This Week in the ACC - 12/30-1/5

[pfrduke]

So we come to the end of the year and the end of the non-conference season and are faced with a paucity of strong non-conference wins. Carolina easily has the best slate of victories, counting Louisville, Michigan State, and Kentucky as victims (although it has an equally problematic loss to balance against each of those). Syracuse faced a reasonably strong field in Maui (Minnesota, Cal, Baylor), beat Indiana, and, barring an ugly initial 9 minutes, really took apart an undefeated Villanova team (it was 25-8 Nova at the 11:00 mark in the first half; Syracuse outscored them 70-37 the rest of the way). Duke beat Michigan and UCLA, but both of them look like they may have trouble hanging around the bottom ranks of the top 25. FSU took apart VCU, picked up a nice win against UMass (FSU owns the A-10), and by all rights should have beaten Michigan. But outside of that? Here's everyone's best win (note, you don't want to look at 2nd best): BC - Washington; Clemson - Temple (note, this is not a vintage Temple team); Georgia Tech - Illinois; Maryland - Providence; Miami - Arizona State; NC State - Tennessee; Notre Dame - Indiana; Pittsburgh - Stanford; Virginia - SMU; Virginia Tech - West Virginia; Wake Forest - Richmond (in overtime, at home). Not surprisingly, Syracuse, Duke, UNC, and FSU are all projected as tournament teams at this point in the season; only Pitt and Virginia of that remaining group are likely in based on play to date. The overall record is ok, the overall record against major conferences is ok (although we will be under .500 until tournament time), but it's not the performance that the ACC wanted, particularly in its first year of supposed super-conferencedom.

This week doesn't offer much chance for improvement. Virginia heads to Tennessee to try to improve on its best non-conference win (improvement only due to location of game), and BC tries to avoid 6 straight years of losing to an Ivy league team - after 5 straight home losses to Harvard, this time, at least, the indignity will happen on the road. Speaking volumes about the direction of the respective programs, Pomeroy projects Harvard to win this game 91% of the time.

And then it's conference play. 7 games on tap for the weekend. And just to manage expectations, it's likely that Maryland will end the week all alone in first place. To provide comfort, I will not be saying the same thing next week

Monday has five matchups, with the aforementioned Cavalier trip to Tennessee as (hopefully) the only serious contest, although NC State needs to be careful of UNCG, which tasted ACC blood over the weekend and wants more.

[24]Florida State hosts [195]Charleston Southern
[39]Clemson hosts [253]VMI
[92]Miami hosts [242]Loyola Maryland
[22]Virginia at [46]Tennessee
[74]NC State at [299]UNC-Greensboro

Tuesday has some pre-Peach Bowl hoops - were one so inclined, one could watch what probably are the ACC's top 3 teams in back to back to back action on ESPNU, all before catching Duke-Texas A&M as the main event.

[15]Duke vs. [115]Elon in Greensboro
[10]Pittsburgh hosts [187]Albany
[69]Maryland hosts [128]North Carolina Central
[5]Syracuse hosts [138]Eastern Michigan
[130]Virginia Tech hosts [343]Maryland-Eastern Shore
[19]North Carolina hosts [255]North Carolina Wilmington

Wednesday is BC-Harvard. I continue to marvel that Boston College is on what soon should be a 6-year losing streak to Harvard. Maybe the ACC can swing a trade?

[155]Boston College at [32]Harvard

Thursday and Friday are dark.

Saturday is conference play! Starting with the newcomers, Pitt gets its welcome to the conference with a trip to Tobacco Road to take on the Pack. TJ Warren has been outstanding (although if he was looking for areas of improvement, he could stop taking quite so many 3s) but he has had essentially no help. Notre Dame gets its home game with Duke (Duke travels to play all three new members - a free sellout is the ACC's version of a housewarming gift) but wishes this matchup could have been in December when Jerian Grant was still around. I've mentioned this before, but the Irish defense has been very poor this season, and Duke's high-powered offense doesn't seem to be a likely cure. Syracuse hosts Miami in what should be the most lobsided affair on Saturday. In more traditional conference action, Maryland hosts Georgia Tech looking to go 2-0 to start conference play; Clemson travels to BC in a game that the Tigers should win if they want to be taken seriously as a contender this season; and the marquee matchup puts Virginia on the road against Florida State - expect a defensive battle.

