The 2013 Bowl Selection Vigil

[wilson]

The boys still have business to take care of, and it's way too early to project how the middle of the ACC pack will shake out over the next several weeks. However, bowl projections are beginning to proliferate, and as the season enters the stretch run, I thought it would be interesting to take a look at where we stand.
With several middle-of-the-road ACC teams beating up on each other (for example, Wake over the Twerps on Saturday), there look to be a lot of 6-win teams out of the ACC by season's end...perhaps as many as 10. That leaves Duke on the cusp of bowl eligibility, yet still out in the cold in several bowl projections. For example, ESPN's Mark Schlabach, (http://espn.go.com/college-football/bowls/projections) generally a pretty respected voice, has no room for Duke in his latest bowl projections. Jerry Palm (http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions) at CBS Sports likewise has the Devils on the outside looking in right now (he does, however, find room for the currently 1-5 heels in the Military Bowl vs. Tulsa).
On the other hand, ESPN's Brad Edwards (same link as Schlabach above) has us slated for the AdvoCare V100 Used-to-be-Independence Bowl vs. Vanderbilt, which would be a fun matchup.
Heather Dinich, ESPN's ACC beat writer, who probably pays closer attention to the ACC from top to bottom than any of these other prognosticators, has us back in the Belk Bowl (http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/61906/acc-bowl-projections-week-8-3) (no opponent specified).

Again, I know it's still pretty early and that a lot of questions will work themselves out; I just think it's interesting to take a look at the current conversation. Plus it's fun to wonder about bowl destinations after all of our years of languishing in the wilderness. Overall, I think there's little danger that a bowl-eligible Duke team would be wholly passed over, but this is a good reminder that there's work yet to be done. This is but one more reason that I like the team and coaching staff's comments about aiming higher than mere bowl eligibility, for a stronger finish to the season than we had last year...we just might need it.

[Bluedog]

With the ACC adding new members 'Cuse and Pitt, did the ACC pick up any more bowl slots? If not, seems like expansion from a "making bowls" perspective is certainly a negative for the ACC and more specifically Duke who may be one of the teams typically "on the border." I had thought the ACC picked up a new bowl a couple years ago - the Military Bowl if I'm recalling correctly. Certainly, this predicament is a good reason Duke fans should be cheering for FSU to make the national championship game - to possibly open up another bowl slot for Duke. Hopefully, we get to (at least) 7 wins to make it a moot point!

[Highlander]

Personally I think the Belk Bowl is a pretty ideal one for us to hope for. It is not so far away that our small fanbase would have a lot of difficulty getting to it, the matchup against the AAC is one that we could be competitive in, and it's typically the week after Christmas when many people have availability to travel. I worry about us going to a bowl in Louisiana and trying to fill the stands to any noticeable capacity.

[Dukehky]

State and Wake, from what I have seen, are both games that I think Duke should be favored in. That would get us to 7 wins; however, we could lose to both of those teams as well. For the sake of argument, let's say we split with State and Wake, a fairly modest expectation. This brings us again, to Carolina, for certain bowl eligibility. While I have found their ineptitude on the football field this season to be absolutely hilarious, this is a team with a whole lot of talent. Miami is no slouch and even though those Thursday Night ACC match-ups are always trap games, UNC could have beaten them.

Carolina would love nothing more than to get the Bell back as well as squelch Duke's chances for a sure fire bowl invite. I'd rather beat Wake and State and have it locked up before heading to Kenan Stadium.

[Skitzle]

Beat them all. Split Vtech and Miami. Get 9 wins for the first time in Duke football history (or at least since 1960... cause thats as far back as I could find...
Source: http://mcubed.net/ncaaf/teams/duke.shtml

Wishful thinking I'm sure, but I think 8 wins isn't that much a pipedream... we're rated better than State, Wake and Carolina in the latest ESPN ACC power rankings for whatever that is worth.

[OldPhiKap]

Per Wikipedia, so take it for what it may be worth -- the bowl selection order for the ACC this year:

Atlantic Coast Conference 2013:

#1 Bowl Championship Series. Automatic berth to a BCS bowl game, preferentially the Discover Orange Bowl.
#2 The Chick-fil-A Bowl versus SEC #5.
#3 The Russell Athletic Bowl versus AAC #1.
#4 The Hyundai Sun Bowl versus Pac-12 #4.
#5 The Belk Bowl versus AAC #2.
#6 The Music City Bowl versus SEC #7.
#7 The AdvoCare V100 Bowl versus SEC #10.
#8 The Military Bowl versus Conference USA #5.
#9 The Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl versus Pac-12 #9 (BYU has an agreement in place to be first selection for Fight Hunger bowl; ACC fills slot only if BYU is not bowl eligible). Edit to add: I think BYU is 5-2 currently.

[Devil in the Blue Dress]

Beat them all. Split Vtech and Miami. Get 9 wins for the first time in Duke football history (or at least since 1960... cause thats as far back as I could find...
Source: http://mcubed.net/ncaaf/teams/duke.shtml

Wishful thinking I'm sure, but I think 8 wins isn't that much a pipedream... we're rated better than State, Wake and Carolina in the latest ESPN ACC power rankings for whatever that is worth.
FYI, a little history lesson.... Regarding number of victories in a season, the 1938 team went undefeated, unscored on and untied in the regular season. Their only loss was in the Rose Bowl. Their nickname, Iron Dukes, is now heavily associated with various aspects of Duke athletics.;)

When I look up Duke stats both past and present, I use goduke.com.

[loran16]

With the ACC adding new members 'Cuse and Pitt, did the ACC pick up any more bowl slots? If not, seems like expansion from a "making bowls" perspective is certainly a negative for the ACC and more specifically Duke who may be one of the teams typically "on the border." I had thought the ACC picked up a new bowl a couple years ago - the Military Bowl if I'm recalling correctly. Certainly, this predicament is a good reason Duke fans should be cheering for FSU to make the national championship game - to possibly open up another bowl slot for Duke. Hopefully, we get to (at least) 7 wins to make it a moot point!

The ACC did not, as the AAC kept all of their bowl slots but the BCS bowl. The ACC has 8 bowl tie ins. They are:

Orange (ACC1)
Chick-fil-A (ACC2)
Russell Athletic (ACC3)
Sun (ACC4)*
Belk (ACC5)
Music City (ACC6)
Independence (ACC7)
Military (ACC8)

*In the event the loser of the ACC Title game is not yet picked by this point, the Sun is contractually obligated to take them.
** In theory, a 9th ACC team would be in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl if BYU was ineligible for Bowl consideration. BYU is 5-2. Don't think it's happening.

In addition, it is possible for a second ACC team to get to a BCS Bowl, though some projections I've seen suggest that unlikely this year due to picking order of bowls, assuming FSU isn't in the title game.

The Belk bowl meanwhile has been reported to not want the same team a second time.

NOTE: A 7-5 team is NOT guaranteed a bowl slot over a 6-6 team. Bowls cannot select a team two wins worse than another available team (so an 8-4 team can't be gipped for a 6-6 team) but a 7-5 team can be skipped for a 6-6 team. So 7-5 doesn't make it SAFE for Duke.

[wilson]

NOTE: A 7-5 team is NOT guaranteed a bowl slot over a 6-6 team. Bowls cannot select a team two wins worse than another available team (so an 8-4 team can't be gipped for a 6-6 team) but a 7-5 team can be skipped for a 6-6 team. So 7-5 doesn't make it SAFE for Duke.Good points here and throughout the thread.
Bear in mind that if there's a logjam at 6 or 7 wins, Maryland is likely to be one of the teams clogging the works. Call me crazy, but I'd think the folks in the league office (who do play a fairly important role in bowl placement conversations) would much rather have Duke earn a second straight bowl bid than find a spot for the departing Twerps.
Again, I really don't think it's going to come down to any of this, as these would-be doomsday scenarios almost never come to pass. It's just liable to be a very interesting conversation in the coming weeks.

[wilson]

Personally I think the Belk Bowl is a pretty ideal one for us to hope for. It is not so far away that our small fanbase would have a lot of difficulty getting to it, the matchup against the AAC is one that we could be competitive in, and it's typically the week after Christmas when many people have availability to travel. I worry about us going to a bowl in Louisiana and trying to fill the stands to any noticeable capacity.This is a good thought, but remember, the bowls are at least as much about television as they are about ticket sales. The Belk people were smart to place that bowl in Charlotte, because they have their TV contract and a near-annual in on a strong showing from Duke/Wake/State/unc (and even to a lesser extent, Clemson and GA Tech, both within about a 3-hour drive of the game). However, this is the exception to the rule when it comes to lesser bowl games. I don't really think, say, State or carolina would be demonstrably more likely than Duke to travel en masse to Shreveport. The same goes for El Paso...my understanding is that Sun Bowl officials have long since resigned themselves to light crowds and they make their money from ESPN. I've seen more than one very paltry crowd sitting in a snowy West Texas stadium watching Tech play whomever on New Year's Eve afternoon.

[loran16]

This is a good thought, but remember, the bowls are at least as much about television as they are about ticket sales. The Belk people were smart to place that bowl in Charlotte, because they have their TV contract and a near-annual in on a strong showing from Duke/Wake/State/unc (and even to a lesser extent, Clemson and GA Tech, both within about a 3-hour drive of the game). However, this is the exception to the rule when it comes to lesser bowl games. I don't really think, say, State or carolina would be demonstrably more likely than Duke to travel en masse to Shreveport. The same goes for El Paso...my understanding is that Sun Bowl officials have long since resigned themselves to light crowds and they make their money from ESPN. I've seen more than one very paltry crowd sitting in a snowy West Texas stadium watching Tech play whomever on New Year's Eve afternoon.

Remember, Belk took us last year. The Herald Sun beatwriter reported on twitter:

@stevewisemanNC:

@thedevilwolf Don't count on it. I've been told Belk not likely to take Duke 2 years in a row.


Good points here and throughout the thread.
Bear in mind that if there's a logjam at 6 or 7 wins, Maryland is likely to be one of the teams clogging the works. Call me crazy, but I'd think the folks in the league office (who do play a fairly important role in bowl placement conversations) would much rather have Duke earn a second straight bowl bid than find a spot for the departing Twerps.
Again, I really don't think it's going to come down to any of this, as these would-be doomsday scenarios almost never come to pass. It's just liable to be a very interesting conversation in the coming weeks.

This is true, but it's possible for there to be TWO extra teams - that's what the ACC blog on ESPN has.

I think one or two of the 3-3 teams will collapse to make the situation clearer, but we'll see. Duke can only assure itself a bowl by going 8-4, although 7-5 with a win over Wake or UNC likely removes at least one other bowl contender.

[wilson]

Remember, Belk took us last year. The Herald Sun beatwriter reported on twitter:

@stevewisemanNC:


@thedevilwolf Don't count on it. I've been told Belk not likely to take Duke 2 years in a row.Right, I remember. I was in the stadium that night (the coldest live sporting event I've ever attended). My point was less about the Belk Bowl though, and more about the AdvoCareWhatevertheHeck and Sun Bowls. Those bowls, in Shreveport and El Paso respectively, are in my opinion unlikely to choose any ACC team based on an expectation of strong in-person attendance. The bowls aren't prominent enough and the destinations aren't exciting enough to reasonably expect Tobacco Road fans to travel ~1000 miles to Shreveport or ~1800(!!) miles to El Paso. Duke's perceived lack of traveling strength would, in my opinion, be a minor consideration with regard to either of those possible bowls.

[loran16]

Right, I remember. I was in the stadium that night (the coldest live sporting event I've ever attended). My point was less about the Belk Bowl though, and more about the AdvoCareWhatevertheHeck and Sun Bowls. Those bowls, in Shreveport and El Paso respectively, are in my opinion unlikely to choose any ACC team based on an expectation of strong in-person attendance. The bowls aren't prominent enough and the destinations aren't exciting enough to reasonably expect Tobacco Road fans to travel ~1000 miles to Shreveport or ~1800(!!) miles to El Paso. Duke's perceived lack of traveling strength would, in my opinion, be a minor consideration with regard to either of those possible bowls.

True for Shreveport, not true for Sun. Remember, Sun is ACC 4. If we have only 1 BCS bowl, that means it likely will pick VT or Miami, since both are near guaranteed to be 8-4, and an 8-4 or better team cannot be gipped. (Probably VT, as Russell Athletic would prefer Miami duh).

It's also possible for there to be more 8-4 teams, though it is unlikely.

Duke's been projected frequently in the military bowl, which makes sense unless the team is 8-4.

[jimsumner]

Florida State making it to the title game would free up another bowl bid for the ACC.

So, go 'Noles.

[Duvall]

The ACC did not, as the AAC kept all of their bowl slots but the BCS bowl. The ACC has 8 bowl tie ins.

This only applies to the 2013 season, though. Next year the ACC adds a couple of lower bowl games.


In addition, it is possible for a second ACC team to get to a BCS Bowl, though some projections I've seen suggest that unlikely this year due to picking order of bowls, assuming FSU isn't in the title game.


Who has said this? This seems unlikely given the BCS rankings.

[loran16]

Who has said this? This seems unlikely given the BCS rankings.

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2013/10/20/4858004/bowl-game-projections-predictions-2013


If Fresno State or Northern Illinois go unbeaten from here on out, one of them will be in. Each already ranks very well in the projected BCS standings, and Sunday night we could see one of them (likely Fresno) already within a spot or two of the No. 16 spot. If either can reach that ranking without being passed by an AQ-conference champion, it's in. Otherwise, No. 12 is the goal, which is also within reach.

Let's say Fresno State does go undefeated, which now looks more likely, with Wyoming struggling and both Boise State and Utah State losing their starting quarterbacks. That plus the American champion (which looks to be UCF) means the Orange gets the last remaining shot to bring in a big-name school with a national following. It can't take from the Pac-12 or SEC, though, since each will already have two BCS teams, and it likely won't take another ACC team.

[Olympic Fan]

Florida State making it to the title game would free up another bowl bid for the ACC.

So, go 'Noles.

It's not just FSU getting to the title game ... if the ACC puts two in the BCS, that opens up a 10th ACC bid. We did that in 2011 -- Clemson in the Orange ... Va Tech in the Sugar. It could easily happen this year -- if Clemson wins out, the Tigers would be a very attractive BCS team although they have little chance of winning the ACC and playing in the Orange Bowl (FSU would have to lose twice).

But all this concern is needless. The big question is whether Duke gets to six wins. Do that and Duke will be in a bowl -- 100 percent guaranteed. The ACC WILL find spots for all bowl eligible teams.

[Dev11]

It's not just FSU getting to the title game ... if the ACC puts two in the BCS, that opens up a 10th ACC bid. We did that in 2011 -- Clemson in the Orange ... Va Tech in the Sugar. It could easily happen this year -- if Clemson wins out, the Tigers would be a very attractive BCS team although they have little chance of winning the ACC and playing in the Orange Bowl (FSU would have to lose twice).

But all this concern is needless. The big question is whether Duke gets to six wins. Do that and Duke will be in a bowl -- 100 percent guaranteed. The ACC WILL find spots for all bowl eligible teams.

Miami could also be an attractive option for the Orange Bowl, particularly if their one loss happens to a team in the national championship game.

[Duvall]

Miami could also be an attractive option for the Orange Bowl, particularly if their one loss happens to a team in the national championship game.

Well, in that scenario they would have lost to FSU twice.

[Dev11]

Well, in that scenario they would have lost to FSU twice.

Ah, good point. I wasn't sure how the tiebreaker worked between VT and Miami, should Miami beat VT but have a conference loss to FSU while VT is otherwise clean.

[Olympic Fan]

Miami could also be an attractive option for the Orange Bowl, particularly if their one loss happens to a team in the national championship game.

But that scenario is almost impossible. Miami plays FSU in two weeks ... I'm assuming you think FSU will win (since they would have to be in the national title game). But one loss to FSU would still leave Miami as the division champion -- and would mean another game with FSU in the ACC title game.

Now FSU wins that game and they could be in the title game. The Orange Bowl would take the next ACC team -- that could be a 11-2 Miami. But it would more likely be an 11-1 Clemson.

If 1-loss Miami beats FSU in the title game, then Miami gets the Orange Bowl ... but FSU is out of the title game. The question then is whether 1-loss FSU or maybe 1-loss Clemson is the more attractive team for another BCS bowl. By contract, no conference can have more than two BCS teams (a rule put in to limit the SEC from hogging all the spots).

Of course, a lot of this speculation depends on the ACC heavyweights avoiding upsets -- and I'm not sure it would be a big upset if South Carolina knocked off Clemson.

[Olympic Fan]

Ah, good point. I wasn't sure how the tiebreaker worked between VT and Miami, should Miami beat VT but have a conference loss to FSU while VT is otherwise clean.

Ah ... I was a little late.

But just to clarify -- the first tiebreaker is always head-to-head. It's only when there are multiple teams tied (with even head to head records) that things like division record come into play.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Picking up my thoughts from another thread, Loran says a 6-6 team can be chosen over a 7-5 team. I'm guessing he is technically right, but why on earth would a bowl committee choose a less qualified team? Fans and money? Maybe, but I think if they want to put a more respectful game on, and not tick off the league in general, they will leave the 6-6 guys at home.

[wilson]

...I'm not sure it would be a big upset if South Carolina knocked off Clemson.Generally speaking, you're right on target here, because, well...it's Clemson. However, Connor Shaw got hurt pretty badly on Saturday and will be out of action for the Gamecocks for at least a little while. If he's still out for the Clemson game, Clemson's chances start looking a lot better.

[Duvall]

Picking up my thoughts from another thread, Loran says a 6-6 team can be chosen over a 7-5 team. I'm guessing he is technically right, but why on earth would a bowl committee choose a less qualified team? Fans and money? Maybe, but I think if they want to put a more respectful game on, and not tick off the league in general, they will leave the 6-6 guys at home.

There is nothing about the massive scam that is the bowl system that suggests that the hustlers that operate it are interested in a more respectful system. The leagues maybe, but they only have so much pull.

