2013 Draft - The Worst Ever?

[tommy]

Mention was made on another thread about Cleveland's Anthony Bennett being discussed already as perhaps the worst overall #1 draft choice of all time. And he may turn out to be just that. But I took a look at the whole first round, and man, it's bad. The 2013 draft was predicted to be weak, but it's even worse than many thought it would be, including me. Just look at the top of the lottery, besides Bennett. You've got Otto Porter, who in 8 games is averaging 1.4 points on 29% shooting. Alex Len, who some thought Cleveland should have taken #1 overall, has been a bust with Phoenix, only getting into 4 games all year with a combination of "sore ankle" and straight-out DNP-CD's. Nerlens Noel is out for the season. Cody Zeller isn't doing anything worthwhile, really. Victor Oladipo and Trey Burke have been pretty good I guess, Ben McLemore disappointing, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope so-so. Just terrible overall. Michael Carter-Williams has been good for the Sixers, but come on. That's the best player in the draft 30 games in? How are they even going to select a credible rookie team for the rookie-soph game at All-Star weekend?

I know it's just 30 games in, but if they could do it over again already, I think guys like Tim Hardaway, Jr. and Mason Plumlee would both be drafted significantly higher than they were in the actual draft.

[JNort]

Mention was made on another thread about Cleveland's Anthony Bennett being discussed already as perhaps the worst overall #1 draft choice of all time. And he may turn out to be just that. But I took a look at the whole first round, and man, it's bad. The 2013 draft was predicted to be weak, but it's even worse than many thought it would be, including me. Just look at the top of the lottery, besides Bennett. You've got Otto Porter, who in 8 games is averaging 1.4 points on 29% shooting. Alex Len, who some thought Cleveland should have taken #1 overall, has been a bust with Phoenix, only getting into 4 games all year with a combination of "sore ankle" and straight-out DNP-CD's. Nerlens Noel is out for the season. Cody Zeller isn't doing anything worthwhile, really. Victor Oladipo and Trey Burke have been pretty good I guess, Ben McLemore disappointing, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope so-so. Just terrible overall. Michael Carter-Williams has been good for the Sixers, but come on. That's the best player in the draft 30 games in? How are they even going to select a credible rookie team for the rookie-soph game at All-Star weekend?

I know it's just 30 games in, but if they could do it over again already, I think guys like Tim Hardaway, Jr. and Mason Plumlee would both be drafted significantly higher than they were in the actual draft.
You seem to really underrate Carter-Williams. Even in a stacked draft he would be a leader for ROTY. Hardaway, Burke, Plum2, MCW all appear to be immediate impact guys. It may take awhile to see anything from Len or Noel (just look at MP1). I still think Oladipo and Ben M are gonna be great scorers. A weak draft yes but I think it's stronger than what we were expecting.


BTW there is no rookie/sophomore game anymore. It is now IMO a much better design and is now called the Rising Stars Challenge. Two assistant coaches take turns doing a draft of only 2nd and 1st year players until both teams have a full roster. They then play a college style format for time (two 20minute halves)

[BD80]

... I took a look at the whole first round, and man, it's bad. The 2013 draft was predicted to be weak, but it's even worse than many thought it would be, including me. Just look at the top of the lottery, besides Bennett. ... Kentavious Caldwell-Pope so-so. Just terrible overall. ...

KCP is starting for the Pistons, in a sense ahead of Singler, although Singler gets as much PT and more minutes in crunch time.

[GGLC]

Waaaaaaay too early to tell.

[CDu]

Waaaaaaay too early to tell.

Agreed. Remember when Miles Plumlee was a bust in Indiana? Less than halfway through one season is WAY too early to grade a draft.

Now, I don't think the 2013 draft is going to wind up looking great, but ruling the draft the worst ever after just 30 games is WAY WAY WAY premature. In this era of extremely early entry, you just HAVE to wait a few years to let guys develop. Not everyone is an NBA star from day 1.

[FerryFor50]

Agreed that it's way too early to tell.

Even so, I'd argue that the 2000 draft was actually the worst of the past 15 years (not going to look at every draft, because that's tedious :))

Best player in the 2000 draft?

