Alex Murphy's Impact

[adukeforduke]

Most of the debate on this board is currently about the starting C for next season.

It seems to me Alex Murphy is largely being ignored as a potential contributor for next years team. I was very disappointed Murphy didnt see more action with last year's team. It seemed to me a lack of confidence was his biggest weakness. I hope for major improvement this off-season and he could develop into a true weapon off the bench.

I agree with those who want to see Amile as the starting C. However, this lineup could be very effective for significant stretches during a game (10-15 minutes):
Quinn
Sheed
Hood
Murphy
Parker

Murphy would play either the 3 or 4 and Parker would play the 5.
Any thoughts??

[OldPhiKap]

Most of the debate on this board is currently about the starting C for next season.

It seems to me Alex Murphy is largely being ignored as a potential contributor for next years team. I was very disappointed Murphy didnt see more action with last year's team. It seemed to me a lack of confidence was his biggest weakness. I hope for major improvement this off-season and he could develop into a true weapon off the bench.

I agree with those who want to see Amile as the starting C. However, this lineup could be very effective for significant stretches during a game (10-15 minutes):
Quinn
Sheed
Hood
Murphy
Parker

Murphy would play either the 3 or 4 and Parker would play the 5.
Any thoughts??

Murphy certainly has a chance to earn floor time this year. That would be a tough team to defend, the question is -- know will would they defend as a team? (Don't know the answer -- but whatever group answered that question best is who will get the most time).

[Newton_14]

Most of the debate on this board is currently about the starting C for next season.

It seems to me Alex Murphy is largely being ignored as a potential contributor for next years team. I was very disappointed Murphy didnt see more action with last year's team. It seemed to me a lack of confidence was his biggest weakness. I hope for major improvement this off-season and he could develop into a true weapon off the bench.

I agree with those who want to see Amile as the starting C. However, this lineup could be very effective for significant stretches during a game (10-15 minutes):
Quinn
Sheed
Hood
Murphy
Parker

Murphy would play either the 3 or 4 and Parker would play the 5.
Any thoughts??

I still have high hopes for Murphy. A lot of talent there. The dunk against NC State was a small glimpse of what Murph is capable of. I think confidence and court awareness are two of his biggest weaknesses to date. In small stretches last year (that same State game being one of them) he defended the opposing PF very well inlcuding short stints against CJ Leslie. Still needs to improve a bit with lateral quickness on the wing for defense, and making better decisions with the ball. He can drive and score pretty effectively when attacking the rim.

The biggest problem this year is depth at his position. Hood, Rasheed, Andre, and Tyler can all play the 3 well enough to satisfy K, and Hood, Amile, Josh, and Jabari can all likely play the 4 well enough to satisfy K. That's 4 guys to beat out for time at the 3, and 4 guys to beat out for time at the 4. I definitely think Alex will get more minutes this year than he did last year and will help this team. I don't see him breaking into that 20-25+ mpg range until his Jr season though. I am still counting on 2 very solid/highlevel season's from him in his Jr/Sr seasons. Still believe he has All ACC caliber potential if he can put it all together.

[NSDukeFan]

Most of the debate on this board is currently about the starting C for next season.

It seems to me Alex Murphy is largely being ignored as a potential contributor for next years team. I was very disappointed Murphy didnt see more action with last year's team. It seemed to me a lack of confidence was his biggest weakness. I hope for major improvement this off-season and he could develop into a true weapon off the bench.

I agree with those who want to see Amile as the starting C. However, this lineup could be very effective for significant stretches during a game (10-15 minutes):
Quinn
Sheed
Hood
Murphy
Parker

Murphy would play either the 3 or 4 and Parker would play the 5.
Any thoughts??
I believe you have a lot of company in the Alex Murphy fan club. I am also very hopeful that he will be a meaningful contributor this year. The problem for Alex next year is that he will hopefully have 2 all-ACC forwards starting ahead of him and be competing for minutes with 2 seniors (Andre and Josh) who I also hope have great final years, as well as Amile, Semi, etc. A lot of guys I hope have big years, actually all of them.

[Dukehky]

Murphy really comes off to me like one of those "my time will come" kind of guys. Now while this isn't a debilitating train of thought, it's not something that is going to get you major minutes at Duke. At least he wants to stick around to get his playing him, he's got to go get it. This past year, there really were minutes to go and get when Ryan went down, but he didn't get them. This leads me to believe that he just didn't work as hard as some of the other guys who played ahead of him like Amile and Josh, or that he didn't get time at empty rotations at the 3 where we had to stick Thornton in there. I mean, it wasn't terrible, maybe that's what he needed to learn that just because people go down ahead of you, or guys ahead of you leave, doesn't mean you're absolutely going to get your run in.

He's only a red-shirt sophomore this year, I'm certainly not hitting the panic button or any thing. The kid's just got to go get it. All that being said, the really isn't any excuse for him to not get significantly more minutes this year, I hope, and think that he will.

[Troublemaker]

He's the player with the widest range of possibilities because we've both seen the coaching staff praise him very highly and even start him in some exhibition games and then we've also seen him basically get no playing time during the season. By all accounts, his biggest challenge is confidence in himself so his improvement could be like a light switch. If he starts to believe in himself, it would not be surprising if he becomes a major contributor. But if he can't get over the mental hump, he could get 0 minutes in competitive games again.

[johnb]

...
The biggest problem this year is depth at his position. Hood, Rasheed, Andre, and Tyler can all play the 3 well enough to satisfy K, and Hood, Amile, Josh, and Jabari can all likely play the 4 well enough to satisfy K....

I'm a big fan of Tyler's, but I somehow don't think he'll be getting a lot of PT at the small forward position.

Overall, I'd guess no one really knows who will be getting all of that PT that opened up with graduation. Those of who don't know much beyond second-hand reports and a few minutes of PT can only guess, while the coaching staff is probably not posting their imagined lineup on this board. I'd be curious the extent to which they know such things before practice starts. For example, are the coaches currently quite confident as to who will average 20 minutes per game and who will barely get off the bench? They would never reveal such expectations, and I'm sure they get surprised now and again, but surely they have their internal talent assessment that simply doesn't (and shouldn't) get articulated.

[Atldukie79]

I believe Alex has a bright future in front of him. He may shine his junior and senior year...if not this year. As pointed out, PT this year may be challenging based on the volume of top notch perimeter players. It has also been mentioned that confidence may be a problem and I agree. That likely hurt his 3 pt shooting which, as I recall, was not high. He seemed lost on the court several times. I recall some fast breaks where he was doubling a man while leaving another player free.

