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JBDuke
09-24-2013, 09:58 PM
Thread for discussing the Duke/Troy football game coming up this Saturday, September 28th. Game time is 3 pm. Looks like "TV" will be ESPN3.

Edouble
09-24-2013, 10:44 PM
Thread for discussing the Duke/Troy football game coming up this Saturday, September 28th. Game time is 3 pm. Looks like "TV" will be ESPN3.

Need to watch out for Troy's secondary.

El_Diablo
09-24-2013, 10:55 PM
Need to watch out for Troy's secondary.

Trojans are effective in wrapping it up.

-jk
09-24-2013, 11:28 PM
Trojans are effective in wrapping it up.

Long time ago "Chronicle" headline: "'Cocks spurt past Trojans". Had they lost, I'm sure it'd have been "Trojans contain 'Cocks". The censor was asleep at the switch. Either way, South Carolina v. Southern Cal would've made "head"lines. Or something...

-jk

throatybeard
09-25-2013, 12:06 AM
Long time ago "Chronicle" headline: "'Cocks spurt past Trojans". Had they lost, I'm sure it'd have been "Trojans contain 'Cocks". The censor was asleep at the switch. Either way, South Carolina v. Southern Cal would've made "head"lines. Or something...

-jk

I've always thought there should be a four-team invitational between South Carolina, Southern Cal, Oregon State, and Morehead State.
I don't really even care what sport.

Reilly
09-25-2013, 06:29 AM
I've always thought there should be a four-team invitational between South Carolina, Southern Cal, Oregon State, and Morehead State.
I don't really even care what sport.

Rather than giving one or the other a competitive advantage, they should compete at a neutral site -- maybe at FU (Furman University)?

wilson
09-25-2013, 07:37 AM
Rather than giving one or the other a competitive advantage, they should compete at a neutral site -- maybe at FU (Furman University)?Or perhaps Slippery Rock.

devildeac
09-25-2013, 08:40 AM
Trojans are effective in wrapping it up.

I'm hoping the Trojans won't be able to contain us after our explosive performance last week, scoring 7 times and racking up 55 points and > 500 yards on offense.

Just to get the thread back on topic for Duke v Troy:rolleyes::o.

killerleft
09-25-2013, 08:47 AM
Don't Troy with me, the reign of the Trojan Enz Saturday.

Reilly
09-25-2013, 08:53 AM
... Just to get the thread back on topic ....

What? We were talking offensive matters. I guess defense is of a larger concern these days ....

devildeac
09-25-2013, 09:17 AM
What? We were talking offensive matters. I guess defense is of a larger concern these days ....

Ok, I'll cover that, too. I hope the Trojans are not able to protect their QB and our DL is able to pressure and/or sack him/them with regularity.

dpslaw
09-25-2013, 01:45 PM
I've always thought there should be a four-team invitational between South Carolina, Southern Cal, Oregon State, and Morehead State.
I don't really even care what sport.

Maybe I'm slow, but it appears to me that one of these things is not like the others.

Edouble
09-25-2013, 04:09 PM
Maybe I'm slow, but it appears to me that one of these things is not like the others.

More head

El_Diablo
09-25-2013, 06:02 PM
Ok, I'll cover that, too. I hope the Trojans are not able to protect their QB and our DL is able to pressure and/or sack him/them with regularity.

Yes, it would be nice to get some penetration.

PDDuke85
09-25-2013, 06:44 PM
Yes, it would be nice to get some penetration.

Trying to rescue this thread. I believe Troy runs an offense similar to Ball State.
(Bless me father for I have sinned...........)

devildeac
09-25-2013, 07:56 PM
Yes, it would be nice to get some penetration.

I considered that choice of words but decided to re-phrase the second part of my sentence. You are certainly correct though because with repeated pressure from both the inside and outside, we can perhaps force their QBs to panic and make a bad toss or three.

Devil in the Blue Dress
09-25-2013, 09:23 PM
It appears the Time Warner is carrying a replay of the Troy at MS State game right now on Fox Sports South.

Bob Green
09-26-2013, 12:03 PM
Here are two excellent Q&A articles on the Duke vs Troy game. One from each perspective:

http://www.dothaneagle.com/blogs/troy_story/

http://bluedevilnation.net/2013/09/know-the-opponent-troy-trojans/

Patrick Cacchio is one of the more knowledgable writers/bloggers covering Duke football.

Bob Green
09-26-2013, 03:20 PM
The opponent changes but the game remains the same. That is why all the things I will be watching for on Saturday are repeats from earlier game threads:

1. Turnover margin

2. Perform on 3rd down on both sides of the ball

3. Pound away with the running game - 200+ yards on the ground - setting up the play action pass/screen pass.

4. Achieve maximum touches for playmaker Jamison Crowder. The defense forcing Troy to punt will be important.

Posting "keys to the game" is fun especially after the game is over when I can go back and checkout how wrong I was. :D I expect the offensive game plan will attempt to emphasize the running game while maintaining balance through involving Jamison Crowder in multiple ways. What's the over/under on how many times he touches the ball? Last week he had 12 touches (7 receptions, 3 punt returns & 2 rushes).

