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View Full Version : Preaseason MBB Coaches' Poll Released



Bluedog
10-17-2013, 01:56 PM
http://tracking.si.com/2013/10/17/kentucky-no-1-college-basketball-poll/
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaab/polls/

1. Kentucky (16)
2. Michigan State (3)
3. Louisville (10)
4. Duke (3)
5. Arizona
6. Kansas
7. Syracuse
8. Florida
9. Michigan
10. Ohio State
11. North Carolina
12. Oklahoma State
13. Memphis
14. Gonzaga
15. VCU
16. Wichita State
17. Marquette
18. Oregon
19. Connecticut
20. New Mexico
21. Wisconsin
22. Notre Dame
23. UCLA
24. Indiana
25. Virginia

ACC representation bolded. North Carolina overrated and UVa underrated, in my mind.

Duke plays 5 (hopefully), 6, 7 (x2), 9, 11 (x2), 22, 23, and 25 - wow!

flyingdutchdevil
10-17-2013, 02:03 PM
http://tracking.si.com/2013/10/17/kentucky-no-1-college-basketball-poll/
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaab/polls/

1. Kentucky (16)
2. Michigan State (3)
3. Louisville (10)
4. Duke (3)
5. Arizona
6. Kansas
7. Syracuse
8. Florida
9. Michigan
10. Ohio State
11. North Carolina
12. Oklahoma State
13. Memphis
14. Gonzaga
15. VCU
16. Wichita State
17. Marquette
18. Oregon
19. Connecticut
20. New Mexico
21. Wisconsin
22. Notre Dame
23. UCLA
24. Indiana
25. Virginia

ACC representation bolded. North Carolina overrated and UVa underrated, in my mind.

Duke plays 5 (hopefully), 6, 7 (x2), 9, 11 (x2), 22, 23, and 25 - wow!

I have a tough time arguing with the top 9. I not only think that they are the appropriate top 9, but also the order is fairly accurate. I can't argue with the top 4 at all. I think those 4 teams deserve to be there in that order: Kentucky is the most talented team in the country, bar none. Michigan State combines the best balance of talent and experience (here comes Izzo). Louisville still has Russ Smith and really good role players. Duke has the best 1-4 in the country.

The only issue I have is Arizona over Kansas. I don't really see that happening, especially because Kansas - as of right now - is Kentucky light: plenty of freshman talent. Arizona is also Kentucky-light, but they don't have the same talent as Kansas. Teams 7-10 can cause havoc on any given night, but I don't think they're in the same league talent-wise as the first 6 teams.

Kedsy
10-17-2013, 02:13 PM
I have a tough time arguing with the top 9. I not only think that they are the appropriate top 9, but also the order is fairly accurate. I can't argue with the top 4 at all. I think those 4 teams deserve to be there in that order: Kentucky is the most talented team in the country, bar none. Michigan State combines the best balance of talent and experience (here comes Izzo). Louisville still has Russ Smith and really good role players. Duke has the best 1-4 in the country.

The only issue I have is Arizona over Kansas. I don't really see that happening, especially because Kansas - as of right now - is Kentucky light: plenty of freshman talent. Arizona is also Kentucky-light, but they don't have the same talent as Kansas. Teams 7-10 can cause havoc on any given night, but I don't think they're in the same league talent-wise as the first 6 teams.

I think Louisville and Michigan State are overrated in this poll. Kansas and Florida may be underrated (or may not, depends on freshmen, as does Arizona, as you point out). UNC is way overrated.

FerryFor50
10-17-2013, 02:17 PM
I think Louisville and Michigan State are overrated in this poll. Kansas and Florida may be underrated (or may not, depends on freshmen, as does Arizona, as you point out). UNC is way overrated.

Agreed on MSU and L'ville. I think MSU is good, but not #2 good.

And L'ville is basically Russ Smith and Montrezl Harrell right now. Neither is good enough to make them a #3 team.

luburch
10-17-2013, 02:22 PM
Louisville's Behanan is suspended indefinitely.

Dev11
10-17-2013, 02:26 PM
I wouldn't be surprised to see BC and Maryland creep in by year's end, although I'm sure I'd be happier if Maryland ends up 0-18 in conference.

ChillinDuke
10-17-2013, 02:36 PM
Agreed on MSU and L'ville. I think MSU is good, but not #2 good.

And L'ville is basically Russ Smith and Montrezl Harrell right now. Neither is good enough to make them a #3 team.

They do have some other very nice pieces. Behanan and Hancock to name two that I can remember. But I have a buddy who keeps harping on a guard transfer (Juco or 5th year or something) that L'Ville has that is supposed to be very good. He went so far as to say "Siva-like".

Even if this guy is "Siva light", well that's a pretty nice addition.

