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View Full Version : A new approach to minutes played next year



jcastranio
07-17-2013, 12:59 PM
In my endless tinkering with lineups and thoughts for next season (Like I have nothing better to do), I come across something intriguing (at least to me)

If the perceived five starters are Quinn, Sheed, Rodney, Amile, and Jabari - you are looking at Freshman, Sophomore, Sophomore, Sophomore, Junior. They get the starter's minutes (25-32 minutes, based on the game and on foul trouble).

Then there are three veterans, all seniors, who should see significant time (Tyler, Andre, Josh) based on past performance, experience, and K's tendency (a good tendency) to relay on veterans when he can. They go for 15-25 minutes, depending on the foul difficultly and the situation.

Then there are four young players (two freshman, two red-shirt sophomores) - Matt, Semi, Marshall, Alex - who all bring different things to the table and are all "wild cards" in terms of what they might bring next year. Their minutes could fluctuate wildly, depending on the situation, foul issues, and their performance. Their minutes could go all the way from DNP to 20 minutes any particular game.

K would be playing it "safe" with a very strong top 8, while allowing the four youngest players to develop as they may. I think that we will not "rely" on any of the youngest four, but we may enjoy their efforts from time to time. The real key is ... will there be a breakout player from the young four who earns significant time this year, or will it mostly be a year of development with sporadic minutes?

CDu
07-17-2013, 01:10 PM
In my endless tinkering with lineups and thoughts for next season (Like I have nothing better to do), I come across something intriguing (at least to me)

If the perceived five starters are Quinn, Sheed, Rodney, Amile, and Jabari - you are looking at Freshman, Sophomore, Sophomore, Sophomore, Junior. They get the starter's minutes (25-32 minutes, based on the game and on foul trouble).

Then there are three veterans, all seniors, who should see significant time (Tyler, Andre, Josh) based on past performance, experience, and K's tendency (a good tendency) to relay on veterans when he can. They go for 15-25 minutes, depending on the foul difficultly and the situation.

Then there are four young players (two freshman, two red-shirt sophomores) - Matt, Semi, Marshall, Alex - who all bring different things to the table and are all "wild cards" in terms of what they might bring next year. Their minutes could fluctuate wildly, depending on the situation, foul issues, and their performance. Their minutes could go all the way from DNP to 20 minutes any particular game.

K would be playing it "safe" with a very strong top 8, while allowing the four youngest players to develop as they may. I think that we will not "rely" on any of the youngest four, but we may enjoy their efforts from time to time. The real key is ... will there be a breakout player from the young four who earns significant time this year, or will it mostly be a year of development with sporadic minutes?

Slight quibble, but Plumlee and Murphy are not among the "four youngest." They are, in fact, along with Cook and Hood the fourth-most experienced (in terms of years at a college program). They are only "young" in the sense of actual playing time experience.

As for the key question, I would say that Murphy, Ojeleye, and Plumlee will be essentially competing with Hairston and (possibly) Jefferson for minutes. It's possible that any one of those three beats out Hairston and joins the main 8-man rotation. It's also possible that none of them are able to supplant Hairston and Jefferson. If not, then (as you said) they'll log quite a few DNPs (and garbage time minutes) and then occasionally have a 15-20 minute game whenever injuries or foul trouble forces the issue.

JNort
07-17-2013, 06:15 PM
Slight quibble, but Plumlee and Murphy are not among the "four youngest." They are, in fact, along with Cook and Hood the fourth-most experienced (in terms of years at a college program). They are only "young" in the sense of actual playing time experience.

As for the key question, I would say that Murphy, Ojeleye, and Plumlee will be essentially competing with Hairston and (possibly) Jefferson for minutes. It's possible that any one of those three beats out Hairston and joins the main 8-man rotation. It's also possible that none of them are able to supplant Hairston and Jefferson. If not, then (as you said) they'll log quite a few DNPs (and garbage time minutes) and then occasionally have a 15-20 minute game whenever injuries or foul trouble forces the issue.

I just don't buy the Ojeleye hype. At least not that he is good enough to play significant mins his first year. In his YouTube highlights he gets little seperation and does not get open off his own stipple very well. He uses his raw strength to score and bully people around. In college guys will be stronger than they were in high school. I think his 1st year or two will have more growing pains than many expect.

