Kedsy
10-22-2013, 10:59 AM
Traditionally, our Phase 0 report includes CTC and the two exhibition games. This season, we're obviously a little late with the report, meaning technically this Phase will include only our upcoming exhibitions against Bowie State (10/26) and Drury (11/2). In the interest of completeness, I'll touch upon our tilts with these Division II teams, but I'm going to focus this Phase report on the season as a whole.
Let's start out with our next two games. Our first opponent, Bowie State, was 16-14 last season but they came on at the end, winning the CIAA championship. The Bulldogs have six players who stand between 6'6" and 6'8" (inclusive), although nobody taller than 6'8", and boast two players who played Division I at one time (6'7" Brian Freeman, who played at Binghamton, and 6'4" Donald Williams, who played at Maryland Eastern-Shore).
Our second exhibition opponent, Drury, represents the fifth straight defending Division II Champion that has come to Cameron (the other four were: Western Washington (2012), Bellarmine (2011), Cal-Poly Pomona (2010), and Findlay (2009)). The Drury roster has lots of experience, with three seniors and five juniors, but nobody taller than 6'6". The only current Panther who played Division I ball is 6'3" Lonnie Boga, who played at Wisconsin-Milwaukee.
Duke will be huge favorites in both games. Everybody happy? Let's move on. Here are the main questions I'll be focusing on this season:
(1) HEALTH!!!
We've had major injuries to important starters three seasons in a row. The team appears pretty healthy right now, so everybody cross whatever appendages seem appropriate and pray things stay that way.
The only Phase report last season in which "Health" was inadvertently not listed first was written less than a week before Ryan Kelly went down for almost two months.
Nuff said.
(2) Depth
Depth can mean many things. It could refer to depth of talent on the roster, and this year's team scores high by that standard. My guess is all 12 of our recruited scholarship players would start (or at least play big rotation minutes) on at least 90% of the college basketball teams out there. We have talent.
Another, possibly better definition, is how prepared you are for unforeseen emergencies, foul trouble, injuries, and the like. Last season, Amile Jefferson played 7 minutes combined in the two games before Ryan Kelly got hurt, but was talented and prepared enough to step in and play well in almost 20 mpg while Ryan was out. Again, all twelve recruited scholarship players on Duke's roster this season should be able to answer the bell when called.
But most fans seem to equate depth with how many players earn rotation minutes.
The good news here is that Coach K has announced he plans to go deeper into his bench this season than he generally has in the past. His usual rotation in close games after January 1 has tended to be around seven deep, with only a handful of teams during his Duke tenure that have even approached eight deep.
Will he go nine or ten deep this year? Who knows. If he does, it might simply mean the 9th and 10th guys play 5 mpg in big games instead of 0 mpg. But it will certainly be something to watch.
(2b) Rotation
A corollary to depth is who's going to be in the rotation. This season the top of the rotation seems fairly well set: Jabari Parker, Rodney Hood, Quinn Cook, Amile Jefferson, Rasheed Sulaimon, Andre Dawkins, and Tyler Thornton seem poised to play the lion's share of Duke's minutes. The pecking order beyond that is something to keep an eye on.
Josh Hairston is a senior who can defend inside and led the Duke team in charges taken last season. He'd seem to be in the best position for the 8th man/3rd big at this juncture. However, all four of our remaining players bring potentially intriguing things, and I could see all of them as 8th or 9th men at some point in the season.
Matt Jones has a reputation as an outstanding shooter and showed decent defensive chops at CTC. Marshall Plumlee is still coming back from multiple injuries but he looked pretty mobile at CTC and is our only player close to a 7-footer. Semi Ojeleye is built like a Sherman Tank and can jump out of the gym -- and according to Jay Williams, Semi wins every speed drill too. He looked pretty decent on the defensive end at CTC as well. And at one time Alex Murphy, our 2nd tallest player but with the mobility of a wing, appeared to be penciled in as a four-year starter. All should push for time, though this season at least I'd guess none of them has a ceiling higher than 8th man.
