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DevilHorse
08-25-2007, 11:24 AM
I was gratified to see a horse subject appear in the main topics of the DBR frontpage. As a devoted Secretariat follower since 1973 (as a kid), through till this very day and onging, I felt it reasonable to add some context to the great Belmont Race of 1973.

Secretariat went into the triple crown races as the two year old champion, and the Thoroughbred Horse Of The Year; very unusual for a two year old.
He had actually finished 3rd in his last race before the triple crown due to an abcess in his mouth (his entry mate won, so people who bet on Secretariat actually got their payout).

He won the Kentucky Derby in track (and obviously race) record time, although he won by only 2 1/2 lengths.
He also won the Preakness by 2 1/2 lengths in a time where some have argued was wrong because of a timer malfunction. The official time was just a tad slower than the record, but anyone who timed the recording of the race would note that the race actually went a full second faster than the official time; the discrepancy of the clock was noted at the time of the race itself, so this was not history revisionists at work.

Going into the Belmont, the track was very fast. I remember looking at the track records of the race a year later and noticing that a full 1/3 of the track records were set during the week that preceeded the Belmont.

Horse Races are timed by furlongs (eighth miles) and by quarter miles for longer races; almost all thoroughbred races are run with the fastest quarters run early in the race, with the horses holding on at the end.
Unbelievably, Secretariat's Belmont was run where every succeeding quarter of a mile was faster than the previous. An astonishing accomplishment when considering the length of the race. The Belmont Race went in 2:24 0/5, which was a stakes, track, and world record for a thoroughbed at the distance; and this was a 3 year old carrying the classic weight of 126 lbs.
Also consider that Secretariat's time in the Belmont, at the point of the Derby Distance 1 1/4 miles, was faster (1:59 0/5, than his Kentucky Derby, and he still was to go his fastest quarter of a mile.

The stakes records for the Kentucky Derby and Belmont still stand.

Secretariat actually ran in 2 more 1 and 1/2 mile races, finishing 2nd in one to older horses, and setting a record on turf in 2:24 4/5 under less weight than the Triple Crown weight of 126 lbs.

Within thoroughbred circles, Secretariat's belmont is discussed reverantly among the greatest of only a couple of other races as the greatest efforts of all time.
One other was Dr. Fager's world record 1:32 and 1/5 under 134 lbs in 1968.


In the breeding shed, Secretariat could not possibly meet high expectations that were set out for him. He did sire 2 horses of the year in Risen Star and Lady's Secret. He also became an outstanding Broodmare Sire. In fact, his influence in the highest level of breeding today shows through his daughters. The great sires Storm Cat (Breeders Cup Juvenile Winner) and A P Indy (Belmont Winner and Breeders Cup Classic Winner) are perennially found in the top 5 sires on the planet. Also, Dr. Fager's world record was broken by Elusive Quality several years ago. Elusive Quality is a great granson of Secretariat and the sire of Smarty Jones.. Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner.


Larry

YmoBeThere
08-25-2007, 12:21 PM
Larry,

Thanks for the insight into the horse and the race. As I noted on these boards elsewhere, I was able to see Secretariat in person while he stood at stud at Claiborne Farms. I think at the time Nijinsky was commanding the higher stud fees given the success of the horses he sired. We were visiting good friends of the family(I was a youngster at the time) who were stationed at Lexington Army Depot. They knew someone at the farm, called over, and away we went. I had no idea at the time who Secretariat was relative to other horses but caught on later.

YmoBeThere

YmoBeThere
08-25-2007, 12:26 PM
In a racing mood, I would have nominated Michael Johnson's 200 meters at the Atlanta games as the greatest athletic performance of all time.

dukie8
08-25-2007, 02:15 PM
In a racing mood, I would have nominated Michael Johnson's 200 meters at the Atlanta games as the greatest athletic performance of all time.

both his 200m and 400m world records could go down this week in osaka.

