Al Featherston's latest: Can Duke Sustain Football Success?

[gus]

In his typically excellent article asking Can Duke Sustain Football Success? (http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/2013/11/22/5132710/can-duke-sustain-football-success),
Featherston asks this question:


But can [Cutcliffe] use his current success to recruit the kids who can take him to the top of the college basketball world?

I'm going to go ahead and say "no". As great a coach as Cutcliffe is, I'm not sure he'd be my first choice to fill that (hopefully still many years in the future) vacancy.

[CDu]

I'm going to disagree. The ACC is not a juggernaut of a football conference, and we can certainly continue to schedule a soft out-of-conference schedule to maximize the chance at bowl eligibility. Can we continue to win 9+ games a year? Maybe, maybe not. But continually making bowls? I don't think that's an unreasonable expectation.

I think Coach Cutcliffe is building something sustainable. We know have depth at the skill positions, and we're able to redshirt our top freshmen. Between that and his good coaching, I think good things are to continue. Maybe not THIS good, but still good.

ETA: I now see that you were making light of the typo ("basketball"). My bad. I agree - he's not going to get Duke football to the top of the college basketball world.

[SoCalDukeFan]

In his typically excellent article asking Can Duke Sustain Football Success? (http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/2013/11/22/5132710/can-duke-sustain-football-success),
Featherston asks this question:



I'm going to go ahead and say "no". As great a coach as Cutcliffe is, I'm not sure he'd be my first choice to fill that (hopefully still many years in the future) vacancy.

I think it was an excellent article. The mistake shows what Cut faces in building football at a basketball school.
Even Al has Duke basketball constantly in his head.

SoCal

[gus]

I'm going to disagree. The ACC is not a juggernaut of a football conference, and we can certainly continue to schedule a soft out-of-conference schedule to maximize the chance at bowl eligibility. Can we continue to win 9+ games a year? Maybe, maybe not. But continually making bowls? I don't think that's an unreasonable expectation.

I think Coach Cutcliffe is building something sustainable. We know have depth at the skill positions, and we're able to redshirt our top freshmen. Between that and his good coaching, I think good things are to continue. Maybe not THIS good, but still good.

I was just being snarky about the mistake. Cutcliffe coaches football, not basketball.

In terms of football, I absolutley agree that Duke can sustain a level at which bowl games are a reasonable expectation year in and year out. I am not ready to believe that Duke can be a top 5 team though.

[loran16]

In his typically excellent article asking Can Duke Sustain Football Success? (http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/2013/11/22/5132710/can-duke-sustain-football-success),
Featherston asks this question:



I'm going to go ahead and say "no". As great a coach as Cutcliffe is, I'm not sure he'd be my first choice to fill that (hopefully still many years in the future) vacancy.

As Featherston notes, It's worth noting Cut's got an edge in that his rebuilding year is going to be 2015, not next year - duke loses very few players of real importance (Cockrell, Annunike, Simmons, Harding) next year and returns practically every offensive skill player of relevance. Not to mention the secondary is already 85% Freshmen or Sophomores. Next year's Duke team will take a step back probably only because of a tougher ACC, not because of their own fall. So the recruiting effects of this year should already be in place to help Duke rebuild from the bigger losses coming in 2015.

The real question is whether Duke will be equipped to handle when Cut eventually leaves - Cut will probably stay until he retires, but he's not young and he has health issues. Hopefully that transition, when it eventually comes, will be seamless.

[Duvall]

Next year's Duke team will take a step back probably only because of a tougher ACC, not because of their own fall.

Will the ACC be tougher next year than it is this year? Looking just at the Coastal + Wake slate, it's hard to see those games being substantially tougher next year.

[bleudiable]

The real question is whether Duke will be equipped to handle when Cut eventually leaves - Cut will probably stay until he retires, but he's not young and he has health issues. Hopefully that transition, when it eventually comes, will be seamless.

By that time I hope that the new Wade-Cutcliffe Stadium ("The Cut") will be rocking for many fall Saturdays to come.

But I wonder if we can't be competitive on a Stanford level so that when Cut recruits the next Andrew Luck the pieces are there to have a breakthrough year. As I have said before, I have learned not to doubt what the man says. Why are our expectations so low (bowl eligibility every year) when his (championships) are not?

[loran16]

Will the ACC be tougher next year than it is this year? Looking just at the Coastal + Wake slate, it's hard to see those games being substantially tougher next year.

Miami should be better - as should VT.

UVA can't be worse.