(3) Rebounding
A lot of people have identified defensive rebounding as a potential Achilles Heel for this year's Duke team. But here's something I bet you didn't know: In the past 16 seasons, our top two defensive rebounding teams were in 2006-07 (69.6% defensive rebounding pct) and 2011-12 (68.1%). Of course, the other thing those years have in common is they were the only two seasons in the time span that we didn't get out of the first round of the NCAA tournament.
Our worst three defensive rebounding teams were 1999-2000 (62.0%), 2005-06 (62.2%), and 2003-04 (62.9%), three seasons in which Duke either finished #1 in the Final AP poll or made the Final Four.
So maybe defensive rebounding prowess doesn't necessarily correlate to overall team strength? It may also be worth mentioning that those three worst rebounding teams all had either Shelden Williams or Carlos Boozer playing center for them.
All that said, I'm cautiously optimistic about Duke's defensive rebounding this season. Amile Jefferson is still thin, but he has put on some weight and seems fundamentally sound; Jabari Parker appeared to be a rebounding beast at CTC; Rodney Hood has good size for a small forward; and last season, Rasheed Sulaimon (10.9% def reb pct) and Quinn Cook (11.0% dr%) were both pretty solid rebounders for perimeter-oriented guards. To the extent that they play, both Semi Ojeleye and Marshall Plumlee have the potential to rebound well. So we may not dominate the defensive boards, but we should at least be adequate.
Due to the smallish nature of our first two opponents, I doubt we'll have too much more information after Phase 0 than we have now.
(4) Interior Defense
Along the same lines, I think our interior defense should be fine, although obviously teams with hulking centers could present a challenge for Amile Jefferson (listed on GoDuke.com at 210 lbs). While several ACC teams boast centers who outweigh Amile by 50 pounds or more, the only ones who present a major threat (for anything other than offensive rebounding, which I discussed in the previous section) are big centers who are relied upon by their teams to score, and there just aren't so many of those.
But there are some centers who fit that category and it will be interesting to see how Coach K deals with them when we face them. Obviously he could insert Marshall's height into the lineup, or Semi's strength, and that might be enough.
But after watching CTC, I believe the most likely counter to an overpowering center will be for Duke to go small.
I don't think there's a center in the country who can come close to guarding Jabari Parker. Not many power forwards who'll be able to handle Rodney Hood, either. Quinn and Rasheed should present challenges at their positions, and if the fifth player on the floor is Andre Dawkins or Matt Jones, whoever's guarding them can't afford to roam or help elsewhere.
Defense is a team endeavor. The small lineup I described will be long enough and quick enough to make it difficult for opponents to get the ball inside to their big man, especially if we're applying pressure 30 feet from the basket, or in the full- or three-quarters-court. But the opposing defense would likely be entirely ill-equipped to stop Duke. My guess is most big teams will be forced to go small to counter us and thus would negate their size advantage. It's something I'll be looking for as the season goes on.
But like rebounding, Phase 0 won't provide us very much information on this front.
(5) Defensive Style
This year's Duke team is more athletic than most of our recent editions. How will that affect our defensive prowess and personality?
Pomeroy measures team defense according to four factors: defensive rebounding, free throw rate (how often your opponent gets to the line), turnovers, and opponent's effective FG%. I think it's additionally helpful to break down opponent's FG% into 2-point % and 3-point %.
There are lots of ways to get where you want to be. In 2010 and 2013, our defensive rebounding was pretty strong (for Duke, anyway: 67.7% def reb % in 2013 and 67.5% in 2010) but our opponents got to the line pretty well (32.7% free throw rate in 2013 and 34.0% in 2010) and we didn't turn them over very much (20.4% turnover % in 2013 and 21.4% in 2010). What made those teams strong on D was the fact that our opponents shot lots of threes and didn't hit very many of them (36.8% of our opponents' shots last season were from three-range and they only hit 29.0%; 34.1% of opponents' shots were threes in 2010, and they hit a paltry 28.2% of them).
