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UrinalCake
12-03-2013, 08:48 AM
Ok, crazy question here - let's say we had beaten Pittsburgh in that wild shootout game. We'd be sitting here with one loss and about to play FSU for the ACC title. If we were to then pull a monumental upset and somehow beat FSU, how far would we be from actually being in the conversation for the National Title game?

I ask this because I honestly don't know. How many other one-loss teams are there? How does our strength of schedule compare to them?

And of course in real life we did not beat Pittsburgh (or GA tech for that matter) and I don't expect us to win this weekend. But still, it's a pretty unfathomable thought for a program that has been a laughingstock for years. We're making the Cleveland Indians from the movie Major League look like ordinary chumps 8-)

OldPhiKap
12-03-2013, 08:53 AM
Ok, crazy question here - let's say we had beaten Pittsburgh in that wild shootout game. We'd be sitting here with one loss and about to play FSU for the ACC title. If we were to then pull a monumental upset and somehow beat FSU, how far would we be from actually being in the conversation for the National Title game?

I ask this because I honestly don't know. How many other one-loss teams are there? How does our strength of schedule compare to them?

And of course in real life we did not beat Pittsburgh (or GA tech for that matter) and I don't expect us to win this weekend. But still, it's a pretty unfathomable thought for a program that has been a laughingstock for years. We're making the Cleveland Indians from the movie Major League look like ordinary chumps 8-)

I do not think that a one-loss ACC team ever gets ahead of a one-loss SEC team in this day and age. Let alone a tOSU team that has not lost in two years. But I suspect we would be about where Clemson is at best, and that is not terribly far ahead of where we are now.

Dev11
12-03-2013, 08:57 AM
Ok, crazy question here - let's say we had beaten Pittsburgh in that wild shootout game. We'd be sitting here with one loss and about to play FSU for the ACC title. If we were to then pull a monumental upset and somehow beat FSU, how far would we be from actually being in the conversation for the National Title game?

I ask this because I honestly don't know. How many other one-loss teams are there? How does our strength of schedule compare to them?

And of course in real life we did not beat Pittsburgh (or GA tech for that matter) and I don't expect us to win this weekend. But still, it's a pretty unfathomable thought for a program that has been a laughingstock for years. We're making the Cleveland Indians from the movie Major League look like ordinary chumps 8-)

I've been asking friends this for two or three weeks, and I think we would have entered the polls after beating VT and might now be in the conversation about BCS at-large bid against Clemson, a discussion we would probably lose since Clemson's loss was to a top contender, and ours would be to a GT team that has been inconsistent. If we're selected for Atlanta, I think we end up in the same place we would have been if we'd beaten Pitt, although with a higher ranking.

Still, #12 Duke (11-1) taking on #1 FSU (12-0) sounds pretty sweet.

Blue in the Face
12-03-2013, 09:16 AM
Still, #12 Duke (11-1) taking on #1 FSU (12-0) sounds pretty sweet.
Not as sweet as #20 Duke shocking #1 FSU.

FerryFor50
12-03-2013, 09:18 AM
Ok, crazy question here - let's say we had beaten Pittsburgh in that wild shootout game. We'd be sitting here with one loss and about to play FSU for the ACC title. If we were to then pull a monumental upset and somehow beat FSU, how far would we be from actually being in the conversation for the National Title game?

I ask this because I honestly don't know. How many other one-loss teams are there? How does our strength of schedule compare to them?

And of course in real life we did not beat Pittsburgh (or GA tech for that matter) and I don't expect us to win this weekend. But still, it's a pretty unfathomable thought for a program that has been a laughingstock for years. We're making the Cleveland Indians from the movie Major League look like ordinary chumps 8-)

The answer is easy - Butterfly Effect

We beat Pitt, Duke football becomes overconfident, going into a tailspin losing streak. They drop the remaining games on their schedule and the NCAA vacates the rest of their wins because they find out the Blue Devil mascot is ineligible for receiving impermissible benefits.

Because of the shock of the season's downfall, Coach Cut resigns and Duke is unable to find a replacement, as no one wants to touch the program. As a result, Coach K has to coach football and basketball. He declines to coach the US Olympic team due to his new obligations.

5 star recruits Tyus Jones, Jahlil Okafor and Justise Winslow see that Coach K has too much on his plate, and being huge football fans, they decide to sign with UNC.

UNC wins 41-0 and the drives to Wallace Wade to take a picture of the Duke scoreboard.

Steve Spurrier renounces his love of all things Duke and rips away his SC shirt to reveal Tarheel blue. Larry Fedora, so touched by this gesture, steps aside to let Spurrier coach his newfound love.

Duke basketball starts the season 0-8. Coach K fires Wojo and hires a "real big man coach" - Spud Webb.

Duke then decides to add an AFAM program for its athletes, citing the success they've seen at their rivals in Chapel Hill...

Be careful what you wish for... ;)

roywhite
12-03-2013, 09:37 AM
That Pitt game is interesting to look at just as a significant turning point for the team.

