MBB: Duke 86, Elon 48 Post Game Thread

[Bob Green]

Discuss the game here.

[Frobisher]

So many things to like, mostly regarding depth. I liked the minutes distribution, as well. I'm sure others will delineate such things downthread, so I will abstain.
One can always nitpick, and a few things stood out, but at the end off the game a thought hit me:

Marshall is now something like 0 -17 from the line, I think, for his career.
It would likely be near impossible to dig up, but this is either a record or approaching one, right?? Most misses before a make, that is.

Otherwise, I really liked his game today.

[Furniture]

Looking forward to watch Syracuse vs. eastern Michigan now. It will be an interesting comparison.

[sagegrouse]

Suffocating defense for most of the game. It was a poor performance by the Phoenix, but Duke D had a lot to do with it.

Breakout game for Rasheed; Andre Dawkins creating nightmares for future opponents; Marshall up to play his old buddy.

sage

[Saratoga2]

Rasheed coming alive in the second half
Rodney getting over cold first half shooting
Dawkins shooting lights out again
Excellent play from Quinn, points, assists and steals
Amile played well as did Marshall
A cool Jabari is still better than most

The team is rounding into shape to start the ACC schdule. There is depth this year. Notre Dame away will be a solid test.

[Furniture]

Amongst other things I really think that K is encouraging Sheed to drive to the basket. It really adds another dimension....of course add to that Andre and we are a team with a huge amount of offensive weapons on top of Jabari and Hood!

[BlueDevilBrowns]

If I had to describe this game with one word, it would be "surgical".

Excellent execution on both offense and defense.

As mentioned, great use of depth to wear down a weaker opponent.

[GGLC]

10 guys with 10+ minutes according to the Yahoo box score (and Semi with 7), which is cool to see even if it's predominantly a product of a blowout non-conference win.

Will be really interesting to track Andre/Rasheed/Tyler's minutes going forward; they could all merit 25+ minutes given their recent level of play, arithmetic be damned.

[dukelifer]

Discuss the game here.

Nice blowout win to get ready for ACC play. Elon was overmatched at every position. Good attention to D and another good outing by Rasheed. It starts getting more intense with the first real away game - but against a depleted Notre Dame team. Still - the crowd will be brutal. We will see how the boys respond.

[dukelifer]

Amongst other things I really think that K is encouraging Sheed to drive to the basket. It really adds another dimension....of course add to that Andre and we are a team with a huge amount of offensive weapons on top of Jabari and Hood!
I much prefer him to pass off that drive. He is much better than Quinn with that type of assist.

[Furniture]

I much prefer him to pass off that drive. He is much better than Quinn with that type of assist.

I agree with that and I think that's part of it too. In fact if I think about it when he has got to the basket and passed we may have been more successful in scoring vs. him taking a shot.

[BD80]

... Marshall is now something like 0 -17 from the line, I think, for his career.
It would likely be near impossible to dig up, but this is either a record or approaching one, right?? Most misses before a make, that is. ...

Chris Burgess may have been 0-career

[elvis14]

I thought Elon defended the free throw line pretty well. Other than that it was a dominate performance against an overmatched opponent. I was rooting hardest of all for MP3 to make a FT. I really wanted it for him. Really like the way everyone pitched in today. A great team effort.

[NYBri]

I thought Elon defended the free throw line pretty well. Other than that it was a dominate performance against an overmatched opponent. I was rooting hardest of all for MP3 to make a FT. I really wanted it for him. Really like the way everyone pitched in today. A great team effort.

His inability to hit a FT is going to keep him off the floor in any crunch time of any game...and it might keep him off the floor in all games except those where we are looking at a certain win.

[flyingdutchdevil]

1) Rasheed, either intentional or not, had a fabulous Euro step. Did anyone else catch that? What a thing of beauty.

2) Jabari didn't shoot well, but played well defensively and rebounded well.

3) Andre Dawkins is our best 3pt shooter since JJ. I mean, this guy is just ridiculous. I think he's playing so much better for a number of reasons, one being that this is the first time that the opposing team needs to double team Jabari (and possibly Hood) and that really frees up AD. Plus, AD's release is so quick he barely needs space.

4) We have the deepest 2 position in the NCAA. Hell, of any position in the league, we may have the deepest. It's kinda ridiculous. Actually, it's kinda awesome. No, it's definitely awesome.

5) Quinn Cook is a really good 3pt shooter when he's wide open. Off the dribble? Not so much. Really surprised that Coach K isn't shutting that down.

6) Elon is pretty bad. But I like the way we played.

7) MP3 may be the worst FT shooter I have ever seen. We can no longer make fun of UNC players' poor FT shooting. I mean, I think I have a better chance of winning the Mega Millions than MP3 hitting an FT this season.

[Merlindevildog91]

FWIW, MP3 made the four attempts I saw in practice this afternoon, and I only saw him take 4. Perhaps he needs his teammates to move around and create hubbub while he is at the line.

I didn't get a good look at the first FT, but the other 2 were straight on, just a little long. Having seen som Plumlees hit the sides of the rim, the backboard, nothing at all, I was a little heartened by that.

[Bay Area Duke Fan]

I liked seeing Rasheed play point guard again for several minutes in the second half. Hope that will continue.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

3) Andre Dawkins is our best 3pt shooter since JJ. I mean, this guy is just ridiculous. I think he's playing so much better for a number of reasons, one being that this is the first time that the opposing team needs to double team Jabari (and possibly Hood) and that really frees up AD. Plus, AD's release is so quick he barely needs space.
I feel like his release is MUCH quicker than it used to be. He's clearly worked on getting himself set and squaring his shoulders for a quick shot off screens. It's beautiful. It is JJ'esque.

[Kedsy]

Quinn now has 16 steals in his last 3 games.

Andre has the 7th best offensive rating in the country (best in the ACC).

Overall, a pretty good defensive effort. Bring on the ACC.

[dukelifer]

His inability to hit a FT is going to keep him off the floor in any crunch time of any game...and it might keep him off the floor in all games except those where we are looking at a certain win.

My biggest pet peeve with big men. Fortunately, Mason worked on his and really improved. Marshall had nothing to do but work on his throws while he rehabbed the foot. Really no excuse. He needs to be better. It can be done. Go underhand if nothing else works. It is practice and muscle memory. His stroke is not horrible- just needs to practice.

[sagegrouse]

My biggest pet peeve with big men. Fortunately, Mason worked on his and really improved. Marshall had nothing to do but work on his throws while he rehabbed the foot. Really no excuse. He needs to be better. It can be done. Go underhand if nothing else works. It is practice and muscle memory. His stroke is not horrible- just needs to practice.

He's not playing much. When he gets on the court, he is over-excited. That ain't no way to make FTs. If he calms down, they'll start falling.

[Kedsy]

Elon is pretty bad.


Well, they're a heck of a lot better than Vermont.

According to Pomeroy, Elon ranked #119 in the country. And while I don't think Pomeroy can be 100% relied on at this point in the season, that still puts Elon as much better than "pretty bad." Also, Elon was the pre-season favorite to win the Southern Conference, which means they have a decent chance at being an NCAAT team. Duke just made them look pretty bad, and that's progress for the Blue Devils.

[uh_no]

Well, they're a heck of a lot better than Vermont.

According to Pomeroy, Elon ranked #119 in the country. And while I don't think Pomeroy can be 100% relied on at this point in the season, that still puts Elon as much better than "pretty bad." Also, Elon was the pre-season favorite to win the Southern Conference, which means they have a decent chance at being an NCAAT team. Duke just made them look pretty bad, and that's progress for the Blue Devils.

i think we're nearly at the point when pre-season rankings are irrelevant in ken pom....and even if we're not 100% there, they mean pretty little at this point (given the higher weighting to more recent results). That said, if you mean that they won't accurately reflect how good a team is in march because teams still have a ways to go in the next 3 months, I agree with you....but that lack of confidence comes from the changing ability of teams, not because of some inherent flaw in ken-pom's system, IMO

[Troublemaker]

I'm looking forward to seeing Pomeroy's rankings tomorrow. I think the defense might crack the top 30 and Duke overall will crack the top 10.

Also, guys, I'm beginning to think final exam week may have affected our performance against Gardner-Webb.

Happy New Year, everyone!

[Gthoma2a]

I am not confident that I would make the poll right, but I will say that Dawkins was man of the match.

[nmduke2001]

I am not confident that I would make the poll right, but I will say that Dawkins was man of the match.

The first three that Dre missed, he was wide open for an alley-oop on the initial break. I would have loved to see him throw one down. Due to his shooting, people forget (and I think Dre forgets too) just how athletic he is.

