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hurleyfor3
10-26-2013, 03:29 PM
Postgame thread, discuss here.

GGLC
10-26-2013, 03:30 PM
Great to see that kind of production out of Matt. Following it online, some of the lineup combinations in the second half were pretty darn interesting.

Here's the box score. (http://www.scacchoops.com/ViewHDGame.asp?hSchedule=20174&bView=0)

Furniture
10-26-2013, 03:30 PM
I thought it was a very good performance! What depth!

fh84
10-26-2013, 03:32 PM
Fun game, I thought the second half looked pretty good. Rodney and Jabari were as advertised, Hood is so smooth! I was positively surprised by Alex, Matt and Marshall. Great game overall. Quinn was somewhat inexistent, but I'm not too worried.

CDu
10-26-2013, 03:48 PM
Parker and Hood were again easily the best players on the floor. They are going to be a nightmare for the opposition.

Jones looked terrific. He was energetic on defense and aggressive on offense.

Plumlee showed some promise, though he did have a 5-6 inch height advantage when he was in there.

Sulaimon had a productive first half but a very quiet second half.

Jefferson just seems to have a knack for being in the right place at the right time. He was the recipient of several easy layups, and I don't think that was an accident.

Neither Cook nor Thornton did much on offense. Thornton was a menace on defense in the second half.

Interesting that Dawkins was basically relegated to the end-of-game squad today. Will be interesting to see how the minutes between Sulaimon, Jones, and Dawkins play out.

Billy Dat
10-26-2013, 04:08 PM
First off, CDu, it's nice to see you back in action. Your post captures what I saw.

It was exciting to see so many new players and combinations on the floor, and K went to the depth early and often. He's got a real abundance with which to mix and match. There were so much NEW, and K used so many combos, that it was hard to get a feel for who was rising above but I feel like it was Jabari, Rodney and Jones who impressed me the most.

Jones was the big surprise to me. The kid plays like he belongs out there, very unfreshman-like, is a productive contributor on both ends, and also an emotional leader. Bravo. I missed the first 7 minutes and assumed Dawkins was hurt because he didn't see the court again until the real scrub time.

Hood is smooth, never in a rush, and aggressive. He also gets major points for his unorthodox foul line stance at least a full shoulders-width right of center.

After years of seeing years of various Plumlees pump fake two feet from the rim and get stripped or stuffed (and I love you boys), I was thrilled to see Parker catch the ball two feet from the rim and bull it right up into the hoop. Power in the paint!

Some later game props to Marshall and Murphy. Murphy was very active on the offensive glass, and Marshall was a presence.

One can't underestimate the impact of all the whistles, especially in the first half. I tuned in at 1:15PM with seven minutes gone and the first half did not end until nearly 2:15PM. It was brutal.

Aside from being relieved that Jabari and Rodney look ready to be center stage, my big takeaway is that the comp for minutes between Quinn, Rasheed, Matt Jones, Dawkins, Thornton and Murphy is going to be INTENSE. Honestly, with all the various line-up combos, it seems like much is up in the air, even for the "bigs". K trotted out small line-ups, big line-ups, more traditional line-ups, all with a bunch of variations on the players. This is a real swiss army knife of a roster.

jipops
10-26-2013, 04:53 PM
Aside from being relieved that Jabari and Rodney look ready to be center stage, my big takeaway is that the comp for minutes between Quinn, Rasheed, Matt Jones, Dawkins, Thornton and Murphy is going to be INTENSE.

I don't quite see it this way. Rasheed still looks like the best guard on the roster by a decent margin. Though it was just one exhibition, our defense went south early in the first half when Dawkins subbed in. K pulled him and the D picked back up and we didn't see Andre again until late. I agree Matt looks promising but he's not beating out Sheed.

How about this lineup at the 2nd half 8 minute mark? Sulaimon, Ojeleye, Parker, Hood, Plumlee. That's a big lineup. Parker and Sheed shared point.

The guys are clearly not in sync with each other but it's a brand new group and it's October so no surprises there. Parker and Hood looked like the real deal to me. Hood seems automatic pulling up around foul line extended off that jab step. Parker created opportunities for Jefferson.

The defense overall is a work in progress. Bowie St waltzed into the lane way too many times in the first half.

Speculating, I see an 8 man rotation right now. Amile, Jabari, Quinn, Rasheed, Rodney, Tyler, Josh, Matt.

I think we're going to hear a ton of whistles this season.

GGLC
10-26-2013, 05:05 PM
How about this lineup at the 2nd half 8 minute mark? Sulaimon, Ojeleye, Parker, Hood, Plumlee. That's a big lineup. Parker and Sheed shared point.

We also saw lineups of (a) Rasheed, Hood, Murphy, Semi, and Marshall, and (b) Jones, Dawkins, Murphy, Semi, Marshall, among others. Pretty interesting, and good to see we have a number of players who K feels comfortable having them initiate the offense.

sagegrouse
10-26-2013, 08:26 PM
Generalizations on the weak evidence of one exhibition game. But hey, this is the internet.

1. Matt Jones is in the rotation.

2. Andre and MP3 are not -- but may recover.

3. Alex Murphy and Semi Olajeye also have some things to show before getting significant minutes.

4. Josh Hairston, based on what I saw today, is gonna play.

5. Starters (no surprises): Jabari, Rodney, Amile, Rasheed and Quinn.

6. Top reserves (wow!): TT, Josh, Matt

sagegrouse

Kedsy
10-26-2013, 10:38 PM
Generalizations on the weak evidence of one exhibition game. But hey, this is the internet.

1. Matt Jones is in the rotation.

2. Andre [is] not

I'm not buying it yet.

Cameron
10-26-2013, 10:47 PM
Excellent to see Matt Jones get off to such a positive start in his first "game" as a Blue Devil. The Sam Bowie State Sam Bowies or whoever they are are obviously not good enough to hang with Duke, but that doesn't matter. Exhibitions such as these are simply platforms for improvement scheduled to help a team mesh together, figure out who they are and to better evaluate its strengths and weaknesses. And it is clear that Matt Jones is going to be a strength of ours. Matt can score from almost anywhere inside the half-court, and with as good a first step as we have on the roster he can get to the rim -- as evidenced by his 5-of-6 shooting from the free-throw stripe. On a team like Duke's this year, which wants to get out and run and space the floor in the half court to open the game up for guys like Quinn and Rasheed and Jabari to do their thing, Jones is going to be an invaluable resource off the bench. As a quick-hitter from beyond the arc on offense and high-energy guy on defense, he will see ample rotation time. For those who have followed K's program for a long time, there are just certain kinds of freshmen that come in and you know that, with their particular set of skills, they are going to have a chance to compete and play some good minutes right away.

I know others here have been adamant that that won't be the case, but I strongly disagree. Like Rasheed a year ago, this kid already "gets it." Now, that doesn't mean he'll punch in numbers anywhere near as good as Rasheed's from a season ago. I do, however, think there will be the occasional game throughout the year, particularly early on, in which Matt's number will be called and he'll come up with a 15 to 20-point night with a handful of triples. Ask yourself this question: When is the last time a shooter as prolific as Matt -- a McDonald's All-American level talent -- came to Duke and didn't get meaningful playing time as a freshman? Yes, we have a lot more talent from top to bottom this year than most, but Matt is one of those talented players.

Henderson
10-27-2013, 10:37 AM
Generalizations on the weak evidence of one exhibition game. But hey, this is the internet.

1. Matt Jones is in the rotation.

2. Andre and MP3 are not -- but may recover.


I don't think Andre and Marshall are in the same boat. If I had to choose, I'd rather be in Marshall's based just on yesterday.

Matt Jones and Andre Dawkins play the same position. Matt had a great game both offensively and defensively. Andre had a horrible game. We'll see how that plays out in the next couple months. Nothing is determined by one exhibition game, but this team is deep at that off-guard position. And Matt's stock went up yesterday; Andre's sank.

MP3 is different. There is no one on the team who can do what he can do (i.e. be 7' tall). That makes his situation completely different from Andre's.

Henderson
10-27-2013, 11:01 AM
BTW, Todd Z's one contribution was a defensive rebound. He felt for his man, found him, backed him off, grabbed the rebound solidly and made the right outlet pass quickly. I know Todd isn't going to see much action this year, but it was a nice solid defensive play by him.

Kedsy
10-27-2013, 11:35 AM
Our first exhibition game of 2012-13 season, redshirt-freshman Alex Murphy started and played 19 effective minutes, shooting 60% from the field.

Our first exhibition game of the 2011-12 season, freshman Alex Murphy started and played 13 minutes. Andre Dawkins shot 1 for 5, for 2 points, in 15 ineffective minutes.

Our first exhibition game of the 2010-11 season, freshman Josh Hairston scored 7 points in 16 strong minutes, while Ryan Kelly scored 2 points in 9 foul-plagued minutes. Ryan went on to start 27 games and play 20+ mpg while Josh hardly played after January 1. Andre Dawkins scored 2 points on 1 for 5 shooting in 15 minutes in that first game, but ended up playing 20+ mpg for the season.

