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JasonEvans
10-02-2013, 06:19 PM
Massachussetts big man Goodluck Okonoboh is going to announce his college decision tomorrow night. Although he had Duke in his final group, there appear to be no signs pointing to him committing to the Blue Devils.

247 Sports has 23 predictions (http://247sports.com/Player/Goodluck-Okonoboh-15203/PlayerInstitutionPredictions) of where he is going to go. 22 of them, including our own Adam Rowe, say Indiana is getting him. Many of the predictions date back to mid-summer so Indiana has been the perceived leader for quite a while. It is worth noting that one person picked Ohio State and made that prediction just a couple days ago. We shall see!

-Jason "kinda cool -- I'm loving 247 Sports prediction feature!" Evans

JasonEvans
10-02-2013, 10:18 PM
247 Sports has 23 predictions (http://247sports.com/Player/Goodluck-Okonoboh-15203/PlayerInstitutionPredictions) of where he is going to go. 22 of them, including our own Adam Rowe, say Indiana is getting him. Many of the predictions date back to mid-summer so Indiana has been the perceived leader for quite a while. It is worth noting that one person picked Ohio State and made that prediction just a couple days ago. We shall see!

-Jason "kinda cool -- I'm loving 247 Sports prediction feature!" Evans

WHOA!!! There has been a flurry of new predictions on the 247 site and they make this a much more interesting race. In the past few hours, 5 new recruiting gurus have made predictions and 4 of them are Ohio State. One of them, Jeff Borzello of CBS, says Okonoboh is going to UNLV.

So, we have this long run of everyone saying Indiana and then suddenly, with only hours left until the decision is announced, there is a rush of Ohio State picks.

-Jason "glad I am not an IU fan, as this would have me truly freaking out right now!" Evans

ChillinDuke
10-03-2013, 09:05 AM
WHOA!!! There has been a flurry of new predictions on the 247 site and they make this a much more interesting race. In the past few hours, 5 new recruiting gurus have made predictions and 4 of them are Ohio State. One of them, Jeff Borzello of CBS, says Okonoboh is going to UNLV.

So, we have this long run of everyone saying Indiana and then suddenly, with only hours left until the decision is announced, there is a rush of Ohio State picks.

-Jason "glad I am not an IU fan, as this would have me truly freaking out right now!" Evans

This is exactly why I think I'm going to love the 247 Crystal Ball concept. If done the right way, it's simple to get an average days correct on predicting where recruits will go and these 5 new recruiting gurus would be pretty low on that scale. Quickly, we would be able to see who has a good track record predicting recruits (granted, a "good" record may be well under 50%) and which people are better at which school, etc. And then if I were designing, a weighted average rating on where recruits are predicted based on an analyst's average days correct. Or something like this.

I'm in.

- Chillin

dukedoc
10-03-2013, 10:00 AM
This is exactly why I think I'm going to love the 247 Crystal Ball concept. If done the right way, it's simple to get an average days correct on predicting where recruits will go and these 5 new recruiting gurus would be pretty low on that scale. Quickly, we would be able to see who has a good track record predicting recruits (granted, a "good" record may be well under 50%) and which people are better at which school, etc. And then if I were designing, a weighted average rating on where recruits are predicted based on an analyst's average days correct. Or something like this.

I agree that the concept is interesting and fun. Regardless of how you analyze it though, it will always be inherently limited because it isn't blinded. There's no way to blind it and yet allow it to retain its commercial appeal to us pedestrian fans. As an extreme example, analyst B could always link hips virtually with supreme expert A and have a very similar 247 "correctness" rating, all the while, never contributing anything meanful him- or herself.

In general I love the concept though because it saves me time in scouring twitter for tweets from these people. Sad, I know. Sigh.

flyingdutchdevil
10-03-2013, 10:19 AM
This is exactly why I think I'm going to love the 247 Crystal Ball concept. If done the right way, it's simple to get an average days correct on predicting where recruits will go and these 5 new recruiting gurus would be pretty low on that scale. Quickly, we would be able to see who has a good track record predicting recruits (granted, a "good" record may be well under 50%) and which people are better at which school, etc. And then if I were designing, a weighted average rating on where recruits are predicted based on an analyst's average days correct. Or something like this.

I'm in.

- Chillin

I am excited and pissed off all at the same time. 247 Crystal Ball makes the recruiting game even more fun to follow and provides us with even more speculation and talking points (which is always a good thing, especially in the summer!).

However, it's terrible for my emotional stability, my "hatred" of the recruiting process, and getting my hopes up and down like a roller coaster.

I am amazed how much we love recruiting. It's like a drug, only that you probably waste more time and may not have to go to rehab (great idea - college recruiting rehab. My idea first!)

Bluedog
10-03-2013, 10:32 AM
247 Sports has 23 predictions (http://247sports.com/Player/Goodluck-Okonoboh-15203/PlayerInstitutionPredictions) of where he is going to go. 22 of them, including our own Adam Rowe, say Indiana is getting him. Many of the predictions date back to mid-summer so Indiana has been the perceived leader for quite a while. It is worth noting that one person picked Ohio State and made that prediction just a couple days ago. We shall see!

-Jason "kinda cool -- I'm loving 247 Sports prediction feature!" Evans

Adam Rowe has now changed his prediction to UNLV....hmmmm. It seems like there is a lot of movement in the last day of predictions making somebody's % accurate rate perhaps a bit flawed. If somebody chooses the wrong school for the five months leading up to it, but then changes it the day of to the correct one, he/she gets credit for a correct prediction. (Of course, the inverse is true as well.) I guess that's why people had suggested accuracy based on days out, etc. They're probably not collecting that historical data, though, and just store the last prediction. But that would be nice. Either way, a cool feature.

flyingdutchdevil
10-03-2013, 10:36 AM
Adam Rowe has now changed his prediction to UNLV....hmmmm. It seems like there is a lot of movement in the last day of predictions making somebody's % accurate rate perhaps a bit flawed. If somebody chooses the wrong school for the five months leading up to it, but then changes it the day of to the correct one, he/she gets credit for a correct prediction. (Of course, the inverse is true as well.) I guess that's why people had suggested accuracy based on days out, etc. They're probably not collecting that historical data, though, and just store the last prediction. But that would be nice. Either way, a cool feature.

It's not a good sign for Indiana when the Indiana Insider selects Ohio State. This is turning into a nail biter for the fans of these schools.

ChillinDuke
10-03-2013, 10:51 AM
Adam Rowe has now changed his prediction to UNLV....hmmmm. It seems like there is a lot of movement in the last day of predictions making somebody's % accurate rate perhaps a bit flawed. If somebody chooses the wrong school for the five months leading up to it, but then changes it the day of to the correct one, he/she gets credit for a correct prediction. (Of course, the inverse is true as well.) I guess that's why people had suggested accuracy based on days out, etc. They're probably not collecting that historical data, though, and just store the last prediction. But that would be nice. Either way, a cool feature.

I thought Adam posted on here saying something like they are tracking everything at the moment and will improve it once enough data is collected.

I'm obviously not designing the tool, but it shouldn't be hard to make it somewhat helpful for use in following recruiting. For example, you open all recruits for voting at the same time - say 1.5 years before their signing day (call it 500 days). For every day an analyst is correct in picking the recruit's destination he gets 1/500. You average him in different metrics - across all recruits, certain conference only, certain specific school only, etc. Then when the pool of data is large enough, you start assessing recruiting leaders based on who is picking where and their average correctness across that school, that conference, and in total.

I imagine a statistics guy (and we have many on this board) could put this together in short order. And I think it would be a large step up in quality for assessing recruiting. I mean it can't get much lower quality over parsing tweets, journal entries, and articles.

But I do agree with FDD, this may eventually be a bad thing for my productivity level.

- Chillin

AAA1980
10-03-2013, 10:53 AM
Crean must really be screwing things up on the recruiting trail..Comign off of a few good seasons for the first time in awhile and having two guys picked in the top 5 in the same year you wouldnt think it would be hard to get players to Indiana but theyve done nothing but have guys decomitt and lose recruiting battles except Robert Johnson whos a good player but nothing to do cartwheels over..

JasonEvans
10-03-2013, 10:57 AM
This is exactly why I think I'm going to love the 247 Crystal Ball concept. If done the right way, it's simple to get an average days correct on predicting where recruits will go and these 5 new recruiting gurus would be pretty low on that scale. Quickly, we would be able to see who has a good track record predicting recruits (granted, a "good" record may be well under 50%) and which people are better at which school, etc. And then if I were designing, a weighted average rating on where recruits are predicted based on an analyst's average days correct. Or something like this.

I'm in.

- Chillin

So, since I posted that note at 10pm last night, the tide seems to have turned again. It was all Indiana for many months. Then, late yesterday we started to see a flurry of Ohio State predictions. And now we are getting more and more UNLV predictions. 247's current crystal ball is 54% Indiana, 31% Ohio State, and 15% UNLV. But, if we look only at predictions made in the past few days, it is 8 Ohio State, 4 UNLV, and 2 Indiana. Of course, it is worth noting that anyone who had picked Indiana weeks or months ago who still thinks that is where he is going would not need to change/update their prediction.

It is also worth noting that folks can change earlier predictions and we don't know what they predicted earlier. Our good friend Adam Rowe had been one of the over-the-summer Indiana predictors. Well, last night he changed his pick to UNLV. I've got no problem with Adam updating his prognostication, but if 247 really wants to present itself as some kind of compiler of guru predictions there needs to be some allowance made for the guys who say one thing for months and months and then change their tune at the last minute.

-Jason "Adam is not nearly alone in changing his pick, he is merely the person I pointed out because we all know him here" Evans

JasonEvans
10-03-2013, 11:14 AM
It is also worth noting that folks can change earlier predictions and we don't know what they predicted earlier. Our good friend Adam Rowe had been one of the over-the-summer Indiana predictors. Well, last night he changed his pick to UNLV. I've got no problem with Adam updating his prognostication, but if 247 really wants to present itself as some kind of compiler of guru predictions there needs to be some allowance made for the guys who say one thing for months and months and then change their tune at the last minute.

-Jason "Adam is not nearly alone in changing his pick, he is merely the person I pointed out because we all know him here" Evans

Adam has changed his pick again -- he's on Ohio State now.

The majority of gurus are now picking Ohio State (45%), over Indiana (34%), and UNLV (21%).

Good luck in figuring out where this kid is going!!

-Jason "Yup, I just did that" Evans

Henderson
10-03-2013, 11:19 AM
There could easily be a market for making recruiting predictions. Like the Intrade concept (http://www.intrade.com/v4/misc/howItWorks/theBasics.jsp). If the market were large enough to be efficient, it would reflect daily the prognostications of those willing to put some jack behind their predictions. The idea being that people don't invest jack in a prediction unless they have some basis.

But how to control insider trading by recruits, family and hangers on? Or maybe we don't care, since their trading would move the line closer to an accurate outcome.

ChillinDuke
10-03-2013, 11:31 AM
So, since I posted that note at 10pm last night, the tide seems to have turned again. It was all Indiana for many months. Then, late yesterday we started to see a flurry of Ohio State predictions. And now we are getting more and more UNLV predictions. 247's current crystal ball is 54% Indiana, 31% Ohio State, and 15% UNLV. But, if we look only at predictions made in the past few days, it is 8 Ohio State, 4 UNLV, and 2 Indiana. Of course, it is worth noting that anyone who had picked Indiana weeks or months ago who still thinks that is where he is going would not need to change/update their prediction.

It is also worth noting that folks can change earlier predictions and we don't know what they predicted earlier. Our good friend Adam Rowe had been one of the over-the-summer Indiana predictors. Well, last night he changed his pick to UNLV. I've got no problem with Adam updating his prognostication, but if 247 really wants to present itself as some kind of compiler of guru predictions there needs to be some allowance made for the guys who say one thing for months and months and then change their tune at the last minute.

-Jason "Adam is not nearly alone in changing his pick, he is merely the person I pointed out because we all know him here" Evans

First, I'm with you that this is pretty fun to track. I'm interested to see where he ends up choosing and what the distribution looks like across the gurus.

Second, the part I bolded is super easy to address just by evaluating analysts on a day count basis. Change your tune to the correct school on the day of his announcement? Then you only get 1/500 correct on Okonoboh. That stinks - but it's better than leaving the wrong guess and getting a big fat 0. Analyst have Okonoboh correct since May? 145/500. Not bad. Way better than the schmo who changed at the last second.

Dukedoc brought up copycat predictors. Well, bonus points for the first to act, a few less for the second to act, and phase them out until the last to the party gets zip extra points. Or you could make the predictions blind for the first X amount of days - then they go public and they can have a huge ESPN special to unveil them. We're sort of at that point anyway, aren't we? :rolleyes:

- Chillin

Dev11
10-03-2013, 11:45 AM
Well, I don't know how you put stock in a prediction that's been correct all the way through as opposed to one that is only correct at the time of the announcement, since that moment is all that really matters. As Nate Silver taught us during the elections, the guess comes with a certain degree of confidence, and that confidence is only 100% when its over.

Speaking of which, I hope Silver tackles this whole recruit guessing game on 538 someday. Then we could just put it all to rest. You know, since he's a witch and whatnot.

JasonEvans
10-03-2013, 12:55 PM
First, I'm with you that this is pretty fun to track. I'm interested to see where he ends up choosing and what the distribution looks like across the gurus.

Second, the part I bolded is super easy to address just by evaluating analysts on a day count basis. Change your tune to the correct school on the day of his announcement? Then you only get 1/500 correct on Okonoboh. That stinks - but it's better than leaving the wrong guess and getting a big fat 0. Analyst have Okonoboh correct since May? 145/500. Not bad. Way better than the schmo who changed at the last second.


A couple problems with your idea...

First of all, there is a HUGE incentive for folks to guess wildly as far out as they can just in case they get lucky and score the 200, 300, or even 500 day points. After all, someone who guesses right once on a kid with 400 days to go and then misses on a dozen other kids would get more points than the guy who nails 12-for-12 but makes each of those predictions with just a week or two until the player makes his decision.

I think we should value accuracy above all else. Way more important to be right than to make a slightly educated guess months in advance.

Here is what I wold do -- every prediction counts. So, if you guess Indiana and the kid goes to OSU, you are 0-for-1 (0%). If you guess Indiana and then change that pick to OSU and the kid goes to OSU, then you are 1-for-2 (50%). Guess Indiana and then OSU and then UNLV and the kid goes to UNLV and you are just 1-for-3 (33%). This would discourage the pickers from making wild guesses months in advance and then changing your mind at the last minute without any penalty.

Also, to be clear, if you pick IU and then OSU and then UNLV and the kid picks OSU, you don't get anything right. That would be an 0-for-3 (0%). Your final pick is the only one that can be registered as correct.

We could build in bonuses for a correct pick made at least 1 week prior to commitment and another for a pick made a month early and one more for a pick made at least 3 months before commitment, so there would be some reason to make your picks known early in the process. I think that works better than your 500 point plan.

Another thought just occurred to me -- we could do your 500 point system, but each day a pick was incorrect would be minus 1/500th and each day it was correct would be worth plus 1/500th. So, if you went with Indiana as your choice for 3 months (90 days) and then switched to OSU two days before the kid committed to OSU, your score for that recruit would be (+2 - 90 = -88). What do you think of that?

-Jason "I comment on all this like we could even begin to have an impact on this... ha!" Evans

ChillinDuke
10-03-2013, 01:09 PM
A couple problems with your idea...

First of all, there is a HUGE incentive for folks to guess wildly as far out as they can just in case they get lucky and score the 200, 300, or even 500 day points. After all, someone who guesses right once on a kid with 400 days to go and then misses on a dozen other kids would get more points than the guy who nails 12-for-12 but makes each of those predictions with just a week or two until the player makes his decision.

I think we should value accuracy above all else. Way more important to be right than to make a slightly educated guess months in advance.

Here is what I wold do -- every prediction counts. So, if you guess Indiana and the kid goes to OSU, you are 0-for-1 (0%). If you guess Indiana and then change that pick to OSU and the kid goes to OSU, then you are 1-for-2 (50%). Guess Indiana and then OSU and then UNLV and the kid goes to UNLV and you are just 1-for-3 (33%). This would discourage the pickers from making wild guesses months in advance and then changing your mind at the last minute without any penalty.

Also, to be clear, if you pick IU and then OSU and then UNLV and the kid picks OSU, you don't get anything right. That would be an 0-for-3 (0%). Your final pick is the only one that can be registered as correct.

We could build in bonuses for a correct pick made at least 1 week prior to commitment and another for a pick made a month early and one more for a pick made at least 3 months before commitment, so there would be some reason to make your picks known early in the process. I think that works better than your 500 point plan.

Another thought just occurred to me -- we could do your 500 point system, but each day a pick was incorrect would be minus 1/500th and each day it was correct would be worth plus 1/500th. So, if you went with Indiana as your choice for 3 months (90 days) and then switched to OSU two days before the kid committed to OSU, your score for that recruit would be (+2 - 90 = -88). What do you think of that?

-Jason "I comment on all this like we could even begin to have an impact on this... ha!" Evans

Oh, absolutely. Didn't mean to imply it was my way or the highway. Just that the issues raised by various posters can be troubleshot without a ton of headache. Not to mention investment sites already have metrics like this.

At first glance I like your system better than mine. Granted, I'm at work and not trying hard to troubleshoot/stress the scheme. I don't particularly like the tweak you made to mine because it introduces the concept of negative numbers, which I guess would be fine if kept behind the scenes - but as far as in the public eye, I wouldn't want to have analysts rated negatively. I favor some sort of scale like 0-10 or 0-100, or tiers, or something like that.

The only negative to your system that popped into my head is that if an analyst is tossed between two schools, for example, and is legitimately sold that it's either school A or school B and chooses A. But the recruit goes B. He gets a big, fat 0. Maybe that's fine. But in my system at least he could structure his choice so as to maximize his credibility. Granted, this would look weird to the public if he's flip-flopping constantly. Maybe get docked a penalty for every pick change?

Still leaning toward your idea.

- Chillin

Philadukie
10-03-2013, 01:39 PM
A couple problems with your idea...

First of all, there is a HUGE incentive for folks to guess wildly as far out as they can just in case they get lucky and score the 200, 300, or even 500 day points. After all, someone who guesses right once on a kid with 400 days to go and then misses on a dozen other kids would get more points than the guy who nails 12-for-12 but makes each of those predictions with just a week or two until the player makes his decision.

I think we should value accuracy above all else. Way more important to be right than to make a slightly educated guess months in advance.

Here is what I wold do -- every prediction counts. So, if you guess Indiana and the kid goes to OSU, you are 0-for-1 (0%). If you guess Indiana and then change that pick to OSU and the kid goes to OSU, then you are 1-for-2 (50%). Guess Indiana and then OSU and then UNLV and the kid goes to UNLV and you are just 1-for-3 (33%). This would discourage the pickers from making wild guesses months in advance and then changing your mind at the last minute without any penalty.

Also, to be clear, if you pick IU and then OSU and then UNLV and the kid picks OSU, you don't get anything right. That would be an 0-for-3 (0%). Your final pick is the only one that can be registered as correct.

We could build in bonuses for a correct pick made at least 1 week prior to commitment and another for a pick made a month early and one more for a pick made at least 3 months before commitment, so there would be some reason to make your picks known early in the process. I think that works better than your 500 point plan.