[flyingdutchdevil]

The first three that Dre missed, he was wide open for an alley-oop on the initial break. I would have loved to see him throw one down. Due to his shooting, people forget (and I think Dre forgets too) just how athletic he is.

Athletic? Absolutely. But that athleticism rarely gets shown due to AD's poor handle. If he had the handle of, say, Gerald Henderson - a play with an okay but not great handle - AD would be long gone in the NBA.

Speaking of the NBA, AD will definitely be given a shot. Probably in the second round. His skill is way to valuable to not be given a second round pick.

[uh_no]

I'm looking forward to seeing Pomeroy's rankings tomorrow. I think the defense might crack the top 30 and Duke overall will crack the top 10.

Also, guys, I'm beginning to think final exam week may have affected our performance against Gardner-Webb.

Happy New Year, everyone!

kenpom reduces the effect of huge outliers in blowout cupcake games, mitigating the so called "wisconsin" effect.....duke played 30 points better on defense than their adjusted average for the season....and such a result would certainly be subject to the new formulas....so while we should see a bump, don't expect an astronomical improvement until we start showing the improved defense against more teams like UCLA which we don't easily outclass

[Gthoma2a]

The first three that Dre missed, he was wide open for an alley-oop on the initial break. I would have loved to see him throw one down. Due to his shooting, people forget (and I think Dre forgets too) just how athletic he is.

I know exactly what you mean. I have always noted his athletic ability since his freshman year, when he dunked on GT in the final of the ACC tourney (most people didn't know he had it in him; straight down the lane in a big game). Then, he went on to beat both Plumlees in a dunk contest. Not many people who can shoot like him (granted there are few) could do that. Not to mention that he has always had a habit of getting steals. Watch some of his earlier 20+ point games and it is steals and run-outs on a lot of the plays. He is better than people give him credit for, in a lot of ways (see the blocks in the last couple of games). My cheeks literally hurt during some of these games because I love seeing him play well. The smile and cackle are something that must drive my neighbors crazy. I have always felt like he was going to take off. Now, in his senior season, he's fully done it. Everyone sang the praises of Jabari, Hood and Rasheed, but it is great to see the old young gun has become a true senior leader. He has earned this season with his heart through his Duke career. It makes me so happy.

[dukelifer]

He's not playing much. When he gets on the court, he is over-excited. That ain't no way to make FTs. If he calms down, they'll start falling.

I don't disagree but I want to know that he makes 75% in practice. He needs to be that good when calm.

[CatDevil]

To anyone that attended the game today....

Did you notice Jabari changing his shoes at least three times? Maybe four? My son kept watching him and thought that was the coolest thing. I was more focused on the court action but wondered if he had this right:confused:

[gurufrisbee]

Elon isn't great, but they return all five starters - four seniors - from a winning team last year. THose type of teams rarely get blown out by anyone.

I still have zero idea why Tyler is A) starting and B) playing any minutes at all other than backing up Cook at PG. We absolutely don't need him at SG - Sheed and Dawkins are both playing terrifically there now.

The three headed center of Amile, Plumlee, and Josh is getting better and it needs to because it never was a good plan for those three guys to combine for just 40 minutes a night. They need to be more like 50 or even 60 so we can really battle on the boards. Of course we might be able to get that in 40 if Amile keeps rebounding like that and Plumlee keeps improving.

This team is still so good offensively that you know there are going to be a couple nights in ACC play where they shoot 65% from the floor, 50% from the arc, and top 100 points. I'm hoping for both games against NC and in the carrier dome (welcome to the ACC, orange) and Maryland (get the heck out of the ACC, whiny twerps).

[sagegrouse]

i think we're nearly at the point when pre-season rankings are irrelevant in ken pom....and even if we're not 100% there, they mean pretty little at this point (given the higher weighting to more recent results). That said, if you mean that they won't accurately reflect how good a team is in march because teams still have a ways to go in the next 3 months, I agree with you....but that lack of confidence comes from the changing ability of teams, not because of some inherent flaw in ken-pom's system, IMO

Well, to call up the ghosts of Aristotle and Plato, we know that KenPom has a forecasting system based on analysis of prior games. If the teams he covers evolve or change in unpredictable ways during the season, the system is likely to be bad -- even if perfectly conceived and executed.

Happy New Year, Sage

[uh_no]

Well, to call up the ghosts of Aristotle and Plato, we know that KenPom has a forecasting system based on analysis of prior games. If the teams he covers evolve or change in unpredictable ways during the season, the system is likely to be bad -- even if perfectly conceived and executed.

Happy New Year, Sage

yep. completely agree. but largely that is the exception at this point, and we can no longer say his ratings are bad because of preseason rankings or unconnectedness of the graph....the arguments have to be based on some fundamental change in the quality of the team, which we clearly have with a team like duke.

[Kedsy]

The three headed center of Amile, Plumlee, and Josh is getting better and it needs to because it never was a good plan for those three guys to combine for just 40 minutes a night. They need to be more like 50 or even 60 so we can really battle on the boards.

If you want Amile/Marshall/Josh to play 60 minutes, does that mean you want Jabari to play only 20 minutes? Or are you suggesting Jabari should play some SF, which he hasn't done all year? If the latter, do you really think that playing Amile/Marshall/Josh more minutes at the expense of Rodney/Andre/Rasheed is a good idea?

Personally, I think Amile/Marshall/Josh combining for 35 to 40 minutes is just fine.


yep. completely agree. but largely that is the exception at this point, and we can no longer say his ratings are bad because of preseason rankings or unconnectedness of the graph....the arguments have to be based on some fundamental change in the quality of the team, which we clearly have with a team like duke.

Is it really all connected at this point? I honestly don't know. Considering how much a couple of bad data points affect the numbers, I am a little dubious, but I admit my doubts could be misplaced.

[Goduke2010]

Is it really all connected at this point? I honestly don't know. Considering how much a couple of bad data points affect the numbers, I am a little dubious, but I admit my doubts could be misplaced.

Not sure if I'm following what you guys are referencing - the reliability of efficiency ratings this far into a season?

Don't know the intricacies of his efficiency formulas, but I suspect that a team working through a new defense with several new personnel has a lot of room for improvement after a handful of games. If we have a top 20 run-rate D by the end of ACC play, we're going to be a tough out.

[uh_no]

Is it really all connected at this point? I honestly don't know. Considering how much a couple of bad data points affect the numbers, I am a little dubious, but I admit my doubts could be misplaced.

only kenpom knows for sure, but this post from last year

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/preseason_ratings_why_weight

indicates that preseason rankings comprise only about 2 games at this time of year, which given duke has played 14, would be *only* about 12%, so perhaps my guess was off and I was slightly premature, as kenpom indicates that it's usually not until late january when preseason rankings weave their way out of the system (that said, preseason rankings were much higher than duke is currently....so we can't blame DUKE's ranking on that anyway), he discusses average motion of teams that out/under performed their preseason rankings, but there is no discussion of the standard deviation of the teams (i.e. how far do the teams move from now until the end of the year)

so yeah, perhaps i was a tad premature....but what i would love to see from a kenpom is a standard deviation by date.....or, given any point in the season, in what range can we expect this teams final ranking to be, which is really what we're discussing here.....if anyone knows of a blog post he's made about such things, i'd love to see it (or alternatively, if it is possible to access kenpom on arbitrary dates, i could do it myself)

[gurufrisbee]

If you want Amile/Marshall/Josh to play 60 minutes, does that mean you want Jabari to play only 20 minutes? Or are you suggesting Jabari should play some SF, which he hasn't done all year? If the latter, do you really think that playing Amile/Marshall/Josh more minutes at the expense of Rodney/Andre/Rasheed is a good idea?

Personally, I think Amile/Marshall/Josh combining for 35 to 40 minutes is just fine.
.

Well I don't think they would ever actually play 60 unless Duke was running away with the game and we could definitely have two of them out there together the entire second half. So in that sense, sixty might be a big much. But Jabari and Hood should not have to play 40 each. If they each play 32, I would love to see that the Amile/Marshall/Josh guys can step up and play their 40 plus 16 more. And truly I think we may need them too, in order to have the size to battle with several foes in conference play.

In my head, if it's a close game against a team with size, I'm thinking the time breaks down something like this:

C - all 40 to the three headed
PF - Jabari 32, the other 8 for the three headed
SF - Hood 32, the other 8 for the three headed (which really means Jabari sliding down) OR possibly Semi/Jones OR possibly Sheed/Dawkins
SG - Sheed 20, Dawkins 20
PG - Cook 32, Tyler 8

I'd totally rather have those minutes go to Dawkins or Semi or Jones or Sheed, but I just think we're going to need them to go to big guys to compete with bigger teams.

