FB: Phase III - Can Duke finish strong? [Archive]

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Bob Green

11-01-2013, 06:50 PM

Duke is 6-2, 2-2 in the ACC as we head into the final four game stretch of the regular season. This phase includes home games against N.C. State and Miami, and road contests at Wake Forest and North Carolina. The obvious great news is the team being bowl eligible in October for the second consecutive season, which signifies real progress in the program rebuilding efforts. What remains to be seen is whether a good season can become a very good or even a great season.

A 2-2 finish would equate to 8-4 and .500 in the ACC, which in my opinion would be a very good season. To be a great season, Duke needs to win three more games and finish 9-3, 5-3 in the ACC. Win all four and we are looking at playing in the ACC Championship Game. That is over the top success. But let's not get ahead of ourselves as it is all about one game at a time.

Here are the questions, which the team must answer on the field:

1. Can Duke stay healthy? The default #1 question as always. The second bye week arrived with perfect timing as the big win in Blacksburg is more evidence how apt is the old saying, "You don't get something for nothing." Eight starters missed practice on Tuesday including Ross Cockrell who played sparingly in the second half due to an ankle injury. Brandon Braxton is banged up with a shoulder injury and Kelby Brown took a vicious hit on his game saving interception. Bottom line: the VT game was extremely physical. Hopefully, the team recovers fully with the bye week R&R because things aren't going to be any easier with conference games in four consecutive weeks. Teams will be fighting for their bowl eligibility lives and a victory over Duke was included in most preseason calculations so pardon my French, but it is time for the Blue Devils to piss in some people's corn flakes! We have to stay healthy in order to turn the opponents bowl eligibility dreams into nightmares.

2. Can Duke win in November? Duke is 1-19 in November under Coach Cutcliffe so history isn't on our side. Will this year be different or more of the same old song andd dance routine? Late in the season is when a lack of depth shows up to beat down a team. I'm convinced Duke has developed adequate depth, which is a very big reason why you see Duke winning the fourth quarter in games. We've outscored opponents 72-27 in the fourth quarter over the first eight games so I am convinced this season will be different. A November disappearing act isn't in the cards in 2013.

3. Can Duke continue to execute a balanced offensive attack? A quick check of the stats shows: Duke has run 571 plays from scrimmage with 312 being runs and 259 passes; 168 first downs achieved with 82 via pass, 78 via run and eight via penalty; 3,363 yards of offense with 1993 passing yards and 1370 rushing yards. This team has the ability to run the football, which keeps the defense honest. The days of opponents stopping the run with four down lineman while dedicating seven defenders to the pass are over. Balance is a key ingredient to success and Duke has demonstrated balance so far, but the team must continue to run and pass with equal success in order to win down the stretch. Future opponents have scouted us and are aware we are more than a pass happy offense so they will be better prepared to stop our running game. When we can't run it becomes much harder to pass. It is up to the coaching staff and the team to develop and execute game plans, which achieve balance in order to keep the opponent's defense guessing.

4. Can our quarterbacks cut back on interceptions during the stretch run? Yeah, I know I'm nitpicking a bit as the numbers are skewed by two bad individual games as Connette threw four interceptions against Pitt and Boone threw four against Virginia Tech (and we still won the game), but the bottom line is we've thrown 12 interceptions compared to intercepting our opponent nine times for a negative three in the turnover via interception category. We cannot afford to give the opponent extra opportunities so cutting back on interceptions has to be a Phase III objective. I've been extremely pleased with the offense all season, but it is a fact we've thrown too many interceptions.

5. Can the defense continue to dominate opponents in the second half? Virginia Tech -10 points; Virgina - 0 points; Navy - 0 points; Troy - 10 points. The defense has really stepped up and performed in the second half over the past four ball games evidenced by allowing our opponents an average of five points per second half. The deeper into the clock games have progressed, the better we've become at pressuring the quarterback and coming up with key stops and turnovers. This is a trend definitely worth continuing!