Another thought just occurred to me -- we could do your 500 point system, but each day a pick was incorrect would be minus 1/500th and each day it was correct would be worth plus 1/500th. So, if you went with Indiana as your choice for 3 months (90 days) and then switched to OSU two days before the kid committed to OSU, your score for that recruit would be (+2 - 90 = -88). What do you think of that?

-Jason "I comment on all this like we could even begin to have an impact on this... ha!" Evans

Great points, I was thinking this too but you beat me to it. You would have to devise the scoring system so that incorrect final answers generated "0" points, regardless of how many days prior the pick was correct. Otherwise, people could easily game the system to smooth out their points for the likely choices. In other words, recruits typically have a list of five or six schools at most, and recruiting experts (and even non-experts) generally know that only three or four of those schools at most are real contenders (i.e. Harrison Barnes had Iowa St. on his final list but did anyone really think he would go there?). So anyone participating in the prognostication could simply rotate their pick each week among three schools, for instance, so that the points are roughly even among the three likely contenders. That way, as you say, someone with no insider knowledge who got the final pick wrong could easily score higher than someone with insider knowledge who got the pick right but for less days.

On that point, it seems to me that getting a pick correct should, ideally, serve as a proxy for having strong access and quality information (access to college coaches and assistant coaches and staff; access to AAU coaches and staff; access to high school coaches and staff; and access to family members, friends, and the recruits themselves), rather than a proxy for expert judgment of clues and information. After all, there only so many ways one can interpret a quote or tweet from a recruit that's public (judgment of available public information doesn't really play into it) . One would assume, then, that the recruiting experts with the best access and information would generally score higher than those with less access and information. So you would want to devise the scoring system so that it aligns high scores to those with the best access and information, which ideally should be reflected in accurate picks. But at the same time you need to "weed out" people who guess right or mimic the experts with real information and change their picks at the last minute. That's the challenge, and I'm not sure how to do that without, as another poster suggested, making it blind among the experts.

EDIT: Perhaps you could use the 500 point system but only give points to those who get it right with the final pick? Otherwise, it's "0". This would seem to reward those with the best information while not rewarding the last minute mimics. Of course, the mimics could still game the system, I guess, by smoothing out their picks as discussed above, and then mimicking the experts at the last minute, so that they still score higher. In which case, you'd have to utilize your negative scoring to penalize those gaming the system.

tommy
10-03-2013, 01:40 PM
I thought Adam posted on here saying something like they are tracking everything at the moment and will improve it once enough data is collected.

I'm obviously not designing the tool, but it shouldn't be hard to make it somewhat helpful for use in following recruiting. For example, you open all recruits for voting at the same time - say 1.5 years before their signing day (call it 500 days). For every day an analyst is correct in picking the recruit's destination he gets 1/500. You average him in different metrics - across all recruits, certain conference only, certain specific school only, etc. Then when the pool of data is large enough, you start assessing recruiting leaders based on who is picking where and their average correctness across that school, that conference, and in total.

I imagine a statistics guy (and we have many on this board) could put this together in short order. And I think it would be a large step up in quality for assessing recruiting. I mean it can't get much lower quality over parsing tweets, journal entries, and articles.



- Chillin

I'm not a member over at 247 so I don't know who their other "gurus" are (though I know and certainly respect Adam) and I don't know what they're basing their information on. Are any of them doing anything much better than parsing tweets, journal entries, and reading others' articles, or are they actually communicating directly with the kids and/or the coaching staffs involved and getting real information from them?

ChillinDuke
10-03-2013, 02:33 PM
I'm not a member over at 247 so I don't know who their other "gurus" are (though I know and certainly respect Adam) and I don't know what they're basing their information on. Are any of them doing anything much better than parsing tweets, journal entries, and reading others' articles, or are they actually communicating directly with the kids and/or the coaching staffs involved and getting real information from them?

You don't have to be a member. It's free to view the Crystal Ball.

Check it out, halfway down the player page: http://247sports.com/Player/Jahlil-Okafor-17435
Or here's the direct link to all the guru picks: http://247sports.com/Player/Jahlil-Okafor-17435/PlayerInstitutionPredictions

[Note: I picked Jahlil b/c he was just the first person on their ranking chart. No reason other than that.]

Well, some of the analysts appear to be insiders for specific schools. For example, Adam is listed as a Duke Insider. Alex Gleitman (never heard of him) is apparently an Ohio State Insider. There are many others listed. If these guys are even close to the level Adam is at their respective schools, well then I give this method credibility, because I doubt Adam is only parsing and reading.

- Chillin

BD80
10-03-2013, 05:09 PM
Adam has changed his pick again -- he's on Ohio State now.

The majority of gurus are now picking Ohio State (45%), over Indiana (34%), and UNLV (21%).

Good luck in figuring out where this kid is going!!

-Jason "Yup, I just did that" Evans

Who needs goodluck? OSU, IU, UNLV ....

ChillinDuke
10-03-2013, 05:46 PM
Just by reading Jason Evans' posts / timestamps, check out this trajectory! According to the Crystal Ball (that's kinda fun to say), Okonoboh has gone from:

6:19pm 10/2: 95.7% going to Indiana
10:18pm 10/2: 78.6% IU
10:57am today: 54%
11:14am today: 34%

Now (5:44pm): 16%

Wowza! This tells me two things: (1) it appears the gurus were off on this one heading into today and (2) stinks to be an Indiana fan tonight.

- Chillin

ETA - Either my eyes deceived me when I just posted, or IU is now 15%. (1 min later)

Indoor66
10-03-2013, 06:00 PM
Just by reading Jason Evans' posts / timestamps, check out this trajectory! According to the Crystal Ball (that's kinda fun to say), Okonoboh has gone from:

6:19pm 10/2: 95.7% going to Indiana
10:18pm 10/2: 78.6% IU
10:57am today: 54%
11:14am today: 34%

Now (5:44pm): 16%

Wowza! This tells me two things: (1) it appears the gurus were off on this one heading into today and (2) stinks to be an Indiana fan tonight.

- Chillin

ETA - Either my eyes deceived me when I just posted, or IU is now 15%. (1 min later)

Would be a yuck if he went to IU!

airowe
10-03-2013, 09:13 PM
Adam Rowe has now changed his prediction to UNLV....hmmmm. It seems like there is a lot of movement in the last day of predictions making somebody's % accurate rate perhaps a bit flawed. If somebody chooses the wrong school for the five months leading up to it, but then changes it the day of to the correct one, he/she gets credit for a correct prediction. (Of course, the inverse is true as well.) I guess that's why people had suggested accuracy based on days out, etc. They're probably not collecting that historical data, though, and just store the last prediction. But that would be nice. Either way, a cool feature.


We're collecting all that data. Haven't figured out what to do with it just yet, but hopefully will be able to learn some things about the predictors and recruiting at the same time.

To answer other questions, there are certainly copycat predictors and those who just parse tweets. There are some who work recruits, sources and coaches to get actual infi too. Although, that's not completely accurate either.

Its a fun tool, but shouldn't be looked at as gospel either. Just a way to get everyone's predictions on record in one place.

JasonEvans
10-03-2013, 10:30 PM
Airowe (Adam), you should not have made that switch this morning from UNLV to Ohio State. Okonoboh picked the Runnin' Rebs this evening. UNLV was only the pick of 27% of the gurus. 58% said OSU and just 15% stuck with Indiana until the bitter end.

28 recruiting experts made their pick (or changed from an earlier one) in the final 24 hour of Okonoboh's recruitment. Only 5 made a pick more than a couple days ago and stuck with it.

This was a really interesting exercise. I look forward to watching the process for other top tier recruits unfold. I'll say this, the lesson for Duke fans -- who look at the 247 rankings of Okafor, Jones, and Looney and see 100% predicting Duke -- is that it is all just mildly educated guessing until the final few days. The moment Goodluck announced, the IU community probably felt super confident. But, it appears they may not have even been his backup choice when Okonoboh made his decision.

-Jason "this whole exercise makes me sorta nervous about Okafor, Jones, and Looney" Evans

tommy
10-04-2013, 01:09 AM
Airowe (Adam), you should not have made that switch this morning from UNLV to Ohio State. Okonoboh picked the Runnin' Rebs this evening. UNLV was only the pick of 27% of the gurus. 58% said OSU and just 15% stuck with Indiana until the bitter end.

28 recruiting experts made their pick (or changed from an earlier one) in the final 24 hour of Okonoboh's recruitment. Only 5 made a pick more than a couple days ago and stuck with it.

This was a really interesting exercise. I look forward to watching the process for other top tier recruits unfold. I'll say this, the lesson for Duke fans -- who look at the 247 rankings of Okafor, Jones, and Looney and see 100% predicting Duke -- is that it is all just mildly educated guessing until the final few days. The moment Goodluck announced, the IU community probably felt super confident. But, it appears they may not have even been his backup choice when Okonoboh made his decision.

-Jason "this whole exercise makes me sorta nervous about Okafor, Jones, and Looney" Evans

I wouldn't let this exercise make you nervous about Okafor and Jones. They have been very consistent for a very long time about the package. This includes very recent reaffirmation by Tyus of their intention to play together. I just don't see that changing at this pretty late date. Could be wrong, but I don't see that happening unless somebody just wants to do something rash just to prove people wrong or express his independence, or something like that.

So then you have to look at Kansas. The Jayhawks are widely perceived to be the "leader" (I'm growing to really hate that term vis-a-vis recruiting) for Chicago power player Cliff Alexander. Lots of folks actually in the know are feeling that one pretty strongly. If Alexander goes there, then the chances that Jahlil will want to go there have to decrease significantly. If he and Tyus are packaging, it's going to be at Kansas or Duke, and if Alexander is at Kansas, then that leaves Duke. And even that analysis is looking at it from a "backing into it" perspective. I think it's just as likely that Jahlil and Tyus make an affirmative decision that regardless of where they think Cliff Alexander or anyone else is going, that they are the best players in the nation at their respective positions, they want to play for Mike Krzyzewski and they want to be Blue Devils, and they're coming here.

Again, could be wrong, but that's the way I'm thinking about this.

airowe
10-04-2013, 09:39 AM
Airowe (Adam), you should not have made that switch this morning from UNLV to Ohio State. Okonoboh picked the Runnin' Rebs this evening. UNLV was only the pick of 27% of the gurus. 58% said OSU and just 15% stuck with Indiana until the bitter end.

28 recruiting experts made their pick (or changed from an earlier one) in the final 24 hour of Okonoboh's recruitment. Only 5 made a pick more than a couple days ago and stuck with it.

This was a really interesting exercise. I look forward to watching the process for other top tier recruits unfold. I'll say this, the lesson for Duke fans -- who look at the 247 rankings of Okafor, Jones, and Looney and see 100% predicting Duke -- is that it is all just mildly educated guessing until the final few days. The moment Goodluck announced, the IU community probably felt super confident. But, it appears they may not have even been his backup choice when Okonoboh made his decision.

-Jason "this whole exercise makes me sorta nervous about Okafor, Jones, and Looney" Evans

Ha ha, just goes to show how unpredictable recruiting can be. Fortunately (strategically) for Duke, they get the last visit for Jones and Okafor.

PSurprise
10-04-2013, 09:45 AM
Ha ha, just goes to show how unpredictable recruiting can be. Fortunately (strategically) for Duke, they get the last visit for Jones and Okafor.

This makes me wonder, and it would probably take a fair amount of research, but what is the percentage of top recruits that decided to go to the school that they visited last? It seems like being last would be an advantage, but from my (flawed) memory, it seems that order really doesn't really have much of an impact on the final decisions.

ChillinDuke
10-04-2013, 09:56 AM
We're collecting all that data. Haven't figured out what to do with it just yet, but hopefully will be able to learn some things about the predictors and recruiting at the same time.

To answer other questions, there are certainly copycat predictors and those who just parse tweets. There are some who work recruits, sources and coaches to get actual infi too. Although, that's not completely accurate either.

Its a fun tool, but shouldn't be looked at as gospel either. Just a way to get everyone's predictions on record in one place.


Airowe (Adam), you should not have made that switch this morning from UNLV to Ohio State. Okonoboh picked the Runnin' Rebs this evening. UNLV was only the pick of 27% of the gurus. 58% said OSU and just 15% stuck with Indiana until the bitter end.

28 recruiting experts made their pick (or changed from an earlier one) in the final 24 hour of Okonoboh's recruitment. Only 5 made a pick more than a couple days ago and stuck with it.

This was a really interesting exercise. I look forward to watching the process for other top tier recruits unfold. I'll say this, the lesson for Duke fans -- who look at the 247 rankings of Okafor, Jones, and Looney and see 100% predicting Duke -- is that it is all just mildly educated guessing until the final few days. The moment Goodluck announced, the IU community probably felt super confident. But, it appears they may not have even been his backup choice when Okonoboh made his decision.

-Jason "this whole exercise makes me sorta nervous about Okafor, Jones, and Looney" Evans

Cool stuff.

I'm definitely going to be watching as well.

Good luck to Goodluck at UNLV.

- Chillin

flyingdutchdevil
10-04-2013, 10:06 AM
Ha ha, just goes to show how unpredictable recruiting can be. Fortunately (strategically) for Duke, they get the last visit for Jones and Okafor.

Adam - can you please expand on this? Is it statistically relevant that recruits pick the school of which they last visited? I have no idea regarding what goes on during these visit, and how recruits process any of the info.

Thanks

johnb
10-04-2013, 12:03 PM
Ha ha, just goes to show how unpredictable recruiting can be. Fortunately (strategically) for Duke, they get the last visit for Jones and Okafor.

It would also be interesting to somehow assess how the advertised guesses affect the actual decision-making process. For one, I can see some kids or relatives gaming the system even more than they already do by hinting things to various people to see if they can get affect the prognostication. I can also see other kids (as we've seen this year) get kinda irritated that they are seen as in the bag for a particular school, as if they don't have a free choice in the matter.

If I were in their shoes, I'd be checking out 247 just because I couldn't help myself. I'd also be looking at all the fan web sites, like this one, and would probably not have time to practice. Anyway, if guys like me (the--hypothetical--real me, not the fictitious one) made dig comments about the fictitious version of me, the fictitious version might get peeved and decide to go elsewhere, even though the fictional (athletic) me would be highly unlikely to ever meet the hypthetical real me who is several decades from being eligible to sit in the student section of games.

Indoor66
10-04-2013, 12:08 PM
If I were in their shoes, I'd be checking out 247 just because I couldn't help myself. I'd also be looking at all the fan web sites, like this one, and would probably not have time to practice. Anyway, if guys like me (the--hypothetical--real me, not the fictitious one) made dig comments about the fictitious version of me, the fictitious version might get peeved and decide to go elsewhere, even though the fictional (athletic) me would be highly unlikely to ever meet the hypthetical real me who is several decades from being eligible to sit in the student section of games.

Huh? I got real lost in that paragraph. :cool:

JasonEvans
10-04-2013, 12:51 PM
If I were in their shoes, I'd be checking out 247 just because I couldn't help myself. I'd also be looking at all the fan web sites, like this one, and would probably not have time to practice. Anyway, if guys like me (the--hypothetical--real me, not the fictitious one) made dig comments about the fictitious version of me, the fictitious version might get peeved and decide to go elsewhere, even though the fictional (athletic) me would be highly unlikely to ever meet the hypthetical real me who is several decades from being eligible to sit in the student section of games.

The hypothetical, fictitious version of me found this paragraph hysterical.

The real, unathletic version of me was just scratching my head.

-Jason "well done sir ;) " Evans

airowe
10-04-2013, 01:24 PM
Adam - can you please expand on this? Is it statistically relevant that recruits pick the school of which they last visited? I have no idea regarding what goes on during these visit, and how recruits process any of the info.

Thanks

It's generally thought to be an advantageous position for a school to get the last visit for prospects, so they are able to dispel any negative recruiting that were to come their way and so that any positive effects from the visit will weigh most heavily on the recruit's mind when sitting down to make the final decision. No two recruitments or recruits are alike though, so it's just a (commonly accepted) theory.

airowe
10-04-2013, 01:25 PM
If I were in their shoes, I'd be checking out 247 just because I couldn't help myself. I'd also be looking at all the fan web sites, like this one, and would probably not have time to practice. Anyway, if guys like me (the--hypothetical--real me, not the fictitious one) made dig comments about the fictitious version of me, the fictitious version might get peeved and decide to go elsewhere, even though the fictional (athletic) me would be highly unlikely to ever meet the hypthetical real me who is several decades from being eligible to sit in the student section of games.

The hypothetical coaches in this scenario would probably not want a hypothetical player such as your hypothetical self who would choose his or her college destination based on the hypothetical statements of other hypothetical people.

TexHawk
10-04-2013, 03:23 PM
So then you have to look at Kansas. The Jayhawks are widely perceived to be the "leader" (I'm growing to really hate that term vis-a-vis recruiting) for Chicago power player Cliff Alexander. Lots of folks actually in the know are feeling that one pretty strongly. If Alexander goes there, then the chances that Jahlil will want to go there have to decrease significantly. If he and Tyus are packaging, it's going to be at Kansas or Duke, and if Alexander is at Kansas, then that leaves Duke. And even that analysis is looking at it from a "backing into it" perspective. I think it's just as likely that Jahlil and Tyus make an affirmative decision that regardless of where they think Cliff Alexander or anyone else is going, that they are the best players in the nation at their respective positions, they want to play for Mike Krzyzewski and they want to be Blue Devils, and they're coming here.


Well, reading it that way, if Okafor thinks he is the best player at his position, why would Cliff Alexander scare him away from KU?

ChillinDuke
10-29-2013, 11:05 AM
Just by reading Jason Evans' posts / timestamps, check out this trajectory! According to the Crystal Ball (that's kinda fun to say), Okonoboh has gone from:

6:19pm 10/2: 95.7% going to Indiana
10:18pm 10/2: 78.6% IU
10:57am today: 54%
11:14am today: 34%

Now (5:44pm): 16%

Wowza! This tells me two things: (1) it appears the gurus were off on this one heading into today and (2) stinks to be an Indiana fan tonight.

- Chillin

ETA - Either my eyes deceived me when I just posted, or IU is now 15%. (1 min later)


Airowe (Adam), you should not have made that switch this morning from UNLV to Ohio State. Okonoboh picked the Runnin' Rebs this evening. UNLV was only the pick of 27% of the gurus. 58% said OSU and just 15% stuck with Indiana until the bitter end.

28 recruiting experts made their pick (or changed from an earlier one) in the final 24 hour of Okonoboh's recruitment. Only 5 made a pick more than a couple days ago and stuck with it.

This was a really interesting exercise. I look forward to watching the process for other top tier recruits unfold. I'll say this, the lesson for Duke fans -- who look at the 247 rankings of Okafor, Jones, and Looney and see 100% predicting Duke -- is that it is all just mildly educated guessing until the final few days. The moment Goodluck announced, the IU community probably felt super confident. But, it appears they may not have even been his backup choice when Okonoboh made his decision.

-Jason "this whole exercise makes me sorta nervous about Okafor, Jones, and Looney" Evans

For anyone interested in the 24/7 Crystal Ball predictor, I figured I'd revive this thread for Looney's upcoming announcement on Thursday 12noon (Eastern, I think).

I re-posted the above two quotes to give some background as to how crazy the Goodluck Okonoboh 247 CB was in the final hours leading up to his announcement on 10/3.

