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Eakane
12-04-2013, 11:44 AM
Outcome of the Challenge may be on the line. Conference bragging rights and all that. Knock Michigan State from the ranks of the unbeatens. Better for us to have Carolina as a worthy opp...

Who am I kidding?

Go Sparty!!

flyingdutchdevil
12-04-2013, 11:47 AM
Outcome of the Challenge may be on the line. Conference bragging rights and all that. Knock Michigan State from the ranks of the unbeatens. Better for us to have Carolina as a worthy opp...

Who am I kidding?

Go Sparty!!

Like Sparty. And I like this experienced, no nonsense Sparty team. Go Izzo!

superdave
12-04-2013, 11:47 AM
I hope Unc is down so much they have to end the game early.

Henderson
12-04-2013, 11:49 AM
Seeing Carolina lose is more fun than seeing the ACC prevail in this challenge. End of story.

P.S. Hey Terps: Welcome to the B1G tonight.

WiJoe
12-04-2013, 11:49 AM
i hope unc is down so much they have to end the game early.

right

on !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

NYBri
12-04-2013, 11:50 AM
should we root for carolina tonight?

Never! 9f!

mattman91
12-04-2013, 11:50 AM
gthc gth

I'll never pull for UNC. Ever.

Reisen
12-04-2013, 11:56 AM
This might be the one game where I root for Carolina and against MSU.

On of my favorite high school teachers was related to Izzo (maybe his brother?), but this was fairly early in his career (before he went to his first final four), so he wasn't as well known then. I've always liked the guy. Maybe my favorite coach outside the Duke family.

But the Big Televen has tried to kill the ACC, and this is for conference pride. I might even wear a Carolina blue shirt while I watch the game tonight.

Dev11
12-04-2013, 12:09 PM
But the Big Televen has tried to kill the ACC, and this is for conference pride.

Hang on, all the B1G managed to do was take Maryland away and we might end up with an extra $3M out of the whole thing. I'd say they were doing us a solid.

DevilWearsPrada
12-04-2013, 12:12 PM
I hope Unc is down so much they have to end the game early.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sViDGckXt0k

When FSU blewout Unc in Jan 2012, and Ole Roy, staff and team exited the basketball court leaving Behind 5 Walk On Players.

Did those 5 boys ever find their way back to Chapel Hill? Or still lost in Tallahassee, waiting on the Team Bus?

Thats the Carolina Way of ending a Game early! GTHC

FerryFor50
12-04-2013, 12:12 PM
The answer is always "no."

FerryFor50
12-04-2013, 12:13 PM
This might be the one game where I root for Carolina and against MSU.

On of my favorite high school teachers was related to Izzo (maybe his brother?), but this was fairly early in his career (before he went to his first final four), so he wasn't as well known then. I've always liked the guy. Maybe my favorite coach outside the Duke family.

But the Big Televen has tried to kill the ACC, and this is for conference pride. I might even wear a Carolina blue shirt while I watch the game tonight.

The fact that you own a Carolina blue shirt suggests you should turn in your fan card...

wilson
12-04-2013, 12:16 PM
The fact that you own a Carolina blue shirt suggests you should turn in your fan card...Right. A lesser used, yet important corollary to 9f is 5d (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?10527-DBR-Manifesto-(AKA-Throaty-s-Handy-Pocket-Reference)&p=672204#post672204).

CharlestonDevil
12-04-2013, 12:22 PM
My father once told me "Son, long before you were born I hated Carolina. And if UNC was playing the Russians, I'd pull for the Russians."

So no, I will be a Spartan tonight. GTHC.

jjasper0729
12-04-2013, 12:30 PM
one must NEVER pull for the baby blue... one of the reasons I never fill out a tournament bracket for an office pool. I always pick the 'holes to lose in the first round.

Merlindevildog91
12-04-2013, 12:35 PM
"If Hitler invaded Hell I would at least make a favourable reference to the devil in the House of Commons."

Winston Churchill

OldPhiKap
12-04-2013, 12:43 PM
"If Hitler invaded Hell I would at least make a favourable reference to the devil in the House of Commons."

Winston Churchill

"Hell. Hell is for children."

-- Pat Benatar


(Not sure what that has to do with anything, but 9F9F9F9F!!)

Curious to watch this one, Izzo's teams (as we all know) play hard-nosed, physical defense. How will the refs call it? And, do the Heels shoot free throws like they did against Belmont?

You have to be able to hit from outside to beat Michigan State. That is, um, not a strong suit of the current roster in Chappa Heel.

Probably a good thing this game is on the road, the Carolina fans go from quiet to sullenly quiet to irked quiet in a heartbeat. Then hit IC to tear their players apart and debate why Roy's teams don't play with passion.

Best to be in East Lansing.

FerryFor50
12-04-2013, 12:46 PM
"Hell. Hell is for children."

-- Pat Benatar


(Not sure what that has to do with anything, but 9F9F9F9F!!)

Curious to watch this one, Izzo's teams (as we all know) play hard-nosed, physical defense. How will the refs call it? And, do the Heels shoot free throws like they did against Belmont?

You have to be able to hit from outside to beat Michigan State. That is, um, not a strong suit of the current roster in Chappa Heel.

Probably a good thing this game is on the road, the Carolina fans go from quiet to sullenly quiet to irked quiet in a heartbeat. Then hit IC to tear their players apart and debate why Roy's teams don't play with passion.

Best to be in East Lansing.

As we all know, it was by conspiracy that UNC had to play #1 MSU and Duke had to play #20 Michigan...

Olympic Fan
12-04-2013, 01:08 PM
For most of my life (and I'm north of 60 years old), I pulled for UNC when they weren't playing Duke. I saw them as a partner in the battle between the schools playing real student athletes against the scumbag cheaters. Duke and UNC were partners in the fight to keep the 800 SAT rule. They were partners in the fight against ACC expansion. I was proud to have them as a rival.

Imagine my surprise to learn over the last few years that UNC was the worst of the scumbag cheaters. Mea culpa.

I will never again pull for a such a corrupt program. If UNC is playing Syracuse in the final game and a UNC victory would give Duke a regular season tile, I'd scream "Go Orange" and try to win the tournament.

Tonight, I'll pull like crazy for NC State, Boston College, Miami and Virginia.

Otherwise, go Sparty ... and I hope Ohio State buries Maryland (I don't see it as the Big Ten trying to kill the ACC, I see it as Maryland stabbing the ACC in the back -- pretending to support the league while negotiating in secret to jump to a richer league).

jacone21
12-04-2013, 01:10 PM
Even if I set out to root for UNC (like say I'd get $1000 if they won), by the 19:55 mark of the first half, I would already be rooting against them.

"Naaassty, naaaasty, heelses." -Gollum

bulldog44
12-04-2013, 01:13 PM
2 words, HELL NO!

To quote a guy I used to do stand up with, if UNC was playing Al-Qaeda. I would be in the stands chanting, "Gimme an A, gimme a L......."

78Devil
12-04-2013, 02:09 PM
I'm with the poster who said that, even when his brain wins over his heart and he starts out rooting for UNC, he just can't do it after a few minutes. I will be rooting for MSU, even though I really do believe its better for Duke if UNC wins, and if the ACC looks as strong as possible when we make our run to win it.

I also USED to root for UNC against any non-ACC foe. But for me that changed when I discovered theri message boards, and found out how much the UNC fans hate Duke. I was no longer able to root for them out of logic, when I saw the degree of nastiness over there.

hudlow
12-04-2013, 02:18 PM
ABC....forever and always.

Native
12-04-2013, 02:27 PM
I hope Sparty wins by 1,000 points.

moonpie23
12-04-2013, 02:29 PM
no…..we never "pull for unc"………unless we're pulling for them to fail miserably ……….



that said, i'm calling the upset tonight

chrishoke
12-04-2013, 02:31 PM
Has IZZO ever beaten the Heels?

-bdbd
12-04-2013, 02:31 PM
I won't let their scummy, ugly fans dictate who I root for. It helps Duke (and the ACC) for UNC to win, so I'll pull "for the ACC", always. Regardless of the ugliness coming our way from IC and Chapel Hill in general. We're better than them (their fans, in general). Now, re. MD, can I root for OSU and MD both to lose???

And even though I'd like to see ACC victories across the board, I will still smile if MSU prevails -- kinda like a "glass half full" moment.

;)

OldPhiKap
12-04-2013, 02:54 PM
Has IZZO ever beaten the Heels?

2000, maybe?

jdj4duke
12-04-2013, 03:01 PM
Never. Not even if it would reduce global warming. Never, even if they confessed to every sin, violation, and crime that has become apparent in the last two years. Not ever. Not if they offered all their cheerleaders to serve as doormats into my house. Even if they changed their colors to fuschia. I pull for UK against them. I pull for Maryland against them. I would pull for Eddie Sutton, Jerry Tarkanian, or Kelvin Sampson against them. I cannot imagine any circumstance that would cause me to pull for UNC to win at anything. My only request is that they lose by 81-50. That would be good.

johnb
12-04-2013, 03:07 PM
Hang on, all the B1G managed to do was take Maryland away and we might end up with an extra $3M out of the whole thing. I'd say they were doing us a solid.

While the back room stuff hasn't been made public, there was plenty of concern that the Big 10 was targeting other ACC teams besides Maryland in order to get a better toehold on the east coast. As I recall, that included Virginia, Carolina, and perhaps even us. If the ACC had lost Carolina and Virginia, that could have opened the floodgates for FSU and Clemson to consider the SEC (yeah, yeah, I know about the state thing) and for there to be some sort of weird, bifurcated Big 12, but we were certainly breathless with worry about it.... And while I don't know or remember the details, I have no doubt that, midwestern demographics being what they are, they would have been happy to dismember the ACC to ensure their future.

And, while I want Carolina to fail overall, I tend to side with the theory that what's good for us (eg, ACC supremacy and upcoming AP polls) heavily informs my allegiance. So, while I like Izzo, I want his undefeated team and his conference to lose. That is tempered, of course, by Carolina's gahdawful powder blue, their hypocrisy, and my preference that we have more overall wins as soon as possible...

FerryFor50
12-04-2013, 03:10 PM
While the back room stuff hasn't been made public, there was plenty of concern that the Big 10 was targeting other ACC teams besides Maryland in order to get a better toehold on the east coast. As I recall, that included Virginia, Carolina, and perhaps even us. I have no doubt that, midwestern demographics being what they are, they would have been happy to dismember the ACC to ensure their future.

