent first half minutes. While Jones' PT has certainly suffered the rise of Dawkins and Rasheed, it feels like K senses that Plumlee needs to stay connected via non-scrub minutes, what Dickie V used to always refer to as QT - Quality Time! It will be interesting to see if that continues due to a sneaking suspicion that we will need that size at some crucial point and don't want it to be covered in dust.

Check out Ryan Kelly's minutes (http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/players/logs.php?playerid=2738&season=2009-10)in his freshman season - single digit minutes from January on except for Arknsas Pine Bluff game and a few DNPs. Ryan was the 9th man that year.

So yes, there is a recent precedent for Marshall.

Bob Green
01-03-2014, 05:08 PM
The only spot I might disagree is in your assertion that Jabari and Rodney are the two most irreplaceable pieces. Behind Jabari, I think Cook is our second most important player.


Cook, IMO, is clearly the second most important player on our team. Not necessarily the second most talented, but certainly the second most important (if not the most important).

You guys present a solid case for Cook, and I certainly recognize how valuable he is, but I'm really excited about the potential impact Hood could make this season. To me, he is the player fans have been clamoring for in recent seasons, a 6' 8" athlete with skills on both ends of the court. He is a slasher, a shooter and a defender. Perhaps I'm guilty of getting carried away but in the best case scenario I see Hood as the player who turns a good line-up into a great line-up.

Listen to Quants
01-03-2014, 05:19 PM
Ah Mr. Green, thanks for this. Well done.

I have a question that I hope gets an answer: can the lineup Cook, 2 of Dawkins/Thornton/Suli/Jones, 2 of Parker/Hood/Jefferson defend against quality teams? The game is won if you outscore the opponent, and that lineup can score in bunches. It has the flavor of the small, athletic lineups that CoachK has gone to many times. Can this one defend adequately?

flyingdutchdevil
01-03-2014, 05:47 PM
You guys present a solid case for Cook, and I certainly recognize how valuable he is, but I'm really excited about the potential impact Hood could make this season. To me, he is the player fans have been clamoring for in recent seasons, a 6' 8" athlete with skills on both ends of the court. He is a slasher, a shooter and a defender. Perhaps I'm guilty of getting carried away but in the best case scenario I see Hood as the player who turns a good line-up into a great line-up.

Bob - no one is arguing against Hood's talent. Hell, he's forecasted to be a lottery pick in one of the deepest drafts after only playing a dozen games!

He is the quintessential "Grant Hill" type player with all the attributes that you listed above.

But a lot of what he does, Jabari does better. On this team, Hood's skills aren't that unique (last year, he would have been a God Send). Also, Hood's scoring can be somewhat replaced with Dawkins and Sulaimon.

But Cook? Does anyone see the floor like he does? Does anyone pass better than him (or even close to passing)? Does anyone protect the ball the way that he does? Cook's skillset is unique to this team. Losing him would cost us the season.

MChambers
01-03-2014, 05:56 PM
I'm wondering if Duke's emphasis on man-to-man defense will be an advantage by the end of the season. It seems that so many teams are relying heavily on zone defenses this year, so perhaps teams will be more used to playing against zones. Of course, for Duke's man-to-man to be an advantage, it really needs to keep improving.

Newton_14
01-03-2014, 06:20 PM
Billy - I keep on agreeing with you. This isn't like me - I love arguing and debating!

Cook, IMO, is clearly the second most important player on our team. Not necessarily the second most talented, but certainly the second most important (if not the most important). I believe this for two reasons:

1) Cook is our best distributor by far. And it's not even close. Not only does he average a solid 6.2 apg, but he only turns the ball over 2.0 per game, which is an amazing 3.1 A/TO.
2) The difference between Cook and the next alternative (Tyler) is significantly higher than the alternative between Hood and the next alternative (Dawkins / Sulaimon). If Hood gets in foul trouble, I'll feel much better about our situation if Dawkins and Sulaimon are there.

Again, I'm not discounting Thornton as a player, but he is so much better as an off-the-ball 2 than a 1.

Well dang Mr Dutch! We agree again! We are on a roll here so don't screw it up! HA!:D


While I have always been a huge fan of Tyler Thornton and what he brings, I like his skill set much better as the off guard or even Small Forward. Yep, I think Tyler plays Small Forward better than he does the point. He has successfully defended bigger wings over the years through strength, toughness and smarts. His defense last year against "McDermy" in the Creightonwas beautiful. It was fun watching him irritate the heck out of that kid. It was one part of us winning that game. He almost went toe to toe with Prince Harry more than once.

I love Hood and what he brings as well, but we can better back him up in a crunch than we can with Quinn. Were it me, Rasheed would be Quinn's main backup and I would play Tyler at the 2 or the 3 for 100% of his minutes. Quinn is playing really well and logging a ton of minutes, however, that is very consistent with how K has played it most of his years going all the way back to Dawkins and Amaker. Guys like them, and Hurley, Jason Williams, Duhon, Ewing, Paulus the Freshman, Scheyer, Nolan, Kyrie, etc played 35+ mins each and every night in the years where they were the main starting PG. Barring injury, I see Quinn logging 38-40 mpg in Conference play. I am fine with that as long as his defense holds up. If he has a game or two where a bigger, stronger guard is abusing him on drives or something, I would turn to Rasheed to put out those fires.

Something to watch.

tommy
01-03-2014, 07:11 PM
Ah Mr. Green, thanks for this. Well done.

I have a question that I hope gets an answer: can the lineup Cook, 2 of Dawkins/Thornton/Suli/Jones, 2 of Parker/Hood/Jefferson defend against quality teams? The game is won if you outscore the opponent, and that lineup can score in bunches. It has the flavor of the small, athletic lineups that CoachK has gone to many times. Can this one defend adequately?