[WillJ]

He's not playing much. When he gets on the court, he is over-excited. That ain't no way to make FTs. If he calms down, they'll start falling.

Much discussion of MP3's free throw woes, and understandably so, but Amile Jefferson's is at 15 of 38 for the year, which is also problematic. I think his stroke actually looks worse than MP3's and, given his higher volume, I'm not sure his low success rate is attributable to nerves. It's a shame for both of them.

[greybeard]

My biggest pet peeve with big men. Fortunately, Mason worked on his and really improved. Marshall had nothing to do but work on his throws while he rehabbed the foot. Really no excuse. He needs to be better. It can be done. Go underhand if nothing else works. It is practice and muscle memory. His stroke is not horrible- just needs to practice.

I have not watched the last few games and did not pay too much attention to what I saw of his free throw shooting the one time I saw him miss a few. He struck me as disconnected.

Here's a hypothesis and a means for his figuring it out.

The connection between force imparted into the ground and back up through the body can get trapped; it needs to have some connection, the more the better, to arm extension and release. In Marshall's style, from my very brief observation, there was little.

Perhaps why: odds on that, from an extraordinarily early age, coaches singular point of emphasis, was to get the ball high and keep it there. Marshall had little time for play, exploring bringing it to other spots, being somewhat shorter through the body, starting with the knees (soft, pliant). "Get it up there, Marshall, hold it firm). The play was is essential. is essential. He knows how to sense and feel himself--many people are disconnected from that, they understand themselves from the outside in, which is how most people see others, and which is what coaches were demanding of him, in effect. But, he knows how.

Solution: it is not from the foul line. It begins from layup distance, and play. beginning from the regular, righty layup spot. Playing with starting with the ball at different heights, forehead, between nose and mouth, hairline; different release points, vectors out, different spacing between the feet, different hand placement, tonus of fingers, placement, placement of other hands. No regimen, and, when get bored, leave it. Go to another spot, do not try to grasp anything. Sense, feel, notice the arch and spin of the ball that results, if onto something, play with it some more, looking for better feel, see how doing much less than needed can produce the same results, leave it.

When get the knack of just exploring in this fashion, play from in front of the basket. How long at this, as long as it is interesting, fascinating. Do not play with boredom or frustration. Then a step back when you have one or more modes that show promise. No need to have "1" way of doing it well; quite to the contrary. He will chose one.

By time get three or four feet away, play with greater subtlety and one will emerge as best. Always play with more, with deviations to get different flight, feel, chose what like, what floats, nice arc. Doesn't take long. You have it from 4 feet, you have your shot. From the line, practice but still tweak. You will have it, and it will get better.

Coach can be around to give minimal guidance when get off course, but mostly to know when getting bored (habbit from years of "how to" coaching is to stay fixed on what "shown". Failure is "crucial" to the learning process. Failure is place of learning. Do not run completely away from that spot, tweak it until next emerges. Maybe coach is not very good idea at very beginning. MUST resist with giving "how to", except to extent, "maybe try it with right elbow out for a few, then elbow in an inch or two, no feedback as to which is better, it is for Marshall to sense, feel himself and see what is happening. to learn not be taught.

Can learn to shoot from different heights, feet positioned slightly differently, hands, elbows, etc. to go with different shots or same shots (they are all different). Explore. Own.

Improvement will happen very soon. Change if disengaged. Do not grab onto anything. You will come back to what somatically resonates and produces results that encourage.

Marshall will earn very quickly.

Just a hypothesis. I doubt that this has occurred to Marshall. I very strongly doubt that this will occur to shooting experts. They need to make themselves invisible, minimal, to encourage learning process. They are paid to do what they know, to make teacher and teaching important, not self learning.

Self learners who are great at it, especially as to specialty, Dre, might not apprehend "how" they do it. If they did, would apply it elsewhere. They just do it; probably assume everybody does. If asked, will show and explain how he shoots, not how he keeps learning, in all probability. Difficult to separate the two. From experience. Very. Cheers

[Kedsy]

Well I don't think they would ever actually play 60 unless Duke was running away with the game and we could definitely have two of them out there together the entire second half. So in that sense, sixty might be a big much. But Jabari and Hood should not have to play 40 each. If they each play 32, I would love to see that the Amile/Marshall/Josh guys can step up and play their 40 plus 16 more. And truly I think we may need them too, in order to have the size to battle with several foes in conference play.

In my head, if it's a close game against a team with size, I'm thinking the time breaks down something like this:

C - all 40 to the three headed
PF - Jabari 32, the other 8 for the three headed
SF - Hood 32, the other 8 for the three headed (which really means Jabari sliding down) OR possibly Semi/Jones OR possibly Sheed/Dawkins
SG - Sheed 20, Dawkins 20
PG - Cook 32, Tyler 8

I'd totally rather have those minutes go to Dawkins or Semi or Jones or Sheed, but I just think we're going to need them to go to big guys to compete with bigger teams.

I assume you're saying what you want to happen and not what you think Coach K is going to actually do. Having said that, I think expecting the SF minutes to go to power forwards is unrealistic, as is limiting current starter Tyler Thornton, who is playing 20+ mpg for the third straight season, to just 8 minutes a game. It may have happened to Greg Paulus, but that was due to his defensive deficiencies, which doesn't apply to Tyler at all.

Also, and admittedly these are less absolute, I'd expect Jabari, Rodney, and Quinn to play more than 32 minutes in close games, and I think there will be more minutes with none of Amile/Marshall/Josh on the floor than there will be with two of them (in other words we'll go small with Jabari/Rodney as our C/PF more often than we'll go big with two of Amile/Marshall/Josh with one of Jabari/Rodney at SF).

Ultimately, my guess is seeing the big-man trio combine for 43 and 47 minutes the past two games was a garbage-time anomaly and not a precursor of things to come. In close games I expect the three will combine for fewer than 40.

[jimrowe0]

I think sheed does a great job getting in the lane, but I really wish he would start pulling up and hitting short jumpers. He drives to the basket many times attempting to get fouled, but instead gets blocked or throws up a terrible shot. He has issues finishing through contact.

[gurufrisbee]

I assume you're saying what you want to happen and not what you think Coach K is going to actually do. Having said that, I think expecting the SF minutes to go to power forwards is unrealistic, as is limiting current starter Tyler Thornton, who is playing 20+ mpg for the third straight season, to just 8 minutes a game. It may have happened to Greg Paulus, but that was due to his defensive deficiencies, which doesn't apply to Tyler at all.

Also, and admittedly these are less absolute, I'd expect Jabari, Rodney, and Quinn to play more than 32 minutes in close games, and I think there will be more minutes with none of Amile/Marshall/Josh on the floor than there will be with two of them (in other words we'll go small with Jabari/Rodney as our C/PF more often than we'll go big with two of Amile/Marshall/Josh with one of Jabari/Rodney at SF).

Ultimately, my guess is seeing the big-man trio combine for 43 and 47 minutes the past two games was a garbage-time anomaly and not a precursor of things to come. In close games I expect the three will combine for fewer than 40.

100% what I want to happen - but only because I think it's likely what we NEED to happen to be at our best. SF minutes going to PF isn't really unrealistic, considering that right now the PF position is being played by a SF. And limiting Tyler to far less minutes is also not unrealistic - he's the 4th best guard on the team and his offensive deficiencies are every bit as glaring as Paulus's defensive ones were.

I agree - I think Jabari, Hood, and Cook will all play more than 32 minutes a game - but I think long term it will be best if they don't. I've seen a lot of guys wear down from high minutes come March and April.

You may be right that the three headed plays less than 40 - but I think we're in more trouble than good if that happens. We need more size, more rebounding, and more interior defense and if those guys aren't good enough to get on the floor and contribute that then we're starting off in a big hole.

[MChambers]

100% what I want to happen - but only because I think it's likely what we NEED to happen to be at our best. SF minutes going to PF isn't really unrealistic, considering that right now the PF position is being played by a SF. And limiting Tyler to far less minutes is also not unrealistic - he's the 4th best guard on the team and his offensive deficiencies are every bit as glaring as Paulus's defensive ones were.

I agree - I think Jabari, Hood, and Cook will all play more than 32 minutes a game - but I think long term it will be best if they don't. I've seen a lot of guys wear down from high minutes come March

So you think Parker is a small forward in today's college game? I don't see that. He's a big kid and would probably pick up fouls chasing most small forwards around. Not to mention that Coach K has usually chosen speed over size for his man-to-man defense.

