MBB Open Practice Comments

[CDu]

Hood and Parker are clearly the two best players on the team. And honestly, it hasn't looked close.

It's been fun to watch Sulaimon and Jones go at it against each other. Jones has being putting in a lot of work defensively so far. I'm impressed with Jones.

Cook and Hairston both look trimmer than last year. In Cook's case, he's played really well. Cook looks really poised out there. And Hairston hit an open 3!

Ojeleye looks like a football player out there. He's just built like a truck. Not the most polished player, though.

Thornton is his usual, chatty, hustling self. Still hitting corner threes.

Murphy looks a little bigger, but similarly not quite up to speed. He looks good when he has space, but in a half-court game he still looks out of place.

Plumlee looks like an 8-10mpg guy in a fill-in role. His skill level just isn't there yet. He certainly hustles, but much of that hustle winds up being unproductive.

Jefferson is still really skinny. The talk of him getting to 220-225 looks like it was overly optimistic. He's still a crafty player around the basket, but I still have concerns about his ability to defend bigger players in the paint. He's gotten backed down easily by Plumlee a couple of times.

Dawkins has been really quiet. Sulaimon and Jones have been much more involved in the action.

Parker has been a beast on defense. He's gotten a ton of help-side blocks in the paint.

Hood just looks so smooth out there. And his shooting touch is just fantastic.

[ChillinDuke]

Hood and Parker are clearly the two best players on the team. And honestly, it hasn't looked close.

It's been fun to watch Sulaimon and Jones go at it against each other. Jones has being putting in a lot of work defensively so far. I'm impressed with Jones.

Cook and Hairston both look trimmer than last year. In Cook's case, he's played really well. Cook looks really poised out there. And Hairston hit an open 3!

Ojeleye looks like a football player out there. He's just built like a truck. Not the most polished player, though.

Thornton is his usual, chatty, hustling self. Still hitting corner threes.

Murphy looks a little bigger, but similarly not quite up to speed. He looks good when he has space, but in a half-court game he still looks out of place.

Plumlee looks like an 8-10mpg guy in a fill-in role. His skill level just isn't there yet. He certainly hustles, but much of that hustle winds up being unproductive.

Jefferson is still really skinny. The talk of him getting to 220-225 looks like it was overly optimistic. He's still a crafty player around the basket, but I still have concerns about his ability to defend bigger players in the paint. He's gotten backed down easily by Plumlee a couple of times.

Dawkins has been really quiet. Sulaimon and Jones have been much more involved in the action.

Parker has been a beast on defense. He's gotten a ton of help-side blocks in the paint.

Hood just looks so smooth out there. And his shooting touch is just fantastic.

First of all, that was fun. I enjoyed a sneak peek at the team. Granted, it's only practice #2 but I'll add my two cents to CDu's comments.

Coach K's comment in yesterday's presser in which he said [paraphrasing] "Rodney, Jabari, and Amile would start if we played today. And probably Quinn." leads me to believe that he's either (a) playing a motivation game with someone, likely Rasheed, or the entire wing portfolio or (b) there is an actual battle between perhaps Rasheed and Andre for the 5th starting spot. Honestly, I thought Andre looked good. Good body language (smiled, clapping, attentive). Hitting his 3's and his throws. Strong dunk. Seemed active. Just looked mature out there. Rasheed looked his normal self as well. Not sure I liked one more than the other - may come down to defense which I would assume tips the scale to Rasheed.

Agreed, CDu. Quinn looked good and in control the entire time.

Josh had a little jumper going out to the three point line.

Disagree on Murph. He looked better to me. More confident in his moves, more in control. Scored in traffic, ball handling looked adequate (read: improved). Still didn't look like his shot was working, similar to last year. But he looked better to me. Not gonna start - but I think progress has been made.

Agreed on Marshall. Despite the injury, I thought he looked like he's made some progress. Don't get me wrong, he definitely doesn't look like an impact player still, but he looked like the game is starting to slow for him. Which is all we need at this point out of him IMO.

Amile I couldn't tell. He looked fine but not markedly better than what we saw in his time last year. He looked a little bigger, but I agree not as big as I was expecting.

Jabari I thought was forcing it at times. Shot wasn't falling. But he clearly has a skillset that can't be taught. His ball handling at 6'8", help side defensive instincts. Man. If he moves as quickly up the learning curve as many expect, watch out.

Rodney was the best player on the floor. It was clear. Very fluid.

- Chillin

[53n206]

Great defense--hard to get clear shots off.

[langdonfan]

Hood and Parker are clearly the two best players on the team. And honestly, it hasn't looked close.

Wow, that's a big statement. Did anyone else who saw the practice feel that way? Considering that Sulaimon and Cook are likely to be two of the top returning guards in the nation, that's pretty spectacular.

[Kedsy]

Wow, that's a big statement. Did anyone else who saw the practice feel that way? Considering that Sulaimon and Cook are likely to be two of the top returning guards in the nation, that's pretty spectacular.

Coach K more or less said the same thing (about Hood and Parker) at yesterday's press conference.

[CDu]

Wow, that's a big statement. Did anyone else who saw the practice feel that way? Considering that Sulaimon and Cook are likely to be two of the top returning guards in the nation, that's pretty spectacular.


Coach K more or less said the same thing (about Hood and Parker) at yesterday's press conference.

Yeah they are going to be really, really good.

Cook and Sulaimon will also be very good. But what Hood and Parker can do, with their size, just seems to be on another level.

[bluedevilsince72]

Did anyone else see that amazing block on the defensive end from Parker near the middle of the backboard and then sprints the floor for an amazing alley oop? Duke has had someone this versatile and athletic since Grant Hill. Looks like a man among boys. I dont know how anyone can match up with him. If he's hitting his jumper, he is unguardable.

[jcastranio]

Everyone had their good and bad.

First, an overall comment. The practice was very physical. Push, shove, foul, hack. Everyone had to deal with it. Once - in a half court set - Marshall must have put up four shots. He fouled on every one of them (no stoppage, though) and he got the rebound on every miss. He eventually scored.

Rodney seemed the smoothest, most confident player. Went out with cramps during the scrimmage.

Jabari is also very skilled and confident. Hit a three in the scrimmage, always around the ball. Played everything from post to point.

Josh and Tyler were solid veterans.

Rasheed and Matt were going at it. Practice is going to be tough this year. Matt's shot is not quite there, yet.

Semi is a load. Shot is a little iffy at times. He does take up space and can't easily be moved.

Marshall looked better than I expected. Doesn't seem at frantic. Had some decent post moves.

Amile is solid and confident.

Alex looked much better and more confident. Of course, 1-6 from the free throw line in the scrimmage doesn't help.

Quinn was very steady - had some great moments with Jabari.

I was actually impressed with Andre. His head was in the game, he called his team in on huddles, he was a vocal leader. Seems very confident. Didn't really look to press for his shot. One nice moment on an inbounds underneath the basket. Screened for a teammate, then ran to the corner three point line in time to receive the pass in a squared up position and swish the three. Very smooth and confident.

K had Rodney, Quinn, Sheed, Amile, Jabari, and Andre on the "white" team. Andre seemed to be the "sixth starter."

"Blue team" tied them, though. 23-23. Granted, Rodney only played a small portion of the scrimmage. Alex had seven or nine - nice strong moves to the basket.

[Newton_14]

Hood and Parker are clearly the two best players on the team. And honestly, it hasn't looked close.

It's been fun to watch Sulaimon and Jones go at it against each other. Jones has being putting in a lot of work defensively so far. I'm impressed with Jones.

Cook and Hairston both look trimmer than last year. In Cook's case, he's played really well. Cook looks really poised out there. And Hairston hit an open 3!

Ojeleye looks like a football player out there. He's just built like a truck. Not the most polished player, though.

Thornton is his usual, chatty, hustling self. Still hitting corner threes.

Murphy looks a little bigger, but similarly not quite up to speed. He looks good when he has space, but in a half-court game he still looks out of place.

Plumlee looks like an 8-10mpg guy in a fill-in role. His skill level just isn't there yet. He certainly hustles, but much of that hustle winds up being unproductive.

Jefferson is still really skinny. The talk of him getting to 220-225 looks like it was overly optimistic. He's still a crafty player around the basket, but I still have concerns about his ability to defend bigger players in the paint. He's gotten backed down easily by Plumlee a couple of times.

Dawkins has been really quiet. Sulaimon and Jones have been much more involved in the action.

Parker has been a beast on defense. He's gotten a ton of help-side blocks in the paint.

Hood just looks so smooth out there. And his shooting touch is just fantastic.

I will do a full write up tomorrow, but wanted to quickly comment on one or two things here. Having attended the full practice in person, and they went from 9am to 11:40, I had the benefit of seeing a lot more than what the online feed showed. Andre was anything but quiet. He looked really really good out there in all phases. In the various drills, specialty work, controlled scrimmages, and the final game conditioinn scrimmage, Andre logged more time with the 1st team unit than Rasheed, and in my opinion, looked better today than Rasheed did. (and I love Rasheed. Huge fan). Hood is the best all around played, Jabari is the most talented, but outside of that Andre was in my top 3 today of who looked best out there. Jabari made several "special plays", but also had several freshman like mistakes. That said it was only their second full team practice, and all of them looked rusty in terms of running the drills sharp, knowing which group to be in when they split up, etc. They will all get better at that practice over practice.

K did switch up the groups several time today, but for the most part, the top 6 in the white team group, were Hood, Andre, Jabari, Cook, Amile, Rasheed.. The 6 guys in the Blue Team group was Tyler, Josh, Murphy, Semi, MP3, Jones.

It's going to be interesting to see who wins the battle at the 2 between Andre and Rasheed in terms of who starts and who comes off the bench in a 6th man role. This team is super loaded though.

I love watching a Coach K run practice. No showtime, showboating, every minute of the 2.5 hours had a purpose. He did work in some humor near the end which the players loved.

Really great experience watching all that today.

[CDu]

I will do a full write up tomorrow, but wanted to quickly comment on one or two things here. Having attended the full practice in person, and they went from 9am to 11:40, I had the benefit of seeing a lot more than what the online feed showed. Andre was anything but quiet. He looked really really good out there in all phases. In the various drills, specialty work, controlled scrimmages, and the final game conditioinn scrimmage, Andre logged more time with the 1st team unit than Rasheed, and in my opinion, looked better today than Rasheed did. (and I love Rasheed. Huge fan). Hood is the best all around played, Jabari is the most talented, but outside of that Andre was in my top 3 today of who looked best out there. Jabari made several "special plays", but also had several freshman like mistakes. That said it was only their second full team practice, and all of them looked rusty in terms of running the drills sharp, knowing which group to be in when they split up, etc. They will all get better at that practice over practice.

K did switch up the groups several time today, but for the most part, the top 6 in the white team group, were Hood, Andre, Jabari, Cook, Amile, Rasheed.. The 6 guys in the Blue Team group was Tyler, Josh, Murphy, Semi, MP3, Jones.

It's going to be interesting to see who wins the battle at the 2 between Andre and Rasheed in terms of who starts and who comes off the bench in a 6th man role. This team is super loaded though.

I love watching a Coach K run practice. No showtime, showboating, every minute of the 2.5 hours had a purpose. He did work in some humor near the end which the players loved.

Really great experience watching all that today.

Thanks for the feedback. Glad to hear that Dawkins made more impact than could be seen online. Admittedly, the coverage was quite spotty. I was quite disappointed in GoDuke's coverage.

[DevilFalcon]

I agree Andre looked great today. I think he is going to surprise a ton of people with his expanded skills (not just a 3 point specialist anymore) and his leadership. He was talking a lot, something he did not do before.
He seems like a man now instead of a boy. Looks like the year off was the perfect thing. Very awesome to see this; I've always liked him.

[dukelifer]

I agree Andre looked great today. I think he is going to surprise a ton of people with his expanded skills (not just a 3 point specialist anymore) and his leadership. He was talking a lot, something he did not do before.
He seems like a man now instead of a boy. Looks like the year off was the perfect thing. Very awesome to see this; I've always liked him.

Andre could be a star. He is so under the radar right now. He is the most experienced player on th team and if his shot is anything like it was- watch out. Andre's issues were maintaining focus. The kid's offensive skills are elite.

[Troublemaker]

Biggest takeaway for me is it looks like Duke is going to full-court press the entire game as the default defensive gameplan.

That's a huge change that will probably be accompanied by a lengthening of the rotation. I can definitely see 9 guys playing regularly now, even in competitive contests.

[jipops]

Biggest takeaway for me is it looks like Duke is going to full-court press the entire game as the default defensive gameplan.

That's a huge change that will probably be accompanied by a lengthening of the rotation. I can definitely see 9 guys playing regularly now, even in competitive contests.

Jefferson
Parker
Hood
Sulaimon
Cook
Dawkins
Thornton
?
?

[Troublemaker]

Hmm, tough to predict. I would say Murphy and Hairston will be in the rotation as well if Duke goes 9 deep, but wouldn't be surprised to see Jones or eventually MP3 and Semi make it.

[CLW]

Granted I was only able to watch the live feed and the coverage wasn't the greatest but how did Amile look defending guys in the post? I saw Marshall go at him a few times during a drill and was pretty much able to just back him down and get whatever shot he wanted.

[Kedsy]

Biggest takeaway for me is it looks like Duke is going to full-court press the entire game as the default defensive gameplan.

That's a huge change that will probably be accompanied by a lengthening of the rotation. I can definitely see 9 guys playing regularly now, even in competitive contests.