[Duvall]

Miami should be better - as should VT.

UVA can't be worse.

"Miami should be better" is probably one of the most-repeated phrases in the last decade of ACC football.

VT does have a young defense that should improve next year. But then, they finally have to come back to Duke for a game.

[gus]

By that time I hope that the new Wade-Cutcliffe Stadium ("The Cut") will be rocking for many fall Saturdays to come.

But I wonder if we can't be competitive on a Stanford level so that when Cut recruits the next Andrew Luck the pieces are there to have a breakthrough year. As I have said before, I have learned not to doubt what the man says. Why are our expectations so low (bowl eligibility every year) when his (championships) are not?

The problem with comparisons to Standford is that, while they have similar obstacles in terms of academic rigors... they have quite a few advantages over Duke. Chief among those is a half billion athletics only endowment.

[nyesq83]

Like you wrote, "In the Cut"...

And I believe that Duke can reach higher heights, but only one game at a time.

If Cut can continue to recruit great QB's and we can get get breakout receivers and talented players on both sides of the ball who have athleticism and football intelligence and heart, Duke Football can excel every year.

Assistant coaches must stay within the program, or if they leave, their assistants must be able to replace them for success to be perennial.

[TruBlu]

In terms of football, I absolutley agree that Duke can sustain a level at which bowl games are a reasonable expectation year in and year out. I am not ready to believe that Duke can be a top 5 team though.

I do not believe that Duke can be a consistent top 5 team, but I do believe that we can be an occasional top 5 team when our recruiting gets better, which should happen with the success we are currently experiencing.

I do predict that Duke will cease to be the favorite team for our opponents to schedule for their homecoming game.:)

[NYBri]

In order for the football program to become capable of developing a top 5 team, it has to start with the recruiting. At the moment, we are basically getting 3 star players with the sprinkling of a few 4 star. The top five programs get 5 star players at skill positions and they are backed up by mainly 4 star guys.

Tom Izzo says that great players make him a better coach because they play better and win more games. It all starts with the players.

[SoCalDukeFan]

I am in awe of the job Cut has done in rebuilding the football program and he have overcome some significant obstacles.

Realistically the next step is continued top 1/2 in the ACC Coastal or regular top 20 in the nation.

IMHO Duke could have a top 5/10 team IF they have a great QB and a season with few injuries, but it will be hard to maintain. However I think getting to where they are now would be very hard. (It probably was which just shows the great job Cut did.)

The regular top teams have at least two significant advantages:
1. Geographic recruiting - Without putting down NC high school football, for relatively local talent Duke must compete with NC, NC State, Wake, Va, Va Tech, South Carolina, Clemson etc. Compare that to Ohio State who basically owns Ohio; 3 programs in Florida; two in Alabama; a few in Texas; 2 in So Cal.

2. Money - Look at the athletic budgets in the SEC. Stanford has all that endowment money. Texas has their own network, Oregon has a billionaire who seems to want to see how much he can spend on Oregon sports.

Having said this, the more Duke wins the easier the recruiting will get for Cut. I personally think Duke's overall reputation is excellent and a winning program will have an easier time getting national recruits.

SoCal

[Reilly]

I do not believe that Duke can be a consistent top 5 team ...

Given that FSU has had one final AP top 10 team in the past 12 years (this year will make 2 in 13 seasons), and that Clemson has not finished in the AP final top 10 in 23 years, I agree with you.

Final AP top 10 finishes by ACC schools (ACC around since 1953; school achieve it when in ACC):

BC: 2007
MD: 1953, 1954, 1955, 1976
VA: - never -
VT: 2004, 2005, 2007, 2009
Duke: 1960
UNC: 1980, 1981, 1996, 1997
State: - never -
WFU: - never -
Clemson: 1978, 1981, 1982, 1988, 1990
GT: 1990, 1998
FSU: 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2012
Miami: - never -

[JasonEvans]

Given that FSU has had one final AP top 10 team in the past 12 years (this year will make 2 in 13 seasons), and that Clemson has not finished in the AP final top 10 in 23 years, I agree with you.

Final AP top 10 finishes by ACC schools (ACC around since 1953; school achieve it when in ACC):

BC: 2007
MD: 1953, 1954, 1955, 1976
VA: - never -
VT: 2004, 2005, 2007, 2009
Duke: 1960
UNC: 1980, 1981, 1996, 1997
State: - never -
WFU: - never -
Clemson: 1978, 1981, 1982, 1988, 1990
GT: 1990, 1998
FSU: 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2012
Miami: - never -

Wow, this is some truly excellent research!