Olympic Fan
09-26-2013, 05:53 PM
Don't know if this is definitive, but I saw the line favored Duke by 11.

The over-under was 67.5 ... after last week (Duke gave up 58; Troy have up 62), I might take the over.

TheDevilMadeMeDoIt
09-26-2013, 05:55 PM
The opponent changes but the game remains the same. That is why all the things I will be watching for on Saturday are repeats from earlier game threads:

1. Turnover margin

2. Perform on 3rd down on both sides of the ball

3. Pound away with the running game - 200+ yards on the ground - setting up the play action pass/screen pass.

4. Achieve maximum touches for playmaker Jamison Crowder. The defense forcing Troy to punt will be important.

Posting "keys to the game" is fun especially after the game is over when I can go back and checkout how wrong I was. :D I expect the offensive game plan will attempt to emphasize the running game while maintaining balance through involving Jamison Crowder in multiple ways. What's the over/under on how many times he touches the ball? Last week he had 12 touches (7 receptions, 3 punt returns & 2 rushes).

I think Brandon Connette will have a great game this weekend. I live over 600 miles from Durham but I got to see the Pitt game. I listened to Wes Chesson on the post game show. Then I watched the game again on ESPN3. I don't think I have ever seen any quarterback make the mistakes Brandon made and then come back out, put it past him and make great plays. Wes made a great comment, that when your defense gives up a lot of scores it puts pressure on the quarterback to force things he shouldn't. I know a lot of people lay most of the blame for the loss on Brandon, but it was more the horrific defense in the first half. Norman, God Bless him, gave up back to back long touchdown passes. Stop either and maybe we win. Then right at the half we get back in the game, and the defense gives up a touchdown as the half ends. But I will credit the defense, they played much better the second half.

I also hope everyone got to see the interview in the locker room with Brandon after the game. He made no excuses, praised good play by Pitt and took blame where appropriate. No wonder Coach C calls this young man not a good person, but a great person. If he continues to figure it out and improve, I predict Boone will have a tough task to win back the starting quarterback job.

After what Miss. State did to Troy I predict we win by 4 touchdowns. Brandon will pass for two and run for the other two, the other 3 or 4 scores will come from our other playmakers.

One other comment sure to stir up a hornet's next. I don't think there were 200 students at the Pitt game. It was truly pathetic. Thank God the band is bigger and better than it has been for some time. The band members cheered and yelled even after the rains came. Come on Duke students get off your asses and go support your team. People claim they love scoring so this team deserves your support. Even in the late 60's and early 70's when I was at Duke most students went to the games. My wife, who is a Carolina grad commented about how apathetic Duke students have become. I don't believe most of the students were in the library last Saturday afternoon. With this week Homecoming I hope more students will support the team. Otherwise, Duke looks like a sorry place on the television when a couple of thousand students want walk a few blocks for free entertainment. This team appears to be pretty resilient, but I am not sure I can say the same for our students. Sorry for the rant, but I was appalled at the student attendance. Maybe we need to bring back a head cheerleader with a microphone and speakers like the old days and have them go knock on dorm doors an hour before the games to get people to walk over to Wade.

jimsumner
09-26-2013, 07:42 PM
Don't know if this is definitive, but I saw the line favored Duke by 11.

The over-under was 67.5 ... after last week (Duke gave up 58; Troy have up 62), I might take the over.

That's the over/under for just the winning team, right?

awhom111
09-26-2013, 09:07 PM
Per Troy, here are the stations on which some Time Warner and Brighthouse subscribers can watch the game:
http://www.troytrojans.com/news/2013/9/25/FB_0925135724.aspx?path=football

Bob Green
09-27-2013, 03:52 PM
The game previews are popping up at all the normal places:

http://www.accsports.com/articles/acc-weekend-preview-sept-27
http://bluedevilnation.net/2013/09/troy-at-duke-game-preview/
http://duke.scout.com/2/1330465.html

Most folks, including myself, expect a Duke victory, but I am a bit anxious due to our defensive woes exposed by Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh. I'm not counting any chickens.

The defensive line absolutely must apply pressure on Troy's passing QB (#6 Corey Robinson) as reports state he is extremely accurate and can pick apart an opponent's secondary. Similarly, they must know when Troy's running QB (#7 Deon Anthony) is in the game.