In 2005, we had a top 3 defense according to Pomeroy, but were average or below average at defensive rebounding, free throw rate, and turnover %. What we did well was not let our opponents take threes (only 26.5% of opponents' shots were from three-land) and then we smothered their 2-point shots (opponents only hit 41.3% of their 2-point shots that year, compared to 47.0% in the dismal defensive season of 2011-12).
In the late '90s and early '00s, the calling card of our defense was forcing turnovers. While our best turnover percentage over the past four seasons was a meh 21.4% in 2010, from 1997 to 2004 our worst turnover pct was 23.1% in 1999 (the best was 27.0% in 1998). (At the same time, our defensive rebounding was fairly anemic during that period.)
What'll it be this season? Coach K has promised us pressure D, some full-court, some three-quarter court traps, some high-pressure halfcourt D. Assuming it happens, it'll be fun to watch. And I think the best guess about our defensive personality is we'll see fairly low defensive rebounding numbers combined with an excitingly high amount of forced turnovers, similar to the glory years of 1997 to 2004. How well we guard shooters and how often we send our opponents to the line remains to be seen.
Put another way, Quinn Cook looked like a defensive dynamo at CTC, and disrupting the opposing point has always been key in Coach K's defensive schemes. Jabari Parker also looked like a plus defender. Rodney Hood is said to be the team's best defender, which is really saying something on a team containing Rasheed Sulaimon and Tyler Thornton. Matt Jones and Semi Ojeleye and Amile Jefferson appeared to be able to hold their own defensively, and Andre Dawkins looked much improved at CTC (although he still showed a couple lapses switching and helping). Josh Hairston can bang inside and is best on the team at drawing charges.
Watching Duke play D this season could be an awful lot of fun.
(6) Tempo
Coach K has also predicted we'll play faster than we have in recent years, perhaps also similar to the late '90s and early '00s. From 1998 to 2003, Duke's lowest number of possessions per 40 minutes was 73.4, peaking in 2001 (77.0) and 2002 (77.1). Since then, we've only broken 71 twice -- 71.6 in 2006 and 74.4 in 2008. Our highest number of possessions per 40 in the last five seasons was 70.2 in 2011. We've been under 69 in three of the past four years.
The key to those fast tempos of 1998 to 2003 was that we managed that speed while not turning the ball over excessively (every one of those seasons Duke had either the lowest or 2nd-lowest turnover percentage in the ACC and among the 42-lowest in the nation). Which means the key here is again Quinn Cook. So far in his career, Quinn has been strong at protecting the ball. If he can continue that trend while playing at a quicker pace, it'll be an exciting ride.
One side note on this topic: the prevailing wisdom is when you play a fast pace you also go deeper into your bench. While this may be true for many teams -- and may be true this year since Coach K says he's going to go deeper -- it has not been the case up until now at Duke during Coach K's time. In fact, the three fastest Duke teams in the past 17 seasons (2000, 2001, and 2002) were actually the three teams that played the shortest benches in Coach K's entire tenure at Duke.
In 1999-2000, in games decided by fewer than 20 points after January 1, Duke saw an average of 6.31 players playing 10 minutes or more while compiling 76.1 possessions per game. The 2000-01 season had an average of 6.5 such players with a 77.0 pace, and 2001-02 had 6.27 such players with a 77.1 pace. In contrast, the 2011-12 season had an average of 7.55 such players with a pedestrian 68.8 pace.
(7) Andre and Rasheed
The two Duke players who seem to be the biggest enigmas this season are Andre Dawkins and Rasheed Sulaimon. Opinions on Andre have ranged from some predicting a starting role while others suggesting he won't get off the bench. Guesses about Rasheed have ranged from sixth man to early NBA entry.
Andre, of course, is coming back from a season off while he tried to mentally regroup after a personal tragedy. Rasheed is the one presumed starter who Coach K hasn't confirmed in that role. How these two players respond to the uncertainty will go a long way toward determining the scope of Duke's success this season.
