Duke football notes, 9-3-13

[jimsumner]

Cutcliffe said Duke looked as good on film as it looked Saturday afternoon.

But he did say there were some areas of concern.
Duke should have forced four turnovers. Only forced two. Need to take better advantage of opportunities.
Duke needs to do a better job of not allowing athletes to get outside.
Duke needs to block better on the perimeter. Lost some chances for big gainers.
Duke needs to sustain blocks longer and better. Too many NCCU players made tackles after being knocked down early but getting back up.

Cut detected a decline in intensity in the second half. Says he doesn’t believe in starting the second half 0-0. Says, if you’re up 28-0, you need to keep doing what got you there. Build on it. “Good teams smell an opportunity. I wasn’t totally pleased with that. I thought there were some opportunities.”

Much praise for Boone and Connette. Said Connette had a great practice this Tuesday. “Backyard California football.”

Said Powell was definitely in the RB rotation, which is four-deep for the foreseeable future. Duke is committed to the run this season. Cut compared it to body blows in boxing in having a cumulative impact on the opposition. Also said that Memphis DL is a strength.

Much praise for Braxton Deaver and Kelby Brown, playing first game since 2011 injuries. Neither seems to have any adverse impacts.

Jeremy Cash, also playing first game since 2011, brought energy to defense and was very good against the run. But he “almost got burned in coverage. He knows he has work to do.”

Optimistic that C.J. France will be back Saturday.

Duke is playing its second game, while Memphis is playing its opener. I asked Kenny Anunike if this was an advantage or disadvantage. “I think it is a slight advantage on our part. We’ve got one game under our belt, got the rust knocked off. You can’t emulate game speed in practice. It’s not physically possible. We’ve gelled, we know what we’re doing, we’ve been practicing all summer and we have a game under our belts. But you still have to go out and play.”

Cut said that any advantages of having a game under your belt should play out early. “It takes a little while to adjust to the speed of the game.” Duke wants to start strong, keep Memphis back on their heels and take the crowd out of the game. He’s concerned by not having game film of this year’s Memphis team. Says Duke is looking at film from late in their 2012 season, when Memphis was playing better.

Anunike says Duke has to ignore Memphis' recent struggles. "You don’t want to play too much into that. That’s how you can get beat, really easy. Memphis plays hard. They’ll come out and try to hit us in the mouth. We have to be able to respond.”

Duke had a good practice this morning under hot, humid conditions. Duke expects comparable conditions at Memphis. Conditioning will be important.

[Devil in the Blue Dress]

Thank you, Jim. Thorough and insightful report covering a variety of points and issues.:cool:

[OldPhiKap]

I agree with DiBD, as usual. Thanks for the great report, Jim.

Part of growing as a team is winning road games when you're favored. It is not a position we have found ourselves in on a repeated basis to date, although I hope that is changing. But part of getting there is taking care of business on the road. This should be a good measuring stick of where we are.

Play hard, play smart, no turnovers!

[loran16]

Said Powell was definitely in the RB rotation, which is four-deep for the foreseeable future. Duke is committed to the run this season. Cut compared it to body blows in boxing in having a cumulative impact on the opposition.

Ugh. Except using body blows doesn't prevent you from using your other punches at any moment, whereas Duke generally last week played with one RB available per play.

Again, we have clear evidence that Juwan is at best the #3 most effective back right now (you know, last year's performance, or the years prior when snead was a Frosh), if we assume no improvement from Shaq Powell. I hope Cut doesn't plan on starting him most games, because it makes no sense.

There's a reason why pro teams don't play 4 RBs...and most don't play more than 2. There's making sure your guys are restless and then there's playing inferior guys because you've got more guys. Sigh, I'm going to beat this horse every week aren't I....

--------------------

And as noted in the Memphis game thread, Memphis "played better" against 3 teams that managed a combined 5 wins last year (Ranked 142, 155, and 167 by Sagarin, worse than any team Duke played last year other than Central). They weren't really playing that much better. They were just playing trash.

[OldPhiKap]

Ugh. Except using body blows doesn't prevent you from using your other punches at any moment, whereas Duke generally last week played with one RB available per play.