And, while I want Carolina to fail overall, I tend to side with the theory that what's good for us (eg, ACC supremacy and upcoming AP polls) heavily informs my allegiance. So, while I like Izzo, I want his undefeated team and his conference to lose

Well, to be fair, I targeted Scarlett Johansson and Natalie Portman for my conference, but they ultimately said no. (And filed restraining orders)

flyingdutchdevil
12-04-2013, 03:17 PM
2 words, HELL NO!

To quote a guy I used to do stand up with, if UNC was playing Al-Qaeda. I would be in the stands chanting, "Gimme an A, gimme a L......."

Not tasteful. In the slightest.

oldnavy
12-04-2013, 03:33 PM
This is a trick question right??

Has Hell frozen over?

CharlestonDevil
12-04-2013, 03:39 PM
I hope Sparty wins by 1,000 points.

You left off a few zeros.

Also, I wonder what the under/over is on number of timeouts Roy will have left at the end of the game. Anyone checked the lines in Vegas??

bbq-devil
12-04-2013, 03:48 PM
3727

weezie
12-04-2013, 03:49 PM
Count me in as an honorary sparty tonight.

Here is a Turtle
12-04-2013, 03:50 PM
For most of my life (and I'm north of 60 years old), I pulled for UNC when they weren't playing Duke. I saw them as a partner in the battle between the schools playing real student athletes against the scumbag cheaters. Duke and UNC were partners in the fight to keep the 800 SAT rule. They were partners in the fight against ACC expansion. I was proud to have them as a rival.

Imagine my surprise to learn over the last few years that UNC was the worst of the scumbag cheaters. Mea culpa.

I will never again pull for a such a corrupt program. If UNC is playing Syracuse in the final game and a UNC victory would give Duke a regular season tile, I'd scream "Go Orange" and try to win the tournament.

Tonight, I'll pull like crazy for NC State, Boston College, Miami and Virginia.

Otherwise, go Sparty ... and I hope Ohio State buries Maryland (I don't see it as the Big Ten trying to kill the ACC, I see it as Maryland stabbing the ACC in the back -- pretending to support the league while negotiating in secret to jump to a richer league).


Can someone please explain this Maryland hate of leaving the conference to me? The ACC is has poached numerous teams from the Big East (effectively killing the conference) but ACC fans are angry because one team (which is replaced almost immediately by Louisville which a lot of fans prefer and funny enough another Big East team) is leaving.

I can understand the good riddance comments. It makes sense. Maryland wants to leave, fine. Don't let the door hit you on the way out. I'm cool with that.

What I cannot understand is why get so angry at a team that you hate or as has been said on this board numerous times, couldn't care less about, when the team leaves and replaces it with competition you seem better? Especially after just poaching three teams this year?

As for the B1G/ACC challenge, I'm rooting for the ACC except for Virginia. Can't stand those guys. I dislike rooting for UNC, but I still have nightmares about the MSU buzzer beater that ended Vasquez's season so UNC wins by default.

Native
12-04-2013, 03:51 PM
You left off a few zeros.

Also, I wonder what the under/over is on number of timeouts Roy will have left at the end of the game. Anyone checked the lines in Vegas??

I don't think there's enough zeroes in the world to estimate that.

OZZIE4DUKE
12-04-2013, 03:58 PM
Let's Go Russians! er... Spartans! http://www.crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/devil9f.gif http://www.crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/devil9f.gif http://www.crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/devil9f.gif http://www.crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/devil9f.gif

OldPhiKap
12-04-2013, 04:09 PM
Can someone please explain this Maryland hate of leaving the conference to me? The ACC is has poached numerous teams from the Big East (effectively killing the conference) but ACC fans are angry because one team (which is replaced almost immediately by Louisville which a lot of fans prefer and funny enough another Big East team) is leaving.

I can understand the good riddance comments. It makes sense. Maryland wants to leave, fine. Don't let the door hit you on the way out. I'm cool with that.

What I cannot understand is why get so angry at a team that you hate or as has been said on this board numerous times, couldn't care less about, when the team leaves and replaces it with competition you seem better? Especially after just poaching three teams this year?

As for the B1G/ACC challenge, I'm rooting for the ACC except for Virginia. Can't stand those guys. I dislike rooting for UNC, but I still have nightmares about the MSU buzzer beater that ended Vasquez's season so UNC wins by default.

Because it's fine when you decide to break up with your girlfriend. But when she dumps you before you get a chance to tell her, well -- that stings. No one likes rejection, even when you don't really like the person to start.

It's kinda that I think. Maryland (hopes it) is better dealing the ACC for someone new. That is not being taken well in the rest of the conference.

I could be wrong, but that's my read.

devildeac
12-04-2013, 04:23 PM
This is a trick question right??

Has Hell frozen over?

Here's some early evidence:


3728

Not that it would ever change my mind: No, no, a thousand times no.

devildeac
12-04-2013, 04:28 PM
Extremely improbable, but have we seen any of these yet:

3729

Dr. Rosenrosen
12-04-2013, 04:30 PM
I hope Unc is down so much they have to end the game early.
Yes! Sparty refusing to pull their starters resulting in agreement at halftime to play just a 5 minute second period...

johnb
12-04-2013, 05:16 PM
Can someone please explain this Maryland hate of leaving the conference to me? The ACC is has poached numerous teams from the Big East (effectively killing the conference) but ACC fans are angry because one team (which is replaced almost immediately by Louisville which a lot of fans prefer and funny enough another Big East team) is leaving.

I can understand the good riddance comments. It makes sense. Maryland wants to leave, fine. Don't let the door hit you on the way out. I'm cool with that.

What I cannot understand is why get so angry at a team that you hate or as has been said on this board numerous times, couldn't care less about, when the team leaves and replaces it with competition you seem better? Especially after just poaching three teams this year?
...

Maryland left us. They face a debt that undercuts their ability to roll out a lineup of intercollegiate sports (which was originally caused by poor management and poor public/philanthropic support; ie, their problem). We preferred that they stay, so, despite a $3 million divorce check, we're mad at them

We gutted the core of the Big East to strengthen our conference in the face of uncertainty and financial opportunity. We're okay with this; it's a tough world, and the newcomers are happy to be here.

One could use words like hypocrisy and rationalization, but I prefer to focus on Maryland fans being exceptionally boorish and on their administration being disloyal as well as dumb enough to think it a good idea that their secondary sports now get to travel to Ames and West Lafayette on a regular basis. I, myself, have nothing against the athletes, who are probably a lot like the athletes at lots of other places, and just trying to do their sport and get an education and have some fun in the meantime.

nmduke2001
12-04-2013, 05:35 PM
I enjoy beating a good UNC team more than beating a terrible UNC team, though both are fun.

Olympic Fan
12-04-2013, 05:39 PM
One could use words like hypocrisy and rationalization, but I prefer to focus on Maryland fans being exceptionally boorish and on their administration being disloyal as well as dumb enough to think it a good idea that their secondary sports now get to travel to Ames and West Lafayette on a regular basis. I, myself, have nothing against the athletes, who are probably a lot like the athletes at lots of other places, and just trying to do their sport and get an education and have some fun in the meantime.

There is more to it than just being mad that Maryland left.

Maryland administrators were totally dishonest during the process. They assured ACC officials that they were not contemplating a move at the same time they were negotiating for the move to the Big Ten. The school's President freely admits that they violated the state's open meetings law to pull off the coup. Then when they did announce the move, they lied, claiming the Board of Regents vote was unanimous, when it wasn't.

The funny thing is that most of the secrecy and dishonesty was to prevent the Maryland fan base from finding out what a small cabal of administrators were up to -- they feared that the majority of Maryland fans would not support the move.

I would feel sorry for the Terp fans, but if I offered sympathy, they'd probably throw a water bottle at me. So screw them.

Lauderdevil
12-04-2013, 05:56 PM
Why even talk about who we're "pulling for"? Didn't anyone watch the UAB game? This game is over before it starts.

Acymetric
12-04-2013, 06:14 PM
While the back room stuff hasn't been made public, there was plenty of concern that the Big 10 was targeting other ACC teams besides Maryland in order to get a better toehold on the east coast. As I recall, that included Virginia, Carolina, and perhaps even us. If the ACC had lost Carolina and Virginia, that could have opened the floodgates for FSU and Clemson to consider the SEC (yeah, yeah, I know about the state thing) and for there to be some sort of weird, bifurcated Big 12, but we were certainly breathless with worry about it.... And while I don't know or remember the details, I have no doubt that, midwestern demographics being what they are, they would have been happy to dismember the ACC to ensure their future.

And, while I want Carolina to fail overall, I tend to side with the theory that what's good for us (eg, ACC supremacy and upcoming AP polls) heavily informs my allegiance. So, while I like Izzo, I want his undefeated team and his conference to lose. That is tempered, of course, by Carolina's gahdawful powder blue, their hypocrisy, and my preference that we have more overall wins as soon as possible...

Here's the thing. Me pulling for unc doesn't have anything to do with the outcome of the game. I will pull against them in every game they play, and they'll win a bunch of those. But it sure puts a smile on my face when they lose! If they win the marginal benefits to Duke serves as somewhat of a consolation prize but its not enough to get me to cheer them on.

pfrduke
12-04-2013, 07:31 PM
2000, maybe?

Correct. Also 1999. All told, Izzo is 2-8 against UNC and has lost 6 in a row.

moonpie23
12-04-2013, 07:59 PM
this game will not be as one-sided as y'all think…..

jipops
12-04-2013, 08:15 PM
UNC defense very impressive so far.

Duvall
12-04-2013, 08:15 PM
Michigan State going Michigan State early.

mattman91
12-04-2013, 08:18 PM
Paige is pretty good, but this Meeks kid is about as athletic as a flat tire.

jipops
12-04-2013, 08:21 PM
Well this might be a blowout after all.

Reilly
12-04-2013, 08:23 PM
... The school's President freely admits that they violated the state's open meetings law ... the secrecy and dishonesty was to prevent the Maryland fan base from finding out what a small cabal of administrators were up to -- they feared that the majority of Maryland fans would not support the move ...

Well the open meetings law really should have a "public officials scared of being tied to a burning couch on Route 1" exception.

dukelifer
12-04-2013, 08:25 PM
Well the open meetings law really should have a "public officials scared of being tied to a burning couch on Route 1" exception.

They are killing Mich State. Mich State cannot shoot

jipops
12-04-2013, 08:28 PM
They are killing Mich State. Mich State cannot shoot

Give the heels credit, their defense is excellent. And they're killing the boards.

dukelifer
12-04-2013, 08:33 PM
Give the heels credit, their defense is excellent. And they're killing the boards.