In the end, I'm hoping they both rise to the challenge. With his mind free and the body of a fifth-year senior, Andre has the potential to to be a star. His defense appears much improved, his shot has always been a thing of beauty, and at CTC he slashed to the hoop and/or drove and dished several times. Especially in the situation where the opponent's best defenders will likely be concentrated elsewhere, if Andre shows more consistency than he has in the past, he (and Duke) will be very hard to stop.
As a freshman, Rasheed looked like a rising star as well. His quickness, slashing ability, and top notch defensive acumen, combined with an unorthodox but fairly effective shot, had NBA scouts penning glowing reports. And yet Coach K has not yet annointed him as a starter. And at CTC he sometimes appeared to be trying to do too much. I predict he'll settle down and become the great player we all know he can be.
(8) Any weakness on offense?
We've discussed defense, but what weaknesses will Duke have on offense this season? Will we have any?
On the CTC broadcast, Dino Gaudio suggested Duke's going to have to find an interior scorer. I think he's way off base. First of all, Amile Jefferson is crafty around the basket and showed several times during CTC that he can score against a seven-footer. Second, every single player on Duke's team can get to the rack under the right circumstances. Third, in general teams need inside scoring to give them an "easy" score in tight situations, but Duke's "easy" score this year will probably be the fast break. Finally, we have such a strong offense with so many effective offensive weapons that the lack of a true back-to-the-basket scorer shouldn't even slow us down.
There has also been talk that free throw shooting might be Duke's kryptonite. Rodney Hood and Jabari Parker are going to get to the line a lot, they're both going to be out there at crunch time and neither are reputed to be stellar from the line. The parallels to the 2002 Duke/Indiana tournament game have the potential to induce nightmares. To add to the hysteria, none of Amile Jefferson, Marshall Plumlee, Josh Hairston, or Alex Murphy have shown even adequate free throw shooting in their careers so far. Tyler Thornton is not great from the line, either, and at CTC, Matt Jones hit only 3 of 8 freebies.
The good news is Quinn Cook and Rasheed Sulaimon are outstanding free throw shooters, and Andre Dawkins isn't too far behind them. What we need to watch for is whether the others can exceed expectations from the line. Josh, Marshall, and Alex showed improved vastly improved strokes at CTC. Jabari and Rodney combined to hit 12 of 15 from the charity stripe.
And more pertinent to this Phase report, this is an area on which we might actually get good input during the Phase 0 exhibition games.
(9) Leadership and Chemistry
Every team needs leadership. On a team that lost three senior leaders and has five players who weren't on the roster last season, it's not immediately obvious where that leadership's going to come from. Tyler Thornton and Josh Hairston are seniors with leadership quailities, but as the likely 7th and 8th men, they may not be on the court enough to lead. Andre Dawkins is also a senior (really a grad student) but his quiet demeanor and unique personal situation may (or may not) prove a hurdle in the leadership area. Quinn Cook could be the answer, but in the past his on-court emotions have been a bit too mercurial. Now an upperclassman, perhaps Quinn can mature in this area.
One of the biggest surprises of the off-season (at least to me) was the selection of Rodney Hood as captain (along with Tyler Thornton). Obviously the players and coaches see leadership qualities in this quiet newcomer (who isn't entirely a newcomer since he practiced with the team all last season). At CTC, Jabari Parker seemed to lead by example on the court, as well.
So, we have a lot of potential candidates here. It will be interesting to see who steps up and grabs the leadership mantle.
Another question is the oft-cited issue of "chemistry." The team is essentially being formed around two guys (Jabari and Rodney) who haven't yet played a minute for the Blue Devils, and Coach K has said playing time will at least partially be assigned by how well the others can work with those two. The potential for resentment is certainly there. How well will the team mesh?
At CTC this didn't appear to be a problem. The team seems to genuinely enjoy playing together and both Rodney and Jabari appear to be friendly, modest guys who most players would love to have on their team. Neither are prima donnas, both share the ball and the glory. So I'm not worried, but it may be something to track as the season unfolds.