Thus far, Looney's CB is steady at 100% Duke, 49 hours out. Note the last four predictions for Kevon were two on 10/16 and two on 10/9. Nothing since then. Perhaps the calm before the storm?

- Chillin

mr. synellinden
10-29-2013, 11:28 AM
For anyone interested in the 24/7 Crystal Ball predictor, I figured I'd revive this thread for Looney's upcoming announcement on Thursday 12noon (Eastern, I think).

I re-posted the above two quotes to give some background as to how crazy the Goodluck Okonoboh 247 CB was in the final hours leading up to his announcement on 10/3.

Thus far, Looney's CB is steady at 100% Duke, 49 hours out. Note the last four predictions for Kevon were two on 10/16 and two on 10/9. Nothing since then. Perhaps the calm before the storm?

- Chillin


I'm re-posting something from the 2014 recruiting thread:

Jerry Meyer is now predicting Justise to Duke and Stanley Johnson to Arizona. He also predicts Reid Travis to Minnesota. I hope he's right. Especially if it means Travis is going elsewhere because we're getting Looney too.

ChillinDuke
10-29-2013, 11:41 AM
Well, we have our first activity.

An analyst apparently with UK allegiances has made a call: Looney to Duke.

This was his first prediction. So we're still at 100%, but now we're across 28 analysts from 27.

- Chillin

MCFinARL
10-29-2013, 07:21 PM
Another Duke prediction added to the Looney page a little after 5 PM. This one is from someone at "Roundball Rundown Report."

FerryFor50
10-29-2013, 07:27 PM
I wish Halloween had fallen on a Monday this year. It would have been cool to call it "Looney Lunedi"!

MCFinARL
10-29-2013, 07:29 PM
Another Duke prediction added to the Looney page a little after 5 PM. This one is from someone at "Roundball Rundown Report" who has an 80% accuracy ranking so far.

Also, someone named Kinsky posted predictions of Okafor and Jones to Kansas, Winslow to Duke this afternoon. (His accuracy rating is around 60%.)

ForkFondler
10-29-2013, 07:33 PM
Just by reading Jason Evans' posts / timestamps, check out this trajectory! According to the Crystal Ball (that's kinda fun to say), Okonoboh has gone from:

6:19pm 10/2: 95.7% going to Indiana
10:18pm 10/2: 78.6% IU
10:57am today: 54%
11:14am today: 34%

Now (5:44pm): 16%

Wowza! This tells me two things: (1) it appears the gurus were off on this one heading into today and (2) stinks to be an Indiana fan tonight.

- Chillin

ETA - Either my eyes deceived me when I just posted, or IU is now 15%. (1 min later)

There's big money in being wrong, apparently.

ChillinDuke
10-30-2013, 09:54 AM
Coming up on 24 hours out, and we are still sitting (relatively) quietly at 100% for Kevon.

Three new predictions came out yesterday (all for Duke obviously). Nothing yet this morning. Certainly seems quiet to me, especially when compared to the Okonoboh decision. Granted, a lot of the movement for that one came in the final 24 hours.

Anxious to see how today/tmrw morning unfolds.

- Chillin

UrinalCake
10-30-2013, 10:02 AM
I'm a little surprised at how confident these predictors are that Looney is coming to Duke, while Duke fans don't seem to share the same optimism. Meanwhile, most Duke fans are fairly confident that Jones and Okafor are coming to Duke, while the experts are a little less certain.

ChillinDuke
10-30-2013, 10:14 AM
I'm a little surprised at how confident these predictors are that Looney is coming to Duke, while Duke fans don't seem to share the same optimism. Meanwhile, most Duke fans are fairly confident that Jones and Okafor are coming to Duke, while the experts are a little less certain.

Definitely a little odd.

It's entirely possible that the 24/7 CB isn't a very good tool (yet) (or ever) at predicting these commitments.

But that's kinda the point of this thread, I guess. To see how well this thing does.

- Chillin

Bluedog
10-30-2013, 10:17 AM
Is Looney considered a one and done player? I had read somewhere that that is his ultimate plan, but it doesn't seem sure fire to me (RSCI #13, basically same as Sulaimon). If Looney chooses Duke and stays 2-3 years, he could end up having a bigger impact than Okafor does in a single year. Just something to think about...Although I want both of course!

JohnGalt
10-30-2013, 10:24 AM
who has an 80% accuracy ranking so far.

...His accuracy rating is around 60%.

Can the 'experts' change their prediction right up until the announcement? Or is there a cutoff time?

I seem to remember a run on a previous recruit's predictions with a number of experts changing what they think at the last minute (or last day or whatever). But that would kind of water down the value of any accuracy ranking right?

ChillinDuke
10-30-2013, 10:33 AM
Can the 'experts' change their prediction right up until the announcement? Or is there a cutoff time?

I seem to remember a run on a previous recruit's predictions with a number of experts changing what they think at the last minute (or last day or whatever). But that would kind of water down the value of any accuracy ranking right?

They can change their prediction at any time. Yes, there was a run on the Okonoboh announcement which had IU as the strong leader within 24 hours of his announcement, only to see him choose UNLV.

We are still evaluating the usefulness / accuracy of this new Crystal Ball concept on 24/7 Sports. At least I am, and that's why I'm posting in this thread. Being a new tool on the 24/7 site, DBR comrade (and 24/7 analyst using the CB tool) Airowe has posted upthread that 24/7 is still gathering all the data associated with the analysts using the CB. This includes final prediction, initial prediction, prediction changes, timing, # of analysts with a prediction, accuracy per analyst, etc. The list goes on and on.

The point is not that this tool is correct from the getgo, and we must rely on it and like it. Rather, how good is the tool now at predicting where recruits will go (wasn't very good for Okonoboh, that's for sure - but that was our first attempt at evaluating it)? And how good could it be if they tweak it once the site gets enough critical mass of data?

For now, I'm (and hopefully we're) just having fun seeing how this thing does.

- Chillin

Kedsy
10-30-2013, 11:04 AM
Rather, how good is the tool now at predicting where recruits will go (wasn't very good for Okonoboh, that's for sure - but that was our first attempt at evaluating it)? And how good could it be if they tweak it once the site gets enough critical mass of data?

For now, I'm (and hopefully we're) just having fun seeing how this thing does.

- Chillin

One issue is predictions are just guesses if there isn't any right answer. In other words, if the kid hasn't made up his mind yet, then all the predictions are just uninformed guesses. Even in cases where the guesses are informed, if the kid changes his mind then they're kind of worthless. Presumably that's what happened with Goodluck. Either he hadn't made up his mind and people assumed Indiana, or he'd let out Indiana signals but changed his mind.

They can gather all the data they want, but it won't change the nature of the beast.

conmanlhughes
10-30-2013, 11:32 AM
Its amazing how earlier in the year when I posted a comment about 247 in the recruiting thread about the crystal ball and I got this afterwards:

This is not an infraction but rather a warning, but please take it serious. 247Sports is a pay/premium site, and the information you shared in the post is only for their paying customers. DBR does not allow posts with premium information to stand as it is not fair to the owners of the pay site or their customers. Please do not share any more information here from any of the pay sites.

and now there is a whole thread for it. Isn't the info for crystal ball free? shaking my head, but no bitter feelings.:confused::p

FerryFor50
10-30-2013, 11:32 AM
Thanks a lot, DBR. You broke 247:

3642

ChillinDuke
10-30-2013, 11:54 AM
One issue is predictions are just guesses if there isn't any right answer. In other words, if the kid hasn't made up his mind yet, then all the predictions are just uninformed guesses. Even in cases where the guesses are informed, if the kid changes his mind then they're kind of worthless. Presumably that's what happened with Goodluck. Either he hadn't made up his mind and people assumed Indiana, or he'd let out Indiana signals but changed his mind.

They can gather all the data they want, but it won't change the nature of the beast.

You're right. But as a DBR community, there are many of us here that enjoy following recruiting. Many of us don't, but many do. And when those of us that enjoy recruiting have mainly the parsing of tweets / evaluating facial expressions / reading interviews / evaluating clothing / etc...well I'll give this imperfect, quantitative tool a shot at better taming that beast.

- Chillin

Troublemaker
10-30-2013, 11:57 AM
I'm a little surprised at how confident these predictors are that Looney is coming to Duke, while Duke fans don't seem to share the same optimism. Meanwhile, most Duke fans are fairly confident that Jones and Okafor are coming to Duke, while the experts are a little less certain.

One thing that would help give these predictions more clarity would be if the recruiting gurus had to put a confidence number on their picks, say on a scale of 1 to 10. So if Tyus Jones chooses Duke, those gurus that had picked Jones to Duke with a 10 confidence rating gets more credit than someone who had Jones to Duke with a 7.

If there was something like that in place, I believe it would show the gurus are more confident in Okafor/Jones to Duke than they are Looney to Duke. Whether they ultimately are correct with either prediction is another matter.

Kedsy
10-30-2013, 12:45 PM
You're right. But as a DBR community, there are many of us here that enjoy following recruiting. Many of us don't, but many do. And when those of us that enjoy recruiting have mainly the parsing of tweets / evaluating facial expressions / reading interviews / evaluating clothing / etc...well I'll give this imperfect, quantitative tool a shot at better taming that beast.

- Chillin

Perhaps. My problem is people seem to be looking at this (really all the things you mention) as something that can give them "the answer." But the fact is there is no answer until the kid makes his announcement (and even then it's not irrevocable).

ChillinDuke
10-30-2013, 12:53 PM
Perhaps. My problem is people seem to be looking at this (really all the things you mention) as something that can give them "the answer." But the fact is there is no answer until the kid makes his announcement (and even then it's not irrevocable).

I can't comment on all people. For me, I look at it similar to you in that the CB is not an answer. Instead, I'm hoping it proves (at some point) to be a more efficient way for me (and hopefully others) to follow recruiting. In its current state, recruiting has become increasingly tiresome for me, mainly due to the prevalence of Twitter and social media which allow for so much added noise.

ETA: When something in your house breaks and you still enjoy it, you look for the right tool to fix it. For me, here's to hoping this is it.

ETA: Others who don't enjoy it anymore, just throw it out.

- Chillin

Billy Dat
10-30-2013, 01:03 PM
Every time I try to access the 24/7 site, Skype launches instead and I see the goofy face of Huck Hound and the Eddie Haskell-esque smarm of the Black Pidgeon's voice saying, "Coach Roy Williams?".....and then I wake up, trembling in a cold sweat.

ChillinDuke
10-30-2013, 03:44 PM
Almost 20 hours out now, and this is turning into a snoozer. Barely any activity.

Looney is still listed as 100% Duke across 31 total analysts with only 4 new picks being made in the past two days and only 1 of those being today.

As far as the CB goes, I'm liking our chances. At least until I see activity that suggests otherwise.

- Chillin

ChillinDuke
10-30-2013, 06:06 PM
Almost 20 hours out now, and this is turning into a snoozer. Barely any activity.

Looney is still listed as 100% Duke across 31 total analysts with only 4 new picks being made in the past two days and only 1 of those being today.

As far as the CB goes, I'm liking our chances. At least until I see activity that suggests otherwise.

- Chillin

Alec Kinsky weighed in: Duke. 32 analysts.

This appears to be the guy Tommy gave some background on in this thread (post 1601, top of page): http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?25566-2014-Duke-Recruiting-thread/page81

Snoozer.

- Chillin

Duvall
10-30-2013, 09:02 PM
Alec Kinsky weighed in: Duke. 32 analysts.

This appears to be the guy Tommy gave some background on in this thread (post 1601, top of page): http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?25566-2014-Duke-Recruiting-thread/page81

Snoozer.

- Chillin

Unless Looney goes elsewhere, in which case we should probably ignore the Crystal Ball forever.

FerryFor50
10-30-2013, 09:09 PM
Does 247 predict if Looney will announce in his Halloween costume? Do they guess what he'll dress as?

He'd be my favorite player ever if he announced dressed as a Blue Devil.

NYBri
10-30-2013, 09:28 PM
Does 247 predict if Looney will announce in his Halloween costume? Do they guess what he'll dress as?

He'd be my favorite player ever if he announced dressed as a Blue Devil.

Even more so if it was a devil with a blue dress, blue dress, blue dress, devil with a blue dress on....

-jk
10-30-2013, 09:42 PM
Even more so if it was a devil with a blue dress, blue dress, blue dress, devil with a blue dress on....

Springsteen version?

-jk

AncientPsychicT
10-30-2013, 09:50 PM
Even more so if it was a devil with a blue dress, blue dress, blue dress, devil with a blue dress on....

That would sure be Looney...

;)

JasonEvans
10-30-2013, 10:27 PM
That would sure be Looney...

Uh-oh...

Speaking of Kevon, there have been 3 new predictions this evening... all three for Florida. It ain't 100% Duke anymore.

-Jason "worth noting that among the new Florida predictors is Jeff Borzello of CBS Sports... a fairly well known recruiting guru" Evans

FerryFor50
10-30-2013, 10:37 PM
Uh-oh...

Speaking of Kevon, there have been 3 new predictions this evening... all three for Florida. It ain't 100% Duke anymore.

-Jason "worth noting that among the new Florida predictors is Jeff Borzello of CBS Sports... a fairly well known recruiting guru" Evans

Guess what they meant by "weird recruitment."

Billy Donovan strikes again?

JasonEvans
10-30-2013, 10:47 PM
Guess what they meant by "weird recruitment."

Billy Donovan strikes again?

considering we heard so much about how Looney had such admiration for Cuonzo Martin at Tennessee and about how his family had connections to that school and the coaching staff there, picking Florida would really be a punch in the gut for those Tennessee folks.

Wow, would not want to be in Knoxville tonight!

-Jason "we'll know in about 14 hours" Evans

Clay Feet POF
10-30-2013, 11:06 PM
Will Looney's decision be on live TV ?

nmduke2001
10-30-2013, 11:11 PM
Jeff Borzello stated that Nate James and Billy Donovan both visited Looney today. Borzello predicted Florida on 247sports. We shall see.

BlueDevilBrowns
10-30-2013, 11:19 PM
Billy Donovan strikes again?

He has been a thorn in our side on the recruiting trail for quite some time. All the way back to David Lee, I think?

FerryFor50
10-30-2013, 11:23 PM
He has been a thorn in our side on the recruiting trail for quite some time. All the way back to David Lee, I think?

He makes offers you can't refuse, I suppose...

theschwartz
10-30-2013, 11:29 PM
He has been a thorn in our side on the recruiting trail for quite some time. All the way back to David Lee, I think?

Even further back to Brett Nelson and Mike Miller, IIRC.

ChillinDuke
10-31-2013, 12:34 AM
Unless Looney goes elsewhere, in which case we should probably ignore the Crystal Ball forever.

Yeah, that would be a real CB stinker.


Uh-oh...

Speaking of Kevon, there have been 3 new predictions this evening... all three for Florida. It ain't 100% Duke anymore.

-Jason "worth noting that among the new Florida predictors is Jeff Borzello of CBS Sports... a fairly well known recruiting guru" Evans

The two guys not named Borzello could easily be the types trying to "get famous" by picking the dark horse. They are 12-9 and 21-9 in their picks, both worse than, say, Airowe.

Borzello is a real interesting development at 34-4. As you say, he is a pretty well known voice. I'm certainly not excited to see him spring for Florida.

As a follow up question, we are now across 34 analysts in total. By my last count we were at 32. So of the three new Florida predictions, one of them must have been a switch - who was the switch? Was it Borzello? Not sure that gives much additional insight, but figured I'd point it out.

- Chillin

Kedsy
10-31-2013, 01:30 AM
Unless Looney goes elsewhere, in which case we should probably ignore the Crystal Ball forever.

In fairness, we may not need to completely ignore it, but it could be we should ignore it until around 18 hours before an announcement.

Dr. Rosenrosen
10-31-2013, 01:59 AM
Maybe Borzello is simply walking out on the limb so to speak given that Donovan visited Looney as well. Maybe be figures 50/50 shot, why not...

kAzE
10-31-2013, 05:41 AM
I'm amazed that these people get paid to do this. This has to be the 2013 version of the gypsy fortune teller.

bob blue devil
10-31-2013, 07:22 AM
A 4th has come in for looney to Florida. It doesn't look like any had predictions before (though I could be misinterpreting this - 1st time I've looked at the site).

My guess is someone thinks they've got a bit of inside info here and this is how that one bit is making it through the network. To avoid more highly entertaining (sarcasm - sorry I couldn't resist) conversation about the actual insight of these prognosticators, my use of "thinks" and "bit" are intentional, not fillers.

bob blue devil
10-31-2013, 07:31 AM
Pet idea for 247 - why not have the crystal ball folks attach a confidence rating to their prediction (eg 1 = school xyz is the leader, but it's so wide open odds are below 25% he actually ends up there, through 5= bet the farm, this kid is 100% headed to xyz)? That would greatly enhance the user experience and could be used to improve the prognosticator accuracy rating system. I'm probably missing something - let me have it. Naturally, this would reveal a big overconfidence bias, but that's tangential.

JasonEvans
10-31-2013, 08:10 AM
The two guys not named Borzello could easily be the types trying to "get famous" by picking the dark horse. They are 12-9 and 21-9 in their picks, both worse than, say, Airowe.

Borzello is a real interesting development at 34-4. As you say, he is a pretty well known voice. I'm certainly not excited to see him spring for Florida.

As a follow up question, we are now across 34 analysts in total. By my last count we were at 32. So of the three new Florida predictions, one of them must have been a switch - who was the switch? Was it Borzello? Not sure that gives much additional insight, but figured I'd point it out.

It is worth noting that Borzello or anyone else with a prediction could change that prediction any time up until the actual announcement and be credited with getting it right. There is no penalty in the system -- at least not so far -- for being wrong for a long time and then flipping and being right at the last minute.

Based on our observations of the Okonoboh recruitment, in which many gurus changed their picks 2 or 3 times in the final hours, I would not be at all surprised to see a major flurry of activity on Looney until noon today. In fact, if we don't see something like that it is probably a very good sign for Duke.

-Jason "I fully believe that every Okajones prediction is barely even a guess at this point - on one really knows what those two are thinking" Evans

Troublemaker
10-31-2013, 08:32 AM
Pet idea for 247 - why not have the crystal ball folks attach a confidence rating to their prediction (eg 1 = school xyz is the leader, but it's so wide open odds are below 25% he actually ends up there, through 5= bet the farm, this kid is 100% headed to xyz)? That would greatly enhance the user experience and could be used to improve the prognosticator accuracy rating system. I'm probably missing something - let me have it. Naturally, this would reveal a big overconfidence bias, but that's tangential.

I like it, and suggested the same upthread. This Looney recruitment would merit a confidence rating of 1 for many.

Jeff Borzello picked Fla but just tweeted that everyone is in the dark on this recruitment.

dukedoc
10-31-2013, 08:33 AM
Pet idea for 247 - why not have the crystal ball folks attach a confidence rating to their prediction (eg 1 = school xyz is the leader, but it's so wide open odds are below 25% he actually ends up there, through 5= bet the farm, this kid is 100% headed to xyz)? That would greatly enhance the user experience and could be used to improve the prognosticator accuracy rating system. I'm probably missing something - let me have it. Naturally, this would reveal a big overconfidence bias, but that's tangential.