- Chillin

flyingdutchdevil
10-17-2013, 02:40 PM
I think Louisville and Michigan State are overrated in this poll. Kansas and Florida may be underrated (or may not, depends on freshmen, as does Arizona, as you point out). UNC is way overrated.

I think it depends on how much you value experience. In the top 10, I'd argue that Michigan State and Louisville are the two most experienced teams. I think Michigan State is deserving of its #2 ranking, especially considering that they went 27-9 (13-5 in the insane Big Ten) last year. Louisville loses their #1 leader and top shot blocker, but Russ Smith may be the most lethal guard in the country and they have great role players (although sounds like Chane Behanan will be out for some time: http://tracking.si.com/2013/10/17/louisville-suspends-chane-behanan-violation-school-policy/).

I'd agree with you that Kansas may need to be ranked higher, but I disagree about Florida. While they were consistent last year (and Saragin loved them), I don't see either the talent nor experience as some of the other teams.

Bluedog
10-17-2013, 03:25 PM
Year Pre-Season Final AP NCAA Result
2002–2003 9 NR NCAA Elite Eight
2003–2004 3 NR NCAA First Round
2004–2005 13 15 NCAA Final Four
2005–2006 4 NR NCAA First Round
2006–2007 NR NR NCAA Second Round
2007–2008 8 18 NCAA Sweet Sixteen
2008–2009 6 8 NCAA Runner-Up
2009–2010 2 13 NCAA Final Four
2010–2011 2 NR NCAA Second Round
2011–2012 NR 5 NCAA Sweet Sixteen
2012–2013 14 9 NCAA Sweet Sixteen

Over the last 11 seasons, MSU has been pre-season Top 10 an impressive 7 times. Four of those times (57%), they dropped out of the rankings completely be the end of the season (final AP poll before the NCAA tournament). Of those 7 times, they made it to the Final Four twice (29%), Elite 8 once (14%), and first or second round three times (43%). In other words, as a pre-season top 10 team, they have been just as likely to lose in the first 2 rounds as make the Elite 8 or more. Over this time frame, MSU has been more likely to drop out completely of the top 25 at the end of the season than to stay in the top 25. They have improved their ranking from the beginning to the end of the season twice (18%) - the last two seasons in which they made it to the Sweet Sixteen. Not sure the above means much for this team, but still found it interesting. Obviously, if you go back even further the numbers may be different.

plimnko
10-17-2013, 03:49 PM
http://tracking.si.com/2013/10/17/louisville-suspends-chane-behanan-violation-school-policy/?sct=hp_t2_a7&eref=sihp

how do you think this affects louisville's ranking?

moonpie23
10-17-2013, 03:52 PM
pre-season polls are hilarious....

Olympic Fan
10-17-2013, 04:38 PM
Agreed on MSU and L'ville. I think MSU is good, but not #2 good.

And L'ville is basically Russ Smith and Montrezl Harrell right now. Neither is good enough to make them a #3 team.

I don't get this ... the defending national champs return three starters -- and Harrell is not one of them.

Senior Luke Hancock was major factor during the title run. Russ Smith is a preseason All-American. Agree that Behannan's suspension hurts, if he's out an extended period. But remember, PJ Hairston was also "suspended indefinitely" and he's only going to miss a handful of games.

They add the juco national player of the year in guard Chris Jones. They have a solid swing man in Wayne Blackshear (7.6 ppg, 3.1 rpg last year as sophomore sixth man). The should be getting Ware back over the course of the season.

They have A LOT of weapons -- more than just Smith and Harrell. No. 3? As good a pick as any.

OldPhiKap
10-17-2013, 04:43 PM
http://tracking.si.com/2013/10/17/louisville-suspends-chane-behanan-violation-school-policy/?sct=hp_t2_a7&eref=sihp

how do you think this affects louisville's ranking?

Pitino has more credibility than ol' Roy. Who knew.

flyingdutchdevil
10-17-2013, 04:46 PM
I don't get this ... the defending national champs return three starters -- and Harrell is not one of them.

Senior Luke Hancock was major factor during the title run. Russ Smith is a preseason All-American. Agree that Behannan's suspension hurts, if he's out an extended period. But remember, PJ Hairston was also "suspended indefinitely" and he's only going to miss a handful of games.

They add the juco national player of the year in guard Chris Jones. They have a solid swing man in Wayne Blackshear (7.6 ppg, 3.1 rpg last year as sophomore sixth man). The should be getting Ware back over the course of the season.

They have A LOT of weapons -- more than just Smith and Harrell. No. 3? As good a pick as any.

