loran16
10-05-2013, 07:55 PM
To start this season, Bob Green asked seven questions of Duke Football, and Duke has answered these questions in various ways over the first 5 games. Now we enter a 3 game stretch in between Duke's two bye weeks, which mean's it's time for a second set of questions for Duke Football to answer. A note, Phase II of the Duke Football season covers the game at home against Navy next week, the game at UVA, and finally the game at Virginia Tech.
Question 0: Can the team stay healthy?
Yeah I'm cheating - the injury question is so big I'm not even counting it as one of the seven questions but adding it as an extra one. Duke suffered some big injuries in the first part of this season, most obviously Boone, but also Jela Duncan this past game (though he's apparently likely to go for Navy) and both Kelby and Kyler Brown. Can Duke manage to stay healthy as some of these guys (namely Boone) come back? That'll be key - unlike the elite ACC teams, Duke can't simply replace guys with ease.
Question 1: Can Connette continue to find success as the main Quarterback?
We didn't expect Brandon Connette to be our main quarterback this season - but he has performed better than we probably could've hoped. Nearly 9 yards per passing attempt, 11 TDs to 6 Interceptions, and of course 224 yards on the ground. The rushing #s aren't surprising, but it used to be the case that Duke fans would cringe when Connette would take to the air. Not as much anymore.
That said, Connette has shown cracks at times - he can be inaccurate and against better teams (Pitt and GT), he has been a bit less careful with the ball - 4 of his 6 interceptions came against Pitt. The Defenses ahead are only going to get more challenging - that's the one thing UVA does well, for instance - and he will have to be careful not to turn it over. The same is true for Anthony Boone if he returns during this phase - he's likely to be rusty at best and a few inopportune picks could sink this team's chances.
Question 2: Can Duke continue to run the ball effectively between its multiple backs?
One of the more frustrating things of Duke under David Cutcliffe was that he would treat the Offense as a traditional offense with an effective running game. But really, Duke's running game under Cut has been mediocre at best, failing to average more than 3.7 yards per carry under Cut, and often being a good deal worse.
Not this year. Duke's 3 running backs have managed to average 4.8 yards per carry, which is pretty damn good, with both Jela Duncan (5.3 ypc) and Josh Snead (6.3 ypc) being incredibly good. I haven't agreed in the past with Duke's rotation of running backs, but it's hard to deny that the running game is really good this year.
Or at least so far. Duke now faces yet again tougher defenses, who will be more able to take away the run. Can Duke continue to run effectively, keeping defenses more honest? That's a crucial part to continued offensive success.
Question 3: Will any receiver step up to become a reliable 2nd or 3rd option for our QB(s)?
Last year, Duke had 3 WRs who were extremely reliable in Vernon, Crowder, and Desmond Scott. Crowder has remained reliable, managing to make more catches per game this year than last year somehow. But Duke's #2 receiver has been unclear - 3 guys (McCaffrey, Deaver, and Braxton) have 11-14 catches, a third of Crowder's #, but none of them have stepped up to be a solid receiver Connette can trust if Crowder isn't open.
Again, facing tougher defenses going forward, one of the other receivers probably needs to step up to help Connette when he has less time to react and Crowder is likely to be guarded more effectively. Can any of them do it?
Question 4: Can the team continue to defend conventional running games well and can they adapt that to handle the option?
Duke's run defense is actually not horrible this year - particularly against conventional runs up the middle. Pitt averaged only 3.8 YPC, Troy 3.7, etc. But less conventional running games, particularly multi-option runs, have driven Duke's D nuts. And what do you know, we play another team like that in Navy next week.
Navy won't be as unconventional as Georgia Tech (expect a lot less Diamond formation), but Duke will need to find a way to stop multiple options to force punts, so its offense can handle those runs. And Navy won't be the only opponent throwing unconventional rushing plays into their schemes every now and then (Pitt did it as well), so Duke needs to step up dealing with these things.
Question 5: Can the Defensive Line and Linebackers put any pressure on opposing QBs?
Okay, let's be honest here: Duke has basically put no pressure whatsoever on opposing QBs. Coming into this week, we were tied with Wake for a tie for 11th with only 8 sacks in 5 games. And even when we're not sacking QBs, we're rarely putting up major pressure. That's why both Pitt and Troy's QBs could pick our D apart - they had all day most of the time to find the open receiver. Again, better offenses are coming, and if you let them have all day, we're gonna have a bad time.
Question 6: Can the Secondary cover bigger and better receivers?
Ross Cockrell is good. On the other hand, he's basically been the only reasonably reliable defender in the secondary, which has been given a ton of responsibility due to our lack off a pass rush. And bad news guys: the coming teams likely have better WRs to cover. Yikes!
The D solidifying in the secondary could really be huge as we have given up way too many big plays in the first 5 games. Preventing those going forward is going to be key as opponents become more able to go for those big shots.
Question 7: Can the kicking game return to its excellence from last year?
The weirdest dropoff from last year by Duke has been in the kicking game. Ross Martin is 2/4 after being 20/23 last year, with both misses being from inside 40 yards. We can't afford to kick too many FGs due to our D, but we really can't afford to miss any. Apparently Ross has been struggling in practice too.
Will Monday has also had problems. His average is right in line with last year, but he's had a few shanks in crucial games which really is not acceptable. Our D has enough problems as it is, giving opponents a shorter field is something we cannot afford.