Well, it held now-#1 Arizona below its season average in points, despite having to play catch-up in the latter stages of the game, which has a tendency to inflate the opponents' points due to fouling, giving up easy shots resulting from gambling on D, etc. And of course more recently we held UCLA, which averages 85 ppg, to just 63 on a neutral floor. So the answer to question is "yes, we can." Doesn't mean we always will, and in fact there undoubtedly will be games in the remainder of this year where we don't play well defensively, but we've already proven that we have the ability to slow down some pretty talented teams.

tommy
01-03-2014, 07:38 PM
Great Phase post, Bob.

One thing I'll definitely be looking at is our rebounding. So far this season, we've done pretty well on the boards, even against the big teams we've faced, despite not having the "traditional" center in our lineup. Some have pooh-poohed our performance thus far in this department, though, believing that once we get into the ACC season, this purported weakness of ours will become more apparent.

In this phase we face several teams that present challenges on the boards. First up is Notre Dame. Garrick Sherman is 6'11' and 255 pounds, and grabs 7.6 boards in his 26 minutes per game. Big boy. Then off the bench, the Irish bring Zach Auguste (6'10", 242), Tom Knight (6'10", 258) and Austin Burgett (6'9", 227) for between 12 and 14 minutes per game per player. That's a lot of meat on the hoof, as they say. They'll be banging the boards hard, especially in the absence of their best player, Jerian Grant.

Georgia Tech's rebounding will obviously be weakened by the loss of Robert Carter, but still Daniel Miller, all 6'11" and 275 pounds of him, is averaging over 8 boards per game, and could prove to be a handful.

Clemson has a 6'10" kid named Landry Nnoko averaging 7 boards and KJ McDaniels, even though he's only 6'6" averages almost 7. They're also bringing a 6'10" freshman named Sidy Djitte off the bench, and in only 10 minutes per game, he's grabbing almost 4 rebounds. They're #21 overall in rebounding percentage in the nation.

I wouldn't expect much that's all that interesting rebounding-wise to go on against Virginia. Their defensive rebounding % is third in the nation right now, despite not having any terrific individual rebounders. I think they just play good, aggressive team defense and box out well, doing whatever they have to to limit offensive rebounds. But they also don't get too many of those themselves.

NC State ranks a lousy 122nd in the nation in rebounding percentage, despite having 7'1" Jordan Vandenberg (4.9 rpg), Lennard Freeman, a 6'8" 245 pound freshman grabbing almost 7 per game, as well as TJ Warren, averaging 7.8 boards. Despite their overall percentages not looking great, I just get the feeling that it's not going to be easy against them inside.

Miami's best rebounder is 6'9" Donnavan Kirk at 7.3 per game. They also have James Kelly getting 5.5, and he's a bruising 6'7" 246 pounds. Still, we should be able to do fine against those guys.

So that's a long way of saying that the folks who have, not unreasonably, withheld judgment on our rebounding this year until we get into ACC play, will likely have a fair number of their questions answered. I'll be watching it closely.

Listen to Quants
01-03-2014, 08:31 PM
Well, it held now-#1 Arizona below its season average in points, despite having to play catch-up in the latter stages of the game, which has a tendency to inflate the opponents' points due to fouling, giving up easy shots resulting from gambling on D, etc. And of course more recently we held UCLA, which averages 85 ppg, to just 63 on a neutral floor. So the answer to question is "yes, we can." Doesn't mean we always will, and in fact there undoubtedly will be games in the remainder of this year where we don't play well defensively, but we've already proven that we have the ability to slow down some pretty talented teams.

Do you mean the defensive splits w vs w/o Hairston (or Plumlee) were good? I'm asking if the team build for offense (Thornton can space the floor while Hairston seems a bit less useful) can defend. I think there is a fair chance we will see that lineup/rotation (that is, with Hairston and Plumlee relegated to the deep bench).

Newton_14
01-03-2014, 09:49 PM
Ah Mr. Green, thanks for this. Well done.

I have a question that I hope gets an answer: can the lineup Cook, 2 of Dawkins/Thornton/Suli/Jones, 2 of Parker/Hood/Jefferson defend against quality teams? The game is won if you outscore the opponent, and that lineup can score in bunches. It has the flavor of the small, athletic lineups that CoachK has gone to many times. Can this one defend adequately?

I'll take a stab at it. In short, yes, I do think your variants of potential lineup's can adequately defend the better teams, and overcome the lack of size by forcing turnovers, using their quickness and length, and rebounding well, on defense, while being highly efficient, and high scoring on offense. They are not where they can be or need to be yet, but they are finally showing signs. The thing about Duke's defense under K, is that it is so predicated on the 5-Finger (man) fist. 5 individuals performing a role that goes miles beyond defending whatever player they are assigned to, so much so, that if one guy makes a mistake it can and often does cause the whole thing (individual possessions) to collapse like a house of cards when pulling one card out.

I honestly thought the Elon game was the team's best performance on defense so far this season by a good margin. Many will dismiss that due to the quality of the opponent, but I believe that to be a flawed assumption and a big mistake. I sat in Cameron 3 times this year and watched our defense get carved up by Division II Drury, ECU, and then Vermont. Drury led at the half, and it took heroic efforts on offense to avoid losing to both ECU and Vermont. The team that played and beat Elon this week is a far better defensive team than the one I watched in those other 3 games.

The communicaton (which many either dismiss altogether as being important, or feel it is a minor thing) is much better now, as is the flow of the defense in how they rotate, switch, flash at guys coming off screens, hedge, and more simply stated "be in the spot you are supposed to be when you are supposed to be there", etc. K has also mixed back in just a little bit of full court pressing, and has used some trapping in the half court as a surprise factor lately, which tells me he is gaining more confidence in this groups ability to defend. Like others, I do wish to see him try the full court zone press again, and hope he gives it a shot. Over the years he normally only uses that defense at home, so not likely to see it tomorrow against Notre Dame. Something to look for in future home games. One other thing I am looking for is how well we can defend the high screen and roll with the PG/Big Man cause it is surely coming in conference play. We were not good at it last year, and have not been good at it when it has been used against us the few times so far this season.