Again, we have clear evidence that Juwan is at best the #3 most effective back right now (you know, last year's performance, or the years prior when snead was a Frosh), if we assume no improvement from Shaq Powell. I hope Cut doesn't plan on starting him most games, because it makes no sense.

There's a reason why pro teams don't play 4 RBs...and most don't play more than 2. There's making sure your guys are restless and then there's playing inferior guys because you've got more guys. Sigh, I'm going to beat this horse every week aren't I....



I just don't see the angst about having too many running backs. Our averages Saturday:

Jela Duncan 6.9 yards/carry
Josh Snead 6.6 ypc
Shaquille Powell 5.2 ypc
Juwan Thompson 5.0 ypc

Perhaps fresh legs serve well, and different looks make it harder on the defense. And you might as well play them all while you have them, odds are (unfortunately) that there will be games where one or more are unavailable. I would rather that they all be comfortable stepping up, having experienced games throughout the year.

Having said that, like with K, the bench probably shortens a bit when you get to better competition.

As far as what the professionals do, they don't play two quarterbacks either. For better or worse, Cut and Roper have decided that the best offense is one with fresh legs and multiple appearances. I'm okay with it.

[Bob Green]

Sigh, I'm going to beat this horse every week aren't I....

The whole board is confident you are! :D Seriously, Shaq Powell is a talented running back.

[Dev11]

Also consider that an NFL team has 53 players, while a college team has over 80 on scholarship (I don't know the exact number, admittedly). Against NC Central, we can afford to throw all of the running backs out there and not feel like we're giving up a lot by giving some carries to less able players.

Cash may have improvements to make, but it felt like he was everywhere on Saturday. Given how many freshman DBs are on the depth chart, Cash was a HUGE get.

I'm looking forward to the offense continuing to look dynamic and variable, and to the defense getting tougher. The defensive front was pretty good on Saturday, and we're definitely lucky to have Kenny Anunike back not only for his leadership, but also his play.

[Duvall]

Again, we have clear evidence that Juwan is at best the #3 most effective back right now (you know, last year's performance, or the years prior when snead was a Frosh), if we assume no improvement from Shaq Powell. I hope Cut doesn't plan on starting him most games, because it makes no sense.

What is the clear evidence that Thompson is "at best" Duke's third most effective back?


There's a reason why pro teams don't play 4 RBs...and most don't play more than 2. There's making sure your guys are restless and then there's playing inferior guys because you've got more guys.

Why is it relevant what pro teams do? Shouldn't we look at what successful college teams do? That seems far more relevant, and knowable.

[Wander]

What is the clear evidence that Thompson is "at best" Duke's third most effective back?


Well, Duncan and Snead were both better last year. I agree Thompson is the 3rd best back, but I wouldn't worry too much about the fact that he played that much in a 45-0 blowout in the first game of the season, despite what Cut said about the 4 deep rotation.

[Devil in the Blue Dress]

In any discussion of depth, I'll take Nick Saban's model over any armchair coach's theories.;)

[OldPhiKap]

In any discussion of depth, I'll take Nick Saban's model over any armchair coach's theories.;)

I seriously thought that I'd never see the day where we counted "too much depth" as a problem for Duke football.

Geesh.

[Duvall]

Well, Duncan and Snead were both better last year.

Yards per carry last season: Duncan 5.1, Snead 5.0, Thompson 4.7. Throw in receiving and pass protection and the question gets a lot less clear. Certainly isn't clear enough to warrant whining about an equal timeshare.

[Dev11]

Certainly isn't clear enough to warrant whining about an equal timeshare.

...in what amounted to an exhibition game.

Let's see how the rotation looks against the slightly better opponents coming the next few weeks in Memphis, GT, and Pitt.

[chrishoke]

"Optimistic that C.J. France will be back Saturday."

This is great news!

[Wander]

Yards per carry last season: Duncan 5.1, Snead 5.0, Thompson 4.7. Throw in receiving and pass protection and the question gets a lot less clear. Certainly isn't clear enough to warrant whining about an equal timeshare.

Well, 0.3 yards is probably significant at that sample size. But more telling I think is that Cut gave more carries to Duncan and Snead last year, so he'd probably agree that they were better last year. I agree it's not worth whining about based off one game against inferior competition, but I do think Thompson should be behind Duncan and Snead in general.