YmoBeThere
08-25-2007, 03:19 PM
but Tyson Gay has to run 0.30 faster over 200m to catch Johnson's mark. That is a huge amount.

Other than Wariner, who is going to challenge for the 400 meter mark? I can't think of anyone else right now who has run under 43.7.

dukie8
08-25-2007, 03:53 PM
but Tyson Gay has to run 0.30 faster over 200m to catch Johnson's mark. That is a huge amount.

Other than Wariner, who is going to challenge for the 400 meter mark? I can't think of anyone else right now who has run under 43.7.

0.30 is a huge improvement in the 200m -- particularly when you already are sub 20.00 -- but mj lopped off 0.34 when he went 19.32. gay has a very good shot at 19,32.

wariner is in a class by himself in the 400m. he already has run 43.50 this summer, which is not that far off 43.18. also, don't forget that both gay and wariner are young and likely will have many more years to better the world records and that those times were mj's best over his entire career (not halfway through).

i just don't think that the greatest athletic feat off all-time should be one that others have gotten very close to. flojo's 100m and 200m wrs are unapproachable without drugs. so are the women's 800m and 10,000m wrs.

dkbaseball
08-25-2007, 04:12 PM
Going simply by the criterion of a world record that took a quantum leap (pun intended) from everything that had gone before, I would have to think that Bob Beamon's long jump in the '68 Olympics stands alone. I think one of his fellow Olympians said: "The rest of us are children."

mapei
08-25-2007, 04:34 PM
Looking at that YouTube video of Secretariat's Belmont, I was stunned to see that there were only five horses in the race! Was that common for a Triple Crown event back in the day?

DevilHorse
08-25-2007, 08:46 PM
It is very common for the number of horses in the Belmont to be only 5 to 8 horses. Understand the at the Kentucky Derby you have horses coming from all corners of the country (and some internationally). You have horses that have been pointing for this one race and haven't given their best efforts yet and they are intended to be tested on the first saturday in May. They come from Arkansas (Arkansas Derby), Louisiana (Rebel and Risen Star), New York (Wood Memorial), California, and Florida (Florida Derby and Tampa Bay Derby).
The only horses that point for the Belmont are those who have fallen behind on the triple crown trail and have fallen behind in their efforts to get to the Kentucky Derby. So they try to get to the Preakness or the Belmont. The Preakness is only 2 weeks later; the Belmont is 5 weeks later. You also have a minor 3 year old race like the Peter Pan in New York that produces a "dark horse" contender for the Belmont several weeks later. Coastal came out of that race to beat Spectacular Bid in 1979 (I think it was).

Also, consider that the Triple Crown trail is a grind for these young horses. They have been prepping for these races since early in the year and are running relatively long races under high rates for what thoroughbreds usually run. If the Derby doesn't exhaust a horse, the Preakness in 2 weeks usually will get the horse. Few of these horses are stout enough to desire to race in the Belmont even though the chances for placing and getting a good check is good. Consider that this year Street Sense didn't even try the Belmont once he lost the Preakness. Hard Spun I think was the only horse to try all 3 races (he won the King's Bishop at Saratoga today; not wanting to face Street Sense in the Travers).

<Basketball Horse Trivia Time>
So, who used to work at Claiborne Farms during the off season of college basketball and used to "muck" Secretariat's stall.
......
Reggie Roby the Kentucky team Center.
I presume his resume said that he had a job working with high priced stock.

BTW, for those who care about horse trivia, the stall that Reggie "mucked", and Secretariat occuppied, was previously occuppied by Secretariat's sire Bold Ruler.