CDu
07-17-2013, 09:41 PM
I just don't buy the Ojeleye hype. At least not that he is good enough to play significant mins his first year. In his YouTube highlights he gets little seperation and does not get open off his own stipple very well. He uses his raw strength to score and bully people around. In college guys will be stronger than they were in high school. I think his 1st year or two will have more growing pains than many expect.

Oh I agree. I think our freshmen not named Parker are in for a dearth of minutes this year.

Henderson
07-17-2013, 10:14 PM
Someone is going to surprise us in a positive way and get more minutes than we think. Always happens. Could be Semi (or Alex or MP3). Drive and development play a big role from year to year.

Newton_14
07-17-2013, 10:23 PM
I just don't buy the Ojeleye hype. At least not that he is good enough to play significant mins his first year. In his YouTube highlights he gets little seperation and does not get open off his own stipple very well. He uses his raw strength to score and bully people around. In college guys will be stronger than they were in high school. I think his 1st year or two will have more growing pains than many expect.

Not saying you are wrong, but I would not totally dismiss Semi. The rumors are growing daily that he is going to be able to help in year 1. Forget scoring. That will not be his calling card in year one. So how he scored in high school, as well as how much he scored is really not relevant to the discussion of whether or not he can help. The key thing for Semi is he has a man's body right now, will only get stronger over the summer in the Duke weight room and conditioning program, and has off the charts athleticism and leaping ability.

If (and it's a big if) he is basketball intelligent enough to grasp the Duke defensive scheme's early on, and is able to defend the college 4's and 5's, he can earn minutes as a post defender, rebounder, and fast break finisher. In that respect he could challenge for the backup spot at the PF and Center positions, and have a decent chance to beat out Hairston, Murphy, and MP3 for a few of those minutes.

I do not however, give him any chance at all of earning minutes on the wing. Too many high quality players in front of him in Rasheed, Rodney, Tyler, and Andre. He would also be competing with Alex as a wing also.

I am very interested to see in the fall how Semi fares in those competitions. If you put a gun to my head right now today and made me call it, I would likely vote your way, but like I said the talk of his abilities is getting louder by the day, so come October Semi may surprise us as one of the key reserves.

I am also hearing that K is focused on playing to the teams strengths by pressing a lot, playing faster on offense looking to break far more often than recent years and thus going deeper down the bench than he normally does to keep fresh bodies on the court. I believe the parts about pressing, breaking, but will have to be shown that he will in fact go deeper down the bench before I believe that part. Time will tell.

Great thread by the OP by the way. Well done.

Kedsy
07-17-2013, 11:43 PM
Someone is going to surprise us in a positive way and get more minutes than we think. Always happens. Could be Semi (or Alex or MP3). Drive and development play a big role from year to year.

Actually, it almost never happens, absent injury to a rotation player. Coach K generally plays a rotation of 7 guys, occasionally he goes to 8, depending on personnel. This year, it looks like it ought to be 8, since we have 5 guards/wings who are expected to get good minutes (Quinn, Rasheed, Tyler, Andre, and Rodney), and you need to have a big man rotation of at least 3 guys. So who will be the 3 bigs in our rotation? Well, Jabari will be one of them, and there will be two others. Early money is on Amile and Josh. Marshall, Alex, and/or Semi could potentially beat out Josh and/or Amile, but if they do, it would mean the people who get beat out aren't going to play very much.

Ultimately, once January 1 rolls around, I wouldn't expect more than 8 guys to get meaningful minutes in close/big games. Which means only two of Amile/Josh/Marshall/Alex/Semi are going to play 10+ minutes. And that's what always happens.

gumbomoop
07-18-2013, 01:59 AM
Actually, it almost never happens, absent injury to a rotation player. Coach K generally plays a rotation of 7 guys, occasionally he goes to 8, depending on personnel. This year, it looks like it ought to be 8, since we have [1] 5 guards/wings who are expected to get good minutes (Quinn, Rasheed, Tyler, Andre, and Rodney), and you need to have a big man rotation of at least 3 guys. So who will be the 3 bigs in our rotation? Well, Jabari will be one of them, and there will be two others. Early money is on Amile and Josh. Marshall, Alex, and/or Semi could potentially beat out Josh and/or Amile, but if they do, it would mean the people who get beat out aren't going to play very much.