Our first exhibition game of the 2009-10 season, freshman Ryan Kelly played 17 minutes, while Nolan Smith played only 12 minutes. Ryan barely played after January 1 and Nolan, of course, starred for a national championship team. Freshman Andre Dawkins scored 0 points on 0 for 5 shooting in 20 minutes.

I'll add in the following:

In the first real game of 2009-10, Olek Czyz started and played 24 minutes.

In the first real game of 2008-09, freshman Miles Plumlee started while Gerald Henderson shot 2 for 7 from the field.


So, tell me again how Matt Jones is in the rotation and Andre Dawkins is behind Marshall Plumlee?

Also, I'm not sure what it is about Andre and the first exhibition game, but in the four such games he's played, he's shot 3 for 22 with zero three-pointers. I'm not sure yesterday's performance said anything about his "stock," or at least any more than it said in any of the other years.

dcar1985
10-27-2013, 12:17 PM
I don't think it really matters how those past situations worked out, K is going to play the more effective player. Everyone wants to see Dre do well in his year back, we're all pulling for him. I for one thought he was going to be a star when he first came to Duke but at some point you have to start looking at Dre for who he is and that's basically a one dimensional player who is so-so on defense. I remember hearing about Matt during his junior year as him being Andre 2.0 a player who could shoot lights out but not much else. Matt has clearly put in tons of work to expand his game and it shows. I just think if Matt can shoot the ball as well as his reputation suggest he can I don't see what advantage Andre has over him in their individual games.

I think the real battle for minutes is going to be Dre and Matt and not Rasheed and Dre.

Des Esseintes
10-27-2013, 12:44 PM
I don't think it really matters how those past situations worked out, K is going to play the more effective player. Everyone wants to see Dre do well in his year back, we're all pulling for him. I for one thought he was going to be a star when he first came to Duke but at some point you have to start looking at Dre for who he is and that's basically a one dimensional player who is so-so on defense. I remember hearing about Matt during his junior year as him being Andre 2.0 a player who could shoot lights out but not much else. Matt has clearly put in tons of work to expand his game and it shows. I just think if Matt can shoot the ball as well as his reputation suggest he can I don't see what advantage Andre has over him in their individual games.

I think the real battle for minutes is going to be Dre and Matt and not Rasheed and Dre.

What might distinguish Andre over Matt? Shooting. All things are relative, including elite shooting. If Matt shoots 40% from deep on the season and Andre shoots 45% that's a tangible difference. It's not the entire story and it might not prove decisive, but gradations of elite shooting matter.

CDu
10-27-2013, 01:00 PM
I'll add in the following:

In the first real game of 2009-10, Olek Czyz started and played 24 minutes.

In the first real game of 2008-09, freshman Miles Plumlee started while Gerald Henderson shot 2 for 7 from the field..

I agree with your assessment that exhibition games can be somewhat meaningless with regard to determining the rotation. But these two additional examples just don't seem relevant.

In the first real game of 2009-2010, Nolan Smith was suspended and Dawkins was a true freshman who had only been around the team for 2 months. Czyz was the only other scholarship player available that could play on the wing.

In that 2008-2009 opener, Henderson started and played 26 minutes (tied for the most minutes on the team). He just had an off-night shooting. Plumlee started because we had no proven options at C. He played just 13 minutes (second-fewest among our 5 big men options: Singler, Thomas, and McClure played more, Zoubek played less).

CDu
10-27-2013, 01:07 PM
What might distinguish Andre over Matt? Shooting. All things are relative, including elite shooting. If Matt shoots 40% from deep on the season and Andre shoots 45% that's a tangible difference. It's not the entire story and it might not prove decisive, but gradations of elite shooting matter.

Dawkins is a career 40% 3pt shooter. In two of his 3 seasons, he's shot below 40%. He has never shot 43.0% from 3. He has sat out for a full year. To expect him to return and shoot substantially better than he has ever shot in his life is probably unrealistic.

There are certainly gradations of "elite shooting." But it remains to be seen whether there is actually any gradation in shooting between Dawkins and Jones. And to this point (in admittedly a small sample size), Jones has shown more in the other facets of the game.

I'm not saying that Jones will certainly play ahead of Dawkins. But I do think that Dawkins is going to have to either substantially step up his shooting or his defense to be sure to beat out Jones for PT.

Des Esseintes
10-27-2013, 01:27 PM
Dawkins is a career 40% 3pt shooter. In two of his 3 seasons, he's shot below 40%. He has never shot 43.0% from 3. He has sat out for a full year. To expect him to return and shoot substantially better than he has ever shot in his life is probably unrealistic.

There are certainly gradations of "elite shooting." But it remains to be seen whether there is actually any gradation in shooting between Dawkins and Jones. And to this point (in admittedly a small sample size), Jones has shown more in the other facets of the game.

I'm not saying that Jones will certainly play ahead of Dawkins. But I do think that Dawkins is going to have to either substantially step up his shooting or his defense to be sure to beat out Jones for PT.
I'm not predicting 45%. I know Andre hasn't hit that percentage before. The OP said he didn't see what could distinguish Andre over Matt if both are excellent shooters. I was making the point that even with excellent shooters, degree matters. Matt has never shot 40% at the college level either. It was a hypothetical to demonstrate a point.

I'd also add that saying Jones has "shown more" is as you say a laughably small sample size. It might not even be accurate. Reports from the open practices had strong things to say about Andre and were quieter about Matt.

CDu
10-27-2013, 01:38 PM
I'm not predicting 45%. I know Andre hasn't hit that percentage before. The OP said he didn't see what could distinguish Andre over Matt if both are excellent shooters. I was making the point that even with excellent shooters, degree matters. Matt has never shot 40% at the college level either. It was a hypothetical to demonstrate a point.

I'd also add that saying Jones has "shown more" is as you say a laughably small sample size. It might not even be accurate. Reports from the open practices had strong things to say about Andre and were quieter about Matt.

We have 3 years of evidence that Dawkins brings little to the table but shooting. We have two exhibitions and an open practice worth of evidence that Jones can be a menace defensively and brings more to the table than shooting.

I admitted that it was a small sample size. But in the 3 times I've seen Jones on the court, he's shown me more on the defensive end than Dawkins has shown in 3 years. Will that last? We'll see.

azzefkram
10-27-2013, 02:11 PM
Also, I'm not sure what it is about Andre and the first exhibition game, but in the four such games he's played, he's shot 3 for 22 with zero three-pointers. I'm not sure yesterday's performance said anything about his "stock," or at least any more than it said in any of the other years.

I put zero stock in exhibition games. In my mind they are slightly above garbage time minutes in their use for evaluating performance from a fan's standpoint. My only concern with respect to Dre is that we saw more of the same. Exhibitions seem like an ideal situation to work on/showcase your secondary skills. Given how crowded the wing is, Dre will probably have to show more than shooting to earn his minutes.

DukieInBrasil
10-27-2013, 04:28 PM
We have 3 years of evidence that Dawkins brings little to the table but shooting. We have two exhibitions and an open practice worth of evidence that Jones can be a menace defensively and brings more to the table than shooting.

I admitted that it was a small sample size. But in the 3 times I've seen Jones on the court, he's shown me more on the defensive end than Dawkins has shown in 3 years. Will that last? We'll see.

wow, that's a tough thing to hear. I was hoping that Dre would have been able to develop his game more. I guess it remains to be seen if that will carry over to his play during the season, but it is an inauspicious sign.

dukelifer
10-27-2013, 05:12 PM
We have 3 years of evidence that Dawkins brings little to the table but shooting. We have two exhibitions and an open practice worth of evidence that Jones can be a menace defensively and brings more to the table than shooting.

I admitted that it was a small sample size. But in the 3 times I've seen Jones on the court, he's shown me more on the defensive end than Dawkins has shown in 3 years. Will that last? We'll see.

Once Jones gets confidence that he can play at this level - he has the potential to be a better all around player. He is kid who has clearly worked hard to become a top high school player and shooter. At this level it is more mental. We do not have enough info on his shooting under pressure.. Dawkins has hit some big shots but was never as clutch as JJ or Seth. If Matt has that in him- watch out.

Dukeblue91
10-27-2013, 07:17 PM
I for one am very encouraged by what I saw from the young ones and also believe Matt Jones is a star in the making.
I don't think that this game was any indication on where Andre is at this point, his leadership and experience is also very important to this team.
This will be a very exciting team to watch grow and play, when they really click then watch out.
Jabari and Rodney are the real deal, as is Rasheed as we already know, he is still a little too up and down but hopefully will get it going and be more consistent.
I haven't been this excited about a upcoming season in quite some time like I'm now and can't wait to see them grow and mature into a Duke team.

Gthoma2a
10-27-2013, 07:45 PM
We have 3 years of evidence that Dawkins brings little to the table but shooting. We have two exhibitions and an open practice worth of evidence that Jones can be a menace defensively and brings more to the table than shooting.

I admitted that it was a small sample size. But in the 3 times I've seen Jones on the court, he's shown me more on the defensive end than Dawkins has shown in 3 years. Will that last? We'll see.