[74]NC State hosts [10]Pittsburgh
[5]Syracuse hosts [92]Miami
[69]Maryland hosts [93]Georgia Tech
[55]Notre Dame hosts [15]Duke
[155]Boston College hosts [39]Clemson
[24]Florida State hosts [22]Virginia

Sunday is a Tobacco Road show down, with the Tar Heels headed to Winston to take on Wake. The Deacs have been frisky in the first couple months - it's easily been the best non-conference performance of the Jeff Bzdelik era (which is a bit of damning with faint praise, but still) - and have been doing it behind strong defense, particularly on the glass. So far, when the Tar Heels have been kept off the boards, offense has been more of a struggle.

[86]Wake Forest hosts [19]North Carolina

ACC Non-Conference Record: 128-51
ACC Record vs. BCS: 29-32
America East: 2-0
American Athletic: 4-5
Atlantic Sun: 8-1
Atlantic Ten: 9-8
Big 12: 3-3
Big East: 3-4
Big South: 12-0
Big Ten: 8-9
Big West: 3-0
Colonial: 3-0
CUSA: 8-1
Horizon: 3-1
Ivy: 2-0
MAAC: 2-0
MAC: 2-1
MEAC: 10-1
Missouri Valley: 3-1
Mountain West: 1-0
Northeast: 3-1
Ohio Valley: 3-1
Pac-12: 6-3
Patriot: 6-1
SEC: 5-8
Southern: 13-1
Southland: 1-0
Summit: 0-1
SWAC: 2-0
West Coast: 2-0
Non D-I: 1-0

[TruBlu]

Really appreciate the work you put into these threads.

However, as they say, no good deed goes unpunished. This would be even more of a go-to thread if it also listed starting times and tv coverage (for those of us who are lazy).

[tbyers11]

Echo the kudos to pfrduke on this weekly thread.

Here is a link (http://www.theacc.com/#!/schedule) (from theacc.com) with times and coverage for the lazy among us. Simply choose Basketball (M) up top and there are your times and TV coverage for all the ACC games for the week.

[pfrduke]

Virginia heads to Tennessee to try to improve on its best non-conference win

Or they could go to Knoxville and get absolutely embarrassed. Currently losing 82-47.

[DU82]

Or they could go to Knoxville and get absolutely embarrassed. Currently losing 82-47.

This is their men's team losing that big? Wow.

[Newton_14]

Or they could go to Knoxville and get absolutely embarrassed. Currently losing 82-47.
I unfortunately watched some of this debacle. Embarassing, especially given that NC State wiped the floor with the Vols on the exact same court. Just befuddling. I thought UVA was much better than this.

[Troublemaker]

With league play starting in earnest this week, let's compare schedule strengths among the contenders. Every ACC team plays 18 league games consisting of: 5 Home Only opponents, 4 Home and Home opponents (accounting for 8 games total), and 5 Road Only opponents. First, let's look at Duke's schedule.

Duke's Schedule


+-------------+------------+-------------+-------------+
| KenPom Rank | Home Only | Home & Road | Road Only |
+-------------+------------+-------------+-------------+
| 5 | | Syracuse | |
+-------------+------------+-------------+-------------+
| 10 | | | Pittsburgh |
+-------------+------------+-------------+-------------+
| 19 | | UNC-CH | |
+-------------+------------+-------------+-------------+
| 27 | Florida St | | |
+-------------+------------+-------------+-------------+
| 37 | | | Clemson |
+-------------+------------+-------------+-------------+
| 43 | Virginia | | |
+-------------+------------+-------------+-------------+
| 54 | | | Notre Dame |
+-------------+------------+-------------+-------------+
| 72 | Maryland | | |
+-------------+------------+-------------+-------------+
| 79 | NCSU | | |
+-------------+------------+-------------+-------------+
| 84 | | Wake Forest | |
+-------------+------------+-------------+-------------+
| 88 | | | Miami |
+-------------+------------+-------------+-------------+
| 96 | | Ga Tech | |
+-------------+------------+-------------+-------------+
| 129 | Va Tech | | |
+-------------+------------+-------------+-------------+
| 156 | | | Boston Coll |
+-------------+------------+-------------+-------------+

I would say Duke's schedule isn't too bad. Playing Pitt on the road with no return game is somewhat balanced out by playing Florida St only once and at home. Same with playing Clemson once on the road getting balanced out by playing UVA once at home.

I'll be posting the schedules of Syracuse, Pitt, and UNC in the same format soon.