Jerry Meyer indicated that the 100% Looney to Duke status of the 247 Crystal Ball as of about a day or so ago was partly due to the fact that most experts weren't too sure, but they thought Duke was the most likely in the midst of that uncertainty. Thus, most of them probably would have put their confidence at 2-3 or so. Part of the issue though is that truthfully someone can be uber confident on July 26th, and yet change their prediction on October 31st to something totally different and yet truthfully be uber confident in that prediction in that particular moment in time. The better question is "how confident are you that things will not change subsequent to the point of your making your prediction?" I'm guessing most everyone would give that a big fat "1" given we are dealing with teens in the midst of complicated "circles" of stakeholders.

My pet issue is that it isn't (and can't be) blinded. Inevitably people just go with the flow. It's only when multiple bigger names make changes that it likely is something substantive, because those bigger names have to really think for themselves, rather than the less well known types who are just gambling their way into some modicum of credibility for the future by tying themselves at the hip to Borzello or whomever.

JasonEvans
10-31-2013, 08:48 AM
There is an interesting feature that would be a nice add to 247's crystal ball. A "reaffirmation update" or something like that.

Allow me to explain. Lets take the case of all the Looney picks. Many of them picked Duke back in May, June, or July. When we see a small flurry of guys making Florida picks it makes it appear that Florida has momentum and that the old Duke picks are simply out of date. What we do not know is if the old Duke picks are from guys who have not bothered to make an update (or maybe are not paying as much attention to this particular recruit) or are they from guys who are on top of things but just still happen to feel the way they did back in the Spring/Summer.

Take airowe (our good buddy, Adam) for example. He made his Looney Duke pick on June 13th. As a Duke-focused blogger, I have no doubt that he has been working his sources extensively today and in recent days. Adam could have gotten numerous indications that Duke was still Looney's most likely destination, but his pick appears to be old and out of date on the 247 site. There is no mechanism for him to indicate that his old pick should carry as much weight and confidence as the new picks, which seem to be indicating Florida. There could be a dozen gurus who made calls and outreach last night who all heard Duke was the pick, but there is no way for the system to show that confidence. All they do is leave their 6 month old pick the way it is.

Seems like it is a bit of a flaw in the system -- though it is worth noting that this may be my own recency bias playing games with my nerves. The very first thing you see on the Looney prediction page (http://247sports.com/Player/Kevon-Looney-15259/PlayerInstitutionPredictions) is Duke 88%, Florida 12%. It may not be the 100% we saw a few days ago, but it is still a very healthy pro-Duke sentiment in this recruitment.

-Jason "I am just loving that we get to use the word Looney a lot in this thread without obviously mocking the game of recruiting predictions" Evans

BD80
10-31-2013, 08:57 AM
... -Jason "I am just loving that we get to use the word Looney a lot in this thread without obviously mocking the game of recruiting predictions" Evans

Actually, we should be thinking of the Canadian usage of Looney, their gold $1 coin: Kevon is money!

Come-on Kev-on!

Is there a schedule for the announcement?

ChillinDuke
10-31-2013, 09:10 AM
Actually, we should be thinking of the Canadian usage of Looney, their gold $1 coin: Kevon is money!

Come-on Kev-on!

Is there a schedule for the announcement?

11am Central.

As far as I can tell, Kevon shunned ESPNU to go old school and just announce at his high school. I like it.

- Chillin

devildeac
10-31-2013, 09:11 AM
Does 247 predict if Looney will announce in his Halloween costume? Do they guess what he'll dress as?

He'd be my favorite player ever if he announced dressed as a Blue Devil.

Just as long as he doesn't wear a banana costume:rolleyes:.

devildeac
10-31-2013, 09:13 AM
Springsteen version?

-jk

Or the original version:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QmdH5hAhs_8

Dev11
10-31-2013, 09:18 AM
11am Central.

As far as I can tell, Kevon shunned ESPNU to go old school and just announce at his high school. I like it.

- Chillin

I hope he doesn't go to the same high school as Josh Smith, as the press conference tables and mics are still in use.

No, I will not get tired of this joke.

Ichabod Drain
10-31-2013, 09:19 AM
I hope he doesn't go to the same high school as Josh Smith, as the press conference tables and mics are still in use.

No, I will not get tired of this joke.

Tony Parker?

Dev11
10-31-2013, 09:21 AM
Tony Parker?

That's what I meant. Shucks.

BD80
10-31-2013, 09:28 AM
I hope he doesn't go to the same high school as Josh Smith, as the press conference tables and mics are still in use.

No, I will not get tired of this joke.

Josh ate the tables and mics

oldnavy
10-31-2013, 09:35 AM
Just as long as he doesn't wear a banana costume:rolleyes:.

That made me laugh out loud. Still using the AVATAR from that "Late night with Roy".


Hey, speaking of which, does any other school, attach the head coaches name to the midnight madness?? I am just curious.

tommy
10-31-2013, 10:09 AM
My pet issue is that it isn't (and can't be) blinded. Inevitably people just go with the flow. It's only when multiple bigger names make changes that it likely is something substantive, because those bigger names have to really think for themselves, rather than the less well known types who are just gambling their way into some modicum of credibility for the future by tying themselves at the hip to Borzello or whomever.

This is right on the money. I am confident that most of the guys on 247, though they may be "insiders" with regards to a particular program or even have some sources with more than one program, have absolutely no sources as to almost all the rest of the programs. So when it comes to trying to "analyze" recruits outside their particular niche, if you will, they have nothing, so their only choice is to follow the crowd. The crowd favorite is probably based, at its root, on some sort of actual information (outdated though it may be) but it's better than just picking a name out of a hat -- which is otherwise all they would be left with. Following the crowd usually is going to allow them the greatest chances of being correct, and if they're not correct, then at least they're in the same boat with most of the rest of the guys, who missed on it too.

ChillinDuke
10-31-2013, 10:42 AM
Less than 1.5 hours out now. We're holding steady at 88% Duke.

Contrast this announcement with Okonoboh - much, much less activity on the 247 CB.

I agree with most posters that the CB needs tweaking to make it useful, but it's important to see how it operates first in order to see where tweaks are needed - and these two announcements are looking pretty different as far as the CB has gone. "Strange" has been used to describe it, so maybe that's reflected here too?

- Chillin

Ichabod Drain
10-31-2013, 10:44 AM
Less than 1.5 hours out now. We're holding steady at 88% Duke.

Contrast this announcement with Okonoboh - much, much less activity on the 247 CB.

I agree with most posters that the CB needs tweaking to make it useful, but it's important to see how it operates first in order to see where tweaks are needed - and these two announcements are looking pretty different as far as the CB has gone. "Strange" has been used to describe it, so maybe that's reflected here too?

- Chillin

I believe the announcement may be postponed now after that tweet...

bob blue devil
10-31-2013, 10:56 AM
I like it, and suggested the same upthread. This Looney recruitment would merit a confidence rating of 1 for many.


Arghh.. Sorry for thieving your idea!

RepoMan
10-31-2013, 11:03 AM
3647

Oh crap. Now Jay Hochstetler has picked FL, and we know what that means. This guy is money!


Jay Hochstetler
Jay Hochstetler
Recruiting Writer
Kentucky Sports Radio
Correct: 13
Incorrect: 7
Percent Correct: 65.00 %
AVG days Correct: 13.92

ChillinDuke
10-31-2013, 12:27 PM
I guess we're in "overtime".

The renowned N.D. Kendrick has flopped from Duke to Tennessee. That's the first Tennessee prediction. 34 analysts: 1/6/27 for Tenn/UF/Duke.

- Chillin

rotogod00
10-31-2013, 12:28 PM
Most recent Looney prediction (from the National Scouting Director of RecruitRecon.com) is for Tennessee, their first.

Dr. Rosenrosen
10-31-2013, 12:38 PM
God, this is so pointless. And yet here I am reading and spending time looking for clues. It will be what it will be. I hate the build up and the over-analyzing of this flip and that flop. Experts... please. These guys are more clueless than fantasy sports prognosticators, who themselves are pretty well full of it.

BTW, if a head coach tweeted that it's "great to be alive" just because he got a big recruit, that is pathetically sad. I'd be more impressed if he knew he was not getting the recruit and took the time to remind himself that it is great to be alive and the other stuff matters not.

FerryFor50
10-31-2013, 12:43 PM
God, this is so pointless. And yet here I am reading and spending time looking for clues. It will be what it will be. I hate the build up and the over-analyzing of this flip and that flop. Experts... please. These guys are more clueless than fantasy sports prognosticators, who themselves are pretty well full of it.

BTW, if a head coach tweeted that it's "great to be alive" just because he got a big recruit, that is pathetically sad. I'd be more impressed if he knew he was not getting the recruit and took the time to remind himself that it is great to be alive and the other stuff matters not.

For all we know, he had just gotten the Heimlich from someone at his favorite breakfast place. Kind of silly to try to place context on tweets in general. :)

JasonEvans
10-31-2013, 01:03 PM
Yikes!

Chad Lykins, who works with Adam Rowe on Blue Devil Lair, just changed his pick from Duke to Florida.

When the Duke insiders start picking against Duke, that's a bad sign.

-Jason "bahhh, we didn't want him anyway, right? Ha!" Evans

ikiru36
10-31-2013, 01:26 PM
Yikes!

Chad Lykins, who works with Adam Rowe on Blue Devil Lair, just changed his pick from Duke to Florida.

When the Duke insiders start picking against Duke, that's a bad sign.

-Jason "bahhh, we didn't want him anyway, right? Ha!" Evans

FWIW, it looks as if he logged his Justise to Duke pick just one minute after changing his Looney pick.

Whatever is going on, guess that we'll know more soon.

Go Duke!!!!!!!!!!!!! Go Devils!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! GTHCGTH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !

rotogod00
10-31-2013, 01:57 PM
3 minutes from Looney's announcement, 76% have Duke. But late money is with Florida (7 of the last 8)

CLW
10-31-2013, 02:00 PM
Well the director of 247 just tweeted he keeps hearing its going to be someone other than Duke but the other school named is all over the map.

Duvall
10-31-2013, 02:15 PM
Lock this thread?

mr. synellinden
10-31-2013, 02:15 PM
Schneided on Looney. 0-fer.

mph
10-31-2013, 02:16 PM
Looney to UCLA makes the crystal ball zero for 34. Looks like that crystal ball ain't so crystal clear.

ChillinDuke
10-31-2013, 02:16 PM
And he picks UCLA, which not a single analyst had predicted. 0 for 34.

"Strange" seems to have been the appropriate word here.

So now with both Okonoboh and Looney in the books, the 24/7 CB is not impressing.

- Chillin

dukedoc
10-31-2013, 02:16 PM
Well the director of 247 just tweeted he keeps hearing its going to be someone other than Duke but the other school named is all over the map.

Well, we should probably just close this thread down now, huh? Kevon flummoxes the Crystal Ball.

blUDAYvil
10-31-2013, 02:17 PM
Predictive power of 24/7 = 0.

FerryFor50
10-31-2013, 02:18 PM
3648

MarkD83
10-31-2013, 02:18 PM
before you lock this thread.

Lets do some 2 point statistics on the 247 sports thread.

For one player everyone switched their prediction in the last few hours to hopefully be correct.

For another player the school that was picked wasn't even predicted by any expert.

So 0 for 2. I have a short attention span and am moving on.

GGLC
10-31-2013, 02:19 PM
Predictive power of 24/7 = 0.

Not only that, I think it has to potential to do more harm than good. As I emailed some friends earlier today:

I just worry that the 24/7 prediction tracking (which I'm sure the kids are aware of) could unconsciously bias someone into going against the grain when all of the predictions lean one way and the kid has two schools in equipoise. "Oh, 100 percent of you have thought for months that I'm going to Duke? Well, surprise!" You may say that this isn't very likely or that we wouldn't want a kid who lets that kind of stuff influence them, but (a) people make decisions in weird ways sometimes, (b) it only takes this happening once to have a significant impact on a program, and (c) they're just kids, and kids can be contrary.

If it were up to me, we wouldn't have stuff like 24/7.

So Looney ends up with a school that none of the 24/7 tracked predictions named in advance. Who's to say that he wasn't swayed in part by a desire to do something different than what all the experts were predicting?

OldPhiKap
10-31-2013, 02:21 PM
Best of luck to the young man, I hope he has a long and fruitful career.

brevity
10-31-2013, 02:22 PM
Looks like that crystal ball ain't so crystal clear.

Oh my God, it's a mirage.


So now with both Okonoboh and Looney in the books, the 24/7 CB is not impressing.

I disagree. I'm impressed. The 24/7 Crystal Ball has very elaborately demonstrated the adage that Nobody Knows Anything (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adventures_in_the_Screen_Trade).

blUDAYvil
10-31-2013, 02:35 PM
Not only that, I think it has to potential to do more harm than good.

Who does the 24/7 system harm? If the kid wants to surprise everyone for the sake of it, his prerogative! There's no way of preventing people from trying to guess where these kids are going to end up, so no way to do away with stuff like 24/7.

In a way 24/7 is a lot like consensus stock ratings. It's interesting to see how many/which analysts are rating specific stocks as buys/holds/sells. But one shouldn't rely on this to determine whether to actually buy/hold/sell (despite the fact that these analysts need to demonstrate that they know what they're talking about unlike 24/7 "insiders").

Kedsy
10-31-2013, 02:39 PM
In a way 24/7 is a lot like consensus stock ratings.

The difference is with stocks it's not one 18-year-old kid who entirely determines which way the stock will go in real life.

CLW
10-31-2013, 02:39 PM
Who does the 24/7 system harm? If the kid wants to surprise everyone for the sake of it, his prerogative! There's no way of preventing people from trying to guess where these kids are going to end up, so no way to do away with stuff like 24/7.

In a way 24/7 is a lot like consensus stock ratings. It's interesting to see how many/which analysts are rating specific stocks as buys/holds/sells. But one shouldn't rely on this to determine whether to actually buy/hold/sell (despite the fact that these analysts need to demonstrate that they know what they're talking about unlike 24/7 "insiders").

I agree but if my stock broker/analyst kept going 0/34 I might reconsider whether I want to keep paying him for his expert advise. I believe 247 is a pay site, or they want you to pay to access their forum posts/articles with all their "expert" incite into these recruiting battles.

GGLC
10-31-2013, 02:40 PM
Who does the 24/7 system harm? If the kid wants to surprise everyone for the sake of it, his prerogative! There's no way of preventing people from trying to guess where these kids are going to end up, so no way to do away with stuff like 24/7.

In a way 24/7 is a lot like consensus stock ratings. It's interesting to see how many/which analysts are rating specific stocks as buys/holds/sells. But one shouldn't rely on this to determine whether to actually buy/hold/sell (despite the fact that these analysts need to demonstrate that they know what they're talking about unlike 24/7 "insiders").

I said it more succinctly in the other thread. The 24/7 system has the potential to change outcomes by attempting to predict them, and as the fan of a school that was the 100 percent leader in the Looney sweepstakes until the last day or so simply because most analysts apparently picked Duke as their choice for lack of concrete information, I don't want a recruit being swayed AGAINST picking the consensus leader on 24/7 because they want to surprise people. We've seen two recruitments now where the recruit ends up with an out-of-the-blue choice -- the only schools that are benefitted by that are the perceived dark horses, and Duke isn't usually a perceived dark horse when it's made a sustained push with someone.

Kedsy
10-31-2013, 02:41 PM
I believe 247 is a pay site, or they want you to pay to access their forum posts/articles with all their "expert" incite into these recruiting battles.

Yeah, "incite" might actually be the right word here, if the mob lining up outside 247 right now is any indication...

rotogod00
10-31-2013, 05:50 PM
Based on how well they did predicting Looney's landing place, should we be happy or upset that since Looney decided for UCLA, 6 "experts" have switched their predictions on Reid Travis to Duke

Duvall
10-31-2013, 05:55 PM
Based on how well they did predicting Looney's landing place, should we be happy or upset that since Looney decided for UCLA, 6 "experts" have switched their predictions on Reid Travis to Duke

I don't think it tells us much of anything.

rotogod00
10-31-2013, 06:03 PM
I don't think it tells us much of anything.

Agree. Just a reactionary thing.

ChillinDuke
10-31-2013, 06:12 PM
Based on how well they did predicting Looney's landing place, should we be happy or upset that since Looney decided for UCLA, 6 "experts" have switched their predictions on Reid Travis to Duke

As far as I'm concerned, the CB is 0 for 2.

So take that however you will.

- Chillin

mph
10-31-2013, 06:55 PM
Based on how well they did predicting Looney's landing place, should we be happy or upset that since Looney decided for UCLA, 6 "experts" have switched their predictions on Reid Travis to Duke

I think indifference is the rational response.

airowe
11-01-2013, 09:37 AM
Definitely wasn't a good day for the Crystal Ball yesterday with regards to Kevon Looney. It's great to actually have people's predictions on the record and you're going to get deserved blowback when they're wrong and (hopefully) credit when they're right. I'm assuming with all the negativity directed towards the Crystal Ball because of incorrect predictions for Looney that there is another site out there that had correct predictions/predictors?

ChillinDuke
11-01-2013, 09:48 AM
Definitely wasn't a good day for the Crystal Ball yesterday with regards to Kevon Looney. It's great to actually have people's predictions on the record and you're going to get deserved blowback when they're wrong and (hopefully) credit when they're right. I'm assuming with all the negativity directed towards the Crystal Ball because of incorrect predictions for Looney that there is another site out there that had correct predictions/predictors?

No sites that I've seen. Sounds like no one called this one.

Yes, negativity towards the CB but moreso with an emphasis that there is no such thing as "insiders" because the kid is the final decision maker and no one knows anything until he announces - it's a point that I still don't entirely understand. But I don't think the negativity is directed so much at the CB in particular as it is at the ability of anyone to reliably forecast recruits' decisions in general.

- Chillin

RepoMan
11-01-2013, 09:50 AM
I think (irrationally perhaps) many people were just sort of hoping that the 24/7 "team" had more insight than the average Joe. That certainly doesn't seem the case with Looney.


I think a couple earlier posters hit the nail on the head with a potential tweak -- don't just predict result, but predict with a confidence factor.

Steven43
11-01-2013, 10:04 AM
I wonder if some of the very high-level recruits that list Duke on their final list might be doing it just to hedge their bets for the future.

In other words because Coach K is the team USA coach perhaps they want to be somewhat in his good graces by at least being able to say, "Coach (K), I strongly considered the Duke program and really liked everything about it, but in the end I simply felt School X was a slightly better fit for me. Of course that does not reflect negatively on Duke. Oh, and if I had the opportunity to do it over again I would choose Duke."

Dev11
11-01-2013, 10:05 AM
I wonder if some of the very high-level recruits that list Duke on their final list might be doing it just to hedge their bets for the future.

In other words because Coach K is the team USA coach perhaps they want to be somewhat in his good graces by at least being able to figuratively say, "Coach (K), I strongly considered the Duke program and really liked everything about it, but in the end I simply felt School X was a slightly better fit for me. Of course that does not reflect negatively on Duke. Oh, and if I had the opportunity to do it over again I would choose Duke."

I doubt this makes an ounce of difference when K is picking Team USA.

Steven43
11-01-2013, 10:08 AM
I'm sure you are correct, but the recruits and their families/advisors might believe otherwise. Who knows?

superdave
11-01-2013, 10:56 AM
Definitely wasn't a good day for the Crystal Ball yesterday with regards to Kevon Looney. It's great to actually have people's predictions on the record and you're going to get deserved blowback when they're wrong and (hopefully) credit when they're right. I'm assuming with all the negativity directed towards the Crystal Ball because of incorrect predictions for Looney that there is another site out there that had correct predictions/predictors?