And there isn't a member of of our team, not named Andre, has the experience of hitting huge shots that elevated their team to a National Championship. Keep in mind, I am not saying he should start based off of what we saw in the exhibition, but that his importance as a piece of this, and any other, team can't be left out.

I thought Matt was better than Sheed between the scrimmage and exhibition.

CDu
10-27-2013, 07:58 PM
And there isn't a member of of our team, not named Andre, has the experience of hitting huge shots that elevated their team to a National Championship. Keep in mind, I am not saying he should start based off of what we saw in the exhibition, but that his importance as a piece of this, and any other, team can't be left out.

I thought Matt was better than Sheed between the scrimmage and exhibition.

I don't want to discount what Dawkins did for us during the championship season. It was incredibly unselfish of him to give up his senior year of high school to help the team out. We almost certainly don't win the title without him on the team. But let's not overstate his role in our championship run, either. He played all of 44 minutes in that tourney, and hit just 2 shots, both of which came in the first half of a game. One of those threes was incredibly helpful in that it cut a lead to 3 in the first half. But is there any reason to assume that Scheyer, Singler, et al couldn't have gotten it done even if they went to the half down six instead of down 3?

Also, there's no reason to assume that Sulaimon and Jones can't hit big shots in big games. One could certainly recreate the situation that Dawkins excelled: limited minutes as a spot shooter and leave him in when he's hot. But he's yet to show that he's ready to defend at a big-time level, and he's never shown much offensive game except for hot streaks behind the three point line.

Jones has clearly looked the best of the three in limited minutes. He and Sulaimon are clearly more versatile players, and Jones looks to be a clearly better defender than Dawkins. If that continues, I suspect Dawkins will be the one on the outside looking in, because Jones is known to be a very good shooter as well. If it doesn't, then I'd expect Dawkins' role to expand, because - as you say - he has lots of experience and is a dangerous shooter.

We'll see how it plays out.

Newton_14
10-27-2013, 08:10 PM
I'm not buying it yet.

Neither am I, but I am admittedly worried. One good thing before the bad on Andre. I watched him intently yesterday during his time on the bench. He never once hung his head, was pullling for all of his teammates (including Jones and Rasheed) every time they made a positive play. No sulking, no pouting, no listlessness, nothing. That alone is progress from years past.

When he went out after his first appearance and sat to the very end of the half (K put him in for offense with 13 seconds left in the half after calling a timeout) I was texting Devildeac wondering if Andre had some type of injury or maybe a flu bug or something, but then K put him back in with 7 or so minutes to go with the other subs. He played fine on defense, but on offense missed all of his open 3's though all were on target. He then turned down a jumper, drove to the hoop and scored, drawing the foul. The bench went nuts. It is clear all of them want Andre to have success. I walked away fearing a repeat of Ricky Price's Sr year which I pray does not happen to Andre. Just feel he deserves a better outcome in his last year given all he has been through. I was on record as saying he and Rasheed would play a lot of minutes as he truly did look really good in the open practice, getting much more time with the White team than Matt. (and Matt did struggle a lot in the open practice).

Yesterday Matt obviously played really well. He is a good ball handler, good penetrator (though he always drives to finish rather than pass), and is very pesky on defense. I know he shot it well yesterday, but Matt will never be the shooter Andre is. Form is just not there. He has a funky push/hitch in this stroke, so like Rasheed, I think Matt will be streaky with the 3 Ball.

I was just really shocked in the first half with Matt and even Murphy getting more minutes than Andre. Like you said though, exhibition games typically mean nothing when it comes playing time and rotation. Was also surprised it took K so long to put in Marshall and Semi. Would have thought we would have seen them early.

As for the game overall, there was some good and some bad. 3 best players in my mind were Jabari, Hood, and Amile. I think Amile is the most improved player from last year and that is great. One really good thing, is unlike several recent years, this team is not going to play their best ball in November and December and I think that will be a good thing. With all the new faces, the new style, and more players in the rotation, it is going to take time for them to gell on offense and defense. So finally some announcer can say "You better get the Dukies early baby, cause come February they are going to be hard to hold". That bolds well for the future of this season.

Interior D, protecting the paint, needs a lot of work, as does the fast break defense. We got caught with poor floor balance yesterday that led to easy runouts by Bowie St. That will have to be corrected. If K pairs Jabari and MP3 in the paint at times, it will make the interior D much more stout. Both showed a great ability to block shots and protect the rim.

Offensively, Jabari is just a special player and a beast, Hood can score easily in many different ways, and Amile is showing he can and will score in the post. Quinn, Rasheed, and the other guards be it Andre, Matt or Murphy will get points with the 3 Ball or driving. Even much maligned Josh Hairston is knocking down that jumper and looking really smooth and comfortable doing to. Scoring is not going to be an issue. Too many weapons. Free throw shooting needs to improve though.

As for Andre, If my original synopsis on his contributions end up being wrong, then so be it, but I will be crushed if that comes to fruition and we see a repeat of Ricky Price. Will just be a sad deal if that happens.

Can't wait to see them again next Saturday to see how things play out in that game.

Go Duke!!

ChillinDuke
10-27-2013, 08:45 PM
I don't want to discount what Dawkins did for us during the championship season. It was incredibly unselfish of him to give up his senior year of high school to help the team out. We almost certainly don't win the title without him on the team. But let's not overstate his role in our championship run, either. He played all of 44 minutes in that tourney, and hit just 2 shots, both of which came in the first half of a game. One of those threes was incredibly helpful in that it cut a lead to 3 in the first half. But is there any reason to assume that Scheyer, Singler, et al couldn't have gotten it done even if they went to the half down six instead of down 3?

Also, there's no reason to assume that Sulaimon and Jones can't hit big shots in big games. One could certainly recreate the situation that Dawkins excelled: limited minutes as a spot shooter and leave him in when he's hot. But he's yet to show that he's ready to defend at a big-time level, and he's never shown much offensive game except for hot streaks behind the three point line.

Jones has clearly looked the best of the three in limited minutes. He and Sulaimon are clearly more versatile players, and Jones looks to be a clearly better defender than Dawkins. If that continues, I suspect Dawkins will be the one on the outside looking in, because Jones is known to be a very good shooter as well. If it doesn't, then I'd expect Dawkins' role to expand, because - as you say - he has lots of experience and is a dangerous shooter.

We'll see how it plays out.

Why is this so clear? Jones had a nice game - definitely exceeded my expectations - but I think this is far from clear.

Andre didn't play well in surprisingly few minutes. But Andre played quite well (to my eye) when we scrimmaged against each other in the blue/white and open practice - and our second unit is arguably better than Bowie State's starters (although Bowie State did look like a talented team that could compete in a power conference).

The reports and predictions on Matt Jones are simply premature. Way too few data points to draw a rational conclusion. I'm excited to see the kid play and grow but to call him our most talented "2 guard" is not something I would agree with, and especially not something I would call clear. I think Rasheed is still the most versatile of the three, but I'm still not sure we need his versatility in a starting lineup which includes Jabari Parker, Rodney Hood, and Amile Jefferson. Versatility was at a premium last year on a team starting Mason Plumlee, Ryan Kelly, and Seth Curry - three great players I would not consider particularly versatile. Not so much anymore. Andre's ability to spread the floor and open up the paint with his shooting might be a preferable alternative assuming our defense holds up. K does not appear to prefer this option thus far. So be it.

But I'm definitely not writing off Andre just yet. And similarly, I'm definitely not writing in Matt either. Need to see more from both - and much more from Matt.

- Chillin

Wheat/"/"/"
10-27-2013, 09:50 PM
Caveat: I haven't seen any play so far this year, or any of the freshmen or Hood play.

The question I have about this years team is who will lead? I'm assuming it will be Cook, but I'm not totally convinced he can take over a game. Maybe Parker or Hood can be that guy?

Last season, it seemed Seth Curry was the heart and soul of that team,(at least IMO). He was a killer in big games and as he went so did the team.

Who will take the role Curry left behind?

ChillinDuke
10-27-2013, 09:54 PM
Caveat: I haven't seen any play so far this year, or any of the freshmen or Hood play.

The question I have about this years team is who will lead? I'm assuming it will be Cook, but I'm not totally convinced he can take over a game. Maybe Parker or Hood can be that guy?

Last season, it seemed Seth Curry was the heart and soul of that team,(at least IMO). He was a killer in big games and as he went so did the team.

Who will take the role Curry left behind?

Parker. He's obviously capable skill-wise. After seeing him in the exhibition game, I think he's capable attitude-wise too. He just looks like he wants to win. And if a game needs a stop or a score to get that win, he just carries himself like he will make it happen.

That's my guess.

- Chillin

OldPhiKap
10-27-2013, 10:11 PM
Caveat: I haven't seen any play so far this year, or any of the freshmen or Hood play.

The question I have about this years team is who will lead? I'm assuming it will be Cook, but I'm not totally convinced he can take over a game. Maybe Parker or Hood can be that guy?

Last season, it seemed Seth Curry was the heart and soul of that team,(at least IMO). He was a killer in big games and as he went so did the team.

Who will take the role Curry left behind?