Coach K said much the same thing in Friday's press conference -- that we're going to run and press and the rotation will be longer than usual.

I hope it's true, but I'll believe it when I see it. It might be this year's K-statement we keep repeating and wondering what happened (a la Alex Murphy will be a four year starter in 2011 and Marshall Plumlee is among the top six players in 2012).

[jipops]

Hmm, tough to predict. I would say Murphy and Hairston will be in the rotation as well if Duke goes 9 deep, but wouldn't be surprised to see Jones or eventually MP3 and Semi make it.

But you just said 'definitely' :). I personally see 8 in the rotation by January including Hairston but wouldn't be the least bit surprised if that number ends up being 7.

[roywhite]

But you just said 'definitely' :). I personally see 8 in the rotation by January including Hairston but wouldn't be the least bit surprised if that number ends up being 7.

Could be, and that's certainly the way it turns out most years. But, with an announced style of pressure defense, often full-court, and a fast pace on offense, seems more likely that we see the longer rotation, at least IMO.

[SilkyJ]

Hood and Parker are clearly the two best players on the team. And honestly, it hasn't looked close.....

Hood just looks so smooth out there. And his shooting touch is just fantastic.

Thanks for the writeup!


Coach K more or less said the same thing (about Hood and Parker) at yesterday's press conference.

I thought the other really notable thing he said at the presser was naming 4/5 starters and implying that the SG slot is basically up for grabs. If I look at that glass-half full, that means Andre has improved and is not just a 3 pt specialist. Glass-half empty is that Sheed has not progressed as much as we would hope from freshman-soph year, and the truth is probably somewhere in the middle. Hard for me to believe that Andre has made a massive leap given he took significant time away from the game entirely, and wasnt working out with the team for roughly a year (or so?). That said, Sheed's game was already pretty tight a year ago and only needed a little tweaking and polishing. In fact, his game last year was way ahead of where Andre was last year, so even if Sheed is about the same as last year, I have a hard time seeing Andre being ahead of him now. The trump card may be that he's a senior and seniors play on Ks team. The leadership and knowledge of the system is really valuable to K.

Either way, its going to be an exciting year and an exciting battle. If Andre is good enough to be a legit 6th man and play 20 minutes a game, that could be a real, real x-factor. If he's good enough to start, things could get exciting in a hurry.


Andre logged more time with the 1st team unit than Rasheed, and in my opinion, looked better today than Rasheed did. (and I love Rasheed. Huge fan).

Look forward to the full writeup! Perhaps not surprisingly, the writeups seem varied in their analysis of the Sheed/Andre battles. I'd be curious to hear more thoughts here.

[SilkyJ]

Jefferson
Parker
Hood
Sulaimon
Cook
Dawkins
Thornton
?
?

I think the next two are hairston and marshall. If I had to guess, they'll probably combine for 15-17 mpg, with only one of them playing 10-12 and the other 4-5ish. Based on the descriptions of amile, i'm guessing we'll need Marshall more than we realize. That said he needs to be ready and we know k values seniority...


But you just said 'definitely' :). I personally see 8 in the rotation by January including Hairston but wouldn't be the least bit surprised if that number ends up being 7.

Based on my description above I think it'll be a solid 8.5. One of Hairston/Marshall will have to be our 8th man...we have to sub someone in for our forwards, but i think our our starters at F are so far ahead that two of them wont truly crack the rotation.

[Bob Green]

Look forward to the full writeup! Perhaps not surprisingly, the writeups seem varied in their analysis of the Sheed/Andre battles. I'd be curious to hear more thoughts here.

I watched the practice in Cameron before attending Tailgate and the football game. It was very enjoyable. I agree with a lot of the comments in this thread, while disagreeing with a few. As for the Dawkins/Sulaimon competition for shooting guard, it will be tough for Dawkins to overcome Sulaimon's superior defense. Dawkins looked very good yesterday; active on defense, consistent with his jumper, plus he had a very nice dunk during the scrimmage while working the baseline. However, having said all that, I fully expect Sulaimon's superior defensive prowess will be the difference maker in deciding who is in the starting line-up at shooting guard. But Dawkins is going to play a lot of minutes.

[Researchc]

I was able to watch the practice live and it really pumped me up for the season. As Coach K said the other day, this is one of the most athletic team that we have had in awhile. I was shocked to find out that Rodney Hood was named captain until I watched the practice. As others have said, his game is silky smooth. The combination of Hood and Parker is going to be tough for teams to handle. I was also very impressed at the chemistry that Quinn and Jabari have together. They will be a scary duo to contain once they get some real game experience together. As much as I was impressed with Jabari's offensive skill set, I was even more impressed with his defense. If he is this good after a couple of practices, the sky is the limit for this young man. I was so excited to be able to bring my entire family to watch the practice. Afterwards, several of the players took the time to sign stuff for the remaining fans. My kid's were so excited to get both Rasheed and Jabari's autographs. Rasheed was so nice and joked with my kids. Jabari signed stuff for almost 30 minutes even after a long photo session that took place after practice. They are now my kid's favorite players. I am proud to pull for a team with such high character. I am now counting the days to Countdown to Craziness. It's going to be a fun year!

[Newton_14]

So here is my full write up. Very glad I went early as I walked in at 9am and they were already on the court doing shooting drills. All but a couple of guys. Jabari, Rasheed and I think Hood came in just a little late around 9:10.

Random thoughts category
First impressions after the first 15 -20 minutes or so and I texted some of these to Kedsy... Andre is a machine with that jumper. Most shots barely touch the net, his misses are rimout's a large percentage of the time. And I am not talking just shoot around. I am talking against defenders. He is in great physical shape, and looks quicker and bouncier. Before yesterday I would have given him no chance of starting over Rasheed, but now I believe he will challenge hard for that. But, both are going to play lots of minutes. I am comfortable enough to say count on it.

Hood is smooth as silk, bouncy, and deadly with his 3 ball. Kid is never in a hurry. When he has the ball he is studying/reading the defense, then very calmly makes the move he needs to make and either scores himself or makes a great pass. I am pretty sure he tweaked his back slipping on a wet spot which is why he sat out much of the game condition scrimmage at the end. We went with the 3 guard line up with Quinn, Andre, Rasheed paired with Jabari and Amile. That hurt them on the board too as the blue team front line was MP3, Semi, and Murphy.

Semi is a tank. A brick wall. A grown man. No one is going to root that kid out for space on the interior. Just ain't happening. He is a bit raw though, and will need time to develop. If he gets up to speed with defense (struggled in some of the defensive drilll yesteray) I can see him helping in spot minutes at the 4 spot

Josh Hairston looked really good. That jumper was falling, even from 3 ball land, and his interior defense was good. He is going to play a decent amount of minutes as a backup forward at both spots.

Marshall looked healthy and quick but rusty. Had two really good defining moments though. One was a monster dunk in heavy traffic after getting a hand off pass 6 or 7 feet from the hoop in the lane. Impressive as he was challenged hard. The other one was where he was trying to score in the post, got blocked foul twice, got it back and just bulldozed his way though the contact to score and get the And-1.

Jabari is special. The bad is he is not in as good as shape as he should be, and made poor decisions with the ball, at times, but the good is outstanding. He is one of those guys that can do things no one else can. K has devised plays to get him the ball in several different areas including top of the key, and both baselines. Very tough guy to defend. Also showed great passion and ability to block shots. Can score inside, outside, and in between. My favorite thing though: The guy is an unreal passer. Like PG good at passing. Did that 4 or 5 times with Amile or Rodney being the receivers for bunnies. He also drove the lane one time left his feet, intended to shoot but then changed his mind to pass, saw that as not happening then somehow got a weird one handed shot off and it went in. He was dead in the water as all that happened after he left his feet! But he pulled it off.

Murphy was Jekyl and Hyde. 3 or 4 bone head plays, but then 3 or 4 plays where he abused defenders including Jabari once and scorer on spectacular moves.


Other items.
Cook was solid all day, Rasheed came on strong after a slow start, and Amile has lots of good moments despite still being a string bean. They did work on straight up man to man pressure in the backcourt a lot but never worked on a full court zone press which I still believe will happen in games. No doubt in my mind actually.

This team is loaded with shooters and the offense is geared to free them up. Andre, Hood, Rasheed, Cook, Tyler are five guys that have to be respected from deep. Jabari can shoot it decently from 3 land as well, and looks like K will have Josh taking that shot when it is available. Good penetrators to score inside with Cook, Hood, Rasheed, Jabari, Murphy. Jabari and Amile can score in the post, and Josh can too if the front lines are not huge 7 footers. They run the break well with lots of guys that can finish.

Defensivley, rebounding will be a concern. It showed yesterday in the Blue White scrimmage, but pressure on the ball and wings will be ferocious.

MP3 can help some with that but right now I would project 8-10 mpg for him for now.

Just a loaded team with lots of talent. If K does not go a little deeper down the bench this year then he never will. I would project the top 9 as of right now as Quinn, Andre, Hood, Jabari, Amile, Rasheed (6 starters) with Tyler, Josh, Murpy rounding out the top 9. MP3, Semi, and Matt would round out the 12. The thing is Semi and Matt are good enough to help if called upon. Matt struggled much in one simple drill where he guarded the PG and when the PG handed off the ball and picked for the receiver, Matt was to switch back to the new ball handler, guard him over to the other side for another handoff and switch. We see K do this in games a lot. Matt kept forgetting to switch. Freshman trying to figure it out, but he looked good in several other areas including defense on the whole.

As Kedsy put it in a text to me, just an embarassment of riches. If you are not already excited about this team please get that way soon. Going to be a really good year.

Watching how K pulls it all together and implements a system utilizing the talent at hand is going to be a beautiful thing to watch!

Get your tickets to CTC and get out there to see for yourself.


That's all I got an just how I saw it yesterday. Interested to read how others saw it too.

Thanks guys! Let's get stoked and watch this team win a lot of games!

Edit: Forgot to mention: Four different guys saw time at the PG slot throughout the day in the controlled scrimmages, and the game conditions scrimmage at the end, on both the White and Blue teams. They were: Cook, Tyler, Rasheed, Matt Jones

[CALVET]

Jefferson is still really skinny. The talk of him getting to 220-225 looks like it was overly optimistic. He's still a crafty player around the basket, but I still have concerns about his ability to defend bigger players in the paint. He's gotten backed down easily by Plumlee a couple of times.


Not much discussion about Amile's performance yesterday. Was anything noted that would have K say he's among the three definite starters or is it more about deficiencies with the others competing for his spot?

[Bob Green]

Not much discussion about Amile's performance yesterday.

Jefferson was very active on the offensive glass.

[Newton_14]

Not much discussion about Amile's performance yesterday. Was anything noted that would have K say he's among the three definite starters or is it more about deficiencies with the others competing for his spot?


Jefferson was very active on the offensive glass.

Amile was solid all day on both sidds of the ball. No doubt in my mind he starts alongside Jabari as the second forward, unless K goes small at times and has a line up of Cook, Rasheed, Andre, Hood, Parker. Hood did workout with the bigs several times yesterday when they had guards/wings on one end doing drills and forwards/center on the other end.

But yeah Amile looked good. Still can't shoot a lick and still thin. He looks stronger than last year so he has put on some extra muscle which will help, but still thin. I saw that when I stood right beside him at the NC Central football game. Jabari is much bigger than Amile.

[dukebballcamper90-91]

Thanks for the post, excited to read. If Josh can play some stretch 4 that will be huge.

[ice-9]

I think the next two are hairston and marshall. If I had to guess, they'll probably combine for 15-17 mpg, with only one of them playing 10-12 and the other 4-5ish. Based on the descriptions of amile, i'm guessing we'll need Marshall more than we realize. That said he needs to be ready and we know k values seniority...

Based on my description above I think it'll be a solid 8.5. One of Hairston/Marshall will have to be our 8th man...we have to sub someone in for our forwards, but i think our our starters at F are so far ahead that two of them wont truly crack the rotation.

My guess is that Murphy will play over Marshall by default -- i.e. unless the opposing team has a big center that we are struggling to contain, Murphy will be that 9th player. My rationale is that with Murphy it's more of an interchangeable part; the team can play the same up-tempo, full court pressure, switch off of everything type of game. With Marshall, you have to play a different kind of way, a slower half court style and making that switch in the middle of an intense game can be a cognitive burden.

[uh_no]

My guess is that Murphy will play over Marshall by default -- i.e. unless the opposing team has a big center that we are struggling to contain, Murphy will be that 9th player. My rationale is that with Murphy it's more of an interchangeable part; the team can play the same up-tempo, full court pressure, switch off of everything type of game. With Marshall, you have to play a different kind of way, a slower half court style and making that switch in the middle of an intense game can be a cognitive burden.

IMhO

murphy is behind hood, parker, jefferson, and likely hairston as well (who knows with marshall and semi)

unless he is greatly improved over last year, I don't foresee him getting a lot of playing time

since this will invariably digress into a playing time thread...i'd imagine the starters will be

quinn
sulaimon
jabari
hood
jefferson

I'd imagine the next guys off the bench are
thorton
hairston
andre

knocking on the door of minutes in big games:
marshall
semi
murphy

so perhaps you can say "ninth" player and be correct, but I think he is on the outside looking into the regular rotation.

[jimsumner]

IMhO

murphy is behind hood, parker, jefferson, and likely hairston as well (who knows with marshall and semi)

unless he is greatly improved over last year, I don't foresee him getting a lot of playing time

since this will invariably digress into a playing time thread...i'd imagine the starters will be

quinn
sulaimon
jabari
hood
jefferson

I'd imagine the next guys off the bench are
thorton
hairston
andre

knocking on the door of minutes in big games:
marshall
semi
murphy

so perhaps you can say "ninth" player and be correct, but I think he is on the outside looking into the regular rotation.

