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Wander
10-28-2013, 02:37 PM
I did this last year, and with no Duke game this weekend and half the conference season over with Duke still in the race for the coastal division, we should have some fun keeping on eye on this again. The basic idea is to figure out who to root for in each week's games, since we don't control our own destiny right now.

Obviously, the most important thing Duke needs to do is to keep winning games. But we have a bye week coming up, so moving on, here are the upcoming division games, in order of importance:

1. Miami at FSU - Miami doesn't have a conference loss yet, so we really need them to pick one up. Obviously, a road game at the best ACC team is the best opportunity for this to happen. Pretty simple, and FSU is favored. If Miami does beat FSU, they'll still be a game ahead, but we'll have the opportunity to give Miami their second conference loss in a few weeks ourselves.

2. Pitt at Georgia Tech - throaty bemoaned our losses to these teams in the other thread, pointing out that it's making the division race too crowded for us. He's right, but the good news is one of them will pick up their third loss on Saturday. I am split on who to root for here - the goal is that we want BOTH teams to pick up another loss. If Georgia Tech wins, they only have one more ACC game to pick up their third loss - but it's a road game against Clemson. If Pitt wins, they still have three more opportunities to pick up another loss - but they have an easier schedule. So while this game is very important for us, there's not an obvious rooting interest.

3. Virginia Tech at Boston College - another game that's significant but without a clear rooting interest. We need VT to lose another game, but it'd be nice if they didn't lose TOO many more games, as Duke's victory against VT is a valuable thing to have in our pocket in case any of the complicated tiebreakers need to be invoked. And VT plays at Miami the week after. I guess the ideal is for VT to lose to BC and then beat Miami, but the more realistic-and-still-good scenario is beating BC and losing to Miami. VT losing both games isn't awful, but winning both would be pretty bad for us.

4. UNC at NC State - 90% irrelevant. Most of the scenarios that have UNC ahead of or tied with Duke at the end of the season already imply that we're out of the race anyway. But not ALL of them, so root for NC State, in addition to all the other reasons you want UNC to lose anyway.

5. Clemson at Virgina - 99.99% irrelevant, since Virginia is close to mathematically eliminated, and we all know that UVA isn't capable of winning out anyway. But the .01% implies rooting for Clemson, for whatever it's worth.

So that's it... root for FSU, NC State, and Clemson, while keeping an eye on the other two games for their implications for the following weeks.

Reilly
10-28-2013, 03:19 PM
Miami 3-0 (@fsu, vt, @duke, uva, @pitt)
VT 3-1 (@bc, @miami, maryland, @uva)
GT 4-2 (pitt, @clemson)
Pitt 2-2 (@gt, unc, @syracuse, miami)
Duke 2-2 (ncsu, miami, @wfu, @unc)
UNC 1-3 (@state, uva, @pitt, duke)
UVa 0-4 (clemson, @unc, @miami, vt)

loran16
10-28-2013, 03:20 PM
I did this last year, and with no Duke game this weekend and half the conference season over with Duke still in the race for the coastal division, we should have some fun keeping on eye on this again. The basic idea is to figure out who to root for in each week's games, since we don't control our own destiny right now.

Obviously, the most important thing Duke needs to do is to keep winning games. But we have a bye week coming up, so moving on, here are the upcoming division games, in order of importance:

1. Miami at FSU - Miami doesn't have a conference loss yet, so we really need them to pick one up. Obviously, a road game at the best ACC team is the best opportunity for this to happen. Pretty simple, and FSU is favored. If Miami does beat FSU, they'll still be a game ahead, but we'll have the opportunity to give Miami their second conference loss in a few weeks ourselves.

2. Pitt at Georgia Tech - throaty bemoaned our losses to these teams in the other thread, pointing out that it's making the division race too crowded for us. He's right, but the good news is one of them will pick up their third loss on Saturday. I am split on who to root for here - the goal is that we want BOTH teams to pick up another loss. If Georgia Tech wins, they only have one more ACC game to pick up their third loss - but it's a road game against Clemson. If Pitt wins, they still have three more opportunities to pick up another loss - but they have an easier schedule. So while this game is very important for us, there's not an obvious rooting interest.

3. Virginia Tech at Boston College - another game that's significant but without a clear rooting interest. We need VT to lose another game, but it'd be nice if they didn't lose TOO many more games, as Duke's victory against VT is a valuable thing to have in our pocket in case any of the complicated tiebreakers need to be invoked. And VT plays at Miami the week after. I guess the ideal is for VT to lose to BC and then beat Miami, but the more realistic-and-still-good scenario is beating BC and losing to Miami. VT losing both games isn't awful, but winning both would be pretty bad for us.