You know what, it's a useful tool for three reasons. First, it aggregates predictions. Second, it is a real-time indicator of what is going on and where the movement is. Third, it is an accountability tool for having people put their predictions out their and their credibility on the line.

Looney is likely going to be an aberration once we get through a few more of these things.

airowe
11-01-2013, 10:59 AM
I think (irrationally perhaps) many people were just sort of hoping that the 24/7 "team" had more insight than the average Joe. That certainly doesn't seem the case with Looney.


I think a couple earlier posters hit the nail on the head with a potential tweak -- don't just predict result, but predict with a confidence factor.

I like that idea a lot and will suggest it. There is a scoring system coming out shortly that will have, among other things, duration of prediction factored in. i.e. Someone who changes their picks closer to the time of announcement will not get nearly as many points as someone who made a pick a lot further out and stuck with it.

freshmanjs
11-01-2013, 11:01 AM
I like that idea a lot and will suggest it. There is a scoring system coming out shortly that will have, among other things, duration of prediction factored in. i.e. Someone who changes their picks closer to the time of announcement will not get nearly as many points as someone who made a pick a lot further out and stuck with it.

the scoring system will be very difficult to get right. what you describe could create an incentive for people to guess early instead of waiting to have any real insight. it also creates an incentive not to change your pick late if you guessed early, even if you think you are now only 20% likely to be right or something. unless it's done very carefully.

flyingdutchdevil
11-01-2013, 11:03 AM
You know what, it's a useful tool for three reasons. First, it aggregates predictions. Second, it is a real-time indicator of what is going on and where the movement is. Third, it is an accountability tool for having people put their predictions out their and their credibility on the line.

Looney is likely going to be an aberration once we get through a few more of these things.

First - absolutely. Second - absolutely. Third - absolutely. But I don't think Looney is an aberration. These "shockers" are fairly common with recruits. In the ESPN top 12, two of the recruits were huge surprises (Mudiay and Looney) and I'm sure there are plenty more.

I think recruits that keep the process close to them (like Looney) leave EVERY analyst in the dark, which makes the recruiting process so much more exciting and frustrating.

I like the CB feature, but it does add a massive layer of frustration for fans.

Anywho, next play. Let's get that sexy foursome of Winslow, Reid, and OkaJones.

Sidenote - Coach K must have known about Looney early. I assume that's why he went after Reid so hard so recently.

airowe
11-01-2013, 11:04 AM
the scoring system will be very difficult to get right. what you describe could create an incentive for people to guess early instead of waiting to have any real insight. it also creates an incentive not to change your pick late if you guessed early, even if you think you are now only 20% likely to be right or something. unless it's done very carefully.

I think the main motivation for the change is to provide a disincentive to people changing their picks around willy-nilly at the last minute either 1) hoping to get it right by guessing or 2) following the lead of some of the national pickers. We get told quite often not to make a prediction unless we have actionable intelligence, but there are some people who don't follow that direction obviously. This is just another way to hopefully try and curtail some of the WAGs.

airowe
11-01-2013, 11:09 AM
I think recruits that keep the process close to them (like Looney) leave EVERY analyst in the dark, which makes the recruiting process so much more exciting and frustrating.

It wasn't just analysts. It was coaches too.


Sidenote - Coach K must have known about Looney early. I assume that's why he went after Reid so hard so recently.

There was certainly uncertainty there, which may have led to the pursuit of Travis, but they were in the dark up until the announcement as well. Duke's been in touch with Reid's coaches since June, by the way. (http://duke.247sports.com/Board/59461/Reid-Travis-20017248)

BD80
11-01-2013, 11:12 AM
... This is just another way to hopefully try and curtail some of the WAGs.

Wives and Girlfriends?

Do they really need to be curtailed? Sure, if they start appearing on "reality" shows, but generally they are worthwhile.

Particularly tennis WAGs and soccer WAGs. And golf WAGs. And football QB WAGs.

superdave
11-01-2013, 11:41 AM
I like that idea a lot and will suggest it. There is a scoring system coming out shortly that will have, among other things, duration of prediction factored in. i.e. Someone who changes their picks closer to the time of announcement will not get nearly as many points as someone who made a pick a lot further out and stuck with it.

Another way to think about this, which may be more cumbersome, is to give each person 100 points to allocate among possible schools. You could even have an undecided bucket.

Steven43
11-01-2013, 11:42 AM
Here's to hoping Reid and Tyus really get along well. I am glad K reached out to Reid in June so that a relationship was established. Now Duke can honestly say they were interested in Reid long before missing on Looney.

airowe
11-01-2013, 11:49 AM
Wives and Girlfriends?

Do they really need to be curtailed? Sure, if they start appearing on "reality" shows, but generally they are worthwhile.

Particularly tennis WAGs and soccer WAGs. And golf WAGs. And football QB WAGs.

Wrong WAG (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_Wild-I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this._Guess)

dukedoc
11-01-2013, 12:02 PM
It would also be nice to be able to tell with clarity whether a given expert truly has "relevance" to the recruitment at hand. Presumably any expert who weighs in does, but some may just weight in to try to improve their stats by weighing in on a recruitment that seems to be a done deal and an easy "correct" prediction.

Even among the experts with relevance they have varying importance in my view - for Kevon's certainly the big national guys, the Duke guys, the Tennessee guys, etc. Less so experts focused on school uninvolved in the recruitment. So, it would be nice to somehow differentially weight the predictions based on the particular expert's stature and proximity to the situation. At present Jerry Meyer's predictions counts the same as some other guy covering a particular school. Maybe that's ok, but maybe not.

airowe
11-01-2013, 12:24 PM
It would also be nice to be able to tell with clarity whether a given expert truly has "relevance" to the recruitment at hand. Presumably any expert who weighs in does, but some may just weight in to try to improve their stats by weighing in on a recruitment that seems to be a done deal and an easy "correct" prediction.

Even among the experts with relevance they have varying importance in my view - for Kevon's certainly the big national guys, the Duke guys, the Tennessee guys, etc. Less so experts focused on school uninvolved in the recruitment. So, it would be nice to somehow differentially weight the predictions based on the particular expert's stature and proximity to the situation. At present Jerry Meyer's predictions counts the same as some other guy covering a particular school. Maybe that's ok, but maybe not.

Here's an idea of what's going on behind the scenes. (https://twitter.com/NoahStanley247/status/393026568710144000/photo/1) From what I understand, most of this stuff is close to being released. Note the "Top Experts", "Local Experts" and Experts from each school on the right hand side.

**The word expert will still have to be taken somewhat loosely. :D

dukedoc
11-01-2013, 12:42 PM
Here's an idea of what's going on behind the scenes. (https://twitter.com/NoahStanley247/status/393026568710144000/photo/1) From what I understand, most of this stuff is close to being released. Note the "Top Experts", "Local Experts" and Experts from each school on the right hand side.

**The word expert will still have to be taken somewhat loosely. :D

You guys clearly have ESPN, having read my mind on this one. Very cool.

Dev11
11-01-2013, 01:57 PM
Here's an idea of what's going on behind the scenes. (https://twitter.com/NoahStanley247/status/393026568710144000/photo/1) From what I understand, most of this stuff is close to being released. Note the "Top Experts", "Local Experts" and Experts from each school on the right hand side.

**The word expert will still have to be taken somewhat loosely. :D

airowe, devoted DBR reader and therefore Top Expert

JasonEvans
11-02-2013, 12:09 PM
Adam,

Make sure the guys at 247 include a way for someone to re-affirm their pick. As I mentioned further upthread, there can be an appearance of "momentum" toward a certain school because folks are picking it even as folks who had picks a different school are continuing to hear that school is the pick but are unable to back that up with a new pick.

In the case of Looney -- ignore how it all turned out -- we all saw this apparent movement toward Florida in the final days. Well, let's say that a lot of gurus were still hearing strong things about Duke. Had they not made any previous pick or had they picked some other school, they would have been able to show the Duke momentum by picking Duke. But, because they had previously picked Duke 3-6 months ago, it looked like their picks were stale and based only on old information.

Does that make sense? I think it would be a valuable function. So, on June 2nd, XYZ guru picked Duke. Then, on Sept 9th he heard new, addition positive Duke buzz. He would be able to register a "renewed" or "reaffirmed" pick of Duke. I think this, along with a confidence score, would be quite useful to the recruiting community.

-Jason "as much as we trash it, there is no question that there is value in the CB, if not always as a predictor, at least as a way of measuring guru success" Evans

tommy
11-02-2013, 11:44 PM
The Looney experience has obviously soured some on the utility of the Crystal Ball, especially coming on the heels of the resolution of the Okonoboh recruitment. I hadn't really been watching it at all prior to Okonoboh, but I do think it bears watching for at least a few more major recruits to see if the guys contributing to the CB really have any clue, or if they're for the most part just following the crowd, with the crowd having formed around tidbits of speculative "information."

Two other bigtime recruits committed on the same day as did Looney. James Blackmon, Jr. a shooting guard out of Indiana, committed to IU. He had originally committed to them, then re-opened his recruitment, only to recommit to the Hoosiers. Unusual for that to happen. How did the CB perform? If I'm reading it correctly, and I may not be, but it looks to me like every one of the contributors (20 of them) who made a prediction, or a change of prediction, on the actual commitment date, October 31, correctly picked Indiana. On the other hand, every single contributor (25 of them) who made a prediction prior to October 31, including some on October 30 but others dating back as far as August 9, selected Kentucky. Of course all 25 of those folks were wrong.

There are different ways to interpret that. To me, it sounds like anywhere from 1 to 20 of the 45 predictors heard some tidbit of information on the actual day of commitment and either made or changed their pick on that day, hours or minutes or seconds before the announcement, and they got it right. Or else they took a guess. Everyone else was wrong. Up to you to determine how much value there is in that.

The CB seemed to perform better with regard to Devin Booker, shooting guard out of Mississippi, and a guy Duke had been recruiting prior to Grayson Allen's commitment. Booker committed on October 31 to Kentucky. The CB had 37 of its 39 predictors correctly forecast Kentucky as the winner. Pretty good, especially since Michigan was considered a real contender in this one, as Booker has deep family roots in Michigan. 11 of the 37 picked Kentucky on October 29, 30, or 31. Three of those 11 changed earlier picks to Kentucky in those last three days. But to be fair, a good number of folks on the CB called it for Kentucky in August or September, and they turned out to be right.

Reid Travis is next up. Right now, 27 of the 34 have Duke, and the other 7 forecast Minnesota. None for Stanford. 20 of the 27 Duke predictors made their picks on or before September 18. 6 of the remaining 7 made their picks on October 31, presumably after the Looney commitment to UCLA opened up a spot for a 4-man at Duke going forward. Will be interesting to see if there's any movement with this one this week leading up to Travis's announcement.

airowe
11-03-2013, 08:12 AM
Two other bigtime recruits committed on the same day as did Looney. James Blackmon, Jr. a shooting guard out of Indiana, committed to IU. He had originally committed to them, then re-opened his recruitment, only to recommit to the Hoosiers. Unusual for that to happen. How did the CB perform? If I'm reading it correctly, and I may not be, but it looks to me like every one of the contributors (20 of them) who made a prediction, or a change of prediction, on the actual commitment date, October 31, correctly picked Indiana. On the other hand, every single contributor (25 of them) who made a prediction prior to October 31, including some on October 30 but others dating back as far as August 9, selected Kentucky. Of course all 25 of those folks were wrong.

There are different ways to interpret that. To me, it sounds like anywhere from 1 to 20 of the 45 predictors heard some tidbit of information on the actual day of commitment and either made or changed their pick on that day, hours or minutes or seconds before the announcement, and they got it right. Or else they took a guess. Everyone else was wrong. Up to you to determine how much value there is in that.

The CB seemed to perform better with regard to Devin Booker, shooting guard out of Mississippi, and a guy Duke had been recruiting prior to Grayson Allen's commitment. Booker committed on October 31 to Kentucky. The CB had 37 of its 39 predictors correctly forecast Kentucky as the winner. Pretty good, especially since Michigan was considered a real contender in this one, as Booker has deep family roots in Michigan. 11 of the 37 picked Kentucky on October 29, 30, or 31. Three of those 11 changed earlier picks to Kentucky in those last three days. But to be fair, a good number of folks on the CB called it for Kentucky in August or September, and they turned out to be right.

I was told the day of the Blackmon announcement that he was "likely" to pick Indiana, but have decided to enforce a moratorium on my picks the night before an announcement as I believe it cheapens the validity of the predicting tool to change a selection that close to the final resolution. 247Sports as a whole did that in the past, but for some reason have relaxed those restrictions.

Booker to Kentucky was locked in as soon as Emmanuel Mudiay chose SMU and the Wildcats offered Tyler Ulis. There was no way I was changing that pick, regardless of what news came out.

airowe
11-03-2013, 08:18 AM
Adam,

Make sure the guys at 247 include a way for someone to re-affirm their pick. As I mentioned further upthread, there can be an appearance of "momentum" toward a certain school because folks are picking it even as folks who had picks a different school are continuing to hear that school is the pick but are unable to back that up with a new pick.

In the case of Looney -- ignore how it all turned out -- we all saw this apparent movement toward Florida in the final days. Well, let's say that a lot of gurus were still hearing strong things about Duke. Had they not made any previous pick or had they picked some other school, they would have been able to show the Duke momentum by picking Duke. But, because they had previously picked Duke 3-6 months ago, it looked like their picks were stale and based only on old information.

Does that make sense? I think it would be a valuable function. So, on June 2nd, XYZ guru picked Duke. Then, on Sept 9th he heard new, addition positive Duke buzz. He would be able to register a "renewed" or "reaffirmed" pick of Duke. I think this, along with a confidence score, would be quite useful to the recruiting community.

-Jason "as much as we trash it, there is no question that there is value in the CB, if not always as a predictor, at least as a way of measuring guru success" Evans

Love that idea, and it's in discussion.

dukedoc
11-03-2013, 09:09 AM
I still like the CB despite the Looney surprise. I'm not sure it has ever claimed to tell us peasant masses where recruit X is definitely going to go. It doesn't (and can't) do that. I'm pretty sure we masses have placed that intent on it (because we want so desperately for it to do that). Rather, it simply aggregates the information that historically we've gone to multiple sites and twitter handles to collect - where do the various experts feel this is leading? The CB does that work for us and provides not only tremendous entertainment value (which is why there are so many threads on the various sites dedicating to discussing it) but also the same if not better "intelligence" then we've had before, all in an interesting format. It also allows us to discuss recruitments like Looney's with greater nuance because we can see the exact percentage of experts who had predicted this school or that school rather than saying "yeah, a lot of guys were picking Duke to get him." We have exact proportions to work with. All good stuff. The new features will make it even better.

The 247 CB won't tell you where a kid is going, only the kid will. The 247 CB does what we fans want - it gives us tantalizing information in a novel aggregate format and thereby amplifies the enjoyment many derive from following these crazy minidramas we call recruitments. We wish someone could tell us where recruit X or Y is going and so we lash out at 247 as if it could really do that. Of course it can't do that. But we'll still go back to it because it holds a lot of value for various other reasons.

GGLC
11-03-2013, 09:15 AM
I disagree.

Kedsy
11-03-2013, 10:10 AM
I was told the day of the Blackmon announcement that he was "likely" to pick Indiana, but have decided to enforce a moratorium on my picks the night before an announcement as I believe it cheapens the validity of the predicting tool to change a selection that close to the final resolution. 247Sports as a whole did that in the past, but for some reason have relaxed those restrictions.

Booker to Kentucky was locked in as soon as Emmanuel Mudiay chose SMU and the Wildcats offered Tyler Ulis. There was no way I was changing that pick, regardless of what news came out.

What I'd think most fans would want from this tool is information the experts have that we don't have. My guess is the two above scenarios are the primary scenarios in which they have that information. Unfortunately, that means the tool probably doesn't bear close scrutiny until the last 48 hours of the recruitment.

If the kid is considered a lock and a last-minute flurry of contrary information never happens, then the early buzz was probably right. If in the last 48 hours experts are falling over each other to jump ship (like Okonoboh, Looney, and Blackmon), then the early favorite was wrong. It still may not tell us where the kid's really going (e.g., Looney), but it presumably means information is leaking that the kid's not sold on the favorite.

So, personally, I won't put much stock in the predictions for our remaining targets until the last 48 hours before the announcement dates.

More specifically, the idea that several experts switched Travis to Duke after Looney went elsewhere doesn't mean very much because these experts are applying logic (something we can do just as easily) rather than information. If a lot of experts weigh in during the day leading up to Travis's announcement, that would seem to have a better chance of being based on actual information. As far as Okafor and Jones and Winslow, all we know is none of them have made up their minds yet. And for the most part that's all the experts know, too. So the exact percentage of experts picking one school or another would appear to be largely irrelevant, and probably will be right up until the last couple days before they announce.

Obviously, this is just my opinion. Your mileage may vary.

Clay Feet POF
11-03-2013, 11:28 AM
I disagree.

I agree with “GGLC”. As a fan with no recruiting experience and investing too much of my heart into Guru’s predictions, I think the Looney and Okonoboh decisions exposed a substantial flaw in the recruiting formulas.

It seems to me an investigation as to why they missed so badly could help in repairing this flaw.

On another note, I am really curious as to what event prompted the word “Strange” in the Looney case. I remember it seem to appear after he announced the decision would be on Halloween. Anyone have any ideas why the word was used.

Maybe a category called “Strange” should be included in the Guru’s recruiting formula.

After this,I’m learning to invest less of my heart in Experts opinion

budwom
11-03-2013, 12:00 PM
The extent to which so many on this board seem to actually think these "experts" have any inside knowledge is truly astonishing.

The vast majority of these guys simply regurgitate other people's guesses and rumors. Some that have been cited as
experts are anything but.

But hey, if one gets comfort out of reading what these guys have to say, I suppose there's no harm...

p.s. is there a flaw in their process? Yes....they don't really have any inside knowledge whatsoever, that's the flaw.
In Looney's case, no one knew anything, because the kid said he and his family wouldn't talk. And they didn't.

mattman91
11-03-2013, 12:08 PM
The extent to which so many on this board seem to actually think these "experts" have any inside knowledge is truly astonishing.

The vast majority of these guys simply regurgitate other people's guesses and rumors. Some that have been cited as
experts are anything but.

But hey, if one gets comfort out of reading what these guys have to say, I suppose there's no harm...

p.s. is there a flaw in their process? Yes....they don't really have any inside knowledge whatsoever, that's the flaw.
In Looney's case, no one knew anything, because the kid said he and his family wouldn't talk. And they didn't.

Exactly. This has become so annoying, sure it may be fun to make predictions, but NOBODY but the recruit and maybe his family knows. Just sit back and let things unfold.

dukedoc
11-03-2013, 12:19 PM
I disagree.

A totally legitimate opinion that I respect. It's just interesting how polarizing it is. I haven't paid a single cent to 247. I go there on my own volition. If I'm gonna be frustrated or mad it should be at myself for continuing to click on the site. Many who express frustration will probably continue to click as well, oddly.

Clay Feet POF
11-03-2013, 12:24 PM
When the Experts are right, whats the thinking....Lucky Guess?

ChillinDuke
11-04-2013, 09:51 AM
Exactly. This has become so annoying, sure it may be fun to make predictions, but NOBODY but the recruit and maybe his family knows. Just sit back and let things unfold.