George Welsh had some very good teams at UVA in the late 80s and 90s. I sorta find it hard to believe he never had a top ten team. to me the really stunning thing is that Miami, who was a fixture in the top 5 in the 80s and 90s and even into the early 2000s, has never been a top ten team since joining the ACC. They were largely brought in to boost our football profile and give us a national title contender but they haven't even finished the season ranked in the Top 25 in 6 of the 9 seasons they have been in the conference. Sigh...

-Jason "we sure ain't a football conference" Evans

[Reilly]

...this is some truly excellent research ...

Thanks. But not really. www.cfbdatawarehouse.com has an "in the polls" page for each team, so it's very easy to look up.

[Olympic Fan]

Good stuff reilly ... it should help us keep expectations in perspective.

Agree that Duke is never going to be a consistent top 5 team or even top 10 team. Few programs are.

But can Duke get there every once in a while? Maybe one great national run every decade with 4-5 extra conference title contenders in there ... with minor bowls in the "off" years?

That's what I want to see.

Is that impossible?

[Reilly]

... UVA in the late 80s and 90s. I sorta find it hard to believe he never had a top ten team...

UVa was the #1 team in the land for 3 weeks in 1990 ... finished #23 that year:

http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/virginia/polls.html

[Wander]

Good stuff reilly ... it should help us keep expectations in perspective.

Agree that Duke is never going to be a consistent top 5 team or even top 10 team. Few programs are.

But can Duke get there every once in a while? Maybe one great national run every decade with 4-5 extra conference title contenders in there ... with minor bowls in the "off" years?

That's what I want to see.

Is that impossible?

No way - hell, if you replayed this exact season 100 times, I bet there are a couple universes where Duke is undefeated and ranked in the top 10 this season.

There's been a lot of comparisons to the Wake team that won the ACC a few years ago, and that's a fair comparison in a lot of ways, but here's one important difference: that Wake team was largely the result of patient redshirting and a lot of 5th year seniors. On the other hand, we have a ton of important players who aren't seniors. We're built well for the long term.

[Faison1]

Sorry to slightly change the subject, but when do they start digging out the track? Is it end of this year?

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Like you wrote, "In the Cut"...

And I believe that Duke can reach higher heights, but only one game at a time.

If Cut can continue to recruit great QB's and we can get get breakout receivers and talented players on both sides of the ball who have athleticism and football intelligence and heart, Duke Football can excel every year.

Assistant coaches must stay within the program, or if they leave, their assistants must be able to replace them for success to be perennial.

You make a great point about assistants. Not to take any credit from Cut, who has done an incredible job, but he has been aided by the university's increased willingness to pay assistants, which has allowed him to hire and retain a great staff. After a season like this, I'm sure many other schools will be lurking to try to hire away our staff, and I'm sure some will leave for other opportunities. Hopefully Cut will be able to hire a new crop of great assistants to continue this success - based on his track record, I have full faith in his ability to do so.

[throatybeard]

George Welsh had some very good teams at UVA in the late 80s and 90s.

IIRC, they had a habit of getting out to a hot starts, and then running into problems in November and their bowl game.

[loran16]

You make a great point about assistants. Not to take any credit from Cut, who has done an incredible job, but he has been aided by the university's increased willingness to pay assistants, which has allowed him to hire and retain a great staff. After a season like this, I'm sure many other schools will be lurking to try to hire away our staff, and I'm sure some will leave for other opportunities. Hopefully Cut will be able to hire a new crop of great assistants to continue this success - based on his track record, I have full faith in his ability to do so.

Yeah this is one area (although I haven't loved his D assistants, this year notwithstanding) that Cut has my full faith on. Cut is legendary for his loyalty to assistants (He got fired from Ole Miss because of it!) and we've already had a few poached away. But that loyalty will bring other talented assistants to us as replacements. They'll WANT to come here, which is a good thing.

[Tom B.]

George Welsh had some very good teams at UVA in the late 80s and 90s. I sorta find it hard to believe he never had a top ten team.




Welsh consistently had good teams, but never really had any great teams. Even his best UVa teams always seemingly managed to lose 3 or 4 games, which kept them out of the final Top 10.

His 1989 team, which won a share of the ACC championship (shared with Spurrier's last Duke team, though UVa beat Duke head-to-head that year) was 10-2 in the regular season, then lost to Illinois in the Citrus Bowl. Final AP rank: 18.