4. UNC at NC State - 90% irrelevant. Most of the scenarios that have UNC ahead of or tied with Duke at the end of the season already imply that we're out of the race anyway. But not ALL of them, so root for NC State, in addition to all the other reasons you want UNC to lose anyway.

5. Clemson at Virgina - 99.99% irrelevant, since Virginia is close to mathematically eliminated, and we all know that UVA isn't capable of winning out anyway. But the .01% implies rooting for Clemson, for whatever it's worth.

So that's it... root for FSU, NC State, and Clemson, while keeping an eye on the other two games for their implications for the following weeks.

In practice, Duke winning out should make it since the odds are good you see:
Miami loss at Tallahassee
Miami Victory over VaTech at home
And then both Pitt and GT lose since the winner of that game is almost certain not to win out.

Incidentally, you should probably root for Pitt. If GT loses this game, GT needs a win over Clemson or Georgia to even be bowl eligible, which seems unlikely. Pitt also has Miami on the schedule left, so it's not going undefeated.

Olympic Fan
10-28-2013, 03:43 PM
Not a bad idea to list this, but I'm still 99.9 percent sure than Duke will win the division title if the Devils win out and 100 percent sure we will not have a chance if we lose another game.

Good point about Georgia Tech -- the Jackets are 5-3 overall, but since they play two FBS teams (Elon and Alabama A&M) they can only use one of those two wins to get to six. That means their sixth win either has to come from Pitt this week, at Clemson or Georgia at home ... if I were a Tech fan, I'd be praying for a win this week.

On the other hand, Pitt is not a lock to get to six wins if the Panthers lose this week.

A loss to Georgia Tech would leave them at 4-4 with a game with Notre Dame coming up. They also finish the season against Miami. In between they have games against UNC and at Syracuse that they can win, but if they lose this week, they probably need to win both to get bowl eligible ... last week's loss to Navy really hurt them.

The bowl issue also applies to the State-UNC game. Neither will officially be eliminated with a loss, but I'd be willing to bet that the loser is going to miss a bowl.

gls6
10-28-2013, 03:54 PM
I think we'd want to root for UVA over Clemson since it would help our strength of schedule. I don't think UVA losing would help us at all in our quest for the championship since they are already 0-4 in the conference. Also, consider the following scenario: Duke makes it to the ACC Championship and loses to an undefeated Florida State team that goes to the BCS national championship game. We could get an invitation to the Orange Bowl if we were the top-ranked remaining ACC school in the BCS, and a Clemson loss this week would help us in that scenario.

bbosbbos
10-28-2013, 03:57 PM
I love this but chance is low.


I think we'd want to root for UVA over Clemson since it would help our strength of schedule. I don't think UVA losing would help us at all in our quest for the championship since they are already 0-4 in the conference. Also, consider the following scenario: Duke makes it to the ACC Championship and loses to an undefeated Florida State team that goes to the BCS national championship game. We could get an invitation to the Orange Bowl if we were the top-ranked remaining ACC school in the BCS, and a Clemson loss this week would help us in that scenario.

Wander
10-28-2013, 03:58 PM
Not a bad idea to list this, but I'm still 99.9 percent sure than Duke will win the division title if the Devils win out and 100 percent sure we will not have a chance if we lose another game.


I agree that these two scenarios are likely, but I think the chances are way less than 99.9% and 100%. For example, if Virginia Tech - who dodges FSU and Clemson on the schedule - wins out, it doesn't matter what we do. Sure, they won't be favored in a road game against Miami, but if Wake and Carolina can take Miami to the final minute, VT is certainly capable as well.

Like I said, it's likely we win the division if we win out, but we don't control our own destiny right now, and I'd like to not have to rely on Miami or Clemson or Pitt winning games for us as soon as possible.

throatybeard
10-28-2013, 04:56 PM
2. Pitt at Georgia Tech - throaty bemoaned our losses to these teams in the other thread, pointing out that it's making the division race too crowded for us. He's right, but the good news is one of them will pick up their third loss on Saturday.

Wow, I thought that not even throaty listened to what throaty says.


But not ALL of them, so root for NC State, in addition to all the other reasons you want UNC to lose anyway.

I am remarkably prepared to do this, not least because of the NCSU sheepskin on the wall.