Not that I want him to actually respond, but I certainly wonder what Adam Rowe's position would be on this. While it's certainly possible that only "the recruit and maybe his family" knows, I don't think this is always the case. I also don't think every recruit wants their decision to be a "shocker". For example, I can say with near certainty that I (at 18 years old) wouldn't have cared if my decision was considered to be a shocker or not. Just wouldn't have cared one bit. Because the decision would have been more important to me (and my family) than any perceived shock value which evaporates in near minutes after you announce - yet your decision lingers on for years, nay a lifetime. So is it really true that every recruit wants to shock everyone or cares who the leaders are thought to be or wants to completely control the process? Seems like a lot of generalizing.

- Chillin

Kedsy
11-04-2013, 10:13 AM
Not that I want him to actually respond, but I certainly wonder what Adam Rowe's position would be on this. While it's certainly possible that only "the recruit and maybe his family" knows, I don't think this is always the case. I also don't think every recruit wants their decision to be a "shocker". For example, I can say with near certainty that I (at 18 years old) wouldn't have cared if my decision was considered to be a shocker or not. Just wouldn't have cared one bit. Because the decision would have been more important to me (and my family) than any perceived shock value which evaporates in near minutes after you announce - yet your decision lingers on for years, nay a lifetime. So is it really true that every recruit wants to shock everyone or cares who the leaders are thought to be or wants to completely control the process? Seems like a lot of generalizing.

- Chillin

Agreed. Every recruit is different and has different motivations. Also, I don't know if it's shock value as much as simply not wanting to appear predictable, and I think a lot of kids feel that way.

When I was at Duke, I was a DJ at WDUK for a couple years. I remember my first day at the station, when the student-head of the organization was showing us the ropes. For my first song ever on the air, I pulled a Greg Kihn album out of the stacks and the guy said, "Ah, the Breakup Song." In retrospect I'm sure he meant it as approval, but that's not what I heard as a 20-year-old kid. In fact, I had intended to play the Breakup Song (which was a big hit at the time), but I ended up playing a different song off the album instead.

Obviously it's not a perfect analogy, as one song on the radio is a blip compared to your college decision, but it was a big enough moment that I still remember it. My point is you can never tell what's going through an adolescent's head at any particular moment.

FerryFor50
11-04-2013, 10:14 AM
So who's the next recruit we can all discuss ad nauseum in a thread and be incorrect about? The lull is killing me!

airowe
11-04-2013, 10:24 AM
Not that I want him to actually respond, but I certainly wonder what Adam Rowe's position would be on this. While it's certainly possible that only "the recruit and maybe his family" knows, I don't think this is always the case. I also don't think every recruit wants their decision to be a "shocker". For example, I can say with near certainty that I (at 18 years old) wouldn't have cared if my decision was considered to be a shocker or not. Just wouldn't have cared one bit. Because the decision would have been more important to me (and my family) than any perceived shock value which evaporates in near minutes after you announce - yet your decision lingers on for years, nay a lifetime. So is it really true that every recruit wants to shock everyone or cares who the leaders are thought to be or wants to completely control the process? Seems like a lot of generalizing.

- Chillin

Sure that's the case. The rest of us are just guessing. Some more educated than others. In the case of Kevon Looney, I was misled by his own brother as to where Duke stood.

The Crystal Ball is only new in that it puts predictions of analysts in one place and allows you to go back and look at them afterwards to try and gain some insight into who (if anyone) knows anything. People have been making predictions on where recruits end up for years. Now we have a place to hold those people accountable, whether they're right or wrong. It isn't the end all-be all on where a teenager will make one of the most important decisions of their lives. But it's fun to look at and discuss as another tea leaf.

GGLC
11-04-2013, 10:31 AM
When the Experts are right, whats the thinking....Lucky Guess?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

airowe
11-04-2013, 11:21 AM
Crystal Ball 2.0 releasing on Wednesday morning. (http://247sports.com/Board/30/-Crystal-Ball-20-releases-Wed-Morning-22818893/1)

Clay Feet POF
11-04-2013, 04:28 PM
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

Thank for the Link

BD80
11-04-2013, 04:32 PM
Crystal Ball 2.0 releasing on Wednesday morning. (http://247sports.com/Board/30/-Crystal-Ball-20-releases-Wed-Morning-22818893/1)

When it gets to version 8, there will be a trademark issue with the Magic 8 Ball. Predictive value will remain about the same - as the Magic 8 Ball.

tommy
11-04-2013, 06:15 PM
Trey Lyles, athletic 6'9" -6'10" forward out of Indiana is announcing tomorrow. Duke was involved with him at one time. Big time player. He committed pretty early to Indiana, then backed out of it, and is down to Louisville and Kentucky. As of today, 38 of the 40 predictors on 247's Crystal Ball have called it for Kentucky. Only seven of the 38 made their selection today. Prior to today, the most recent prediction was logged on October 23, with most of them significantly earlier than that. This would've been a good one on which to implement Jason's idea of predictors being able to "re-affirm" earlier projections further on down the line, if they still feel strongly about the call. Let's see what happens.

tommy
11-05-2013, 07:31 PM
Trey Lyles, athletic 6'9" -6'10" forward out of Indiana is announcing tomorrow. Duke was involved with him at one time. Big time player. He committed pretty early to Indiana, then backed out of it, and is down to Louisville and Kentucky. As of today, 38 of the 40 predictors on 247's Crystal Ball have called it for Kentucky. Only seven of the 38 made their selection today. Prior to today, the most recent prediction was logged on October 23, with most of them significantly earlier than that. This would've been a good one on which to implement Jason's idea of predictors being able to "re-affirm" earlier projections further on down the line, if they still feel strongly about the call. Let's see what happens.

Score one for the Crystal Ball, as Lyles committed to Kentucky today. As for his reasons, he cited Calipari's record of getting guys to the league who then become NBA All-Stars. Other than Derrick Rose, I wonder who else Lyles had in mind in making that statement.

But whatever. Should be no surprise at this point, but Kentucky is putting together a pretty strong class again. Big man Karl Towns, little guy Tyler Ullis, shooter Devin Booker, and now power forward Lyles. And they're right in the mix for do-it-all Stanley Johnson as well. Harrumph.

Henderson
11-05-2013, 07:37 PM
I wonder what Rowe saw when he predicted today that Reid Travis will commit to Minnesota.

FerryFor50
11-05-2013, 07:46 PM
I wonder what Rowe saw when he predicted today that Reid Travis will commit to Minnesota.

My guess is "the writing on the wall."

FerryFor50
11-05-2013, 07:50 PM
Score one for the Crystal Ball, as Lyles committed to Kentucky today. As for his reasons, he cited Calipari's record of getting guys to the league who then become NBA All-Stars. Other than Derrick Rose, I wonder who else Lyles had in mind in making that statement.



To be fair, Anthony Davis, John Wall, Demarcus Cousins, and Eric Bledsoe are well on their way.

The real question is, how does Cal get credit for turning guys who would have gone in the lottery if there was no draft age limit into NBA stars after just one year of "coaching"?

jimsumner
11-05-2013, 07:59 PM
To be fair, Anthony Davis, John Wall, Demarcus Cousins, and Eric Bledsoe are well on their way.

The real question is, how does Cal get credit for turning guys who would have gone in the lottery if there was no draft age limit into NBA stars after just one year of "coaching"?

We give K credit for Kyrie Irving.

Henderson
11-05-2013, 08:07 PM
We give K credit for Kyrie Irving.

Who is "we"? Don't count me. I'm proud he was a Duke player, but I don't credit Coach K with his basketball prowess. I doubt I'm alone.

FerryFor50
11-05-2013, 08:07 PM
We give K credit for Kyrie Irving.

I don't. I give K credit for getting Kyrie to come to Duke, but Kyrie played just 8-10 games. Hard to say K molded him into the player he is.

Granted I'm ecstatic we can say "Kyrie Irving was a Blue Devil."

Dukeblue91
11-05-2013, 08:08 PM
We give K credit for Kyrie Irving.

Well yes there is that. :cool:

Des Esseintes
11-06-2013, 03:28 AM
When I was at Duke, I was a DJ at WDUK for a couple years. I remember my first day at the station, when the student-head of the organization was showing us the ropes. For my first song ever on the air, I pulled a Greg Kihn album out of the stacks and the guy said, "Ah, the Breakup Song." In retrospect I'm sure he meant it as approval, but that's not what I heard as a 20-year-old kid. In fact, I had intended to play the Breakup Song (which was a big hit at the time), but I ended up playing a different song off the album instead.


And when you played "Jeopardy" you were absolutely making the correct call.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MIbOkmeAoH0

jv001
11-06-2013, 08:05 AM
Sure that's the case. The rest of us are just guessing. Some more educated than others. In the case of Kevon Looney, I was misled by his own brother as to where Duke stood.

The Crystal Ball is only new in that it puts predictions of analysts in one place and allows you to go back and look at them afterwards to try and gain some insight into who (if anyone) knows anything. People have been making predictions on where recruits end up for years. Now we have a place to hold those people accountable, whether they're right or wrong. It isn't the end all-be all on where a teenager will make one of the most important decisions of their lives. But it's fun to look at and discuss as another tea leaf.

Adam, a case of "the family shocks the world"? I love the anticipation of a potential recruit choosing Duke, and love it when they actually pick Duke. But I sure hate the disappointment of the recruit choosing another school. But that's just life, filled with ups and downs. GoDuke!

MCFinARL
11-06-2013, 09:17 AM
I don't. I give K credit for getting Kyrie to come to Duke, but Kyrie played just 8-10 games. Hard to say K molded him into the player he is.

Granted I'm ecstatic we can say "Kyrie Irving was a Blue Devil."

Where I think K/Duke really get credit for Kyrie Irving, and should, is in the skill and patience with which they helped him rehab his injury. Unfortunately, since most teens believe themselves to be invulnerable, they probably don't put much weight on that when choosing a school; it might help, though, with someone like Harry Giles who has already experienced a serious injury though only a sophomore.

FerryFor50
11-06-2013, 09:34 AM
Where I think K/Duke really get credit for Kyrie Irving, and should, is in the skill and patience with which they helped him rehab his injury. Unfortunately, since most teens believe themselves to be invulnerable, they probably don't put much weight on that when choosing a school; it might help, though, with someone like Harry Giles who has already experienced a serious injury though only a sophomore.

That's a fair statement, and one I agree with. It showed that Duke cares more about you as a human being than wins and losses.

dukedoc
11-06-2013, 09:36 AM
I don't. I give K credit for getting Kyrie to come to Duke, but Kyrie played just 8-10 games. Hard to say K molded him into the player he is.

Granted I'm ecstatic we can say "Kyrie Irving was a Blue Devil."

It's impossible to say how much of a player's eventual trajectory was derived solely from natural talent, coaching, or innumerable other factors. That said, I'm not sure K's influence on Kyrie can be summed up solely by the number of games he played. To the extent that a lot of the game is mental, particularly as a young star in the NBA, I imagine K had (and perhaps continues to have, not sure) an important role in influencing Kyrie in his emotional and mental maturation. I mean, Kyrie was at Duke the entire year. A lot of that time was spent on the bench injured, so he had a lot of time to observe, learn, and process even off the court. I agree with you though, regardless of from whence Kyrie's brilliance emerged, I'm just glad he is part of the family.

4Gen
11-06-2013, 09:46 AM
One consistent meme on IC is that the UNC program "develops" NBA big men, whereas Duke cannot. I often think I'd be some kind of sore if I were a tarheel big man which that program chose not to develop into league material, since the program certainly could have.

FerryFor50
11-06-2013, 09:46 AM
It's impossible to say how much of a player's eventual trajectory was derived solely from natural talent, coaching, or innumerable other factors.

Absolutely. My original point was that it baffled me how recruits credit Calipari for turning players into NBA all stars when the players that became all stars were already on their way. ANY coach they had would have likely been as beneficial. A year isn't really that long to coach someone. The best thing kids would get out of that year would be the reality check of college and having someone who has their best interests in mind. I can't say Cal is one of those coaches.

MCFinARL
11-06-2013, 10:00 AM
Absolutely. My original point was that it baffled me how recruits credit Calipari for turning players into NBA all stars when the players that became all stars were already on their way. ANY coach they had would have likely been as beneficial. A year isn't really that long to coach someone. The best thing kids would get out of that year would be the reality check of college and having someone who has their best interests in mind. I can't say Cal is one of those coaches.

I agree; this baffles me as well. I guess the one thing we could say for sure about Cal from a recruit's perspective is that he promises not to get in the way of their one-year path to the league.

FerryFor50
11-06-2013, 10:08 AM
I agree; this baffles me as well. I guess the one thing we could say for sure about Cal from a recruit's perspective is that he promises not to get in the way of their one-year path to the league.

It also says that if they don't show they're good enough to get into the league after one year, no guarantees that they get to stick around. ;)

FerryFor50
11-06-2013, 10:09 AM
One consistent meme on IC is that the UNC program "develops" NBA big men, whereas Duke cannot. I often think I'd be some kind of sore if I were a tarheel big man which that program chose not to develop into league material, since the program certainly could have.

Luckily, recent history has countered that argument. We owe it all to Sean May.

Kedsy
11-06-2013, 10:35 AM
I agree; this baffles me as well. I guess the one thing we could say for sure about Cal from a recruit's perspective is that he promises not to get in the way of their one-year path to the league.

How do we have any idea what we can say about Calipari and his relationship with his players? His one year guys all identify with UK and come back for the alumni events, etc., so they obviously enjoyed their one year there and feel loyalty to Calipari. How do any of us know whether or not Calipari has his players' interests at heart?

Seems to me, if we take credit for Luol Deng and Kyrie Irving and Austin Rivers then we have to give Cal credit for all his one year guys.

FerryFor50
11-06-2013, 10:41 AM
How do we have any idea what we can say about Calipari and his relationship with his players? His one year guys all identify with UK and come back for the alumni events, etc., so they obviously enjoyed their one year there and feel loyalty to Calipari. How do any of us know whether or not Calipari has his players' interests at heart?

Seems to me, if we take credit for Luol Deng and Kyrie Irving and Austin Rivers then we have to give Cal credit for all his one year guys.

The difference between K and Cal is that Cal specifically tailors his recruiting around one year players. K will take one year guys reluctantly, and only if it makes sense.

Also, when was the last time K ran players off to make room for recruits?

Channing
11-06-2013, 10:49 AM
The difference between K and Cal is that Cal specifically tailors his recruiting around one year players. K will take one year guys reluctantly, and only if it makes sense.

Also, when was the last time K ran players off to make room for recruits?

I'm not sure K reluctantly took Kyrie, Rivers, or Deng. In fact, I think all three (especially Kyrie and Rivers) were big recruiting wins for Duke.

Ichabod Drain
11-06-2013, 10:51 AM
The difference between K and Cal is that Cal specifically tailors his recruiting around one year players. K will take one year guys reluctantly, and only if it makes sense.

Also, when was the last time K ran players off to make room for recruits?

I'm not sure reluctant is the right word. I think K is happy to get any of the players he goes after.

FerryFor50
11-06-2013, 10:53 AM
I'm not sure K reluctantly took Kyrie, Rivers, or Deng. In fact, I think all three (especially Kyrie and Rivers) were big recruiting wins for Duke.

I didn't say he did. I said he reluctantly takes one year guys. Kyrie wasn't necessarily a lock to be a one year guy. Neither was Deng. Rivers was a guarantee to be, however.

K doesn't go after many guys that are only concerned about their NBA aspirations because of how it affects the overall team mentality.

Dev11
11-06-2013, 10:57 AM
One consistent meme on IC is that the UNC program "develops" NBA big men, whereas Duke cannot. I often think I'd be some kind of sore if I were a tarheel big man which that program chose not to develop into league material, since the program certainly could have.

Yeah look at all the world-beating bigs Roy has sent to the league since he came to UNC: Harrison Barnes, John Henson, Tyler Zeller, Ed Davis, Tyler Hansbrough, Brandan Wright, David Noel, Sean May, Marvin Williams. Total All-Star appearances: 0 (Admittedly, Barnes will probably make a few All-Star teams, but is that guy really a 'big'? I just listed all the forwards).

MCFinARL
11-06-2013, 11:06 AM
How do we have any idea what we can say about Calipari and his relationship with his players? His one year guys all identify with UK and come back for the alumni events, etc., so they obviously enjoyed their one year there and feel loyalty to Calipari. How do any of us know whether or not Calipari has his players' interests at heart?

Seems to me, if we take credit for Luol Deng and Kyrie Irving and Austin Rivers then we have to give Cal credit for all his one year guys.

Well, there you go again, Kedsy, using logical reasoning and demanding actual evidence on an internet discussion board. Geez.

That being said, I didn't mean to make a claim one way or another about whether Calipari has his players' interests at heart. I might argue just the contrary--that if a player's goal is to get to the NBA as soon as possible and his talent level makes that goal realistic, then not getting in the way (one way or another) might be the choice that is in the player's best interest. Agreed most of Calipari's players seem to like him and Kentucky. And agreed it's too easy, and probably sour grapes, to suggest that Calipari is only a good recruiter and not a good coach--and in fact I didn't say that.

The part that baffles me is the major credit seems to get for "developing" players who are pretty much NBA-ready when they get to school, as if those players wouldn't have been high draft picks no matter where they went to school. Not saying he doesn't make those players better, not saying he is exploiting them, just saying he isn't the reason those players are getting to the NBA.

Kedsy
11-06-2013, 11:17 AM
Not saying he doesn't make those players better, not saying he is exploiting them, just saying he isn't the reason those players are getting to the NBA.

Well, I completely agree with that. Most one-and-doners would have made the League eventually no matter what. Although you could possibly argue players like Orton and Bledsoe might not have gotten there quite as fast if they came from another program (although whether that's good or bad is another issue, especially for someone like Orton).

tommy
11-06-2013, 11:52 AM
I'm not sure K reluctantly took Kyrie, Rivers, or Deng. In fact, I think all three (especially Kyrie and Rivers) were big recruiting wins for Duke.

I know we're straying off topic here, but Deng was in no way recruited as a one-and-done player. In fact, it was a shock when he declared. His very unexpected departure affected the entire structure of Duke's roster for the next year or even two, obviously in a very negative way, as Duke had been counting on having Luol with us for at least two years if not three and his absence left a gigantic hole on the team.

zoroaster
11-06-2013, 12:02 PM
... To the extent that a lot of the game is mental, particularly as a young star in the NBA, I imagine K had (and perhaps continues to have, not sure) an important role in influencing Kyrie in his emotional and mental maturation. I mean, Kyrie was at Duke the entire year. A lot of that time was spent on the bench injured, so he had a lot of time to observe, learn, and process even off the court. ...

I remember Kyrie actually did say this when he was about to come back, regarding his time on the bench in the Duke environment:


If he returns, Irving thinks he'll be a better player after only seeing action in eight games this season because he has learned from the sideline.

"I think I had a high basketball IQ when I was playing," Irving said, "but now it's increased, tremendously."

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/campusrivalry/post/2011/03/duke-kyrie-irving-return-ncaa-tournament/1#.UnpxtCfwB8Q

johnb
11-06-2013, 12:56 PM
I didn't say he did. I said he reluctantly takes one year guys...
K doesn't go after many guys that are only concerned about their NBA aspirations because of how it affects the overall team mentality.

