Phase I - 2013-2014 MBB Season

[superdave]

Phase I will run from game 1 versus Davidson through the Preseason NIT which will hopefully include an 8th game for the Phase, which would be the Championship game in Madison Square Garden. We will learn an awful lot about our guys in a relatively short amount of time. I will focus on the Davidson and Kansas matchups here and we can re-visit topics after we get some games under our belts and know the team and tendencies better.

(1) Health – Rasheed missed the scrimmage against Drury. He was in uniform but did not play due to some unspecified illness. Rasheed ishould be in the mix for Davidson this Friday. Marshall has played 20 minutes through the two games and I have not heard any mention of his previous foot injury slowing him down. Onward!

(2) Depth & Rotation – It is usually difficult to draw many conclusions from two exhibition games, but we were down to Drury at the half. Eight players earned double-digit minutes in that game. The three who did not were Andre, Marshall and Alex. I did not see the game, so I’ll defer to others on the subject.

I do suspect Marshall will be deployed situationally this season. When we have a matchup problem with a big guy or we get into foul trouble, Marshall is likely to see his minutes go from single digits to double.

Also, with Davidson and Kansas as our first two opponents, I think you can expect Coach K to play a tighter rotation than is typical for the first of the season. That may be true once we get into the NIT games as well, with minutes more spread out at the home games versus FAU, Asheville and Vermont.

(3) Rebounding & Interior Defense – Through two exhibition games, Amile Jefferson has 20 rebounds in 37 minutes, Rodney Hood has 17 in 64 minutes, Jabari Parker has 7 in 52. Off the bench, Marshall Plumlee has 2 rebounds in 13 minutes, Hairston has 9 in 25, Semi has 7 in 21, and Murphy has 5 in 20. Judging from these exhibition stats, Amile is likely to be indispensible on the boards for us. But this is a team effort so even the guards will have to contribute.

Duke’s first opponent will be Davidson this Friday. Davidson is not a powerhouse on the interior, does not have a gunner named Curry, but they will be prepared, well-coached and will spread our guys out and fight us for every rebound and loose ball. They return De’Mon Brooks, a 6’7’’ 240lb forward who led the team with 6 rebounds a game last year and Chris Czerapowicz, a 6’7’’ 210lb forward who averaged 5 boards a game. Their height will not hurt us, but our inattention to boxing out very well could. Duke’s prep should focus on limiting the Wildcarts to one, single, contested shot attempt. If they start hitting backdoor passes and get our defenders to turn their heads in funny ways, we could give up enough second chance points to give them hope.

Duke’s interior defense will get its first big test against Kansas. Joel Embiid is a 7 foot, 250lb center with lottery potential. If Amile cannot check him or gets into foul trouble, we may see the first meaningful minutes of Marshall’s career. Even if Marshall simply leans on Embid for 5 minutes each half, it may be enough to neutralize a huge potential problem. I look forward to seeing Marshall mix it up knowing his teammates need him. It will be very instructive.

Looking further down the Kansas roster, Duke will have to contend with sophomore forward Perry Ellis who has been mentioned as potentially having a breakout season even though he was a modest rotation player last year. Kansas will also play Tarik Black, a post-grad transfer from Memphis that Duke flirted with, significant minutes. And then there’s some guy named Andrew Wiggins, who we’ll just have to assume Jabari Parker desires to cover like Woodward on Nixon. I expect that matchup to be fun, but a wash.

(4) Defensive Style & Tempo – If Duke runs as much as Coach K and the athletic roster suggest, Duke will pressure the ball and overplay the passing lanes for the purpose of speeding up opponents, forcing turnovers and scoring in transition. Our frontcourt may be athletic enough to overcome size issues against anyone and be really disruptive. Will we rely on opur backcourt to pressure the ball in a more half-court scheme or will we pick up full-court occassiionaly (or even a lot)? I would love to see us pressure full-court against Davidson and Kansas because they have inexperienced backcourts. Put that depth and athleticism to work.

Davidson is likely to try to slow the game down. According to statsheet.com, they averaged 65 possessions per game last season, 248th in the country. Davidson also only averaged 10.9 turnovers per game last season. They execute well and are disciplined so speeding Davidson up will be tough. However, their senior guards from last season, Cochran and Kuhlman, are gone so Quinn and Tyler will have the opportunity to get after a younger backcourt. This will be good practice for speeding up the relatively green KU backcourt a few days later.

Kansas will play a lot more like Duke – up and down whenever possible to utilize the explosiveness of Andrew Wiggins in the open court. Wiggins’ comp is Tracy McGrady. Embiid and Ellis both run the floor pretty well for bigs. The Kansas backcourt is not as strong as their frontcourt and dominating those matchups is a key for Duke to beat the Jayhawks. Ben McLemore is a Sacramento King and Elijah Johnson is playing in Poland now, so the car keys go to Naadir Tharpe who averaged 5 points, 3 assists last season off the bench. Frank Mason, Andrew White and Wayne Selden will also get significant backcourt minutes. Mason and Selden are freshmen and White only played 125 minutes last season. It would be really encouraging to see Quinn dominate his matchup in a big game.

(5) Andre, Rasheed and Matt – I took the liberty of adding Matt in to Kedsy's topic of Andre and Rasheed. I think we need to give this some time to play out. Matt Jones is rumored to play great defense. Rasheed started a lot last season and took over at times, on both ends no less. We have a lot of successful operating history with Andre, even though we would like more consistency.

Like Marshall, I think Andre will be a situational weapon this season. Andre should get a few minutes about midway through the first half where Coach K can check Andre’s temperature. If he hits that first trey – look out. You could be in for a run. If not, Andre’s minutes will be down some.