BigWayne
10-28-2013, 04:57 PM
Amazingly, there are people not on this board that are considering this topic.

http://espn.go.com/ncf/notebook/_/page/onthemark-131028/conference-races-hit-home-stretch

ForkFondler
10-28-2013, 06:39 PM
Massey Ratings (http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2265&s=199231) give Duke a 9% chance of winning out.
.

As far as winning Coastal goes, Miami is the clear favorite, with a 2% chance of going 8-0, a 29% chance of beating everyone besides FSU, plus a 42% chance of beating both Duke and VPI, in which case they can lose to either Pitt or UVa and still get the tiebreaker. Next is VPI, which has a 16% of running the table which would give them a 7-1 record and tiebreaker against Miami. The remaining 11% largely involves a 6-2 team winning on a tiebreaker. GT has a 19% chance of getting to 6-2, while Duke is at 9%. GT is in poor shape on tiebreakers though. Miami will probably have to have three losses plus Duke would have to win out for them to get the bid. With the loss to FSU, Miami would probably have the best division record, so (I think) they go with three or more 6-2 teams. In conclusion, the Coastal division Massey odds are approximately:

Miami 76%
VPI 18%
Duke 5%
GT 1%

ForkFondler
10-28-2013, 07:12 PM
In practice, Duke winning out should make it since the odds are good you see:
Miami loss at Tallahassee
Miami Victory over VaTech at home
And then both Pitt and GT lose since the winner of that game is almost certain not to win out.

Incidentally, you should probably root for Pitt. If GT loses this game, GT needs a win over Clemson or Georgia to even be bowl eligible, which seems unlikely. Pitt also has Miami on the schedule left, so it's not going undefeated.

Besides winning out, we need GT to lose to Pitt (they won't) or Clemson. Otherwise, Duke probably will probably be on the short end of a tiebreaker.

killerleft
10-28-2013, 07:32 PM
Besides winning out, we need GT to lose to Pitt (they won't) or Clemson. Otherwise, Duke probably will probably be on the short end of a tiebreaker.

If Duke wins out, how could the stars not align perfectly and allow us a shot at the ACC Title? You're talking crazy here:p.

Duvall
10-28-2013, 07:34 PM
Besides winning out, we need GT to lose to Pitt (they won't) or Clemson. Otherwise, Duke probably will probably be on the short end of a tiebreaker.

Yeah, Duke doesn't win a two-team tie or a three team tie with GT. Duke would probably be at a disadvantage in a three or more team tiebreaker because they would have two division losses, while Miami would probably have only one.

Olympic Fan
10-29-2013, 03:08 PM
Yeah, Duke doesn't win a two-team tie or a three team tie with GT. Duke would probably be at a disadvantage in a three or more team tiebreaker because they would have two division losses, while Miami would probably have only one.

Unless the three-way tie was Duke, Va Tech and Miami. Then Duke wins because of a 2-0 head-to-head.

Duke also wins two-way tiebreakers with Miami and VPI.

Georgia Tech is the fly in the ointment. If they are in the mix, then we are in trouble.

I'm counting on Clemson to give them a third ACC loss. Pitt is not problem ... they are going to lose at least a couple of more ACC games.

Actually, when I look at it, I'm counting a lot on Miami. For Duke to be division champ, the 'Canes need to (1) lose at FSU this weekend; (2) hand VPI their second loss; (3) lose to Duke in Durham; (4) beat Pitt in Miami (although I don't think this one is necessary).

If that happens, the only other thing that needs to happen is for Clemson to beat Georgia Tech.

And, of course, for Duke to beat NC State, Wake and FSU.

It's a longshot, but I don't see any miracle outcomes there -- the only upset in my scenario is Duke over Miami.

Wander
11-03-2013, 09:01 AM
Okay, so NOW it's almost true that Duke makes it if we win out, and that we don't make it if we lose another game. The "almost" comes from Georgia Tech. They MUST lose their road game at Clemson in a week and a half (Thursday night game). We cannot win a tie with Georgia Tech. We can't even win a 3 or 4 team tie with Georgia Tech - the next tiebreaker after head-to-head matchups is division record, and our two conference losses are in the division. A three-way tie with Duke, GT, and Miami/VT would go to Miami/VT.

Meanwhile, FSU only needs to beat either Wake Forest or Syracuse to make it on the other side. So almost official.