K said in the Friday press conference that Duke would play more people this season than usual. Not just in blow-outs but in competitive games.

I know, I know, heard it before.

But I think the context is important. It wasn't in response to a question, it wasn't a grudging throw-away. He volunteered that information in his opening statement, as part of a broader statement about how this year's team would be different, more transition, more full-court, more athletic, less structure.

So, a wait-and-see attitude might be prudent. But this may indeed be the year when Duke takes advantage of its depth and plays nine people on a regular basis.

[BD80]

K said in the Friday press conference that Duke would play more people this season than usual. Not just in blow-outs but in competitive games.

I know, I know, heard it before. ...

From Coach K?

Last time I heard Coach K say it was the Olympic Team. I see a similarity with this year's team.

[Indoor66]

From Coach K?

Last time I heard Coach K say it was the Olympic Team. I see a similarity with this year's team.

I too see a similarity in the STRUCTURE of this team to the Olympic Team. I can easily envision many of the same roles and style of play.

[roywhite]

I too see a similarity in the STRUCTURE of this team to the Olympic Team. I can easily envision many of the same roles and style of play.

International teams could not cope with the talented, versatile forwards LeBron and Carmelo.

I'm not sure any college team can cope with a pair of forwards like Rodney Hood and Jabari Parker. They have size, scoring ability, high basketball IQ, able to rebound, pass, and defend, too. In the past several years, we've had tough matchups where teams had talented players in the 6'6" to 6'8" range; now, the burden will be on them.

[COYS]

I too see a similarity in the STRUCTURE of this team to the Olympic Team. I can easily envision many of the same roles and style of play.

The one big thing that's different about the structure of the 2008/2012 Olympic Teams and the upcoming year's Duke team is at the center spot, though. Amile is mobile and reasonably tall with long arms, but I don't think he fits the Chris Bosh role well unless he's a developed a 10-15 foot jumper that we haven't heard reports of yet. Similarly, Amile doesn't compare to Tyson Chandler or Kevin Love on the most recent Olympic squad, either. Kevin Love is a big body with a three point shot and a monster rebounder. Tyson Chandler is huge at 7-1. To go back to Duke's 2001 squad, which was also similar in construction, Carlos Boozer was a pretty dang big body for college. I actually wonder if the Boozer-less team that played UNC in the ACC final and the first four games of the tourney with Duhon, Williams, Dunleavy, Battier, and Sanders as the featured players is a better analog. I don't want to say that all those players are direct analogs, obviously, but Amile seems to me to be closer to Casey Sanders in terms of being a tall (though not as tall), mobile player (probably more mobile than Sanders) who has yet to establish himself as a particularly good defensive rebounder (Sanders, despite his height, was never really that great). Amile has way more potential on offense, though, where he's already shown a knack for scoring around the basket and grabbing offensive boards. He also has a little more defensive versatility.

Don't get me wrong, I think Amile and Duke can be championship-good this year. I think there will be a lot of similarities between the strategy of Duke and the Olympic team (use length and athleticism to force turnovers on defense, take advantage of the versatility of the personnel by switching screens, full court press, half-court mega-pressure, etc.). However, the Olympic team played it's best ball with Kevin Love pulling down rebounds and hitting shots and with Bosh doing the same. Unless Marshall makes huge strides and plays lots of minutes, Duke is not going to have that one guy who can be a big body and grab some boards the way Chandler, Love, Howard or Boozer did for their respective teams. Similarly, they're not going to have an almost seven footer who can hit 15 foot jumpers like Bosh in '08. What they will have, however, is a guy with a lot of potential, length, and versatility, who will hopefully do enough in the rebound department to prevent that area from becoming a liability for the team.

[jipops]

I too see a similarity in the STRUCTURE of this team to the Olympic Team. I can easily envision many of the same roles and style of play.

One big dis-similarity to me is there is no Kevin Love role/type guy on this team. And he was pivotal to the success in London by being physical enough to defend and rebound in the paint and spread the floor with his reliable perimeter shooting. It's hard to see that type of guy existing on this Duke team unless Josh Hairston is now able to reliably knock it down from 15. Amile has a lot going for him but physical strength and perimeter scoring are not his attributes right now.

[uh_no]

K said in the Friday press conference that Duke would play more people this season than usual. Not just in blow-outs but in competitive games.

I know, I know, heard it before.

But I think the context is important. It wasn't in response to a question, it wasn't a grudging throw-away. He volunteered that information in his opening statement, as part of a broader statement about how this year's team would be different, more transition, more full-court, more athletic, less structure.

So, a wait-and-see attitude might be prudent. But this may indeed be the year when Duke takes advantage of its depth and plays nine people on a regular basis.

It might happen, and thanks for the context. I think those last few guys really need to bring something different to the table that the guys above them can't bring. Marshall can certainly do that with his size, and I haven't seen enough of the other two i listed to say for sure....but K always seems to talk about the team needing to gel, and if alex appears to be a lesser version of hood, or marshall doesn't use his height to his advantage, I have trouble seeing them getting minutes against really good teams, and as an extension against teams during most of the year

You're right, though, this year more than any in a while, we have a lot of unknowns...quinn, thornton and sulaimon are pretty much the only guys we're going to have a good grasp on....other than that, we have a rebuilt jefferson, and a bunch of guys who have limited if any college run.

[BD80]

International teams could not cope with the talented, versatile forwards LeBron and Carmelo.

I'm not sure any college team can cope with a pair of forwards like Rodney Hood and Jabari Parker. They have size, scoring ability, high basketball IQ, able to rebound, pass, and defend, too. In the past several years, we've had tough matchups where teams had talented players in the 6'6" to 6'8" range; now, the burden will be on them.

And Justise comes to visit within the month, seeing a team built around these two who are expected to be NBA bound next year - he has a similar skill set (maybe not the level of shooter, but the rest of the package).

[Cameron]

IMhO

murphy is behind hood, parker, jefferson, and likely hairston as well (who knows with marshall and semi)

unless he is greatly improved over last year, I don't foresee him getting a lot of playing time

since this will invariably digress into a playing time thread...i'd imagine the starters will be

quinn
sulaimon
jabari
hood
jefferson

I'd imagine the next guys off the bench are
thorton
hairston
andre

knocking on the door of minutes in big games:
marshall
semi
murphy

so perhaps you can say "ninth" player and be correct, but I think he is on the outside looking into the regular rotation.

If Matt Jones is as good as many say he is, he'll notch significant minutes and play a major role on this team, probably ranking right there with Andre and Tyler for first minutes off the bench (that is to say if Andre doesn't start at some point). If there is anything Coach K loves as much as good, hard-nosed defense, it's a black J.J. Redick. While we've yet to see what Matt will bring to the table at Duke, the kid's game has been compared to Trajan Langdon and Ray Allen. If he's just a fraction as good as either, we could very well have another superstar shooter on our hands with a chance to join the pantheon of Blue Devil greats from the outside.

Matt has the size, quickness and athleticism to make a big splash this season and earn big minutes, much the same way that Andre did as a freshman on a very talented national championship squad. And with the slashing ability of Quinn, Rasheed and Rodney on the perimeter, there might not be a better one-two long-range shooting punch in the country this year than Matt and Andre. These guys will have one job to do on the offensive end of the floor this year, and, lucky for us, it's the job they do best.

Many here greatly underestimated the contribution that Rasheed would have on our team last year, especially before practice began. I think many are doing the same with Matt.

[ChillinDuke]

If Matt Jones is as good as many say he is, he'll notch significant minutes and play a major role on this team, probably ranking right there with Andre and Tyler for first minutes off the bench (that is to say if Andre doesn't start at some point). If there is anything Coach K loves as much as good, hard-nosed defense, it's a black J.J. Redick. While we've yet to see what Matt will bring to the table at Duke, the kid's game has been compared to Trajan Langdon and Ray Allen. If he's just a fraction as good as either, we could very well have another superstar shooter on our hands with a chance to join the pantheon of Blue Devil greats from the outside.

Matt has the size, quickness and athleticism to make a big splash this season and earn big minutes, much the same way that Andre did as a freshman on a very talented national championship squad. And with the slashing ability of Quinn, Rasheed and Rodney on the perimeter, there might not be a better one-two long-range shooting punch in the country this year than Matt and Andre. These guys will have one job to do on the offensive end of the floor this year, and, lucky for us, it's the job they know best.

Basing this post off of the one public practice that we've been exposed to and reading between the lines in every interview I've read/watched, Matt Jones is not likely to notch significant minutes. Just don't see it. Andre was head and shoulders above him - in basically every facet of the game that I saw - and Andre isn't even expected to start by most around here. Further, many teammates have been touting Andre's shooting. The dead-eye shooter role is likely locked up for this season, especially when you throw in three extra years of experience.

- Chillin

[wilko]

The dead-eye shooter role is likely locked up for this season, especially when you throw in three extra years of experience.

- Chillin

Yer prolly spot on - but as we have seen in the very recent past; injuries CAN and DO happen. So there's no reason for young Mr Jones to slack off. On the off chance he is pressed into duty - his role is to be ready when his # is called.

[Cameron]

Basing this post off of the one public practice that we've been exposed to and reading between the lines in every interview I've read/watched, Matt Jones is not likely to notch significant minutes. Just don't see it. Andre was head and shoulders above him - in basically every facet of the game that I saw - and Andre isn't even expected to start by most around here. Further, many teammates have been touting Andre's shooting. The dead-eye shooter role is likely locked up for this season, especially when you throw in three extra years of experience.

- Chillin

You very well could be right, but I wouldn't put a lot of stock in one open practice. He is just a freshman after all. But, if the coaching staff has come out and directly stated as much, as you seem to indicate, then that is obviously different. I must have missed those comments. I still think that with his overall height and athleticism and ability to shoot, he'll eventually find a role with this team.

[jimsumner]

You very well could be right, but I wouldn't put a lot of stock in one open practice. He is just a freshman after all. But, if the coaching staff has come out and directly stated as much, as you seem to indicate, then that is obviously different. I must have missed those comments. I still think that with his overall height and athleticism and ability to shoot, he'll eventually find a role with this team.

I haven't heard any of the coaches explicitly preclude Jones from the likely rotation. And Duke thinks he's going to be really good down the line.

But there are only so many minutes to go around. With Rodney Hood, Rasheed Sulaimon, Andre Dawkins and senior co-captain Tyler Thornton competing with him for minutes at the wing, it's not clear to me how he's going to find much meaningful playing time this season.

Then again, at least two and perhaps all four of those mentioned above will be gone after this season.

And before anyone asks, I think Murphy and Ojeleye will be post players this season.

[ChillinDuke]

You very well could be right, but I wouldn't put a lot of stock in one open practice. He is just a freshman after all. But, if the coaching staff has come out and directly stated as much, as you seem to indicate, then that is obviously different. I must have missed those comments. I still think that with his overall height and athleticism and ability to shoot, he'll eventually find a role with this team.

Jim said it best.

I direct you to this Rodney Hood interview after the practice this weekend in which he specifically names Andre as the shooter of note:
http://duke.247sports.com/Article/Rodney-Hood-meets-with-the-media-after-Dukes-first-practice-151846

It is this and other interviews that I am sort of piecing together to get a full picture of Andre as the incumbent in this race. To be sure, that's just my take. And I don't want Matt (or any Duke player) ever slacking off for any reason. You come here to play for us - we all want you to play and play well, whenever your time has come.

- Chillin

[DeBlueDevil]

Courtesy of Duke Blue Planet...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Komyzb6_XWI&feature=c4-overview&list=UU9KCzNMmf0IRcEIsFDgt2bg

This is going to be one of my favorite Duke teams to watch. I think Quinn is in for a great season.

[Kedsy]

You're right, though, this year more than any in a while, we have a lot of unknowns...quinn, thornton and sulaimon are pretty much the only guys we're going to have a good grasp on....other than that, we have a rebuilt jefferson, and a bunch of guys who have limited if any college run.

Some people seem to be forgetting Andre. Sure, he took a year off, and I agree we don't know exactly what he'll bring this year, but he has a LOT more than "limited if any college run."


While we've yet to see what Matt will bring to the table at Duke, the kid's game has been compared to Trajan Langdon and Ray Allen.

While it's possible Matt can break into the rotation if we go 9 deep, I doubt he'll be in our top 8. And while it's true recruiting rankings aren't the final word on such things, I don't think it's right to expect the #34 recruit (Matt's rank in the RSCI) to immediately live up to top ten guys like Trajan and Ray Allen. Or even #12 Rasheed. Guys in the 30s generally take time to develop.

It's also not reasonable to expect Matt to have a freshman year like Andre, when Andre joined a team with only three guards/wings on the roster, while this year's team has a ton of them, all presumably ahead of Matt in the pecking order.


The one big thing that's different about the structure of the 2008/2012 Olympic Teams and the upcoming year's Duke team is at the center spot, though. Amile is mobile and reasonably tall with long arms, but I don't think he fits the Chris Bosh role well unless he's a developed a 10-15 foot jumper that we haven't heard reports of yet.

Questioning whether Amile can rebound enough for us to use the Olympic model makes a lot of sense. On the other hand, I'm not sure I care whether he shows Bosh's or Love's outside shooting touch. Offense is not going to be a problem for this year's Duke team. All Amile has to do on O is hang around the basket, receive passes from double-teamed Jabari/Rodney/Quinn/Rasheed, and make open layups because nobody's guarding him.