Hopefully, the three guys will spur each other to a consistently high level of play through friendly competition. The more we run, the more I see these three guys all getting minutes and shots.

(6) Any Weakness on Offense? – Duke shot 49 of 78 from the free throw line the first two exhibition games (62.8%). Bears watching.

I also hate to say it, but Duke shot 25% from three in Phase 0. Hopefully, we’ll get two hot outside shooters each game considering the depth and talent we have in the backcourt and on the wing.

Amile scored 28 points in the exhibition games on 12-17 shooting. I do not know how many traditional post plays we will run for him, or if he will be more of an opportunistic scorer, but it’s probably safe to say our interior scoring will not resemble what Mason did last season. Our wings can slash the lane and create easy buckets inside, so this may be a moot point.

(7) Leadership & Chemistry – It was a surprise to me that Quinn Cook was not named a captain during the preseason. I hope he aspires to that role. He made a big leap forward last season and is very close to becoming an elite point guard. Quinn was 3rd team All-ACC last year and is on the preseason Cousy Award list this season. I will be looking to see if he is the dominant voice on the court early on.

I just saw that Josh Hairston was named the third captain along with Rodney and Tyler. Congrats to Josh. As Kedsy pointed out in Phase 0, Tyler and Josh are our 7th and 8th men in the rotation (most likely) so it could be an odd leadership season.

Coach K has a lot of weapons at his disposal. He also has finite minutes to go around. Practice will be intense this season because these guys know that is how you earn minutes.

Davidson is always a difficult puzzle to figure out. That particular team will challenge Duke’s ability to translate practice into in-game execution and will be a good opener. The Kansas game feels big, particularly with some recruiting battles going down. We are in for a very competitive start to the season.

[Kedsy]

Phase I will run from game 1 versus Davidson through the Preseason NIT which will hopefully include an 8th game for the Phase, which would be the Championship game in Madison Square Garden. We will learn an awful lot about our guys in a relatively short amount of time. I will focus on the Davidson and Kansas matchups here and we can re-visit topics after we get some games under our belts and know the team and tendencies better.

Nice phase post, Dave. The Kansas matchup in particular should be a bellwether test for the Blue Devils.

I continue to feel that with Rodney, Jabari, Quinn, and Tyler (and I guess now Josh), we have plenty of leadership, but as airowe recently pointed out to me, the fact that two bench players were named captains suggests something about the starters' leadership capabilities.

I think we'll be watching the minute distribution very closely all year. At the moment, the Rasheed/Andre/Matt/Tyler mashup is most interesting to me. I strongly feel that Andre's outside shooting will be an important weapon for us, so hopefully he'll have a good game or two in the near future.

This team reminds me most of the 2002 Duke team. I suspect attention span and free throw shooting will be issues for much of the season.

[Henderson]

Excellent stuff. Thanks.

At the risk of sounding trite, the Kansas game will tell us a lot. Not only is it a talented team, played on a neutral court, but it will answer questions about this team's ability to deal with a talented team with a bigger front line. Will we create more matchup problems than we face?

Other teams will go to school on that game if we don't deal with it well. But they'll go to school on that game if we do. I just hope we put fear into scouting assistant rather than hand them an outline for success.

Agreed about FT shooting. Other teams need to fear fouling our fast fluid players. If they don't, and we don't make them pay, not only are we at a scoring disadvantage, but the pace of the game goes down, which is not to our advantage.

Let's get it on.

[Newton_14]

Great Phase Post Dave. Well done.


Nice phase post, Dave. The Kansas matchup in particular should be a bellwether test for the Blue Devils.

I continue to feel that with Rodney, Jabari, Quinn, and Tyler (and I guess now Josh), we have plenty of leadership, but as airowe recently pointed out to me, the fact that two bench players were named captains suggests something about the starters' leadership capabilities.

I think we'll be watching the minute distribution very closely all year. At the moment, the Rasheed/Andre/Matt/Tyler mashup is most interesting to me. I strongly feel that Andre's outside shooting will be an important weapon for us, so hopefully he'll have a good game or two in the near future.

This team reminds me most of the 2002 Duke team. I suspect attention span and free throw shooting will be issues for much of the season.

Agree on most all the points here. On the one hand, I am not convinced K will stick with the new plan to play a deeper bench, especially if it isn't working out well in the early going, specifically the games in this Phase. Old habits die hard. All too easy to dial it back to 7.5 player rotation and try to develop chemistry and consistency with the smaller group. On the other hand, there are so many good players on this team that can offer different skillsets and different looks to the defense, it gives K a lot of options that he may want to utilize. Especially game by game when maybe a different player is having an off night. He can trot out 1 or 2 other guys in that spot that maybe are having a good night so he rolls with them. In any given game it could be someone different stepping up. I do think the backbone of the team is going to be Hood, Jabari, Amile. Those guys look to be in line to get the lions share of minutes every game. I think K will look to see what other 3 to 4 guys can fit well with those 3. I love Quinn as much as the next guy, and he is the most talented PG on the team, but even there, both Rasheed, and Matt can play the point if Quinn is having an off night or something. If we have games like that, it opens up minutes for Murphy, Andre, Matt/Rasheed(whichever one isn't paying the point) to get a few more minutes on the wing.


Excellent stuff. Thanks.

At the risk of sounding trite, the Kansas game will tell us a lot. Not only is it a talented team, played on a neutral court, but it will answer questions about this team's ability to deal with a talented team with a bigger front line. Will we create more matchup problems than we face?

Other teams will go to school on that game if we don't deal with it well. But they'll go to school on that game if we do. I just hope we put fear into scouting assistant rather than hand them an outline for success.