So, aside from Clemson over GT, just win out! Worth noting that two of our remaining opponents, Wake and Miami, lost their best player to injury.

davekay1971
11-03-2013, 09:15 AM
Okay, so NOW it's almost true that Duke makes it if we win out, and that we don't make it if we lose another game. The "almost" comes from Georgia Tech. They MUST lose their road game at Clemson in a week and a half (Thursday night game).

So, aside from Clemson over GT, just win out! Worth noting that two of our remaining opponents, Wake and Miami, lost their best player to injury.

Clemson has been playing really well since halftime of the Maryland game last week. Looks to me like they took a half to shrug off the FSU beat down they received, and they've been taking that loss out on their opponents ever since. I'd be surprised to see GT win in Death Valley.

Not often we see injury breaks go Duke's way, and I always hate to see players get injuries, but Duke was helped yesterday by Campanero's and Duke Johnson's injuries. Those players really change their respective teams' offense. Campanero is the one real playmaker Wake has. They have other good players, but no one else that really scares you. As for Miami, they won their WFU and UNC games when they put the ball in Johnson's hands and let him literally carry the offense. Morris won't scare you...and I'm not sure if Miami has another running back who can do what Johnson does when the game is on the line.

devildeac
11-03-2013, 09:45 AM
Clemson has been playing really well since halftime of the Maryland game last week. Looks to me like they took a half to shrug off the FSU beat down they received, and they've been taking that loss out on their opponents ever since. I'd be surprised to see GT win in Death Valley.

Not often we see injury breaks go Duke's way, and I always hate to see players get injuries, but Duke was helped yesterday by Campanero's and Duke Johnson's injuries. Those players really change their respective teams' offense. Campanero is the one real playmaker Wake has. They have other good players, but no one else that really scares you. As for Miami, they won their WFU and UNC games when they put the ball in Johnson's hands and let him literally carry the offense. Morris won't scare you...and I'm not sure if Miami has another running back who can do what Johnson does when the game is on the line.

I don't know whether they are equal or not but think about if Duke lost Vernon last year and the cheaters lost Bernard. Very good points though. Here are some 2013 rushing stats:

1 Andre Williams, RB BC 216 1176 5.4 62 10
2 Duke Johnson, RB MIA 145 920 6.3 59 6
3 Kevin Parks, RB UVA 160 696 4.4 61 9
4 Roderick McDowell, RB CLEM 131 677 5.2 45 3
5 Devonta Freeman, RB FSU 110 639 5.8 60 8
6 David Sims, RB GT 114 610 5.4 36 9
7 Jerome Smith, RB SYR 116 587 5.1 66 8
8 Isaac Bennett, RB PITT 105 543 5.2 31 5
9 Robert Godhigh, RB GT 42 473 11.3 65 3
10 Brandon Ross, RB MD 91 458 5.0 36 4

And some receiving figures:

1 Sammy Watkins, WR CLEM 66 982 14.9 96 7
2 Michael Campanaro, WR WAKE 67 803 12.0 66 6
3 Rashad Greene, WR FSU 45 773 17.2 72 8
4 Jamison Crowder, WR DUKE 60 769 12.8 62 3
5 Devin Street, WR PITT 40 690 17.3 67 4
6 Eric Ebron, TE UNC 44 669 15.2 71 3
7 Tyler Boyd, WR PITT 45 644 14.3 69 6
8 Alex Amidon, WR BC 49 638 13.0 69 3
9 Kenny Shaw, WR FSU 34 618 18.2 55 3
10 Allen Hurns, WR MIA 33 590 17.9 80 4

Those are huge losses for Miami and WFU.

Wander
11-03-2013, 10:07 AM
I'm not sure if Miami has another running back who can do what Johnson does when the game is on the line.

Trivia question... what player has rushed for multiple touchdowns in 4 straight games, which is the longest streak in Division 1A this season (OK, I'm not sure if it's still the longest streak, but it was a week ago)? The answer is Miami's BACKUP runningback. Not as good as Duke Johnson, but it's still Miami's strength, I think.

davekay1971
11-03-2013, 10:48 AM
Trivia question... what player has rushed for multiple touchdowns in 4 straight games, which is the longest streak in Division 1A this season (OK, I'm not sure if it's still the longest streak, but it was a week ago)? The answer is Miami's BACKUP runningback. Not as good as Duke Johnson, but it's still Miami's strength, I think.

Good point, and it takes a lot more than the running back to make a good running game (okay, unless that running back is Barry Sanders or AP). Miami's got a good offensive line that does a nice job opening holes for Johnson, and his backups will undoubtedly be able to maintain a good running game in his absence.