(10) Let's go Duke
That's it for now. I'm really stoked for the ride this season.
Let's start out with our next two games. Our first opponent, Bowie State, was 16-14 last season but they came on at the end, winning the CIAA championship. The Bulldogs have six players who stand between 6'6" and 6'8" (inclusive), although nobody taller than 6'8", and boast two players who played Division I at one time (6'7" Brian Freeman, who played at Binghamton, and 6'4" Donald Williams, who played at Maryland Eastern-Shore).
Our second exhibition opponent, Drury, represents the fifth straight defending Division II Champion that has come to Cameron (the other four were: Western Washington (2012), Bellarmine (2011), Cal-Poly Pomona (2010), and Findlay (2009)). The Drury roster has lots of experience, with three seniors and five juniors, but nobody taller than 6'6". The only current Panther who played Division I ball is 6'3" Lonnie Boga, who played at Wisconsin-Milwaukee.
Duke will be huge favorites in both games. Everybody happy? Let's move on. Here are the main questions I'll be focusing on this season:
(1) HEALTH!!!
We've had major injuries to important starters three seasons in a row. The team appears pretty healthy right now, so everybody cross whatever appendages seem appropriate and pray things stay that way.
The only Phase report last season in which "Health" was inadvertently not listed first was written less than a week before Ryan Kelly went down for almost two months.
Nuff said.
(2) Depth
Depth can mean many things. It could refer to depth of talent on the roster, and this year's team scores high by that standard. My guess is all 12 of our recruited scholarship players would start (or at least play big rotation minutes) on at least 90% of the college basketball teams out there. We have talent.
Another, possibly better definition, is how prepared you are for unforeseen emergencies, foul trouble, injuries, and the like. Last season, Amile Jefferson played 7 minutes combined in the two games before Ryan Kelly got hurt, but was talented and prepared enough to step in and play well in almost 20 mpg while Ryan was out. Again, all twelve recruited scholarship players on Duke's roster this season should be able to answer the bell when called.
But most fans seem to equate depth with how many players earn rotation minutes.
The good news here is that Coach K has announced he plans to go deeper into his bench this season than he generally has in the past. His usual rotation in close games after January 1 has tended to be around seven deep, with only a handful of teams during his Duke tenure that have even approached eight deep.
Will he go nine or ten deep this year? Who knows. If he does, it might simply mean the 9th and 10th guys play 5 mpg in big games instead of 0 mpg. But it will certainly be something to watch.
(2b) Rotation
A corollary to depth is who's going to be in the rotation. This season the top of the rotation seems fairly well set: Jabari Parker, Rodney Hood, Quinn Cook, Amile Jefferson, Rasheed Sulaimon, Andre Dawkins, and Tyler Thornton seem poised to play the lion's share of Duke's minutes. The pecking order beyond that is something to keep an eye on.
Josh Hairston is a senior who can defend inside and led the Duke team in charges taken last season. He'd seem to be in the best position for the 8th man/3rd big at this juncture. However, all four of our remaining players bring potentially intriguing things, and I could see all of them as 8th or 9th men at some point in the season.
Matt Jones has a reputation as an outstanding shooter and showed decent defensive chops at CTC. Marshall Plumlee is still coming back from multiple injuries but he looked pretty mobile at CTC and is our only player close to a 7-footer. Semi Ojeleye is built like a Sherman Tank and can jump out of the gym -- and according to Jay Williams, Semi wins every speed drill too. He looked pretty decent on the defensive end at CTC as well. And at one time Alex Murphy, our 2nd tallest player but with the mobility of a wing, appeared to be penciled in as a four-year starter. All should push for time, though this season at least I'd guess none of them has a ceiling higher than 8th man.
