WBB: (2) Duke 94, (17) Oklahoma 85 [Archive]

uh_no

12-08-2013, 03:08 PM

Let's hope OSU tests Duke's resilience. Duke needs to continue to have it's will tempered by adversity. There's only one game on its non-conference schedule that really matters. It's not unthinkable that Duke's next game will determine whether the remaining 3+ months of the season is a mere formality.

THe inability to do that on a regular basis is one of the biggest problems in the women's game, IMO, for both the teams and the fans....

the chasm between the top teams and the teams jst below them is so great that it's tough to get more than 1 or 2 games a year where your mettle will be tested

of course that sucks for fans too...because it's blowout city night in and night out.

-jk

12-08-2013, 03:43 PM

For those iced in, DBR Chat (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/misc.php?do=cchatbox) is open. Let's go Duke!

(We got about an inch of snow before the sleet and freezing rain started. Ick.)

-jk

throatybeard

12-08-2013, 04:05 PM

Let's hope OSU tests Duke's resilience.

I don't think they'll get a chance, because we're playing Oklahoma.

DU82

12-08-2013, 04:46 PM

It was close for a while, then Tricia got hot and started firing 3s. That, plus turnovers turned a 2-4 point game to a 19 point blowout at the half, 46-27.

CameronBlue

12-08-2013, 06:01 PM

What does that even mean?

Since the 2010-11 season Duke has lost to UConn by an average of 28 points; the team has never really competed with Geno's team during Gray-Liston-Peters et al era. Coach P is not going to outcoach Geno, not to take a cheap shot at her, but Geno's teams are fundamentally better prepared as has been stated here many times. For Duke to beat UConn, they have to be mentally tougher and rely upon the grit and determination of a senior class that will just not accept losing to UConn again. If Duke isn't successful this time, on its home court led by a Senior-dominated team, odds are that you can forget about anyone touching UConn this year.

killerleft

12-08-2013, 06:03 PM

Duke up 9 with ball at 1:07 Fox Sports 1.

killerleft

12-08-2013, 06:15 PM

Whew, we hold on to win by 9.

Dukehky

12-08-2013, 06:20 PM

Certainly have some things to tighten up. E didn't get much run because of foul trouble. For us to have a shot at beating UCONN, Chelsea has to be healthy. If she's hobbling up and down the court against them like she was tonight, we're in for some trouble. I really hope she's right next week. Also, hadn't heard much about Amber, but I think she is such a game changer, I hope she's ready to go.

Haley just needs to somehow create 12 Horcruxes and put a piece of her soul in everyone on the team before UConn. Talent-wise, we're right there. A little behind on coaching because as much as I dislike him, Geno is damn good. I'm afraid that the girls will want this one too much and play tight. Only one way to find out. I agree with the above sentiment, if Duke can't beat them at home or have a chance to win, without one of their better players (I think she's still out), then it looks like we're probably in for a Uconn repeat.

This was the season I predicted when these seniors came in was Duke's first legitimate chance at a title in the Coach P era. I think we're in that position if we stay healthy, and while a game in December only means so much, this one means a hell of a lot.

Kedsy

12-08-2013, 10:27 PM

Since the 2010-11 season Duke has lost to UConn by an average of 28 points; the team has never really competed with Geno's team during Gray-Liston-Peters et al era. Coach P is not going to outcoach Geno, not to take a cheap shot at her, but Geno's teams are fundamentally better prepared as has been stated here many times. For Duke to beat UConn, they have to be mentally tougher and rely upon the grit and determination of a senior class that will just not accept losing to UConn again. If Duke isn't successful this time, on its home court led by a Senior-dominated team, odds are that you can forget about anyone touching UConn this year.