The next year, UVa reached #1 and held the spot for two weeks, before losing two of its last three regular season games (including a home loss on a last-second field goal to eventual national co-champion Georgia Tech) and losing to Tennessee in the Sugar Bowl. Final AP rank: 23.

His 1995 team had a bunch of future NFL players (Tiki Barber, Ronde Barber, James Farrior, Jamie Sharper, Percy Ellsworth, Patrick Jeffers, Anthony Poindexter....there may have been others that I just can't remember now), was the first ACC team to beat Florida State in conference play, tied with Florida State for the regular season ACC title (with a 7-1 conference record), but lost three non-conference games, all painfully. They lost the season opener at Michigan by one (18-17) when the Wolverines scored a fourth-down touchdown on the last play of the game. They lost at Texas by one (17-16) after Texas converted a 4th-and-10 on its final drive, then Phil Dawson kicked a 50-yard field goal into the wind as time expired. And in the regular season finale, they lost at home to Virginia Tech after leading for most of the game, only to see Virginia Tech go ahead by one on a TD with 47 seconds left (on a drive that featured, all together now, a 4th-and-10 conversion). Virginia did get the ball back, and drove to the Virginia Tech 41 with 6 seconds left. A quick completion to the sideline for five yards or so would've given Virginia a chance to kick a long field goal for the win -- but instead, Virginia QB Mike Groh (son of future UVa coach Al Groh) threw a pick that the Hokie defender ran back for a touchdown as time expired, to account for the 36-29 final score. UVa went on to beat Georgia in the Peach Bowl. Final AP rank: 16.

[Bob Green]

If Cut can continue to recruit great QB's...

What is your definition of great? Hopefully this doesn't come across harsh, but I'd argue Coach Cutcliffe has yet to recruit a great QB to Duke. Perhaps the success Duke is achieving this year will convince some 5-Star QB in the Class of 2015 to commit to Duke.

[Devil in the Blue Dress]

What is your definition of great? Hopefully this doesn't come across harsh, but I'd argue Coach Cutcliffe has yet to recruit a great QB to Duke. Perhaps the success Duke is achieving this year will convince some 5-Star QB in the Class of 2015 to commit to Duke.
This is an important idea and right on point.

[duke09hms]

Sorry to slightly change the subject, but when do they start digging out the track? Is it end of this year?

This is an important point. Can't wait for Wallace Wade to be without the track. My friends from other schools have been tuning into Duke games all year thanks to yours truly, and they all comment on how embarrassing the track is.

"You guys play at a high school?"

[davekay1971]

This is an important point. Can't wait for Wallace Wade to be without the track. My friends from other schools have been tuning into Duke games all year thanks to yours truly, and they all comment on how embarrassing the track is.

"You guys play at a high school?"

I love the track!

I love that Wallace Wade Stadium is a multipurpose facility on campus. I love that, when the football team isn't there, you can go jog the track or, if you're a glutton for punishment, the stadium steps. I love that other sports compete there. I love that the cardiac rehab and obesity clinic patients are regularly there hoofing it around the track.

I know it makes Wallace Wade look like a small school football stadium, and part of competing on a championship level means having football facilities look like, well, Big University Football Facilities. But I'd hate to see the track go.

Sorry, just a old-guy nostalgia rant. If football success drives the university to getting rid of the track, moving to a new stadium, or converting Wallace Wade so dramatically that it doesn't look anything like the field I charged in 1989 when we took down Clemson, I guess I could live with that.

Better than, say, hiring a shady coach who brings in a notoriously shady recruiting Associate Head Coach, gets in bed with agents and (metaphorically speaking) academic tutors, and helps turn an entire academic department into a supply shop for fraudulent grades to keep academically unfit students athletically eligible...though, of course, that's an extreme hypothetical approach that NO self-respecting university would take.

[loran16]

This is an important point. Can't wait for Wallace Wade to be without the track. My friends from other schools have been tuning into Duke games all year thanks to yours truly, and they all comment on how embarrassing the track is.

"You guys play at a high school?"

Won't happen till 2015 apparently, due to a delay in other work.

Which is fine, because Duke's track team's new facility wasn't going to be ready until 2015.

[Faison1]

I love the track!

Having a track around a football field is like having volleyball lines on a basketball court. It shows that the program may or may not be around for the long haul.

[Faison1]

Won't happen till 2015 apparently, due to a delay in other work.

Which is fine, because Duke's track team's new facility wasn't going to be ready until 2015.