[Des Esseintes]

Well, 0.3 yards is probably significant at that sample size. But more telling I think is that Cut gave more carries to Duncan and Snead last year, so he'd probably agree that they were better last year. I agree it's not worth whining about based off one game against inferior competition, but I do think Thompson should be behind Duncan and Snead in general.

It's probably not (http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9559809/bill-barnwell-puts-2013-minnesota-vikings-numbers-test). The linked analysis discusses the likelihood of Adrian Peterson having as successful a season this year as last. One of the points the author Barnwell makes is that it's basically impossible that AP will hit for 6.0+ yards/carry again. In fact, 5.0+ yards/carry are pretty unlikely. Serious regression to the mean. There's just a lot of annual fluctuation in rushing averages, even at the 300+ carry level, of which no Duke RB from last season came within a country mile.

And as for playing time, a sophomore Miles Plumlee started the 2010 season ahead of Zoubek, and by season's end, that had flipped. Everything is in motion when you're following the progress of 20-year-olds.

[Duvall]

Well, 0.3 yards is probably significant at that sample size. But more telling I think is that Cut gave more carries to Duncan and Snead last year, so he'd probably agree that they were better last year. I agree it's not worth whining about based off one game against inferior competition, but I do think Thompson should be behind Duncan and Snead in general.

Well, the carries are a bit skewed by the time Thompson missed after the dirty hit at FSU, but sure.

[Newton_14]

Ugh. Except using body blows doesn't prevent you from using your other punches at any moment, whereas Duke generally last week played with one RB available per play.

Again, we have clear evidence that Juwan is at best the #3 most effective back right now (you know, last year's performance, or the years prior when snead was a Frosh), if we assume no improvement from Shaq Powell. I hope Cut doesn't plan on starting him most games, because it makes no sense.

There's a reason why pro teams don't play 4 RBs...and most don't play more than 2. There's making sure your guys are restless and then there's playing inferior guys because you've got more guys. Sigh, I'm going to beat this horse every week aren't I....

--------------------

And as noted in the Memphis game thread, Memphis "played better" against 3 teams that managed a combined 5 wins last year (Ranked 142, 155, and 167 by Sagarin, worse than any team Duke played last year other than Central). They weren't really playing that much better. They were just playing trash.

Sorry but disagree. As Cut stated on his radio show today we have four No 1 running backs. All four are deserving to play and all four bring something different. Juwan said as much himself on the Duke FB report last week. Juwan is the Sr Leader with the most experience, knows the system better, is the best at catching passes out of the backfield, and sets the tone for the other guys. Snead is the fastest, and best breakaway talent. Duncan is the shiftiest (and showed this Sat), best at making other guys miss. Powell is the strongest, and best at running through guys and breaking tackles. All four bring something to the table. Cut said tonight that if only two of them were good enough to play then only 2 of them would play. They have no ego's and support each other well. No pouting. All 4 guys averaged over 5 yards per carry against Central.

It's going to take a toll on defenses when we keep running a fresh RB in there all game that is good enough to make plays. I used to be in the camp that Snead should start over Juwan, but Juwan has made a believer out of me. He is better than you give him credit for. I still love Snead but I like what the other 3 guys bring to the table. We are loaded at RB and at Receiver. That's a good thing not a bad thing.

[OldPhiKap]

Sorry but disagree. As Cut stated on his radio show today we have four No 1 running backs. All four are deserving to play and all four bring something different. Juwan said as much himself on the Duke FB report last week. Juwan is the Sr Leader with the most experience, knows the system better, is the best at catching passes out of the backfield, and sets the tone for the other guys. Snead is the fastest, and best breakaway talent. Duncan is the shiftiest (and showed this Sat), best at making other guys miss. Powell is the strongest, and best at running through guys and breaking tackles. All four bring something to the table. Cut said tonight that if only two of them were good enough to play then only 2 of them would play. They have no ego's and support each other well. No pouting. All 4 guys averaged over 5 yards per carry against Central.

It's going to take a toll on defenses when we keep running a fresh RB in there all game that is good enough to make plays. I used to be in the camp that Snead should start over Juwan, but Juwan has made a believer out of me. He is better than you give him credit for. I still love Snead but I like what the other 3 guys bring to the table. We are loaded at RB and at Receiver. That's a good thing not a bad thing.