Excellent question. Without knowing anything (i.e. Acting as a typical internet poster), I am guessing that Hood established himself as a leader last year of the practice squad and now moves into that role easily. Up top, TT clearly has Coach's seal of approval. We will be a very good team if Quinn develops that well, and a lesser team if he does not. That simple.

Henderson
10-28-2013, 12:09 AM
But I'm definitely not writing off Andre just yet. And similarly, I'm definitely not writing in Matt either. Need to see more from both - and much more from Matt.


I agree with this. At the same time, we have to deal with the small samples we have available. Three weeks ago, we were talking about Dre competing with Rasheed for the starting position at the 2. I don't think we're talking about that so much anymore. Now we're talking about whether Dre or Matt will be the go-to guy off the bench at that position. Too early to tell, as I, you, Kedsy, and others have pointed out. But Dre doesn't get that slot just because he's a senior with a history of success. He's been away from the game and needs to earn a spot in the regular rotation.

It's hard to read the tea leaves regarding his limited playing time (I'm avoiding the word "benching" intentionally) in the Bowie State game. Maybe it was, "We know what you can do, let's see the new kid." But maybe not. We'll know more in two months.

kAzE
10-28-2013, 03:47 AM
Once Jones gets confidence that he can play at this level - he has the potential to be a better all around player. He is kid who has clearly worked hard to become a top high school player and shooter. At this level it is more mental. We do not have enough info on his shooting under pressure.. Dawkins has hit some big shots but was never as clutch as JJ or Seth. If Matt has that in him- watch out.

I don't remeber exactly when in the game he hit them, but there's no way we beat Baylor in the Elite 8 in 2010 without the 2 three pointers Andre hit. If that's not clutch, I don't know what is.

kAzE
10-28-2013, 04:15 AM
Of the three "2 guards" on the team, I think Rasheed is still the best option. I think all 3 will get minutes, but between Andre and Matt, the one who gets more minutes may be whoever has the hot hand that night. Like people have said, Rasheed is just more versatile. Although Matt has shown some defensive chops, Rasheed is still overall the better defender with his length and quickness, and has the ability to get in the paint and create shots/foul line opportunities with his athletic ability and passing. I think he's a very underrated passer. Check out the highlights for the Bowie St. game and take note of his drive on the right baseline where he hits Amile cutting from the left for a beautiful layup and-1. He also showed that he's willing to take a charge. I think once his shot gets back on track, it will be easier for people to get back on the Rasheed bandwagon. He's just a superior playmaker on both ends of the floor. I'll admit though, Matt seems like a good spot up shooter (he likes that corner 3) with a very quick release and some decent handles. I didn't expect him to be this good this early.

That said, I still think Semi has been the 2nd most impressive freshman. 6 rebounds in 11 minutes is pretty great, although it was a short team. Still better than Marshall with 1 board in 10 minutes. Anybody think Semi is the first "big" off the bench by the end of the year?

Des Esseintes
10-28-2013, 04:19 AM
I agree with this. At the same time, we have to deal with the small samples we have available. Three weeks ago, we were talking about Dre competing with Rasheed for the starting position at the 2. I don't think we're talking about that so much anymore. Now we're talking about whether Dre or Matt will be the go-to guy off the bench at that position. Too early to tell, as I, you, Kedsy, and others have pointed out. But Dre doesn't get that slot just because he's a senior with a history of success. He's been away from the game and needs to earn a spot in the regular rotation.

It's hard to read the tea leaves regarding his limited playing time (I'm avoiding the word "benching" intentionally) in the Bowie State game. Maybe it was, "We know what you can do, let's see the new kid." But maybe not. We'll know more in two months.

Actually, we don't. People love to say "It's a small sample size, but..." when they should say "It's a small sample size."

NSDukeFan
10-28-2013, 05:55 AM
Why is this so clear? Jones had a nice game - definitely exceeded my expectations - but I think this is far from clear.

Andre didn't play well in surprisingly few minutes. But Andre played quite well (to my eye) when we scrimmaged against each other in the blue/white and open practice - and our second unit is arguably better than Bowie State's starters (although Bowie State did look like a talented team that could compete in a power conference).

The reports and predictions on Matt Jones are simply premature. Way too few data points to draw a rational conclusion. I'm excited to see the kid play and grow but to call him our most talented "2 guard" is not something I would agree with, and especially not something I would call clear. I think Rasheed is still the most versatile of the three, but I'm still not sure we need his versatility in a starting lineup which includes Jabari Parker, Rodney Hood, and Amile Jefferson. Versatility was at a premium last year on a team starting Mason Plumlee, Ryan Kelly, and Seth Curry - three great players I would not consider particularly versatile. Not so much anymore. Andre's ability to spread the floor and open up the paint with his shooting might be a preferable alternative assuming our defense holds up. K does not appear to prefer this option thus far. So be it.

But I'm definitely not writing off Andre just yet. And similarly, I'm definitely not writing in Matt either. Need to see more from both - and much more from Matt.

- Chillin

I agree this is a small sample size. I realize Andre didn't play his best the last real games he played and he has not been a defensive stopper. I am a bit surprised that Matt Jones, in 20 minutes of exhibition play, has suddenly shown more than a guy who has kept Duke in some games and helped win some with his shooting. I would be surprised that Coach K played Andre any minutes on teams that won about 90 wins if he is as poor defensively as some seem to think. He may have lost focus more than some others defensively, but he has also had very good defensive stretches over his three years at Duke, especially when he has been surrounded by a good defensive team. I hope Matt has a great freshman year and career at Duke, but I am not sure the freshman will be a greater contributor this year than the much maligned senior.

duke09hms
10-28-2013, 07:22 AM
I would be surprised that Coach K played Andre any minutes on teams that won about 90 wins if he is as poor defensively as some seem to think. He may have lost focus more than some others defensively, but he has also had very good defensive stretches over his three years at Duke, especially when he has been surrounded by a good defensive team.

Didn't Coach K have a snarky response to a question about Andre's defense being better, and he said, "well it wouldn't take much." Andre's been pretty bad on defense. Hopefully, with the year off he can focus a lot better.

dukeENG2003
10-28-2013, 08:42 AM
For those who didn't see the game, Matt Jones hit a couple shots, yes, but they were WIDE OPEN 3's from the corner. It's like Bowie State didn't read the scouting report that he was a good shooter. He also didn't show particularly quick feet on D to me. I liked his agression, but the guards were able to get by him without too much difficulty. He might need to back off a little bit in all honesty. He did seem to get the rotations which was good.

I'm not saying Dawkins looked any better on D, in fact he was worse (I was SCREAMING at him on a couple of occasions). He missed multiple rotations, which is probably why K pulled him. Dawkins will get his though. He will be a contributor for sure as his shot is just too good. It was funny to watch him shooting basically 30 footers in warmups.

Its hard to gage too much in a game like that. There was simply NO flow due to the constant whistles.

Sheed looked great. He will start. He showed improved handles, great defense (he got whistled for some really horrible ticky tack calls which got in his head a little), and good ability to distribute. I liked seeing K using him as a point guard a bit in the second half. That was an interesting experiment and actually worked well.

I'm ok drawing conclusions on effort and defense from an early game, but remember, don't overreact to a good shooting night for a player given wide open shots. Jones will see time, but I'm not sure I want him defending Olivier Hanlan or PJ Hairston in a tight game.

MCFinARL
10-28-2013, 08:49 AM
Didn't Coach K have a snarky response to a question about Andre's defense being better, and he said, "well it wouldn't take much." Andre's been pretty bad on defense. Hopefully, with the year off he can focus a lot better.

I don't know whether he said this or not--but I sure hope not. We all talk about Coach K the master motivator, and certainly his remarks to the press are often part of that, taking sometimes unexpected opportunities to praise some players and be silent about others. And I know Coach K has a sense of humor that sometimes shows up in quick ad libs. But it's hard to imagine how making one of your players the butt of a public snarky crack that simultaneously gives a negative impression of past performance and belittles attempts to improve that performance could be anything but hurtful and dismissive.

I agree with those who say it's too soon to know how the Andre/Matt/Rasheed situation will play out. A quick hook for Andre after what someone reported as a missed defensive assignment (I didn't see the game) does sound a little like same old same old, where players who apparently had the coaches' full confidence got more latitude to stay in after occasional errors or missed assignments and those who did not seem to have that confidence for whatever reason, like Andre, did not. But it's one pre-season game.

And if, as someone else observed, Andre stayed engaged on the bench and defended more successfully when he returned to action, that may have been part of what the coaches were looking for from him. At the least, it suggests a healthier, more mature Andre who is ready to deal with whatever comes and can provide real senior leadership, on or off the court. So I'm hopeful.

rsvman
10-28-2013, 09:55 AM
Dawkins is a streaky 3-point shooter. Citing a career 3-point shooting percentage doesn't really capture the essence of his shooting. He's probably had games in the past where he's shot 20% or even less. But on the other hand (without looking up any stats), he's probably had games where he shot 60% or even higher.