I agree - UNC plays to the level of their opponent. They have talent - just seem to lose focus.

devildeac
12-04-2013, 08:40 PM
I agree - UNC plays to the level of their opponent. They have talent - just seem to lose focus.

Maybe MSU should change to the Belmont jerseys at the half...

-jk
12-04-2013, 08:43 PM
Appling's wrist?

No one deserves that.

-jk

FerryFor50
12-04-2013, 08:45 PM
Appling's wrist?

No one deserves that.

-jk

Looks like a hip or leg injury... maybe a contusion, given the fall...

Newton_14
12-04-2013, 08:45 PM
Outcome of the Challenge may be on the line. Conference bragging rights and all that. Knock Michigan State from the ranks of the unbeatens. Better for us to have Carolina as a worthy opp...

Who am I kidding?

Go Sparty!!

Two words: HELL NO

duke4ever19
12-04-2013, 08:47 PM
Sparty back to life!!

Newton_14
12-04-2013, 08:48 PM
Looks like a hip or leg injury... maybe a contusion, given the fall...

Why is it that Sparty soils themselves each and every time they play UNC? Seriously?

If they cannot blowout this version of UNC, at home, with a squad that is supposedly the best in the land, they should be plain embarassed.

DBFAN
12-04-2013, 08:48 PM
Maybe just Maybe, and please hear me out on this one. UK just isn't than good, def not a #1 ranking good, and MSU beating them wasn't as amazing as everyone thought. Thus MSU being ranked #1 is just a little bit of a stretch

jipops
12-04-2013, 08:49 PM
Love Izzo's intensity right now. You know he wants this one pretty bad.

FerryFor50
12-04-2013, 08:50 PM
Why is it that Sparty soils themselves each and every time they play UNC? Seriously?

If they cannot blowout this version of UNC, at home, with a squad that is supposedly the best in the land, they should be plain embarassed.

Maybe they have an irrational fear of light blue?

I know we have an irrational hatred of it. (well, maybe not THAT irrational)

jipops
12-04-2013, 08:50 PM
Maybe just Maybe, and please hear me out on this one. UK just isn't than good, def not a #1 ranking good, and MSU beating them wasn't as amazing as everyone thought. Thus MSU being ranked #1 is just a little bit of a stretch

No. I still think Mich St is the best team. Heels just had everything clicking at the start.

FerryFor50
12-04-2013, 08:51 PM
Love Izzo's intensity right now. You know he wants this one pretty bad.

He's probably sick of losing to these bums. :p

dukelifer
12-04-2013, 08:51 PM
Maybe just Maybe, and please hear me out on this one. UK just isn't than good, def not a #1 ranking good, and MSU beating them wasn't as amazing as everyone thought. Thus MSU being ranked #1 is just a little bit of a stretch

Or maybe UNC is the best team. Beating 1 and 3 would be a huge accomplishment.

FerryFor50
12-04-2013, 08:52 PM
Or maybe UNC is the best team. Beating 1 and 3 would be a huge accomplishment.

As is losing to UAB and Belmont.

Dukehky
12-04-2013, 08:53 PM
Maybe just Maybe, and please hear me out on this one. UK just isn't than good, def not a #1 ranking good, and MSU beating them wasn't as amazing as everyone thought. Thus MSU being ranked #1 is just a little bit of a stretch

I'm with you, I don't think they're the best team. I think they're a little limited offensively; however, on defense and on the glass, they're extremely good. I actually think Arizona and Kansas are the two best teams right now. I want Carolina to win this game even though I'm not really pulling for them, if that makes sense. The ACC needs to get back to owning this challenge. If this game wasn't in the ACC-Big 10 Challenge I'd be pulling for MSU hard.

Gotta hand it to the Izzone, that joint gets rowdy.

FerryFor50
12-04-2013, 08:54 PM
By the way, did anyone see the garbage offensive foul they called on MSU? I thought the player had to be set BEFORE the movement upwards... Paige wasn't set until Harris was in his shot/dunk motion.

Duvall
12-04-2013, 08:55 PM
By the way, did anyone see the garbage offensive foul they called on MSU? I thought the player had to be set BEFORE the movement upwards... Paige wasn't set until Harris was in his shot/dunk motion.

The new rules have pretty much made the game completely random. Any call is now possible at any time.

jipops
12-04-2013, 08:58 PM
By the way, did anyone see the garbage offensive foul they called on MSU? I thought the player had to be set BEFORE the movement upwards... Paige wasn't set until Harris was in his shot/dunk motion.

Looked like a good call to me.

FerryFor50
12-04-2013, 08:59 PM
Looked like a good call to me.

Under the old rules, yes.

Under these new rules, it's when the offensive player begins to gather and go up. Once Harris started to do that, Paige THEN slid over. But as Duvall said, it's so seemingly random now.

Duvall
12-04-2013, 09:00 PM
Looked like a good call to me.

It was a good call from the days when the rules were good. Now, not so much.

DBFAN
12-04-2013, 09:00 PM
It always seems like MSU is limited offensively, I don't know maybe it's just me

I really think right now that Arizona is probably playing the most complete game of everyone. Although I am still convinced that Duke had the highest ceiling out of everyone in the top 10

jipops
12-04-2013, 09:03 PM
It was a good call from the days when the rules were good. Now, not so much.

Yea, looking at it again the offensive player had already taken off when Paige was getting set. Guess it was an incorrect call per the new rules. Still, it's one call. Not the reason why this game is close.

devildeac
12-04-2013, 09:04 PM
The new rules have pretty much made the game completely random. Any call is now possible at any time.

With valentine, hess and luckie (and now kersey) with stripes and whistles, many calls have been random/possible for many years:mad:...

FerryFor50
12-04-2013, 09:05 PM
Yea, looking at it again the offensive player had already taken off when Paige was getting set. Guess it was an incorrect call per the new rules. Still, it's one call. Not the reason why this game is close.

I wasn't suggesting that. I was just saying it was a garbage call that took away a good, aggressive play by Harris.

And a call that has been going against Duke this season. ;) (you know, because only Duke players flop/try to take charges)

FerryFor50
12-04-2013, 09:08 PM
With valentine, hess and luckie (and now kersey) with stripes and whistles, many calls have been random/possible for many years:mad:...

This is the standard issue equipment that refs are using to call fouls this season:

3730

jipops
12-04-2013, 09:10 PM
This is the standard issue equipment that refs are using to call fouls this season:

3730

B_in_ R_f

Newton_14
12-04-2013, 09:13 PM
Yea, looking at it again the offensive player had already taken off when Paige was getting set. Guess it was an incorrect call per the new rules. Still, it's one call. Not the reason why this game is close.

Don't think Duvall was implying the refs are hurting Sparty there. I read it as an appropriate indictment of the refs abandoning the new rules and we have not yet reached Christmas.

Slowly but surely the refs are slipping back to how things have been called last year and prior. Unless your name is Amile Jefferson and the offensive player brushes your shirt when dribbling near you. New rules apply to him still.

On the play in question, my own personal view of the block/charge call near the rim is this: If the offensive player makes it close enough to the rim that he either makes or misses the dunk on the play, it is a block 100% of the time.

Another play earlier in this game: McAdoo drives, Sparty tries to take charge, McAdoo makes the bucket. I actually expected under the new rules it would be automatic block. Yet the ref called a charge. So I agree with Duvall. At this point, we nor the players or coaches, have any idea what to expect from the ref's on these block/charge plays, or on any contact between a cutter or dribbler with a defender. Hands on or hands off, light or heavy contact, we may see a foul called, or we may see "let'em play". It's maddening. The kids have to be confused as hell at this point.

jipops
12-04-2013, 09:19 PM
Spartans seem to be struggling against the zone

FerryFor50
12-04-2013, 09:22 PM
I hate to say it, but Kennedy Meeks might turn out to be pretty good.

jipops
12-04-2013, 09:24 PM
I hate to say it, but Kennedy Meeks might turn out to be pretty good.

Yep. He's got great hands and nice touch around the basket. Of course Roy and crew will get credit for all this.

dukelifer
12-04-2013, 09:25 PM
I hate to say it, but Kennedy Meeks might turn out to be pretty good.

Not a pro but an effective college player.

FerryFor50
12-04-2013, 09:26 PM
Not a pro but an effective college player.

So... Sean May? :p

Newton_14
12-04-2013, 09:26 PM
I hate to say it, but Kennedy Meeks might turn out to be pretty good.

(Self pat on the back here) I called that one earlier this summer. He is slow, over weight, and can't jump, but the kid has serious basketball skills. Great, soft hands, nice shooting touch, good footwork, great passer, high basketball IQ. In my humble opinion his basketball skills are superior to McAdoo. And why Jay Bilas keeps insisting McAdoo is a "great player" and "great offensive player", is just mind-boggling to me. I just don't get it.

jipops
12-04-2013, 09:27 PM
Spartans were tied with possession and blew it. Now down 5. I think the heels may take this

devildeac
12-04-2013, 09:28 PM
This is the standard issue equipment that refs are using to call fouls this season:

3730

One of these would probably work as well:

3731

-jk
12-04-2013, 09:29 PM
How does Meeks get moved that far on a bump?

-jk

dukelifer
12-04-2013, 09:29 PM
So... Sean May? :p
Yep. He is Sean May like.

dukelifer
12-04-2013, 09:31 PM
Spartans were tied with possession and blew it. Now down 5. I think the heels may take this

They look to be better.

FerryFor50
12-04-2013, 09:34 PM
(Self pat on the back here) I called that one earlier this summer. He is slow, over weight, and can't jump, but the kid has serious basketball skills. Great, soft hands, nice shooting touch, good footwork, great passer, high basketball IQ. In my humble opinion his basketball skills are superior to McAdoo. And why Jay Bilas keeps insisting McAdoo is a "great player" and "great offensive player", is just mind-boggling to me. I just don't get it.

If Kennedy Meeks went to Duke, what is the over/under on posts complaining that he doesn't play more than Josh Hairston?

dukelifer
12-04-2013, 09:41 PM
(Self pat on the back here) I called that one earlier this summer. He is slow, over weight, and can't jump, but the kid has serious basketball skills. Great, soft hands, nice shooting touch, good footwork, great passer, high basketball IQ. In my humble opinion his basketball skills are superior to McAdoo. And why Jay Bilas keeps insisting McAdoo is a "great player" and "great offensive player", is just mind-boggling to me. I just don't get it.