Ultimately, once January 1 rolls around, I wouldn't expect more than 8 guys to get [2] meaningful minutes in close/big games. Which means only two of Amile/Josh/Marshall/Alex/Semi are going to play [3] 10+ minutes. And [4] that's what always happens.

I'll disagree a little here, just speculating.

Seems clear you're spot on re [1] the 5 guys who are almost certain to share the PG and 2 wing spots [120 mpg]. I suppose one might speculate that Semi or even Matt could sneak in there, but I wouldn't. I agree with your list; thus those 5 average 24 mpg, with Quinn, Rasheed, and Rodney getting more, Andre and Tyler less, but all 5 easily achieving "meaningful" minutes.

But, for the 2 inside [including likely stretch-4s] spots [80 mpg], I'll guess that K may go with 4 guys rather than 3. Jabari is obvious, probably ~ 32 mpg. That leaves ~ 48 mpg inside. If, for these 2 inside spots, [2] "meaningful" means [3] 10+ mpg, I'll guess that 3 rather than 2 additional guys will get 10+. And I do mean late season, not just pre-ACC, so I'm not hedging there. Further, I'll guess that Amile will almost certainly be 1 of those 3. I'm guessing his ~ 20 mpg will leave ~ 25-30 mpg for a couple of others to split. Finally, I'll guess Josh will be in my predicted 9-man rotation, leaving Alex, Marshall, and Semi to fight for meaningful/10+.

But, here's another variation, and implicitly a disagreement that your [4] final sentence will obtain this season, though, admittedly, it has K-history to commend it: given that all of Amile, Josh, Alex, Marshall, and Semi either clearly do or might have widely varying O or D strengths, situation-dependent, it's possible that even late-season K would - if the definition of "rotation" means 10+ mpg - technically have only a 6-7-man "rotation," but with maybe 3 others getting 7-8 mpg each. And I'd argue that, late-season, if the final 3 guys are each getting 7-8 mpg, situation-dependent, those are "meaningful" minutes. So, they might not be technically "in the regular rotation" if that means 10+, but they'd still be playing meaningful minutes.

Kedsy
07-18-2013, 12:17 PM
But, here's another variation, and implicitly a disagreement that your [4] final sentence will obtain this season, though, admittedly, it has K-history to commend it: given that all of Amile, Josh, Alex, Marshall, and Semi either clearly do or might have widely varying O or D strengths, situation-dependent, it's possible that even late-season K would - if the definition of "rotation" means 10+ mpg - technically have only a 6-7-man "rotation," but with maybe 3 others getting 7-8 mpg each. And I'd argue that, late-season, if the final 3 guys are each getting 7-8 mpg, situation-dependent, those are "meaningful" minutes. So, they might not be technically "in the regular rotation" if that means 10+, but they'd still be playing meaningful minutes.

Obviously it's all speculation at this point, and I actually hope your predictions come true, rather than mine. But even 7 or 8 mpg (in close games after Jan 1) is very rare under Coach K. I don't have time to do all the math, but in the last 15 seasons, I believe our 9th man has seen 7+ mpg in close (< 20 pt margin) games after January 1 only twice (2009 and 2003). So, based on history, your idea is possible but not very likely.

Billy Dat
07-18-2013, 02:00 PM
Obviously it's all speculation at this point, and I actually hope your predictions come true, rather than mine. But even 7 or 8 mpg (in close games after Jan 1) is very rare under Coach K. I don't have time to do all the math, but in the last 15 seasons, I believe our 9th man has seen 7+ mpg in close (< 20 pt margin) games after January 1 only twice (2009 and 2003). So, based on history, your idea is possible but not very likely.

Rather than do the math, you could just find the threads where we have this same discussion every year. Whenever people bash K about not developing his bench, he always fires back with some variation of "it's more important to develop the starters". As you say, he's just a 7/8 man rotation coach, with the emphasis on 7. If I were negatively recruiting against him, I'd be using that instead of "he can't develop big men". But, what star recruit thinks he isn't going to play?

Saratoga2
07-18-2013, 02:21 PM
I'll disagree a little here, just speculating.

Seems clear you're spot on re [1] the 5 guys who are almost certain to share the PG and 2 wing spots [120 mpg]. I suppose one might speculate that Semi or even Matt could sneak in there, but I wouldn't. I agree with your list; thus those 5 average 24 mpg, with Quinn, Rasheed, and Rodney getting more, Andre and Tyler less, but all 5 easily achieving "meaningful" minutes.