But the thing that worried me the most was a trait I noticed with Andre Dawkins the previous year. All too often, when isolated one on one with a perimeter player, Murphy seemd slow to react to a penetration move. Is it lateral quickness? Or is it reaction time. I always thought that was Dawkinn's weakness too. You might be slow or quick, but if you don't react to the move, it doesn't matter which you were.

Anyway, I am looking at both of these guys to see if they can stay in front of their man while on D!

[Newton_14]

I'm a big fan of Tyler's, but I somehow don't think he'll be getting a lot of PT at the small forward position.

Overall, I'd guess no one really knows who will be getting all of that PT that opened up with graduation. Those of who don't know much beyond second-hand reports and a few minutes of PT can only guess, while the coaching staff is probably not posting their imagined lineup on this board. I'd be curious the extent to which they know such things before practice starts. For example, are the coaches currently quite confident as to who will average 20 minutes per game and who will barely get off the bench? They would never reveal such expectations, and I'm sure they get surprised now and again, but surely they have their internal talent assessment that simply doesn't (and shouldn't) get articulated.

On the first point, Tyler has played SF or WF if you prefer (meaning someone else was playing PG and SG and Tyler was the other wing) quite a lot over the past two seasons and performed just fine on defense. Two years ago we saw Tyler on the floor with Austin and Seth with Seth running the point. This year we saw lineups with Quinn, Seth, and Tyler many times as well. Doesn't mean it will happen this coming year but history has shown K is very comfortable playing Tyler at SF. Tyler will get his minutes one way or the other. Some as the backup PG when Quinn is sitting, and some on the wing. I suspect it will be a mix similar to the last couple of years.

As for the second point about minutes, I did not really grasp your point. The coaching staff certainly has their plans for lineups and rotations, but it will all come down to how guys develop over the summer and then perform in practice, and finally in games. They certainly don't post on this board or any other board. This board is for our members to discuss how we think such things will play out based on history and our knowledge of the players, how K runs his team's, and our gut feelings based on all data points we have to go on. Not sure why it is a bad thing for posters to post their thoughts on how the lineups and rotations will shake out, but perhaps I totally missed your point or what you were trying to convey there? Apologies if that is the case.. just read to me like you were being critical of people speculating on these things on this board.

[Billy Dat]

Aside from Zoubek's unlikely emergence in the stretch run of his senior year, how many examples are there of guys buried on K's bench in their first few years who became meaningful pieces of the machine? Maybe Melchionni or Dockery? McClure? Granted, there is a red shirt year in there but it just feels like his window is shrinking quickly.

[CDu]

Aside from Zoubek's unlikely emergence in the stretch run of his senior year, how many examples are there of guys buried on K's bench in their first few years who became meaningful pieces of the machine? Maybe Melchionni or Dockery? McClure? Granted, there is a red shirt year in there but it just feels like his window is shrinking quickly.

Alaa Abdelnaby is another example - probably better than McClure (who basically kept the same role for most of his career). But you're right: it's pretty rare for a player to go from two years of being a non-factor to significant contributor. And even Abdelnaby averaged over 5 mpg as a freshman and about 10 mpg as a sophomore.

People have pointed to next year or the year after as the time that Murphy will contribute. But what if Ojeleye is better? What if Hood sticks around? What if we land Justise Winslow and/or Kevon Looney? There is likely to be an elite talent or two on the roster that will make minutes difficult to achieve.

I'm not saying Murphy can't do it. But he's been marginalized on two different teams for which perimeter size was a concern. And over the next year or two, we're likely to be increasing our depth/talent in terms of perimeter size. So he has his work cut out for him.

[Billy Dat]

I'm not saying Murphy can't do it. But he's been marginalized on two different teams for which perimeter size was a concern. And over the next year or two, we're likely to be increasing our depth/talent in terms of perimeter size. So he has his work cut out for him.

I'm with you, I don't think Murphy's incapable, but at some point you become whatever K thinks you are and then that opinion kind of freezes. Look at Marty Pocious - the kid is a STUD on the Lithuania national team and a really solid Euroleague player. Had K unleashed Marty, maybe we would have seen some of that flair. Maybe not. He seems like a good comp for Murphy at this point.

[Kedsy]

Aside from Zoubek's unlikely emergence in the stretch run of his senior year, how many examples are there of guys buried on K's bench in their first few years who became meaningful pieces of the machine? Maybe Melchionni or Dockery? McClure? Granted, there is a red shirt year in there but it just feels like his window is shrinking quickly.

Melchionni for sure. He played just 2.2 and 3.9 mpg his first two years and then 21.7 and 19.9 mpg his final two years. He might be a pretty fair comp for Alex, at least as far as his place in the rotation.

[CDu]

I'm with you, I don't think Murphy's incapable, but at some point you become whatever K thinks you are and then that opinion kind of freezes. Look at Marty Pocious - the kid is a STUD on the Lithuania national team and a really solid Euroleague player. Had K unleashed Marty, maybe we would have seen some of that flair. Maybe not. He seems like a good comp for Murphy at this point.

Pocius is a very interesting name. Like Murphy, Pocius had terrific athleticism. Like Murphy, Pocius had questionable defensive instincts and wasn't a good shooter. Heck, their freshman year stats are almost mirror images as well, with both averaging ~6 mpg and 1.5-2 ppg, shooting just under 50% from the field but struggling from the line and from the perimeter. I wouldn't be surprised if Murphy's career trajectory at Duke looks similar.


Melchionni for sure. He played just 2.2 and 3.9 mpg his first two years and then 21.7 and 19.9 mpg his final two years. He might be a pretty fair comp for Alex, at least as far as his place in the rotation.

It's certainly possible. But I can't help but think that we'll see the same minutes logjam facing Murphy every year. Jefferson is likely to remain ahead of Murphy at PF for their entire time at Duke. Hood is probably ahead this year at SF, and we have a chance to land Winslow next year. And there's always Ojeleye, whose size and athleticism could present a real threat to Murphy's PT as well.

[sagegrouse]

Aside from Zoubek's unlikely emergence in the stretch run of his senior year, how many examples are there of guys buried on K's bench in their first few years who became meaningful pieces of the machine? Maybe Melchionni or Dockery? McClure? Granted, there is a red shirt year in there but it just feels like his window is shrinking quickly.