Smith scored 17 and 23 points against us last year. He is an absolute stud. Props to Pitino for developing the player and somehow convincing him to stay. IMO, Russ Smith staying for his senior year was more surprising than Marcus Smart.

Of all the players next year, I am not worried about facing Smith. I do think he's that good.

Bluedog
10-17-2013, 04:53 PM
pre-season polls are hilarious....

True, but I believe it was Pomeroy who analyzed the data and showed that the pre-season #1 historically has been more likely to win the NCAA tournament than the final team ranked #1. That is, after 30+ games of evidence during a season, voters are LESS likely to be able to pick the champion (although you could argue that not all voters choose the #1 team based solely on who they think is going to win the tournament, but they have to be pretty closely aligned....).

Kedsy
10-17-2013, 05:06 PM
Even if this guy is "Siva light", well that's a pretty nice addition.


Even if the guy is just as good as Siva (which is a longshot), Louisville should not be ranked in the top 3. They lost their most important player (Dieng) and have no newcomers at his position. I'll be shocked if Louisville is even in the top 5 at season's end, although since they play in the watered-down AAC, I suppose it's possible they cruise through the season like Calipari's old Memphis teams.


Smith scored 17 and 23 points against us last year. He is an absolute stud.

Smith is good, but he's streaky and not very efficient. He used 32% of his team's possessions last year but only managed an oRtg of 108.9, which is good but not close to "stud-like" (Trey Burke's oRtg, in contrast, was 121.2, using 29% of his team's possessions).

flyingdutchdevil
10-17-2013, 05:16 PM
Even if the guy is just as good as Siva (which is a longshot), Louisville should not be ranked in the top 3. They lost their most important player (Dieng) and have no newcomers at his position. I'll be shocked if Louisville is even in the top 5 at season's end, although since they play in the watered-down AAC, I suppose it's possible they cruise through the season like Calipari's old Memphis teams.



Smith is good, but he's streaky and not very efficient. He used 32% of his team's possessions last year but only managed an oRtg of 108.9, which is good but not close to "stud-like" (Trey Burke's oRtg, in contrast, was 121.2, using 29% of his team's possessions).

To each his own. He cut through our D like butter in the Elite Eight game. He may take a lot of shots, but I'd rather have him on my team than play against him.

If Smith can be a more cerebral player like Siva but hold on to his athleticism, I'd never want to face that guy. I guess that's why he stayed another year.

FerryFor50
10-17-2013, 05:21 PM
I don't get this ... the defending national champs return three starters -- and Harrell is not one of them.

Senior Luke Hancock was major factor during the title run. Russ Smith is a preseason All-American. Agree that Behannan's suspension hurts, if he's out an extended period. But remember, PJ Hairston was also "suspended indefinitely" and he's only going to miss a handful of games.

They add the juco national player of the year in guard Chris Jones. They have a solid swing man in Wayne Blackshear (7.6 ppg, 3.1 rpg last year as sophomore sixth man). The should be getting Ware back over the course of the season.

They have A LOT of weapons -- more than just Smith and Harrell. No. 3? As good a pick as any.

I stand by my statement. No one else on L'ville impresses me, regardless if they started or not.

wk2109
10-17-2013, 05:31 PM
IMO, Russ Smith staying for his senior year was more surprising than Marcus Smart.

Marcus Smart was projected as a top-5 pick while Russ Smith was projected to go second round or undrafted. Why would Marcus Smart's decision to stay be more surprising?


Of all the players next year, I am not worried about facing Smith. I do think he's that good.

I assume you mean "most worried" and not "not worried." I also think he's a very good college player, but I don't think he's going to live up to the first-team All-America predictions I've been seeing. He's too small and inconsistent to be really dominant for an entire season.

FerryFor50
10-17-2013, 05:54 PM
Marcus Smart was projected as a top-5 pick while Russ Smith was projected to go second round or undrafted. Why would Marcus Smart's decision to stay be more surprising?



I assume you mean "most worried" and not "not worried." I also think he's a very good college player, but I don't think he's going to live up to the first-team All-America predictions I've been seeing. He's too small and inconsistent to be really dominant for an entire season.

Agree. I think he benefitted a lot from being on the floor with Siva. Now, if the juco transfer is as good as people are saying, different story.

Olympic Fan
10-17-2013, 06:32 PM
I stand by my statement. No one else on L'ville impresses me, regardless if they started or not.

Fair enough, but you sound like one of those Duke haters I read on other boards -- who talk about how they weren't impressed by Jefferson last year or how Duke is counting on a guy whop was good but not great at Miss State two years ago and a freshman.

You might not be impressed by Hancock and Behannon, but if they are good enough to start on a national title team -- and both were key players during the title run -- don't they deserve to count for something?

Louisville lost two players off the best team in the country last year (maybe three, depending on Ware's improvement -- but they did win two in the FF without him).