Agreed about FT shooting. Other teams need to fear fouling our fast fluid players. If they don't, and we don't make them pay, not only are we at a scoring disadvantage, but the pace of the game goes down, which is not to our advantage.

Let's get it on.

This is a good observation as well. I am anxious to see how well we handle the big front line of Kansas. Jabari, Amile, and Josh I think will get the early minutes there and based on how they perform, we will either see those 3 at the Forward spots the bulk of the night, or if not, one or more of MP3, Murphy, Semi will get thrown in there to see what they can do. Other option is to go small and try to exploit the Kansas bigs when they are on defense. A 7 Footer chasing Hood or Jabari around will be a test.

[Kedsy]

Other option is to go small and try to exploit the Kansas bigs when they are on defense. A 7 Footer chasing Hood or Jabari around will be a test.

As we discussed in the Phase 0 thread, this option makes a lot of sense to me. Most college bigs would have no chance to successfully guard either Jabari or Rodney. We'll see about Black, Ellis, and Embiid, but if we go small I could easily envision Kansas having to go with only one of these (Ellis?) at C and go smaller/quicker at PF.

[kAzE]

(4) Defensive Style & Tempo – If Duke runs as much as Coach K and the athletic roster suggest, Duke will pressure the ball and overplay the passing lanes for the purpose of speeding up opponents, forcing turnovers and scoring in transition. Our frontcourt may be athletic enough to overcome size issues against anyone and be really disruptive. Will we rely on opur backcourt to pressure the ball in a more half-court scheme or will we pick up full-court occassiionaly (or even a lot)? I would love to see us pressure full-court against Davidson and Kansas because they have inexperienced backcourts. Put that depth and athleticism to work.

I think you nailed this. I think the way we beat Kansas is to go small, pick them up full court, and make life for their inexperienced guards just miserable. I see us winning that game, especially because of just how young Kansas is. Three of their key rotational players are freshmen, and neither of their starting guards have been starters before this year. At least early in the season, we SHOULD be the better team. Also, I just think Jabari is a superior college player compared to Wiggins. Wiggins seems a tad overrated at this point to me. He has all the potential in the world, but Jabari's game is just more polished right now.


The Kansas game feels big, particularly with some recruiting battles going down. We are in for a very competitive start to the season.

I was thinking about this as well. I wonder if this game swings the pendulum one way or the other for the Tyus/Jahlil combo. This will be a huge game with a national TV audience. NBA scouts will be everywhere. Obviously, Tyus and Jahlil will be watching. I hope we dominate them. I also hope Embiid starts over Tarik Black and Black has a horrible game, and then openly admits afterwards that he made a terrible mistake by choosing Kansas over Duke. That would make me a happy Dukie.

[greybeard]

Duke might be a better team with Plumlee seeing much playing time, and/or not contributing very much during the regular season. However, if Duke will have a real shot, I mean a real shot, and I had to pick the difference maker, it will be him. He will not simply be used to math-up against tall opposing centers to jnegate a height advantage, but he will be used to create one. Also, Duke, if it is to reach it's full potential will have to get Plumlee the ball on the move, a high-low game with someone could shoot from 17-15 feet, I believe that he will create sufficient separation from his big defender to score the ball consistently. That maybe why K is giving him as many minutes as he can during the early part of the season and will find some minutes for him during he heat of the regular season.

This is mu intuition talking from what very little I've saw of him last year. I think that he sees and has a real feel for the court, in pictures he sees and thinks, moving pictures in multi -imensions. "What have they done to my brain, Ma, what have they done to my brain."

Remember who was the key to the last championship team and who called it. The year of Marshall Plumlee, even if it is only 15-17 minutes a game.

[Des Esseintes]

Duke might be a better team with Plumlee seeing much playing time, and/or not contributing very much during the regular season. However, if Duke will have a real shot, I mean a real shot, and I had to pick the difference maker, it will be him. He will not simply be used to math-up against tall opposing centers to jnegate a height advantage, but he will be used to create one. Also, Duke, if it is to reach it's full potential will have to get Plumlee the ball on the move, a high-low game with someone could shoot from 17-15 feet, I believe that he will create sufficient separation from his big defender to score the ball consistently. That maybe why K is giving him as many minutes as he can during the early part of the season and will find some minutes for him during he heat of the regular season.

This is mu intuition talking from what very little I've saw of him last year. I think that he sees and has a real feel for the court, in pictures he sees and thinks, moving pictures in multi -imensions. "What have they done to my brain, Ma, what have they done to my brain."

Remember who was the key to the last championship team and who called it. The year of Marshall Plumlee, even if it is only 15-17 minutes a game.

Totally agree. If Marshall sees only static images in one dimension, I would have to think that will impede his development. But in interviews and such, he appears to have the regular human complement of eyes, and they move in tandem. I haven't watched much interview footage, mind you, but I think we may conclude Marshall possesses AT MINIMUM the ability to see in two dimensions. Obviously, it would be great if both of his eyes were completely functional and he was capable of depth perception. On a basketball court, depth perception can be a huge advantage over an opponent who lacks it. Same goes for being able to discern movement. Big, big advantage over the opponent who cannot. In that respect, I want Duke to be the hunter, not the hunted, so to speak. Anyway, since I have heard no reports of him being completely blind in either eye or suffering from any hemispheric brain trauma, perhaps that too is a comfortable assumption? Now, the big one: fourth dimension. Is Marshall aware of the existence of time? Again, going off interviews I've heard him refer to events in the past AS WELL AS the future. So unless he's just mimicking stuff he's heard from his big brothers, Marshall probably has some degree of temporal understanding. I hope? We're a prestige program. A center for Duke University must not only be able to recognize what a clock is FOR but also interpret what the clock is SAYING. Fingers crossed, y'all.