Also, the wear down from high minutes thing: that's a common theme here, but it's hard to square with Duke's 2010 team.

[duke96]

FWIW, MP3 made the four attempts I saw in practice this afternoon, and I only saw him take 4. Perhaps he needs his teammates to move around and create hubbub while he is at the line.

I didn't get a good look at the first FT, but the other 2 were straight on, just a little long. Having seen som Plumlees hit the sides of the rim, the backboard, nothing at all, I was a little heartened by that.

I sure hope you missed him taking about 500 more at some point!

;)

[Potato Head]

My pet peeve is people who think everyone should make all their free throws, or that people can become good foul shooters just by practicing a lot. Free throws are hard. There's a whole psychological aspect to taking them that isn't really a factor with normal game shooting.

[sagegrouse]

Well I don't think they would ever actually play 60 unless Duke was running away with the game and we could definitely have two of them out there together the entire second half. So in that sense, sixty might be a big much. But Jabari and Hood should not have to play 40 each. If they each play 32, I would love to see that the Amile/Marshall/Josh guys can step up and play their 40 plus 16 more. And truly I think we may need them too, in order to have the size to battle with several foes in conference play.

In my head, if it's a close game against a team with size, I'm thinking the time breaks down something like this:

C - all 40 to the three headed
PF - Jabari 32, the other 8 for the three headed
SF - Hood 32, the other 8 for the three headed (which really means Jabari sliding down) OR possibly Semi/Jones OR possibly Sheed/Dawkins
SG - Sheed 20, Dawkins 20
PG - Cook 32, Tyler 8

I'd totally rather have those minutes go to Dawkins or Semi or Jones or Sheed, but I just think we're going to need them to go to big guys to compete with bigger teams.


I assume you're saying what you want to happen and not what you think Coach K is going to actually do. Having said that, I think expecting the SF minutes to go to power forwards is unrealistic, as is limiting current starter Tyler Thornton, who is playing 20+ mpg for the third straight season, to just 8 minutes a game. It may have happened to Greg Paulus, but that was due to his defensive deficiencies, which doesn't apply to Tyler at all.

Also, and admittedly these are less absolute, I'd expect Jabari, Rodney, and Quinn to play more than 32 minutes in close games, and I think there will be more minutes with none of Amile/Marshall/Josh on the floor than there will be with two of them (in other words we'll go small with Jabari/Rodney as our C/PF more often than we'll go big with two of Amile/Marshall/Josh with one of Jabari/Rodney at SF).

Ultimately, my guess is seeing the big-man trio combine for 43 and 47 minutes the past two games was a garbage-time anomaly and not a precursor of things to come. In close games I expect the three will combine for fewer than 40.

Holy, moly, Guru! Your prescription is 100 percent consistent with just trying to get the tallest players on the floor, with acknowledgement for a PG. Height doesn't make right. So you would prefer Amile, Jabari, Marshall to Amile, Marshall, Andre/Rasheed? That's kind of nuts, isn't it? We have Andre, Rasheed, Matt and Tyler to play "shooting guard" (remembering that Duke's O and D schemes do not use 1-2-3-4-5). Wouldn't it be great to have two of them on the court when Duke rests either Jabari or Rodney?

And if the other team has a tall back line, I'd be willing to bet that at least one of them is a stiff.

sage

[gurufrisbee]

So you think Parker is a small forward in today's college game? I don't see that. He's a big kid and would probably pick up fouls chasing most small forwards around. Not to mention that Coach K has usually chosen speed over size for his man-to-man defense.

Also, the wear down from high minutes thing: that's a common theme here, but it's hard to square with Duke's 2010 team.

Parker absolutely is a small forward. He can play the 4, but his game and body size is way more made up as a 3. He's a lot like Singler as a Duke reference. He can play either - and even the 5 sometimes, but the team and him are best if he can play the 3.

Choosing speed over size is great if you your pressure defense is creating lots of turnovers and your lack of size isn't exposing you to getting smashed on the boards. Whenever that starts this season, I'll be very happy to go right along with it.

Yes, there are always exceptions like the 2010 guys. If these guys are the same way, that's awesome. Odds are, they aren't. I wish we had a Scheyer, Smith, and Singler every season.


Holy, moly, Guru! Your prescription is 100 percent consistent with just trying to get the tallest players on the floor, with acknowledgement for a PG. Height doesn't make right. So you would prefer Amile, Jabari, Marshall to Amile, Marshall, Andre/Rasheed? That's kind of nuts, isn't it? We have Andre, Rasheed, Matt and Tyler to play "shooting guard" (remembering that Duke's O and D schemes do not use 1-2-3-4-5). Wouldn't it be great to have two of them on the court when Duke rests either Jabari or Rodney?

And if the other team has a tall back line, I'd be willing to bet that at least one of them is a stiff.

sage

Not really. You're not reading it accurately. I think it's pretty clear our five best players right now are Jabari, Cook, Hood, Dawkins, and Sheed. But even K will almost never run them all out there together. Even if we only have one big out there at a time we are getting pounded on the glass and teams are driving to the rim with no fear of defensive help coming. And we're not even into the ACC schedule when the teams generally are bigger and better. What I hope for is that Amile/Plumlee/Hairston EARN the right to combine for 50-60 minutes, because I believe the team needs that size on the court to defend bigger teams and not get eaten up on the glass. Even a stiff, if he's big, is causing us a lot of grief when Hood or Sheed or Dawkins is trying to stop them inside.

[Philadukie]

I think sheed does a great job getting in the lane, but I really wish he would start pulling up and hitting short jumpers. He drives to the basket many times attempting to get fouled, but instead gets blocked or throws up a terrible shot. He has issues finishing through contact.

I really wish Sheed would start using his 8'-10' pull-up again. I thought it was his most effective offensive move last year. It's very difficult to defend. Of course, it's also very difficult to do -- it takes extraordinary skill to suddenly stop, pull-up, and release with "touch" after beating a defender at full speed. But it's an awesome weapon that he should look to use more frequently, since he's demonstrated that he's capable.

[sagegrouse]

Parker absolutely is a small forward.

I think it's pretty clear our five best players right now are Jabari, Cook, Hood, Dawkins, and Sheed.

Even a stiff, if he's big, is causing us a lot of grief when Hood or Sheed or Dawkins is trying to stop them inside.

There is a difference between certitude and certainty. And I am certain I disagree with all three of these statements.

[gurufrisbee]

There is a difference between certitude and certainty. And I am certain I disagree with all three of these statements.

The world would be a more boring place if we all agreed about everything.

I am curious who you would say right now is playing better than one of the five guys I listed.

And I'm quite tired of Clancy Rugg, Karrington Ward, De'Mon Brooks, Hector Harold, and Jerome Hill looking like all americans against us. I'm certain of that.

[MChambers]

So you think Jabari is a small forward, but he's the biggest of our best five, so he should play center? I'm very confused.

And although I agree that freshman Singler is somewhat like freshman Parker, Singler didn't play small forward until he a junior. And he was a fair superior defender than Parker.

[Des Esseintes]

Parker absolutely is a small forward. He can play the 4, but his game and body size is way more made up as a 3. He's a lot like Singler as a Duke reference. He can play either - and even the 5 sometimes, but the team and him are best if he can play the 3.


Parker is the biggest guy on the team aside from Marshall. Is there a squad in college basketball with a guy 6'8", 235 playing small forward? I'm betting the answer is no.

More importantly, why would Duke this very stupid thing you advocate?

Playing Parker at the 3 destroys offensive spacing. At the 4, he goes against another team's power forward, who almost certainly cannot keep up with him on the perimeter. At the 3, a smaller, quicker guy is on him, which mitigates his perimeter advantage. He could post that guys up--except that now whoever is playing 4 and 5 for Duke, say Amile and Marshall, lacks an outside shot. They are either bunched around the basket, so Jabari cannot operate; or they go out near the three line, where they can no longer rebound and where their defenders don't even follow because they aren't threats from out there. So there is a thicket of interior defenders for Jabari to go through where there wasn't before. Way easier to double-team him without freeing up Duke guys in dangerous spots. We are weaker on both the inside and the outside because Jabari is playing the position for which he is "absolutely" appropriate.

What makes this idea extra ridiculous is that we already have a gigantic 3 in Hood. Hood is so tall that he can play a small-ball 4, with Jabari at the 5 and run teams out of the gym offensively. Not anymore, though. Now Rodney is a 2, and Duke's perimeter defensive speed is shot. Rodney could exploit his size advantage on the opposing 2, but again, our spacing is totally compromised now, and there is no room for him to post up down low. Duke loses a bunch more games, but at least everyone is playing their NBA position. They hand out trophies for that, right? Hooray! Natural NBA Position title, here we come!