The magic of Dawkins's shooting is not the overall percentage, but the fact that, at any given point in time, he could potentially hit 4 or 5 of them in a 2-minute stretch and completely demoralize the opposing team. Think Michigan State at Madison Square Garden, for example. It's hard to overstate the effect this can have on a game. The trick is to ride Dawkins when he's hot. If he hits his first three-pointer in a game, we should be looking to get him another open look as quickly as possible. Because if he hits that second open 3, look out. That's the time to keep getting him the ball.

I think it's all about confidence. That's the only way I can explain the streaky shooter. His natural shot is pure and almost automatic. He misses when he worries about making a shot; if he just shoots the ball, it generally goes in. So if he hits the first couple of shots, he can go into the "automatic" or "unconscious" mode (sometimes called "the zone" by sports psychologists). When he does that, he's a very, very good shooter.

The flip side of that coin is that if he misses 2 or 3, he seems apt to go into a conscious shooting mode, which is not good.

DukieInBrasil
10-28-2013, 10:50 AM
Dawkins is a streaky 3-point shooter. Citing a career 3-point shooting percentage doesn't really capture the essence of his shooting. He's probably had games in the past where he's shot 20% or even less. But on the other hand (without looking up any stats), he's probably had games where he shot 60% or even higher.


The magic of Dawkins's shooting is not the overall percentage, but the fact that, at any given point in time, he could potentially hit 4 or 5 of them in a 2-minute stretch and completely demoralize the opposing team. Think Michigan State at Madison Square Garden, for example. It's hard to overstate the effect this can have on a game. The trick is to ride Dawkins when he's hot. If he hits his first three-pointer in a game, we should be looking to get him another open look as quickly as possible. Because if he hits that second open 3, look out. That's the time to keep getting him the ball.

I think it's all about confidence. That's the only way I can explain the streaky shooter. His natural shot is pure and almost automatic. He misses when he worries about making a shot; if he just shoots the ball, it generally goes in. So if he hits the first couple of shots, he can go into the "automatic" or "unconscious" mode (sometimes called "the zone" by sports psychologists). When he does that, he's a very, very good shooter.

The flip side of that coin is that if he misses 2 or 3, he seems apt to go into a conscious shooting mode, which is not good.

both of those cases are indisputably true. Dawkins has had games where he went 0-5 3FGs (which is <20%) and he's had games where he shot 4-5 3FGs (>60%).
I'm hoping that Andre will be able to get more chances to shoot non-3s (and make them of course), which would hopefully give him the feel of the ball going thru the hoop and boost his confidence on 3s. That would largely be predicated on a) an improved handle to drive for a pull-up jumper (not sure how effective he is at that) as well as b) cutting into the lane at the right time for 1 or no-dribble dunks or jumpers and c) steals and other defensive plays that lead to layups/dunks (i've seen Dre do this so we know it can happen).
As has been pointed out by plenty of others there seem to be 2 conditions on his playing time: a) defense, if he messes up a rotation or other miscue his PT tends to go down a lot and b) if he's hot shooting K has a tendency to be forgiving about a).
I'm really hoping Dre puts it together this year and shakes the inconsistency (of effort) that has dogged him in the past.

Skitzle
10-28-2013, 11:06 AM
1) I didnt watch the exhibition
2) It was only one game (and an exhibition)

That said, when looking at the box score the FIRST thing that jumped out to me was Andre's playing time and production. I remember having a conversation with Jim Sumner earlier this year befpre Dawkins announced he was coming back. While I felt that he was the odd odd one out for playing time Jim did a good job of convincing me that if Dawkins and the staff didn't mutually believe that Dawkins would play significant minutes, they would have parted ways

(Source Post (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?31129-2013-14-Expectations&p=645294#post645294)

I think we need to wait till at least the second regular season game (at LEAST) before trying to figure the minutes distribution for Dawkins (and Jones and Murphy)

Potato Head
10-28-2013, 11:26 AM
While I felt that he was the odd odd one out for playing time Jim did a good job of convincing me that if Dawkins and the staff didn't mutually believe that Dawkins would play significant minutes, they would have parted ways

I get the sense after the last year that Andre is just glad to be back on the team and playing time isn't going to be that big of an issue. I mean, he took the season off because of a personal tragedy, I doubt someone would ever come back from that with playing time demands.

MCFinARL
10-28-2013, 11:51 AM
I get the sense after the last year that Andre is just glad to be back on the team and playing time isn't going to be that big of an issue. I mean, he took the season off because of a personal tragedy, I doubt someone would ever come back from that with playing time demands.

Playing time demands, no. Playing time ambitions/desires, maybe. We know that K never promises people playing time; they have to earn it (although he obviously can predict fairly clearly that certain top-ranked recruits can expect a lot of playing time). Still, it's my sense (with no inside information) that he is pretty straight with players about what the likely range of possibilities is and about what would be best for them. Andre already has a Duke degree, so if Coach K didn't think he had a least a reasonable chance of earning significant minutes, it seems likely he would have encouraged him to transfer. "Reasonable chance," of course, is just that, and we will have to see how it all plays out.

Kedsy
10-28-2013, 12:02 PM
I doubt someone would ever come back from that with playing time demands.

That's true, but I believe Skitzle was talking about playing time expectations. On both sides.

My guess is it'll take a lot more than an exhibition game showing (or even two) to relegate Andre to the end of the bench.

flyingdutchdevil
10-28-2013, 01:09 PM
Playing time demands, no. Playing time ambitions/desires, maybe. We know that K never promises people playing time; they have to earn it (although he obviously can predict fairly clearly that certain top-ranked recruits can expect a lot of playing time). Still, it's my sense (with no inside information) that he is pretty straight with players about what the likely range of possibilities is and about what would be best for them. Andre already has a Duke degree, so if Coach K didn't think he had a least a reasonable chance of earning significant minutes, it seems likely he would have encouraged him to transfer. "Reasonable chance," of course, is just that, and we will have to see how it all plays out.

I have to agree with this 100%. Andre is a 5th year senior, meaning he could have transferred to any program for more guaranteed playing time. I think Coach K told Andre what his value to the team is and could be, and Andre bought into it and hence stayed.

Coach K loves to win, but he also loves his kids. I doubt he wouldn't shoot it straight with Andre.

CDu
10-28-2013, 01:26 PM
Why is this so clear? Jones had a nice game - definitely exceeded my expectations - but I think this is far from clear.

Andre didn't play well in surprisingly few minutes. But Andre played quite well (to my eye) when we scrimmaged against each other in the blue/white and open practice - and our second unit is arguably better than Bowie State's starters (although Bowie State did look like a talented team that could compete in a power conference).

The reports and predictions on Matt Jones are simply premature. Way too few data points to draw a rational conclusion. I'm excited to see the kid play and grow but to call him our most talented "2 guard" is not something I would agree with, and especially not something I would call clear. I think Rasheed is still the most versatile of the three, but I'm still not sure we need his versatility in a starting lineup which includes Jabari Parker, Rodney Hood, and Amile Jefferson. Versatility was at a premium last year on a team starting Mason Plumlee, Ryan Kelly, and Seth Curry - three great players I would not consider particularly versatile. Not so much anymore. Andre's ability to spread the floor and open up the paint with his shooting might be a preferable alternative assuming our defense holds up. K does not appear to prefer this option thus far. So be it.

But I'm definitely not writing off Andre just yet. And similarly, I'm definitely not writing in Matt either. Need to see more from both - and much more from Matt.

- Chillin

Nowhere did I (or anyone else that I know of) say call Jones our most talented 2 guard. I simply said that, in the small sample thus far, Jones has looked (i.e., played) better than the other two. That does not mean that he is better. Just that, in a small sample size, he has looked better. Two TOTALLY different statements.

I'm not writing off Dawkins nor am I writing in Jones. And I'm certainly not making any declarative statements of who is the most talented. Far from it.

ChillinDuke
10-28-2013, 02:35 PM
Nowhere did I (or anyone else that I know of) say call Jones our most talented 2 guard. I simply said that, in the small sample thus far, Jones has looked (i.e., played) better than the other two. That does not mean that he is better. Just that, in a small sample size, he has looked better. Two TOTALLY different statements.

I'm not writing off Dawkins nor am I writing in Jones. And I'm certainly not making any declarative statements of who is the most talented. Far from it.

Sorry, didn't mean to get you defensive.

I just wanted to make sure others didn't read your comment, think Matt Jones is outplaying our other guards, and run with it like we often see in posts regarding our incoming freshmen and predicting tons of minutes. Just wanted to emphasize that Matt Jones had a very nice first 20 minutes of unofficial, exhibition basketball in a Duke uniform.

I admit I'm a bit confused and surprised by Andre's lack of PT, but it's not enough for me to change my views regarding his usage this year. I don't think I would change even after the next exhibition game. Just need to see much more.

- Chillin

lotusland
10-28-2013, 03:04 PM
Isn't it possible that with 3 top recruits in the house K wanted the frosh to see some playing time in this game versus the next one? Since everyone will most likely get a look in exhibitions why not give Jones some extra burn while the recruits who have likely played with/against him in HS and on the AAU circuit are in the house. It doesn't hurt in terms of putting the best foot forward for recruits to see a freshman other than Jabari getting significant PT. Okafor probably isn't worried about playing but the other two are going to be competing with upper-classmen for playing time so why not let them see a freshman getting minutes over a veteran?