[slower]

Totally agree. If Marshall sees only static images in one dimension, I would have to think that will impede his development. But in interviews and such, he appears to have the regular human complement of eyes, and they move in tandem. I haven't watched much interview footage, mind you, but I think we may conclude Marshall possesses AT MINIMUM the ability to see in two dimensions. Obviously, it would be great if both of his eyes were completely functional and he was capable of depth perception. On a basketball court, depth perception can be a huge advantage over an opponent who lacks it. Same goes for being able to discern movement. Big, big advantage over the opponent who cannot. In that respect, I want Duke to be the hunter, not the hunted, so to speak. Anyway, since I have heard no reports of him being completely blind in either eye or suffering from any hemispheric brain trauma, perhaps that too is a comfortable assumption? Now, the big one: fourth dimension. Is Marshall aware of the existence of time? Again, going off interviews I've heard him refer to events in the past AS WELL AS the future. So unless he's just mimicking stuff he's heard from his big brothers, Marshall probably has some degree of temporal understanding. I hope? We're a prestige program. A center for Duke University must not only be able to recognize what a clock is FOR but also interpret what the clock is SAYING. Fingers crossed, y'all.

Quite possibly, the greatest DBR post of all time.

[slower]

Duke might be a better team with Plumlee seeing much playing time, and/or not contributing very much during the regular season. However, if Duke will have a real shot, I mean a real shot, and I had to pick the difference maker, it will be him. He will not simply be used to math-up against tall opposing centers to jnegate a height advantage, but he will be used to create one. Also, Duke, if it is to reach it's full potential will have to get Plumlee the ball on the move, a high-low game with someone could shoot from 17-15 feet, I believe that he will create sufficient separation from his big defender to score the ball consistently. That maybe why K is giving him as many minutes as he can during the early part of the season and will find some minutes for him during he heat of the regular season.

This is mu intuition talking from what very little I've saw of him last year. I think that he sees and has a real feel for the court, in pictures he sees and thinks, moving pictures in multi -imensions. "What have they done to my brain, Ma, what have they done to my brain."

Remember who was the key to the last championship team and who called it. The year of Marshall Plumlee, even if it is only 15-17 minutes a game.

If Marshall is the difference-maker (and don't get me wrong, I love the kid), I will eat your hat.

[Bob Green]

Thanks for a great Phase 1 post, Dave!




(4) Defensive Style & Tempo – If Duke runs as much as Coach K and the athletic roster suggest, Duke will pressure the ball and overplay the passing lanes for the purpose of speeding up opponents, forcing turnovers and scoring in transition.

My greatest anticipation for the season is seeing Duke play an uptempo, pressing style. I really enjoy watching a team get in the opponent's grill and refuse to back down.

Davidson is a tough opening game for a team with so many new pieces. It will certainly be interesting.

[Troublemaker]

Thanks for the great Phase post, superdave!

What are some goals to make this a successful Phase?

For me,

1) Duke should demonstrate that it's a good shooting team from both the 3-pt and FT lines. Something that hasn't been displayed yet.
2) Force a lot of turnovers and make more FTs than the opponents attempt. Duke's going to pickup fullcourt and be hyperaggressive on defense. But we need to do that without fouling a lot, and we need to adjust quickly to the new rules changes/emphases on handchecking and charge-drawing. On offense, we should have a plethora of slashers who can get to the line and force opponents into foul trouble.
3) Record-wise, go 7-1, splitting the Kansas and Arizona games. (If Arizona gets upset before Duke plays them, then Duke should really win the PNIT.)

[superdave]

(2) Depth & Rotation – It is usually difficult to draw many conclusions from two exhibition games, but we were down to Drury at the half. Eight players earned double-digit minutes in that game. The three who did not were Andre, Marshall and Alex. I did not see the game, so I’ll defer to others on the subject.

I do suspect Marshall will be deployed situationally this season. When we have a matchup problem with a big guy or we get into foul trouble, Marshall is likely to see his minutes go from single digits to double.

Also, with Davidson and Kansas as our first two opponents, I think you can expect Coach K to play a tighter rotation than is typical for the first of the season. That may be true once we get into the NIT games as well, with minutes more spread out at the home games versus FAU, Asheville and Vermont.


Agree on most all the points here. On the one hand, I am not convinced K will stick with the new plan to play a deeper bench, especially if it isn't working out well in the early going, specifically the games in this Phase. Old habits die hard. All too easy to dial it back to 7.5 player rotation and try to develop chemistry and consistency with the smaller group. On the other hand, there are so many good players on this team that can offer different skillsets and different looks to the defense, it gives K a lot of options that he may want to utilize. Especially game by game when maybe a different player is having an off night. He can trot out 1 or 2 other guys in that spot that maybe are having a good night so he rolls with them. In any given game it could be someone different stepping up. I do think the backbone of the team is going to be Hood, Jabari, Amile. Those guys look to be in line to get the lions share of minutes every game. I think K will look to see what other 3 to 4 guys can fit well with those 3. I love Quinn as much as the next guy, and he is the most talented PG on the team, but even there, both Rasheed, and Matt can play the point if Quinn is having an off night or something. If we have games like that, it opens up minutes for Murphy, Andre, Matt/Rasheed(whichever one isn't paying the point) to get a few more minutes on the wing.

Here is the distribution of minutes through three games:
Cook 100
Hood 97
Parker 84
Sulaimon 77
Thornton 65
Jefferson 51
Hairston 31
Jones 29
Dawkins 21
Murph 20
Plumlee 14
Ojele 11

Ideally, as has been pointed out in other threads, Jefferson can begin to stay out of foul trouble. He is going to need to play mpore than 17 minutes per game and step up his rebounding if this team is going to reach its potential.