[-bdbd]

It's not just FSU getting to the title game ... if the ACC puts two in the BCS, that opens up a 10th ACC bid. We did that in 2011 -- Clemson in the Orange ... Va Tech in the Sugar. It could easily happen this year -- if Clemson wins out, the Tigers would be a very attractive BCS team although they have little chance of winning the ACC and playing in the Orange Bowl (FSU would have to lose twice).



Olympic is correct. Being in the BCS championship isn't the requirement - the ACC will always have AT LEAST one teaam in the BCS bowls. The Orange Bowl is the default. Though FSU making it to the National Championship game WOULD open up a second slot (for the ACC runner-up in the Orange I guess). [Anybody know that for a fact? If FSU makes the title game, does BCS have to still take another ACC team, presumably in the Oragne, or anywhere else?] But there are many other scenarios that put a second ACC team into a BCS bowl - either Clemson or Miami - regardless of whether FSU makes the national title game.

For Duke's interests we should be rooting against 'bama and Oregon the rest of the way. Though the initial BCS rankings this week have FSU at number two, Oregon is very close behind and is projected to move ahead of the 'noles in the coming weeks due to SOS. Just make sure you root for Bama's and the Duck's opponents the rest of the way! Also, root for other ACC borderline-qualifiers to not get their 6th win - NCSU, Wake, MD.

BTW, one point that I didn't see mentioned earlier - it is the BOWL's themselves, and not the ACC, that do the picking. There are limits to how far you can "skip over" a higher ranked team (such that a bowl could take a 6-6 Syracuse over a 7-5 Duke if they wanted), but in general they'll pick whoever presents the best crowd and match-up to suit their interests. If Duke "only" gets 6 wins, then we will always be sweating out making a bowl until the announcements come out in early-Dec. (smaller schools like Duke and Wake and BC always do) However, I do agree with the poster who pointed out that the ACC won't be looking to do MD any favors (but, ultimately, it isn't their call). That could come into play if they ACC gets a 9th and/or tenth qualifying team, and the ACC has to go out "fishing" for an at-large invite to a bowl (the conference office does get involved in that effort - and I could see them soliciting offers for Duke or Wake before MD). Realistically, Bowls 5 - 9 below are our most likely range of destinations.

Atlantic Coast Conference 2013:

#1 Bowl Championship Series. Automatic berth to a BCS bowl game, preferentially the Discover Orange Bowl.
#2 The Chick-fil-A Bowl versus SEC #5.
#3 The Russell Athletic Bowl versus AAC #1.
#4 The Hyundai Sun Bowl versus Pac-12 #4.
#5 The Belk Bowl versus AAC #2.
#6 The Music City Bowl versus SEC #7.
#7 The AdvoCare V100 Bowl versus SEC #10.
#8 The Military Bowl versus Conference USA #5.
#9 The Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl versus Pac-12 #9 (BYU has an agreement in place to be first selection for Fight Hunger bowl; ACC fills slot only if BYU is not bowl eligible). Edit to add: I think BYU is 5-2 currently.

[Olympic Fan]

BTW, one point that I didn't see mentioned earlier - it is the BOWL's themselves, and not the ACC, that do the picking. There are limits to how far you can "skip over" a higher ranked team (such that a bowl could take a 6-6 Syracuse over a 7-5 Duke if they wanted), but in general they'll pick whoever presents the best crowd and match-up to suit their interests. If Duke "only" gets 6 wins, then we will always be sweating out making a bowl until the announcements come out in early-Dec. (smaller schools like Duke and Wake and BC always do) #7 The AdvoCare V100 Bowl versus SEC #10.

You can sweat if you want to, but there is nothing to sweat -- 6-6 Duke WILL be in a bowl. It might not be a very good one and it might not be a bowl with an annual ACC tie-in, but Duke will be in a bowl -- if the Devils qualify.

The last ACC team to qualify and not earn a bowl bid was Wake Forest in 2001 -- more than a decade ago. That was when the ACC was nine teams and had just five bowl tie-ins (and they still managed to find a sixth bowl bid that year).

One other point -- a lot of you seem to think the bowls have a negative view of Duke. That's not the case. After last year's ticket sales and TV ratings in Charlotte, Duke looks better to the bowls that several other ACC teams (BC and Wake for sure).

* As for the Fight Hunger "conditional" bid, that opens up if either BYU or the Pac 12 can't fill its slot (note the Pac 12 did fail in 2010).

[Dev11]

Olympic is correct. Being in the BCS championship isn't the requirement - the ACC will always have AT LEAST one teaam in the BCS bowls. The Orange Bowl is the default. Though FSU making it to the National Championship game WOULD open up a second slot (for the ACC runner-up in the Orange I guess). [Anybody know that for a fact? If FSU makes the title game, does BCS have to still take another ACC team, presumably in the Oragne, or anywhere else?]

If FSU makes the NCG, the Orange Bowl is not required to replace FSU with another ACC team. There are 8 BCS slots outside the NCG, 5 of which are held for the conference champions from the ACC, SEC, B1G, B12, and PAC, but which are given out to whomever should any of those champions make the NCG.

[Duvall]

If FSU makes the NCG, the Orange Bowl is not required to replace FSU with another ACC team. There are 8 BCS slots outside the NCG, 5 of which are held for the conference champions from the ACC, SEC, B1G, B12, and PAC, but which are given out to whomever should any of those champions make the NCG.

Though next year under the College Football Playoff, the Orange Bowl slot (which might or might not be in the Orange Bowl) would go to another ACC team if the ACC champion were selected for the playoff.

[Duvall]

It's not just FSU getting to the title game ... if the ACC puts two in the BCS, that opens up a 10th ACC bid. We did that in 2011 -- Clemson in the Orange ... Va Tech in the Sugar. It could easily happen this year -- if Clemson wins out, the Tigers would be a very attractive BCS team although they have little chance of winning the ACC and playing in the Orange Bowl (FSU would have to lose twice).

But all this concern is needless. The big question is whether Duke gets to six wins. Do that and Duke will be in a bowl -- 100 percent guaranteed. The ACC WILL find spots for all bowl eligible teams.

Though it is interesting that Maryland could find itself in the position of needing the ACC's help to get to a bowl game this year. Whatever happens, I am sure there will be plenty of complaining.

[BigWayne]

If FSU makes the NCG, the Orange Bowl is not required to replace FSU with another ACC team. There are 8 BCS slots outside the NCG, 5 of which are held for the conference champions from the ACC, SEC, B1G, B12, and PAC, but which are given out to whomever should any of those champions make the NCG.

If FSU makes the NCG, the Orange Bowl is not required to take an ACC team, but is very likely to do so if a team is available that has only lost to teams in the NCG, i.e. Clemson, Miami, or VT. If FSU does not make the NCG, the ACC's hopes of a 2nd BCS team are hurt by the selection order and the other likely auto bids. This year, the Orange picks first after the NCG replacement picks. So in the case that Alabama and Oregon are in the NCG, the Rose and Sugar likely pick another Pac12 and SEC team. Then you have possibly only one free slot available if UCF and Fresno State have auto bids. The Orange will not want two ACC teams in their bowl, so they will grab a B12 or B10 team, or ND if they are eligible.

ACC fans should be rooting for Fresno State to get taken down by SDSU this week and Northern Illinois to get a loss vs. Ball State. Otherwise, one or both of them will likely be ranked high enough to get an auto BCS bid.

[sagegrouse]

There is nothing about the massive scam that is the bowl system that suggests that the hustlers that operate it are interested in a more respectful system. The leagues maybe, but they only have so much pull.

Hustlers or not, the bowls are independent actors, each trying to do the best for itself in terms of attracting a crowd, making some money and -- depending on the links to local sponsors -- drawing more visitors to the sponsoring location. An exciting game would be a plus, because it may help build interest in the following years. But I dunno if any bowl exec really believes he or she can predict how exciting an game will turn out to be.

sagegrouse

[Reilly]

If FSU makes the NCG, the Orange Bowl is not required to take an ACC team, but is very likely to do so if a team is available that has only lost to teams in the NCG, i.e. Clemson, Miami, or VT. If FSU does not make the NCG, the ACC's hopes of a 2nd BCS team are hurt by the selection order and the other likely auto bids. This year, the Orange picks first after the NCG replacement picks. So in the case that Alabama and Oregon are in the NCG, the Rose and Sugar likely pick another Pac12 and SEC team. Then you have possibly only one free slot available if UCF and Fresno State have auto bids. The Orange will not want two ACC teams in their bowl, so they will grab a B12 or B10 team, or ND if they are eligible.

ACC fans should be rooting for Fresno State to get taken down by SDSU this week and Northern Illinois to get a loss vs. Ball State. Otherwise, one or both of them will likely be ranked high enough to get an auto BCS bid.

BigWayne, in the run-up to last year's Belk Bowl bid, I found your thoughts and analysis invaluable when trying to make sense of all the moving parts. It's October 21, and you've identified the flapping butterfly wings of Fresno/SDSU and NIU/Ball State that may create the breeze that will possibly carry Duke to Annapolis .... Thanks.

[SCMatt33]

I think that Duke is in good shape for a bowl should they win another game. Even if they don't get picked for an ACC bowl, there is generally a struggle to fill the last few overall bowl slots and if a team gets left out, it is generally a mediocre team from a non-BCS league. As for selection for ACC bowl games, it's important to remember that it's a team's ACC record, and not overall record that would determine when a team can or can't get bypassed. For example, if Duke and UNC were to both finish 6-6 this year, Duke would have a 2-6 ACC record compared to 4-4 for UNC. Because the rule only allows for a team to get bypassed if it is within one game of the other, no ACC bowl game would be allowed to pick Duke over UNC despite the same overall record.

[wilson]

ACC fans should be rooting for Fresno State to get taken down by SDSU this week and Northern Illinois to get a loss vs. Ball State. Otherwise, one or both of them will likely be ranked high enough to get an auto BCS bid.They're highly unlikely to both get BCS bids. The criteria that provide schools in non-AQ conferences a path to the BCS state that "no more than one such team from the non-AQ group shall earn an automatic berth in any year." (http://www.bcsfootball.org/news/story?id=4819597) One of those teams might sneak a BCS invite, but they won't both get invited.

[Duvall]

They're highly unlikely to both get BCS bids. The criteria that provide schools in non-AQ conferences a path to the BCS state that "no more than one such team from the non-AQ group shall earn an automatic berth in any year." (http://http://www.bcsfootball.org/news/story?id=4819597)One of those teams might sneak a BCS invite, but they won't both get invited.

College football is terrible in so many ways. It's just so rigged.

[wilson]

They're highly unlikely to both get BCS bids. The criteria that provide schools in non-AQ conferences a path to the BCS state that "no more than one such team from the non-AQ group shall earn an automatic berth in any year." (http://www.bcsfootball.org/news/story?id=4819597) One of those teams might sneak a BCS invite, but they won't both get invited.


College football is terrible in so many ways. It's just so rigged.I don't disagree with you, but I'm not sure this is the best case to prove that point. Does anyone really feel like we're missing out because either Ball State or Northern Illinois may be "left out" of the final iteration of the BCS? I know I don't. Any four-loss SEC team would beat either of those teams 9 games out of 10.

[throatybeard]

Duvall, your whining about the system is getting old. God forbid people try to get a school that travels well to their concrete fixture.

We're 5-2. I think this is pretty simple. We have five games left, and it's rather likely that in two of those, VT and Miami will fix our wagon.

The other three are against the other three Old North State schools. If we win one, we sneak into the latter-day too-many-bowls rodeo. If we win two, we look sort of OK. Pretty OK.

If we win three, and we're 8-4, let's have a Duke parade. Mack Brown loved to talk about the "state championship." Whatever. People want to scream and whine about how there are more than seven teams in the conference now. Well, guess what--this year, we have an opportunity to beat the old foes. Let's do it.

[BigWayne]

They're highly unlikely to both get BCS bids. The criteria that provide schools in non-AQ conferences a path to the BCS state that "no more than one such team from the non-AQ group shall earn an automatic berth in any year." (http://www.bcsfootball.org/news/story?id=4819597) One of those teams might sneak a BCS invite, but they won't both get invited.

Only one non-AQ conference team can get an auto bid like you pointed out. The other team in the mix is the lame duck still AQ AAC champion, at this time penciled in as UCF. If Louisville would have run the table, they would have been the pick by the Orange. With FSU or Miami likely being the ACC Champ in the Orange Bowl, no way they take UCF for the opponent.

[BigWayne]

I think that Duke is in good shape for a bowl should they win another game. Even if they don't get picked for an ACC bowl, there is generally a struggle to fill the last few overall bowl slots and if a team gets left out, it is generally a mediocre team from a non-BCS league.

Left out teams since the changes to the bowl lineup for the 2007 season and the main existing eligibility rules have been in place are always from the weakest conferences. Don't have to be completely mediocre, just be from a weak conference that doesn't have the contracts in place. La Tech at 9-3 got left out last year due to lack of contracts and bad negotiating. Note that last year only two bowls were on "other" networks, i.e. not ESPN/ABC. Eligible teams from the big conferences that have ESPN contracts will be in a bowl.

These are the left out teams and their conferences the last few years.

2012
WAC: Louisiana Tech (9-3)
Sun Belt: Middle Tennessee (8-4)

2011
SunBelt -Western Kentucky (7–5)
MAC - Ball State (6–6)

2010
MAC - Temple (8-4)
MAC - Western Michigan (6-6)

2009
SunBelt - LA-Lafayette (6-6)
SunBelt - LA-Monroe (6-6)
Notre Dame (6-6) voluntarily

2008
SunBelt - Arkansas State (6-6)
MAC -Bowling Green (6-6)
SunBelt -Louisiana-Lafayette (6-6)
WAC - San José State (6-6)

[BigWayne]

If we win three, and we're 8-4, let's have a Duke parade.
I like the sound of that and it's certainly within reach. My prediction is that such a parade would lead to El Paso.

[Reilly]

... My prediction is that such a parade would lead to El Paso.

If Duke's going to be partying in El Paso, I say we get the most famous Duke alum of all -- El Paso native Baron Maurice J.L. de Rothschild (nee Mauro Cortez, Jr.) -- to bankroll the affair:

http://www.dukechronicle.com/articles/1998/03/04/prince-pauper

[BigWayne]

BTW - Next year there are now 4 new bowls planned that will serve as homes for the MAC and other weaker conference teams that usually get left out. Despite the addition of new FBS teams the last few years, next year might be the one where we have 5-7 teams in bowls.

[Duvall]

Duvall, your whining about the system is getting old. God forbid people try to get a school that travels well to their concrete fixture.

*shrug*

It's a crummy system. You didn't see the Tampa Bay Rays getting passed over for the Yankees because they have a smaller fanbase, or Kentucky wedging their way into last year's NCAAs. Every other team sport picks its postseason field based on team performance, whether it's winning your division or conference or a panel's evaluation of your body of work. But in college football, potential ticket sales are considered a legitimate reason for a bowl to take a worse team over a better one, and people are actually okay with this.

Duke benefits more from the rigged game than it is hurt, by virtue of its ACC ties. But it's still rigged.

[Dev11]

*shrug*

It's a crummy system. You didn't see the Tampa Bay Rays getting passed over for the Yankees because they have a smaller fanbase, or Kentucky wedging their way into last year's NCAAs. Every other team sport picks its postseason field based on team performance, whether it's winning your division or conference or a panel's evaluation of your body of work. But in college football, potential ticket sales are considered a legitimate reason for a bowl to take a worse team over a better one, and people are actually okay with this.

Duke benefits more from the rigged game than it is hurt, by virtue of its ACC ties. But it's still rigged.

That's true, but ultimately the bowls are "postseason" rather than "playoffs." Currently, the BCS does try to get the 2 best teams, regardless of ticket sales, conference affiliation, etc, and that is the only "playoffs" in college football. The NCAA tournament has 68 teams in the playoffs competing for the championship.

[nocilla]

I have seen it repeated several times, as most of you probably have, that Duke has never been to consecutive Bowls. So I have a question for our local historians; Why not?

In browsing our seasonal history, there are several occasions where we would have qualified for a Bowl but didn't go to one. I assume Bowl qualifiers have changed a few times over the years. And I do realize that there are more Bowls today than there used to be, so is that the main reason? Was it common 25 years ago for good teams to not go Bowling? Were we not invited to Bowls most of those years or did we chose to not go to some of them? Just curious.

Here is a list of records by season where we met todays Bowl standards in consecutive seasons.

1989 8-4 All-American Bowl (L)
1988 7-3-1

1982 6-5
1981 6-5

1971 6-5
1970 6-5

1962 8-2
1961 7-3
1960 8-3 Cotton Bowl (W)

1955 7-2-1
1954 8-2-1 Orange Bowl (W)
1953 7-2-1
1952 8-2

1949 7-3
1948 6-3

1945 6-2
1944 6-4 Sugar Bowl (W)
1943 8-1

1941 9-1 Rose Bowl (L)
1940 7-2
1939 8-1
1938 9-1 Rose Bowl (L)
1937 7-2-1
1936 9-1
1935 8-2
1934 7-2
1933 9-1
1932 7-3

[jimsumner]

I have seen it repeated several times, as most of you probably have, that Duke has never been to consecutive Bowls. So I have a question for our local historians; Why not?

In browsing our seasonal history, there are several occasions where we would have qualified for a Bowl but didn't go to one. I assume Bowl qualifiers have changed a few times over the years. And I do realize that there are more Bowls today than there used to be, so is that the main reason? Was it common 25 years ago for good teams to not go Bowling? Were we not invited to Bowls most of those years or did we chose to not go to some of them? Just curious.

Here is a list of records by season where we met todays Bowl standards in consecutive seasons.