But, for the 2 inside [including likely stretch-4s] spots [80 mpg], I'll guess that K may go with 4 guys rather than 3. Jabari is obvious, probably ~ 32 mpg. That leaves ~ 48 mpg inside. If, for these 2 inside spots, [2] "meaningful" means [3] 10+ mpg, I'll guess that 3 rather than 2 additional guys will get 10+. And I do mean late season, not just pre-ACC, so I'm not hedging there. Further, I'll guess that Amile will almost certainly be 1 of those 3. I'm guessing his ~ 20 mpg will leave ~ 25-30 mpg for a couple of others to split. Finally, I'll guess Josh will be in my predicted 9-man rotation, leaving Alex, Marshall, and Semi to fight for meaningful/10+.

But, here's another variation, and implicitly a disagreement that your [4] final sentence will obtain this season, though, admittedly, it has K-history to commend it: given that all of Amile, Josh, Alex, Marshall, and Semi either clearly do or might have widely varying O or D strengths, situation-dependent, it's possible that even late-season K would - if the definition of "rotation" means 10+ mpg - technically have only a 6-7-man "rotation," but with maybe 3 others getting 7-8 mpg each. And I'd argue that, late-season, if the final 3 guys are each getting 7-8 mpg, situation-dependent, those are "meaningful" minutes. So, they might not be technically "in the regular rotation" if that means 10+, but they'd still be playing meaningful minutes.

All of these variations do not take into account the injuries that come along almost every year. My memory is not good in that respect, by we have had big men with foot injuries and others out for part of the season, virtually every year. Next seasons team is pretty much bullet proof as far as injuries are concerned, with the exception of our big men.

Accounting for injuries, we are likely to see 9 or 10 players get significant minutes during the season.

Henderson
07-18-2013, 02:52 PM
Actually, it almost never happens, absent injury to a rotation player. Coach K generally plays a rotation of 7 guys, occasionally he goes to 8, depending on personnel. This year, it looks like it ought to be 8, since we have 5 guards/wings who are expected to get good minutes (Quinn, Rasheed, Tyler, Andre, and Rodney), and you need to have a big man rotation of at least 3 guys. So who will be the 3 bigs in our rotation? Well, Jabari will be one of them, and there will be two others. Early money is on Amile and Josh. Marshall, Alex, and/or Semi could potentially beat out Josh and/or Amile, but if they do, it would mean the people who get beat out aren't going to play very much.

Ultimately, once January 1 rolls around, I wouldn't expect more than 8 guys to get meaningful minutes in close/big games. Which means only two of Amile/Josh/Marshall/Alex/Semi are going to play 10+ minutes. And that's what always happens.

Historically, that's only true once the season is underway, after the first few games. And neither we nor the coaching staff is there yet. A lot happens in the summer and in those first few games for the staff to know who their rotation players are going to be. At this time last year, we could see Amile, Alex, and Rasheed as possible big minute guys. Rasheed shined early and was rewarded. Amile and Alex not as much. Semi could surprise that way. So could Alex or Amile. But I do agree that by Jan 1, we'll know. We just don't know now. I doubt K would say today which players have earned minutes for the coming season, aside from Quinn, Rasheed, Jabari, and Rodney. I'm looking for a surprising breakout by someone we don't necessarily expect. And if that happens, K will be all over it.

Billy Dat
07-18-2013, 03:06 PM
I'm looking for a surprising breakout by someone we don't necessarily expect. And if that happens, K will be all over it.

I don't think anyone discounts that someone we don't expect could break into the top 7/8. That potential is there every year. But, I think many of us feel that if someone emerges from relative obscurity, it means someone who we assumed would be top 7/8 will be stewing on the bench.

Bob Green
07-18-2013, 03:42 PM
These minutes distribution threads seem to always devolve into a "who is going to transfer" discussion at some point so I believe this is an appropriate thread to post this link:

http://www.accsports.com/blogs/jim-young/2013071815800/acc-hoops-transfer-lists.php


Every year I feel like Duke fans - and Duke detractors - crank up a transfer pool/watch, trying to anticipate which highly-touted prep player will tire of getting limited minutes under Mike Krzyzewski. Yet the Blue Devils have had the least number of transfers in the ACC over the past four years.

Enjoy!