So if Duke loses, we shouldn't bother to play the rest of the season?

uh_no

12-08-2013, 10:51 PM

So if Duke loses, we shouldn't bother to play the rest of the season?

no, but if duke loses big, it's unlikely that anyone will match uconn this year

could someone beat them? sure...but it as was pointed out, it's a fairly strong indicator of the way the rest of the season will go...and the numbers seem to back it up

over the past six seasons: Uconn's record against everyone but stanford Baylor and nd:

175-1

connecticut has already beaten stanford quite handily this season, and with baylor and ND losing arguably their most important pieces to graduation, it's not a huge leap to say that if duke is unable to put up a fight, then it's unlikely anyone else will this year.

should they handle duke with ease, you're going to find quite short odds on a guy with 8 titles, 4 undefeated seasons, and 2 70+ game win streaks. Further, if you look at the years when uconn didn't win the title, there were clear indicators of weakness, close games or losses to the teams who would eventually beat them in the tournament. When they rolled everyone in the regular season, though, that has carried into the tournament.

that all said, it's not outside the realm of the possibility that ND or tennessee could crop up as a matched opponent, and i think all this will be moot since I think duke will give them a game (lose or win)

so in short, to burn through the straw man: IF duke should not compete with uconn, it is unlikely anyone else will.

throatybeard

12-09-2013, 12:15 AM

no, but if duke loses big, it's unlikely that anyone will match uconn this year

could someone beat them? sure...but it as was pointed out, it's a fairly strong indicator of the way the rest of the season will go...and the numbers seem to back it up

over the past six seasons: Uconn's record against everyone but stanford Baylor and nd:

175-1

connecticut has already beaten stanford quite handily this season, and with baylor and ND losing arguably their most important pieces to graduation, it's not a huge leap to say that if duke is unable to put up a fight, then it's unlikely anyone else will this year.

should they handle duke with ease, you're going to find quite short odds on a guy with 8 titles, 4 undefeated seasons, and 2 70+ game win streaks. Further, if you look at the years when uconn didn't win the title, there were clear indicators of weakness, close games or losses to the teams who would eventually beat them in the tournament. When they rolled everyone in the regular season, though, that has carried into the tournament.

that all said, it's not outside the realm of the possibility that ND or tennessee could crop up as a matched opponent, and i think all this will be moot since I think duke will give them a game (lose or win)

so in short, to burn through the straw man: IF duke should not compete with uconn, it is unlikely anyone else will.

I see. I suppose if we lose one game in December, we should just forfeit the rest of the season, and forego the ACC regular season standings, the ACCT, making the S16 or the FF, and honestly, just fold the program.

With people's attitudes the way they are right now, I'd hate to be McCallie. How does she deal with people?

duke09hms

12-09-2013, 12:27 AM

I see. I suppose if we lose one game in December, we should just forfeit the rest of the season, and forego the ACC regular season standings, the ACCT, making the S16 or the FF, and honestly, just fold the program.

With people's attitudes the way they are right now, I'd hate to be McCallie. How does she deal with people?

well no, not really, but it probably means we will know what to expect. That's why we play the games though!

uh_no

12-09-2013, 12:55 AM

I see. I suppose if we lose one game in December,
simply losing a game is not the same as not being competitive....you are taling about the former, I, the latter

we should just forfeit the rest of the season, and forego the ACC regular season standings, the ACCT, making the S16 or the FF, and honestly, just fold the program.

forfeiting the rest of the season is not the same as tempering expectations... you are talking about the former, I, the latter. uconn could blow duke out of the water, and duke should still expect a final four run, but in the past, uconn has not succumbed to teams they have blown out in season. their last 3 outs from the tournament:

'12: ND, who they had already lost twice to that year
'11: ND, who had played them to within 3 and 9 points in 2 of their meetings that year
'08: stanford: who played them to within 12 points

does this mean duke can't get blown out next week and expect to come back and beat them in the tournament? of course not. but as with the FSU/Duke game yesterday, we knew how it was likely to end. and if duke isn't the team to take them down this year, then who is? as i pointed out, uconn doesn't often lose (once in 6 years) to teams not among the top couple in the country, and no one else has asserted themselves as dominantly as duke has this year. duke is playing this year like stanford and ND and baylor have the past several years, which is why i think it will be a close game...but if it's not, then I think beating them in march will be a very tall task.