OK, here's the scoop. I did approximately 4:30 of research (that's minutes and seconds) and came up with the following list of freshman no-shows who made (or did not make) later contributions.

Yes to Melchionni and McClure. No to Dockery: Sean averaged ten MPG as a freshman in 2003.

Yes to Nate James: he played only 41 minutes as a freshman in 1998 and helped lead us to a national championship as a senior.

Yes to Casey Sanders: played only 144 minutes as a freshman. As a senior in 2003, he was 18 MPG, 4.6 PPG and 5.2 RPG.

No to Nick Horvath. He averaged 8.4 MPG as a freshman, incuding a 3-pointer that beat DePaul in OT. He never got much above that for the rest of his career, averaging only 6.4 MPG as a fifth-year senior. (He got a medical redshirt for his sophomore year.)

sagegrouse

[CDu]

Yes to Nate James: he played only 41 minutes as a freshman in 1998 and helped lead us to a national championship as a senior.

Actually, that's not quite correct. James was actually a sophomore in the 1997-1998 season. He played only 6 games during that season before taking a medical redshirt. As a true freshman, he averaged 8.5 mpg in 17 games, with those limited game numbers a result of injury (he didn't start playing until mid-January as a freshman).

As a redshirt sophomore, and finally healthy again, James was stuck behind a redshirt senior Langdon, a junior Carrawell, and a lottery pick freshman Maggette, yet still logged 14.7 mpg. He was then a starter for both his redshirt junior and redshirt senior seasons.

Regardless, I'd say that James is perhaps the high-end of hope while Pocius may be toward the lower end of hope.

[Saratoga2]

I really expect the pace of the game this years team will be significantly higher than that played in the last few years. With that, I exxpect Tyler to be doing a lot of subbing at PG as the guys will be running a lot more. That will also apply to all the players, so I expect we will see more of Murphy and others than would have been expected with a slower paced team that we have gotten used to.

[Kedsy]

It's certainly possible. But I can't help but think that we'll see the same minutes logjam facing Murphy every year. Jefferson is likely to remain ahead of Murphy at PF for their entire time at Duke. Hood is probably ahead this year at SF, and we have a chance to land Winslow next year. And there's always Ojeleye, whose size and athleticism could present a real threat to Murphy's PT as well.

You could be right. With a low-ish rated recruit like Alex (49th in the RSCI after he re-classified), I think playing time at Duke is largely based on who's ahead of you. That said, by the time he's a senior, and possibly junior as well, I suspect Alex has a decent chance of breaking into the rotation. Even Pocius, if he'd stayed for his senior year, would have had a decent chance of breaking into the rotation in 2009-10.

[OldPhiKap]

Aside from Zoubek's unlikely emergence in the stretch run of his senior year, how many examples are there of guys buried on K's bench in their first few years who became meaningful pieces of the machine? Maybe Melchionni or Dockery? McClure? Granted, there is a red shirt year in there but it just feels like his window is shrinking quickly.

If by "meaningful pieces of the machine" you mean part of the 7-8 man prime rotation by the time they were seniors, I think the list is even larger than the names above. I would define "meaningful" even broader than that, personally.

I hope to see more minutes for Alex, too, but he was behind Ryan and Mason down low last year. Jiggy then came in because he led the team in charges. That left minutes to split between Amile and Alex, and the coaches obviously thought that Amile was ahead of Alex.

I am not ready to relegate Alex to some second tier contributor because he had an All-ACC player (Mason) and our most valuable, versatile player (Ryan) as seniors ahead of him. Plus a junior big body who is not afraid to mix it up inside.

As is evident from the other threads on next year's team, everyone can score. What group plays the best defense? That is the key question. Alex's path to playing time is neither complicated nor secret -- become a leader on the defensive end. If he does that, he gets plenty of minutes.

[CDu]

If by "meaningful pieces of the machine" you mean part of the 7-8 man prime rotation by the time they were seniors, I think the list is even larger than the names above. I would define "meaningful" even broader than that, personally.

I hope to see more minutes for Alex, too, but he was behind Ryan and Mason down low last year. Jiggy then came in because he led the team in charges. That left minutes to split between Amile and Alex, and the coaches obviously thought that Amile was ahead of Alex.

I am not ready to relegate Alex to some second tier contributor because he had an All-ACC player (Mason) and our most valuable, versatile player (Ryan) as seniors ahead of him. Plus a junior big body who is not afraid to mix it up inside.

As is evident from the other threads on next year's team, everyone can score. What group plays the best defense? That is the key question. Alex's path to playing time is neither complicated nor secret -- become a leader on the defensive end. If he does that, he gets plenty of minutes.

I don't think it is accurate to say that Murphy was behind Mason or Kelly last year. Based on everything I've read about the kid, he's been viewed as a SF. He was discussed as a possible starter at SF as a freshman before redshirting. He was referenced early and often as a major minutes guy at SF last year. And when he did play, it was usually at SF (aside from some rare instances when he played PF while Kelly was hurt).

Now, it may be that Murphy's best opportunity for PT in the coming years will be at PF or even C. But his game is currently a SF's game, and he's been competing for minutes at SF over the past two years.

[Billy Dat]

If by "meaningful pieces of the machine" you mean part of the 7-8 man prime rotation by the time they were seniors, I think the list is even larger than the names above. I would define "meaningful" even broader than that, personally.

You are correct in my intended definition being an everyday rotation player, which usually means top 7. "Meaningful" was a poor choice of words because every kid that commits to the program and does their best is a meaningful part of the team.

[OldPhiKap]

I don't think it is accurate to say that Murphy was behind Mason or Kelly last year. Based on everything I've read about the kid, he's been viewed as a SF. He was discussed as a possible starter at SF as a freshman before redshirting. He was referenced early and often as a major minutes guy at SF last year. And when he did play, it was usually at SF (aside from some rare instances when he played PF while Kelly was hurt).

Now, it may be that Murphy's best opportunity for PT in the coming years will be at PF or even C. But his game is currently a SF's game, and he's been competing for minutes at SF over the past two years.

That may be, CDu, I am basing this on the comments that he should/may/can log real minutes as center next year.

He seems like a PF to me, much like Ryan. A little quicker than Ryan, actually.