Toss up between Hedo Turkoglu, Mike Miller, Jamal Crawford and Kenyon Martin. No real stars there.

The rest? Blech. A lot of busts and journeymen... not what you want out of your first round pick.

1. Kenyon Martin, Cincinnati
New Jersey

2. Stromile Swift, LSU
Vancouver

3. Darius Miles, East St. Louis HS (Mo.)
L.A. Clippers

4. Marcus Fizer, Iowa State
Chicago

5. Mike Miller, Florida
Orlando

6. DerMarr Johnson, Cincinnati
Atlanta

7. Chris Mihm, Texas
Chicago (1)

8. Jamal Crawford, Michigan
Cleveland (1)

9. Joel Przybilla, Minnesota
Houston (2)

10. Keyon Dooling, Missouri
Orlando (3)

11. Jerome Moiso, UCLA
Boston

12. Etan Thomas, Syracuse
Dallas

13. Courtney Alexander, Fresno State
Orlando (4)

14. Mateen Cleaves, Michigan State
Detroit

15. Jason Collier, Georgia Tech
Milwaukee (2)

16. Hidayet Turkoglu, Turkey
Sacramento

17. Desmond Mason, Oklahoma State
Seattle

18. Quentin Richardson, DePaul
L.A. Clippers

19. Jamaal Magloire, Kentucky
Charlotte

20. Speedy Claxton, Hofstra
Philadelphia

21. Morris Peterson, Michigan State
Toronto

22. Donnell Harvey, Florida
New York (5)

23. DeShawn Stevenson, Washington Union HS (Calif.)
Utah

24. Dalibor Bagaric, Croatia
Chicago

25. Iakovos Tsakalidis, Greece
Phoenix

26. Mamadou N'diaye, Auburn
Denver

27. Primoz Brezec, Slovenia
Indiana

28. Erick Barkley, St. John's
Portland

29. Mark Madsen, Stanford
L.A. Lakers

[Des Esseintes]

Agreed that it's way too early to tell.

Even so, I'd argue that the 2000 draft was actually the worst of the past 15 years (not going to look at every draft, because that's tedious :))

Best player in the 2000 draft?

Toss up between Hedo Turkoglu, Mike Miller, Jamal Crawford and Kenyon Martin. No real stars there.


Good call. I've heard commentators I respect (Haralobos Voulgaris, the gambler) say MCW has a chance to be a top-10 player at some point. If he gets even close, the 2013 draft beats 2000. And that ignores guys like Oladipo that look pretty excellent in the early returns. 2000 was a unparalleled wasteland.

[brevity]

Even so, I'd argue that the 2000 draft was actually the worst of the past 15 years (not going to look at every draft, because that's tedious :))

Best player in the 2000 draft?

Toss up between Hedo Turkoglu, Mike Miller, Jamal Crawford and Kenyon Martin. No real stars there.

Michael Redd was selected in the second round of the 2000 NBA Draft (http://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2000.html), 43rd overall. He is the only person from that draft class to make an All-NBA Team, in 2004, and was in the 2004 All-Star Game. He also won gold with the 2008 Olympic Team.

The 2013 NBA Draft looks like a stinker so far, but it's almost mathematically impossible for it (or any draft) to be as bad as 2000. I think we can conclude that much right now.

[UrinalCake]

Mention was made on another thread about Cleveland's Anthony Bennett being discussed already as perhaps the worst overall #1 draft choice of all time. And he may turn out to be just that.

It'd be pretty hard to top Michael Olowokandi for that title. Kwame Brown comes close, but I'll give him a pass for the fact that Michael Jordan went out of his way to ruin his career. And of course, the title of worst ever #2 pick would have to go to Hasheem Thabeet, the dude didn't even make it through half of his first season before being demoted to the D-league.

I do wish for Kyrie's sake that Cleveland hadn't screwed up the draft so badly. Between the 2012 and 2013 drafts they had multiple first round picks and came out with very little, except I guess for Dion Waiters who is very talented but also a poor match with Kyrie.

[g-money]

The 2013 NBA Draft looks like a stinker so far, but it's almost mathematically impossible for it (or any draft) to be as bad as 2000. I think we can conclude that much right now.