[SilkyJ]

My guess is that Murphy will play over Marshall by default -- i.e. unless the opposing team has a big center that we are struggling to contain, Murphy will be that 9th player. My rationale is that with Murphy it's more of an interchangeable part; the team can play the same up-tempo, full court pressure, switch off of everything type of game. With Marshall, you have to play a different kind of way, a slower half court style and making that switch in the middle of an intense game can be a cognitive burden.

Wouldn't surprise me if you were right. As Jim points out, Murphy will be a post player this year for sure and is more of a direct replacement for any of our starting bigs. That said, mp3 provides something unique whereas Murphy doesn't bring anything terribly unique over those he would sub for.


Basing this post off of the one public practice that we've been exposed to and reading between the lines in every interview I've read/watched, Matt Jones is not likely to notch significant minutes. Just don't see it. Andre was head and shoulders above him - in basically every facet of the game that I saw - and Andre isn't even expected to start by most around here. Further, many teammates have been touting Andre's shooting. The dead-eye shooter role is likely locked up for this season, especially when you throw in three extra years of experience.

- Chillin

Agreed. I don't see us playing more than 4 guards. (Quinn, Tyler, sheed, Andre)



Questioning whether Amile can rebound enough for us to use the Olympic model makes a lot of sense. On the other hand, I'm not sure I care whether he shows Bosh's or Love's outside shooting touch. Offense is not going to be a problem for this year's Duke team. All Amile has to do on O is hang around the basket, receive passes from double-teamed Jabari/Rodney/Quinn/Rasheed, and make open layups because nobody's guarding him.

Agreed. Defense, rebounding are his primary duties and then comes clean up duty on offense. Amile is a great complement for Rodney and Jabari (and everyone else) bc he doesnt need touches to be effective. I think we saw a lot of that last year.

[subzero02]

International teams could not cope with the talented, versatile forwards LeBron and Carmelo.

I'm not sure any college team can cope with a pair of forwards like Rodney Hood and Jabari Parker. They have size, scoring ability, high basketball IQ, able to rebound, pass, and defend, too. In the past several years, we've had tough matchups where teams had talented players in the 6'6" to 6'8" range; now, the burden will be on them.

While other teams had worlds of trouble
With Lebron and Melo, I recall us having a significant problem guarding Pau Gasol....

[roywhite]

While other teams had worlds of trouble
With Lebron and Melo, I recall us having a significant problem guarding Pau Gasol....

That's a good point; we could be vulnerable to a legitimate big man with a good inside game.

How many of them are there in college basketball these days? Not many.
On the preseason CBS All-America teams, we see Julius Randle (1st team) and Willie Cauley-Stein (3rd team) from Kentucky; Mitch McGary (2nd team) from Michigan; and Adreian Payne, a 3rd team selection from Michigan State, who wasn't very impressive in our Elite Eight game last season. In the conference, UNC has size, but there aren't any great inside players that come to mind.

So we could have problems with a handful of teams of that nature. And we've got MP3 as a possible answer, who can at the very least provide bulk and give up some fouls.

Getting waaay ahead of things, it's hard to figure out just which teams can give this Duke team a hard time. Not many IMO.

[Duvall]

That's a good point; we could be vulnerable to a legitimate big man with a good inside game.

How many of them are there in college basketball these days? Not many.
On the preseason CBS All-America teams, we see Julius Randle (1st team) and Willie Cauley-Stein (3rd team) from Kentucky; Mitch McGary (2nd team) from Michigan; and Adreian Payne, a 3rd team selection from Michigan State, who wasn't very impressive in our Elite Eight game last season.

Though to be fair, Payne was being guarded by Mason and Kelly in that game.

[BD80]

While other teams had worlds of trouble
With Lebron and Melo, I recall us having a significant problem guarding Pau Gasol....

Spain also had good guards that could create some space from their defenders and get the ball into Gasol in scoring position. Not many teams in college have that kind of combination.

[Li_Duke]

Spain also had good guards that could create some space from their defenders and get the ball into Gasol in scoring position. Not many teams in college have that kind of combination.

Spain had 2 Gasols to give USA trouble. I think we could deal with one ultra-skilled bigs much the same way that our small teams in the past dealt with the Tim Duncans of the world. Not too many teams have two.

[subzero02]

That's a good point; we could be vulnerable to a legitimate big man with a good inside game.

How many of them are there in college basketball these days? Not many.
On the preseason CBS All-America teams, we see Julius Randle (1st team) and Willie Cauley-Stein (3rd team) from Kentucky; Mitch McGary (2nd team) from Michigan; and Adreian Payne, a 3rd team selection from Michigan State, who wasn't very impressive in our Elite Eight game last season. In the conference, UNC has size, but there aren't any great inside players that come to mind.

So we could have problems with a handful of teams of that nature. And we've got MP3 as a possible answer, who can at the very least provide bulk and give up some fouls.

Getting waaay ahead of things, it's hard to figure out just which teams can give this Duke team a hard time. Not many IMO.

We matched up with Payne and the Spartans in the sweet 16... McGary, Cauley-Stein and obviously Randle would concern me. I know we are getting ahead of ourselves but Calhoun says he started scheming for our 98-99 uber team back in the fall.

[timmy c]

Spain had 2 Gasols to give USA trouble. I think we could deal with one ultra-skilled bigs much the same way that our small teams in the past dealt with the Tim Duncans of the world. Not too many teams have two.

Speaking of two.... Having two 6-8 forwards who can shoot from range is so exciting! How will opposing coaches game plan for that? Who do you cheat off of when you give help? Teams had trouble stopping Singler, imagine trying to find two players on the opposing roster who can handle Hood and Parker.

[Billy Dat]

I didn't get to watch the practice, but I just watched K's press conference.

RE: Jabari and Rodney
K said that playing time will basically be determined by how well an individual figures out how to play with these two, or, to use his term, "blends" with these two. Per K, each will command the equivalent of 1.5 men on the other team playing defense, which means that 3 guys will have 0.5 men on them, or less. Whoever is being guarded by less than a man needs to be able to capitalize. Maybe Rasheed needs to get with the "blending" program a little more? (purely my unsubstantiated speculation). K also pointed out that despite having a solid senior season, Jabari was coming off a huge inactive stretch with his injury and, as a result, the world likely didn't see the fully-realized Jabari. It sounds like K is counting on seeing the real deal this year.

RE: Andre
I was one of those questioning Andre's role as we debated the team this offseason, but K's comments certainly indicate that Andre has a great season away from the team and is firmly in the rotation mix. He praised his accountability and maturity, and mentioned that his jump shot hasn't gone anywhere, either.

RE: Rotation
He did indeed say that the team would go deeper (we'll see) and that there weren't one-on-one positional battles going on (ala Rasheed vs Andre). As many have said, he's basically saying that right now he's looking for someone to start alongside Rodney, Jabari, Amile and Quinn (he praised both Cook and Jefferson's offseasons). That being said, many have pointed out that Rasheed started and played with the White team for most of the time. K also praised Hairston's weight loss (15 pounds), Marshall's comeback from injury, and said Murphy also had a solid offseason.

RE: Quinn
K gave Quinn a lot of praise, seeming to indicate that he's going to have to spend most of his time setting up other guys (using the Chris Paul on Olympic team vs Chris Paul on Clippers analogy) and said he's going to have to pressure the heck out of the ball on defense.

RE: Defense
I know we are worried about defense and rebounding with Amile in the middle, but we are going to have team schemes and try and really be more disruptive than our athleticism has allowed for the past few years. For opposing bigs to really hurt us, they are going to have to have an arsenal of low post moves and excellent re-directing skills. But, more than that, a team will have to have great balance so that the great big can make us pay by hitting capable outside shooters. Michigan with McGarry will be a good test, but I don't worry about us getting repeatedly beaten because we're playing a team with a great big.

RE: Numbers
K took a question about Jabari wearing #1 to soapbox a bit about college ball's archaic rules about jersey number options being limited by the single digits on each hand. In his own unique way, he basically called the rule idiotic ("you'd think with the technology we have today...")

RE: Beyonce
K closed by making sure that everyone knew that while he might love Beyonce, his favorite singer remains Grant Hill's bride, Tamia.

[Kedsy]

For opposing bigs to really hurt us, they are going to have to have an arsenal of low post moves and excellent re-directing skills.

The opposing big would also have to be able to get the ball. If they can't, the only way they can hurt us is on rebound putbacks. With Rodney's length and Rasheed's quickness and long arms, if Quinn/Tyler can apply decent ball pressure on the opposing PG, it won't be trivial to get the ball inside against Duke this season. If Jabari is as good at weak side help as some are saying, it'll be even more difficult.

Moreover, opposing bigs can only hurt us in regular halfcourt sets. If we apply pressure and speed the other team up, it'll be that much more difficult for the opposing center to dominate the game.

Finally, if the big goes outside to shoot, they may hit a few but in my opinion they'd be playing into our hands.

[uh_no]

Some people seem to be forgetting Andre. Sure, he took a year off, and I agree we don't know exactly what he'll bring this year, but he has a LOT more than "limited if any college run."



yeah, accidentally left him off my list of exceptions, he is in the same boat as jefferson, in that he has game experience (and considerable at that) but we don't know if he is going to bring the same things he brought last time he played. With amile, it's due to muscle, with andre, it's due to taking a year off.

the guys i was referring to were jabari, hood, semi, marshall, alex, matt

either way, that amounts to 8 guys that could (and in some cases are expected to) get big play, but are still to some degree question marks. We all expect jabari and hood to be excellent...but until they step on that floor in a big game, we don't *really* know what we are going to get

[jcastranio]

I can say this about what I saw on Saturday ...

Matt Jones can play. He looked confident, mixed it up with Quinn and Sheed -- he belongs. I would say that the question isn't whether the freshman Matt Jones can compete and play - just how many minutes he can get. He is bigger than you might imagine, he isn't afraid to be physical, and he seems to fit in well with everyone.

I was pleased with what I saw. With Quinn, Tyler, Sheed, and Andre -- minutes are at a premium.

[Troublemaker]

I can believe that Dawkins is a legitimate threat to start.

Putting Dawkins as the starter at the 2 and making Sheed a 6th man off the bench is actually a pretty standard NBA tactic for NBA teams that go 9-deep, go to the bench often, and have consistent substitution patterns to cover the full 48 minutes that they have to play 82 times a year.

Basically, if Duke were an NBA team that went 9-deep, Sheed would come off the bench with Thornton, Murphy, and Hairston. They would enter the game as a quartet and join one of the 2 superstars, Hood or Jabari. For the sake of this example, let's say Hood. So, in that lineup, Sheed helps share creation duties with Hood so Rodney doesn't have to do it alone while Thornton, Murphy, and Hairston play off of those two. That's the value of breaking up your creators; when some rest, others can come off the bench to help shoulder the creation burden. Classic example is Ginobili (not that Sheed is anywhere near that good at this point).

In the starting lineup, you already have Jabari, Hood, and Quinn as creators. Do you need a 4th guy who can get his own shot? Or would you create more synergy if the 4th guy were a dead-eye shooter that opponents have to cover out to 25 ft, spreading the court for the three creators to do their thing? There's the defense argument, of course. But since Quinn will be on the ball (and I was very pleased to hear Coach K say he's improved his on-ball defense and is now "outstanding" at it), Sheed will be off the ball and the defensive gap between Sheed and Andre is reduced dramatically when you're talking about off-ball defense.

So that's why I think Sheed may be the favorite to start, but Andre has a real shot at it, too.

[Ichabod Drain]

The opposing big would also have to be able to get the ball. If they can't, the only way they can hurt us is on rebound putbacks. With Rodney's length and Rasheed's quickness and long arms, if Quinn/Tyler can apply decent ball pressure on the opposing PG, it won't be trivial to get the ball inside against Duke this season. If Jabari is as good at weak side help as some are saying, it'll be even more difficult.

Moreover, opposing bigs can only hurt us in regular halfcourt sets. If we apply pressure and speed the other team up, it'll be that much more difficult for the opposing center to dominate the game.

Finally, if the big goes outside to shoot, they may hit a few but in my opinion they'd be playing into our hands.

I think it's more difficult to deny a post player the ball than you're making it out to be. Last year when Mason really wanted the ball we usually found a way to get it to him. It may have took some extra work, but we made it happen.

I agree about speeding teams up to help take their bigs out of the game, but there's plenty of 6'10"+ guys out there who can still hurt you in transition.

[Kedsy]

I think it's more difficult to deny a post player the ball than you're making it out to be. Last year when Mason really wanted the ball we usually found a way to get it to him. It may have took some extra work, but we made it happen.

I agree about speeding teams up to help take their bigs out of the game, but there's plenty of 6'10"+ guys out there who can still hurt you in transition.

Any big guy who could hurt us in transition would hurt us no matter who defended the 5 for us.

As far as denying the ball to the post, I'm not talking about denying anyone completely. I'm talking about limiting the opposing big's touches to the point where he doesn't dominate the game. If the opposing center has similar offensive output against our D than he would if we had a solid 7-footer manning the post, then we've essentially neutralized him.

Put another way, having Amile defend the opposing center is only a problem if that center is likely to have a substantially better performance than he would against a traditionally sized center like Mason. If our overall D can avoid that, then it's not a problem.

[Newton_14]

I didn't get to watch the practice, but I just watched K's press conference.