[Troublemaker]

Syracuse's Schedule


+-------------+------------+-------------+-------------+
| KenPom Rank | Home Only | Home & Road | Road Only |
+-------------+------------+-------------+-------------+
| 10 | | Pittsburgh | |
+-------------+------------+-------------+-------------+
| 16 | | Duke | |
+-------------+------------+-------------+-------------+
| 19 | UNC-CH | | |
+-------------+------------+-------------+-------------+
| 27 | | | Florida St |
+-------------+------------+-------------+-------------+
| 37 | Clemson | | |
+-------------+------------+-------------+-------------+
| 43 | | | Virginia |
+-------------+------------+-------------+-------------+
| 54 | Notre Dame | | |
+-------------+------------+-------------+-------------+
| 72 | | | Maryland |
+-------------+------------+-------------+-------------+
| 79 | NCSU | | |
+-------------+------------+-------------+-------------+
| 84 | | | Wake Forest |
+-------------+------------+-------------+-------------+
| 88 | | Miami | |
+-------------+------------+-------------+-------------+
| 96 | Ga Tech | | |
+-------------+------------+-------------+-------------+
| 129 | | | Va Tech |
+-------------+------------+-------------+-------------+
| 156 | | Boston Coll | |
+-------------+------------+-------------+-------------+

Syracuse has a slightly better schedule than Duke. Their Home Only opponents are consistently getting "balanced out" by lower-rated Road Only opponents. (Whereas Duke sort of has the reverse trend going.)

[Troublemaker]

Pittsburgh's Schedule


+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| KenPom Rank | Home Only | Home & Road | Road Only |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| 5 | | Syracuse | |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| 16 | Duke | | |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| 19 | | | UNC-CH |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| 27 | Florida St | | |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| 37 | | Clemson | |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| 43 | Virginia | | |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| 54 | | | Notre Dame |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| 72 | | Maryland | |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| 79 | | NCSU | |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| 84 | Wake Forest | | |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| 88 | | | Miami |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| 96 | | | Ga Tech |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| 129 | Va Tech | | |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| 156 | | | Boston Coll |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+

Pittsburgh has a decent amount of schedule advantage over Duke and Syracuse. They have Home Only games with Duke, FSU, and UVA, and it's only balanced out by one Road Only game against UNC. Three of Pitt's five Road Only games are versus the ACC's bottom four teams. Their other two Road Only teams are UNC and Notre Dame, who both might be overrated right now. Notre Dame due to suspension of their best player, and UNC who might keep sliding down KenPom's ratings as the season progesses.

Watch out for Pitt. They might not be as strong as Duke and Syracuse, but they have the schedule to compete for an ACC title as long as they themselves aren't horribly overrated by KenPom right now.

[Troublemaker]

UNC's Schedule


+-------------+-------------+-------------+------------+
| KenPom Rank | Home Only | Home & Road | Road Only |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+------------+
| 5 | | | Syracuse |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+------------+
| 10 | Pittsburgh | | |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+------------+
| 16 | | Duke | |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+------------+
| 27 | | | Florida St |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+------------+
| 37 | Clemson | | |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+------------+
| 43 | | | Virginia |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+------------+
| 54 | | Notre Dame | |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+------------+
| 72 | Maryland | | |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+------------+
| 79 | | NCSU | |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+------------+
| 84 | | Wake Forest | |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+------------+
| 88 | Miami | | |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+------------+
| 96 | | | Ga Tech |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+------------+
| 129 | | | Va Tech |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+------------+
| 156 | Boston Coll | | |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+------------+

I don't consider UNC a true contender for the ACC crown, but I figured Duke fans would be interested in seeing what their schedule looks like in this format.

UNC has a similar schedule to Duke's, i.e. slightly tough. Their Road Only opponents are consistently higher rated than their Home Only opponents. Beyond that, I don't see anything too notable.

[wk2109]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/10232255/robert-carter-jr-georgia-tech-yellow-jackets-tears-meniscus-indefinitely


Georgia Tech leading rebounder Robert Carter Jr. will have surgery and is out indefinitely after suffering a torn meniscus in his left knee during Sunday's win against Charlotte.

Carter, a 6-foot-8 sophomore, is tied for the ACC lead in rebounding at 9.3 per game. He averages 10.3 points.

Georgia Tech hosts Duke next Tuesday 1/7/14.

[Dev11]

ACC Record vs. BCS: 29-32

Not so long ago, this losing record would have been unfathomable, like Duke making it to the ACC Football Championship Game before Miami. Times change.

[wk2109]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/10232255/robert-carter-jr-georgia-tech-yellow-jackets-tears-meniscus-indefinitely



Georgia Tech hosts Duke next Tuesday 1/7/14.

I mean Duke hosts Georgia Tech next Tuesday.