I kind of think that depends on how we do the math. While there were no superstars in the 2000 draft, there were at least a number of guys that became rotation players and/or had decently long careers. With the 2013 crop, I feel there is the chance for a historical number of three-and-outs or lottery-to-journeyman type busts. Tommy highlighted a few candidates - Bennett, Len, Porter, Zeller.

I guess my point is that if we end up with enough "zeroes", it could average out to a historically bad draft even if there are 1-2 occasional (as opposed to perennial) all-stars on the high side.

Btw, how great is it to see guys like the Plumlee brothers being undervalued in the draft? That wasn't always the case for Duke players.

[kAzE]

Yeah, as bad as it looks, there's already a ton of evidence that the 2013 is at least better than 2000. Michael Carter Williams looks like a future all-star, and there are at least 5-10 other players who are going to be capable contributers in the league for the next decade.

I'm surprised nobody has mentioned the kid they are calling "Alphabet" these days. I'm calling it now, Giannis Antetokoumnpo is going to be an all-star, and potentially a dominant player in the league in 3-4 years. Take my advice and hop on the bandwagon now, because that kid just gets it. He's already one of my favorite players in the NBA. So, between him and MCW, that's 2 all-star caliber players. The next tier is probably Trey Burke, Victor Oladipo, Ben McLemore, Steven Adams, Mason Plumlee, and Kelly Olynyk. Those guys are all going to be good starters in the future (and in the case of the first 3, are already starting, and playing well). Everyone else still has a chance to prove their worth, so it's WAY too early to make any final judgements, but suffice it to say, it's nowhere near the worst class ever.

[Jim3k]

It'd be pretty hard to top Michael Olowokandi for that title. Kwame Brown comes close, ...


Uhh...Sam Bowie and LaRue Martin say hello.

[brevity]

Mention was made on another thread about Cleveland's Anthony Bennett being discussed already as perhaps the worst overall #1 draft choice of all time.


It'd be pretty hard to top Michael Olowokandi for that title. Kwame Brown comes close...


Uhh...Sam Bowie and LaRue Martin say hello.

Leave poor Sam Bowie out of this! He was selected 2nd overall, behind Hakeem Olajuwon.

[FerryFor50]

Leave poor Sam Bowie out of this! He was selected 2nd overall, behind Hakeem Olajuwon.

Bowie sandwich anyone?

[tommy]

Michael Redd was selected in the second round of the 2000 NBA Draft (http://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2000.html), 43rd overall. He is the only person from that draft class to make an All-NBA Team, in 2004, and was in the 2004 All-Star Game. He also won gold with the 2008 Olympic Team.

The 2013 NBA Draft looks like a stinker so far, but it's almost mathematically impossible for it (or any draft) to be as bad as 2000. I think we can conclude that much right now.

Kenyon Martin and Jamaal Magloire also made NBA all-star teams in their careers, but I agree, that 2000 class is going to be very tough to beat in the category of "worst ever."

[superdave]

29. Mark Madsen, Stanford L.A. Lakers

To be fair, Madsen gave us this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_1ciMXvSE8U

I do think you have to get a few years out to draw firm conclusions. Miles Plumlee is good evidence of that.

It is also interesting to think about expectations - compare Michael Beasley and Lamar Odom. Both solid players who are stretch 4s. Beasley got stuck in Minny and had some substance abuse problems. Odom got stuck on the Clips and had similar problems. But Odom got on that nice Lakers run, played on the US World Championship team and won a 6th man award. Had he stayed on the Clippers, who knows. Beasley is back in Miami and just may work out there. Maybe Wade, Lebron, Allen and Riley teach him to be an adult. Short of that, Beasley is a bust. So a lot depends on situation.

[FerryFor50]

To be fair, Madsen gave us this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_1ciMXvSE8U

I do think you have to get a few years out to draw firm conclusions. Miles Plumlee is good evidence of that.

It is also interesting to think about expectations - compare Michael Beasley and Lamar Odom. Both solid players who are stretch 4s. Beasley got stuck in Minny and had some substance abuse problems. Odom got stuck on the Clips and had similar problems. But Odom got on that nice Lakers run, played on the US World Championship team and won a 6th man award. Had he stayed on the Clippers, who knows. Beasley is back in Miami and just may work out there. Maybe Wade, Lebron, Allen and Riley teach him to be an adult. Short of that, Beasley is a bust. So a lot depends on situation.