6. Can we continue to outperform our opponent on Special Teams? How big were Ross Martin's 51 and 53 yard field goals last week in Blacksburg? That's a rhetorical question, sports fans. We all know they were huge. Against Virginia, Martin is 2-2, while Virginia's kicker misses his only attempt. Martin is also booming the ball on kick-offs. So Will Monday is struggling punting the ball, right? Wrong! Duke has returned 20 punts for 304 yards including two Jamison Crowder touchdowns, while our opponents have returned 10 punts for 32 yards. That's a lot of field position gained via the kicking game. Monday is punting the ball down the sideline and it seems a lot of his punts have went out of bounds sooner than they should have, so I'll concede there is still room for improvement but overall Duke is winning the kicking game.

Well that is my take on where we stand and what to look for over the next four games. I'm really interested in everyone's take on my comments and, more importantly, the State of the Team, so I encourage everyone to pipe in with their two cents or if your willing give us a whole nickles worth of wisdom.

Let's talk some Duke Football!

gep

11-02-2013, 12:22 AM

5. Can the defense continue to dominate opponents in the second half? Virginia Tech -10 points; Virgina - 0 points; Navy - 0 points; Troy - 10 points. The defense has really stepped up and performed in the second half over the past four ball games evidenced by allowing our opponents an average of five points per second half. The deeper into the clock games have progressed, the better we've become at pressuring the quarterback and coming up with key stops and turnovers. This is a trend definitely worth continuing!

Yes... second half defensive domination trend hopefully WILL continue. But, unlike the Navy and VTech games where Duke never trailed, I don't much care for games like the Virginia game where the offense had to come from WAY back...:cool:

Bob Green

11-03-2013, 05:08 AM

The "Health" category applies equally to our future opponents. Wake Forest wide receiver Michael Campanaro will be out 4 to 6 weeks with a broken collarbone and Miami running back Duke Johnson is out for the season with a broken ankle:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/9918800/wake-forest-demon-deacons-star-wr-michael-campanaro-4-6-weeks

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/9920980/miami-hurricanes-duke-johnson-cast-hurting-ankle

devildeac

11-03-2013, 06:23 AM

Dev11

11-03-2013, 08:28 AM

wilson

11-03-2013, 08:36 AM

I'll be interested to see how much (if any) the Duke Johnson injury moves the spread for our Miami game. That's a huge blow to their offense, and could be another boost for a Duke defense that's really been coming on strong of late.
I admittedly know essentially nothing about Miami's roster depth. Duke-NC State and Miami-VA Tech will perhaps clear up the prognosis a bit.

airowe

11-03-2013, 08:52 AM

Here are the questions, which the team must answer on the field:

1. Can Duke stay healthy? Kelby and Ross are clearly the two biggest question marks heading into this week's practice after taking big hits in the Virginia Tech game. Neither was available for interviews after Tuesday's practice, but Ross did tell people at Cut's radio show that he would be fine. The bye week came at a very advantageous time there. I wonder if Duke will get healthy, particularly with backup QB Thomas Sirk. It was anticipated that he would return sometime in October prior to the season but I know he suffered a setback in his recovery. If he comes back as the second string QB behind Boone, would that allow Duke to put Connette on the field more often than he is now? Having another weapon in the offense would at the very least make defensive coordinators stretch out their gamepla

2. Can Duke win in November? I think the 1-19 record in November under Cutcliffe is somewhat overblown. Last year Duke played Clemson and Miami at home and Georgia Tech in Atlanta (and would've won that game in Atlanta if not for a crazy tipped ball caught by a lineman). The year before they played at Miami, at Virginia, lost by 7 to Georgia Tech and at UNC. In 2010, they lost to BC and UNC at home by 5 points each, beat UVA at home and lost to Georgia Tech in Atlanta. In 2009, they lost to both Georgia Tech, Miami and UNC again in addition to Wake Forest. Every one of the last four years, they've played the Yellow Jackets in November and three of the four they've played Miami. I think Duke should be favored in three of their last four games in the month of November. As an aside, if the Blue Devils can win out and Georgia Tech loses in two weeks at Clemson, Duke will be the ACC Coastal Champions.