(3) Rebounding
A lot of people have identified defensive rebounding as a potential Achilles Heel for this year's Duke team. But here's something I bet you didn't know: In the past 16 seasons, our top two defensive rebounding teams were in 2006-07 (69.6% defensive rebounding pct) and 2011-12 (68.1%). Of course, the other thing those years have in common is they were the only two seasons in the time span that we didn't get out of the first round of the NCAA tournament.
Our worst three defensive rebounding teams were 1999-2000 (62.0%), 2005-06 (62.2%), and 2003-04 (62.9%), three seasons in which Duke either finished #1 in the Final AP poll or made the Final Four.
So maybe defensive rebounding prowess doesn't necessarily correlate to overall team strength? It may also be worth mentioning that those three worst rebounding teams all had either Shelden Williams or Carlos Boozer playing center for them.
All that said, I'm cautiously optimistic about Duke's defensive rebounding this season. Amile Jefferson is still thin, but he has put on some weight and seems fundamentally sound; Jabari Parker appeared to be a rebounding beast at CTC; Rodney Hood has good size for a small forward; and last season, Rasheed Sulaimon (10.9% def reb pct) and Quinn Cook (11.0% dr%) were both pretty solid rebounders for perimeter-oriented guards. To the extent that they play, both Semi Ojeleye and Marshall Plumlee have the potential to rebound well. So we may not dominate the defensive boards, but we should at least be adequate.
Due to the smallish nature of our first two opponents, I doubt we'll have too much more information after Phase 0 than we have now.
(4) Interior Defense
Along the same lines, I think our interior defense should be fine, although obviously teams with hulking centers could present a challenge for Amile Jefferson (listed on GoDuke.com at 210 lbs). While several ACC teams boast centers who outweigh Amile by 50 pounds or more, the only ones who present a major threat (for anything other than offensive rebounding, which I discussed in the previous section) are big centers who are relied upon by their teams to score, and there just aren't so many of those.
But there are some centers who fit that category and it will be interesting to see how Coach K deals with them when we face them. Obviously he could insert Marshall's height into the lineup, or Semi's strength, and that might be enough.
But after watching CTC, I believe the most likely counter to an overpowering center will be for Duke to go small.
I don't think there's a center in the country who can come close to guarding Jabari Parker. Not many power forwards who'll be able to handle Rodney Hood, either. Quinn and Rasheed should present challenges at their positions, and if the fifth player on the floor is Andre Dawkins or Matt Jones, whoever's guarding them can't afford to roam or help elsewhere.
Defense is a team endeavor. The small lineup I described will be long enough and quick enough to make it difficult for opponents to get the ball inside to their big man, especially if we're applying pressure 30 feet from the basket, or in the full- or three-quarters-court. But the opposing defense would likely be entirely ill-equipped to stop Duke. My guess is most big teams will be forced to go small to counter us and thus would negate their size advantage. It's something I'll be looking for as the season goes on.
But like rebounding, Phase 0 won't provide us very much information on this front.
(5) Defensive Style
This year's Duke team is more athletic than most of our recent editions. How will that affect our defensive prowess and personality?
Pomeroy measures team defense according to four factors: defensive rebounding, free throw rate (how often your opponent gets to the line), turnovers, and opponent's effective FG%. I think it's additionally helpful to break down opponent's FG% into 2-point % and 3-point %.
There are lots of ways to get where you want to be. In 2010 and 2013, our defensive rebounding was pretty strong (for Duke, anyway: 67.7% def reb % in 2013 and 67.5% in 2010) but our opponents got to the line pretty well (32.7% free throw rate in 2013 and 34.0% in 2010) and we didn't turn them over very much (20.4% turnover % in 2013 and 21.4% in 2010). What made those teams strong on D was the fact that our opponents shot lots of threes and didn't hit very many of them (36.8% of our opponents' shots last season were from three-range and they only hit 29.0%; 34.1% of opponents' shots were threes in 2010, and they hit a paltry 28.2% of them).