RE: Andre
I was one of those questioning Andre's role as we debated the team this offseason, but K's comments certainly indicate that Andre has a great season away from the team and is firmly in the rotation mix. He praised his accountability and maturity, and mentioned that his jump shot hasn't gone anywhere, either.

RE: Rotation
He did indeed say that the team would go deeper (we'll see) and that there weren't one-on-one positional battles going on (ala Rasheed vs Andre). As many have said, he's basically saying that right now he's looking for someone to start alongside Rodney, Jabari, Amile and Quinn (he praised both Cook and Jefferson's offseasons). That being said, many have pointed out that Rasheed started and played with the White team for most of the time. K also praised Hairston's weight loss (15 pounds), Marshall's comeback from injury, and said Murphy also had a solid offseason.


RE: Beyonce

I respect the hell out of your posting Billy, but again the part I bolded just isn't fact. From 9:15am to around 9:45am or so, they were split into groups of 6 (Blue and WHite) on different ends of the court. During that time, Rasheed was with the Blue team, Andre with the White team. They then consolidated to everyone on the same halfcourt, and worked on a play called "Drag" with the 5 starters in white, and the second team in blue. Andre was the starter at the 2 when they started that drill, with Quinn, Hood, Jabari, and Amile. K then started switching guys and Rasheed came in for Andre at the 2. Later on they switched by into groups of 6 again and this time the 6 guys in White were Quinn, Andre, Hood, Jabari, Amile, Rasheed. They switched around a lot after that and it hard to remember the exact aligments, but on at least one occasion when they were working on defensive drills in groups of 6 on opposite ends of the floor, Rasheed was with the blue group with Matt and Tyler, and Murphy was on the other end with the white group with Quinn, and Andre. Over the course of the full 2.5 hours of the practice, Andre logged more time with the starters in the top 5, than did Rasheed. That could certainly change over the next 6 weeks or even prior to CTC, but I am just reporting what I saw Saturday in practice number 2.

The other thing I noticed is Murphy worked out with the wings about 95% of the time. I do not recall him working with the bigs in any of the drills.

@Cameron- I also respect the hell out of you and your posting, but I saw no semblence of Ray Allen and Trajan in Matt Jones. In fact I made a mental note that his release point was low and he did not have good rotation on his jumper. Andre Dawkins is the best shooter on this team by a mile, and in my opinion Hood is a solid second best. I hate saying negative things about any Duke player and I do think Matt is going to be a solid 4 year player that improves year over year, so not meaning in any way to bash the kid. He is talented. Lots of good qualities and skills with this kid. Tenacious defender. Has to learn the defensive rotations though. But hey, yesterday was only the second formal practice, so plenty of time to learn it before games start. He just has too many known commodities in front of him with better talent and more experience. Unless something drastically changes I am still projecting spot minutes for him this season.

If K sticks to his words of going deeper this year, then Matt may sneak in a few more minutes than in a normal K year where he locks in on 7/8 guys. This team is loaded but I would have to put the top 12 in this order: Hood, Jabari, Quinn, Amile, Andre, Rasheed, Tyler, Josh, Murphy, Semi, Matt, MP3. The thing is, any one of them could come into a game and make a positive play against just about any opponent. None of them are what I would call "Weak Players", but K can't and won't play 12 guys on a regular basis.

I have no idea how he is going to work this out as it is just very different than what we are used to seeing in a Duke team. 1 through 12 it is the most talented team that maybe K has ever had. Now he has had team with better starting 5's, but dang if I recall a roster where players 6 through 12 were this good. It's mind boggling.

[Billy Dat]

I respect the hell out of your posting Billy, but again the part I bolded just isn't fact. From 9:15am to around 9:45am or so, they were split into groups of 6 (Blue and WHite) on different ends of the court. During that time, Rasheed was with the Blue team, Andre with the White team. They then consolidated to everyone on the same halfcourt, and worked on a play called "Drag" with the 5 starters in white, and the second team in blue. Andre was the starter at the 2 when they started that drill, with Quinn, Hood, Jabari, and Amile. K then started switching guys and Rasheed came in for Andre at the 2. Later on they switched by into groups of 6 again and this time the 6 guys in White were Quinn, Andre, Hood, Jabari, Amile, Rasheed. They switched around a lot after that and it hard to remember the exact aligments, but on at least one occasion when they were working on defensive drills in groups of 6 on opposite ends of the floor, Rasheed was with the blue group with Matt and Tyler, and Murphy was on the other end with the white group with Quinn, and Andre. Over the course of the full 2.5 hours of the practice, Andre logged more time with the starters in the top 5, than did Rasheed. That could certainly change over the next 6 weeks or even prior to CTC, but I am just reporting what I saw Saturday in practice number 2.

It's all love, Newton_14. I believe what you saw with your own eyes, and I did not watch the practice. I did read somewhere that Rasheed had played with the starters most of the time, and was too lazy when I posted to go back and find out exactly where. But, wanting to prove I wasn't in a post-Sarah P. Duke Gardens-hallucination, I went back and found the source:

"Observations from Duke basketball’s open practice" from the sharp and comely Laura Keeley
http://www.newsobserver.com/2013/09/28/3236543/observations-from-duke-basketballs.html#storylink=cpy

"At this point, it appears like Andre Dawkins will be the sixth man, as he was with the white team even before Hood left the scrimmage. In Hood’s absence, Dawkins played extensively, along with the other presumed starters, who were in white: Quinn Cook, Jabari Parker, Amile Jefferson and Rasheed Sulaimon. And even though Krzyzewski didn’t publicly name Sulaimon a starter, as he did with Duke’s other four, Sulaimon was with the first team whenever it was assembled. He, like the rest of his teammates, ran up and down the floor and flashed his length with a few blocked shots."

[CALVET]

Any big guy who could hurt us in transition would hurt us no matter who defended the 5 for us.

As far as denying the ball to the post, I'm not talking about denying anyone completely. I'm talking about limiting the opposing big's touches to the point where he doesn't dominate the game. If the opposing center has similar offensive output against our D than he would if we had a solid 7-footer manning the post, then we've essentially neutralized him.

Put another way, having Amile defend the opposing center is only a problem if that center is likely to have a substantially better performance than he would against a traditionally sized center like Mason. If our overall D can avoid that, then it's not a problem.

Teams that are 7 ft good with a beast at power forward like Arizona, Kentucky, and Kansas scare me if the rotation down low is mostly Amile, Jabari, and Josh... especially when I read how easy it was for Marshall to back down Amile on Saturday.

[Kedsy]

Teams that are 7 ft good with a beast at power forward like Arizona, Kentucky, and Kansas scare me if the rotation down low is mostly Amile, Jabari, and Josh... especially when I read how easy it was for Marshall to back down Amile on Saturday.

And your concern is legit until we see our D play against such teams. The thing is, all the teams you mention should (I believe) get most of their scoring from their perimeter, rather than their bigs, so it remains to be seen if this issue is a real one or simply a theoretical one.

The good news is by the end of November, we have a pretty good chance of seeing how we play against both Arizona and Kansas. UK will have to wait until the NCAAT.

[Ichabod Drain]

Any big guy who could hurt us in transition would hurt us no matter who defended the 5 for us.

As far as denying the ball to the post, I'm not talking about denying anyone completely. I'm talking about limiting the opposing big's touches to the point where he doesn't dominate the game. If the opposing center has similar offensive output against our D than he would if we had a solid 7-footer manning the post, then we've essentially neutralized him.

Put another way, having Amile defend the opposing center is only a problem if that center is likely to have a substantially better performance than he would against a traditionally sized center like Mason. If our overall D can avoid that, then it's not a problem.

I know you weren't talking about denying him completely but on any given possession it takes a tremendous amount of effort to deny one person the ball (Especially when that person has 3-4 inches and 30-40 pounds over anyone on our team). And that amount of effort could easily result in open looks/easy baskets for other members of the opposing team. Essentially neutralizing the neutralization of the big man.

I'm not saying it couldn't work, but there's a give and take here. For everything we want to take away from the opposing team, we will have to give up some ground in other areas.

[Philadukie]

IMhO

murphy is behind hood, parker, jefferson, and likely hairston as well (who knows with marshall and semi)

unless he is greatly improved over last year, I don't foresee him getting a lot of playing time

since this will invariably digress into a playing time thread...i'd imagine the starters will be

quinn
sulaimon
jabari
hood
jefferson

I'd imagine the next guys off the bench are
thorton
hairston
andre

knocking on the door of minutes in big games:
marshall
semi
murphy

so perhaps you can say "ninth" player and be correct, but I think he is on the outside looking into the regular rotation.

I think this is correct. Based on all I've seen and read so far, I think we'll play an eight "plus one" rotation. The starters will be Quinn, Sheed, Hood, Parker, and Amile, with Ty and Dre rotating in at the 1-3 (though Dre could start some games depending on how Sheed is playing), and Hairston rotating in at the 4 and 5.

The "plus one" will depend on game situations and who is practicing the best, although my hunch is that it will usually be Murphy at the 4 and 5 for, at most, 10 minutes a game. I don't see Plumlee, Semi, and Matt getting many minutes in big non-conference games and ACC play.

On another, only semi-related topic (mods please forgive): although everyone knows he is one of the two best players on the team, I think folks are also starting to see that Jabari is a complete player who will impact the game in many ways - rebounding, defense, passing etc., and not just (or even primarily) in scoring. He is not the type of player, a la Rose, Beasley, Durant, to take over and dominate a game. He will have a complete - and sometimes even quiet -- impact. You'll wonder at times how he ended up with 15 points and 8 boards. Kind of like Singler before him (but with more overall physical gifts).

I'm relieved that Wiggins reclassified and took the number one spot - and national focus away - from Jabari. I think he otherwise would have had outsized and unfair expectations placed upon him that his type of game cannot satisfy (at least more than he has on him already). On that point, neither can Wiggins satisfy those expectations (whose raw athleticism is unparalleled by most but whose game is very incomplete as of now), as Bill Self has recently been trying to point out to help ease the burden on his star recruit.

Frankly, despite all the hype over this year's incoming college b-ball class, I don't see any freshman living up to the type of expectations placed upon Wiggins (NPOY? Really?). The closest might be Julius Randle, who I think will dominate in many games and ultimately take the number one spot in the draft.

Of course, I've been wrong on these things before. We'll just have to see how it all unfolds, which is the actual fun part!

[Dukehky]

This post concerns the Rasheed vs. Dawkins as the starting shooting guard.

Okay, so from what I've read and heard, Dre is ready to roll, which is shocking to me, because at the end of the last year when he announced he was coming back, I thought he wasn't going to sniff the courts. He is one of my favorite Duke basketball players ever (I don't really know why) but I love the kid, so I'm glad to see that he's BACK.

My affinity for Andre I don't think makes me prejudiced in my preference for who the starter should be. I think it should be Andre.

With Quinn, Jabari, Rodney, and Amile filling the other spots, that line-up is filled with slashing athletes who can do so many things with the ball in their hands. While I've heard Hood's shot is really strong, he was not a 3-point shooter at Miss St. I know he can shoot 3's but he's not a 3 point shooter. Guess who is? Andre Dawkins. With this line-up on the floor I think it would be dynamite for spacing to have somebody that you cannot leave for a split second or else he is going to light you up. His defense isn't great, but it can't be worse than it used to be right? Plus he's got an incredibly versatile group of defenders around him who can help mask his deficiencies. There's no traditional rim protector but Rodney, Parker, and Jefferson can be viable weak side shot blockers.

Rasheed is the 3rd best basketball player on this team in my mind. He is one of the best defenders on the team. Imagine bringing that off the bench. He would be an absolute spark plug. I also think he should log starters' minutes. This isn't a knock on Sulaimon's game, I doubt he's slacked off over the summer, I think this is just a more effective use of his talents. I think he should finish games. However, Sulaimon has a tendency to be really streaky with his shot and with his aggressiveness. If he comes off the bench I feel like he would be more inclined to start hot/aggressive than he tended to be at the start of some games last year.

6 of one half dozen of the other. Whomever starts, Duke's starting line-up and bench will be potent, I just think Dre would be better with the starting line-up, while Rasheed can have a create your own shot offense while Thornton/Hairston/Murph/etc, are on the court and are admittedly a little more limited offensively (a lot more). If Dre is on the court with that group or some of that group, he's not going to get a shot off, rendering the offense ultimately ineffective.

This is going to to be exciting.

[ChillinDuke]

I really think it comes down to spreading the floor on offense vs. on-ball defense. And I'm not sure which is more important.

With Sheed in the starting lineup, I presume teams would try to defend Duke by clogging the middle somewhat and forcing the four outside guys to hit their 3s. Not that any of the four are bad from deep, either. But with Dre in the starting lineup, there is no way a team can afford to leave him no matter where he is - 25 ft out even (I'm exaggerating......wait, am I?). I have to assume this would open up a decent amount of breathing room for the slashers - at least more breathing room than with Sheed in.

Yet on defense, it is unquestionable that Sheed showed way more prowess than Dre ever did in his time in uniform.

Both advantages are really unquestionable - which makes the solution very questionable indeed.

- Chillin

[flyingdutchdevil]

I know you weren't talking about denying him completely but on any given possession it takes a tremendous amount of effort to deny one person the ball (Especially when that person has 3-4 inches and 30-40 pounds over anyone on our team). And that amount of effort could easily result in open looks/easy baskets for other members of the opposing team. Essentially neutralizing the neutralization of the big man.

I'm not saying it couldn't work, but there's a give and take here. For everything we want to take away from the opposing team, we will have to give up some ground in other areas.