Brice Johnson can score -he is long and has a soft shot. This team has a lot of parts

Newton_14
12-04-2013, 09:42 PM
If Kennedy Meeks went to Duke, what is the over/under on posts complaining that he doesn't play more than Josh Hairston?

Ha. Good one. Tried to comment but have to "spread the love"...

Answer: 100's

jipops
12-04-2013, 09:45 PM
Heels in complete control. This one feels over

lotusland
12-04-2013, 09:46 PM
Hate to say it but I don't think Amile can keep Johnson off the block and Parker can't guard Meeks and Johnson. I really hope we pack it in and make them hit jumpers.

FerryFor50
12-04-2013, 09:46 PM
I think Michigan State this year plays right into UNC's hands. MSU is a running team this season.... they aren't the bruisers they used to be. UNC plays best when they run. If you can force them into a half court set, UNC is pretty bad. But in transition, they can play with anyone...

This is why UNC is leading, I think.

duke4ever19
12-04-2013, 09:46 PM
Those Spartans are sure in love with the three-point line.

jipops
12-04-2013, 09:49 PM
I think Michigan State this year plays right into UNC's hands. MSU is a running team this season.... they aren't the bruisers they used to be. UNC plays best when they run. If you can force them into a half court set, UNC is pretty bad. But in transition, they can play with anyone...

This is why UNC is leading, I think.

Well the only other time I saw Mich St was against UK and they didnt face the zone in that one. So there may be something to that.

dukelifer
12-04-2013, 09:49 PM
Looks like game over. Mich State is pressing, cannot shoot but taking threes and not getting back on D. Will UNC fans look to give Roy his job back if he beats number 1 on their home court!

Gthoma2a
12-04-2013, 09:50 PM
They are taking terrible shots. That, and Izzo not paying any attention to his players needing a time out make me think they don't deserve that number one ranking. They have been up and down in every game this year. UNC is lucky to get two teams that run too fast and don't seem to think they need to try against UNC.

Newton_14
12-04-2013, 09:51 PM
Well we have seen this movie 7 times in a row now.

Story lines and plot
- Sparty plays really fast and takes nothing but jumpshots early in the shotclock of a basketball game
- UNC plays fast but pulls out if the break isn't there, then pounds it inside on Sparty for easy buckets
- Sparty changes from quick two point jumpshots to quick 3 point jumpshots
- Sparty shoots like 25% on jumpshots throughout the game
- UNC gets lots of easy rebounds off Sparty jumpshot misses
- Sparty can't score very much
- Sparty can't defend paint very well
- Sparty loses game. (total deficit determined by how good or bad this sequel's version of Heels are)

jipops
12-04-2013, 09:53 PM
Heels have this. Only question, will it be a blowout win?

dukelifer
12-04-2013, 09:53 PM
They are taking terrible shots. That, and Izzo not paying any attention to his players needing a time out make me think they don't deserve that number one ranking. They have been up and down in every game this year. UNC is lucky to get two teams that run too fast and don't seem to think they need to try against UNC.
Bad performance but UNC is playing well- this one is over

dukelifer
12-04-2013, 09:55 PM
Heels have this. Only question, will it be a blowout win?

Looks like a 20 point possibility. Bet they beat KY as well and then lose to some mediocre team.

Newton_14
12-04-2013, 09:57 PM
Bad performance but UNC is playing well- this one is over

Terrible strategy by Izzo and terrible play by the Spartans. They are making a mediocri team look good. Arizona or Kansas would be killing either team.

jdj4duke
12-04-2013, 09:57 PM
No wonder the UNC fan base is crazy. The pollsters certainly appear to be.

dukelifer
12-04-2013, 10:00 PM
Terrible strategy by Izzo and terrible play by the Spartans. They are making a mediocri team look good. Arizona or Kansas would be killing either team.

I am not convinced they are mediocre. I also do not think Mich State is that good. They did not impress in their win against KY

jipops
12-04-2013, 10:04 PM
Heels are an enigma. Obviously they have talent.

CDu
12-04-2013, 10:04 PM
And we're on the verge now of UNC having two MUCH better wins than anything we have on our resume. Yes, they've lost to Belmont and UAB. But they're about to be 2-0 against the top-10 of KenPom, where we are 0-2.

OldPhiKap
12-04-2013, 10:06 PM
And we're on the verge now of UNC having two MUCH better wins than anything we have on our resume. Yes, they've lost to Belmont and UAB. But they're about to be 2-0 against the top-10 of KenPom, where we are 0-2.

Too better wins, too worse losses.

Lesson: both of our teams are talented but young.

Really, pretty much it.

jipops
12-04-2013, 10:10 PM
Too better wins, too worse losses.

Lesson: both of our teams are talented but young.

Really, pretty much it.

Vermont was pretty much a loss so I'd say their resume is better. They look like the better team right now.

ForkFondler
12-04-2013, 10:10 PM
Well we have seen this movie 7 times in a row now.

Story lines and plot
- Sparty plays really fast and takes nothing but jumpshots early in the shotclock of a basketball game
- UNC plays fast but pulls out if the break isn't there, then pounds it inside on Sparty for easy buckets
- Sparty changes from quick two point jumpshots to quick 3 point jumpshots
- Sparty shoots like 25% on jumpshots throughout the game
- UNC gets lots of easy rebounds off Sparty jumpshot misses
- Sparty can't score very much
- Sparty can't defend paint very well
- Sparty loses game. (total deficit determined by how good or bad this sequel's version of Heels are)

So, as the take away message, we weren't really rooting for Carolina. Bad Sparty, bad.

FerryFor50
12-04-2013, 10:10 PM
Looks like MSU isn't out of it. Hack a Tokoto!

dukelifer
12-04-2013, 10:11 PM
And we're on the verge now of UNC having two MUCH better wins than anything we have on our resume. Yes, they've lost to Belmont and UAB. But they're about to be 2-0 against the top-10 of KenPom, where we are 0-2.

No question they can play with anyone. Lots of parts to work with- none great but most solid

Ichabod Drain
12-04-2013, 10:16 PM
Vermont was pretty much a loss so I'd say their resume is better. They look like the better team right now.

Except for the minor issue that it wasn't...

jipops
12-04-2013, 10:16 PM
Pretty obvious why Roy has dragged his feet with PJ. A potential national title at stake.

FerryFor50
12-04-2013, 10:20 PM
If Michigan State wants to run this year, they might want to have better conditioning.

Also, they missed a lot of shots that they hit against Kentucky. I blame this on the fear of certain shades of blue...

sporthenry
12-04-2013, 10:20 PM
I'm not sure UNC is a top 10 team but they are going to give Duke fits with their size. Not sure they are going to be able to rebound with them.

Duvall
12-04-2013, 10:22 PM
Pretty obvious why Roy has dragged his feet with PJ. A potential national title at stake.

That's definitely not an overreaction to a win against a team that should have lost to Columbia.

dukelifer
12-04-2013, 10:22 PM
I'm not sure UNC is a top 10 team but they are going to give Duke fits with their size. Not sure they are going to be able to rebound with them.

Yep. They are a tough matchup and their young guys will get better. They are a potential final four team that could lose in the second round.

matt1
12-04-2013, 10:24 PM
Yep. They are a tough matchup and their young guys will get better. They are a potential final four team that could lose in the second round.

The NEW second round or what really is the second round?

#1Duke
12-04-2013, 10:26 PM
Looks like a 20 point possibility. Bet they beat KY as well and then lose to some mediocre team.

I guess UNC is one of those teams that play to their competition level.

jipops
12-04-2013, 10:27 PM
That's definitely not an overreaction to a win against a team that should have lost to Columbia.

No. It's not. I should have put a smiley face on it or perhaps this. </sarcasm>

This Heels squad has some nice parts to it, and lacks in other areas, a very interesting matchup.

roywhite
12-04-2013, 10:32 PM
So it turns out big Kennedy Meeks is an impact player as a freshman, while more heralded Isaiah Hicks is not. Always a few surprises along the way.

dukelifer
12-04-2013, 10:32 PM
I guess UNC is one of those teams that play to their competition level.

Right now. They have a young team that is finding itself. Their size is tough for most teams. Roy is managing the youngsters well. Winning this game in the road is mighty impressive- and shows that the top teams are also not finished products. Come tourney time- Mich State will be better. But the heels have the best early resume. Do not take them lightly.

moonpie23
12-04-2013, 10:38 PM
that said, i'm calling the upset tonight

man, i hate being right…...

#1Duke
12-04-2013, 10:39 PM
So it turns out big Kennedy Meeks is an impact player as a freshman, while more heralded Isaiah Hicks is not. Always a few surprises along the way.


Meeks is not competing with anybody.... that is to say, UNC did not/ does not have a dominant big man. James did not step up and is performing below expectations. The position is there for Meeks to take advantage of and he is doing it.

Johnson has the potential to emerge as a VERY strong player on both ends of the court.

Hicks is in the shadow of a much higher performing player in Paige. The entire team is very young..... it's going to be interesting to see them mature.

FerryFor50
12-04-2013, 10:41 PM
Hicks is in the shadow of a much higher performing player in Paige. The entire team is very young..... it's going to be interesting to see them mature.

Hicks and Paige play entirely different positions. Hicks is a SF/PF. Paige is a PG. Maybe you were thinking of Britt?

brevity
12-04-2013, 10:42 PM
Duke has the 2 best losses, and Carolina has the 2 best wins (neither on their home floor). Not a fan of this.

Kennedy Meeks has definite pro potential. We ARE talking about competitive eating, right?

#1Duke
12-04-2013, 10:45 PM
Hicks and Paige play entirely different positions. Hicks is a SF/PF. Paige is a PG. Maybe you were thinking of Britt?

Duh! Yes, thanks. I don't follow the Heels very closely. I may have to now though. I was expecting a very different outcome in this game.

FerryFor50
12-04-2013, 10:46 PM
Duh! Yes, thanks. I don't follow the Heels very closely. I may have to now though. I was expecting a very different outcome in this game.

Know your enemy...

Kedsy
12-04-2013, 10:58 PM
Yep. They are a tough matchup and their young guys will get better. They are a potential final four team that could lose in the second round.

UNC is in no way a potential Final Four team. I get that they beat Louisville and Michigan State (and I don't entirely understand that), but crazy upsets happen all the time in college hoops. Doesn't mean the directional school that pulls off the major upset is a potential Final Four team. And without PJ, that's what UNC-CH is. They have exactly one guy who can shoot (Paige), and in his only full college season, that guy shot less than 36% from the field. Other than Paige and Johnson and possibly Meeks, so far the guys in their rotation have been just plain awful, especially their supposed star (McAdoo) and their supposed PG (Britt). They're one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the nation and their young, big guys are decent but nowhere near good enough to carry a team.