The following Al Featherston article includes comments on the two Troy QBs:

http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=22672&SPID=1843&DB_LANG=C&DB_OEM_ID=4200&ATCLID=209267617

A key match-up in the game will be CB Ross Cockrell on WR Eric Thomas (#3).

jimsumner
09-28-2013, 02:59 PM
Kelby Brown will not be play v. Troy

riverside6
09-28-2013, 03:07 PM
Live stats and play analysis for Duke/Troy here...

http://www.scacchoops.com/FB_ViewHDGame.asp?hGame=3130

SCMatt33
09-28-2013, 05:09 PM
Looks like the first two weeks were the mirage and the last two weeks were the real Duke Defense. I post this as Troy ties the game at 28 and Duke's defense doesn't even look a bit competitive with Troy's offense. There is still a significant gap in talent and depth between where Duke's defense is and where they need to be if Duke really wants to compete for bowl games on a regular basis.

Though I'd still rather have this than a team with a great D and no offense.

Mabdul Doobakus
09-28-2013, 06:04 PM
I know Connette got banged up, but the play calling here in the 4th quarter has gone uberconservative, and that started even before Connette got hit. This is a very dangerous way to be playing this football game given how porous our defense is.

TKG
09-28-2013, 06:40 PM
Very happy with the win. But we gave up 512 yards and 29 first downs. Our defense is just poor.

-bdbd
09-28-2013, 07:09 PM
Great to have the win. Duke played solid, competent Football. But not really confidence-inspiring given that we needed to rely on a couple of referee calls that weren't "obvious" fouls... I kept waiting for someone to step up and say "I'm going to make sure we don't lose this game." I guess the big sack by our DE late might qualify. But this still seems like a pretty fragile team. Navy didn't look too good today vs Western KY. So there's certainly opportunity.

TKG
09-28-2013, 07:23 PM
Our defense has allowed the following over the last three games:

Georgia Tech: 469 total yards
Pittsburgh: 598 total yards
Troy: 512 total yards

wilko
09-28-2013, 07:26 PM
Our defense has allowed the following over the last three games:

Georgia Tech: 469 total yards
Pittsburgh: 598 total yards
Troy: 512 total yards

AND with all this happening our 3rd string QB is getting the job done. so kudos to him..
The only D in the game was on my hat.

Class of '94
09-28-2013, 07:26 PM
A win is a win and I'll take anyway Duke can get it. Duke needs to beat Navy and I'm glad the team has a bye so that they can regroup, heal and hopefully come out better on D against Navy.

That being said, the glass half-full perspective on our D is they they allowed 21 pts in the first half but held Troy to 10 pts in the second half. That shows improvement although I would say the D may have benefited from some timely holding calls on the offense of Troy. However, the D will have to play better going into Duke's remaining ACC schedule to give the team the wins it need to go to another bowl game. My concern is that it's looking more likely that Duke's offense will have to put up a lot of points in order for the team to win games; and I'm not sure they can do that against the remaining ACC teams on their schedule (with the possible exception of Wake).

gep
09-28-2013, 07:33 PM
That being said, the glass half-full perspective on our D is they they allowed 21 pts in the first half but held Troy to 10 pts in the second half. That shows improvement although I would say the D may have benefited from some timely holding calls on the offense of Troy. However, the D will have to play better going into Duke's remaining ACC schedule to give the team the wins it need to go to another bowl game. My concern is that it's looking more likely that Duke's offense will have to put up a lot of points in order for the team to win games; and I'm not sure they can do that against the remaining ACC teams on their schedule (with the possible exception of Wake).

I understand that... but isn't the holding calls on Troy's offense at least somewhat related to good defense? (yes, my glass is more than half-full) After all... offensive holding is not necessary if the defense was really that bad, slow, etc

TKG
09-28-2013, 07:39 PM
I am trying to be a glass half-full kind of guy but in looking a little deeper into the total yard figures both our rushing defense and our passing defense have been shredded.

Tech had 344 rushing yards
Pitt had 424 passing yards
Troy had 362 passing yards

Navy may not have the athletes Tech does, but I am concerned about our ability to defend the option; particularly if we cannot contain the edge.

wilko
09-28-2013, 07:42 PM
I understand that... but isn't the holding calls on Troy's offense at least somewhat related to good defense? (yes, my glass is more than half-full) After all... offensive holding is not necessary if the defense was really that bad, slow, etc

From where I sat, It was difficult to see he where was overly pressured or hurried into scrambles or bad passes.
He had time to find his receivers and our D was decent at tackling once the catch was made, but not great at breaking up the completion attempt in the 1st place.. Run D was reasonably stout.

As the game was winding down I had hoped we would get more than a 7pt differential. I was nervous to even GIVE Troy the ball back with anytime on the clock, knowing that they could tie it...

CDu
09-28-2013, 08:12 PM
Well, the good news is that we survived and kept our bowl hopes alive. The bad news is that we struggled to stop a team that lost 62-7 last week to Mississippi State and 41-34 to Arkansas State.

The defense was just awful. Really, really awful. Thankfully, they stiffened down the stretch when our offense started to sputter.