should the team mail it in? no...
should they work to try to win? duh
should fans be realistic about the odds? yep

With people's attitudes the way they are right now, I'd hate to be McCallie. How does she deal with people?

it's the same as with the football team, when the results change, so will people's opinions. I haven't often been complimentary of coach P, but I must be this year. Whether you believe it or not, though, connecticut is the stick against which teams are measured, it's something they, much like the duke men, have earned due to continuous success. duke has done nearly everything perfectly this year, except for compete with uconn, and they can achieve that feat next week, which I have stated several times, I think they will. If they do not, however, we simply can't discard the result as largely irrelevent, as it has proved a strong indicator of postseason success against connecticut in the past.

now obviously other things can come into play, like injuries, which may have a significant effect on both sides.

is it possible that duke loses by 20+ and then makes the final four? not only possible, but I'd say that ought to be expected of this team regardless of the result against connecticut next week

is it possible that duke loses by 20+ and then beats uconn in the tournament? certainly possible, but improbable....that's all anyone is saying...are you saying this is wrong?

brevity

12-09-2013, 01:00 AM

I have extremely strong thoughts on this subject, but feel it's highly inappropriate to share them before Duke and Connecticut even play. Let's just say I hope Duke wins for the additional reason of shutting me up in advance.

CameronBlue

12-09-2013, 09:42 AM

So if Duke loses, we shouldn't bother to play the rest of the season?

Do you want to continue to debate this point in absolutes or accept it within the BBS context and vernacular which it is intended? Your question doesn't really require an answer does it?

If Duke was still a young team in search of an identity, sorting out roles and getting used to the coach's system you could easily expert the team to grow over the next few months. But with a Sr. laden team those roles and relationships have largely been sorted out by now, the Duke team you will see in its next game will not change a lot before March. Duke doesn't necessarily even need to win IMO but does need to be at least competitive from start to finish, not just for a half, to develop a measure of confidence that it can compete with UConn, which to date a P coached team has not done. But the standard is UConn and for this team that really is the only challenge that matters. A final four would be nice but this Sr. class would exit the stage feeling it left the bigger prize on the table.

MChambers

12-09-2013, 10:02 AM

Do you want to continue to debate this point in absolutes or accept it within the BBS context and vernacular which it is intended? Your question doesn't really require an answer does it?

If Duke was still a young team in search of an identity, sorting out roles and getting used to the coach's system you could easily expert the team to grow over the next few months. But with a Sr. laden team those roles and relationships have largely been sorted out by now, the Duke team you will see in its next game will not change a lot before March. Duke doesn't necessarily even need to win IMO but does need to be at least competitive from start to finish, not just for a half, to develop a measure of confidence that it can compete with UConn, which to date a P coached team has not done. But the standard is UConn and for this team that really is the only challenge that matters. A final four would be nice but this Sr. class would exit the stage feeling it left the bigger prize on the table.
Teams can change a lot in the course of a season, so that even a lopsided loss in December doesn't preclude a victory in March. This is true of both the men's and women's games. And with the women, there seems to be far more of an injury risk, sorry to say, so that means even more change over the course of a season.

But I'd love for Duke to beat UConn now and not wait for March.

uh_no

12-09-2013, 11:42 AM

Teams can change a lot in the course of a season, so that even a lopsided loss in December doesn't preclude a victory in March. This is true of both the men's and women's games. And with the women, there seems to be far more of an injury risk, sorry to say, so that means even more change over the course of a season.

But I'd love for Duke to beat UConn now and not wait for March.

Injury aside, can you provide an example of a lopsided victory in december being flipped in march? i'm sure it's happened, but I would imagine it's a rare occurence in the women's game. Given, as you say, it doesn't preclude a victory, but does anything ever really preclude a victory?