In 2005, we had a top 3 defense according to Pomeroy, but were average or below average at defensive rebounding, free throw rate, and turnover %. What we did well was not let our opponents take threes (only 26.5% of opponents' shots were from three-land) and then we smothered their 2-point shots (opponents only hit 41.3% of their 2-point shots that year, compared to 47.0% in the dismal defensive season of 2011-12).
In the late '90s and early '00s, the calling card of our defense was forcing turnovers. While our best turnover percentage over the past four seasons was a meh 21.4% in 2010, from 1997 to 2004 our worst turnover pct was 23.1% in 1999 (the best was 27.0% in 1998). (At the same time, our defensive rebounding was fairly anemic during that period.)
What'll it be this season? Coach K has promised us pressure D, some full-court, some three-quarter court traps, some high-pressure halfcourt D. Assuming it happens, it'll be fun to watch. And I think the best guess about our defensive personality is we'll see fairly low defensive rebounding numbers combined with an excitingly high amount of forced turnovers, similar to the glory years of 1997 to 2004. How well we guard shooters and how often we send our opponents to the line remains to be seen.
Put another way, Quinn Cook looked like a defensive dynamo at CTC, and disrupting the opposing point has always been key in Coach K's defensive schemes. Jabari Parker also looked like a plus defender. Rodney Hood is said to be the team's best defender, which is really saying something on a team containing Rasheed Sulaimon and Tyler Thornton. Matt Jones and Semi Ojeleye and Amile Jefferson appeared to be able to hold their own defensively, and Andre Dawkins looked much improved at CTC (although he still showed a couple lapses switching and helping). Josh Hairston can bang inside and is best on the team at drawing charges.
Watching Duke play D this season could be an awful lot of fun.
(6) Tempo
Coach K has also predicted we'll play faster than we have in recent years, perhaps also similar to the late '90s and early '00s. From 1998 to 2003, Duke's lowest number of possessions per 40 minutes was 73.4, peaking in 2001 (77.0) and 2002 (77.1). Since then, we've only broken 71 twice -- 71.6 in 2006 and 74.4 in 2008. Our highest number of possessions per 40 in the last five seasons was 70.2 in 2011. We've been under 69 in three of the past four years.
The key to those fast tempos of 1998 to 2003 was that we managed that speed while not turning the ball over excessively (every one of those seasons Duke had either the lowest or 2nd-lowest turnover percentage in the ACC and among the 42-lowest in the nation). Which means the key here is again Quinn Cook. So far in his career, Quinn has been strong at protecting the ball. If he can continue that trend while playing at a quicker pace, it'll be an exciting ride.
One side note on this topic: the prevailing wisdom is when you play a fast pace you also go deeper into your bench. While this may be true for many teams -- and may be true this year since Coach K says he's going to go deeper -- it has not been the case up until now at Duke during Coach K's time. In fact, the three fastest Duke teams in the past 17 seasons (2000, 2001, and 2002) were actually the three teams that played the shortest benches in Coach K's entire tenure at Duke.
In 1999-2000, in games decided by fewer than 20 points after January 1, Duke saw an average of 6.31 players playing 10 minutes or more while compiling 76.1 possessions per game. The 2000-01 season had an average of 6.5 such players with a 77.0 pace, and 2001-02 had 6.27 such players with a 77.1 pace. In contrast, the 2011-12 season had an average of 7.55 such players with a pedestrian 68.8 pace.
(7) Andre and Rasheed
The two Duke players who seem to be the biggest enigmas this season are Andre Dawkins and Rasheed Sulaimon. Opinions on Andre have ranged from some predicting a starting role while others suggesting he won't get off the bench. Guesses about Rasheed have ranged from sixth man to early NBA entry.
Andre, of course, is coming back from a season off while he tried to mentally regroup after a personal tragedy. Rasheed is the one presumed starter who Coach K hasn't confirmed in that role. How these two players respond to the uncertainty will go a long way toward determining the scope of Duke's success this season.