If we are looking at the sf position (usual Duke disclaimer bout we don't play position, etc.) and the backcourt in general, it's still kind of the same problem. Clearly, Quinn and Seth were going to start and TT is the first off the bench. That leaves the question of whether Alex should have gotten more of Sheed's time. Sheed started like gangbusters ( I think he was freshman of the week a few times early) and clearly is one of our best players. Should Alex have gotten some of his minutes when Sheed was slumping? Perhaps. I think K decided that if Rasheed needed to come out, it was an opportunity to get TT in there with Quinn and Seth -- small, quick ball.

According to StatSheet.com, Alex played in 31 of 36 games and averaged 6.3 mpg. That is higher than I recall. If true, though, that made him ninth in mpg behind the main six, then Jiggy and Amile tied at 12.7. Which puts him back where I started -- that between he, Jiggy and Amile, Jiggy filled a role the other two didn't and Amile may have been ahead of Alex in practice.

Either way, it's all good. I think Alex has a bright future and an opportunity to compete for minutes. If he works hard and has a good attitude, his time to shine will come.

[OldPhiKap]

You are correct in my intended definition being an everyday rotation player, which usually means top 7. "Meaningful" was a poor choice of words because every kid that commits to the program and does their best is a meaningful part of the team.

Good deal, we are on the same page my friend. OPK.

[nmduke2001]

Not sure where to put this so I'll put it here.

I follow several of the players on Twitter. If what they tweet is true; Josh, Amile and Alex are working out incredibly hard over the summer. Working out even harder are Quinn and Dre. These kids seem really hungry for next season.

[Bluedog]

You could be right. With a low-ish rated recruit like Alex (49th in the RSCI after he re-classified), I think playing time at Duke is largely based on who's ahead of you.

Except wasn't he ranked around 15 in the class of 2012? I would say most top 15 recruits that come to Duke end up playing decent minutes (although not all, obviously). I realize he came a year early, but that was simply to get stronger and improve other aspects of his game, so you'd think if anything, coming a year earlier would have helped him get into the rotation. In any event, I hope Murph finds his place, demonstrates solid D, and gets miuntes, but I have a feeling it's going to be like Pocius all over again - where his athleticism on offense is clear and the fans want to see him in the game, but just based on the other guys that we have available and the necessity for solid D, his minutes may not be that plentiful. I hope he works hard and proves me wrong though - it's certainly possible.

Edit: He was ranked 11th in the country by both Scout and Rivals while part of the Class of 2012.

[Henderson]

Wasn't it Rodney Hood who said of Murphy (paraphrasing here), "No offense, but he's the most athletic white player I've had to go up against." Maybe someone can dig up the exact quote. Murph has some serious skills. We've seen them. I predict a so-so year this year, better than last, then a breakout in 2014. He needs confidence, and becoming an upper classman with leadership responsibilities will bring that.

I just hope he doesn't transfer in a thirst for PT.

[FerryFor50]

I just hope he doesn't transfer in a thirst for PT.

Other than conjecture, I don't see any evidence that this is even remotely possible.

Murphy himself has laughed off those types of rumors.

[CDu]

Other than conjecture, I don't see any evidence that this is even remotely possible.

Murphy himself has laughed off those types of rumors.

Yeah, I'd be shocked to see him transfer and give up a year of eligibility. It's possible he could, after 4 years, graduate and go play his grad year somewhere else. But I wouldn't even begin to speculate about that possibility 2 years out.

I think that Marshall and Murphy, by redshirting as freshman, implicitly showed their commitment to being here for at least 4 years, through thick and through thin.

[Henderson]

I remember the same conversation about Bill McCaffrey. He downplayed any suggestion that he'd transfer. Then he went to Vanderbilt when he saw Hurley, Grant Hill, Thomas Hill, and Antonio Lang cumulatively potentially cutting into his PT. [If you have Hurley and GH at the 1 and 2, how much PT for a 2 shooter?). Word at the time was that he really wanted to showcase his skills and thought he might be smothered by talent in the year that followed. And McCaffrey was Duke's second-leading scorer in the 1991 title run, scoring 16 against KU in the finals. I'm not offering any speculation, just saying we don't know.

Bummer for Bill that he missed out on a 2nd consecutive natty. But he got a LOT of PT at Vandy, set some record there, and was the SEC co-player of the year one year I think (with Jamal Mashburn?). Maybe a good move for him, because Duke's backcourt the following year was crowded with talent. Hard to say. But it was a shame to lose him, because I think he could have competed well for PT in his junior and senior years.

[Henderson]

I think that Marshall and Murphy, by redshirting as freshman, implicitly showed their commitment to being here for at least 4 years, through thick and through thin.

Seems like a non sequitur to me. Don't players, like the rest of us, evaluate their situation year to year to decide what is best for them in the long term?

[Billy Dat]

I remember the same conversation about Bill McCaffrey. He downplayed any suggestion that he'd transfer. Then he went to Vanderbilt when he saw Hurley, Grant Hill, Thomas Hill, and Antonio Lang cumulatively potentially cutting into his PT. [If you have Hurley and GH at the 1 and 2, how much PT for a 2 shooter?). Word at the time was that he really wanted to showcase his skills and thought he might be smothered by talent in the year that followed. And McCaffrey was Duke's second-leading scorer in the 1991 title run, scoring 16 against KU in the finals. I'm not offering any speculation, just saying we don't know.

Bummer for Bill that he missed out on a 2nd consecutive natty. But he got a LOT of PT at Vandy, set some record there, and was the SEC co-player of the year one year I think (with Jamal Mashburn?). Maybe a good move for him, because Duke's backcourt the following year was crowded with talent. Hard to say. But it was a shame to lose him, because I think he could have competed well for PT in his junior and senior years.

Granted the K era that McCaffrey came up in was eons ago, but you raise an interesting point that is the yang to the yin we have been discussing with Murphy. I was shocked when McCaffrey left because he was an established rotation player. Granted, he thought his best route to the pros was as a point guard, and he wasn't beating out Hurley. But, how often has someone who is already an established rotation guy see his minutes significantly drop over the course of his career? Without looking it up, I can think of Taymon Domzalski, who just got buried when the insane 1996 and 1997 recruiting classes showed up, and Greg Paulus who just flat out lost his spot. Other than them, guys who are in the mix tend to stay there, barring injury or academic probation (that's for you, Ricky P!).