Larry

YmoBeThere
08-25-2007, 08:59 PM
I am thinking that Gay will be more focused on the 100m given all the hoopla and talk about matching up with Powell. There are fewer to challenge in the 200 and while this doesn't preclude him from doing it, in a recent after race interview it seemed his mind was more on the 100m at the moment. Of course the interview was right after the 100m he ran at US qualifying...

mgtr
08-26-2007, 02:20 AM
Secretariat was a great, great horse. I wonder if there is any kind of human interest story which can be constructed around him (viz: Seabiscuit, a great movie). Bob Beamon shocked the world with his long jump. How many others have performed at such an "other-worldly" level that one wants to recheck the timing and measurement equipment?

DevilHorse
08-26-2007, 08:44 AM
As far as I know, there are no "rags to riches" aspects to Secretariat's story.
He was actually conceived as part of a foal sharing deal where the mare owner essentially tossed a coin with a Bold Ruler share owner and each got a foal from a different year from Somethingroyal (Secretariat's dam). Bold Ruler was a great sire and Somethingroyal was a blue blooded mare. I believe the other foal involved in this deal was a minor stakes winner.

Penny Chenery, who owned Secretariat, is well known and loved in the racing community and is known for her philanthropic work.

But I only see documentaries and no feel good movies for Secretariat..sniff.

One other interesting aspect of the Secretariat story is that when he died, they did an autopsy on him. His heart was much larger than a normal thoroughbred, suggesting that he had a much better oxygen delivery system than other horses. This has given brought to light some research and discussion on a sex-linked genetic "fad" in the horse community referred to as the "X-Factor", as it is called in the Margaret Haun book of the same name, that refers to a big heart gene that is carried on the X chromosome. Somethingroyal gave it to Secretariat, and Secretariat gave it to all of his daughters. This is used as a theory to explain why Secretariat became such a great broodmare sire. The X-Factor has been theoretically attributed to the mare Pocohontas (1837) and is present in the Standardbreds (trotters/pacers) too.

Larry

JasonEvans
08-26-2007, 08:55 AM
Secretariat was a great, great horse. I wonder if there is any kind of human interest story which can be constructed around him (viz: Seabiscuit, a great movie). Bob Beamon shocked the world with his long jump. How many others have performed at such an "other-worldly" level that one wants to recheck the timing and measurement equipment?

Ben Johnson - if he had not raised his hand at the end of the 1988 Olympic finals there are some who say he would have run something like a 9.70, as opposed to 9.79. He would almost certainly still hold the record today if he was not loaded with Stanozolol at the time ;)

-Jason "did Carl Lewis drug or was he the only clean athlete in sprinting back then?" Evans

YmoBeThere
08-26-2007, 02:22 PM
Tyson Gay won the 100m in a very good 9.85 time. Watching the preliminary rounds, it just didn't have the feel that a world record time was in the offing.

mgtr
08-26-2007, 03:58 PM
Maybe Secretariat gave the big heart to Lance Armstrong! Now that would be some story (and give a whole new meaning to the word "horse").

dukie8
08-26-2007, 05:32 PM
Tyson Gay won the 100m in a very good 9.85 time. Watching the preliminary rounds, it just didn't have the feel that a world record time was in the offing.

he ran 9.85 INTO a headwind. i'm not sure how watching him cruise through the earlier rounds gave any indication what he could or could not do in the finals. had there been a tailwind, he likely would have put up a wr.

YmoBeThere
08-26-2007, 06:25 PM
but there was no tailwind. My other comments(highly subjective and backward looking) were based purely on my emotional interpretation of the events.

captmojo
08-26-2007, 06:39 PM
Going simply by the criterion of a world record that took a quantum leap (pun intended) from everything that had gone before, I would have to think that Bob Beamon's long jump in the '68 Olympics stands alone. I think one of his fellow Olympians said: "The rest of us are children."

Beamon didn't just break the record. He dropped an atomic bomb on it.

YmoBeThere
08-26-2007, 07:07 PM
I think there should be an important consideration to all this...Secretariat's mark for a Thoroughbred at 1 1/2 miles(on dirt) still stands.