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Duke will probably be favored to beat Navy but will be slight underdogs to UVA and big ones to VT. Winning one game keeps bowl hopes alive but gives Duke nearly no margin for error. Winning two puts Duke in good shape, with 2-3 winnable games coming up in Phase 3 (Wake, NC State, UNC).
Let's go Duke!
Question 0: Can the team stay healthy?
Yeah I'm cheating - the injury question is so big I'm not even counting it as one of the seven questions but adding it as an extra one. Duke suffered some big injuries in the first part of this season, most obviously Boone, but also Jela Duncan this past game (though he's apparently likely to go for Navy) and both Kelby and Kyler Brown. Can Duke manage to stay healthy as some of these guys (namely Boone) come back? That'll be key - unlike the elite ACC teams, Duke can't simply replace guys with ease.
Question 1: Can Connette continue to find success as the main Quarterback?
We didn't expect Brandon Connette to be our main quarterback this season - but he has performed better than we probably could've hoped. Nearly 9 yards per passing attempt, 11 TDs to 6 Interceptions, and of course 224 yards on the ground. The rushing #s aren't surprising, but it used to be the case that Duke fans would cringe when Connette would take to the air. Not as much anymore.
That said, Connette has shown cracks at times - he can be inaccurate and against better teams (Pitt and GT), he has been a bit less careful with the ball - 4 of his 6 interceptions came against Pitt. The Defenses ahead are only going to get more challenging - that's the one thing UVA does well, for instance - and he will have to be careful not to turn it over. The same is true for Anthony Boone if he returns during this phase - he's likely to be rusty at best and a few inopportune picks could sink this team's chances.
Question 2: Can Duke continue to run the ball effectively between its multiple backs?
One of the more frustrating things of Duke under David Cutcliffe was that he would treat the Offense as a traditional offense with an effective running game. But really, Duke's running game under Cut has been mediocre at best, failing to average more than 3.7 yards per carry under Cut, and often being a good deal worse.
Not this year. Duke's 3 running backs have managed to average 4.8 yards per carry, which is pretty damn good, with both Jela Duncan (5.3 ypc) and Josh Snead (6.3 ypc) being incredibly good. I haven't agreed in the past with Duke's rotation of running backs, but it's hard to deny that the running game is really good this year.
Or at least so far. Duke now faces yet again tougher defenses, who will be more able to take away the run. Can Duke continue to run effectively, keeping defenses more honest? That's a crucial part to continued offensive success.
Question 3: Will any receiver step up to become a reliable 2nd or 3rd option for our QB(s)?
Last year, Duke had 3 WRs who were extremely reliable in Vernon, Crowder, and Desmond Scott. Crowder has remained reliable, managing to make more catches per game this year than last year somehow. But Duke's #2 receiver has been unclear - 3 guys (McCaffrey, Deaver, and Braxton) have 11-14 catches, a third of Crowder's #, but none of them have stepped up to be a solid receiver Connette can trust if Crowder isn't open.
Again, facing tougher defenses going forward, one of the other receivers probably needs to step up to help Connette when he has less time to react and Crowder is likely to be guarded more effectively. Can any of them do it?
Question 4: Can the team continue to defend conventional running games well and can they adapt that to handle the option?
Duke's run defense is actually not horrible this year - particularly against conventional runs up the middle. Pitt averaged only 3.8 YPC, Troy 3.7, etc. But less conventional running games, particularly multi-option runs, have driven Duke's D nuts. And what do you know, we play another team like that in Navy next week.
Navy won't be as unconventional as Georgia Tech (expect a lot less Diamond formation), but Duke will need to find a way to stop multiple options to force punts, so its offense can handle those runs. And Navy won't be the only opponent throwing unconventional rushing plays into their schemes every now and then (Pitt did it as well), so Duke needs to step up dealing with these things.
Question 5: Can the Defensive Line and Linebackers put any pressure on opposing QBs?
Okay, let's be honest here: Duke has basically put no pressure whatsoever on opposing QBs. Coming into this week, we were tied with Wake for a tie for 11th with only 8 sacks in 5 games. And even when we're not sacking QBs, we're rarely putting up major pressure. That's why both Pitt and Troy's QBs could pick our D apart - they had all day most of the time to find the open receiver. Again, better offenses are coming, and if you let them have all day, we're gonna have a bad time.
Question 6: Can the Secondary cover bigger and better receivers?
Ross Cockrell is good. On the other hand, he's basically been the only reasonably reliable defender in the secondary, which has been given a ton of responsibility due to our lack off a pass rush. And bad news guys: the coming teams likely have better WRs to cover. Yikes!
The D solidifying in the secondary could really be huge as we have given up way too many big plays in the first 5 games. Preventing those going forward is going to be key as opponents become more able to go for those big shots.
Question 7: Can the kicking game return to its excellence from last year?
The weirdest dropoff from last year by Duke has been in the kicking game. Ross Martin is 2/4 after being 20/23 last year, with both misses being from inside 40 yards. We can't afford to kick too many FGs due to our D, but we really can't afford to miss any. Apparently Ross has been struggling in practice too.
Will Monday has also had problems. His average is right in line with last year, but he's had a few shanks in crucial games which really is not acceptable. Our D has enough problems as it is, giving opponents a shorter field is something we cannot afford.
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Duke will probably be favored to beat Navy but will be slight underdogs to UVA and big ones to VT. Winning one game keeps bowl hopes alive but gives Duke nearly no margin for error. Winning two puts Duke in good shape, with 2-3 winnable games coming up in Phase 3 (Wake, NC State, UNC).
Let's go Duke!