3. Can Duke continue to execute a balanced offensive attack? An improved defense helps out with his balance a lot, as has having running quarterbacks like Anthony Boone and Brandon Connette. Those two combined have accounted for 33.6% of the rushing attempts by Duke this year compared to 15.2% of attempts last year.

4. Can our quarterbacks cut back on interceptions during the stretch run? I agree this is a concern, especially for Boone. However, Virginia Tech is tied for second in the country in interceptions so it's possible that game was an anomaly. Of Duke's remaining opponents, Miami is tied for 10th, UNC tied for 30th with Wake Forest and NC State is 48th. They're all ahead of Duke.

5. Can the defense continue to dominate opponents in the second half? The defense shutout Virginia Tech in the first half last week too. Seems like they're improving overall.

6. Can we continue to outperform our opponent on Special Teams? Martin's play at Virginia Tech was huge, even if he hasn't had the greatest of seasons. Monday is a Ray Guy Award Candidate, and is 34th in the country in yards per punt average. Ideally, his punts per game average of 4.9 will decrease as the year goes on...

Wander

11-03-2013, 09:07 AM

I think the 1-19 record in November under Cutcliffe is somewhat overblown. Last year Duke played Clemson and Miami at home and Georgia Tech in Atlanta (and would've won that game in Atlanta if not for a crazy tipped ball caught by a lineman). The year before they played at Miami, at Virginia, lost by 7 to Georgia Tech and at UNC. In 2010, they lost to BC and UNC at home by 5 points each, beat UVA at home and lost to Georgia Tech in Atlanta. In 2009, they lost to both Georgia Tech, Miami and UNC again in addition to Wake Forest. Every one of the last four years, they've played the Yellow Jackets in November and three of the four they've played Miami. I think Duke should be favored in three of their last four games in the month of November. As an aside, if the Blue Devils can win out and Georgia Tech loses in two weeks at Clemson, Duke will be the ACC Coastal Champions.

Agreed. It's more a product of the schedule than anything else. If you reversed the schedule the past few years and had the exact same results in each game, everyone would be talking about how much better Duke gets at the end of the season.

The schedule is much different this year - not least of all because we dodge FSU and Clemson. I can't believe I'm about to say this, but at this point, it would be a pretty big disappointment if Duke doesn't finish the season with 8 wins.

Dukehky

11-03-2013, 11:58 AM

Those guys are both major contributors for their respective offenses.

Good phase post. I can't wait to see Duke back on the field with the confidence of a team that knows it can win.

The Dallas Crawford kid is no slouch. He's not Duke Johnson, but he torched Carolina.

Let's focus on State, get to 7-2 then move on.

budwom

11-03-2013, 12:06 PM

OldPhiKap

11-03-2013, 12:34 PM

All in all, opportunity knocks.

I do not think you could say it any better. This is what all the hard work and preparation is for: to be in this exact position. I will be very interested to see if the culture of winning -- and expecting to win -- has really set in. One thing's for certain -- we have the Coach and staff that knows how to close.

Bob Green

11-03-2013, 12:54 PM

Duke has opened as a 10 points favorite over NC State:

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/

When was the last time Duke was a double digit favorite in an ACC Football game? I have no idea.

duke09hms

11-03-2013, 01:19 PM

A unique November for us as we could realistically win or lose all four games, with beating Miami being something of a stretch I would think, even
with the loss of Johnson.

State is reeling (though still good enough to beat us), Wake took a monstrous blow with the loss of Campanero, and the heels should be
something of a tossup.

All in all, opportunity knocks.

Agreed, we need to come in focused and not expecting some teams to just up and lose to us. NC State is reeling but was good enough to upset FSU last year, and Wake is always well-coached and disciplined. Gonna be a huge 4 weeks coming up. I'm praying we can make it through this stretch healthy.