[Highlander]

I remember the same conversation about Bill McCaffrey. He downplayed any suggestion that he'd transfer. Then he went to Vanderbilt when he saw Hurley, Grant Hill, Thomas Hill, and Antonio Lang cumulatively potentially cutting into his PT. [If you have Hurley and GH at the 1 and 2, how much PT for a 2 shooter?). Word at the time was that he really wanted to showcase his skills and thought he might be smothered by talent in the year that followed. And McCaffrey was Duke's second-leading scorer in the 1991 title run, scoring 16 against KU in the finals. I'm not offering any speculation, just saying we don't know.

Bummer for Bill that he missed out on a 2nd consecutive natty. But he got a LOT of PT at Vandy, set some record there, and was the SEC co-player of the year one year I think (with Jamal Mashburn?). Maybe a good move for him, because Duke's backcourt the following year was crowded with talent. Hard to say. But it was a shame to lose him, because I think he could have competed well for PT in his junior and senior years.

I remembered that McCaffrey thought his future was at PG, and with Hurley firmly entrenched at that position at Duke, he knew he would get no run there and have to fight for minutes at SG. It was a shame; he was a heady, quality player. I remember one of his moves on a fast break was to just stop in the middle of the lane and wait for contact, then throw it up. He was a superb FT shooter, so instead of taking the basket he always went for the 2 FT's and the foul.

Missed him in '92, but always understood why he left and couldn't blame him.

[Henderson]

Granted the K era that McCaffrey came up in was eons ago, but you raise an interesting point that is the yang to the yin we have been discussing with Murphy. I was shocked when McCaffrey left because he was an established rotation player. Granted, he thought his best route to the pros was as a point guard, and he wasn't beating out Hurley. But, how often has someone who is already an established rotation guy see his minutes significantly drop over the course of his career? Without looking it up, I can think of Taymon Domzalski, who just got buried when the insane 1996 and 1997 recruiting classes showed up, and Greg Paulus who just flat out lost his spot. Other than them, guys who are in the mix tend to stay there, barring injury or academic probation (that's for you, Ricky P!).

The worry I have about Murph, his head, his family, and his hope for an NBA career is that he's NOT in the mix. At least not so far. And with his talent, he could showcase his skills elsewhere. I don't think that would be a good move for him, because as I've said, I see him as a leader with a breakout year in 2014. But what if we land Winslow for 2014? Hood may be gone, Parker may be gone, but he'd still likely have Amile and Semi in the mix. I'm not suggesting he should leave; I'm arguing that he would be much better off staying. But I don't see it as the off-the-table scenario others have thrown up. I'm a huge Murph supporter, and I've already stated my prediction for a breakout junior year. But young people can be fickle and/or swayed by advisors.

If established players like McCaffrey leave, what does that say about talented low-PT players? In the current environment, everyone has a sick relative he needs to be closer to.

[-jk]

The worry I have about Murph, his head, his family, and his hope for an NBA career is that he's NOT in the mix. At least not so far. And with his talent, he could showcase his skills elsewhere. I don't think that would be a good move for him, because as I've said, I see him as a leader with a breakout year in 2014. But what if we land Winslow for 2014? Hood may be gone, Parker may be gone, but he'd still likely have Amile and Semi in the mix. I'm not suggesting he should leave; I'm arguing that he would be much better off staying. But I don't see it as the off-the-table scenario others have thrown up. I'm a huge Murph supporter, and I've already stated my prediction for a breakout junior year. But young people can be fickle and/or swayed by advisors.

If established players like McCaffrey leave, what does that say about talented low-PT players?

As was mentioned, he's already burned a year. You get five years to play four. If he transfers, he sits another year and ultimately gets 3 years of play (unless he finds an exceptional circumstance for the NCAA). I don't see him going pro early.

Of course, if he graduates before those four-in-five years are done, he could find a school with a grad program duke doesn't offer and not lose a year (cf duke big man thread)...

-jk

[OldPhiKap]

No offense to anyone unthread, but I really get tired of these threads that suggest soemeone who did not get a ton of minutes AS A FRESHMAN may transfer. I know we live in an ADD-addled, I want it all now world, but good gravy this is ridiculous.

Let the kid develop. Have patience. If that is not possible, at least keep harmful speculation out of the discussion.

Murphy appears talented, and as someone up thread noted he came a year early to help his development. Let the kid run his own race.

Rant. Grumble. Keep off my lawn, with your hippity-hop music. Wheeze.

Sigh.



Edit to add: this is not directed towards those discussing the mechanics of transfer, or even Billy Mac. Billy told K he wanted to play pg, and K told him that it was Bobby's position unless Billy could beat him out. Billy went on to a good career, we won another NC. All good.

[Kedsy]

Except wasn't he ranked around 15 in the class of 2012? I would say most top 15 recruits that come to Duke end up playing decent minutes (although not all, obviously). I realize he came a year early, but that was simply to get stronger and improve other aspects of his game, so you'd think if anything, coming a year earlier would have helped him get into the rotation. In any event, I hope Murph finds his place, demonstrates solid D, and gets miuntes, but I have a feeling it's going to be like Pocius all over again - where his athleticism on offense is clear and the fans want to see him in the game, but just based on the other guys that we have available and the necessity for solid D, his minutes may not be that plentiful. I hope he works hard and proves me wrong though - it's certainly possible.

Edit: He was ranked 11th in the country by both Scout and Rivals while part of the Class of 2012.

Yeah, I have wondered about his early top 15 (or 11 or whatever) ranking before he re-classified. For one thing, he classified fairly early, even before the summer RSCI came out, and players tend to move a lot from really early rankings. For another, when the top guys re-classify they usually still slot in well in their new class (see, e.g., Andre Drummond, Nerlens Noel, Andrew Wiggins, Noah Vonleh, Dakari Johnson, Joel Embiid, etc.). Since Alex didn't, I strongly suspect he would have dropped a lot in his original class as well. Maybe not all the way to 49, but probably somewhere in the 30s (like Matt Jones, who dropped from 20 to 34, although my guess is Alex could have suffered an even bigger drop). We'll never know for sure, of course, but I don't think you can count him as a top 15 (or top 11) recruit when developing expectations for playing time. Especially since his trajectory at Duke has been similar to a guy in the 40s.