Another question that popped up after the Kansas game is what the defensive rule changes mean for Tyler and Josh because they play a more physical style. Tyler has 11 fouls in 65 minutes of play. That is 0.169 fouls per minute. His previous fouls per minute averages are 0.125, 0.132 and 0.157. Those numbers are in order, meaning his fouls per minute dropped each season. So the fact that he is averaging significant higher fouls per minute this season than last season suggests he is suffering under the rules changes. It will be interesting to see if Coach K mentions the new rules on the record, and very interesting (and unlikely) if he mentions Tyler specifically. Tyler has been a coach on the court the last several seasons and is our captain this year. His minutes may recede some but not a ton. Assuming Tyler's minutes go down some, who will be the beneficiary? Sulaimon can add 3-4 more minutes of usage without much trouble. Dawkins and Jones may also split those up, especially if Dawkins has a hot hand.

Doing the same analysis for Josh, he is averaging 0.322 fouls per minute this year. His previous stats were 0.191, 0.158 and 0.157. So Josh's stats got worse each season as his minutes went up. But his jump is way worse than Tyler's. The fact that Josh and Amile have been whistled a lot (0.156 this year and 0.130 last year for Amile) means we need to watch out for our guards getting beat off the dribble, players catching on a slash to the basket and our bigs (Amile and Josh, specifically) rotating over poorly. If they can rotate better, they can occupy the lane a little better and not put themselves in bad positions. Also, better ball pressure up top will help a lot.

However, Josh and Tyler's stats could affect their minutes significantly. There are two ways to go here. One is to play Jabari at the 5 and Hood at the 4. We've done that in significant time each game. Another is to look down the bench and play Marshall, Alex and Semi more. It looks to me that Alex and Marshall will consistently get 3-4 minutes in the first half of each game. Ryan Kelly played that role in 2010 (6.5 minutes in 35 appearances) and Josh played that role in 2012 (8.5 minutes in 35 appearances). I think this role is characterized by one stretch of action in the first half of all but the biggest games, along with emergency minutes in those 2-3 ugly, foul trouble games we see each year, plus garbage time burn. The good news for these guys is having a clear role, even if it is limited. The bad news for the advocates of playing a deeper bench is that these guys are not in double digits for minutes. I'll be looking to see if Coach K remains true to his tendencies and plays Alex and Marshall combined about the same or less amount of time that he plays Jabari at the 5 this season. If he is going to give someone more minutes in the frontcourt, that player is going to have really show us more than we saw the first three games.

I think the backcourt rotation is going to take some more time to shake out. We now know that Andre had some back trouble and missed practice. We have seen Rasheed break out of his late summer funk. We do not know what Matt will consistently bring to the table, or if Coach K will tolerate higher fouls on Tyler or reduce his minutes. These patterns may take a while to develop. The front court rotation seems more clear.

[Kedsy]

I think the backcourt rotation is going to take some more time to shake out. We now know that Andre had some back trouble and missed practice. We have seen Rasheed break out of his late summer funk. We do not know what Matt will consistently bring to the table, or if Coach K will tolerate higher fouls on Tyler or reduce his minutes. These patterns may take a while to develop. The front court rotation seems more clear.

Basically, while you're right that Alex and Marshall have been getting a few first half minutes plus garbage time, we're playing the same 7 or 8-man rotation that most of us expected before K said he'd play a longer rotation.

The top 6 guys (Jabari, Rodney, Rasheed, Quinn, Amile, Tyler) are going to continue to get the lion's share of the minutes, barring injury or foul trouble. The first two games the fifth perimeter guy was Matt; the most recent game it was Andre. If Andre's minor injury was really the reason he didn't play the first two games, then it would seem most likely he'll grab the fifth perimeter player role and Matt will be in the same boat as Alex and Marshall. Josh is the third big and probably won't see more than 10 or so minutes a game. It's possible his problems dealing with the new rules may cause K to go to someone else (Marshall, Alex, Semi) in the 3rd big role, but especially since Josh was recently named co-captain, my guess is K sticks with him.

You bring up a good point about Tyler and fouls. If he doesn't adapt, it's possible that his minutes go down and the minutes of the fifth perimeter guy (Andre or Matt) go up. If Andre/Matt get hot in a particular game, this could also affect the relative minutes between Tyler and Andre/Matt. Ultimately, I don't expect Tyler's minutes to go down too far, though.

[CoachJ10]

With regard to our defense...I think Quin is one of the key cogs to our continued improvement on this end of the court. We need him to not only have the ball hawking defense that makes it hard to initiate the opponent's offense...but we need him to get much better at defending the pick and roll. He was exposed last year by strong guards who could get by him and make plays for our opponent by driving and dishing...or just driving.

That being said...I also think he needs to be strong with the ball on offense as well.

Personally I think as great as Jabari is and as impactful as Rodney looks...both our offense and defense start with Quin. He is the key to our growth in my opinion.

[Saratoga2]

Basically, while you're right that Alex and Marshall have been getting a few first half minutes plus garbage time, we're playing the same 7 or 8-man rotation that most of us expected before K said he'd play a longer rotation.

The top 6 guys (Jabari, Rodney, Rasheed, Quinn, Amile, Tyler) are going to continue to get the lion's share of the minutes, barring injury or foul trouble. The first two games the fifth perimeter guy was Matt; the most recent game it was Andre. If Andre's minor injury was really the reason he didn't play the first two games, then it would seem most likely he'll grab the fifth perimeter player role and Matt will be in the same boat as Alex and Marshall. Josh is the third big and probably won't see more than 10 or so minutes a game. It's possible his problems dealing with the new rules may cause K to go to someone else (Marshall, Alex, Semi) in the 3rd big role, but especially since Josh was recently named co-captain, my guess is K sticks with him.