I don't think we can really know which players are selfish one and doners.

We can know that the team is CURRENTLY recruiting a bunch of players who are potentially one and done. If we wanted to lock in some four year, top 30 players, we could have ignored the guys at the top of the board (e.g., Okafor, Jones, and Turner).

FerryFor50
11-06-2013, 01:10 PM
I don't think we can really know which players are selfish one and doners.

We can know that the team is CURRENTLY recruiting a bunch of players who are potentially one and done. If we wanted to lock in some four year, top 30 players, we could have ignored the guys at the top of the board (e.g., Okafor, Jones, and Turner).

Yes, but as I mentioned, K is reluctantly doing this. He once wouldn't go after one and dones at all, but recently changed his stance on that because you HAVE to adapt.

He's always been a vocal opponent of one and dones:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/danpatrick/blog/67082/

http://hoopscoach.wordpress.com/2012/10/18/coach-k-on-one-and-done/

Henderson
11-06-2013, 01:50 PM
Yes, but as I mentioned, K is reluctantly doing this. He once wouldn't go after one and dones at all, but recently changed his stance on that because you HAVE to adapt.

He's always been a vocal opponent of one and dones:


I don't think he's been a vocal opponent of one and dones, but rather an opponent of the rules that have created the phenomenon. He doesn't think it's good for the sport of college basketball, but hasn't been against players going from HS to the NBA if that's what's best for them and their families. Part of (most of?) his criticism has been that it's not just bad for college basketball, but bad for these talented young men who don't need college to help them reach their goals. LeBron and Kobe are great examples.

It's a subtle difference, and that may have been what you meant anyway.

FerryFor50
11-06-2013, 01:50 PM
I don't think he's been a vocal opponent of one and dones, but rather an opponent of the rules that have created the phenomenon. He doesn't think it's good for the sport of college basketball, but hasn't been against players going from HS to the NBA if that's what's best for them and their families. Part of (most of?) his criticism has been that it's not just bad for college basketball, but bad for these talented young men who don't need college to help them reach their goals.

It's a subtle difference, and that may have been what you meant anyway.

Yea, that was what I meant. I know he doesn't dislike the players, just the system.

Li_Duke
11-06-2013, 03:05 PM
Yeah look at all the world-beating bigs Roy has sent to the league since he came to UNC: Harrison Barnes, John Henson, Tyler Zeller, Ed Davis, Tyler Hansbrough, Brandan Wright, David Noel, Sean May, Marvin Williams. Total All-Star appearances: 0 (Admittedly, Barnes will probably make a few All-Star teams, but is that guy really a 'big'? I just listed all the forwards).

I would be mildly surprised if Barnes makes even 1 all-star team. There are approximately 14 all-star forward spots that go to centers, power forwards, and small forwards each year, and I don't see Barnes ever being better than any of Kevin Durant, Blake Griffin, Kevin Love, Anthony Davis, or Paul George. Serge Ibaka, Nic Batum, Brook Lopez, LARRY SANDERS, Kawhi Leonard, Demarcus Cousins, Greg Monroe, Andre Drummond, Derrick Favors, and Jonas Valanciunas all have brighter futures. And that's ignoring guys over age 25 like Lebron James, Dwight Howard, Carmelo Anthony, Marc Gasol, LeMarcus Aldridge, Joakim Noah, Al Horford, Josh Smith, Roy Hibbert, Chris Bosh, etc... And ignoring future NBA players like Wiggins, Randle, Parker, Embrid, Gordan, etc... Yes, Barnes probably will rank 30th among all those eligible to be an all-star forward most years... But I do agree that he's likely to be the best of the "big man" pros that Roy Williams has produced...

Meanwhile Grant Hill will likely be a hall of famer, Elton Brand was 2nd team all-NBA, Carlos Boozer was 3rd team all-NBA, Christian Laettner was on the dream team, and Luol Deng was an all-star. Yep, UNC produces better big men.

brevity
11-06-2013, 03:13 PM
We owe it all to Sean May.

Unfortunately, now we have to pay him back. In cheeseburgers.

Des Esseintes
11-06-2013, 03:49 PM
I would be mildly surprised if Barnes makes even 1 all-star team. There are approximately 14 all-star forward spots that go to centers, power forwards, and small forwards each year, and I don't see Barnes ever being better than any of Kevin Durant, Blake Griffin, Kevin Love, Anthony Davis, or Paul George. Serge Ibaka, Nic Batum, Brook Lopez, LARRY SANDERS, Kawhi Leonard, Demarcus Cousins, Greg Monroe, Andre Drummond, Derrick Favors, and Jonas Valanciunas all have brighter futures. And that's ignoring guys over age 25 like Lebron James, Dwight Howard, Carmelo Anthony, Marc Gasol, LeMarcus Aldridge, Joakim Noah, Al Horford, Josh Smith, Roy Hibbert, Chris Bosh, etc... And ignoring future NBA players like Wiggins, Randle, Parker, Embrid, Gordan, etc... Yes, Barnes probably will rank 30th among all those eligible to be an all-star forward most years... But I do agree that he's likely to be the best of the "big man" pros that Roy Williams has produced...

Meanwhile Grant Hill will likely be a hall of famer, Elton Brand was 2nd team all-NBA, Carlos Boozer was 3rd team all-NBA, Christian Laettner was on the dream team, and Luol Deng was an all-star. Yep, UNC produces better big men.
I don't know. You think Barnes has no chance of exceeding the likes of Batum? I guarantee you the Warriors feel differently. Favors, Monroe, Drummond--all talented guys who haven't even come close to putting it all together. I probably dislike Barnes as much as you do, but it's wishcasting to automatically assume Barnes will be below every one of these guys every year. He might outproduce some of them this year, for that matter.

Also, every Duke big you mention except for Deng was gone before Roy arrived in Chapel Hill. It's probably only fair to compare equivalent timelines.

Skitzle
11-06-2013, 04:16 PM
Absolutely. My original point was that it baffled me how recruits credit Calipari for turning players into NBA all stars when the players that became all stars were already on their way. ANY coach they had would have likely been as beneficial. A year isn't really that long to coach someone. The best thing kids would get out of that year would be the reality check of college and having someone who has their best interests in mind. I can't say Cal is one of those coaches.

Doesn't baffle me at all. Rick Barnes is clearly the greatest coach of all time...

Henderson
11-06-2013, 05:00 PM
I don't know. You think Barnes has no chance of exceeding the likes of Batum? I guarantee you the Warriors feel differently. Favors, Monroe, Drummond--all talented guys who haven't even come close to putting it all together. I probably dislike Barnes as much as you do, but it's wishcasting to automatically assume Barnes will be below every one of these guys every year. He might outproduce some of them this year, for that matter.

Also, every Duke big you mention except for Deng was gone before Roy arrived in Chapel Hill. It's probably only fair to compare equivalent timelines.

But we're talking about the effect that a coach has on a player. So the "equivalent timelines" are the tenures of the coaches. Apples to apples = Coach K's development of players as a head coach vs. Daggumit's.

I'd mention Cal at this point, but then I'd have to mention Marcus Canby, and Cal doesn't want me to do that.

And to the main point: It's not a question of whether we "take credit for" Deng, Irving, et al. Of course we claim them as our own and take pride that they were Duke players. But that's not the same as crediting the coach with having "made" an NBA player after 1 year. Any 18 year old is going to improve with a year playing D1 college ball. And if the coach is good, he'll be improved by that too. But that's different from saying the coach made the player into an NBA talent or got him into the NBA. These top 1-done players are headed to the NBA anyway, and they make it or not on their ability.

Des Esseintes
11-06-2013, 06:05 PM
But we're talking about the effect that a coach has on a player. So the "equivalent timelines" are the tenures of the coaches. Apples to apples = Coach K's development of players as a head coach vs. Daggumit's.


You'll get no argument from me here, but the OP was listing several Duke frontcourt guys and saying Roy had produced nothing. A fairer analysis would either compare Duke vs. the Heels since Roy has been there or K vs. Roy since 1989. The latter would include guys like Paul Pierce, Raef Lafrentz, Drew Gooden, and--hilariously--Greg Ostertag as guys who have earned tens of millions each in the Association.

Dev11
11-06-2013, 06:08 PM
You'll get no argument from me here, but the OP was listing several Duke frontcourt guys and saying Roy had produced nothing. A fairer analysis would either compare Duke vs. the Heels since Roy has been there or K vs. Roy since 1989. The latter would include guys like Paul Pierce, Raef Lafrentz, Drew Gooden, and--hilariously--Greg Ostertag as guys who have earned tens of millions each in the Association.

I wasn't commenting on Duke's lack of quality bigs sent to the league in the last 9 years. I was merely pointing out that it's ridiculous for a UNC fan to take a dig at Duke for that issue, since they've got nothing, too.

In fact, as I think I've pointed out on this forum here before, only Kansas under regularly produces NBA bigs, and you could have made a case for UConn under Calhoun, but he's gone now. There are so few quality bigs made in the USA anymore that nobody really has a great track record for it.

MCFinARL
11-06-2013, 06:16 PM
Well, I completely agree with that. Most one-and-doners would have made the League eventually no matter what. Although you could possibly argue players like Orton and Bledsoe might not have gotten there quite as fast if they came from another program (although whether that's good or bad is another issue, especially for someone like Orton).

Yes, I agree Orton especially might have benefited from another year of seasoning--maybe at least a year of actually starting on a college basketball team.

Des Esseintes
11-06-2013, 07:00 PM
I wasn't commenting on Duke's lack of quality bigs sent to the league in the last 9 years. I was merely pointing out that it's ridiculous for a UNC fan to take a dig at Duke for that issue, since they've got nothing, too.


The OP I meant was Li Duke.

tommy
11-08-2013, 12:19 AM
Payton Dastrup is a 6'9" forward out of Phoenix, rated in the top 100 of the Class of 2014. He's a kid who's likely to take his 2 year Mormon mission before starting college. Duke was looking at him a bit, but never offered. In any event, all 20 of the 247 Crystal Ball guys predicted Dastrup to BYU. 6 of the 20 made their picks today, and 3 more yesterday. Dastrup committed to Ohio State today.

Reid Travis is next up tomorrow. 69% have him choosing Minnesota, 26% Duke, with almost all of the late action on the Gophers.

ice-9
11-08-2013, 12:36 AM
Payton Dastrup is a 6'9" forward out of Phoenix, rated in the top 100 of the Class of 2014. He's a kid who's likely to take his 2 year Mormon mission before starting college. Duke was looking at him a bit, but never offered. In any event, all 20 of the 247 Crystal Ball guys predicted Dastrup to BYU. 6 of the 20 made their picks today, and 3 more yesterday. Dastrup committed to Ohio State today.

Reid Travis is next up tomorrow. 69% have him choosing Minnesota, 26% Duke, with almost all of the late action on the Gophers.

Reid will probably pick UCLA then LOL.

throatybeard
11-08-2013, 02:22 AM
However, it's terrible for my emotional stability, my "hatred" of the recruiting process, and getting my hopes up and down like a roller coaster.

I am amazed how much we love recruiting. It's like a drug, only that you probably waste more time and may not have to go to rehab (great idea - college recruiting rehab. My idea first!)

Exactly. You can break this addiction, easily. Just give up on recruiting. Krzyzewski is the consummate professional. We may not win the national championship every single year, to the dismay of our whiniest fans, but he will recruit well enough to keep us among the top.

If we were, I don't know, Iowa State or Vanderbilt, a perfectly respectable program, but one that needed to absolutely land a HUGE GUY to even get in the national discussion, I would understand the hysteria. But given that we're Duke, I don't. Rolls oughta be slowed. If he retires in fall 2016 and then Wojo can't get anyone in 2018, I'll panic. But in the meantime, let's act like we have some dignity.

throatybeard
11-08-2013, 02:30 AM
Holy cow.

Speaking of Wojo, I just wikied him for some reason. As y'all know, he's a Pole from Baltimore who went to a Catholic school. I also teach a class on The Wire, so we talk about Baltimore a lot in that class.

Wojo's school closed due to cratering enrollment, in 2010. Like we haven't heard about that around here.

I love me some Wojo.

ice-9
11-08-2013, 04:21 AM
Exactly. You can break this addiction, easily. Just give up on recruiting.

What I do is I only read recruiting threads for the coming year, and usually only after the current season is over. I ignore everything else -- recruiting is just too unpredictable to invest time following high school sophomores or juniors. This keeps the amount of reading manageable, and even if you do start to follow a particular recruit (e.g. Tyus Jones). it's usually only a matter of months before you get a resolution.

ChillinDuke
11-08-2013, 09:09 AM
Exactly. You can break this addiction, easily. Just give up on recruiting. Krzyzewski is the consummate professional. We may not win the national championship every single year, to the dismay of our whiniest fans, but he will recruit well enough to keep us among the top.

If we were, I don't know, Iowa State or Vanderbilt, a perfectly respectable program, but one that needed to absolutely land a HUGE GUY to even get in the national discussion, I would understand the hysteria. But given that we're Duke, I don't. Rolls oughta be slowed. If he retires in fall 2016 and then Wojo can't get anyone in 2018, I'll panic. But in the meantime, let's act like we have some dignity.


What I do is I only read recruiting threads for the coming year, and usually only after the current season is over. I ignore everything else -- recruiting is just too unpredictable to invest time following high school sophomores or juniors. This keeps the amount of reading manageable, and even if you do start to follow a particular recruit (e.g. Tyus Jones). it's usually only a matter of months before you get a resolution.

That works for you guys, great. Why can't the rest of us enjoy our guilty habit / hobby?

Many are so quick on this board to tell those of us that enjoy following recruiting to drop it. Well, that's not fair.

And just because some of us go through the ups and downs of recruiting doesn't mean that:
1) we don't think K is the consummate professional;
2) our team's future hangs in the balance of any or every recruiting battle;
3) you have to.

- Chillin

rotogod00
11-08-2013, 09:15 AM
Payton Dastrup is a 6'9" forward out of Phoenix, rated in the top 100 of the Class of 2014. He's a kid who's likely to take his 2 year Mormon mission before starting college. Duke was looking at him a bit, but never offered. In any event, all 20 of the 247 Crystal Ball guys predicted Dastrup to BYU. 6 of the 20 made their picks today, and 3 more yesterday. Dastrup committed to Ohio State today.

Reid Travis is next up tomorrow. 69% have him choosing Minnesota, 26% Duke, with almost all of the late action on the Gophers.

The latest action is now on Stanford

Li_Duke
11-08-2013, 10:15 AM
The OP I meant was Li Duke.

I was giving the pro-Duke side of the "whether UNC is better at producing big men than Duke". I'm aware that the argument is flawed due to Coach K's longer tenure. However, the statistician in me would like to point out that if you modeled producing quality NBA big men for Duke and UNC as Poisson models, the underlying parameter would be bigger than Coach K.* :P

* Caveat is the small sample sizes we're working with.

Henderson
11-08-2013, 12:29 PM
I was giving the pro-Duke side of the "whether UNC is better at producing big men than Duke". I'm aware that the argument is flawed due to Coach K's longer tenure. However, the statistician in me would like to point out that if you modeled producing quality NBA big men for Duke and UNC as Poisson models, the underlying parameter would be bigger than Coach K.* :P

* Caveat is the small sample sizes we're working with.

Kerlina fans are googling "Poisson models" right now. But they keep screwing it up and coming up with fish and recipes, wondering if you are talking about Wahoos or Red Lobster. So cruel to trod so mercilessly on the ignorant and downtrodden. So very cruel. Shame on you.

GGLC
11-08-2013, 04:35 PM
Reid Travis is next up tomorrow. 69% have him choosing Minnesota, 26% Duke, with almost all of the late action on the Gophers.

Another huge miss for the Crystal Ball. The thing is essentially junk.

Philadukie
11-08-2013, 04:46 PM
Agreed. It's getting harder and harder to listen to "insiders" now that bad predictions are getting published for posterity. There's no there there.

dukedoc
11-08-2013, 04:51 PM
Jeff Borzello seems to know what he's talking about.

Skitzle
11-08-2013, 04:52 PM
Agreed. It's getting harder and harder to listen to "insiders" now that bad predictions are getting published for posterity. There's no there there.

Kids may also be getting better at keeping the recruitments close to the vest. Adam Rowe could probably chime in here...

budwom
11-08-2013, 04:54 PM
Another huge miss for the Crystal Ball. The thing is essentially junk.

Give credit where credit is due. It's pure, unadulterated junk. One would have better
info by examining the entrails of dead porcupines.

The wondrousness of the internet has brought us a slew of "insiders" and "experts" who are clearly neither.

El_Diablo
11-08-2013, 05:00 PM
The Crystal Ball itself is not junk. Rather, the Crystal Ball shows--quite effectively--that the predictions of a lot of "experts" are junk.

airowe
11-08-2013, 05:01 PM
Kids may also be getting better at keeping the recruitments close to the vest. Adam Rowe could probably chime in here...

I'm out. Seems people have made up their minds at this point. Not one to try and change them.

GGLC
11-08-2013, 05:07 PM
I'm out. Seems people have made up their minds at this point. Not one to try and change them.

Would you characterize Dastrup, Travis, Okonoboh, Looney, etc. as successes for the Crystal Ball?

Forgive me for "making up my mind" based on objective, data-driven evidence that one would do better plugging a recruit's school choices into random.org than relying on the consensus prevailing predictions of 24/7.

But I am open to being persuaded that it has some predictive or analytical utility that I'm missing.

-jk
11-08-2013, 05:31 PM
I'm out. Seems people have made up their minds at this point. Not one to try and change them.

I think only a few have made up their minds, and mostly because we were on the receiving end of really bad predictions.

Paint me into the corner that says teens are hard to predict. (Alas, I have one, so I try. Really, I do. But it's usually for naught.)

Thanks for your contributions here.

-jk

BlueDevilBrowns
11-08-2013, 05:48 PM
I'm out. Seems people have made up their minds at this point. Not one to try and change them.


I think only a few have made up their minds, and mostly because we were on the receiving end of really bad predictions.

Paint me into the corner that says teens are hard to predict. (Alas, I have one, so I try. Really, I do. But it's usually for naught.)

Thanks for your contributions here.

-jk

Couldn't agree more jk. While it seems clear(so far) that the Crystal Ball isn't clear, please don't confuse our frustration with the CB to mean that we are being unappreciative of all of the information "insiders" like you and Watzone provide for us. Thank you so much for your contributions, much of it given free-of-charge.

As jk said, if Travis and Looney had committed to us out-of-nowhere then we'd all be so elated we wouldn't even be talking about the CB at this point.

Anyways, it's almost 7pm so screw recruiting for a couple of hours and.... LET'S GO DUKE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Philadukie
11-08-2013, 05:51 PM
I'm out. Seems people have made up their minds at this point. Not one to try and change them.

I'm open to being persuaded that insiders have real, substantive knowledge and thus higher predictive power than the average fan who follows tweets, etc. I always try to see the nuance of an issue, and I'm sure there's some here. (Not that you have to waste time on the endeavor of convincing me!) :)

The Crystal Ball though seems to be illustrating the predictive weakness of the experts and insiders however. Even those who get it right, seem to do so after changing their picks at the last minute.

airowe
11-08-2013, 05:57 PM
Would you characterize Dastrup, Travis, Okonoboh, Looney, etc. as successes for the Crystal Ball?

Forgive me for "making up my mind" based on objective, data-driven evidence that one would do better plugging a recruit's school choices into random.org than relying on the consensus prevailing predictions of 24/7.