[Newton_14]

One thing people forget, likely due to the redshirt season, is Alex just completed his Freshman season. A season in which he averaged 6.3 mpg. Below are other players who averaged a similar number their Freshman season, and how their mpg played out year over year. I think it unwise to give up on a player as talented as Alex after just one season. I also, like OPK find it unfair to Alex to not take him at his word regarding transfer. Bill McCaffrey left for one reason only. It had nothing to do with a crowded backcourt. He was already in the rotation and would have played mega minutes his last two years. He left because he and his dad wanted him playing exclusively at the Point and that wasn't happening with 11 on the team. Let's leave that speculation with Alex in the grave where it belongs.

Anyway just a few sample players with similar mpg as Alex as Freshman and how their races were ran. If you looked throughout K's career at Duke there are likely many more positive examples to draw from.

Marty Clark- Mpg: Fr 4.5, So 7.9, Jr 18.8, Sr 21.1
Ryan Kelly- Mpg: Fr 6.5, So 20.1, Jr 25.9, Sr 28.9
Miles Plumlee- Mpg: Fr 6.9, So 16.4, Jr 17.0, Sr 20.5
Josh Hairston- Mpg: Fr 6.1, So 8.5, Jr 12.7, Sr TBD
Lee Melchionni- Mpg: Fr 3.4, So 5.4, Jr 21.7, Sr 19.9
Carmen Wallace- Mpg: Fr 2.6, So 5.3, Jr 20.7, Sr 12.1
Nate James- Mpg: Fr 8.5 (17 games) RS-FR 6.8 (6 games) RS-So 14.7, RS-Jr 28.5, RS-SR 27.8
Casey Sanders- Mpg: Fr 5.8, So 10.7, Jr 7.8, Sr 17.8
John Smith- Mpg: Fr 5.1, So 22.5, Jr 15.7, Sr 19.9

Edit: Forgot to add, Marty Clark is my personal all time favorite in the category of "watching a non-star caliber player develop over his 4 year career at Duke". For me it was just a neat thing to watch play out over the course of 4 years.

[CDu]

I remember the same conversation about Bill McCaffrey. He downplayed any suggestion that he'd transfer. Then he went to Vanderbilt when he saw Hurley, Grant Hill, Thomas Hill, and Antonio Lang cumulatively potentially cutting into his PT. [If you have Hurley and GH at the 1 and 2, how much PT for a 2 shooter?). Word at the time was that he really wanted to showcase his skills and thought he might be smothered by talent in the year that followed. And McCaffrey was Duke's second-leading scorer in the 1991 title run, scoring 16 against KU in the finals. I'm not offering any speculation, just saying we don't know.

Bummer for Bill that he missed out on a 2nd consecutive natty. But he got a LOT of PT at Vandy, set some record there, and was the SEC co-player of the year one year I think (with Jamal Mashburn?). Maybe a good move for him, because Duke's backcourt the following year was crowded with talent. Hard to say. But it was a shame to lose him, because I think he could have competed well for PT in his junior and senior years.

There is a glaring difference. Murphy has redshirted, while McCaffrey had not. Therefore, a transfer would cost him a year of play. So he would sit out a year AND lose a year of eligibility. If he were to do so after this season, then he would have only one year left. Seems like a big gamble. If he instead plays through his redshirt junior year and graduated, he could then go wherever he wants and play without losing a year.

That is why the redshirt is such a big deal. Now Murphy would have to weigh the choice of losing a year of eligibility if he transfers. That makes him MUCH less likely to do so. At least until after he graduates, at which point he could do what he pleases.

[Turtleboy]

If established players like McCaffrey leave, what does that say about talented low-PT players? In the current environment, everyone has a sick relative he needs to be closer to.Holy cow! That's a bit cynical, eh? So Eliot's mother wasn't dying?

[CDu]

Seems like a non sequitur to me. Don't players, like the rest of us, evaluate their situation year to year to decide what is best for them in the long term?

I'll clarify: both Murphy and Plumlee have redshirted. They have also both played for one season. That leaves them with just 3 years to play 3 more seasons. If they decide to transfer, that eats up one of those years (meaning they'd only get to play 2 more seasons).

As such, it makes transferring an absolute last-resort situation. They REALLY have to think that they'd be better off somewhere else if they want to transfer.

Also, note that neither transferred this offseason. If they were to transfer next offseason, they'd lose a year of participation and have only 1 year remaining. So their decision next summer would be:
1. do I transfer and lose a year of eligibility in hopes that wherever I go I can get one good year in? or
2. do I stay and play my redshirt junior year at Duke, graduate, and then decide what I want to do for my last year of eligibility.

Given that they've already redshirted, it seems HIGHLY unlikely that they'd decide to transfer and give away that year of eligibility. And since they stuck around for this coming year, I doesn't really make sense to transfer, because the lost year of eligibility leaves them with the same number of seasons of play at the subsequent school as if they'd just done a grad year elsewhere.

I'd be absolutely shocked if either of those two guys transferred over the next couple of years.

[Furniture]

Not sure if anyone else posted this but the Murphy "Summer Grind" video on Duke Planet says it all to me. He ain't going nowhere!

[Billy Dat]

Not sure if anyone else posted this but the Murphy "Summer Grind" video on Duke Planet says it all to me. He ain't going nowhere!

Good call, I just watched it
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QBy5WwwpwiY

That's some serious ink he has on his chest! (40 second mark)

[TruBlu]

Good call, I just watched it
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QBy5WwwpwiY

That's some serious ink he has on his chest! (40 second mark)

Does anyone (besides me) think that Alex looks somewhat like Bobby Hurley in some of the camera angles in this video? (Yes, I did have my glasses on.)

[Billy Dat]

Does anyone (besides me) think that Alex looks somewhat like Bobby Hurley in some of the camera angles in this video? (Yes, I did have my glasses on.)

Good call. Maybe we need to have a "Separated at Birth" thread, but that would likely get shut down rather quickly.

[BismarckDuke]

I have said this before, but... We as posters really don't know much, yet some seem to be opinionated, very at times. But it is what we don't know that makes us look like fools later when we choose to pontificate now.

I'll be honest, I haven't thought much about Alex getting a lot of playing time this coming season. But after seeing this, he sounds very mature and seems to be working very hard to get playing time. This has changed my thinking of him and his playing time.

Funny thing is, he might look like Bobby but in watching this video he reminds me a lot of Ryan Kelly.

It is raining 3's = Cook, Rasheed, Andre, Hood, Parker and Alex, wow. Did I miss anyone? And Ty for a few and maybe Jones.

I just can't imagine Duke having an off shooting night.

[wilko]

I just can't imagine Duke having an off shooting night.

Dont be a jinx man...