I will say this, though. When UNC is on the bubble after a 7-11 conference season, these two big wins might help them get an NCAAT bid.

But putting the team that tied the challenge aside, I have a question about Michigan State. I understand that players improve from one season to the next, but Michigan State finished 9th in the country last year and then lost in the Sweet 16, then they lost their starting center and replaced him with a freshman who plays 6 minutes a game. Other than their win over an incredibly young UK team, why do people think Michigan State is so much better this season than they were last season?

duke09hms
12-04-2013, 11:04 PM
UNC is in no way a potential Final Four team.

I hope we don't come to regret this in the future.

Dukehky
12-04-2013, 11:08 PM
UNC is in no way a potential Final Four team. I get that they beat Louisville and Michigan State (and I don't entirely understand that), but crazy upsets happen all the time in college hoops. Doesn't mean the directional school that pulls off the major upset is a potential Final Four team. And without PJ, that's what UNC-CH is. They have exactly one guy who can shoot (Paige), and in his only full college season, that guy shot less than 36% from the field. Other than Paige and Johnson and possibly Meeks, so far the guys in their rotation have been just plain awful, especially their supposed star (McAdoo) and their supposed PG (Britt). They're one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the nation and their young, big guys are decent but nowhere near good enough to carry a team.

I will say this, though. When UNC is on the bubble after a 7-11 conference season, these two big wins might help them get an NCAAT bid.

But putting the team that tied the challenge aside, I have a question about Michigan State. I understand that players improve from one season to the next, but Michigan State finished 9th in the country last year and then lost in the Sweet 16, then they lost their starting center and replaced him with a freshman who plays 6 minutes a game. Other than their win over an incredibly young UK team, why do people think Michigan State is so much better this season than they were last season?

Completely with you. People thought Gary Harris was going to make a huge jump and be one of the top 10 players in the country. Brandon Dawson was also supposed to be a lot better, but he is like a poor man's MKG. Can't shoot, but can D up, rebound and is strong as a bull. The players that could have made them the number 1 team in the country have not grown like many thought they would or showed against UK. Costello? Valentine? Come on... I feel like right now their ceiling is by far the lowest from the Champions League games. I think Ohio State wins the Big 10.

Any one read the grantland power rankings by Mark Titus? That dude is clearly not a Duke fan, I don't think I will be reading his articles anymore.

Kedsy
12-04-2013, 11:11 PM
I hope we don't come to regret this in the future.

Well, it's true the 1999-2000 UNC team made a Final Four, which nobody could have foreseen. And George Mason did it in 2006 and VCU and Butler did it in 2011 (and Butler also in 2010), so I suppose anything is possible. But even with PJ there was almost no chance UNC would make the Final Four. Without him, there have to be 50 teams with a better chance to make it than UNC has, and possibly closer to 100 teams.

I don't usually make such definitive statements about this sort of thing, but this one seems like an easy call to me.

freshmanjs
12-04-2013, 11:14 PM
Well, it's true the 1999-2000 UNC team made a Final Four, which nobody could have foreseen. And George Mason did it in 2006 and VCU and Butler did it in 2011 (and Butler also in 2010), so I suppose anything is possible. But even with PJ there was almost no chance UNC would make the Final Four. Without him, there have to be 50 teams with a better chance to make it than UNC has, and possibly closer to 100 teams.

I don't usually make such definitive statements about this sort of thing, but this one seems like an easy call to me.

to get to the final four, they likely wouldn't have to do anything more difficult than beating louisville and michigan state.

Ichabod Drain
12-04-2013, 11:16 PM
This is going to be one roller coaster of a year...

Ichabod Drain
12-04-2013, 11:17 PM
to get to the final four, they likely wouldn't have to do anything more difficult than beating louisville and michigan state.

what about more difficult than beating UAB and Belmont?

OZ
12-04-2013, 11:19 PM
As we all know, it was by conspiracy that UNC had to play #1 MSU and Duke had to play #20 Michigan...

I just hate it when conspiracy theorists are wrong... ruined my night.

freshmanjs
12-04-2013, 11:22 PM
what about more difficult than beating UAB and Belmont?

many teams that have a shot at the final four will have bad losses. that hasn't disqualified teams in the past and it won't this year. you just need to string 4 good games together to make it. i'm not saying unc is likely to make it. but, saying they have no chance seems tough given that they've already shown they can beat very strong teams.

Kedsy
12-04-2013, 11:22 PM
to get to the final four, they likely wouldn't have to do anything more difficult than beating louisville and michigan state.

Possibly, although I doubt either of those teams will be #1 seeds by Tournament time, so possibly not.

The 2009-10 UNC team beat #9 Michigan State (a team that made the Final Four that year) and #15 Ohio State (a team that ended up as a #2 seed that year). Didn't mean that UNC team was going to make the Final Four (or even make the tournament at all). Honestly, assuming PJ is gone, I'll be surprised if this season's UNC finishes above .500 in the ACC. If they make the NCAAT at all, they likely won't be higher than a #7 seed, in which case they'd have to beat two teams that are approximately the level of Louisville and Michigan State, and then a third, better team to make the Final Four. I'll be shocked if it happens.

kAzE
12-05-2013, 02:58 AM
Possibly, although I doubt either of those teams will be #1 seeds by Tournament time, so possibly not.

The 2009-10 UNC team beat #9 Michigan State (a team that made the Final Four that year) and #15 Ohio State (a team that ended up as a #2 seed that year). Didn't mean that UNC team was going to make the Final Four (or even make the tournament at all). Honestly, assuming PJ is gone, I'll be surprised if this season's UNC finishes above .500 in the ACC. If they make the NCAAT at all, they likely won't be higher than a #7 seed, in which case they'd have to beat two teams that are approximately the level of Louisville and Michigan State, and then a third, better team to make the Final Four. I'll be shocked if it happens.

Whoa, I think it's way too early to say they are going sub-.500 in the ACC. As much as we dislike them, you kind of have to give them a little credit. Just in terms of quality of wins and losses, I don't think you can definitively say that UNC isn't a legitimate team. Yeah, they had 2 bad losses to UAB and Belmont, but they are really young, and both were close losses early in the year. Roy Williams' teams tend to drop a couple of head scratchers early in the season.

Also, both of those teams are better than Vermont, who, for all intents and purposes, basically beat us on our home floor. They have 2 wins over top 5 teams, and they DOMINATED Michigan State. They are a capable offensive team, and can put up 80 points on any given night, and have shown the ability to defend well. I don't think this early in the season you could make an argument either way, but they seem pretty good to me. Inconsistent, but March is all about "how good is your good?" Their "good" is enough to kick the crap out of the #1 team (regardless of whether or not they are the legit #1) on their home floor.

Right now, you could make an argument that they are better than us. We've got way more talent, but some of those talented guys aren't playing well right now, and if we played UNC on a neutral court tomorrow, I think most Duke fans wouldn't feel extremely confident. The ACC is going to be a gauntlet this year. Syracuse looks like the best team so far, and their defense looks like it could really cause some problems for us. That first game in the Carrier Dome is going to be rough.

kAzE
12-05-2013, 03:09 AM
In any case, they are up against UK at home in less than 2 weeks. UK, unlike Louisville and MSU, can match up with their size, and I suspect we will have a good opportunity to find out whether or not UNC is for real.

NSDukeFan
12-05-2013, 05:08 AM
Possibly, although I doubt either of those teams will be #1 seeds by Tournament time, so possibly not.

The 2009-10 UNC team beat #9 Michigan State (a team that made the Final Four that year) and #15 Ohio State (a team that ended up as a #2 seed that year). Didn't mean that UNC team was going to make the Final Four (or even make the tournament at all). Honestly, assuming PJ is gone, I'll be surprised if this season's UNC finishes above .500 in the ACC. If they make the NCAAT at all, they likely won't be higher than a #7 seed, in which case they'd have to beat two teams that are approximately the level of Louisville and Michigan State, and then a third, better team to make the Final Four. I'll be shocked if it happens.

I agree that you can't take too much from a on or two game sample size, but I have a hard time believing UNC will be under .500 in the ACC. At this point, the new and improved ACC hasn't looked like a conference that will beat UNC half the time, though I realize everyone will be better in the conference season.

dukelifer
12-05-2013, 05:32 AM
UNC is in no way a potential Final Four team. I get that they beat Louisville and Michigan State (and I don't entirely understand that), but crazy upsets happen all the time in college hoops. Doesn't mean the directional school that pulls off the major upset is a potential Final Four team. And without PJ, that's what UNC-CH is. They have exactly one guy who can shoot (Paige), and in his only full college season, that guy shot less than 36% from the field. Other than Paige and Johnson and possibly Meeks, so far the guys in their rotation have been just plain awful, especially their supposed star (McAdoo) and their supposed PG (Britt). They're one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the nation and their young, big guys are decent but nowhere near good enough to carry a team.

I will say this, though. When UNC is on the bubble after a 7-11 conference season, these two big wins might help them get an NCAAT bid.

But putting the team that tied the challenge aside, I have a question about Michigan State. I understand that players improve from one season to the next, but Michigan State finished 9th in the country last year and then lost in the Sweet 16, then they lost their starting center and replaced him with a freshman who plays 6 minutes a game. Other than their win over an incredibly young UK team, why do people think Michigan State is so much better this season than they were last season?
This did not feel like a crazy upset. This was a wire to wire domination on the opponents home court. UNC may struggle against a zone and maybe a team of athletes but they have skilled players- although no top talent. Having watched the best teams play so far- I would think Kansas and Arizona are better than the two teams yesterday- but UNC can hang. We will see how it plays out but Roy has clay to work with. Those young guys did not wilt in the bright lights. I think the message is do not take them lightly- the no star Tar Heels are going to play hard.

tbyers11
12-05-2013, 06:07 AM
I think the message is do not take them lightly- the no star Tar Heels are going to play hard.

Did they play hard against Holy Cross, Belmont and UAB?