I have to agree with some of this. Has it ever really worked in the modern era, where big men come in a variety of sizes, athleticisms (not a word, but you know what I mean), and skill sets? Here is my analysis since 2002-2003 season (11 years of data):

2002-2006: Shelden Williams in the paint. One of the best defensive big men in the ACC. Ever. No need to invest that many resources into denying the post the ball.
2006-2007: McBob in the middle. Decent defensive big man. But more issues at the 1-4 than at the 5. They couldn't apply pressure like vintage Duke teams.
2007-2008: Singler in the middle. Lack of basically everything. We couldn't deny the post the ball effectively at all.
2008-2009: Mix between Zoubs, MP1, and a little Singler in the middle. Had a strong defensive presence with both Elliot Williams and Hendo. Fairly successful at defense.
2009-2010: Zoubs in the middle. Not the best big man defender, but ridiculously effective (I mean, 7'1"!). No real need to prevent big man the ball. Also, insanely good team D and good-great individual D at essentially all 5 positions.
2010-2013: Mason in the middle. Not a great defender. Applied great perimeter D in 2010-2011 that helped to deny the post the ball. Didn't have the personnel in 2011-2012. 2012-2013 had Kelly to help provide help D but not great perimeter D.

All in all, Duke hasn't really had to deny the post in the last 11 years. When we did, we had mixed results. 2006-07 didn't pan out at all, although that's more because of a lack of talent and McBob being a decent (but not great defender). In 2007-08, the plan fell apart. Part of that was Singler playing way out of position and a lot had to do with this team unable to contain the ball out of the post. 2008-2009 had a similar story in the post, although we had great perimeter D that really helped to prevent the ball from getting into the post. 2010-2013 again showed mix results.

IMO, the only year that this strategy really worked was 2008-09. The keys to successfully denying the post are:
1) Exceptional D at the 1
2) Exceptional team D at the 2-4
3) Big man who plays really good positional D

This year, I believe we have the 2) because we are insanely athletic and Coach K plans on pressing a lot, meaning we'll have a great understanding of team D. For 3), I think Amile can play good positional D, but banging around with guys 20-50 pounds heavier than him will take its toll over the game (and season). If Marshall can come in and provide 5-10 minutes of solid D, I think Amile should be okay. I think 1) is the primary issue. Cook is a great teammate, has the ability to successfully distribute, and can score effectively. On D, he's a better team defender than an individual defender. The ability to prevent the post starts with Cook and he holds the majority of the responsibility. It's a helluva task for someone who isn't seen as a defensive stopper. IMO, the best thing may be to do what the 2008-09 team did: use the 2 to guard the 1 (ie Elliot Williams), which would mean that Sulaimon would press the 1.

I think the strategy can work, but we're also going to need decent post D and exceptional team rebounding to be successful. Let's hope that Amile is up to the task and Hood, Parker, and Amile can form a solid rebounding unit.

[Kedsy]

I know you weren't talking about denying him completely but on any given possession it takes a tremendous amount of effort to deny one person the ball (Especially when that person has 3-4 inches and 30-40 pounds over anyone on our team). And that amount of effort could easily result in open looks/easy baskets for other members of the opposing team. Essentially neutralizing the neutralization of the big man.

I'm not saying it couldn't work, but there's a give and take here. For everything we want to take away from the opposing team, we will have to give up some ground in other areas.

That's a good point. I would counter with the opposite side of that same coin. If the opponent's best option is to their center, and we make it really difficult to get him the ball, then the energy they have to expend to get it to him takes away from their other offensive options. Also, if the big guy has to work harder (by moving around more to avoid the help defense), he may tire out more quickly and thus lose some effectiveness. Essentially balancing out the neutralizing of the neutralization. ;)

You're right about the give and take. The key to strong defense is balancing everything out and maximizing your overall effectiveness. All I was saying is our team is well built to balance out the lack of size at the center position. I think overall we'll be a top 10 or 15 defense, which combined with what will probably be a top 5 offense should translate into a lot of wins.

[Kedsy]

I have to agree with some of this. Has it ever really worked in the modern era, where big men come in a variety of sizes, athleticisms (not a word, but you know what I mean), and skill sets? Here is my analysis since 2002-2003 season (11 years of data):

It is interesting to see how your analysis jibes with Pomeroy's overall defensive efficiency numbers. I have some counter-analysis below.


2002-2006: Shelden Williams in the paint. One of the best defensive big men in the ACC. Ever. No need to invest that many resources into denying the post the ball.

Our defensive efficiency ranking during Shelden's four years were: #15 (2003), #4 (2004), #1 (2005), and #13 (2006). Kind of a wide range considering we had the same defensive anchor. I'd argue that it was our perimeter defenders that really drove the overall efficiency of our defense during this time period (although obviously having Shelden didn't hurt). I also remember that several opposing bigs had career games against Shelden-led Duke teams (Marco Killingsworth anyone?), so I don't think it's as simple as you seem to be making it out to be.


2006-2007: McBob in the middle. Decent defensive big man. But more issues at the 1-4 than at the 5. They couldn't apply pressure like vintage Duke teams.

Our defensive efficiency in 2006-07 was ranked #5 in the country. Defense wasn't our problem that season, offense was (#40, by far the worst Duke offense since Pomeroy's been keeping track).


2007-2008: Singler in the middle. Lack of basically everything. We couldn't deny the post the ball effectively at all.

Our defensive efficiency in 2007-08 was ranked #9 in the country. So if you're right that we couldn't deny the post effectively, it didn't really hurt our overall defense.


2008-2009: Mix between Zoubs, MP1, and a little Singler in the middle. Had a strong defensive presence with both Elliot Williams and Hendo. Fairly successful at defense.

Our defensive efficiency in 2008-09 was ranked #20. One of our worst showings since Pomeroy's been running the numbers. I realize that #20 isn't bad in a vacuum, but it's interesting that you call this season "fairly successful at defense" when it is much worse than some years you suggest were not defensively successful.


2009-2010: Zoubs in the middle. Not the best big man defender, but ridiculously effective (I mean, 7'1"!). No real need to prevent big man the ball. Also, insanely good team D and good-great individual D at essentially all 5 positions.

Yes, in the 2009-10 season our defense was ranked #4.


2010-2012: Mason in the middle. Not a great defender. Applied great perimeter D in 2010-2011 that helped to deny the post the ball. Didn't have the personnel in 2011-2012.

Not sure these years should be lumped together. In 2010-11, our D was ranked #8; in 2011-12 it was ranked #70. Since the interior defenders were more or less the same in those two years, I'd argue the difference between the teams was perimeter defense.


2012-2013 had Kelly to help provide help D but not great perimeter D.

Our D was ranked #27 in 2012-13. Before Ryan got hurt it was ranked much higher, so considering the injury I'm not sure how many conclusions we can draw from this season.


All in all, Duke hasn't really had to deny the post in the last 11 years. When we did, we had mixed results. 2006-07 didn't pan out at all, although that's more because of a lack of talent and McBob being a decent (but not great defender). In 2007-08, the plan fell apart. Part of that was Singler playing way out of position and a lot had to do with this team unable to contain the ball out of the post. 2008-2009 had a similar story in the post, although we had great perimeter D that really helped to prevent the ball from getting into the post. 2010-2013 again showed mix results.

IMO, the only year that this strategy really worked was 2008-09. The keys to successfully denying the post are:

Again, funny that your eyes saw success in 2008-09 (#20) and failure in 2006-07 (#5) and 2007-08 (#9). To me, this says that the overall effectiveness of a defense doesn't necessarily rely on how successfully we can defend the post.

[flyingdutchdevil]

It is interesting to see how your analysis jibes with Pomeroy's overall defensive efficiency numbers. I have some counter-analysis below.



Our defensive efficiency ranking during Shelden's four years were: #15 (2003), #4 (2004), #1 (2005), and #13 (2006). Kind of a wide range considering we had the same defensive anchor. I'd argue that it was our perimeter defenders that really drove the overall efficiency of our defense during this time period (although obviously having Shelden didn't hurt). I also remember that several opposing bigs had career games against Shelden-led Duke teams (Marco Killingsworth anyone?), so I don't think it's as simple as you seem to be making it out to be.



Our defensive efficiency in 2006-07 was ranked #5 in the country. Defense wasn't our problem that season, offense was (#40, by far the worst Duke offense since Pomeroy's been keeping track).



Our defensive efficiency in 2007-08 was ranked #9 in the country. So if you're right that we couldn't deny the post effectively, it didn't really hurt our overall defense.



Our defensive efficiency in 2008-09 was ranked #20. One of our worst showings since Pomeroy's been running the numbers. I realize that #20 isn't bad in a vacuum, but it's interesting that you call this season "fairly successful at defense" when it is much worse than some years you suggest were not defensively successful.



Yes, in the 2009-10 season our defense was ranked #4.



Not sure these years should be lumped together. In 2010-11, our D was ranked #8; in 2011-12 it was ranked #70. Since the interior defenders were more or less the same in those two years, I'd argue the difference between the teams was perimeter defense.



Our D was ranked #27 in 2012-13. Before Ryan got hurt it was ranked much higher, so considering the injury I'm not sure how many conclusions we can draw from this season.



Again, funny that your eyes saw success in 2008-09 (#20) and failure in 2006-07 (#5) and 2007-08 (#9). To me, this says that the overall effectiveness of a defense doesn't necessarily rely on how successfully we can defend the post.

Agreed that your numbers tell a much different story. And I also agree that my eyes are somewhat funny at times.

I clearly remember that the 2006-2007 team had pretty bad defense, but that may be because poor offense made me think that the defense was poor as well. In 2008-2009, I remember a subpar team altogether, although that may be because we got knocked out by WVU in a horrible game. In 2008-2009, I remember that our D was amazing towards the end of the year, especially once we inserted Elliot Williams (and that only happened in the last 20-25% of the season). Again, you have the facts, I just have my memory.

But I'll stand by my initial assertion: you need a few elements to prevent the post effectively, and it still remains to be seen whether that is a viable strategy or not. I am with the posters who believe that it is much more difficult to deny the post in practice than theory. Few coaches have the personnel to do it, and few coaches have the ability to execute with the right personnel.

[Des Esseintes]

Agreed that your numbers tell a much different story. And I also agree that my eyes are somewhat funny at times.

I clearly remember that the 2006-2007 team had pretty bad defense, but that may be because poor offense made me think that the defense was poor as well. In 2008-2009, I remember a subpar team altogether, although that may be because we got knocked out by WVU in a horrible game. In 2008-2009, I remember that our D was amazing towards the end of the year, especially once we inserted Elliot Williams (and that only happened in the last 20-25% of the season). Again, you have the facts, I just have my memory.

But I'll stand by my initial assertion: you need a few elements to prevent the post effectively, and it still remains to be seen whether that is a viable strategy or not. I am with the posters who believe that it is much more difficult to deny the post in practice than theory. Few coaches have the personnel to do it, and few coaches have the ability to execute with the right personnel.

This part is often misunderstood. Denying the post doesn't mean keeping opposing bigs from ever touching the ball. You're right that that is extremely difficult. What is much less difficult and what you see much more often is keeping opposing bigs from catching the ball in a useful place. How many times in Mason's first three years* at Duke did we bemoan him catching the ball too far from the basket to do something useful with it? Sometimes it happened because the opposing center was strong and energetic enough to deny him post positon; other times, though, it resulted from the perimeter defense cutting off the angles from which he could receive the ball in deep. He had to cheat out a few feet to get possession, and those feet made all the difference between a good scoring opportunity and a bad one. Post denial is absolutely a viable strategy, one you see all the time, not least at Duke.

*Last year, it was generally different. Mason was stronger than almost anyone he went against and regularly got good position, and we had better passing from the perimeter to get it in to him. Nobody is going to completely shut down a great offense.

[flyingdutchdevil]

This part is often misunderstood. Denying the post doesn't mean keeping opposing bigs from ever touching the ball. You're right that that is extremely difficult. What is much less difficult and what you see much more often is keeping opposing bigs from catching the ball in a useful place. How many times in Mason's first three years* at Duke did we bemoan him catching the ball too far from the basket to do something useful with it? Sometimes it happened because the opposing center was strong and energetic enough to deny him post positon; other times, though, it resulted from the perimeter defense cutting off the angles from which he could receive the ball in deep. He had to cheat out a few feet to get possession, and those feet made all the difference between a good scoring opportunity and a bad one. Post denial is absolutely a viable strategy, one you see all the time, not least at Duke.

*Last year, it was generally different. Mason was stronger than almost anyone he went against and regularly got good position, and we had better passing from the perimeter to get it in to him. Nobody is going to completely shut down a great offense.

You are right. And, as per my post above (not sure which one), I stated that the 5 needs to play strong positional D in order to help deny the post. Can Amile, who will be 20-40 pounds lighter than most 5s, be able to do this for 30 min a game? I think that is something that we really need to ask.

[Billy Dat]

You are right. And, as per my post above (not sure which one), I stated that the 5 needs to play strong positional D in order to help deny the post. Can Amile, who will be 20-40 pounds lighter than most 5s, be able to do this for 30 min a game? I think that is something that we really need to ask.

Maybe, leveraging the potentially strong weakside help from Jabari that Kedsy mentioned earlier, our post defense involves a ton of Amile fronting, daring the guards to throw over the top and risk weak-side pick-offs. The staff will design a team scheme for all of this, and it will be up to the team to execute it. Maybe the bigger worry is preventing the second chance as opponents crash the glass hard?