[flyingdutchdevil]

I just can't imagine Duke having an off shooting night.

The thing is, I just don't think that this team will 'live and die' by the three, unlike a few years in the past. Firstly, as you stated, we do have a plethora of excellent shooters, and chances are that not all of them are going to have an off-night (the Villanova game still haunts me). Secondly, this is a team that has a lot of players who can take their man off the dribble. I think Rasheed showed plenty of promise last year, and, as they say, the best thing about freshman is that they are going to be sophomores. Quinn doesn't need to find his own shot, and he did penetrate plenty of times and will only get better at this (which will open up a lot of players). Hood, from what we've heard, is unbelievable with the ball on the floor. And Parker - well, when you're the most heralded high schooler since Lebron (until Wiggins reclassified), you got a lot going for you.

This team will struggle from the post, unless Parker and Hood turn out to be ridiculous post players (who knows). We may lose points from a true 5, but we'll make up for it by easy points in transition, open 3s, and super fast play. If Andre doesn't get at least 3 open 3s a game, then something is completely wrong.

[jipops]

The thing is, I just don't think that this team will 'live and die' by the three

Hopefully just live. :)

I do think there will be a hoisting from 3 pt land at an exceptionally high rate next season. I mean it should be a strength right? Hopefully we'll see guys drive a lot too though from a spread floor as we should have a number of perimeter guys capable of getting to the lane and either finishing (Sheed, Hood, maybe Parker, maybe Murphy) or dishing off (Sheed, Cook).

[Henderson]

The offensive potential is pretty awesome, and Murph's potential contribution there underscores that fact. But at some point, we're going to need to defend a big 5 well. There have been teams in the past that were very good but just didn't have an answer to another team's dominant big, where the strategy was to keep throwing it into him.

[wilko]

But at some point, we're going to need to defend a big 5 well. There have been teams in the past that were very good but just didn't have an answer to another team's dominant big, where the strategy was to keep throwing it into him.

I'm encouraged by the fact we have waves and waves of guys to GET THE OPPOSING big(s) in foul trouble. Get em off the floor...

[SupaDave]

I have said this before, but... We as posters really don't know much, yet some seem to be opinionated, very at times. But it is what we don't know that makes us look like fools later when we choose to pontificate now.

You kidding me? I'm always right!!! :rolleyes:

[BismarckDuke]

Dont be a jinx man...

LOL, not to worry. If I had that power, the Tar Holes would not win another game, ever.

I do believe it will rain 3's, from the group Duke has. I also know that once the 3's drop, a lot of offensive possibilities will open up. But until the 3's drop, those lanes will be tight.

I agree, Duke will be hurt at the post position, even if Marshall is able to play. But as you said, with the 3's and fast break points, Duke will be able to control a lot of games.

The question is, can they get good enough at the 3's and fast break points to be a national tile contender? We won't know until we see the team in action. It is just my feeling the 3's will be a big part of Duke's game next year.

[Ichabod Drain]

Funny thing is, he might look like Bobby but in watching this video he reminds me a lot of Ryan Kelly.
.

In what ways does he remind you of Ryan Kelly? His game really isn't anything like Ryan's. He is not as tall and he's not built like Ryan either.

[wilko]

LOL, not to worry. If I had that power, the Tar Heels would not win another game, ever.

Heard that, brother... exact same sentiment. ALTHO - I don't mind them being universally known as a "Girls Soccer School". Its a great way to irritate their fans.



I do believe it will rain 3's, from the group Duke has. I also know that once the 3's drop, a lot of offensive possibilities will open up. But until the 3's drop, those lanes will be tight. I agree, Duke will be hurt at the post position, even if Marshall is able to play. But as you said, with the 3's and fast break points, Duke will be able to control a lot of games.

Its a mixed bag - We have options which is a great thing!
I think we need to establish as a SOLID 3pt threat. Any player, any game. When the opposing D honors THAT threat, we should have excellent spacing more often than not. Between Hood, Parker and Sheed I am extremely hopeful they can create (either for themselves or someone else in better position) and convert.

As you say we wont know for certain until we do know - but I think this group has drivers and slashers which has been a bit of a missing dynamic recently. If we play with discipline, maturity and heart - Its going to be hard for an opposing D to not be worn down over 40min of play.



The question is, can they get good enough at the 3's and fast break points to be a national tile contender? We won't know until we see the team in action. It is just my feeling the 3's will be a big part of Duke's game next year.

The 3 is always a big part of our game. But we don't HAVE to rely on that exclusively for points, I believe. Ball pressure to deny the pass, backtaps, blocks and steals... I expect an energetic presence on D. And a Swarming Offense with threats from multiple positions and players.

As always time will tell

[gus]

Good call, I just watched it
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QBy5WwwpwiY

That's some serious ink he has on his chest! (40 second mark)

"The season started in April".

I love that attitude.

[BismarckDuke]

The 3 is always a big part of our game. But we don't HAVE to rely on that exclusively for points, I believe. Ball pressure to deny the pass, backtaps, blocks and steals... I expect an energetic presence on D. And a Swarming Offense with threats from multiple positions and players.

As always time will tell

I think this team will be an inside out team. Not the traditional inside out but show that 2 or 3 guys are hitting from the 3. Make the opponents come out and give them a pump fake and take it to the rim. See the post, on offense, won't be an issue because with that play the post won't be down low. The post player is going to need to learn to play outside and read the play, follow it to the rim and get some easy rebounds. Any outside misses result in long rebounds, so the post isn't an issue there either, anyone can get those rebounds.

As for defense, I just believe Coach will work to get the team to focus on pressing the ball and cut off the passing lanes, they will be fine. But that is if they buy into the idea they need to do those things. Heck I even think having Tyler guard their post player would work. Just have him bite them down around the knees and ankles and they will come to his size.

[BismarckDuke]

Maybe that is more of an "outside in" team.

[DukeAlumBS]

I still have high hopes for Murphy. A lot of talent there. The dunk against NC State was a small glimpse of what Murph is capable of. I think confidence and court awareness are two of his biggest weaknesses to date. In small stretches last year (that same State game being one of them) he defended the opposing PF very well inlcuding short stints against CJ Leslie. Still needs to improve a bit with lateral quickness on the wing for defense, and making better decisions with the ball. He can drive and score pretty effectively when attacking the rim.