You bring up a good point about Tyler and fouls. If he doesn't adapt, it's possible that his minutes go down and the minutes of the fifth perimeter guy (Andre or Matt) go up. If Andre/Matt get hot in a particular game, this could also affect the relative minutes between Tyler and Andre/Matt. Ultimately, I don't expect Tyler's minutes to go down too far, though.

Tyler is our backup PG during times when Quinn gets a rest or is in foul trouble. I don't think it makes sense to play Tyler up past 3 fouls or he won't be available in the event he is needed as Quinn's backup. Who would be our 3rd PG? Rasheed, Matt or Jabari?

[Kedsy]

Who would be our 3rd PG? Rasheed, Matt or Jabari?

Probably Rasheed.

[Newton_14]

Probably Rasheed.

I agree. I still maintain that if Quinn goes through any extended funk this season, K won't hesitate to move Rasheed to the point. Even with Rasheed at the point, and Andre at the two, you still have 2 other great ball handlers on the floor with Hood and Jabari which takes pressure off Andre as a ball handler.. K actually showed that line up a little bit Friday night. WIth that group, Hood basically played the 2 on offense with Andre at the 3, and Amile/Jabari in the post. That is huge in my opinion.

[DukieInBrasil]

Tyler is our backup PG during times when Quinn gets a rest or is in foul trouble. I don't think it makes sense to play Tyler up past 3 fouls or he won't be available in the event he is needed as Quinn's backup. Who would be our 3rd PG? Rasheed, Matt or Jabari?

Rasheed is the better PG regardless. Tyny Thor is kinda like a hybird PF in a G body, similar to Demarcus Nelson, but without the athleticism. TT has value for this team and is a hard-working great teammate and a good leader. I don't think he'll be the primary back-up PG for this squad. He's kinda like a jack-of-all-trades master of none kind of player.

[COYS]

Rasheed is the better PG regardless. Tyny Thor is kinda like a hybird PF in a G body, similar to Demarcus Nelson, but without the athleticism. TT has value for this team and is a hard-working great teammate and a good leader. I don't think he'll be the primary back-up PG for this squad. He's kinda like a jack-of-all-trades master of none kind of player.

Jabari has the playmaking ability to be a Lebron James or Grant Hill esque point forward. In fact, while last years team's three primary scoring options (Mason, Ryan, Seth) were largely dependent on a playmaker to get them the ball in the right spot, this year's roster is full of guys who can create for themselves and others.

While Tyler can defend the point guard spot, bring the ball up the court and get guys set, when Quinn is out, I think we'll see Jabari, Rodney, and Rasheed take an even larger role in creating offense.

We're certainly most dangerous when Quinn is on his game and directin the offense from the point guard spot, but I don't think we'll ever have to rely on Tyler to create offense even if Quinn has to sit for a long period due to foul trouble or injury.

[kAzE]

I agree. I still maintain that if Quinn goes through any extended funk this season, K won't hesitate to move Rasheed to the point. Even with Rasheed at the point, and Andre at the two, you still have 2 other great ball handlers on the floor with Hood and Jabari which takes pressure off Andre as a ball handler.. K actually showed that line up a little bit Friday night. WIth that group, Hood basically played the 2 on offense with Andre at the 3, and Amile/Jabari in the post. That is huge in my opinion.

Hm . . . I'm not implying anything, but I just wanted some more people's takes. Do you guys think Cook is in a mini-funk right now? After the Battle 4 Atlantis Final last year, I thought he was going to just take off and become the point guard that we've needed to get over the hump. He had some spectacular games last year, mostly early in the season, but then tailed off a bit later on, especially in conference play.

Obviously, Cook had a great opener, as did everyone on the roster, and I even voted him MOTM, but the last 2 games, while he's been fairly adequate, he's made some very bizzarre decisions on the court, taking some bad shots early in possessions, being extremely passive at times, and trying to make plays that aren't there. I thought after what we saw from early last year, that he would really break out this season as a junior and just start dominating, but that hasn't really materialized yet. So is he just having a couple "off" games, or is this what we can expect going forward?

Next year, when Tyus Jones is in town, I'm not even 100% sure that Cook is the starting point guard for the whole year. He probably will start, but hypothetically, if either Hood or Parker stays on an extra year, it's going to be difficult to justify starting 2 point guards when there's the possibility of a Tyus Jones/Sulaimon/Hood/Parker(or Jefferson)/Okafor starting lineup. I may be overestimating Jones, but his feel for the game is hard to question. He's clearly the more talented player when compared to Cook, but Cook will be a senior. I've always been a big fan of Cook's, but I thought he would be a more dominant player at this point. I still expect him to have a BIG game soon, and hopefully it will get him on track. We definitely need him to step it up if there's going to be talk of contending for a national title this year.

[Kedsy]

Hm . . . I'm not implying anything, but I just wanted some more people's takes. Do you guys think Cook is in a mini-funk right now? After the Battle 4 Atlantis Final last year, I thought he was going to just take off and become the point guard that we've needed to get over the hump. He had some spectacular games last year, mostly early in the season, but then tailed off a bit later on, especially in conference play.

Obviously, Cook had a great opener, as did everyone on the roster, and I even voted him MOTM, but the last 2 games, while he's been fairly adequate, he's made some very bizzarre decisions on the court, taking some bad shots early in possessions, being extremely passive at times, and trying to make plays that aren't there. I thought after what we saw from early last year, that he would really break out this season as a junior and just start dominating, but that hasn't really materialized yet. So is he just having a couple "off" games, or is this what we can expect going forward?