Duvall

12-09-2013, 11:45 AM

Do you want to continue to debate this point in absolutes or accept it within the BBS context and vernacular which it is intended? Your question doesn't really require an answer does it?

If Duke was still a young team in search of an identity, sorting out roles and getting used to the coach's system you could easily expert the team to grow over the next few months. But with a Sr. laden team those roles and relationships have largely been sorted out by now, the Duke team you will see in its next game will not change a lot before March. Duke doesn't necessarily even need to win IMO but does need to be at least competitive from start to finish, not just for a half, to develop a measure of confidence that it can compete with UConn, which to date a P coached team has not done. But the standard is UConn and for this team that really is the only challenge that matters. A final four would be nice but this Sr. class would exit the stage feeling it left the bigger prize on the table.

Sounds like we should cancel the season after next week, win or lose. After all, that December non-conference game is the only challenge that matters.

Kedsy

12-09-2013, 12:39 PM

But the standard is UConn and for this team that really is the only challenge that matters. A final four would be nice but this Sr. class would exit the stage feeling it left the bigger prize on the table.

I think a Final Four would be absolutely fabulous and the team and fans would and should be thrilled, especially since Coach P hasn't done that yet at Duke. I also think there are plenty of challenges that matter besides UConn.

MChambers

12-09-2013, 01:03 PM

Injury aside, can you provide an example of a lopsided victory in december being flipped in march? i'm sure it's happened, but I would imagine it's a rare occurence in the women's game. Given, as you say, it doesn't preclude a victory, but does anything ever really preclude a victory?
Even better, a lopsided win in January was reversed in the Final Four. That happened in 2006. Duke blew Maryland out, at the Comcast Center, in January. I was there, and Duke dominated.

In the Final Four, Maryland beat Duke.

Sorry I don't have an example of UConn losing in March/April, but I just don't follow the women's game as closely.

77devil

12-09-2013, 01:18 PM

I think a Final Four would be absolutely fabulous and the team and fans would and should be thrilled, especially since Coach P hasn't done that yet at Duke. I also think there are plenty of challenges that matter besides UConn.

Yes, a final four would be nice as Coach K had two after seven seasons at Duke.

Kedsy

12-09-2013, 01:32 PM

Yes, a final four would be nice as Coach K had two after seven seasons at Duke.

While I agree it would be great, it's not entirely fair to expect Coach P to live up to the standards of one of the top 2 college basketball coaches of all time.

Dukehky

12-09-2013, 01:33 PM

The sarcastic replies about how duke should "cancel the season if they lose to UConn" are not necessary. It's a defensive measure taken because Uh no makes strong points, and by engaging in hyperbole you're attempting to negate those points.

Look, I was on the practice squad when I was there, and as such I have a really strong desire to see this team do well. I've never really been a strong supporter of Coach P because Coach G was my coach; however, I really want the program to win. We have the talent to beat UConn both in December and in the tournament, but Coach P isn't big on changing what she does. She's going to switch up defenses and run the through the post, even if it's not E down there. Adjustments aren't really her thing, which is fine, if you have the talent to win regardless of circumstance, which this Duke team does. So if we do lose by 20 at home to UConn, I don't see any real indication that we could beat them later. There is the distinct possibility that they could just be raining in contested Jumpers and we miss a bunch of open shots and bunnies. That would be the exception to the beat by 20 rule. If we just don't make shots and lose by 20, then we can win later.

There is a difference between getting beat and not playing well. WHile it's harder to describe, if you've watched basketball, then you can tell which of those two it is pretty easily.

Lets just hope the girls make all of this bickering mean nothing by beating UConn by 45 points in Cameron, I'll be there and encourage anyone who's able to go. Two best teams in the country in the gym we all love... Nothing better in the women's game.

77devil

12-09-2013, 01:47 PM

While I agree it would be great, it's not entirely fair to expect Coach P to live up to the standards of one of the top 2 college basketball coaches of all time.