Dre will be in the rotation for his shooting, Sheed will most likely start and Jones can earn some PT if he plays well in practice or if Sheed or Dre are not performing as well as expected. Barring injury however, Jones will finish behind Dre and Sheed minutes played IMO.

dcar1985
10-28-2013, 03:06 PM
Sorry, didn't mean to get you defensive.

I just wanted to make sure others didn't read your comment, think Matt Jones is outplaying our other guards, and run with it like we often see in posts regarding our incoming freshmen and predicting tons of minutes. Just wanted to emphasize that Matt Jones had a very nice first 20 minutes of unofficial, exhibition basketball in a Duke uniform.

I admit I'm a bit confused and surprised by Andre's lack of PT, but it's not enough for me to change my views regarding his usage this year. I don't think I would change even after the next exhibition game. Just need to see much more.

- Chillin

I think the thing for me at least is that we've seen plenty, 3 years worth of tape on Dre and his game so it just seems like more of the same. Who knows how Jones will perform over the course of the season, he'll hit that freshman wall and make freshman mistakes from time to time no doubt. But he's already displayed more versatility in his game in a couple of exhibitions than Dre has during his time at Duke. Matt looked pretty comfortable bringing the ball up the court and showed no hesitation in his handle doing so or attempting to get to the cup. Dre looked shaky at best with the ball when he actually decided to put it on the floor. For a 6'4 D1 SG at Duke no less that just seems odd to me. I don't pretend to know how things will shake out but I am not sure Dre's shooting alone is enough to get him quality minutes IF Jones can keep playing as he did Saturday. I also don't know how big of an IF that is, I think Matt is good...I know people will throw out RSCI ratings and whatnot but history whether its at Duke or other places says that's not the deciding factor.

I hope the competition brings out the best in both players as well as Sheed...No such thing as having too many reliable options.

Kedsy
10-28-2013, 04:27 PM
I think the thing for me at least is that we've seen plenty, 3 years worth of tape on Dre and his game so it just seems like more of the same. Who knows how Jones will perform over the course of the season, he'll hit that freshman wall and make freshman mistakes from time to time no doubt. But he's already displayed more versatility in his game in a couple of exhibitions than Dre has during his time at Duke.

I think you are making the mistake of equating what we fans have seen and what the coaches have seen. Coach K has seen about a zillion times more of each player than we have, and if he agreed with your assessment, I doubt he would have encouraged Andre to stay this season.

dcar1985
10-28-2013, 04:36 PM
I think you are making the mistake of equating what we fans have seen and what the coaches have seen. Coach K has seen about a zillion times more of each player than we have, and if he agreed with your assessment, I doubt he would have encouraged Andre to stay this season.

Definitely possible, I disagree though. I think Coach would've welcomed Dre back regardless of whether he thought he could get minutes or not because this is where Andre wanted to be, I don't know K personally but he seems to care about his kids and I think that goes deeper than basketball. Also Andre didn't workout with the team during his year off or leading up to making his decision to return to the team so coach didn't evaluate Dre before he welcomed him back.

Like I said though I'm just voicing my opinion not saying it's gospel, you never know how things are going to shake out until they do

CDu
10-28-2013, 04:47 PM
Definitely possible, I disagree though. I think Coach would've welcomed Dre back regardless of whether he thought he could get minutes or not because this is where Andre wanted to be, I don't know K personally but he seems to care about his kids and I think that goes deeper than basketball. Also Andre didn't workout with the team during his year off or leading up to making his decision to return to the team so coach didn't evaluate Dre before he welcomed him back.

Like I said though I'm just voicing my opinion not saying it's gospel, you never know how things are going to shake out until they do

I completely agree, and would add the following: even if Coach K DID believe that Dawkins would be a major contributor as of spring/early-summer, his view may have changed once he saw both players in practice. I'm quite sure that Coach K didn't guarantee Dawkins playing time. That's just not how he operates (PT is earned each year).

We know from past year's that Dawkins has had a bit of a roller coaster ride with regard to playing time, and we know that a lot of that roller coaster was related to defense. I don't see any reason to assume that his playing time might hinge on similar factors this year, too.

MCFinARL
10-28-2013, 05:31 PM
I completely agree, and would add the following: even if Coach K DID believe that Dawkins would be a major contributor as of spring/early-summer, his view may have changed once he saw both players in practice. I'm quite sure that Coach K didn't guarantee Dawkins playing time. That's just not how he operates (PT is earned each year).

We know from past year's that Dawkins has had a bit of a roller coaster ride with regard to playing time, and we know that a lot of that roller coaster was related to defense. I don't see any reason to NOT assume that his playing time might hinge on similar factors this year, too.

Fixed it for you, I think--that was what you meant, yes?

luvdahops
10-28-2013, 05:42 PM
I completely agree, and would add the following: even if Coach K DID believe that Dawkins would be a major contributor as of spring/early-summer, his view may have changed once he saw both players in practice. I'm quite sure that Coach K didn't guarantee Dawkins playing time. That's just not how he operates (PT is earned each year).

We know from past year's that Dawkins has had a bit of a roller coaster ride with regard to playing time, and we know that a lot of that roller coaster was related to defense. I don't see any reason to assume that his playing time might hinge on similar factors this year, too.

One other thing I would add is that it is quite possible that Jones is simply much better and more ready to play than anyone expected, the coaching staff included. These kids are evaluated relentlessly during their HS careers, but even the most highly touted operate kind of under the radar from the end of the Spring All-Star games until Fall Practice begins.

CDu
10-28-2013, 05:44 PM
Fixed it for you, I think--that was what you meant, yes?

Correct. I'm a dufus. Thanks for fixing it!

Troublemaker
10-28-2013, 06:03 PM
Keep in mind the first set of substitutions brought in Dawkins, Thornton, and Hairston. At the very least Dawkins was in the top 8 going into this game, had shared the white jersey with Sulaimon in the open practice, and played with the starters in Session 2 of the Blue-White game when it was starters vs subs. I think the situation is fluid, perhaps trending downwards for Dawkins, but I suspect both he and Jones will be in the rotation, and either of them (along with Sheed) could receive the most minutes based on who is playing best that day. For this Bowie St exhibition, advantage Jones. I'm very excited about Matt. Even prior to this game, Coach K had raved about him being a pleasant surprise, an excellent defender, and well-coached in high school. Combine that with his excellent shooting ability (which hasn't really been displayed in the public games yet), and he'll affect many games this season.

duketaylor
10-28-2013, 07:12 PM
I imagine Hood will be one of the team leaders and a go-to guy.

Wheat, do you fish for stripers/rockfish this time of year? I'm going out later this week to try;)

ncexnyc
10-28-2013, 08:37 PM
Buckle up your seat belts ladies and gentlemen, because it's going to get really bumpy here at DBR this year. Yes, there is a ton of talent on this year's squad, but with that talent will come a boatload of threads discussing playing time and who should or shouldn't be getting it.

I'm going to tell you now that the Bruise Brothers will be at the center of a lot of those threads. Both Tyler and Josh are seniors, both know the system well and for those who didn't know or just haven't been paying much attention the past 3 years, Coach K loves Tyler's game. I'm also sure that if reports of improvements in Josh's jumper are true, then he'll be getting some very solid minutes as well.

Now, before anyone attempts to say I'm wrong, well just take a good long look at this thread. We've got one exhibition game in the books and we're already talking about Andre, Rasheed, and Matt. How long before we start debating the merits of Semi, Amile, Alex, Josh, and Marshall?

Wheat/"/"/"
10-28-2013, 09:02 PM
I imagine Hood will be one of the team leaders and a go-to guy.

Wheat, do you fish for stripers/rockfish this time of year? I'm going out later this week to try;)

Nope, I'm a Florida guy...redfish and snook this time of year and some bass tournaments.

I hear nothing but good things about Parker, but it's rare for a freshman to be a leader on the floor, so I think he's not as likely to be he guy.

I hear the same good things about Hood but he has some experience and should be settled in and confident after sitting out his transfer year, so I suspect you're right he has the best shot.

Still, gotta sit back and see if Cook can be that guy.

I think it will be clearer after the first few games...it should be obvious.

lotusland
10-28-2013, 10:56 PM
I don;t see where you can draw any negative conclusions about any player from it. What I did take from it is that Parker is as good as advertised and frankly better than I expected from the one HS game I watched him play last year. Hood also looks like he will be the big time player he's been touted to be. Marshall looks much improved and ready to contribute when needed. While not a starter or heavy rotation player I hoped for before his injury I think we may see him play in most games 5-10 avg MPG depending on matchups etc. He's really the only player who even attempts to establish post position. He mostly drew fouls and blocked shots against the smaller team and he converted a fair percentage from the stripe. Amile was active and crafty around the rim as expected. Murphy looked good showing some rebounding, shooting and shot blocking. Josh looked improved and steady. Tyler was Tyler. Quinn and Sheed showed some good things but were somewhat erratic at times. Dre didn't shoot well in his few minutes of mostly garbage time but he handled the ball some, made a nice dish and certainly didn't look bad. Jones did appear to be a good ball handler and better than average defender especially for a freshman and very opportunistic offensively. Don't underestimate the value of having Dre setting up on the 3 point line during the break though. The defense can't ignore him and that's going to open up the lane for cutters. To me this offense is much more suited to Dre's game than last year's.