Whew. Now, at least we have a week off to heal, regroup, and prepare to take on Navy. I think that game is a virtual must win game for us to make it to another bowl game this year. Va Tech is looking better all of a sudden, and Miami is just much better than us. We don't want to get stuck in a situation where we need to win 3 of 4 against @UVa, NC State, @Wake, and @UNC. Winning 2 of 4 will be tough enough.

uh_no
09-28-2013, 08:25 PM
I am trying to be a glass half-full kind of guy but in looking a little deeper into the total yard figures both our rushing defense and our passing defense have been shredded.

Tech had 344 rushing yards
Pitt had 424 passing yards
Troy had 362 passing yards

Navy may not have the athletes Tech does, but I am concerned about our ability to defend the option; particularly if we cannot contain the edge.

i share your opinion. We had trouble contianing the edge today against troy....they would beat 2-3 guys to the outside for several yards

devildeac
09-28-2013, 09:54 PM
Well, the good news is that we survived and kept our bowl hopes alive. The bad news is that we struggled to stop a team that lost 62-7 last week to Mississippi State and 41-34 to Arkansas State.

The defense was just awful. Really, really awful. Thankfully, they stiffened down the stretch when our offense started to sputter.

Whew. Now, at least we have a week off to heal, regroup, and prepare to take on Navy. I think that game is a virtual must win game for us to make it to another bowl game this year. Va Tech is looking better all of a sudden, and Miami is just much better than us. We don't want to get stuck in a situation where we need to win 3 of 4 against @UVa, NC State, @Wake, and @UNC. Winning 2 of 4 will be tough enough.

Ooooh, I just figured out how we can win our last game of the season. We can wear our purple and gold away unis:rolleyes:;).

throatybeard
09-28-2013, 09:56 PM
Well, the good news is that we survived and kept our bowl hopes alive. The bad news is that we struggled to stop a team that lost 62-7 last week to Mississippi State and 41-34 to Arkansas State.

Speaking of Arkansas State, they are leading alleged SEC school Missouri in the third quarter. In Columbia.

A week after allowing Duke 55 points, Pittsburgh gave up just 3 to Virginia. But they only scored 14 themselves.

ForkFondler
09-28-2013, 10:37 PM
The defense was just awful. Really, really awful. Thankfully, they stiffened down the stretch when our offense started to sputter.

I'm still trying to figure out how the first half turned into a second half defensive struggle. Did K show 'em stall ball?

Son of Jarhead
09-29-2013, 12:33 AM
Ooooh, I just figured out how we can win our last game of the season. We can wear our purple and gold away unis:rolleyes:;).

The Pirates were wearing all black when they put that beating on the heels.... I'm thinking we have all black ourselves. Anything for an advantage!

Glad we came out with a win today, but it was too close for my comfort. We looked really good offensively in the first half and our D did better in the second half. I don't know what kind of impact his absence had, but it is worth noting that our best linebacker, Kelby Brown, didn't play. He typically makes a lot of plays for us. He was tied with safety Jeremy Cash for team lead with 37 tackles before today's game (Cash had 14 today). Also, safety Dwayne Norman didn't play, either, and he is 5th on the team with 27 tackles. Hopefully, our young guys will keep getting better, and we can get healthy, and then we can play better and win games down the stretch. Go Duke!

roywhite
09-29-2013, 07:45 AM
Against both Pitt and Troy, the Duke defense did significantly better in the second half. Not a great performance overall, but looks like halftime adjustments and level of conditioning are a plus.

OldPhiKap
09-29-2013, 08:14 AM
We did what we had to do, good job guys.

Now, beat Navy.

Bob Green
09-29-2013, 08:37 AM
We did what we had to do, good job guys.

Now, beat Navy.

I agree! As ugly as things were at times, the end result is another check in the win column. The bye week comes at an opportune time as we need to heal up and prepare for another go at the triple option, spread option, flexbone offense Navy runs.

Kelby Brown did not play yesterday due to injury. Kyler Brown left for the locker room before halftime and did not see the field in the 2nd half. Our linebackers need the bye week. I was impressed with David Helton yesterday as he was aggressive defending short passes. A quick glance at the box score this morning reveals Helton was the leading tackler with 15.

sagegrouse
09-29-2013, 08:47 AM
Against both Pitt and Troy, the Duke defense did significantly better in the second half. Not a great performance overall, but looks like halftime adjustments and level of conditioning are a plus.

Does Duke do relatively better in the second half of games? Here's the data on points by quarter from the first five games:



PERIOD 1 2 3 4 TOT
OPP-T 37 52 28 24 141
DUK-T 49 49 35 47 180

OPP-T 26% 37% 20% 17% 100%
DUK-T 27% 27% 19% 26% 100%


The answer is clearly "yes." Opponents have only scored 37% of their points in the 2nd half versus 60% in the first half. I also checked the scores in blowouts, since often the winner eases up in the 2nd half. The only blowout by an opponent was GT and omitting that game makes no difference at all in the distribution.

On our side of the ball, Duke has scored 45% of its points in the 2nd half. If the NCCU blowout is omitted, where Duke clearly eased up in the fourth quarter, Duke's 2nd half total rises to 48% -- just about equal scoring in both halves.