They've replaced Silva with the best juco player in the country. They'll try to replace Dieng with Harrell -- a good player, but certainly a different one. They'll attempt to replace Harrell with 6-9, 240-pound Akoy Agau. And we haven't mentioned five-star guard Terry Rozier, a postgrad pickup from Shaker Heights prep school.

There is a reason that Louisville is ranked top 5 in almost every preseason projection I've seen. It might not be the right pick, but it's hardly a crazy pick.

And they certainly have a lot more weapons than Smith and Harrell.

NSDukeFan
10-17-2013, 06:39 PM
I stand by my statement. No one else on L'ville impresses me, regardless if they started or not.

Did you miss Duke's final game last year? I was certainly impressed.

FerryFor50
10-17-2013, 07:20 PM
Did you miss Duke's final game last year? I was certainly impressed.

I was impressed by Smith. And Siva. And Dieng.

No one else.

FerryFor50
10-17-2013, 07:25 PM
Fair enough, but you sound like one of those Duke haters I read on other boards -- who talk about how they weren't impressed by Jefferson last year or how Duke is counting on a guy whop was good but not great at Miss State two years ago and a freshman.

You might not be impressed by Hancock and Behannon, but if they are good enough to start on a national title team -- and both were key players during the title run -- don't they deserve to count for something?

Louisville lost two players off the best team in the country last year (maybe three, depending on Ware's improvement -- but they did win two in the FF without him).

They've replaced Silva with the best juco player in the country. They'll try to replace Dieng with Harrell -- a good player, but certainly a different one. They'll attempt to replace Harrell with 6-9, 240-pound Akoy Agau. And we haven't mentioned five-star guard Terry Rozier, a postgrad pickup from Shaker Heights prep school.

There is a reason that Louisville is ranked top 5 in almost every preseason projection I've seen. It might not be the right pick, but it's hardly a crazy pick.

And they certainly have a lot more weapons than Smith and Harrell.

I disagree. I think they won the title because of the emergence of Smith and Dieng, the inspiration of playing for Ware after his injury, Pitino and the fact they faced a Duke team out of sync with Kelly's return.

Their press defense (and the fact that they got away with a lot of grabbing) had something to do with it. (Yes, that last bit was a little bit of "hate," but more for the Big East brand of basketball)

I don't know enough about their juco transfer to be impressed. Behanen is out for now, but even so, he's not as good as Dieng.

Hancock? Meh. Ware? Hard to say, plus he is coming off a pretty major injury.

It's not "hate" to think they aren't a #3 team. I still think they are top 10 worthy based on Smith and Harrell alone. I am just not convinced the other pieces are enough.

Double DD
10-17-2013, 09:41 PM
http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/your_2013_kpoy_russ_smith

Russ Smith was Ken Pomeroy's Player of the Year last year based on the formula he uses to rank players. He and Doug McDermott are the only returning players from Pomeroy's top 10. Smith's a player who I took some time coming around on because of those shooting percentages. But his brand of chaos clearly works extremely well.

subzero02
10-17-2013, 10:48 PM
Smith is a great player but Dieng would be a greater concern for this year's Duke team... We will be great at guarding perimeter players and limiting penetration... Our post defense could be another story

Wander
10-17-2013, 10:55 PM
They lost their most important player (Dieng) and have no newcomers at his position.

Couldn't you say the same thing about us?

Kedsy
10-17-2013, 11:16 PM
Couldn't you say the same thing about us?

I suppose you could. The difference in my mind is Louisville projects to play the same style as last year, with lesser pieces. Duke projects to play a completely different style and overall will be a better team.

I just don't think Louisville is top 5 material. I think they're getting a bump because of last year's performance.

ice-9
10-18-2013, 02:07 AM
I was impressed by Smith. And Siva. And Dieng.

No one else.

I completely agree with this assessment. Siva was the engine that made the Louisville team run. He directed the offense and was the guy who got people their shots. He was a maestro and filling his shoes won't be easy. I don't expect Smith to be as good without Siva helping him. For one, without Siva to worry about, it'll be much easier to design the defense to stopping Smith.

As for Dieng, Louisville was a completely different team without him. Without him, the Cardinals would have been merely top 10 instead of national champs -- just look at the difference between our two games with them. So even if you assume this year's Louisville team had a capable Siva replacement, and I doubt they do, without Dieng there's a ceiling as to how good they can be.

Take them both out of the equation and I'd be surprised (and impressed with Pitino) if Louisville make the Final four.

subzero02
10-18-2013, 06:15 PM
They are showing a live look-in of of Louisvile's practice... Based on these 2 minutes of footage, there's no way they are a top 5 team ;-)