The biggest problem this year is depth at his position. Hood, Rasheed, Andre, and Tyler can all play the 3 well enough to satisfy K, and Hood, Amile, Josh, and Jabari can all likely play the 4 well enough to satisfy K. That's 4 guys to beat out for time at the 3, and 4 guys to beat out for time at the 4. I definitely think Alex will get more minutes this year than he did last year and will help this team. I don't see him breaking into that 20-25+ mpg range until his Jr season though. I am still counting on 2 very solid/highlevel season's from him in his Jr/Sr seasons. Still believe he has All ACC caliber potential if he can put it all together.

I agree with you Newton, that dunk against NCSU is still on my mind. I feel he will come in and maybe challenge a starting role as well as Dawkins, IMO.
Have nice day my friends, Jimmy

[flyingdutchdevil]

I agree with you Newton, that dunk against NCSU is still on my mind. I feel he will come in and maybe challenge a starting role as well as Dawkins, IMO.
Have nice day my friends, Jimmy

Gotta disagree. Robocop may contribute greatly next year, but I just don't see him starting (and don't see Dawkins starting) as all. I think we can all establish that, barring injury, Cook is starting. He is the only pure 1 and clearly proved himself last year. Our best backcourt defender and potential 1st Team All-American is, IMO, Rasheed. I can't see him not starting either. Parker, at the 4, is a beast. Coach K has never not started a top 5 recruit and, given our lack of size, Jabari will clearly start. Many, especially the more respected posters, have commented on Hood and his unique skill set (size, ball control, speed) will create insane mismatches at the 3. I also see him starting, and I don't think his position is threatened (at least right now). The only position that is really up in the air is the 5, and neither Robocop nor Dawkins can play that position.

The only way that Robocop or Dawkins starts is if Coach K thinks that Parker should start at the 5 and Hood at the 4. That would open up the 3, allowing Robocop or Dawkins to come in. However, given our lack of size in the post as is, I do not see this happening at all.

[OldPhiKap]

Gotta disagree. Robocop may contribute greatly next year, but I just don't see him starting (and don't see Dawkins starting) as all. I think we can all establish that, barring injury, Cook is starting. He is the only pure 1 and clearly proved himself last year. Our best backcourt defender and potential 1st Team All-American is, IMO, Rasheed. I can't see him not starting either. Parker, at the 4, is a beast. Coach K has never not started a top 5 recruit and, given our lack of size, Jabari will clearly start. Many, especially the more respected posters, have commented on Hood and his unique skill set (size, ball control, speed) will create insane mismatches at the 3. I also see him starting, and I don't think his position is threatened (at least right now). The only position that is really up in the air is the 5, and neither Robocop nor Dawkins can play that position.

The only way that Robocop or Dawkins starts is if Coach K thinks that Parker should start at the 5 and Hood at the 4. That would open up the 3, allowing Robocop or Dawkins to come in. However, given our lack of size in the post as is, I do not see this happening at all.

Two variables (although I generally agree based on what little I know from the outside):

1. No one knows how Dawkins will be. I love Sheed, but it is possible that senior Dawkins comes in with a sick focus. If there is a tie between the two, I think K gives Dawkins the nod. And again, I think that Sheed is a potential lottery pick when he goes, this is not a slight to him. It's big props to what Dre may be able to do.

2. Peter Weller is in the new Star Trek movie, and is bad to the bone. Robocop rises.

[gep]

[/B]1. No one knows how Dawkins will be. I love Sheed, but it is possible that senior Dawkins comes in with a sick focus. If there is a tie between the two, I think K gives Dawkins the nod. And again, I think that Sheed is a potential lottery pick when he goes, this is not a slight to him. It's big props to what Dre may be able to do.

Didn't Scheyer go from freshman-starter to sophomore 6th man? If so... we know how that turned out :cool: Maybe the same path for Rasheed....

[flyingdutchdevil]

Didn't Scheyer go from freshman-starter to sophomore 6th man? If so... we know how that turned out :cool: Maybe the same path for Rasheed....

I just don't see if with Rasheed. He is our best defensive player who hit the freshman wall last season. With maturity, a year of development, added strength, and better ball control, I think Rasheed will both our highest scoring player and best defensive player.

And I don't mean any disrespect to Dawkins. He'll be our best 3pt shooter, bar none (unless Matt Jones has something to say about that). But I really like the idea of Dawkins as instant offense off the bench. Furthermore, while Dawkins has had a year to work on his skills, I'm not sure that he has the defensive ability that Rasheed has. And we know Coach K's love in insane, tough defense.

[superdave]

http://www.myfoxny.com/story/23525690/detroits-robocop-statue-to-be-unveiled-next-year

[flyingdutchdevil]

http://www.myfoxny.com/story/23525690/detroits-robocop-statue-to-be-unveiled-next-year

Singler must be pissed an Alex Murphy statue appeared in Detroit before his. I mean, same number, same height, same position...Singler got shafted!

[SupaDave]

I'll clarify: both Murphy and Plumlee have redshirted. They have also both played for one season. That leaves them with just 3 years to play 3 more seasons. If they decide to transfer, that eats up one of those years (meaning they'd only get to play 2 more seasons).

As such, it makes transferring an absolute last-resort situation. They REALLY have to think that they'd be better off somewhere else if they want to transfer.

Also, note that neither transferred this offseason. If they were to transfer next offseason, they'd lose a year of participation and have only 1 year remaining. So their decision next summer would be:
1. do I transfer and lose a year of eligibility in hopes that wherever I go I can get one good year in? or
2. do I stay and play my redshirt junior year at Duke, graduate, and then decide what I want to do for my last year of eligibility.

Given that they've already redshirted, it seems HIGHLY unlikely that they'd decide to transfer and give away that year of eligibility. And since they stuck around for this coming year, I doesn't really make sense to transfer, because the lost year of eligibility leaves them with the same number of seasons of play at the subsequent school as if they'd just done a grad year elsewhere.

I'd be absolutely shocked if either of those two guys transferred over the next couple of years.

Crazy right?

[CDu]

Crazy right?

Yeah, it's pretty crazy. However, it's slightly more understandable now, given that he has been beaten out by at least Jefferson, Sulaimon, and Jones, and perhaps Ojeleye as well, and we've already added at least one top-10 recruit at his position for next year.

That being said, it sure does say a lot that he was willing to likely give up a year of eligibility in order to get more playing time. He must REALLY feel like he has no shot at PT over the next couple of years to make that decision and leave himself with likely 1.5 years of eligibility.