So I am hopeful. Very interested to see how good the defense is in the 6 games that make up this Phase. Hoping to see steady improvement as a team, on both sides of the ball, with any of the Top 8 guys currently in the rotation, on the floor.

Kedsy
01-03-2014, 11:08 PM
I think there is a fair chance we will see that lineup/rotation (that is, with Hairston and Plumlee relegated to the deep bench).

Why do you think Josh will be at the end of the bench? Personally, I expect him to play between 10 and 20 minutes a game for pretty much the whole rest of the season.

Furniture
01-04-2014, 12:03 AM
Well dang Mr Dutch! We agree again! We are on a roll here so don't screw it up! HA!:D


I love Hood and what he brings as well, but we can better back him up in a crunch than we can with Quinn. Were it me, Rasheed would be Quinn's main backup and I would play Tyler at the 2 or the 3 for 100% of his minutes. Quinn is playing really well and logging a ton of minutes, however, that is very consistent with how K has played it most of his years going all the way back to Dawkins and Amaker. Guys like them, and Hurley, Jason Williams, Duhon, Ewing, Paulus the Freshman, Scheyer, Nolan, Kyrie, etc played 35+ mins each and every night in the years where they were the main starting PG. Barring injury, I see Quinn logging 38-40 mpg in Conference play. I am fine with that as long as his defense holds up. If he has a game or two where a bigger, stronger guard is abusing him on drives or something, I would turn to Rasheed to put out those fires.

Something to watch.

I agree with this 100%. I would add that I'm not sure about how K will start games but TT and Josh will get their solid ten mins but I see it more and more that it will not be at the same time unless we really get into a mess in some games.

Kedsy
01-04-2014, 12:46 AM
I agree with this 100%. I would add that I'm not sure about how K will start games but TT and Josh will get their solid ten mins but I see it more and more that it will not be at the same time unless we really get into a mess in some games.

I don't know why people seem to be so sure that what we saw minute-wise against Eastern Michigan and Elon is how it's going to be as we move forward.

For example, from the Alabama game, when Josh first entered the starting lineup, through the UCLA game, Josh averaged a shade over 20 minutes a game. In the games against overmatched opponents EMU and Elon, Josh averaged 11.5 mpg and Marshall averaged 14.0 mpg. Does anybody really think that's a trend?

As another example, in the games against Fla. Atlantic, UNC-Ashville, Vermont, Eastern Michigan, and Elon, Tyler averaged 14.2 mpg, but in the other games he's averaged 24.1 mpg. Granted, the other games included ECU and Gardner-Webb (and granted, Vermont didn't turn out to be overmatched), but by-and-large the trend is Tyler plays a lot of minutes against good opponents and a lot less against the overmatched opponents. Coincidence? I doubt it.

So, I suppose it's possible that Tyler's and Josh's playing time is really decreasing, but more likely not. Either way, the minute pattern from blowout home games against lightly regarded opponents is probably not the best barometer.

CDu
01-04-2014, 11:45 AM
I echo the others' thanks to Bob for putting this phase post together. I agree with most of the points, but I do think one thing is missing. What I'd like to see is Hood getting back to success. Over his last 7 games, he has averaged just 13.3 ppg, shooting just 42% from the field and 30% from 3. He has shot above 40% in just 2 of those 7 games, and above 33% from 3 in just one game (and that was on just one shot).

Obviously the team hasn't suffered too much. We won 6 of those 7 games, and our only loss was to Arizona. But for a guy who has been billed (rightly so, in my opinion) as one of the two best players on the team, we want/need him to play better. Hopefully he returns to form in this phase.

Billy Dat
01-04-2014, 01:23 PM
I echo the others' thanks to Bob for putting this phase post together. I agree with most of the points, but I do think one thing is missing. What I'd like to see is Hood getting back to success. Over his last 7 games, he has averaged just 13.3 ppg, shooting just 42% from the field and 30% from 3. He has shot above 40% in just 2 of those 7 games, and above 33% from 3 in just one game (and that was on just one shot).

Obviously the team hasn't suffered too much. We won 6 of those 7 games, and our only loss was to Arizona. But for a guy who has been billed (rightly so, in my opinion) as one of the two best players on the team, we want/need him to play better. Hopefully he returns to form in this phase.

Good call. When I was responding to Bob's initial post, something about Hood was bugging me and I thought about mentioning an interest in seeing if he had another gear. I looked at the season stats without looking at the trends and decided I'd be nitpicking. But, between Kedsy's points about his defense (and Jabari's) and your observations about his recent run of lesser production, I agree that maybe seeing Rodney return to his early season offensive form while continuing to improve on defense would be a big shot in the arm and something to keep an eye on. I'd also like to see Quinn try and improve his 3 point shooting percentage and push closer to 40%.

CDu
01-04-2014, 08:56 PM
I don't know why people seem to be so sure that what we saw minute-wise against Eastern Michigan and Elon is how it's going to be as we move forward.

For example, from the Alabama game, when Josh first entered the starting lineup, through the UCLA game, Josh averaged a shade over 20 minutes a game. In the games against overmatched opponents EMU and Elon, Josh averaged 11.5 mpg and Marshall averaged 14.0 mpg. Does anybody really think that's a trend?

As another example, in the games against Fla. Atlantic, UNC-Ashville, Vermont, Eastern Michigan, and Elon, Tyler averaged 14.2 mpg, but in the other games he's averaged 24.1 mpg. Granted, the other games included ECU and Gardner-Webb (and granted, Vermont didn't turn out to be overmatched), but by-and-large the trend is Tyler plays a lot of minutes against good opponents and a lot less against the overmatched opponents. Coincidence? I doubt it.

So, I suppose it's possible that Tyler's and Josh's playing time is really decreasing, but more likely not. Either way, the minute pattern from blowout home games against lightly regarded opponents is probably not the best barometer.