It took 23 years, but Mike Powell ultimately did break the long jump record. Of course, no one else has gotten close to it since Carl Lewis and Powell raced to get there.

dukie8
08-26-2007, 08:03 PM
Beamon didn't just break the record. He dropped an atomic bomb on it.

i don't think you could possibly compare an animal record to a human record. in the history of horse racing, how many horses have had a chance to top secretariat by racing competitively? 100,000? a million? in the history of track and field, how many billions of people have had the opportunity to long jump 29 feet? granted that not everyone has run track and field but the opportunity has existed for just about everyone because running and jumping are so basic and lack of wealth mostly is irrelevant.

don't forget that the old record prior to beamon was 27+ and he SKIPPED the 28s when he jumped 29. i don't think any single athletic feat has even approached the magnitude of that earth shattering performance.

YmoBeThere
08-26-2007, 08:18 PM
who could have competed for the long jump world title.

There is an interesting book called The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. (He also wrote Fooled by Randomness.)
In it he discusses just this type of issue, where one might want to look at the standard normal distribution(the proverbial bell curve). However, when you look at events like Bob Beamon's it isn't applicable, essentially you are looking so far into the tail, the assumptions used to derive the curve are useless.

Perhaps someone better schooled in this idea could chime in.

DevilHorse
08-26-2007, 09:06 PM
>> don't think you could possibly compare an animal record to a human
>> record. in the history of horse racing, how many horses have had
>> a chance to top secretariat by racing competitively? 100,000? a million?
>> in the history of track and field, how many billions of people have had
>> the opportunity to long jump 29 feet? granted that not everyone has
>> run track and field but the opportunity has existed for just about
>> everyone because running and jumping are so basic and lack of
>>wealth mostly is irrelevant.

I have a great deal of respect for what Bob Beamon did, although I would
point out that it was a singular event in his track life. Secretariat was
setting records and wowing the crowd often. In actuality, he lost 6 races.

But although there are only 40,000 thoroughbred produced in the United States each year vs the perhaps 6 to 8 million in the US of children, the thoroughbreds are bred for this; most children are bred for other factors one would presume.

It is also rare that a thoroughbred will run a mile and a half race. It causes additional wear and tear on the horse to no extra advantage to the owners or the betting public. So the number of times the record can be challenged is definitely fewer than the long jump.

Additionally, the next fastest Belmont after Secretariat's 2:24 0/5 is shared by Easy Goer and A. P. Indy (a Secretariat grandson) at 2:26 0/5.
After that, the 4th and 5th fastest belmonts are tied at 2:26 2/5 for Point Given and Risen Star (son of Secretariat who owns the second longest lead at the end of the Belmont). So a 2 second lead for this record on the next best time is quite significant as far as the history of the race is concerned.

Also consider that the Jockey Club Gold Cub, a race that was run and participated in by many of the great older horses of the day, was run at
a mile and a half; so the Belmont was not the only race with great horses
run at that distance.

Larry

YmoBeThere
08-26-2007, 09:20 PM
Not sure if I should use this phrase, but he was a handsome horse. I recall seeing his Gotham Stakes race on ESPN late one night.

hurleyfor3
08-26-2007, 10:37 PM
who could have competed for the long jump world title.

There is an interesting book called The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. (He also wrote Fooled by Randomness.)
In it he discusses just this type of issue, where one might want to look at the standard normal distribution(the proverbial bell curve). However, when you look at events like Bob Beamon's it isn't applicable, essentially you are looking so far into the tail, the assumptions used to derive the curve are useless.

Perhaps someone better schooled in this idea could chime in.


This happens all the time in financial markets.

One very well known asset manager described the various moves in the stock market earlier this month as a 28-standard deviation event (in terms of which sectors moved in which direction, and how severely). The Crash of 1987 is pegged by various sources as between 20 and 27 standard deviations. Ten-sigma moves happen every year or so in some market somewhere, and seem tame in comparison.