That's a bummer about the track/dig being postponed. I was watching the Miami game with a bunch of non-Duke fans, and I swore it was happening at the end of this season. They were giving me a TON of grief about the track.

Digging out the track also shows a major committment to the players themselves. Imagine showing up to a black-tie affair with an orange or light blue tux on.

[duke09hms]

Won't happen till 2015 apparently, due to a delay in other work.

Which is fine, because Duke's track team's new facility wasn't going to be ready until 2015.

Man, really?! I thought it was starting this past Sunday, as in right after the year's last home game! I was telling all my friends, "hey man, Duke is serious about football now, the track is coming out tomorrow."

So probably two more seasons in a high school-looking stadium? sighhh

[Duvall]

Man, really?! I thought it was starting this past Sunday, as in right after the year's last home game! I was telling all my friends, "hey man, Duke is serious about football now, the track is coming out tomorrow."

So probably two more seasons in a high school-looking stadium? sighhh

One more season. But I'm pretty sure the team gets to play either way, so it's hard to see why it makes much difference.

[GGLC]

One more season. But I'm pretty sure the team gets to play either way, so it's hard to see why it makes much difference.

It probably makes at least some difference in how recruits view the school.

[DueBlevil]

Man, really?! I thought it was starting this past Sunday, as in right after the year's last home game! I was telling all my friends, "hey man, Duke is serious about football now, the track is coming out tomorrow."

So probably two more seasons in a high school-looking stadium? sighhh

Probably one more... work is now supposed to start after next season to be completed for 2015 season. Allegedly.

[Faison1]

One more season. But I'm pretty sure the team gets to play either way, so it's hard to see why it makes much difference.

It tells the world we are moving beyond the 60's?

Maybe recruits start to see Duke's commitment, especially if we're good next year?

If Duke is good, more games will be broadcast to a larger audience?

Isn't it best to look good if you're trying to send a signal?

[Duvall]

It tells the world we are moving beyond the 60's?

Maybe recruits start to see Duke's commitment, especially if we're good next year?

If Duke is good, more games will be broadcast to a larger audience?

Isn't it best to look good if you're trying to send a signal?

Image is everything? Sure, why not.

[Faison1]

Image is everything? Sure, why not.

You're right. From what I've read, Coach K believes in showing up to recruiting visits wearing torn jeans and being pretty much unprofessional.

And the cars he shows up in are all Chevy Corsicas.

[-jk]

Meh, we have an indoor practice building - for those awful Derm winters. They'll deal with a track.

Apparently, the very wet summer put the new track behind schedule.

-jk

[Faison1]

Image is everything? Sure, why not.

Sorry....my last reply was too snippy

[johnb]

First, kudos to Al Featherston: a terrific article.

Second, football recruiting is different from basketball in that nobody gets all 5 star guys (not even the Dukes of the football world), but they do need a lot of players--and the top programs do tend to get a whole lot of 4 star guys. with a sprinkling of 5 stars. And from looking at lists, it's fairly clear that the big bulk of players attend their local flagship state university. A few go from rural Texas to Oregon, but generally they go from, say, Shreveport to LSU.

Our recruiting classses have tended to be composed iof a bunch of guys who they rate as 3 stars (though this year's potential class has 3 4 stars). It'd be a huge jump to a school like Alabama ( in the upcoming class: 2 5's, 16 4's, and 2 3's); and a lesser but very big jump to places like Miami (15 4's, 10 3's); Florida State (13 4's, 11 3's); and Va Tech (7 4's and 10 3's). Stanford, which has become a top tier program, does not recruit on that level. This year, according to espn, they are looking at 6, 4 stars and 10, 3 stars. Last year, they got 6, 4 stars and 6, 3 stars. In 2012, they got 1 5 star, 7 4 star, and 13 3 stars. This is not totally out of reach for Duke. One difference is that 13 of Stanford's recruits in those 3 years were in espn's top 300, while Duke hasn't gotten any of those recruits. I'd quickly add that I trust Cutcliffe's judgment more than any reporters' judgment, and so he may well be able to spot and recruit players who might get underrated by others. Nevertheless,

It's also probably safe to say that 5 star quarterbacks like to play behind great offense lines, throw to great receivers, and hand off to great backs, so it's not likely we'll get the next great 5 star qb without amping up the overall recruiting; that shouldn't keep us from getting teh next great 3 or 4 star qb who blossoms into something spectacular.

Anyway, from Featherston's article, I feel reassured that we have arrived at very good and are on a path that could lead to great if the cards continue to fall our way.