[uh_no]

I clearly remember that the 2006-2007 team had pretty bad defense, but that may be because poor offense made me think that the defense was poor as well. In 2008-2009, I remember a subpar team altogether, although that may be because we got knocked out by WVU in a horrible game.


Your memory might not be as clear as you have thought....we lost to villanova in 08/09 :)

[COYS]

I have to agree with some of this. Has it ever really worked in the modern era, where big men come in a variety of sizes, athleticisms (not a word, but you know what I mean), and skill sets? Here is my analysis since 2002-2003 season (11 years of data):


2006-2007: McBob in the middle. Decent defensive big man. But more issues at the 1-4 than at the 5. They couldn't apply pressure like vintage Duke teams.
2007-2008: Singler in the middle. Lack of basically everything. We couldn't deny the post the ball effectively at all.
2008-2009: Mix between Zoubs, MP1, and a little Singler in the middle. Had a strong defensive presence with both Elliot Williams and Hendo. Fairly successful at defense.

2006-07 didn't pan out at all, although that's more because of a lack of talent and McBob being a decent (but not great defender). In 2007-08, the plan fell apart. Part of that was Singler playing way out of position and a lot had to do with this team unable to contain the ball out of the post. 2008-2009 had a similar story in the post, although we had great perimeter D that really helped to prevent the ball from getting into the post.

IMO, the only year that this strategy really worked was 2008-09. The keys to successfully denying the post are:
1) Exceptional D at the 1
2) Exceptional team D at the 2-4
3) Big man who plays really good positional D



I think your analysis of what this year's team needs to do is spot on, but I think the analysis of past teams is actually a little off. The 2006-2007 season was the most disappointing season of the past 15 years for Duke fans. However, that team was actually pretty good at defense, ranking 5th in adjusted Defense in KenPom (http://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2007). In fact, that was Duke's highest defensive ranking from that year to the present save for 2010 when we finished 4th. The 2007 Duke team just couldn't score like past Duke teams had been able to.

In 2007-2008, the offense rebounded in a big way, which is why the team had much better results, but the defense was also good. That season ended with a loss to UNC in the regular season finale (a game that Duke looked every bit as good as UNC until the last four minutes), a loss to Clemson in the ACC Tourney as K was trying to work the previously injured Zoubek back into the rotation in case we needed him in the tournament, the narrow escape vs. Belmont, and then the loss to WVU. The end was disappointing, but the team did an excellent job denying the ball into the post all season and ranked 9th in defensive efficiency even after the loss to WVU (in which we got out-small-balled by a WVU team with Joe Alexander playing center).

2008-2009 was a better year in terms of the team winning the ACC tourney (although we avoided the eventual champion Heels thanks to Roy deciding to sit Lawson) and making it one game farther in the NCAA tournament, but the team defense actually took a step back (possibly due to losing ACC Defensive Player of the Year Demarcus Nelson). Our final ranking was 20. When Elliot Williams entered the starting lineup and Scheyer took over point guard duties, our offense got better but our defense did not. Again, the results at the end of the season were better in terms of games won, but the defense was not necessarily any better and, according to KenPom, was actually a little bit worse.

However, in terms of un-Duke-like defense, the past two seasons have actually been worse than the 2006-2009 stretch. 2012 was terrible in terms of Duke defense as we all know. We were much better last year, but still finished only 27th, which is the second worst finish in this time period.

So, I would say that you're right in that we need to stop the ball at the point of attack, play great team defense to prevent post players from getting the ball, and have Amile play as well as he possibly can when he is isolated against an opponents big. However, this strategy was actually been pretty dang effective in 2007-2008 and 2008-2009, and that was with smaller teams, overall. What is a legitimate concern is our smaller players wearing down after playing against bigger players (which is what happened to Kyle during his freshman season), but I'm hopeful it is only Amile that is consistently pitted against bigger players. Josh isn't tall, but he's strong and can bang. Marshall is huge, even if he's still raw. Jabari is plenty big to defend most power forwards and is bigger than Amile, which will help during the occasional stretch when he guards opposing centers. And, much as Gerald Henderson's strength and leaping ability helped us win a lot of battles at the three spot in 2008 and 2009, Rodney Hood's size and athleticism will hopefully be a weapon that will give us strong, disruptive defense at the three spot plus a few extra rebounds thanks to his size.

Not to take anything away from DeMarcus, Scheyer, Singler, Nolan, or Gerald, but I think this year's Duke team is perhaps more talented than the '08 and '09 squads. Those teams handled big teams well and were ultimately undone by quicker teams (visions of Ty Lawson, WVU's guards and 'Nova's guards slashing through our defense are flashing in my head). I'm hopeful that with an improved Quinn, Rasheed, Rodney, Jabari, and Amile plus our deep bench, this year's team will be equally good at handling big teams and even better at containing quick teams.

Time will tell, but I'm optimistic.

[Mcluhan]

My thoughts based on this past week's info:


K's comments about who's certain to start and what spots are still unresolved are most likely a reflection of real competition at the 1 and 2 positions.
Remember that the last season Dawkins played he had four games of 20+. He should clearly be in the mix for a starting spot.
It sounds like opposing teams will need to give Hood and Parker a lot of attention. Given that these guys are good passers, I think we can expect Amile et al to get some good looks, as well as whoever we've got out at the three point line.
Our speed athleticism and pressure should obviate the need for great size in most cases.

[MarkD83]

Whenever we analyze success and failure of past teams the discussion is always related to a single parameter. Unfortunately all of these correlations fail because winning and losing is a multiparameter problem. You can win with
1) More individual talent than another team
2) Better team defense
3) Better team offense
4) Better coaching to maximize a team's strengths and hide a team's weaknessess
5) Better single game and in-game coaching/execution to exploit another team's weakness and take away their strengths

So for 2013-14....
Duke clearly is in the top 5 of schools having great talent. As much as I want to put on my blue colored glasses some of the past teams that lost too many games at the end of the year were not as talented as this year.
We can't really tell about team defense until they play someone other than the "blue" or "white" team since the players know each others tendencies on offense.
Clearly there are a lot more offensive weapons than in past years. We will have to see whether they can recognize the player's that are hot during any given game and can get that person the ball.
Better coaching to maximize a team's strengths....well let's just say....Coach K and leave it at that.
In-game coaching and execution is always an iffy proposition. I have no doubt that this team has the versatile players to cover all situations. They may also exceute the game-plan to perfection, but if some team all of the sudden can't miss from outside, well no amount of preparation can cover that.

[Li_Duke]

Whenever we analyze success and failure of past teams the discussion is always related to a single parameter. Unfortunately all of these correlations fail because winning and losing is a multiparameter problem. You can win with
1) More individual talent than another team
2) Better team defense
3) Better team offense
4) Better coaching to maximize a team's strengths and hide a team's weaknessess
5) Better single game and in-game coaching/execution to exploit another team's weakness and take away their strengths.

I'd also add 6. Luck (a hot hand, a higher relative proportion of makes, winning 50-50 balls, tournament seeding, etc...).

We tend to measure past teams by how they did in their final few games. With a few unlucky bounces earlier in the tournament, perhaps we'd consider the 2010 team as not any better/worse than the ones before and after.

[roywhite]

I'd also add 6. Luck (a hot hand, a higher relative proportion of makes, winning 50-50 balls, tournament seeding, etc...).

We tend to measure past teams by how they did in their final few games. With a few unlucky bounces earlier in the tournament, perhaps we'd consider the 2010 team as not any better/worse than the ones before and after.

Yes and no; no doubt the single-elimination format of the NCAA produces plenty of risk and can be an incomplete way of judging a team overall.

But the 2010 team, for example, lost only once after January that year, and that was a competitive game at Maryland. They clearly played well down the stretch. In contrast, the 2011-12 team faltered late, and were not playing well going into the game vs Lehigh.

All part of the fun, and perils, of following our team, I guess.

[Des Esseintes]

I think your analysis of what this year's team needs to do is spot on, but I think the analysis of past teams is actually a little off. The 2006-2007 season was the most disappointing season of the past 15 years for Duke fans. However, that team was actually pretty good at defense, ranking 5th in adjusted Defense in KenPom (http://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2007). In fact, that was Duke's highest defensive ranking from that year to the present save for 2010 when we finished 4th. The 2007 Duke team just couldn't score like past Duke teams had been able to.


Just to underline your point about the defense of the 06-07 team. That 5th place is actually underselling their performance a tad. Until Dave McClure got injured, Duke's defense was leading the nation by about a country mile in kenpom's tempo-free statistics. (There are no records of midseason available, but I recall being amazed looking our ranking each week.) I can't remember exactly when Dave went down, but almost half the season or more had elapsed. After that, the defense wasn't the same. Coincidence was probably not entirely causality, because we also hit the meat of the conference schedule after he departed--and I certainly don't mean to suggest McClure was some ultimate basketball fulcrum-- but the fact remains that the Duke D was performing at historic levels prior to that point.

[Billy Dat]

In contrast, the 2011-12 team faltered late, and were not playing well going into the game vs Lehigh.

When we beat FSU on the road on 2/23/12, I thought we were poised for a serious run. Then we looked terrible against VTech and never really looked good again. Based on K's comments on Friday, it sounds like that season really made him consider hanging it up. Thank god he had a good experience that summer in London and with last year's squad.

[timmy c]

I have enjoyed reading some well thought out comments discussing Amile’s post defense and potential issues from playing an unorthodox lineup. All these comments have merit, but Coach K is a master at getting guys to operate within their areas of strength.

Instead of focusing on the weaknesses of Jefferson’s game, think about what he does best– play instinctively, face guard most anyone on the court 1-5, interject energy that forces opponents to play faster than they are comfortable – and you begin to see why he’s such a great fit with Parker and Hood. Here are two defensive scenarios where Amile will excel:

Screen defense
Teams that use their big to set screens for their playmaker might end up getting a switch where their player with the ball has to deal with a lockdown defender with a 7-0+ wing span. In the pick-n-roll this means shooting over Jefferson or passing around him. Jefferson can switch on anything – no off the ball screens to get open looks for three from the corners. Setting down screens against Duke will be an invitation to ball pressure and trapping. Opposing guards will feel like they have to break the press against 6 guys.
Full-court defense
Amile can guard the out of bounds player anywhere in the backcourt – made baskets, out of timeouts or fouls. His length and quickness will be a nightmare especially in Cameron where the sideline means you are standing with the crazies. If the inbounds pass is into the short corner, you get an immediate trap. A turner over pretty much guarantees a poster-dunk over a 6-0 guard.

Duke will give something up by playing an unorthodox lineup, but the trade-offs could be fantastic. I can’t wait for the season to get here so that we can all enjoy the genius of Coach K and his uber talented squad.

[Matches]

Just to underline your point about the defense of the 06-07 team. That 5th place is actually underselling their performance a tad. Until Dave McClure got injured, Duke's defense was leading the nation by about a country mile in kenpom's tempo-free statistics. (There are no records of midseason available, but I recall being amazed looking our ranking each week.) I can't remember exactly when Dave went down, but almost half the season or more had elapsed. After that, the defense wasn't the same. Coincidence was probably not entirely causality, because we also hit the meat of the conference schedule after he departed--and I certainly don't mean to suggest McClure was some ultimate basketball fulcrum-- but the fact remains that the Duke D was performing at historic levels prior to that point.

Yea that team wasn't particularly good defensively by the end of the season. It was really outstanding on D early, though, even against good competition. (The Georgetown game stands out.) Offense was a problem all year.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Maybe, leveraging the potentially strong weakside help from Jabari that Kedsy mentioned earlier, our post defense involves a ton of Amile fronting, daring the guards to throw over the top and risk weak-side pick-offs. The staff will design a team scheme for all of this, and it will be up to the team to execute it. Maybe the bigger worry is preventing the second chance as opponents crash the glass hard?

I agree that is also a concern. But the size of Jabari, Hood, and our 2 guard will hopefully create some good team rebounding. My biggest concern is still Amile. Not from an offensive point of view, where I think he will succeed this year. And not from a rebounding point of view, where he will be asked to do some (but the rest of team will be expected to contribute greatly), but from a containment point of view. 5s will score on Amile. I do not doubt that. But limiting those touches and doing a decent job of defending without fouling is what we need. Jabari will help on D, but help D can only go so far. We can't mask Amile's potential deficiencies on D all the time.

I know that I've been one of the vocal posters who is very concerned about Amile. And, truth be told, not much has changed. Our team has the potential to be as talented as any Duke team in the last 12 years (if not more). But I think that the ability to guard the 5 is still very worrisome to me, especially big, beefy bigs that we will unquestionable face this season.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Your memory might not be as clear as you have thought....we lost to villanova in 08/09 :)

I...I have no response. Thanks for the clarification. I need to stop talking about Duke teams from the mid 2000s. :p

[Des Esseintes]

I agree that is also a concern. But the size of Jabari, Hood, and our 2 guard will hopefully create some good team rebounding. My biggest concern is still Amile. Not from an offensive point of view, where I think he will succeed this year. And not from a rebounding point of view, where he will be asked to do some (but the rest of team will be expected to contribute greatly), but from a containment point of view. 5s will score on Amile. I do not doubt that. But limiting those touches and doing a decent job of defending without fouling is what we need. Jabari will help on D, but help D can only go so far. We can't mask Amile's potential deficiencies on D all the time.

I know that I've been one of the vocal posters who is very concerned about Amile. And, truth be told, not much has changed. Our team has the potential to be as talented as any Duke team in the last 12 years (if not more). But I think that the ability to guard the 5 is still very worrisome to me, especially big, beefy bigs that we will unquestionable face this season.