Well, Hairston's minutes again were on a decline today: he played just 9 minutes against Notre Dame, in what was clearly a close game. I do suspect that we're seeing a trend with him. Obviously that doesn't directly correlate to Plumlee seeing more time: he played just 4 minutes. It appears that Coach K is instead choosing to go small for longer stretches.

Thornton saw his minutes jump back up in this one (25 minutes) at the expense of Jones. I do think that he'll continue to see 15-25 mpg moving forward.

sagegrouse
01-08-2014, 09:47 PM
Phase III and the turn of the New Year is a good time to reflect on the surprises for the season. Everyone's expectations would have been different, so this is a discussion, not an argument.

Here's my list:

1. The productivity of Andre Dawkins -- and not just in shooting. Andre's 2012 season ended poorly, and he sat out last year. Is this preparation for a starring role senior year? I think not. However, in just under 15 MPG, Andre is averaging 9.4 PPG, including 47 percent shooting from 3pt. range. Does 30 MPG imply a 20 PPG average? Moreover, his defense is improved, and he has shown the ability to drive and score, making 9 of 13 shots inside the arc.

2. Josh (8 games) and Tyler (10 games) as starters? You could have knocked me over with a feather when K made that move. Now they seem to be moving back to the bench. I think I have an explanation, but will deal with it in a different post.

3. Alex Murphy -- gone, gone, gone. There was a numbers problem, but I really thought that Alex would play meaningful minutes.

4. Rasheed's rough start. We heard the warnings in preseason that his starting position from last year was up for grabs. I didn't believe it because I though Rasheed had a chance to be All-ACC. But he was not a factor in the early season. Happily, the ship has been righted (wrighted? rited? writed?).

5. Amile Jefferson's rebounding. I don't see Amile singing "Happy Birthday" to Kim Jong-un any time soon, but he has Rodmanesque moves in going for rebounds. He is fascinating to watch. Amile is averaging 6.3 on 17.5 minutes, which translates to 10.8 in 30 MPG. Uhhh.... no one in the ACC is grabbing that many rebounds, no matter how many minutes.

6. Jabari is even better than expected. I am always skeptical of freshmen, but he is bnow eing touted as the best player in college basketball. A couple of off games probably won't be remembered for very long. He is as big a phenom as Kyrie -- and, so far, a lot healthier.

Other observations, but not surprises (at least to me) --

Rodney Hood is every bit as good as advertised.

Marshall Plumlee, following even more injuries, is having trouble getting minutes.

The enjoyment of the play of Matt Jones and Semi Ojeleye will have to wait a while.

tommy
01-08-2014, 10:10 PM
I echo the others' thanks to Bob for putting this phase post together. I agree with most of the points, but I do think one thing is missing. What I'd like to see is Hood getting back to success. Over his last 7 games, he has averaged just 13.3 ppg, shooting just 42% from the field and 30% from 3. He has shot above 40% in just 2 of those 7 games, and above 33% from 3 in just one game (and that was on just one shot).

Obviously the team hasn't suffered too much. We won 6 of those 7 games, and our only loss was to Arizona. But for a guy who has been billed (rightly so, in my opinion) as one of the two best players on the team, we want/need him to play better. Hopefully he returns to form in this phase.

At least through the first couple games of this Phase, I'd say this box is being checked.

Troublemaker
01-09-2014, 11:23 AM
Phase III and the turn of the New Year is a good time to reflect on the surprises for the season. Everyone's expectations would have been different, so this is a discussion, not an argument.


Hey sage, good topic discussion. We all know what the bad surprise has been (e.g. defensive struggles). Let's focus a bit on the good surprises.

I knew Duke would be very good on offense but to be #1 in the country if things hold, that's surprising!

Like you, Jabari has been better than I thought he would be. Going into the season, I figured Jabari would be like Singler; can play the 4, but better at the 3. Jabari is opposite. He's a big, physical player, someone who could play the 3 but is a true college 4. His post game has been a surprise. He can post up smaller players and punish them with buckets and fouls drawn. And, of course, he has that amazing faceup game and bag of moves to shake defenders. Effective with pullups, with physical drives, with spot-up shooting. Threatens defenses with lob dunks. There are virtually zero weaknesses in his offensive game.

Hood likewise has been a surprise. I thought he would just be a slashing wing who can hit a 3-pointer. But like Jabari, his post game has surprised. He loves to post up smaller wings deep into the paint and rise for a short jumper or hook shot. He can also post them not as deep and rise for a midrange jump shot. All reliable shots for his post repertoire. And his outside shot is so pure. I knew he would be a good 3-pt shooter, but right now, he's shooting the three at the same percentage as Dawkins!

Props to Coach K for constructing this #1 offense as well. That didn't happen by accident. Coach K has always recruited versatile players and knows how to use them all over the court. Under most other coaches, Jabari wouldn't be scoring in all the varied ways that he's scoring for Duke. Same with Rodney. Coach K also, from Day One, told everybody on the team and in the media that Parker and Hood were his two best players and the ball would go to them accordingly. No beating around the bush. No allowing these two new players to gradually find their roles on the team. From Day One, he established that they were his first two options on offense, and the rest of the team would have to find roles around them. So Duke came out smoking on offense from Game 1, and it wasn't an accident. Coach K's philosophies and tactics on how to build a team and utilize versatile players were quite responsible for what we are seeing on that end of the floor.

We have to continue to get better on defense, I get that. But it sure is nice to have the #1 offense to work with while endeavouring towards defensive improvements.

flyingdutchdevil
01-09-2014, 11:45 AM
Phase III and the turn of the New Year is a good time to reflect on the surprises for the season. Everyone's expectations would have been different, so this is a discussion, not an argument.

Here's my list:

1. The productivity of Andre Dawkins -- and not just in shooting. Andre's 2012 season ended poorly, and he sat out last year. Is this preparation for a starring role senior year? I think not. However, in just under 15 MPG, Andre is averaging 9.4 PPG, including 47 percent shooting from 3pt. range. Does 30 MPG imply a 20 PPG average? Moreover, his defense is improved, and he has shown the ability to drive and score, making 9 of 13 shots inside the arc.