Newton_14

11-03-2013, 09:19 PM

Great Phase post Bob, and good input from Adam and others. I am trying really hard to have confidence in these final 4 games, but do worry. I am confident about the State game and will be super disappointed if we do not beat them. Wake has proven to be a thorn in our side for 10 years, but with their main playmaker out, it does up our chances there. We definitely need to win those two games and get to 8 wins. Miami will be an uphill climb even given their injury situation, and the fact we have played them really well since Cut arrived. We can beat them, but it will take Duke playing mistake free football at a very high level, and the defense stepping up big time.

That leaves the UNC game. They are not well coached, but have a ton of athlete's as usual, and they can give us problems. Their defense is still really bad, especially if you spread your offense and force them to make open field tackles in one on one situations. I think our spread offense can exploit their weaknesses. Last season we ran the ball down their throats much of the game, and with our running game even better this year, I see no reason why we can't do it again. So it comes down to:Can our defense contain them and stay off the field enough to allow our offense to put the hurt on UNC's horrible defense?

I see it as a toss up, and expect us to be a 5 to 7 dog going in.

I will be satisfied with 2 and 2, thrilled with 3 and 1, and on Cloud 9 if we pull off 4 and 0 to win the Coastal and go the ACC Title game. Even getting killed there by FSU would not dampen a 10-2 Regular Season, Coastal Champs.

It is there for the taking if we can get the right answers to all the key points Mr Green made in the OP.

loran16

11-04-2013, 10:47 AM

2. Can Duke win in November?

Yes. This record is overblown due to usually backloaded schedules, but our schedule was frontloaded this year.

3. Can Duke continue to execute a balanced offensive attack?

Definitely yes - Although I hope the team re-commits to its RBs after using them very little the last two weeks.

4. Can our quarterbacks cut back on interceptions during the stretch run?

Yes - There are no top 50 Defenses left in our way - and of our remaining opponents, only Miami averages a decent # of picks. And Boone will get more comfortable as we go on. Oh and two of these games are at home.

5. Can the defense continue to dominate opponents in the second half?

I'm gonna say NO here. Kind of. See, While it's probably true that our D performance after halftime has been due in part to adjustments, a lot of it also has stemmed from stupid adjustments made by other teams (see the VaTech blog TheKeyPlay for an example of this). Duke's D against UVA and Navy in the first half wasn't good - nor against Pitt in Phase 1 for example, and I don't think you go from that bad to this good simply after halftime. It's more likely fluky than anything.

The real question is whether the D can be consistently solid overall - I wouldn't expect the teams' 2nd half D to be as good going forward, but I would expect the teams' first half D to improve. That's where they need to get better.

6. Can we continue to outperform our opponent on Special Teams?

Yes.

arnie

11-04-2013, 12:00 PM

2. Can Duke win in November?

Yes. This record is overblown due to usually backloaded schedules, but our schedule was frontloaded this year.

Yes.

Actually our schedule was not loaded at all this year. I will be content with 7 regular season wins as it gives us a winning season. Really hope to win the bowl - first time on 50+ years.

Devil in the Blue Dress

11-04-2013, 12:37 PM

Every remaining win (season and post season) will be history making for this program.;)

Duvall

11-05-2013, 12:40 PM

A unique November for us as we could realistically win or lose all four games, with beating Miami being something of a stretch I would think, even
with the loss of Johnson.

State is reeling (though still good enough to beat us), Wake took a monstrous blow with the loss of Campanero, and the heels should be
something of a tossup.

All in all, opportunity knocks.

Add UNC quarterback Bryn Renner to the list of Saturday's season-ending injuries. (http://northcarolina.scout.com/2/1343252.html)

Shoulder injury.

wilson

11-05-2013, 12:49 PM

Add UNC quarterback Bryn Renner to the list of Saturday's season-ending injuries. (http://northcarolina.scout.com/2/1343252.html)

Shoulder injury.Wow. I know we've still gotta play the games, and I want to avoid reveling in injury to any player (even a heel), but the door really is wide open for a 9+ win season. That would match the school record for wins in a season, done only twice before and last matched in 1941(!).