It was suggested more over the summer than I've heard lately, but if we play a team with a dominant 5, it would not surprise me to see Parker on him late.

[timmy c]

I agree that is also a concern. But the size of Jabari, Hood, and our 2 guard will hopefully create some good team rebounding. My biggest concern is still Amile. Not from an offensive point of view, where I think he will succeed this year. And not from a rebounding point of view, where he will be asked to do some (but the rest of team will be expected to contribute greatly), but from a containment point of view. 5s will score on Amile. I do not doubt that. But limiting those touches and doing a decent job of defending without fouling is what we need. Jabari will help on D, but help D can only go so far. We can't mask Amile's potential deficiencies on D all the time.

I know that I've been one of the vocal posters who is very concerned about Amile. And, truth be told, not much has changed. Our team has the potential to be as talented as any Duke team in the last 12 years (if not more). But I think that the ability to guard the 5 is still very worrisome to me, especially big, beefy bigs that we will unquestionable face this season.

FDD, I appreciate your concerns and think you have made some valid arguments, but thinking about the current team in terms of traditional positions is a mistake. This team is going to be very unique.

Does Amile have to guard the 5 by himself? Can Parker guard the 5? Someone else???(Thornton spent some time guarding the opposing 4 last year!!!) Could we see some Syracuse zone out of a full-court press? (say-it-aint-so!!!)

[Kedsy]

But I think that the ability to guard the 5 is still very worrisome to me, especially big, beefy bigs that we will unquestionable face this season.

In Shelden Williams's senior season, the following opposing bigs led their team in scoring against Duke:

Ian Johnson (Davidson), 19 points
Marco Killingsworth (Indiana), 34 points
LeMarcus Aldridge (Texas), 21 points
Eric Williams (Wake), 17 points
Eric Williams (Wake), 17 points (2nd on team in scoring in this game)
Eric Williams (Wake), 23 points
Craig Smith (BC), 19 points (2nd on team in scoring in this game)
Cedric Simmons (NCSU), 28 points
Al Thornton (FSU), 37 points
Al Thornton (FSU), 26 points
Jeremis Smith (GaTech), 18 points
Tyler Hansbrough (UNC), 27 points
Omar Williams (GW), 14 points
Glen Davis (LSU), 14 points

There may have been others -- these were the players I knew to be big men. (Also, not sure Shelden was guarding Al Thornton the whole game, but I think he did at least some of the game - could be wrong about that.)

This is when Shelden Williams was a senior and NDPOY.

My point is guarding the other team's center is not a one-on-one proposition. Put another way, I'd guess there is almost no chance that opposing centers will do as well "against" Amile Jefferson this season than they did "against" Shelden Williams in 2005-06.

[flyingdutchdevil]

In Shelden Williams's senior season, the following opposing bigs led their team in scoring against Duke:

Ian Johnson (Davidson), 19 points
Marco Killingsworth (Indiana), 34 points
LeMarcus Aldridge (Texas), 21 points
Eric Williams (Wake), 17 points
Eric Williams (Wake), 17 points (2nd on team in scoring in this game)
Eric Williams (Wake), 23 points
Craig Smith (BC), 19 points (2nd on team in scoring in this game)
Cedric Simmons (NCSU), 28 points
Al Thornton (FSU), 37 points
Al Thornton (FSU), 26 points
Jeremis Smith (GaTech), 18 points
Tyler Hansbrough (UNC), 27 points
Omar Williams (GW), 14 points
Glen Davis (LSU), 14 points

There may have been others -- these were the players I knew to be big men. (Also, not sure Shelden was guarding Al Thornton the whole game, but I think he did at least some of the game - could be wrong about that.)

This is when Shelden Williams was a senior and NDPOY.

My point is guarding the other team's center is not a one-on-one proposition. Put another way, I'd guess there is almost no chance that opposing centers will do as well "against" Amile Jefferson this season than they did "against" Shelden Williams in 2005-06.

This isn't apples to apples here. Whoever Shelden was guarding never demanded a double team because, for the most part, Shelden was that reliable. It's impossible to measure, but the number of points that opposing teams didn't score due to a lack of openings when double teams appear probably accounted for that team's success.

If we decide to double whoever Amile's man is, the help D's primary man will undoubtedly score gimmes. It's the nature of the risk-reward trade-off. Again, it still has to be seen how much help Amile will need. My guess, due to his weight and size, he will need frequent double teams.

These "gimmes" can be mitigated by exceptional team D. I think we will get to that stage, but we are starting (most likely) 1 freshman, 3 sophomores, and 1 junior. Experience goes a long way for team D, and we don't really have that team D.

I am looking forward to our season. Hell, I can't wait for it to start. But there are concerns, and this one to me is by far the largest.

[Bob Green]

@Cameron- I also respect the hell out of you and your posting, but I saw no semblence of Ray Allen and Trajan in Matt Jones.

I agree. Jones looked like a freshman out there, which is what he is. With the backcourt depth available on this team, count me in the group that believes Jones will see limited minutes.


Rasheed is the 3rd best basketball player on this team in my mind. He is one of the best defenders on the team. Imagine bringing that off the bench. He would be an absolute spark plug. I also think he should log starters' minutes. This isn't a knock on Sulaimon's game, I doubt he's slacked off over the summer, I think this is just a more effective use of his talents. I think he should finish games. However, Sulaimon has a tendency to be really streaky with his shot and with his aggressiveness. If he comes off the bench I feel like he would be more inclined to start hot/aggressive than he tended to be at the start of some games last year.

You make a compelling case for sophomore Sulaimon coming off the bench in the 6th man role a la Jon Scheyer as a sophomore in 2008. Perhaps you are correct, but I believe he will start and Dawkins will come off the bench in a "hired assassin" role. I'm one of the biggest Andre Dawkins fan around, and he looked good last Saturday at practice, but Sulaimon is the superior defender so my counterargument to your case is Coach K is going to desire to play pressure defense from the opening tip in order to jump all over the opponent. Sulaimon is the superior defensive player better suited to being on the court during an all out assault. And his offense isn't shabby.

The bottom line, IMO, is both Sulaimon and Dawkins are going to see a lot of minutes at shooting guard.

[rsvman]

A month or two ago I was one of only a very few posters who predicted that Dawkins will surprise a lot of people this year with his great play and his contributions to the team.

I see that, after the open practice, more people are coming around to my point of view. I still believe that Dawkins will surprise. Time will tell, but I'm very optimistic.

[sagegrouse]

A month or two ago I was one of only a very few posters who predicted that Dawkins will surprise a lot of people this year with his great play and his contributions to the team.

I see that, after the open practice, more people are coming around to my point of view. I still believe that Dawkins will surprise. Time will tell, but I'm very optimistic.

As my Mother says, "Don't break your arm patting yourself on the back." (This is meant kindly.) Nevertheless, it is apparently a good call -- great for Duke and Andre and pretty darned good for Rsvman. Congratulations!

I was very skeptical on Andre's contribution, and I am happy to be wrong. Sitting out a year and being ineffective for the half-season before the sit-out did not exactly form a positive trend line. Perhaps the gain of gray matter between the ears more than offset the rust accumulating elsewhere on his body.

sagegrouse

[Kedsy]

This isn't apples to apples here. Whoever Shelden was guarding never demanded a double team because, for the most part, Shelden was that reliable. It's impossible to measure, but the number of points that opposing teams didn't score due to a lack of openings when double teams appear probably accounted for that team's success.

If we decide to double whoever Amile's man is, the help D's primary man will undoubtedly score gimmes. It's the nature of the risk-reward trade-off. Again, it still has to be seen how much help Amile will need. My guess, due to his weight and size, he will need frequent double teams.

First of all, help defense doesn't have come in the form of a double-team. Ryan Kelly was great at help-side D last season, but he didn't double on Mason's man. I think Jabari's help will probably be closer to Ryan's style than a double-team.

But putting that aside, my point was Amile's man won't need a double-team very often. I believe our perimeter defenders will make it difficult for opponents to get the ball into the post. But even if they don't, do you think Amile's man will score more than Shelden's man scored in 2005-06?

The guys Shelden was guarding scored all those points because we had some weaknesses on the perimeter and he had to step up to help on penetration and we were willing to let the opposing center score. This year, it is much less likely that we'll give up the penetration, but if we're still willing to allow the opposing center to score (at least as much as we were when Shelden was here), then a double-team won't be necessary.

In other words, we're never going to pitch a shutout; you have to pick your poison, and if the opposing center scores 20 points but we shut down the rest of the team, we're probably going to win. So all Amile has to do is "limit" the opposing center to 20 points or so (and yes, obviously this is a bit of an oversimplification, but I think the main point holds), which I assume he can do without stressing the rest of our defense too much.

[Newton_14]

Yes and no; no doubt the single-elimination format of the NCAA produces plenty of risk and is an incomplete way of judging a team overall.

But the 2010 team, for example, lost only once after January that year, and that was a competitive game at Maryland. They clearly played well down the stretch. In contrast, the 2011-12 team faltered late, and were not playing well going into the game vs Lehigh.

All part of the fun, and perils, of following our team, I guess.

There, fixed it for you Roy...

[UrinalCake]

I recall that our strategy when we had Shelden was always to take away the perimeter shots and let Shelden guard his man one on one. Since he was basically on an island by himself, and on top of that had to be always mindful of foul trouble since he had no backup, it's not surprising that opposing bigs scored a lot. In that Indiana game where Killingsworth scored 34, I recall they also went something like 1-20 from three, and most importantly we WON THE GAME.

I agree with Kedsy's point, which is that post defense is part of a team design and not a individual player's performance. And I think our size and athleticism on the perimeter will be way higher this season than it was in 2006

[flyingdutchdevil]

I recall that our strategy when we had Shelden was always to take away the perimeter shots and let Shelden guard his man one on one. Since he was basically on an island by himself, and on top of that had to be always mindful of foul trouble since he had no backup, it's not surprising that opposing bigs scored a lot. In that Indiana game where Killingsworth scored 34, I recall they also went something like 1-20 from three, and most importantly we WON THE GAME.

I agree with Kedsy's point, which is that post defense is part of a team design and not a individual player's performance. And I think our size and athleticism on the perimeter will be way higher this season than it was in 2006

I think you're spot on. But Amile isn't Shelden, and it's not even close. Shelden weighted 35 pounds heavier than Amile, and he knew how to use that weight. Even though Amile has gained upwards of 30 pounds this summer, it's new weight and he needs to know how to use it.

Coach K will do everything in his power to get our guards and forwards to play 'deny the post' defense. However, Amile will have to hold his own. If not, we'll be seeing either MP3, who may not be ready, or Jabari, who get burned out by guarding the post for too long.

I hope I'm wrong, but I'm really worried about an unproven 5 who will often be out-muscled. I guess I just need to have a little faith.

[killerleft]

A month or two ago I was one of only a very few posters who predicted that Dawkins will surprise a lot of people this year with his great play and his contributions to the team.

I see that, after the open practice, more people are coming around to my point of view. I still believe that Dawkins will surprise. Time will tell, but I'm very optimistic.

I'm certainly with you. Although others have expressed a concern regarding Andre's year off, for me it was an obvious PLUS. These young guys don't forget how to play, and they all push themselves too hard, in my opinion. It should be a win-win situation.

[JMarley50]

It has been a while since I have actually posted anything here, but I have been reading and wanted to chime in on the post defense concerns. I do not think that it will be a big issue personally. When paired with his long arms and agility, I think the muscle that Amile has added will be enough to allow him to sufficiently defend a true 5. He is going to be a lot quicker and more agile than most true 5's. I imagine that he will be fronting the post a lot and denying the entry pass completely, he can still make it very difficult for guards to pass over the top due to his length. Also, as someone else mentioned, the defense this year is going to be much more "in your face" so to speak. That will further complicate guards passing into the post. Sure, if Amile gets stuck playing behind a 7 footer and the guard is able to get him the ball, it can be an easy bucket. But I just do not see that happening very often. Opposing teams are not going to be allowed to walk the ball up the court, get into a half court offense, and make an easy entry pass to the post. They are going to be harassed constantly and forced to run a lot. Most 7 footers (outside of the Plumlees) do not like to run as much as this team will force them to, which will also help Amile.

[Mcluhan]

Whenever we analyze success and failure of past teams the discussion is always related to a single parameter. Unfortunately all of these correlations fail because winning and losing is a multiparameter problem. You can win with
1) More individual talent than another team
2) Better team defense
3) Better team offense
4) Better coaching to maximize a team's strengths and hide a team's weaknessess
5) Better single game and in-game coaching/execution to exploit another team's weakness and take away their strengths

So for 2013-14....
Duke clearly is in the top 5 of schools having great talent. As much as I want to put on my blue colored glasses some of the past teams that lost too many games at the end of the year were not as talented as this year.
We can't really tell about team defense until they play someone other than the "blue" or "white" team since the players know each others tendencies on offense.
Clearly there are a lot more offensive weapons than in past years. We will have to see whether they can recognize the player's that are hot during any given game and can get that person the ball.
Better coaching to maximize a team's strengths....well let's just say....Coach K and leave it at that.
In-game coaching and execution is always an iffy proposition. I have no doubt that this team has the versatile players to cover all situations. They may also execute the game-plan to perfection, but if some team all of the sudden can't miss from outside, well no amount of preparation can cover that.

YES. Well put. Focusing on whatever we can't do optimally and assuming that it will therefore sink us misses the forest for the trees a bit, methinks.