1989 8-4 All-American Bowl (L)
1988 7-3-1

1982 6-5
1981 6-5

1971 6-5
1970 6-5

1962 8-2
1961 7-3
1960 8-3 Cotton Bowl (W)

1955 7-2-1
1954 8-2-1 Orange Bowl (W)
1953 7-2-1
1952 8-2

1949 7-3
1948 6-3

1945 6-2
1944 6-4 Sugar Bowl (W)
1943 8-1

1941 9-1 Rose Bowl (L)
1940 7-2
1939 8-1
1938 9-1 Rose Bowl (L)
1937 7-2-1
1936 9-1
1935 8-2
1934 7-2
1933 9-1
1932 7-3

There weren't a lot of bowl games during Duke's glory days and Duke only wanted to play in the Rose, Cotton, Sugar or Orange bowls. Lesser games were deemed not worth the effort.

[nocilla]

There weren't a lot of bowl games during Duke's glory days and Duke only wanted to play in the Rose, Cotton, Sugar or Orange bowls. Lesser games were deemed not worth the effort.

So how many times did Duke turn down Bowl invitations? And was this common among good football programs?

[Highlander]

I have seen it repeated several times, as most of you probably have, that Duke has never been to consecutive Bowls. So I have a question for our local historians; Why not?

In browsing our seasonal history, there are several occasions where we would have qualified for a Bowl but didn't go to one. I assume Bowl qualifiers have changed a few times over the years. And I do realize that there are more Bowls today than there used to be, so is that the main reason? Was it common 25 years ago for good teams to not go Bowling? Were we not invited to Bowls most of those years or did we chose to not go to some of them? Just curious.

Here is a list of records by season where we met todays Bowl standards in consecutive seasons.

1989 8-4 All-American Bowl (L)
1988 7-3-1

1982 6-5
1981 6-5

1971 6-5
1970 6-5

1962 8-2
1961 7-3
1960 8-3 Cotton Bowl (W)

1955 7-2-1
1954 8-2-1 Orange Bowl (W)
1953 7-2-1
1952 8-2

1949 7-3
1948 6-3

1945 6-2
1944 6-4 Sugar Bowl (W)
1943 8-1

1941 9-1 Rose Bowl (L)
1940 7-2
1939 8-1
1938 9-1 Rose Bowl (L)
1937 7-2-1
1936 9-1
1935 8-2
1934 7-2
1933 9-1
1932 7-3

I believe that in the 40's and 50's, Duke had a policy of only accepting bowl bids from "major" bowls. At the time, bowls had very few (if any) conference tie-ins, and the bowls could pretty much take whoever they wanted. And the bids didn't all go out at the same time, so if Duke accepted a bid from, say, the Gator Bowl, they would take themselves out of the running for a Sugar or Rose Bowl. And the Rose Bowl was the de facto NC game. Because Duke was a football powerhouse, they saw bids to some of the mid-tier bowls much the same way we'd view an invite to the postseason NIT in Basketball; it was beneath their stature. Let that sink in a minute, and you'll get a sense for how much things have changed in the last 50 years.

Secondly, the number of bowls in the 50's and 60's was much lower than today, so you were not guaranteed a bowl game regardless of your record. The number of bowls grew through the latter half of the century, but still a winning record did not guarantee you a bowl game. All your winning record meant was that you were bowl eligible. That rule was actually created to prevent bowl teams from taking big time draws with losing records over schools with smaller fanbases who had winning records. In fact, I can remember that as late as 1994/1995 Duke was sweating an invite with 7 wins, and felt like they really needed to get to 8 wins to be assured of a bowl bid.

Nowadays, the number of bowl games is so large that most every 6-6 team gets an invite somewhere, and the conference tie-ins guarantee invites for most of the BCS schools who reach that mark.

[sagegrouse]

There weren't a lot of bowl games during Duke's glory days and Duke only wanted to play in the Rose, Cotton, Sugar or Orange bowls. Lesser games were deemed not worth the effort.


So how many times did Duke turn down Bowl invitations? And was this common among good football programs?

Duke's policy up through the 1960s was only to accept bids from the four major bowls (Rose, Sugar, Orange and Cotton). I know we turned down a Gator Bowl bid in 1962 after an 8-2 season that was the best of the other bowls). Also, you missed one Duke Orange Bowl game, which was January 1, 1958. We got lost to powerful Oklahoma, 48-21, in a game that was close after three quarters. Duke finished 2nd in the ACC that year to NC State (I don't know why the Wuffies did not get the bowl bid). Duke won or tied for ACC champs the first three years of the conference and then again won three in a row from 1960-1962. Six ACC championships equaled only two bowls -- bowls were really a special accomplishment back in the day.

sagegrouse

[jimsumner]

Duke's policy up through the 1960s was only to accept bids from the four major bowls (Rose, Sugar, Orange and Cotton). I know we turned down a Gator Bowl bid in 1962 after an 8-2 season that was the best of the other bowls). Also, you missed one Duke Orange Bowl game, which was January 1, 1958. We got lost to powerful Oklahoma, 48-21, in a game that was close after three quarters. Duke finished 2nd in the ACC that year to NC State (I don't know why the Wuffies did not get the bowl bid). Duke won or tied for ACC champs the first three years of the conference and then again won three in a row from 1960-1962. Six ACC championships equaled only two bowls -- bowls were really a special accomplishment back in the day.

sagegrouse

State was on probation for the Jackie Moreland recruiting scandal, a ban that extended to all sports.

Spurrier's second Duke team as recently as 1988 went 7-3-1 and missed out.

This might shed some insight on the early 1960s.

http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=4200&ATCLID=620497

[-bdbd]

I like the sound of that and it's certainly within reach. My prediction is that such a parade would lead to El Paso.

Wow - I'd think DUMB would tire out before marching 1/4 of the way there!

[JasonEvans]

*shrug*

It's a crummy system. You didn't see the Tampa Bay Rays getting passed over for the Yankees because they have a smaller fanbase, or Kentucky wedging their way into last year's NCAAs. Every other team sport picks its postseason field based on team performance, whether it's winning your division or conference or a panel's evaluation of your body of work. But in college football, potential ticket sales are considered a legitimate reason for a bowl to take a worse team over a better one, and people are actually okay with this.

Duke benefits more from the rigged game than it is hurt, by virtue of its ACC ties. But it's still rigged.

It is worth noting that the NIT and CBI postseason college basketball tournaments both take teams with a lesser record who come from more established programs with a more fervent fan base. A 16-15 ACC school is almost always going to get an invite to one of these tournaments; a 19-12 team from a non-BCS conference could easily be left at home.

-Jason "of course, it is also worth noting that it is often a lot harder to go 16-15 in the ACC than it is to go 19-12 in a non-BCS league" Evans

[OldPhiKap]

Happily, bttt.

We have a bye week, then:

Host State
Host Miami
@ Wake
@ the gates of Hell

The win over the Hokies raises our story, and more folks may be starting to follow the dream in Durham. It would be great if we can pull off a headline win against Miami or the Heels, to make the selection committees want to have The Exciting Story in the conference.

Great job by the team and coaches to get us to this spot-- confidently talking about which bowl may take us before Halloween instead of wondering if we would make a bowl going into the last game or two of the season. (Or, in the dark years, knowing we were already eliminated by now).

[loran16]

Happily, bttt.

We have a bye week, then:

Host State
Host Miami
@ Wake
@ the gates of Hell

The win over the Hokies raises our story, and more folks may be starting to follow the dream in Durham. It would be great if we can pull off a headline win against Miami or the Heels, to make the selection committees want to have The Exciting Story in the conference.

Great job by the team and coaches to get us to this spot-- confidently talking about which bowl may take us before Halloween instead of wondering if we would make a bowl going into the last game or two of the season. (Or, in the dark years, knowing we were already eliminated by now).

If you follow Sagarin's predictor, the lines for Duke's remaining 4 games are:
Duke -12 State
Miami -3 Duke
Duke -4 Wake
UNC -1 Duke

In other words, 4 winnable games, 1 absolutely should win, and 1 probable win. And we already have 6 wins.

[uh_no]

If you follow Sagarin's predictor, the lines for Duke's remaining 4 games are:
Duke -12 State
Miami -3 Duke
Duke -4 Wake
UNC -1 Duke

In other words, 4 winnable games, 1 absolutely should win, and 1 probable win. And we already have 6 wins.

we're only -3 to miami? yeesh.

i'd love it to happen, but i'm not that confident....yet :)

[loran16]

we're only -3 to miami? yeesh.

i'd love it to happen, but i'm not that confident....yet :)

Home Game. At a neutral field, it has Miami -6.

[davekay1971]

If you follow Sagarin's predictor, the lines for Duke's remaining 4 games are:
Duke -12 State
Miami -3 Duke
Duke -4 Wake
UNC -1 Duke

In other words, 4 winnable games, 1 absolutely should win, and 1 probable win. And we already have 6 wins.

Agreed, but not sure whether Wake or UNC is more probable. We should beat State...they are in free fall right now, playing without confidence or pride. Miami is a tall task, despite the closeness of their last two games. They have a formidable run game that they've gone to late in games, with very good results. Wake is better right now than people seem to realize. They dominated State and were in position to win at Miami. They have the key Jim Grobe features of a reliable quarterback and run game, one real playmaker, and a respectable defense. And we're playing at Wake, which is a consistently frustrating experience. UNC is more of a wildcard. They have athleticism but are horrendously inconsistent. If they get fired up for the Duke game as a chance to redeem what is shaping up to be a lousy season, they could be tough. But, realistically, Duke is a better team than Carolina this season.

2-2 down the stretch would be good. 3-1 and undisputed North Carolina state champions would be awesome. 4-0...unbelievable...but does anyone doubt this morning whether Duke CAN do it?

[CameronBlue]

We're 5-2. I think this is pretty simple. We have five games left, and it's rather likely that in two of those, VT and Miami will fix our wagon.

Wagon won't broke.

[throatybeard]

Wagon won't broke.

I have died of dysentery.

[uh_no]

I have died of dysentery.

R.I.P.

that's two top posters in as many days.

[loran16]

Agreed, but not sure whether Wake or UNC is more probable. We should beat State...they are in free fall right now, playing without confidence or pride. Miami is a tall task, despite the closeness of their last two games. They have a formidable run game that they've gone to late in games, with very good results. Wake is better right now than people seem to realize. They dominated State and were in position to win at Miami. They have the key Jim Grobe features of a reliable quarterback and run game, one real playmaker, and a respectable defense. And we're playing at Wake, which is a consistently frustrating experience. UNC is more of a wildcard. They have athleticism but are horrendously inconsistent. If they get fired up for the Duke game as a chance to redeem what is shaping up to be a lousy season, they could be tough. But, realistically, Duke is a better team than Carolina this season.

2-2 down the stretch would be good. 3-1 and undisputed North Carolina state champions would be awesome. 4-0...unbelievable...but does anyone doubt this morning whether Duke CAN do it?

Wake is more probable. Remember, UNC also held Miami to basically needing a last second score to win. Meanwhile, Wake's wins are against:
Presbyterian (1-AA)
@ 3-5 Army
Home vs NC State - a bad team with a bad backup QB
Home vs a MD team with an injured QB and with both of their star WRs injured, who had just needed a UVA missed FG to win at Maryland by 1 point.

Wake is still a very mediocre team. UNC just faced a ton of tough teams up front.

[OldPhiKap]

R.I.P.

that's two top posters in as many days.

Literally.

[Olympic Fan]

Wake is more probable. Remember, UNC also held Miami to basically needing a last second score to win. Meanwhile, Wake's wins are against:
Presbyterian (1-AA)
@ 3-5 Army
Home vs NC State - a bad team with a bad backup QB
Home vs a MD team with an injured QB and with both of their star WRs injured, who had just needed a UVA missed FG to win at Maryland by 1 point.

Wake is still a very mediocre team. UNC just faced a ton of tough teams up front.

And how did that Wake-Miami game go Saturday?

(And remember, UNC took Miami to the wire at home; Wake did it on the road).

Think they are very comparable teams right now. Both UNC and Wake had some issues in September ... both are playing MUCH better right now.

[75Crazie]

All the remaining regular-season games are winnable.

All the remaining regular-season games are losable.

Zero chickens counted as yet.

[budwom]

Yup, Wake is rapidly improving, should've beaten Miami yesterday. They are most definitely not a gimmie.

[BigWayne]

All the remaining regular-season games are winnable.

All the remaining regular-season games are losable.

Zero chickens counted as yet.

Yep, and if you ever raised chickens, you know that a hatched chicken is like a halftime lead. The work is not done yet.

[loran16]

All the remaining regular-season games are winnable.

All the remaining regular-season games are losable.

Zero chickens counted as yet.

Advantage Duke: Bowl Eligible with all the chickens still there to roost.

[wilson]

There's a fresh round of bowl projections out today. Two projectors who last week had us on the outside looking in now have us in: Mark Schlabach (http://espn.go.com/college-football/bowls/projections) now has us pegged for the Belk Bowl vs. Houston, though that would seem to expose his lack of intimate knowledge of the situation since, as noted earlier in this thread, the Belk is unlikely to select us in two straight years. Schlabach's ESPN colleague (same link) has moved us from the Military Bowl last week to a date with Ole Miss in the Music City Bowl this week. That would be a very fun bowl trip IMO...a good test against an SEC team, and Nashville is great fun.
Jerry Palm at CBS, another projector who had Duke out of the mix last week, now has the Devils slotted for the Military Bowl (http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions) vs. North Texas.

[hurleyfor3]

All the remaining regular-season games are winnable.

All the remaining regular-season games are losable.

Zero chickens counted as yet.

We'll have to do a better job of scoring the football than we did against VPI.

[johnb]

If you follow Sagarin's predictor, the lines for Duke's remaining 4 games are:
Duke -12 State
Miami -3 Duke
Duke -4 Wake
UNC -1 Duke

In other words, 4 winnable games, 1 absolutely should win, and 1 probable win. And we already have 6 wins.

a field goal between us and Miami but two touchdowns between us and state? even with home field differences, it seems unlikely.

but so was yesterday.

[devildeac]

I have died of dysentery.

Try this:

http://bodyandhealth.canada.com/channel_condition_info_details.asp?disease_id=156&channel_id=1020&relation_id=10884

[devildeac]

We'll have to do a better job of scoring the football than we did against VPI.

Absolutely:rolleyes:;).

[sue71, esq]

This one (http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2013/10/27/5034136/bowl-game-projections-predictions-2013-alabama-oregon-fsu) has the Independence Bowl (http://advocarev100bowl.org/).

[ricks68]

Literally.

Where do you get all of your cleverness?;)

ricks

[Devil in the Blue Dress]

Where do you get all of your cleverness?;)

ricks
He's a Duke graduate.;)

[OldPhiKap]

Where do you get all of your cleverness?;)

ricks

Clean living, and plenty of naps.


He's a Duke graduate.;)

That's where I learned the above-referenced traits. Yup.

[Tappan Zee Devil]

Clean living, and plenty of naps.

.

Not my memory of Phi Kaps :)

[OldPhiKap]

Not my memory of Phi Kaps :)

What is this "memory" of which you speak?

[throatybeard]

If we're in the Sun Bowl, how many Duke people show up? Two grand, max? That's a bowl with a proud history, but not one that's good to have an smallish eastern school in.

[ForkFondler]

If we're in the Sun Bowl, how many Duke people show up? Two grand, max? That's a bowl with a proud history, but not one that's good to have an smallish eastern school in.

Arizona State would be the home team, presumably.

[Tappan Zee Devil]

What is this "memory" of which you speak?

Well, back in the late 60s, I was in an independent house that shared a quad with the Phi Kaps, so we had an excellent opportunity to observe and form memories :)

[duke09hms]

If we're in the Sun Bowl, how many Duke people show up? Two grand, max? That's a bowl with a proud history, but not one that's good to have an smallish eastern school in.

Hell, I'm in! And bringin a couple!

[duke09hms]

But yea unless we cant get make the Russell Athletic Bowl, Im hoping for the Music City Bowl in Nashville.

Sun Bowl is tough to travel to, Belk likely wont take us again, and Shreveport, LA for the V100/Independence Bowl is hard to get to.
Military Bowl in DC is a nice destination but disappointing after starting 6-2.

Besides Duke winning out, I guess the main thing is to root for Clemson, FSU, and Miami to win out, except against us on 11/16, to make sure the ACC earns 2 BCS bids. Then root against GT and VT all the way.

[Reilly]

...Zero chickens counted as yet.

We beat the chickens 13-10 yesterday, so you can count one of them.

[Reilly]

... plenty of naps. ... That's where I learned the above-referenced trait ...

So you had a room w/ one of those steam radiators, too? Coma-inducing ....

[wilson]

ESPN's ACC football blogger, Heather Dinich, has her weekly bowl projections up, and for the second straight week, she's got us slated for the Belk Bowl. Perhaps she knows something we don't about ACC bowl possibilities; her insights tend to be pretty solid.
http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/62346/acc-bowl-projections-week-9-3

[OldPhiKap]

Well, back in the late 60s, I was in an independent house that shared a quad with the Phi Kaps, so we had an excellent opportunity to observe and form memories :)

Observe, form, and "retain" are three different things. As Meat Loaf would say, two out of three ain't bad!


Hell, I'm in! And bringin a couple!

I am in anywhere, anytime. Lurking family posters, I will meet you there!


So you had a room w/ one of those steam radiators, too? Coma-inducing ....

Lived in Wilson, what a paradise. Single room with suite bathroom. Great bench. Wonderful ground-level section. Happy days.

[duke09hms]

ESPN's ACC football blogger, Heather Dinich, has her weekly bowl projections up, and for the second straight week, she's got us slated for the Belk Bowl. Perhaps she knows something we don't about ACC bowl possibilities; her insights tend to be pretty solid.
http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/62346/acc-bowl-projections-week-9-3

Last week, I read from a couple sources that the Belk Bowl won't take Duke again in consecutive years. Though perusal of recent years indicates they took UNC in 08, 09 and UVA in 02, 03. Anyone else see this too?

From a selfish fan viewpoint, I'm also hoping for a different location for vacation purposes.