So, conditioning seems to work in Duke's favor as the game progresses.

What I am looking for, in addition, is a huge improvement in the second half of the SEASON, not just the GAME. I know our schedule is tougher at the end of the season, but IMHO (where the H is silent), our defense has basically fallen apart after November 1. We gotta have some wins in the last four games this year: State (H), Miami (H), Wake (A), and UNC (A). All are potentially winnable.

sagegrouse

devildeac
09-29-2013, 09:23 AM
Anunike's tackle blowing up their end around/reverse/whatever-play-it-was on 1st and 20 in the 4th quarter for a 7 yard loss was huge.

Devil in the Blue Dress
09-29-2013, 10:34 AM
Ooooh, I just figured out how we can win our last game of the season. We can wear our purple and gold away unis:rolleyes:;).
The pattern is that UNC gets beaten this year by any school with Carolina in the name.:cool:

jimsumner
09-29-2013, 11:49 AM
The pattern is that UNC gets beaten this year by any school with Carolina in the name.:cool:

Maybe Duke should change its name to Duke in Carolina.

Devil in the Blue Dress
09-29-2013, 12:26 PM
Maybe Duke should change its name to Duke in Carolina.
How about Duke of Carolina?

uh_no
09-29-2013, 12:32 PM
Maybe Duke should change its name to Duke in Carolina.

i suppose we could change it from University of New Jersey at Durham, to at Carolina....

OZZIE4DUKE
09-29-2013, 01:05 PM
Maybe Duke should change its name to Duke in Carolina.


i suppose we could change it from University of New Jersey at Durham, to at Carolina....
Duke. THE University of north carolina.

Olympic Fan
09-29-2013, 01:13 PM
Duke. THE University of north carolina.

Well, we ARE the defending state champions.

devildeac
09-29-2013, 03:11 PM
The pattern is that UNC gets beaten this year by any school with Carolina in the name.:cool:


Maybe Duke should change its name to Duke in Carolina.


How about Duke of Carolina?

Or, like the old bumper sticker said: Duke, THE University of North Carolina:D.

Edit: OZZIE beat me to it without me checking the rest of the thread. I'll take credit for remembering the bumper sticker part of it:o.

devildeac
09-29-2013, 03:42 PM
Well, the good news is that we survived and kept our bowl hopes alive. The bad news is that we struggled to stop a team that lost 62-7 last week to Mississippi State and 41-34 to Arkansas State.

The defense was just awful. Really, really awful. Thankfully, they stiffened down the stretch when our offense started to sputter.

Whew. Now, at least we have a week off to heal, regroup, and prepare to take on Navy. I think that game is a virtual must win game for us to make it to another bowl game this year. Va Tech is looking better all of a sudden, and Miami is just much better than us. We don't want to get stuck in a situation where we need to win 3 of 4 against @UVa, NC State, @Wake, and @UNC. Winning 2 of 4 will be tough enough.

I was pretty p*ssed with about 9 minutes to go in the third quarter, IIRC, when Troy tied the game at 28-28 and my son-in-law informed me that Troy had ~350 yards total offense and we had ~400 and they had us by about 20:30-15:30 in ToP. It wasn't until last PM that I read a game preview in the Raleigh N&O and they quoted that Troy scored 48 against the University of Tennessee last year and gained over 700 yards in that game and still lost! Take a look at these stats: http://www.utsports.com/sports/m-footbl/stats/2012-2013/ut1103.html

I'm also glad the D made some adjustments and we held on for the win.

Devil549
09-29-2013, 08:23 PM
A win is a win and IF we win 6 or more I think we all will not be saying "we only beat Troy by 7". I also was impressed with Troy's speed as they usually have some SEC transfers.

roywhite
09-29-2013, 10:54 PM
Just looking at some national stats and Jamison Crowder is having quite a year:

6th in the country in receiving yards with 530 yards in 5 games
6th in the country in avg. punt return yards with 19.3 yards per return (and 2 TD's)
9th in the country in all-purpose yards with 169.6 yards per game

What a playmaker he has become.

uh_no
09-30-2013, 12:09 AM
A win is a win and IF we win 6 or more I think we all will not be saying "we only beat Troy by 7". I also was impressed with Troy's speed as they usually have some SEC transfers.

I'm sure that's exactly what cut told the team......./sarcasm

i'm going to guess the team is working on things that went wrong this week, and there's no reason posters can't be critical as well...wins are nice....but wins where we show improvement are better....and there wasn't a whole lot of improvement over the previous weeks, IMO. Some really bright spots, but there were against pitt...we still couldn't stop them for much of the game, and the offense was incredibly inconsistent...we got beat to the outside, and NAVY is going to kill us like GT did if we can't solve that.