2. Josh (8 games) and Tyler (10 games) as starters? You could have knocked me over with a feather when K made that move. Now they seem to be moving back to the bench. I think I have an explanation, but will deal with it in a different post.

3. Alex Murphy -- gone, gone, gone. There was a numbers problem, but I really thought that Alex would play meaningful minutes.

4. Rasheed's rough start. We heard the warnings in preseason that his starting position from last year was up for grabs. I didn't believe it because I though Rasheed had a chance to be All-ACC. But he was not a factor in the early season. Happily, the ship has been righted (wrighted? rited? writed?).

5. Amile Jefferson's rebounding. I don't see Amile singing "Happy Birthday" to Kim Jong-un any time soon, but he has Rodmanesque moves in going for rebounds. He is fascinating to watch. Amile is averaging 6.3 on 17.5 minutes, which translates to 10.8 in 30 MPG. Uhhh.... no one in the ACC is grabbing that many rebounds, no matter how many minutes.

6. Jabari is even better than expected. I am always skeptical of freshmen, but he is bnow eing touted as the best player in college basketball. A couple of off games probably won't be remembered for very long. He is as big a phenom as Kyrie -- and, so far, a lot healthier.

Other observations, but not surprises (at least to me) --

Rodney Hood is every bit as good as advertised.

Marshall Plumlee, following even more injuries, is having trouble getting minutes.

The enjoyment of the play of Matt Jones and Semi Ojeleye will have to wait a while.

Sage - thanks. Great list. I agree with most, and will add a few that I found very surprising (unfortunately, Sage covered the positive surprises, so I'll tackle of a few of the negative surprises).

7) Coach K's 8-man rotation. There was a lot of speculation of having a 9, 10, or even an 11 man rotation, but it looks like you can't teach an old dog new tricks. The rotation looks to be set at 8.

8) Defensive efficiency. With a Grant Hill-esque team filled with athletic players, I'm surprised at how poor our defensive efficiency is. I honestly don't buy the "young" argument given that a) Jabari is the only true freshman in the rotation and, within our starting line-up during the GT game, there is a total of 5 years of experience under Coach K (I'm counting Hood's sit out season as 1 year of experience. He was with the team during all practices last year, was he not?).

9) Marshall Plumlee's inability to hit a free throw. I will be telling my kids about the brilliance or JJ Redick and the ineptitude of MP3 at the FT line. It's really mind-boggling.

10) Our rebounding numbers. For a team that lacks a lot of size, we are really good at rebounding. It was come to the point where rebounding is an asset to this team.

Things that don't surprise me:

-Quinn Cook's rise to become on the best PGs in the country. He is our best passer since Duhon (and maybe better) and his spin move is a thing of beauty.

-Getting pummeled down low on D. For me, this was the biggest concern entering the season. Unfortunately, not much has been successfully done to fix it.

superdave
01-09-2014, 11:47 AM
I would add Andre's rise after a slow start and Rasheed's dip. It looks like both guys are becoming more consistent and that is a really good thing. Everyone seemed to expect Rasheed to hit the ground running, and when he didnt it was odd.

In fact, I would say that Rasheed, Andre and Marshall have all shown progress over the last two months both in their individual play and integrating into their roles with their teammates. Only when they grow into those roles can the team truly take off, in my opinion. I think we are getting there.

superdave
01-09-2014, 11:48 AM
7) Coach K's 8-man rotation. There was a lot of speculation of having a 9, 10, or even an 11 man rotation, but it looks like you can't teach an old dog new tricks. The rotation looks to be set at 8.


I would argue that we have a 9-man rotation for the first half that includes Marshall and an 8-man rotation in the second half that excludes Marshall. We will see if that holds to form.

superdave
01-23-2014, 01:30 PM
After losing to Clemson by 13, Duke has won three in a row. We've held those three opponents to the following Points/FG%/3pt% -

Virginia 65 points/38.2% FG/40% 3's.
NCSU 60/48.1%/25%
Miami 46/35.4%/20%

Anyone have the per possession defensive stats for those games? It will be interesting to track our D before and after the platoon system was implemented.

Troublemaker
01-23-2014, 01:37 PM
superdave -

According to Pomeroy, the ppp allowed for the last 3 games:

UVA: 1.06 ppp (Duke's D ranking actually declined after this game. UVA really boosted their ppp in the last 8 minutes after they went small).

NCSU: 0.86 ppp

Miami: 0.80 ppp

superdave
01-23-2014, 01:44 PM
superdave -

According to Pomeroy, the ppp allowed for the last 3 games:

UVA: 1.06 ppp (Duke's D ranking actually declined after this game. UVA really boosted their ppp in the last 8 minutes after they went small).

NCSU: 0.86 ppp

Miami: 0.80 ppp

Thank you

Our next opponents ought to show how good our D is -FSU is at 112.3 AdjO (#44 overall), Pitt is at 119.5 (#6) and Cuse is at 118.1 (#9).

Hoping for good defensive energy and elimination of the easy mistakes.

Kedsy
01-23-2014, 02:32 PM
After losing to Clemson by 13, Duke has won three in a row. We've held those three opponents to the following Points/FG%/3pt% -

Virginia 65 points/38.2% FG/40% 3's.
NCSU 60/48.1%/25%
Miami 46/35.4%/20%

Anyone have the per possession defensive stats for those games? It will be interesting to track our D before and after the platoon system was implemented.