I agree that UNC has the talent to be a dangerous team even without PJ and McDonald. But it is the extreme variability in their performance that makes me wonder if they can truly be a top team. They come to play when the lights are bright but how are they going to play in a Feb road trip to Notre Dame or FSU? Roy's teams have always seemed to mail it in several games throughout the year but usually have the talent to overcome this. Without PJ I'm not sure they can do that as easily this year.
Maybe Roy will shorten the rotation and motivate them consistently but it hasn't been his strong point in the past. That being said I bet they finish over .500 in conference.

oldnavy
12-05-2013, 06:25 AM
When UNC plays hard, they are pretty good.

This team so far is the polar opposite of last years team. Last year UNC won the games it was supposed to win and lost the ones it was supposed to lose. This year, well...

I have a healthy respect for UNC right now. They will give us fits, because they seem to come to play on the big stage, and when they get after it, they are not a bad team, far from it.

Seriously, both Louisville and MSU looked like they were playing in mud against the heels. Both of these two teams just got plain out worked by UNC, and that is why UNC won.

UNC has flaws (outside shooting and FT shooting), but if they play focused like last night, then they have a very HIGH ceiling IMO.

The grind of the ACC regular season will tell the tell....

MChambers
12-05-2013, 06:33 AM
But putting the team that tied the challenge aside, I have a question about Michigan State. I understand that players improve from one season to the next, but Michigan State finished 9th in the country last year and then lost in the Sweet 16, then they lost their starting center and replaced him with a freshman who plays 6 minutes a game. Other than their win over an incredibly young UK team, why do people think Michigan State is so much better this season than they were last season?
Couldn't you have written much the same thing about Duke in 2010? Lost our best player to the NBA (who was far more talented than Nix).

Players improve year to year. Plus, Harris, MSU's best talent, played hurt all last year and had shoulder surgery after the season a la Chris Carrawell.

dukelifer
12-05-2013, 06:45 AM
Did they play hard against Holy Cross, Belmont and UAB?

I agree that UNC has the talent to be a dangerous team even without PJ and McDonald. But it is the extreme variability in their performance that makes me wonder if they can truly be a top team. They come to play when the lights are bright but how are they going to play in a Feb road trip to Notre Dame or FSU? Roy's teams have always seemed to mail it in several games throughout the year but usually have the talent to overcome this. Without PJ I'm not sure they can do that as easily this year.
Maybe Roy will shorten the rotation and motivate them consistently but it hasn't been his strong point in the past. That being said I bet they finish over .500 in conference.
Did not watch those games but young teams play to the level of their opponents. On the big stage- they will play hard. I agree they may be inconsistent and poor free throw shooting will bite them- still they can run out lots of different lineups. Youth may doom them at times but they smashed two good teams -one in a hostile environment- and that should be enough to pay attention- because they will get better.

Gthoma2a
12-05-2013, 06:58 AM
to get to the final four, they likely wouldn't have to do anything more difficult than beating louisville and michigan state.

They have to get past teams that aren't self destructing, and to do that, they would need consistency. They don't have it. UAB and Belmont weren't the flukes. They nearly lost to a bunch of cupcakes, too.

jv001
12-05-2013, 06:58 AM
When UNC plays hard, they are pretty good.

This team so far is the polar opposite of last years team. Last year UNC won the games it was supposed to win and lost the ones it was supposed to lose. This year, well...

I have a healthy respect for UNC right now. They will give us fits, because they seem to come to play on the big stage, and when they get after it, they are not a bad team, far from it.

Seriously, both Louisville and MSU looked like they were playing in mud against the heels. Both of these two teams just got plain out worked by UNC, and that is why UNC won.

UNC has flaws (outside shooting and FT shooting), but if they play focused like last night, then they have a very HIGH ceiling IMO.

The grind of the ACC regular season will tell the tell....

I watched unc for the first time last night and I kept thinking how did this team lose to Belmont and UAB? The announcers kept saying UAB outrebounded the tarheels. Last night I came away with the feeling that their front court is solid. Meeks and Johnson were a load for Mich. State. Ole roy dominates Izzo it seems. I can't tell if MSU is worse than I thought or unc is way better than I thought(or both). I believe Duke will be tested by their front court. GoDuke!

Gthoma2a
12-05-2013, 07:00 AM
Couldn't you have written much the same thing about Duke in 2010? Lost our best player to the NBA (who was far more talented than Nix).

Players improve year to year. Plus, Harris, MSU's best talent, played hurt all last year and had shoulder surgery after the season a la Chris Carrawell.

They haven't run anyone out of the gym. It is too early to know who is the best. They were anointed off of the UK win. That is fact. They have struggled with teams that were mediocre, before last night. They are a good, but not great team. Good, but not great, teams are always going to be beatable.

Gthoma2a
12-05-2013, 07:07 AM
Here is some bad music for those who seem to have a high variation of reactions to UNC based on every single game. They are not world beaters because they won two games. They are not less than high school teams because they lost to nobodies. They are just an inconsistent team that had two teams that decided not to compete with them. For God sakes, I think I heard a, "UNC is a better team than us" type of comment in this thread.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LvzodEzseW8

wncdevilfan
12-05-2013, 07:17 AM
Just couldn't bring myself to do it. Not gonna happen. I despise everything about them.

Troublemaker
12-05-2013, 07:19 AM
When I was a young gambler, I used to believe in creatures such as the "plays to the level of the competition" one.

I would think I had identified creatures of that type early in the season and I would then bet them accordingly (i.e. to do well vs good teams, and poorly vs bad teams), and I would proceed to lose lots of money.

Careful thinking UNC is such a creature, even if the players and coaches self-identify as such. (I don't know if they have.)

Far more likely, they are either:
(a) a good team that will start beating mediocre teams consistently (albeit not necessarily every single time), or
(b) a medicore team that will start losing to good teams consistently (albeit not necessarily every single time)

MChambers
12-05-2013, 07:48 AM
They haven't run anyone out of the gym. It is too early to know who is the best. They were anointed off of the UK win. That is fact. They have struggled with teams that were mediocre, before last night. They are a good, but not great team. Good, but not great, teams are always going to be beatable.
And great teams are unbeatable? I guess that's a reference to 1991 UNLV?

I was just explaining why people had a high opinion of MSU going into the season. And I don't think MSU was "anointed off of the UK win." They were already top five.

freshmanjs
12-05-2013, 07:59 AM
They have to get past teams that aren't self destructing, and to do that, they would need consistency. They don't have it. UAB and Belmont weren't the flukes. They nearly lost to a bunch of cupcakes, too.

I disagree with this. Wildly inconsistent teams do make the final four sometimes. Again, I'm not saying they are likely to make it, but they have a chance. look at louisville 2011-12. they had a 2-5 stretch in the middle of the season. they also had a 2-4 stretch at the end of the season. they lost to South Florida and Providence. they had an OT game against DePaul. right after the 2-4 stretch, they won 8 in a row to win the big east tournament and get to the final4.

also, i'm not sure why we are ruling out UNC based on their 2 losses, but we aren't ruling out Duke based on the 1 point win over Vermont at home and the close one vs. ECU.

my view is neither team should be ruled out.

flyingdutchdevil
12-05-2013, 08:05 AM
I disagree with this. Wildly inconsistent teams do make the final four sometimes. Again, I'm not saying they are likely to make it, but they have a chance. look at louisville 2011-12. they had a 2-5 stretch in the middle of the season. they also had a 2-4 stretch at the end of the season. they lost to South Florida and Providence. they had an OT game against DePaul. right after the 2-4 stretch, they won 8 in a row to win the big east tournament and get to the final4.

also, i'm not sure why we are ruling out UNC based on their 2 losses, but we aren't ruling out Duke based on the 1 point win over Vermont at home and the close one vs. ECU.

my view is neither team should be ruled out.

Stop being rational. Don't you realize this is a Duke forum? Duke always is going to win, and UNC will always lose. Duh...

FerryFor50
12-05-2013, 08:21 AM
Stop being rational. Don't you realize this is a Duke forum? Duke always is going to win, and UNC will always lose. Duh...

^^^ Truth.

hillsborodevil
12-05-2013, 08:30 AM
1 - Talent gap has been shrinking for a very long time between David And Goliath

2 - Its a very young season

3 - Next Play - Enjoy Duke FB on Prime Time Saturday night.

Gthoma2a
12-05-2013, 08:38 AM
Stop being rational. Don't you realize this is a Duke forum? Duke always is going to win, and UNC will always lose. Duh...

No, but let's remember their 2010 team had wins, but they had a lot of bad losses. We'll see which is more common this year for this team. I can't say for certain, but losing to UAB, Belmont and nearly losing to Holy Cross gives me pause about calling them world-beaters.

freshmanjs
12-05-2013, 08:43 AM
Well, it's true the 1999-2000 UNC team made a Final Four, which nobody could have foreseen. And George Mason did it in 2006 and VCU and Butler did it in 2011 (and Butler also in 2010), so I suppose anything is possible. But even with PJ there was almost no chance UNC would make the Final Four. Without him, there have to be 50 teams with a better chance to make it than UNC has, and possibly closer to 100 teams.

I don't usually make such definitive statements about this sort of thing, but this one seems like an easy call to me.

serious question --- why do you think the KenPom methodology is so vastly over-ranking UNC right now (#8) ?

Dev11
12-05-2013, 08:48 AM
No, but let's remember their 2010 team had wins, but they had a lot of bad losses. We'll see which is more common this year for this team. I can't say for certain, but losing to UAB, Belmont and nearly losing to Holy Cross gives me pause about calling them world-beaters.

The 2010 team lost 5 games, all on the road. The worst of those was against NC State, who didn't make the tournament. The rest of the losses were to teams who made the tournament field: Georgia Tech, Georgetown, Wisconsin, and Maryland. I would say losing to that State team was the only 'bad' loss. The Georgetown game was weird since the team had to travel in a big snow storm and it was out of conference in the middle of ACC play, but nothing like losing to UAB last week.

Gthoma2a
12-05-2013, 08:55 AM
The 2010 team lost 5 games, all on the road. The worst of those was against NC State, who didn't make the tournament. The rest of the losses were to teams who made the tournament field: Georgia Tech, Georgetown, Wisconsin, and Maryland. I would say losing to that State team was the only 'bad' loss. The Georgetown game was weird since the team had to travel in a big snow storm and it was out of conference in the middle of ACC play, but nothing like losing to UAB last week.