[sagegrouse]

The world would be a more boring place if we all agreed about everything.

I am curious who you would say right now is playing better than one of the five guys I listed.

And I'm quite tired of Clancy Rugg, Karrington Ward, De'Mon Brooks, Hector Harold, and Jerome Hill looking like all americans against us. I'm certain of that.

I agree with you on -- duh! -- Jabari, Rodney and Quinn. Amile and Tyler would be my next two. Andre is "instant offense," but contributes less in other areas than the five listed by me. Rasheed, whom I was the only one to select as MOTM vs. Elon, has one good game and one OK game to his credit. Tyler is the heart and soul of our defense. Amile is showing what he did last year, plus greater physical strength on defense.

On our other two points of disagreement, I think the beefy, probably 6-9, Jabari is one helluva college power forward. And, yep, he can play the other positions as well.

A "stiff," as I understand the term, plays because of his size, which helps a bit with defense and rebounding, and has no offensive moves.

Happy New Year,

Sage

[gurufrisbee]

So you think Jabari is a small forward, but he's the biggest of our best five, so he should play center? I'm very confused.

And although I agree that freshman Singler is somewhat like freshman Parker, Singler didn't play small forward until he a junior. And he was a fair superior defender than Parker.

Well no one said or implied that at all (in fact, very much the opposite), so all you've really proven here is an inability to read.

Singler played small forward when it was best for Duke for him to do so. All that I've ever suggested is the exact same thing with Parker.


Parker is the biggest guy on the team aside from Marshall. Is there a squad in college basketball with a guy 6'8", 235 playing small forward? I'm betting the answer is no.

More importantly, why would Duke this very stupid thing you advocate?

Playing Parker at the 3 destroys offensive spacing. At the 4, he goes against another team's power forward, who almost certainly cannot keep up with him on the perimeter. At the 3, a smaller, quicker guy is on him, which mitigates his perimeter advantage. He could post that guys up--except that now whoever is playing 4 and 5 for Duke, say Amile and Marshall, lacks an outside shot. They are either bunched around the basket, so Jabari cannot operate; or they go out near the three line, where they can no longer rebound and where their defenders don't even follow because they aren't threats from out there. So there is a thicket of interior defenders for Jabari to go through where there wasn't before. Way easier to double-team him without freeing up Duke guys in dangerous spots. We are weaker on both the inside and the outside because Jabari is playing the position for which he is "absolutely" appropriate.

What makes this idea extra ridiculous is that we already have a gigantic 3 in Hood. Hood is so tall that he can play a small-ball 4, with Jabari at the 5 and run teams out of the gym offensively. Not anymore, though. Now Rodney is a 2, and Duke's perimeter defensive speed is shot. Rodney could exploit his size advantage on the opposing 2, but again, our spacing is totally compromised now, and there is no room for him to post up down low. Duke loses a bunch more games, but at least everyone is playing their NBA position. They hand out trophies for that, right? Hooray! Natural NBA Position title, here we come!

Off the top of my head - Arizona, Kansas, Baylor, Syracuse all start guys that big at the 3.

More importantly, despite your efforts to just be insulting, you also only succeeded in proving you can't read. It wasn't being advocated - it was being wished for in that hoping the bigger guys would play well enough to warrant more time of having two of them on the floor at the same time and when that happened, then one option would indeed be moving Jabari to the 3 for those small number of minutes.

Your doomsday scenario also fails because it assumes those guys haven't earned their spots and are totally useless.

And your "gigantic" 3 in Hood is a terrible rebounder and offers nothing resembling front court defense.

But by all means let's keep running our line up that is vastly undersized and getting killed in the paint and on the glass - because they hand out trophies for that, too.

[gurufrisbee]

I agree with you on -- duh! -- Jabari, Rodney and Quinn. Amile and Tyler would be my next two. Andre is "instant offense," but contributes less in other areas than the five listed by me. Rasheed, whom I was the only one to select as MOTM vs. Elon, has one good game and one OK game to his credit. Tyler is the heart and soul of our defense. Amile is showing what he did last year, plus greater physical strength on defense.

On our other two points of disagreement, I think the beefy, probably 6-9, Jabari is one helluva college power forward. And, yep, he can play the other positions as well.

A "stiff," as I understand the term, plays because of his size, which helps a bit with defense and rebounding, and has no offensive moves.

Happy New Year,

Sage

I'll grant you I was kind of torn on Sheed vs. Amile for the 5th spot. Tyler is a very distant #7.

Jabari is talented enough he'll be a great college player at whatever position he wants to play.

Stiff might have been an overexaggeration, but we're still getting beaten by bigs inside who aren't that big and aren't THAT great and it's because we don't have the size to play solid interior defense or rebound enough.

Happy New Year

[sagegrouse]

I'll grant you I was kind of torn on Sheed vs. Amile for the 5th spot. Tyler is a very distant #7.

Jabari is talented enough he'll be a great college player at whatever position he wants to play.

Stiff might have been an overexaggeration, but we're still getting beaten by bigs inside who aren't that big and aren't THAT great and it's because we don't have the size to play solid interior defense or rebound enough.

Happy New Year

Here's my post from the Andre thread:


Maybe it's as simple as: Tyler, Josh and Quinn are excellent at playing Duke defense. Amile, Jabari, Rodney, Marshall, Matt, Andre, and Semi are (or were) somewhat lost. Rasheed has been on the bench for a variety of reasons. Rodney and Jabari HAVE to play, in order for our offense to be effective. I don't think K is willing to go to battle with only one starter -- Quinn-- understanding and able to play Duke defense.

Let me restate it: Jabari and Rodney, while improving, have been playing substandard defense. And Amile, plus others, have been unimpressive. Tyler is on the floor to direct the defense and try to keep everyone together. In this role it doesn't matter how anyone ranks him as an individual player -- it's a team game -- and he's needed. Josh fulfills much the same function, but I don't believe he is as important as TT.

And, of course, you realize your argument is not with El Urogallo, Sage Grouse, but with El Jefe, Coach K.

In terms of getting abused by larger front lines: Well, there has been a change to the Duke defensive scheme the last five games from the first of the season. K (and I can't find the direct quote) said that we are not setting up as far out as we were and that has helped our overall defense.

Duke has been winning with smaller teams throughout K's tenure. Yep, it would be great to grab more rebounds, but the tradeoff is to keep the other team from getting good shots.

[Des Esseintes]

Off the top of my head - Arizona, Kansas, Baylor, Syracuse all start guys that big at the 3.
Kansas starts Wiggins at the 3. He's 35 pounds lighter than Jabari.
Syracuse starts CJ Fair. He's 20 pounds lighter than Jabari.
Baylor starts 6'6", 220 pound Royce O'Neal. Significantly lighter and shorter than Jabari.
These guys are all much closer to Rodney than to Jabari.

But hey! You are correct about Arizona. Arizona is also the probably the biggest team in the country, so I don't know why they should be some sort of normative standard. You got your one (1) team who has a small forward as large as Jabari Parker, though.


More importantly, despite your efforts to just be insulting, you also only succeeded in proving you can't read. It wasn't being advocated - it was being wished for in that hoping the bigger guys would play well enough to warrant more time of having two of them on the floor at the same time and when that happened, then one option would indeed be moving Jabari to the 3 for those small number of minutes.

Your doomsday scenario also fails because it assumes those guys haven't earned their spots and are totally useless.
No, it does not assume Marshall and Amile are useless. "Earning minutes" is not synonymous with "strong outside jump shot." Amile's strength is slinky inside scoring. Marshall's strength is back-to-the-basket post offense. Putting them out near the three point stripe neutralizes their natural gifts and demands they be something they aren't. Why would we do that just to put a terrific post scorer in Parker at the 3?


And your "gigantic" 3 in Hood is a terrible rebounder and offers nothing resembling front court defense.

But by all means let's keep running our line up that is vastly undersized and getting killed in the paint and on the glass - because they hand out trophies for that, too.

I don't understand your complaint at all. A huge part of our early defensive frailty lay in failure to contain on the perimeter. Putting Jabari on perimeter defense exacerbates that problem. Moreover, it takes our second-best rebounder and carries him out of prime rebounding position. Whatever gain made from a better rebounding SF in Jabari is lost in the interior rebounding weakness caused by losing Jabari at C or PF. And, again, our offensive spacing craters with this "fix" you're pushing. It's much like Crow T. Robot trying to tunnel his way back to Earth (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0117128/quotes?item=qt0266295) from the space station. "Hey, Mike, you think you can toss me my calculations? Thanks! Ah, here it is. BREACH HULL, ALL DIE. Even had it underlined." And, "Well believe me, Mike, I calculated the odds of this succeeding versus the odds I was doing something incredibly stupid... and I went ahead anyway."