Here's a snapshot of our defensive performance (tempo-free) for each game in the season (courtesy of statsheet (http://statsheet.com/mcb/teams/duke/game_stats)):



Game Possessions Opp PPP Opp Off Eff Opp eFG% Opp OR%
DAV 70 1.1 110.0 44.4 35.1
KU 75 1.25 125.3 58.8 32.1
FAU 72 0.89 88.9 40.3 33.3
UNCA 69 0.8 79.7 36.8 31.0
ECU 72 1.03 102.8 44.4 35.1
UVM 64 1.41 140.6 68.5 27.3
Bama 74 0.86 86.5 42.1 27.0
Arizona 67 1.07 107.5 54.3 30.8
MICH 66 1.05 104.5 47.3 24.2
GWU 63 1.05 104.8 59.0 21.4
UCLA 72 0.88 87.5 46.7 16.2
Emich 69 0.86 85.5 41.1 30.8
@ELON 72 0.67 66.7 39.8 18.9
@ND 64 1.23 123.4 57.9 33.3
GT 61 0.93 93.4 53.8 19.4
@CLEM 63 1.14 114.3 50.9 38.9
UVA 61 1.07 106.6 41.8 36.1
NCSU 69 0.87 87.0 50.0 34.4
@MIA 57 0.81 80.7 37.5 25.0

TOTALS 67 0.99 98.8 48.0 29.2

Kedsy
01-23-2014, 03:02 PM
I forgot to include the important stat of turnover %. Interestingly enough, while it seemed we generated a lot more turnovers since the "line change" system, it was really only the NC State game where that was true.



Game Possessions Opp PPP Opp Off Eff Opp eFG% Opp OR% Opp TO%
DAV 70 1.1 110.0 44.4 35.1 14.3
KU 75 1.25 125.3 58.8 32.1 13.3
FAU 72 0.89 88.9 40.3 33.3 19.4
UNCA 69 0.8 79.7 36.8 31.0 21.7
ECU 72 1.03 102.8 44.4 35.1 20.8
UVM 64 1.41 140.6 68.5 27.3 9.4
Bama 74 0.86 86.5 42.1 27.0 21.6
Arizona 67 1.07 107.5 54.3 30.8 23.9
MICH 66 1.05 104.5 47.3 24.2 18.2
GWU 63 1.05 104.8 59.0 21.4 19.0
UCLA 72 0.88 87.5 46.7 16.2 18.1
Emich 69 0.86 85.5 41.1 30.8 21.7
@ELON 72 0.67 66.7 39.8 18.9 30.6
@ND 64 1.23 123.4 57.9 33.3 9.4
GT 61 0.93 93.4 53.8 19.4 18.0
@CLEM 63 1.14 114.3 50.9 38.9 15.9
UVA 61 1.07 106.6 41.8 36.1 13.1
NCSU 69 0.87 87.0 50.0 34.4 30.4
@MIA 57 0.81 80.7 37.5 25.0 19.3

TOTALS 67 0.99 98.8 48.0 29.2 18.9

greybeard
01-23-2014, 03:05 PM
Ale is oh so quick off his feet; comes down and goes up again seemingly with no time in between. His feet are very quick too, he sees the game and where the misses are likely to come off better than just about anyone I've seen. He is a flash going for balls, in the air and on the floor exceptionally well. Without the insanity, this guy is Dennis Rodman, only exceedingly well spoken and a bigger role on offense. He will be a first round pick, probably top ten pick with another year but he just might stay.

Dawkins and Parker. I think that both need to feel when the 3-ball is not right. Dawkins has plenty of room for a dribble or 2; sometimes Parker doesn't. When these guys are balanced, deadly. When not, not so much. Parker, if he puts it on the ground, kicks it. Cook too sometimes it seems to me shoots improvidently, not quite on balance, when there is no rush. Miami did a good job playing the 3. Very.

Rasheed and Dawkins belong on the second platoon, if there is one. Very good defensive team; Rasheed on the ball, Plumlee back to alter or block, and both Josh and Tyler defend quite well and they will hit you, if need be. I'd say I'd like the ball go inside to Plumlee at least a few times, but K doesn't think. More than good enough for me.

Need to stay healthy. The case with contenders too? I was waffling about whether to include "other" but too early.

For me, very exciting to see this second team, and then have Rasheed especially, but Dawkins too, fresh for big minutes second half. If K lets Dawkins break down defender for 2, he might become much more potent. Again, I'm not K. This second platoon can and does hurt people. Makes other team's defense and offense work like crazy.

Rodney is crazy good. Very good judgment, very good organization (he knows when he needs to collect himself to shoot, and generally doesn't. Tough, terrific player; much better shooter than Hill, Hill more diverse off the bounce, but Rodney gets to the rim extremely well. Does little things and defends. Keeps balance on the court more than anyone.

Fun team to watch.

flyingdutchdevil
01-23-2014, 03:07 PM
Ale is oh so quick off his feet; comes down and goes up again seemingly with no time in between. His feet are very quick too, he sees the game and where the misses are likely to come off better than just about anyone I've seen. He is a flash going for balls, in the air and on the floor exceptionally well. Without the insanity, this guy is Dennis Rodman, only exceedingly well spoken and a bigger role on offense. He will be a first round pick, probably top ten pick with another year but he just might stay.

? Is this another classic greybeard misspell or a new nickname you are trying to come up with?

GGLC
01-23-2014, 03:09 PM
? Is this another classic greybeard misspell or a new nickname you are trying to come up with?

Gonna guess autocorrect

sagegrouse
01-23-2014, 03:10 PM
? Is this another classic greybeard misspell or a new nickname you are trying to come up with?

Should it be moved to the "Ymm, beer" thread? What say, Devil Deac?

Kedsy
01-23-2014, 03:11 PM
[Amile] will be a first round pick, probably top ten pick with another year but he just might stay.

Amile is almost certainly going to be a four-year player for Duke. He is just not big enough to play C or even PF at the NBA level, and offensively isn't skilled enough to play SF, or even PF (yet -- I think he will get there for a PF, but he needs to get stronger).

FWIW, Rodman was a 2nd round pick. No matter how well he rebounds, the NBA won't be clamoring for Amile to leave early.

MChambers
01-23-2014, 03:22 PM
Gonna guess autocorrect
Probably meant "Lager".