But I am open to being persuaded that it has some predictive or analytical utility that I'm missing.

Nothing wrong with making up your mind about something. Don't take that as a shot.

I really can't answer your question as to if those recruitments were a success to the Crystal Ball without knowing what your expectations for the tool were. If you're looking at it as a collection of hypotheses by (some uninformed and some informed) people as to where a teenager will choose to attend college then yes I think you could only come to the conclusion that it was a success. Whether or not the kid affirms the hypotheses of those predictors, the tool was useful in that it showed what the majority of people thought would be the outcome of a certain scenario.
If your expectation for success was that those predicting would be right more often than not, then you can't isolate specific data points to prove an overall assertion of worth. Since it's inception, I believe the tool is in the 75%-80% accuracy range. I'm at about 75% so

If your definition of success is that the predictions be right every time, then no those specific recruitments were not. And I'd love for you to show me anotber website/email list/social media account that is 100% right.

http://247sports.com/Season/2014-Basketball/ExpertRankings

tommy
11-09-2013, 03:49 AM
Nothing wrong with making up your mind about something. Don't take that as a shot.

I really can't answer your question as to if those recruitments were a success to the Crystal Ball without knowing what your expectations for the tool were. If you're looking at it as a collection of hypotheses by (some uninformed and some informed) people as to where a teenager will choose to attend college then yes I think you could only come to the conclusion that it was a success. Whether or not the kid affirms the hypotheses of those predictors, the tool was useful in that it showed what the majority of people thought would be the outcome of a certain scenario.
If your expectation for success was that those predicting would be right more often than not, then you can't isolate specific data points to prove an overall assertion of worth. Since it's inception, I believe the tool is in the 75%-80% accuracy range. I'm at about 75% so

If your definition of success is that the predictions be right every time, then no those specific recruitments were not. And I'd love for you to show me anotber website/email list/social media account that is 100% right.

http://247sports.com/Season/2014-Basketball/ExpertRankings

I know and respect Adam a lot. I know he has sources of information that are legitimate. But I think the above is, with all due respect, kind of disingenuous. It seems to me the 247 Crystal Ball is intended to be something more than just a "collection of hypotheses." More than just a place where interested people can do one-stop shopping to see where a bunch of guys who follow this stuff are guessing this guy or that is going to college. No, and correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems to me that the whole concept of a "crystal ball" is that the people looking into that ball can see something that the rest of us cannot see. They have more information than the rest of us, more reliable information. That's why most of them are designated on the CB as "insider" or "expert." The idea seems to be to pitch them as having more information and therefore more insight than the rest of us, such that their opinions (some call them guesses) can be pitched as the opinions of people in the know, and therefore of some value.

Nobody is perfect, of course. And predicting what these kids are going to do is very difficult. But when everyone or close to everyone on the CB is wrong, say on Looney or Travis, it undercuts that pitch that I described, and is alienating for those who had bought into the pitch, because there turned out to be no value in it.

(The flip side of this argument is that the CB is free -- you don't have to join 247 to view it, so in a sense, maybe you get what you pay for.)

Also, with regards to Reid Travis, before I wrote my post last night (#207 in this thread) at 9:19 PM, PST, I checked the CB and it showed 5% for Stanford. I think there were 40 total predictions, which means 2 guys out of 40 were picking Stanford. Now when you go on the CB for Travis it shows 8 guys being credited with a correct Stanford pick. So yes, it shows that all of them but two made their selections earlier today, just hours or minutes before the announcement. So I guess somebody heard something leaked and a few guys picked up on it and changed their picks at the last minute. The two who had Stanford before this morning just changed their pick to the Cardinal yesterday. So before yesterday, nobody had them as being the choice. I'll leave it up to others to determine how useful that really is, or what value it really has. I know this has been discussed upthread some, but it sure feels like the guys' (and therefore the CB as a whole's) accuracy numbers are being inflated when they're predicting a particular school for months and months, that prediction turns out to be wrong, but hold on, they've gone and changed their longstanding pick two hours before the announcement, and they then get credit for a correct pick.

brevity
11-09-2013, 04:43 AM
You could fit what I know about the recruiting business on the head of a pin. And I only sort of care about it. That said, this thread has kept me interested because the Crystal Ball shows how the sausage is made, and this bothers people.

I still like the idea. 24/7 consolidates the know-how of a number of people who work hard to gather information that is of marketable value. The Crystal Ball feature requires these people who interpret this information and draw what I assume are logical conclusions. Like in the traditional practice of fortune telling, the crystal ball provides not truth, but the best possible projection.

Those of you who feel a little burned right now might want to revisit the beginning of this thread, where the discussion about the Crystal Ball's merits were more open because Duke was not involved. It starts to look like a fascinating battle of groupthink versus contrarianism, especially when 11th-hour whispers force the insiders to change course or let their guesses ride. The same thing has taken place for years in the entertainment field with Academy Awards prognostication. (Interesting side note: the increasing transparency in that process has likely affected the Oscar results in recent years. And it's a lot easier for an 18-year-old to experience fatigue and change his mind than 6,000 Hollywood types.)

I don't know what the recent string of incorrect forecasts means to the industry of recruiting insiders. If an insider continues to make predictions that fail to be correct, does his opinion become less regarded? Or worse, does his information become less valuable? Time will tell. We've been gifted with the unique insight of an insider on this thread, who told us exactly where one of his conclusions was coming from. Somehow I doubt that the outcome affects his ability to gather future intel within recruits' spheres of influence. He still has a job to do, and it's up to each of us to determine whether we want to get with his program.

airowe
11-09-2013, 11:05 AM
I know and respect Adam a lot. I know he has sources of information that are legitimate. But I think the above is, with all due respect, kind of disingenuous. It seems to me the 247 Crystal Ball is intended to be something more than just a "collection of hypotheses." More than just a place where interested people can do one-stop shopping to see where a bunch of guys who follow this stuff are guessing this guy or that is going to college. No, and correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems to me that the whole concept of a "crystal ball" is that the people looking into that ball can see something that the rest of us cannot see. They have more information than the rest of us, more reliable information. That's why most of them are designated on the CB as "insider" or "expert." The idea seems to be to pitch them as having more information and therefore more insight than the rest of us, such that their opinions (some call them guesses) can be pitched as the opinions of people in the know, and therefore of some value.

On the product guide for 247Sports itself, the explanation of the Crystal Ball is


With Crystal Ball, users will have more intelligence on the eventual destination of a recruit and will be able to monitor key trends throughout the recruiting process.

It took a minute to get enough information to make this worthwhile, but the graphs on player Crystal Ball pages are very informative as to where a player was expected to be leaning based on all available information to the predictors. For instance, Reid Travis was presumed to be headed to Duke for sometime, but when that feeling started to shift, you could see the Blue Devils' line on his Crystal Ball graph decrease and Minnesota's increase. (http://247sports.com/PlayerInstitution/Reid-Travis-at-De-La-Salle-2968/Predictions) In his situation, I chose Minnesota for a few reasons:


The Minnesota staff was telling people they had a slight lead over Stanford about a week before his decision.
Reid making an unofficial visit to Minnesota the week of his decision was a big indicator to me. "Follow the visits" is an old axiom in recruiting.
He was supposed to shadow two classes at Minnesota's business school the week of his decision.
Duke had not spoken to him much the week of his decision and was unclear on his destination.
Reid was telling his friends and teammates he was going to Duke and fans he was going to Minnesota.
All of those factors led me to pick the Gophers despite knowing that his parents wanted him at Stanford or Duke. Same with his brother.


I spoke with Jeff Borzello the night before the decision and he was still going to choose Minnesota until a last-minute conversation with a source of his out west who knew the Travis family and said it would be a "complete shocker" if he chose the Gophers due to the Travis family's emphasis on education. I had heard that many times as well, but it was never strong enough to make me think Stanford was a real option because I knew that Reid had serious concerns over Johnny Dawkins' future as the Cardinal coach. I likely would have made the switch to Stanford the day of, but I've instituted a ban on myself switching picks the day of and also because I was trying to preserve my lead over Borzello in the "expert" rankings :eek:. A switch to another school the day of falls in the "zero zone", where you don't get any points because it's so close to the decision time. I knew I wouldn't lose any points by getting Minnesota wrong, but the reward was greater than if I switched to Stanford. Since it was 50/50 in my mind, I decided to stick with the team that would give me more points.

freshmanjs
11-09-2013, 11:12 AM
I likely would have made the switch to Stanford the day of, but I've instituted a ban on myself switching picks the day of and also because I was trying to preserve my lead over Borzello in the "expert" rankings :eek:. A switch to another school the day of falls in the "zero zone", where you don't get any points because it's so close to the decision time. I knew I wouldn't lose any points by getting Minnesota wrong, but the reward was greater than if I switched to Stanford. Since it was 50/50 in my mind, I decided to stick with the team that would give me more points.

as mentioned earlier, this is one of my main issues with the scoring system. it creates strange incentives. people will game the system as you described and not change their pick to a different pick than the guy they want to stay ahead of.

superdave
11-12-2013, 02:23 PM
The latest action on Okafor's crystal ball page shows three pickers switching their prediction from Kansas to Duke. Also, Cliff Alexander to either Illinois or Depaul has more late action than Kansas.

budwom
11-12-2013, 02:31 PM
I'd find more accuracy in a dung beetle choosing between a Duke and a Kansas pile vs. The Hallowed Crystal Ball, but that's just me.
Since it's almost certainly a two team race between Kansas and Duke, brace yourselves for the
self congratulatory hogwash certain to spew from those self appointed gurus who happened to guess right.
High fives all around.

brevity
11-12-2013, 02:38 PM
I'd find more accuracy in a dung beetle choosing between a Duke and a Kansas pile vs. The Hallowed Crystal Ball, but that's just me.

You should totally start that website. We would cover it here with a multipage thread. Oh, and see if you can get the RoboBilas (https://twitter.com/RoboBilas) to make picks.

UrinalCake
11-12-2013, 03:37 PM
Based on the last three major recruits, the crystal ball has more value in telling us where the kid is NOT going rather than where he is. In Okonobah's case Indiana was the presumed leader, but 48 hours before his announcement we saw predictions move away from them. It turns out not many chose UNLV, but people seemed to know that Indiana was losing ground.

Same thing with Looney and Travis - in the closing days and hours we saw movement away from Duke, but not necessarily towards the correct respective schools.

Now we're seeing Kansas lose ground on both Okafor and Alexander. Will they strike out on both? I guess we'll see.

Maybe the error in each of these cases was not in the accuracy of predictions within the final week, but rather in the establishment of presumed "leaders" in the months prior.

budwom
11-12-2013, 05:01 PM
You should totally start that website. We would cover it here with a multipage thread. Oh, and see if you can get the RoboBilas (https://twitter.com/RoboBilas) to make picks.

I'd be happy to, but alas we just got a few inches of snow and I can't find any beetles at all, dung or otherwise.
Maybe we can use that octopus that picked world cup soccer matches so adroitly.

SmartDevil
11-12-2013, 05:53 PM
I can't get beyond the suspicion that some Crystal Ball contributors are writing subjectively, either not critically evaluating the facts and passing on rumors that fit their own team allegiances and disregarding other rumors--or even, individually or in unision, trying to start a stampede toward other contributors joining them in their predictions (particularly changed predictions)....in the hope that somehow that to some extent psychologically impacts a recurit's final decision about where he "belongs."

JasonEvans
11-12-2013, 08:17 PM
In an email this morning at 11:30am, I wrote to some friends--


24/7 says...

Okafor - 85% Duke, 15% Kansas - There was a run of a half dozen or so Kansas predictions a couple weeks ago but the past few predictions have been Duke including a guy from the Chicago area who had picked Kansas but flipped to Duke today.

Jones - 93% Duke, 7% Kansas - Every new prediction made in the past few weeks has been Duke including another guru who had taken Kansas but has now flipped back to Duke.

Okafor is now up to 91% Duke, 9% Kansas because 1 new picked chose Duke and 3 gurus who had chosen Kansas have flipped to Duke over the past several hours.

As for Jones, he is still at 93% Duke, 7% Kansas. No one has made a new picked or changed picks in the past 4 days on him. That is, of course, not to say that people are not getting new intel. It merely means that they have not gotten intel that changed any of their minds.

I post all of this now so we can see if there is any movement after the Duke-KU game ends, which would be kinda funny.

-Jason "seeing as the CB is 0-for-3 on the guys we have watched closely in recent weeks, I think it is due to get a couple right, don't you?" Evans

FerryFor50
11-12-2013, 08:21 PM
In an email this morning at 11:30am, I wrote to some friends--



Okafor is now up to 91% Duke, 9% Kansas because 1 new picked chose Duke and 3 gurus who had chosen Kansas have flipped to Duke over the past several hours.

As for Jones, he is still at 93% Duke, 7% Kansas. No one has made a new picked or changed picks in the past 4 days on him. That is, of course, not to say that people are not getting new intel. It merely means that they have not gotten intel that changed any of their minds.

I post all of this now so we can see if there is any movement after the Duke-KU game ends, which would be kinda funny.

-Jason "seeing as the CB is 0-for-3 on the guys we have watched closely in recent weeks, I think it is due to get a couple right, don't you?" Evans

I think he fact that they are flipping to Duke late is promising, but it could also mean they're going to UCLA. :p

BD80
11-12-2013, 08:25 PM
...

-Jason "seeing as the CB is 0-for-3 on the guys we have watched closely in recent weeks, I think it is due to get a couple right, don't you?" Evans

Even a broken watch is right twice a day.

JasonEvans
11-13-2013, 08:43 AM
Okafor is now up to 91% Duke, 9% Kansas because 1 new picked chose Duke and 3 gurus who had chosen Kansas have flipped to Duke over the past several hours.

As for Jones, he is still at 93% Duke, 7% Kansas. No one has made a new picked or changed picks in the past 4 days on him. That is, of course, not to say that people are not getting new intel. It merely means that they have not gotten intel that changed any of their minds.

I post all of this now so we can see if there is any movement after the Duke-KU game ends, which would be kinda funny.

Just prior to the game being played, Alec Kinsey of EYBL (???) became the latest to flip from Kansas to Duke. He had both kids in the KU column before last night. This puts Tyus at 94% Duke, 6% Kansas and Jahil at 92% Duke, 8% Kansas.

By the way, I know some folks are following Cliff Alexander's decision too. That seems to be trending away from KU. In the past 12 days there have been dozens of new predictions and every one of them is picking Illinois. He currently stands at 53% Illinois and 47% Kansas.

-Jason "I know it is fashionable to poo-poo the 24/7 CB, but I will be quite pleased if the numbers stay where they are until announcement time on Friday" Evans

johnb
11-13-2013, 10:27 AM
Just prior to the game being played, Alec Kinsey of EYBL (???) became the latest to flip from Kansas to Duke. He had both kids in the KU column before last night. This puts Tyus at 94% Duke, 6% Kansas and Jahil at 92% Duke, 8% Kansas.

By the way, I know some folks are following Cliff Alexander's decision too. That seems to be trending away from KU. In the past 12 days there have been dozens of new predictions and every one of them is picking Illinois. He currently stands at 53% Illinois and 47% Kansas.

-Jason "I know it is fashionable to poo-poo the 24/7 CB, but I will be quite pleased if the numbers stay where they are until announcement time on Friday" Evans

If we do sign Jones and Okafor this week, then the magic ball might still have been right in regards to whether Duke was the favorite of guys who signed elsewhere. If PT for the point and the center position are completely booked by Co-Jones and Oka-Lee, then it's going to be a fairly special player who thinks he can get time at the 2-3-4 against, potentially, Hood, Parker, Jefferson, Sulaimon, Jones, Murphy, Allen, Ojaleye (especially if k plays cook and jones together at times). We could easily have been the leader for all of those guys, but the numbers don't work well even if we have a scholarship to give. Having said that, there would be guys--I'm thinking of Turner and Winslow--who might relish joining the team because they are either so generally good that they'll force a lineup change (Turner) or such a good fit from a personality/defensive skills standpoint (Winslow) that they'd get freshman PT and stardom as a sophomore.

so our failures despite being the apparent favorite are optimistic signs.

of course, if Okajones decide to go to Baylor or Kansas, then my rationalization skills will be tested...

BD80
11-13-2013, 11:15 AM
If we do sign Jones and Okafor this week, then the magic ball might still have been right in regards to whether Duke was the favorite of guys who signed elsewhere. If PT for the point and the center position are completely booked by Co-Jones and Oka-Lee, then it's going to be a fairly special player who thinks he can get time at the 2-3-4 against, potentially, Hood, Parker, Jefferson, Sulaimon, Jones, Murphy, Allen, Ojaleye (especially if k plays cook and jones together at times). We could easily have been the leader for all of those guys, but the numbers don't work well even if we have a scholarship to give. Having said that, there would be guys--I'm thinking of Turner and Winslow--who might relish joining the team because they are either so generally good that they'll force a lineup change (Turner) or such a good fit from a personality/defensive skills standpoint (Winslow) that they'd get freshman PT and stardom as a sophomore.

so our failures despite being the apparent favorite are optimistic signs.

of course, if Okajones decide to go to Baylor or Kansas, then my rationalization skills will be tested...

Personal opinion: I find the name mash-ups to be bull. Such cutesy crap should be reserved for celebrity couples. I would consider it demeaning if it were me.

If we are lucky enough to be the choice of Tyus and Jahlil, they each deserve to be celebrated.

Man I get crabby when Duke loses.

Kedsy
11-13-2013, 11:17 AM
Personal opinion: I find the name mash-ups to be bull. Such cutesy crap should be reserved for celebrity couples. I would consider it demeaning if it were me.

If we are lucky enough to be the choice of Tyus and Jahlil, they each deserve to be celebrated.

Man I get crabby when Duke loses.

I completely agree. Although I suppose I get crabby too.

sagegrouse
11-13-2013, 11:19 AM
Personal opinion: I find the name mash-ups to be bull. Such cutesy crap should be reserved for celebrity couples. I would consider it demeaning if it were me.

If we are lucky enough to be the choice of Tyus and Jahlil, they each deserve to be celebrated.

Man I get crabby when Duke loses.

I agree with you, BD80, and I will add that it takes real cokajones to say this. -- Kindly, Sagegrouse

rotogod00
11-13-2013, 11:28 AM
Movement today on Myles Turner to Kansas. Does this mean that maybe we are, in fact, the leaders for Okafor?

Duvall
11-13-2013, 11:35 AM
Movement today on Myles Turner to Kansas. Does this mean that maybe we are, in fact, the leaders for Okafor?

No, it means that people *think* Duke is the leader for Okafor, which means nothing.

BlueDevilBrowns
11-13-2013, 11:38 AM
Movement today on Myles Turner to Kansas. Does this mean that maybe we are, in fact, the leaders for Okafor?

I think it means that perhaps Turner sees Alexander moving away from Kansas. I think Turner and Okafor could play together as Turner is much more a "4" than a "5" from what I understand.

-bdbd
11-13-2013, 01:34 PM
Of course nobody really knows, but you have to like that the general drift of forecasts is moving towards Duke at this point. We'll know for sure in two days, but FWIW I'm feeling a LITTLE more comfortable in the last few days.

NashvilleDevil
11-13-2013, 01:40 PM
I think they will be going to Kansas and will be pleasantly surprised if they choose Duke (ok ecstatic).