THEIR 2010 team. I am saying that we should have more pause before we start talking about them and Final Fours. They've done this before. I was accused of minimalizing their accomplishment in a way that showed me to have Duke blue-tinted glasses. I happen to like the view through these glasses.

mkirsh
12-05-2013, 09:38 AM
First time I had seen UNC play last night, and they are the polar opposite of Duke from a philosophical perspective, particularly concerning the 3 pt line. They play a sag off, protect the paint defense and do not defend the three at all. Mich State kept jacking up 3s last night and missing, but for the most part they were wide open shots that if they hit at a normal clip the game is much closer. On offense the Heels do the same thing (albeit likely out of necessity with PJ and LM out) - they put 2 low post back to the basket guys out there (Wheat must be ecstatic!) and only have one shooter. Per Kenpom, so far they allow opponents to take 43% of their shots from 3 (vs Duke allowing other teams only 24% of shots from 3) and they take only 17% of their shots from 3, vs Duke at 35%. If a team gets hot against them they will be in trouble (ie Belmont shooting 40% from 3) but they have dodged that bullet for the most part so far this year (LVille 11-31, MSU 7-24).

Eakane
12-05-2013, 09:57 AM
First time I had seen UNC play last night, and they are the polar opposite of Duke from a philosophical perspective, particularly concerning the 3 pt line. They play a sag off, protect the paint defense and do not defend the three at all. Mich State kept jacking up 3s last night and missing, but for the most part they were wide open shots that if they hit at a normal clip the game is much closer. On offense the Heels do the same thing (albeit likely out of necessity with PJ and LM out) - they put 2 low post back to the basket guys out there (Wheat must be ecstatic!) and only have one shooter. Per Kenpom, so far they allow opponents to take 43% of their shots from 3 (vs Duke allowing other teams only 24% of shots from 3) and they take only 17% of their shots from 3, vs Duke at 35%. If a team gets hot against them they will be in trouble (ie Belmont shooting 40% from 3) but they have dodged that bullet for the most part so far this year (LVille 11-31, MSU 7-24).

Among the myriad of reasons why I like rooting for Duke and against Carolina, is that if I were a Carolina fan (shudder), I'd be going crazy seeing the lack of effort against lower tier teams. Carolina is consistently inconsistent. This happens year in and year out. Lose to Belmont? Beat Lousiville. Lose to College of Charleston? Beat Duke. Win the ACC regular season? Get knocked out by George Mason. Lose to UAB? Beat Michigan State.

I'm in a distinct minority here in that I think Roy is a great coach for them (although he does say some curious things, doesn't he?), but one of his major failings is not getting his team to be ready to play everybody, not just the top-10 teams.

This is the major distinction between K and Ole' Roy. Preparation.

Kedsy
12-05-2013, 10:13 AM
Couldn't you have written much the same thing about Duke in 2010? Lost our best player to the NBA (who was far more talented than Nix).

Players improve year to year. Plus, Harris, MSU's best talent, played hurt all last year and had shoulder surgery after the season a la Chris Carrawell.

Well, I did say "I understand that players improve from one season to the next" in my original post, so I do understand that. And I suppose you're right about the parallel to our 2010 team. But our 2010 team started at #9 and was in the lower half of the top 10 for most of the season, really until late February.

So, I'm not saying Michigan State can't make some noise in the Tournament, or can't earn a high ranking over the course of the season, I'm asking why right from the start of this season they were ranked top three and after one decent win ranked #1.

Especially since, after watching some of the UK game and most of the UNC game, Michigan State looks pretty much the same as last year's team. Appling and Payne look a little better, Harris is still dealing with nagging injuries, and they miss Nix in the middle.


serious question --- why do you think the KenPom methodology is so vastly over-ranking UNC right now (#8) ?

Because it's December 5.

According to Pomeroy, UNC's schedule (Oakland, Holy Cross, Belmont, Richmond, Louisville, UAB, Michigan State) is ranked #14 while Duke's schedule (Davidson, Kansas, FAU, UNCA, ECU, Vermont, Alabama, Arizona, Michigan) is ranked #119. Their performance against a supposedly much more difficult schedule is why they're #8.

If you want to dig deeper into why their schedule is better, UNC has only played one really bad team and we've played five (numeric ranks are from today's Pomeroy).

UNC's Schedule
---------------
Louisville #1
Michigan State #12
Richmond #61
Belmont #63
UAB #95
Holy Cross #109
Oakland #184

Duke's Schedule
---------------
Arizona #6
Kansas #10
Michigan #27
Alabama #47
Davidson #142
Vermont #156
ECU #172
FAU #255
UNCA #266

UNC will start to drop a little when they play their December schedule (which includes teams currently ranked #5, #68, #142, #222, #313, and #326), because they play several bad teams. Their ACC games will bolster their schedule strength, but if/when they get knocked around, their rating will go down.

Duke's remaining non-conference schedule isn't that good, either (#23, #151, #190, #258). To rise in the rankings we'll have to play well against the tough ACC schedule.

freshmanjs
12-05-2013, 10:16 AM
Well, I did say "I understand that players improve from one season to the next" in my original post, so I do understand that. And I suppose you're right about the parallel to our 2010 team. But our 2010 team started at #9 and was in the lower half of the top 10 for most of the season, really until late February.

So, I'm not saying Michigan State can't make some noise in the Tournament, or can't earn a high ranking over the course of the season, I'm asking why right from the start of this season they were ranked top three and after one decent win ranked #1.

Especially since, after watching some of the UK game and most of the UNC game, Michigan State looks pretty much the same as last year's team. Appling and Payne look a little better, Harris is still dealing with nagging injuries, and they miss Nix in the middle.



Because it's December 5.

According to Pomeroy, UNC's schedule (Oakland, Holy Cross, Belmont, Richmond, Louisville, UAB, Michigan State) is ranked #14 while Duke's schedule (Davidson, Kansas, FAU, UNCA, ECU, Vermont, Alabama, Arizona, Michigan) is ranked #119. Their performance against a supposedly much more difficult schedule is why they're #8.

If you want to dig deeper into why their schedule is better, UNC has only played one really bad team and we've played five (numeric ranks are from today's Pomeroy).

UNC's Schedule
---------------
Louisville #1
Michigan State #12
Richmond #61
Belmont #63
UAB #95
Holy Cross #109
Oakland #184

Duke's Schedule
---------------
Arizona #6
Kansas #10
Michigan #27
Alabama #47
Davidson #142
Vermont #156
ECU #172
FAU #255
UNCA #266

UNC will start to drop a little when they play their December schedule (which includes teams currently ranked #5, #68, #142, #222, #313, and #326), because they play several bad teams. Their ACC games will bolster their schedule strength, but if/when they get knocked around, their rating will go down.

Duke's remaining non-conference schedule isn't that good, either (#23, #151, #190, #258). To rise in the rankings we'll have to play well against the tough ACC schedule.

makes sense. it is interesting that the very bad losses people are talking about for UNC are against teams that are ranked much higher than the 2 teams that were close to beating us in Cameron (and one of them was a road game).

FerryFor50
12-05-2013, 10:24 AM
makes sense. it is interesting that the very bad losses people are talking about for UNC are against teams that are ranked much higher than the 2 teams that were close to beating us in Cameron (and one of them was a road game).

Remember that while UNC and Duke's KenPom rankings are skewed, Belmont and UAB's may also be skewed.

Are they really the 63rd and 95th ranked teams?

Is L'ville really the #1 KenPom team?

This will take some time to normalize...

freshmanjs
12-05-2013, 10:26 AM
Remember that while UNC and Duke's KenPom rankings are skewed, Belmont and UAB's may also be skewed.

Are they really the 63rd and 95th ranked teams?

Is L'ville really the #1 KenPom team?

This will take some time to normalize...

yes, understood and agreed. interesting to watch. i'm not drawing any conclusions about UNC yet. i'm not convinced that they are as bad as Kedsy thinks (below .500 in ACC and not in top 100). but, i'm certainly not convinced they are top 10 either.

FerryFor50
12-05-2013, 10:30 AM
yes, understood and agreed. interesting to watch. i'm not drawing any conclusions about UNC yet. i'm not convinced that they are as bad as Kedsy thinks (below .500 in ACC and not in top 100). but, i'm certainly not convinced they are top 10 either.

I am certainly hoping they are as bad as Kedsy thinks, but the fact that they didn't just beat L'ville and MSU but throttled both tells me that they are better than that.

Hopefully they play Jeckyll and Hyde all year long.

duke96
12-05-2013, 11:11 AM
Hopefully they play Jeckyll and Hyde all year long.

And, in particular, Hyde in March ;)

C

Billy Dat
12-05-2013, 11:24 AM
What a strange start to the year....Duke has two losses and I am unfazed, and UNC has two top 5 wins and, although I winced when I heard the score, I am feeling strangely happy for the kids on the team (call it temporary insanity). Beating Louisville and MSU at the Breslin Center without two of their intended primary players? That's nuts. I saw some college hoops pundit tweet that UNC may have the two best wins of any program this season for a long time.

I blame my unusual state of mind on the state of Duke Football....human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria!

sagegrouse
12-05-2013, 11:30 AM
What a strange start to the year....Duke has two losses and I am unfazed, and UNC has two top 5 wins and, although I winced when I heard the score, I am feeling strangely happy for the kids on the team (call it temporary insanity). Beating Louisville and MSU at the Breslin Center without two of their intended primary players? That's nuts. I saw some college hoops pundit tweet that UNC may have the two best wins of any program this season for a long time.

I blame my unusual state of mind on the state of Duke Football....human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria!

I watched the entire UNC-Mich State game. My major observation is that the UNC players were having a blast -- very energetic, trying to move at the speend of light. The Mich. State team acted like it didn't want to be there -- and that's for a home game with the stands full of students.

My minor observation is that JM MacAdoo has the worst free-throw form since -- I don't know -- maybe Chris Burgess. His arc is 6 to 8 feet -- and this for a guy who is closer to 7 feet than six feet. He should watch Mason Plumlee's form after he started hitting FTs last season. Egad! What am I saying?

NSDukeFan
12-05-2013, 11:44 AM
The new rules have pretty much made the game completely random. Any call is now possible at any time.

So now the NCAA officials referee in a similar manner to the way the NCAA enforcement department makes rulings?

Billy Dat
12-05-2013, 11:47 AM
I watched the entire UNC-Mich State game. My major observation is that the UNC players were having a blast -- very energetic, trying to move at the speend of light. The Mich. State team acted like it didn't want to be there -- and that's for a home game with the stands full of students.

My minor observation is that JM MacAdoo has the worst free-throw form since -- I don't know -- maybe Chris Burgess. His arc is 6 to 8 feet -- and this for a guy who is closer to 7 feet than six feet. He should watch Mason Plumlee's form after he started hitting FTs last season. Egad! What am I saying?