But at least Odom and Beasley have carved out decent NBA careers. There were much bigger stretch 4 busts... in 2000, Darius Miles was the most egregious. And remember Eddie Griffin (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eddie_Griffin_%28basketball%29)? He was a real tragic story...

[tommy]

But at least Odom and Beasley have carved out decent NBA careers. There were much bigger stretch 4 busts... in 2000, Darius Miles was the most egregious. And remember Eddie Griffin (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eddie_Griffin_(basketball))? He was a real tragic story...

Darius Miles was actually an important part of a (brief) resurgence of the Clippers his rookie and second years. He really did show some skills and some real promise. The team had a young core of Michael Olowokandi, who had not given up yet, plus a young Lamar Odom, a young Corey Maggette, plus Miles and two other rookies from the same draft, and there was life in the franchise for awhile. They went from 15 wins to 31, and then when they traded for Elton Brand the next year, got to 39. That was a lot for the Clippers back then. While he never realized his potential at all, and his own immature behavior certainly didn't help, Miles also was unlucky when after just 5 or 6 years in the league (I think it was) he suffered a microfracture in his knee and never recovered to be the same type of player again.

To me, Stromile Swift, drafted #2 out of LSU, was a bigger bust, and Marcus Fizer, drafted #4, was as well.

Eddie Griffin was part of the 2001 draft, not the 2000.

And in looking at the 2000 draft again, while it's not debatable that there were a lot of guys who did little or nothing in the top tier of that draft, there actually were a fair number of players drafted a little later who had productive careers. Not all-stars, but reasonable careers. I'm thinking of Mike Miller, Chris Mihm, Jamal Crawford, Keyon Dooling (part of it with the Clippers and Darius Miles), Desmond Mason, Hedo Turkoglu, Quentin Richardson (also part of it with the Clippers and Darius Miles), Jamaal Magloire, Morris Peterson, DeShawn Stevenson, Marko Jaric, Eddie House, Eduardo Najera, and Brian Cardinal, in addition of course to second rounder Michael Redd.

[FerryFor50]

Darius Miles was actually an important part of a (brief) resurgence of the Clippers his rookie and second years. He really did show some skills and some real promise. The team had a young core of Michael Olowokandi, who had not given up yet, plus a young Lamar Odom, a young Corey Maggette, plus Miles and two other rookies from the same draft, and there was life in the franchise for awhile. They went from 15 wins to 31, and then when they traded for Elton Brand the next year, got to 39. That was a lot for the Clippers back then. While he never realized his potential at all, and his own immature behavior certainly didn't help, Miles also was unlucky when after just 5 or 6 years in the league (I think it was) he suffered a microfracture in his knee and never recovered to be the same type of player again.

To me, Stromile Swift, drafted #2 out of LSU, was a bigger bust, and Marcus Fizer, drafted #4, was as well.

Eddie Griffin was part of the 2001 draft, not the 2000.

And in looking at the 2000 draft again, while it's not debatable that there were a lot of guys who did little or nothing in the top tier of that draft, there actually were a fair number of players drafted a little later who had productive careers. Not all-stars, but reasonable careers. I'm thinking of Mike Miller, Chris Mihm, Jamal Crawford, Keyon Dooling (part of it with the Clippers and Darius Miles), Desmond Mason, Hedo Turkoglu, Quentin Richardson (also part of it with the Clippers and Darius Miles), Jamaal Magloire, Morris Peterson, DeShawn Stevenson, Marko Jaric, Eddie House, Eduardo Najera, and Brian Cardinal, in addition of course to second rounder Michael Redd.

Right about Miles. But remember, he ended up costing several teams a LOT of money. Sometimes it takes a few years for prospects to pan out. But it also can take a few years for prospects to bust...

I know Griffin was from 2001. It was a general statement about stretch 4 busts.

The problem with the 2000 draft wasn't the lack of players. I mean, SOMEONE had to play in the league, right? It was the lack of star power in the first round. Heck, there was a lack of starters in that draft... most of the guys you listed were bench fodder/role players. Every draft since then has had at least one perennial all-star.