UrinalCake
07-18-2013, 04:03 PM
These minutes distribution threads seem to always devolve into a "who is going to transfer" discussion at some point so I believe this is an appropriate thread to post this link:

That's because Coach K brainwashes his players into staying rather than transferring or leaving for the NBA. The frontal lobotomies are mandatory to keep his players in check. Didn't you get the memo from IC?

yancem
07-18-2013, 04:26 PM
Two things to keep in mind when looking at how deep bench utilization will be are 1) pace of play and 2) talent/skill separation between the starters and bench. Duke pushed the pace a little more last season than they have recently but it has been a pretty long time since Duke has has the athletes on the wing to truly extend the defense and push the pace. We have also lacked fast pg's (although Smith had speed and athleticism he wasn't a classic fast break pg). We haven't had so many athletic wings since the late 90's and Cook is a good fast break pg. Especially since we don't have a lot of size down low, I expect that K will try to push the pace more than he has since '99. A faster pace will necessitate more frequent substitutions, not necessarily more players getting pt but it could. As for separation, that is a little hard to judge this early but I'm not sure that there will be a huge difference between Jefferson, Hairston and MP3. They all have different strengths and weaknesses so I would guess that their pt could vary depending on the opponent. I'm also not sure that any of the 3 will start out heads and shoulders above Murphy or Semi which means that they will have a shot to earn some minutes. Parker is the only front court player that I expect to really separate from the crowed. For the guards/wings, I do think that there will be some separation between Cook/Sulaimon/Hood and Dawkins/Thornton and even more between them and Jones. Based on previous seasons, I think it is safe to expect Dawkins and Cook to get meaningful minutes.

So I would think that we have 5 guards/wings that will definitely get meaningful minutes. Parker and 2 of Jefferson/Hairston/MP3 should also get meaningful minutes which would give us an 8 man rotation but if Murphy, Semi or the third big can demonstrate that they can contribute I don't think that it is unrealistic that we go deeper. I keep thinking that based on out lack of size in the post other than MP3 (who I don't think will be ready for more than 8-12 minutes at most) our best strategy would be to press and push the pace to wear teams down with our athleticism which would logically mean we play more players but like many on this board I'm not terribly confident that will happen.

Kedsy
07-18-2013, 04:54 PM
At this time last year, we could see Amile, Alex, and Rasheed as possible big minute guys. Rasheed shined early and was rewarded.

At this time last year, I think most people expected Rasheed to get good minutes. A lot of people envisioned him as a 6th man, rather than a starter, but my recollection is pretty much everyone expected him to be in the 7/8-man rotation. On the other side of the coin, I don't think many expected Amile to get big minutes, and he didn't while Ryan Kelly was healthy. Obviously he stepped in when Ryan got hurt, but at this point I think all these discussions have to assume no major injuries.

Alex is another story. A lot of people expected him to be in the rotation because of Coach K's frequent praise of Alex's abilities. But I think most of those Alex believers expected a deeper rotation (8-man instead of 7-man), and what happened is they didn't get it (again, until Ryan got hurt, but that's a different discussion). My guess is those who are currently suggesting a 9-man rotation (and thus hope for a breakthrough from Alex, Marshall, or Semi) will be similarly disappointed.

That said, it's certainly possible that Alex, Marshall, or Semi beat out Josh or (less likely) Amile for a spot in the rotation. As you say, we won't know until the games start.


I expect that K will try to push the pace more than he has since '99. A faster pace will necessitate more frequent substitutions, not necessarily more players getting pt but it could.

In 1999, in games after January 1 with a final margin less than 20 points, we played a 7-man rotation. In only two such games did as many as 8 players see 10 or more minutes (the same number of games (2) in which only 6 players saw 10+ minutes). Based on minutes played, our 9th guy in 1999 was Taymon Domzalski, who for the season averaged 7.6 mpg (counting DNPs as zero minutes). However, in close (< 20 pt margin) games after January 1, Taymon only averaged 1.0 mpg. So, despite the faster pace, our rotations did not employ more players.

We also played a pretty fast pace in 2000, 2001, and 2002 (probably even faster than 1999), but in those years we more or less played 6-man rotations (7-man in 2001 if you count Casey Sanders, but if not for Boozer's injury, it would have been 6). So while you may be right about more frequent substitutions, Coach K does not appear to go deeper when he pushes the pace.