[throatybeard]

ESPN's ACC football blogger, Heather Dinich, has her weekly bowl projections up, and for the second straight week, she's got us slated for the Belk Bowl. Perhaps she knows something we don't about ACC bowl possibilities; her insights tend to be pretty solid.
http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/62346/acc-bowl-projections-week-9-3

Yes--Dinich plays close attention. I'm aware of the CW that says Belk doesn't want us twice, but she's deliberate enough that she must have a reason for saying that.

I'm rooting for Music City. I can hit that on my way back to the Midwest from Christmas.

[OldPhiKap]

I was at the Belk last year, and thought we had a good crowd (bigger than Cincy) despite the frigid cold.

I can understand the desire for different teams, but I would like to think we turned out enough for them to at least want us. Having said that, if we get selected by a higher bowl -- so be it.

Re: Music City Bowl -- Nashville is a fun city, I have first round at Tootsie's Orchid Lounge. May even bring a guitar.

[throatybeard]

I was at the Belk last year, and thought we had a good crowd (bigger than Cincy) despite the frigid cold.


Pffffft. "Frigid cold?" That's beyond absurd.

It was 40F. I wore a turtle and a Duke shell. That's frigid?

[OldPhiKap]

Pffffft. "Frigid cold?" That's beyond absurd.

It was 40F. I wore a turtle and a Duke shell. That's frigid?

For a guy like me that grew up in New England? No.

For my son who was born and raised in the South? Yeah, extremely unpleasant.

I went to our bowl game in Tampa 1/2/94 -- that is my preference if anyone is asking. Mid-70's and sunny skies.

The main reason I went to Duke as opposed to an Ivy: cold weather sucks. For better or worse, that was my ultimate reason. And have never regretted it.

[throatybeard]

For a guy like me that grew up in New England? No.

For my son who was born and raised in the South? Yeah, extremely unpleasant.

I grew up south of Atlanta. I'd advise that some sort of sane perspective might be useful.

[OldPhiKap]

I grew up south of Atlanta. I'd advise that some sort of sane perspective might be useful.

Yes, but you have a throaty beard. My son is not so hirsute.

If you were comfortable at the end of that game, so be it. I was not. My son was miserable. Not saying it was right or wrong -- just saying it was.

And I am all for the "cold could be worse" self flagellation -- I actually did walk to school in the snow, and yes I had big hills both coming and going. It sucked. I moved South. Never left, almost thirty years later.

Again, I am glad the Belk Bowl picked Duke last year. If we are there again, I will be there. it is a lot closer than many of the other options. But growing up going to Giants games in snowstorms, I am LONG past enjoying games in the cold. I understand that others may differ, no drama there.

[duke09hms]

Yes, but you have a throaty beard. My son is not so hirsute.

If you were comfortable at the end of that game, so be it. I was not. My son was miserable. Not saying it was right or wrong -- just saying it was.

And I am all for the "cold could be worse" self flagellation -- I actually did walk to school in the snow, and yes I had big hills both coming and going. It sucked. I moved South. Never left, almost thirty years later.

Again, I am glad the Belk Bowl picked Duke last year. If we are there again, I will be there. it is a lot closer than many of the other options. But growing up going to Giants games in snowstorms, I am LONG past enjoying games in the cold. I understand that others may differ, no drama there.

Sorry, I don't mean to be rude, but if it's that cold, why don't people just wear more layers? I mean, it wasn't like it was below freezing. Right, like these days, people can check the weather on all sorts of devices and layer up. I was in a Duke FB tee, hoodie, then Thad #9 jersey. Thought that was sufficient but couldve easily added more if it was cold.

[throatybeard]

Sorry, I don't mean to be rude, but if it's that cold, why don't people just wear more layers? I mean, it wasn't like it was below freezing. Right, like these days, people can check the weather on all sorts of devices and layer up. I was in a Duke FB tee, hoodie, then Thad #9 jersey. Thought that was sufficient but could've easily added more if it was cold.

Exactly. If you can't dress for 40F, you can't dress. Pretty much, with adaptations, this species can handle in between 0F and 100F. Beyond those threatens life. If you can't survive 40F, which is near the middle of that...

...yeah, buy some clothes. Like I said, I grew up south of Atlanta. I'm capable of handling 40F temperatures when I'm not naked. The Belk Bowl was far, far from an inhospitable situation.

[OldPhiKap]

Sorry, I don't mean to be rude, but if it's that cold, why don't people just wear more layers? I mean, it wasn't like it was below freezing. Right, like these days, people can check the weather on all sorts of devices and layer up. I was in a Duke FB tee, hoodie, then Thad #9 jersey. Thought that was sufficient but couldve easily added more if it was cold.

No offense taken, but I assume you don't have a young child.

I have been to two Duke bowl games, one in Florida on a mid-70's afternoon in shorts, and one in a mid-40's/upper 30's breezy evening after dark with numerous layers. I have a preference. No offense to those who do not.

In the world of bowls, warmer > colder. Just the way it is.

[jjasper0729]

No offense taken, but I assume you don't have a young child.

I have been to two Duke bowl games, one in Florida on a mid-70's afternoon in shorts, and one in a mid-40's/upper 30's breezy evening after dark with numerous layers. I have a preference. No offense to those who do not.

In the world of bowls, warmer > colder. Just the way it is.

Going to have to agree. I'd prefer something much warmer. I (and my 12 year old son) had multiple layers and blankets on last year in Charlotte and the afternoon wasn't too bad, but once the sun went down, it got a bit frigid. I much preferred Tampa (though I didn't have the 12 year old then). At this point, I'm good for whatever is going to be easy to get to. Sun bowl isn't going to be for me, but Nashville would work and Charlotte and if it's one of the Florida ones, I'd jump at that.

[wilson]

Pffffft. "Frigid cold?" That's beyond absurd.

It was 40F. I wore a turtle and a Duke shell. That's frigid?I was there too, and it was colder than that...into the 20s by game's end. You can still dress for those temps, but it was decidedly not just throw on a sweatshirt weather: http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KCLT/2012/12/28/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Charlotte&req_state=NC&req_statename=North+Carolina

[sagegrouse]

No offense taken, but I assume you don't have a young child.

I have been to two Duke bowl games, one in Florida on a mid-70's afternoon in shorts, and one in a mid-40's/upper 30's breezy evening after dark with numerous layers. I have a preference. No offense to those who do not.

In the world of bowls, warmer > colder. Just the way it is.

We can probably assume that you are NOT scheming about how to get to the Super Bowl in metro New York February 2, 2014.

sage

[devildeac]

I was at the Belk last year, and thought we had a good crowd (bigger than Cincy) despite the frigid cold.

I can understand the desire for different teams, but I would like to think we turned out enough for them to at least want us. Having said that, if we get selected by a higher bowl -- so be it.

Re: Music City Bowl -- Nashville is a fun city, I have first round at Tootsie's Orchid Lounge. May even bring a guitar.

I'll bring my 2010 National Championship pint glass. And ear plugs. (kidding, kidding;))

[gus]

No offense taken, but I assume you don't have a young child.

As a baby, my parents would let my brother and me nap in a stroller outside, in the winter. In Sweden. Kids can take the cold.

[allenmurray]

I was there too, and it was colder than that...into the 20s by game's end. You can still dress for those temps, but it was decidedly not just throw on a sweatshirt weather: http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KCLT/2012/12/28/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Charlotte&req_state=NC&req_statename=North+Carolina

It was cold - just as the National Weather Service had predicted. It was also in December, a time of year well known for chilly temperatures. Often the games in early September feature temperatures in the upper 90s. If I came to one of those games in a heavy coat and then complained I was hot people would laugh at me. Coming to a game in late December when the forecast predicted temperatures below freezing, and then complaining of being cold, seems a bit silly.

[wilson]

It was cold - just as the National Weather Service had predicted. It was also in December, a time of year well known for chilly temperatures. Often the games in early September feature temperatures in the upper 90s. If I came to one of those games in a heavy coat and then complained I was hot people would laugh at me. Coming to a game in late December when the forecast predicted temperatures below freezing, and then complaining of being cold, seems a bit silly.I totally agree...I know I bundled the heck up for the Belk Bowl, and I managed to stay warm all night. I just wanted to point out that it was in fact quite cold, significantly colder than 40 (especially as the night wore on after an 8 pm kickoff). I guess we're not all as tough as throaty, though.

[devildeac]

http://www.llbean.com/llb/shop/26?nav=gnro-hp#/llb/shop/506979?nav=ln-26&page=long-underwear-amp-base-layer

[Dev11]

If we're in the Sun Bowl, how many Duke people show up? Two grand, max? That's a bowl with a proud history, but not one that's good to have an smallish eastern school in.

Road trip from central Colorado is only about 9-10 hours. I'm in.

[wilson]

The Sun Bowl, it would seem, will pretty much always have the above attendance challenge, given that El Paso isn't close to anything (even a decent-sized airport). A quick check of the most recent Sun Bowls shows that South Florida, Pitt, Stanford, Miami, and Georgia Tech (twice) have participated in the last few games. Even the "close" teams aren't all that close. In 2004, Arizona State traveled a relatively easy ~380 miles to get to the game, but since then, the closest participant has been the University of Oklahoma, which is over 700 miles away. Most fans presumably won't drive that far to go to a middle-of-the-road bowl game, and the nearest major airport is in Phoenix, requiring a 6-hour drive to El Paso after you land.
So I really don't think the Sun Bowl is making decisions based primarily on hoped-for gate receipts. The value of the TV contract and the relatively modest team payouts don't require a stadium teeming with deep-pocketed fans. I'd think that many attendees would simply be locals who want to see a competitive game between major(ish) college football teams, or who are simply looking for something to do in El Paso. Recent history certainly would seem to indicate that.

[hurleyfor3]

ELP has an airport, you know. I've flown into it. More than once. Nonstop from ORD, even. And the next closest airport is ABQ, barely three hours.

Anyway, I'd probably make the trip myself. I-25 between Pueblo and Santa Fe is one of my three favorite stretches of Interstate in the country. The straight shot down 285 is nice too.

[sagegrouse]

ELP has an airport, you know. I've flown into it. More than once. Nonstop from ORD, even. And the next closest airport is ABQ, barely three hours.

Anyway, I'd probably make the trip myself. I-25 between Pueblo and Santa Fe is one of my three favorite stretches of Interstate in the country. The straight shot down 285 is nice too.

I agree, El Paso is accessible for Coloradans. I may be deluged with visiting skiers that week, which would keep me on the slopes instead of the stands.

And, since no one else has said it, I have a comment on the city across the Rio Grande from El Paso: "I don't think Juarez nightlife is attractive as it used to be."

sagegrouse

[Dev11]

ELP has an airport, you know. I've flown into it. More than once. Nonstop from ORD, even. And the next closest airport is ABQ, barely three hours.

Anyway, I'd probably make the trip myself. I-25 between Pueblo and Santa Fe is one of my three favorite stretches of Interstate in the country. The straight shot down 285 is nice too.

Our caravan is going to be really imposing upon the open, freezing highways of New Mexico.

[jimsumner]

As a baby, my parents would let my brother and me nap in a stroller outside, in the winter. In Sweden. Kids can take the cold.

Winter in Sweden? You can also take the dark.

[BigWayne]

The Sun Bowl, it would seem, will pretty much always have the above attendance challenge, given that El Paso isn't close to anything (even a decent-sized airport). A quick check of the most recent Sun Bowls shows that South Florida, Pitt, Stanford, Miami, and Georgia Tech (twice) have participated in the last few games. Even the "close" teams aren't all that close. In 2004, Arizona State traveled a relatively easy ~380 miles to get to the game, but since then, the closest participant has been the University of Oklahoma, which is over 700 miles away. Most fans presumably won't drive that far to go to a middle-of-the-road bowl game, and the nearest major airport is in Phoenix, requiring a 6-hour drive to El Paso after you land.
So I really don't think the Sun Bowl is making decisions based primarily on hoped-for gate receipts. The value of the TV contract and the relatively modest team payouts don't require a stadium teeming with deep-pocketed fans. I'd think that many attendees would simply be locals who want to see a competitive game between major(ish) college football teams, or who are simply looking for something to do in El Paso. Recent history certainly would seem to indicate that.

Delta can fly you to El Paso non-stop from Atlanta.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

I've been to our Bowl games in Tampa and Charlotte, and I've been to Superbowls in Miami (V) and New Orleans (VI). I'm rooting for the Russell Athletic Bowl in Orlando this year. Warm is definitely better than cold. :cool: But best of all, WE'RE GOING TO A BOWL GAME!

[Indoor66]

Exactly. If you can't dress for 40F, you can't dress. Pretty much, with adaptations, this species can handle in between 0F and 100F. Beyond those threatens life. If you can't survive 40F, which is near the middle of that...

...yeah, buy some clothes. Like I said, I grew up south of Atlanta. I'm capable of handling 40F temperatures when I'm not naked. The Belk Bowl was far, far from an inhospitable situation.

But some of us are old and live where it is cold when it is 55°!

[-bdbd]

I've been to our Bowl games in Tampa and Charlotte, and I've been to Superbowls in Miami (V) and New Orleans (VI). I'm rooting for the Russell Athletic Bowl in Orlando this year. Warm is definitely better than cold. :cool: But best of all, WE'RE GOING TO A BOWL GAME!

^ x2! Wahoo!

I too was in Tampa last time, and then Belk last year. Warmer is definitely better. ANY bowl is something to be grateful for though!

Of those within our realistic grasp - I'm eliminating BCS (yeah, I know some will argue that one...) and Paech (hard for me to say "Chick-fil-A Bowl"), as those seem very likely headed to FSU, Miami and Clemson. But of the rest, my druthers are:
Russell Athletic (yeah Orlando - warm and Mickey is there for the kids)
Belk (easier for most of us to get to, would have good attendance, and I have many friends there)
Sun Bowl (sounds relatively warm to me!)
Music City (fun destination)
Military (also coinvenient for many Dukies, and near where I live, fun area with options for stuff to do)
Kraft (gotta love Frisco, but if we slip that far it'll be b/c we lost out the last four)
Shreveport Bowl (WHY is that destination considered a "reward"??)
Pinstripes (fun destination, albeit cold, cold, cold)

[BlueDevilinNYC]

^
Kraft (gotta love Frisco, but if we slip that far it'll be b/c we lost out the last four)
...
Pinstripes (fun destination, albeit cold, cold, cold)


Pinstripe Bowl is "AAC" vs Big Twelve this year. ACC starts its partnership with them in 2014. And Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl is Pac 12 vs BYU, whom accepted their invite there on Sunday

[-bdbd]

Pinstripe Bowl is "AAC" vs Big Twelve this year. ACC starts its partnership with them in 2014. And Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl is Pac 12 vs BYU, whom accepted their invite there on Sunday

Wasn't aware BYU had accepted for Kraft. Thanks.

I understand, however, that the Big Twelve won't have enough qualifiers to fill their Pinstripe commitment, thus opening it up for an at-large bid vs the AAC. In fact, most predictions I've seen have Notre Dame in that one... :D Would be great for Duke's strong fanbase in that area.

[BlueDevilinNYC]

Wasn't aware BYU had accepted for Kraft. Thanks.

I understand, however, that the Big Twelve won't have enough qualifiers to fill their Pinstripe commitment, thus opening it up for an at-large bid vs the AAC. In fact, most predictions I've seen have Notre Dame in that one... :D Would be great for Duke's strong fanbase in that area.

As a member of the Duke NYC Alumni Association, I would agree with you there!

[throatybeard]

The Sun Bowl, it would seem, will pretty much always have the above attendance challenge, given that El Paso isn't close to anything (even a decent-sized airport).

I'm reminded of the scene in No Country for Old Men with Bardem and the affable fellow with the chicken truck.

[devildeac]

Just received from GoDuke:

Duke Football is Bowl Eligible...Again!

On the strength of its 13-10 victory at No. 14 Virginia Tech on Saturday, the Duke Football team became bowl-eligible for the second consecutive season! Fans interested in following the Blue Devils to their bowl destination may register for tickets on GoDuke.com/tickets or by calling 919-681-BLUE.

Last season, Duke had a terrific turnout at the Belk Bowl in Charlotte, selling more tickets to its bowl game than any other school in the Atlantic Coast Conference. We hope to keep that tradition alive this season! Certainly, we thank all of you in advance for your support of Duke Football.

Fans can select the game(s) they would be willing to travel to from the list of potential bowls based on the ACC's bowl partnerships listed below, and register via credit card. Once the Blue Devils are selected for their bowl destination, the ticket order will automatically be charged to that specific bowl. All other bowl games that fans have selected will be released at no charge.

No refunds will be available once a site has been selected. Ticket seating will be based on Iron Duke priority with all fans who register before November 30th gaining a higher seating priority than those who register after that date. The ACC and the bowl sites will officially announce bids on December 8.

Duke Bowl Options
Follow the Blue Devils to one of these great bowl sites!

* Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
When: December 27, 2013
Where: San Francisco, CA
Ticket Price Range: $25 - $85

Military Bowl presented by Northrop Grumman
When: December 27, 2013
Where: Annapolis, MD
Ticket Price Range: $20 - $75

Belk Bowl
When: December 28, 2013
Where: Charlotte, NC
Ticket Price Range: $45 - $100

Russell Athletic Bowl
When: December 28, 2013
Where: Orlando, FL
Ticket Price Range: $77 - $82

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
When: December 30, 2013
Where: Nashville, TN
Ticket Price Range: $61 - $81

Advocare V100 Bowl
When: December 31, 2013
Where: Shreveport, LA
Ticket Price Range: $37 - $47

Hyundai Sun Bowl
When: December 31, 2013
Where: El Paso, TX
Ticket Price Range: $40 - $60

Chick-Fil-A Bowl
When: December 31, 2013
Where: Atlanta, GA
Ticket Price Range: $80 - $90

Discover Orange Bowl
When: January 3, 2014
Where: Miami Gardens, FL
Ticket Price Range: $75 - $250

* - conditional agreement to select an ACC team if BYU or a Pac-12 team is unavailable.