2001 - Pau Gasol, Zach Randolph, Gerald Wallace, Tony Parker, Gilbert Arenas, Joe Forte (kidding!)
2002 - Yao Ming, Caron Butler, Amare Stoudamire (for a little longer than Darius Miles, at least), Carlos Boozer
2003 - LBJ, Carmelo, Chris Bosh, Dwayne Wade, David West
2004 - Dwight Howard, Luol Deng, Andre Iguodala, Al Jefferson, Josh Smith
2005 - Deron Williams, Chris Paul, Andrew Bynum (very Darius Miles-esque career arc), Danny Granger, David Lee, Monta Ellis (can you believe Bogut and Marvin Williams got drafted ahead of Deron Williams and Chris Paul?)
2006 - LaMarcus Aldridge, Brandon Roy (before the knee issues, was a top 10 player), Rudy Gay, Rajon Rondo
2007 - Kevin Durant, Al Horford, Mike Conley, Joakim Noah, Marc Gasol
2008 - Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook, Kevin Love, Roy Hibbert, Nick Batum

The rest get dicey in terms of "perennial all stars" because it's been within 5 years... but I'll list them based on potential to become all stars:
2009 - Blake Griffin, James Harden, Stephen Curry, Brandon Jennings, Jrue Holliday, Tyreke Evans, Ricky Rubio, DeMar Derozan, Ty Lawson, Jeff Teague, Taj Gibson
2010 - John Wall, Evan Turner, DeMarcus Cousins, Greg Monroe, Gordon Hayward, Paul George, Larry Sanders, Eric Bledsoe, Lance Stephenson
2011 - Kyrie Irving, Jonas Valanciunas, Brandon Knight, Kemba Walker, Klay Thompson. Kawahi Leonard, Nikola Vucevic, Tobias Harris, Kenneth Faried, Chandler Parsons, Isaiah Thomas
2012 - Anthony Davis, Damian Lillard, Andre Drummond

And every one of those drafts had additional solid starters in addition to bench and role players. Fewer busts in general compared to 2000. You could make a case that 2012 looks a lot like 2013 so far.

[Edouble]

Kenyon Martin and Jamaal Magloire also made NBA all-star teams in their careers, but I agree, that 2000 class is going to be very tough to beat in the category of "worst ever."

I believe that brev mentioned All-NBA teams, specifically, as opposed to All-Star teams, as the latter is more of a popularity contest than the former.

[tommy]

I believe that brev mentioned All-NBA teams, specifically, as opposed to All-Star teams, as the latter is more of a popularity contest than the former.

He mentioned both All-NBA teams and All-Star teams in discussing Michael Redd. While the starters in the All-Star game are determined by what some believe to be a "popularity contest," the reserves, if I'm not mistaken, are chosen by the coaches or maybe a combination of the coaches and the players' peers, so one would think that would be closer to a pure merit system than the selection of the starters. Regardless, the point is that however the All-Star teams are chosen, one's being selected for the teams is an indication that a player is among the very best players in the league that season.

[tommy]

Anthony Bennett got 31 minutes tonight, and went for a career-high 15 points and grabbed 8 rebounds in the Cavs' loss to the Pelicans. Far and away his best game as a pro.

[pfrduke]

Anthony Bennett got 31 minutes tonight, and went for a career-high 15 points and grabbed 8 rebounds in the Cavs' loss to the Pelicans. Far and away his best game as a pro.

The prior season's number 1 pick played in the same game and scored 30 with 7 boards and 8 blocks. A little better. Poor Cleveland, getting the number 1 pick in a sandwich draft (and, probably, making a poor selection with it to boot).

[flyingdutchdevil]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BfKL8IMCEAA4-dI.png

[luburch]

I searched Anthony Bennett on twitter and found this. I thought it was a little interesting:

@Unsilent: Everybody making fun of Anthony Bennett for finally scoring 15 points in a game. Otto Porter has 16 this month.

[Dev11]

I searched Anthony Bennett on twitter and found this. I thought it was a little interesting:

@Unsilent: Everybody making fun of Anthony Bennett for finally scoring 15 points in a game. Otto Porter has 16 this month.