OldPhiKap

11-05-2013, 12:57 PM

Add UNC quarterback Bryn Renner to the list of Saturday's season-ending injuries. (http://northcarolina.scout.com/2/1343252.html)

Shoulder injury.

Very sorry to see any kid hurt.

While Carolina's offense was pretty mediocre to begin with, at least they had the QB tandem that could try to keep defenses off guard. This is a big loss. Isn't he "the passing quarterback" of the two? (Such as it was).

Duvall

11-05-2013, 01:16 PM

Very sorry to see any kid hurt.

While Carolina's offense was pretty mediocre to begin with, at least they had the QB tandem that could try to keep defenses off guard. This is a big loss. Isn't he "the passing quarterback" of the two? (Such as it was).

Yes. That said, backup Marquise Williams has passed well this year.

loran16

12-01-2013, 04:49 PM

TIME TO REVIVE THIS THREAD!

Can Duke Finish strong? YES!

1. Can Duke stay healthy?.

Holy Cow, the answer to this has been the biggest yes I've ever seen. Even if we include Duke's other sports, it's hard to compare how healthy Duke was after the NC State game - the injury lists were ridiculously small.

Hopefully this can continue for FSU and the Bowl game.

2. Can Duke win in November?

Yes. Next: December!

3. Can Duke continue to execute a balanced offensive attack?

Yep. The four games in this phase:
NC State: 198 yards passing, 123 yards rushing
Miami: 185 yards passing, 358 yards rushing.
Wake: 257 Yards passing, 121 yards rushing
unc-Cheaters: 274 yards passing, 187 yards rushing

Running game was honestly weak against State, but was strong the remaining 3 games (although Wake stifled it somewhat). The passing game meanwhile came alive in the last two games.

4. Can our quarterbacks cut back on interceptions during the stretch run? .

Yep. 3 picks vs State was a bad start, but none in the final 3 games for either QB. That said, Boone threw two dangerous passes that UNC CBs dropped and that won't work against FSU.

5. Can the defense continue to dominate opponents in the second half? Virginia Tech -10 points; Virgina - 0 points; Navy - 0 points; Troy - 10 points. The defense has really stepped up and performed in the second half over the past four ball games evidenced by allowing our opponents an average of five points per second half. The deeper into the clock games have progressed, the better we've become at pressuring the quarterback and coming up with key stops and turnovers. This is a trend definitely worth continuing!

State: 20 points, 7 in the 4th quarter
Miami: 10, 0 in the 4th quarter
Wake: 7, 0 in the 4th quarter.
UNC: 10, 3 in the 4th quarter.

So, hell yes.

6. Can we continue to outperform our opponent on Special Teams? How big were Ross Martin's 51 and 53 yard field goals last week in Blacksburg? That's a rhetorical question, sports fans. We all know they were huge. Against Virginia, Martin is 2-2, while Virginia's kicker misses his only attempt. Martin is also booming the ball on kick-offs. So Will Monday is struggling punting the ball, right? Wrong! Duke has returned 20 punts for 304 yards including two Jamison Crowder touchdowns, while our opponents have returned 10 punts for 32 yards. That's a lot of field position gained via the kicking game. Monday is punting the ball down the sideline and it seems a lot of his punts have went out of bounds sooner than they should have, so I'll concede there is still room for improvement but overall Duke is winning the kicking game.

Yes and No. Duke allowed two returns for TDs in the 4 games. On the other hand, DeVon Edwards debuted as a starter and had two huge returns. Ross Martin was certainly satisfactory, although Will Monday has had some issues still. Overall this is a win.

And overall this is a huge win, and I hope we have some more questions for the next two phases.