OTOH, the age of the universe in trading days is "only" seven or eight standard deviations, depending on your assumptions for the Hubble constant.

Sometimes them bell curves just don't work when describing human behavior. Well, unless you bring in those partners in crime, skew and kurtosis.

dukie8
08-26-2007, 11:49 PM
>> don't think you could possibly compare an animal record to a human
>> record. in the history of horse racing, how many horses have had
>> a chance to top secretariat by racing competitively? 100,000? a million?
>> in the history of track and field, how many billions of people have had
>> the opportunity to long jump 29 feet? granted that not everyone has
>> run track and field but the opportunity has existed for just about
>> everyone because running and jumping are so basic and lack of
>>wealth mostly is irrelevant.

I have a great deal of respect for what Bob Beamon did, although I would
point out that it was a singular event in his track life. Secretariat was
setting records and wowing the crowd often. In actuality, he lost 6 races.

But although there are only 40,000 thoroughbred produced in the United States each year vs the perhaps 6 to 8 million in the US of children, the thoroughbreds are bred for this; most children are bred for other factors one would presume.

It is also rare that a thoroughbred will run a mile and a half race. It causes additional wear and tear on the horse to no extra advantage to the owners or the betting public. So the number of times the record can be challenged is definitely fewer than the long jump.

Additionally, the next fastest Belmont after Secretariat's 2:24 0/5 is shared by Easy Goer and A. P. Indy (a Secretariat grandson) at 2:26 0/5.
After that, the 4th and 5th fastest belmonts are tied at 2:26 2/5 for Point Given and Risen Star (son of Secretariat who owns the second longest lead at the end of the Belmont). So a 2 second lead for this record on the next best time is quite significant as far as the history of the race is concerned.

Also consider that the Jockey Club Gold Cub, a race that was run and participated in by many of the great older horses of the day, was run at
a mile and a half; so the Belmont was not the only race with great horses
run at that distance.

Larry

you are ignoring the rest of the world in your analysis, which adds 100s of millions of potential jumpers every year for over 100 years. granted that not every kid born trains to jump but certain raw athletic abilities, like speed, strength and jumping, are coveted in nearly every society, including the poorest ones. someone with exceptional abilities in one or more of them may not choose to develop his/her abilities to a world class level but the opportunity is there and the pool of potential jumpers is truly massive and into the 10s of billions. i would venture to guess that there have been less than a million horses in history that even have had the opportunity to race at a world class level. the difference is staggering. it is the same reason why it is so much harder to be the next pele (nearly every kid in every country not the united states is exposed to soccer growing up) or jordan (nearly every kid in the united states and in many other countries is exposed to basketball growing up) versus being the next greatest fencer/curler/fill in the blank with a sport that only a tiny fraction of the world's population is exposed to. if some horse were born in (fill in the blank with a random country) that was a genetic freak, it never is going to even get a chance to race, will be stuck in a life of labor until it dies and we never will hear about it. this goes on every year.

JBDuke
08-26-2007, 11:59 PM
I wonder where Burt Munro's record runs fit into this conversation? Auto and motorcycle racing are sports, but I'm not sure they're athletic feats. Still, Munro set the land speed record for motorcycles under 1000 cc's in 1969 and still holds it today - almost 38 years later.

DevilHorse
08-27-2007, 08:59 AM
you are ignoring the rest of the world in your analysis, which adds 100s of millions of potential jumpers every year for over 100 years. granted that not every kid born trains to jump but certain raw athletic abilities, like speed, strength and jumping, are coveted in nearly every society, including the poorest ones. someone with exceptional abilities in one or more of them may not choose to develop his/her abilities to a world class level but the opportunity is there and the pool of potential jumpers is truly massive and into the 10s of billions. i would venture to guess that there have been less than a million horses in history that even have had the opportunity to race at a world class level. the difference is staggering. it is the same reason why it is so much harder to be the next pele (nearly every kid in every country not the united states is exposed to soccer growing up) or jordan (nearly every kid in the united states and in many other countries is exposed to basketball growing up) versus being the next greatest fencer/curler/fill in the blank with a sport that only a tiny fraction of the world's population is exposed to. if some horse were born in (fill in the blank with a random country) that was a genetic freak, it never is going to even get a chance to race, will be stuck in a life of labor until it dies and we never will hear about it. this goes on every year.