In the end, I'm hoping they both rise to the challenge. With his mind free and the body of a fifth-year senior, Andre has the potential to to be a star. His defense appears much improved, his shot has always been a thing of beauty, and at CTC he slashed to the hoop and/or drove and dished several times. Especially in the situation where the opponent's best defenders will likely be concentrated elsewhere, if Andre shows more consistency than he has in the past, he (and Duke) will be very hard to stop.
As a freshman, Rasheed looked like a rising star as well. His quickness, slashing ability, and top notch defensive acumen, combined with an unorthodox but fairly effective shot, had NBA scouts penning glowing reports. And yet Coach K has not yet annointed him as a starter. And at CTC he sometimes appeared to be trying to do too much. I predict he'll settle down and become the great player we all know he can be.
(8) Any weakness on offense?
We've discussed defense, but what weaknesses will Duke have on offense this season? Will we have any?
On the CTC broadcast, Dino Gaudio suggested Duke's going to have to find an interior scorer. I think he's way off base. First of all, Amile Jefferson is crafty around the basket and showed several times during CTC that he can score against a seven-footer. Second, every single player on Duke's team can get to the rack under the right circumstances. Third, in general teams need inside scoring to give them an "easy" score in tight situations, but Duke's "easy" score this year will probably be the fast break. Finally, we have such a strong offense with so many effective offensive weapons that the lack of a true back-to-the-basket scorer shouldn't even slow us down.
There has also been talk that free throw shooting might be Duke's kryptonite. Rodney Hood and Jabari Parker are going to get to the line a lot, they're both going to be out there at crunch time and neither are reputed to be stellar from the line. The parallels to the 2002 Duke/Indiana tournament game have the potential to induce nightmares. To add to the hysteria, none of Amile Jefferson, Marshall Plumlee, Josh Hairston, or Alex Murphy have shown even adequate free throw shooting in their careers so far. Tyler Thornton is not great from the line, either, and at CTC, Matt Jones hit only 3 of 8 freebies.
The good news is Quinn Cook and Rasheed Sulaimon are outstanding free throw shooters, and Andre Dawkins isn't too far behind them. What we need to watch for is whether the others can exceed expectations from the line. Josh, Marshall, and Alex showed improved vastly improved strokes at CTC. Jabari and Rodney combined to hit 12 of 15 from the charity stripe.
And more pertinent to this Phase report, this is an area on which we might actually get good input during the Phase 0 exhibition games.
(9) Leadership and Chemistry
Every team needs leadership. On a team that lost three senior leaders and has five players who weren't on the roster last season, it's not immediately obvious where that leadership's going to come from. Tyler Thornton and Josh Hairston are seniors with leadership quailities, but as the likely 7th and 8th men, they may not be on the court enough to lead. Andre Dawkins is also a senior (really a grad student) but his quiet demeanor and unique personal situation may (or may not) prove a hurdle in the leadership area. Quinn Cook could be the answer, but in the past his on-court emotions have been a bit too mercurial. Now an upperclassman, perhaps Quinn can mature in this area.
One of the biggest surprises of the off-season (at least to me) was the selection of Rodney Hood as captain (along with Tyler Thornton). Obviously the players and coaches see leadership qualities in this quiet newcomer (who isn't entirely a newcomer since he practiced with the team all last season). At CTC, Jabari Parker seemed to lead by example on the court, as well.
So, we have a lot of potential candidates here. It will be interesting to see who steps up and grabs the leadership mantle.
Another question is the oft-cited issue of "chemistry." The team is essentially being formed around two guys (Jabari and Rodney) who haven't yet played a minute for the Blue Devils, and Coach K has said playing time will at least partially be assigned by how well the others can work with those two. The potential for resentment is certainly there. How well will the team mesh?
At CTC this didn't appear to be a problem. The team seems to genuinely enjoy playing together and both Rodney and Jabari appear to be friendly, modest guys who most players would love to have on their team. Neither are prima donnas, both share the ball and the glory. So I'm not worried, but it may be something to track as the season unfolds.
(10) Let's go Duke
That's it for now. I'm really stoked for the ride this season.