Ultimately the Duke-Miami game will hinge on whether or not Duke can contain Miami's running game. Miami's passing game is less fearful. Obviously Duke will need to avoid allowing the big play, which historically has been a problem. But, if we can do that, then it's a matter of containing that running game so we can put Miami in 2nd/3rd and long, and get off the field in 3rd and short situations. Duke's offense can score on Miami. Our defense, when has been stellar the last 6 quarters of play, will need to make it hard for Miami to keep up.

But, of course, we have a wounded Pack-o-Wolves to deal with first...

BigWayne
11-04-2013, 11:01 AM
Trivia question... what player has rushed for multiple touchdowns in 4 straight games, which is the longest streak in Division 1A this season (OK, I'm not sure if it's still the longest streak, but it was a week ago)? The answer is Miami's BACKUP runningback. Not as good as Duke Johnson, but it's still Miami's strength, I think.

Dallas Crawford came in to the Miami-UNC game when Johnson went out with a concussion/migraine and did just fine. He is not at the same level as Johnson, with a rushing average about 2/3 of Johnson, but Miami will still have a strong ground game.

Wander
11-10-2013, 01:09 AM
The division race is in a weird place in that no teams control their own destiny. Duke, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, and Miami are the contenders, and they all have scenarios where they win out but don't win the division. However, that would change with Clemson beating Georgia Tech on Thursday night - if that happens (which is of course the favored outcome, but I wouldn't guarantee it), then Duke will be the only team to control its fate. Still a long road ahead for us, but sort of cool that Duke can be the leader in our division in mid-November.

Meanwhile, FSU officially clinched the other division. So Georgia Tech at Clemson on Thursday is the only non-Duke game that matters for the remainder of the season, with respect to our quest for the ACC championship.

arnie
11-10-2013, 07:48 AM
The division race is in a weird place in that no teams control their own destiny. Duke, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, and Miami are the contenders, and they all have scenarios where they win out but don't win the division. However, that would change with Clemson beating Georgia Tech on Thursday night - if that happens (which is of course the favored outcome, but I wouldn't guarantee it), then Duke will be the only team to control its fate. Still a long road ahead for us, but sort of cool that Duke can be the leader in our division in mid-November.

Meanwhile, FSU officially clinched the other division. So Georgia Tech at Clemson on Thursday is the only non-Duke game that matters for the remainder of the season, with respect to our quest for the ACC championship.

5-way tie for 1st in Coastal still possible with Pitt-UNC winner in. Duke beats Miami, but loses to Heels. VPI would have to lose another game which might not happen except they've shown screw-up tendencies. The tie-breaker would be fascinating.

arnie
11-10-2013, 07:55 AM
5-way tie for 1st in Coastal still possible with Pitt-UNC winner in. Duke beats Miami, but loses to Heels. VPI would have to lose another game which might not happen except they've shown screw-up tendencies. The tie-breaker would be fascinating.

Or if Pitt beats the heels, we lose to Miami and beat the heels.

devildeac
11-10-2013, 08:14 AM
5-way tie for 1st in Coastal still possible with Pitt-UNC winner in. Duke beats Miami, but loses to Heels. VPI would have to lose another game which might not happen except they've shown screw-up tendencies. The tie-breaker would be fascinating.


Or if Pitt beats the heels, we lose to Miami and beat the heels.

Go Tigers.

Go Devils. Take care of business.

ForkFondler
11-10-2013, 08:57 AM
After beating Miami, VPI is the clear favorite to win Coastal. Their two remaining games are against MD and UVA, which are both struggling mightily right now. So they are quite likely to get to 6-2. No other team can say that. If they do, the only team they have to worry about is Duke. If it gets down to choosing a 5-3 team, it will probably be VPI since like Miami one of their losses is out of division.

Duke has one likely win (Wake) and two near tossups on the schedule. The chances of us winning all three is somewhere in the 10-20% range.

If VPI does stumble, and Duke loses a game, the team most likely to step in is GT since the jackets are more likely to win their one game against Clemson than Miami is at win all three of their remaining games. Miami is more likely to win a tiebreaker though. The likely result of GT beating Clemson is that is will hand the coastal title to VPI.

UNC and Pitt can both get a share of the division title, but I don't think either one of them can get to the ACCCG.

So, in summary, the overall odds are something like this:

VPI: 80%
Duke: 12%
GT: 5%
Miami: 3%

Last week, Miami was the clear favorite. This week, they are all but dead.