Next year, when Tyus Jones is in town, I'm not even 100% sure that Cook is the starting point guard for the whole year. He probably will start, but hypothetically, if either Hood or Parker stays on an extra year, it's going to be difficult to justify starting 2 point guards when there's the possibility of a Tyus Jones/Sulaimon/Hood/Parker(or Jefferson)/Okafor starting lineup. I may be overestimating Jones, but his feel for the game is hard to question. He's clearly the more talented player when compared to Cook, but Cook will be a senior. I've always been a big fan of Cook's, but I thought he would be a more dominant player at this point. I still expect him to have a BIG game soon, and hopefully it will get him on track. We definitely need him to step it up if there's going to be talk of contending for a national title this year.

Well, first of all, don't hold your breath for Jabari and Rodney to stay an extra year. Or even one of them, in all likelihood.

Second, Quinn is averaging 13.0 ppg, 6.7 apg with a 5 to 1 a/to ratio, and 3.3 rpg. Yeah, he's taken a few ill-advised shots, but did you really expect better performance than the numbers he's put up so far?

For reference 6.7 apg currently leads all ACC players and if that was his season number would have been 2nd in the ACC last year. That number would be better than either Jason Williams or Chris Duhon ever put up over the course of a season. The 5 to 1 a/to ratio would be a Duke all-time record. Not saying he will keep it up all season, but so far at least it's hard to complain about Quinn's production.

[kAzE]

Well, first of all, don't hold your breath for Jabari and Rodney to stay an extra year. Or even one of them, in all likelihood.

Second, Quinn is averaging 13.0 ppg, 6.7 apg with a 5 to 1 a/to ratio, and 3.3 rpg. Yeah, he's taken a few ill-advised shots, but did you really expect better performance than the numbers he's put up so far?

For reference 6.7 apg currently leads all ACC players and if that was his season number would have been 2nd in the ACC last year. That number would be better than either Jason Williams or Chris Duhon ever put up over the course of a season. The 5 to 1 a/to ratio would be a Duke all-time record. Not saying he will keep it up all season, but so far at least it's hard to complain about Quinn's production.

Well, his numbers are pretty good, although the Davidson game does skew the stats a little bit. He just hasn't looked great the past 2 games. Either way, it's a tiny sample size, so there's no reason to panic. Like I said, he's been fine, I just thought he'd be a real force this year (and I still think there's a good chance he will be), instead of pretty much the same guy as last year. Parker and Hood are going to be the stars of the team, and we know they will bring it every night, but I believe Cook's play is going to be the x-factor in determining if this team is a sweet 16 team or a final four team.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Well, first of all, don't hold your breath for Jabari and Rodney to stay an extra year. Or even one of them, in all likelihood.

Second, Quinn is averaging 13.0 ppg, 6.7 apg with a 5 to 1 a/to ratio, and 3.3 rpg. Yeah, he's taken a few ill-advised shots, but did you really expect better performance than the numbers he's put up so far?

For reference 6.7 apg currently leads all ACC players and if that was his season number would have been 2nd in the ACC last year. That number would be better than either Jason Williams or Chris Duhon ever put up over the course of a season. The 5 to 1 a/to ratio would be a Duke all-time record. Not saying he will keep it up all season, but so far at least it's hard to complain about Quinn's production.

If Quinn keeps this up, I absolutely don't mind one or two ill-advised shots a game!

Quinn has been an incredible player for us this year and just the kind of player that we need. Like Amile, he is an opportunist on offense: drives when there are clear open lanes, shoots when open (and once or twice when he isn't!), and always makes the excellent pass. Plus, his steady hand is, well, steady!

There is a reason that he has accumulated the most number of minutes thus far in the early season.

[COYS]

If Quinn keeps this up, I absolutely don't mind one or two ill-advised shots a game!

Quinn has been an incredible player for us this year and just the kind of player that we need. Like Amile, he is an opportunist on offense: drives when there are clear open lanes, shoots when open (and once or twice when he isn't!), and always makes the excellent pass. Plus, his steady hand is, well, steady!

There is a reason that he has accumulated the most number of minutes thus far in the early season.

Also, if Quinn is currently playing poorly, then I hope he keeps up playing this poorly the rest of the season! His poor play includes an offensive rating of 140 (http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/player/duke/quinn-cook), which is better than either Jabari or Rodney, despite both of those guys getting off to incredible starts. Also, Quinn's shot percentage is actually down from last year. He's only taking 17% of the team's shots, which is lower than last season. One or two ill-advised shots aside (and EVERYONE takes a few ill-advised shots . . . except for maybe Jon Scheyer), he's playing well, getting people involved, and shooting less than last season.

Obviously, Quinn's ludicrously high O-rating will decrease as the season goes on, but Quinn is playing very well. He needs to continue to take care of the ball, as his 5-1 assist to turnover ratio is a big part of that swollen offensive rating. I'm more interested in his defense and the team's defense as a whole. Quinn is playing well 1 on 1, but screens give him trouble and not a one of our forwards is particularly adept at hedging. The team's ceiling on offense is so high right now that it would be a shame for the team defense to prevent the team from reaching its potential.

Bottom line: Quinn may not have played perfectly so far, but he has played very well. Offense has hardly been the problem.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Also, if Quinn is currently playing poorly, then I hope he keeps up playing this poorly the rest of the season! His poor play includes an offensive rating of 140 (http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/player/duke/quinn-cook), which is better than either Jabari or Rodney, despite both of those guys getting off to incredible starts. Also, Quinn's shot percentage is actually down from last year. He's only taking 17% of the team's shots, which is lower than last season. One or two ill-advised shots aside (and EVERYONE takes a few ill-advised shots . . . except for maybe Jon Scheyer), he's playing well, getting people involved, and shooting less than last season.