It's funny, your description of the MSU players reminds me that despite Izzo's vaunted run of success, his team's have rarely if ever been ranked #1. Heavy lies the crown, Sparty!

For the Heels, maybe Roy's pushing the "We've got nothing to lose" buttons in an attempt to keep the kids loose. They may be mercurial but top 5 scalps are top 5 scalps. Good for them, and I hope they lose the rest of their games.

Would you trade a UNC Final Four birth this year for a Duke win over FSU on Saturday? Hmmm? Hmmm?

MChambers
12-05-2013, 12:17 PM
Would you trade a UNC Final Four birth this year for a Duke win over FSU on Saturday? Hmmm? Hmmm?
Only if we also go to the Final Four and win it all.

Troublemaker
12-05-2013, 12:23 PM
Would you trade a UNC Final Four birth this year for a Duke win over FSU on Saturday? Hmmm? Hmmm?

Oooh, that is a devilish proposal.

If UNC gets to lock up one of the Final Four berths, that means Duke has 25% less odds of making it to the Final Four from where our current odds stand since there are only three Final Four berths remaining.

So the trade seems to be:

(A) Reduce Duke's odds of making the national basketball semifinals by 25% AND give UNC 100% odds of making it to the national basketball semifinal and concomitant 25% odds of winning the national championship (roughly).

traded for

(B) 100% odds of Duke winning the conference title in football.

I think I'd rather just let it play out. National/regional championships are more important than conference championships. And, to me, basketball is my preferred sport.

Billy Dat
12-05-2013, 12:36 PM
Oooh, that is a devilish proposal.....I think I'd rather just let it play out. National/regional championships are more important than conference championships. And, to me, basketball is my preferred sport.

Devilish indeed. I might argue that a conference championship, in this case, might be more important to the future of Duke Football than a National/Regional Championship would be for basketball. Assuming the NCAA bracketologists tend to never put Duke and UNC in the same regional, their chances of making the Final Four shouldn't impact ours. But, let's assume it does, and what I am really asking is would you (A) Give UNC a Final Four birth and (B) trade Duke hoops making the Final Four for (C) Duke to beat FSU in the ACC title game on Saturday?

I will wimp out with the following answer. I already get in enough trouble with my wife for watching every conceivable Duke basketball-related event. That tension has ratcheted up in the last month as the football games have been on national television. Duke's lack of a football program has generally kept me away from college football as a fan for the past 20 years. If we beat FSU, and reap even greater recruiting success, and therefore build a program that is always in the top 25 mix with potential to someday make a playoff run if they expand to 16 teams....I may be headed for divorce court, and no one wants that. The Knicks run of success has been bad enough on that score, luckily they stink again.

Once again, simply more evidence that the Duke Football "thing" is making me think strange thoughts, including success for UNC basketball.

royalblue
12-05-2013, 02:29 PM
Best day ever March 30 1991 Duke beats UNLV in the varsity game and earlier Dean gets ejected from a National Semi Final while Roy beats Smith in the Final Four so if I could have another day like that and also let the Duke football team win this Saturday that sounds like a Blue Devil Party:)

gurufrisbee
12-05-2013, 09:21 PM
NEVER

Two favorite teams:

Duke

and

Whoever is playing (and hopefully beating) Carolina.

dukelifer
12-07-2013, 06:17 AM
UK just lost to Baylor. I would not be surprised if they lose to UNC in Chapel Hill in a few days - so that could be three top 10 wins for Roy's boys. Something is not right with that picture.

DukieInKansas
12-07-2013, 06:37 AM
The title of this thread makes me laugh every time I see it.
LGD!

9f9f9f

NYBri
12-07-2013, 07:43 AM
Not so certain the Holes lose to UK.

Interesting year so far. Might a mid major creep to the top spot again?

freshmanjs
12-07-2013, 08:46 AM
Well, I did say "I understand that players improve from one season to the next" in my original post, so I do understand that. And I suppose you're right about the parallel to our 2010 team. But our 2010 team started at #9 and was in the lower half of the top 10 for most of the season, really until late February.

So, I'm not saying Michigan State can't make some noise in the Tournament, or can't earn a high ranking over the course of the season, I'm asking why right from the start of this season they were ranked top three and after one decent win ranked #1.

Especially since, after watching some of the UK game and most of the UNC game, Michigan State looks pretty much the same as last year's team. Appling and Payne look a little better, Harris is still dealing with nagging injuries, and they miss Nix in the middle.



Because it's December 5.

According to Pomeroy, UNC's schedule (Oakland, Holy Cross, Belmont, Richmond, Louisville, UAB, Michigan State) is ranked #14 while Duke's schedule (Davidson, Kansas, FAU, UNCA, ECU, Vermont, Alabama, Arizona, Michigan) is ranked #119. Their performance against a supposedly much more difficult schedule is why they're #8.

If you want to dig deeper into why their schedule is better, UNC has only played one really bad team and we've played five (numeric ranks are from today's Pomeroy).

UNC's Schedule
---------------
Louisville #1
Michigan State #12
Richmond #61
Belmont #63
UAB #95
Holy Cross #109
Oakland #184

Duke's Schedule
---------------
Arizona #6
Kansas #10
Michigan #27
Alabama #47
Davidson #142
Vermont #156
ECU #172
FAU #255
UNCA #266

UNC will start to drop a little when they play their December schedule (which includes teams currently ranked #5, #68, #142, #222, #313, and #326), because they play several bad teams. Their ACC games will bolster their schedule strength, but if/when they get knocked around, their rating will go down.

Duke's remaining non-conference schedule isn't that good, either (#23, #151, #190, #258). To rise in the rankings we'll have to play well against the tough ACC schedule.


I've had a chance to look at the KenPom ratings more closely this morning. Since the ratings are adjusted for SOS, I'm not sure I understand your logic. It is absolutely possible to be highly ranked (or to move up the rankings) while playing an easy schedule. In fact, Louisville (#1) has SOS ranked 336 and 4 of the top 10 have SOS ranked higher than 200.

So, the fact that it's early in the season and it' s small sample size might explain why UNC is ranked high. But, their SOS really shouldn't explain it unless you believe KenPom's SOS adjustment is both a) flawed and b) flawed in such a way that uniquely rewards UNC for its SOS, but does not reward other teams with high SOS

Kedsy
12-07-2013, 12:53 PM
I've had a chance to look at the KenPom ratings more closely this morning. Since the ratings are adjusted for SOS, I'm not sure I understand your logic. It is absolutely possible to be highly ranked (or to move up the rankings) while playing an easy schedule. In fact, Louisville (#1) has SOS ranked 336 and 4 of the top 10 have SOS ranked higher than 200.

So, the fact that it's early in the season and it' s small sample size might explain why UNC is ranked high. But, their SOS really shouldn't explain it unless you believe KenPom's SOS adjustment is both a) flawed and b) flawed in such a way that uniquely rewards UNC for its SOS, but does not reward other teams with high SOS

First of all, if you want to be technical about it, Pomeroy's overall SOS numbers don't really have anything to do with a team's rating. His rating measures how well your offense does against the other teams' defensive ratings and how well your defense does against the other teams' offensive ratings and then applies a Pythagorean formula to come up with the rating. I just used overall SOS in my post as shorthand because listing all the offensive and defensive ratings would have made it too difficult to read.

Second, especially this early in the season, doing something like scoring 93 points against the #3 defense is going to overinflate your offensive rating. And givng up less than a point per possession actually helped their defensive rating in a loss to UAB. Etc., etc.

As far as other top Pomeroy teams playing poor schedules, there are two main ways to get a good Pomeroy ranking. You can either play awful teams and just crush them, or you can play a strong schedule and not get crushed. UNC has not been uniquely rewarded, but they are the only top 15 schedule in the top 95 teams in Pomeroy's rankings, so it may look unique.

Finally, the schedule adjustment in Pomery is flawed, as it is in pretty much all computer rankings. If a top 40 team plays #150 or #300, would you expect more or less the same level of domination, but the computer thinks a 20 point win over #150 to be a much better result than a 20 point win over #300.

As the season wears on and the sample size increases, the things that lead to crazy-looking results will smooth out. That's why the ratings don't tell us so much in early December.

oldnavy
12-07-2013, 01:58 PM
First of all, if you want to be technical about it, Pomeroy's overall SOS numbers don't really have anything to do with a team's rating. His rating measures how well your offense does against the other teams' defensive ratings and how well your defense does against the other teams' offensive ratings and then applies a Pythagorean formula to come up with the rating. I just used overall SOS in my post as shorthand because listing all the offensive and defensive ratings would have made it too difficult to read.

Second, especially this early in the season, doing something like scoring 93 points against the #3 defense is going to overinflate your offensive rating. And givng up less than a point per possession actually helped their defensive rating in a loss to UAB. Etc., etc.

As far as other top Pomeroy teams playing poor schedules, there are two main ways to get a good Pomeroy ranking. You can either play awful teams and just crush them, or you can play a strong schedule and not get crushed. UNC has not been uniquely rewarded, but they are the only top 15 schedule in the top 95 teams in Pomeroy's rankings, so it may look unique.

Finally, the schedule adjustment in Pomery is flawed, as it is in pretty much all computer rankings. If a top 40 team plays #150 or #300, would you expect more or less the same level of domination, but the computer thinks a 20 point win over #150 to be a much better result than a 20 point win over #300.

As the season wears on and the sample size increases, the things that lead to crazy-looking results will smooth out. That's why the ratings don't tell us so much in early December.

All that stuff is over my head. That is why I just like to watch and put the "eye" test to teams. UNC's eye test so far is.... who the heck knows? Talk about bipolar! I think they much like the computer rankings will level out as the year goes on. They are not as bad as their loss to Belmont (or game against Holy Cross), nor do I believe that they are they as good as their wins over MSU or UL.

I think it is probably wise to wait until after the first round of ACC/conference games to start predicting FF potential for most teams, but especially a team like UNC that has shown such wide swings against such a wide range of talented teams.

After the Belmont game, I thought that they may lose all 4 of the upcoming games (UL, UAB, MSU, and UK).... but now they have won two of the games I was sure they would lose (UL and MSU) and lost the one I thought they had the best chance to win (UAB).... AND, if I had to make a bet, I would pick UNC over UK right now....

At this point, I don't know if they are going to be an NIT team or a FF team...

I do like how the year is shaping up, with no one dominate team and lots and lots of really good teams that will be fun to watch and see which ones rise to the top!

Duke looks as good or at least has the potential to be as good as anybody I have seen thus far... I like that.