Why not? After all, it was you who maintained that she outperformed him from a similar starting point.

Kedsy

12-09-2013, 01:53 PM

Why not? After all, it was you who maintained that she outperformed him from a similar starting point.

True enough, but in a different context. Before, I was attempting to point out that we shouldn't be so hard on Coach P since Coach K started slow and Coach P's early teams were actually much better than Coach K's early teams. My recollection is in that conversation I even pointed out that I didn't expect her to become Coach K, just that we should give her a break.

Now, we're contemplating whether she needs to achieve certain goals because Coach K accomplished them. I admit it's a similar discussion, but I think the nuances are both different and important.

roywhite

12-09-2013, 02:08 PM

True enough, but in a different context. Before, I was attempting to point out that we shouldn't be so hard on Coach P since Coach K started slow and Coach P's early teams were actually much better than Coach K's early teams. My recollection is in that conversation I even pointed out that I didn't expect her to become Coach K, just that we should give her a break.

Now, we're contemplating whether she needs to achieve certain goals because Coach K accomplished them. I admit it's a similar discussion, but I think the nuances are both different and important.

To branch out a bit here, it's very gratifying to see just how good Duke has become in a number of sports. We all know about Coach K's program and recall how Coach G. accomplished so much for Women's hoops, but we see Duke nationally competitive (going for national titles) in a number of sports -- M lacrosse, W lacrosse, W-golf, Field Hockey, both Men's and Women's Soccer in some years, and a niche like Diving. Not to mention how the FB program has progressed. Has overall Duke athletics ever been better?

The point? Duke has a great brand, a rising tide if you will, that is raising many ships, or sports with 'ships.:)

To the women's program under Coach P, she has reached a standard of excellence that is very impressive. This year seems to offer a good opportunity to challenge UConn (truly the gold standard in that sport) and maybe win a National Championship. Be great to see.

msdukie

12-10-2013, 10:30 PM

While I agree it would be great, it's not entirely fair to expect Coach P to live up to the standards of one of the top 2 college basketball coaches of all time.

What about the standards of her predecessor?

throatybeard

12-10-2013, 11:05 PM

What about the standards of her predecessor?

I'd say, think how narrow the difference really is. We're still very competitive for the ACC RS/T every year. The difference is what happens in the Regional Final, which is that McCallie loses on the regular. But GG's teams had very ugly exits in the Final Four in 1999, 2002 and 2003. I'd say being one of the last eight teams standing is a good problem to have. Like GG, McCallie has made a National Final and lost, once, not twice.

Another difficulty in assessing Goestenkors is her relative struggle at Texas. Don't get me wrong, I darn near cried myself to sleep when she left, but she didn't replicate her Duke success at Texas, which is sort of a mystery to me. So if you're going to measure McCallie against, her, I think you've gotta add the Texas years in there.

At the end of the day, you're talking about replacement value. Who was available when Gail left who would have come to Duke, would have done better than make the Region Final most years and would have won the conference quite a bit?

What's Gail doing now anyway, since she left Texas? Wiki is unhelpful in this matter.

Kedsy

12-10-2013, 11:22 PM

What about the standards of her predecessor?

Well, I don't know that any of these comparisons are productive, but OK, I'll play.

In Coach G's first 6 seasons, she had a 119-61 record (.661), and took the team to one Elite Eight and three second round losses.

In Coach P's first 6 seasons, she had a 174-35 record (.841), and took the team to four Elite Eights, one Sweet 16, and one 2nd round loss.

In Coach G's 7th season, her team scored a 29-7 record and a trip to the championship game. My guess is Coach P will easily eclipse the win/loss record. Who knows if we'll get to the finals.

So I'd say so far Coach P has easily lived up to the standards of Coach G at the same point in her Duke tenure and in fact far exceeded them.