Exactly.

I would advise anyone with questions on this point to go over to goDuke.com and listen to Cut's press conference. The whole thing is interesting, but the last two real questions before folks start wandering off are about (1) the running game, and (2) Powell specifically. Agree or disagree, but it explains exactly what Cut is thinking.

[loran16]

Sorry but disagree. As Cut stated on his radio show today we have four No 1 running backs.

Saying this does not make it true.


All four are deserving to play and all four bring something different. Juwan said as much himself on the Duke FB report last week. Juwan is the Sr Leader with the most experience

Let me stop you here. Experience makes players better. This is true. But if a player is better than another player, it DOES NOT MATTER THAT THE OTHER PLAYER HAS MORE EXPERIENCE. Experience in and of itself is meaningless. The fact that a guy is a senior does not make him better than the Sophomore.




, knows the system better, is the best at catching passes out of the backfield, and sets the tone for the other guys. Snead is the fastest, and best breakaway talent. Duncan is the shiftiest (and showed this Sat), best at making other guys miss. Powell is the strongest, and best at running through guys and breaking tackles. All four bring something to the table. Cut said tonight that if only two of them were good enough to play then only 2 of them would play. They have no ego's and support each other well. No pouting. All 4 guys averaged over 5 yards per carry against Central.


Obviously central stats are worthless (But Thompson had less YPC in both years he and snead both played), but you miss the point. With one exception, you don't give 4 different RBs playing time because they have slightly different styles. You find the two or maybe three who are the best overall, who work the best in your scheme, and you utilize them. The fact that two RBs may have different styles does not change the fact that one may be more effective.

The exception is of course catching the ball, which is fine as a role for Thompson. He can be this year's Des Scott. He should not be taking a RB position away from another back in this offense.




It's going to take a toll on defenses when we keep running a fresh RB in there all game that is good enough to make plays. I used to be in the camp that Snead should start over Juwan, but Juwan has made a believer out of me. He is better than you give him credit for. I still love Snead but I like what the other 3 guys bring to the table. We are loaded at RB and at Receiver. That's a good thing not a bad thing.

It's amazing how teams can keep a fresh RB in there all game with 2 or at most 3 RBs. Seriously, 4 RBs are not needed for that.

[OldPhiKap]

Saying this does not make it true.

Denying it does not make it false, either.

Let me stop you here. Experience makes players better. This is true. But if a player is better than another player, it DOES NOT MATTER THAT THE OTHER PLAYER HAS MORE EXPERIENCE. Experience in and of itself is meaningless. The fact that a guy is a senior does not make him better than the Sophomore.

Wow, not even sure where to start with this one. Experience and leadership mean a lot. You equate your opinion of "more talent" with "better," which is not wholly true. There is a reason the kid is in there. If for nothing else, giving a senior some props for four or five years of commitment to Cut's program and our University. But I also happen to believe that Thompson is a good ball player and deserves reps on his own merit anyway.

Obviously central stats are worthless (But Thompson had less YPC in both years he and snead both played), but you miss the point. With one exception, you don't give 4 different RBs playing time because they have slightly different styles. You find the two or maybe three who are the best overall, who work the best in your scheme, and you utilize them. The fact that two RBs may have different styles does not change the fact that one may be more effective.

Isn't it likely that a game against Central is part of that analysis? We played a lot of kids, to give them reps and see how they do. Why would you assume that the RB position is different?

Also, is it not possible that different styles will work better against different teams, and therefore you want to develop multiple options?

The exception is of course catching the ball, which is fine as a role for Thompson. He can be this year's Des Scott. He should not be taking a RB position away from another back in this offense.

You don't think our backs are part of our passing game? Hell, we line a quarterback up as a wide receiver. Even if your analysis were true, why not put a receiver in the backfield given our quick hit attack?

Not picking on you, but I am absolutely amazed that we paste Central in a dominating fashion and there are complaints.



It's amazing how teams can keep a fresh RB in there all game with 2 or at most 3 RBs. Seriously, 4 RBs are not needed for that.

Until there is an injury, and you are left with some players who have not had any reps. But of course, in your analysis game experience is irrelevant, no?