It was not my intention to compare Michael Johnson's 200 meters or Bob
Beamon's jump to Secretariat in such a critical fashion (although I did mention
Beamon while also providing similar 'inculpitory' evidence for Secretariat). But I wanted to supply the information that I could surrounding
Secretariat and his life and times which might not be available to the casual
observer and I found interesting.

In general, I find that things that are truly great defy a proper comparison
of which is better; even within the same sport, great efforts or performers just stand on their own. What we are discussing are all marvelous efforts that they'll be talking about for years.

Larry

gw67
08-27-2007, 09:56 AM
I have enjoyed the background in this thread on Secretariat. I am not a racing fan but friends and I watched the Belmont on TV that year and the power and speed of the horse was only outmatched by the voice and emotion of the announcer who made it clear that we were watching a "once in a lifetime" horse.

As far as track athletes go, one of the very greatest was the late "Bullet" Bob Hayes. He was the top sprinter in the world in the early 60's and some of his records held for many years although he had a very short track career before turning to football full time. The memory I have of Hayes was his performance in the 400 meter relay in the 1964 Olympics. I believe that they were in Tokyo and were probably not shown live but I can't remember. What I do remember is Hayes refusing to let the USA relay team lose. He took the baton on the final leg trailing and he ran one of the greatest 100 meter legs in history (8.5 secs if memory serves) to pull out the win. I'm pretty sure ABC was doing the telecast and the announcer, Jim McKay (?), added to the thrill of the great athletic performance.

gw67

DevilHorse
08-27-2007, 12:30 PM
I have enjoyed the background in this thread on Secretariat. I am not a racing fan but friends and I watched the Belmont on TV that year and the power and speed of the horse was only outmatched by the voice and emotion of the announcer who made it clear that we were watching a "once in a lifetime" horse.

As far as track athletes go, one of the very greatest was the late "Bullet" Bob Hayes. He was the top sprinter in the world in the early 60's and some of his records held for many years although he had a very short track career before turning to football full time. The memory I have of Hayes was his performance in the 400 meter relay in the 1964 Olympics. I believe that they were in Tokyo and were probably not shown live but I can't remember. What I do remember is Hayes refusing to let the USA relay team lose. He took the baton on the final leg trailing and he ran one of the greatest 100 meter legs in history (8.5 secs if memory serves) to pull out the win. I'm pretty sure ABC was doing the telecast and the announcer, Jim McKay (?), added to the thrill of the great athletic performance.

gw67

My introduction to the concept of the long pass to a fleet football receiver
was introduced through Bullet Bob Hayes. Who else would you think about
throwing "The Bomb" to? Hayes was probably my first favorite football player!

Larry

gw67
08-27-2007, 12:33 PM
I attempted to verify my memory re the 8.5 seconds for the final 100 meter leg and came accross this article on Hayes. His records were made on cinder tracks and the description of Hayes during that relay race matches my memory. I recall McKay getting excited and stating that Hayes looked like he was shot from a gun.

http://run-down.com/guests/jc_bobhayes.php

gw67

mgtr
08-27-2007, 03:32 PM
I wonder where Burt Munro's record runs fit into this conversation? Auto and motorcycle racing are sports, but I'm not sure they're athletic feats. Still, Munro set the land speed record for motorcycles under 1000 cc's in 1969 and still holds it today - almost 38 years later.

Interesting. I thought the same thing, but, being old, couldn't remember the name of the character, although I did remember the catchy title "The World's Fastest Indian."
I wonder how many people on this board have seen this movie. It is a great story.