[Kedsy]

Choosing speed over size is great if you your pressure defense is creating lots of turnovers and your lack of size isn't exposing you to getting smashed on the boards. Whenever that starts this season, I'll be very happy to go right along with it.


I don't know what games you've been watching. For the season so far, Duke has grabbed 71.8% of available defensive rebounds. That's the best Duke mark in at least 18 seasons, and currently ranks as the 65th best in the country. So it has already started this season. Perhaps you missed it while you were ranting about us getting smashed on the boards without any corresponding evidence.

[jipops]

I mean we start a tiny, tiny front court that is 6-8,6-8,6-7. Shouldn't we just assume we are getting smashed on the boards, no matter what the stats might say?

Of note, our '99 front court was 6-8,6-8,6-6.

[FerryFor50]

My pet peeve is people who think everyone should make all their free throws, or that people can become good foul shooters just by practicing a lot. Free throws are hard. There's a whole psychological aspect to taking them that isn't really a factor with normal game shooting.

I disagree. Free throws are easy. The psychological aspect to them is based on that very premise - how does one, at a high level of competitive basketball, miss a shot that isn't far away and is unguarded?

However, it's less of a concern when a big that can't shoot jumpers (like Amile or MP3) misses a FT than when a deadeye 3pt specialist misses them.

[wilko]

Free throws are hard. There's a whole psychological aspect to taking them that isn't really a factor with normal game shooting.

I think the thought becomes "don't miss" at the line so of course they then they DO miss...
A better technique of shoot FT's would be have a private practice with your favorite co-ed to line up a few feet under the basket... Think strip-shot. A made shot an article of clothing is removed... miss and it is put back on..

Positive reinforcement (of a Ms) to replace fear of a Miss...

[Kedsy]

I disagree. Free throws are easy. The psychological aspect to them is based on that very premise - how does one, at a high level of competitive basketball, miss a shot that isn't far away and is unguarded?

However, it's less of a concern when a big that can't shoot jumpers (like Amile or MP3) misses a FT than when a deadeye 3pt specialist misses them.

I disagree with both of you. Free throws aren't easy, and the psychological component of trying to make one in a game situation while thousands of people are watching is huge.

That said, of course you can improve your free throw shooting by practicing. You have to learn proper form first, but if you practice enough you can at least become adequate and probably better than that. One issue with players at this level is they only have a finite amount of practice time and they have lots of things to work on in addition to free throws.

[vick]

I don't know what games you've been watching. For the season so far, Duke has grabbed 71.8% of available defensive rebounds. That's the best Duke mark in at least 18 seasons, and currently ranks as the 65th best in the country. So it has already started this season. Perhaps you missed it while you were ranting about us getting smashed on the boards without any corresponding evidence.

It would be, I believe, the best since at least 1987, when the GoDuke.com stats include ORB and DRB reliably, although it's of course a fair question whether it will hold up at this level as the conference schedule progresses.

At any rate, I don't think the strongest argument against playing Parker at small forward is that he can't do it--he's only listed as five pounds bigger than Kyle Singler was in 2010 (I'm not sure I really believe that myself, but Kenpom has it at 230 for Singler and 235 for Parker). But Jefferson/Hairston/MP3 are not yet the players that Zoubek and Thomas were, and we're deeper at guard than that year as well, so it doesn't make much lineup sense to me.

[dukelifer]

My pet peeve is people who think everyone should make all their free throws, or that people can become good foul shooters just by practicing a lot. Free throws are hard. There's a whole psychological aspect to taking them that isn't really a factor with normal game shooting.

Sure hitting all your free throws is not possible. Hitting more than 50% is possible with practice. Over the last 60 years- the average player hits 69% of his throws. That percentage has stayed relatively steady. The NBA players shoot around 75%. Yes hitting every shot is hard but Marshall is currently 0 for 15 in two seasons. I think with hard work he can be better but he will never be JJ - and JJ will never be 100%

[MChambers]

Well no one said or implied that at all (in fact, very much the opposite), so all you've really proven here is an inability to read.

Singler played small forward when it was best for Duke for him to do so. All that I've ever suggested is the exact same thing.
Wow, snark much? Seems uncalled for, but at least you've matched your tone with your substantive analysis.

[duke96]

My pet peeve is people who think everyone should make all their free throws, or that people can become good foul shooters just by practicing a lot. Free throws are hard. There's a whole psychological aspect to taking them that isn't really a factor with normal game shooting.

I guess i missed the post where someone said that everyone should make all their free throws, but congrats on making the insightful counterpoint.

If the rest of your point is that it peeves you when people think practicing free throws makes you a better free throw shooter, then you I guess you must be peeved a lot.

[Cameron]

I think sheed does a great job getting in the lane, but I really wish he would start pulling up and hitting short jumpers. He drives to the basket many times attempting to get fouled, but instead gets blocked or throws up a terrible shot. He has issues finishing through contact.

This is an excellent point. Rasheed often takes one or two more dribbles than necessary when driving to the basket. If he could just implement that Chris Duhon floater from about six to eight feet into his arsenal of shots, Rasheed would be a much more efficient scorer off the bounce. He's just not strong or crafty enough -- yet -- to finish at the rim with regularity the way a guy like Jason Williams could. Jason was built like a compact car, incredibly sturdy and tough. As you say, many times after getting to the basket Rasheed is too far underneath the rim to do anything productive with the ball, frequently leading to the ball being stripped or a blocked shot.

Also, while he's done a better job of this since rejoining the regular rotation a few games ago, Rasheed could really help the team -- and himself -- by actively looking to share the ball with his teammates more on drive and kicks. He's got a great first step, which lends well to that sort of play. Too often, he puts his head down and appears on a mission to get to the basket to score come hell or high water. Teams know that. And as such they are able to send help defenders his way in such scenarios without much cause for concern. If he starts to look for open shooters with more frequency when driving, defenses will recognize that threat and he'll in turn open things up for himself offensively as well.

As stated, Rasheed's done a much better job at this recently, and his numbers reflect that. In the first five games of the season, Rasheed tallied just three assists. He has nine over the last three games. A big improvement. I don't think it's a coincidence that his improvement in that area has coincided with much better overall play over the past few games.

[Clay Feet POF]

Have you all heard of Dr Tom Amberry?

[gurufrisbee]

Wow, snark much? Seems uncalled for, but at least you've matched your tone with your substantive analysis.

Hilarious since you were the one of the two of us who went to that first. And it's very much a compliment taken to hear you dislike my analysis.

[gurufrisbee]

Kansas starts Wiggins at the 3. He's 35 pounds lighter than Jabari.
Syracuse starts CJ Fair. He's 20 pounds lighter than Jabari.
Baylor starts 6'6", 220 pound Royce O'Neal. Significantly lighter and shorter than Jabari.
These guys are all much closer to Rodney than to Jabari.

But hey! You are correct about Arizona. Arizona is also the probably the biggest team in the country, so I don't know why they should be some sort of normative standard. You got your one (1) team who has a small forward as large as Jabari Parker, though.
"

Wiggins and Fair are essentially the same size as Parker.
Baylor plays Gathers more than ONeal and he's decently bigger.
So given they were off the top of my head, all four of the four I suggested absolutely fit.

The rest of what you wrote is rude and/or complete gibberish. Troll someone else.

[tommy]

Off the top of my head - Arizona, Kansas, Baylor, Syracuse all start guys that big at the 3.


Kansas starts Wiggins at the 3. He's 35 pounds lighter than Jabari.
Syracuse starts CJ Fair. He's 20 pounds lighter than Jabari.
Baylor starts 6'6", 220 pound Royce O'Neal. Significantly lighter and shorter than Jabari.
These guys are all much closer to Rodney than to Jabari.

But hey! You are correct about Arizona. Arizona is also the probably the biggest team in the country, so I don't know why they should be some sort of normative standard. You got your one (1) team who has a small forward as large as Jabari Parker, though.

And Arizona didn't kill us on the boards either, even with that big team. They outrebounded us by 8 on the official stat sheet, but they got 5 defensive boards off of missed Duke free throws, while we only got one off of their missed free throws. Those are gimme rebounds, which say next to nothing about a team's size and/or rebounding ability. To me, they should be excluded from consideration of a team's rebounding numbers. If you do that, and therefore take away Arizona's net +4 in that department, they only outrebounded us by 4 boards total. Big deal.