[ForkFondler]

Thanks. Military Bowl tickets ordered.

I also picked up tickets for Kenan, cheap.

[Reilly]

FSU 7-0 (5-0) [miami, @wfu, syr, idaho, @uf]
Mia 7-0 (3-0) [@fsu, vt, @duke, uva, @pitt]

Clem 7-1 (5-1) [@uva, gt, citadel, @socar]

VT 6-2 (3-1) [@bc, @mia, md, @uva]
Duke 6-2 (2-2) [ncsu, miami, @wfu, @unc]

GT 5-3 (4-2) [pitt, @clemson, ala&m, uga]
MD 5-3 (1-3) [syr, @vt, bc, @ncsu]
Pitt 4-3 (2-2) [@gt, nd, unc, @syr, miami]

WFU 4-4 (2-3) [@syr, fsu, duke, @vandy]
Syr 3-4 (1-2) [wfu, @md, @fsu, pitt, bc]
BC 3-4 (1-3) [vt, @nmst, ncsu, @md, @syr]
State 3-4 (0-4) [unc, @duke, @bc, ecu, md]

UNC 2-5 (1-3) [@ncsu, uva, @pitt, odu, duke]

UVA 2-6 (0-4) [clemson, @unc, @miami, vt]

[throatybeard]

This is just more evidence of how life is harder if you're a little private school like us. How many people do we have who are going to blindly buy, say, six bowl tickets without even knowing where the bowl is?

Say you're Alabama. If you're in the championship game, you'll go anywhere--you're in the championship. If you somehow manage to lose twice, you're in the Sugar, which is a quick jaunt down I-59. If you somehow do worse than that, which you won't, you'll be in some other bowl in the SEC footprint. You know how the Gator is a major score for us in the ACC? In the SEC, it's where you go when you're Mississippi State and you manage to have just a four or five-loss season.

If you're Duke, yikes. We sold like 4000 to the HOF Bowl in Tampa in the 1994 season, I'm told. Belk was a lot better. Closer. 20K? A little more? But the game being anywhere other than Military, Belk, ChikFilA, or Music City is basically a deal breaker. I think I have voiced my reverence for the Sun Bowl. Duke ain't proppin up no Sun Bowl.

Me, I'm rooting for Music City. Nashy is on my way back to the Midwest from Christmas.

I know Belk doesn't want us twice, but I wonder if they might capitulate if all the other NC schools aren't eligible, UVA isn't eligible, GT and VT and Clemson are too good...I think Charlotte and suddenly somewhat competitive Duke football might be a match made in the Piedmont.

[gep]

I think I understand the "desire" for certain bowl games... but for me, ANY bowl will do. First, second consecutive bowl game. Second, Duke will WIN that bowl game, whatever, whichever, and wherever it is :cool: That is the answer

[Reilly]

This is just more evidence of how life is harder if you're a little private school like us. ... But the game being anywhere other than Military, Belk, ChikFilA, or Music City is basically a deal breaker ...

The within-1-conference-win rule protects little private schools like Duke to a certain degree. A 4-4 big state school ACC member cannot leapfrog a 6-2 Duke in bowl priority.

Duke being in the ACC, with its 8 guaranteed bowl tie-ins for 14-teams this year (and a conditional 9th bid), protects us, as well. How many guaranteed bowl slots are there for the BCS conferences? A whole lot. Those who can more reasonably sing the "woe is us" song are the other half of the 120-some FBS schools who are not in the big conferences with the multiple bowl tie-ins.

Finally, you list 4 bowl destinations as being OK. I'd add Miami and Orlando, too. If we win the ACC championship and make it to Miami, Duke won't post? If we get a top-tier ACC tie-in Florida bowl in Orlando, Duke won't post? So, 6 of 8 are OK for Duke -- leaving only El Paso and Shreveport, which would not seem, on their surface, to draw a lot of fans from any ACC school.

[ForkFondler]

This is just more evidence of how life is harder if you're a little private school like us. How many people do we have who are going to blindly buy, say, six bowl tickets without even knowing where the bowl is?

Say you're Alabama. If you're in the championship game, you'll go anywhere--you're in the championship. If you somehow manage to lose twice, you're in the Sugar, which is a quick jaunt down I-59. If you somehow do worse than that, which you won't, you'll be in some other bowl in the SEC footprint. You know how the Gator is a major score for us in the ACC? In the SEC, it's where you go when you're Mississippi State and you manage to have just a four or five-loss season.

If you're Duke, yikes. We sold like 4000 to the HOF Bowl in Tampa in the 1994 season, I'm told. Belk was a lot better. Closer. 20K? A little more? But the game being anywhere other than Military, Belk, ChikFilA, or Music City is basically a deal breaker. I think I have voiced my reverence for the Sun Bowl. Duke ain't proppin up no Sun Bowl.

Me, I'm rooting for Music City. Nashy is on my way back to the Midwest from Christmas.

I know Belk doesn't want us twice, but I wonder if they might capitulate if all the other NC schools aren't eligible, UVA isn't eligible, GT and VT and Clemson are too good...I think Charlotte and suddenly somewhat competitive Duke football might be a match made in the Piedmont.

GoDuke will sell you Music City tickets, now. Your credit card will be charged only if Duke actually goes. So, if you are sure you want to go if Duke plays there, do it. You are essentially voting with your pocket book. I would be surprised if prebooked tickets sales didn't have some influence on where, in fact, Duke plays.

[devildeac]

Mrs. devildeac will be looking at possibilities the next couple weeks, thinking we'd like Charlotte, Nashville or Annapolis. Not thinking we'll "rise near the top" and get an invite to Atlanta, Orlando or Miami and kinda/sorta dreading the thoughts of El Paso or Shreveport, but, what the heck, I guess anything is possible as I am off from Dec 26 to Jan 1, inclusive.

[wilson]

I'm not really familiar with the "National Football Post," but Sports Illustrated has their bowl projections linked from the front page of SI.com (SI doesn't seem to be, or at least hasn't yet, published bowl projections outside of the BCS this year). Anyway, these projections slot Duke in the Sun Bowl (to throaty's dismay, I guess). This is the highest projection I've yet seen for our boys.
http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/201314-Bowl-Projections-5440.html

[duke09hms]

This is just more evidence of how life is harder if you're a little private school like us. How many people do we have who are going to blindly buy, say, six bowl tickets without even knowing where the bowl is?

Say you're Alabama. If you're in the championship game, you'll go anywhere--you're in the championship. If you somehow manage to lose twice, you're in the Sugar, which is a quick jaunt down I-59. If you somehow do worse than that, which you won't, you'll be in some other bowl in the SEC footprint. You know how the Gator is a major score for us in the ACC? In the SEC, it's where you go when you're Mississippi State and you manage to have just a four or five-loss season.

If you're Duke, yikes. We sold like 4000 to the HOF Bowl in Tampa in the 1994 season, I'm told. Belk was a lot better. Closer. 20K? A little more? But the game being anywhere other than Military, Belk, ChikFilA, or Music City is basically a deal breaker. I think I have voiced my reverence for the Sun Bowl. Duke ain't proppin up no Sun Bowl.

Me, I'm rooting for Music City. Nashy is on my way back to the Midwest from Christmas.

I know Belk doesn't want us twice, but I wonder if they might capitulate if all the other NC schools aren't eligible, UVA isn't eligible, GT and VT and Clemson are too good...I think Charlotte and suddenly somewhat competitive Duke football might be a match made in the Piedmont.

Woe is me. Man why did we ever qualify for a bowl anyway.

I think we'll do really well showing up for any bowls not in Shreveport or El Paso. We had the best showing of any ACC program last year at the Belk (20k+), and I question whether that can be explained away by geography. Duke alumni aren't even centered in NC since these days only ~10% of the students hail from NC. Maybe I'm wrong. I came in with my family from PA and met up with my C'09 group who came in from SF, LA, SD, ATL, NYC, Chicago, Texas, and Boston, which I think is a more accurate representation of Duke alumni centers. So I think as long as we keep the momentum going (don't finish 6-6) and go to somewhat of a destination city, we'll be good.

But yeah, the concept of these ticket pre-orders seems absurd. Why not wait till we actually know? It's not like there's a discount with these pre-orders.

The fanbase is excited about Duke football. I don't think we can cite the 1994 HOF Bowl as a comparison. Differences in program commitment and fan enthusiasm are staggering.

Personally, I'm hoping for Nashville or Orlando, then Charlotte, then El Paso/Shreveport. Military Bowl in DC would be a disappointment, probably means a 6-6 finish.

[willywoody]

Don't forget you can buy tickets and donate them back if you can't go. I did that last year and it counts towards our sales total.

[throatybeard]

I want to make it clear that I'm not badmouthing the Sun Bowl. That thing goes back to like the 1930s. Many lesser bowls have come and gone since then.

But that doesn't mean that I'm flying to El Paso and back while my parents are spending Christmas-New Year's week berating me for not spending more time at their house.

It was funny, that bowl was sponsored by John Hancock for a while, and then later lost its name and was solely the John Hancock Bowl. usually once you lose your name to the sponsor, it stays lost. I don't know what of John Hancock, but it's now the Sun Bowl again.

[loran16]

This is just more evidence of how life is harder if you're a little private school like us. How many people do we have who are going to blindly buy, say, six bowl tickets without even knowing where the bowl is?

Say you're Alabama. If you're in the championship game, you'll go anywhere--you're in the championship. If you somehow manage to lose twice, you're in the Sugar, which is a quick jaunt down I-59. If you somehow do worse than that, which you won't, you'll be in some other bowl in the SEC footprint. You know how the Gator is a major score for us in the ACC? In the SEC, it's where you go when you're Mississippi State and you manage to have just a four or five-loss season.

If you're Duke, yikes. We sold like 4000 to the HOF Bowl in Tampa in the 1994 season, I'm told. Belk was a lot better. Closer. 20K? A little more? But the game being anywhere other than Military, Belk, ChikFilA, or Music City is basically a deal breaker. I think I have voiced my reverence for the Sun Bowl. Duke ain't proppin up no Sun Bowl.

Me, I'm rooting for Music City. Nashy is on my way back to the Midwest from Christmas.

I know Belk doesn't want us twice, but I wonder if they might capitulate if all the other NC schools aren't eligible, UVA isn't eligible, GT and VT and Clemson are too good...I think Charlotte and suddenly somewhat competitive Duke football might be a match made in the Piedmont.

Belk took UNC two years in a row at one point (back when it was Meineke Car Care I believe), and then skipped on UNC a third time to take a 6-6 Clemson instead. It's possible if UNC and State don't qualify, but odds are that relies upon us beating both teams and making us more attractive anyhow.

[dukeberto]

Woe is me. Man why did we ever qualify for a bowl anyway.

But yeah, the concept of these ticket pre-orders seems absurd. Why not wait till we actually know? It's not like there's a discount with these pre-orders.



The pre-orders help immensely when it comes to selection time. It shows a bowl that Duke fans WILL go to the destination. All schools do this as a way to bolster their resume for the bowl selection committees.

If it comes down to say a 7-5 GaTech team, versus a 8-4 Duke team for the Music City Bowl, the committee will be more likely to pick GaTech if it has 15K pre-orders versus say 5K pre-orders for Duke.

[Olympic Fan]

I know Belk doesn't want us twice, but I wonder if they might capitulate if all the other NC schools aren't eligible, UVA isn't eligible, GT and VT and Clemson are too good...I think Charlotte and suddenly somewhat competitive Duke football might be a match made in the Piedmont.

I think too much is being made of the "Belk doesn't want us" angle. Obviously they would prefer variety, but it all comes down to choices.

The Belk people would prefer UNC, Clemson, N.C. State, Virginia Tech. If any of those are available (and not blocked by the two-game rule) they would all be picked before Duke.

But Duke did very well for the Belk Bowl last year -- surprisingly good TV ratings and Duke was the only ACC school to sell out its ticket allotment. That's much better than Wake has done in the Belk Bowl (well, it was the Meinike Bowl when they played there in 2007). BC doesn't travel at all, so if it came down to Duke or BC, Duke would be back in Charlotte in a minute.

The interesting one is Georgia Tech. They didn't travel well to the ACC title game in Charlotte last year. If it came down to Duke-Georgia Tech, it would be interesting.

Just to be clear -- I'm not saying that the Belk Bowl people are salivating over a Duke return ... just that it could easily work out that way.

All depends on records and finishes -- a 9-3 Duke would be a lot more attractive than a 6-6 Duke. I know that fan base plays into it, but after last year, Duke is not as far down on the totem pole as some of you seem to think.

[Dev11]

I think too much is being made of the "Belk doesn't want us" angle. Obviously they would prefer variety, but it all comes down to choices.

The Belk people would prefer UNC, Clemson, N.C. State, Virginia Tech. If any of those are available (and not blocked by the two-game rule) they would all be picked before Duke.

But Duke did very well for the Belk Bowl last year -- surprisingly good TV ratings and Duke was the only ACC school to sell out its ticket allotment. That's much better than Wake has done in the Belk Bowl (well, it was the Meinike Bowl when they played there in 2007). BC doesn't travel at all, so if it came down to Duke or BC, Duke would be back in Charlotte in a minute.

The interesting one is Georgia Tech. They didn't travel well to the ACC title game in Charlotte last year. If it came down to Duke-Georgia Tech, it would be interesting.

Just to be clear -- I'm not saying that the Belk Bowl people are salivating over a Duke return ... just that it could easily work out that way.

All depends on records and finishes -- a 9-3 Duke would be a lot more attractive than a 6-6 Duke. I know that fan base plays into it, but after last year, Duke is not as far down on the totem pole as some of you seem to think.

Well, selling your ticket allotment is harder when you play in the southeast and your game is in Shreveport or El Paso. Charlotte is a tad easier, since its a day trip for the DC alumni and a two-day or short flight for the New York people. It helped that it was the first bowl appearance for basically an entire generation of Duke fans.

[OldPhiKap]

I'm not really familiar with the "National Football Post," but Sports Illustrated has their bowl projections linked from the front page of SI.com (SI doesn't seem to be, or at least hasn't yet, published bowl projections outside of the BCS this year). Anyway, these projections slot Duke in the Sun Bowl (to throaty's dismay, I guess). This is the highest projection I've yet seen for our boys.
http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/201314-Bowl-Projections-5440.html

Juarez on New Year's Eve?!? What could possibly go wrong!

[throatybeard]

Juarez on New Year's Eve?!? What could possibly go wrong!

I got sidetracked in El Paso, stopped to get myself a map
Went the wrong way into Juarez with Juanita on my lap
Then I went to sleep in Shreveport, woke up in Abilene
Wonderin’ why the hell I’m wanted at some town halfway between

[matt1]

I would love to wind up in Orlando or Atlanta, as the Russell Athletic Bowl or the Chick-fil-A would give us a lot of national exposure. I think that we only wind up there if we are 10-2 (or 10-3).

If we are:

11-2- Orange Bowl
10-2- Russell Athletic Bowl OR Chick-fil-A Bowl
10-3- Russell Athletic Bowl OR Chick-fil-A Bowl
9-3-Probably the Sun Bowl, but there are many variables here (this is my prediction)
8-4- Belk Bowl OR Music City Bowl
7-5- Music City Bowl, Independence Bowl, OR Military Bowl
6-6- Independence Bowl OR Military Bowl

[OldPhiKap]

I got sidetracked in El Paso, stopped to get myself a map
Went the wrong way into Juarez with Juanita on my lap
Then I went to sleep in Shreveport, woke up in Abilene
Wonderin’ why the hell I’m wanted at some town halfway between

When you're lost in the rain in Juarez
And it's Eastertime too
And your gravity fails
And negativity don't pull you through
Don't put on any airs
When you're down on Rue Morgue Avenue
They got some hungry women there
And they really make a mess outa you.


-- Robert Zimmerman

[duke09hms]

alright Duke fans, our team's has a well-earned off-day, but let's go PITT, FSU, BC, Clemson, and of course whoever is playing carolina, go NC State!

[sagegrouse]

alright Duke fans, our team's has a well-earned off-day, but let's go PITT, FSU, BC, Clemson, and of course whoever is playing carolina, go NC State!

Five weeks in a row without a loss! Go Duke! Beat Open Date!

sage

[duke09hms]

BC leading VT late in the 4th. Will VT come back to us in the ACC standings?

[duke09hms]

Logan Thomas with the big choke away at BC. 4 turnovers - 2 ints and 2 fumbles, one on the last drive.

[loran16]

Swear to god, all of our opponents but Miami look lousy today.

Wake lost Campannaro to a dislocated collarbone - return unknown. They're down 13-0 and have 192 yards in the fourth quarter. Total.

State looks awful right now and is likely going to lose to UNC.....who also looks mediocre as hell and is only up 8 due to a missed FG and extra point. Mitchell for NC State looks like Logan Thomas....and he has to face us at home next week.

We really should win all 3 of those games.

[duke09hms]

Swear to god, all of our opponents but Miami look lousy today.

Wake lost Campannaro to a dislocated collarbone - return unknown. They're down 13-0 and have 192 yards in the fourth quarter. Total.

State looks awful right now and is likely going to lose to UNC.....who also looks mediocre as hell and is only up 8 due to a missed FG and extra point. Mitchell for NC State looks like Logan Thomas....and he has to face us at home next week.

We really should win all 3 of those games.

Forgive me Father for my faith is weak.

Man, I really hope so, but I'm still not ready to believe in "should-wins" for Duke football. Yet.
Just want to get our first win in November in a long time. Cut has one November win in five years so far.

[Duvall]

Swear to god, all of our opponents but Miami look lousy today.

Wake lost Campannaro to a dislocated collarbone - return unknown. They're down 13-0 and have 192 yards in the fourth quarter. Total.

State looks awful right now and is likely going to lose to UNC.....who also looks mediocre as hell and is only up 8 due to a missed FG and extra point. Mitchell for NC State looks like Logan Thomas....and he has to face us at home next week.