The one thing I would like to see more of is attacking the press. We caught the ball going the wrong way on the in-bound most times. I would like to see someone like Parker setup at half court or just inside the back court to get an outlet pass and advance the ball or make skip pass. While they didn't really bother us with the press too much we didn't really attack it either.

Semi is a gifted athlete but he's raw. I don't think he's a viable option at center as some folks hoped he would be. I expect he would be behind Amile, MP3, Josh and Murphy as well as Parker is K chose to play him there. If I had to pick someone to red-shirt it would be Semi at this point. I'm not suggesting that he should red shirt but I would say he is our least essential player this year. Granted a lot of teams would love to have a guy like him but I think he'll be mostly a practice player this year. Don't get me wrong I think Semi may be a stud for Duke as he gets more polished but someone has to sit this year and I'm guessing Semi holds down the end of the bench most games.

As expected, Duke looks to be an average rebounding team at best. The trick will be to create enough turnovers to offset the second shots we give up. With last year's team I felt confident from the start that Duke would compete for a the conference title and be a contender. This year's team may have a slightly higher ceiling but I expect them to look ragged at times.

wk2109
10-29-2013, 12:21 AM
If you look at the Duke bench at the start of the game, the non-starters are usually seated in order by their spot in the rotation, with the 6th/7th guys closest to the coaches and the 11th/12th guys + walk-ons at the other end. I remember reading somewhere that K intentionally has the team sit in this order because he likes having things organized.

The seating order for the Bowie State game was Josh, Tyler, Andre, Alex, Matt, Semi, Marshall, Todd, Nick. The first three guys were the first off the bench in the first half, but Josh, Tyler and Matt (not Andre) were the first subs in the second half. Semi was the fourth sub with about 12:30 left in the second.

Like many others, I don't think anyone should read too much into K's substitution patterns in exhibition games. If Andre were gonna spend the season at the end of the bench, he would literally sit at the end of the bench.

gep
10-29-2013, 12:33 AM
Semi is a gifted athlete but he's raw. I don't think he's a viable option at center as some folks hoped he would be. I expect he would be behind Amile, MP3, Josh and Murphy as well as Parker is K chose to play him there. If I had to pick someone to red-shirt it would be Semi at this point. I'm not suggesting that he should red shirt but I would say he is our least essential player this year. Granted a lot of teams would love to have a guy like him but I think he'll be mostly a practice player this year. Don't get me wrong I think Semi may be a stud for Duke as he gets more polished but someone has to sit this year and I'm guessing Semi holds down the end of the bench most games.

I don't recall reading that someone HAS to sit out (redshirt) this year. Apologies if I missed it...

CDu
10-29-2013, 07:46 AM
I don't recall reading that someone HAS to sit out (redshirt) this year. Apologies if I missed it...

I don't think lotus was saying anyone has to redshirt. Just that, with 12 recruited players, at least one (and likely two or three) will get squeezed out of minutes.

lotusland
10-29-2013, 07:52 AM
I don't recall reading that someone HAS to sit out (redshirt) this year. Apologies if I missed it...

no I meant to type IF someone had to redshirt I'd pick semi as most likely but I wasn't stating that he should red shirt. It's just that his game seems pretty raw. He looks around 6'5 to me - clearly shorter than josh so he's either an undersized 4 or an unskilled 3 compared with duke's other wings. On one hand it would give him another year to develop but there is always the risk of an injury later. I don't think anyone will actually red shirt this year

sagegrouse
10-29-2013, 08:35 AM
I don't think lotus was saying anyone has to redshirt. Just that, with 12 recruited players, at least one (and likely two or three) will get squeezed out of minutes.


no I meant to type IF someone had to redshirt I'd pick semi as most likely but I wasn't stating that he should red shirt. It's just that his game seems pretty raw. He looks around 6'5 to me - clearly shorter than josh so he's either an undersized 4 or an unskilled 3 compared with duke's other wings. On one hand it would give him another year to develop but there is always the risk of an injury later. I don't think anyone will actually red shirt this year

And -- before 100 other posters say it -- there are no redshirts at Duke. If you are healthy, you suit up, and you should be ready to go into the game. But, as it happens, some players like Marshall and Alex don't actually get into a game and, therefore, get another year of eligibility. K wants all the troops ready for battle, and what else would you expect from a West Point Army captain?

sagegrouse

freshmanjs
10-29-2013, 09:08 AM
And -- before 100 other posters say it -- there are no redshirts at Duke. If you are healthy, you suit up, and you should be ready to go into the game. But, as it happens, some players like Marshall and Alex don't actually get into a game and, therefore, get another year of eligibility. K wants all the troops ready for battle, and what else would you expect from a West Point Army captain?

sagegrouse

not following. we had 2 redshirts just recently. they didn't "just happen" to play in zero games. there was a plan to redshirt them. it's true that there was no public announcement of such, but the players and coaches knew what the plan was.

Troublemaker
10-29-2013, 09:32 AM
The seating order for the Bowie State game was Josh, Tyler, Andre, Alex, Matt, Semi, Marshall, Todd, Nick. The first three guys were the first off the bench in the first half, but Josh, Tyler and Matt (not Andre) were the first subs in the second half. Semi was the fourth sub with about 12:30 left in the second.

Thanks, I was wondering about that order. Semi and Marshall appear to be the 11th and 12th men for now, as they were the only two players that didn't play in the first half. But interestingly to me, through 3 public scrimmages, they both look better than my offseason expectations of what I thought they might look like at his point. Not a groundbreaking thought here, but this team is loaded and quite deep, and I don't believe any of the 12 players would be out of place in Duke's playing rotation.

Through 3 public scrimmages, if I were to divide the players into categories of what they look like compared to my offseason expectations, it would go something like this:

Better - Jabari, Quinn, Matt, Marshall, Semi
Even - Rodney, Amile, Tyler, Andre, Josh
Less - Sheed, Alex

Everyone's list will be different, of course, depending on their own offseason expectations. (Where a player is listed as "less," there is no blame to assign, and if there were, it would lie with me for overprojecting and not the player.)

CDu
10-29-2013, 09:35 AM
Thanks, I was wondering about that order. Semi and Marshall appear to be the 11th and 12th men for now, as they were the only two players that didn't play in the first half. But interestingly to me, through 3 public scrimmages, they both look better than my offseason expectations of what I thought they might look at his point. Not a groundbreaking thought here, but this team is loaded and quite deep, and I don't believe any of the 12 players would be out of place in Duke's playing rotation.

Through 3 public scrimmages, if I were to divide the players into categories of what they look like compared to my offseason expectations, it would go something like this:

Better - Jabari, Quinn, Matt, Marshall, Semi
Even - Rodney, Amile, Tyler, Andre, Josh
Less - Sheed, Alex

Everyone's list will be different, of course, depending on their own offseason expectations. (Where a player is listed as "less," there is no blame to assign, and if there were, it would lie with me for overprojecting and not the player.)

That's about what I would have suggested as well. The obvious note (before someone mistakes what you said) being that the rating system is relative to one's personal expectation of that particular player - not relative to any other player. So Sulaimon being a bit below expectations so far does not mean that we think he's shown less than Ojeleye. Just that the expectations for him coming in were sky high, wheres the expecations for Ojeleye were fairly low.

And I agree with freshmanjs. There was clearly an intent to redshirt Murphy and Plumlee. Of course they were available to play if absolutely necessary, but the intention from as far back as December (maybe even earlier) was to redshirt both. To suggest that there are no redshirts at Duke is just not accurate, as seen by the 2011 season. Redshirts are exceedingly rare at Duke (and in college basketball in general). But they do exist.

Troublemaker
10-29-2013, 09:46 AM
Nope, I'm a Florida guy...redfish and snook this time of year and some bass tournaments.

I hear nothing but good things about Parker, but it's rare for a freshman to be a leader on the floor, so I think he's not as likely to be he guy.

I hear the same good things about Hood but he has some experience and should be settled in and confident after sitting out his transfer year, so I suspect you're right he has the best shot.

Still, gotta sit back and see if Cook can be that guy.

I think it will be clearer after the first few games...it should be obvious.

It depends on your definition of leader. I don't think most Duke fans would've considered Curry to be a vocal leader, but as you point out, he did lead (when he was physically able to) by being a go-to guy on offense. From that standpoint, Jabari absolutely could fill the same role despite being a freshman.

For vocal leadership, the point guards Thornton and Cook will be the main talkers, I think. Hood is a captain, and he will lead by example while making an adjustment to leading more by words.

CDu
10-29-2013, 09:51 AM
It depends on your definition of leader. I don't think most Duke fans would've considered Curry to be a vocal leader, but as you point out, he did lead (when he was physically able to) by being a go-to guy on offense. From that standpoint, Jabari absolutely could fill the same role despite being a freshman.