Note the same was true of the Kansas game. They out rebounded us on the stat sheet by a lot more than did Arizona, but as I detailed in my post which you can find here (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?32396-Duke-s-Defensive-Rebounding-Numbers-That-Matter&p=680162#post680162), not only did they get a significant + on the rebounding of missed FT's (we missed a LOT that night) but they also got credited for a lot of defensive rebounds which had nothing to do with their size or rebounding ability -- they were kind of random plays that got counted as defensive rebounds. So while yes, they beat us on the boards, it wasn't nearly as bad as a glance at the raw numbers in the box score would suggest.

This Blue Devils team, starting a skinny 6'9" guy at center much of the time, without a true center, has not been truly dominated on the boards yet this season. That could change in the ACC season, but the expectation that many had coming into the year, that this was going to be a glaring weakness for us, has thus far not come to fruition.


But by all means let's keep running our line up that is vastly undersized and getting killed in the paint and on the glass - because they hand out trophies for that, too.

Not only have we not been getting killed on the glass, but we haven't been getting killed in the paint either. There is an entire thread on this board devoted to demonstrating that as well. The vast majority of big man scoring against us has come from our perimeter players' failure to cut off dribble penetration, which results in our interior defenders having to come over and help, leaving their big men open for dumpoffs and other inside plays that make their stats look better but have nothing to do with our inside players being weak defensively.


Wiggins and Fair are essentially the same size as Parker.

The rest of what you wrote is rude and/or complete gibberish. Troll someone else.

Have you stood next to Jabari Parker and Andrew Wiggins? Probably not, because if you had, you would not have made that statement. Parker is HUGE. Wiggins is not only a little shorter, but his body is not nearly as thick and developed as is Jabari's. Not close.

And listen, you're a guy who has been on these boards less than two months, with a grand total of 60 posts to your credit. Little piece of advice: don't come in talking like this, making accusations and calling guys names. You haven't earned the right, and frankly, this isn't supposed to be that kind of place. Des Esseintes has been doing this awhile, and is recognized around here as a thoughtful and smart basketball observer, and is always respectful of others. Everyone should feel free to disagree, and argue their points vigorously, but don't make personal attacks, especially when you don't know who you're talking to and what his reputation is around here.

[kAzE]

I think sheed does a great job getting in the lane, but I really wish he would start pulling up and hitting short jumpers. He drives to the basket many times attempting to get fouled, but instead gets blocked or throws up a terrible shot. He has issues finishing through contact.

I disagree with your general premise here. Sulaimon does have issues finishing through contact, that's for sure, but one of the strengths of his game is the ability to get deep in the paint, and either get fouled on a shot attempt or find a cutting teammate for an assist. It puts a lot of pressure on the defense to constantly have to defend multiple players attacking the rim and getting their bigs in foul trouble.

I'm not saying he should NEVER pull up, obviously if there's 3 guys in your path to the hoop, or if Serge Ibaka is sitting on the weak side getting ready to smack the crap out of your shot, then pull up, but otherwise, pulling up from mid-range bails out the opposing defense and is a much lower percentage play than a hard drive to the rim. Granted, he misses a fair number of shots at the rim, but I'd rather him keep attacking than pulling up. It's just a more efficient play overall, in my opinion. You might miss the shot and not get fouled, but that would be the same result as a missed pull up jumper. At least with the hard drive, there's a chance to pick up a foul on the other team and get a trip to the free throw line. Also, when he gets deep in the paint, he usually draws a second defender his way, meaning he has a good chance to find an open teammate with his superb passing ability.

So if he could pick his spots a bit better, and not drive in to 3 or 4 guys, that would be great, but in general, I think he should attack whenever possible.

[greybeard]

I disagree with your general premise here. Sulaimon does have issues finishing through contact, that's for sure, but one of the strengths of his game is the ability to get deep in the paint, and either get fouled on a shot attempt or find a cutting teammate for an assist. It puts a lot of pressure on the defense to constantly have to defend multiple players attacking the rim and getting their bigs in foul trouble.

I'm not saying he should NEVER pull up, obviously if there's 3 guys in your path to the hoop, or if Serge Ibaka is sitting on the weak side getting ready to smack the crap out of your shot, then pull up, but otherwise, pulling up from mid-range bails out the opposing defense and is a much lower percentage play than a hard drive to the rim. Granted, he misses a fair number of shots at the rim, but I'd rather him keep attacking than pulling up. It's just a more efficient play overall, in my opinion. You might miss the shot and not get fouled, but that would be the same result as a missed pull up jumper. At least with the hard drive, there's a chance to pick up a foul on the other team and get a trip to the free throw line. Also, when he gets deep in the paint, he usually draws a second defender his way, meaning he has a good chance to find an open teammate with his superb passing ability.

So if he could pick his spots a bit better, and not drive in to 3 or 4 guys, that would be great, but in general, I think he should attack whenever possible.

Modulate speeds and bring it wider from the rim. Compare the early, first 2 years of Nolan with the last 2.

Also, a pull up, aka Jordan, along with a hesitation "as if to pull up and go" move would be great for this guy to add to his game.

[greybeard]

Sure hitting all your free throws is not possible. Hitting more than 50% is possible with practice. Over the last 60 years- the average player hits 69% of his throws. That percentage has stayed relatively steady. The NBA players shoot around 75%. Yes hitting every shot is hard but Marshall is currently 0 for 15 in two seasons. I think with hard work he can be better but he will never be JJ - and JJ will never be 100%

It is not the intensity of work that matters it is the how. Most of what is learned, really engrained, is first taken in somatically, through, into the body/nervous system/mind as a sensory memory, one that has no words, or in which no words are needed. Then, and this is the kicker, once you have that memory you learn MORE from playing "imagine" than by actual practice, though that certainly has it's place. Imagine involves picturing, sensing, feeling the shoot from contact with the floor through the top of your head, the all of it, the more complete, the better. The imagination invokes the sensations, sequence, initiation points, pathways, sequence, timing, speed, intensity etc of movements, they are experienced. Walking to class, watching TV, etc. That is where learning is accelerated.

Hard work increases the intensity of sensation and decreases one's ability to discern what you are feeling and sensing that makes a difference; it impedes learning.

We see other's perform in shapes--that is a good looking stroke, that sucks. We experience ourselves as sentient beings from the inside out, sensations, feelings. How to instructions and working to achieve goals, without the baseline feel of how we are doing what we intend is a very, very unproductive way to learn a new physical skill. It is particularly difficult to overcome a habituated approach. I learned new shots, or worked on honing my shot if it needed it, by shooting lefty, doing the shot relying solely on the form and feel of it, from within 2-5 feet. There is no meaningful old stuff to get out of the way. When I "got" it lefty, it transferred to the right automatically.

The question, why won't poor habits transfer from the strong to the weak side is easy. The brain/nervous system is attracted to what feels good, what works with ultimate ease because all the machines involved are in sync and we know, again on a non verbal level the feel of every aspect of it all through us (optimally). On our strong side, we often settle for styles that have us getting in our own way but nevertheless, these big time athletes, can use their acuity and physical equipment to literally push through their own obstacles. As "nice" a shot that this self sabotaging action produces, fundamentally there is an element that is disturbing, not right. That does not transfer unless you force it upon the other side. But, if you appreciate something about what you are after and know that it should be easy and very effective, take less effort than you can imagine, you will have a much less encumbered way to learn something new.

Many of us, probably most all of us, are unable to comprehend ourselves from the inside out with respect to certain aspects of self use. We all have incomplete "self images" as it were, places where we are quite vague or completely in the dark as to involvement. You then need to grab onto where there is awareness and expand from there.

This really is not nearly as complicated as it sounds.

Practicing hard when you do not know HOW to do what you want will not produce the result you are after, which is to know how to do what you want. It will not happen. At best, a very poor approximation.

Learning is fun and interesting or it does not happen. When basketball players are working hard into the night shooting 5000 jump shots, anybody really believe that that is "work?" I didn't think so.

[kAzE]

I don't have the stats to back this up, but just from the eye test, I'm willing to bet that over his career, Sulaimon gets to the foul line at a higher rate (per shot attempt) than anyone on the team not named Jabari. In the Easterm Michigan game alone, he had 11 free throw attempts, of which he hit 9. That's a ton of fouls on the other team, and that kind of play gets us in the bonus early in halves. That's how you win close games.

[Kedsy]

I don't have the stats to back this up, but just from the eye test, I'm willing to bet that over his career, Sulaimon gets to the foul line at a higher rate (per shot attempt) than anyone on the team not named Jabari. In the Easterm Michigan game alone, he had 11 free throw attempts, of which he hit 9. That's a ton of fouls on the other team, and that kind of play gets us in the bonus early in halves. That's how you win close games.