Jack Kogod is an appropriately pessimistic DC sports fan and an important Twitter follow for those who participate in the self-flagellation of being a Bullets fan.

[MCFinARL]

Jack Kogod is an appropriately pessimistic DC sports fan and an important Twitter follow for those who participate in the self-flagellation of being a Bullets fan.

Hey--being a Bullets fan was way more rewarding than being a Wizards fan.

[Tom B.]

To be fair, Madsen gave us this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_1ciMXvSE8U




Madsen also gave us one of the best post-dunk celebrations in NCAA Tournament history:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qcs6r4LfdAI

[Dev11]

Hey--being a Bullets fan was way more rewarding than being a Wizards fan.

I try not to use the 'W' word. One of my favorite ironies about DC sports is that the national media want the Redskins to change their name, while the local fans really just wish the basketball team would change their name back to what it was.

[lotusland]

Madsen also gave us one of the best post-dunk celebrations in NCAA Tournament history:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qcs6r4LfdAI

Man I thought that was UNC at first which would have been way better. But then again I would have remembered that.

[JasonEvans]

SI redrafts the 2013 lottery (http://nba.si.com/2014/01/31/2013-nba-draft-redraft-giannis-antetokounmpo/) based on what we know now.

They make Mason a lottery pick but the redraft results are not as crazy different as the actual draft was. Bennett still goes in the mid-lottery even though he has done nothing at the pro level thus far. I guess the "potential" bloom does not wear off very quickly.

-Jason "been looking at the Cavs draft history... other than the no brainers that were Lebron and Kyrie, they have done a really, really bad job with high draft picks" Evans

[FerryFor50]

Nerlens Noel still at #3? Ahead of Oladipo? I guess I get the reasoning, but still kind of silly.

[Des Esseintes]

Nerlens Noel still at #3? Ahead of Oladipo? I guess I get the reasoning, but still kind of silly.

Noel was a strong candidate to go #1 the first time around. What has changed for him? As a potentially franchise-altering defensive contributor at center, he's still a tremendously important get. Oladipo is exciting, but what are his odds to ever make an All-NBA team? Are they so high that they overcome the positional overlaps with Wall and Beal?

[FerryFor50]

Noel was a strong candidate to go #1 the first time around. What has changed for him? As a potentially franchise-altering defensive contributor at center, he's still a tremendously important get. Oladipo is exciting, but what are his odds to ever make an All-NBA team? Are they so high that they overcome the positional overlaps with Wall and Beal?

Noel still has not played a minute in the NBA. Alex Len was also discussed as a potential #1 pick. I think Oladipo has the same chance at making an All-NBA team at this point as Noel, as we have no idea if Noel doesn't end up like Greg Oden.

[brevity]

SI redrafts the 2013 lottery (http://nba.si.com/2014/01/31/2013-nba-draft-redraft-giannis-antetokounmpo/) based on what we know now.

This particular redraft shows why the whole exercise is silly. Normally I think of it as a way to reward dumb-drafting teams, but now I notice it also penalizes smart-drafting teams. Money quote:


Drafting Burke and Len just doesn’t have the same appeal as adding Carter-Williams and Noel, but such is the nature of the hypothetical re-draft for a team that drafted as well as the Sixers actually did.

[Des Esseintes]

Noel still has not played a minute in the NBA. Alex Len was also discussed as a potential #1 pick. I think Oladipo has the same chance at making an All-NBA team at this point as Noel, as we have no idea if Noel doesn't end up like Greg Oden.

You're right. We don't know if Noel ends up like Oden. But Noel's injury has not shown itself to be any worse since the draft, when it was an upset he didn't go #1. If he was worth the risk then--and nothing for HIM has changed--it makes sense that he would be worth the risk still.

[Kedsy]

You're right. We don't know if Noel ends up like Oden. But Noel's injury has not shown itself to be any worse since the draft, when it was an upset he didn't go #1. If he was worth the risk then--and nothing for HIM has changed--it makes sense that he would be worth the risk still.

There were a lot of red flags with Oden, at the time. I don't see Noel as anything like that. Also, Noel's injury is different and lots of guys come back from it. If you're re-drafting today, I agree with you that he still has to be a very high pick.