For vocal leadership, the point guards Thornton and Cook will be the main talkers, I think. Hood is a captain, and he will lead by example while making an adjustment to leading more by words.

I think that Parker and Hood will be the "leaders by example" in terms of their play. Gone are the days when freshmen can't carry a team.

Thornton and Cook will almost certainly be the vocal/emotional leaders of the team.

The good news is that there is SO much weaponry though. If Parker and Hood are both having an off-night? Cook and Sulaimon are certainly capable of going off. Take them out? Jefferson is more than capable of picking up garbage buckets as a result of paying too much attention to the other guys. And if all else fails, Dawkins has shown he can carry the team with 5+ 3s in a game.

It's certainly still possible that we could have everyone tank at once, especially if we get complacent and take a ton of jumpers. But the more likely scenario is that you're going to have to score 80+ to have a realistic chance to beat us any night, because it is unlikely that we'll be held below that number on a regular basis.

Kfanarmy
10-29-2013, 10:26 AM
And there isn't a member of of our team, not named Andre, has the experience of hitting huge shots that elevated their team to a National Championship. Keep in mind, I am not saying he should start based off of what we saw in the exhibition, but that his importance as a piece of this, and any other, team can't be left out.

I thought Matt was better than Sheed between the scrimmage and exhibition. Would Duke have needed those shots if Andre played D?

UrinalCake
10-29-2013, 10:38 AM
And I agree with freshmanjs. There was clearly an intent to redshirt Murphy and Plumlee.

I think Sage was simply clarifying that there is no official form you fill out to say that someone is redshirting. You simply don't play them. At any point that season, Alex or MP3 could have stepped off the bench and gotten into the game, according to NCAA eligibility rules. But since they never did, they kept their year of eligibility. That flexibility exists, which allows you to change your mind if an injury or something were to occur.

It's a topic that comes up every time red shirting is discussed, so I think Sage wanted to answer the question before it was asked 8-).

NSDukeFan
10-29-2013, 12:10 PM
Would Duke have needed those shots if Andre played D?

No, the opposition would have hardly scored at all that year, if only Andre had played D.

Des Esseintes
10-29-2013, 12:13 PM
Would Duke have needed those shots if Andre played D?

Dispatch, we have a code yellow Churlishness-Ingratitude in progress, Sector Beta Three Two. Request immediate backup.

sagegrouse
10-29-2013, 10:10 PM
not following. we had 2 redshirts just recently. they didn't "just happen" to play in zero games. there was a plan to redshirt them. it's true that there was no public announcement of such, but the players and coaches knew what the plan was.

I stand by my original post. "Redshirting" is not a status, so no one at Duke is declared as a redshirt in basketball; in football, Cut is open about redshirting. "Playing" is a status. If you don't play, you don't use up a year of eligibility (except for the four-years-out-of-five rule). The players are in uniform and go through warmups; they are available to play, in case of injury or other factors. A "redshirt" is the outcome of "not playing" in every game.

Do I disagree with what you said? Yes, only in that K has never said that I can recall that the "plan" is to redshirt a player. That's his style, and to say there is an unannounced plan is a bit of a distortion in that there are likely to be circumstances where the player would play.

sagegrouse

Dev11
10-29-2013, 10:19 PM
I stand by my original post. "Redshirting" is not a status, so no one at Duke is declared as a redshirt in basketball; in football, Cut is open about redshirting. "Playing" is a status. If you don't play, you don't use up a year of eligibility (except for the four-years-out-of-five rule). The players are in uniform and go through warmups; they are available to play, in case of injury or other factors. A "redshirt" is the outcome of "not playing" in every game.

Do I disagree with what you said? Yes, only in that K has never said that I can recall that the "plan" is to redshirt a player. That's his style, and to say there is an unannounced plan is a bit of a distortion in that there are likely to be circumstances where the player would play.

sagegrouse

Well, some of the redshirts on the football team still suit up and are ready to play if called upon. Ideally, we don't have so many injuries that we have to change a redshirt plan. No team officially puts somebody in the redshirt category because it doesn't mean anything during the season, only after, when the NCAA decides that the redshirt status applied and no eligibility is used.

Troublemaker
10-30-2013, 12:22 AM
That's about what I would have suggested as well. The obvious note (before someone mistakes what you said) being that the rating system is relative to one's personal expectation of that particular player - not relative to any other player. So Sulaimon being a bit below expectations so far does not mean that we think he's shown less than Ojeleye. Just that the expectations for him coming in were sky high, wheres the expecations for Ojeleye were fairly low.


Yes, thanks for the clarification, CDu. I would also add that I have every confidence in the world that Sheed will be a star before he leaves Duke. If he's not at that level yet through one exhibition game, it does not change my long-term outlook on him.

Troublemaker
10-30-2013, 12:26 AM
The good news is that there is SO much weaponry though. If Parker and Hood are both having an off-night? Cook and Sulaimon are certainly capable of going off. Take them out? Jefferson is more than capable of picking up garbage buckets as a result of paying too much attention to the other guys. And if all else fails, Dawkins has shown he can carry the team with 5+ 3s in a game.

It's certainly still possible that we could have everyone tank at once, especially if we get complacent and take a ton of jumpers. But the more likely scenario is that you're going to have to score 80+ to have a realistic chance to beat us any night, because it is unlikely that we'll be held below that number on a regular basis.

Indeed, good points. I also believe that Duke's abundance of weaponry as you put it will make it tough for opponents' star players to rest on defense. Duke has weapons everywhere and many of those weapons are quite adept at drawing fouls when attacking defenders. I think Duke projects as a team that's going to get opponents into a lot of foul trouble and frustrate fans of opposing teams that have less weaponry, especially if those opposing weaponry have to guard Jabari, Hood, Amile, Sheed, Cook, Jones, etc.

Henderson
10-30-2013, 08:23 AM
Indeed, good points. I also believe that Duke's abundance of weaponry as you put it will make it tough for opponents' star players to rest on defense. Duke has weapons everywhere and many of those weapons are quite adept at drawing fouls when attacking defenders. I think Duke projects as a team that's going to get opponents into a lot of foul trouble and frustrate fans of opposing teams that have less weaponry, especially if those opposing weaponry have to guard Jabari, Hood, Amile, Sheed, Cook, Jones, etc.

Agreed. With this team's depth, conditioning, and style of play, there may be more than a few games this season in which the game is close at the half but we pull away in the second half, having relentlessly exhausted the opponent.

Wheat/"/"/"
10-30-2013, 12:16 PM
It depends on your definition of leader. I don't think most Duke fans would've considered Curry to be a vocal leader, but as you point out, he did lead (when he was physically able to) by being a go-to guy on offense. From that standpoint, Jabari absolutely could fill the same role despite being a freshman.

For vocal leadership, the point guards Thornton and Cook will be the main talkers, I think. Hood is a captain, and he will lead by example while making an adjustment to leading more by words.

My definition would be the guy the team looks to on the court when it's time to take charge in a tight game.

Curry was absolutely that guy for Duke last season. He had "it".
(Paige is going to be touted as a leader, but by my definition, Hairston is that guy for UNC, whenever he plays, btw).

Agreed, there are leaders in the locker room and glue guys on the floor who are very valuable and some would call leaders...but really good teams have "that guy" who really gets out front.

I certainly wouldn't say Parker can't be that guy as a freshman, or Hood as a newcomer, I just haven't seen them and am curious who it's gonna be.

And again, I'm not writing off Cook either. I think his game has a chance to surprise some people who are not paying attention to his improvement in play.

Kedsy
10-30-2013, 12:42 PM
I certainly wouldn't say Parker can't be that guy as a freshman, or Hood as a newcomer, I just haven't seen them and am curious who it's gonna be.

I'm guessing Parker and Hood are the guys.

sagegrouse
11-01-2013, 08:42 AM
From the N&O article on K and leadership the following quote on the 12-minute scrimmage:


The starters won the scrimmage 29-23. Andre Dawkins, a starter on previous occasions this year, did not practice. That left fellow senior Tyler Thornton to play with Quinn Cook, Amil Jefferson, Rodney Hood and Jabari Parker on the first team. Sophomore Rasheed Sulaimon, ostensibly an off-guard, ran the blue squad on which veteran reserves Josh Hairston, Alex Murphy and Marshall Plumlee showed notable improvement.


Jacobs is not a regular hoops writer, I believe, so the facts may be a bit garbled. Dre has been a starter this year? Rasheed is on the reserves?

sagegrouse

MCFinARL
11-01-2013, 11:06 AM
From the N&O article on K and leadership the following quote on the 12-minute scrimmage:




Jacobs is not a regular hoops writer, I believe, so the facts may be a bit garbled. Dre has been a starter this year? Rasheed is on the reserves?

sagegrouse

Possibly Andre was a starter on white in the blue white scrimmages (don't remember) and that is what the writer was thinking? The article is a little vague about when this closed practice scrimmage took place ("the other day").

This item interests me for another reason, though--Andre was not practicing. Again, depending on timing, suggests a possible illness or mild injury that might partially explain Andre's limited minutes in the Bowie State game.