And, yeah, I know Coach P inherited a much stronger team than Coach G did, but the team did lose its two best players from Coach G's last year and by leaving in late March Coach G sort of screwed Coach P out of any Spring recruiting for P's first season, so it wasn't like the team P inherited was a super-powerhouse or anything.

throatybeard

12-10-2013, 11:31 PM

Holy cow. I hadn't processed this, but Goestenkors actually had a losing record in the conference at Texas. (40-42).

Also, w/r/t transitions and all, didn't she get handed the keys by Jody Conradt?

Duvall

12-10-2013, 11:44 PM

I'd say, think how narrow the difference really is. We're still very competitive for the ACC RS/T every year. The difference is what happens in the Regional Final, which is that McCallie loses on the regular. But GG's teams had very ugly exits in the Final Four in 1999, 2002 and 2003. I'd say being one of the last eight teams standing is a good problem to have. Like GG, McCallie has made a National Final and lost, once, not twice.

Another difficulty in assessing Goestenkors is her relative struggle at Texas. Don't get me wrong, I darn near cried myself to sleep when she left, but she didn't replicate her Duke success at Texas, which is sort of a mystery to me. So if you're going to measure McCallie against, her, I think you've gotta add the Texas years in there.

At the end of the day, you're talking about replacement value. Who was available when Gail left who would have come to Duke, would have done better than make the Region Final most years and would have won the conference quite a bit?

What's Gail doing now anyway, since she left Texas? Wiki is unhelpful in this matter.

Enjoying that buyout life? Looks like she's also been a consultant with the LA Sparks.

There are probably a couple of coaches that might have done better at Duke over the last six years, but it's hard to imagine Joe Alleva managing to find and/or land them.

Kedsy

12-10-2013, 11:52 PM

Yes, a final four would be nice as Coach K had two after seven seasons at Duke.

Oh, by the way, while I still maintain judging Coach P on whether she does as well as Coach K isn't entirely fair, I'm also almost certain Coach K only had one Final Four appearance after his first seven seasons at Duke. His first season was 1980-81. He made his second Final Four in 1988 (8th season).

Duvall

12-11-2013, 12:12 AM

And, yeah, I know Coach P inherited a much stronger team than Coach G did, but the team did lose its two best players from Coach G's last year and by leaving in late March Coach G sort of screwed Coach P out of any Spring recruiting for P's first season, so it wasn't like the team P inherited was a super-powerhouse or anything.

A "much stronger team" is a pretty strong understatement. Gail inherited a program that hadn't made any kind of postseason in five years, McCallie inherited a team with nine former HS All-Americans.

Kedsy

12-11-2013, 08:06 AM

A "much stronger team" is a pretty strong understatement. Gail inherited a program that hadn't made any kind of postseason in five years, McCallie inherited a team with nine former HS All-Americans.

The team she inherited certainly didn't have the kind of talent we saw in Coach G's last few seasons. And after "only" going 25-10 with a Sweet 16 performance her first season, Coach P has not lost more than 6 games in a season and has made the Elite Eight 4 times in 5 years. Other than losing her last game a few days too early, what has she done that hasn't lived up to the "standards of her predecessor"?

killerleft

12-11-2013, 03:05 PM

Duvall

12-11-2013, 07:16 PM

The team she inherited certainly didn't have the kind of talent we saw in Coach G's last few seasons. And after "only" going 25-10 with a Sweet 16 performance her first season, Coach P has not lost more than 6 games in a season and has made the Elite Eight 4 times in 5 years. Other than losing her last game a few days too early, what has she done that hasn't lived up to the "standards of her predecessor"?

There's not much benefit to be gained from the comparison, which is why I wasn't the one to bring it up in the first place. But if we have to discuss it, we should at least be accurate.

Has there been a dropoff in Duke's performance against elite opponents in recent years? Yes. Is there anything we can do about it at this point? Not really, no. Is that a reason to root less for Duke, or to take less pleasure in the wins and accomplishments of Duke's players going forward? Absolutely not.