The team demonstated it's resiliency by fighting back from big deficits; Cut decided it was time to go with the young guys, true freshmen in some cases, in the secondary, and we saw evidence of the 4th quarter belonging to a tenacious, well-conditioned Blue Devil team. A defense which gave up a ton of yards to Pitt in the first half of that game did better in the 2nd half, and then began to come together overall.

In some ways, I hope to see our hoops team come along the same way; a little rocky in the first few games, but now looking for an improved defense and the contributions of some young talent.

-bdbd
12-03-2013, 10:12 AM
Not a big fan of 'what if' games. Anything is possible in such a scenario, as Ferry points out. But if you want to be fair, there have been a LOT more such close calls that have broken favorably for us this season. So if you want to ask "What if we beat Pitt" in that close one, then also ask "What if we lost, in other close games..." to Memphis, and/or UVA (no big 2nd-half turn-around), plus Va Tech, Miami, Wake and UNC. Those were all games that could easily have broken the other way, most in which the outcome was undecuided well into the 4th quarter. The what-if's go both ways....

:p



The answer is easy - Butterfly Effect

We beat Pitt, Duke football becomes overconfident, going into a tailspin losing streak. They drop the remaining games on their schedule and the NCAA vacates the rest of their wins because they find out the Blue Devil mascot is ineligible for receiving impermissible benefits.

Because of the shock of the season's downfall, Coach Cut resigns and Duke is unable to find a replacement, as no one wants to touch the program. As a result, Coach K has to coach football and basketball. He declines to coach the US Olympic team due to his new obligations.

5 star recruits Tyus Jones, Jahlil Okafor and Justise Winslow see that Coach K has too much on his plate, and being huge football fans, they decide to sign with UNC.

UNC wins 41-0 and the drives to Wallace Wade to take a picture of the Duke scoreboard.

Steve Spurrier renounces his love of all things Duke and rips away his SC shirt to reveal Tarheel blue. Larry Fedora, so touched by this gesture, steps aside to let Spurrier coach his newfound love.

Duke basketball starts the season 0-8. Coach K fires Wojo and hires a "real big man coach" - Spud Webb.

Duke then decides to add an AFAM program for its athletes, citing the success they've seen at their rivals in Chapel Hill...

Be careful what you wish for... ;)

graybead
12-03-2013, 10:23 AM
Remember, Duke has still never lost a game that Anthony Boone has started at QB. Part of me is optimistic because of that and part of me wonders if Cutcliffe should start Connette so we can keep that streak alive. :)

wilson
12-03-2013, 10:26 AM
That Pitt game is interesting to look at just as a significant turning point for the team.

The team demonstated it's resiliency by fighting back from big deficits; Cut decided it was time to go with the young guys, true freshmen in some cases, in the secondary, and we saw evidence of the 4th quarter belonging to a tenacious, well-conditioned Blue Devil team. A defense which gave up a ton of yards to Pitt in the first half of that game did better in the 2nd half, and then began to come together overall.Luke DeCock of the Raleigh News & Observer (a great columnist to follow if you don't already) outlined pretty much exactly what you've said here in the following piece. Definitely worth a read:
http://www.newsobserver.com/2013/12/01/3424416/decock-at-darkest-moment-duke.html

sagegrouse
12-03-2013, 10:39 AM
Well, in response to the OP's question, here is a list of one-loss or no-loss teams as of now:


AAC (no conf champioship game)
Lullville (Cincy)
UCF (SMU)

ACC:
FSU (0)

Big 12 (no conf championship; as the cognoscenti appreciate, the Big 12 does not, in fact, have 12 members)
Baylor (Texas)
Ok State (Okla)

Big Ten (the two below play on Sat.)
Ohio State (0)
Mich State

MAC
No. Illinois (0) (Bowling Green)

Mt. West
Fresno State (Utah St.)

SEC (Mizzou and Auburn for the championship)
Mizzou
Auburn
Alabama

There are potentially 11 teams with one or zero losses but probably fewer. Ten if Ohio St. beats MSU. Nine if either Baylor or Ok. State lose their tough final games (or eight if both do).

Where does Duke rank among these teams? Almost certainly behind Ohio St. (or Mich St.), Mizzou/Auburn, Alabama, Baylor (with a win), and Ok. State (with a win). That's four or five teams ahead of a victorious Duke and that assumes that Duke would rank ahead of FSU.

I think an 11-1 Duke season would have provoked wonderment and an Orange Bowl berth but not serious consideration for the NC game.

sagegrouse
'BTW the Duke-FSU game is at 8PM Saturday night on ABC'

Wander
12-03-2013, 10:55 AM
I think an 11-1 Duke season would have provoked wonderment and an Orange Bowl berth but not serious consideration for the NC game.


Yeah, compared to the national title contenders, our schedule is awful. Which we don't have to apologize for (and Miami and VT's mediocrity isn't our fault), but for the sake of this thread, we'd be no where near the discussion for the title game - I bet Auburn/Missouri would be ahead of us even if we had an undefeated record, let alone one loss.