We really should win all 3 of those games.

And Miami will have plenty of chances to look lousy tonight, though that's not really a fair measure.

Duke could very easily be a Georgia Tech loss at Clemson away from controlling its own destiny by the end of the night.

[loran16]

Forgive me Father for my faith is weak.

Man, I really hope so, but I'm still not ready to believe in "should-wins" for Duke football. Yet.
Just want to get our first win in November in a long time. Cut has one November win in five years so far.

Well, we're seriously going to be double digit favorites over NC State next week. If that's not one, I do not know.

[devildeac]

Swear to god, all of our opponents but Miami look lousy today.

Wake lost Campannaro to a dislocated collarbone - return unknown. They're down 13-0 and have 192 yards in the fourth quarter. Total.

State looks awful right now and is likely going to lose to UNC.....who also looks mediocre as hell and is only up 8 due to a missed FG and extra point. Mitchell for NC State looks like Logan Thomas....and he has to face us at home next week.

We really should win all 3 of those games.

Not necessarily at chappaheeya. The games there scare me for many reasons. Fans' safety. Players' safety. Bowl implications if they have to beat us for bowl eligibility.

[devildeac]

And Miami will have plenty of chances to look lousy tonight, though that's not really a fair measure.

Duke could very easily be a Georgia Tech loss at Clemson away from controlling its own destiny by the end of the night.

My wife and I just discussed the possibilities mentioned so far and have decided we're not talking about any other teams' games for a while. Duke needs to avoid stumbling next week. Then we can talk about Miami. But I agree, a Miami loss tonight and a GT loss.........

[devildeac]

And Miami will have plenty of chances to look lousy tonight, though that's not really a fair measure.

Duke could very easily be a Georgia Tech loss at Clemson away from controlling its own destiny by the end of the night.

Wait, I just checked CBS sports and Clemson is beating UVa now, 14-7, at 'Hooville.

http://www.cstv.com/gametracker/launch/gt_mfootbl.html?event=1242563&school=cbs&sport=mfootbl&camefrom=&startschool=&

[Duvall]

Wait, I just checked CBS sports and Clemson is beating UVa now, 14-7, at 'Hooville.

http://www.cstv.com/gametracker/launch/gt_mfootbl.html?event=1242563&school=cbs&sport=mfootbl&camefrom=&startschool=&

Oh, I meant Clemson beating Georgia Tech on the 14th.

[Bob Green]

At the half, Navy is beating #25 Notre Dame 20-17. Go Navy!!! A win by the Midshipmen would bolster Duke's strength of schedule.

[devildeac]

Oh, I meant Clemson beating Georgia Tech on the 14th.

No worry. Earlier to day, I thought we had won all of our recent exhibitions in the last few years over the reigning D2 champs by 30+ points (or was it 50-60+ points:o:rolleyes:). Then, someone with the facts came along;).

Oh, and BTW, go Tigers.

[devildeac]

At the half, Navy is beating #25 Notre Dame 20-17. Go Navy!!! A win by the Midshipmen would bolster Duke's strength of schedule.

If that score holds up, does that give ND credit for a partial out of conference loss:rolleyes:?

[uh_no]

With VT's loss to BC today, duke is one step closer to "controlling their own destiny" (the paradoxical nature of the saying aside...) within the division.

Duke now needs the following 3 things:
1)a miami loss (likely to happen tonight)
2)a pitt loss(they're losing to GT ATM, and play ND and miami the rest of the way)
3)a GT loss (they have clemson in 2 weeks, and georgia a few weeks later)

we need to take care of business the last 4 games, and the rest seems like it will take care of itself. Every game from here on out, duke is playing for the division title. people say we're already bowl eligible....forget that....we have 4 bowls over the next 4 weeks, and here's to winning them all.

[throatybeard]

With VT's loss to BC today, duke is one step closer to "controlling their own destiny" (the paradoxical nature of the saying aside...) within the division.

Duke now needs the following 3 things:
1)a miami loss (likely to happen tonight)
2)a pitt loss(they're losing to GT ATM, and play ND and miami the rest of the way)
3)a GT loss (they have clemson in 2 weeks, and georgia a few weeks later)

we need to take care of business the last 4 games, and the rest seems like it will take care of itself. Every game from here on out, duke is playing for the division title. people say we're already bowl eligible....forget that....we have 4 bowls over the next 4 weeks, and here's to winning them all.

Georgia Tech losing to Georgia isn't going to help us in the conference standings.

How about Georgia gutting out that win over Florida. I can't believe Florida is 4-4.

[uh_no]

Georgia Tech losing to Georgia isn't going to help us in the conference standings.

How about Georgia gutting out that win over Florida. I can't believe Florida is 4-4.

Math was never my strong suit :)

[throatybeard]

Math was never my strong suit :)

No worries; conference realignment has me confused too. I just watched West Virginia beat Texas Christian in a Big East game. I think.

I'm still mystified as to what games against Our Lady of Northern Indiana count as.

[devildeac]

No worries; conference realignment has me confused too. I just watched West Virginia beat Texas Christian in a Big East game. I think.

I'm still mystified as to what games against Our Lady of Northern Indiana count as.

They will count as victories. (I've been around Cut and Ozzie too long;).)

[devildeac]

GT defeats Pitt, 21-10. Go Tigers.

[devildeac]

Hurricanes being downgraded now by f$u, 35-14, early in 4Q with the 'Noles on the move. I'm glad we don't have to play the Tallahassee team this year. Until the ACC championship game, anyway;):rolleyes:.

[Reilly]

The NBC News election desk has called tonight's game for FSU. Again, we are projecting FSU as the winner of tonight's game with 35/49ths of the points scored ....

FSU 8-0 (6-0) [@wfu, syr, idaho, @uf]

Clem 8-1 (6-1) [gt, citadel, @socar]
Mia 7-1 (3-1) [vt, @duke, uva, @pitt]

Duke 6-2 (2-2) [ncsu, miami, @wfu, @unc]

VT 6-3 (3-2) [@mia, md, @uva]
GT 6-3 (5-2) [@clemson, ala&m, uga]
MD 5-3 (1-3) [syr, @vt, bc, @ncsu]

Syr 4-4 (2-2) [@md, @fsu, pitt, bc]
BC 4-4 (2-3) [@nmst, ncsu, @md, @syr]
Pitt 4-4 (2-3) [nd, unc, @syr, miami]

WFU 4-5 (2-4) [fsu, duke, @vandy]
UNC 3-5 (2-3) [uva, @pitt, odu, duke]
State 3-5 (0-5) [@duke, @bc, ecu, md]
____________________________________________

UVA 2-7 (0-5) [@unc, @miami, vt]



The Road to Charlotte:

Mia 3-1 [vt, @duke, uva, @pitt]
GT 5-2 [@clemson]
VT 3-2 [@mia, md, @uva]
Duke 2-2 [ncsu, miami, @wfu, @unc]
Pitt 2-3 [unc, @syr, miami]
UNC 2-3 [uva, @pitt, duke]
UVA 0-5 [@unc, @miami, vt]

[throatybeard]

So basically, Clemson over GT is a must-win for Duke.

[Olympic Fan]

So basically, Clemson over GT is a must-win for Duke.

Yep ... in terms of playing in the ACC championship game. Although every team that ties for first shares the Division title (technically, there are no tiebreakers for that).

On the other hand, if Clemson does beat Georgia Tech in Death Valley them our fate I in our own hands. That's the only help we need outside our control.

If we take care of business against NC State, then we'll know where we stand when we face Miami -- since the GT at Clemson game is on Thursday night two days before we face the Canes.

[throatybeard]

Last [and only] time Duke has ever beaten Miami in football was the day I was the last baby born at Watts Hospital. (Later the NC School of Science and Math). There were tornadoes in Durham County. They drug me and my moms to Durham General in an ambo. I'm recently 37.

So, I guess we're due.

(That said, we didn't play them regularly until they joined the ACC).

You can win a trivia question with other DBR people you know. Who got c-sectioned on the only day Duke beat Miami in football?

[MarkD83]

Last [and only] time Duke has ever beaten Miami in football was the day I was the last baby born at Watts Hospital. (Later the NC School of Science and Math). There were tornadoes in Durham County. They drug me and my moms to Durham General in an ambo. I'm recently 37.

So, I guess we're due.

(That said, we didn't play them regularly until they joined the ACC).

You can win a trivia question with other DBR people you know. Who got c-sectioned on the only day Duke beat Miami in football?

I am usually superstitous and want people to do the same thing everyday during a winning streak or the last time Duke won. However, for your mother's sake............

[devildeac]

Yep ... in terms of playing in the ACC championship game. Although every team that ties for first shares the Division title (technically, there are no tiebreakers for that).

On the other hand, if Clemson does beat Georgia Tech in Death Valley them our fate I in our own hands. That's the only help we need outside our control.

If we take care of business against NC State, then we'll know where we stand when we face Miami -- since the GT at Clemson game is on Thursday night two days before we face the Canes.

And Duke's chances to beat Miami inched upward late in the 4th quarter of the FSU-Miami game late last PM.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/9920980/miami-hurricanes-duke-johnson-cast-hurting-ankle

Of course, we have a game before that so let's take care of business and beat the Pack this Saturday.

[Bob Green]

No worries; conference realignment has me confused too. I just watched West Virginia beat Texas Christian in a Big East game. I think.

West Virginia and TCU are in the Big 12, which has 10 teams.

[ForkFondler]

Yep ... in terms of playing in the ACC championship game. Although every team that ties for first shares the Division title (technically, there are no tiebreakers for that).


Getting a share of the Coastal title and NOT playing FSU wouldn't be the worst thing that could happen.

[uh_no]

And Duke's chances to beat Miami inched upward late in the 4th quarter of the FSU-Miami game late last PM.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/9920980/miami-hurricanes-duke-johnson-cast-hurting-ankle

Of course, we have a game before that so let's take care of business and beat the Pack this Saturday.

Further, Wake's star receiver, Michael Campanaro, is out 4-6 with a broken shoulder.

Take care of business time.

[devildeac]

Further, Wake's star receiver, Michael Campanaro, is out 4-6 with a broken shoulder.

Take care of business time.

Yep. Bob Green posted that in another thread and I put some rushing and receiving stats up in the ACC Championship Vigil thread. I think. Too much football and posting yesterday:o.

[OldPhiKap]

West Virginia and TCU are in the Big 12, which has 10 teams.

Apparently, they've gone metric. Carter was right, just 30 years too early.



Getting a share of the Coastal title and NOT playing FSU wouldn't be the worst thing that could happen.

Um, I'm kinda thinking the same thing. I want to compete for championships and will root like hell if we get there. But, I don't care who you are -- the 'Noles are a damn spicy meatball.

[Olympic Fan]

My optimism went w-a-a-a-y up after learning that we'll get Miami without Duke Johnson and Wake without Michael Campanero.

I'm sorry for the kids and don't wish misfortune on anybody, but I won't apologize for celebrating when the injury gods help us for a change.

Still, nothing guaranteed, but I'd guess that our chances of beating Wake went from 55 percent to around 70 percent (Campanero is THAT important to them) and our chances of beating Miami went from 30 percent to 40 percent (Crawford is a very good backup, but Johnson is the best RB/KR in the ACC).

[davekay1971]

Um, I'm kinda thinking the same thing. I want to compete for championships and will root like hell if we get there. But, I don't care who you are -- the 'Noles are a damn spicy meatball.

Absolutely agreed. Usually I'd feel like, "we'd have nothing to lose, so let's go to the ACC Championship game and not worry about the result." But, honestly, I'd have mixed feelings about going there to play the best team the ACC has had since the 'Noles last national champion. FSU is going to destroy whoever they play in that game. It'd be great for Duke and for our players to be able to say that they played in the ACC championship game...but I think I'd be praying that they just escaped the game uninjured and without getting beaten too badly. Watching the second half of the FSU-Miami game, I kept thinking, "I want no part of that team."

[Reilly]

http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/29/q-amp-a-with-duke-coach-david-cutcliffe#more

HD: Is there anything I didn't ask you that you want to get out there?

DC: We want people to understand we're here to win championships. People are going to laugh. I hope they do. It just adds fuel to the fire.

[davekay1971]

http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/29/q-amp-a-with-duke-coach-david-cutcliffe#more

HD: Is there anything I didn't ask you that you want to get out there?

DC: We want people to understand we're here to win championships. People are going to laugh. I hope they do. It just adds fuel to the fire.

Oh, I have no doubt that Dave Cutcliffe, and the entire team, wouldn't think twice about taking on FSU in the championship game. And they'd go there with every intention of taking home the trophy. I look at my trepidation about that matchup in the same way that I get nervous when my daughter does anything on the balance beam in gymnastics while my daughter and her instructor look totally cool calm and collected about it. Nervous parent/fan syndrome. If Duke fights their way into the championship game, Cutcliffe and our players will gladly take on the FSU juggernaut.

[Devil in the Blue Dress]

Oh, I have no doubt that Dave Cutcliffe, and the entire team, wouldn't think twice about taking on FSU in the championship game. And they'd go there with every intention of taking home the trophy. I look at my trepidation about that matchup in the same way that I get nervous when my daughter does anything on the balance beam in gymnastics while my daughter and her instructor look totally cool calm and collected about it. Nervous parent/fan syndrome. If Duke fights their way into the championship game, Cutcliffe and our players will gladly take on the FSU juggernaut.
I have no doubt that our coaches and team would go full throttle to take on FL State or anyone else in the conference championship game. My concern is more about the increased likelihood of injuries, specially significant ones. The concern about significant injuries is more about avoiding them and their possible long range effect than it is about anything else.

[Class of '94]

I have no doubt that our coaches and team would go full throttle to take on FL State or anyone else in the conference championship game. My concern is more about the increased likelihood of injuries, specially significant ones. The concern about significant injuries is more about avoiding them and their possible long range effect than it is about anything else.

I agree that I wouldn't want in long-lasting effects on the football team if Duke were to play FSU in the ACC championship game. That said, if Duke were to play FSU in the championship game this season, it would mean that Duke went 10-2 for the season. I'd take that in a heartbeat!! And even if Duke was so banged up that they lose the bowl game, we'd still be 10-3; and I think the coverage, recruiting gains and notoriety of Duke playing in what should be a good bowl would so outweigh any negative effects of mental and/or physical health the team might incur from playing FSU.

Personally, I think Duke could put a scare in FSU because for the first time in years, Duke can use 2 good mobile quarterbacks against them (assuming Boone, Connette, the O-line and offense are sharp ;)).

[Bob Green]

And even if Duke was so banged up that they lose the bowl game, we'd still be 10-3; and I think the coverage, recruiting gains and notoriety of Duke playing in what should be a good bowl would so outweigh any negative effects of mental and/or physical health the team might incur from playing FSU.

10-4. But I agree with all your points. Count me in the camp that desires to see us win out and take on FSU in the ACCCG.

[brevity]

No worries; conference realignment has me confused too. I just watched West Virginia beat Texas Christian in a Big East game. I think.


West Virginia and TCU are in the Big 12, which has 10 teams.

Bob Green is correct, but throatybeard's comment is not that outlandish. West Virginia left the Big East in 2012. TCU was supposed to join the Big East soon thereafter. (Wouldn't surprise me if they are heated Big East rivals in that parallel Fringe world where Eric Stoltz is still Marty McFly (http://www.fringetelevision.com/2010/04/fringe-flashback-eric-stoltz-in-back-to.html).)

[BlueDevilinNYC]

Not much love from CBS, who has us as the #8 ACC team and going to the Military Bowl:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

SBNation keeps us in the #5 spot and at the Belk Bowl vs. Houston:

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2013/11/3/5060878/bowl-projections-2013-predictions

College Sports Madness like us in the Music City Bowl vs. Auburn (This would be an awesome matchup to watch):

http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/football/bowl-projections

Bleacher Report has us in the Sun Bowl against Arizona in a classic basketball matchup:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1833303-bcs-standings-2013-week-11-bcs-rankings-and-bowl-game-projections/page/22

And our favorite Heather Dinich still has us in the Belk Bowl:

http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/62811/acc-bowl-projections-week-10-4

[wilson]

A couple more fresh projections to add to the mix.
Mark Schlabach at ESPN now says Sun Bowl vs. Southern Cal, and Brad Edwards says Music City vs. Ole Miss:
http://espn.go.com/college-football/bowls/projections
Both of those bowls would be great accomplishments for our program in my opinion.

SI's Stewart Mandel, one of the best in the biz, has his first set of projections of the season up (he doesn't start doing this until November). He says Belk Bowl vs. Houston this week.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/college-football/news/20131104/college-football-bowl-projections/?sct=hp_wr_a2&eref=sihp

[throatybeard]

West Virginia and TCU are in the Big 12, which has 10 teams.

I thought it was pretty clear that I was joking.

[DukeSean]

Not much love from CBS, who has us as the #8 ACC team and going to the Military Bowl:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

SBNation keeps us in the #5 spot and at the Belk Bowl vs. Houston:

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2013/11/3/5060878/bowl-projections-2013-predictions

College Sports Madness like us in the Music City Bowl vs. Auburn (This would be an awesome matchup to watch):

http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/football/bowl-projections

Bleacher Report has us in the Sun Bowl against Arizona in a classic basketball matchup:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1833303-bcs-standings-2013-week-11-bcs-rankings-and-bowl-game-projections/page/22

And our favorite Heather Dinich still has us in the Belk Bowl:

http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/62811/acc-bowl-projections-week-10-4

I'd love that matchup in Nashville against Auburn. Sign me up for that!

While Sun Bowl would be a big accomplishment for our program, El Paso is only good for branded taco seasoning and salsa and not someplace where I'd like to go bowling

[allenmurray]

I think we are still at east one week out (and more likely two weeks out) before the bowl predictions have any reliability at all.