Gthoma2a
01-23-2014, 03:23 PM
Should it be moved to the "Ymm, beer" thread? What say, Devil Deac?

Maybe Ale deserves a lager role on this team.

Mcluhan
01-23-2014, 03:40 PM
A proposed question for the next phase: Have we finally found our identity?

My feeling is yes, but it feels like the crucial question of the moment.

flyingdutchdevil
01-23-2014, 03:41 PM
A proposed question for the next phase: Have we finally found our identity?

My feeling is yes, but it feels like the crucial question of the moment.

Does our identity involve either Ale or Lager? If it's one or the other, I agree. We have found our identity.

CDu
01-23-2014, 03:52 PM
Amile is almost certainly going to be a four-year player for Duke. He is just not big enough to play C or even PF at the NBA level, and offensively isn't skilled enough to play SF, or even PF (yet -- I think he will get there for a PF, but he needs to get stronger).

FWIW, Rodman was a 2nd round pick. No matter how well he rebounds, the NBA won't be clamoring for Amile to leave early.

Yeah, I love what Jefferson is doing this year, but he really doesn't have an NBA position right now. He's built like an NBA SF but has the offensive skills of an NBA C.

I could see him eventually finding an NBA role like Hakeem Warrick (but with better rebounding). Like Jefferson, Warrick was a tall, skinny, long-armed guy who didn't have a great jumpshot. But that's about where the similarities end: Warrick was a better leaper and had a more polished offensive game. Basically, he was about a year ahead in development from where I see Jefferson right now. As a soph, Warrick averaged 14.8 ppg in 32.7 mpg. He boosted those scoring numbers to 19.8 and 21.4 as a junior and senior.

I don't know that Jefferson will ever be that big a scorer at Duke (I kind of doubt it, but you never know). But he's probably a better rebounder already. Regardless, I don't see much threat of him leaving early because as Kedsy says, the NBA just isn't knocking down the door to get him.

flyingdutchdevil
01-23-2014, 03:58 PM
Yeah, I love what Jefferson is doing this year, but he really doesn't have an NBA position right now. He's built like an NBA SF but has the offensive skills of an NBA C.

I could see him eventually finding an NBA role like Hakeem Warrick (but with better rebounding). Like Jefferson, Warrick was a tall, skinny, long-armed guy who didn't have a great jumpshot. But that's about where the similarities end: Warrick was a better leaper and had a more polished offensive game. Basically, he was about a year ahead in development from where I see Jefferson right now. As a soph, Warrick averaged 14.8 ppg in 32.7 mpg. He boosted those scoring numbers to 19.8 and 21.4 as a junior and senior.

I don't know that Jefferson will ever be that big a scorer at Duke (I kind of doubt it, but you never know). But he's probably a better rebounder already. Regardless, I don't see much threat of him leaving early because as Kedsy says, the NBA just isn't knocking down the door to get him.

If Jefferson is Warrick, does that make Jabari our version Melo? Who is Gerry McNamara on this team? Is Hood like Kueth Duany? ;)

Bob Green
01-23-2014, 06:45 PM
We went 4-2 over the six games of Phase III. Here is my recap:

1. Can the team maintain its HEALTH?

Yes, we made it through Phase III in good health!

2. Is the ROTATION set?

I stated the tinkering would become fine tuning, which isn't close to what took place. I completely missed the boat on the whole subbing five at a time thing, but I don't feel bad seeing as it took everyone by surprise.

The 10/11 man rotation is the biggest development of Phase III. I'm excited to see it continue.

3. Can DAWKINS be a consistent force off the bench?

Dawkins was a consistent, well rounded player throughout the phase. His overall game is solid evidenced by the three steals he recorded last night against Miami. As far as scoring goes, he averaged seven points per game, which is almost two points below his season average of 8.9 per game.

4. Can the DEFENSE avoid late game collapses?

We lost two of six games during this phase and held second half leads in both games, plus Virginia mounted a 13-1 run late in the game. Clemson pounded us in the second half to a tune of 41-22. This remains an area of concern for me.

5. Can Parker and Hood avoid FOUL TROUBLE?

This is another question where I missed the boat as I expected issues to arise. Sometimes it is very good being very wrong.

6. Will FREE THROWS be a strength?

Yes! Duke's season free throw percentage is 74.2%.

NSDukeFan
01-23-2014, 07:12 PM
...

Dawkins and Parker. I think that both need to feel when the 3-ball is not right. Dawkins has plenty of room for a dribble or 2; sometimes Parker doesn't. When these guys are balanced, deadly. When not, not so much. Parker, if he puts it on the ground, kicks it. Cook too sometimes it seems to me shoots improvidently, not quite on balance, when there is no rush. Miami did a good job playing the 3. Very.


For me, very exciting to see this second team, and then have Rasheed especially, but Dawkins too, fresh for big minutes second half. If K lets Dawkins break down defender for 2, he might become much more potent. Again, I'm not K. This second platoon can and does hurt people. Makes other team's defense and offense work like crazy.

Rodney is crazy good. Very good judgment, very good organization (he knows when he needs to collect himself to shoot, and generally doesn't. Tough, terrific player; much better shooter than Hill, Hill more diverse off the bounce, but Rodney gets to the rim extremely well. Does little things and defends. Keeps balance on the court more than anyone.

Fun team to watch.
I agree completely on Parker trying to figure out whether he is hot from three or not, but disagree with Dawkins. I always want him shooting open and semi-open threes. Part of the reason I always want him shooting is because of his footwork and that he always seems to be balanced when shooting.

I also agree that it is exciting to see fresh Rasheed and Dawkins as top scoring options. I also agree that Hood is crazy good. He is great from 3, solid on the drive and has one of the best mid-range games around recently.

I, of course, agree that this is a very fun team to watch

Tappan Zee Devil
01-23-2014, 09:09 PM
Does our identity involve either Ale or Lager? If it's one or the other, I agree. We have found our identity.