We want to play fast, we need fresh bodies and depth. You develop it by playing it, especially in a game like we had. Thompson had five runs and one backfield pass out of about 75 or more offensive plays we ran -- how is this a problem?.

Response in bold.

[arnie]

Saying this does not make it true.


Let me stop you here. Experience makes players better. This is true. But if a player is better than another player, it DOES NOT MATTER THAT THE OTHER PLAYER HAS MORE EXPERIENCE. Experience in and of itself is meaningless. The fact that a guy is a senior does not make him better than the Sophomore.



Obviously central stats are worthless (But Thompson had less YPC in both years he and snead both played), but you miss the point. With one exception, you don't give 4 different RBs playing time because they have slightly different styles. You find the two or maybe three who are the best overall, who work the best in your scheme, and you utilize them. The fact that two RBs may have different styles does not change the fact that one may be more effective.

The exception is of course catching the ball, which is fine as a role for Thompson. He can be this year's Des Scott. He should not be taking a RB position away from another back in this offense.



It's amazing how teams can keep a fresh RB in there all game with 2 or at most 3 RBs. Seriously, 4 RBs are not needed for that.

Fumbles and fumbles lost should also play into running back time on field. As we know very well, lost fumbles will lose games. I couldn't easily find that stat for each back, anyone know those past numbers?

[OldPhiKap]

Fumbles and fumbles lost should also play into running back time on field. As we know very well, lost fumbles will lose games. I couldn't easily find that stat for each back, anyone know those past numbers?

As well as blocks made vs. blocks missed.

[NYBri]

I seriously thought that I'd never see the day where we counted "too much depth" as a problem for Duke football.

Geesh.

Ditto. When was the last time we heard that complaint?

[Scorp4me]

Thompson isn't my favorite, but my dad (who has seen alot more football than me over his years) thinks alot of him. He's our best blocking back and apparently has the best hands of the running backs. Add in that he's a senior leader (Experience or no experience) and it looks like he should be included in the top 2 and perhaps even start (as he did).

I'm most frustrated by not using the backs to their best abilities (like running Snead up the middle when he is smaller and faster) but I guess if you did that it would telegraph the play. I'm good with them all playing, although I haven't seen enough of Powell to make judgement yet. But Thompson is fine, Duncan is fine, Snead is fine (as long as he holds onto the freaking ball) and if Powell is good enough for Cut he's good enough for me.

I do find it amusing that this board spends all basketball season lamenting that K won't play more players and now we're trying to spend football season lamenting that Cut is playing too many. Can't we just enjoy a 45-0 blowout lol =)

[Mike Corey]

I don't know enough about football to be persuaded one way or the other about the running back situation, but as long as our running backs create a situation for opposing defenses, I'm happy. I feel like we have a handful of backs capable of creating problems for the opposition, and each gives Cutcliffe different skills to utilize in game-planning.

[Devil in the Blue Dress]

I don't know enough about football to be persuaded one way or the other about the running back situation, but as long as our running backs create a situation for opposing defenses, I'm happy. I feel like we have a handful of backs capable of creating problems for the opposition, and each gives Cutcliffe different skills to utilize in game-planning.
I would also tag on what you've said by adding that the head coach who's orchestrating the use of players is one of the best. Certainly, differences of opinion are part of any discussions regarding utilization of players, but I tend to trust Coach Cutcliffe's decisions because he is a top notch coach.

As for the continued concerns expressed by some about too much depth, I can only shake my head. Alabama has demonstrated year after year that there's never too much depth in football.;)

[budwom]

I think there's reason to believe we're going to be running some sets with two running backs. No reason to show much new vs. NCCU.
Even if we aren't doing this, you can't (as others have noted) have too much depth at such a key position. All four of them are good, period.

[-bdbd]

I think there's reason to believe we're going to be running some sets with two running backs. No reason to show much new vs. NCCU.
Even if we aren't doing this, you can't (as others have noted) have too much depth at such a key position. All four of them are good, period.

Yep. Everyone should keep in mind that there was a conscious effort last Sat. NOT to show a whole lot of our offense. I'd say that a MAJORITY is still "in the bag" for the moment. We'll see more as the season progresses, especially as ACC season rolls around.