[wilson]

I think we are still at east one week out (and more likely two weeks out) before the bowl predictions have any reliability at all.You're most likely quite correct, but as we've said upthread a time or two, this is a delightful bit of triviality to engage in, given our program's history over the past several decades.

[OldPhiKap]

Brad Edwards says Music City vs. Ole Miss


Think Cut would get up for that one?

[wilson]

Think Cut would get up for that one?Ooh, good point! Somehow I didn't think of that at all.

[OldPhiKap]

Ooh, good point! Somehow I didn't think of that at all.

AND, it would be in Tennessee. Cut still has some good ties there, I bet. Would be a bonus for recruiting.

If you look at bowls from that perspective -- like I think we did last year in Charlotte -- Music City would probably be the best place to play.

[jimsumner]

I think we are still at east one week out (and more likely two weeks out) before the bowl predictions have any reliability at all.

You have to keep in mind that we don't have much experience in bowl projections. I'm just surprised we aren't talking about which regional the football team will be going to and where it will be seeded.

[uh_no]

You have to keep in mind that we don't have much experience in bowl projections. I'm just surprised we aren't talking about which regional the football team will be going to and where it will be seeded.

I do know that whatever region it is, the committee will have been out to screw us! they always are....

[OldPhiKap]

I do know that whatever region it is, the committee will have been out to screw us! they always are....

The one time I'd really like to be paired up against Kentucky . . . .

[devildeac]

The one time I'd really like to be paired up against Kentucky . . . .

In the NIT?
;):rolleyes:

[Bob Green]

AND, it would be in Tennessee. Cut still has some good ties there, I bet. Would be a bonus for recruiting.

If you look at bowls from that perspective -- like I think we did last year in Charlotte -- Music City would probably be the best place to play.

You make a strong case for Duke to the Music City Bowl. I've been ambivalent toward the whole "which bowl is better" discussion as I am pretty much satisfied by the team playing in any bowl, but your post has me reconsidering my position. Now I want a bowl game located in fertile recruiting grounds such as Tennessee, Georgia or Florida.

[throatybeard]

I think we are still at east one week out (and more likely two weeks out) before the bowl predictions have any reliability at all.

Lunardi says we'll be in the South region in March. Write it down and put it in a drawer.

Tennesseein is Tennebelievin.

[Reilly]

You make a strong case for Duke to the Music City Bowl. I've been ambivalent toward the whole "which bowl is better" discussion as I am pretty much satisfied by the team playing in any bowl, but your post has me reconsidering my position. Now I want a bowl game located in fertile recruiting grounds such as Tennessee, Georgia or Florida.

As for recruiting fertility, Cut noted several times how cool it was last year that the Duke/Cincy game was on national tv during primetime when there were no other football games on at all -- if you cared about watching college football that night, you were watching Duke.

Looking at the bowl schedule, I'd say the Russell bowl in Orlando fits that scenario -- we'd be on TV on a Saturday night, in primetime, w/ no conflict (even the Orange bowl has a competing game this year; and Atlanta competes with New Year's Eve in general). Saturday night Orlando would be better than a Monday afternoon at 3 pm -- which is Nashville.

So, of the two, I'm rooting for Orlando over Nashville. I want to see Kenny Anunike screaming "We're going to Disney World" while riding around on the victory bell after whipping UNC ....

[jimsumner]

It should be noted that the 2013 Belk Bowl will be held on December 28.

The Duke men's basketball team hosts Eastern Michigan on December 28.

FWIW.

[CameronBornAndBred]

It should be noted that the 2013 Belk Bowl will be held on December 28.

The Duke men's basketball team hosts Eastern Michigan on December 28.

FWIW.
I would happily miss Duke beating the snot out of a small school that isn't good (They lost 38-90 at Kentucky last year) to watch Duke play in a bowl game.

[Dev11]

It should be noted that the 2013 Belk Bowl will be held on December 28.

The Duke men's basketball team hosts Eastern Michigan on December 28.

FWIW.

Move the EMU game to the Bobcats arena and make it a doubleheader.

[Skitzle]

Would your rather:

Be in a lower ranked bowl and win

or

Be in a higher ranked bowl and lose

NOT AN OPTION: (win in a higher ranked bowl AKA "GET AN A IN AN AP CLASS")

[CameronBornAndBred]

Would your rather:

Be in a lower ranked bowl and win

or

Be in a higher ranked bowl and lose

NOT AN OPTION: (win in a higher ranked bowl AKA "GET AN A IN AN AP CLASS")
Be in the higher ranked bowl. That means we had the more successful season overall.

[BlueDevilinNYC]

Would your rather:

Be in a lower ranked bowl and win

or

Be in a higher ranked bowl and lose

NOT AN OPTION: (win in a higher ranked bowl AKA "GET AN A IN AN AP CLASS")

Definitely higher ranked bowl. An appearance in a higher ranked bowl means a better overall regular season and a higher national recognition overall, especially to recruits (as long as we don't get blown out).

[wilson]

I would happily miss Duke beating the snot out of a small school that isn't good (They lost 38-90 at Kentucky last year) to watch Duke play in a bowl game.All in all, I 100% agree with you, but there is a certain revenge factor when it comes to Eastern Michigan...remember Earl Boykins.

[throatybeard]

I would happily miss Duke beating the snot out of a small school that isn't good (They lost 38-90 at Kentucky last year) to watch Duke play in a bowl game.

Enrollment:

EMU - 23,419
Duke - 14,591

(This is with postgraduate students included).

[killerleft]

All in all, I 100% agree with you, but there is a certain revenge factor when it comes to Eastern Michigan...remember Earl Boykins.

Let that Eastern Michigan game go, man, 'cause it's long, long gone. If we manage to beat them in a throwaway holiday game it just won't be the same.

[OldPhiKap]

Would your rather:

Be in a lower ranked bowl and win

or

Be in a higher ranked bowl and lose

NOT AN OPTION: (win in a higher ranked bowl AKA "GET AN A IN AN AP CLASS")

It has been more than 50 years since Duke won a bowl. 60 years since we won a bowl by a convincing margin. Let's correct that this year.

If I had to choose.

[Dukehky]

I think that I would split the difference. I don't want to go to a really good bowl and get embarrassed by a good SEC team that just went through the ringer in the conference. Nor do i want to play in a really weak bowl against an opponent that beating would give our program no notoriety. I think that the Cinci game last year was ideal to be honest. Two relatively evenly matched teams and Duke had a great shot at winning. I had to listen on the radio so I'm not completely sure about how the match-ups went but I know the game was close right up until the end.

If we go say 9-3 in the ACC, everyone's going to know that we had a relatively weak schedule (we do, but we beat teams that Duke is supposed to beat, which is funny to say) and getting blown out by a really strong team from a stronger conference isn't going to be good for the program. At the same time, playing a mid-major school in a low level bowl isn't going to do anything for the program either. Bowls are important for programs, they're important to the season as well, but I view them as measuring sticks for the program (YAY DUKE HAS A FOOTBALL PROGRAM THAT CAN BE MEASURED). I want a good match-up that Duke can win, not should win.

I hope that made sense, but push come to shove, I'd like to see the kids win a bowl game, they deserve it.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Enrollment:

EMU - 23,419
Duke - 14,591

(This is with postgraduate students included).
What's the point? Does that make them more worthwhile seeing over a bowl game? Regardless of how small (or big) they are, they are still a BAD team. I would rather freeze my tuckus off watching Duke something it has never done before (play a bowl game for the second year straight) than be warm in Cameron watching a blowout.

[wilson]

...I want a good match-up that Duke can win, not should win...I understand what you're saying, but FWIW...
"It may not sound like much to some people but that’s the beginning of starting to believe you should win. Not can. There is a big difference. When you start believing you should win, then you start winning. This ‘can’ stuff is bull. It’s Durham Bull City bull. I’ve never liked that. Yes, of course you can win, but I hope we’re believing we should win." --Coach Cut after the UVA win

[hurleyfor3]

You have to keep in mind that we don't have much experience in bowl projections. I'm just surprised we aren't talking about which regional the football team will be going to and where it will be seeded.

I just hope they don't make us play at 10pm on Thursday and noon on Saturday and in the same pod as unc.

[Duvall]

Talking bowl opponents is kind of weird at this point because there are so many moving pieces. Barring an improbable ACC championship, the range of bowls for Duke is what - Russell Athletic Bowl to Military Bowl, assuming FSU to Orange and Clemson to Chik-Fil-A. It's tough to predict what the bowls are going to do, so just win as many games as possible.

[killerleft]

Would your rather:

Be in a lower ranked bowl and win

or

Be in a higher ranked bowl and lose

NOT AN OPTION: (win in a higher ranked bowl AKA "GET AN A IN AN AP CLASS")

Your options leave much to be desired. Why in the world would winning in a higher-ranked bowl not be an option? And where is the dividing line? For the record, I want for us to play in the ACC Championship game, and then the highest ranked bowl for which we qualify. There's a minefield of ifs to get past yet, but you can bet the players are thinking big. Real big.

[wilson]

Your options leave much to be desired. Why in the world would winning in a higher-ranked bowl not be an option? And where is the dividing line? For the record, I want for us to play in the ACC Championship game, and then the highest ranked bowl for which we qualify. There's a minefield of ifs to get past yet, but you can bet the players are thinking big. Real big.I didn't read the OP's post to imply that winning the better-regarded bowl is impossible; rather, it was just a hypothetical question of if you had to pick between the two proposed options, which would you prefer?

[killerleft]

I didn't read the OP's post to imply that winning the better-regarded bowl is impossible; rather, it was just a hypothetical question of if you had to pick between the two proposed options, which would you prefer?

Yeah, me too. I just couldn't figure out the point of it, I guess. I'd rather just know we did our best, and let the chips fall where they may. I can't bring myself to concede defeat until the clock hits zeros, so neither option works.

[bob blue devil]

Sorry in advance for an obnoxious response, but for me it depends on the difference in bowl quality - I'd rather win at a very slightly lesser bowl, but would rather play in a tremendously higher bowl (just happy to be there). I've never seen duke win a bowl game - changing that would mean a lot to me as a fan, so the breakeven is probably two or three bowl "levels".

[budwom]

A lot of football to be played before a bowl but.....I think I'd like to play a name team but one we match up well with, such as a team that perhaps is vulnerable to the pass.

[BlueDevilinNYC]

I've never seen duke win a bowl game - changing that would mean a lot to me as a fan

To be fair, I would venture to say that over 70% of Duke Football fans haven't seen Duke win a bowl game before (since our last win was in 1960)

[Skitzle]

To be fair, I would venture to say that over 70% of Duke Football fans haven't seen Duke win a bowl game before (since our last win was in 1960)

This was really the point of my hypothetical.

Being in a higher bowl game (even if we lose) is a measuring stick for the program.

On the flip side... Who doesn't want to see Duke win a bowl game! :D Being in a lower ranked bowl gives us a significantly better shot at that satisfaction.

So which one is more satisfying to you? Seeing the Duke measuring stick move up a level, or ending the season with a win.

Similar question to UNC fans... Would they rather win the NIT or get knocked out in the Elite 8 :D!

[-bdbd]

Here are ESPN's two "experts" picking bowl projections...


http://espn.go.com/college-football/bowls/projections

One has Duke vs USC in the Sun Bowl in El Paso.
The other has Duke vs Miss State in the Music City Bowl in Nashville.

Also of interest, while neither has FSU in the National Championship game, one has two ACC teams (FSU and Clemson) in BCS Bowls, while the other has just FSU. Oddly, it is the prognosticator who only has one ACC team in BCS Bowls who picks Duke for the higher-ranked Sun Bowl.

[matt1]

Here are ESPN's two "experts" picking bowl projections...


http://espn.go.com/college-football/bowls/projections

One has Duke vs USC in the Sun Bowl in El Paso.
The other has Duke vs Miss State in the Music City Bowl in Nashville.

Also of interest, while neither has FSU in the National Championship game, one has two ACC teams (FSU and Clemson) in BCS Bowls, while the other has just FSU. Oddly, it is the prognosticator who only has one ACC team in BCS Bowls who picks Duke for the higher-ranked Sun Bowl.

If his pecking order is true and two ACC teams go to the BCS, that would put Duke in Orlando for the Russell Athletic Bowl, which is where I have us going right now. If we win the ACC Coastal (but lose to FSU), we will probably go to Atlanta against a good SEC team (I currently say Mizzou) if 2 ACC teams are in the BCS or, if only one is in the BCS, we would likely go to Orlando against the #2 team from the American (I have Louisville).

Currently, I say that we would play against:

Orange: Likely someone like Fresno St. or UCF
Chick-fil-A: Missouri- would be the perfect opportunity to prove ourselves
Russell Athletic: Louisville- future ACC matchup
Sun: Oregon St.
Belk: Houston
Music City: Georgia (many also have Ole Miss here)
V100 (Shreveport): Vanderbilt- this would be a fun matchup, but in a lower bowl
Military: Tulane (though we will not drop this far unless we are 6-6)

[Duvall]

If his pecking order is true and two ACC teams go to the BCS, that would put Duke in Orlando for the Russell Athletic Bowl, which is where I have us going right now. If we win the ACC Coastal (but lose to FSU), we will probably go to Atlanta against a good SEC team (I currently say Mizzou) if 2 ACC teams are in the BCS or, if only one is in the BCS, we would likely go to Orlando against the #2 team from the American (I have Louisville).

Currently, I say that we would play against:

Orange: Likely someone like Fresno St. or UCF
Chick-fil-A: Missouri- would be the perfect opportunity to prove ourselves
Russell Athletic: Louisville- future ACC matchup
Sun: Oregon St.
Belk: Houston
Music City: Georgia (many also have Ole Miss here)
V100 (Shreveport): Vanderbilt- this would be a fun matchup, but in a lower bowl
Military: Tulane (though we will not drop this far unless we are 6-6)

There's no pecking order, only the bowls picking the team they want subject to the one-win rule. So don't get your hopes up for anything "better" than the Sun Bowl regardless of how Duke finishes.

[throatybeard]

One has Duke vs USC in the Sun Bowl in El Paso.
The other has Duke vs Miss State in the Music City Bowl in Nashville

I have trouble believing Mississippi State will be eligible. They're 4-4, but the remaining schedule is at Texas A&M, Alabama, at Arkansas, and Ole Miss. The only one of those that sounds like maybe a win to me is Arkansas.

[Duvall]

I have trouble believing Mississippi State will be eligible. They're 4-4, but the remaining schedule is at Texas A&M, Alabama, at Arkansas, and Ole Miss. The only one of those that sounds like maybe a win to me is Arkansas.

He meant Ole Miss - at least that's what the ESPN picks have now for the Music City Bowl.

[BigWayne]

If his pecking order is true and two ACC teams go to the BCS, that would put Duke in Orlando for the Russell Athletic Bowl, which is where I have us going right now. If we win the ACC Coastal (but lose to FSU), we will probably go to Atlanta against a good SEC team (I currently say Mizzou) if 2 ACC teams are in the BCS or, if only one is in the BCS, we would likely go to Orlando against the #2 team from the American (I have Louisville).

Currently, I say that we would play against:

Orange: Likely someone like Fresno St. or UCF
Chick-fil-A: Missouri- would be the perfect opportunity to prove ourselves
Russell Athletic: Louisville- future ACC matchup
Sun: Oregon St.
Belk: Houston
Music City: Georgia (many also have Ole Miss here)
V100 (Shreveport): Vanderbilt- this would be a fun matchup, but in a lower bowl
Military: Tulane (though we will not drop this far unless we are 6-6)
Orange Bowl gets to pick first for the last three slots. They will not pick Fresno. They might pick UCF for a local draw if they get stuck with Duke. If they get Miami or Clemson, they will most likely pick a B10 or B12 team. Orange Bowl picking priority means that chances of two ACC BCS teams without FSU being in the championship game are very low if Fresno or Northern Illinois get a BCS slot. To free up that at-large spot, both of them have to lose a game in the next few weeks.

[Olympic Fan]

Orange Bowl gets to pick first for the last three slots. They will not pick Fresno. They might pick UCF for a local draw if they get stuck with Duke. If they get Miami or Clemson, they will most likely pick a B10 or B12 team. Orange Bowl picking priority means that chances of two ACC BCS teams without FSU being in the championship game are very low if Fresno or Northern Illinois get a BCS slot. To free up that at-large spot, both of them have to lose a game in the next few weeks.

Get real ... the Orange Bowl got stuck with Northern Illinois last year because they had the last at large pick and they had to take the non-BCS qualifier.

This year, they get the FIRST at large pick. No way they pick Fresno, Northern Illinois or UCF -- whichever one qualifies (which is not a given).

The first at large team is likely to be Louisville or maybe Stanford. It will be Ohio State if the Buckeyes lose the Big 10 title game ... or it will be Alabama or Oregon if they lose the conference title games. Texas A&M would be attractive if they win out.

But you can bet it will be a big-name BCS team.

Just to be clear -- no more than ONE non-BCS team can qualify -- so it will be Fresno or Northern Illinois (whichever is ranked higher). Not both.

There are 10 BCS berths ... six go to automatic qualifiers (the Big East still gets one). One will probably go to Fresno or NIU. Notre Dame gets one if they finish in the top eight of the BCS (they might if they upset Stanford to end the season). That leaves two at large spots (probably three because Notre Dame is a long-shot). If the Big Four -- Alabama, Oregon, FSU and Ohio State -- win their conference title games it will be interesting for the 2-3 BCS at large teams.

I think Clemson is a lock, IF the Tigers win out to finish 11-1 ... but not in the Orange Bowl -- unless FSU gets the title game, then the Orange would very likely take Clemson.

[Wander]

This year, they get the FIRST at large pick. No way they pick Fresno, Northern Illinois or UCF -- whichever one qualifies (which is not a given).

Just to be clear -- no more than ONE non-BCS team can qualify -- so it will be Fresno or Northern Illinois (whichever is ranked higher). Not both.


UCF is a BCS team these days.

There can be more than one non-BCS team qualifying - TCU and Boise State played each other in a BCS bowl a few years back - although I agree it's EXTREMELY unlikely that it will happen this year.