Obviously, Quinn's ludicrously high O-rating will decrease as the season goes on, but Quinn is playing very well. He needs to continue to take care of the ball, as his 5-1 assist to turnover ratio is a big part of that swollen offensive rating. I'm more interested in his defense and the team's defense as a whole. Quinn is playing well 1 on 1, but screens give him trouble and not a one of our forwards is particularly adept at hedging. The team's ceiling on offense is so high right now that it would be a shame for the team defense to prevent the team from reaching its potential.

Bottom line: Quinn may not have played perfectly so far, but he has played very well. Offense has hardly been the problem.

Agreed on all fronts (except maybe the Jon Scheyer comment. While he didn't take that many shots, Jon has crazy streaky that I often shouted at the TV when he did shoot).

Defensively, he's never going to be a Nolan Smith, but I don't think he has to. He needs to stay in front of his man, and that's a lot to ask of any PG in the ACC.

Quinn is playing outstanding O, so much so that he may be the 2nd most important O player at the end of the day (don't think anyone is surpassing Mr. Parker). Keep it up Quinn, and give em hell.

[Kedsy]

Obviously, Quinn's ludicrously high O-rating will decrease as the season goes on, but Quinn is playing very well.

Here are the oRatings for all Duke (recruited scholarship) players in this young season:

Tyler: 188.4
Andre: 187.3
Quinn: 140.5
Jabari: 136.5
Rodney: 136.3
Rasheed: 127.6
Amile: 127.2
Josh: 97.3
Matt: 86.4
Semi: 80.8
Alex: 80.4
Marshall: 74.4

That's a pretty eye-popping top seven.

[Dukeface88]

Well, first of all, don't hold your breath for Jabari and Rodney to stay an extra year. Or even one of them, in all likelihood.


I've noticed quite a few posters doing this, but I don't think it's really fair to combine Jabari and Rodney when talking about who stays and who leaves. Jabari is likely a top three pick, and almost certainly gone. Rodney is more like a top thirty pick (most of the mock drafts I've seen have him going in the late 20s). It wouldn't be unheard of for him to stay based on those prospects - Kyle Singler was looking at about that range after 2010 and decided to stay, as was Mason in 2012. Obviously Rodney may not make the same decisions as Mason or Kyle, but I think his situation is at least as close to theirs as it is to Jabari's. At any rate, I wouldn't assume anything one way or the other at this point, and I think it's reasonable to entertain the possibility of Rodney's return as a hypothetical. However, even in that scenario, I don't know that Quinn would end up as the odd man out. It could easily be Rasheed as the sixth man, or even Tyus in the (fairly unlikely) event that he doesn't develop as quickly as expected. I actually think the more likely lineup would actually be to play all three guards with Hood at the 4 (which we've been doing at times this year).

Having said all that, I have few complaints about Quinn so far, and those have been more related to defense than offense. And frankly those probably aren't his fault anyway - I really don't know how guys are supposed to play defense with the way fouls have been called on the offensive end. I mean, there's been what, one charge in three games?

[Kedsy]

It wouldn't be unheard of for him to stay based on those prospects...

I agree it wouldn't be unheard of, but from what I've heard the staff expects him to probably leave. I don't have any inside info anymore, so I'm not sure if it's really true or not, but if the staff expects it then it makes sense for us to expect it as well.

[ChillinDuke]

I agree it wouldn't be unheard of, but from what I've heard the staff expects him to probably leave. I don't have any inside info anymore, so I'm not sure if it's really true or not, but if the staff expects it then it makes sense for us to expect it as well.

To further this point, it's glaringly obvious to us (the diehard Duke fans) that Rodney is arguably the best player on our team - at least actual production wise. As that view becomes clearer to those outside of our diehard circle, his stock only goes up. So I'm not surprised by a slight discrepancy between what the mock drafts are currently saying and what the coaching staff is currently saying. It takes time for everyone else to realize what the insiders already know.

- Chillin

[superdave]

I thought this Espn article by Bruce Pearl (http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/ncbexperts/post?id=783) was pretty interesting. Pearl examines Duke's defense and states that they have been hurt by defensive rule changes as much as anyone. He does not get into a whole lot of analysis, but suggests more length is better with the defensive rule focus.

Duke's traditional ball pressure and jumping the passing lanes is not working this season because of some big flaws. Duke's defense seems to fall short this year in on-ball defense, communicating and interfering with pick and rolls, and helping when pick and rolls go bad for the defense. The immediate solution is for our bigs to hedge better to allow guards to fight through screens and for guards to stay in front of their man in non pick and roll plays.

Coach K went with the zone for a possession or two against Arizona to no avail. The full court press has seemed pro forma and not produced turnovers. I would be surprised if Duke plays zone much more this year. I do like having it ready to throw a junk defense at a hot team to break their rhythm, or in the event of awful foul trouble. Otherwise, Coach K is not a zone coach. I am not really sure the full court press is going to be great for us either. I think the pressure is fairly token, unfortunately. The only way I can see improving it is to trap the recipient of the first pass. Perhaps that is a wrinkle that could be added in December.

It looks like Jefferson and Parker are going to have to show improvement in hedging on pick and rolls to give our guards more time to fight through screens. They also need to play better help side defense whe the other slides up to hedge. Parker seems to want to lay back and go for the help side block shot, but would be better served occupying some space in the lane at times. December is a great time to address these issues.

On the guard end, Quinn, Rasheed and Andre all need to simply keep their man in front of them. That has little to do with the the new rule emphasis. However, when they get beat, the rules do not favor big guys who are slow to rotate.

I am curious as to what others see as the best and most likely solution for our D over the next few weeks.