Rasheed's career free throw rate is 39.7. For the season so far, his free throw rate is 58.4.

Jabari's free throw rate is 37.3. Rodney's free throw rate this season is 47.5 (higher than Rasheed's career rate but lower than his season-so-far rate). Interestingly, at Mississippi State, Rodney's FTR was a paltry 14.2. Quinn's FTR this season is 27.4. And here's one you wouldn't expect: Tyler's FTR so far this season is 37.0. His career rate is 42.3, better than Rasheed's career rate. And another: Amile's FTR is 73.0, and his career rate is 54.1, both numbers way higher than Rasheed's. And a third: Josh's FTR this season is 55.0, almost as high as Rasheed's; his career rate is 41.0, a little higher than Rasheed's. Marshall's FTR in limited minutes is 100.0 this season and also 100.0 for his career. Matt's FTR is 83.3. Semi's FTR is 58.3, essentially the same as Rasheed's this season, but higher than his career rate. Nick Pagliuca's FTR is infinity!

So, while Rasheed does get to the foul line a fair amount, you'd lose your bet; of Duke's 11 recruited scholarship players, Rasheed's career rate would actually rank in the bottom half of our roster compared to our players' season rates so far. Interestingly, contrary to your assumption, Jabari ranks even lower, almost at the bottom of our roster among this-season numbers (essentially tied with Tyler and above only Quinn and Andre, whose FTR is 18.8).

[gus]

I think the thought becomes "don't miss" at the line so of course they then they DO miss...
A better technique of shoot FT's would be have a private practice with your favorite co-ed to line up a few feet under the basket... Think strip-shot. A made shot an article of clothing is removed... miss and it is put back on..

Positive reinforcement (of a Ms) to replace fear of a Miss...

Marshall must have an eskimo fetish.

[kAzE]

Rasheed's career free throw rate is 39.7. For the season so far, his free throw rate is 58.4.

Jabari's free throw rate is 37.3. Rodney's free throw rate this season is 47.5 (higher than Rasheed's career rate but lower than his season-so-far rate). Interestingly, at Mississippi State, Rodney's FTR was a paltry 14.2. Quinn's FTR this season is 27.4. And here's one you wouldn't expect: Tyler's FTR so far this season is 37.0. His career rate is 42.3, better than Rasheed's career rate. And another: Amile's FTR is 73.0, and his career rate is 54.1, both numbers way higher than Rasheed's. And a third: Josh's FTR this season is 55.0, almost as high as Rasheed's; his career rate is 41.0, a little higher than Rasheed's. Marshall's FTR in limited minutes is 100.0 this season and also 100.0 for his career. Matt's FTR is 83.3. Semi's FTR is 58.3, essentially the same as Rasheed's this season, but higher than his career rate. Nick Pagliuca's FTR is infinity!

So, while Rasheed does get to the foul line a fair amount, you'd lose your bet; of Duke's 11 recruited scholarship players, Rasheed's career rate would actually rank in the bottom half of our roster compared to our players' season rates so far. Interestingly, contrary to your assumption, Jabari ranks even lower, almost at the bottom of our roster among this-season numbers (essentially tied with Tyler and above only Quinn and Andre, whose FTR is 18.8).

Well, I guess that's what I get for not showing a little bit more initiative. I guess what I meant to say what that he makes more free throws than most other guys on the team while he's on the floor, which is true, but I still overestimated him a bit. He's 4th on the team in free throws made per minute played (0.118), behind Parker (0.137), Hood (0.134), and surprisingly, Matt Jones (.142). Last year, he was also 4th, behind MP2, Kelly, and Curry. Obviously, he is capable of thriving as the 4th option on our team's offense and still getting to the foul line with some regularity. Suffice it to say, slashing to the hoop is definitely one of the stronger parts of his game. He's pretty athletic, and he's a pretty good free throw shooter, so I'm fine with him going hard in the paint when the opportunity presents itself.

[Kedsy]

Well, I guess that's what I get for not showing a little bit more initiative. I guess what I meant to say what that he makes more free throws than most other guys on the team while he's on the floor, which is true, but I still overestimated him a bit. He's 4th on the team in free throws made per minute played (0.118), behind Parker (0.137), Hood (0.134), and surprisingly, Matt Jones (.142). Last year, he was also 4th, behind MP2, Kelly, and Curry. Obviously, he is capable of thriving as the 4th option on our team's offense and still getting to the foul line with some regularity. Suffice it to say, slashing to the hoop is definitely one of the stronger parts of his game. He's pretty athletic, and he's a pretty good free throw shooter, so I'm fine with him going hard in the paint when the opportunity presents itself.

Without the numbers I probably would have guessed the same as you did. I think the unexpected high free throw rates come from (a) more fouls called this season; and (b) guys like Tyler, Josh, and Amile don't take that many shots (the denominator in the FTR calculation). Also, Josh, Marshall, and especially Amile presumably get fouled some after offensive rebounds, which would inflate their rate a bit.

[greybeard]

One last thing and I'll stop, promise. About progressive, beyond what is habituated, which, almost by definition we are unaware of, and trying for improvement based upon an expert's "how to" instructs." I get that it presents as intellectual gobbledygook. Here's something concrete that might help give a feel about some of what I'm talking about. You might want to try this., as you read.

Sit down in a reasonably upright position, nothing uncomfortable. Fold your hands and let them sit in your lap, on a table in front of you, wherever is comfortable. Notice how you are feeling, shoulders, neck, jaw, arms, as much else as you care to take in.

Now do it the other way. Don't read further, do it the other way.

Okay, and this might be illuminating for a fair number of you, "the other way" is with the other thumb on top. Place your hands as before. Notice as before. Different? More comfortable or less. How long would you stay with it before changing, shifting, going back. In this case, going back is a clear, sharp change. Multiply this many fold, and you get an idea of why progress into something very different can be almost impossible with regard to certain habituated patterns for each of us, and for why how to directions won't help bring progress in those areas. Or not. No more.

[lotusland]

It is not the intensity of work that matters it is the how. Most of what is learned, really engrained, is first taken in somatically, through, into the body/nervous system/mind as a sensory memory, one that has no words, or in which no words are needed. Then, and this is the kicker, once you have that memory you learn MORE from playing "imagine" than by actual practice, though that certainly has it's place. Imagine involves picturing, sensing, feeling the shoot from contact with the floor through the top of your head, the all of it, the more complete, the better. The imagination invokes the sensations, sequence, initiation points, pathways, sequence, timing, speed, intensity etc of movements, they are experienced. Walking to class, watching TV, etc. That is where learning is accelerated.

Hard work increases the intensity of sensation and decreases one's ability to discern what you are feeling and sensing that makes a difference; it impedes learning.

We see other's perform in shapes--that is a good looking stroke, that sucks. We experience ourselves as sentient beings from the inside out, sensations, feelings. How to instructions and working to achieve goals, without the baseline feel of how we are doing what we intend is a very, very unproductive way to learn a new physical skill. It is particularly difficult to overcome a habituated approach. I learned new shots, or worked on honing my shot if it needed it, by shooting lefty, doing the shot relying solely on the form and feel of it, from within 2-5 feet. There is no meaningful old stuff to get out of the way. When I "got" it lefty, it transferred to the right automatically.

The question, why won't poor habits transfer from the strong to the weak side is easy. The brain/nervous system is attracted to what feels good, what works with ultimate ease because all the machines involved are in sync and we know, again on a non verbal level the feel of every aspect of it all through us (optimally). On our strong side, we often settle for styles that have us getting in our own way but nevertheless, these big time athletes, can use their acuity and physical equipment to literally push through their own obstacles. As "nice" a shot that this self sabotaging action produces, fundamentally there is an element that is disturbing, not right. That does not transfer unless you force it upon the other side. But, if you appreciate something about what you are after and know that it should be easy and very effective, take less effort than you can imagine, you will have a much less encumbered way to learn something new.

Many of us, probably most all of us, are unable to comprehend ourselves from the inside out with respect to certain aspects of self use. We all have incomplete "self images" as it were, places where we are quite vague or completely in the dark as to involvement. You then need to grab onto where there is awareness and expand from there.

This really is not nearly as complicated as it sounds.

Practicing hard when you do not know HOW to do what you want will not produce the result you are after, which is to know how to do what you want. It will not happen. At best, a very poor approximation.

Learning is fun and interesting or it does not happen. When basketball players are working hard into the night shooting 5000 jump shots, anybody really believe that that is "work?" I didn't think so.

The Dude abides...

[greybeard]

The Dude abides...

"Look at me, rambling again, . . . ."