Highlander
09-30-2013, 08:42 AM
I'm sure that's exactly what cut told the team......./sarcasm

i'm going to guess the team is working on things that went wrong this week, and there's no reason posters can't be critical as well...wins are nice....but wins where we show improvement are better....and there wasn't a whole lot of improvement over the previous weeks, IMO. Some really bright spots, but there were against pitt...we still couldn't stop them for much of the game, and the offense was incredibly inconsistent...we got beat to the outside, and NAVY is going to kill us like GT did if we can't solve that.

I was only able to watch the second half, but here are my thoughts:

Defense got shredded to open the second half. We looked clueless.
We were fortunate to answer after converting several third and longs.
A bit too many unforced errors while playing with a lead for me (e.g. two dropped handoffs, some missed slants, etc.)
Defense did toughen up and hold Troy as they got desparate.
Cut played the last two minutes about as well as possible. Forced Troy to burn all their timeouts, hit a FG to make it a 7 point lead, then gave them the ball with less than 45 seconds and no timeouts. He could have thrown it on third and 5, but if he missed he'd have given Troy an extra 30 seconds to play with. Decent tradeoff IMO.
In pursuit, our linebackers looked a couple of steps slow. Troy just flat ran past them on numerous occasions. Watch the TD that was called back for an example of this.
Connette has more than held his own filling in for Boone. We are very lucky to have such a capable backup.


Overall, this is EXACTLY the type of game that "old Duke" would have lost in years past. The fact that Cutcliffe wins his fair share of the close ones should not be overlooked, and I give him immense credit for it. My only complaint on the game was the speed of our defense. For a coach who claims to recruit speed over size, I didn't see it. Unfortunately, it is hard to coach or develop speed during the season, so I think this is a trend that will continue.

Navy is another "must win" type of game for our bowl hopes. We still have very little margin for error in that department, but 3-2 at the bye is right on schedule for us. 4-1 would have been nice, but I don't think anyone (except Ozzie) had us any better than that.

loran16
09-30-2013, 10:49 AM
Navy is another "must win" type of game for our bowl hopes. We still have very little margin for error in that department, but 3-2 at the bye is right on schedule for us. 4-1 would have been nice, but I don't think anyone (except Ozzie) had us any better than that.

I mean its not terrible, but its right on schedule only if your expectations were prior to last season. Remember, that if we beat Navy and Wake - the two games we should be favorites in - we'll still only have 5 wins while being decent dogs in every game the rest of the way. Some games are winnable, but this isn't exactly a strong way to get 6-6. And neither Wake nor Navy are auto-wins: god knows we have issues guarding the option.

Which is fine in a sense - given Boone's going down and turnover from last year, 5-7 would be a fine season. But if you were expecting Duke under Cut to have taken a major step forward as an annual bowl team, this isn't necessarily showing it (for the obvious defensive reasons).

jimsumner
09-30-2013, 10:52 AM
I was only able to watch the second half, but here are my thoughts:

Defense got shredded to open the second half. We looked clueless.
We were fortunate to answer after converting several third and longs.
A bit too many unforced errors while playing with a lead for me (e.g. two dropped handoffs, some missed slants, etc.)
Defense did toughen up and hold Troy as they got desparate.
Cut played the last two minutes about as well as possible. Forced Troy to burn all their timeouts, hit a FG to make it a 7 point lead, then gave them the ball with less than 45 seconds and no timeouts. He could have thrown it on third and 5, but if he missed he'd have given Troy an extra 30 seconds to play with. Decent tradeoff IMO.
In pursuit, our linebackers looked a couple of steps slow. Troy just flat ran past them on numerous occasions. Watch the TD that was called back for an example of this.
Connette has more than held his own filling in for Boone. We are very lucky to have such a capable backup.


Overall, this is EXACTLY the type of game that "old Duke" would have lost in years past. The fact that Cutcliffe wins his fair share of the close ones should not be overlooked, and I give him immense credit for it. My only complaint on the game was the speed of our defense. For a coach who claims to recruit speed over size, I didn't see it. Unfortunately, it is hard to coach or develop speed during the season, so I think this is a trend that will continue.

Navy is another "must win" type of game for our bowl hopes. We still have very little margin for error in that department, but 3-2 at the bye is right on schedule for us. 4-1 would have been nice, but I don't think anyone (except Ozzie) had us any better than that.

Keep in mind that Duke played much of the second half with true freshmen Borders, Fields and Singleton in the secondary and redshirt freshman Deion Williams at LB. So at least some of that lack of speed may be a result of indecision based on inexperience. Williams in particular played a lot more than he played prior and with both Browns and France banged up, Duke was pretty much down to its only two healthy linebackers, at least without going really deep into the DNP-CD list.

Cut said that Williams' conditioning needs to improve. So, that also could be a factor. Tired players aren't quick players.

Don't get me wrong. Without Kelby Brown, Duke's linebacking corps is, how should I put this politely, not a team strength, although Helton was pretty solid Saturday. But getting some guys healthy and getting some of the newbies some hard-earned experience should result in some improvement down the stretch.