[Olympic Fan]

UCF is a BCS team these days.

There can be more than one non-BCS team qualifying - TCU and Boise State played each other in a BCS bowl a few years back - although I agree it's EXTREMELY unlikely that it will happen this year.

The rules specifically state that no more than one non-BCS team can qualify for an at large bid:

http://www.bcsfootball.org/news/story?id=4819597

There are a couple of bizarre contingencies that would allow two non-BCS teams (for instance, if non-BCS teams finish 1-2 in the BCS standings), but nothing that would happen in the real world.

I understand that UCF is in the AAC (which still holds the Big East automatic bid). That's why I said that Fresno and Northern Illinois were vying for the at large bid.

UCF is fighting with Houston and Louisville for the AAC's automatic bid ... they COULD earn an at large bid, along with Fresno/NIU, but again, in the real world, they won't -- only if they win their conference automatic bid.

The 2-3 open at large bids will go to Clemson or a top SEC, Pac 12, Big Ten or maybe Big 12 team.

Note: Also no more than two BCS bids per conference

[vick]

The rules specifically state that no more than one non-BCS team can qualify for an at large bid:

http://www.bcsfootball.org/news/story?id=4819597

There are a couple of bizarre contingencies that would allow two non-BCS teams (for instance, if non-BCS teams finish 1-2 in the BCS standings), but nothing that would happen in the real world.

Maybe I'm being dumb but the way I read the rule is that there aren't two automatic non-BCS teams, not a rule that forbids two from receiving bids (though this is all quibbling, since the odds of two being taken even if they can be is low, as Wander said).

[throatybeard]

He meant Ole Miss - at least that's what the ESPN picks have now for the Music City Bowl.

OK, nice save there. Makes more sense.

This still amazes me. Who the heck gets Michigan/Michigan State or UNC/NC State confused with each other? I mean, I get that Mississippi ain't exactly the most famous place in the world, but one school is all about engineering and maroon. The other is all about Faulkner and confederate bears or something.

Ole Miss actually sells T-shirts that say "the Harvard of the South." MSU sells T-shirts that say "the People's University."

The MSU take on OM is that they're composed of elitist dipwads who aren't even that elite, and are much more racist.

The OM take on MSU is similar to the garbage you hear Duke and Carolina people say about NC State. Something about guys humping tractors and bovines. Really condescending junk.

MSU played, and I think beat, Wake Forest in this bowl in 2011.

I still don't understand how anyone mixes up OM and MSU with each other. I've never lived in Oregon, and I can tell Oregon and Oregon State apart.

[BigWayne]

Maybe I'm being dumb but the way I read the rule is that there aren't two automatic non-BCS teams, not a rule that forbids two from receiving bids (though this is all quibbling, since the odds of two being taken even if they can be is low, as Wander said).
The year two non-BCS conference teams got in, it was because the 2nd one qualified as an at large team (Boise St. @ BCS #6 ranking).

At-large picks have to come from the top 14. This year the only non-BCS team that has a chance to be in the top 14 is Fresno, but they only need to get to #16 if UCF/Louisville are ranked behind them as AAC champ. That's how NIU got in last year.

So there are 6 of the 10 slots booked for BCS conf champs.
If FSU is not in the BCS champ game, that probably means Alabama and Oregon are. The replacement picks for them in the Sugar and Rose are almost certainly going to come from the SEC and the PAC12(Stanford). We are now at 8 slots filled. If Fresno or NIU can stay undefeated, they likely pick up the 9th spot, leaving only one true at-large spot. Orange Bowl will not want Fresno or NIU and probably not UCF or Louisville. They are not going to pick Clemson for a rematch with FSU after the spanking they got handed in October. So they will end up picking between the 2nd B12 team (Baylor/OK/OKST) or possibly the loser of the B10 title game. Then the Fiesta and Sugar get stuck with Fresno and UCF.
To get a BCS slot Clemson needs, Alabama or Oregon to lose, Fresno/NIU to both lose, or for Stanford to lose a 3rd game to USC/Cal/ND.

[Reilly]

... The replacement picks for them in the Sugar and Rose are almost certainly going to come from the SEC and the PAC12(Stanford). ...

So Missouri, Auburn, South Carolina and LSU are the currently-top-14-BCS SEC teams that would get the Sugar nod over Clemson, even though Clemson is ranked higher than all of them in the BCS standings. To me, this year, Clemson seems to have more cachet than those SEC schools (and the BCS standings show it) and you gotta figure Clemson fans would show up to the Sugar Bowl in large numbers. And those SEC schools may suffer losses here at the end while Clemson may win out -- maybe CU/SoCar will weigh big?

I have a friend who is an annoying Clemson fan and considers them the equal of the very elite in college football year after year (even though Clemson has all of 1 BCS bowl appearnce in 15 years) -- so I wouldn't mind seeing them snubbed ... though it seems this year they actually might be worthy.

[Reilly]

... elitist dipwads who aren't even that elite...

So Ole Miss is UVa ....

[Wander]

The rules specifically state that no more than one non-BCS team can qualify for an at large bid:

http://www.bcsfootball.org/news/story?id=4819597

There are a couple of bizarre contingencies that would allow two non-BCS teams (for instance, if non-BCS teams finish 1-2 in the BCS standings), but nothing that would happen in the real world.


The rules state exactly the opposite of what you're claiming they state. As I mentioned, this isn't just hypothetical - we've already had a season when two non-BCS teams made BCS bowls. (http://espn.go.com/ncf/recap?id=300042628) Again, I agree it's unlikely to happen this year.

[loran16]

The year two non-BCS conference teams got in, it was because the 2nd one qualified as an at large team (Boise St. @ BCS #6 ranking).

At-large picks have to come from the top 14. This year the only non-BCS team that has a chance to be in the top 14 is Fresno, but they only need to get to #16 if UCF/Louisville are ranked behind them as AAC champ. That's how NIU got in last year.

So there are 6 of the 10 slots booked for BCS conf champs.
If FSU is not in the BCS champ game, that probably means Alabama and Oregon are. The replacement picks for them in the Sugar and Rose are almost certainly going to come from the SEC and the PAC12(Stanford). We are now at 8 slots filled. If Fresno or NIU can stay undefeated, they likely pick up the 9th spot, leaving only one true at-large spot. Orange Bowl will not want Fresno or NIU and probably not UCF or Louisville. They are not going to pick Clemson for a rematch with FSU after the spanking they got handed in October. So they will end up picking between the 2nd B12 team (Baylor/OK/OKST) or possibly the loser of the B10 title game. Then the Fiesta and Sugar get stuck with Fresno and UCF.
To get a BCS slot Clemson needs, Alabama or Oregon to lose, Fresno/NIU to both lose, or for Stanford to lose a 3rd game to USC/Cal/ND.

This is basically correct. The problem is, that if nothing changes, you have the following:
Bama v Oregon - National Title game
Orange Bowl: FSU v X
Rose Bowl: X v OSU
Fiesta Bowl: Baylor v X
Sugar Bowl: X v X

Guaranteed BCS Bids: UCF, Fresno State.

Now Rose is going to pick Stanford and Sugar will pick an SEC team. So suddenly you have one at large spot available.....and due to the likely selections, the bowl that is almost certain to choose that last at-large is the ORANGE bowl...who won't take a second ACC team.

That's the issue.

[duke09hms]

This is basically correct. The problem is, that if nothing changes, you have the following:
Bama v Oregon - National Title game
Orange Bowl: FSU v X
Rose Bowl: X v OSU
Fiesta Bowl: Baylor v X
Sugar Bowl: X v X

Guaranteed BCS Bids: UCF, Fresno State.

Now Rose is going to pick Stanford and Sugar will pick an SEC team. So suddenly you have one at large spot available.....and due to the likely selections, the bowl that is almost certain to choose that last at-large is the ORANGE bowl...who won't take a second ACC team.

That's the issue.

Why is the Orange bowl "almost certain" to choose the last at-large?

[BigWayne]

So Missouri, Auburn, South Carolina and LSU are the currently-top-14-BCS SEC teams that would get the Sugar nod over Clemson, even though Clemson is ranked higher than all of them in the BCS standings. To me, this year, Clemson seems to have more cachet than those SEC schools (and the BCS standings show it) and you gotta figure Clemson fans would show up to the Sugar Bowl in large numbers. And those SEC schools may suffer losses here at the end while Clemson may win out -- maybe CU/SoCar will weigh big?

I have a friend who is an annoying Clemson fan and considers them the equal of the very elite in college football year after year (even though Clemson has all of 1 BCS bowl appearnce in 15 years) -- so I wouldn't mind seeing them snubbed ... though it seems this year they actually might be worthy.
I don't disagree on the merits, but the Sugar Bowl has a tradition of going with the SEC. It's more than just them having the SEC team, it also blocks others. If they pick Clemson, then the Orange Bowl gets to pick an SEC team to play FSU.

[BigWayne]

Why is the Orange bowl "almost certain" to choose the last at-large?

Because they pick first of the last three picks. If Fresno and UCF have bids, the the last two picks are forced to be Fresno/UCF.

[loran16]

Why is the Orange bowl "almost certain" to choose the last at-large?


Heh, I had this slightly reversed with the right outcome.

After Rose and Sugar get first pick of the replacements for the National Title teams, The Orange bowl picks FIRST. At that point, you have the following:

Rose: Stanford v OSU
Sugar: SEC v XXX
Orange: FSU v XXX
Fiesta: B12 v XXX

Orange now has the choice of an at-large - not going to be an acc team vs FSU - or UCF/Fresno. Odds are it picks a big name school as it's a bigger draw. That leaves Fiesta and Sugar with no choice but to pick UCF/Fresno.

[jimsumner]

OK, nice save there. Makes more sense.

This still amazes me. Who the heck gets Michigan/Michigan State or UNC/NC State confused with each other? I mean, I get that Mississippi ain't exactly the most famous place in the world, but one school is all about engineering and maroon. The other is all about Faulkner and confederate bears or something.

Ole Miss actually sells T-shirts that say "the Harvard of the South." MSU sells T-shirts that say "the People's University."

The MSU take on OM is that they're composed of elitist dipwads who aren't even that elite, and are much more racist.

The OM take on MSU is similar to the garbage you hear Duke and Carolina people say about NC State. Something about guys humping tractors and bovines. Really condescending junk.

MSU played, and I think beat, Wake Forest in this bowl in 2011.

I still don't understand how anyone mixes up OM and MSU with each other. I've never lived in Oregon, and I can tell Oregon and Oregon State apart.

Back in the day, NC State played in a bowl game. Can't recall which game specifically but I believe it was out west. Might have been the 1989 Copper Bowl. You remember that one.

In any event, Chris Schenkel kept referring to NC State as North Carolina. Not once but a bunch of times. And he was getting paid to do this.

The folks in Raleigh were none too happy.

[TampaDuke]

Heh, I had this slightly reversed with the right outcome.

After Rose and Sugar get first pick of the replacements for the National Title teams, The Orange bowl picks FIRST. At that point, you have the following:

Rose: Stanford v OSU
Sugar: SEC v XXX
Orange: FSU v XXX
Fiesta: B12 v XXX

Orange now has the choice of an at-large - not going to be an acc team vs FSU - or UCF/Fresno. Odds are it picks a big name school as it's a bigger draw. That leaves Fiesta and Sugar with no choice but to pick UCF/Fresno.

I can't say that I have the slightest clue about how bowls decide who to invite, but I am curious as to why UCF wouldn't get consideration from the Orange in this scenario.

In terms of a bigger draw, are bowls more concerned with the TV audience? Or game attendance and tourism to the City? Since UCF is not a big name, I can see them passed over if TV is the driving force (though it'll be the only bowl game on at the time regardless of participants). If attendance and local buzz are the goals, though, UCF would seem a decent choice given it's something like the second largest university in the nation outside of online schools (and considerably larger than FSU and UF, for example), and the proximity to Miami is ideal.

It's not quite FSU versus Florida, but rivalries among Florida's lesser-known universities (UCF, USF, FIU and FAU) are starting to build some momentum.

[loran16]

I can't say that I have the slightest clue about how bowls decide who to invite, but I am curious as to why UCF wouldn't get consideration from the Orange in this scenario.

In terms of a bigger draw, are bowls more concerned with the TV audience? Or game attendance and tourism to the City? Since UCF is not a big name, I can see them passed over if TV is the driving force (though it'll be the only bowl game on at the time regardless of participants). If attendance and local buzz are the goals, though, UCF would seem a decent choice given it's something like the second largest university in the nation outside of online schools (and considerably larger than FSU and UF, for example), and the proximity to Miami is ideal.

It's not quite FSU versus Florida, but rivalries among Florida's lesser-known universities (UCF, USF, FIU and FAU) are starting to build some momentum.

TV. Tourism to the City is basically minor and the tickets are sold to the schools and public regardless of whether they're used (the schools are forced to eat unused tickets).

UCF is a smaller draw than say Michigan State or Wisconsin (likely possibilities). And those fanbases will travel as well.

[brevity]

Would your rather:

Be in a lower ranked bowl and win

or

Be in a higher ranked bowl and lose

NOT AN OPTION: (win in a higher ranked bowl AKA "GET AN A IN AN AP CLASS")

The straightforward answer to your question? Win in a lower-ranked bowl. It would be historical for the program and a source of momentum for returning players, if there is such a thing as offseason momentum.

The more nuanced answer to your question, and one I haven't seen yet, is that I want them in whichever bowl (higher or lower) has the best name recognition, long-term. It bugs me ever so slightly that Duke's bowl appearance in 1995 was the Hall of Fame Bowl, which no longer exists under that name -- it's now the Outback Bowl. And I have a feeling that the Belk Bowl will not always be called that. ("Yes, Duke is here in Charlotte at its first Bank of America Bowl, but they were here five seasons ago, back when it was called [footnote asterisk snore everyone stopped listening].")

The fly-by-night nature of naming bowl games has negative repercussions on history. It's like being the NIT champion back when that was the more glamorous postseason basketball tournament: great to witnesses, not so great in record books. Over time, and putting aside the Rose, Sugar, Orange, and Fiesta Bowls, I doubt many of us will be able to tell which bowls were better than others. It would be nice to make a bowl that still meant the same thing, say, 20 years later. (In 2033, when people will have forgotten about the BCS, Northern Illinois can still brag about making the Orange Bowl in its 2012-2013 season.)

[BlueDevilinNYC]

...is that I want them in whichever bowl (higher or lower) has the best name recognition, long-term.

So I'm guessing you would be upset if we ever ended up at the "GoDaddy Bowl"?

[Olympic Fan]

I can't say that I have the slightest clue about how bowls decide who to invite, but I am curious as to why UCF wouldn't get consideration from the Orange in this scenario.

In terms of a bigger draw, are bowls more concerned with the TV audience? Or game attendance and tourism to the City? Since UCF is not a big name, I can see them passed over if TV is the driving force (though it'll be the only bowl game on at the time regardless of participants). If attendance and local buzz are the goals, though, UCF would seem a decent choice given it's something like the second largest university in the nation outside of online schools (and considerably larger than FSU and UF, for example), and the proximity to Miami is ideal.

It's not quite FSU versus Florida, but rivalries among Florida's lesser-known universities (UCF, USF, FIU and FAU) are starting to build some momentum.

For the BCS -- TV ratings absolutely trump fannies in the seat. It's different with some of the smaller bowls.

UCF ain't going to the Orange Bowl.

Reminds me of the explanation the old Cotton Bowl boss (back when the Cotton was one of the Big Four bowls) gave to a Houston reporter when he wanted to know why a lower ranked Texas was invited over a great Houston team. "Son," he said. "When Texas plays in the Cotton Bowl, their fans come down, stay in the best hotels and eat at the best restaurants. When we get Texas A&M, their fans drive down the day of the game and stop at the 7-11 and buy snacks. When we have Houston, their fans come down and rob the 7-11 on the way to the game."

The Orange Bowl wants TV exposure. A year after getting stuck with Northern Illinois, no chance in the world they take a no-name UCF team.

[brevity]

So I'm guessing you would be upset if we ever ended up at the "GoDaddy Bowl"?

I had to look that up. That is a real thing. Wow.

Put it this way: Northern Illinois won the 2012 GoDaddy Bowl and lost the 2013 Orange Bowl. Which do you think will be remembered?

[wilson]

Northern Illinois won the 2012 GoDaddy Bowl and lost the 2013 Orange Bowl. Which do you think will be remembered?Neither one (seriously).

[brevity]

Neither one (seriously).

Apologies. I took my own statement out of context. I meant among Northern Illinois' fanbase:


It would be nice to make a bowl that still meant the same thing, say, 20 years later. (In 2033, when people will have forgotten about the BCS, Northern Illinois can still brag about making the Orange Bowl in its 2012-2013 season.)


Put it this way: Northern Illinois won the 2012 GoDaddy Bowl and lost the 2013 Orange Bowl. Which do you think will be remembered?

[sagegrouse]

I had to look that up. That is a real thing. Wow.

Put it this way: Northern Illinois won the 2012 GoDaddy Bowl and lost the 2013 Orange Bowl. Which do you think will be remembered?


Neither one (seriously).

Northern Illinois will remember both; no one else will remember either one.

sage

[throatybeard]

Reminds me of the explanation the old Cotton Bowl boss (back when the Cotton was one of the Big Four bowls) gave to a Houston reporter when he wanted to know why a lower ranked Texas was invited over a great Houston team. "Son," he said. "When Texas plays in the Cotton Bowl, their fans come down, stay in the best hotels and eat at the best restaurants. When we get Texas A&M, their fans drive down the day of the game and stop at the 7-11 and buy snacks. When we have Houston, their fans come down and rob the 7-11 on the way to the game."

How incredibly snotty.

Wouldn't surprise me if said Cotton Bowl boss was exactly the sort of UT alum that is so ubiquitous that four schools saw fit to get the heck out of the conference to get away from UT.