The interesting hypothetical to me is the one sagegrouse points out. Could we steal an at-large away from Clemson to the Orange Bowl with an 11-1 regular season? There's precedent to suggest it's possible: in 2007, Missouri was a better team than Kansas, but KU got to the Orange Bowl over MU because... well, I don't remember exactly why, maybe someone else has the details, but I imagine it was a combination of the fact that Kansas had a better record in a vacuum due to an easier schedule and that they were a cool story.

wilson
12-03-2013, 12:29 PM
...in 2007, Missouri was a better team than Kansas, but KU got to the Orange Bowl over MU because... well, I don't remember exactly why, maybe someone else has the details, but I imagine it was a combination of the fact that Kansas had a better record in a vacuum due to an easier schedule and that they were a cool story.It had mainly to do with the timing of the two teams' losses. Missouri defeated Kansas on Thanksgiving weekend, but then Missouri lost the following weekend to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship Game. With the later loss and no time to recover from their attendant tumble in the polls, Kansas lost out on the BCS berth and was relegated to the Cotton Bowl. Kansas, having lost only the one game to Missouri all year, slid into the Orange Bowl.

CDu
12-03-2013, 12:42 PM
If we'd beaten Pitt and had every other result remain as is, we'd be 11-1 heading into the ACC title game. But our 11-1 would fall well short of the 1-loss teams like Auburn, Alabama, Missouri, and Oklahoma State. I'd put us in the same neighborhood as Baylor and Michigan State (i.e., bottom of the top-10). So even a win over FSU wouldn't push us into the debate for the national championship game.

For reference, let's say that Michigan State beats #2 Ohio State this weekend and wins the Big-10 title. They are most assuredly not going to the national title game, nor should they. We'd be in about the same boat. Just not enough high-quality wins (we would just have the lone top-25 win over FSU, as Miami and VT were found to be pretenders).

CameronBornAndBred
12-03-2013, 01:11 PM
I think it was a game we needed to lose. We can get them back next year. Everything since that loss has been a dream, and even the team credits that game for turning it around.
If we had won, I'm not sure we would be playing Saturday night.

gus
12-03-2013, 01:42 PM
The answer is easy - Butterfly Effect

We beat Pitt, Duke football becomes overconfident, going into a tailspin losing streak. They drop the remaining games on their schedule and the NCAA vacates the rest of their wins because they find out the Blue Devil mascot is ineligible for receiving impermissible benefits.

Because of the shock of the season's downfall, Coach Cut resigns and Duke is unable to find a replacement, as no one wants to touch the program. As a result, Coach K has to coach football and basketball. He declines to coach the US Olympic team due to his new obligations.

5 star recruits Tyus Jones, Jahlil Okafor and Justise Winslow see that Coach K has too much on his plate, and being huge football fans, they decide to sign with UNC.

UNC wins 41-0 and the drives to Wallace Wade to take a picture of the Duke scoreboard.

Steve Spurrier renounces his love of all things Duke and rips away his SC shirt to reveal Tarheel blue. Larry Fedora, so touched by this gesture, steps aside to let Spurrier coach his newfound love.

Duke basketball starts the season 0-8. Coach K fires Wojo and hires a "real big man coach" - Spud Webb.

Duke then decides to add an AFAM program for its athletes, citing the success they've seen at their rivals in Chapel Hill...

Be careful what you wish for... ;)

And on top of that, Sue Gordon (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?32278-A-Dukie-Near-the-Top-of-the-CIA-Women-s-Hoops!) would have been out celebrating after that Pitt win, and she wouldn't have noticed that [CENSORED] was [CENSORED] and then [CENSORED] and my god, we would all have been [CENSORED].

So yeah, we should be happy with 10-2.

Last edited by [CENSORED]; Today at 2:45 pm.

davekay1971
12-03-2013, 09:24 PM
Ok, crazy question here - let's say we had beaten Pittsburgh in that wild shootout game. We'd be sitting here with one loss and about to play FSU for the ACC title. If we were to then pull a monumental upset and somehow beat FSU, how far would we be from actually being in the conversation for the National Title game?

I ask this because I honestly don't know. How many other one-loss teams are there? How does our strength of schedule compare to them?

And of course in real life we did not beat Pittsburgh (or GA tech for that matter) and I don't expect us to win this weekend. But still, it's a pretty unfathomable thought for a program that has been a laughingstock for years. We're making the Cleveland Indians from the movie Major League look like ordinary chumps 8-)

The short answer (although I agree with all the butterfly effect type comments below) is that there's no way on God's green earth Duke is getting considered for the Natty at 13-1 (assuming wins of Pitt and FSU and the rest of our results stay the same).

Duke would have, in front of them, 1 loss Alabama, Auburn, Ohio State (0 or 1 losses), and Ok State. And, if Ohio State is 1 loss, then so is Mich State. Baylor's sitting on 1 loss right now.

Unfortunately, where you start in the polls can really crush a team's chances of getting in Natty consideration range. To start totally unconsidered as Duke was, Duke would have to go undefeated and beat a top 5 team like FSU along the way to sniff the national championship game. And even then, they'd need all but one of the traditional powers to have at least one loss. And even then, let's say you have OSU and Duke undefeated, but 'Bama and Auburn sitting at one loss each, Duke's probably getting hosed by the thought that a one loss SEC power MUST be better than Duke.

In short...PLAYOFF!