ChillinDuke
09-30-2013, 12:11 PM
I mean its not terrible, but its right on schedule only if your expectations were prior to last season. Remember, that if we beat Navy and Wake - the two games we should be favorites in - we'll still only have 5 wins while being decent dogs in every game the rest of the way. Some games are winnable, but this isn't exactly a strong way to get 6-6. And neither Wake nor Navy are auto-wins: god knows we have issues guarding the option.

Which is fine in a sense - given Boone's going down and turnover from last year, 5-7 would be a fine season. But if you were expecting Duke under Cut to have taken a major step forward as an annual bowl team, this isn't necessarily showing it (for the obvious defensive reasons).

On the football side of this board, I tend to share your sentiments and perceived frustration. It hasn't been pretty, and I admit we are underperforming my expectations to this point.

I will point out, that while I would never call any Duke Football game an auto-win, Wake is in the next closest category. If you follow Sagarin (which I don't, but I couldn't think of a better statistical ranking system to use) Wake is #104. For comparison purposes:

Duke: #79
NC Central (W): #195
Memphis (W): #100
Ga Tech (L): #34
Pitt (L): #63
Troy (W): #125

So, I guess I'm just saying that we are sort of beating who we should beat and losing to who we should lose to (granted, by this one metric that I have no real opinion on other than I use him in basketball as a reference point). Again, not pretty. But within the realm of reasonable expectations.

Also - Navy is currently ranked #70. So that may be a tougher one than I was thinking. Aw heck, while I'm at it:
Virginia: #78
Virginia Tech: #24 (wow. how?)
NC State: #69
Miami: #22
UNC: #75

Lot of coin flips in that group. Who's feeling lucky? Where's Ozzie?

- Chillin

matt1
09-30-2013, 02:20 PM
I was only able to watch the second half, but here are my thoughts:

Defense got shredded to open the second half. We looked clueless.
We were fortunate to answer after converting several third and longs.
A bit too many unforced errors while playing with a lead for me (e.g. two dropped handoffs, some missed slants, etc.)
Defense did toughen up and hold Troy as they got desparate.
Cut played the last two minutes about as well as possible. Forced Troy to burn all their timeouts, hit a FG to make it a 7 point lead, then gave them the ball with less than 45 seconds and no timeouts. He could have thrown it on third and 5, but if he missed he'd have given Troy an extra 30 seconds to play with. Decent tradeoff IMO.
In pursuit, our linebackers looked a couple of steps slow. Troy just flat ran past them on numerous occasions. Watch the TD that was called back for an example of this.
Connette has more than held his own filling in for Boone. We are very lucky to have such a capable backup.


Overall, this is EXACTLY the type of game that "old Duke" would have lost in years past. The fact that Cutcliffe wins his fair share of the close ones should not be overlooked, and I give him immense credit for it. My only complaint on the game was the speed of our defense. For a coach who claims to recruit speed over size, I didn't see it. Unfortunately, it is hard to coach or develop speed during the season, so I think this is a trend that will continue.

Navy is another "must win" type of game for our bowl hopes. We still have very little margin for error in that department, but 3-2 at the bye is right on schedule for us. 4-1 would have been nice, but I don't think anyone (except Ozzie) had us any better than that.

I had us 4-1 at this point, but I expected us to go 8-4. I think that we win against Navy, Wake, UVa, and maybe Carolina or State, giving us a 6-6 or 7-5 record. I think that this Navy game will be very important towards our getting 6 wins.

Highlander
09-30-2013, 03:51 PM
I mean its not terrible, but its right on schedule only if your expectations were prior to last season. Remember, that if we beat Navy and Wake - the two games we should be favorites in - we'll still only have 5 wins while being decent dogs in every game the rest of the way. Some games are winnable, but this isn't exactly a strong way to get 6-6. And neither Wake nor Navy are auto-wins: god knows we have issues guarding the option.

Which is fine in a sense - given Boone's going down and turnover from last year, 5-7 would be a fine season. But if you were expecting Duke under Cut to have taken a major step forward as an annual bowl team, this isn't necessarily showing it (for the obvious defensive reasons).

I wasn't expecting a major step forward, and even if I did, Boone's injury pretty much killed any slim chance we may have had. I'm in the camp of expecting Duke to regularly have a shot at 5-7 wins per year, with 7 being the upper end of the spectrum. That means we win the games we're supposed to win and maybe sneak up on 1-2 teams as an underdog. I just don't see us bringing in the type of talent to be a perennial 8-9 win/year team right now. Sure we could one day catch lightning in a bottle a la Wake Forest, but a lot of things would have to break our way. Right now I'm enjoying us beating teams like Troy instead of losing to teams like Richmond.

I still think a bowl game is an uphill battle (and it will be for the forseeable future), but going to two (mediocre) bowls in two years is a very good achievement for Duke at this point, especially without your starting QB for much of the year.

I think we agree, I'm just a glass half full kinda guy.

BigWayne
09-30-2013, 10:24 PM
On the football side of this board, I tend to share your sentiments and perceived frustration. It hasn't been pretty, and I admit we are underperforming my expectations to this point.