MIV
08-27-2007, 05:03 PM
Thank you Larry for the great Secretariat stories!




<Basketball Horse Trivia Time>
So, who used to work at Claiborne Farms during the off season of college basketball and used to "muck" Secretariat's stall.
......
Reggie Roby the Kentucky team Center.
I presume his resume said that he had a job working with high priced stock.

BTW, for those who care about horse trivia, the stall that Reggie "mucked", and Secretariat occuppied, was previously occuppied by Secretariat's sire Bold Ruler.

Larry

Wasn't the Kentucky center Rick Robey, who later played for the Celtics? The Reggie Roby I remember was a punter for the Dolphins.

JBDuke
08-27-2007, 05:36 PM
Interesting. I thought the same thing, but, being old, couldn't remember the name of the character, although I did remember the catchy title "The World's Fastest Indian."
I wonder how many people on this board have seen this movie. It is a great story.

Couldn't agree more. Although the movie takes some liberty with the story, it's still a great film, and a fitting homage to one of the greatest out-of-left-field stories in sports history, IMO. How perfect is Anthony Hopkins in that role?

SilkyJ
08-27-2007, 05:48 PM
Ben Johnson - if he had not raised his hand at the end of the 1988 Olympic finals there are some who say he would have run something like a 9.70, as opposed to 9.79. He would almost certainly still hold the record today if he was not loaded with Stanozolol at the time ;)

-Jason "did Carl Lewis drug or was he the only clean athlete in sprinting back then?" Evans

IIRC, this is a very gray area. during his career there were never any public charges or anything like that, but later, the head of US Olympic Committee anti-doping committee (if not the head, someone pretty high up) release a ton of documents to Sports illustrated detailing how a lot of potential cheating cases were swept under the rug for various reasons. Carl had several cases where was he was involved but exonerated rather suspiciously. Something about "accidental" doping or some crap.

So no, carl did not officially juice it up, but i guess neither has barry bonds...


This happens all the time in financial markets.

One very well known asset manager described the various moves in the stock market earlier this month as a 28-standard deviation event (in terms of which sectors moved in which direction, and how severely). The Crash of 1987 is pegged by various sources as between 20 and 27 standard deviations. Ten-sigma moves happen every year or so in some market somewhere, and seem tame in comparison.

OTOH, the age of the universe in trading days is "only" seven or eight standard deviations, depending on your assumptions for the Hubble constant.

Sometimes them bell curves just don't work when describing human behavior. Well, unless you bring in those partners in crime, skew and kurtosis.

interesting info. Re: the age of the universe, does that mean if something happens in the market that is a 7 or 8 SD swing, then that means it is a "once-in-a-billion-years" event?

DevilHorse
08-27-2007, 09:30 PM
Thank you Larry for the great Secretariat stories!

Wasn't the Kentucky center Rick Robey, who later played for the Celtics? The Reggie Roby I remember was a punter for the Dolphins.

You might be right. I thought somebody 'robbed' and "e" from Robey somewhere in there :^)

My pleasure on providing the stories.

I went to Kentucky once to visit Secretariat and made
it to Claiborne's front gate. But it happened to be during the Keeneland sale and all of their
people were busy and there was no one there to take me back for a visit. I was quite upset.
He passed on a few years later. But I did go to Keeneland and scratched my nose during a
couple of million dollar yearlings being auctioned. Free drinks too.

Larry

phaedrus
08-27-2007, 09:48 PM
i just don't think that the greatest athletic feat off all-time should be one that others have gotten very close to. flojo's 100m and 200m wrs are unapproachable without drugs. so are the women's 800m and 10,000m wrs.

wouldn't you say 0.30 seconds is far from "very close to"?

on another note, most standing women's world records are dubious in the minds of many track fans. moreso than the men's records, which, of course, aren't free from doubt either.