I believe they used to serve both at the Ivy Room. They can both be part of a Duke identity

superdave
01-23-2014, 09:53 PM
5. Can Parker and Hood avoid FOUL TROUBLE?

This is another question where I missed the boat as I expected issues to arise. Sometimes it is very good being very wrong.


We always seem to have a game late in the season wit inexplicable foul trouble. The deeper bench will help with that.

Do you think our guys have adjusted to the new rule enforcement or the referees have backed off some or our coaches have changed things up some?

I think the rule enforcement has limited Thornton and Hairston in their effectivenes. It would be interesting to compare their junior and senior seasons and try to figure out what the most important factors are.

greybeard
01-23-2014, 11:45 PM
I agree completely on Parker trying to figure out whether he is hot from three or not, but disagree with Dawkins. I always want him shooting open and semi-open threes. Part of the reason I always want him shooting is because of his footwork and that he always seems to be balanced when shooting.

I also agree that it is exciting to see fresh Rasheed and Dawkins as top scoring options. I also agree that Hood is crazy good. He is great from 3, solid on the drive and has one of the best mid-range games around recently.

I, of course, agree that this is a very fun team to watch

I agree with you about Dre, but don't think that he helps himself by shooting when he is not organized to do so. To the contrary, I think that if he takes a couple of those shots, he is less likely to see court time in the second half, blending with the first team. When he catches and feels rushed, I rather see him stay relaxed and make a very subtle fake, eyes, head tilt, beginning to bring the ball up, but this only creates the illusion that he has begun to rise. Doing that type fake provides an opportunity to get better organized, and then be on balance to shoot a 2 off the bounce. Right now, all the training that players get from the time they start playing organized ball has Dre making fast fakes, aka "a triple threat" technique that a player of his shooting ability does not need. Maybe watch a little film of Curry, and then ask Scheyer to work with him. It would probably take just a couple of hours for him to get enough down to play with. Actually, have seen him make a nice subtle fake and shooting off the bounce off catches up top. Hitting a couple of 2s, rather than missing 3s taken when he is not ready might well open up a whole other facet of his game. Really like this guy as a player and a man.

I don't think its necessarily a question of Parker's being "hot," but rather shooting when he is not ready. He is such an incredible ball player but a 3, especially from the corner, even he can have real difficulty trying to get organized while in the air. Out front is another matter.

CDu, cogent analysis of Amile, but I'd wait to see where he is by his senior year before wring him off as a 4 in the NBA. Also, a guy with his incredible balance and timing should be able to develop as a shooter. Right now, he is spending so much energy on rebounding and defending, and is focused when he catches on trying to find Parker, that I am not sure we are seeing the best that he has in his offensive game. On the other hand, you seem to be confident in your assessment of Amile's offensive game. Good enough for me.

CDu
01-24-2014, 09:35 AM
CDu, cogent analysis of Amile, but I'd wait to see where he is by his senior year before wring him off as a 4 in the NBA. Also, a guy with his incredible balance and timing should be able to develop as a shooter. Right now, he is spending so much energy on rebounding and defending, and is focused when he catches on trying to find Parker, that I am not sure we are seeing the best that he has in his offensive game. On the other hand, you seem to be confident in your assessment of Amile's offensive game. Good enough for me.

I agree, and I wasn't writing him off as a PF in the NBA eventually. I'm just saying that, right now, he doesn't have a PF game or PF body. Hopefully both of those things develop over the next 2 years at Duke.

My comments were strictly in relation to the threat of Jefferson going pro early either this year or next year. I just don't see either of those scenarios being a reasonable probability.

I'll make no comments this year about what his chances will be after his senior year or beyond. 2.5+ years is a long time away, and a lot can happen between now and then.

sagegrouse
01-24-2014, 09:47 AM
I agree, and I wasn't writing him off as a PF in the NBA eventually. I'm just saying that, right now, he doesn't have a PF game or PF body. Hopefully both of those things develop over the next 2 years at Duke.

My comments were strictly in relation to the threat of Jefferson going pro early either this year or next year. I just don't see either of those scenarios being a reasonable probability.

I'll make no comments this year about what his chances will be after his senior year or beyond. 2.5+ years is a long time away, and a lot can happen between now and then.

Dennis Rodman, 6-7, 210. Bill Russell, 6-10, 215.

flyingdutchdevil
01-24-2014, 09:50 AM
Dennis Rodman, 6-7, 210. Bill Russell, 6-10, 215.

How about a rebounder from the last 15 years?

superdave
01-24-2014, 10:01 AM
How about a rebounder from the last 15 years?

Kenneth Faried (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/6433/kenneth-faried) is 6'8'' and 228lbs.

Amile is a little taller/longer. If he can add another 10-15lbs this coming summer, he will get on people's draft radar for 2015 I bet.

COYS
01-24-2014, 10:06 AM
Kenneth Faried (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/6433/kenneth-faried) is 6'8'' and 228lbs.

Amile is a little taller/longer. If he can add another 10-15lbs this coming summer, he will get on people's draft radar for 2015 I bet.

Rebounding is the stat that most easily translates to the NBA from college. I agree and think that Amile can find a place in the NBA as long as he continues to improve offensively (working on a jump shot would help even he waits 'til he becomes a pro to unveil it in games) and continues to rebound at a high rate. If Lance can spend a little time in the pros, so too can Amile with some hard work.

greybeard
01-24-2014, 10:12 AM
I agree, and I wasn't writing him off as a PF in the NBA eventually. I'm just saying that, right now, he doesn't have a PF game or PF body. Hopefully both of those things develop over the next 2 years at Duke.

My comments were strictly in relation to the threat of Jefferson going pro early either this year or next year. I just don't see either of those scenarios being a reasonable probability.

I'll make no comments this year about what his chances will be after his senior year or beyond. 2.5+ years is a long time away, and a lot can happen between now and then.

My bad. Your post was To the point, crisp, and spot on. Not a bad combination. Should have stopped with "cogent."

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