I will point out, that while I would never call any Duke Football game an auto-win, Wake is in the next closest category. If you follow Sagarin (which I don't, but I couldn't think of a better statistical ranking system to use) Wake is #104. For comparison purposes:

Duke: #79
NC Central (W): #195
Memphis (W): #100
Ga Tech (L): #34
Pitt (L): #63
Troy (W): #125

So, I guess I'm just saying that we are sort of beating who we should beat and losing to who we should lose to (granted, by this one metric that I have no real opinion on other than I use him in basketball as a reference point). Again, not pretty. But within the realm of reasonable expectations.

Also - Navy is currently ranked #70. So that may be a tougher one than I was thinking. Aw heck, while I'm at it:
Virginia: #78
Virginia Tech: #24 (wow. how?)
NC State: #69
Miami: #22
UNC: #75

Lot of coin flips in that group. Who's feeling lucky? Where's Ozzie?

- Chillin

With the 4 tossups, we should end up anywhere from 4-9 to 8-4. My expectation is that we win the ones at home and lose on the road and end up 6-6. Having a Duke team that can deliver to the expected numbers and get to 6-6 would be a real positive. Getting to 7 or 8 wins will be an outstanding accomplishment for this team and something to be proud of. My biggest worry is injuries against Miami and VT that hurt the chances for the following weeks vs. State and Wake.

Bob Green
10-01-2013, 05:13 AM
With the 4 tossups, we should end up anywhere from 4-9 to 8-4. My expectation is that we win the ones at home and lose on the road and end up 6-6.

Virginia, Wake Forest and Carolina are road games we need to win. Navy and State are home games we need to win. That would have us end up at 8-4, which is probably better than we actually achieve, but that plan provides wiggle room. It is straight forward on paper (or in message board discussions), now the team has to go on the field and perform. It is exciting to be competitive again.

Duvall
10-01-2013, 12:33 PM
Beat Navy? (http://www.navysports.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/100113aac.html)


As a result of the government shutdown, the Department of Defense has suspended all intercollegiate athletic competitions at the Service Academies.

The Naval Academy will cancel contests as appropriate and notification on Saturday's football game against Air Force will be made public prior to 12 noon on Thursday.

I imagine things will be resolved by next Thursday, though.

sagegrouse
10-01-2013, 12:37 PM
Beat Navy? (http://www.navysports.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/100113aac.html)



I imagine things will resolved by next Thursday, though.

If the Middies are "no-shows" in Durham October 12, does it count as a win?

sagegrouse

Duvall
10-01-2013, 12:46 PM
If the Middies are "no-shows" in Durham October 12, does it count as a win?

sagegrouse

I don't think so, though Bylaw 18.7.2.2 is unclear. An opponent's forfeit due to an NCAA violation would *not* count as a win towards bowl eligibility, but I don't know about a forfeit due to an inability to travel. My guess is that Duke just plays an eleven-game schedule.

loran16
10-01-2013, 12:56 PM
On the football side of this board, I tend to share your sentiments and perceived frustration. It hasn't been pretty, and I admit we are underperforming my expectations to this point.

I will point out, that while I would never call any Duke Football game an auto-win, Wake is in the next closest category. If you follow Sagarin (which I don't, but I couldn't think of a better statistical ranking system to use) Wake is #104. For comparison purposes:

Duke: #79
NC Central (W): #195
Memphis (W): #100
Ga Tech (L): #34
Pitt (L): #63
Troy (W): #125

So, I guess I'm just saying that we are sort of beating who we should beat and losing to who we should lose to (granted, by this one metric that I have no real opinion on other than I use him in basketball as a reference point). Again, not pretty. But within the realm of reasonable expectations.

Also - Navy is currently ranked #70. So that may be a tougher one than I was thinking. Aw heck, while I'm at it:
Virginia: #78
Virginia Tech: #24 (wow. how?)
NC State: #69
Miami: #22
UNC: #75

Lot of coin flips in that group. Who's feeling lucky? Where's Ozzie?

- Chillin

Worth remembering the value of home field. Using Sagarin's RATING, we get expected lines of:
DUKE -1 Navy
UVA -4 Duke
VATECH -17 Duke
DUKE -1 State
Miami -12 Duke
Duke -2 WAKE
UNC -5 Duke

So Duke is a favorite over 3 teams remaining, but small favorites (Wake is on the road).

If we use Sagarin's Predictor, which he likes as a better method of prediction:
DUKE -1 Navy
UVA -1 Duke
VATECH -15 Duke
DUKE (EVEN) State
Miami -7 Duke
Duke -5 WAKE
UNC -5 Duke

So Suddenly Duke is favorites in only 2 games, although Wake suddenly becomes a game Duke would be surprising to lose in while UVA becomes a tight game (NC State also changes to a pickem).

But again, this also basically points to how weak our schedule this year as opposed to our strength.